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old scribe

Did some figgering....

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I am looking forward to next season very much.  Even was before it became obvious that we were going to go off the tracks this year.  Next year we should be loaded.

 

So from this do you concludre Old that the coaches on the offensive side should stick around?

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It's no problem to figure out what's wrong with the Frogs...look at the other posts on here, much less what folks are saying on Scout, Rivals and KFC (they are ready to lynch everyone from the regents down to the student trainers).

Okay. So how did the Frogs fall into this pothole? It may go to sheer numbers.

Look at this year's lineup. Then look at what we would have anticipated being this year's lineup (especially in the OL) two years back. In 2011 (when TCU had a pretty good year and looked forward to 2 more seasons of Pachall passing and Boyce catching, etc.) you saw that there were a bunch of good OL prospects who were sophs or redshirt freshmen (Fabuluje, Mike Thompson, Wellington, Tausch, Dunbar, Horn) who were getting to learn while Kyle Dooley, Blaize Foltz, Fry and Olson (all seasoned juniors and seniors) started. A problem? Hey, just plug TE Robert Deck in at tackle and move along. But by 2012, Fabuluje was a starter, Tausch played quite a bit but Thompson was hurt, Dunbar was a books casualty, Wellington disappeared and Horn was long gone in the weed raid. Now Fabuluje is gone, Thompson is through and that's why we see so many sophomores (Vaitai, Collins, Hunt, Naff ) and even a freshman (Morris) having to step in early, ready or not. Learning on the job can be difficult.

In all, 14 guys from the 2009 recruiting class are unavailable now, one way or another. Five from that class are playing or started the year playing-- Dunbar, Waymon James, Pachall, Wooldridge and Tausch. They are all 5th year men. Not many seniors on this squad.

The next year's class (2010) has eight members currently playing. Five of that year's bright recruits are gone via injuries (Matt Anderson, Ethan Grant, David Johnson, Blake Roberts and Michael Thompson). There is talent in that group. Three more are gone for other reasons (Wellington, Antonio Graves and Travaras Battle).

As a result of this unusual amount of attrition (weed raid, lotsa injuries, some grade problems, etc.) the present lineup shows 3 seniors starting on defense, one of whom (Verrett) came from junior college and one (Koontz) walked on. On offense there are 4 seniors playing...that's not 4 starting, that's 4 of the top 22.

I will not point fingers. There were surely recruiting mistakes made (there always are), but no one counted on the weed raid or a plethora of injuries, many of them career-ending.

The bright side is that all these guys from the 2011-12-13 recruiting classes (guys like Vaitai and Gilbert and Catalon and (yes) Boykin and Matthews and Porter and Slanina and Luper and Lathan and mcFarland and Hunter and Pierson and Lewis and Lawson and Fields and perhaps Dawson and Sam Carter and Hackett and Kevin White and Derrick Kindred) are not only talented but by now are experienced and will be moreso in 2014. In case you didn't notice, 12 of those I just mentioned are on defense.

It ain't all doom and gloom, but it does require patience and a little luck.

excellent post

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Hiring and firing coaches is above my pay grade. But to the extent that the coaches can learn something from the extreme attrition of the past 2 years, they need to figure out how to avoid it happening again. I think CGP is smart enough (with no help from me) to make a few adjustments, maybe even a change or two.

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A good and intelligent analysis, OS. CGP "warned" us there could be seasons like this but his historical success caused a lot of us to think it was just "coachspeak" and that we'd be vying for a conference championship already. One of his warnings to Frogdom was that it would take 3 to 5 years to compete depth-wise with the rest of the conference. And naturally none of us really "liked" hearing it would take more than maybe 2 seasons before we'd be turning away those high-starsies recruits. Reality says CGP was right, as he nearly always is.

 

OS, you wisely state it ain't all doom and gloom, but it does require patience and a little luck. You're right as rain about that. But patience is a hard sell to any team's fans who have developed an entitlement mentality.

 

Keep informing us, Sir. This forum needs your insights.

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Hiring and firing coaches is above my pay grade. But to the extent that the coaches can learn something from the extreme attrition of the past 2 years, they need to figure out how to avoid it happening again. I think CGP is smart enough (with no help from me) to make a few adjustments, maybe even a change or two.

Yes. We need our players to remain healthy and eligible.

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We were so excited coming into this season because we were so young, but that youth didn't gel on the offensive side.

Hardest thing for me is to watch a national championship caliber defense just wither on the vine.

I still believe though that we can score enough points to win the rest of our games.

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One of the things I've worried about is how this attrition might affect our APR down the road.  We've always been tops in that department...is there enough attrition to make that a concern? 

 

I don't know enough about the forumula to know.  However, it does seem like that could be an issue.

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We were so excited coming into this season because we were so young, but that youth didn't gel on the offensive side.

Hardest thing for me is to watch a national championship caliber defense just wither on the vine.

I still believe though that we can score enough points to win the rest of our games.

 

+1.  Hard to overstate the quality of our defense right now.  So good that even a mediocre offense might be good enough.

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Good post Scribe.  Doesn't make me feel any better about this season though.  Hopeful for next but pessimistic about this one.  I keep telling myself that we have three true sophs playing on the O-line who should not have been expected to contribute until next year at the earliest and I understand the root cause of our problem but that doesn't make it any easier.  In retrospect, the loss of Tayo was probably a much bigger blow than I thought at the time.  I am just glad that we were able to redshirt Pryor because from what some "in the know" have said on HFB, that kid is going to be a good one.  And, I hope we can sign a good class of O-linemen this season and redshirt everyone of them. 

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I don't know enough about the forumula to know.  However, it does seem like that could be an issue.

APR?

 

Isn't there a mulligan rule about being too low for a year or two?  Wouldn't TCU have to be too low for 3 years before it's a problem?

 

It'll embarrass a lot of TCU fan board posters if suddenly we have an SEC-like graduation rate, but my gut tells me that many/most recruits don't worry about APR any more than they worry about not being good enough to start until they move on the Sunday football.

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GP said it was a five year plan, right? Fits With what OS posted. Well said, OS.

 

Yeah, but if it wasn't for horrible grade/drug/don't wanna attrition of the past couple of years it would've been a 2 year plan.  If we as a program had done a better job of keeping our players eligible and out of trouble we would've been real instead of pretend Big 12 title contenders in 2012 and 2013.  That's where we've fallen short.

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Yeah, but if it wasn't for horrible grade/drug/don't wanna attrition of the past couple of years it would've been a 2 year plan.  If we as a program had done a better job of keeping our players eligible and out of trouble we would've been real instead of pretend Big 12 title contenders in 2012 and 2013.  That's where we've fallen short.

Or we could have just done what every other big-time program does and sweep everything under the rug and let our players get away with whatever they want 

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I don't feel doomed or gloomy.  However, I have recently been suffering from moderate panic attacks that seem to recur early each Saturday morning.  I've considered counseling but for some reason, by Monday the attack is history and I have no reason to make an appointment with a therapist. 

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