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  1. 2 points
    It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season. DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done. The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread. And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening lines set back in early December. Here is how the models did: Model SU ATS DUSHEE O 19 - 19 20 - 18 DUSHEE XC 18 - 20 18 - 20 Sagarin 19 - 19 27 - 11 SRS 19 - 19 25 - 13 Vegas 15 - 23 If you bet using Sagarin or SRS, you made out pretty well during bowl season. If you used DUSHEE, well, let me reiterate that gambling is a vice and the author does not promote or encourage sports betting of any kind. Now my high school football coaches, forever wise, once taught me that excuses are like assholes and elbows ... everybody's got them and mine stink. I'm not sure why my elbows smelled so badly, but I can nonetheless offer a few qualitative reasons for why the bowls are hard to pick. One, in the modern era where NFL hopefuls sit out the bowls, it is easy to argue that not all the teams have the same talent level they had when their regular season performance was measured. One can imagine a way of trying to account for this similar to the WAR metric used in baseball, but ain't nobody got time for that. West Virginia and Michigan both took pretty big hits to their personnel so it was quite predictable they would underperform compared to the regular season. Two, is impossible to quantify the motivation teams have going into exhibition games that the CFP has probably made even less relevant than they used to be. I mean, OBVIOUSLY the SEC was totally not into their games against opponents from all those other slummy conferences ... All of that said, Sagarin and SRS also were only accounting for regular season performance and they did quite well picking winners against the spread. But then, DUSHEE did quite well during the regular season. And DUSHEE has done much better in other bowl seasons. So I'm going to dismiss this bowl season as a fluke. Dealers' prerogative ... Best and Worst Bowl Performances Top 6 59.87 Army vs. Houston 52.38 Texas A&M vs. NC State 52.37 Auburn vs. Purdue 51.88 Clemson vs. Alabama 51.38 Utah State vs. N. Texas 49.09 Clemson vs. Notre Dame I posted the top 6 just to show how friggin' impressive Clemson was in the two playoff games, averaging 50 point better than an average team against, supposedly, two of the four best teams in the country. Bottom 3 -46.27 Purdue vs. Auburn -43.17 Houston vs. Army -39.03 Temple vs. Duke Conference Ratings The Big XII-II leapt back over the B1G as the second best conference in college football, after what was by all accounts a pretty mediocre year for the conference. Despite the relatively poor bowl showing, the SEC is still well ahead of everybody else. The only reason why the ACC had a positive number was because Clemson was in the conference, otherwise the conference only marginally better than the MWC. And the American ends up behind the Mountain West as the best "Group of 5." Please change your marketing campaign, American Athletic Conference ... SEC 10.19 B12 3.94 B10 3.58 ACC 1.41 P12 0.65 MWC -2.60 AAC -4.87 CUSA -5.98 SBC -6.41 MAC -6.43 Final Overall Ratings Post-Bowl Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 1 2.11 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 -1 -2.44 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 0 -3.11 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 0 -2.84 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 0 0.07 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 0 -0.03 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 0 -1.02 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 4 2.57 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 3.23 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 8 1.91 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 -2 -1.63 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 1 -0.01 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 1 -0.03 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 -3 -0.87 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 -7 -3.38 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 1 0.71 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 -7 -2.44 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 10 4.33 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 -4 -1.68 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 -1 -0.46 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 -5 -1.89 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 1 0.57 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 1 0.43 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 3 1.39 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 -5 -1.84 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 4 3.19 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 -2 -1.84 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 7 2.21 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 -7 -3.45 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 4 1.06 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 0 -0.32 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 4 1.18 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 5 0.63 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 7 0.97 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 -9 -5.33 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 10 1.77 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 0 -0.36 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 -9 -2.51 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 4 0.10 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 -1 -1.08 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 -9 -2.13 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 16 1.63 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 2 -0.88 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 7 0.45 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 -5 -2.41 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 -13 -4.10 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 -5 -2.20 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 -1 -1.03 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 -1 -1.09 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 2 -0.49 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 2 -0.08 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 13 1.40 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 6 0.26 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 -10 -2.38 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 1 -0.26 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 7 0.40 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 3 0.11 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 -1 -0.55 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 -5 -0.78 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 8 1.28 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 23 4.32 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 -12 -2.20 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 -14 -2.32 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 -9 -1.50 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 2 0.26 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 5 0.50 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 -5 -1.16 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 -2 -0.27 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 -5 -0.74 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 0 -0.12 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 -2 -0.81 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 1 -0.22 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 -1 -0.84 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 4 0.55 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 -1 -0.77 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 -1 -1.18 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 0 -0.57 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 -17 -4.15 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 6 1.07 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 -1 -0.49 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 8 1.67 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 5 1.20 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 -7 -1.35 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 -4 -0.65 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 -3 -0.74 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 5 1.63 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 -1 -0.49 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 0 -0.29 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 3 1.41 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 -9 -2.48 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 -1 -0.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 -9 -2.42 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 1 -0.03 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 -1 -1.06 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 4 -0.34 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 4 -0.17 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 0 -0.87 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 -3 -1.68 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 2 0.24 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 -2 -1.18 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 -5 -1.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 0 -0.75 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46 0 -0.40 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 1 -0.80 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 2 0.37 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 -2 -1.66 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 -1 0.13 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 0 -0.21 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 3 0.68 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 -1 -0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 0 -0.51 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 -2 -0.85 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 1 0.06 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 2 0.22 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 -2 -0.35 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 -1 -0.32 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 0 -0.12 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 0 -0.23 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 0 -0.63 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 0 -0.55 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 0 -0.03 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 0 -0.21 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 2 0.05 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 0 -0.31 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 -2 -0.67 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 1 -0.37 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 -1 -0.87 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 0 0.09 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 0 0.52 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 0 -0.90 By Conference AAC 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 ACC 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 B1G 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 CUSA 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 Indies 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 MAC 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 MWC 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 P12 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 SBC 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 SEC 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46
  2. 2 points
    Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season. Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan. The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season. Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves. Same old, same old. I don't think UCF is one of the 4 best teams in the country, but I'd be a hell of a lot more interested in the CFP if they were in the tournament. But luckily for all you TFH subscribers, you have DUSHEE to keep you keen and interested. None of the Top 12 moved in the rankings. The gap tightened between Bama and Clemson, now with less than 3-points separating the top two teams. NC-State fans can shelter from their Snowmageddon warmed by the solace that they rose the most in the rankings this week, riding their 55-point blowout of East Carolina to an 8-spot and over 4-point rise in DUSHEE to get back into the top 25. ECU, conversely, experienced the largest drop, falling 10 spots and 4.5 points. UConn sealed the bottom spot, almost 10 points worse than New Mexico State. To give you a sense of how bad UConn was this year, their TOP rated DUSHEE performance all season was in Week 1 in a 39-point loss to UCF. They earned a -16.15 DUSHEE score for that performance. And that was as good as they did all year. TCU's week-to-week hasn't really changed much since I posted their numbers in the Week 13 blog post (Ohio State went up a little, UT and OU went down a little), and Cal's numbers are in the Bowl Preview. So we'll jump to the Best and Worst Performers. It is a pretty rare circumstance for the loser of a game to wind up in the top performers for the week, but Georgia did that in earning a 34.15 DUSHEE score while losing to Alabama by a TD. It is not all that uncommon for a losing team to get a better score than a winning team; generally happening when a bad team keeps a game close against a good team. I know this is a hard concept for many to wrap their brains around when in the traditional AP poll mindset ... the team that loses must drop! But the goal of DUSHEE is to measure the relative strength of the teams, so if a good team goes into a game, say, 13 points better than another team, but only beats them by 7, that is an indication that the gap between those two teams isn't as large as was originally thought. And that is what happened in the Georgia-Alabama game. Georgia went in as a 13-point underdog (per DUSHEE) against the best team in the country. They lost to that team by 7 and outgained them by almost 60. And that is the big flaw in the AP poll. When two teams who are close to each other in the rankings play a close game, there is no reason to change their rankings relative to each other. That is an indication that you had them ranked correctly to begin with. There is no need to punish the loser by dropping them in the rankings. Statistically, the teams were about even. So despite losing, Georgia crept closer to Alabama, closing their gap with the Tide by a little more than 2 points. Championship Week Top 3 Performers 55.96 -- NC State vs. ECU (55 MOV, 544 YM) 34.15 -- Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 MOV, 59 YM) 29.99 -- Clemson vs. Pitt (32 MOV, 229 YM) Championship Week Bottom 3 Performers -54.55 ECU at NCSU (-55 MOV, -544 YM) -24.20 Akron at South Carolina (-25 MOV, -134 YM) -20.51 Marshall at VaTech (-21 MOV, 16 YM) And since we are in year-end mode, let's track down the top and bottom 10 performances for the whole year. 2018 Season Top 10 63.66 - Clemson at Wake (60 MOV, 449 YM) (Week 6) 55.96 - NC State vs. E. Carolina (55 MOV, 544 YM) (Week 14) 53.97 - Ohio vs. Buffalo (35 MOV, 364 YM) (Week 12) 53.84 - Oklahoma vs. Fla. Atlantic (49 MOV, 326 YM) (Week 1) 53.38 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St. (50 MOV, 208 YM) (Week 2) 52.38 - Alabama at Mississippi (55 MOV, 269 YM) (Week 3) 51.54 - Michigan vs. Penn St. (35 MOV, 219 YM) (Week 10) 51.43 - Mississippi vs. La-Monroe (49 MOV, 399 YM) (Week 6) 51.42 - Alabama vs. Missouri (29 MOV, 352 YM) (Week 7) 50.54 - Clemson vs. Ga. Southern (31 MOV, 455 YM) (Week 3) 2018 Season Bottom 10 -62.98 UNLV vs. New Mexico (-36 MOV, -336 YM) (Week 6) -59.78 La-Monroe at Mississippi (-49 MOV, -399 YM) (Week 6) -58.71 UConn at E. Carolina (-34 MOV, -383 YM) (Week 12) -57.87 UConn at Boise St. (-55 MOV, -629 YM) (Week 2) -57.81 Liberty at Auburn (-53 MOV, -397 YM) (Week 12) -57.46 Old Dominion at Liberty (-42 MOV, -290) (Week 1) -56.58 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) (Week 13) -54.55 E. Carolina at NC State (-55 MOV, -544 YM) (Week 14) -53.82 Texas St. at Rutgers (-28 MOV, -247 YM) (Week 1) -52.84 Rutgers at Kansas (-41 MOV, -270 YM) (Week 3) Overall Ratings Regular Season Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 36.16 265.88 36.99 0 -1.30 2 Clemson 33.17 249.73 34.21 0 0.26 3 Georgia 25.54 185.56 26.02 0 0.91 4 Michigan 21.99 199.80 24.34 0 -0.14 5 Oklahoma 19.62 155.95 20.64 0 -0.41 6 Mississippi St. 18.01 148.26 19.19 0 -0.36 7 Ohio St. 17.57 153.04 19.13 0 0.33 8 UCF 20.28 98.78 18.30 0 -0.20 9 Notre Dame 17.32 113.45 17.04 0 -0.21 10 Missouri 16.75 113.10 16.65 0 -0.53 11 Penn St. 16.80 96.26 15.87 0 -0.35 12 Texas A&M 12.83 143.03 15.48 0 -0.25 13 Boise St. 15.06 108.02 15.27 2 0.13 14 Fresno St. 16.86 83.18 15.27 -1 -0.22 15 West Virginia 15.01 99.66 14.84 2 -0.22 16 Cincinnati 13.53 114.34 14.56 0 -0.58 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 -3 -1.10 18 LSU 14.17 89.52 13.78 0 -0.51 19 Iowa 14.34 83.19 13.59 0 -0.16 20 Washington St. 12.64 105.29 13.53 0 -0.19 21 Utah St. 16.49 50.55 13.44 0 -0.11 22 N.C. State 11.35 95.12 12.17 8 4.15 23 Ohio 12.04 83.43 12.07 0 -0.20 24 Washington 10.97 96.78 12.00 1 0.52 25 Utah 12.05 75.17 11.68 -3 -1.06 26 Temple 11.81 69.03 11.22 -2 -0.66 27 Florida 10.67 71.65 10.59 0 0.01 28 Army 10.30 54.54 9.51 -2 -1.83 29 Miami (FL) 7.45 67.37 8.23 0 -0.09 30 Auburn 9.75 31.94 8.05 -2 -0.49 31 Kentucky 9.24 37.67 7.99 0 0.02 32 North Texas 5.99 62.68 7.03 1 -0.13 33 Purdue 7.40 43.03 7.02 -1 -0.16 34 Texas 7.86 31.00 6.74 1 -0.12 35 Wisconsin 5.05 67.14 6.62 1 -0.16 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 1 -0.63 37 Michigan St. 5.34 52.01 6.08 1 -0.13 38 Syracuse 7.26 24.38 6.02 1 0.22 39 Buffalo 5.67 45.55 5.98 -5 -1.05 40 South Carolina 6.74 21.90 5.55 2 0.20 41 Iowa St. 6.93 17.59 5.47 -1 -0.27 42 Memphis 4.87 35.71 4.98 -1 -0.59 43 Oklahoma St. 4.46 38.56 4.84 0 -0.33 44 Stanford 7.44 -10.58 4.45 1 -0.18 45 Florida Atlantic 0.92 77.85 4.38 1 -0.24 46 BYU 2.80 44.73 4.04 1 -0.27 47 Middle Tenn. St. 3.78 22.12 3.59 3 0.38 48 Oregon 4.30 14.64 3.58 0 -0.19 49 Vanderbilt 5.72 -12.73 3.20 2 0.05 50 Georgia Tech 2.66 27.52 3.10 -1 -0.26 51 Marshall 2.50 27.90 3.02 -7 -1.78 52 Arizona St. 3.57 12.37 2.98 0 -0.14 53 Arkansas St. 1.11 37.01 2.53 0 -0.40 54 Texas Tech 2.39 16.94 2.41 0 -0.19 55 Boston Coll. 4.24 -11.06 2.29 7 0.69 56 Pittsburgh 2.95 5.45 2.23 1 -0.06 57 Nebraska -0.34 50.34 2.21 -1 -0.15 58 Virginia 2.29 11.10 2.07 5 0.46 59 Air Force 0.49 31.57 1.86 0 -0.12 60 Miami (OH) 2.12 8.06 1.80 -2 -0.35 61 Houston 3.50 -11.79 1.76 -6 -0.69 62 Toledo 3.85 -19.18 1.64 -1 -0.20 63 Southern Miss -1.42 51.01 1.53 -3 -0.33 64 Maryland 1.99 -3.64 1.15 1 -0.11 65 Minnesota 1.67 -2.49 0.99 -1 -0.29 66 TCU -0.84 26.43 0.72 0 -0.15 67 Northwestern 2.21 -22.92 0.36 0 -0.45 68 Troy 1.09 -8.41 0.32 0 -0.25 69 Arizona -3.90 57.62 0.19 0 -0.20 70 Mississippi -3.37 47.31 0.05 2 -0.05 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 0 -0.12 72 East. Michigan 0.15 -1.70 0.02 -2 -0.18 73 Wyoming -1.03 4.54 -0.47 0 -0.25 74 USC -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 0 -0.25 75 San Diego St. -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 0 -0.23 76 Northern Illinois -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 3 0.89 77 Nevada -3.26 9.03 -1.73 -1 -0.27 78 Florida Intl. -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 -1 -0.18 79 California -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 -1 -0.18 80 Indiana -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 1 0.03 81 LA Lafayette -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 6 0.87 82 UCLA -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 -2 -0.33 83 W. Michigan -7.03 31.77 -3.15 0 0.03 84 Duke -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 -2 -0.27 85 Baylor -5.51 3.40 -3.51 0 -0.17 86 Colorado -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 0 -0.18 87 Tulane -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 -3 -0.78 88 Kansas St. -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 0 -0.16 89 Wake Forest -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 1 0.28 90 Tennessee -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 -1 -0.24 91 Louisiana Tech -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 0 -0.10 92 Virginia Tech -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 6 2.35 93 Florida St. -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 2 0.74 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 -2 -0.36 95 South Florida -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 -2 -0.53 96 SMU -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 0 -0.20 97 Hawaii -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 0 -0.12 98 Navy -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 3 0.68 99 North Carolina -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 0 -0.09 100 Kansas -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 0 -0.18 101 LA Monroe -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 1 -0.02 102 Ball St. -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 1 0.04 103 Arkansas -12.82 -51.70 -11.05 1 -0.28 104 East Carolina -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 -10 -4.58 105 Tulsa -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 0 -0.28 106 Colorado St. -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 0 -0.10 107 West. Kentucky -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 0 -0.16 108 UNLV -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 0 -0.13 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 0 0.00 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 1 0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 -1 -0.45 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 0 -0.01 113 Akron -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 0 -0.90 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 0 -0.17 115 Rutgers -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 0 -0.18 116 New Mexico -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 0 -0.24 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 1 -0.09 118 Illinois -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 -1 -0.17 119 Cent. Michigan -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 0 -0.13 120 Bowling Green -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 0 -0.17 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 0 -0.32 122 Kent St. -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 0 -0.14 123 Oregon St. -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 0 0.14 124 UTEP -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 0 -0.07 125 San Jose St. -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 0 -0.13 126 Louisville -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 0 0.27 127 Rice -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 0 -0.07 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 0 -0.20 129 New Mexico St. -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 0 0.01 130 Connecticut -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 0 -0.74 By Conference AAC 8 UCF 20.28 98.78 18.30 16 Cincinnati 13.53 114.34 14.56 26 Temple 11.81 69.03 11.22 42 Memphis 4.87 35.71 4.98 61 Houston 3.50 -11.79 1.76 87 Tulane -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 95 South Florida -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 96 SMU -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 98 Navy -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 104 East Carolina -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 105 Tulsa -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 130 Connecticut -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 ACC 2 Clemson 33.17 249.73 34.21 22 N.C. State 11.35 95.12 12.17 29 Miami (FL) 7.45 67.37 8.23 38 Syracuse 7.26 24.38 6.02 50 Georgia Tech 2.66 27.52 3.10 55 Boston Coll. 4.24 -11.06 2.29 56 Pittsburgh 2.95 5.45 2.23 58 Virginia 2.29 11.10 2.07 84 Duke -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 89 Wake Forest -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 92 Virginia Tech -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 93 Florida St. -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 99 North Carolina -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 126 Louisville -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 B1G 4 Michigan 21.99 199.80 24.34 7 Ohio St. 17.57 153.04 19.13 11 Penn St. 16.80 96.26 15.87 19 Iowa 14.34 83.19 13.59 33 Purdue 7.40 43.03 7.02 35 Wisconsin 5.05 67.14 6.62 37 Michigan St. 5.34 52.01 6.08 57 Nebraska -0.34 50.34 2.21 64 Maryland 1.99 -3.64 1.15 65 Minnesota 1.67 -2.49 0.99 67 Northwestern 2.21 -22.92 0.36 80 Indiana -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 115 Rutgers -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 118 Illinois -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.62 155.95 20.64 15 West Virginia 15.01 99.66 14.84 34 Texas 7.86 31.00 6.74 41 Iowa St. 6.93 17.59 5.47 43 Oklahoma St. 4.46 38.56 4.84 54 Texas Tech 2.39 16.94 2.41 66 TCU -0.84 26.43 0.72 85 Baylor -5.51 3.40 -3.51 88 Kansas St. -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 100 Kansas -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 CUSA 32 North Texas 5.99 62.68 7.03 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 45 Florida Atlantic 0.92 77.85 4.38 47 Middle Tenn. St. 3.78 22.12 3.59 51 Marshall 2.50 27.90 3.02 63 Southern Miss -1.42 51.01 1.53 78 Florida Intl. -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 91 Louisiana Tech -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 124 UTEP -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 127 Rice -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 Indies 9 Notre Dame 17.32 113.45 17.04 28 Army 10.30 54.54 9.51 46 BYU 2.80 44.73 4.04 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 129 New Mexico St. -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 MAC 23 Ohio 12.04 83.43 12.07 39 Buffalo 5.67 45.55 5.98 60 Miami (OH) 2.12 8.06 1.80 62 Toledo 3.85 -19.18 1.64 72 East. Michigan 0.15 -1.70 0.02 76 Northern Illinois -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 83 W. Michigan -7.03 31.77 -3.15 102 Ball St. -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 113 Akron -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 119 Cent. Michigan -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 120 Bowling Green -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 122 Kent St. -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 MWC 13 Boise St. 15.06 108.02 15.27 14 Fresno St. 16.86 83.18 15.27 21 Utah St. 16.49 50.55 13.44 59 Air Force 0.49 31.57 1.86 73 Wyoming -1.03 4.54 -0.47 75 San Diego St. -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 77 Nevada -3.26 9.03 -1.73 97 Hawaii -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 106 Colorado St. -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 108 UNLV -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 116 New Mexico -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 125 San Jose St. -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 P12 20 Washington St. 12.64 105.29 13.53 24 Washington 10.97 96.78 12.00 25 Utah 12.05 75.17 11.68 44 Stanford 7.44 -10.58 4.45 48 Oregon 4.30 14.64 3.58 52 Arizona St. 3.57 12.37 2.98 69 Arizona -3.90 57.62 0.19 74 USC -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 79 California -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 82 UCLA -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 86 Colorado -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 123 Oregon St. -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 SBC 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 53 Arkansas St. 1.11 37.01 2.53 68 Troy 1.09 -8.41 0.32 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 81 LA Lafayette -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 101 LA Monroe -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 SEC 1 Alabama 36.16 265.88 36.99 3 Georgia 25.54 185.56 26.02 6 Mississippi St. 18.01 148.26 19.19 10 Missouri 16.75 113.10 16.65 12 Texas A&M 12.83 143.03 15.48 18 LSU 14.17 89.52 13.78 27 Florida 10.67 71.65 10.59 30 Auburn 9.75 31.94 8.05 31 Kentucky 9.24 37.67 7.99 40 South Carolina 6.74 21.90 5.55 49 Vanderbilt 5.72 -12.73 3.20 70 Mississippi -3.37 47.31 0.05 90 Tennessee -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 103 Arkansas -12.82 -51.70 -11.05
  3. 2 points
