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Duquesne Frog

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Duquesne Frog last won the day on November 12

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About Duquesne Frog

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    Pittsburgh, PA
  • TCU Class Year or School affiliation
    1997

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  1. Then there was the weird fish-frog hybrid SuperFrog that us GenXers had while in school. Apparently when a hybrid fish-frog mates with a lady Easter bunny, the offspring is remarkably human. Evolution is a funny thing ...
  2. Duquesne Frog

    Christmas Thread 2018

    Santa, like Jesus, is American. Megyn Kelly says so ...
  3. Duquesne Frog

    2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

    I've thought about it, but never went any farther than that. I suppose I could email him. We'll see.
  4. Duquesne Frog

    The Sports Dump

    I admit that my incredulousness is biased by being a young Ranger fan when they traded Sosa and Alvarez for him and watched him spare everybody to death for two nondescript seasons ... but Charlie Hough had about the same career WAR as Baines.
  5. Duquesne Frog

    The Sports Dump

    Harold Baines? Really?
  6. Duquesne Frog

    DUSHEE

    Final Regular Season Rankings
  7. Duquesne Frog

    2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

    Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season. Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan. The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season. Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves. Same old, same old. I don't think UCF is one of the 4 best teams in the country, but I'd be a hell of a lot more interested in the CFP if they were in the tournament. But luckily for all you TFH subscribers, you have DUSHEE to keep you keen and interested. None of the Top 12 moved in the rankings. The gap tightened between Bama and Clemson, now with less than 3-points separating the top two teams. NC-State fans can shelter from their Snowmageddon warmed by the solace that they rose the most in the rankings this week, riding their 55-point blowout of East Carolina to an 8-spot and over 4-point rise in DUSHEE to get back into the top 25. ECU, conversely, experienced the largest drop, falling 10 spots and 4.5 points. UConn sealed the bottom spot, almost 10 points worse than New Mexico State. To give you a sense of how bad UConn was this year, their TOP rated DUSHEE performance all season was in Week 1 in a 39-point loss to UCF. They earned a -16.15 DUSHEE score for that performance. And that was as good as they did all year. TCU's week-to-week hasn't really changed much since I posted their numbers in the Week 13 blog post (Ohio State went up a little, UT and OU went down a little), and Cal's numbers are in the Bowl Preview. So we'll jump to the Best and Worst Performers. It is a pretty rare circumstance for the loser of a game to wind up in the top performers for the week, but Georgia did that in earning a 34.15 DUSHEE score while losing to Alabama by a TD. It is not all that uncommon for a losing team to get a better score than a winning team; generally happening when a bad team keeps a game close against a good team. I know this is a hard concept for many to wrap their brains around when in the traditional AP poll mindset ... the team that loses must drop! But the goal of DUSHEE is to measure the relative strength of the teams, so if a good team goes into a game, say, 13 points better than another team, but only beats them by 7, that is an indication that the gap between those two teams isn't as large as was originally thought. And that is what happened in the Georgia-Alabama game. Georgia went in as a 13-point underdog (per DUSHEE) against the best team in the country. They lost to that team by 7 and outgained them by almost 60. And that is the big flaw in the AP poll. When two teams who are close to each other in the rankings play a close game, there is no reason to change their rankings relative to each other. That is an indication that you had them ranked correctly to begin with. There is no need to punish the loser by dropping them in the rankings. Statistically, the teams were about even. So despite losing, Georgia crept closer to Alabama, closing their gap with the Tide by a little more than 2 points. Championship Week Top 3 Performers 55.96 -- NC State vs. ECU (55 MOV, 544 YM) 34.15 -- Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 MOV, 59 YM) 29.99 -- Clemson vs. Pitt (32 MOV, 229 