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Duquesne Frog

Read the Blogs, Damn You!!!

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6 hours ago, HEBFrogfan said:

Just read the Old Scribe's blogs about TCU coaches....Priceless....

 

We were fortunate to have OS on our forum if only for a relatively short while.  He added...well, through his blog posts he still adds...a wonderful and unique perspective. I miss him, and that's something I don't say about very many people.

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13 minutes ago, PurpleDawg said:

^Shameless. 

... when it comes to loving you.

I'll do anything you want me to ...

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2 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

... when it comes to loving you.

I'll do anything you want me to ...

:wub:

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14 minutes ago, PurpleDawg said:

Click bait.

 

Do you remember how college football used to look?  The way it looks now will leave you speechless!

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23 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

 

Do you remember how college football used to look?  The way it looks now will leave you speechless!

What college football did next left me in tears 

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4 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

I put up a new lovingly crafted blog post on what it means when someone says a team has a 60% chance of winning.  If you wonder, "where the hell are they coming up with that number," this might help ...

 

 

Is it also sealed in a succulent, Swiss, quintuple-smooth, treble-milk chocolate envelope and frosted with glucose?

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Just now, Radio Shack Killa said:

 

 

Is it also sealed in a succulent, Swiss, quintuple-smooth, treble-milk chocolate envelope and frosted with glucose?

 

And wrapped in a box made of only the finest Corinthian leather ...

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10 minutes ago, RedHill said:

 

 

Just so happens I'll be in Vegas next week.  Would I want to use the DR and compare it to the Vegas line i.e. 

 

DR: tOSU0-24 Vegas: tOSU-7.5  = tOSU to cover the spread by 16.5?

 

First, my lawyers have advised me to say that DUSHEE does not encourage betting or gambling of any kind.

 

That said, if I were a betting person, I'd probably limit my bets to those where all the computer models are unanimously on one side of the line.  If for no other reason than I couldn't bear it if my little half assed experiment and time killing toy cost you money.

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58 minutes ago, RedHill said:

 

 

 

I don't go to Vegas to get rich, I go to have fun.   I bet with my head,  not over it!

 

I'll try to figure out the DUSHEE and throw a few chips down. 

 

Thanks Duq! 

 

To answer your original question, I have not noticed a correlation difference between DUSHEE methods and vegas point spreads

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If you do a linear regression on the DUSHEE point spreads vs. Vegas, DUSHEE Revised (R2 = 0.43) is a slightly better, but still terrible, fit than DUSHEE Original (R2 = 0.35).  Which means ... I'm not sure.  It possibly means that Vegas is putting additional weight on SOS in a manner similar to DUSHEE Revised, since that is the main difference between Revised vs. Original DUSHEE.

 

BTW, both DUSHEE Original (R2 = 0.88) and Revised (R2 = 0.93) are pretty good fits with the SRS system.  Meaning the two are using very similar methodologies.  DUSHEE and Sagarin correlate to, R2 = 0.88 with Original and R2 = 0.94 with Revised. 

 

BTW, R2 = 1 means that the two are perfectly correlated.

 

Corrected!  Had the Sagarin correlations messed up.

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20 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

Corrected!  Had the Sagarin correlations messed up.

And here I was ready to believe you 

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13 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

 

Fake news!  Sad!

Failing DUSHEE 

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@RedHill, so far after 7 bowl games ATS (when I pulled the numbers a week and a half ago) ...

 

DUSHEE Original : 6-1

DUSHEE Revised: 4-3

DUSHEE Average: 5-2

Sagarin: 4-3

SRS: 3-4

 

Suck it, naysayers!!!

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5 hours ago, Duquesne Frog said:

@RedHill, so far after 7 bowl games ATS (when I pulled the numbers a week and a half ago) ...

 

DUSHEE Original : 6-1

DUSHEE Revised: 4-3

DUSHEE Average: 5-2

Sagarin: 4-3

SRS: 3-4

 

Suck it, naysayers!!!

You shouldn't have revised, apparently 

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The first DUSHEE post of the 2019 season, breathlessly anticipated, no doubt.  Rankings won't be ready for at least another 2 weeks, but I'm playing around with the "Extra Crispy" DUSHEE formula:

 

 

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Well, the Extra Crispy version has always been my favorite, but the Outlier Adjustment component seems way too small for my tastes.

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