    As we've discussed in previous weeks, Alabama and Clemson have been set for some time your clear top 2 (Alabama has retaken the top spot as the two continue to jockey in the rankings). This week, Michigan has begun to separate from the pack as a clear #3 and Oklahoma has now created a little bit of space for itself in #4. Were the season to end today, that is your playoff as far as DUSHEE is concerned. The Frogs dropped again, despite the win, three spots to 50th. DUSHEE has the Frogs as a field goal better than an average team, which is to say, pretty average. DUSHEE does not think Kansas State is a very good team, and the fact that we beat them by one and were outgained, means that DUSHEE didn't think that was a performance worthy of a good team. In fact, DUSHEE has the K-State win as the worst performance of the year for the Frogs. TCU had worse Point Differentials against Texas and Kansas, but when adjusted for a season low Yardage Differential, DUSHEE rated the K-State game as almost 11-points below average. TCU Week-to-Week Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex | ISU Ttech OU | @ Kan KSU PD: 21.00 7.25 -10.63 | 9.86 1.00 -4.25 | -7.57 -6.43 YD: 61.00 150.50 29.63 |189.00 53.43 -95.00 | 118.00 -135.57 Score: 16.97 12.16 -5.64 | 15.77 3.27 -7.46 | 0.69 -10.88 Perhaps most concerning is that the Frogs are on a pretty clear downward trajectory as the Frogs' best three performances were in their first four games (excluding Southern) and three of their four worst performances have come in the last three weeks. Put another way, the Frogs averaged a DUSHEE score of 9.81 during the first four games of the season and -3.60 during the second four. Which shouldn't make us feel very good going into next week, when we face ... West Virginia Week-to-Week Opp: N Tenn KSU @ Ttech | Kan @ ISU Bay | @ Tex PD: 18.71 25.57 13.57 | 11.86 -11.86 42.71 | 7.38 YD: 206.29 42.71 53.43 | 147.71 -344.71 304.57 | 89.25 Score: 22.51 19.13 11.65 | 15.09 -24.68 43.29 | 9.26 If you are looking for any kind of solace that the Frogs will have a chance this week in Morgantown, I can only offer two rather minor consolations. First, the Mountaineers have played a softer conference slate than the Frogs so far, having not played OU yet and having beaten up on the dregs (Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor). And for one common opponent, WVU was inexplicably destroyed by Iowa State while we managed to beat the Cyclones before the aforementioned 4-game swoon. If the Frogs and Mountaineers who faced Iowa State show up on Saturday, the Frogs win by 40 points!!! Unfortunately those are not the only two data points we have, and against our other four common opponents, the Fightin' Holgersons have been an average of 17-points better than the Frogs and 14-points better over their last four games. Taking the whole season into account, DUSHEE has the Mountaineers as 14.5-point favorites at Milan Puskar Stadium with a 23% chance of winning. Conference Ratings For the first time this season, the B1G has edged past the BXII-II as the second-best conference in FBS, albeit by a hundredth of a point. Both conferences are well behind the SEC and well ahead of the ever-so mediocre ACC and P12. The American Athletic (AAC) has picked a bad year to market themselves as a "Power" conference as they are now less than a point better than the Mountain West. SEC 10.95 B10 5.77 B12 5.76 ACC 2.65 P12 2.06 AAC -2.72 MWC -3.60 CUSA -6.70 MAC -6.88 SBC -8.15 Week 10 Performances Top 3 50.17 -- Michigan vs. PSU (35 MOV, 219 YM) 48.89 -- Alabama at LSU (29 MOV, 380 YM) 43.60 -- Mississippi St. vs. Louisiana Tech (42 MOV, 294 YM) Bottom 3 -45.17 Minnesota at Illinois (-24 MOV, -208 YM) -44.09 Florida Int'l. vs. Florida Atl. (-35 MOV, -266 YM) -44.39 Georgia So. at Louisiana-Monroe (-19 MOV, -359 YM) Overall Ratings The only thing that changed in the Top 6 is that Alabama and Clemson switched positions at the top. A&M, despite losing, climbed 3 spots to #7, benefitting from larger falls by the B1G trio of Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa. Big movers at the top this week include UCF and UAB who jumped 13 and 16 spots, respectively, into the top 20. Utah, Texas Tech, and Washington all took big tumbles out of the top 25. The biggest overall gainers were Tulane, who jumped 25 spots in the rankings after destroying USF (DUSHEE was pretty prescient about them if you read my blog post from two weeks ago ...), and Louisiana-Monroe whose DUSHEE score rose 7.26 points after a three-score takedown of Georgia Southern. The biggest overall losers this week, both in terms of ranking position and DUSHEE score were the Golden Gophers of Minnesota who lost over 6 points and dropped 26 spots in the rankings after losing by 24 to a truly terrible Illinois team. Week 10 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 36.81 294.81 38.88 1 1.12 2 Clemson 37.07 283.53 38.51 -1 -1.19 3 Michigan 28.23 254.75 31.22 0 1.78 4 Oklahoma 23.25 202.68 25.36 0 -0.15 5 Georgia 23.75 123.80 21.86 0 -0.19 6 LSU 19.98 80.74 17.24 0 -3.89 7 Texas A&M 12.26 179.79 16.92 3 -0.03 8 Missouri 16.72 118.62 16.92 6 1.35 9 Ohio St. 15.25 137.37 16.85 -2 -3.12 10 Penn St. 18.25 83.45 16.23 -1 -1.92 11 North Texas 15.19 123.43 16.13 1 0.15 12 Fresno St. 18.49 76.32 16.04 4 1.13 13 Iowa 15.39 115.48 15.88 -5 -2.69 14 Utah St. 19.48 53.40 15.59 8 2.48 15 Mississippi St. 14.43 113.36 15.13 5 1.63 16 N.C. State 13.95 108.70 14.59 -5 -1.56 17 UCF 17.31 62.29 14.57 13 2.60 18 UAB 13.30 115.30 14.48 16 3.56 19 Notre Dame 13.96 102.47 14.29 -1 -0.04 20 Purdue 13.93 94.85 13.90 5 1.38 21 West Virginia 15.42 71.32 13.75 -4 -0.69 22 Temple 12.62 104.31 13.49 -1 0.01 23 Army 14.03 73.96 12.95 -10 -2.78 24 Michigan St. 12.51 84.32 12.44 11 1.91 25 Iowa St. 12.15 87.95 12.38 -6 -1.62 26 Washington St. 9.71 114.11 12.03 3 0.02 27 Appalachian State 12.38 76.68 11.98 -4 -1.05 28 Utah 11.58 79.32 11.58 -13 -3.47 29 Cincinnati 11.46 78.15 11.44 7 3.58 30 Texas Tech 11.31 78.46 11.36 -6 -1.22 31 Boise St. 10.18 85.98 10.97 0 -0.81 32 Kentucky 11.14 60.48 10.37 0 -1.33 33 Washington 9.81 68.30 9.86 -7 -2.57 34 Wisconsin 7.91 84.57 9.39 -1 -1.54 35 Miami (FL) 7.27 83.00 8.88 -8 -3.25 36 Ohio 9.08 56.22 8.79 15 5.47 37 Texas 9.31 46.96 8.49 2 1.03 38 Florida 9.23 32.21 7.72 -10 -4.38 39 Buffalo 7.27 57.36 7.64 1 0.56 40 Arizona St. 6.84 44.98 6.75 12 3.50 41 Boston Coll. 7.10 35.97 6.48 -4 -1.37 42 Stanford 8.17 11.67 6.02 6 0.74 43 Syracuse 7.47 19.11 5.91 -1 -0.33 44 Auburn 6.93 18.48 5.52 -3 -0.96 45 South Carolina 5.32 29.66 4.99 0 -1.01 46 Georgia Tech 3.33 52.68 4.79 4 0.61 47 Mississippi 1.53 67.92 4.33 2 0.04 48 Oklahoma St. 3.20 36.59 3.92 -2 -1.64 49 Nebraska -0.60 83.67 3.67 6 1.03 50 TCU 1.28 46.37 3.11 -3 -2.37 51 BYU 2.34 31.21 3.08 9 1.97 52 Maryland 3.75 5.45 2.77 -8 -3.30 53 Northwestern 3.98 1.70 2.74 0 -0.18 54 Virginia 2.28 13.20 2.16 -11 -3.92 55 Houston 3.45 -3.84 2.11 -17 -5.51 56 Arizona -1.65 62.26 1.93 7 1.55 57 Duke 5.48 -40.15 1.70 2 0.57 58 San Diego St. -0.14 27.43 1.24 6 1.15 59 Florida Atlantic -1.03 37.10 1.12 22 5.06 60 Oregon 0.98 1.20 0.71 2 0.22 61 Air Force 0.69 4.27 0.67 7 1.82 62 Vanderbilt 4.03 -43.54 0.57 -4 -0.60 63 East. Michigan 0.84 -1.00 0.51 2 0.56 64 USC 0.42 -3.22 0.13 -7 -1.47 65 Tulane 1.24 -14.95 0.10 25 5.65 66 Marshall 0.29 -6.08 -0.10 9 2.24 67 Pittsburgh 1.88 -28.20 -0.12 4 1.32 68 Southern Miss -5.63 72.80 -0.21 2 0.95 69 Colorado -2.00 19.34 -0.39 -8 -1.08 70 Toledo 3.09 -52.35 -0.49 10 3.41 71 Memphis -1.24 -8.62 -1.24 6 1.66 72 Miami (OH) -2.20 0.01 -1.47 1 0.31 73 Tennessee -1.33 -16.85 -1.71 -4 -0.56 74 Georgia Southern 3.95 -92.86 -1.89 -18 -4.05 75 Troy -1.99 -13.35 -1.98 3 1.39 76 UCLA -3.43 -3.64 -2.46 -9 -1.50 77 Wyoming -3.69 -6.33 -2.77 7 1.29 78 Arkansas St. -5.35 15.07 -2.83 4 1.16 79 California -4.17 -4.00 -2.97 7 1.47 80 Minnesota -3.62 -20.25 -3.40 -26 -6.08 81 LA Lafayette -4.33 -12.67 -3.50 4 0.70 82 Virginia Tech -3.70 -33.50 -4.09 6 0.74 83 Louisiana Tech -3.81 -37.09 -4.35 -17 -3.81 84 Baylor -4.43 -28.96 -4.36 -1 -0.31 85 East Carolina -10.70 54.16 -4.50 -13 -2.86 86 Indiana -7.10 2.27 -4.62 -12 -2.37 87 SMU -3.43 -52.34 -4.83 14 5.29 88 Middle Tenn. St. -1.77 -77.99 -4.97 7 1.69 89 Northern Illinois -3.49 -55.71 -5.04 0 0.49 90 Nevada -4.51 -50.66 -5.47 2 0.52 91 Arkansas -8.29 0.96 -5.48 2 0.57 92 Kansas St. -2.83 -81.62 -5.85 -1 0.07 93 W. Michigan -9.20 3.25 -5.98 -6 -1.40 94 Florida St. -7.88 -15.35 -6.00 0 0.12 95 Florida Intl. -5.37 -66.28 -6.80 -19 -4.37 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.97 8.19 -6.91 1 0.52 97 South Florida -8.26 -38.23 -7.36 -1 -0.57 98 Liberty -5.96 -72.11 -7.48 -19 -4.00 99 Wake Forest -8.42 -63.68 -8.71 3 1.52 100 North Carolina -11.95 -18.50 -8.87 -2 0.01 101 Coastal Carolina -8.72 -68.64 -9.15 6 2.74 102 Ball St. -10.80 -67.65 -10.49 -2 -0.85 103 Kansas -8.01 -106.65 -10.53 -4 -1.24 104 Tulsa -10.33 -78.58 -10.71 -1 0.13 105 Hawaii -10.56 -93.51 -11.59 -1 -0.28 106 LA Monroe -13.07 -60.77 -11.67 12 7.26 107 New Mexico -8.88 -128.27 -12.16 -2 -0.69 108 Akron -11.13 -137.32 -14.10 1 -0.28 109 Navy -12.92 -113.38 -14.13 -3 -2.35 110 Colorado St. -17.79 -57.40 -14.65 -2 -1.11 111 Cent. Michigan -15.59 -102.96 -15.40 -1 -1.23 112 Illinois -13.09 -143.88 -15.73 9 4.66 113 Massachusetts -16.17 -107.07 -15.99 4 2.66 114 Georgia State -16.99 -110.79 -16.71 1 1.30 115 West. Kentucky -18.87 -106.12 -17.74 -4 -2.61 116 UNLV -17.12 -132.81 -17.87 3 1.81 117 Louisville -19.47 -104.44 -18.06 -5 -1.34 118 UTEP -17.72 -133.04 -18.29 -4 -0.34 119 Old Dominion -19.25 -116.01 -18.48 -3 0.09 120 Oregon St. -18.88 -121.75 -18.51 -7 -0.86 121 Rutgers -19.45 -156.23 -20.56 3 1.97 122 Kent St. -21.64 -158.31 -22.13 3 1.05 123 South Alabama -22.01 -155.07 -22.22 -3 -1.96 124 Rice -23.24 -152.47 -22.91 -1 -0.95 125 San Jose St. -21.57 -180.96 -23.19 -3 -1.68 126 Texas St. -21.00 -196.60 -23.57 3 2.01 127 Bowling Green -25.81 -147.26 -24.37 0 0.08 128 New Mexico St. -23.84 -179.62 -24.63 0 0.21 129 UT-San Antonio -21.51 -213.96 -24.75 -3 -1.07 130 Connecticut -27.91 -267.25 -31.61 0 -0.24 By Conference AAC 17 UCF 17.31 62.29 14.57 22 Temple 12.62 104.31 13.49 29 Cincinnati 11.46 78.15 11.44 55 Houston 3.45 -3.84 2.11 65 Tulane 1.24 -14.95 0.10 71 Memphis -1.24 -8.62 -1.24 85 East Carolina -10.70 54.16 -4.50 87 SMU -3.43 -52.34 -4.83 97 South Florida -8.26 -38.23 -7.36 104 Tulsa -10.33 -78.58 -10.71 109 Navy -12.92 -113.38 -14.13 130 Connecticut -27.91 -267.25 -31.61 ACC 2 Clemson 37.07 283.53 38.51 16 N.C. State 13.95 108.70 14.59 35 Miami (FL) 7.27 83.00 8.88 41 Boston Coll. 7.10 35.97 6.48 43 Syracuse 7.47 19.11 5.91 46 Georgia Tech 3.33 52.68 4.79 54 Virginia 2.28 13.20 2.16 57 Duke 5.48 -40.15 1.70 67 Pittsburgh 1.88 -28.20 -0.12 82 Virginia Tech -3.70 -33.50 -4.09 94 Florida St. -7.88 -15.35 -6.00 99 Wake Forest -8.42 -63.68 -8.71 100 North Carolina -11.95 -18.50 -8.87 117 Louisville -19.47 -104.44 -18.06 B1G 3 Michigan 28.23 254.75 31.22 9 Ohio St. 15.25 137.37 16.85 10 Penn St. 18.25 83.45 16.23 13 Iowa 15.39 115.48 15.88 20 Purdue 13.93 94.85 13.90 24 Michigan St. 12.51 84.32 12.44 34 Wisconsin 7.91 84.57 9.39 49 Nebraska -0.60 83.67 3.67 52 Maryland 3.75 5.45 2.77 53 Northwestern 3.98 1.70 2.74 80 Minnesota -3.62 -20.25 -3.40 86 Indiana -7.10 2.27 -4.62 112 Illinois -13.09 -143.88 -15.73 121 Rutgers -19.45 -156.23 -20.56 BXII-II 4 Oklahoma 23.25 202.68 25.36 21 West Virginia 15.42 71.32 13.75 25 Iowa St. 12.15 87.95 12.38 30 Texas Tech 11.31 78.46 11.36 37 Texas 9.31 46.96 8.49 48 Oklahoma St. 3.20 36.59 3.92 50 TCU 1.28 46.37 3.11 84 Baylor -4.43 -28.96 -4.36 92 Kansas St. -2.83 -81.62 -5.85 103 Kansas -8.01 -106.65 -10.53 CUSA 11 North Texas 15.19 123.43 16.13 18 UAB 13.30 115.30 14.48 59 Florida Atlantic -1.03 37.10 1.12 66 Marshall 0.29 -6.08 -0.10 68 Southern Miss -5.63 72.80 -0.21 83 Louisiana Tech -3.81 -37.09 -4.35 88 Middle Tenn. St. -1.77 -77.99 -4.97 95 Florida Intl. -5.37 -66.28 -6.80 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.97 8.19 -6.91 115 West. Kentucky -18.87 -106.12 -17.74 118 UTEP -17.72 -133.04 -18.29 119 Old Dominion -19.25 -116.01 -18.48 124 Rice -23.24 -152.47 -22.91 129 UT-San Antonio -21.51 -213.96 -24.75 Indies 19 Notre Dame 13.96 102.47 14.29 23 Army 14.03 73.96 12.95 51 BYU 2.34 31.21 3.08 98 Liberty -5.96 -72.11 -7.48 113 Massachusetts -16.17 -107.07 -15.99 128 New Mexico St. -23.84 -179.62 -24.63 MAC 36 Ohio 9.08 56.22 8.79 39 Buffalo 7.27 57.36 7.64 63 East. Michigan 0.84 -1.00 0.51 70 Toledo 3.09 -52.35 -0.49 72 Miami (OH) -2.20 0.01 -1.47 89 Northern Illinois -3.49 -55.71 -5.04 93 W. Michigan -9.20 3.25 -5.98 102 Ball St. -10.80 -67.65 -10.49 108 Akron -11.13 -137.32 -14.10 111 Cent. Michigan -15.59 -102.96 -15.40 122 Kent St. -21.64 -158.31 -22.13 127 Bowling Green -25.81 -147.26 -24.37 MWC 12 Fresno St. 18.49 76.32 16.04 14 Utah St. 19.48 53.40 15.59 31 Boise St. 10.18 85.98 10.97 58 San Diego St. -0.14 27.43 1.24 61 Air Force 0.69 4.27 0.67 77 Wyoming -3.69 -6.33 -2.77 90 Nevada -4.51 -50.66 -5.47 105 Hawaii -10.56 -93.51 -11.59 107 New Mexico -8.88 -128.27 -12.16 110 Colorado St. -17.79 -57.40 -14.65 116 UNLV -17.12 -132.81 -17.87 125 San Jose St. -21.57 -180.96 -23.19 P12 26 Washington St. 9.71 114.11 12.03 28 Utah 11.58 79.32 11.58 33 Washington 9.81 68.30 9.86 40 Arizona St. 6.84 44.98 6.75 42 Stanford 8.17 11.67 6.02 56 Arizona -1.65 62.26 1.93 60 Oregon 0.98 1.20 0.71 64 USC 0.42 -3.22 0.13 69 Colorado -2.00 19.34 -0.39 76 UCLA -3.43 -3.64 -2.46 79 California -4.17 -4.00 -2.97 120 Oregon St. -18.88 -121.75 -18.51 SBC 27 Appalachian State 12.38 76.68 11.98 74 Georgia Southern 3.95 -92.86 -1.89 75 Troy -1.99 -13.35 -1.98 78 Arkansas St. -5.35 15.07 -2.83 81 LA Lafayette -4.33 -12.67 -3.50 101 Coastal Carolina -8.72 -68.64 -9.15 106 LA Monroe -13.07 -60.77 -11.67 114 Georgia State -16.99 -110.79 -16.71 123 South Alabama -22.01 -155.07 -22.22 126 Texas St. -21.00 -196.60 -23.57 SEC 1 Alabama 36.81 294.81 38.88 5 Georgia 23.75 123.80 21.86 6 LSU 19.98 80.74 17.24 7 Texas A&M 12.26 179.79 16.92 8 Missouri 16.72 118.62 16.92 15 Mississippi St. 14.43 113.36 15.13 32 Kentucky 11.14 60.48 10.37 38 Florida 9.23 32.21 7.72 44 Auburn 6.93 18.48 5.52 45 South Carolina 5.32 29.66 4.99 47 Mississippi 1.53 67.92 4.33 62 Vanderbilt 4.03 -43.54 0.57 73 Tennessee -1.33 -16.85 -1.71 91 Arkansas -8.29 0.96 -5.48
  4. 2 points
    So the critical threshold has been crossed ... every FBS team has played at least two other FBS teams, which allows DUSHEE to calculate a score for each team without dividing by zeros or linearly extrapolating single points and other mathematical impossibilities that it doesn't like to do. To no one's surprise, Alabama is #1 by a mile. But this year's inaugural poll comes with the same caveat that every inaugural DUSHEE poll comes with ... just because there is enough data to calculate scores doesn't mean there is enough data to calculate valid scores. And there is some craziness in this initial ranking that may exceed the craziness seen in any other initial DUSHEE ranking. Baylor, who always seems to be an early season DUSHEE favorite before falling precipitously later in the season, is a top 25 team. North Texas comes in ranked #15. Kentucky is your 6th best team in the country. And if the season ended today, App State is replaying Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. But before we get to that, let's go through some of the changes that have occurred between this season and last in college football. Idaho has left us as an FBS school, but has been replaced by the Fightin' Jerry Falwells, aka the Liberty Flames, as an FBS independent. New Mexico State, like Idaho, has been dropped by the Sun Belt, but remains in FBS as an independent, swelling their ranks to 6. So let's take a look at a few of our initial WTF teams and see why they're where they are. Initial WTF Teams App State App State is ranked 3rd on the basis of two games, their 45-38 loss to Penn State in week 1 and a 45-9 whipping of UNC-Charlotte in week 2. Their week 3 tilt with Southern Miss was cancelled/postponed due to Florence and last week they destroyed FCS Gardner-Webb, which doesn't factor into DUSHEE. As we've discussed in the past, DUSHEE does reward moral victories, and at this point at least, that loss to Penn State looks like a BIG moral victory. App State's MOV (-7) and Yardage Margin (+17) against Penn State is currently being compared to Pitt's numbers against Penn State in Week 2 (-45 MOV and -90 YM), Kent State's in Week 3 (-53 MOV and -446 YM), and Illinois in Week 4 (-39 MOV and -180 YM). So if you crunch the numbers, App State did 38.7 points better than Penn State's average opponent and 238.7 yards better. And this elucidates the problem with too little data. As of this point, Penn State's average opponent is nowhere near an average FBS team; in fact Penn State's strength of schedule is 103rd out of 130 schools if you include 3rd ranked Appalachian State. If you don't include them, App State's performance is being compared against the 92nd (Pitt), 124th (Kent St.), and 106th (Illinois) ranked teams. Compared to those teams, App State looks like a world beater. Penn State's SOS starts to even up a bit when they face Ohio State this week. App State will drop as Penn State plays (presumably) tighter games against stiffer competition and App State plays closer games against their mediocre conference slate. That said, if App State waltzes through the Sun Belt, and there is little indication they won't, look for that close game against Penn State to keep the (other) Mountaineers in the top 25. North Texas North Texas comes in #15 on the basis of a +23 MOV, +273 YM performance against SMU, a +27 MOV, +40 YM performance against Arkansas, and a +40 MOV, +179 YM performance against Liberty. Not exactly a murderer's row of opponents, but UNT looks comparatively good next to TCU's performance against SMU (+30 MOV, +151 YM) and Auburn's performance against Arkansas (+31 MOV, -65 YM). But the game that really inflates UNT's DUSHEE score is Liberty's week 1 mauling of Old Dominion (+42 MOV, +290 YM), which after Old Dominion's week 4 upset of Virginia Tech (+14 MOV, +32 YM), gives North Texas a huge boost in DUSHEE. Baylor Baylor beat a bad UTSA pretty soundly (+17 MOV, +239 YM), lost to a decent (ranked 21) Duke team (-13 MOV, -3 YM), and beat what DUSHEE does not consider an awful (ranked 47th, at this point, noting that DUSHEE is ignoring their loss to Nichols St.) Kansas team (+19 MOV, +176 YM). I don't expect either Baylor or Kansas to stay this high once both start playing the meat of their Big XII-II schedule. Conference Rankings Right now, with most of the non-conference tilts decided and heading into conference play, the ACC and Pac-12 look incredibly mediocre, much closer to the American (slogan: No, there's a Power SIX! Really! It says so on our first down markers!) than they do the SEC, Big XII-II, and B1G. Speaking of which, if there is any consolation to what has been a bad two weeks for Frog fans, DUSHEE thinks the Big XII-II is the second strongest conference, on average. SEC 19.03 B12 15.48 B10 11.52 P12 2.14 ACC 1.78 AAC -3.91 MAC -11.67 MWC -12.07 CUSA -13.41 SBC -14.26 TCU The Frogs enter the rankings at #28, which seems about right, even if there are teams above and below them that are clearly misplaced at this point. Here are the Frogs DUSHEE numbers at this point, once again acknowledging that the week 1 game against Southern is ignored. PD is "point differential" which is MOV compared to the opponent's opponents average MOV; YD is "yardage differential," performing the same comparison for offensive total yardage; "score" is the DUSHEE score which adjusts the PD based on YD with a methodology described elsewhere in this blog. Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex PD: 14.33 34.00 -6.67 YD: 5.00 348.33 73.00 Score: 9.80 40.03 -0.81 DUSHEE is currently greatly rewarding the Frogs for their moral victory over the Buckeyes. Too bad we couldn't have made it an actual victory. Would have made that turd against Texas a little easier to swallow. Frogs Next Opponent: Iowa State DUSHEE currently has Iowa State ranked #45 with a DUSHEE score of 8.02. With TCU's DUSHEE score at 16.34 and giving the Frogs a home field advantage boost of 3.5 points (based on previous years' numbers; there have not been enough games played to establish a number for this season), DUSHEE has the Frogs as a 12-point favorite against the Cyclones with a ~70% chance of winning. But if the teams that showed up last week play each other, DUSHEE likes Iowa State to win by a TD or so. Opp: @ Iowa OU Akr PD: -2.50 18.00 18.00 YD: -18.00 62.67 -10.00 Score: -2.56 15.12 11.50 Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama 50.25 267.50 46.84 2 Penn St. 41.88 156.38 35.71 3 Appalachian State 33.58 260.33 35.37 4 Georgia 31.83 263.17 34.34 5 Clemson 27.33 319.33 34.14 6 Kentucky 32.17 227.67 32.79 7 South Carolina 30.50 244.56 32.52 8 Ohio St. 31.38 230.75 32.42 9 Texas A&M 29.22 245.72 31.73 10 West Virginia 27.75 240.50 30.49 11 Michigan 26.17 217.63 28.29 12 Wisconsin 27.13 193.38 27.72 13 Oklahoma St. 26.50 146.28 24.96 14 Notre Dame 27.38 130.00 24.73 15 North Texas 20.67 174.06 22.45 16 LSU 25.50 108.50 22.41 17 Missouri 17.67 200.78 21.79 18 Texas Tech 18.83 174.33 21.25 19 Mississippi St. 18.17 179.17 21.04 20 Miami (FL) 21.11 135.22 20.82 21 Duke 24.17 82.11 20.20 22 Boise St. 16.33 161.17 18.92 23 Oklahoma 18.92 125.25 18.85 24 Baylor 17.28 140.17 18.51 25 Stanford 23.72 38.50 17.73 26 Washington 18.22 106.17 17.44 27 Temple 19.89 80.28 17.26 28 TCU 13.89 142.11 16.34 29 Washington St. 9.83 188.78 15.97 30 Michigan St. 17.06 92.11 15.96 31 Army 15.29 106.42 15.50 32 Maryland 15.17 92.46 14.72 33 East Carolina 10.75 147.25 14.51 34 Florida 19.56 22.50 14.16 35 Texas 13.54 98.71 13.95 36 Iowa 13.06 101.33 13.76 37 Purdue 5.50 173.25 12.30 38 N.C. State 15.00 45.75 12.28 39 USC 11.17 77.96 11.33 40 BYU 11.11 69.56 10.87 41 Buffalo 12.94 43.67 10.81 42 Minnesota 10.10 65.48 10.00 43 Auburn 15.00 -13.67 9.32 44 Houston 8.67 48.67 8.20 45 Iowa St. 11.17 11.56 8.02 46 Fresno St. 4.58 79.33 7.01 47 Kansas 6.61 34.22 6.11 48 Mississippi 3.89 56.56 5.41 49 Arizona St. 6.17 25.17 5.37 50 Tennessee 1.33 68.17 4.29 51 Marshall 7.17 -12.50 4.15 52 Ball St. 2.89 26.56 3.25 53 Memphis 1.56 42.17 3.14 54 California 2.25 29.50 2.97 55 East. Michigan 1.78 34.94 2.93 56 Utah St. 9.50 -78.17 2.44 57 Liberty -0.89 59.83 2.39 58 Syracuse 1.33 29.00 2.33 59 Arkansas St. -1.06 54.83 2.03 60 Indiana -1.00 53.58 2.00 61 Virginia 0.61 27.17 1.76 62 Nebraska -5.56 105.56 1.56 63 Boston Coll. -1.06 29.33 0.76 64 San Diego St. 3.06 -30.00 0.54 65 South Florida 4.50 -49.67 0.52 66 Vanderbilt 0.04 2.13 0.13 67 Northwestern -2.39 32.72 0.04 68 Colorado -0.92 6.33 -0.30 69 Ohio 3.50 -65.75 -0.94 70 Southern Miss -11.25 108.75 -2.08 71 Oregon 1.17 -57.67 -2.10 72 Kansas St. -1.94 -47.00 -3.64 73 Navy -3.89 -36.61 -4.42 74 W. Michigan -9.22 33.44 -4.48 75 Hawaii -1.63 -75.79 -4.86 76 Arizona -10.83 43.50 -5.05 77 Florida Atlantic -6.33 -26.00 -5.52 78 Utah -7.00 -22.83 -5.80 79 Florida St. -9.39 -0.39 -6.28 80 Florida Intl. -2.04 -105.21 -6.61 81 Louisiana Tech -9.92 -9.33 -7.08 82 Cincinnati -3.67 -98.61 -7.36 83 UCF -2.50 -126.75 -7.99 84 Georgia Tech -15.00 33.00 -8.35 85 Virginia Tech -6.58 -79.92 -8.37 86 Tulsa -11.17 -20.78 -8.48 87 West. Kentucky -11.33 -22.06 -8.66 88 North Carolina -16.67 44.50 -8.89 89 UCLA -11.17 -38.94 -9.39 90 Arkansas -19.28 49.22 -10.40 91 SMU -9.29 -93.75 -10.87 92 Pittsburgh -14.67 -39.67 -11.76 93 Wake Forest -13.11 -61.17 -11.79 94 Louisville -7.72 -135.94 -11.93 95 Troy -17.00 -24.83 -12.57 96 Cent. Michigan -12.78 -81.50 -12.58 97 Wyoming -15.25 -48.75 -12.60 98 LA Monroe -18.17 -12.67 -12.74 99 Georgia Southern -6.83 -174.42 -13.25 100 UNLV -13.78 -91.72 -13.76 101 Toledo -10.75 -141.25 -14.21 102 Rutgers -13.71 -111.75 -14.71 103 Akron -11.50 -155.50 -15.42 104 Rice -12.94 -144.83 -15.85 105 Coastal Carolina -16.17 -105.50 -16.04 106 Illinois -10.33 -231.83 -18.45 107 Miami (OH) -18.42 -127.17 -18.62 108 Air Force -15.25 -178.50 -19.07 109 Colorado St. -20.04 -123.21 -19.50 110 South Alabama -17.38 -164.25 -19.77 111 Tulane -20.44 -125.11 -19.87 112 Middle Tenn. St. -25.00 -75.92 -20.45 113 Old Dominion -18.00 -183.92 -21.17 114 Oregon St. -25.11 -116.00 -22.52 115 New Mexico -14.75 -258.46 -22.72 116 UAB -28.25 -122.50 -24.94 117 Northern Illinois -25.75 -204.75 -27.37 118 Bowling Green -29.89 -153.89 -27.60 119 LA Lafayette -26.75 -226.50 -29.12 120 UNC-Charlotte -33.89 -153.44 -30.24 121 Georgia State -31.50 -192.33 -30.59 122 Connecticut -26.50 -279.83 -31.62 123 UT-San Antonio -30.92 -238.63 -32.51 124 Kent St. -30.22 -314.22 -35.81 125 Nevada -35.50 -267.61 -37.01 126 UTEP -38.83 -267.42 -39.22 127 Massachusetts -33.71 -339.71 -39.41 128 San Jose St. -37.75 -381.75 -44.20 129 New Mexico St. -42.13 -353.07 -45.69 130 Texas St. -43.56 -338.00 -45.89 Rankings by Conference AAC 27 Temple 19.89 80.28 17.26 33 East Carolina 10.75 147.25 14.51 44 Houston 8.67 48.67 8.20 53 Memphis 1.56 42.17 3.14 65 South Florida 4.50 -49.67 0.52 73 Navy -3.89 -36.61 -4.42 82 Cincinnati -3.67 -98.61 -7.36 83 UCF -2.50 -126.75 -7.99 86 Tulsa -11.17 -20.78 -8.48 91 SMU -9.29 -93.75 -10.87 111 Tulane -20.44 -125.11 -19.87 122 Connecticut -26.50 -279.83 -31.62 ACC 5 Clemson 27.33 319.33 34.14 20 Miami (FL) 21.11 135.22 20.82 21 Duke 24.17 82.11 20.20 38 N.C. State 15.00 45.75 12.28 58 Syracuse 1.33 29.00 2.33 61 Virginia 0.61 27.17 1.76 63 Boston Coll. -1.06 29.33 0.76 79 Florida St. -9.39 -0.39 -6.28 84 Georgia Tech -15.00 33.00 -8.35 85 Virginia Tech -6.58 -79.92 -8.37 88 North Carolina -16.67 44.50 -8.89 92 Pittsburgh -14.67 -39.67 -11.76 93 Wake Forest -13.11 -61.17 -11.79 94 Louisville -7.72 -135.94 -11.93 B1G 2 Penn St. 41.88 156.38 35.71 8 Ohio St. 31.38 230.75 32.42 11 Michigan 26.17 217.63 28.29 12 Wisconsin 27.13 193.38 27.72 30 Michigan St. 17.06 92.11 15.96 32 Maryland 15.17 92.46 14.72 36 Iowa 13.06 101.33 13.76 37 Purdue 5.50 173.25 12.30 42 Minnesota 10.10 65.48 10.00 60 Indiana -1.00 53.58 2.00 62 Nebraska -5.56 105.56 1.56 67 Northwestern -2.39 32.72 0.04 102 Rutgers -13.71 -111.75 -14.71 106 Illinois -10.33 -231.83 -18.45 XII-II 10 West Virginia 27.75 240.50 30.49 13 Oklahoma St. 26.50 146.28 24.96 18 Texas Tech 18.83 174.33 21.25 23 Oklahoma 18.92 125.25 18.85 24 Baylor 17.28 140.17 18.51 28 TCU 13.89 142.11 16.34 35 Texas 13.54 98.71 13.95 45 Iowa St. 11.17 11.56 8.02 47 Kansas 6.61 34.22 6.11 72 Kansas St. -1.94 -47.00 -3.64 CUSA 15 North Texas 20.67 174.06 22.45 51 Marshall 7.17 -12.50 4.15 70 Southern Miss -11.25 108.75 -2.08 77 Florida Atlantic -6.33 -26.00 -5.52 80 Florida Intl. -2.04 -105.21 -6.61 81 Louisiana Tech -9.92 -9.33 -7.08 87 West. Kentucky -11.33 -22.06 -8.66 104 Rice -12.94 -144.83 -15.85 112 Middle Tenn. St. -25.00 -75.92 -20.45 113 Old Dominion -18.00 -183.92 -21.17 116 UAB -28.25 -122.50 -24.94 120 UNC-Charlotte -33.89 -153.44 -30.24 123 UT-San Antonio -30.92 -238.63 -32.51 126 UTEP -38.83 -267.42 -39.22 Indies 14 Notre Dame 27.38 130.00 24.73 31 Army 15.29 106.42 15.50 40 BYU 11.11 69.56 10.87 57 Liberty -0.89 59.83 2.39 127 Massachusetts -33.71 -339.71 -39.41 129 New Mexico St. -42.13 -353.07 -45.69 MAC 41 Buffalo 12.94 43.67 10.81 52 Ball St. 2.89 26.56 3.25 55 East. Michigan 1.78 34.94 2.93 69 Ohio 3.50 -65.75 -0.94 74 W. Michigan -9.22 33.44 -4.48 96 Cent. Michigan -12.78 -81.50 -12.58 101 Toledo -10.75 -141.25 -14.21 103 Akron -11.50 -155.50 -15.42 107 Miami (OH) -18.42 -127.17 -18.62 117 Northern Illinois -25.75 -204.75 -27.37 118 Bowling Green -29.89 -153.89 -27.60 124 Kent St. -30.22 -314.22 -35.81 MWC 22 Boise St. 16.33 161.17 18.92 46 Fresno St. 4.58 79.33 7.01 56 Utah St. 9.50 -78.17 2.44 64 San Diego St. 3.06 -30.00 0.54 75 Hawaii -1.63 -75.79 -4.86 97 Wyoming -15.25 -48.75 -12.60 100 UNLV -13.78 -91.72 -13.76 108 Air Force -15.25 -178.50 -19.07 109 Colorado St. -20.04 -123.21 -19.50 115 New Mexico -14.75 -258.46 -22.72 125 Nevada -35.50 -267.61 -37.01 128 San Jose St. -37.75 -381.75 -44.20 PAC12 25 Stanford 23.72 38.50 17.73 26 Washington 18.22 106.17 17.44 29 Washington St. 9.83 188.78 15.97 39 USC 11.17 77.96 11.33 49 Arizona St. 6.17 25.17 5.37 54 California 2.25 29.50 2.97 68 Colorado -0.92 6.33 -0.30 71 Oregon 1.17 -57.67 -2.10 76 Arizona -10.83 43.50 -5.05 78 Utah -7.00 -22.83 -5.80 89 UCLA -11.17 -38.94 -9.39 114 Oregon St. -25.11 -116.00 -22.52 SBC 3 Appalachian State 33.58 260.33 35.37 59 Arkansas St. -1.06 54.83 2.03 95 Troy -17.00 -24.83 -12.57 98 LA Monroe -18.17 -12.67 -12.74 99 Georgia Southern -6.83 -174.42 -13.25 105 Coastal Carolina -16.17 -105.50 -16.04 110 South Alabama -17.38 -164.25 -19.77 119 LA Lafayette -26.75 -226.50 -29.12 121 Georgia State -31.50 -192.33 -30.59 130 Texas St. -43.56 -338.00 -45.89 SEC 1 Alabama 50.25 267.50 46.84 4 Georgia 31.83 263.17 34.34 6 Kentucky 32.17 227.67 32.79 7 South Carolina 30.50 244.56 32.52 9 Texas A&M 29.22 245.72 31.73 16 LSU 25.50 108.50 22.41 17 Missouri 17.67 200.78 21.79 19 Mississippi St. 18.17 179.17 21.04 34 Florida 19.56 22.50 14.16 43 Auburn 15.00 -13.67 9.32 48 Mississippi 3.89 56.56 5.41 50 Tennessee 1.33 68.17 4.29 66 Vanderbilt 0.04 2.13 0.13 90 Arkansas -19.28 49.22 -10.40
  5. 1 point
    Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter. ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton. But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard right, THIRTEEN wins! ... and sponsored by what can only be described as the most iconic brand of highly processed, nominally cheese-based, boxed snack cracker (yes, you heard me Cheese Nips, #$%@ you), the inimitable, the indefatigable, the inestimable ... I get a little chill running down my spine just seeing that picture. The state of Arizona hasn't been very good to the Horned Frogs over the last 45 years. Our two bowl games in the state represent two of the last three bowl losses LRBW2XAPCotYHCGMFP has sustained, the ugly 17-16 loss to Michigan State in the 2012 BW3 Bowl, the painful 17-10 loss to Boise in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. The Frogs are also 1-3 all time against Arizona schools, although the one win did come in the state of Arizona, another low-scoring win (13-10) in 2003 against the Arizona team that John Mackovic ruined after he ruined UT. And you can almost bet the house that this game will be another low scoring contest as both teams have stout defenses and borderline anemic offenses. Here are Cal's numbers week-to-week: Opp: UNC @ BYU Ore | @ Zona UCLA @ OreSt | Wash @ WSU @ USC | Col Stan PD: -2.20 5.10 -12.40 | -12.30 -43.09 20.40 | 11.55 8.20 0.09 | 9.90 -6.00 YD: -51.30 142.70 -28.10 | -175.50 -99.18 152.00 | 88.00 -11.00 -82.36 | -125.00 3.10 DO: -3.95 10.31 -9.63 | -16.70 -33.53 20.96 | 11.96 4.93 -3.93 | 0.54 -3.85 Score: 24-17 21-18 24-42 | 17-24 7-37 49-7 | 12-10 13-19 15-14 | 33-21 13-23 Particularly after Cal's inexplicable blow-out loss to UCLA, their defense was stout, giving up an average of 16 points a game over the last half of the season. But make no mistake, taken as a whole, Cal has shown very little evidence that they are anything other than an utterly average team. Their only fairly impressive performances were a blow-out win against a hapless Oregon State and a solid shutdown of the Huskies in Week 9. They struggled to beat a bad North Carolina team, lost to a bad Arizona team, and were a little lucky to have beaten USC and Colorado late in the year in games where they were significantly outgained. Of course, the Frogs were pretty damn average most of this season too. As done last year, I'll compare how DUSHEE, Sagarin (Predictor), and SRS see the bowl matchups as compared to the opening Vegas odds. When I checked the ESPN site linked above, oddsmakers had the Cheez-It Bowl even, but all the computer models like the Horned Frogs. Throughout this post DO = DUSHEE Original, DX = DUSHEE Extra Crispy, DA = average of DO and DX, Sag = Sagarin, and SoS is the DUSHEE-based strength of schedule. Here are the computer numbers for the two teams Bowl Location Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Cheez-It Phoenix, AZ TCU 6-6 0.72 4.49 76.09 3.33 4.52 California 7-5 -2.08 -1.82 73.15 2.34 0.18 The Frogs have had a clear advantage in Strength of Schedule, which makes TCU a stronger favorite in the DX model, by almost a TD. DUSHEE Original and Sagarin like the Frogs by roughly a field goal and SRS likes the Frogs by a point. DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU 2.80 TCU 6.31 TCU 4.56 TCU 0 TCU 2.94 TCU 1.0 Other Big XII-II Bowls It's a bit of a rough slate of games for the Big XII-II. Only West Virginia is favored based on the starting lines coming out of Vegas and the Frogs are the only other team favored by the computers. There is a good chance the conference comes out of the bowl season no better than 2-5. Texas It's the Rapey Bears against the Gilded Age Robber Barons in this battle of mediocrity in Houston. All of the computer models like the Commodores (She's a brick .... house) both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Baylor 6-6 -3.51 -2.34 69.95 2.03 1.47 Vanderbilt 6-6 3.20 7.09 73.31 7.85 6.38 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Vanderbilt 6.71 Vanderbilt 9.42 Vanderbilt 8.07 Vanderbilt 2.5 Vanderbilt 3.36 Vanderbilt 5.8 Camping World West Virginia is the clear favorite in Disney World against the Sicilian Orangepersons. Only the SRS metric doesn't like the Mountaineers against the spread. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS West Virginia 8-3 14.84 19.70 85.94 13.73 2.01 Syracuse 9-3 6.02 5.52 77.19 11.08 -0.90 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS West Virginia 8.82 West Virginia 14.19 West Virginia 11.50 West Virginia 7 West Virginia 8.75 West Virginia 2.7 Alamo The location of many a furious and historic Frog comeback sees the return of the dread pirate Mike Leach against an Iowa State team that faded coming down the stretch. The computer models all agree that the starting line on this game was far too low with DUSHEE and Sagarin both liking the Cougars by more than a touchdown. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Iowa St. 8-4 5.47 4.79 75.62 7.73 2.73 Washington St. 10-2 13.53 14.27 83.46 12.46 -1.45 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Washington St. 8.06 Washington St. 9.48 Washington St. 8.77 Washington St. 1.5 Washington St. 7.84 Washington St. 4.7 Liberty Another matchup where the computer models think Vegas is being far too generous with the Big XII-II team, all taking the Tigers ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Missouri 8-4 16.65 22.70 84.27 15.19 7.84 Oklahoma St. 6-6 4.84 7.74 78.75 5.52 2.74 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Missouri 11.80 Missouri 14.96 Missouri 13.38 Missouri 4.5 Missouri 5.52 Missouri 9.7 NY6 Bowls Peach Everybody likes the Khaki Pants in this one. Only the SRS would take Flo Rida, barely, ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Florida 9-3 10.59 15.63 82.91 12.20 6.78 Michigan 10-2 24.34 28.24 91.78 19.25 3.06 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Michigan 13.75 Michigan 12.61 Michigan 13.18 Michigan 7.5 Michigan 8.87 Michigan 7.1 Fiesta The first game in our summary where there is substantial disagreement between the models. Generally speaking, this most often happens when there is a big difference in strengths of schedule, as is the case this time. Starting off, Vegas likes LSU a lot, so much so that all the computer models, while disagreeing on the winner SU, all like the Kaniggits ATS. DUSHEE Original and the SRS like UCF to win the game, DUSHEE XC and Sagarin like the Bayou Bengals. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS LSU 9-3 13.78 19.59 84.00 14.73 7.85 UCF 12-0 18.26 17.77 82.46 16.22 -2.57 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCF 4.48 LSU 1.82 UCF 1.33 LSU 10 LSU 1.54 UCF 1.5 Rose Unanimous agreement that the Buckeyes are both the favorite SU and ATS. Only about 2.5 points separates the models. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio St. 12-1 19.13 21.49 91.87 18.09 1.07 Washington 10-3 12.00 13.95 86.84 11.84 2.60 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St. 7.13 Ohio St. 7.54 Ohio St. 7.34 Ohio St. 4 Ohio St. 5.03 Ohio St. 6.3 Sugar No one thinks this is going to be close. Sagarin gives a slight edge to the Horns ATS. DUSHEE thinks UGa wins by three scores, but DUSHEE has been lower on Texas than the general consensus all year. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Georgia 11-2 26.02 33.68 92.68 22.64 7.27 Texas 9-4 6.74 9.12 81.67 9.83 3.18 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia 19.28 Georgia 24.56 Georgia 21.92 Georgia 12.5 Georgia 11.01 Georgia 12.8 Cotton Neither of the Semi-Finals look to be competitive. Clemson is a heavy favorite in this matchup. DUSHEE likes the Tigers by nearly 20, Vegas by 10.5. Only the SRS likes the Fightin' Rudys ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Clemson 13-0 34.21 37.26 100.01 23.61 0.94 Notre Dame 12-0 17.01 18.18 87.59 19.06 0.30 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Clemson 17.20 Clemson 19.08 Clemson 18.14 Clemson 10.5 Clemson 12.42 Clemson 4.6 Orange The models are even more unanimous (is that a possible thing, logically?) about the other Semi-Final, although not ATS, where Sagarin and SRS like the Sooners. For some reason, my gut tells me that the Sooners are going to be better here than all the numbers suggest, but the numbers are clear. Roll Tide. Blech. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Alabama 13-0 36.99 42.89 102.68 27.18 5.16 Oklahoma 12-1 20.67 23.30 90.16 17.96 2.94 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama 16.32 Alabama 19.59 Alabama 17.96 Alabama 14 Alabama 12.52 Alabama 9.2 Other Bowls of Regional Interest New Mexico The Fightin' Greene Eagles of Denton face off against the former team of technological's new coach, Utah State. The Aggies are the unanimous favorite but all the computer models like the Mean Green ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS North Texas 9-3 7.03 1.62 66.89 1.68 -8.86 Utah St. 10-2 13.44 10.15 77.65 8.52 -6.54 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah St. 6.41 Utah St. 8.53 Utah St. 7.47 Utah St. 11 Utah St. 10.76 Utah St. 6.8 Frisco The Bowl of Generic Suburban Dallas pits THE Ohio University against the Fightin' Montezuma's of Far Southern California. Ohio is the unanimous favorite SU and the unanimous choice ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio 8-4 12.07 8.04 70.85 4.00 -5.87 San Diego St. 7-5 -0.89 -2.31 65.31 -1.59 -2.09 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio 12.96 Ohio 10.35 Ohio 11.65 Ohio 3 Ohio 5.54 Ohio 5.6 Armed Forces Played in our Frogs humble home of Amon G. (Patterson) Carter Stadium, the Black Kaniggits of the Hudson have been DUSHEE favorites all year, and true to form, DUSHEE likes the Cadets in this game way more than everybody else. That said, the computers all agree that Army should be the favorite in the game while Vegas likes Cougar High. Note that the Army-Navy game is not included in Army's totals as I am writing this before the game has occurred in the space-time continuum. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Army 9-2 11.11 10.61 72.33 6.63 -1.90 Houston 8-4 1.72 -1.70 71.86 3.50 -5.12 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Army 9.40 Army 12.31 Army 10.85 Houston 3 Army 0.47 Army 3.1 First Responder The Smurf Donkeys rebounded from a very bad loss to Oklahoma State early in the year to have a very nice little season, and for that, they get rewarded with a bowl game in the dilapidated Cotton Bowl against a barely .500 ACC team. A reminder of what life was like as a have-not. As with Army, DUSHEE likes Boise far more than anybody else, but Boise is still the unanimous favorite over the Fightin' Fluties. DUSHEE and SRS like the Broncos ATS; Sagarin says to take BC and the points. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Boston Coll. 7-5 2.29 2.94 77.00 4.92 2.07 Boise St. 10-3 15.27 15.43 78.79 8.61 -1.04 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boise St. 12.98 Boise St. 12.49 Boise St. 12.73 Boise St. 2.5 Boise St. 1.79 Boise St. 3.7 Taxslayer I guess this is a good bowl? Seems like agricultural deserves better. Two of their losses were respectable games against the two inarguably best teams in the country and they had the toughest schedule, per DUSHEE, in all of college football. NC State was a schizophrenic team this year, looking like maybe a legitimate challenger to Clemson early in the season with impressive wins over a good Marshall team and what then appeared to be a good Virginia team. Then not so much toward the end of the season as Clemson, Syracuse, and lowly Wake Forest all beat the Wolfpack. This game has one of the larger differentials in schedule strength, and as expected, DUSHEE Extra Crispy likes the Ags a lot more than Original, the latter being more in line with Sagarin and SRS. Agricultural is a unanimous favorite with only Sagarin picking NC State ATS. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Texas A&M 8-4 15.48 23.30 83.06 12.14 10.12 N.C. State 9-3 12.17 9.14 81.22 7.85 -1.82 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas A&M 3.31 Texas A&M 14.15 Texas A&M 8.73 Texas A&M 3 Texas A&M 1.84 Texas A&M 4.3 Sun The Bowl that should hold a soft spot in the heart of every Frog fan this year pits the Frog's bowl opponent from last year against the 7-6 ACC Coastal Division champion. Pitt's SOS puts them as the favorite per DUSHEE Extra Crispy, but everyone else likes the Trees. All the models say to take Pitt and the points except for Sagarin who is exactly on the Vegas spread. Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Pittsburgh 7-6 2.23 7.12 73.61 6.14 6.89 Stanford 8-4 4.45 6.51 82.11 8.05 3.09 DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Stanford 2.22 Pittsburgh 0.62 Stanford 0.80 Stanford 8.5 Stanford 8.50 Stanford 1.9 All the Rest Bowl DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Cure LA Lafayette 1.37 LA Lafayette 2.69 LA Lafayette 2.03 Tulane 3.5 Tulane 5.70 LA Lafayette 0.4 Las Vegas Fresno St. 12.29 Fresno St. 12.46 Fresno St. 12.38 Fresno St. 3.5 Fresno St. 5.66 Fresno St. 6.0 Camellia East. Michigan 0.01 East. Michigan 1.17 East. Michigan 0.59 East. Michigan 3.5 East. Michigan 0.02 Georgia Southern 3.3 New Orleans Appalachian State 10.60 Appalachian State 8.89 Appalachian State 9.74 Appalachian State 9 Appalachian State 10.35 Appalachian State 7.2 Boca Raton UAB 7.57 UAB 6.56 UAB 7.06 Northern Illinois 1 Northern Illinois 0.44 UAB 0.0 Gasparilla Marshall 10.57 Marshall 11.76 Marshall 11.16 South Florida 2 Marshall 1.57 Marshall 4.3 Bahamas Toledo 3.57 Toledo 4.90 Toledo 4.24 Toledo 4.5 Toledo 7.75 Toledo 1.8 Idaho Potato BYU 7.18 BYU 9.20 BYU 8.19 BYU 14 BYU 7.88 BYU 4.8 Birmingham Memphis 9.23 Memphis 7.32 Memphis 8.28 Memphis 4.5 Memphis 3.24 Memphis 2.1 Dollar General Buffalo 5.67 Buffalo 7.84 Buffalo 6.75 Buffalo 4 Buffalo 1.21 Buffalo 0.7 Hawaii Louisiana Tech 2.96 Louisiana Tech 2.85 Louisiana Tech 2.90 Hawaii 2.5 Louisiana Tech 2.97 Hawaii 4.5 Quick Lane Georgia Tech 2.11 Georgia Tech 0.02 Georgia Tech 1.07 Georgia Tech 3.5 Georgia Tech 3.13 Georgia Tech 1.1 Independence Temple 14.48 Temple 9.76 Temple 12.12 Temple 5 Temple 1.94 Duke 0.0 Pinstripe Miami (FL) 1.61 Miami (FL) 1.27 Miami (FL) 1.44 Miami (FL) 2.5 Miami (FL) 1.87 Miami (FL) 2.6 Music City Auburn 1.03 Auburn 3.03 Auburn 2.03 Auburn 3.5 Auburn 4.48 Auburn 0.5 Belk South Carolina 3.49 South Carolina 9.77 South Carolina 6.63 South Carolina 3.5 South Carolina 5.83 South Carolina 4.1 Arizona Arkansas St. 4.27 Arkansas St. 3.16 Arkansas St. 3.71 Arkansas St. 0 Arkansas St. 0.31 Arkansas St. 3.9 Military Cincinnati 20.56 Cincinnati 19.39 Cincinnati 19.98 Cincinnati 7.5 Cincinnati 5.28 Cincinnati 8.2 Redbox Michigan St. 2.51 Michigan St. 6.08 Michigan St. 4.29 Oregon 1.5 Michigan St. 0.50 Michigan St. 0.5 Holiday Utah 11.31 Utah 12.50 Utah 11.91 Utah 8.5 Utah 7.35 Utah 4.7 Outback Mississippi St. 5.60 Mississippi St. 10.34 Mississippi St. 7.97 Mississippi St. 4 Mississippi St. 1.35 Mississippi St. 0.9 Citrus Penn St. 7.88 Penn St. 5.90 Penn St. 6.89 Penn St. 7 Penn St. 7.46 Penn St. 1.1
  6. 1 point
    Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points). It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia. Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team. The biggest mover in the top 25 was the Bearkats of Cincinnati, jumping 8 spots and almost 4 points after destroying East Carolina. The larger overall upward mover was Middle Tennessee who pounded what had been a borderline top-25 team, UAB, by 24 points and over 300 yards. The biggest mover in the wrong direction was easily Duke, who fell 23 spots and over 5.5 points after inexplicably getting blown out by what had been by all counts a really bad Wake Forest team 59-7. Frogs Week-to-Week The Frogs moved up for the second week in a row, 4 spots and 1.4 points to #66. Just behind the Frogs is B1G West champion Northwestern and only 9 spots ahead is ACC CCG qualifier Pitt (I'm too lazy to look up what the division is called). Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex | ISU Ttech OU | @ Kan KSU @ WVU | @ Bay OkSt PD: 23.60 6.00 -9.27 | 8.20 -3.50 -8.18 | -8.20 -2.70 -25.78 | 1.40 10.80 YD: 78.40 143.55 29.82 | 140.60 26.10 -133.73 | 141.40 -90.40 -244.67 | 24.50 185.60 Score: 19.53 10.96 -4.74 | 12.28 -1.07 -11.94 | 1.39 -6.18 -29.05 | 2.12 16.20 The Frogs' performance against Okie St was their 2nd best of the season based on DUSHEE score, behind only the SMU game, and was the first time the Frogs looked like a significantly above-average team since the Iowa State game in Week 6. Wince we don't know the Frogs' next opponent yet, let's move on to ... Conference Championship Games Below is a look at all the conference championship games this weekend. DUSHEE only thinks 3 are likely to be competitive: the CUSA game between UAB and MTSU is a true toss-up (after giving MTSU the home field advantage (HFA) ... UAB would be favored on a neutral field), the Pac-12 with Utah as a slight favorite, and the MWC where a Boise HFA turns that game from a toss-up to a Boise 3-point advantage. DUSHEE gives Georgia, Texas, Northwestern, and Memphis all somewhere around a 1-in-4 to 1-in-5 chance. Pitt is given less than a 10% chance of beating Clemson. CCG Location Team 1 Rec DUSHEE O Team 2 Rec DUSHEE O DO Fav (Vegas) DDO + HFA Team 1 Chance SEC Atlanta, GA Georgia 11-1 25.11 Alabama 12-0 38.29 Alabama (-10.5) -13.18 27% ACC Charlotte, NC Pittsburgh 7-5 2.29 Clemson 12-0 33.95 Clemson (-23.5) -31.66 9% BXII-II Arlington, TX Texas 9-3 6.85 Oklahoma 11-1 21.04 Oklahoma (-5.5) -14.19 20% P12 Santa Clara, CA Washington 9-3 11.48 Utah 9-3 12.73 Utah (+3) -1.25 47% B1G Indianapolis, IN Northwestern 8-4 0.81 Ohio St. 11-1 18.80 Ohio St. (-13) -17.99 24% AAC Orlando, FL Memphis 8-4 5.57 UCF 11-0 18.50 UCF (-7) -12.93 -16.45 24% CUSA Murfreesboro, TN UAB 9-3 6.73 Middle Tenn. St. 8-4 3.21 UAB (+2.5) -3.52 -0.01 50% MAC Detroit, MI Northern Illinois 7-5 -2.36 Buffalo 10-2 7.04 Buffalo (-4) -9.39 33% MWC Boise, ID Fresno St. 10-2 15.49 Boise St. 10-2 15.14 Fresno St. (+1.5) -0.35 +3.16 44% SBC Boone, NC LA Lafayette 7-5 -3.56 Appalachian State 9-2 15.29 Appalachian State (-17.5) -18.85 -22.37 13% In general, DUSHEE is higher on most of the favorites than Vegas is. This is particularly true for Oklahoma, where Vegas likes the Sooners by 5.5 and DUSHEE likes them by 14, and UCF, where Vegas likes the Knights by a TD and DUSHEE likes them (with home field) by 16.5. Vegas favors MTSU in the DUSHEE toss-up CUSA game by 2.5 and favors Washington by 3 when DUSHEE favors the Utes by a point to point-and-a-half. Only two of the CCGs feature the top two teams in each conference based on their DUSHEE ranking ... the SEC and the MWC. So, per DUSHEE's assessment, eight out of 10 CCGs are pitting inferior matchups for their respective "championships." Conference: DUSHEE Rank (Rank in Conference) SEC: 1 Alabama (1) vs. 3 Georgia (2) ACC: 2 Clemson (1) vs 57 Pitt (6) ... 29 Miami is the 2nd ranked ACC team and would only be a 26-point dog to Clemson BXII-II: 5 Oklahoma (1) vs 35 Texas (3) ... 17 West Virginia ranks second and would only be a 6-point dog to OU P12: 22 Utah (2) vs 25 Washington (3) ... 20 Washington State ranked 1st, only 2 points separate these 3 teams B1G: 7 Ohio St. (2) vs. 67 Northwestern (11) ... 4 Michigan was the top ranked team; 19 Iowa was the top ranked team in the West AAC: 8 UCF (1) vs. 41 Memphis (4) ... 