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  1. 2 points
    It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season. DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done. The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread. And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening lines set back in early December. Here is how the models did: Model SU ATS DUSHEE O 19 - 19 20 - 18 DUSHEE XC 18 - 20 18 - 20 Sagarin 19 - 19 27 - 11 SRS 19 - 19 25 - 13 Vegas 15 - 23 If you bet using Sagarin or SRS, you made out pretty well during bowl season. If you used DUSHEE, well, let me reiterate that gambling is a vice and the author does not promote or encourage sports betting of any kind. Now my high school football coaches, forever wise, once taught me that excuses are like assholes and elbows ... everybody's got them and mine stink. I'm not sure why my elbows smelled so badly, but I can nonetheless offer a few qualitative reasons for why the bowls are hard to pick. One, in the modern era where NFL hopefuls sit out the bowls, it is easy to argue that not all the teams have the same talent level they had when their regular season performance was measured. One can imagine a way of trying to account for this similar to the WAR metric used in baseball, but ain't nobody got time for that. West Virginia and Michigan both took pretty big hits to their personnel so it was quite predictable they would underperform compared to the regular season. Two, is impossible to quantify the motivation teams have going into exhibition games that the CFP has probably made even less relevant than they used to be. I mean, OBVIOUSLY the SEC was totally not into their games against opponents from all those other slummy conferences ... All of that said, Sagarin and SRS also were only accounting for regular season performance and they did quite well picking winners against the spread. But then, DUSHEE did quite well during the regular season. And DUSHEE has done much better in other bowl seasons. So I'm going to dismiss this bowl season as a fluke. Dealers' prerogative ... Best and Worst Bowl Performances Top 6 59.87 Army vs. Houston 52.38 Texas A&M vs. NC State 52.37 Auburn vs. Purdue 51.88 Clemson vs. Alabama 51.38 Utah State vs. N. Texas 49.09 Clemson vs. Notre Dame I posted the top 6 just to show how friggin' impressive Clemson was in the two playoff games, averaging 50 point better than an average team against, supposedly, two of the four best teams in the country. Bottom 3 -46.27 Purdue vs. Auburn -43.17 Houston vs. Army -39.03 Temple vs. Duke Conference Ratings The Big XII-II leapt back over the B1G as the second best conference in college football, after what was by all accounts a pretty mediocre year for the conference. Despite the relatively poor bowl showing, the SEC is still well ahead of everybody else. The only reason why the ACC had a positive number was because Clemson was in the conference, otherwise the conference only marginally better than the MWC. And the American ends up behind the Mountain West as the best "Group of 5." Please change your marketing campaign, American Athletic Conference ... SEC 10.19 B12 3.94 B10 3.58 ACC 1.41 P12 0.65 MWC -2.60 AAC -4.87 CUSA -5.98 SBC -6.41 MAC -6.43 Final Overall Ratings Post-Bowl Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 1 2.11 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 -1 -2.44 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 0 -3.11 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 0 -2.84 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 0 0.07 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 0 -0.03 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 0 -1.02 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 4 2.57 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 3.23 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 8 1.91 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 -2 -1.63 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 1 -0.01 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 1 -0.03 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 -3 -0.87 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 -7 -3.38 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 1 0.71 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 -7 -2.44 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 10 4.33 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 -4 -1.68 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 -1 -0.46 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 -5 -1.89 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 1 0.57 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 1 0.43 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 3 1.39 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 -5 -1.84 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 4 3.19 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 -2 -1.84 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 7 2.21 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 -7 -3.45 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 4 1.06 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 0 -0.32 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 4 1.18 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 5 0.63 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 7 0.97 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 -9 -5.33 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 10 1.77 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 0 -0.36 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 -9 -2.51 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 4 0.10 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 -1 -1.08 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 -9 -2.13 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 16 1.63 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 2 -0.88 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 7 0.45 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 -5 -2.41 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 -13 -4.10 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 -5 -2.20 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 -1 -1.03 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 -1 -1.09 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 2 -0.49 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 2 -0.08 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 13 1.40 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 6 0.26 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 -10 -2.38 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 1 -0.26 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 7 0.40 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 3 0.11 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 -1 -0.55 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 -5 -0.78 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 8 1.28 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 23 4.32 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 -12 -2.20 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 -14 -2.32 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 -9 -1.50 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 2 0.26 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 5 0.50 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 -5 -1.16 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 -2 -0.27 