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PurpleDawg

2019 College Pick'Em Thread!

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It's here at last, the fantasy game everyone has been clamoring for! College Pick'em is always a highly anticipated benefit of TFH membership and brings out the team spirit in each player who tries their skill at choosing the winners each week. Aw, who am I kidding? Each of us in it to win all those fabulous prizes and trounce everybody else!

 

Here's the run-down of how to play if you need a refresher: Sign up (see the link below) and get your picks done before the first Saturday of the season, August 31. Pick the winner of each match-up and then order those picks based on confidence. The higher the confidence, the more points you get for a correct pick. So, for example, if TCU is in the line-up of picks, you would automatically award the Frogs the highest confidence, which is 10 points. If Baylol is in it, you'd give them an automatic 1 point (there is no zero, alas). Picks for each game must be made by about five minutes before the kickoff. Don't forget to scroll to the bottom of the page to SUBMIT. YOUR. PICKS. and pick the tiebreaker. You must submit your picks after each time you make a change, don't forget.

 

Link for our group:  http://fantasy.espn.com/college-football-pickem/2019/en/group?groupID=16761

 

Password: GMFP

 

2018 Defending Champion: That Damned Computer

 

ESPN also has a phone app for their fantasy games where you can find College Pick'em. It's pretty easy to navigate once you get the hang of it. Look for it in your app store (Android and iPhone). It's called ESPN Fantasy.

 

You can click a box when you sign up to get a weekly email reminder to make your picks. Somebody also posts a reminder in this thread.

 

We had lots of fun last year and gained a few new players. Let's do it again!!

 

GO FROGS!

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1 hour ago, PurpleDawg said:

 

2018 Defending Champion: That Damned Computer

 

 

And DUSHEE is angry after pretty much pooping the bed during the bowl season last year.  He is out for blood ...

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58 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

 

And DUSHEE is angry after pretty much pooping the bed during the bowl season last year.  He is out for blood ...

You know I almost put forth a resolution banning computerized ranking algorithms. They are the scourge of CFB!

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So far, ArmyFrog and Rana have signed up. That's a fair start, but I know there's at least 10 more people who are dying to get in on the shenanigans. It's so easy to register that these guys could even do it! In fact, they're discussing their picks for the first week right now. The bucks are arguing about Oregon/Auburn while the cow had her picks made last week. Get to it, y'all!

large.IMG_20190821_124409899_HDR.jpg 

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So I'm trying something a little different in the early season.  Instead of just going with my gut until every team has played 2 games and I can generate a rating, I'm going to use last years DUSHEE ratings and scale it by Bill Connolly's returning production numbers to base my picks on.  The top returning production is Western Michigan at 85% and the bottom is UAB at 36% with the median at 63% (TCU is just below median at 61%).  I semi-arbitrarily say that teams at the top end of the rankings will be a TD better and teams at the bottom will be a TD worse than last year and scale everybody else in between ... Connolly makes an off handed comment stating this is roughly valid but I'm not sure how much data backs that up.

 

Anyway, it gives me some picks that definitely go against the conventional wisdom (which is largely that blue bloods will be better than Group of 5 teams, no matter how much the blue bloods sucked last year (looking at you Florida State, USC, and Ole Miss).

 

On a purely biased and personal level, I hope this is way off basis as it would project to TCU being just about as mediocre as last year.  Let's hope in that particular case that the new production is going to be far better than the leaving production ...

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I'm in!  Think I convinced the hubby to join us this year.  I'll have him sign up this weekend.  He usually goes by the name of either Purple Troll or Pelenor.  I better crush him!

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On 8/22/2019 at 8:10 AM, Duquesne Frog said:

So I'm trying something a little different in the early season.  Instead of just going with my gut until every team has played 2 games and I can generate a rating, I'm going to use last years DUSHEE ratings and scale it by Bill Connolly's returning production numbers to base my picks on.  The top returning production is Western Michigan at 85% and the bottom is UAB at 36% with the median at 63% (TCU is just below median at 61%).  I semi-arbitrarily say that teams at the top end of the rankings will be a TD better and teams at the bottom will be a TD worse than last year and scale everybody else in between ... Connolly makes an off handed comment stating this is roughly valid but I'm not sure how much data backs that up.