16 Cincinnati was the 2nd ranked team in the conference, Memphis was the top ranked team in the West Division CUSA: 37 UAB (2) vs 50 MTSU (5) ... 33 North Texas was the top ranked team, 44 Marshall was the top ranked team in the East Division MAC: 34 Buffalo (2) vs 79 NIU (5) ... 23 Ohio was the top ranked team, 61 Toledo was the top ranked team in the West Division MWC: 13 Fresno (1) vs 15 Boise (2) SBC: 14 App St. (1) vs. 87 ULaLa (5) ... 53 Arkansas State was the 2nd ranked team and the top ranked team in the side of the bracket ULaLa was on Conference Ratings Unfortunately, this season, the SEC really was far and away the best conference in college football. As we have discussed before, there are many ways to judge the "best" conference and pretty much any way you look at it ... SEC. Top of the conference? They have 6 teams in the top 20. The Pac 12 has 1 ... Washington State at #20. The ACC has 1 ... Clemson ... and their second best team, Miami, is 29th. The Big XII-II has 2 teams in the top 20, same as the Mountain West. The B1G has four. Bottom of the conference? The SEC had two clearly below average teams, Arkansas and Tennessee. The ACC had six. The B1G and Big XII-II both had three. The Pac 12 has five. Conference average? The average SEC team is nearly a TD better than the average B1G or BXII-II team and would be a 9-10 point favorite on a neutral field against the average P12 or ACC team. The average ACC team is closer to an average Sun Belt team than an average SEC team. SEC 10.77 B10 4.32 B12 4.15 P12 1.77 ACC 0.82 AAC -2.15 MWC -2.51 MAC -5.51 CUSA -5.62 SBC -6.19 Yet another reason why this season has sucked. Performances of the Week Top 3 48.30 Ohio St. vs. Michigan (23 MOV, 166 YM) 47.40 Cincinnati vs. ECU (50 MOV, 338 YM) 45.64 Middle Tennessee St. vs. UAB (24 MOV, 305 YM) Bottom 3 -56.59 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) -42.17 Louisville vs. Kentucky (-46 MOV, -292 YM) -39.58 Central Michigan at Toledo (-38 MOV, -292 YM) Overall Rankings Week 13 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 37.01 280.91 38.29 0 -0.72 2 Clemson 32.88 248.04 33.95 0 -2.08 3 Georgia 25.14 172.21 25.11 1 1.40 4 Michigan 22.12 200.75 24.48 -1 -2.82 5 Oklahoma 19.91 160.35 21.04 0 -0.43 6 Mississippi St. 18.35 150.92 19.55 0 1.18 7 Ohio St. 17.12 152.37 18.80 4 2.91 8 UCF 20.66 97.49 18.50 1 1.18 9 Notre Dame 17.43 116.20 17.25 -2 -0.89 10 Missouri 17.25 117.16 17.18 3 1.46 11 Penn St. 17.13 99.04 16.22 6 1.64 12 Texas A&M 12.95 146.44 15.73 -4 -1.71 13 Fresno St. 16.93 86.80 15.49 -3 -0.79 14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 4 1.15 15 Boise St. 15.13 104.23 15.14 4 1.02 16 Cincinnati 14.01 119.62 15.14 8 3.79 17 West Virginia 15.23 101.18 15.06 -1 0.29 18 LSU 14.68 93.08 14.30 -4 -1.14 19 Iowa 14.51 84.01 13.75 -4 -1.46 20 Washington St. 12.86 106.15 13.72 -8 -2.10 21 Utah St. 16.63 50.92 13.55 -1 -0.21 22 Utah 12.96 84.43 12.73 -1 -0.90 23 Ohio 12.27 84.20 12.26 -1 -0.20 24 Temple 12.35 75.14 11.88 -1 -0.56 25 Washington 10.65 90.43 11.48 4 2.38 26 Army 12.21 65.97 11.34 -1 0.06 27 Florida 10.68 71.15 10.57 6 1.99 28 Auburn 10.25 35.12 8.53 2 -0.50 29 Miami (FL) 7.46 68.89 8.32 7 0.22 30 N.C. State 8.43 49.70 8.03 -3 -1.81 31 Kentucky 9.31 36.37 7.97 9 1.82 32 Purdue 7.56 44.00 7.18 3 -1.02 33 North Texas 6.06 64.41 7.16 -5 -2.29 34 Buffalo 6.52 55.45 7.04 10 2.10 35 Texas 8.10 29.96 6.85 -1 -1.48 36 Wisconsin 5.20 68.22 6.77 -4 -2.12 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 -11 -3.37 38 Michigan St. 5.47 52.92 6.21 -7 -2.79 39 Syracuse 7.11 21.88 5.80 7 1.76 40 Iowa St. 7.24 18.77 5.74 -2 -1.10 41 Memphis 5.10 44.74 5.57 19 3.15 42 South Carolina 6.24 24.65 5.36 8 1.70 43 Oklahoma St. 4.82 40.35 5.17 -6 -2.11 44 Marshall 5.18 27.66 4.80 8 1.16 45 Stanford 7.29 -4.72 4.63 -6 -1.96 46 Florida Atlantic 1.28 77.64 4.62 -3 -0.51 47 BYU 3.16 45.29 4.30 -2 0.23 48 Oregon 4.52 15.51 3.77 6 0.44 49 Georgia Tech 2.87 29.99 3.37 -7 -2.19 50 Middle Tenn. St. 4.04 10.67 3.21 28 4.94 51 Vanderbilt 5.76 -14.31 3.15 12 1.97 52 Arizona St. 3.68 13.72 3.12 1 -0.52 53 Arkansas St. 1.44 40.64 2.93 11 1.79 54 Texas Tech 2.58 18.21 2.60 -13 -3.12 55 Houston 4.07 -5.45 2.45 -8 -1.53 56 Nebraska -0.18 51.33 2.37 5 0.41 57 Pittsburgh 3.14 4.06 2.29 -6 -1.35 58 Miami (OH) 2.60 8.77 2.16 9 1.64 59 Air Force 0.65 31.81 1.97 -1 -0.58 60 Southern Miss -1.06 52.88 1.86 6 1.26 61 Toledo 4.02 -17.45 1.83 13 2.82 62 Boston Coll. 3.57 -15.91 1.61 -6 -1.35 63 Virginia 1.83 7.89 1.60 -15 -2.27 64 Minnesota 1.94 -0.24 1.28 8 2.04 65 Maryland 2.11 -3.14 1.26 -16 -2.44 66 TCU -0.69 27.38 0.86 4 1.39 67 Northwestern 2.79 -21.58 0.81 -12 -2.46 68 Troy 1.35 -6.84 0.57 3 1.14 69 Arizona -3.67 58.69 0.40 -1 0.48 70 East. Michigan 0.39 -1.29 0.20 -8 -1.23 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 -2 0.58 72 Mississippi -3.38 48.55 0.10 -15 -2.70 73 Wyoming -0.77 6.22 -0.21 6 1.91 74 USC -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 2 0.79 75 San Diego St. -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 -10 -1.29 76 Nevada -2.99 10.84 -1.47 -3 -0.56 77 Florida Intl. 0.15 -38.12 -1.75 8 2.17 78 California -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 2 0.28 79 Northern Illinois -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 -4 -1.32 80 UCLA -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 4 0.64 81 Indiana -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 1 -0.13 82 Duke -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 -23 -5.57 83 W. Michigan -7.04 31.35 -3.17 5 1.01 84 Tulane -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 -3 -0.85 85 Baylor -5.34 4.58 -3.34 5 1.23 86 Colorado -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 -3 -0.48 87 LA Lafayette -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 4 1.05 88 Kansas St. -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 -1 0.14 89 Tennessee -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 -12 -2.59 90 Wake Forest -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 10 4.45 91 Louisiana Tech -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 -2 -0.57 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 2 0.30 93 South Florida -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 0 -0.59 94 East Carolina -11.77 15.08 -7.12 -8 -3.11 95 Florida St. -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 -3 -1.61 96 SMU -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 -1 -0.43 97 Hawaii -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 7 1.93 98 Virginia Tech -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 -1 0.41 99 North Carolina -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 -3 0.23 100 Kansas -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 -1 0.50 101 Navy -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 0 0.74 102 LA Monroe -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 0 0.19 103 Ball St. -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 0 -0.50 104 Arkansas -12.59 -49.10 -10.77 -6 -1.99 105 Tulsa -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 1 0.61 106 Colorado St. -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 3 0.96 107 West. Kentucky -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 3 1.39 108 UNLV -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 4 1.33 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 -4 -2.05 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 -3 -1.39 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 0 0.00 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 -4 -1.22 113 Akron -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 3 1.69 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 1 -0.21 115 Rutgers -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 3 0.94 116 New Mexico -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 -3 -2.09 117 Illinois -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 5 1.35 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 1 0.69 119 Cent. Michigan -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 -5 -1.53 120 Bowling Green -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 -3 -0.47 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 3 1.81 122 Kent St. -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 4 2.48 123 Oregon St. -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 -3 -1.31 124 UTEP -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 -1 -0.22 125 San Jose St. -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 0 1.78 126 Louisville -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 -5 -2.14 127 Rice -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 0 1.79 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 1 2.61 129 New Mexico St. -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 -1 1.56 130 Connecticut -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 0 -0.30 By Conference AAC 8 UCF 20.66 97.49 18.50 16 Cincinnati 14.01 119.62 15.14 24 Temple 12.35 75.14 11.88 41 Memphis 5.10 44.74 5.57 55 Houston 4.07 -5.45 2.45 84 Tulane -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 93 South Florida -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 94 East Carolina -11.77 15.08 -7.12 96 SMU -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 101 Navy -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 105 Tulsa -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 130 Connecticut -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 ACC 2 Clemson 32.88 248.04 33.95 29 Miami (FL) 7.46 68.89 8.32 30 N.C. State 8.43 49.70 8.03 39 Syracuse 7.11 21.88 5.80 49 Georgia Tech 2.87 29.99 3.37 57 Pittsburgh 3.14 4.06 2.29 62 Boston Coll. 3.57 -15.91 1.61 63 Virginia 1.83 7.89 1.60 82 Duke -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 90 Wake Forest -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 95 Florida St. -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 98 Virginia Tech -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 99 North Carolina -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 126 Louisville -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 B1G 4 Michigan 22.12 200.75 24.48 7 Ohio St. 17.12 152.37 18.80 11 Penn St. 17.13 99.04 16.22 19 Iowa 14.51 84.01 13.75 32 Purdue 7.56 44.00 7.18 36 Wisconsin 5.20 68.22 6.77 38 Michigan St. 5.47 52.92 6.21 56 Nebraska -0.18 51.33 2.37 64 Minnesota 1.94 -0.24 1.28 65 Maryland 2.11 -3.14 1.26 67 Northwestern 2.79 -21.58 0.81 81 Indiana -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 115 Rutgers -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 117 Illinois -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.91 160.35 21.04 17 West Virginia 15.23 101.18 15.06 35 Texas 8.10 29.96 6.85 40 Iowa St. 7.24 18.77 5.74 43 Oklahoma St. 4.82 40.35 5.17 54 Texas Tech 2.58 18.21 2.60 66 TCU -0.69 27.38 0.86 85 Baylor -5.34 4.58 -3.34 88 Kansas St. -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 100 Kansas -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 CUSA 33 North Texas 6.06 64.41 7.16 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 44 Marshall 5.18 27.66 4.80 46 Florida Atlantic 1.28 77.64 4.62 50 Middle Tenn. St. 4.04 10.67 3.21 60 Southern Miss -1.06 52.88 1.86 77 Florida Intl. 0.15 -38.12 -1.75 91 Louisiana Tech -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 107 West. Kentucky -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 124 UTEP -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 127 Rice -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 Indies 9 Notre Dame 17.43 116.20 17.25 26 Army 12.21 65.97 11.34 47 BYU 3.16 45.29 4.30 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 129 New Mexico St. -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 MAC 23 Ohio 12.27 84.20 12.26 34 Buffalo 6.52 55.45 7.04 58 Miami (OH) 2.60 8.77 2.16 61 Toledo 4.02 -17.45 1.83 70 East. Michigan 0.39 -1.29 0.20 79 Northern Illinois -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 83 W. Michigan -7.04 31.35 -3.17 103 Ball St. -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 113 Akron -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 119 Cent. Michigan -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 120 Bowling Green -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 122 Kent St. -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 MWC 13 Fresno St. 16.93 86.80 15.49 15 Boise St. 15.13 104.23 15.14 21 Utah St. 16.63 50.92 13.55 59 Air Force 0.65 31.81 1.97 73 Wyoming -0.77 6.22 -0.21 75 San Diego St. -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 76 Nevada -2.99 10.84 -1.47 97 Hawaii -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 106 Colorado St. -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 108 UNLV -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 116 New Mexico -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 125 San Jose St. -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 P12 20 Washington St. 12.86 106.15 13.72 22 Utah 12.96 84.43 12.73 25 Washington 10.65 90.43 11.48 45 Stanford 7.29 -4.72 4.63 48 Oregon 4.52 15.51 3.77 52 Arizona St. 3.68 13.72 3.12 69 Arizona -3.67 58.69 0.40 74 USC -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 78 California -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 80 UCLA -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 86 Colorado -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 123 Oregon St. -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 SBC 14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 53 Arkansas St. 1.44 40.64 2.93 68 Troy 1.35 -6.84 0.57 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 87 LA Lafayette -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 102 LA Monroe -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 SEC 1 Alabama 37.01 280.91 38.29 3 Georgia 25.14 172.21 25.11 6 Mississippi St. 18.35 150.92 19.55 10 Missouri 17.25 117.16 17.18 12 Texas A&M 12.95 146.44 15.73 18 LSU 14.68 93.08 14.30 27 Florida 10.68 71.15 10.57 28 Auburn 10.25 35.12 8.53 31 Kentucky 9.31 36.37 7.97 42 South Carolina 6.24 24.65 5.36 51 Vanderbilt 5.76 -14.31 3.15 72 Mississippi -3.38 48.55 0.10 89 Tennessee -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 104 Arkansas -12.59 -49.10 -10.77
  7. 1 point
