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  1. 2 points
    It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season. DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done. The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread. And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening lines set back in early December. Here is how the models did: Model SU ATS DUSHEE O 19 - 19 20 - 18 DUSHEE XC 18 - 20 18 - 20 Sagarin 19 - 19 27 - 11 SRS 19 - 19 25 - 13 Vegas 15 - 23 If you bet using Sagarin or SRS, you made out pretty well during bowl season. If you used DUSHEE, well, let me reiterate that gambling is a vice and the author does not promote or encourage sports betting of any kind. Now my high school football coaches, forever wise, once taught me that excuses are like assholes and elbows ... everybody's got them and mine stink. I'm not sure why my elbows smelled so badly, but I can nonetheless offer a few qualitative reasons for why the bowls are hard to pick. One, in the modern era where NFL hopefuls sit out the bowls, it is easy to argue that not all the teams have the same talent level they had when their regular season performance was measured. One can imagine a way of trying to account for this similar to the WAR metric used in baseball, but ain't nobody got time for that. West Virginia and Michigan both took pretty big hits to their personnel so it was quite predictable they would underperform compared to the regular season. Two, is impossible to quantify the motivation teams have going into exhibition games that the CFP has probably made even less relevant than they used to be. I mean, OBVIOUSLY the SEC was totally not into their games against opponents from all those other slummy conferences ... All of that said, Sagarin and SRS also were only accounting for regular season performance and they did quite well picking winners against the spread. But then, DUSHEE did quite well during the regular season. And DUSHEE has done much better in other bowl seasons. So I'm going to dismiss this bowl season as a fluke. Dealers' prerogative ... Best and Worst Bowl Performances Top 6 59.87 Army vs. Houston 52.38 Texas A&M vs. NC State 52.37 Auburn vs. Purdue 51.88 Clemson vs. Alabama 51.38 Utah State vs. N. Texas 49.09 Clemson vs. Notre Dame I posted the top 6 just to show how friggin' impressive Clemson was in the two playoff games, averaging 50 point better than an average team against, supposedly, two of the four best teams in the country. Bottom 3 -46.27 Purdue vs. Auburn -43.17 Houston vs. Army -39.03 Temple vs. Duke Conference Ratings The Big XII-II leapt back over the B1G as the second best conference in college football, after what was by all accounts a pretty mediocre year for the conference. Despite the relatively poor bowl showing, the SEC is still well ahead of everybody else. The only reason why the ACC had a positive number was because Clemson was in the conference, otherwise the conference only marginally better than the MWC. And the American ends up behind the Mountain West as the best "Group of 5." Please change your marketing campaign, American Athletic Conference ... SEC 10.19 B12 3.94 B10 3.58 ACC 1.41 P12 0.65 MWC -2.60 AAC -4.87 CUSA -5.98 SBC -6.41 MAC -6.43 Final Overall Ratings Post-Bowl Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 1 2.11 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 -1 -2.44 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 0 -3.11 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 0 -2.84 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 0 0.07 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 0 -0.03 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 0 -1.02 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 4 2.57 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 3.23 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 8 1.91 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 -2 -1.63 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 1 -0.01 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 1 -0.03 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 -3 -0.87 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 -7 -3.38 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 1 0.71 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 -7 -2.44 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 10 4.33 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 -4 -1.68 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 -1 -0.46 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 -5 -1.89 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 1 0.57 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 1 0.43 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 3 1.39 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 -5 -1.84 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 4 3.19 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 -2 -1.84 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 7 2.21 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 -7 -3.45 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 4 1.06 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 0 -0.32 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 4 1.18 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 5 0.63 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 7 0.97 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 -9 -5.33 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 10 1.77 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 0 -0.36 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 -9 -2.51 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 4 0.10 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 -1 -1.08 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 -9 -2.13 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 16 1.63 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 2 -0.88 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 7 0.45 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 -5 -2.41 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 -13 -4.10 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 -5 -2.20 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 -1 -1.03 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 -1 -1.09 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 2 -0.49 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 2 -0.08 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 13 1.40 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 6 0.26 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 -10 -2.38 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 1 -0.26 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 7 0.40 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 3 0.11 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 -1 -0.55 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 -5 -0.78 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 8 1.28 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 23 4.32 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 -12 -2.20 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 -14 -2.32 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 -9 -1.50 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 2 0.26 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 5 0.50 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 -5 -1.16 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 -2 -0.27 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 -5 -0.74 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 0 -0.12 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 -2 -0.81 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 1 -0.22 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 -1 -0.84 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 4 0.55 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 -1 -0.77 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 -1 -1.18 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 0 -0.57 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 -17 -4.15 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 6 1.07 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 -1 -0.49 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 8 1.67 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 5 1.20 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 -7 -1.35 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 -4 -0.65 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 -3 -0.74 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 5 1.63 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 -1 -0.49 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 0 -0.29 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 3 1.41 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 -9 -2.48 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 -1 -0.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 -9 -2.42 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 1 -0.03 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 -1 -1.06 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 4 -0.34 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 4 -0.17 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 0 -0.87 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 -3 -1.68 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 2 0.24 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 -2 -1.18 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 -5 -1.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 0 -0.75 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46 0 -0.40 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 1 -0.80 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 2 0.37 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 -2 -1.66 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 -1 0.13 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 0 -0.21 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 3 0.68 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 -1 -0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 0 -0.51 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 -2 -0.85 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 1 0.06 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 2 0.22 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 -2 -0.35 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 -1 -0.32 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 0 -0.12 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 0 -0.23 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 0 -0.63 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 0 -0.55 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 0 -0.03 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 0 -0.21 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 2 0.05 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 0 -0.31 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 -2 -0.67 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 1 -0.37 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 -1 -0.87 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 0 0.09 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 0 0.52 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 0 -0.90 By Conference AAC 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 ACC 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 B1G 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 CUSA 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 Indies 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 MAC 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 MWC 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 P12 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 SBC 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 SEC 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46
  2. 2 points
    Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season. Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan. The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season. Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves. Same old, same old. I don't think UCF is one of the 4 best teams in the country, but I'd be a hell of a lot more interested in the CFP if they were in the tournament. But luckily for all you TFH subscribers, you have DUSHEE to keep you keen and interested. None of the Top 12 moved in the rankings. The gap tightened between Bama and Clemson, now with less than 3-points separating the top two teams. NC-State fans can shelter from their Snowmageddon warmed by the solace that they rose the most in the rankings this week, riding their 55-point blowout of East Carolina to an 8-spot and over 4-point rise in DUSHEE to get back into the top 25. ECU, conversely, experienced the largest drop, falling 10 spots and 4.5 points. UConn sealed the bottom spot, almost 10 points worse than New Mexico State. To give you a sense of how bad UConn was this year, their TOP rated DUSHEE performance all season was in Week 1 in a 39-point loss to UCF. They earned a -16.15 DUSHEE score for that performance. And that was as good as they did all year. TCU's week-to-week hasn't really changed much since I posted their numbers in the Week 13 blog post (Ohio State went up a little, UT and OU went down a little), and Cal's numbers are in the Bowl Preview. So we'll jump to the Best and Worst Performers. It is a pretty rare circumstance for the loser of a game to wind up in the top performers for the week, but Georgia did that in earning a 34.15 DUSHEE score while losing to Alabama by a TD. It is not all that uncommon for a losing team to get a better score than a winning team; generally happening when a bad team keeps a game close against a good team. I know this is a hard concept for many to wrap their brains around when in the traditional AP poll mindset ... the team that loses must drop! But the goal of DUSHEE is to measure the relative strength of the teams, so if a good team goes into a game, say, 13 points better than another team, but only beats them by 7, that is an indication that the gap between those two teams isn't as large as was originally thought. And that is what happened in the Georgia-Alabama game. Georgia went in as a 13-point underdog (per DUSHEE) against the best team in the country. They lost to that team by 7 and outgained them by almost 60. And that is the big flaw in the AP poll. When two teams who are close to each other in the rankings play a close game, there is no reason to change their rankings relative to each other. That is an indication that you had them ranked correctly to begin with. There is no need to punish the loser by dropping them in the rankings. Statistically, the teams were about even. So despite losing, Georgia crept closer to Alabama, closing their gap with the Tide by a little more than 2 points. Championship Week Top 3 Performers 55.96 -- NC State vs. ECU (55 MOV, 544 YM) 34.15 -- Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 MOV, 59 YM) 29.99 -- Clemson vs. Pitt (32 MOV, 229 YM) Championship Week Bottom 3 Performers -54.55 ECU at NCSU (-55 MOV, -544 YM) -24.20 Akron at South Carolina (-25 MOV, -134 YM) -20.51 Marshall at VaTech (-21 MOV, 16 YM) And since we are in year-end mode, let's track down the top and bottom 10 performances for the whole year. 2018 Season Top 10 63.66 - Clemson at Wake (60 MOV, 449 YM) (Week 6) 55.96 - NC State vs. E. Carolina (55 MOV, 544 YM) (Week 14) 53.97 - Ohio vs. Buffalo (35 MOV, 364 YM) (Week 12) 53.84 - Oklahoma vs. Fla. Atlantic (49 MOV, 326 YM) (Week 1) 53.38 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St. (50 MOV, 208 YM) (Week 2) 52.38 - Alabama at Mississippi (55 MOV, 269 YM) (Week 3) 51.54 - Michigan vs. Penn St. (35 MOV, 219 YM) (Week 10) 51.43 - Mississippi vs. La-Monroe (49 MOV, 399 YM) (Week 6) 51.42 - Alabama vs. Missouri (29 MOV, 352 YM) (Week 7) 50.54 - Clemson vs. Ga. Southern (31 MOV, 455 YM) (Week 3) 2018 Season Bottom 10 -62.98 UNLV vs. New Mexico (-36 MOV, -336 YM) (Week 6) -59.78 La-Monroe at Mississippi (-49 MOV, -399 YM) (Week 6) -58.71 UConn at E. Carolina (-34 MOV, -383 YM) (Week 12) -57.87 UConn at Boise St. (-55 MOV, -629 YM) (Week 2) -57.81 Liberty at Auburn (-53 MOV, -397 YM) (Week 12) -57.46 Old Dominion at Liberty (-42 MOV, -290) (Week 1) -56.58 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) (Week 13) -54.55 E. Carolina at NC State (-55 MOV, -544 YM) (Week 14) -53.82 Texas St. at Rutgers (-28 MOV, -247 YM) (Week 1) -52.84 Rutgers at Kansas (-41 MOV, -270 YM) (Week 3) Overall Ratings Regular Season Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 36.16 265.88 36.99 0 -1.30 2 Clemson 33.17 249.73 34.21 0 0.26 3 Georgia 25.54 185.56 26.02 0 0.91 4 Michigan 21.99 199.80 24.34 0 -0.14 5 Oklahoma 19.62 155.95 20.64 0 -0.41 6 Mississippi St. 18.01 148.26 19.19 0 -0.36 7 Ohio St. 17.57 153.04 19.13 0 0.33 8 UCF 20.28 98.78 18.30 0 -0.20 9 Notre Dame 17.32 113.45 17.04 0 -0.21 10 Missouri 16.75 113.10 16.65 0 -0.53 11 Penn St. 16.80 96.26 15.87 0 -0.35 12 Texas A&M 12.83 143.03 15.48 0 -0.25 13 Boise St. 15.06 108.02 15.27 2 0.13 14 Fresno St. 16.86 83.18 15.27 -1 -0.22 15 West Virginia 15.01 99.66 14.84 2 -0.22 16 Cincinnati 13.53 114.34 14.56 0 -0.58 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 -3 -1.10 18 LSU 14.17 89.52 13.78 0 -0.51 19 Iowa 14.34 83.19 13.59 0 -0.16 20 Washington St. 12.64 105.29 13.53 0 -0.19 21 Utah St. 16.49 50.55 13.44 0 -0.11 22 N.C. State 11.35 95.12 12.17 8 4.15 23 Ohio 12.04 83.43 12.07 0 -0.20 24 Washington 10.97 96.78 12.00 1 0.52 25 Utah 12.05 75.17 11.68 -3 -1.06 26 Temple 11.81 69.03 11.22 -2 -0.66 27 Florida 10.67 71.65 10.59 0 0.01 28 Army 10.30 54.54 9.51 -2 -1.83 29 Miami (FL) 7.45 67.37 8.23 0 -0.09 30 Auburn 9.75 31.94 8.05 -2 -0.49 31 Kentucky 9.24 37.67 7.99 0 0.02 32 North Texas 5.99 62.68 7.03 1 -0.13 33 Purdue 7.40 43.03 7.02 -1 -0.16 34 Texas 7.86 31.00 6.74 1 -0.12 35 Wisconsin 5.05 67.14 6.62 1 -0.16 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 1 -0.63 37 Michigan St. 5.34 52.01 6.08 1 -0.13 38 Syracuse 7.26 24.38 6.02 1 0.22 39 Buffalo 5.67 45.55 5.98 -5 -1.05 40 South Carolina 6.74 21.90 5.55 2 0.20 41 Iowa St. 6.93 17.59 5.47 -1 -0.27 42 Memphis 4.87 35.71 4.98 -1 -0.59 43 Oklahoma St. 4.46 38.56 4.84 0 -0.33 44 Stanford 7.44 -10.58 4.45 1 -0.18 45 Florida Atlantic 0.92 77.85 4.38 1 -0.24 46 BYU 2.80 44.73 4.04 1 -0.27 47 Middle Tenn. St. 3.78 22.12 3.59 3 0.38 48 Oregon 4.30 14.64 3.58 0 -0.19 49 Vanderbilt 5.72 -12.73 3.20 2 0.05 50 Georgia Tech 2.66 27.52 3.10 -1 -0.26 51 Marshall 2.50 27.90 3.02 -7 -1.78 52 Arizona St. 3.57 12.37 2.98 0 -0.14 53 Arkansas St. 1.11 37.01 2.53 0 -0.40 54 Texas Tech 2.39 16.94 2.41 0 -0.19 55 Boston Coll. 4.24 -11.06 2.29 7 0.69 56 Pittsburgh 2.95 5.45 2.23 1 -0.06 57 Nebraska -0.34 50.34 2.21 -1 -0.15 58 Virginia 2.29 11.10 2.07 5 0.46 59 Air Force 0.49 31.57 1.86 0 -0.12 60 Miami (OH) 2.12 8.06 1.80 -2 -0.35 61 Houston 3.50 -11.79 1.76 -6 -0.69 62 Toledo 3.85 -19.18 1.64 -1 -0.20 63 Southern Miss -1.42 51.01 1.53 -3 -0.33 64 Maryland 1.99 -3.64 1.15 1 -0.11 65 Minnesota 1.67 -2.49 0.99 -1 -0.29 66 TCU -0.84 26.43 0.72 0 -0.15 67 Northwestern 2.21 -22.92 0.36 0 -0.45 68 Troy 1.09 -8.41 0.32 0 -0.25 69 Arizona -3.90 57.62 0.19 0 -0.20 70 Mississippi -3.37 47.31 0.05 2 -0.05 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 0 -0.12 72 East. Michigan 0.15 -1.70 0.02 -2 -0.18 73 Wyoming -1.03 4.54 -0.47 0 -0.25 74 USC -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 0 -0.25 75 San Diego St. -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 0 -0.23 76 Northern Illinois -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 3 0.89 77 Nevada -3.26 9.03 -1.73 -1 -0.27 78 Florida Intl. -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 -1 -0.18 79 California -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 -1 -0.18 80 Indiana -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 1 0.03 81 LA Lafayette -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 6 0.87 82 UCLA -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 -2 -0.33 83 W. Michigan -7.03 31.77 -3.15 0 0.03 84 Duke -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 -2 -0.27 85 Baylor -5.51 3.40 -3.51 0 -0.17 86 Colorado -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 0 -0.18 87 Tulane -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 -3 -0.78 88 Kansas St. -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 0 -0.16 89 Wake Forest -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 1 0.28 90 Tennessee -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 -1 -0.24 91 Louisiana Tech -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 0 -0.10 92 Virginia Tech -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 6 2.35 93 Florida St. -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 2 0.74 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 -2 -0.36 95 South Florida -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 -2 -0.53 96 SMU -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 0 -0.20 97 Hawaii -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 0 -0.12 98 Navy -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 3 0.68 99 North Carolina -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 0 -0.09 100 Kansas -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 0 -0.18 101 LA Monroe -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 1 -0.02 102 Ball St. -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 1 0.04 103 Arkansas -12.82 -51.70 -11.05 1 -0.28 104 East Carolina -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 -10 -4.58 105 Tulsa -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 0 -0.28 106 Colorado St. -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 0 -0.10 107 West. Kentucky -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 0 -0.16 108 UNLV -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 0 -0.13 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 0 0.00 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 1 0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 -1 -0.45 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 0 -0.01 113 Akron -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 0 -0.90 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 0 -0.17 115 Rutgers -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 0 -0.18 116 New Mexico -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 0 -0.24 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 1 -0.09 118 Illinois -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 -1 -0.17 119 Cent. Michigan -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 0 -0.13 120 Bowling Green -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 0 -0.17 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 0 -0.32 122 Kent St. -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 0 -0.14 123 Oregon St. -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 0 0.14 124 UTEP -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 0 -0.07 125 San Jose St. -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 0 -0.13 126 Louisville -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 0 0.27 127 Rice -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 0 -0.07 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 0 -0.20 129 New Mexico St. -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 0 0.01 130 Connecticut -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 0 -0.74 By Conference AAC 8 UCF 20.28 98.78 18.30 16 Cincinnati 13.53 114.34 14.56 26 Temple 11.81 69.03 11.22 42 Memphis 4.87 35.71 4.98 61 Houston 3.50 -11.79 1.76 87 Tulane -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 95 South Florida -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 96 SMU -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 98 Navy -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 104 East Carolina -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 105 Tulsa -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 130 Connecticut -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 ACC 2 Clemson 33.17 249.73 34.21 22 N.C. State 11.35 95.12 12.17 29 Miami (FL) 7.45 67.37 8.23 38 Syracuse 7.26 24.38 6.02 50 Georgia Tech 2.66 27.52 3.10 55 Boston Coll. 4.24 -11.06 2.29 56 Pittsburgh 2.95 5.45 2.23 58 Virginia 2.29 11.10 2.07 84 Duke -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 89 Wake Forest -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 92 Virginia Tech -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 93 Florida St. -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 99 North Carolina -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 126 Louisville -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 B1G 4 Michigan 21.99 199.80 24.34 7 Ohio St. 17.57 153.04 19.13 11 Penn St. 16.80 96.26 15.87 19 Iowa 14.34 83.19 13.59 33 Purdue 7.40 43.03 7.02 35 Wisconsin 5.05 67.14 6.62 37 Michigan St. 5.34 52.01 6.08 57 Nebraska -0.34 50.34 2.21 64 Maryland 1.99 -3.64 1.15 65 Minnesota 1.67 -2.49 0.99 67 Northwestern 2.21 -22.92 0.36 80 Indiana -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 115 Rutgers -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 118 Illinois -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.62 155.95 20.64 15 West Virginia 15.01 99.66 14.84 34 Texas 7.86 31.00 6.74 41 Iowa St. 6.93 17.59 5.47 43 Oklahoma St. 4.46 38.56 4.84 54 Texas Tech 2.39 16.94 2.41 66 TCU -0.84 26.43 0.72 85 Baylor -5.51 3.40 -3.51 88 Kansas St. -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 100 Kansas -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 CUSA 32 North Texas 5.99 62.68 7.03 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 45 Florida Atlantic 0.92 77.85 4.38 47 Middle Tenn. St. 3.78 22.12 3.59 51 Marshall 2.50 27.90 3.02 63 Southern Miss -1.42 51.01 1.53 78 Florida Intl. -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 91 Louisiana Tech -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 124 UTEP -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 127 Rice -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 Indies 9 Notre Dame 17.32 113.45 17.04 28 Army 10.30 54.54 9.51 46 BYU 2.80 44.73 4.04 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 129 New Mexico St. -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 MAC 23 Ohio 12.04 83.43 12.07 39 Buffalo 5.67 45.55 5.98 60 Miami (OH) 2.12 8.06 1.80 62 Toledo 3.85 -19.18 1.64 72 East. Michigan 0.15 -1.70 0.02 76 Northern Illinois -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 83 W. Michigan -7.03 31.77 -3.15 102 Ball St. -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 113 Akron -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 119 Cent. Michigan -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 120 Bowling Green -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 122 Kent St. -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 MWC 13 Boise St. 15.06 108.02 15.27 14 Fresno St. 16.86 83.18 15.27 21 Utah St. 16.49 50.55 13.44 59 Air Force 0.49 31.57 1.86 73 Wyoming -1.03 4.54 -0.47 75 San Diego St. -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 77 Nevada -3.26 9.03 -1.73 97 Hawaii -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 106 Colorado St. -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 108 UNLV -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 116 New Mexico -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 125 San Jose St. -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 P12 20 Washington St. 12.64 105.29 13.53 24 Washington 10.97 96.78 12.00 25 Utah 12.05 75.17 11.68 44 Stanford 7.44 -10.58 4.45 48 Oregon 4.30 14.64 3.58 52 Arizona St. 3.57 12.37 2.98 69 Arizona -3.90 57.62 0.19 74 USC -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 79 California -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 82 UCLA -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 86 Colorado -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 123 Oregon St. -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 SBC 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 53 Arkansas St. 1.11 37.01 2.53 68 Troy 1.09 -8.41 0.32 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 81 LA Lafayette -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 101 LA Monroe -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 SEC 1 Alabama 36.16 265.88 36.99 3 Georgia 25.54 185.56 26.02 6 Mississippi St. 18.01 148.26 19.19 10 Missouri 16.75 113.10 16.65 12 Texas A&M 12.83 143.03 15.48 18 LSU 14.17 89.52 13.78 27 Florida 10.67 71.65 10.59 30 Auburn 9.75 31.94 8.05 31 Kentucky 9.24 37.67 7.99 40 South Carolina 6.74 21.90 5.55 49 Vanderbilt 5.72 -12.73 3.20 70 Mississippi -3.37 47.31 0.05 90 Tennessee -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 103 Arkansas -12.82 -51.70 -11.05
  3. 1 point
    I know by the calamitous rancor that dominated these pages over the last week that everyone is super upset I didn't post DUSHEE last week. Apologies, but last week was my first week at a new job and things were a little busy. And I'm trying to get off on a good foot, so spending 15 minutes to post a blog on a college football fan site seemed like it might be a bad idea. So this comes at you from home ... DUSHEE is still a fan of the Frogs, who come in at 20 after defeating the Horns in Ft. Worth. Ohio State is more than 2 TDs better than any other team in the country after obliterating former #2 Wisconsin (who falls only to 3). The biggest climbers of the week were Middle Tennessee St., who leapt almost 9.5 points after beating FIU by 33 points, and the Ohio Bobcats, who climbed 24 spots. Minnesota was the big mover in the top 25, jumping 13 spots to 15. The biggest fallers were Notre Dame who fell more than 6.5 points and Florida International who fell 26 spots. TCU Week-to-Week Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU @ KSU Tex PD: 18.43 14.00 35.33 | -12.33 -0.20 20.14 YD: 189.57 158.43 449.83 | 12.17 77.80 -23.14 Score: 20.93 16.56 44.08 | -7.67 3.43 12.37 So the Texas win was big, second highest in point differential for the Frogs (behind Kansas who has looked better than pathetic since), but was a year low in yardage differential. That dropped the DUSHEE score to better than Iowa St. and Kansas St., but below even the SMU loss. Not that Texas was a worse outcome, it certainly wasn't, but it indicated that DUSHEE thought the Frogs were a little lucky to beat Texas (4 INTs worth of luck) and very unlucky to have lost to SMU (two fumbles in the SMU red zone worth of unluck) Opponent Next Week: Okie Lite Opp: @ OreSt @ Tulsa @ Tex | KSU @ Ttech Bay | @ ISU PD: 10.00 13.17 1.86 | 23.80 -15.67 -1.80 | 25.00 YD: 72.40 118.00 -3.71 | 289.00 -158.83 68.40 | 81.00 Score: 9.97 14.16 1.07 | 30.57 -17.69 1.92 | 20.36 The Cowboys have looked great against two teams the Frogs looked terrible against, Kansas State and Iowa State. However, the Frogs were much better than the Cowboys against Texas. The Fightin' Mullets are ranked 36th in DUSHEE. DUSHEE likes the Frogs by about 2 points on the road, with about a 54% chance of winning. The game is basically a toss-up. Top/Bottom Performances of the Week Since I missed last week, I'll catch up Week 8 Top 3 +39.95 - Memphis vs. Tulane (+30 MOV, +166 YM) +38.94 - Appalachian St. vs. ULaMon (+45, +375) +38.66 - Ohio St. at Northwestern (+49, +290) Bottom 3 -43.16 Toledo at Ball (-38, -273) -34.73 Louisiana Monroe at AppSt (-45, -375) -34.27 Stanford vs. UCLA (-18, -273) Week 9 Top 3 +63.50 - Ohio St. vs. Wiscy (+31, +212) +61.96 - Clemson vs. BC (+52, +546) +52.01 - Michigan vs. ND (+31, +244) Bottom 3 -50.23 - Akron vs. NIU (-49, -207) -47.36 - Florida Intl. at MTSU (-33, -177) -43.66 - UMass vs. UConn (-21, -109) Conference Ratings The B1G just surpasses the Big XII-II as top conference. B10 9.96 B12 9.02 SEC 8.23 P12 3.55 AAC 1.99 ACC 0.53 MWC -5.06 SBC -5.96 CUSA -7.72 MAC -11.94 Overall Ratings Week 9 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St. 48.09 364.07 48.72 0 1.78 2 Clemson 30.44 291.91 33.65 3 4.47 3 Wisconsin 31.04 251.42 32.20 -1 -3.38 4 Alabama 30.36 195.91 29.21 2 0.33 5 LSU 28.07 215.13 28.56 -1 -0.94 6 Penn St. 28.36 153.91 25.95 1 -2.08 7 Utah 24.23 211.33 25.82 3 2.19 8 Oklahoma 22.70 230.86 25.70 -5 -4.22 9 Georgia 21.11 182.72 22.44 3 -0.24 10 Michigan 21.39 163.90 21.76 6 4.61 11 Auburn 23.82 117.45 21.26 -3 -3.02 12 Iowa St. 18.31 176.51 20.28 -3 -3.65 13 Oregon 21.93 119.66 20.10 -2 -3.11 14 Navy 17.40 136.00 17.82 0 -0.86 15 Minnesota 16.73 131.74 17.19 13 5.03 16 Air Force 14.84 139.25 16.27 6 1.66 17 Baylor 17.08 94.55 15.71 0 -1.34 18 Appalachian State 16.23 96.79 15.25 2 -0.19 19 Iowa 14.36 118.85 15.01 4 0.51 20 TCU 12.56 144.11 14.97 -5 -2.25 21 Notre Dame 16.42 73.63 14.31 -8 -6.56 22 Cincinnati 14.09 98.39 13.90 4 0.60 23 Florida 13.99 95.54 13.70 1 -0.68 24 Michigan St. 11.40 130.88 13.59 -6 -2.84 25 Boise St. 9.72 146.69 13.19 5 1.56 26 SMU 11.84 111.13 12.98 -5 -2.38 27 UCF 12.21 90.62 12.29 5 0.92 28 Texas 13.53 62.78 11.89 -3 -2.43 29 Memphis 12.09 62.35 10.91 -10 -5.30 30 North Carolina 8.45 111.58 10.74 3 -0.14 31 Tulane 9.85 84.83 10.45 3 -0.14 32 Texas A&M 10.77 70.31 10.39 -3 -1.30 33 Washington St. 10.32 72.13 10.18 6 1.77 34 Washington 13.55 7.61 9.38 1 -1.03 35 LA Lafayette 10.09 48.75 8.96 8 2.79 36 Oklahoma St. 8.05 66.61 8.42 4 1.67 37 Indiana 5.65 96.50 8.19 -1 -1.85 38 USC 10.64 23.70 8.18 -7 -3.32 39 Pittsburgh 4.19 93.40 7.07 -1 -1.57 40 Missouri 5.17 74.47 6.86 -13 -5.33 41 Kansas St. 10.04 -3.97 6.51 11 4.25 42 UAB 0.38 84.98 4.14 0 -2.12 43 Virginia 4.80 12.20 3.76 -6 -5.23 44 Florida Atlantic 5.41 -6.14 3.33 19 4.08 45 West. Kentucky 2.10 34.00 2.96 -1 -2.13 46 Louisville 3.95 4.37 2.83 2 -0.42 47 Florida St. 3.82 -4.37 2.35 9 1.51 48 Nebraska 0.39 41.03 2.14 13 2.39 49 Tulsa 0.39 38.26 2.01 11 1.97 50 Mississippi 0.93 23.76 1.70 -4 -2.49 51 South Carolina 1.12 7.16 1.07 -10 -5.42 52 Mississippi St. 0.36 17.71 1.05 -1 -1.27 53 Duke 2.32 -11.80 1.01 4 0.52 54 Houston 2.17 -10.02 0.99 15 3.16 55 Wake Forest 3.19 -25.29 0.97 -6 -1.94 56 Louisiana Tech 1.29 -0.76 0.83 -2 -0.66 57 Southern Miss -3.60 67.45 0.69 1 0.51 58 Kentucky 0.15 8.74 0.50 14 3.99 59 Miami (FL) -2.20 38.59 0.30 -4 -0.98 60 San Diego St. 1.26 -13.20 0.24 -7 -1.85 61 Arizona St. 1.44 -15.76 0.24 -14 -3.68 62 Texas Tech 0.05 3.97 0.22 -17 -4.07 63 Hawaii -4.56 51.13 -0.70 1 0.26 64 Ball St. -0.44 -12.13 -0.85 -2 -0.42 65 Wyoming 3.79 -74.71 -0.90 2 0.90 66 Tennessee -3.27 21.30 -1.21 7 2.37 67 Fresno St. -1.45 -10.31 -1.44 -8 -1.55 68 Georgia State -3.05 2.66 -1.91 24 6.20 69 BYU -3.02 1.78 -1.93 9 2.60 70 Temple -1.53 -21.78 -2.02 0 0.45 71 Utah St. -0.08 -43.81 -2.06 -21 -4.48 72 Illinois 2.64 -85.01 -2.13 3 1.85 73 UCLA -2.27 -15.98 -2.24 -2 0.55 74 Buffalo -5.98 12.41 -3.42 15 4.57 75 W. Michigan -1.95 -49.36 -3.56 8 2.66 76 Purdue -2.77 -49.41 -4.11 -8 -2.27 77 Colorado -4.73 -25.48 -4.32 5 1.17 78 Ohio -3.63 -44.09 -4.44 24 5.86 79 Marshall -5.72 -13.74 -4.44 18 4.54 80 Georgia Southern -4.47 -32.72 -4.48 6 2.68 81 Stanford -3.25 -55.53 -4.71 -2 0.55 82 Army -3.60 -52.58 -4.81 -6 -0.45 83 Northwestern -6.71 -8.58 -4.87 -9 -1.20 84 California -0.21 -103.99 -4.90 -18 -3.60 85 Coastal Carolina -4.87 -38.47 -5.01 11 3.60 86 Arkansas St. -4.16 -54.93 -5.29 -1 1.49 87 West Virginia -7.30 -35.05 -6.47 -10 -2.07 88 UNC-Charlotte -8.75 -15.71 -6.55 13 3.23 89 Northern Illinois -9.36 -15.19 -6.94 20 6.71 90 Kansas -6.04 -65.15 -7.01 -10 -1.73 91 Florida Intl. -6.57 -62.70 -7.25 -26 -6.14 92 Oregon St. -7.58 -50.47 -7.37 2 0.87 93 Arizona -8.36 -48.50 -7.80 -5 -0.25 94 Middle Tenn. St. -6.39 -81.81 -8.01 20 9.42 95 Boston Coll. -6.56 -79.89 -8.03 -11 -1.53 96 Arkansas -8.25 -56.67 -8.10 2 1.01 97 East. Michigan -6.15 -87.72 -8.12 -2 0.36 98 Cent. Michigan -11.78 -6.64 -8.16 -17 -2.73 99 North Texas -9.78 -37.04 -8.21 -6 -0.01 100 South Florida -9.83 -51.44 -8.90 3 1.70 101 Syracuse -6.87 -96.58 -9.00 -14 -1.55 102 Miami (OH) -9.43 -67.93 -9.40 8 4.67 103 Troy -10.98 -46.52 -9.45 -12 -1.38 104 Maryland -6.77 -120.40 -10.02 -14 -1.99 105 Colorado St. -14.14 -19.66 -10.33 1 2.87 106 N.C. State -10.89 -92.58 -11.50 -7 -2.02 107 Rice -11.90 -78.50 -11.53 -7 -1.74 108 Georgia Tech -11.83 -80.29 -11.56 -1 1.90 109 San Jose St. -10.88 -103.40 -11.99 2 2.41 110 Vanderbilt -13.01 -76.95 -12.19 -5 0.49 111 Toledo -14.00 -122.31 -14.93 7 3.90 112 Virginia Tech -13.08 -142.08 -15.23 -8 -3.54 113 LA Monroe -16.42 -117.06 -16.31 0 0.22 114 Liberty -16.51 -148.80 -17.82 -2 -2.97 115 Kent St. -15.18 -173.13 -18.05 -7 -4.57 116 New Mexico -20.16 -111.17 -18.53 3 1.08 117 UNLV -19.12 -141.62 -19.23 6 5.81 118 Texas St. -18.17 -155.87 -19.24 -2 -1.25 119 Old Dominion -20.54 -181.93 -22.02 -2 -3.71 120 South Alabama -21.02 -176.59 -22.10 2 1.86 121 UT-San Antonio -23.58 -151.60 -22.66 0 0.32 122 East Carolina -20.41 -198.22 -22.68 -7 -4.71 123 New Mexico St. -25.39 -141.83 -23.42 -3 -3.16 124 Connecticut -23.82 -173.28 -23.81 1 3.87 125 Rutgers -23.51 -186.37 -24.21 1 3.74 126 Nevada -25.91 -174.05 -25.24 -2 0.44 127 UTEP -29.05 -216.99 -29.30 1 4.45 128 Akron -33.10 -179.52 -30.28 -1 -1.69 129 Bowling Green -32.25 -297.37 -35.11 0 -0.77 130 Massachusetts -43.79 -322.19 -43.94 0 1.38 By Conference AAC 14 Navy 17.40 136.00 17.82 22 Cincinnati 14.09 98.39 13.90 26 SMU 11.84 111.13 12.98 27 UCF 12.21 90.62 12.29 29 Memphis 12.09 62.35 10.91 31 Tulane 9.85 84.83 10.45 49 Tulsa 0.39 38.26 2.01 54 Houston 2.17 -10.02 0.99 70 Temple -1.53 -21.78 -2.02 100 South Florida -9.83 -51.44 -8.90 122 East Carolina -20.41 -198.22 -22.68 124 Connecticut -23.82 -173.28 -23.81 ACC 2 Clemson 30.44 291.91 33.65 30 North Carolina 8.45 111.58 10.74 39 Pittsburgh 4.19 93.40 7.07 43 Virginia 4.80 12.20 3.76 46 Louisville 3.95 4.37 2.83 47 Florida St. 3.82 -4.37 2.35 53 Duke 2.32 -11.80 1.01 55 Wake Forest 3.19 -25.29 0.97 59 Miami (FL) -2.20 38.59 0.30 95 Boston Coll. -6.56 -79.89 -8.03 101 Syracuse -6.87 -96.58 -9.00 106 N.C. State -10.89 -92.58 -11.50 108 Georgia Tech -11.83 -80.29 -11.56 112 Virginia Tech -13.08 -142.08 -15.23 B1G 1 Ohio St. 48.09 364.07 48.72 3 Wisconsin 31.04 251.42 32.20 6 Penn St. 28.36 153.91 25.95 10 Michigan 21.39 163.90 21.76 15 Minnesota 16.73 131.74 17.19 19 Iowa 14.36 118.85 15.01 24 Michigan St. 11.40 130.88 13.59 37 Indiana 5.65 96.50 8.19 48 Nebraska 0.39 41.03 2.14 72 Illinois 2.64 -85.01 -2.13 76 Purdue -2.77 -49.41 -4.11 83 Northwestern -6.71 -8.58 -4.87 104 Maryland -6.77 -120.40 -10.02 125 Rutgers -23.51 -186.37 -24.21 BXII-II 8 Oklahoma 22.70 230.86 25.70 12 Iowa St. 18.31 176.51 20.28 17 Baylor 17.08 94.55 15.71 20 TCU 12.56 144.11 14.97 28 Texas 13.53 62.78 11.89 36 Oklahoma St. 8.05 66.61 8.42 41 Kansas St. 10.04 -3.97 6.51 62 Texas Tech 0.05 3.97 0.22 87 West Virginia -7.30 -35.05 -6.47 90 Kansas -6.04 -65.15 -7.01 CUSA 42 UAB 0.38 84.98 4.14 44 Florida Atlantic 5.41 -6.14 3.33 45 West. Kentucky 2.10 34.00 2.96 56 Louisiana Tech 1.29 -0.76 0.83 57 Southern Miss -3.60 67.45 0.69 79 Marshall -5.72 -13.74 -4.44 88 UNC-Charlotte -8.75 -15.71 -6.55 91 Florida Intl. -6.57 -62.70 -7.25 94 Middle Tenn. St. -6.39 -81.81 -8.01 99 North Texas -9.78 -37.04 -8.21 107 Rice -11.90 -78.50 -11.53 119 Old Dominion -20.54 -181.93 -22.02 121 UT-San Antonio -23.58 -151.60 -22.66 127 UTEP -29.05 -216.99 -29.30 Indies 21 Notre Dame 16.42 73.63 14.31 69 BYU -3.02 1.78 -1.93 82 Army -3.60 -52.58 -4.81 114 Liberty -16.51 -148.80 -17.82 123 New Mexico St. -25.39 -141.83 -23.42 130 Massachusetts -43.79 -322.19 -43.94 MAC 64 Ball St. -0.44 -12.13 -0.85 74 Buffalo -5.98 12.41 -3.42 75 W. Michigan -1.95 -49.36 -3.56 78 Ohio -3.63 -44.09 -4.44 89 Northern Illinois -9.36 -15.19 -6.94 97 East. Michigan -6.15 -87.72 -8.12 98 Cent. Michigan -11.78 -6.64 -8.16 102 Miami (OH) -9.43 -67.93 -9.40 111 Toledo -14.00 -122.31 -14.93 115 Kent St. -15.18 -173.13 -18.05 128 Akron -33.10 -179.52 -30.28 129 Bowling Green -32.25 -297.37 -35.11 MWC 16 Air Force 14.84 139.25 16.27 25 Boise St. 9.72 146.69 13.19 60 San Diego St. 1.26 -13.20 0.24 63 Hawaii -4.56 51.13 -0.70 65 Wyoming 3.79 -74.71 -0.90 67 Fresno St. -1.45 -10.31 -1.44 71 Utah St. -0.08 -43.81 -2.06 105 Colorado St. -14.14 -19.66 -10.33 109 San Jose St. -10.88 -103.40 -11.99 116 New Mexico -20.16 -111.17 -18.53 117 UNLV -19.12 -141.62 -19.23 126 Nevada -25.91 -174.05 -25.24 P12 7 Utah 24.23 211.33 25.82 13 Oregon 21.93 119.66 20.10 33 Washington St. 10.32 72.13 10.18 34 Washington 13.55 7.61 9.38 38 USC 10.64 23.70 8.18 61 Arizona St. 1.44 -15.76 0.24 73 UCLA -2.27 -15.98 -2.24 77 Colorado -4.73 -25.48 -4.32 81 Stanford -3.25 -55.53 -4.71 84 California -0.21 -103.99 -4.90 92 Oregon St. -7.58 -50.47 -7.37 93 Arizona -8.36 -48.50 -7.80 SBC 18 Appalachian State 16.23 96.79 15.25 35 LA Lafayette 10.09 48.75 8.96 68 Georgia State -3.05 2.66 -1.91 80 Georgia Southern -4.47 -32.72 -4.48 85 Coastal Carolina -4.87 -38.47 -5.01 86 Arkansas St. -4.16 -54.93 -5.29 103 Troy -10.98 -46.52 -9.45 113 LA Monroe -16.42 -117.06 -16.31 118 Texas St. -18.17 -155.87 -19.24 120 South Alabama -21.02 -176.59 -22.10 SEC 4 Alabama 30.36 195.91 29.21 5 LSU 28.07 215.13 28.56 9 Georgia 21.11 182.72 22.44 11 Auburn 23.82 117.45 21.26 23 Florida 13.99 95.54 13.70 32 Texas A&M 10.77 70.31 10.39 40 Missouri 5.17 74.47 6.86 50 Mississippi 0.93 23.76 1.70 51 South Carolina 1.12 7.16 1.07 52 Mississippi St. 0.36 17.71 1.05 58 Kentucky 0.15 8.74 0.50 66 Tennessee -3.27 21.30 -1.21 96 Arkansas -8.25 -56.67 -8.10 110 Vanderbilt -13.01 -76.95 -12.19
  4. 1 point
    The B1G holds the top two spots as Ohio State remains #1 and Wisconsin leaps two spots to #2. The Frogs had the largest drop in Score (-16.0), falling from 9 to 18. Since no one is in much of a mood to bullshit about college football, we'll get right to it. Frogs Week-to-Week Not surprisingly, the Frogs performance at Iowa State sucked. Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU PD: 16.00 15.40 34.25 | -8.67 YD: 132.25 157.80 447.25 | 12.33 Score: 16.91 17.72 43.96 | -5.20 Frogs' Next Opponent Bye. Thank God. Conference Ratings Big XII-II still on top, but the lead over the SEC and B1G shrunk considerably. MACtion appears to be particularly putrid this year. B12 14.42 SEC 12.41 B10 11.06 P12 5.65 ACC 2.57 AAC 1.87 MWC -7.25 SBC -10.18 CUSA -12.62 MAC -17.15 Performances of the Week Top 3 50.61 - LSU vs. USU (+36 PM, +440 YM) 46.20 - Ohio St. vs. Mich St. (+24, +242) 45.45 - Iowa St. vs. TCU (+25, +117) Bottom 3 -61.39 - UMass at FIU (-44, -316) -52.54 - UConn vs. USF (-26, -226) -47.93 - E. Michigan at CMU (-26, -340) Overall Ratings Largest gainers: Minnesota +31 in ranking, FIU +14.88 in Score Largest losers: E. Michigan -44 in ranking, TCU -16.00 in Score Week 6 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St. 47.96 361.74 49.06 0 -3.02 2 Wisconsin 40.38 320.42 42.06 2 4.65 3 Alabama 37.70 247.45 36.82 2 -0.19 4 Iowa St. 34.58 289.54 36.73 -2 -4.28 5 Penn St. 36.25 258.35 36.37 3 1.89 6 LSU 32.04 248.23 33.08 7 5.55 7 Oklahoma 28.98 250.98 31.17 0 -4.87 8 Georgia 30.25 218.50 30.49 -2 -5.95 9 Clemson 26.43 247.33 29.30 1 -0.62 10 Auburn 27.10 158.24 25.54 -7 -11.96 11 Missouri 24.08 180.17 24.56 6 2.39 12 Notre Dame 27.07 135.20 24.43 -1 -5.30 13 Michigan St. 19.81 195.87 22.46 2 -2.91 14 Oregon 23.68 131.68 22.01 0 -4.33 15 Texas 24.50 114.14 21.72 -3 -7.42 16 Baylor 20.90 146.98 20.88 10 5.85 17 Michigan 19.72 124.08 19.00 8 3.22 18 TCU 14.25 187.41 18.35 -9 -16.00 19 Florida 15.14 150.79 17.21 9 2.73 20 Navy 13.89 146.56 16.18 -1 -3.73 21 Utah 13.23 149.63 15.89 8 1.40 22 Iowa 14.92 109.55 15.12 0 -2.46 23 Memphis 16.10 90.88 15.03 -5 -7.12 24 UCF 12.49 133.88 14.65 3 -0.02 25 SMU 12.49 127.44 14.34 -4 -5.05 26 Texas A&M 12.50 111.11 13.58 -2 -2.21 27 Pittsburgh 10.40 134.27 13.27 -4 -2.63 28 Oklahoma St. 11.80 102.35 12.70 -12 -11.51 29 Tulane 13.92 58.43 12.04 17 6.00 30 Air Force 7.96 140.73 11.95 2 0.43 31 Cincinnati 9.71 95.46 10.98 8 2.05 32 Virginia 11.17 66.25 10.57 4 1.04 33 Boise St. 4.27 150.94 9.98 -2 -3.48 34 Washington 15.22 -9.73 9.68 -14 -9.80 35 Appalachian State 14.18 -1.33 9.39 7 1.63 36 North Carolina 7.54 80.65 8.84 1 -0.59 37 Mississippi 8.88 60.45 8.78 -2 -1.01 38 South Carolina 8.26 51.89 7.96 9 2.54 39 USC 9.22 33.47 7.73 1 -0.78 40 Louisville 7.13 61.56 7.66 11 3.67 41 Mississippi St. 8.23 42.31 7.49 -8 -3.51 42 Hawaii 6.40 60.81 7.14 -1 -0.99 43 Houston 10.00 0.25 6.68 1 -0.47 44 Minnesota 4.75 71.71 6.55 31 10.39 45 LA Lafayette 6.38 34.83 5.90 12 4.27 46 Indiana 4.38 60.53 5.78 -8 -3.63 47 Arizona St. 7.86 3.31 5.40 -17 -8.36 48 Miami (FL) -1.79 134.55 5.16 7 2.44 49 Duke 9.13 -23.15 4.99 0 0.04 50 Nebraska 4.05 46.51 4.90 -7 -2.79 51 Tulsa 4.16 41.00 4.71 1 1.04 52 West. Kentucky 3.83 45.42 4.70 28 10.90 53 Florida St. 4.93 24.93 4.47 1 1.74 54 Texas Tech 3.46 45.75 4.47 19 7.59 55 California 9.80 -46.58 4.33 -2 1.60 56 Maryland 8.77 -41.48 3.89 23 9.74 57 Utah St. 4.71 14.94 3.84 -23 -7.01 58 Florida Atlantic 3.51 25.05 3.52 -10 -1.47 59 Stanford 3.10 14.72 2.76 12 4.89 60 Colorado 3.76 4.57 2.72 -10 -1.82 61 Wake Forest 6.57 -35.15 2.72 -16 -3.73 62 Arizona 4.03 -3.04 2.55 -4 2.78 63 West Virginia 1.96 16.27 2.07 0 3.19 64 UAB -1.13 44.51 1.35 0 2.50 65 Washington St. 0.88 4.47 0.80 -6 1.40 66 Kansas St. 3.63 -54.63 -0.16 -10 -2.10 67 Fresno St. -3.35 32.09 -0.72 10 3.92 68 Northwestern -2.17 13.69 -0.80 -8 0.19 69 Wyoming 6.50 -113.46 -1.03 -1 0.74 70 W. Michigan -1.79 -1.90 -1.28 -5 -0.02 71 Oregon St. -2.58 -5.86 -2.00 -5 -0.72 72 Kentucky -1.22 -56.50 -3.48 -5 -1.87 73 Cent. Michigan -7.27 26.23 -3.61 23 9.68 74 North Texas -6.02 6.37 -3.71 4 1.98 75 Kansas -4.33 -18.63 -3.77 -1 -0.23 76 Arkansas -6.19 2.25 -4.02 9 4.94 77 UCLA -3.18 -40.28 -4.02 -15 -2.93 78 Temple -6.15 -9.71 -4.56 14 5.69 79 Army -3.17 -59.09 -4.90 9 4.47 80 Southern Miss -8.50 3.08 -5.52 -8 -2.42 81 N.C. State -6.42 -36.75 -6.01 1 1.56 82 San Diego St. -5.84 -46.95 -6.11 -6 -1.95 83 Coastal Carolina -6.98 -44.31 -6.75 -14 -4.77 84 Florida Intl. -5.58 -77.75 -7.39 29 14.88 85 Toledo -5.56 -79.19 -7.45 15 6.99 86 Syracuse -2.50 -123.83 -7.52 8 5.17 87 Buffalo -12.68 15.68 -7.71 -3 0.64 88 Rice -7.57 -57.00 -7.74 -7 -0.23 89 BYU -8.15 -68.53 -8.67 -6 -1.00 90 Boston Coll. -9.00 -88.72 -10.19 -3 -0.87 91 Tennessee -14.75 -9.17 -10.27 19 10.33 92 Louisiana Tech -10.37 -89.62 -11.15 13 5.27 93 UNC-Charlotte -11.81 -72.85 -11.32 -3 -1.41 94 Troy -12.23 -67.27 -11.33 -5 -1.62 95 Virginia Tech -10.52 -92.90 -11.40 0 1.85 96 Georgia Southern -11.19 -83.81 -11.42 7 4.39 97 Purdue -9.75 -106.43 -11.53 -11 -2.47 98 South Florida -14.25 -51.51 -11.93 9 5.96 99 LA Monroe -12.75 -73.10 -11.95 17 10.63 100 Arkansas St. -9.68 -124.27 -12.32 -30 -10.20 101 San Jose St. -12.44 -86.65 -12.38 0 2.17 102 Illinois -7.84 -161.35 -12.85 -11 -2.74 103 Colorado St. -16.97 -44.32 -13.40 -6 0.26 104 Vanderbilt -13.83 -101.85 -14.03 -11 -3.45 105 East. Michigan -11.77 -149.94 -14.93 -44 -13.86 106 Ohio -14.52 -116.58 -15.19 5 6.60 107 Ball St. -16.17 -97.58 -15.39 -8 -1.10 108 Georgia Tech -16.82 -99.37 -15.90 6 6.59 109 Miami (OH) -14.46 -140.46 -16.28 -11 -2.27 110 Texas St. -14.58 -145.35 -16.59 -1 3.44 111 Liberty -16.08 -132.77 -16.99 -7 -0.90 112 Kent St. -15.97 -164.30 -18.40 -10 -2.78 113 Northern Illinois -23.42 -61.45 -18.52 2 4.06 114 Marshall -20.19 -124.38 -19.33 -6 0.54 115 Old Dominion -19.67 -138.42 -19.65 2 3.14 116 Georgia State -22.90 -108.88 -20.41 7 10.91 117 New Mexico -22.60 -131.55 -21.28 5 7.47 118 East Carolina -21.88 -170.13 -22.62 3 5.05 119 New Mexico St. -24.88 -131.46 -22.79 1 4.86 120 Middle Tenn. St. -17.60 -234.79 -22.83 -8 -0.66 121 Rutgers -26.07 -164.82 -25.16 -15 -7.88 122 South Alabama -25.37 -199.81 -26.35 -3 0.42 123 UT-San Antonio -32.58 -164.17 -29.48 2 5.06 124 UNLV -29.83 -227.27 -30.62 3 6.55 125 Akron -32.57 -229.83 -32.57 -1 -0.03 126 Connecticut -32.44 -243.06 -33.10 -8 -10.18 127 Nevada -33.63 -253.50 -34.39 -1 0.75 128 UTEP -47.33 -350.42 -48.11 1 5.93 129 Massachusetts -47.67 -350.67 -48.34 -1 -2.98 130 Bowling Green -51.15 -432.69 -54.53 0 4.26 By Conference AAC 20 Navy 13.89 146.56 16.18 23 Memphis 16.10 90.88 15.03 24 UCF 12.49 133.88 14.65 25 SMU 12.49 127.44 14.34 29 Tulane 13.92 58.43 12.04 31 Cincinnati 9.71 95.46 10.98 43 Houston 10.00 0.25 6.68 51 Tulsa 4.16 41.00 4.71 78 Temple -6.15 -9.71 -4.56 98 South Florida -14.25 -51.51 -11.93 118 East Carolina -21.88 -170.13 -22.62 126 Connecticut -32.44 -243.06 -33.10 ACC 9 Clemson 26.43 247.33 29.30 27 Pittsburgh 10.40 134.27 13.27 32 Virginia 11.17 66.25 10.57 36 North Carolina 7.54 80.65 8.84 40 Louisville 7.13 61.56 7.66 48 Miami (FL) -1.79 134.55 5.16 49 Duke 9.13 -23.15 4.99 53 Florida St. 4.93 24.93 4.47 61 Wake Forest 6.57 -35.15 2.72 81 N.C. State -6.42 -36.75 -6.01 86 Syracuse -2.50 -123.83 -7.52 90 Boston Coll. -9.00 -88.72 -10.19 95 Virginia Tech -10.52 -92.90 -11.40 108 Georgia Tech -16.82 -99.37 -15.90 B1G 1 Ohio St. 47.96 361.74 49.06 2 Wisconsin 40.38 320.42 42.06 5 Penn St. 36.25 258.35 36.37 13 Michigan St. 19.81 195.87 22.46 17 Michigan 19.72 124.08 19.00 22 Iowa 14.92 109.55 15.12 44 Minnesota 4.75 71.71 6.55 46 Indiana 4.38 60.53 5.78 50 Nebraska 4.05 46.51 4.90 56 Maryland 8.77 -41.48 3.89 68 Northwestern -2.17 13.69 -0.80 97 Purdue -9.75 -106.43 -11.53 102 Illinois -7.84 -161.35 -12.85 121 Rutgers -26.07 -164.82 -25.16 BXII-II 4 Iowa St. 34.58 289.54 36.73 7 Oklahoma 28.98 250.98 31.17 15 Texas 24.50 114.14 21.72 16 Baylor 20.90 146.98 20.88 18 TCU 14.25 187.41 18.35 28 Oklahoma St. 11.80 102.35 12.70 54 Texas Tech 3.46 45.75 4.47 63 West Virginia 1.96 16.27 2.07 66 Kansas St. 3.63 -54.63 -0.16 75 Kansas -4.33 -18.63 -3.77 CUSA 52 West. Kentucky 3.83 45.42 4.70 58 Florida Atlantic 3.51 25.05 3.52 64 UAB -1.13 44.51 1.35 74 North Texas -6.02 6.37 -3.71 80 Southern Miss -8.50 3.08 -5.52 84 Florida Intl. -5.58 -77.75 -7.39 88 Rice -7.57 -57.00 -7.74 92 Louisiana Tech -10.37 -89.62 -11.15 93 UNC-Charlotte -11.81 -72.85 -11.32 114 Marshall -20.19 -124.38 -19.33 115 Old Dominion -19.67 -138.42 -19.65 120 Middle Tenn. St. -17.60 -234.79 -22.83 123 UT-San Antonio -32.58 -164.17 -29.48 128 UTEP -47.33 -350.42 -48.11 Indies 12 Notre Dame 27.07 135.20 24.43 79 Army -3.17 -59.09 -4.90 89 BYU -8.15 -68.53 -8.67 111 Liberty -16.08 -132.77 -16.99 119 New Mexico St. -24.88 -131.46 -22.79 129 Massachusetts -47.67 -350.67 -48.34 MAC 70 W. Michigan -1.79 -1.90 -1.28 73 Cent. Michigan -7.27 26.23 -3.61 85 Toledo -5.56 -79.19 -7.45 87 Buffalo -12.68 15.68 -7.71 105 East. Michigan -11.77 -149.94 -14.93 106 Ohio -14.52 -116.58 -15.19 107 Ball St. -16.17 -97.58 -15.39 109 Miami (OH) -14.46 -140.46 -16.28 112 Kent St. -15.97 -164.30 -18.40 113 Northern Illinois -23.42 -61.45 -18.52 125 Akron -32.57 -229.83 -32.57 130 Bowling Green -51.15 -432.69 -54.53 MWC 30 Air Force 7.96 140.73 11.95 33 Boise St. 4.27 150.94 9.98 42 Hawaii 6.40 60.81 7.14 57 Utah St. 4.71 14.94 3.84 67 Fresno St. -3.35 32.09 -0.72 69 Wyoming 6.50 -113.46 -1.03 82 San Diego St. -5.84 -46.95 -6.11 101 San Jose St. -12.44 -86.65 -12.38 103 Colorado St. -16.97 -44.32 -13.40 117 New Mexico -22.60 -131.55 -21.28 124 UNLV -29.83 -227.27 -30.62 127 Nevada -33.63 -253.50 -34.39 P12 14 Oregon 23.68 131.68 22.01 21 Utah 13.23 149.63 15.89 34 Washington 15.22 -9.73 9.68 39 USC 9.22 33.47 7.73 47 Arizona St. 7.86 3.31 5.40 55 California 9.80 -46.58 4.33 59 Stanford 3.10 14.72 2.76 60 Colorado 3.76 4.57 2.72 62 Arizona 4.03 -3.04 2.55 65 Washington St. 0.88 4.47 0.80 71 Oregon St. -2.58 -5.86 -2.00 77 UCLA -3.18 -40.28 -4.02 SBC 35 Appalachian State 14.18 -1.33 9.39 45 LA Lafayette 6.38 34.83 5.90 83 Coastal Carolina -6.98 -44.31 -6.75 94 Troy -12.23 -67.27 -11.33 96 Georgia Southern -11.19 -83.81 -11.42 99 LA Monroe -12.75 -73.10 -11.95 100 Arkansas St. -9.68 -124.27 -12.32 110 Texas St. -14.58 -145.35 -16.59 116 Georgia State -22.90 -108.88 -20.41 122 South Alabama -25.37 -199.81 -26.35 SEC 3 Alabama 37.70 247.45 36.82 6 LSU 32.04 248.23 33.08 8 Georgia 30.25 218.50 30.49 10 Auburn 27.10 158.24 25.54 11 Missouri 24.08 180.17 24.56 19 Florida 15.14 150.79 17.21 26 Texas A&M 12.50 111.11 13.58 37 Mississippi 8.88 60.45 8.78 38 South Carolina 8.26 51.89 7.96 41 Mississippi St. 8.23 42.31 7.49 72 Kentucky -1.22 -56.50 -3.48 76 Arkansas -6.19 2.25 -4.02 91 Tennessee -14.75 -9.17 -10.27 104 Vanderbilt -13.83 -101.85 -14.03
  5. 1 point
    The "Extra Crispy" Formula If you are a regular reader of this blog, you have heard me preach innumerable times that there is nothing mystical about computational models, be they models of college football team performance or models of hurricanes. The only thing that differentiates a "computer" model and a human "gut" feeling is the amount of data used and the amount of bias awareness built in. So in a previous edition of this blog, we talked about my most recent attempt to acknowledge some potential biases in DUSHEE. These tweaks resulted in the "Extra Crispy" formulation of DUSHEE which was supposed to correct some of the perceived biases of the "Original" formulation: overrating Group of 5 WTF teams, overemphasizing outlier performances when a team does far better or worse than they have on average over the rest of the season. But if you've noticed, and no doubt you have, I kinda ignore the "Extra Crispy" formulation, at least until bowl season, when it reemerges. I ignore it because it severely punishes teams with weak SoS, which means it severely punishes Group of 5 schools. In other words, I think it has swung the pendulum too far the other way. The "Extra Crispy" formulation would have heavily penalized the MWC-era Frogs for being in the MWC. And that rankles my own personal bias ... a bunch of Power 5 blue bloods in the top 25 is boring. And, as I've argued before, if you secretly replaced Coastal Carolina's roster with the New England Patriots and had them play a Sun Belt Conference schedule, they'd still be the best team in college football, even if they were playing teams like Texas State and South Alabama every week. The DUSHEE methodology compares Team A's performance against Team B to how the rest of Team B's opponents did against them. And if most teams play a random sampling of teams throughout the distribution of college football teams (i.e., some good, some bad) then the methodology works pretty well. The inherent problem, of course, is that college football scheduling is not a random sampling; teams in good conferences play a disproportionate number of good teams and teams in bad conferences skew bad. And if the best team in a bad conference beats up on their conference opponents but never plays an opponent from a good conference, the basis for comparison between that team and teams in that better conference becomes weak. Case Study: The Utah State Aggies Let's look at the 2018 Utah State team. DUSHEE thought very highly of Utah State last season, ranking them 9th overall at season's end (Original Formulation). Their game-by-game Point Differentials and opponent strength are shown below. Utah State Opp: @ MichSt NMSU AFA | @ BYU UNLV @ Wyo | UNM @ Haw SJSU | @ CSU @ Boise N UNT PD: -5.92 30.00 12.60 | 31.73 21.00 6.90 | 31.50 35.50 24.00 | -9.60 4.67 52.00 YD: -75.92 69.70 59.70 | 69.91 120.90 -144.90 | 271.00 175.83 245.60 | -250.20 17.33 345.70 OF Score: -7.62 23.37 11.29 | 24.53 19.85 -2.41 | 34.10 32.17 27.87 | -18.50 3.95 51.38 SoS: 5.72 -23.47 2.12 | 5.80 -14.57 -0.68 | -17.78 -8.98 -20.57 | -13.47 15.26 4.90 Utah State played the 118th toughest schedule out of 130 in FBS last season. They racked up big point differentials largely on the weakest of those opponents: New Mexico State, UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii, San Jose State. Half of their schedule was against teams that were more than a touchdown worse than an average FBS team and against those teams they averaged a PD of 22.1 against those teams. One thing that good teams should do is crush bad teams, and Utah State did that, save for squeaking by a bad Colorado State in week 12. The Aggies also played four slightly above average teams (Michigan State, Air Force, BYU, and UNT) and the results were mixed with Utah State crushing BYU and UNT, a solid 10-point win against Air Force and losing by a TD against Sparty. Utah State played one team that was a TD or more better than an average team -- Boise. And in that game, Utah State performed like a slightly above average team, losing to the Broncos by 9, which was 4.67 points better than the rest of Boise's opponents did. There is evidence that Utah State was a very good football team last year. With the exception of CSU, they crushed the bad teams on their schedule and they crushed two of the five mediocre teams they played. But the flip side of that coin is that Utah State were just okay against the other 3 mediocre teams and the one legitimately good team they played. So is that the resume of a top 10 team in the country? If A&M or LSU (the teams just above and below USU in the DUSHEE rankings, who also happened to have the 1st and 2nd toughest schedules according to DUSHEE) had played the same schedule, would they have had similar results? And Now the Tweaks So if it seems like Utah State was rewarded disproportionately for beating up bad opponents, what do we do? What the Extra Crispy Formulation did before was simply add the opponent's strength to the team's score against that team. In hindsight, that was a lazy cudgel, using a flame-thrower to correct a problem that requires a delicate scalpel. Now, we nudge the individual score with the opponent strength divided by the number of games played. I have also added a reward for games played on the road (acknowledging that playing on the road is statistically about 3 points harder on the road than at home). So if we were to take Utah State's DUSHEE (Original Formula) point totals and show the adjustments now made by the Extra Crispy formula, we get: Opp: @ MichSt NMSU AFA | @ BYU UNLV @ Wyo | UNM @ Haw SJSU | @ CSU @ Boise N UNT | Adjustment Sum OF Score: -7.62 23.37 11.29 | 24.53 19.85 -2.41 | 34.10 32.17 27.87 | -18.50 3.95 51.38 | Outlier Adjustment: +1.34 -0.06 +0.05 | -0.11 +0.06 +0.22 | -0.08 -0.25 +0.07 | +2.28 +0.28 -2.83 | +0.97 SoS Adjustment: +0.48 -1.96 +0.18 | +0.48 -1.21 -0.06 | -1.48 -0.75 -1.71 | -1.12 +1.27 +0.41 | -5.47 Home Field Adjustment: +1.52 -1.52 -1.52 | +1.52 -1.52 +1.52 | -1.52 +1.52 -1.52 | +1.52 +1.52 0.00 | +1.52 Total Adjustment: +3.34 -3.54 -1.29 | +1.89 -2.67 +1.68 | -3.08 +0.33 -3.16 | +2.68 +3.07 -2.42 | -3.17 XC Score: -4.28 19.83 10.00 | 26.43 17.17 -0.73 | 31.01 32.69 24.70 | -15.82 7.02 47.44 Over a large population of games, one would expect the Outlier Adjustment for poor performances to balance the great performances over the course of a season, but since we have a sample size of 12 here, it doesn't. In this case, the Aggies two negative outliers (Michigan State and Colorado State) were slightly more "outliery" than their one positive outlier (North Texas). I am not sure if the Outlier Adjustment is large enough (e.g., should the "aberrational" effect of being more than 15 points better against North Texas than they were anybody else be "corrected" by more than 2.83 points?) But for now I'm keeping it where it is. Overall, Utah State's ranking would not have changed based on this new set of corrections, not because their score didn't drop (it did) but because it did not change the ordering of teams once all of them were "corrected" too. But perhaps the corrected formula comes a little closer to judging Utah State accurately? What say you, Frog rabble? Are the corrections too small? Too big? What else should be considered, taking into account that I'm probably not going to be willing to look at any additional stats beyond points and yards because this thing already takes entirely too much time to piss around with. Even if I love pissing around with it so.
