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30 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

IMO, this story is about both sides playing to their bases ... Warren gets to bait Trump into calling her Pocahontas again and to taunt him about the wager claim that both knew he'd never pay up, which fires up liberals who get to rage about Trump's bigotry.  Trump gets to openly mock an opponent and claim she's cynically using identity politics, which fires up conservatives who get to rage about liberal political correctness and multiculturalism.

 

I think the thing Warren didn't account for is the blowback she's getting from Native Americans today.

 

Even CNN is now calling Warren's stunt a "sing and miss."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics/elizabeth-warren-donald-trump-pocahontas/index.html

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10 hours ago, DirtyThirdFrog said:

Last poll I saw Beto was down 9%. It’s not going to be close y’all. 

 

538 has moved the race from "leaning" to "likely" R, 52%-47% to Cruz, 78% chance of winning.  But given that Texas has a nearly 17-point Republican lean, the fact that it is still as close as it is says something about Cruz ...

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/

 

With Heitkamp looking increasingly like she is going to lose ND, 538 gives the Republican chances of keeping the Senate at over 80%

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538 also has the D's up to an 85% chance of winning back the House, the highest percentage since August.  Unjerrymandring in PA looks like it will result in a shift from a 12-6 Republican majority in the House to a 10-8 or 11-7 Dem majority.  Lots of seats flipping in NJ and the Midwest: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

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Phil Knight just gave even more money to the Republican governor's race here, this time a little indirectly, in the form of $1M to the Republican Governor's Association. He gave $1.5M earlier directly to the R candidate for Oregon governor. The race was leaning towards our incumbent to keep her office, but it's moved to 40 for her, 35 for the Challenger now. Lots of undecideds, though.

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43 minutes ago, Army Frog Fan said:

I saw an ad last night where Robert O'Rourke was blown up talking to the camera and he had multiple pimples or cold sores on his upper lip.  For a guy who is supposedly breaking fundraising records, that should not happen. Its a bad look.

High Def is bad for lots of people. 😄

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5 hours ago, Duquesne Frog said:

 

538 has moved the race from "leaning" to "likely" R, 52%-47% to Cruz, 78% chance of winning.  But given that Texas has a nearly 17-point Republican lean, the fact that it is still as close as it is says something about Cruz ...

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/

 

With Heitkamp looking increasingly like she is going to lose ND, 538 gives the Republican chances of keeping the Senate at over 80%

 

It does, its says that Cruz is exactly what he's promised to be. He's not John Wayne McCornin (as I like to call our other senator). Cruz will never be the most likeable guy, and a lot of old school, blue blood republicans don't like him, not to mention a lot of the Trump camp who still don't like him from the 2016 election.

 

But what he does is he represents Texas and what Texans value, Beto? he can go to California.

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Latest 538 odds... 

 

House: 84% dem control, 16% rep control.

Senate: 80% rep control, 20% dem control

 

Jointly, the odds then are:

Dems control both: 84%*20% = 17%

Reps control both: 16%*80% = 13%

Dem house, rep senate: 84%*80% = 67%

Rep house, dem senate: 16%*20% = 3%

 

Basically the only option not presently in play is the last option. Everything else is up for grabs with a reasonable probability. Rep control of both houses is about as likely as shooting ones self on a first try at Russian Roulette with an eight chambered revolver.

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Don't let this distract you from the fact that in 1972, a crack commando unit was sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit. These men promptly escaped from a maximum security stockade to the Los Angeles underground. Today, still wanted by the government, they survive as soldiers of fortune. If you have a problem, if no one else can help, and if you can find them, maybe you can hire... The A-Team. 

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On 10/17/2018 at 8:14 AM, PurpleDawg said:

Phil Knight just gave even more money to the Republican governor's race here, this time a little indirectly, in the form of $1M to the Republican Governor's Association. He gave $1.5M earlier directly to the R candidate for Oregon governor. The race was leaning towards our incumbent to keep her office, but it's moved to 40 for her, 35 for the Challenger now. Lots of undecideds, though.

Phil drops another $Mil on the R candidate...

 

"Although he has supported both Democrats and Republicans in the past and shelled out significant sums on gubernatorial campaigns, Knight's spending on Buehler's campaign has far surpassed the previous record for an individual political donor in Oregon. The state does not have campaign contribution limits."

 

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On ‎10‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 2:29 PM, DirtyThirdFrog said:

But what he does is he represents Texas and what Texans value, Beto? he can go to California.

 

If the polls are correct, nearly half of Texans, or at least those who say they are voting, either don't feel Cruz represents their values or feel O'Rourke represents them better.  But I guess those are all fake Texans ...

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3 minutes ago, Duquesne Frog said:

 

If the polls are correct, nearly half of Texans, or at least those who say they are voting, either don't feel Cruz represents their values or feel O'Rourke represents them better.  But I guess those are all fake Texans ...

 

If Beto wins then you can say that. 

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It always bugs me that simply winning an election even by 1 vote gets construed by the winner as “the people have spoken” in favor of the winner when I reality only a little more half the people of spoken in favor of the winner. It’s as if the losing half don’t exist. Heck even in 60-40 elections there is a higher percentage of people who voted for the loser than the percentage of men attending TCU, for perspective. 

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21 minutes ago, NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink said:

It always bugs me that simply winning an election even by 1 vote gets construed by the winner as “the people have spoken” in favor of the winner when I reality only a little more half the people of spoken in favor of the winner. It’s as if the losing half don’t exist. Heck even in 60-40 elections there is a higher percentage of people who voted for the loser than the percentage of men attending TCU, for perspective. 

Well "the people have spoken" part is true enough. That large groups of people simply do not exist in the minds of the winners is, however, more than a bit of a problem.

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