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COVID19 Thread

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33 minutes ago, Army Frog Fan said:

 

I never said never.  But if they are the ones susceptible to the worst ramifications of this, cordon them off and let it run its course.  Instead, we are crippling the market and disrupting the lives of millions of families because, some, I REPEAT SOME,  of the 49 and younger crowd will get a fever and a headache for about 36 hours. What happens come April 7, when some random kid tests positive?  Are we shutting down for another month??

I think 6-8 weeks would be sufficient.  The problem is that it may be endemic now.  Which is fine once we have a vaccine, but till then we will have flare ups.  Like I said in a previous post, the idea now is slowing it down so we can manage it in our hospitals.  Ie. have a sufficient number of ventilators.  If we don’t slow it down, doctors are going to have to choose who they try to save.

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1 hour ago, NewfoundlandFreeFrog said:

 

Yeah...my personal thx on this one. My SIL's in Austin just informed me that Buckner Villas there has just shut down all incoming visitation and all outgoing trips for residents there. No good exception list yet available. They are not happy about this, of course, especially as this is a very close family and his (FIL) wife of over 60 years recently died and he is still intensely grieving. But given that FIL is still recovering from a bout of pneumonia, it is probably a very good precaution for him and the rest of us in particular.

We will have more of a problem with loneliness in seniors.

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As an at risk person, it’s easy for me because I’m not very social.  I have tons to do.  Dave is more social than me, and while right now he’s making tons of maple syrup, I’m not quite sure what he will do when that season is over.

 

What worries me is the nonsense on Fox News evening shows about this.  The average age of folks watching those shows is 68.  These folks are at risk, and they’re believing it’s a hoax to get Trump.  Rush says no worse than the flu.  They’re booking cruises.  

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1 hour ago, NewfoundlandFreeFrog said:

 

Yeah...my personal thx on this one. My SIL's in Austin just informed me that Buckner Villas there has just shut down all incoming visitation and all outgoing trips for residents there. No good exception list yet available. They are not happy about this, of course, especially as this is a very close family and his (FIL) wife of over 60 years recently died and he is still intensely grieving. But given that FIL is still recovering from a bout of pneumonia, it is probably a very good precaution for him and the rest of us in particular.

Isolation=loneliness=depression

 

Buy her a iPad, and FaceTime her?  Could she learn to FaceTime?  Not sure what the answers are, but this is tough.

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19 minutes ago, Poison Arrow Frog said:

I think 6-8 weeks would be sufficient.  The problem is that it may be endemic now.  Which is fine once we have a vaccine, but till then we will have flare ups.  Like I said in a previous post, the idea now is slowing it down so we can manage it in our hospitals.  Ie. have a sufficient number of ventilators.  If we don’t slow it down, doctors are going to have to choose who they try to save.

Right, but for the VAST majority of folks under the age of 60 there is no reason to even seek treatment.  But the media is not publishing that.  They are not publishing the stories of the folks who got it, beat it, and learned the were positive later (though I have read a couple of articles on that). instead, its articles that half of the US is going to get it and its a killer.  *oh by the way half of that half may never even feel sick*

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Poison Arrow Frog said:

Isolation=loneliness=depression

 

Buy her a iPad, and FaceTime her?  Could she learn to FaceTime?  Not sure what the answers are, but this is tough.

He. FIL. MIL died a while back.  

 

Re. tech solutions: The immediate family is very techy aware including a Motorola chip exec, accountants, consultants, and a physician. And me.  Oh, and sadly one Aggie engineer. At least he's a chemical engineer.

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1 hour ago, Army Frog Fan said:

Right, but for the VAST majority of folks under the age of 60 there is no reason to even seek treatment.  But the media is not publishing that.  They are not publishing the stories of the folks who got it, beat it, and learned the were positive later (though I have read a couple of articles on that). instead, its articles that half of the US is going to get it and its a killer.  *oh by the way half of that half may never even feel sick*

 

 

 

Hard choices.

 

Let's say it only hit people between 30 and 40 + immune compromised. The vast majority would be unaffected. We could just quarantine all of that group for a year or so and everyone else go on and hope for the best in a ~1 cartridge/100 cylinder game of Russian Roulette. Or, say, just kids between 0 and 10 + immune compromised. 

 

I think in some ways we are somewhat lucky with the  mortality we are seeing. But I'm sure I, at least, disagree with your solution!!! After a vaccine is available I think it makes much more sense then as it would be more like flus.