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 -5 -0.74 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 0 -0.12 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 -2 -0.81 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 1 -0.22 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 -1 -0.84 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 4 0.55 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 -1 -0.77 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 -1 -1.18 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 0 -0.57 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 -17 -4.15 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 6 1.07 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 -1 -0.49 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 8 1.67 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 5 1.20 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 -7 -1.35 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 -4 -0.65 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 -3 -0.74 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 5 1.63 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 -1 -0.49 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 0 -0.29 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 3 1.41 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 -9 -2.48 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 -1 -0.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 -9 -2.42 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 1 -0.03 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 -1 -1.06 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 4 -0.34 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 4 -0.17 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 0 -0.87 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 -3 -1.68 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 2 0.24 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 -2 -1.18 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 -5 -1.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 0 -0.75 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46 0 -0.40 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 1 -0.80 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 2 0.37 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 -2 -1.66 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 -1 0.13 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 0 -0.21 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 3 0.68 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 -1 -0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 0 -0.51 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 -2 -0.85 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 1 0.06 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 2 0.22 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 -2 -0.35 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 -1 -0.32 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 0 -0.12 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 0 -0.23 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 0 -0.63 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 0 -0.55 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 0 -0.03 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 0 -0.21 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 2 0.05 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 0 -0.31 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 -2 -0.67 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 1 -0.37 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 -1 -0.87 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 0 0.09 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 0 0.52 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 0 -0.90 By Conference AAC 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 ACC 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 B1G 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 CUSA 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 Indies 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 MAC 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 MWC 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 P12 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 SBC 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 SEC 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46
  2. 1 point
    No change in the top 6 of this week's DUSHEE, although Ohio State allowing 21 to sadsack Rutgers helped close the gap between them and #2 Clemson to almost 9 points. DUSHEE still has the Buckeyes as the easy favorites to win the NC, but not as easy as they were. The Frogs dropped 3 spots to 28th as DUSHEE had Tech as a pretty mediocre team and the Frogs struggled to beat them. Obviously a win is a win, but in DUSHEE-world, a close loss to a good team is generally rewarded more than a close win against a so-so team. DUSHEE score the Tech and K-State games almost equivalently. App. St., Boise, and A&M all climbed into the top 25 this week, App. St. jumping 9 spots after thrashing the Georgia State team that beat Tennessee early in the season. Utah, Notre Dame, and Clemson all improved their scores by more than 2 points while Ohio State and Navy both dropped more than 3 points. The largest overall movers were We Are Marshall (up 23 spots to 51st), South Alabama (up 5.09 points in a close loss to a good Louisiana-Lafayette team), and Duke (down 17 spots and 4.61 points after getting destroyed by a bad Syracuse team). Special mention goes out to Tennessee and Virginia Tech who have climbed to 46th and 56th, respectively, after being as low as 110th (Week 5) and 112th (Week 9). VaTech has moved up 56 spots in 3 weeks. Maybe Justin Fuente won't get fired after all. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU @ KSU Tex | @ OkSt Bay @ Ttech PD: 19.67 10.44 30.00 | -15.38 -0.14 18.00 | -2.13 6.38 1.63 YD: 192.22 131.44 396.50 | -3.38 122.57 -19.56 | 37.75 94.13 94.50 Score(O): 21.85 12.94 38.03 | -10.40 5.48 11.11 | 0.30 8.53 5.38 Score(XC): 23.14 11.84 29.27 | -4.88 7.91 10.50 | 3.61 7.79 7.40 DUSHEE is not bullish for the Frogs chances against Oklahoma. TCU has only twice scored higher (Purdue and Kansas) than OU's worst performance, which was Iowa State two weeks ago. DUSHEE has OU as a 20-point favorite at home, giving a the Frogs a 13% chance of winning, about 1-in-8. There's a chance, but it's not a good one. Frogs' Next Opponent, OK Boomer Opp: Hou @ UCLA Ttech | @ Kan # Tex WVU | ISU @ Bay PD: 13.38 30.00 43.25 | 16.50 14.67 30.00 | 13.88 16.50 YD: 214.38 276.56 320.63 | 100.63 286.00 248.50 | 139.50 305.63 Score(O): 18.67 32.58 43.41 | 15.58 22.78 31.30 | 15.59 24.90 Score(XC): 16.27 34.36 40.21 | 17.03 24.12 27.99 | 15.99 28.74 Top/Bottom 3 Performances +56.17 Clemson vs. Wake (+49 MOV, +397 YM) +43.07 Notre Dame vs. Navy (+32, +55) +40.35 Utah vs. UCLA (+46, +278) -48.61 Duke vs. Syr (-43, -135) -48.15 Bowling Green at MiaOh (-41, -139) -47.88 Georgia Tech vs. VaTech (-45, -335) Overall Ratings Week 12 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St. 44.68 355.34 45.94 0 -3.27 2 Clemson 34.20 302.78 36.57 0 2.66 3 Wisconsin 28.68 239.28 30.00 0 -2.17 4 Alabama 29.01 198.40 28.36 0 -0.40 5 LSU 27.00 196.25 26.92 0 -1.39 6 Oklahoma 22.27 236.48 25.60 0 -1.73 7 Utah 25.01 190.64 25.34 2 2.17 8 Georgia 23.02 179.23 23.49 -1 -1.35 9 Penn St. 24.00 134.98 22.14 -1 -2.10 10 Oregon 23.12 134.09 21.51 0 -0.07 _________________________________________ 11 Michigan 21.37 151.93 21.15 2 0.94 12 Auburn 21.35 148.42 20.98 -1 -0.54 13 Iowa St. 16.97 168.48 18.97 -1 -1.45 14 Notre Dame 19.90 122.34 18.83 3 2.99 15 Florida 18.23 126.38 17.90 0 -0.17 16 Iowa 16.42 98.94 15.44 2 0.78 17 Minnesota 15.57 110.62 15.41 -1 -0.57 18 Navy 13.81 125.74 14.93 -4 -3.31 19 Air Force 13.33 112.32 13.99 0 -0.65 20 Memphis 13.93 87.91 13.28 1 -0.42 _________________________________________ 21 Baylor 13.67 90.32 13.22 1 0.50 22 Appalachian State 13.74 78.05 12.71 9 2.07 23 Boise St. 11.71 100.98 12.40 5 0.94 24 Texas A&M 11.04 103.13 12.05 3 0.57 25 Washington 13.48 65.47 11.97 -1 0.13 26 LA Lafayette 12.03 67.29 11.08 -6 -3.44 27 Texas 12.06 53.28 10.47 -1 -1.13 28 TCU 7.61 116.24 10.36 -3 -1.28 29 UCF 9.88 79.61 10.21 1 -0.55 30 SMU 9.01 87.07 9.96 2 0.06 _________________________________________ 31 Florida Atlantic 11.03 46.55 9.47 4 0.44 32 Michigan St. 6.95 97.02 9.04 -9 -3.05 33 Cincinnati 10.50 30.48 8.38 -4 -2.63 34 Indiana 5.72 99.50 8.34 3 0.66 35 Oklahoma St. 7.83 67.67 8.29 1 -0.52 36 Washington St. 7.50 35.65 6.62 4 1.03 37 Tulane 5.59 63.65 6.62 -4 -3.09 38 North Carolina 4.12 80.20 6.39 -4 -2.97 39 Miami (FL) 5.41 50.85 5.92 4 0.54 40 Southern Miss 3.07 83.46 5.84 -2 -1.05 _________________________________________ 41 USC 6.08 32.60 5.54 4 0.95 42 Pittsburgh 2.44 81.63 5.34 2 0.20 43 Mississippi St. 3.76 52.25 4.89 -2 -0.66 44 Missouri 2.93 58.19 4.60 -5 -1.50 45 West. Kentucky 3.06 38.69 3.80 4 0.76 46 Tennessee 2.18 42.67 3.39 1 -0.69 47 BYU 2.31 28.08 2.82 8 1.27 48 Louisiana Tech 2.84 15.35 2.59 -6 -2.90 49 Virginia 3.46 2.51 2.42 -1 -0.70 50 Nebraska 0.73 42.00 2.39 6 1.47 _________________________________________ 51 Marshall 1.46 31.03 2.38 23 4.77 52 Mississippi 1.14 28.01 2.04 0 -0.07 53 Buffalo -0.65 52.23 1.94 0 0.05 54 Kansas St. 4.03 -25.78 1.51 -8 -3.05 55 Tulsa -0.01 27.89 1.26 -4 -1.05 56 Virginia Tech 3.74 -36.34 0.84 19 3.53 57 Louisville 0.94 4.04 0.81 -3 -1.01 58 Kentucky -0.78 20.73 0.42 1 0.36 59 Army 1.04 -11.36 0.17 -1 -0.25 60 South Carolina -0.54 7.50 -0.02 -10 -2.62 _________________________________________ 61 Temple -0.57 6.34 -0.09 12 1.96 62 W. Michigan 0.81 -14.70 -0.13 4 0.95 63 Florida St. 1.58 -28.48 -0.24 -1 0.48 64 San Diego St. -1.18 11.94 -0.25 5 1.27 65 Wake Forest 1.55 -31.37 -0.40 -4 -0.43 66 Hawaii -3.45 35.03 -0.71 -2 0.17 67 Ball St. -0.65 -9.39 -0.86 5 1.18 68 Cent. Michigan -4.44 39.45 -1.16 0 0.35 69 Wyoming 2.43 -62.47 -1.22 -12 -2.00 70 UAB -5.04 36.51 -1.70 6 1.49 _________________________________________ 71 Houston -0.06 -41.85 -1.94 -11 -1.99 72 Arizona St. -0.01 -43.31 -1.98 -7 -1.02 73 Texas Tech -0.68 -34.56 -2.03 -6 -0.86 74 Ohio -1.91 -32.90 -2.77 8 1.77 75 Troy -3.31 -13.70 -2.83 8 1.84 76 Utah St. -2.03 -41.69 -3.25 5 0.80 77 UCLA -3.56 -21.55 -3.35 -14 -2.53 78 California 0.73 -90.66 -3.64 -7 -1.76 79 Illinois 1.52 -102.38 -3.64 -2 -0.44 80 Fresno St. -2.57 -53.91 -4.16 -1 -0.57 _________________________________________ 81 Georgia Southern -1.57 -71.81 -4.31 4 1.41 82 Georgia State -5.47 -16.23 -4.39 -4 -1.17 83 Arkansas St. -4.00 -50.63 -4.97 -3 -0.96 84 Boston Coll. -3.74 -56.11 -5.04 3 0.86 85 Oregon St. -3.93 -70.32 -5.82 1 0.07 86 UNC-Charlotte -7.93 -19.53 -6.17 5 0.57 87 Duke -5.84 -54.02 -6.35 -17 -4.61 88 Stanford -5.99 -52.09 -6.36 -4 -1.01 89 Miami (OH) -4.70 -74.82 -6.54 5 1.58 90 South Florida -8.50 -19.32 -6.55 5 1.68 _________________________________________ 91 Purdue -5.04 -72.60 -6.66 -2 -0.26 92 North Texas -8.59 -28.74 -7.03 -4 -0.65 93 San Jose St. -7.13 -52.78 -7.15 0 0.41 94 Colorado -7.25 -54.12 -7.30 -2 -0.53 95 Northwestern -8.53 -37.11 -7.37 -5 -0.86 96 East. Michigan -7.19 -76.34 -8.27 8 1.98 97 Colorado St. -11.75 -10.16 -8.30 1 0.81 98 Syracuse -6.08 -97.87 -8.50 15 5.01 99 Coastal Carolina -7.89 -72.42 -8.55 4 1.45 100 West Virginia -8.27 -69.70 -8.68 -4 0.13 _________________________________________ 101 Arizona -10.17 -54.54 -9.26 -4 -0.17 102 Florida Intl. -9.03 -79.68 -9.65 -3 -0.51 103 Middle Tenn. St. -9.48 -82.11 -10.05 -2 -0.37 104 Toledo -10.37 -79.19 -10.51 3 1.49 105 Kansas -8.79 -103.25 -10.55 -5 -0.94 106 Liberty -10.95 -78.48 -10.87 -1 0.10 107 Northern Illinois -11.62 -71.10 -10.98 4 1.44 108 Maryland -9.30 -123.72 -11.83 1 0.22 109 N.C. State -13.41 -64.01 -11.85 -1 0.18 110 Arkansas -12.61 -86.74 -12.35 0 -0.21 _________________________________________ 111 Rice -12.15 -104.33 -12.84 -5 -0.96 112 LA Monroe -14.24 -83.31 -13.28 0 -0.76 113 Kent St. -10.87 -136.81 -13.47 2 2.38 114 Georgia Tech -13.62 -106.98 -13.95 -12 -4.11 115 East Carolina -14.05 -102.12 -14.01 -1 -0.46 116 South Alabama -17.64 -133.39 -17.82 7 5.09 117 New Mexico -20.28 -101.62 -18.14 0 -0.22 118 Old Dominion -16.66 -155.13 -18.16 2 1.51 119 Nevada -18.63 -126.94 -18.19 -1 0.39 120 Texas St. -19.20 -121.64 -18.33 -4 -0.90 _________________________________________ 121 UNLV -19.31 -136.24 -19.07 0 0.76 122 UT-San Antonio -22.20 -143.80 -21.34 0 1.49 123 Rutgers -20.66 -168.32 -21.42 1 2.49 124 Vanderbilt -20.05 -179.46 -21.53 -5 -2.01 125 New Mexico St. -25.89 -166.40 -24.82 0 0.23 126 UTEP -24.85 -184.28 -24.94 1 0.67 127 Connecticut -27.11 -186.93 -26.57 -1 -1.08 128 Bowling Green -28.88 -228.83 -29.66 0 -2.44 129 Akron -35.02 -210.22 -32.91 0 0.60 130 Massachusetts -46.63 -349.15 -46.96 0 -0.33 By Conference AAC 18 Navy 13.81 125.74 14.93 20 Memphis 13.93 87.91 13.28 29 UCF 9.88 79.61 10.21 30 SMU 9.01 87.07 9.96 33 Cincinnati 10.50 30.48 8.38 37 Tulane 5.59 63.65 6.62 55 Tulsa -0.01 27.89 1.26 61 Temple -0.57 6.34 -0.09 71 Houston -0.06 -41.85 -1.94 90 South Florida -8.50 -19.32 -6.55 115 East Carolina -14.05 -102.12 -14.01 127 Connecticut -27.11 -186.93 -26.57 ACC 2 Clemson 34.20 302.78 36.57 38 North Carolina 4.12 80.20 6.39 39 Miami (FL) 5.41 50.85 5.92 42 Pittsburgh 2.44 81.63 5.34 49 Virginia 3.46 2.51 2.42 56 Virginia Tech 3.74 -36.34 0.84 57 Louisville 0.94 4.04 0.81 63 Florida St. 1.58 -28.48 -0.24 65 Wake Forest 1.55 -31.37 -0.40 84 Boston Coll. -3.74 -56.11 -5.04 87 Duke -5.84 -54.02 -6.35 98 Syracuse -6.08 -97.87 -8.50 109 N.C. State -13.41 -64.01 -11.85 114 Georgia Tech -13.62 -106.98 -13.95 B1G 1 Ohio St. 44.68 355.34 45.94 3 Wisconsin 28.68 239.28 30.00 9 Penn St. 24.00 134.98 22.14 11 Michigan 21.37 151.93 21.15 16 Iowa 16.42 98.94 15.44 17 Minnesota 15.57 110.62 15.41 32 Michigan St. 6.95 97.02 9.04 34 Indiana 5.72 99.50 8.34 50 Nebraska 0.73 42.00 2.39 79 Illinois 1.52 -102.38 -3.64 91 Purdue -5.04 -72.60 -6.66 95 Northwestern -8.53 -37.11 -7.37 108 Maryland -9.30 -123.72 -11.83 123 Rutgers -20.66 -168.32 -21.42 BXII-II 6 Oklahoma 22.27 236.48 25.60 13 Iowa St. 16.97 168.48 18.97 21 Baylor 13.67 90.32 13.22 27 Texas 12.06 53.28 10.47 28 TCU 7.61 116.24 10.36 35 Oklahoma St. 7.83 67.67 8.29 54 Kansas St. 4.03 -25.78 1.51 73 Texas Tech -0.68 -34.56 -2.03 100 West Virginia -8.27 -69.70 -8.68 105 Kansas -8.79 -103.25 -10.55 CUSA 31 Florida Atlantic 11.03 46.55 9.47 40 Southern Miss 3.07 83.46 5.84 45 West. Kentucky 3.06 38.69 3.80 48 Louisiana Tech 2.84 15.35 2.59 51 Marshall 1.46 31.03 2.38 70 UAB -5.04 36.51 -1.70 86 UNC-Charlotte -7.93 -19.53 -6.17 92 North Texas -8.59 -28.74 -7.03 102 Florida Intl. -9.03 -79.68 -9.65 103 Middle Tenn. St. -9.48 -82.11 -10.05 111 Rice -12.15 -104.33 -12.84 118 Old Dominion -16.66 -155.13 -18.16 122 UT-San Antonio -22.20 -143.80 -21.34 126 UTEP -24.85 -184.28 -24.94 Indies 14 Notre Dame 19.90 122.34 18.83 47 BYU 2.31 28.08 2.82 59 Army 1.04 -11.36 0.17 106 Liberty -10.95 -78.48 -10.87 125 New Mexico