YM) Championship Week Bottom 3 Performers -54.55 ECU at NCSU (-55 MOV, -544 YM) -24.20 Akron at South Carolina (-25 MOV, -134 YM) -20.51 Marshall at VaTech (-21 MOV, 16 YM) And since we are in year-end mode, let's track down the top and bottom 10 performances for the whole year. 2018 Season Top 10 63.66 - Clemson at Wake (60 MOV, 449 YM) (Week 6) 55.96 - NC State vs. E. Carolina (55 MOV, 544 YM) (Week 14) 53.97 - Ohio vs. Buffalo (35 MOV, 364 YM) (Week 12) 53.84 - Oklahoma vs. Fla. Atlantic (49 MOV, 326 YM) (Week 1) 53.38 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St. (50 MOV, 208 YM) (Week 2) 52.38 - Alabama at Mississippi (55 MOV, 269 YM) (Week 3) 51.54 - Michigan vs. Penn St. (35 MOV, 219 YM) (Week 10) 51.43 - Mississippi vs. La-Monroe (49 MOV, 399 YM) (Week 6) 51.42 - Alabama vs. Missouri (29 MOV, 352 YM) (Week 7) 50.54 - Clemson vs. Ga. Southern (31 MOV, 455 YM) (Week 3) 2018 Season Bottom 10 -62.98 UNLV vs. New Mexico (-36 MOV, -336 YM) (Week 6) -59.78 La-Monroe at Mississippi (-49 MOV, -399 YM) (Week 6) -58.71 UConn at E. Carolina (-34 MOV, -383 YM) (Week 12) -57.87 UConn at Boise St. (-55 MOV, -629 YM) (Week 2) -57.81 Liberty at Auburn (-53 MOV, -397 YM) (Week 12) -57.46 Old Dominion at Liberty (-42 MOV, -290) (Week 1) -56.58 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) (Week 13) -54.55 E. Carolina at NC State (-55 MOV, -544 YM) (Week 14) -53.82 Texas St. at Rutgers (-28 MOV, -247 YM) (Week 1) -52.84 Rutgers at Kansas (-41 MOV, -270 YM) (Week 3) Overall Ratings Regular Season Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 36.16 265.88 36.99 0 -1.30 2 Clemson 33.17 249.73 34.21 0 0.26 3 Georgia 25.54 185.56 26.02 0 0.91 4 Michigan 21.99 199.80 24.34 0 -0.14 5 Oklahoma 19.62 155.95 20.64 0 -0.41 6 Mississippi St. 18.01 148.26 19.19 0 -0.36 7 Ohio St. 17.57 153.04 19.13 0 0.33 8 UCF 20.28 98.78 18.30 0 -0.20 9 Notre Dame 17.32 113.45 17.04 0 -0.21 10 Missouri 16.75 113.10 16.65 0 -0.53 11 Penn St. 16.80 96.26 15.87 0 -0.35 12 Texas A&M 12.83 143.03 15.48 0 -0.25 13 Boise St. 15.06 108.02 15.27 2 0.13 14 Fresno St. 16.86 83.18 15.27 -1 -0.22 15 West Virginia 15.01 99.66 14.84 2 -0.22 16 Cincinnati 13.53 114.34 14.56 0 -0.58 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 -3 -1.10 18 LSU 14.17 89.52 13.78 0 -0.51 19 Iowa 14.34 83.19 13.59 0 -0.16 20 Washington St. 12.64 105.29 13.53 0 -0.19 21 Utah St. 16.49 50.55 13.44 0 -0.11 22 N.C. State 11.35 95.12 12.17 8 4.15 23 Ohio 12.04 83.43 12.07 0 -0.20 24 Washington 10.97 96.78 12.00 1 0.52 25 Utah 12.05 75.17 11.68 -3 -1.06 26 Temple 11.81 69.03 11.22 -2 -0.66 27 Florida 10.67 71.65 10.59 0 0.01 28 Army 10.30 54.54 9.51 -2 -1.83 29 Miami (FL) 7.45 67.37 8.23 0 -0.09 30 Auburn 9.75 31.94 8.05 -2 -0.49 31 Kentucky 9.24 37.67 7.99 0 0.02 32 North Texas 5.99 62.68 7.03 1 -0.13 33 Purdue 7.40 43.03 7.02 -1 -0.16 34 Texas 7.86 31.00 6.74 1 -0.12 35 Wisconsin 5.05 67.14 6.62 1 -0.16 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 1 -0.63 37 Michigan St. 5.34 52.01 6.08 1 -0.13 38 Syracuse 7.26 24.38 6.02 1 0.22 39 Buffalo 5.67 45.55 5.98 -5 -1.05 40 South Carolina 6.74 21.90 5.55 2 0.20 41 Iowa St. 6.93 17.59 5.47 -1 -0.27 42 Memphis 4.87 35.71 4.98 -1 -0.59 43 Oklahoma St. 4.46 38.56 4.84 0 -0.33 44 Stanford 7.44 -10.58 4.45 1 -0.18 45 Florida Atlantic 0.92 77.85 4.38 1 -0.24 46 BYU 2.80 44.73 4.04 1 -0.27 47 Middle Tenn. St. 3.78 22.12 3.59 3 0.38 48 Oregon 4.30 14.64 3.58 0 -0.19 49 Vanderbilt 5.72 -12.73 3.20 2 0.05 50 Georgia Tech 2.66 27.52 3.10 -1 -0.26 51 Marshall 2.50 27.90 3.02 -7 -1.78 52 Arizona St. 3.57 12.37 2.98 0 -0.14 53 Arkansas St. 1.11 37.01 2.53 0 -0.40 54 Texas Tech 2.39 16.94 2.41 0 -0.19 55 Boston Coll. 4.24 -11.06 2.29 7 0.69 56 Pittsburgh 2.95 5.45 2.23 1 -0.06 57 Nebraska -0.34 50.34 2.21 -1 -0.15 58 Virginia 2.29 11.10 2.07 5 0.46 59 Air Force 0.49 31.57 1.86 0 -0.12 60 Miami (OH) 2.12 8.06 1.80 -2 -0.35 61 Houston 3.50 -11.79 1.76 -6 -0.69 62 Toledo 3.85 -19.18 1.64 -1 -0.20 63 Southern Miss -1.42 51.01 1.53 -3 -0.33 64 Maryland 1.99 -3.64 1.15 1 -0.11 65 Minnesota 1.67 -2.49 0.99 -1 -0.29 66 TCU -0.84 26.43 0.72 0 -0.15 67 Northwestern 2.21 -22.92 0.36 0 -0.45 68 Troy 1.09 -8.41 0.32 0 -0.25 69 Arizona -3.90 57.62 0.19 0 -0.20 70 Mississippi -3.37 47.31 0.05 2 -0.05 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 0 -0.12 72 East. Michigan 0.15 -1.70 0.02 -2 -0.18 73 Wyoming -1.03 4.54 -0.47 0 -0.25 74 USC -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 0 -0.25 75 San Diego St. -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 0 -0.23 76 Northern Illinois -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 3 0.89 77 