    No movement in the top 4 although Clemson increased its lead over Bama a bit this week and the Frogs fell (only) 4 more spots to 47th, helped by outgaining Kansas by 200 yards despite losing. The largest faller this week in both ranking and score was Baylor, who dropped 26 spots in the ranking to 83rd. The biggest climber this week was Georgia Southern who beat DUSHEE darling Appalachian State and climbed 33 spots to 56th. TCU Week-by-Week The Kansas game looks bad, but maybe not as bad as you might imagine. The Frogs did almost 5 points worse against Kansas than their average opponent has but 115 yards better, making the Kansas game only the third worst on the season for the Frogs in DUSHEE score (behind OU and Texas). The SMU, Ohio State and Iowa State games still look like solid performances, although all of those games are getting awfully far away in the rearview mirror. Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex | ISU Ttech OU | @ Kan PD: 17.17 9.29 -9.86 | 7.00 2.50 -2.00 | -4.67 YD: 21.17 169.71 41.43 | 190.00 93.00 -101.29 | 115.17 Score: 12.46 14.33 -4.58 | 13.78 6.13 -6.19 | 2.41 TCU's Next Opponent (Kansas State) Kansas State has, if possible, been even more underwhelming than the Frogs. By far their best performance came against Oklahoma State in Week 7, a 31-12 whooping of the Fightin' Mullets, and in that game, K-State garnered a score 2 TDs better than any performance TCU has had this year. That said, their performances against their two toughest opponents, Mississippi State and Oklahoma, were 3 TDs worse than any performance TCU has had this year. Outside of Okie St. and UTSA, K-State has been a below average team, usually well-below average. Opp: MissSt UTSA WVU | Tex @ Bay OkSt | @ OU PD: -15.83 14.43 -13.40 | 1.57 -13.00 28.67 | -15.71 YD: -279.83 10.57 -60.00 | -102.57 -103.00 181.00 | -325.29 Score: -23.98 10.13 -11.81 | -3.87 -13.61 27.80 | -26.08 I find this difficult to type, but DUSHEE has TCU as a better than 2 TD favorite at home against the Fightin' Snyders, winning about 78% of the time. DUSHEE has K-State as only slightly better than Kansas. Of course, you see how well we did against the Jayhawks. Performances of the Week Top 3 45.78 -- Clemson at Florida St. (49 MOV, 277 YM) 43.66 -- West Virginia vs. Baylor (44 MOV, 281 YM) 42.96 -- Utah State vs. New Mexico (42 MOV, 413 YM) Bottom 3 -35.51 -- Ball St. vs. Ohio (-38 MOV, -312 YM) -33.84 -- New Mexico at Utah State (-42 MOV, -413 YM) -31.59 -- Baylor at WVU (-44 MOV, -281 YM) Conference Rankings SEC 11.53 B12 6.58 B10 6.37 ACC 3.23 P12 2.34 AAC -3.34 MWC -4.07 CUSA -6.78 MAC -7.56 SBC -9.10 Strength of Schedule Top 10 1 A&M 11.95 2 Mizz 11.87 3 Tenn 11.55 4 LSU 10.00 5 ISU 9.76 6 UCLA 9.05 7 TCU 8.59 8 MissSt 8.32 9 Neb 7.97 10 MichSt 7.87 Bottom 10 122 USU -7.08 123 USM -8.26 124 Troy -8.31 125 Mem -8.49 126 UCF -8.57 127 UTSA -9.24 128 Ohio -9.64 129 USF -10.15 130 FIU -10.16 131 TexSt -16.04 Overall Ratings Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson 37.86 301.37 39.70 0 0.21 2 Alabama 36.47 280.20 37.76 0 -0.99 3 Michigan 25.86 254.14 29.43 0 -0.12 4 Oklahoma 24.17 196.03 25.52 0 0.54 5 Georgia 23.95 126.58 22.04 2 2.19 6 LSU 23.19 118.33 21.14 -1 -1.58 7 Ohio St. 18.49 159.42 19.98 1 0.29 8 Iowa 17.78 140.03 18.57 2 -0.33 9 Penn St. 21.31 82.18 18.15 0 -1.15 10 Texas A&M 12.68 177.00 16.95 -4 -3.76 11 N.C. State 14.17 139.63 16.15 2 -1.83 12 North Texas 14.74 128.17 15.98 2 -1.67 13 Army 16.41 99.72 15.73 6 0.79 14 Missouri 15.39 110.54 15.56 -2 -2.61 15 Utah 14.93 106.17 15.05 6 0.61 16 Fresno St. 16.77 77.76 14.91 10 1.84 17 West Virginia 16.33 74.08 14.44 15 4.02 18 Notre Dame 15.39 84.80 14.33 2 -0.29 19 Iowa St. 12.59 116.88 14.00 10 2.23 20 Mississippi St. 12.57 106.69 13.50 4 -0.36 21 Temple 12.70 104.51 13.48 4 0.19 22 Utah St. 17.48 30.22 13.10 17 6.11 23 Appalachian State 14.35 72.33 13.04 -12 -5.54 24 Texas Tech 11.73 99.14 12.58 -2 -1.83 25 Purdue 12.95 81.15 12.52 -10 -4.07 26 Washington 11.23 103.14 12.43 -8 -3.17 27 Miami (FL) 10.89 101.57 12.14 -10 -3.92 28 Florida 13.63 62.88 12.10 -5 -1.92 29 Washington St. 9.98 111.54 12.01 -1 -0.45 30 UCF 14.32 50.52 11.97 0 1.40 31 Boise St. 11.00 92.59 11.78 0 1.31 32 Kentucky 12.24 73.72 11.70 -5 -1.25 33 Wisconsin 9.25 99.15 10.93 -17 -5.29 34 UAB 9.72 92.28 10.91 -1 1.18 35 Michigan St. 11.15 64.63 10.54 2 2.41 36 Cincinnati 7.83 55.08 7.87 0 -0.91 37 Boston Coll. 8.51 45.43 7.85 14 3.72 38 Houston 8.57 39.70 7.62 14 3.95 39 Texas 7.96 44.79 7.46 -5 -2.09 40 Buffalo 6.70 54.45 7.08 2 1.07 41 Auburn 6.83 40.09 6.48 0 0.21 42 Syracuse 6.89 34.44 6.24 7 1.48 43 Virginia 5.44 51.16 6.08 -5 -0.94 44 Maryland 6.42 37.15 6.06 2 0.53 45 South Carolina 5.68 46.06 6.00 -10 -3.28 46 Oklahoma St. 5.91 33.57 5.55 -1 -0.14 47 TCU 2.78 75.60 5.48 -4 -0.46 48 Stanford 8.76 -11.86 5.27 2 0.98 49 Mississippi 2.04 60.95 4.29 -1 -0.49 50 Georgia Tech 3.95 32.10 4.18 8 2.75 51 Ohio 3.30 23.28 3.32 29 7.11 52 Arizona St. 4.08 11.08 3.25 2 0.20 53 Northwestern 3.27 15.40 2.92 12 3.11 54 Minnesota 1.53 34.59 2.68 2 0.77 55 Nebraska -2.30 86.96 2.64 -2 -0.54 56 Georgia Southern 7.43 -58.11 2.16 33 7.91 57 USC 2.45 -0.89 1.59 4 0.58 58 Vanderbilt 4.73 -41.44 1.17 2 -0.14 59 Duke 4.40 -37.67 1.13 -12 -4.36 60 BYU 1.08 8.02 1.11 -1 -0.22 61 Colorado -1.52 35.38 0.69 -21 -5.60 62 Oregon -0.38 15.71 0.50 -18 -5.31 63 Arizona -2.87 47.64 0.38 28 6.54 64 San Diego St. -0.07 2.93 0.09 -1 -0.44 65 East. Michigan 1.69 -24.53 -0.05 -10 -2.00 66 Louisiana Tech 0.00 -11.20 -0.54 0 -0.15 67 UCLA -1.47 0.26 -0.97 -5 -1.73 68 Air Force -0.51 -16.85 -1.15 11 2.29 69 Tennessee -1.27 -6.29 -1.15 1 0.14 70 Southern Miss -8.02 87.23 -1.16 3 1.02 71 Pittsburgh 0.81 -41.32 -1.44 6 1.81 72 East Carolina -8.41 82.75 -1.64 -4 -0.95 73 Miami (OH) -2.36 -4.28 -1.78 -2 0.24 74 Indiana -4.63 17.37 -2.26 -10 -2.18 75 Marshall -0.75 -38.46 -2.35 0 0.14 76 Florida Intl. -0.08 -49.57 -2.43 8 2.25 77 Memphis -2.48 -26.13 -2.90 6 1.27 78 Troy -3.09 -27.22 -3.37 -2 -0.15 79 Liberty -4.00 -16.93 -3.48 -1 -0.10 80 Toledo -0.59 -73.02 -3.89 16 3.97 81 Florida Atlantic -6.38 6.43 -3.94 5 1.07 82 Arkansas St. -5.97 -0.08 -3.99 -10 -1.88 83 Baylor -4.84 -17.39 -4.06 -26 -5.77 84 Wyoming -4.67 -19.76 -4.06 4 1.38 85 LA Lafayette -5.69 -8.56 -4.21 2 0.88 86 California -6.19 -6.50 -4.44 6 2.78 87 W. Michigan -7.49 8.68 -4.58 -18 -3.73 88 Virginia Tech -3.88 -46.90 -4.84 -21 -4.28 89 Northern Illinois -3.74 -63.22 -5.53 -8 -1.57 90 Tulane -5.47 -39.62 -5.55 5 2.07 91 Kansas St. -1.90 -97.02 -5.92 -17 -3.51 92 Nevada -5.08 -54.32 -5.99 1 1.37 93 Arkansas -8.73 -4.85 -6.05 -8 -1.36 94 Florida St. -6.60 -35.74 -6.12 -12 -2.16 95 Middle Tenn. St. -2.89 -98.68 -6.66 7 3.82 96 South Florida -6.13 -56.39 -6.79 -2 0.61 97 UNC-Charlotte -10.79 -5.11 -7.44 2 1.17 98 North Carolina -13.19 -1.77 -8.88 0 -0.54 99 Kansas -5.96 -110.72 -9.29 2 -0.32 100 Ball St. -9.67 -66.63 -9.65 -10 -3.72 101 SMU -8.89 -87.36 -10.12 8 3.44 102 Wake Forest -9.21 -85.05 -10.22 3 1.79 103 Tulsa -11.25 -69.58 -10.84 -3 -2.06 104 Hawaii -10.30 -92.44 -11.30 2 1.19 105 New Mexico -9.34 -109.23 -11.47 -8 -3.33 106 Navy -9.86 -108.53 -11.78 -2 -0.18 107 Coastal Carolina -11.93 -82.03 -11.89 1 1.20 108 Colorado St. -17.04 -45.54 -13.55 -5 -3.01 109 Akron -11.62 -126.64 -13.82 3 1.90 110 Cent. Michigan -15.03 -86.50 -14.17 -3 -1.30 111 West. Kentucky -16.30 -88.83 -15.13 -1 -0.82 112 Louisville -17.13 -110.36 -16.72 -1 -2.36 113 Oregon St. -18.81 -106.54 -17.65 9 5.04 114 UTEP -17.42 -132.01 -17.95 5 2.81 115 Georgia State -18.42 -119.67 -18.02 2 1.50 116 Old Dominion -19.53 -115.67 -18.57 -3 -1.91 117 Massachusetts -17.19 -149.77 -18.64 -1 0.28 118 LA Monroe -19.76 -120.05 -18.93 0 1.04 119 UNLV -18.05 -159.43 -19.68 -4 -1.57 120 South Alabama -20.10 -143.10 -20.26 0 1.38 121 Illinois -16.94 -189.58 -20.39 -7 -3.28 122 San Jose St. -20.29 -166.35 -21.51 3 2.97 123 Rice -22.24 -148.85 -21.97 3 3.69 124 Rutgers -21.51 -170.86 -22.54 0 0.94 125 Kent St. -22.13 -175.50 -23.18 -2 0.23 126 UT-San Antonio -20.89 -203.12 -23.67 -5 -1.16 127 Bowling Green -26.64 -139.53 -24.45 0 1.81 128 New Mexico St. -24.67 -175.01 -24.84 1 3.08 129 Texas St. -23.15 -211.50 -25.58 -1 2.17 130 Connecticut -26.77 -281.79 -31.37 0 -0.43 By Conference AAC 21 Temple 12.70 104.51 13.48 30 UCF 14.32 50.52 11.97 36 Cincinnati 7.83 55.08 7.87 38 Houston 8.57 39.70 7.62 72 East Carolina -8.41 82.75 -1.64 77 Memphis -2.48 -26.13 -2.90 90 Tulane -5.47 -39.62 -5.55 96 South Florida -6.13 -56.39 -6.79 101 SMU -8.89 -87.36 -10.12 103 Tulsa -11.25 -69.58 -10.84 106 Navy -9.86 -108.53 -11.78 130 Connecticut -26.77 -281.79 -31.37 ACC 1 Clemson 37.86 301.37 39.70 11 N.C. State 14.17 139.63 16.15 27 Miami (FL) 10.89 101.57 12.14 37 Boston Coll. 8.51 45.43 7.85 42 Syracuse 6.89 34.44 6.24 43 Virginia 5.44 51.16 6.08 50 Georgia Tech 3.95 32.10 4.18 59 Duke 4.40 -37.67 1.13 71 Pittsburgh 0.81 -41.32 -1.44 88 Virginia Tech -3.88 -46.90 -4.84 94 Florida St. -6.60 -35.74 -6.12 98 North Carolina -13.19 -1.77 -8.88 102 Wake Forest -9.21 -85.05 -10.22 112 Louisville -17.13 -110.36 -16.72 B1G 3 Michigan 25.86 254.14 29.43 7 Ohio St. 18.49 159.42 19.98 8 Iowa 17.78 140.03 18.57 9 Penn St. 21.31 82.18 18.15 25 Purdue 12.95 81.15 12.52 33 Wisconsin 9.25 99.15 10.93 35 Michigan St. 11.15 64.63 10.54 44 Maryland 6.42 37.15 6.06 53 Northwestern 3.27 15.40 2.92 54 Minnesota 1.53 34.59 2.68 55 Nebraska -2.30 86.96 2.64 74 Indiana -4.63 17.37 -2.26 121 Illinois -16.94 -189.58 -20.39 124 Rutgers -21.51 -170.86 -22.54 BXII-II 4 Oklahoma 24.17 196.03 25.52 17 West Virginia 16.33 74.08 14.44 19 Iowa St. 12.59 116.88 14.00 24 Texas Tech 11.73 99.14 12.58 39 Texas 7.96 44.79 7.46 46 Oklahoma St. 5.91 33.57 5.55 47 TCU 2.78 75.60 5.48 83 Baylor -4.84 -17.39 -4.06 91 Kansas St. -1.90 -97.02 -5.92 99 Kansas -5.96 -110.72 -9.29 CUSA 12 North Texas 14.74 128.17 15.98 34 UAB 9.72 92.28 10.91 66 Louisiana Tech 0.00 -11.20 -0.54 70 Southern Miss -8.02 87.23 -1.16 75 Marshall -0.75 -38.46 -2.35 76 Florida Intl. -0.08 -49.57 -2.43 81 Florida Atlantic -6.38 6.43 -3.94 95 Middle Tenn. St. -2.89 -98.68 -6.66 97 UNC-Charlotte -10.79 -5.11 -7.44 111 West. Kentucky -16.30 -88.83 -15.13 114 UTEP -17.42 -132.01 -17.95 116 Old Dominion -19.53 -115.67 -18.57 123 Rice -22.24 -148.85 -21.97 126 UT-San Antonio -20.89 -203.12 -23.67 Indies 13 Army 16.41 99.72 15.73 18 Notre Dame 15.39 84.80 14.33 60 BYU 1.08 8.02 1.11 79 Liberty -4.00 -16.93 -3.48 117 Massachusetts -17.19 -149.77 -18.64 128 New Mexico St. -24.67 -175.01 -24.84 MAC 40 Buffalo 6.70 54.45 7.08 51 Ohio 3.30 23.28 3.32 65 East. Michigan 1.69 -24.53 -0.05 73 Miami (OH) -2.36 -4.28 -1.78 80 Toledo -0.59 -73.02 -3.89 87 W. Michigan -7.49 8.68 -4.58 89 Northern Illinois -3.74 -63.22 -5.53 100 Ball St. -9.67 -66.63 -9.65 109 Akron -11.62 -126.64 -13.82 110 Cent. Michigan -15.03 -86.50 -14.17 125 Kent St. -22.13 -175.50 -23.18 127 Bowling Green -26.64 -139.53 -24.45 MWC 16 Fresno St. 16.77 77.76 14.91 22 Utah St. 17.48 30.22 13.10 31 Boise St. 11.00 92.59 11.78 64 San Diego St. -0.07 2.93 0.09 68 Air Force -0.51 -16.85 -1.15 84 Wyoming -4.67 -19.76 -4.06 92 Nevada -5.08 -54.32 -5.99 104 Hawaii -10.30 -92.44 -11.30 105 New Mexico -9.34 -109.23 -11.47 108 Colorado St. -17.04 -45.54 -13.55 119 UNLV -18.05 -159.43 -19.68 122 San Jose St. -20.29 -166.35 -21.51 P12 15 Utah 14.93 106.17 15.05 26 Washington 11.23 103.14 12.43 29 Washington St. 9.98 111.54 12.01 48 Stanford 8.76 -11.86 5.27 52 Arizona St. 4.08 11.08 3.25 57 USC 2.45 -0.89 1.59 61 Colorado -1.52 35.38 0.69 62 Oregon -0.38 15.71 0.50 63 Arizona -2.87 47.64 0.38 67 UCLA -1.47 0.26 -0.97 86 California -6.19 -6.50 -4.44 113 Oregon St. -18.81 -106.54 -17.65 SBC 23 Appalachian State 14.35 72.33 13.04 56 Georgia Southern 7.43 -58.11 2.16 78 Troy -3.09 -27.22 -3.37 82 Arkansas St. -5.97 -0.08 -3.99 85 LA Lafayette -5.69 -8.56 -4.21 107 Coastal Carolina -11.93 -82.03 -11.89 115 Georgia State -18.42 -119.67 -18.02 118 LA Monroe -19.76 -120.05 -18.93 120 South Alabama -20.10 -143.10 -20.26 129 Texas St. -23.15 -211.50 -25.58 SEC 2 Alabama 36.47 280.20 37.76 5 Georgia 23.95 126.58 22.04 6 LSU 23.19 118.33 21.14 10 Texas A&M 12.68 177.00 16.95 14 Missouri 15.39 110.54 15.56 20 Mississippi St. 12.57 106.69 13.50 28 Florida 13.63 62.88 12.10 32 Kentucky 12.24 73.72 11.70 41 Auburn 6.83 40.09 6.48 45 South Carolina 5.68 46.06 6.00 49 Mississippi 2.04 60.95 4.29 58 Vanderbilt 4.73 -41.44 1.17 69 Tennessee -1.27 -6.29 -1.15 93 Arkansas -8.73 -4.85 -6.05
  8. 1 point
    I figure interest in this blog is niche at best, even when the Frogs are playing well. So I assume at this point, I'm just writing this for myself. But nonetheless, for this week's entry in the second saddest diary ever written (allowing that Anne Frank's is probably still a little sadder) ... Clemson reclaims the top spot in the rankings, but it really is just Clemson, Bama, and the rest of the field at this point. There is an almost 10-point gap between those two teams and 3rd ranked Michigan. The Sooners rose to the 4th spot in the rankings, due mostly to Ohio State and Penn State falling significantly. A team I'd like to focus on this week is USF, which if DUSHEE is any judge, may be the worst 7-0 team in the history of major college football. After beating the lowest-ranked DUSHEE team, UConn, by only a TD, DUSHEE now has Charlie Strong's Bulls ranked 94th. That "win" garnered USF a DUSHEE score of -31.40 for the week. When combined with playing the second easiest schedule in FBS ... USF's opponents are, on average, almost 2TDs worse than an average FBS team ... Georgia Tech (ranked 58th), Illinois (114), East Carolina (68), UMass (116), Tulsa (100), UConn (130) ... and only beating that ridiculously easy schedule by an average of 8-points, USF appears to be a paper tiger of the highest order. Things start getting a little tougher for the Bulls next week with @Houston (52), Tulane (95), @Cincinnati (36), @Temple (25), and UCF (30) ... the remaining 5 games include the 4 best teams in the American as rated by DUSHEE. (Although DUSHEE thinks UCF is extremely overrated too, just not as much as USF.) The only one of those 5 games where USF should be favored is the game at home against Tulane and DUSHEE expects the Bulls to be heavy underdogs for all of the other 4 (best chance of winning is 23% at Houston this week). DUSHEE gives USF an 0.05% chance of going undefeated through those 5 games. Frogs Because DUSHEE has OU still very highly rated and had little expectation that the Frogs would be competitive, the Frogs didn't really drop as much as you might think, falling four spots to 43rd. The Frogs week-to-week look like this now: Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex | ISU Ttech OU PD: 15.80 9.29 -8.50 | 6.00 5.40 -4.33 YD: 20.40 169.71 64.17 | 192.00 118.20 -150.83 Score: 11.51 14.34 -2.58 | 13.22 9.28 -10.13 So it was actually a pretty decent week in the moral victory department for the Frogs. While the performance against OU was judged the worst of the season, and the walloping that Purdue put on Ohio State really dropped the Frogs' comparative score against the Buckeyes a ton, the wins against SMU and Iowa State are looking solid at this point, and even the loss to Tech looks pretty decent with Tech's excellent play of late. As of this moment, only the Texas and Oklahoma games look like total turds. Believe it or not (I expect most will not), DUSHEE has the Frogs as favorites for 4 of the remaining 5 games: @Kansas +12 (67% chance Frogs win) Kansas St. +12.5 (72%) @West Virginia -7.5 (34%) @Baylor +0.5 (51%) Oklahoma St. +4 (56%) As of now, the Frogs have played the 4th toughest schedule in FBS, according to DUSHEE. Although, that will take a hit this week as the Frogs play ... Frogs Next Opponent (Kansas) Playing Kansas is generally the salve that calms troubled football teams, but God knows that has rarely been the case for the Frogs. After showing some signs early in the season that the Jayhawks might have improved a little this season (ignoring Nichols St., as DUSHEE does), Kansas has returned to form of late, and seems to be in turmoil after dumping Meachem. Hopefully, the Frogs take care of business as they did last year. As mentioned above, DUSHEE has the Frogs as 12-point favorites on the road. Opp: @ CMU Rut @ Bay | OkSt @ WVU @ Ttech PD: 12.33 25.57 -25.40 | -16.80 -4.25 -29.40 YD: 18.67 148.71 -154.00 | -194.40 -205.00 -207.00 Score: 9.12 24.19 -24.33 | -20.54 -12.68 -29.54 So after looking like a reasonable football team against two other really bad teams (CMU and Rutgers), Kansas has returned to form in conference play, getting pounded by everybody by at least 3 TDs. Top Performances of the Week 50.70 Clemson vs. NC-State (34 MOV, 174 YM) 46.46 Missouri vs. Memphis (32 MOV, 238 YM) 46.02 Purdue vs. Ohio St. (29 MOV, -7 YM) Bottom Performances of the Week -50.46 Oregon St. vs. Cal (-42 MOV, -298 YM) -38.55 Bowling Green