 

Anyway, it gives me some picks that definitely go against the conventional wisdom (which is largely that blue bloods will be better than Group of 5 teams, no matter how much the blue bloods sucked last year (looking at you Florida State, USC, and Ole Miss).

 

On a purely biased and personal level, I hope this is way off basis as it would project to TCU being just about as mediocre as last year.  Let's hope in that particular case that the new production is going to be far better than the leaving production ...

 

How has DUSHEE generally performed against the spread?

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On 8/23/2019 at 1:23 PM, Army Frog Fan said:

 

How has DUSHEE generally performed against the spread?

 

This is probably tl;dr for most, but I compared results against the spread after the bowls with less than stellar results: 

 

I set up similar comparisons before previous bowl seasons but I'm not sure I followed through entirely on how they were after ...

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1 hour ago, Zebra Frog said:

“In”

Not sure I want to be humiliated again, though.

I'm so happy you are! 

 

There are 10 of us ready to slug it out for that fabulous smorgasbord of prizes. Still time for many more to sign up! Instructions in the first post. Don't be afraid of that God forsaken computer or its slave.

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Just a reminder to everyone that the 10 point game is the game you are MOST confident in.  Seems like every year we have folks mix it up the first week, so hopefully everyone remembers this year. 

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You read my mind, girl! ☝️ Thanks for posting that reminder. 

 

So, now we've got 12 pickers in the Pick'em! Time's a-wastin'! Get signed up quick! You can get in on the action up until about 11:55amET Saturday. Also, you're allowed to change your picks and order of confidence even after the slate of games start. Just do it by about five minutes prior to the individual game's start time. Be sure to remember to save your changes, too. 

 

 

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PD was hitting the road early this morning so I'm backing her up.  :)  Congrats to Presbyguy in the #1 spot this week with 47 points.  Frisky was right behind him with 46 points.

 

Lots of football left!!

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All that can be said about week 2 is when the top score is only 35, and it's by that damned computer, you know it was a bad week. I'm sure I speak for all of us (including @Army Frog Fan ) in thanking the Fighting Harbaughs for finally showing up to play, better late than never. And the Huskies did none of us any favors. It was the only other pick we all agreed on, to the tune of 7 points or better! 👿 Onward👉 More pickin' to come!

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53 minutes ago, PurpleDawg said:

All that can be said about week 2 is when the top score is only 35, and it's by that damned computer, you know it was a bad week. I'm sure I speak for all of us (including @Army Frog Fan ) in thanking the Fighting Harbaughs for finally showing up to play, better late than never. And the Huskies did none of us any favors. It was the only other pick we all agreed on, to the tune of 7 points or better! 👿 Onward👉 More pickin' to come!

 

And the damned computer should have been higher because its week-kneed human rearranged the top 4 confidence picks based on "gut."  2018 DUSHEE with returning production adjustments liked Clemson as the top-confidence pick, but Washington seemed like the safer bet ...

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1 hour ago, Duquesne Frog said:

week-kneed human rearranged the top 4 confidence picks based on "gut."

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQhu2yW6VgBwqv2xyxL4ST

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5 minutes ago, gofrogs152 said:

I tanked this week.  Ugh....

You ain't the only one, sister.

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Congratulations to The Purple Troll, this week's winner in our Pick'em! Troll he may be, but beating That Damned Computer™ earns him Horned Frog cred immediate! We skip second place (although placing most of your marbles on a game that was predicted to be very close has me questioning the smarts of that machine) and acknowledge Newf and Rana for their tie at third. It was really close at the top of our game this week; only three points separated the top four players. So, hearty congratulations to everyone! ( @Army Frog Fan what happened? Bad week after the loss? 😕)

 

Top four as of week three: DUSHEE, presbyguy, The Purple Troll, Arrrgggh. Still lots of time to catch up if you're further down the chart. Only a 12 point difference between number four and the top right now.

 

Also, y'all DO THE TIE BREAKER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE! ESPN uses that to determine the weekly prize winner in the event of a tie. I don't know how it works, but just do it. We need a winner from our group!

 

GO Frogs, beat the Ponies!

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