Nevada -3.26 9.03 -1.73 -1 -0.27 78 Florida Intl. -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 -1 -0.18 79 California -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 -1 -0.18 80 Indiana -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 1 0.03 81 LA Lafayette -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 6 0.87 82 UCLA -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 -2 -0.33 83 W. Michigan -7.03 31.77 -3.15 0 0.03 84 Duke -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 -2 -0.27 85 Baylor -5.51 3.40 -3.51 0 -0.17 86 Colorado -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 0 -0.18 87 Tulane -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 -3 -0.78 88 Kansas St. -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 0 -0.16 89 Wake Forest -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 1 0.28 90 Tennessee -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 -1 -0.24 91 Louisiana Tech -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 0 -0.10 92 Virginia Tech -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 6 2.35 93 Florida St. -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 2 0.74 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 -2 -0.36 95 South Florida -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 -2 -0.53 96 SMU -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 0 -0.20 97 Hawaii -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 0 -0.12 98 Navy -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 3 0.68 99 North Carolina -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 0 -0.09 100 Kansas -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 0 -0.18 101 LA Monroe -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 1 -0.02 102 Ball St. -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 1 0.04 103 Arkansas -12.82 -51.70 -11.05 1 -0.28 104 East Carolina -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 -10 -4.58 105 Tulsa -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 0 -0.28 106 Colorado St. -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 0 -0.10 107 West. Kentucky -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 0 -0.16 108 UNLV -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 0 -0.13 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 0 0.00 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 1 0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 -1 -0.45 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 0 -0.01 113 Akron -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 0 -0.90 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 0 -0.17 115 Rutgers -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 0 -0.18 116 New Mexico -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 0 -0.24 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 1 -0.09 118 Illinois -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 -1 -0.17 119 Cent. Michigan -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 0 -0.13 120 Bowling Green -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 0 -0.17 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 0 -0.32 122 Kent St. -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 0 -0.14 123 Oregon St. -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 0 0.14 124 UTEP -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 0 -0.07 125 San Jose St. -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 0 -0.13 126 Louisville -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 0 0.27 127 Rice -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 0 -0.07 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 0 -0.20 129 New Mexico St. -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 0 0.01 130 Connecticut -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 0 -0.74 By Conference AAC 8 UCF 20.28 98.78 18.30 16 Cincinnati 13.53 114.34 14.56 26 Temple 11.81 69.03 11.22 42 Memphis 4.87 35.71 4.98 61 Houston 3.50 -11.79 1.76 87 Tulane -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 95 South Florida -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 96 SMU -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 98 Navy -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 104 East Carolina -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 105 Tulsa -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 130 Connecticut -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 ACC 2 Clemson 33.17 249.73 34.21 22 N.C. State 11.35 95.12 12.17 29 Miami (FL) 7.45 67.37 8.23 38 Syracuse 7.26 24.38 6.02 50 Georgia Tech 2.66 27.52 3.10 55 Boston