 

Re. media, CNN has a lead article and longish interview with one such survivor on their front page right now. From its format it was obviously aired as well. And CNN rarely airs anything at all just once which is why I rarely watch it (or any other video news as this is true of all such sources). Reading is ever so much much more faster and efficient. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/health/coronavirus-survivor-elizabeth-schneider/index.html

 

What REALLY makes me frustrated is the theater showing of Der Fliegende Hollander is cancelled tomorrow as Lincoln Center is closed.  :-{

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1 hour ago, Poison Arrow Frog said:

...  Dave is more social than me, and while right now he’s making tons of maple syrup,...

 

...

 

Re. "social", from personal experience I can say that nothing produces social "friends" like a few gallons of maple syrup in the pantry!

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19 hours ago, Army Frog Fan said:

 

I never said never.  But if they are the ones susceptible to the worst ramifications of this, cordon them off and let it run its course.  Instead, we are crippling the market and disrupting the lives of millions of families because, some, I REPEAT SOME,  of the 49 and younger crowd will get a fever and a headache for about 36 hours. What happens come April 7, when some random kid tests positive?  Are we shutting down for another month??

You make an interesting point.  So, I did a little research, and here’s what I found:

 

I think this is what the U.K. is trying to do.  Condoning off the severely at risk folks, and allow everyone else to get infected, recover, and therefore the population can gain herd immunity, and then the at-risk populations can be let loose.  This has to be carefully done so as to not overwhelm the health services.

 

The problem with this is that we have limited hospital beds, and ventilators, so the hospitals will be quickly overrun anyway, because it’s not just the at risk folks dying, it includes many in the regular healthy population.  Since it is a novel virus, our bodies have no immunity to it.  As well, due to medical care of infected people and the associated heavier viral load, or even just general population infection, physicians and nurses, and support staff will get ill.  Who, then, will care for the sick?  So, until the virus has a reproduction rate (r0) of less than 1, this would probably lead to a very big problem in the US.  We have much fewer hospital beds per capita than other first world countries.  Right now the r0 of SARS-CoV-2 is 2-3.5.

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https://www.npr.org/2020/03/13/815522836/u-s-coronavirus-testing-gets-a-breakthrough

 

"We have about 400,000 tests that are available for the U.S. market," Brown says. And he says Roche expects to manufacture about 1.5 million tests per month.

That's a lot more tests than have been administered so far.

And Brown says there are about 100 Roche machines already in use across the country, each capable of processing more than of 1,000 tests per day.

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Dow opens down 2,250 / 9.71% at the open.  Circuit breaker kicks in immediately.  Trading stops.

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This will probably be obvious to many, but stating the obvious never stopped me before, so...

 

This is a historic event akin to 9/11.  More significant than the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.
 

It will have long lasting societal effects, many of which no one sees coming.

 

This outbreak is a HUGE warning sign.  Thankfully, COVID-19 isn’t going to kill everyone, but viruses mutate and evolve constantly.  What about the NEXT virus?  What about the one with a 5% mortality rate across all age groups? Or 10%?  Virologists have been warning about this for years, with minimal resultant governmental or societal action.

 

The cruise ship and brick and mortar casino “industries” are going to contract significantly, possibly permanently. (Personally, I’m okay with that; I’d love to see Sheldon Adelson go broke.)

 

Medicare for All is going to get more popular.  I’m not advocating - I’m just saying that a lot of people living in medically underserved areas (read: rural, as in Trump’s strongholds) are going to recognize the value of collective institutions.
 

People may ACTUALLY RECOGNIZE WHY THEY PAY TAXES.

 

Telecommuting is going to become MUCH more common.

 

Anybody have any predictions?

 

What’s the old Chinese curse?  “May you live in interesting times.”  
 

Edit: Jeff Bezos is going to rule the world, at least for awhile.

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46 minutes ago, Newbomb Turk said:

This will probably be obvious to many, but stating the obvious never stopped me before, so...

 

This is a historic event akin to 9/11.  More significant than the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.
 

It will have long lasting societal effects, many of which no one sees coming.

 

This outbreak is a HUGE warning sign.  Thankfully, COVID-19 isn’t going to kill everyone, but viruses mutate and evolve constantly.  What about the NEXT virus?  What about the one with a 5% mortality rate across all age groups? Or 10%?  Virologists have been warning about this for years, with minimal resultant governmental or societal action.

