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Radio Shack Killa

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Just now, Army Frog Fan said:

I apologize for being hyperbolic with my analogy.  I am just overly frustrated with the situation.

 

On that, I think, you will find almost universal agreement. 

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Just now, NewfoundlandFreeFrog said:

Yeah. As I mentioned on the science thread, this is precisely the opposite of how one provides scientifically valid numbers.

 

That said, predictions where exponents are involved are very, very tricky (hence the problem with much of economics). Anyone who goes more than a very few iterations ahead is adding in a lot of assumptions many of which are likely to change slightly--which is enough to throw the models out of whack.

The models are garbage.

CDC on March 13: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Feds on March 31: between 100,000 and 240,000 Dead

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3 minutes ago, Army Frog Fan said:

I apologize for being hyperbolic with my analogy.  I am just overly frustrated with the situation.

 

The silver lining here is hopefully we come out the other side of this a lot smarter. And it will force us to prepare for when it happens again.  Or at least it will for as long as our societal collective memory will remember how painful this has been.

 

(btw, this whole thing has been a pretty good analog for what we're facing in climate change, except much shorter term and with an eventual finite limit to the costs.  But I hesitate to go there ...)

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6 minutes ago, Army Frog Fan said:

The models are garbage.

CDC on March 13: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Feds on March 31: between 100,000 and 240,000 Dead

 

As a professional modeler, I take umbrage ...

 

Models are only as good as the assumptions and data that go into them.  Unprecedented things under unprecedented circumstances are pretty phucing hard to model.  Testing (i.e., data) is the antiseptic for bad models.  Which is why the lack of early testing was such a mistake ...

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19 minutes ago, Army Frog Fan said:

The models are garbage.

CDC on March 13: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

Feds on March 31: between 100,000 and 240,000 Dead

 Disagree they are garbage. The 2 come from different sources and have different underlying assumptions. The 1.7 million dead number from the CDC for medical purposes assumes (at the grossest level) a .005% death rate and a near 100% infection rate. This is an important number to be aware of in preparing and we could well reach it regardless of strategy over time if no vaccine comes on line.

 

The lower number from WH for political purposes assumes that either the death rate is far lower or the herd to be infected is 10x smaller like perhaps through a quickly available vaccine (unlikely). Or possibly if we can break the back of the exponential curve and get some test kits we can go back to methods which are known to work: Extreme testing of all persons and contact tracing/quarantine of contacts. 

 

It also neglects to state time course which is a key omission which I doubt is accidental. Haven't talked to many docs, but the few I have are thinking much over the WH rate even with social distancing over the next year. The up side is the system won't get overwhelmed a la the graphic I posted this morning.

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Listened to a doctor this morning who made the point that modelers are in a damned-if-you-do scenario because you build the models to show how bad a scenario can get to spur action to prevent those worst-case scenarios.  So if they effectively spur that action so that the worst-case isn't realized, then they get criticized for "inaccurately" predicting what happened.

 

Same sort of thing happened with Y2K.  Everyone criticized the harbingers of doom after the fact when planes didn't fall out of the sky, but failed to acknowledge the labor and efforts that those doomsday scenarios harbinged to prevent them from happening.

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5 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

Listened to a doctor this morning who made the point that modelers are in a damned-if-you-do scenario because you build the models to show how bad a scenario can get to spur action to prevent those worst-case scenarios.  So if they effectively spur that action so that the worst-case isn't realized, then they get criticized for "inaccurately" predicting what happened.

 

Same sort of thing happened with Y2K.  Everyone criticized the harbingers of doom after the fact when planes didn't fall out of the sky, but failed to acknowledge the labor and efforts that those doomsday scenarios to prevent them from happening.

I managed about 30 or 40 computers at that time. About 5 or 6 as I remember failed with the Y2K bug and fixed in advance. Therefore there was no Y2K problem. Yeah! great logic!

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Great thread.  This guy has some great ideas that people need to be considering and then advising the government leaders on.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Duquesne Frog said:

Which is why the lack of early testing was such a mistake ...

And continues to be such a problem everywhere. I personally think the people fighting against the restrictions on movement, etc. don't understand that the numbers being released on people with the virus have no relation to the truth. "Testing, testing, testing" has been the refrain from the beginning. It's still non-existent in almost everywhere in adequate numbers.

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On 4/2/2020 at 4:08 PM, Newbomb Turk said:


I’m not saying you’re wrong, AFF.  But I have an honest question: who’s your beef with?

 

The federal government has not issued a nationwide stay at home order, right? The CDC has issued recommendations, which each of us as citizens are free to follow or ignore.

 

Some large, densely populated cities have chosen to respond to CDC recommendations by issuing stay at home orders.  Since large, densely populated cities are at higher risk of transmission, I personally think those orders are appropriate.  (I’m open to discussion on that, though.)

 

And from what I’ve been reading, the governments of Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky (and for that matter, Texas) have yet to issue statewide stay at home orders, or have only recently done so.  Heck, on March 25, governor of Mississippi actually overrode a stay at home order issued by the Mayor and city council of Tupelo!  Of course, yesterday, he issued a statewide stay at home order.  I guess something changed.  And the governor of Georgia issued a statewide stay at home order yesterday, stating that he had learned only yesterday that asymptomatic individuals could transmit the disease to others.  He must not watch a lot of news...

 

And the details of those orders vary as to what constitutes essential businesses and gatherings.  Greg Abbott, for example, issued Executive Order GA 08 limiting gatherings to no more than 10 and shutting down dining rooms.

 

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/EO-GA_08_COVID-19_preparedness_and_mitigation_FINAL_03-19-2020_1.pdf  

 

The “no gatherings greater than 10” orders undoubtedly put a big strain on some businesses, but they don’t shut down the economy.  (Again, open to discussion.)