  6. 1 point
    Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter. ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton. But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard right, THIRTEEN wins! ... and sponsored by what can only be described as the most iconic brand of highly processed, nominally cheese-based, boxed snack cracker (yes, you heard me Cheese Nips, #$%@ you), the inimitable, the indefatigable, the inestimable ... I get a little chill running down my spine just seeing that picture. The state of Arizona hasn't been very good to the Horned Frogs over the last 45 years. Our two bowl games in the state represent two of the last three bowl losses LRBW2XAPCotYHCGMFP has sustained, the ugly 17-16 loss to Michigan State in the 2012 BW3 Bowl, the painful 17-10 loss to Boise in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. The Frogs are also 1-3 all time against Arizona schools, although the one win did come in the state of Arizona, another low-scoring win (13-10) in 2003 against the Arizona team that John Mackovic ruined after he ruined UT. And you can almost bet the house that this game will be another low scoring contest as both teams have stout defenses and borderline anemic offenses. Here are Cal's numbers week-to-week: Opp: UNC @ BYU Ore | @ Zona UCLA @ OreSt | Wash @ WSU @ USC | Col Stan PD: -2.20 5.10 -12.40 | -12.30 -43.09 20.40 | 11.55 8.20 0.09 | 9.90 -6.00 YD: -51.30 142.70 -28.10 | -175.50 -99.18 152.00 | 88.00 -11.00 -82.36 | -125.00 3.10 DO: -3.95 10.31 -9.63 | -16.70 -33.53 20.96 | 11.96 4.93 -3.93 | 0.54 -3.85 Score: 24-17 21-18 24-42 | 17-24 7-37 49-7 | 12-10 13-19 15-14 | 33-21 13-23 Particularly after Cal's inexplicable blow-out loss to UCLA, their defense was stout, giving up an average of 16 points a game over the last half of the season. But make no mistake, taken as a whole, Cal has shown very little evidence that they are anything other than an utterly average team. Their only fairly impressive performances were a blow-out win against a hapless Oregon State and a solid shutdown of the Huskies in Week 9. They struggled to beat a bad North Carolina team, lost to a bad Arizona team, and were a little lucky to have beaten USC and Colorado late in the year in games where they were significantly outgained. Of course, the Frogs were pretty damn average most of this season too. As done last year, I'll compare how DUSHEE, Sagarin (Predictor), and SRS see the bowl matchups as compared to the opening Vegas odds. When I checked the ESPN site linked above, oddsmakers had the Cheez-It Bowl even, but all the computer models like the Horned Frogs. Throughout this post DO = DUSHEE Original, DX = DUSHEE Extra Crispy, DA = average of DO and DX, Sag = Sagarin, and SoS is the DUSHEE-based strength of schedule. Here are the computer numbers for the two teams Bowl Location Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Cheez-It Phoenix, AZ TCU 6-6 0.72 4.49 76.09 3.33 4.52 California 7-5 -2.08 -1.82 73.15 2.34 0.18 The Frogs have had a clear advantage in Strength of Schedule, which makes TCU a stronger favorite in the DX model, by almost a TD. DUSHEE Original and Sagarin like the Frogs by roughly a field goal and SRS likes the Frogs by a point. DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU 2.80 TCU 6.31 TCU 4.56 TCU 0 TCU 2.94 TCU 1.0 Other Big XII-II Bowls It's a bit of a rough slate of games for the Big XII-II. Only West Virginia is favored based on the starting lines coming out of Vegas and the Frogs are the only other team favored by the computers. There is a good chance the conference comes out of the bowl season no better than 2-5. Texas It's the Rapey Bears against the Gilded Age Robber Barons in this battle of mediocrity in Houston. All of the computer models like the Commodores (She's a brick .... house) both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Baylor 6-6 -3.51 -2.34 69.95 2.03 1.47 Vanderbilt 6-6 3.20 7.09 73.31 7.85 6.38 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Vanderbilt 6.71 Vanderbilt 9.42 Vanderbilt 8.07 Vanderbilt 2.5 Vanderbilt 3.36 Vanderbilt 5.8 Camping World West Virginia is the clear favorite in Disney World against the Sicilian Orangepersons. Only the SRS metric doesn't like the Mountaineers against the spread. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS West Virginia 8-3 14.84 19.70 85.94 13.73 2.01 Syracuse 9-3 6.02 5.52 77.19 11.08 -0.90 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS West Virginia 8.82 West Virginia 14.19 West Virginia 11.50 West Virginia 7 West Virginia 8.75 West Virginia 2.7 Alamo The location of many a furious and historic Frog comeback sees the return of the dread pirate Mike Leach against an Iowa State team that faded coming down the stretch. The computer models all agree that the starting line on this game was far too low with DUSHEE and Sagarin both liking the Cougars by more than a touchdown. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Iowa St. 8-4 5.47 4.79 75.62 7.73 2.73 Washington St. 10-2 13.53 14.27 83.46 12.46 -1.45 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Washington St. 8.06 Washington St. 9.48 Washington St. 8.77 Washington St. 1.5 Washington St. 7.84 Washington St. 4.7 Liberty Another matchup where the computer models think Vegas is being far too generous with the Big XII-II team, all taking the Tigers ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Missouri 8-4 16.65 22.70 84.27 15.19 7.84 Oklahoma St. 6-6 4.84 7.74 78.75 5.52 2.74 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Missouri 11.80 Missouri 14.96 Missouri 13.38 Missouri 4.5 Missouri 5.52 Missouri 9.7 NY6 Bowls Peach Everybody likes the Khaki Pants in this one. Only the SRS would take Flo Rida, barely, ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Florida 9-3 10.59 15.63 82.91 12.20 6.78 Michigan 10-2 24.34 28.24 91.78 19.25 3.06 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Michigan 13.75 Michigan 12.61 Michigan 13.18 Michigan 7.5 Michigan 8.87 Michigan 7.1 Fiesta The first game in our summary where there is substantial disagreement between the models. Generally speaking, this most often happens when there is a big difference in strengths of schedule, as is the case this time. Starting off, Vegas likes LSU a lot, so much so that all the computer models, while disagreeing on the winner SU, all like the Kaniggits ATS. DUSHEE Original and the SRS like UCF to win the game, DUSHEE XC and Sagarin like the Bayou Bengals. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS LSU 9-3 13.78 19.59 84.00 14.73 7.85 UCF 12-0 18.26 17.77 82.46 16.22 -2.57 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCF 4.48 LSU 1.82 UCF 1.33 LSU 10 LSU 1.54 UCF 1.5 Rose Unanimous agreement that the Buckeyes are both the favorite SU and ATS. Only about 2.5 points separates the models. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio St. 12-1 19.13 21.49 91.87 18.09 1.07 Washington 10-3 12.00 13.95 86.84 11.84 2.60 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St. 7.13 Ohio St. 7.54 Ohio St. 7.34 Ohio St. 4 Ohio St. 5.03 Ohio St. 6.3 Sugar No one thinks this is going to be close. Sagarin gives a slight edge to the Horns ATS. DUSHEE thinks UGa wins by three scores, but DUSHEE has been lower on Texas than the general consensus all year. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Georgia 11-2 26.02 33.68 92.68 22.64 7.27 Texas 9-4 6.74 9.12 81.67 9.83 3.18 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia 19.28 Georgia 24.56 Georgia 21.92 Georgia 12.5 Georgia 11.01 Georgia 12.8 Cotton Neither of the Semi-Finals look to be competitive. Clemson is a heavy favorite in this matchup. DUSHEE likes the Tigers by nearly 20, Vegas by 10.5. Only the SRS likes the Fightin' Rudys ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Clemson 13-0 34.21 37.26 100.01 23.61 0.94 Notre Dame 12-0 17.01 18.18 87.59 19.06 0.30 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Clemson 17.20 Clemson 19.08 Clemson 18.14 Clemson 10.5 Clemson 12.42 Clemson 4.6 Orange The models are even more unanimous (is that a possible thing, logically?) about the other Semi-Final, although not ATS, where Sagarin and SRS like the Sooners. For some reason, my gut tells me that the Sooners are going to be better here than all the numbers suggest, but the numbers are clear. Roll Tide. Blech. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Alabama 13-0 36.99 42.89 102.68 27.18 5.16 Oklahoma 12-1 20.67 23.30 90.16 17.96 2.94 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama 16.32 Alabama 19.59 Alabama 17.96 Alabama 14 Alabama 12.52 Alabama 9.2 Other Bowls of Regional Interest New Mexico The Fightin' Greene Eagles of Denton face off against the former team of technological's new coach, Utah State. The Aggies are the unanimous favorite but all the computer models like the Mean Green ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS North Texas 9-3 7.03 1.62 66.89 1.68 -8.86 Utah St. 10-2 13.44 10.15 77.65 8.52 -6.54 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah St. 6.41 Utah St. 8.53 Utah St. 7.47 Utah St. 11 Utah St. 10.76 Utah St. 6.8 Frisco The Bowl of Generic Suburban Dallas pits THE Ohio University against the Fightin' Montezuma's of Far Southern California. Ohio is the unanimous favorite SU and the unanimous choice ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio 8-4 12.07 8.04 70.85 4.00 -5.87 San Diego St. 7-5 -0.89 -2.31 65.31 -1.59 -2.09 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio 12.96 Ohio 10.35 Ohio 11.65 Ohio 3 Ohio 5.54 Ohio 5.6 Armed Forces Played in our Frogs humble home of Amon G. (Patterson) Carter Stadium, the Black Kaniggits of the Hudson have been DUSHEE favorites all year, and true to form, DUSHEE likes the Cadets in this game way more than everybody else. That said, the computers all agree that Army should be the favorite in the game while Vegas likes Cougar High. Note that the Army-Navy game is not included in Army's totals as I am writing this before the game has occurred in the space-time continuum. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Army 9-2 11.11 10.61 72.33 6.63 -1.90 Houston 8-4 1.72 -1.70 71.86 3.50 -5.12 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Army 9.40 Army 12.31 Army 10.85 Houston 3 Army 0.47 Army 3.1 First Responder The Smurf Donkeys rebounded from a very bad loss to Oklahoma State early in the year to have a very nice little season, and for that, they get rewarded with a bowl game in the dilapidated Cotton Bowl against a barely .500 ACC team. A reminder of what life was like as a have-not. As with Army, DUSHEE likes Boise far more than anybody else, but Boise is still the unanimous favorite over the Fightin' Fluties. DUSHEE and SRS like the Broncos ATS; Sagarin says to take BC and the points. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Boston Coll. 7-5 2.29 2.94 77.00 4.92 2.07 Boise St. 10-3 15.27 15.43 78.79 8.61 -1.04 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boise St. 12.98 Boise St. 12.49 Boise St. 12.73 Boise St. 2.5 Boise St. 1.79 Boise St. 3.7 Taxslayer I guess this is a good bowl? Seems like agricultural deserves better. Two of their losses were respectable games against the two inarguably best teams in the country and they had the toughest schedule, per DUSHEE, in all of college football. NC State was a schizophrenic team this year, looking like maybe a legitimate challenger to Clemson early in the season with impressive wins over a good Marshall team and what then appeared to be a good Virginia team. Then not so much toward the end of the season as Clemson, Syracuse, and lowly Wake Forest all beat the Wolfpack. This game has one of the larger differentials in schedule strength, and as expected, DUSHEE Extra Crispy likes the Ags a lot more than Original, the latter being more in line with Sagarin and SRS. Agricultural is a unanimous favorite with only Sagarin picking NC State ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Texas A&M 8-4 15.48 23.30 83.06 12.14 10.12 N.C. State 9-3 12.17 9.14 81.22 7.85 -1.82 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas A&M 3.31 Texas A&M 14.15 Texas A&M 8.73 Texas A&M 3 Texas A&M 1.84 Texas A&M 4.3 Sun The Bowl that should hold a soft spot in the heart of every Frog fan this year pits the Frog's bowl opponent from last year against the 7-6 ACC Coastal Division champion. Pitt's SOS puts them as the favorite per DUSHEE Extra Crispy, but everyone else likes the Trees. All the models say to take Pitt and the points except for Sagarin who is exactly on the Vegas spread. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Pittsburgh 7-6 2.23 7.12 73.61 6.14 6.89 Stanford 8-4 4.45 6.51 82.11 8.05 3.09 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Stanford 2.22 Pittsburgh 0.62 Stanford 0.80 Stanford 8.5 Stanford 8.50 Stanford 1.9 All the Rest Bowl DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Cure LA Lafayette 1.37 LA Lafayette 2.69 LA Lafayette 2.03 Tulane 3.5 Tulane 5.70 LA Lafayette 0.4 Las Vegas Fresno St. 12.29 Fresno St. 12.46 Fresno St. 12.38 Fresno St. 3.5 Fresno St. 5.66 Fresno St. 6.0 Camellia East. Michigan 0.01 East. Michigan 1.17 East. Michigan 0.59 East. Michigan 3.5 East. Michigan 0.02 Georgia Southern 3.3 New Orleans Appalachian State 10.60 Appalachian State 8.89 Appalachian State 9.74 Appalachian State 9 Appalachian State 10.35 Appalachian State 7.2 Boca Raton UAB 7.57 UAB 6.56 UAB 7.06 Northern Illinois 1 Northern Illinois 0.44 UAB 0.0 Gasparilla Marshall 10.57 Marshall 11.76 Marshall 11.16 South Florida 2 Marshall 1.57 Marshall 4.3 Bahamas Toledo 3.57 Toledo 4.90 Toledo 4.24 Toledo 4.5 Toledo 7.75 Toledo 1.8 Idaho Potato BYU 7.18 BYU 9.20 BYU 8.19 BYU 14 BYU 7.88 BYU 4.8 Birmingham Memphis 9.23 Memphis 7.32 Memphis 8.28 Memphis 4.5 Memphis 3.24 Memphis 2.1 Dollar General Buffalo 5.67 Buffalo 7.84 Buffalo 6.75 Buffalo 4 Buffalo 1.21 Buffalo 0.7 Hawaii Louisiana Tech 2.96 Louisiana Tech 2.85 Louisiana Tech 2.90 Hawaii 2.5 Louisiana Tech 2.97 Hawaii 4.5 Quick Lane Georgia Tech 2.11 Georgia Tech 0.02 Georgia Tech 1.07 Georgia Tech 3.5 Georgia Tech 3.13 Georgia Tech 1.1 Independence Temple 14.48 Temple 9.76 Temple 12.12 Temple 5 Temple 1.94 Duke 0.0 Pinstripe Miami (FL) 1.61 Miami (FL) 1.27 Miami (FL) 1.44 Miami (FL) 2.5 Miami (FL) 1.87 Miami (FL) 2.6 Music City Auburn 1.03 Auburn 3.03 Auburn 2.03 Auburn 3.5 Auburn 4.48 Auburn 0.5 Belk South Carolina 3.49 South Carolina 9.77 South Carolina 6.63 South Carolina 3.5 South Carolina 5.83 South Carolina 4.1 Arizona Arkansas St. 4.27 Arkansas St. 3.16 Arkansas St. 3.71 Arkansas St. 0 Arkansas St. 0.31 Arkansas St. 3.9 Military Cincinnati 20.56 Cincinnati 19.39 Cincinnati 19.98 Cincinnati 7.5 Cincinnati 5.28 Cincinnati 8.2 Redbox Michigan St. 2.51 Michigan St. 6.08 Michigan St. 4.29 Oregon 1.5 Michigan St. 0.50 Michigan St. 0.5 Holiday Utah 11.31 Utah 12.50 Utah 11.91 Utah 8.5 Utah 7.35 Utah 4.7 Outback Mississippi St. 5.60 Mississippi St. 10.34 Mississippi St. 7.97 Mississippi St. 4 Mississippi St. 1.35 Mississippi St. 0.9 Citrus Penn St. 7.88 Penn St. 5.90 Penn St. 6.89 Penn St. 7 Penn St. 7.46 Penn St. 1.1
  7. 1 point
    Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points). It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia. Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team. The biggest mover in the top 25 was the Bearkats of Cincinnati, jumping 8 spots and almost 4 points after destroying East Carolina. The larger overall upward mover was Middle Tennessee who pounded what had been a borderline top-25 team, UAB, by 24 points and over 300 yards. The biggest mover in the wrong direction was easily Duke, who fell 23 spots and over 5.5 points after inexplicably getting blown out by what had been by all counts a really bad Wake Forest team 59-7. Frogs Week-to-Week The Frogs moved up for the second week in a row, 4 spots and 1.4 points to #66. Just behind the Frogs is B1G West champion Northwestern and only 9 spots ahead is ACC CCG qualifier Pitt (I'm too lazy to look up what the division is called). Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex | ISU Ttech OU | @ Kan KSU @ WVU | @ Bay OkSt PD: 23.60 6.00 -9.27 | 8.20 -3.50 -8.18 | -8.20 -2.70 -25.78 | 1.40 10.80 YD: 78.40 143.55 29.82 | 140.60 26.10 -133.73 | 141.40 -90.40 -244.67 | 24.50 185.60 Score: 19.53 10.96 -4.74 | 12.28 -1.07 -11.94 | 1.39 -6.18 -29.05 | 2.12 16.20 The Frogs' performance against Okie St was their 2nd best of the season based on DUSHEE score, behind only the SMU game, and was the first time the Frogs looked like a significantly above-average team since the Iowa State game in Week 6. Wince we don't know the Frogs' next opponent yet, let's move on to ... Conference Championship Games Below is a look at all the conference championship games this weekend. DUSHEE only thinks 3 are likely to be competitive: the CUSA game between UAB and MTSU is a true toss-up (after giving MTSU the home field advantage (HFA) ... UAB would be favored on a neutral field), the Pac-12 with Utah as a slight favorite, and the MWC where a Boise HFA turns that game from a toss-up to a Boise 3-point advantage. DUSHEE gives Georgia, Texas, Northwestern, and Memphis all somewhere around a 1-in-4 to 1-in-5 chance. Pitt is given less than a 10% chance of beating Clemson. CCG Location Team 1 Rec DUSHEE O Team 2 Rec DUSHEE O DO Fav (Vegas) DDO + HFA Team 1 Chance SEC Atlanta, GA Georgia 11-1 25.11 Alabama 12-0 38.29 Alabama (-10.5) -13.18 27% ACC Charlotte, NC Pittsburgh 7-5 2.29 Clemson 12-0 33.95 Clemson (-23.5) -31.66 9% BXII-II Arlington, TX Texas 9-3 6.85 Oklahoma 11-1 21.04 Oklahoma (-5.5) -14.19 20% P12 Santa Clara, CA Washington 9-3 11.48 Utah 9-3 12.73 Utah (+3) -1.25 47% B1G Indianapolis, IN Northwestern 8-4 0.81 Ohio St. 11-1 18.80 Ohio St. (-13) -17.99 24% AAC Orlando, FL Memphis 8-4 5.57 UCF 11-0 18.50 UCF (-7) -12.93 -16.45 24% CUSA Murfreesboro, TN UAB 9-3 6.73 Middle Tenn. St. 8-4 3.21 UAB (+2.5) -3.52 -0.01 50% MAC Detroit, MI Northern Illinois 7-5 -2.36 Buffalo 10-2 7.04 Buffalo (-4) -9.39 33% MWC Boise, ID Fresno St. 10-2 15.49 Boise St. 10-2 15.14 Fresno St. (+1.5) -0.35 +3.16 44% SBC Boone, NC LA Lafayette 7-5 -3.56 Appalachian State 9-2 15.29 Appalachian State (-17.5) -18.85 -22.37 13% In general, DUSHEE is higher on most of the favorites than Vegas is. This is particularly true for Oklahoma, where Vegas likes the Sooners by 5.5 and DUSHEE likes them by 14, and UCF, where Vegas likes the Knights by a TD and DUSHEE likes them (with home field) by 16.5. Vegas favors MTSU in the DUSHEE toss-up CUSA game by 2.5 and favors Washington by 3 when DUSHEE favors the Utes by a point to point-and-a-half. Only two of the CCGs feature the top two teams in each conference based on their DUSHEE ranking ... the SEC and the MWC. So, per DUSHEE's assessment, eight out of 10 CCGs are pitting inferior matchups for their respective "championships." Conference: DUSHEE Rank (Rank in Conference) SEC: 1 Alabama (1) vs. 3 Georgia (2) ACC: 2 Clemson (1) vs 57 Pitt (6) ... 29 Miami is the 2nd ranked ACC team and would only be a 26-point dog to Clemson BXII-II: 5 Oklahoma (1) vs 35 Texas (3) ... 17 West Virginia ranks second and would only be a 6-point dog to OU P12: 22 Utah (2) vs 25 Washington (3) ... 20 Washington State ranked 1st, only 2 points separate these 3 teams B1G: 7 Ohio St. (2) vs. 67 Northwestern (11) ... 4 Michigan was the top ranked team; 19 Iowa was the top ranked team in the West AAC: 8 UCF (1) vs. 41 Memphis (4) ... 16 Cincinnati was the 2nd ranked team in the conference, Memphis was the top ranked team in the West Division CUSA: 37 UAB (2) vs 50 MTSU (5) ... 33 North Texas was the top ranked team, 44 Marshall was the top ranked team in the East Division MAC: 34 Buffalo (2) vs 79 NIU (5) ... 23 Ohio was the top ranked team, 61 Toledo was the top ranked team in the West Division MWC: 13 Fresno (1) vs 15 Boise (2) SBC: 14 App St. (1) vs. 87 ULaLa (5) ... 53 Arkansas State was the 2nd ranked team and the top ranked team in the side of the bracket ULaLa was on Conference Ratings Unfortunately, this season, the SEC really was far and away the best conference in college football. As we have discussed before, there are many ways to judge the "best" conference and pretty much any way you look at it ... SEC. Top of the conference? They have 6 teams in the top 20. The Pac 12 has 1 ... Washington State at #20. The ACC has 1 ... Clemson ... and their second best team, Miami, is 29th. The Big XII-II has 2 teams in the top 20, same as the Mountain West. The B1G has four. Bottom of the conference? The SEC had two clearly below average teams, Arkansas and Tennessee. The ACC had six. The B1G and Big XII-II both had three. The Pac 12 has five. Conference average? The average SEC team is nearly a TD better than the average B1G or BXII-II team and would be a 9-10 point favorite on a neutral field against the average P12 or ACC team. The average ACC team is closer to an average Sun Belt team than an average SEC team. SEC 10.77 B10 4.32 B12 4.15 P12 1.77 ACC 0.82 AAC -2.15 MWC -2.51 MAC -5.51 CUSA -5.62 SBC -6.19 Yet another reason why this season has sucked. Performances of the Week Top 3 48.30 Ohio St. vs. Michigan (23 MOV, 166 YM) 47.40 Cincinnati vs. ECU (50 MOV, 338 YM) 45.64 Middle Tennessee St. vs. UAB (24 MOV, 305 YM) Bottom 3 -56.59 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) -42.17 Louisville vs. Kentucky (-46 MOV, -292 YM) -39.58 Central Michigan at Toledo (-38 MOV, -292 YM) Overall Rankings Week 13 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 37.01 280.91 38.29 0 -0.72 2 Clemson 32.88 248.04 33.95 0 -2.08 3 Georgia 25.14 172.21 25.11 1 1.40 4 Michigan 22.12 200.75 24.48 -1 -2.82 5 Oklahoma 19.91 160.35 21.04 0 -0.43 6 Mississippi St. 18.35 150.92 19.55 0 1.18 7 Ohio St. 17.12 152.37 18.80 4 2.91 8 UCF 20.66 97.49 18.50 1 1.18 9 Notre Dame 17.43 116.20 17.25 -2 -0.89 10 Missouri 17.25 117.16 17.18 3 1.46 11 Penn St. 17.13 99.04 16.22 6 1.64 12 Texas A&M 12.95 146.44 15.73 -4 -1.71 13 Fresno St. 16.93 86.80 15.49 -3 -0.79 14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 4 1.15 15 Boise St. 15.13 104.23 15.14 4 1.02 16 Cincinnati 14.01 119.62 15.14 8 3.79 17 West Virginia 15.23 101.18 15.06 -1 0.29 18 LSU 14.68 93.08 14.30 -4 -1.14 19 Iowa 14.51 84.01 13.75 -4 -1.46 20 Washington St. 12.86 106.15 13.72 -8 -2.10 21 Utah St. 16.63 50.92 13.55 -1 -0.21 22 Utah 12.96 84.43 12.73 -1 -0.90 23 Ohio 12.27 84.20 12.26 -1 -0.20 24 Temple 12.35 75.14 11.88 -1 -0.56 25 Washington 10.65 90.43 11.48 4 2.38 26 Army 12.21 65.97 