 

The cruise ship and brick and mortar casino “industries” are going to contract significantly, possibly permanently. (Personally, I’m okay with that; I’d love to see Sheldon Adelson go broke.)

 

Medicare for All is going to get more popular.  I’m not advocating - I’m just saying that a lot of people living in medically underserved areas (read: rural, as in Trump’s strongholds) are going to recognize the value of collective institutions.
 

People may ACTUALLY RECOGNIZE WHY THEY PAY TAXES.

 

Telecommuting is going to become MUCH more common.

 

Anybody have any predictions?

 

What’s the old Chinese curse?  “May you live in interesting times.”  

 

 

Well the Fed has now exhausted their basic toolset. That makes investors nervous. Even my mostly widows and orphans funds are losing pretty badly!

 

Yes. This is actually no surprise at all to the experts. The only ones surprised were those who routinely ignore experts for political purposes. Reminds me of pols who take pension payment "holidays" to lower taxes and then are "surprised" when all of a sudden the funds run out.

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Just published in Science. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

 

No paywall but here's just the abstract...

 

Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

 

This is the reason that epidemiologists are sounding such alarms.

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Just got an e-mail from the Dallas Running Club expressing gratitude for the support of their decision to suspend their social runs.

 

I realize that “social runs” are an actual thing (God knows I see them on Saturday mornings around TCU and Colonial), but I can’t imagine screwing up an hour of glorious solitude and fitness by injecting social interaction, small talk, and vapid conversation.

 

As you might guess, this whole “social distancing” thing has been a godsend for me.

 

I think I’ll go pet the dog and play Halo (solo) now.

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Welp.  The Dow is up a whopping 359 points from the day Trump took office.

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On 3/16/2020 at 9:50 AM, Newbomb Turk said:

This will probably be obvious to many, but stating the obvious never stopped me before, so...

 

This is a historic event akin to 9/11.  More significant than the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.
 

It will have long lasting societal effects, many of which no one sees coming.

 

This outbreak is a HUGE warning sign.  Thankfully, COVID-19 isn’t going to kill everyone, but viruses mutate and evolve constantly.  What about the NEXT virus?  What about the one with a 5% mortality rate across all age groups? Or 10%?  Virologists have been warning about this for years, with minimal resultant governmental or societal action.

 

The cruise ship and brick and mortar casino “industries” are going to contract significantly, possibly permanently. (Personally, I’m okay with that; I’d love to see Sheldon Adelson go broke.)

 

Medicare for All is going to get more popular.  I’m not advocating - I’m just saying that a lot of people living in medically underserved areas (read: rural, as in Trump’s strongholds) are going to recognize the value of collective institutions.
 

People may ACTUALLY RECOGNIZE WHY THEY PAY TAXES.

 

Telecommuting is going to become MUCH more common.

 

Anybody have any predictions?

 

What’s the old Chinese curse?  “May you live in interesting times.”  
 

Edit: Jeff Bezos is going to rule the world, at least for awhile.

Italy has a single payer system, and they aren’t doing well.  IMHO 1918 flu, or WW2 is a better descriptor than 911.  We are just lucky the fatality rate isn’t higher.

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1 hour ago, Poison Arrow Frog said:

Italy has a single payer system, and they aren’t doing well.  IMHO 1918 flu, or WW2 is a better descriptor than 911.  We are just lucky the fatality rate isn’t higher.

 

Using the word "system" to describe anything in Italy is almost never correct!  :)

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Testing shortage is even worse than portrayed in press.  ARUP, Labcorp, Quest, Mayo completely overwhelmed and most not accepting samples today.  State labs overwhelmed.  Drive by testing rapidly increasing samples and they aren't ready for the volume.  Unless you are really, really sick you won't be able to be tested.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink said:

Testing shortage is even worse than portrayed in press.  ARUP, Labcorp, Quest, Mayo completely overwhelmed and most not accepting samples today.  State labs overwhelmed.  Drive by testing rapidly increasing samples and they aren't ready for the volume.  Unless you are really, really sick you won't be able to be tested.  

 

 

 

Was listening to a doctor on NPR who was comparing and contrasting how we responded to South Korea.  He argued that since they threw a ton of money and resources into testing and testing early, they new where the real hot spots were and how it was spreading, so they've been able to institute far less of the severe "social-distancing" than we have.  They've been able to more carefully quarantine and they do far more societal monitoring ... taking temperatures of people as they walk into bulildings, etc.  Ultimately, their economy won't take as big a hit as ours will because we are just blindly and dumbly shutting everything down.

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