Coll. 4.24 -11.06 2.29 56 Pittsburgh 2.95 5.45 2.23 58 Virginia 2.29 11.10 2.07 84 Duke -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 89 Wake Forest -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 92 Virginia Tech -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 93 Florida St. -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 99 North Carolina -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 126 Louisville -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 B1G 4 Michigan 21.99 199.80 24.34 7 Ohio St. 17.57 153.04 19.13 11 Penn St. 16.80 96.26 15.87 19 Iowa 14.34 83.19 13.59 33 Purdue 7.40 43.03 7.02 35 Wisconsin 5.05 67.14 6.62 37 Michigan St. 5.34 52.01 6.08 57 Nebraska -0.34 50.34 2.21 64 Maryland 1.99 -3.64 1.15 65 Minnesota 1.67 -2.49 0.99 67 Northwestern 2.21 -22.92 0.36 80 Indiana -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 115 Rutgers -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 118 Illinois -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.62 155.95 20.64 15 West Virginia 15.01 99.66 14.84 34 Texas 7.86 31.00 6.74 41 Iowa St. 6.93 17.59 5.47 43 Oklahoma St. 4.46 38.56 4.84 54 Texas Tech 2.39 16.94 2.41 66 TCU -0.84 26.43 0.72 85 Baylor -5.51 3.40 -3.51 88 Kansas St. -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 100 Kansas -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 CUSA 32 North Texas 5.99 62.68 7.03 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 45 Florida Atlantic 0.92 77.85 4.38 47 Middle Tenn. St. 3.78 22.12 3.59 51 Marshall 2.50 27.90 3.02 63 Southern Miss -1.42 51.01 1.53 78 Florida Intl. -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 91 Louisiana Tech -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 124 UTEP -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 127 Rice -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 Indies 9 Notre Dame 17.32 113.45 17.04 28 Army 10.30 54.54 9.51 46 BYU 2.80 44.73 4.04 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 129 New Mexico St. -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 MAC 23 Ohio 12.04 83.43 12.07 39 Buffalo 5.67 45.55 5.98 60 Miami (OH) 2.12 8.06 1.80 62 Toledo 3.85 -19.18 1.64 72 East. Michigan 0.15 -1.70 0.02 76 Northern Illinois -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 83 W. Michigan -7.03 31.77 -3.15 102 Ball St. -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 113 Akron -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 119 Cent. Michigan -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 120 Bowling Green -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 122 Kent St. -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 MWC 13 Boise St. 15.06 108.02 15.27 14 Fresno St. 16.86 83.18 15.27 21 Utah St. 16.49 50.55 13.44 59 Air Force 0.49 31.57 1.86 73 Wyoming -1.03 4.54 -0.47 75 San Diego St. -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 77 Nevada -3.26 9.03 -1.73 97 Hawaii -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 106 Colorado St. -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 108 UNLV -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 116 New Mexico -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 125 San Jose St. -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 P12 20 Washington St. 12.64 105.29 13.53 24 Washington 10.97 96.78 12.00 25 Utah 12.05 75.17 11.68 44 Stanford 7.44 -10.58 4.45 48 Oregon 4.30 14.64 3.58 52 Arizona St. 3.57 12.37 2.98 69 Arizona -3.90 57.62 0.19 74 USC -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 79 California -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 82 UCLA -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 86 Colorado -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 123 Oregon St. -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 SBC 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 53 Arkansas St. 1.11 37.01 2.53 68 Troy 1.09 -8.41 0.32 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 81 LA Lafayette -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 101 LA Monroe -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 SEC 1 Alabama 36.16 265.88 36.99 3 Georgia 25.54 185.56 26.02 6 Mississippi St. 18.01 148.26 19.19 10 Missouri 16.75 113.10 16.65 12 Texas A&M 12.83 143.03 15.48 18 LSU 14.17 89.52 13.78 27 Florida 10.67 71.65 10.59 30 Auburn 9.75 31.94 8.05 31 Kentucky 9.24 37.67 7.99 40 South Carolina 6.74 21.90 5.55 49 Vanderbilt 5.72 -12.73 3.20 70 Mississippi -3.37 47.31 0.05 90 Tennessee -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 103 Arkansas -12.82 -51.70 -11.05
  8. Duquesne Frog