 

So those state governments aren’t “shutting down their economies” by issuing stay at home orders, or have only recently done so.  (It should, of course, be noted that many of the actual citizens of those states are already sheltering at home absent government directive, which is their right.)

 

So let’s see how this looks in six weeks.  Kentucky’s and Mississippi’s and East Texas’ rural health care systems might be clicking along just fine in mid-May, benefitting from the ramp up in production of personal protective gear, ventilators, emerging treatments, and increasing availability of hospital beds and the medical staff to man them.  Or not.

 

My point is, response to COVID-19 in the U.S. appears to be regional, not nationwide.  Federalism in its purest form!  The federal government provides non-binding recommendations, and individual state and local governments respond to those recommendations based on their specific risks as determined by their elected officials.

 

So, back to my original question: who are you saying is insane?  Trump?  He hasn’t issued a nationwide stay at home order.  Greg Abbott?  Hasn’t issued a statewide stay at home order, although he DID limit gatherings to no more than 10 people and shut down dine in restaurants.  And the county judge in Shackelford County (county seat: Albany) isn’t forcing anyone to stay home, but followed Abbott’s “no greater than 10” lead:

 

  http://www.shackelfordcounty.org/upload/page/8560/2020/County Disaster Declaration.pdf

 

It’s no great stretch to think that a lot of the aforementioned local officials are NOT big government liberals.  There’s a hell of a lot of them, and each individual one of them exercised his or her own judgement to issue orders that are sure to be unpopular with their anti-government constituents.  Are ALL of them insane?  
 

Just asking.


UPDATE: Abbott issued a new Executive Order that took effect at noon today (4/2).  He refuses to call it a “stay at home” order, although news outlets are characterizing it as such.

 

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/EO-GA-14_Statewide_Essential_Service_and_Activity_COVID-19_IMAGE_03-31-2020.pdf

 

 

 


Kentucky has actually been extremely proactive and we have a much flattened curve to show for our efforts. Early, systematic shutdown of churches & schools, then bars and restaurants, then everything else. Most travel is banned, especially out of state because Tennessee and Indiana have done horrible in comparison. Everyone pours a drink at 5:00 to watch our amazing governor break the day’s information down in helpful, positive ways. I am thankful everyday that we were able to oust Bevin in November. Beshear was made for this moment.

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4 minutes ago, Friskyfrog said:


Kentucky has actually been extremely proactive and we have a much flattened curve to show for our efforts. Early, systematic shutdown of churches & schools, then bars and restaurants, then everything else. Most travel is banned, especially out of state because Tennessee and Indiana have done horrible in comparison. Everyone pours a drink at 5:00 to watch our amazing governor break the day’s information down in helpful, positive ways. I am thankful everyday that we were able to oust Bevin in November. Beshear was made for this moment.


You are absolutely correct, FF.  I mixed up Kentucky and Tennessee.  (Forgot about Beshear’s unlikely victory last time.)

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4 minutes ago, Newbomb Turk said:


You are absolutely correct, FF.  I mixed up Kentucky and Tennessee.  (Forgot about Beshear’s unlikely victory last time.)


That was us teachers! Even a ruby red state like Kentucky didn’t have any use for a stupid carpetbagger who was a gleeful asshole to public school teachers.

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AFF and interested parties: 538 has a good article on pandemic forecast models here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-case-and-worst-case-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/

 

It makes the point that the lack of testing data is key to the large error bars since modeling with insufficient data is especially fraught. As well they make the point that the WH model--if there is one, that is actually unknown given the secrecy--is a bit of an outlier on the lower end (though at least it is on the scale). Of course the WH model could well turn out to be "correct" since the time frame was not defined and in an exponential model that is a rather key omission. That will allow later for the WH to say, for example, "well we were only talking about up to July" (or whatever). 

 

 

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On 4/4/2020 at 10:00 AM, Lyle Lanley II said:

Yesterday: Trump opposes mail-in voting for November's election

 

Three weeks ago: Trump and his wife apply for mail-in ballots (in a state they've never lived in

We only have vote by mail in Oregon and it's awesome. It's been the law in this state for about 20 years and the officials say fraud is very low because they verify every signature on every ballot against the signature on the voter's registration. Turn out is also very high. Plus, voting machine malfunction/loss of votes never happens because there is a verifiable paper ballot to fall back on. And, it's cheaper for the state than having all those polling locations open with multiple voting machines. Not looking forward to giving it up when I get back home to Texas.

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Yeah I don't know the benefits or drawbacks of different forms of voting, I just thought it was a pretty stunning display of hypocrisy from the moron so many Americans continue to deify.

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21 hours ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

Yeah I don't know the benefits or drawbacks of different forms of voting, I just thought it was a pretty stunning display of hypocrisy from the moron so many Americans continue to deify.

Of course, today the RNC chair comes out against it as a Democrat trick to skew the election by fraud. I'll be looking for a courageous reporter to ask the orange about his mail-in ballot request.

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Ah, voter fraud and voter suppression: the dueling molehills made into mountains by fear-mongering political parties and lapped up enthusiastically by the feeble-minded.

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26 minutes ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

Ah, voter fraud and voter suppression: the dueling molehills made into mountains by fear-mongering political parties and lapped up enthusiastically by the feeble-minded.

 

Disagree, though, re. "feeble minded"...more along the lines of authoritarian-followers who can often be quite bright but see a path to money and power by going along and shaping the electorate into a favorable subset rather than winning the electorate as a whole.

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Just now, Newbomb Turk said:

Bernie suspending his campaign

Finally.

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19 minutes ago, PurpleDawg said:

Finally.


3927622D04CF45718DA6.gif

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