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Army Frog Fan

Too early to start a 2018-19 Basketball thread?

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2 hours ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

New bubble watch from ESPN has a focus on the teams, like TCU,

Was just coming in to post this same thing. I especially thought the comments about the NET system were interesting.

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I think I would prefer a 10 seed over an 8/9 spot.  8/9 gets a #1 in round 2.  A 10 has to get past a 7 seed but also gets a 2 seed.  Plus it seems that at least one 2 seed is upset every year so a chance at a 15 seed.

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According to betfirm.com:

 

Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed

Seed 2nd Round Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four Champ Game Win Champ True Odds
1 100.0% 86.4% 69.7% 40.9% 24.2% 15.2% 60.6%
2 93.9% 62.9% 46.2% 21.2% 9.8% 3.8% 15.2%
3 84.1% 50.8% 24.2% 11.4% 6.8% 3.0% 12.1%
4 80.3% 47.0% 15.9% 9.8% 2.3% 0.8% 3.0%
5 64.4% 32.6% 6.1% 4.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
6 62.9% 32.6% 10.6% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 3.0%
7 61.4% 18.9% 7.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.8% 3.0%
8 50.8% 9.8% 6.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.8% 3.0%
9 49.2% 3.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 38.6% 18.2% 6.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 37.1% 15.2% 5.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 35.6% 15.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 19.7% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 15.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 6.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

So, while a 10 seed (and 11 and 12, for that matter) has a much better chance of getting to a Sweet 16 than an 8/9 (18.2% vs. 6.8% - averaging the 8/9 chances), it has a significantly lower chance of getting to a Final 4 (0.8% vs. 2.3%).  So if you can get past that #1 in the Second Round, your path deep into the tournament is easier than lower seeds. 

 

An 11-seed has as good a chance to get to the final 4 as a 6-seed ...

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47-45 Frogs, 11:57 to go. Come on, Froggies!

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55-53  Hillbillies 7:57 JDMiller at the FT line when we come back.

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66-62 WVU, 2:12 to play.  Noi with 4 fouls, several others in trouble.

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OT. Near disaster. 68-68 at the end of regulation. Let's go, Frogs!

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I'm gonna have a heart attack. Tied up 77. :27.7. 10 second dif on shot clock. Frogs with the ball.

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Noi fouls out. Also Samuel (earlier).

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JD just tied us up at 84. 1:56 2OT 

 

JD Miller with new career high 24 points!! Glares at the WVU bench. lol

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86-84 WVU 1:07 Miller fouled and hurt, but comes back up. Whew!

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Tied at 88 :21.2. Holy cow.  Just when you think it's over, Nembhard sinks a 3.

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