    Too early to start a 2018-19 Basketball thread?

    71-49 final. Good guys.
  9. Duquesne Frog

    DUSHEE

    The 2018 Bowl Preview ...
  10. Duquesne Frog

    Hollywood Sex Abuse

    Neil deGrasse Tyson, say it ain't so ...
  11. Duquesne Frog

    Too early to start a 2018-19 Basketball thread?

    TV, would be my guess ...
  12. Duquesne Frog

    2018 Bowl Preview

    Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter. ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton. But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard right, THIRTEEN wins! ... and sponsored by what can only be described as the most iconic brand of highly processed, nominally cheese-based, boxed snack cracker (yes, you heard me Cheese Nips, #$%@ you), the inimitable, the indefatigable, the inestimable ... I get a little chill running down my spine just seeing that picture. The state of Arizona hasn't been very good to the Horned Frogs over the last 45 years. Our two bowl games in the state represent two of the last three bowl losses LRBW2XAPCotYHCGMFP has sustained, the ugly 17-16 loss to Michigan State in the 2012 BW3 Bowl, the painful 17-10 loss to Boise in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. The Frogs are also 1-3 all time against Arizona schools, although the one win did come in the state of Arizona, another low-scoring win (13-10) in 2003 against the Arizona team that John Mackovic ruined after he ruined UT. And you can almost bet the house that this game will be another low scoring contest as both teams have stout defenses and borderline anemic offenses. Here are Cal's numbers week-to-week: Opp: UNC @ BYU Ore | @ Zona UCLA @ OreSt | Wash @ WSU @ USC | Col Stan PD: -2.20 5.10 -12.40 | -12.30 -43.09 20.40 | 11.55 8.20 0.09 | 9.90 -6.00 YD: -51.30 142.70 -28.10 | -175.50 -99.18 152.00 | 88.00 -11.00 -82.36 | -125.00 3.10 DO: -3.95 10.31 -9.63 | -16.70 -33.53 20.96 | 11.96 4.93 -3.93 | 0.54 -3.85 Score: 24-17 21-18 24-42 | 17-24 7-37 49-7 | 12-10 13-19 15-14 | 33-21 13-23 Particularly after Cal's inexplicable blow-out loss to UCLA, their defense was stout, giving up an average of 16 points a game over the last half of the season. But make no mistake, taken as a whole, Cal has shown very little evidence that they are anything other than an utterly average team. Their only fairly impressive performances were a blow-out win against a hapless Oregon State and a solid shutdown of the Huskies in Week 9. They struggled to beat a bad North Carolina team, lost to a bad Arizona team, and were a little lucky to have beaten USC and Colorado late in the year in games where they were significantly outgained. Of course, the Frogs were pretty damn average most of this season too. As done last year, I'll compare how DUSHEE, Sagarin (Predictor), and SRS see the bowl matchups as compared to the opening Vegas odds. When I checked the ESPN site linked above, oddsmakers had the Cheez-It Bowl even, but all the computer models like the Horned Frogs. Throughout this post DO = DUSHEE Original, DX = DUSHEE Extra Crispy, DA = average of DO and DX, Sag = Sagarin, and SoS is the DUSHEE-based strength of schedule. Here are the computer numbers for the two teams Bowl Location Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Cheez-It Phoenix, AZ TCU 6-6 0.72 4.49 76.09 3.33 4.52 California 7-5 -2.08 -1.82 73.15 2.34 0.18 The Frogs have had a clear advantage in Strength of Schedule, which makes TCU a stronger favorite in the DX model, by almost a TD. DUSHEE Original and Sagarin like the Frogs by roughly a field goal and SRS likes the Frogs by a point. DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU 2.80 TCU 6.31 TCU 4.56 TCU 0 TCU 2.94 TCU 1.0 Other Big XII-II Bowls It's a bit of a rough slate of games for the Big XII-II. Only West Virginia is favored based on the starting lines coming out of Vegas and the Frogs are the only other team favored by the computers. There is a good chance the conference comes