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NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink

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NeFrog in the Kitchen Sink last won the day on December 10 2018

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  1. I haven't seen it, but would be interesting to see a graph of estimated case count in February and early March over time in the hot spots. My guess is that if we were testing like we are now you would see the case spike start even earlier than it was recorded.
  2. Of course I hope you are right, but I my honest opinion is that you are unlikely to be. There is going to be an increase in deaths following this spike. I do think there is good news- it definitely will be nothing on the level of the original outbreak as I do think we are much better at treatment. But the increase in hospitalizations (which really has only been the last week or so) will be followed by an increase in deaths.
  3. Are we going to be hearing a lot from Chris Harrison now?
  4. It is good news and does likely reflect three factors- decreased age of those getting sick, better treatment and the fact that deaths are a "lagging indicator". I know there is a lot of making fun of the 2 week delay, but it is true that deaths typical lag behind case and hospitalization increases. This is not only because the highest mortality-risk cases from an outbreak that end up on vents often are on vents for several weeks, but also because of the logistical delay in reporting that often accompanies a CoVID death. But reason to be optimistic for sure. I do think we are doing a better job treating the sickest patients with more defined treatment protocols, more treatment options and enhanced hospital capacity. As Michael Osterholm (by far my favorite "expert" to follow- very realistic and is willing to admit "what we don't know"- linked his latest podcast which is very informative) says, virus gravity is real. What he means by that is that it will find susceptible individuals. So when the rate of infection in young people is high, the rate of infection in older and susceptible individuals will eventually follow suit; we can't insulate the at risk population. So our best bet is to continue to do the things to keep spread low while we develop better treatment, buy time for vaccine development, learn more about the biology of virus and develop better public health measures with the goal of protecting the at risk in our society.
  5. Chuba Hubbard making some news: https://www.fox23.com/sports/osus-chuba-hubbard-i-will-not-be-doing-anything-with-oklahoma-state-until-things-change/SPRVVL6HQJDIJJRI3TBLNQVEPM/
  6. Well, it means I'm more likely to select Ezekiel in fantasy football! Less likely to miss time!
  7. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V
  8. A negative result is highly reliable, regardless of the test. If you test negative, you can be confident you have not had CoVID. Interpreting a positive result is more difficult, because of the risk of false positives. Plus, while a true positive means you had CoVID, we don't know what it means in terms of immunity, yet. We don't know whether antibodies are neutralizing (like the antibodies people develop to Measles) or have no effect (like the antibodies people develop to HIV) or somewhere in between (like the antibodies to influenza). Or how long they last. As far as the risk for a false positives, it depends on the specificity of the test and the prevalence of disease in the population tested. Specificity is the true positive rate. There are some bad antibody tests out there with a specificity in the 70% range, meaning 3 out of 10 tests are false positive. They are useless. But even a test with a specificity in the 95% it depends on the prevalence of disease. Lets say 5% of a population has antibodies. A 95% specific test will spew out 5 false positives for every 100 people tested. If 5 out of 100 people have antibodies (true positives), that means that the chance a positive test is a true positive (aka "positive predictive value") is about 50% (i.e. of the 100 tested, 5 people have a true positive, 5 people have a false positive test). That said there are some really good tests out there with specificities in the high 99% range (don't believe the ones that say 100%- no test is 100%). The FDA has all these tabulated here: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance It gives the sensitivities, specificities, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) for each test. If you are negative, don't even look at this. NPV is above 99.5% for all tests. If you are positive, look at what test they used. I think most non-NY places a prevalence of about 5% is reasonable. So if they used the ABbott Architect, you could be 92.9% sure you had CoVID. If it was Cellex, it is only 55.2% chance it is a true positive. One more caveat- If you were sick with a flu like, stay at home in bed illness and tested negative for the flu in March, your pretest probability may be higher than 5%, in which case PPV also goes up. But just a sore throat and headache that everyone gets probably doesn't bump up the PPV. Again the caveat is that we don't know what a true positive means in terms of immunity means (should continue to act like not immune in terms of wearing masks/PPE, social distancing, etc).
  9. Testing shortage is even worse than portrayed in press. ARUP, Labcorp, Quest, Mayo completely overwhelmed and most not accepting samples today. State labs overwhelmed. Drive by testing rapidly increasing samples and they aren't ready for the volume. Unless you are really, really sick you won't be able to be tested.
  10. 3 games minimum left. Maximum, something like 12. 2 regular season and I’m going to assume 3 post season games for 5 more games. So assuming current averages, Desmond probably ends up #3 in scoring, anywhere from 5th to 7th in steals, #1 in 3P FG made, And # 10 in assists.
  11. That 18-1 run to go from down 4 to up 13 is the greatest run in TCU basketball history.
  12. That was our best win of the year because we did it from the inside and at the foul line in a game Bane had an off night. Solid defense, especially in overtime. Obviously Samuel the player of the game. Just an impressive performance on both ends of the floor. Seems like the game might be slowing down a little for Fuller. Nembhard at point is growing on me. Not a natural fit but seems to give opposing defenses trouble. Hopefully Farabello is OK.
  13. Bane obviously the mvp of the game but Grayer a close second.
  14. Lost our mojo. Feel bad for the kids. They just can’t handle pressure D and opposing team are taking advantage.
  15. Manchin to vote convict so no Dems to acquit.
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