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Vlade Divac

Rooting Interests

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2 minutes ago, Vlade Divac said:

Go Pitt ✅

Go Big Blue ❌

Wreck ‘Em ❌

Roll Tide

Go Cocks

Go Trees

 

Now for the big one. RTR. Bama in the Iron Bowl is a must.

 

Yeah an Auburn win and we are out for all intents and purposes. That would put 2 SEC teams in if we beat OU. 

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4 minutes ago, NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink said:

 

I don’t think that was too critical. Wouldn’t have hurt, but still a path with a Wiscy win.   

 

A Michigan win would’ve been big for our NY6/top 11 chances if we lose in the CCG. 

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29 minutes ago, DirtyThirdFrog said:

Bama looking very beatable folks. 

For realz. Their imploding in the 4th. 26-14 Auburn.

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9 minutes ago, RedHill said:

 

 

 

0ap1000000088419.jpg

But now, all three of Auburn's RBs are out with injuries.

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We’ll know more after we see this week’s rankings. If Alabama only drops to 5, they’ll be in with TCU or tOSU CCG wins. If 6, they’ll need both. If 7, there’s a chance. 

 

If Clemson loses tonight, that probably gets OU to #1 leading into the CCG. That’d be huge for our resume. 

 

Really need a Notre Dame loss tonight for our NY6 chances. 

 

Go Cocks and Trees. 

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Stanford up 31-20 with 12 minutes to play. It’d be great if they can run it up to bury Notre Dame and keep them out of the NY6. 

 

Also, Bryce Love is special.

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4 hours ago, Vlade Divac said:

We’ll know more after we see this week’s rankings. If Alabama only drops to 5, they’ll be in with TCU or tOSU CCG wins. If 6, they’ll need both. If 7, there’s a chance. 

 

If Clemson loses tonight, that probably gets OU to #1 leading into the CCG. That’d be huge for our resume. 

 

Really need a Notre Dame loss tonight for our NY6 chances. 

 

Go Cocks and Trees. 

 

They re rank every week, am I right? 2014 comes to mind. 

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35 minutes ago, NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink said:

 

I think ND is out of the NY6 picture. 

 

I think you’re right, which will be huge for us if we lose the CCG. We won’t need to jump anyone, just hold off a 10-2 Washington and not lose bad enough to drop below 9-3 brand names like LSU and Notre Dame. 

 

 

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This is a really tough week to figure out. I know a lot of you are holding out hope at the CFP, but I think our odds are incredibly long.

 

In addition to beating OU, I believe our best chance is for Clemson, Auburn, Ohio State, and Stanford to win their CCGs. This would leave Ohio State, TCU, and Alabama vying for 2 spots. We have to hope that the Committee values a conference championship above all else and uses that to separate TCU and Ohio State from Alabama. If Ohio State loses and we're in a H2H comparison with Alabama alone, I believe they'll use the "eye test" to give Alabama the 4 seed and make it Clemson, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Alabama. Auburn over Georgia helps the case that 2-loss conference champions are still strong.

 

Conference Champions

Clemson 12-1

Auburn 11-2

Ohio State 11-2

TCU 11-2

Stanford 10-3

 

At-Large

Alabama 11-1

Wisconsin 12-1

Miami 11-2

Oklahoma 11-2

Georgia 11-2

USC 10-3

 

Kirby Hocutt reiterated last night that the 4 tiebreakers, in no particular order or emphasis, are: conference championship, H2H, quality wins, and common opponents.

 

A sleeper game to watch is Fresno State @ Boise State in the MWC CCG. Fresno is currently at #25, counting as a Top 25 win for Alabama who beat them 41-10 in Week 2. If they can drop out of the Top 25, that would make Alabama 2-1 against the Top 25, just like we would be. Ohio State, however, would be 3-1. 

 

In terms of common opponents, Alabama and Ohio State do not share any. Not really sure what this tells us, but we share Oklahoma with Ohio State and Arkansas with Alabama:

 

  • Oklahoma: Ohio State lost 31-16 at home (15 points), TCU lost 38-20 on the road (18 points), but this assumes we eventually get a win too
  • Arkansas: Alabama won 41-9 at home (32 points), TCU won on the road 28-7 (21 points)

 

That all seems to sort of wash itself out, only leaving conference championships. I don't trust that they'll actually let it come to that, or that every CCG will break the way we need it to, but that's the best rooting scenario I can come up with.

 

In terms of the NY6, we really just have to hold off Washington and USC if they lose the Pac-12 CCG. Notre Dame dropped enough and has looked bad enough that I don't think they can move them up above us should we lose. If UCF wins and we lose in a respectable way, I think they swap us to put UCF #11 and TCU #12 which would still get us into the NY6. 

 

To recap, here's how I'd root if you're holding out hope:

 

  • Big 12: TCU, obviously
  • SEC: Auburn
  • ACC: Clemson
  • Big Ten: Ohio State
  • Pac-12: Stanford, big for our NY6 odds
  • MWC: Boise State

 

If we don't win the Big 12 CCG, I'll be pulling for Georgia, Wisconsin, and Miami though.

 

This has been a fun thread. Thanks for playing along.

 

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Now if Wisconsin, Clemson and Georgia win, that would mean all three CFI teams have 1 or less losses.  Would they then put in a 1 loss Alabama over a 2 loss OU?