out of the bowl season no better than 2-5. Texas It's the Rapey Bears against the Gilded Age Robber Barons in this battle of mediocrity in Houston. All of the computer models like the Commodores (She's a brick .... house) both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Baylor 6-6 -3.51 -2.34 69.95 2.03 1.47 Vanderbilt 6-6 3.20 7.09 73.31 7.85 6.38 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Vanderbilt 6.71 Vanderbilt 9.42 Vanderbilt 8.07 Vanderbilt 2.5 Vanderbilt 3.36 Vanderbilt 5.8 Camping World West Virginia is the clear favorite in Disney World against the Sicilian Orangepersons. Only the SRS metric doesn't like the Mountaineers against the spread. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS West Virginia 8-3 14.84 19.70 85.94 13.73 2.01 Syracuse 9-3 6.02 5.52 77.19 11.08 -0.90 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS West Virginia 8.82 West Virginia 14.19 West Virginia 11.50 West Virginia 7 West Virginia 8.75 West Virginia 2.7 Alamo The location of many a furious and historic Frog comeback sees the return of the dread pirate Mike Leach against an Iowa State team that faded coming down the stretch. The computer models all agree that the starting line on this game was far too low with DUSHEE and Sagarin both liking the Cougars by more than a touchdown. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Iowa St. 8-4 5.47 4.79 75.62 7.73 2.73 Washington St. 10-2 13.53 14.27 83.46 12.46 -1.45 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Washington St. 8.06 Washington St. 9.48 Washington St. 8.77 Washington St. 1.5 Washington St. 7.84 Washington St. 4.7 Liberty Another matchup where the computer models think Vegas is being far too generous with the Big XII-II team, all taking the Tigers ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Missouri 8-4 16.65 22.70 84.27 15.19 7.84 Oklahoma St. 6-6 4.84 7.74 78.75 5.52 2.74 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Missouri 11.80 Missouri 14.96 Missouri 13.38 Missouri 4.5 Missouri 5.52 Missouri 9.7 NY6 Bowls Peach Everybody likes the Khaki Pants in this one. Only the SRS would take Flo Rida, barely, ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Florida 9-3 10.59 15.63 82.91 12.20 6.78 Michigan 10-2 24.34 28.24 91.78 19.25 3.06 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Michigan 13.75 Michigan 12.61 Michigan 13.18 Michigan 7.5 Michigan 8.87 Michigan 7.1 Fiesta The first game in our summary where there is substantial disagreement between the models. Generally speaking, this most often happens when there is a big difference in strengths of schedule, as is the case this time. Starting off, Vegas likes LSU a lot, so much so that all the computer models, while disagreeing on the winner SU, all like the Kaniggits ATS. DUSHEE Original and the SRS like UCF to win the game, DUSHEE XC and Sagarin like the Bayou Bengals. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS LSU 9-3 13.78 19.59 84.00 14.73 7.85 UCF 12-0 18.26 17.77 82.46 16.22 -2.57 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCF 4.48 LSU 1.82 UCF 1.33 LSU 10 LSU 1.54 UCF 1.5 Rose Unanimous agreement that the Buckeyes are both the favorite SU and ATS. Only about 2.5 points separates the models. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio St. 12-1 19.13 21.49 91.87 18.09 1.07 Washington 10-3 12.00 13.95 86.84 11.84 2.60 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St. 7.13 Ohio St. 7.54 Ohio St. 7.34 Ohio St. 4 Ohio St. 5.03 Ohio St. 6.3 Sugar No one thinks this is going to be close. Sagarin gives a slight edge to the Horns ATS. DUSHEE thinks UGa wins by three scores, but DUSHEE has been lower on Texas than the general consensus all year. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Georgia 11-2 26.02 33.68 92.68 22.64 7.27 Texas 9-4 6.74 9.12 81.67 9.83 3.18 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia 19.28 Georgia 24.56 Georgia 21.92 Georgia 12.5 Georgia 11.01 Georgia 12.8 Cotton Neither of the Semi-Finals look to be competitive. Clemson is a heavy favorite in this matchup. DUSHEE likes the Tigers by nearly 20, Vegas by 10.5. Only the SRS likes the Fightin' Rudys ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Clemson 13-0 34.21 37.26 100.01 23.61 0.94 Notre Dame 12-0 17.01 18.18 87.59 19.06 0.30 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Clemson 17.20 Clemson 19.08 Clemson 18.14 Clemson 10.5 Clemson 12.42 Clemson 4.6 Orange The models are even more unanimous (is that a possible thing, logically?) about the other Semi-Final, although not ATS, where Sagarin and SRS like the Sooners. For some reason, my gut tells me that the Sooners are going to be better here than all the numbers suggest, but the numbers are clear. Roll Tide. Blech. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Alabama 13-0 36.99 42.89 102.68 27.18 5.16 Oklahoma 12-1 20.67 23.30 90.16 17.96 2.94 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama 16.32 Alabama 19.59 Alabama 17.96 Alabama 14 Alabama 12.52 Alabama 9.2 Other Bowls of Regional Interest New Mexico The Fightin' Greene Eagles of Denton face off against the former team of technological's new coach, Utah State. The Aggies are the unanimous favorite but all the computer models like the Mean Green ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS North Texas 9-3 7.03 1.62 66.89 1.68 -8.86 Utah St. 10-2 13.44 10.15 77.65 8.52 -6.54 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah St. 6.41 Utah St. 8.53 Utah St. 7.47 Utah St. 11 Utah St. 10.76 Utah St. 6.8 Frisco The Bowl of Generic Suburban Dallas pits THE Ohio University against the Fightin' Montezuma's of Far Southern California. Ohio is the unanimous favorite SU and the unanimous choice ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio 8-4 12.07 8.04 70.85 4.00 -5.87 San Diego St. 7-5 -0.89 -2.31 65.31 -1.59 -2.09 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio 12.96 Ohio 10.35 Ohio 11.65 Ohio 3 Ohio 5.54 Ohio 5.6 Armed Forces Played in our Frogs humble home of Amon G. (Patterson) Carter Stadium, the Black Kaniggits of the Hudson have been DUSHEE favorites all year, and true to form, DUSHEE likes the Cadets in this game way more than everybody else. That said, the computers all agree that Army should be the favorite in the game while Vegas likes Cougar High. Note that the Army-Navy game is not included in Army's totals as I am writing this before the game has occurred in the space-time continuum. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Army 9-2 11.11 10.61 72.33 6.63 -1.90 Houston 8-4 1.72 -1.70 71.86 3.50 -5.12 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Army 9.40 Army 12.31 Army 10.85 Houston 3 Army 0.47 Army 3.1 First Responder The Smurf Donkeys rebounded from a very bad loss to Oklahoma State early in the year to have a very nice little season, and for that, they get rewarded with a bowl game in the dilapidated Cotton Bowl against a barely .500 ACC team. A reminder of what life was like as a have-not. As with Army, DUSHEE likes Boise far more than anybody else, but Boise is still the unanimous favorite over the Fightin' Fluties. DUSHEE and SRS like the Broncos ATS; Sagarin says to take BC and the points. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Boston Coll. 7-5 2.29 2.94 77.00 4.92 2.07 Boise St. 10-3 15.27 15.43 78.79 8.61 -1.04 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boise St. 12.98 Boise St. 12.49 Boise St. 12.73 Boise St. 2.5 Boise St. 1.79 Boise St. 3.7 Taxslayer I guess this is a good bowl? Seems like agricultural deserves better. Two of their losses were respectable games against the two inarguably best teams in the country and they had the toughest schedule, per DUSHEE, in all of college football. NC State was a schizophrenic team this year, looking like maybe a legitimate challenger to Clemson early in the season with impressive wins over a good Marshall team and what then appeared to be a good Virginia