11.34 -1 0.06 27 Florida 10.68 71.15 10.57 6 1.99 28 Auburn 10.25 35.12 8.53 2 -0.50 29 Miami (FL) 7.46 68.89 8.32 7 0.22 30 N.C. State 8.43 49.70 8.03 -3 -1.81 31 Kentucky 9.31 36.37 7.97 9 1.82 32 Purdue 7.56 44.00 7.18 3 -1.02 33 North Texas 6.06 64.41 7.16 -5 -2.29 34 Buffalo 6.52 55.45 7.04 10 2.10 35 Texas 8.10 29.96 6.85 -1 -1.48 36 Wisconsin 5.20 68.22 6.77 -4 -2.12 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 -11 -3.37 38 Michigan St. 5.47 52.92 6.21 -7 -2.79 39 Syracuse 7.11 21.88 5.80 7 1.76 40 Iowa St. 7.24 18.77 5.74 -2 -1.10 41 Memphis 5.10 44.74 5.57 19 3.15 42 South Carolina 6.24 24.65 5.36 8 1.70 43 Oklahoma St. 4.82 40.35 5.17 -6 -2.11 44 Marshall 5.18 27.66 4.80 8 1.16 45 Stanford 7.29 -4.72 4.63 -6 -1.96 46 Florida Atlantic 1.28 77.64 4.62 -3 -0.51 47 BYU 3.16 45.29 4.30 -2 0.23 48 Oregon 4.52 15.51 3.77 6 0.44 49 Georgia Tech 2.87 29.99 3.37 -7 -2.19 50 Middle Tenn. St. 4.04 10.67 3.21 28 4.94 51 Vanderbilt 5.76 -14.31 3.15 12 1.97 52 Arizona St. 3.68 13.72 3.12 1 -0.52 53 Arkansas St. 1.44 40.64 2.93 11 1.79 54 Texas Tech 2.58 18.21 2.60 -13 -3.12 55 Houston 4.07 -5.45 2.45 -8 -1.53 56 Nebraska -0.18 51.33 2.37 5 0.41 57 Pittsburgh 3.14 4.06 2.29 -6 -1.35 58 Miami (OH) 2.60 8.77 2.16 9 1.64 59 Air Force 0.65 31.81 1.97 -1 -0.58 60 Southern Miss -1.06 52.88 1.86 6 1.26 61 Toledo 4.02 -17.45 1.83 13 2.82 62 Boston Coll. 3.57 -15.91 1.61 -6 -1.35 63 Virginia 1.83 7.89 1.60 -15 -2.27 64 Minnesota 1.94 -0.24 1.28 8 2.04 65 Maryland 2.11 -3.14 1.26 -16 -2.44 66 TCU -0.69 27.38 0.86 4 1.39 67 Northwestern 2.79 -21.58 0.81 -12 -2.46 68 Troy 1.35 -6.84 0.57 3 1.14 69 Arizona -3.67 58.69 0.40 -1 0.48 70 East. Michigan 0.39 -1.29 0.20 -8 -1.23 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 -2 0.58 72 Mississippi -3.38 48.55 0.10 -15 -2.70 73 Wyoming -0.77 6.22 -0.21 6 1.91 74 USC -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 2 0.79 75 San Diego St. -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 -10 -1.29 76 Nevada -2.99 10.84 -1.47 -3 -0.56 77 Florida Intl. 0.15 -38.12 -1.75 8 2.17 78 California -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 2 0.28 79 Northern Illinois -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 -4 -1.32 80 UCLA -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 4 0.64 81 Indiana -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 1 -0.13 82 Duke -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 -23 -5.57 83 W. Michigan -7.04 31.35 -3.17 5 1.01 84 Tulane -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 -3 -0.85 85 Baylor -5.34 4.58 -3.34 5 1.23 86 Colorado -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 -3 -0.48 87 LA Lafayette -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 4 1.05 88 Kansas St. -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 -1 0.14 89 Tennessee -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 -12 -2.59 90 Wake Forest -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 10 4.45 91 Louisiana Tech -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 -2 -0.57 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 2 0.30 93 South Florida -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 0 -0.59 94 East Carolina -11.77 15.08 -7.12 -8 -3.11 95 Florida St. -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 -3 -1.61 96 SMU -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 -1 -0.43 97 Hawaii -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 7 1.93 98 Virginia Tech -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 -1 0.41 99 North Carolina -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 -3 0.23 100 Kansas -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 -1 0.50 101 Navy -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 0 0.74 102 LA Monroe -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 0 0.19 103 Ball St. -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 0 -0.50 104 Arkansas -12.59 -49.10 -10.77 -6 -1.99 105 Tulsa -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 1 0.61 106 Colorado St. -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 3 0.96 107 West. Kentucky -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 3 1.39 108 UNLV -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 4 1.33 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 -4 -2.05 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 -3 -1.39 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 0 0.00 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 -4 -1.22 113 Akron -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 3 1.69 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 1 -0.21 115 Rutgers -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 3 0.94 116 New Mexico -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 -3 -2.09 117 Illinois -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 5 1.35 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 1 0.69 119 Cent. Michigan -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 -5 -1.53 120 Bowling Green -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 -3 -0.47 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 3 1.81 122 Kent St. -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 4 2.48 123 Oregon St. -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 -3 -1.31 124 UTEP -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 -1 -0.22 125 San Jose St. -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 0 1.78 126 Louisville -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 -5 -2.14 127 Rice -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 0 1.79 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 1 2.61 129 New Mexico St. -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 -1 1.56 130 Connecticut -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 0 -0.30 By Conference AAC 8 UCF 20.66 97.49 18.50 16 Cincinnati 14.01 119.62 15.14 24 Temple 12.35 75.14 11.88 41 Memphis 5.10 44.74 5.57 55 Houston 4.07 -5.45 2.45 84 Tulane -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 93 South Florida -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 94 East Carolina -11.77 15.08 -7.12 96 SMU -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 101 Navy -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 105 Tulsa -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 130 Connecticut -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 ACC 2 Clemson 32.88 248.04 33.95 29 Miami (FL) 7.46 68.89 8.32 30 N.C. State 8.43 49.70 8.03 39 Syracuse 7.11 21.88 5.80 49 Georgia Tech 2.87 29.99 3.37 57 Pittsburgh 3.14 4.06 2.29 62 Boston Coll. 3.57 -15.91 1.61 63 Virginia 1.83 7.89 1.60 82 Duke -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 90 Wake Forest -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 95 Florida St. -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 98 Virginia Tech -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 99 North Carolina -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 126 Louisville -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 B1G 4 Michigan 22.12 200.75 24.48 7 Ohio St. 17.12 152.37 18.80 11 Penn St. 17.13 99.04 16.22 19 Iowa 14.51 84.01 13.75 32 Purdue 7.56 44.00 7.18 36 Wisconsin 5.20 68.22 6.77 38 Michigan St. 5.47 52.92 6.21 56 Nebraska -0.18 51.33 2.37 64 Minnesota 1.94 -0.24 1.28 65 Maryland 2.11 -3.14 1.26 67 Northwestern 2.79 -21.58 0.81 81 Indiana -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 115 Rutgers -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 117 Illinois -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.91 160.35 21.04 17 West Virginia 15.23 101.18 15.06 35 Texas 8.10 29.96 6.85 40 Iowa St. 7.24 18.77 5.74 43 Oklahoma St. 4.82 40.35 5.17 54 Texas Tech 2.58 18.21 2.60 66 TCU -0.69 27.38 0.86 85 Baylor -5.34 4.58 -3.34 88 Kansas St. -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 100 Kansas -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 CUSA 33 North Texas 6.06 64.41 7.16 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 44 Marshall 5.18 27.66 4.80 46 Florida Atlantic 1.28 77.64 4.62 50 Middle Tenn. St. 4.04 10.67 3.21 60 Southern Miss -1.06 52.88 1.86 77 Florida Intl. 0.15 -38.12 -1.75 91 Louisiana Tech -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 107 West. Kentucky -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 124 UTEP -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 127 Rice -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 Indies 9 Notre Dame 17.43 116.20 17.25 26 Army 12.21 65.97 11.34 47 BYU 3.16 45.29 4.30 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 129 New Mexico St. -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 MAC 23 Ohio 12.27 84.20 12.26 34 Buffalo 6.52 55.45 7.04 58 Miami (OH) 2.60 8.77 2.16 61 Toledo 4.02 -17.45 1.83 70 East. Michigan 0.39 -1.29 0.20 79 Northern Illinois -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 83 W. Michigan -7.04 31.35 -3.17 103 Ball St. -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 113 Akron -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 119 Cent. Michigan -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 120 Bowling Green -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 122 Kent St. -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 MWC 13 Fresno St. 16.93 86.80 15.49 15 Boise St. 15.13 104.23 15.14 21 Utah St. 16.63 50.92 13.55 59 Air Force 0.65 31.81 1.97 73 Wyoming -0.77 6.22 -0.21 75 San Diego St. -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 76 Nevada -2.99 10.84 -1.47 97 Hawaii -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 106 Colorado St. -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 108 UNLV -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 116 New Mexico -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 125 San Jose St. -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 P12 20 Washington St. 12.86 106.15 13.72 22 Utah 12.96 84.43 12.73 25 Washington 10.65 90.43 11.48 45 Stanford 7.29 -4.72 4.63 48 Oregon 4.52 15.51 3.77 52 Arizona St. 3.68 13.72 3.12 69 Arizona -3.67 58.69 0.40 74 USC -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 78 California -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 80 UCLA -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 86 Colorado -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 123 Oregon St. -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 SBC 14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 53 Arkansas St. 1.44 40.64 2.93 68 Troy 1.35 -6.84 0.57 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 87 LA Lafayette -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 102 LA Monroe -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 SEC 1 Alabama 37.01 280.91 38.29 3 Georgia 25.14 172.21 25.11 6 Mississippi St. 18.35 150.92 19.55 10 Missouri 17.25 117.16 17.18 12 Texas A&M 12.95 146.44 15.73 18 LSU 14.68 93.08 14.30 27 Florida 10.68 71.15 10.57 28 Auburn 10.25 35.12 8.53 31 Kentucky 9.31 36.37 7.97 42 South Carolina 6.24 24.65 5.36 51 Vanderbilt 5.76 -14.31 3.15 72 Mississippi -3.38 48.55 0.10 89 Tennessee -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 104 Arkansas -12.59 -49.10 -10.77
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