St. -25.89 -166.40 -24.82 130 Massachusetts -46.63 -349.15 -46.96 MAC 53 Buffalo -0.65 52.23 1.94 62 W. Michigan 0.81 -14.70 -0.13 67 Ball St. -0.65 -9.39 -0.86 68 Cent. Michigan -4.44 39.45 -1.16 74 Ohio -1.91 -32.90 -2.77 89 Miami (OH) -4.70 -74.82 -6.54 96 East. Michigan -7.19 -76.34 -8.27 104 Toledo -10.37 -79.19 -10.51 107 Northern Illinois -11.62 -71.10 -10.98 113 Kent St. -10.87 -136.81 -13.47 128 Bowling Green -28.88 -228.83 -29.66 129 Akron -35.02 -210.22 -32.91 MWC 19 Air Force 13.33 112.32 13.99 23 Boise St. 11.71 100.98 12.40 64 San Diego St. -1.18 11.94 -0.25 66 Hawaii -3.45 35.03 -0.71 69 Wyoming 2.43 -62.47 -1.22 76 Utah St. -2.03 -41.69 -3.25 80 Fresno St. -2.57 -53.91 -4.16 93 San Jose St. -7.13 -52.78 -7.15 97 Colorado St. -11.75 -10.16 -8.30 117 New Mexico -20.28 -101.62 -18.14 119 Nevada -18.63 -126.94 -18.19 121 UNLV -19.31 -136.24 -19.07 P12 7 Utah 25.01 190.64 25.34 10 Oregon 23.12 134.09 21.51 25 Washington 13.48 65.47 11.97 36 Washington St. 7.50 35.65 6.62 41 USC 6.08 32.60 5.54 72 Arizona St. -0.01 -43.31 -1.98 77 UCLA -3.56 -21.55 -3.35 78 California 0.73 -90.66 -3.64 85 Oregon St. -3.93 -70.32 -5.82 88 Stanford -5.99 -52.09 -6.36 94 Colorado -7.25 -54.12 -7.30 101 Arizona -10.17 -54.54 -9.26 SBC 22 Appalachian State 13.74 78.05 12.71 26 LA Lafayette 12.03 67.29 11.08 75 Troy -3.31 -13.70 -2.83 81 Georgia Southern -1.57 -71.81 -4.31 82 Georgia State -5.47 -16.23 -4.39 83 Arkansas St. -4.00 -50.63 -4.97 99 Coastal Carolina -7.89 -72.42 -8.55 112 LA Monroe -14.24 -83.31 -13.28 116 South Alabama -17.64 -133.39 -17.82 120 Texas St. -19.20 -121.64 -18.33 SEC 4 Alabama 29.01 198.40 28.36 5 LSU 27.00 196.25 26.92 8 Georgia 23.02 179.23 23.49 12 Auburn 21.35 148.42 20.98 15 Florida 18.23 126.38 17.90 24 Texas A&M 11.04 103.13 12.05 43 Mississippi St. 3.76 52.25 4.89 44 Missouri 2.93 58.19 4.60 46 Tennessee 2.18 42.67 3.39 52 Mississippi 1.14 28.01 2.04 58 Kentucky -0.78 20.73 0.42 60 South Carolina -0.54 7.50 -0.02 110 Arkansas -12.61 -86.74 -12.35 124 Vanderbilt -20.05 -179.46 -21.53 Xtra-Crispy Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Ohio St. 44.87 355.56 46.12 2 Clemson 34.35 296.45 36.41 3 Wisconsin 28.35 226.82 29.23 4 Alabama 28.93 195.19 28.18 5 LSU 26.82 191.19 26.59 6 Oklahoma 22.17 237.81 25.62 7 Utah 25.09 190.52 25.41 8 Georgia 23.04 174.01 23.29 9 Auburn 21.40 157.60 21.45 10 Penn St. 23.85 119.21 21.34 ___________________________ 11 Michigan 21.14 150.73 20.96 12 Oregon 22.50 128.02 20.83 13 Notre Dame 19.99 127.52 19.14 14 Iowa St. 16.78 168.43 18.86 15 Florida 18.14 126.93 17.88 16 Minnesota 15.56 111.32 15.45 17 Navy 14.14 125.81 15.16 18 Iowa 16.30 89.84 14.96 19 Air Force 13.28 107.32 13.74 20 Memphis 13.87 91.21 13.40 ___________________________ 21 Baylor 13.72 91.02 13.30 22 Washington 13.82 82.77 12.98 23 Texas A&M 11.19 115.93 12.74 24 Appalachian State 13.69 75.07 12.55 25 Boise St. 11.72 98.27 12.29 26 LA Lafayette 12.07 66.19 11.06 27 Texas 11.75 56.88 10.43 28 TCU 7.60 107.14 9.95 29 Florida Atlantic 11.39 48.03 9.78 30 UCF 9.49 75.03 9.75 ___________________________ 31 SMU 8.98 80.86 9.67 32 Michigan St. 6.72 97.83 8.94 33 Cincinnati 10.29 40.75 8.72 34 Oklahoma St. 7.89 65.83 8.26 35 Indiana 5.78 93.05 8.09 36 Washington St. 7.63 38.08 6.82 37 Tulane 5.59 60.84 6.50 38 North Carolina 3.74 82.35 6.25 39 Miami (FL) 5.68 52.87 6.19 40 USC 6.82 33.29 6.06 ___________________________ 41 Southern Miss 2.55 82.48 5.46 42 Pittsburgh 2.45 80.25 5.29 43 Mississippi St. 3.70 57.36 5.08 44 Missouri 2.79 64.45 4.80 45 West. Kentucky 3.26 42.65 4.11 46 Tennessee 1.99 43.41 3.31 47 Marshall 1.43 42.75 2.90 48 BYU 2.29 29.26 2.86 49 Louisiana Tech 2.91 12.87 2.53 50 Virginia 3.34 4.37 2.43 ___________________________ 51 Mississippi 1.18 23.70 1.87 52 Nebraska 0.40 33.95 1.81 53 Tulsa 0.16 35.12 1.71 54 Buffalo -0.95 51.30 1.71 55 Virginia Tech 5.43 -44.50 1.59 56 Kansas St. 3.93 -27.92 1.35 57 Louisville 0.94 6.45 0.92 58 Kentucky -0.79 27.42 0.73 59 Temple -0.59 22.98 0.65 60 South Carolina -0.52 6.71 -0.04 ___________________________ 61 Army 0.90 -14.75 -0.07 62 Florida St. 1.63 -27.18 -0.15 63 San Diego St. -1.12 9.78 -0.30 64 Wake Forest 1.44 -34.90 -0.63 65 Cent. Michigan -4.64 43.18 -1.13 66 Wyoming 2.40 -59.91 -1.13 67 W. Michigan 0.67 -36.57 -1.22 68 Hawaii -4.13 31.31 -1.32 69 Ball St. -1.06 -15.68 -1.42 70 UAB -4.70 36.51 -1.47 ___________________________ 71 Houston -0.07 -33.38 -1.57 72 Texas Tech -0.50 -39.30 -2.12 73 Arizona St. -0.02 -46.79 -2.14 74 Utah St. -1.78 -33.64 -2.72 75 Ohio -1.95 -31.18 -2.72 76 Troy -3.15 -19.93 -3.01 77 Illinois 1.45 -91.24 -3.19 78 UCLA -3.46 -28.02 -3.59 79 California 0.74 -89.78 -3.60 80 Arkansas St. -3.53 -32.05 -3.82 ___________________________ 81 Georgia State -5.08 -9.95 -3.84 82 Georgia Southern -1.29 -68.63 -3.99 83 Fresno St. -2.62 -55.77 -4.29 84 Boston Coll. -3.68 -57.55 -5.08 85 Oregon St. -3.87 -65.08 -5.54 86 UNC-Charlotte -7.84 -16.20 -5.97 87 Purdue -5.05 -60.46 -6.12 88 Miami (OH) -4.68 -75.62 -6.57 89 Stanford -6.06 -56.11 -6.60 90 Duke -6.15 -56.74 -6.69 ___________________________ 91 South Florida -8.50 -26.54 -6.88 92 San Jose St. -7.08 -50.71 -7.03 93 Colorado -7.26 -52.88 -7.25 94 North Texas -8.96 -29.22 -7.30 95 Syracuse -5.20 -85.97 -7.38 96 Northwestern -8.53 -37.48 -7.40 97 Colorado St. -11.53 -1.63 -7.76 98 Coastal Carolina -7.81 -67.88 -8.30 99 East. Michigan -7.12 -83.84 -8.57 100 West Virginia -8.23 -70.67 -8.71 ___________________________ 101 Arizona -10.28 -54.88 -9.35 102 Florida Intl. -8.71 -79.96 -9.45 103 Toledo -9.84 -73.42 -9.91 104 Kansas -8.92 -89.30 -10.01 105 Middle Tenn. St. -10.13 -75.87 -10.21 106 Northern Illinois -11.55 -64.40 -10.64 107 Liberty -11.16 -93.34 -11.70 108 Maryland -10.28 -114.34 -12.06 109 N.C. State -13.66 -66.35 -12.13 110 Arkansas -12.73 -81.64 -12.21 ___________________________ 111 Rice -12.10 -108.26 -13.00 112 LA Monroe -14.02 -83.13 -13.13 113 Georgia Tech -13.45 -96.92 -13.38 114 Kent St. -11.03 -154.62 -14.40 115 East Carolina -13.81 -114.42 -14.42 116 Nevada -17.94 -126.43 -17.72 117 New Mexico -20.26 -102.04 -18.16 118 Old Dominion -16.61 -158.09 -18.28 119 Texas St. -19.27 -125.85 -18.58 120 South Alabama -17.76 -150.41 -18.69 ___________________________ 121 UNLV -19.51 -138.04 -19.30 122 Rutgers -20.39 -158.88 -20.84 123 UT-San Antonio -21.89 -143.98 -21.15 124 Vanderbilt -20.06 -180.15 -21.58 125 New Mexico St. -25.77 -164.55 -24.68 126 UTEP -24.84 -182.82 -24.89 127 Connecticut -27.22 -192.27 -26.91 128 Bowling Green -29.39 -225.38 -29.86 129 Akron -34.98 -225.30 -33.58 130 Massachusetts -46.81 -349.77 -47.14
  3. 1 point