team. Then not so much toward the end of the season as Clemson, Syracuse, and lowly Wake Forest all beat the Wolfpack. This game has one of the larger differentials in schedule strength, and as expected, DUSHEE Extra Crispy likes the Ags a lot more than Original, the latter being more in line with Sagarin and SRS. Agricultural is a unanimous favorite with only Sagarin picking NC State ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Texas A&M 8-4 15.48 23.30 83.06 12.14 10.12 N.C. State 9-3 12.17 9.14 81.22 7.85 -1.82 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas A&M 3.31 Texas A&M 14.15 Texas A&M 8.73 Texas A&M 3 Texas A&M 1.84 Texas A&M 4.3 Sun The Bowl that should hold a soft spot in the heart of every Frog fan this year pits the Frog's bowl opponent from last year against the 7-6 ACC Coastal Division champion. Pitt's SOS puts them as the favorite per DUSHEE Extra Crispy, but everyone else likes the Trees. All the models say to take Pitt and the points except for Sagarin who is exactly on the Vegas spread. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Pittsburgh 7-6 2.23 7.12 73.61 6.14 6.89 Stanford 8-4 4.45 6.51 82.11 8.05 3.09 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Stanford 2.22 Pittsburgh 0.62 Stanford 0.80 Stanford 8.5 Stanford 8.50 Stanford 1.9 All the Rest Bowl DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Cure LA Lafayette 1.37 LA Lafayette 2.69 LA Lafayette 2.03 Tulane 3.5 Tulane 5.70 LA Lafayette 0.4 Las Vegas Fresno St. 12.29 Fresno St. 12.46 Fresno St. 12.38 Fresno St. 3.5 Fresno St. 5.66 Fresno St. 6.0 Camellia East. Michigan 0.01 East. Michigan 1.17 East. Michigan 0.59 East. Michigan 3.5 East. Michigan 0.02 Georgia Southern 3.3 New Orleans Appalachian State 10.60 Appalachian State 8.89 Appalachian State 9.74 Appalachian State 9 Appalachian State 10.35 Appalachian State 7.2 Boca Raton UAB 7.57 UAB 6.56 UAB 7.06 Northern Illinois 1 Northern Illinois 0.44 UAB 0.0 Gasparilla Marshall 10.57 Marshall 11.76 Marshall 11.16 South Florida 2 Marshall 1.57 Marshall 4.3 Bahamas Toledo 3.57 Toledo 4.90 Toledo 4.24 Toledo 4.5 Toledo 7.75 Toledo 1.8 Idaho Potato BYU 7.18 BYU 9.20 BYU 8.19 BYU 14 BYU 7.88 BYU 4.8 Birmingham Memphis 9.23 Memphis 7.32 Memphis 8.28 Memphis 4.5 Memphis 3.24 Memphis 2.1 Dollar General Buffalo 5.67 Buffalo 7.84 Buffalo 6.75 Buffalo 4 Buffalo 1.21 Buffalo 0.7 Hawaii Louisiana Tech 2.96 Louisiana Tech 2.85 Louisiana Tech 2.90 Hawaii 2.5 Louisiana Tech 2.97 Hawaii 4.5 Quick Lane Georgia Tech 2.11 Georgia Tech 0.02 Georgia Tech 1.07 Georgia Tech 3.5 Georgia Tech 3.13 Georgia Tech 1.1 Independence Temple 14.48 Temple 9.76 Temple 12.12 Temple 5 Temple 1.94 Duke 0.0 Pinstripe Miami (FL) 1.61 Miami (FL) 1.27 Miami (FL) 1.44 Miami (FL) 2.5 Miami (FL) 1.87 Miami (FL) 2.6 Music City Auburn 1.03 Auburn 3.03 Auburn 2.03 Auburn 3.5 Auburn 4.48 Auburn 0.5 Belk South Carolina 3.49 South Carolina 9.77 South Carolina 6.63 South Carolina 3.5 South Carolina 5.83 South Carolina 4.1 Arizona Arkansas St. 4.27 Arkansas St. 3.16 Arkansas St. 3.71 Arkansas St. 0 Arkansas St. 0.31 Arkansas St. 3.9 Military Cincinnati 20.56 Cincinnati 19.39 Cincinnati 19.98 Cincinnati 7.5 Cincinnati 5.28 Cincinnati 8.2 Redbox Michigan St. 2.51 Michigan St. 6.08 Michigan St. 4.29 Oregon 1.5 Michigan St. 0.50 Michigan St. 0.5 Holiday Utah 11.31 Utah 12.50 Utah 11.91 Utah 8.5 Utah 7.35 Utah 4.7 Outback Mississippi St. 5.60 Mississippi St. 10.34 Mississippi St. 7.97 Mississippi St. 4 Mississippi St. 1.35 Mississippi St. 0.9 Citrus Penn St. 7.88 Penn St. 5.90 Penn St. 6.89 Penn St. 7 Penn St. 7.46 Penn St. 1.1
  13. Duquesne Frog

    TGBDS: Epic Randomness

    Stay hard, GHW Bush ...
  14. Duquesne Frog

    Coaching Carousel Thread 2018

    His stint at UNM was an insult to dumpster fires ...
  15. Duquesne Frog

    Sciency stuff

    This poster could be found on the walls of young Duquesne's dorm room back in his college days
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