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PurpleDawg

COVID19 Thread

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1 hour ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

The American death toll has now passed 95,000.

I had been hoping there was enough of a daily drop to keep the total dead under 100,000 until June. Looks like my hopes are not to be realized by a goodly margin as the drop quit happening and went to a plateau.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

You have to wonder how many of these lives could've been spared if we had better leadership.

 

According to one model I saw recently, getting the leadership to respond 7 days earlier would have taken about 40K deaths off the US total.

 

Here in Newfoundland the public health authorities closed everything down very tightly early in March after one single funeral (less than 2 blocks from my house--but thankfully more than 6 feet--led to 200 cases and 3 dead very early on and, it being a postie, ended up shutting down our mail for nearly 3 weeks since everyone in the PO was then out. This led to everyone seeing how serious things could get and just how quickly exponential spread worked. So compliance really hasn't been a huge issue.

 

Cases leveled immediately and now there have been no new cases for nearly 2 weeks. Like New Zealand and Australia, being an island can be a good thing sometimes. Plus, snowbird season here really doesn't get going til later in March and on into April so travel--the main means that community spread seems to have gotten going in more continental areas--was much easier to limit. Though there were thousands upon thousands spring vacays cancelled, of course.

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4 hours ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

You have to wonder how many of these lives could've been spared if we had better leadership.

The NYT reports, from a Columbia University study, that 36,000 fewer deaths could have happened if lockdown restrictions had been put in place one week earlier.

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5 hours ago, PurpleDawg said:

The NYT reports, from a Columbia University study, that 36,000 fewer deaths could have happened if lockdown restrictions had been put in place one week earlier.

Further....had the restrictions been put in place on March 1, two weeks earlier than they were, 83% of people who have died would not have died, said the model. That's heartbreaking.

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CDC now saying COVID spreads predominantly person-to-person.
 

Latest thinking is less chance of transmission from surfaces than previously thought.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

 

And you can pet your dog (not that I wouldn’t have anyway.)

 

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12 hours ago, NewfoundlandFreeFrog said:

I had been hoping there was enough of a daily drop to keep the total dead under 100,000 until June. Looks like my hopes are not to be realized by a goodly margin as the drop quit happening and went to a plateau.

 

 


We could actually hit 100,000 deaths on Memorial Day. Kinda weirdly fitting, I guess.

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It's good to see that the fatality rate is low - but I guess that just means the transmission rate is pretty high because the sheer number of deaths is staggering and dwarfs that of even an exceptionally high year for the season flu.

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15 hours ago, Army Frog Fan said:


Well, ...your numbers get skewed.  

Please move this post out of this thread, Army. No politics in here, please. Or, you may edit it if that's what you prefer. Thanks.

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I've been thinking for a while that people were getting too excited over these vaccine studies. Just think how many times you've heard of people getting the "flu" after having a flu shot. A COVID vaccine could stop the disease from developing into pneumonia, but there will still be the upper respiratory illness to deal with (i.e., there's no vaccine for a "cold").

 

The world needs Covid-19 vaccines. It may also be overestimating their power

Ideally, vaccines would prevent infection entirely, inducing what’s known as “sterilizing immunity.” But early work on some of the vaccine candidates suggests they may not stop infection in the upper respiratory tract — and they may not stop an infected person from spreading virus by coughing or speaking.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/

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22 minutes ago, PurpleDawg said:

Please move this post out of this thread, Army. No politics in here, please. Or, you may edit it if that's what you prefer. Thanks.

Edited just for you.  

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13 hours ago, Army Frog Fan said:

Edited just for you.  

Try again please, or I can do it for you. Thank you.

 

Edit: Your post has been moved to the God Save Us thread, @Army Frog Fan. We're doing our best to keep politics out of this thread. Thanks for your help.

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8 hours ago, Lyle Lanley II said:

I wasn't trying to get political, just pointing out the riduculousness of any remnants of the "just the flu" narrative that might still be out there.

 

But yes, I would agree with you that there are probably several states that - along with the federal government - sorely need a change in executive leadership.

 

It's possible that at the younger age groups the flu is more deadly than COVID.

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10 hours ago, Rothbardian said:

 

It's possible that at the younger age groups the flu is more deadly than COVID.


Then mitigation efforts (social distancing, frequent hand washing, etc) will reduce the spread of that, too.

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11 hours ago, Rothbardian said:

 

It's possible that at the younger age groups the flu is more deadly than COVID.

 

You misspelled "possible," but what you meant was "almost a 100% certainty, which has been known for weeks and yet we closed schools and have cancelled camps"

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48 minutes ago, Friskyfrog said:


Then mitigation efforts (social distancing, frequent hand washing, etc) will reduce the spread of that, too.

 

Making kids be socially distant is cruel. My daughter is devastated because her summer camp made the call to close for the summer, despite other neighboring camps opening.  But if it saves one life...

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2 minutes ago, Army Frog Fan said:

 

Making kids be socially distant is cruel. My daughter is devastated because her summer camp made the call to close for the summer, despite other neighboring camps opening.  But if it saves one life...


One life? We are getting ready to cross the 100,000 life threshold in America. So much for that 60,000 in August projection.  A 50 year old (hey, that’s me) who contracts COVID has a 5% chance of hospitalization, which is way higher than with the flu.

 

We could have been New Zealand or South Korea, but we screwed the pooch. Reopening needs to happen, but it has to be done gradually with data-driven decisions. The 3 phase guidelines put out by the federal government were reasonable and measured. My state was one of only two that met the 14 days of declining case number standard to begin moving through the phases. I am optimistic that we will be able to return to in-person schools in the fall.

 

It is so frustrating to me that a nation with our ingenuity and might was so incapable of mobilizing our resources to mount a strong, proactive defense. It is beyond frustrating to me that any part of these difficult conversations and decisions has become politicized. Surely we all want the same things here, and I believe we are capable of hard work and sacrifice to bolster the common good.

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1 hour ago, Friskyfrog said:


One life? We are getting ready to cross the 100,000 life threshold in America. So much for that 60,000 in August projection.  A 50 year old (hey, that’s me) who contracts COVID has a 5% chance of hospitalization, which is way higher than with the flu.

 

We could have been New Zealand or South Korea, but we screwed the pooch. Reopening needs to happen, but it has to be done gradually with data-driven decisions. The 3 phase guidelines put out by the federal government were reasonable and measured. My state was one of only two that met the 14 days of declining case number standard to begin moving through the phases. I am optimistic that we will be able to return to in-person schools in the fall.

 

It is so frustrating to me that a nation with our ingenuity and might was so incapable of mobilizing our resources to mount a strong, proactive defense. It is beyond frustrating to me that any part of these difficult conversations and decisions has become politicized. Surely we all want the same things here, and I believe we are capable of hard work and sacrifice to bolster the common good.


So you have a 95% chance of not going to the hospital? And a 99% chance of surviving if you get it?  Let’s kill the economy and make kids’ lives miserable...or not

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1 hour ago, Friskyfrog said:

...data-driven decisions.


Wait... are those even a thing anymore?

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A couple more posts have been moved to the politics thread. Come on, y'all. Help, please.

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21 hours ago, Newbomb Turk said:


Wait... are those even a thing anymore?

 

You can be at the beach but not in the water this weekend in NY. In California you can be in the water but not on the beach. Both states claim science as their rationale.

 

The truth is that we really don't know anything about this virus.

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