    I know by the calamitous rancor that dominated these pages over the last week that everyone is super upset I didn't post DUSHEE last week. Apologies, but last week was my first week at a new job and things were a little busy. And I'm trying to get off on a good foot, so spending 15 minutes to post a blog on a college football fan site seemed like it might be a bad idea. So this comes at you from home ... DUSHEE is still a fan of the Frogs, who come in at 20 after defeating the Horns in Ft. Worth. Ohio State is more than 2 TDs better than any other team in the country after obliterating former #2 Wisconsin (who falls only to 3). The biggest climbers of the week were Middle Tennessee St., who leapt almost 9.5 points after beating FIU by 33 points, and the Ohio Bobcats, who climbed 24 spots. Minnesota was the big mover in the top 25, jumping 13 spots to 15. The biggest fallers were Notre Dame who fell more than 6.5 points and Florida International who fell 26 spots. TCU Week-to-Week Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU @ KSU Tex PD: 18.43 14.00 35.33 | -12.33 -0.20 20.14 YD: 189.57 158.43 449.83 | 12.17 77.80 -23.14 Score: 20.93 16.56 44.08 | -7.67 3.43 12.37 So the Texas win was big, second highest in point differential for the Frogs (behind Kansas who has looked better than pathetic since), but was a year low in yardage differential. That dropped the DUSHEE score to better than Iowa St. and Kansas St., but below even the SMU loss. Not that Texas was a worse outcome, it certainly wasn't, but it indicated that DUSHEE thought the Frogs were a little lucky to beat Texas (4 INTs worth of luck) and very unlucky to have lost to SMU (two fumbles in the SMU red zone worth of unluck) Opponent Next Week: Okie Lite Opp: @ OreSt @ Tulsa @ Tex | KSU @ Ttech Bay | @ ISU PD: 10.00 13.17 1.86 | 23.80 -15.67 -1.80 | 25.00 YD: 72.40 118.00 -3.71 | 289.00 -158.83 68.40 | 81.00 Score: 9.97 14.16 1.07 | 30.57 -17.69 1.92 | 20.36 The Cowboys have looked great against two teams the Frogs looked terrible against, Kansas State and Iowa State. However, the Frogs were much better than the Cowboys against Texas. The Fightin' Mullets are ranked 36th in DUSHEE. DUSHEE likes the Frogs by about 2 points on the road, with about a 54% chance of winning. The game is basically a toss-up. Top/Bottom Performances of the Week Since I missed last week, I'll catch up Week 8 Top 3 +39.95 - Memphis vs. Tulane (+30 MOV, +166 YM) +38.94 - Appalachian St. vs. ULaMon (+45, +375) +38.66 - Ohio St. at Northwestern (+49, +290) Bottom 3 -43.16 Toledo at Ball (-38, -273) -34.73 Louisiana Monroe at AppSt (-45, -375) -34.27 Stanford vs. UCLA (-18, -273) Week 9 Top 3 +63.50 - Ohio St. vs. Wiscy (+31, +212) +61.96 - Clemson vs. BC (+52, +546) +52.01 - Michigan vs. ND (+31, +244) Bottom 3 -50.23 - Akron vs. NIU (-49, -207) -47.36 - Florida Intl. at MTSU (-33, -177) -43.66 - UMass vs. UConn (-21, -109) Conference Ratings The B1G just surpasses the Big XII-II as top conference. B10 9.96 B12 9.02 SEC 8.23 P12 3.55 AAC 1.99 ACC 0.53 MWC -5.06 SBC -5.96 CUSA -7.72 MAC -11.94 Overall Ratings Week 9 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St. 48.09 364.07 48.72 0 1.78 2 Clemson 30.44 291.91 33.65 3 4.47 3 Wisconsin 31.04 251.42 32.20 -1 -3.38 4 Alabama 30.36 195.91 29.21 2 0.33 5 LSU 28.07 215.13 28.56 -1 -0.94 6 Penn St. 28.36 153.91 25.95 1 -2.08 7 Utah 24.23 211.33 25.82 3 2.19 8 Oklahoma 22.70 230.86 25.70 -5 -4.22 9 Georgia 21.11 182.72 22.44 3 -0.24 10 Michigan 21.39 163.90 21.76 6 4.61 11 Auburn 23.82 117.45 21.26 -3 -3.02 12 Iowa St. 18.31 176.51 20.28 -3 -3.65 13 Oregon 21.93 119.66 20.10 -2 -3.11 14 Navy 17.40 136.00 17.82 0 -0.86 15 Minnesota 16.73 131.74 17.19 13 5.03 16 Air Force 14.84 139.25 16.27 6 1.66 17 Baylor 17.08 94.55 15.71 0 -1.34 18 Appalachian State 16.23 96.79 15.25 2 -0.19 19 Iowa 14.36 118.85 15.01 4 0.51 20 TCU 12.56 144.11 14.97 -5 -2.25 21 Notre Dame 16.42 73.63 14.31 -8 -6.56 22 Cincinnati 14.09 98.39 13.90 4 0.60 23 Florida 13.99 95.54 13.70 1 -0.68 24 Michigan St. 11.40 130.88 13.59 -6 -2.84 25 Boise St. 9.72 146.69 13.19 5 1.56 26 SMU 11.84 111.13 12.98 -5 -2.38 27 UCF 12.21 90.62 12.29 5 0.92 28 Texas 13.53 62.78 11.89 -3 -2.43 29 Memphis 12.09 62.35 10.91 -10 -5.30 30 North Carolina 8.45 111.58 10.74 3 -0.14 31 Tulane 9.85 84.83 10.45 3 -0.14 32 Texas A&M 10.77 70.31 10.39 -3 -1.30 33 Washington St. 10.32 72.13 10.18 6 1.77 34 Washington 13.55 7.61 9.38 1 -1.03 35 LA Lafayette 10.09 48.75 8.96 8 2.79 36 Oklahoma St. 8.05 66.61 8.42 4 1.67 37 Indiana 5.65 96.50 8.19 -1 -1.85 38 USC 10.64 23.70 8.18 -7 -3.32 39 Pittsburgh 4.19 93.40 7.07 -1 -1.57 40 Missouri 5.17 74.47 6.86 -13 -5.33 41 Kansas St. 10.04 -3.97 6.51 11 4.25 42 UAB 0.38 84.98 4.14 0 -2.12 43 Virginia 4.80 12.20 3.76 -6 -5.23 44 Florida Atlantic 5.41 -6.14 3.33 19 4.08 45 West. Kentucky 2.10 34.00 2.96 -1 -2.13 46 Louisville 3.95 4.37 2.83 2 -0.42 47 Florida St. 3.82 -4.37 2.35 9 1.51 48 Nebraska 0.39 41.03 2.14 13 2.39 49 Tulsa 0.39 38.26 2.01 11 1.97 50 Mississippi 0.93 23.76 1.70 -4 -2.49 51 South Carolina 1.12 7.16 1.07 -10 -5.42 52 Mississippi St. 0.36 17.71 1.05 -1 -1.27 53 Duke 2.32 -11.80 1.01 4 0.52 54 Houston 2.17 -10.02 0.99 15 3.16 55 Wake Forest 3.19 -25.29 0.97 -6 -1.94 56 Louisiana Tech 1.29 -0.76 0.83 -2 -0.66 57 Southern Miss -3.60 67.45 0.69 1 0.51 58 Kentucky 0.15 8.74 0.50 14 3.99 59 Miami (FL) -2.20 38.59 0.30 -4 -0.98 60 San Diego St. 1.26 -13.20 0.24 -7 -1.85 61 Arizona St. 1.44 -15.76 0.24 -14 -3.68 62 Texas Tech 0.05 3.97 0.22 -17 -4.07 63 Hawaii -4.56 51.13 -0.70 1 0.26 64 Ball St. -0.44 -12.13 -0.85 -2 -0.42 65 Wyoming 3.79 -74.71 -0.90 2 0.90 66 Tennessee -3.27 21.30 -1.21 7 2.37 67 Fresno St. -1.45 -10.31 -1.44 -8 -1.55 68 Georgia State -3.05 2.66 -1.91 24 6.20 69 BYU -3.02 1.78 -1.93 9 2.60 70 Temple -1.53 -21.78 -2.02 0 0.45 71 Utah St. -0.08 -43.81 -2.06 -21 -4.48 72 Illinois 2.64 -85.01 -2.13 3 1.85 73 UCLA -2.27 -15.98 -2.24 -2 0.55 74 Buffalo -5.98 12.41 -3.42 15 4.57 75 W. Michigan -1.95 -49.36 -3.56 8 2.66 76 Purdue -2.77 -49.41 -4.11 -8 -2.27 77 Colorado -4.73 -25.48 -4.32 5 1.17 78 Ohio -3.63 -44.09 -4.44 24 5.86 79 Marshall -5.72 -13.74 -4.44 18 4.54 80 Georgia Southern -4.47 -32.72 -4.48 6 2.68 81 Stanford -3.25 -55.53 -4.71 -2 0.55 82 Army -3.60 -52.58 -4.81 -6 -0.45 83 Northwestern -6.71 -8.58 -4.87 -9 -1.20 84 California -0.21 -103.99 -4.90 -18 -3.60 85 Coastal Carolina -4.87 -38.47 -5.01 11 3.60 86 Arkansas St. -4.16 -54.93 -5.29 -1 1.49 87 West Virginia -7.30 -35.05 -6.47 -10 -2.07 88 UNC-Charlotte -8.75 -15.71 -6.55 13 3.23 89 Northern Illinois -9.36 -15.19 -6.94 20 6.71 90 Kansas -6.04 -65.15 -7.01 -10 -1.73 91 Florida Intl. -6.57 -62.70 -7.25 -26 -6.14 92 Oregon St. -7.58 -50.47 -7.37 2 0.87 93 Arizona -8.36 -48.50 -7.80 -5 -0.25 94 Middle Tenn. St. -6.39 -81.81 -8.01 20 9.42 95 Boston Coll. -6.56 -79.89 -8.03 -11 -1.53 96 Arkansas -8.25 -56.67 -8.10 2 1.01 97 East. Michigan -6.15 -87.72 -8.12 -2 0.36 98 Cent. Michigan -11.78 -6.64 -8.16 -17 -2.73 99 North Texas -9.78 -37.04 -8.21 -6 -0.01 100 South Florida -9.83 -51.44 -8.90 3 1.70 101 Syracuse -6.87 -96.58 -9.00 -14 -1.55 102 Miami (OH) -9.43 -67.93 -9.40 8 4.67 103 Troy -10.98 -46.52 -9.45 -12 -1.38 104 Maryland -6.77 -120.40 -10.02 -14 -1.99 105 Colorado St. -14.14 -19.66 -10.33 1 2.87 106 N.C. State -10.89 -92.58 -11.50 -7 -2.02 107 Rice -11.90 -78.50 -11.53 -7 -1.74 108 Georgia Tech -11.83 -80.29 -11.56 -1 1.90 109 San Jose St. -10.88 -103.40 -11.99 2 2.41 110 Vanderbilt -13.01 -76.95 -12.19 -5 0.49 111 Toledo -14.00 -122.31 -14.93 7 3.90 112 Virginia Tech -13.08 -142.08 -15.23 -8 -3.54 113 LA Monroe -16.42 -117.06 -16.31 0 0.22 114 Liberty -16.51 -148.80 -17.82 -2 -2.97 115 Kent St. -15.18 -173.13 -18.05 -7 -4.57 116 New Mexico -20.16 -111.17 -18.53 3 1.08 117 UNLV -19.12 -141.62 -19.23 6 5.81 118 Texas St. -18.17 -155.87 -19.24 -2 -1.25 119 Old Dominion -20.54 -181.93 -22.02 -2 -3.71 120 South Alabama -21.02 -176.59 -22.10 2 1.86 121 UT-San Antonio -23.58 -151.60 -22.66 0 0.32 122 East Carolina -20.41 -198.22 -22.68 -7 -4.71 123 New Mexico St. -25.39 -141.83 -23.42 -3 -3.16 124 Connecticut -23.82 -173.28 -23.81 1 3.87 125 Rutgers -23.51 -186.37 -24.21 1 3.74 126 Nevada -25.91 -174.05 -25.24 -2 0.44 127 UTEP -29.05 -216.99 -29.30 1 4.45 128 Akron -33.10 -179.52 -30.28 -1 -1.69 129 Bowling Green -32.25 -297.37 -35.11 0 -0.77 130 Massachusetts -43.79 -322.19 -43.94 0 1.38 By Conference AAC 14 Navy 17.40 136.00 17.82 22 