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PurpleDawg

2019 Bowl Mania Pick'em!

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10 hours ago, Duquesne Frog said:

The B1G is absolutely killing DUSHEE ...

 

DUSHEE sucks in important big games, it appears.

 

Time to add a machine learning module?

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2 hours ago, NewfoundlandFreeFrog said:

 

DUSHEE sucks in important big games, it appears.

 

Time to add a machine learning module?

Time to quit AI and use the old noodle.

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The killers were Wiscy and OhioState.  I still think Wiscy was fine as a high confidence pick ... they had no business losing that game.  They spotted Oregon 2, arguably 3 TDs and only lost by 2, and outgained Ore by a ton. 

 

The confidence in Ohio St. was less defensible, but Ohio State had several opportunities to put that game away too.

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4 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

The killers were Wiscy and OhioState.  I still think Wiscy was fine as a high confidence pick ... they had no business losing that game.  They spotted Oregon 2, arguably 3 TDs and only lost by 2, and outgained Ore by a ton. 

 

The confidence in Ohio St. was less defensible, but Ohio State had several opportunities to put that game away too.

About the only 2 I got right.  I suck at picking games.

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41 minutes ago, Zebra Frog said:

About the only 2 I got right.  I suck at picking games.

I do pretty well when I look at the preview link in the far left column of each week's Pick'em grid. There's a lot of information on each team and some people who are way smarter than me do a lot of work figuring out who should win. If I don't get too cocky thinking I know better and go against the advice there, I'm usually ok. The team that's favored there doesn't always win, but I bet 80% of the time it does. I also pay attention to Desmond Howard's picks on GameDay. He's better than the others, I think.

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And with one game, the Fightin' Soliches vault DUSHEE into 2nd place.  I think black it out has got it sewn up, tho ....

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The Troll has now passed me and he has more points remaining.  It's not looking good....

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On 1/3/2020 at 3:59 PM, PurpleDawg said:

I do pretty well when I look at the preview link in the far left column of each week's Pick'em grid. There's a lot of information on each team and some people who are way smarter than me do a lot of work figuring out who should win. If I don't get too cocky thinking I know better and go against the advice there, I'm usually ok. The team that's favored there doesn't always win, but I bet 80% of the time it does. I also pay attention to Desmond Howard's picks on GameDay. He's better than the others, I think.

I basically ignored the epsn power ranking all together. It's garbage. I would start by looking at what vegas had the spread for the match up. Then looked at points allowed by team, passing yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed.  Then compared it to what the other teams passing yards, rushing yards, and points allowed were. But that was not guarantee.. ie SMU bowl game. To make a determination on how to allocate the point amounts I based by decision off of the spread amount by Vegas. If vegas had it at +14 , +7 and then ranked the point amounts based on Vegas confidence of odds to win to give the highest probability of getting the higher point amounts. Other aspects that I took into consideration were number of wins in the last final weeks and if a coach had been fired or left the program.  

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27 minutes ago, Zebra Frog said:

Too much work.  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Amen!

 

Of course, that is probably why he is sitting at 96.4% and I am at 27.4%. I put zero effort into it beyond "gut" feelings. (And I will likely drop further, because I am riding a bad day in the ESPiN offices for the last pick.) But his first place is well deserved for all that effort!

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9 hours ago, Zebra Frog said:

Too much work.  ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It consisted of hitting the preview button next to the match up. ESPN gave you all the info. It literally took a couple of seconds for each game and then haven't touched it since I made the picks. 

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2 hours ago, Black-it-out-Frog! said:

It consisted of hitting the preview button next to the match up. ESPN gave you all the info.

Yes! This is what I said, too. It's all there.

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18 minutes ago, Black-it-out-Frog! said:

Clemson came ready to play. I wasn't expecting that!

Yeah, but LSU finally woke up.

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Congratulations to @Black-it-out-Frog! for his first place finish in our Bowl Mania Pick 'Em! You really cemented your lead with the Washington pick over the Smurfs and never looked back after that. Well done. Be sure to watch your mail for the fabulous array of prizes which will be heading your way very soon! 😉 

 

In other news...I beat the damned Computer! Woo-hoo!! I ended up in second place and it finished third. This is a personally very fulfilling accomplishment and a satisfying end to the season. Better luck next time, nerd. 😁

 

Thanks for playing, everyone! Next season, we'll be picking the Frogs in a bowl again! 

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I beat the Troll by one point so that's all I care about!!!  Beat him in the regular season pick'em as well so I have 8 months of bragging rights.  😁

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