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angelosfrog

AP Top 25

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1 hour ago, angelosfrog said:

 

There are a few idiots in there that don't have us ranked at all.  Screw 'em.  We will have our chance to break into the top 10 in a couple of weeks if we TCB against SMU and beat OSU on the road. 

Hahahaah the Fayetteville Observer (1 of 2 arkie local newspaper) doesnt have us ranked. Must be butt hurt from the weekend still.

The Arkansas-Democratic Gazette (local Arkie newspaper) has us at 19 FWIW.

 

Yup, beating OSU on the road would be HUGE. We dont usually play well in hostile stillwater so lets hope we can change that this year!

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My personal fave - the Massey Composite rankings.

 

 

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

 

2 - Oklahoma

9 - Oklahoma State

18 - Kansas State

23 - TCU

32 - West Virginia

51 - Texas Tech

58 - Texas

72 - Iowa State

89 - Baylor

118 - Kansas

 

 

 

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A convincing win over SMU may move us up to #19, but likely not more than that. I could see us dropping if the game is close. Here are the matchups to watch this week in terms of our ability to Keep Climbing the polls.

 

Possible beneficial upsets: #19 Stanford @ SDSU, #12 LSU @ Mississippi State, #10 Wisconsin @ BYU

We may be able to jump #14 Louisville if #3 Clemson hands them their ass. But we may also get jumped by the #23 Tennessee @ #24 Florida winner.

SOS/Conference: Texas @ #4 USC, Arizona State @ Texas Tech, #18 Kansas State @ Vanderbilt

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2 hours ago, TCaliU said:
Different way of ranking teams , interesting read.
 

 

 

This is a basic technique used in psychology for decades. It is very interesting, but your panel of judges is important. I once ran a scaling study using the 50 states on a small group of TCU freshmen. My favorite observation was that Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and a number of other northern states showed no differentiation whatsoever. They just plain fell into a single blob in their minds!

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Bill Connely at football study hall has the following analysis:

 

S&P + ranks:

 

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles?_ga=2.238486089.87282525.1505318012-1885112840.1449784331

 

TCU has the 13th best chance at 11-1 or better:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/9/12/16291642/college-football-playoff-2017-odds-oklahoma-alabama-usc-wisconsin-clemson

 

TCU's statistical profile:

 

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-tcu-advanced-statistical-profile

 

Win probability
0 wins 1 win 2 wins 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins 6 wins 7 wins 8 wins 9 wins 10 wins 11 wins 12 wins
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 15% 26% 27% 17% 6% 1%

Probability of finishing 11-1 or better: 6.8%

Probability of finishing 6-6 or better: 98.4%

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink said:

Bill Connely at football study hall has the following analysis:

 

S&P + ranks:

 

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles?_ga=2.238486089.87282525.1505318012-1885112840.1449784331

 

TCU has the 13th best chance at 11-1 or better:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/9/12/16291642/college-football-playoff-2017-odds-oklahoma-alabama-usc-wisconsin-clemson

 

TCU's statistical profile:

 

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-tcu-advanced-statistical-profile

 

Win probability
0 wins 1 win 2 wins 3 wins 4 wins 5 wins 6 wins 7 wins 8 wins 9 wins 10 wins 11 wins 12 wins
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 15% 26% 27% 17% 6% 1%

Probability of finishing 11-1 or better: 6.8%

Probability of finishing 6-6 or better: 98.4%

 

 

 

 

Better than a 40% chance of 9 wins is much better than I would have thought at the first of the season.  With as many tough road games as we have this season, I think 9 wins at this point would be pretty fair prognostication.

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Until we can prove we are not Mike Gundy's beotch, I don't like our chances at Okie State.  OU is obviously very good again this year even though we usually play them close, you can't expect a win there.  Kansas will probably finally beat us this year since we always save our worst game of the year for them.  There's your three losses.

 

I really like our chances against everyone else.  We usually match up well against K-State as long as we don't get mistake happy.   WVU at home and Texas at home are the other potential slip ups, but until Texas can prove they aren't our beotch ...

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16 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

Until we can prove we are not Mike Gundy's beotch, I don't like our chances at Okie State.  OU is obviously very good again this year even though we usually play them close, you can't expect a win there.  Kansas will probably finally beat us this year since we always save our worst game of the year for them.  There's your three losses.

 

I really like our chances against everyone else.  We usually match up well against K-State as long as we don't get mistake happy.   WVU at home and Texas at home are the other potential slip ups, but until Texas can prove they aren't our beotch ...

Is this, like, the official DUSHEE analysis or just your opinion?

 

I think we'll handle KU, but I would add (at) Tech to the potential slip-up list.

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1 minute ago, Jared said:

Is this, like, the official DUSHEE analysis or just your opinion?

 

I think we'll handle KU, but I would add (at) Tech to the potential slip-up list.

 

Just personal opinion.  DUSHEE has not accumulated enough data to make any pronouncements, yet.  The hurricanes cancelling/postponing all of those games may delay DUSHEE longer than usual.  Which is obviously the real tragedy caused by the hurricanes ...

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2 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

Until we can prove we are not Mike Gundy's beotch, I don't like our chances at Okie State.  OU is obviously very good again this year even though we usually play them close, you can't expect a win there.  Kansas will probably finally beat us this year since we always save our worst game of the year for them.  There's your three losses.

 

I really like our chances against everyone else.  We usually match up well against K-State as long as we don't get mistake happy.   WVU at home and Texas at home are the other potential slip ups, but until Texas can prove they aren't our beotch ...

 

I think we get one of the Okies this year.  Just feel like it is time.

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7 minutes ago, DirtyThirdFrog said:

 

Agree... and I don't see us losing to KU.

 

Tech scares me.

 

Scares me a little too.  Tech could be the surprise team in the league this year.  I think they beat ASU, UH and Baylor this season and I had those games figures as losses for Tech before the season started.

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43 minutes ago, angelosfrog said:

 

Scares me a little too.  Tech could be the surprise team in the league this year.  I think they beat ASU, UH and Baylor this season and I had those games figures as losses for Tech before the season started.

 

I think Tech lost to ASU, 68-55....

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