Cincinnati 14.09 98.39 13.90 26 SMU 11.84 111.13 12.98 27 UCF 12.21 90.62 12.29 29 Memphis 12.09 62.35 10.91 31 Tulane 9.85 84.83 10.45 49 Tulsa 0.39 38.26 2.01 54 Houston 2.17 -10.02 0.99 70 Temple -1.53 -21.78 -2.02 100 South Florida -9.83 -51.44 -8.90 122 East Carolina -20.41 -198.22 -22.68 124 Connecticut -23.82 -173.28 -23.81 ACC 2 Clemson 30.44 291.91 33.65 30 North Carolina 8.45 111.58 10.74 39 Pittsburgh 4.19 93.40 7.07 43 Virginia 4.80 12.20 3.76 46 Louisville 3.95 4.37 2.83 47 Florida St. 3.82 -4.37 2.35 53 Duke 2.32 -11.80 1.01 55 Wake Forest 3.19 -25.29 0.97 59 Miami (FL) -2.20 38.59 0.30 95 Boston Coll. -6.56 -79.89 -8.03 101 Syracuse -6.87 -96.58 -9.00 106 N.C. State -10.89 -92.58 -11.50 108 Georgia Tech -11.83 -80.29 -11.56 112 Virginia Tech -13.08 -142.08 -15.23 B1G 1 Ohio St. 48.09 364.07 48.72 3 Wisconsin 31.04 251.42 32.20 6 Penn St. 28.36 153.91 25.95 10 Michigan 21.39 163.90 21.76 15 Minnesota 16.73 131.74 17.19 19 Iowa 14.36 118.85 15.01 24 Michigan St. 11.40 130.88 13.59 37 Indiana 5.65 96.50 8.19 48 Nebraska 0.39 41.03 2.14 72 Illinois 2.64 -85.01 -2.13 76 Purdue -2.77 -49.41 -4.11 83 Northwestern -6.71 -8.58 -4.87 104 Maryland -6.77 -120.40 -10.02 125 Rutgers -23.51 -186.37 -24.21 BXII-II 8 Oklahoma 22.70 230.86 25.70 12 Iowa St. 18.31 176.51 20.28 17 Baylor 17.08 94.55 15.71 20 TCU 12.56 144.11 14.97 28 Texas 13.53 62.78 11.89 36 Oklahoma St. 8.05 66.61 8.42 41 Kansas St. 10.04 -3.97 6.51 62 Texas Tech 0.05 3.97 0.22 87 West Virginia -7.30 -35.05 -6.47 90 Kansas -6.04 -65.15 -7.01 CUSA 42 UAB 0.38 84.98 4.14 44 Florida Atlantic 5.41 -6.14 3.33 45 West. Kentucky 2.10 34.00 2.96 56 Louisiana Tech 1.29 -0.76 0.83 57 Southern Miss -3.60 67.45 0.69 79 Marshall -5.72 -13.74 -4.44 88 UNC-Charlotte -8.75 -15.71 -6.55 91 Florida Intl. -6.57 -62.70 -7.25 94 Middle Tenn. St. -6.39 -81.81 -8.01 99 North Texas -9.78 -37.04 -8.21 107 Rice -11.90 -78.50 -11.53 119 Old Dominion -20.54 -181.93 -22.02 121 UT-San Antonio -23.58 -151.60 -22.66 127 UTEP -29.05 -216.99 -29.30 Indies 21 Notre Dame 16.42 73.63 14.31 69 BYU -3.02 1.78 -1.93 82 Army -3.60 -52.58 -4.81 114 Liberty -16.51 -148.80 -17.82 123 New Mexico St. -25.39 -141.83 -23.42 130 Massachusetts -43.79 -322.19 -43.94 MAC 64 Ball St. -0.44 -12.13 -0.85 74 Buffalo -5.98 12.41 -3.42 75 W. Michigan -1.95 -49.36 -3.56 78 Ohio -3.63 -44.09 -4.44 89 Northern Illinois -9.36 -15.19 -6.94 97 East. Michigan -6.15 -87.72 -8.12 98 Cent. Michigan -11.78 -6.64 -8.16 102 Miami (OH) -9.43 -67.93 -9.40 111 Toledo -14.00 -122.31 -14.93 115 Kent St. -15.18 -173.13 -18.05 128 Akron -33.10 -179.52 -30.28 129 Bowling Green -32.25 -297.37 -35.11 MWC 16 Air Force 14.84 139.25 16.27 25 Boise St. 9.72 146.69 13.19 60 San Diego St. 1.26 -13.20 0.24 63 Hawaii -4.56 51.13 -0.70 65 Wyoming 3.79 -74.71 -0.90 67 Fresno St. -1.45 -10.31 -1.44 71 Utah St. -0.08 -43.81 -2.06 105 Colorado St. -14.14 -19.66 -10.33 109 San Jose St. -10.88 -103.40 -11.99 116 New Mexico -20.16 -111.17 -18.53 117 UNLV -19.12 -141.62 -19.23 126 Nevada -25.91 -174.05 -25.24 P12 7 Utah 24.23 211.33 25.82 13 Oregon 21.93 119.66 20.10 33 Washington St. 10.32 72.13 10.18 34 Washington 13.55 7.61 9.38 38 USC 10.64 23.70 8.18 61 Arizona St. 1.44 -15.76 0.24 73 UCLA -2.27 -15.98 -2.24 77 Colorado -4.73 -25.48 -4.32 81 Stanford -3.25 -55.53 -4.71 84 California -0.21 -103.99 -4.90 92 Oregon St. -7.58 -50.47 -7.37 93 Arizona -8.36 -48.50 -7.80 SBC 18 Appalachian State 16.23 96.79 15.25 35 LA Lafayette 10.09 48.75 8.96 68 Georgia State -3.05 2.66 -1.91 80 Georgia Southern -4.47 -32.72 -4.48 85 Coastal Carolina -4.87 -38.47 -5.01 86 Arkansas St. -4.16 -54.93 -5.29 103 Troy -10.98 -46.52 -9.45 113 LA Monroe -16.42 -117.06 -16.31 118 Texas St. -18.17 -155.87 -19.24 120 South Alabama -21.02 -176.59 -22.10 SEC 4 Alabama 30.36 195.91 29.21 5 LSU 28.07 215.13 28.56 9 Georgia 21.11 182.72 22.44 11 Auburn 23.82 117.45 21.26 23 Florida 13.99 95.54 13.70 32 Texas A&M 10.77 70.31 10.39 40 Missouri 5.17 74.47 6.86 50 Mississippi 0.93 23.76 1.70 51 South Carolina 1.12 7.16 1.07 52 Mississippi St. 0.36 17.71 1.05 58 Kentucky 0.15 8.74 0.50 66 Tennessee -3.27 21.30 -1.21 96 Arkansas -8.25 -56.67 -8.10 110 Vanderbilt -13.01 -76.95 -12.19
  4. 1 point
    The B1G holds the top two spots as Ohio State remains #1 and Wisconsin leaps two spots to #2. The Frogs had the largest drop in Score (-16.0), falling from 9 to 18. Since no one is in much of a mood to bullshit about college football, we'll get right to it. Frogs Week-to-Week Not surprisingly, the Frogs performance at Iowa State sucked. Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU PD: 16.00 15.40 34.25 | -8.67 YD: 132.25 157.80 447.25 | 12.33 Score: 16.91 17.72 43.96 | -5.20 Frogs' Next Opponent Bye. Thank God. Conference Ratings Big XII-II still on top, but the lead over the SEC and B1G shrunk considerably. MACtion appears to be particularly putrid this year. B12 14.42 SEC 12.41 B10 11.06 P12 5.65 ACC 2.57 AAC 1.87 MWC -7.25 SBC -10.18 CUSA -12.62 MAC -17.15 Performances of the Week Top 3 50.61 - LSU vs. USU (+36 PM, +440 YM) 46.20 - Ohio St. vs. Mich St. (+24, +242) 45.45 - Iowa St. vs. TCU (+25, +117) Bottom 3 -61.39 - UMass at FIU (-44, -316) -52.54 - UConn vs. USF (-26, -226) -47.93 - E. Michigan at CMU (-26, -340) Overall Ratings Largest gainers: Minnesota +31 in ranking, FIU +14.88 in Score Largest losers: E. Michigan -44 in ranking, TCU -16.00 in Score Week 6 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St. 47.96 361.74 49.06 0 -3.02 2 Wisconsin 40.38 320.42 42.06 2 4.65 3 Alabama 37.70 247.45 36.82 2 -0.19 4 Iowa St. 34.58 289.54 36.73 -2 -4.28 5 Penn St. 36.25 258.35 36.37 3 1.89 6 LSU 32.04 248.23 33.08 7 5.55 7 Oklahoma 28.98 250.98 31.17 0 -4.87 8 Georgia 30.25 218.50 30.49 -2 -5.95 9 Clemson 26.43 247.33 29.30 1 -0.62 10 Auburn 27.10 158.24 25.54 -7 -11.96 11 Missouri 24.08 180.17 24.56 6 2.39 12 Notre Dame 27.07 135.20 24.43 -1 -5.30 13 Michigan St. 19.81 195.87 22.46 2 -2.91 14 Oregon 23.68 131.68 22.01 0 -4.33 15 Texas 24.50 114.14 21.72 -3 -7.42 16 Baylor 20.90 146.98 20.88 10 5.85 17 Michigan 19.72 124.08 19.00 8 3.22 18 TCU 14.25 187.41 18.35 -9 -16.00 19 Florida 15.14 150.79 17.21 9 2.73 20 Navy 13.89 146.56 16.18 -1 -3.73 21 Utah 13.23 149.63 15.89 8 1.40 22 Iowa 14.92 109.55 15.12 0 -2.46 23 Memphis 16.10 90.88 15.03 -5 -7.12 24 UCF 12.49 133.88 14.65 3 -0.02 25 SMU 12.49 127.44 14.34 -4 -5.05 26 Texas A&M 12.50 111.11 13.58 -2 -2.21 27 Pittsburgh 10.40 134.27 13.27 -4 -2.63 28 Oklahoma St. 11.80 102.35 12.70 -12 -11.51 29 Tulane 13.92 58.43 12.04 17 6.00 30 Air Force 7.96 140.73 11.95 2 0.43 31 Cincinnati 9.71 95.46 10.98 8 2.05 32 Virginia 11.17 66.25 10.57 4 1.04 33 Boise St. 4.27 150.94 9.98 -2 -3.48 34 Washington 15.22 -9.73 9.68 -14 -9.80 35 Appalachian State 14.18 -1.33 9.39 7 1.63 36 North Carolina 7.54 80.65 8.84 1 -0.59 37 Mississippi 8.88 60.45 8.78 -2 -1.01 38 South Carolina 8.26 51.89 7.96 9 2.54 39 USC 9.22 33.47 7.73 1 -0.78 40 Louisville 7.13 61.56 7.66 11 3.67 41 Mississippi St. 8.23 42.31 7.49 -8 -3.51 42 Hawaii 6.40 60.81 7.14 -1 -0.99 43 Houston 10.00 0.25 6.68 1 -0.47 44 Minnesota 4.75 71.71 6.55 31 10.39 45 LA Lafayette 6.38 34.83 5.90 12 4.27 46 Indiana 4.38 60.53 5.78 -8 -3.63 47 Arizona St. 7.86 3.31 5.40 -17 -8.36 48 Miami (FL) -1.79 134.55 5.16 7 2.44 49 Duke 9.13 -23.15 4.99 0 0.04 50 Nebraska 4.05 46.51 4.90 -7 -2.79 51 Tulsa 4.16 41.00 4.71 1 1.04 52 West. Kentucky 3.83 45.42 4.70 28 10.90 53 Florida St. 4.93 24.93 4.47 1 1.74 54 Texas Tech 3.46 45.75 4.47 19 7.59 55 California 9.80 -46.58 4.33 -2 