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On 11/29/2017 at 11:30 PM, Vlade Divac said:

This is a really tough week to figure out. I know a lot of you are holding out hope at the CFP, but I think our odds are incredibly long.

 

In addition to beating OU, I believe our best chance is for Clemson, Auburn, Ohio State, and Stanford to win their CCGs. This would leave Ohio State, TCU, and Alabama vying for 2 spots. We have to hope that the Committee values a conference championship above all else and uses that to separate TCU and Ohio State from Alabama. If Ohio State loses and we're in a H2H comparison with Alabama alone, I believe they'll use the "eye test" to give Alabama the 4 seed and make it Clemson, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Alabama. Auburn over Georgia helps the case that 2-loss conference champions are still strong.

 

Conference Champions

Clemson 12-1

Auburn 11-2

Ohio State 11-2

TCU 11-2

Stanford 10-3

 

At-Large

Alabama 11-1

Wisconsin 12-1

Miami 11-2

Oklahoma 11-2

Georgia 11-2

USC 10-3

 

Kirby Hocutt reiterated last night that the 4 tiebreakers, in no particular order or emphasis, are: conference championship, H2H, quality wins, and common opponents.

 

A sleeper game to watch is Fresno State @ Boise State in the MWC CCG. Fresno is currently at #25, counting as a Top 25 win for Alabama who beat them 41-10 in Week 2. If they can drop out of the Top 25, that would make Alabama 2-1 against the Top 25, just like we would be. Ohio State, however, would be 3-1. 

 

In terms of common opponents, Alabama and Ohio State do not share any. Not really sure what this tells us, but we share Oklahoma with Ohio State and Arkansas with Alabama:

 

  • Oklahoma: Ohio State lost 31-16 at home (15 points), TCU lost 38-20 on the road (18 points), but this assumes we eventually get a win too
  • Arkansas: Alabama won 41-9 at home (32 points), TCU won on the road 28-7 (21 points)

 

That all seems to sort of wash itself out, only leaving conference championships. I don't trust that they'll actually let it come to that, or that every CCG will break the way we need it to, but that's the best rooting scenario I can come up with.

 

In terms of the NY6, we really just have to hold off Washington and USC if they lose the Pac-12 CCG. Notre Dame dropped enough and has looked bad enough that I don't think they can move them up above us should we lose. If UCF wins and we lose in a respectable way, I think they swap us to put UCF #11 and TCU #12 which would still get us into the NY6. 

 

To recap, here's how I'd root if you're holding out hope:

 

  • Big 12: TCU, obviously
  • SEC: Auburn
  • ACC: Clemson
  • Big Ten: Ohio State
  • Pac-12: Stanford, big for our NY6 odds
  • MWC: Boise State

 

If we don't win the Big 12 CCG, I'll be pulling for Georgia, Wisconsin, and Miami though.

 

This has been a fun thread. Thanks for playing along.

 

 

I'm not sure about ND staying behind us.  That said, looking at previous years conf champs losers typically don't drop much (avg 1-2 spots), and usually they don't get passed by idle teams, with some exceptions (Wisc 2014, who got blown out, USC 2015 who gained a 5th loss).  

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1 hour ago, NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink said:

 

I'm not sure about ND staying behind us.  That said, looking at previous years conf champs losers typically don't drop much (avg 1-2 spots), and usually they don't get passed by idle teams, with some exceptions (Wisc 2014, who got blown out, USC 2015 who gained a 5th loss).  

 

Notre Dame would have to jump idle Washington too. Notre Dame will still be used by ESPN for ratings, but not in the NY6. They’ll let them slip to the Citrus which is on network up against the Peach NYD early. They’ll call Peach a ratings loss (UCF) and satisfy advertisers in that time slot with Notre Dame vs. SEC in the Citrus. 

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Why do we want Ohio State and not Wisconsin?  It seems to me that we would prefer that the Badgers win in order to give the Buckeyes a 3rd loss and avoid the possibility of Wisconsin finishing without a conference championship but with only one loss (like Alabama).

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On 11/29/2017 at 11:30 PM, Vlade Divac said:

 

  • Big 12: TCU, obviously
  • SEC: Auburn
  • ACC: Clemson
  • Big Ten: Ohio State
  • Pac-12: Stanford, big for our NY6 odds

 

538 agrees with you. The above combination gives us according to them a 27% chance of making the playoffs with the Pac-12 game being the linchpin with a 10% swing.  The other three games provide a negligible swing of between 0 and 2% with the Big Ten game being the 2% swing.  This is because Wisconsin is guaranteed in with a victory whereas neither  Ohio State nor Wisconsin is guaranteed in with a Buckeye victory.

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1 hour ago, Jared said:

Why do we want Ohio State and not Wisconsin?  It seems to me that we would prefer that the Badgers win in order to give the Buckeyes a 3rd loss and avoid the possibility of Wisconsin finishing without a conference championship but with only one loss (like Alabama).

 

Wisconsin's not getting in (or finishing above us) if they lose. Their schedule's been bad (their best win is Northwestern). Like RSK said, they are guaranteed a spot if they win, whereas OSU is not guaranteed a spot if they win.

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46 minutes ago, Mike M. said:

 

Wisconsin's not getting in (or finishing above us) if they lose. Their schedule's been bad (their best win is Northwestern). Like RSK said, they are guaranteed a spot if they win, whereas OSU is not guaranteed a spot if they win.

Got it - we'd rather compete with the Buckeyes and the Tide for potentially two spots rather than with Bama for only one spot.

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