1.60 56 Maryland 8.77 -41.48 3.89 23 9.74 57 Utah St. 4.71 14.94 3.84 -23 -7.01 58 Florida Atlantic 3.51 25.05 3.52 -10 -1.47 59 Stanford 3.10 14.72 2.76 12 4.89 60 Colorado 3.76 4.57 2.72 -10 -1.82 61 Wake Forest 6.57 -35.15 2.72 -16 -3.73 62 Arizona 4.03 -3.04 2.55 -4 2.78 63 West Virginia 1.96 16.27 2.07 0 3.19 64 UAB -1.13 44.51 1.35 0 2.50 65 Washington St. 0.88 4.47 0.80 -6 1.40 66 Kansas St. 3.63 -54.63 -0.16 -10 -2.10 67 Fresno St. -3.35 32.09 -0.72 10 3.92 68 Northwestern -2.17 13.69 -0.80 -8 0.19 69 Wyoming 6.50 -113.46 -1.03 -1 0.74 70 W. Michigan -1.79 -1.90 -1.28 -5 -0.02 71 Oregon St. -2.58 -5.86 -2.00 -5 -0.72 72 Kentucky -1.22 -56.50 -3.48 -5 -1.87 73 Cent. Michigan -7.27 26.23 -3.61 23 9.68 74 North Texas -6.02 6.37 -3.71 4 1.98 75 Kansas -4.33 -18.63 -3.77 -1 -0.23 76 Arkansas -6.19 2.25 -4.02 9 4.94 77 UCLA -3.18 -40.28 -4.02 -15 -2.93 78 Temple -6.15 -9.71 -4.56 14 5.69 79 Army -3.17 -59.09 -4.90 9 4.47 80 Southern Miss -8.50 3.08 -5.52 -8 -2.42 81 N.C. State -6.42 -36.75 -6.01 1 1.56 82 San Diego St. -5.84 -46.95 -6.11 -6 -1.95 83 Coastal Carolina -6.98 -44.31 -6.75 -14 -4.77 84 Florida Intl. -5.58 -77.75 -7.39 29 14.88 85 Toledo -5.56 -79.19 -7.45 15 6.99 86 Syracuse -2.50 -123.83 -7.52 8 5.17 87 Buffalo -12.68 15.68 -7.71 -3 0.64 88 Rice -7.57 -57.00 -7.74 -7 -0.23 89 BYU -8.15 -68.53 -8.67 -6 -1.00 90 Boston Coll. -9.00 -88.72 -10.19 -3 -0.87 91 Tennessee -14.75 -9.17 -10.27 19 10.33 92 Louisiana Tech -10.37 -89.62 -11.15 13 5.27 93 UNC-Charlotte -11.81 -72.85 -11.32 -3 -1.41 94 Troy -12.23 -67.27 -11.33 -5 -1.62 95 Virginia Tech -10.52 -92.90 -11.40 0 1.85 96 Georgia Southern -11.19 -83.81 -11.42 7 4.39 97 Purdue -9.75 -106.43 -11.53 -11 -2.47 98 South Florida -14.25 -51.51 -11.93 9 5.96 99 LA Monroe -12.75 -73.10 -11.95 17 10.63 100 Arkansas St. -9.68 -124.27 -12.32 -30 -10.20 101 San Jose St. -12.44 -86.65 -12.38 0 2.17 102 Illinois -7.84 -161.35 -12.85 -11 -2.74 103 Colorado St. -16.97 -44.32 -13.40 -6 0.26 104 Vanderbilt -13.83 -101.85 -14.03 -11 -3.45 105 East. Michigan -11.77 -149.94 -14.93 -44 -13.86 106 Ohio -14.52 -116.58 -15.19 5 6.60 107 Ball St. -16.17 -97.58 -15.39 -8 -1.10 108 Georgia Tech -16.82 -99.37 -15.90 6 6.59 109 Miami (OH) -14.46 -140.46 -16.28 -11 -2.27 110 Texas St. -14.58 -145.35 -16.59 -1 3.44 111 Liberty -16.08 -132.77 -16.99 -7 -0.90 112 Kent St. -15.97 -164.30 -18.40 -10 -2.78 113 Northern Illinois -23.42 -61.45 -18.52 2 4.06 114 Marshall -20.19 -124.38 -19.33 -6 0.54 115 Old Dominion -19.67 -138.42 -19.65 2 3.14 116 Georgia State -22.90 -108.88 -20.41 7 10.91 117 New Mexico -22.60 -131.55 -21.28 5 7.47 118 East Carolina -21.88 -170.13 -22.62 3 5.05 119 New Mexico St. -24.88 -131.46 -22.79 1 4.86 120 Middle Tenn. St. -17.60 -234.79 -22.83 -8 -0.66 121 Rutgers -26.07 -164.82 -25.16 -15 -7.88 122 South Alabama -25.37 -199.81 -26.35 -3 0.42 123 UT-San Antonio -32.58 -164.17 -29.48 2 5.06 124 UNLV -29.83 -227.27 -30.62 3 6.55 125 Akron -32.57 -229.83 -32.57 -1 -0.03 126 Connecticut -32.44 -243.06 -33.10 -8 -10.18 127 Nevada -33.63 -253.50 -34.39 -1 0.75 128 UTEP -47.33 -350.42 -48.11 1 5.93 129 Massachusetts -47.67 -350.67 -48.34 -1 -2.98 130 Bowling Green -51.15 -432.69 -54.53 0 4.26 By Conference AAC 20 Navy 13.89 146.56 16.18 23 Memphis 16.10 90.88 15.03 24 UCF 12.49 133.88 14.65 25 SMU 12.49 127.44 14.34 29 Tulane 13.92 58.43 12.04 31 Cincinnati 9.71 95.46 10.98 43 Houston 10.00 0.25 6.68 51 Tulsa 4.16 41.00 4.71 78 Temple -6.15 -9.71 -4.56 98 South Florida -14.25 -51.51 -11.93 118 East Carolina -21.88 -170.13 -22.62 126 Connecticut -32.44 -243.06 -33.10 ACC 9 Clemson 26.43 247.33 29.30 27 Pittsburgh 10.40 134.27 13.27 32 Virginia 11.17 66.25 10.57 36 North Carolina 7.54 80.65 8.84 40 Louisville 7.13 61.56 7.66 48 Miami (FL) -1.79 134.55 5.16 49 Duke 9.13 -23.15 4.99 53 Florida St. 4.93 24.93 4.47 61 Wake Forest 6.57 -35.15 2.72 81 N.C. State -6.42 -36.75 -6.01 86 Syracuse -2.50 -123.83 -7.52 90 Boston Coll. -9.00 -88.72 -10.19 95 Virginia Tech -10.52 -92.90 -11.40 108 Georgia Tech -16.82 -99.37 -15.90 B1G 1 Ohio St. 47.96 361.74 49.06 2 Wisconsin 40.38 320.42 42.06 5 Penn St. 36.25 258.35 36.37 13 Michigan St. 19.81 195.87 22.46 17 Michigan 19.72 124.08 19.00 22 Iowa 14.92 109.55 15.12 44 Minnesota 4.75 71.71 6.55 46 Indiana 4.38 60.53 5.78 50 Nebraska 4.05 46.51 4.90 56 Maryland 8.77 -41.48 3.89 68 Northwestern -2.17 13.69 -0.80 97 Purdue -9.75 -106.43 -11.53 102 Illinois -7.84 -161.35 -12.85 121 Rutgers -26.07 -164.82 -25.16 BXII-II 4 Iowa St. 34.58 289.54 36.73 7 Oklahoma 28.98 250.98 31.17 15 Texas 24.50 114.14 21.72 16 Baylor 20.90 146.98 20.88 18 TCU 14.25 187.41 18.35 28 Oklahoma St. 11.80 102.35 12.70 54 Texas Tech 3.46 45.75 4.47 63 West Virginia 1.96 16.27 2.07 66 Kansas St. 3.63 -54.63 -0.16 75 Kansas -4.33 -18.63 -3.77 CUSA 52 West. Kentucky 3.83 45.42 4.70 58 Florida Atlantic 3.51 25.05 3.52 64 UAB -1.13 44.51 1.35 74 North Texas -6.02 6.37 -3.71 80 Southern Miss -8.50 3.08 -5.52 84 Florida Intl. -5.58 -77.75 -7.39 88 Rice -7.57 -57.00 -7.74 92 Louisiana Tech -10.37 -89.62 -11.15 93 UNC-Charlotte -11.81 -72.85 -11.32 114 Marshall -20.19 -124.38 -19.33 115 Old Dominion -19.67 -138.42 -19.65 120 Middle Tenn. St. -17.60 -234.79 -22.83 123 UT-San Antonio -32.58 -164.17 -29.48 128 UTEP -47.33 -350.42 -48.11 Indies 12 Notre Dame 27.07 135.20 24.43 79 Army -3.17 -59.09 -4.90 89 BYU -8.15 -68.53 -8.67 111 Liberty -16.08 -132.77 -16.99 119 New Mexico St. -24.88 -131.46 -22.79 129 Massachusetts -47.67 -350.67 -48.34 MAC 70 W. Michigan -1.79 -1.90 -1.28 73 Cent. Michigan -7.27 26.23 -3.61 85 Toledo -5.56 -79.19 -7.45 87 Buffalo -12.68 15.68 -7.71 105 East. Michigan -11.77 -149.94 -14.93 106 Ohio -14.52 -116.58 -15.19 107 Ball St. -16.17 -97.58 -15.39 109 Miami (OH) -14.46 -140.46 -16.28 112 Kent St. -15.97 -164.30 -18.40 113 Northern Illinois -23.42 -61.45 -18.52 125 Akron -32.57 -229.83 -32.57 130 Bowling Green -51.15 -432.69 -54.53 MWC 30 Air Force 7.96 140.73 11.95 33 Boise St. 4.27 150.94 9.98 42 Hawaii 6.40 60.81 7.14 57 Utah St. 4.71 14.94 3.84 67 Fresno St. -3.35 32.09 -0.72 69 Wyoming 6.50 -113.46 -1.03 82 San Diego St. -5.84 -46.95 -6.11 101 San Jose St. -12.44 -86.65 -12.38 103 Colorado St. -16.97 -44.32 -13.40 117 New Mexico -22.60 -131.55 -21.28 124 UNLV -29.83 -227.27 -30.62 127 Nevada -33.63 -253.50 -34.39 P12 14 Oregon 23.68 131.68 22.01 21 Utah 13.23 149.63 15.89 34 Washington 15.22 -9.73 9.68 39 USC 9.22 33.47 7.73 47 Arizona St. 7.86 3.31 5.40 55 California 9.80 -46.58 4.33 59 Stanford 3.10 14.72 2.76 60 Colorado 3.76 4.57 2.72 62 Arizona 4.03 -3.04 2.55 65 Washington St. 0.88 4.47 0.80 71 Oregon St. -2.58 -5.86 -2.00 77 UCLA -3.18 -40.28 -4.02 SBC 35 Appalachian State 14.18 -1.33 9.39 45 LA Lafayette 6.38 34.83 5.90 83 Coastal Carolina -6.98 -44.31 -6.75 94 Troy -12.23 -67.27 -11.33 96 Georgia Southern -11.19 -83.81 -11.42 99 LA Monroe -12.75 -73.10 -11.95 100 Arkansas St. -9.68 -124.27 -12.32 110 Texas St. -14.58 -145.35 -16.59 116 Georgia State -22.90 -108.88 -20.41 122 South Alabama -25.37 -199.81 -26.35 SEC 3 Alabama 37.70 247.45 36.82 6 LSU 32.04 248.23 33.08 8 Georgia 30.25 218.50 30.49 10 Auburn 27.10 158.24 25.54 11 Missouri 24.08 180.17 24.56 19 Florida 15.14 150.79 17.21 26 Texas A&M 12.50 111.11 13.58 37 Mississippi 8.88 60.45 8.78 38 South Carolina 8.26 51.89 7.96 41 Mississippi St. 8.23 42.31 7.49 72 Kentucky -1.22 -56.50 -3.48 76 Arkansas -6.19 2.25 -4.02 91 Tennessee -14.75 -9.17 -10.27 104 Vanderbilt -13.83 -101.85 -14.03
  5. 1 point
    The "Extra Crispy" Formula If you are a regular reader of this blog, you have heard me preach innumerable times that there is nothing mystical about computational models, be they models of college football team performance or models of hurricanes. The only thing that differentiates a "computer" model and a human "gut" feeling is the amount of data used and the amount of bias awareness built in. So in a previous edition of this blog, we talked about my most recent attempt to acknowledge some potential biases in DUSHEE. These tweaks resulted in the "Extra Crispy" formulation of DUSHEE which was supposed to correct some of the perceived biases of the "Original" formulation: overrating Group of 5 WTF teams, overemphasizing outlier performances when a team does far better or worse than they have on average over the rest of the season. But if you've noticed, and no doubt you have, I kinda ignore the "Extra Crispy" formulation, at least until bowl season, when it reemerges. I ignore it because it severely punishes teams with weak SoS, which means it severely punishes Group of 5 schools. In other words, I think it has swung the pendulum too far the other way. The "Extra Crispy" formulation would have heavily penalized the MWC-era Frogs for being in the MWC. And that rankles my own personal bias ... a bunch of Power 5 blue bloods in the top 25 is boring. And, as I've argued before, if you secretly replaced Coastal Carolina's roster with the New England Patriots and had them play a Sun Belt Conference schedule, they'd still be the best team in college football, even if they were playing teams like Texas State and South Alabama every week. The DUSHEE methodology compares Team A's performance against Team B to how the rest of Team B's opponents did against them. And if most teams play a random sampling of teams throughout the distribution of college football teams (i.e., some good, some bad) then the methodology works pretty well. The inherent problem, of course, is that college football scheduling is not a random sampling; teams in good conferences play a disproportionate number of good teams and teams in bad conferences skew bad. And if the best team in a bad conference beats up on their conference opponents but never plays an opponent from a good conference, the basis for comparison between that team and teams in that better conference becomes weak. Case Study: The Utah State Aggies Let's look at the 2018 Utah State team. DUSHEE thought very highly of Utah State last season, ranking them 9th overall at season's end (Original Formulation). Their game-by-game Point Differentials and opponent strength are shown below. Utah State Opp: @ MichSt NMSU AFA | @ BYU UNLV @ Wyo | UNM @ Haw SJSU | @ CSU @ Boise N UNT PD: -5.92 30.00 12.60 | 31.73 21.00 6.90 | 31.50 35.50 24.00 | -9.60 4.67 52.00 YD: -75.92 69.70 59.70 | 69.91 120.90 -144.90 | 271.00 175.83 245.60 | -250.20 17.33 345.70 OF Score: -7.62 23.37 11.29 | 24.53 19.85 -2.41 | 34.10 32.17 27.87 | -18.50 3.95 51.38 SoS: 5.72 -23.47 2.12 | 5.80 -14.57 -0.68 | -17.78 -8.98 -20.57 | -13.47 15.26 4.90 Utah State played the 118th toughest schedule out of 130 in FBS last season. They racked up big point differentials largely on the weakest of those opponents: New Mexico State, UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii, San Jose State. Half of their schedule was against teams that were more than a touchdown worse than an average FBS team and against those teams they averaged a PD of 22.1 against those teams. One thing that good teams should do is crush bad teams, and Utah State did that, save for squeaking by a bad Colorado State in week 12. The Aggies also played four slightly above average teams (Michigan State, Air Force, BYU, and UNT) and the results were mixed with Utah State crushing BYU and UNT, a solid 10-point win against Air Force and losing by a TD against Sparty. Utah State played one team that was a TD or more better than an average team -- Boise. And in that game, Utah State performed like a slightly above average team, losing to the Broncos by 9, which was 4.67 points better than the rest of Boise's opponents did. There is evidence that Utah State was a very good football team last year. With the exception of CSU, they crushed the bad teams on their schedule and they crushed two of the five mediocre teams they played. But the flip side of that coin is that Utah State were just okay against the other 3 mediocre teams and the one legitimately good team they played. So is that the resume of a top 10 team in the country? If A&M or LSU (the teams just above and below USU in the DUSHEE rankings, who also happened to have the 1st and 2nd toughest schedules according to DUSHEE) had played the same schedule, would they have had similar results? And Now the Tweaks So if it seems like Utah State was rewarded disproportionately for beating up bad opponents, what do we do? What the Extra Crispy Formulation did before was simply add the opponent's strength to the team's score against that team. In hindsight, that was a lazy cudgel, using a flame-thrower to correct a problem that requires a delicate scalpel. Now, we nudge the individual score with the opponent strength divided by the number of games played. I have also added a reward for games played on the road (acknowledging that playing on the road is statistically about 3 points harder on the road than at home). So if we were to take Utah State's DUSHEE (Original Formula) point totals and show the adjustments now made by the Extra Crispy formula, we get: Opp: @ MichSt NMSU AFA | @ BYU UNLV @ Wyo | UNM @ Haw SJSU | @ CSU @ Boise N UNT | Adjustment Sum OF Score: -7.62 23.37 11.29 | 24.53 19.85 -2.41 | 34.10 32.17 27.87 | -18.50 3.95 51.38 | Outlier Adjustment: +1.34 -0.06 +0.05 | -0.11 +0.06 +0.22 | -0.08 -0.25 +0.07 | +2.28 +0.28 -2.83 | +0.97 SoS Adjustment: +0.48 -1.96 +0.18 | +0.48 -1.21 -0.06 | -1.48 -0.75 -1.71 | -1.12 +1.27 +0.41 | -5.47 Home Field Adjustment: +1.52 -1.52 -1.52 | +1.52 -1.52 +1.52 | -1.52 +1.52 -1.52 | +1.52 +1.52 0.00 | +1.52 Total Adjustment: +3.34 -3.54 -1.29 | +1.89 -2.67 +1.68 | -3.08 +0.33 -3.16 | +2.68 +3.07 -2.42 | -3.17 XC Score: -4.28 19.83 10.00 | 26.43 17.17 -0.73 | 31.01 32.69 24.70 | -15.82 7.02 47.44 Over a large population of games, one would expect the Outlier Adjustment for poor performances to balance the great performances over the course of a season, but since we have a sample size of 12 here, it doesn't. In this case, the Aggies two negative outliers (Michigan State and Colorado State) were slightly more "outliery" than their one positive outlier (North Texas). I am not sure if the Outlier Adjustment is large enough (e.g., should the "aberrational" effect of being more than 15 points better against North Texas than they were anybody else be "corrected" by more than 2.83 points?) But for now I'm keeping it where it is. Overall, Utah State's ranking would not have changed based on this new set of corrections, not because their score didn't drop (it did) but because it did not change the ordering of teams once all of them were "corrected" too. But perhaps the corrected formula comes a little closer to judging Utah State accurately? What say you, Frog rabble? Are the corrections too small? Too big? What else should be considered, taking into account that I'm probably not going to be willing to look at any additional stats beyond points and yards because this thing already takes entirely too much time to piss around with. Even if I love pissing around with it so.
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