at Ohio (-35 MOV, -283 YM) -36.11 Minnesota at Nebraska (-25 MOV, -185 YM) Conference Ratings SEC 12.62 B12 7.31 B10 7.01 ACC 3.85 P12 2.30 AAC -4.04 MWC -4.91 CUSA -7.60 MAC -7.89 SBC -9.95 Overall Rankings Week 8 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson 36.58 314.39 39.49 1 0.66 2 Alabama 37.21 290.28 38.75 -1 -0.44 3 Michigan 26.00 254.44 29.55 0 0.81 4 Oklahoma 24.62 178.43 24.98 2 0.07 5 LSU 24.63 131.21 22.72 2 -0.78 6 Texas A&M 16.18 206.57 20.71 5 0.88 7 Georgia 21.43 115.93 19.85 3 -0.44 8 Ohio St. 18.19 157.38 19.68 -3 -6.82 9 Penn St. 22.64 87.45 19.30 -5 -8.44 10 Iowa 18.09 142.36 18.90 7 2.50 11 Appalachian State 19.41 117.35 18.57 -3 -4.64 12 Missouri 16.51 149.15 18.17 15 6.05 13 N.C. State 15.92 153.32 17.98 -4 -4.77 14 North Texas 16.73 135.10 17.64 2 1.11 15 Purdue 16.65 114.46 16.60 19 6.92 16 Wisconsin 15.02 129.11 16.21 2 -0.06 17 Miami (FL) 13.91 141.25 16.06 3 0.68 18 Washington 14.74 120.29 15.61 3 1.08 19 Army 16.36 83.93 14.94 -7 -2.77 20 Notre Dame 16.28 78.38 14.62 -1 -1.17 21 Utah 13.76 109.67 14.44 4 2.12 22 Texas Tech 14.00 105.65 14.41 1 1.43 23 Florida 15.51 76.82 14.03 -9 -2.87 24 Mississippi St. 13.34 103.37 13.86 -9 -2.78 25 Temple 12.57 102.30 13.29 -3 -0.17 26 Fresno St. 14.64 68.91 13.07 6 2.89 27 Kentucky 14.71 65.49 12.95 -14 -4.01 28 Washington St. 9.21 131.52 12.46 5 2.30 29 Iowa St. 10.92 93.52 11.77 0 0.12 30 UCF 12.71 43.55 10.57 1 0.04 31 Boise St. 9.39 87.61 10.47 9 2.03 32 West Virginia 12.52 43.16 10.42 -8 -1.90 33 UAB 8.69 81.99 9.73 15 4.76 34 Texas 9.71 63.99 9.55 -8 -2.75 35 South Carolina 8.95 69.01 9.28 6 1.29 36 Cincinnati 9.36 52.69 8.77 9 2.79 37 Michigan St. 9.00 44.23 8.13 -7 -3.10 38 Virginia 7.14 47.03 7.02 6 0.84 39 Utah St. 13.46 -41.28 6.99 -11 -4.70 40 Colorado 4.83 63.86 6.29 -3 -2.45 41 Auburn 6.70 37.48 6.27 10 1.55 42 Buffalo 5.66 46.50 6.01 8 1.23 43 TCU 3.94 68.94 5.94 -4 -2.65 44 Oregon 5.21 48.58 5.80 13 2.55 45 Oklahoma St. 6.44 29.24 5.70 1 -0.26 46 Maryland 5.70 36.17 5.54 -11 -4.04 47 Duke 9.69 -20.27 5.49 -9 -3.15 48 Mississippi 2.57 63.73 4.78 5 0.69 49 Syracuse 5.23 26.57 4.76 7 1.42 50 Stanford 9.00 -35.66 4.29 -1 -0.52 51 Boston Coll. 5.91 3.92 4.13 -8 -2.30 52 Houston 5.03 6.44 3.66 0 -0.43 53 Nebraska -1.85 91.83 3.18 13 3.85 54 Arizona St. 4.20 5.30 3.05 -12 -3.61 55 East. Michigan 3.47 -7.49 1.95 16 3.79 56 Minnesota 1.61 17.43 1.91 -20 -7.64 57 Baylor 0.69 25.97 1.71 -2 -1.67 58 Georgia Tech 0.90 17.28 1.43 1 -0.81 59 BYU 2.20 -2.97 1.33 5 1.57 60 Vanderbilt 4.85 -40.07 1.31 3 1.18 61 USC 2.11 -8.27 1.01 -14 -4.17 62 UCLA 0.81 4.56 0.76 -1 -0.15 63 San Diego St. 1.94 -15.93 0.53 -9 -3.32 64 Indiana -3.13 41.77 -0.08 12 2.96 65 Northwestern -0.03 -3.64 -0.19 -5 -1.81 66 Louisiana Tech 0.36 -12.95 -0.39 -8 -3.52 67 Virginia Tech 1.38 -30.86 -0.56 0 0.81 68 East Carolina -7.30 87.00 -0.69 9 2.41 69 W. Michigan -4.08 38.94 -0.85 6 1.81 70 Tennessee -1.56 -5.18 -1.29 0 0.53 71 Miami (OH) -2.36 -9.41 -2.03 13 3.06 72 Arkansas St. -4.15 13.67 -2.11 0 -0.24 73 Southern Miss -7.48 58.57 -2.17 12 2.99 74 Kansas St. 0.52 -57.40 -2.41 -5 -0.75 75 Marshall -0.77 -41.13 -2.49 3 0.73 76 Troy -3.85 -13.53 -3.22 11 2.60 77 Pittsburgh -1.68 -44.43 -3.25 -3 -0.95 78 Liberty -3.60 -20.37 -3.38 -5 -1.45 79 Air Force -2.24 -40.41 -3.44 0 0.40 80 Ohio -3.14 -35.34 -3.79 13 4.42 81 Northern Illinois -2.62 -46.01 -3.96 8 2.70 82 Florida St. -3.78 -29.94 -3.96 6 2.43 83 Memphis -3.80 -34.23 -4.18 -18 -3.93 84 Florida Intl. -2.64 -60.81 -4.68 8 2.65 85 Arkansas -7.53 6.99 -4.69 1 1.12 86 Florida Atlantic -7.05 -6.61 -5.02 -6 -0.50 87 LA Lafayette -5.96 -23.14 -5.08 11 4.65 88 Wyoming -5.63 -35.14 -5.44 12 5.65 89 Georgia Southern -0.45 -113.54 -5.75 2 1.24 90 Ball St. -6.39 -34.65 -5.93 -9 -1.15 91 Arizona -9.90 9.08 -6.17 -1 0.76 92 California -9.48 -18.83 -7.22 15 5.42 93 Nevada -7.86 -44.29 -7.37 10 4.50 94 South Florida -7.66 -47.96 -7.41 -26 -5.81 95 Tulane -7.00 -61.53 -7.62 -33 -7.88 96 Toledo -4.71 -98.34 -7.86 -1 1.52 97 New Mexico -7.07 -71.29 -8.14 -3 0.10 98 North Carolina -13.96 20.06 -8.34 8 4.24 99 UNC-Charlotte -12.86 -0.77 -8.61 -3 0.79 100 Tulsa -9.72 -47.95 -8.78 -17 -3.89 101 Kansas -6.32 -98.84 -8.96 -19 -4.10 102 Middle Tenn. St. -8.87 -95.11 -10.48 0 1.15 103 Colorado St. -14.33 -20.53 -10.54 1 1.44 104 Navy -10.00 -102.82 -11.60 4 2.10 105 Wake Forest -11.40 -91.91 -12.01 -6 -1.49 106 Hawaii -11.60 -99.05 -12.49 -5 -1.39 107 Cent. Michigan -13.95 -74.36 -12.87 -10 -3.46 108 Coastal Carolina -13.66 -83.04 -13.10 1 1.19 109 SMU -12.48 -109.22 -13.56 -4 -1.16 110 West. Kentucky -15.39 -84.42 -14.31 1 0.97 111 Louisville -13.93 -105.65 -14.36 1 1.73 112 Akron -13.34 -142.16 -15.72 -2 -0.54 113 Old Dominion -16.53 -117.56 -16.67 4 3.10 114 Illinois -13.28 -171.87 -17.11 1 0.87 115 UNLV -15.29 -164.86 -18.11 1 0.47 116 Massachusetts -17.06 -157.26 -18.92 3 3.59 117 Georgia State -19.65 -133.58 -19.52 -4 -2.97 118 LA Monroe -21.01 -124.09 -19.97 7 4.97 119 UTEP -20.68 -145.07 -20.75 1 2.40 120 South Alabama -20.38 -167.69 -21.64 -2 -0.57 121 UT-San Antonio -20.07 -190.28 -22.52 1 0.97 122 Oregon St. -25.50 -118.57 -22.69 -8 -5.81 123 Kent St. -22.30 -177.94 -23.41 1 1.22 124 Rutgers -22.78 -172.50 -23.47 -1 0.55 125 San Jose St. -24.29 -172.59 -24.48 2 3.21 126 Rice -25.90 -174.78 -25.66 0 1.83 127 Bowling Green -28.38 -152.84 -26.26 -6 -2.84 128 Texas St. -25.68 -221.20 -27.74 0 1.49 129 New Mexico St. -26.85 -208.74 -27.92 0 2.39 130 Connecticut -26.78 -272.45 -30.94 0 3.58 Rankings By Conference AAC 25 Temple 12.57 102.30 13.29 30 UCF 12.71 43.55 10.57 36 Cincinnati 9.36 52.69 8.77 52 Houston 5.03 6.44 3.66 68 East Carolina -7.30 87.00 -0.69 83 Memphis -3.80 -34.23 -4.18 94 South Florida -7.66 -47.96 -7.41 95 Tulane -7.00 -61.53 -7.62 100 Tulsa -9.72 -47.95 -8.78 104 Navy -10.00 -102.82 -11.60 109 SMU -12.48 -109.22 -13.56 130 Connecticut -26.78 -272.45 -30.94 ACC 1 Clemson 36.58 314.39 39.49 13 N.C. State 15.92 153.32 17.98 17 Miami (FL) 13.91 141.25 16.06 38 Virginia 7.14 47.03 7.02 47 Duke 9.69 -20.27 5.49 49 Syracuse 5.23 26.57 4.76 51 Boston Coll. 5.91 3.92 4.13 58 Georgia Tech 0.90 17.28 1.43 67 Virginia Tech 1.38 -30.86 -0.56 77 Pittsburgh -1.68 -44.43 -3.25 82 Florida St. -3.78 -29.94 -3.96 98 North Carolina -13.96 20.06 -8.34 105 Wake Forest -11.40 -91.91 -12.01 111 Louisville -13.93 -105.65 -14.36 B1G 3 Michigan 26.00 254.44 29.55 8 Ohio St. 18.19 157.38 19.68 9 Penn St. 22.64 87.45 19.30 10 Iowa 18.09 142.36 18.90 15 Purdue 16.65 114.46 16.60 16 Wisconsin 15.02 129.11 16.21 37 Michigan St. 9.00 44.23 8.13 46 Maryland 5.70 36.17 5.54 53 Nebraska -1.85 91.83 3.18 56 Minnesota 1.61 17.43 1.91 64 Indiana -3.13 41.77 -0.08 65 Northwestern -0.03 -3.64 -0.19 114 Illinois -13.28 -171.87 -17.11 124 Rutgers -22.78 -172.50 -23.47 BXII-II 4 Oklahoma 24.62 178.43 24.98 22 Texas Tech 14.00 105.65 14.41 29 Iowa St. 10.92 93.52 11.77 32 West Virginia 12.52 43.16 10.42 34 Texas 9.71 63.99 9.55 43 TCU 3.94 68.94 5.94 45 Oklahoma St. 6.44 29.24 5.70 57 Baylor 0.69 25.97 1.71 74 Kansas St. 0.52 -57.40 -2.41 101 Kansas -6.32 -98.84 -8.96 CUSA 14 North Texas 16.73 135.10 17.64 33 UAB 8.69 81.99 9.73 66 Louisiana Tech 0.36 -12.95 -0.39 73 Southern Miss -7.48 58.57 -2.17 75 Marshall -0.77 -41.13 -2.49 84 Florida Intl. -2.64 -60.81 -4.68 86 Florida Atlantic -7.05 -6.61 -5.02 99 UNC-Charlotte -12.86 -0.77 -8.61 102 Middle Tenn. St. -8.87 -95.11 -10.48 110 West. Kentucky -15.39 -84.42 -14.31 113 Old Dominion -16.53 -117.56 -16.67 119 UTEP -20.68 -145.07 -20.75 121 UT-San Antonio -20.07 -190.28 -22.52 126 Rice -25.90 -174.78 -25.66 Indies 19 Army 16.36 83.93 14.94 20 Notre Dame 16.28 78.38 14.62 59 BYU 2.20 -2.97 1.33 78 Liberty -3.60 -20.37 -3.38 116 Massachusetts -17.06 -157.26 -18.92 129 New Mexico St. -26.85 -208.74 -27.92 MAC 42 Buffalo 5.66 46.50 6.01 55 East. Michigan 3.47 -7.49 1.95 69 W. Michigan -4.08 38.94 -0.85 71 Miami (OH) -2.36 -9.41 -2.03 80 Ohio -3.14 -35.34 -3.79 81 Northern Illinois -2.62 -46.01 -3.96 90 Ball St. -6.39 -34.65 -5.93 96 Toledo -4.71 -98.34 -7.86 107 Cent. Michigan -13.95 -74.36 -12.87 112 Akron -13.34 -142.16 -15.72 123 Kent St. -22.30 -177.94 -23.41 127 Bowling Green -28.38 -152.84 -26.26 MWC 26 Fresno St. 14.64 68.91 13.07 31 Boise St. 9.39 87.61 10.47 39 Utah St. 13.46 -41.28 6.99 63 San Diego St. 1.94 -15.93 0.53 79 Air Force -2.24 -40.41 -3.44 88 Wyoming -5.63 -35.14 -5.44 93 Nevada -7.86 -44.29 -7.37 97 New Mexico -7.07 -71.29 -8.14 103 Colorado St. -14.33 -20.53 -10.54 106 Hawaii -11.60 -99.05 -12.49 115 UNLV -15.29 -164.86 -18.11 125 San Jose St. -24.29 -172.59 -24.48 P12 18 Washington 14.74 120.29 15.61 21 Utah 13.76 109.67 14.44 28 Washington St. 9.21 131.52 12.46 40 Colorado 4.83 63.86 6.29 44 Oregon 5.21 48.58 5.80 50 Stanford 9.00 -35.66 4.29 54 Arizona St. 4.20 5.30 3.05 61 USC 2.11 -8.27 1.01 62 UCLA 0.81 4.56 0.76 91 Arizona -9.90 9.08 -6.17 92 California -9.48 -18.83 -7.22 122 Oregon St. -25.50 -118.57 -22.69 SBC 11 Appalachian State 19.41 117.35 18.57 72 Arkansas St. -4.15 13.67 -2.11 76 Troy -3.85 -13.53 -3.22 87 LA Lafayette -5.96 -23.14 -5.08 89 Georgia Southern -0.45 -113.54 -5.75 108 Coastal Carolina -13.66 -83.04 -13.10 117 Georgia State -19.65 -133.58 -19.52 118 LA Monroe -21.01 -124.09 -19.97 120 South Alabama -20.38 -167.69 -21.64 128 Texas St. -25.68 -221.20 -27.74 SEC 2 Alabama 37.21 290.28 38.75 5 LSU 24.63 131.21 22.72 6 Texas A&M 16.18 206.57 20.71 7 Georgia 21.43 115.93 19.85 12 Missouri 16.51 149.15 18.17 23 Florida 15.51 76.82 14.03 24 Mississippi St. 13.34 103.37 13.86 27 Kentucky 14.71 65.49 12.95 35 South Carolina 8.95 69.01 9.28 41 Auburn 6.70 37.48 6.27 48 Mississippi 2.57 63.73 4.78 60 Vanderbilt 4.85 -40.07 1.31 70 Tennessee -1.56 -5.18 -1.29 85 Arkansas -7.53 6.99 -4.69
  9. 1 point
    Alabama retakes the top spot this week, but the Tide and Clemson have emerged as the clear top 2 with a bunch of B1G teams filling out the rest of the top 5. Yes, two-loss Penn State is still in the top 5, but they did have the second biggest single score drop of the week (Georgia dropped slightly more), falling over 10 points; the way the numbers worked out, however, they just dropped one spot, getting leapt by Michigan. Oklahoma did very well against the bye, jumping 2 spots and increasing their score by 2.5 points. We'll discuss how that happened when we look at Oklahoma's numbers in the 'TCU's next opponent' section. Frogs Week-by-Week The Frogs fell 5 spots to 39th, even though their score dropped less than a point. They fell because a lot of teams just under them jumped with strong performances: Duke, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan St., and Iowa State all leapt the Frogs. Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex | ISU Ttech PD: 11.25 17.67 -8.50 | 6.00 -0.50 YD: -13.75 199.33 64.17 | 192.00 80.00 Score: 6.82 21.58 -2.51 | 13.44 3.60 Due to Iowa State's recent performance, our win against them, while visually ugly, is actually starting to look pretty good comparatively. The Tech loss was rated as mediocre as you might imagine and by far our best performance is still that loss to Ohio State. The Frogs are ranked 47th in the country in point differential, but 20th in yardage differential. This disparity is largely explained by the turnover situation with which we are all too aware. The Frogs have moved the ball on opponents like a top-20 team, but they sure haven't scored like one. Two pieces of potential solace for Frog fans are 1) neglecting the Southern matchup which is ignored by DUSHEE, the Frogs have the 6th toughest schedule in the country right now, and 2) of the 6 remaining Big 12 games left on our schedule, 4 are against teams actually ranked lower than the Frogs. So we have that going for us, which is nice. Missouri has had the toughest schedule according to DUSHEE. Frogs Next Opponent -- Oklahoma The Sooners have climbed to 6th in the rankings, despite the Texas loss. Here are their numbers to date: Opp: FAU UCLA @ ISU | Army Bay N Tex PD: 50.00 21.60 14.40 | 24.80 37.00 5.50 YD: 379.00 33.00 133.20 | 80.20 242.00 94.50 Score: 51.96 16.02 16.15 | 20.48 36.56 8.31 So the Texas game was definitely a dud for the Sooners (and the 'N' stands for 'neutral site', not 'North', for clarification), but outside of that game (Texas seems to have gotten the worst shot out of several of their opponents this year), the Sooners have been pretty impressive this year. The Army game, which everyone thought was a bad performance for the Sooners, was actually pretty good as the Cadets have far exceeded anybody's expectations and are ranked 12th in DUSHEE Original (and 20th even in DUSHEE Extra Crispy with the added emphasis on schedule strength). As mentioned above, the Sooners fared well during the bye, improving 2.5 points despite sitting at home. This was due to UCLA getting a blowout win over Cal, Iowa State whipping WVU, and Army blowing out SJfSU. Baylor and Texas played each other so that was a wash for the Sooners. The Sooners comparative performances against those 3 opponents all got big boosts this week. Against common opponents, the Sooners were about 3 points better than the Frogs against Iowa State ... but if you account for the fact that Oklahoma played the Cyclones in Ames and the Frogs got them in Ft. Worth, the Sooners were about 11 points better than the Frogs against Iowa State on a neutral field. The Sooners were about 11 points better than the Frogs against Texas, but again taking into account the fact that the Frogs played Texas in Austin and Oklahoma played them at a neutral site, the Sooners were about a touchdown better against the Horns. All that said, the Frogs are heavy underdogs to the Sooners ... 12 points, even after giving the Frogs a 4.2 point home field advantage (the current calculated number for the season). If this game were in Norman, the Frogs would be 3 TD dogs. DUSHEE gives the Frogs about a 27% chance of winning. Conference Rankings The Big XII-II still ranks second among the conferences, about a half point better (on average) than the B1G. SEC 12.48 BXII-ii 8.56 B1G 7.97 ACC 3.89 P12 2.51 AAC -3.01 MWC -5.85 MAC -8.87 CUSA -8.98 SBC -10.73 Top Performances of the Week 48.72 -- Iowa St vs. WVU (16 MOV, 346 YM) 46.95 -- LSU vs. UGa (20 MOV, 153 YM) 43.98 -- Alabama vs. Mizzou (29 MOV, 352 YM) Bottom Performances of the Week -56.00 -- New Mexico St. at Louisiana-Lafayette (-28 MOV, -353 YM) -43.52 -- Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana-Monroe (-25 MOV, -27 YM) -41.66 -- Western Kentucky at UNC-Charlotte (-26 MOV, -192 YM) Overall Rankings Week 7 Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama 37.23 292.39 39.19 1 1.02 2 Clemson 34.97 315.62 38.83 -1 -1.92 3 Michigan 25.69 236.27 28.74 3 2.58 4 Penn St. 30.65 148.43 27.73 -1 -10.17 5 Ohio St. 25.91 187.61 26.50 0 -4.01 6 Oklahoma 25.55 160.32 24.91 2 2.53 7 LSU 24.55 145.18 23.50 8 5.30 8 Appalachian State 23.96 147.25 23.21 -1 -2.91 9 N.C. State 21.28 174.28 22.75 0 0.85 10 Georgia 21.14 126.18 20.30 -6 -10.56 11 Texas A&M 14.72 203.75 19.83 3 0.92 12 Army 19.39 97.35 17.71 7 1.35 13 Kentucky 18.34 96.31 16.96 5 -0.13 14 Florida 18.62 91.31 16.90 8 1.28 15 Mississippi St. 16.93 108.96 16.64 9 3.24 16 North Texas 15.93 120.40 16.54 11 4.70 17 Iowa 15.74 120.15 16.40 0 -0.84 18 Wisconsin 14.83 129.85 16.27 -5 -3.64 19 Notre Dame 17.81 79.64 15.79 -8 -5.09 20 Miami (FL) 12.81 139.15 15.38 0 -0.77 21 Washington 13.93 106.53 14.53 11 4.23 22 Temple 12.68 101.93 13.46 1 -2.06 23 Texas Tech 11.80 103.88 12.97 -11 -7.03 24 West Virginia 14.25 57.43 12.32 -14 -9.44 25 Utah 13.61 65.94 12.31 14 5.05 26 Texas 12.14 85.58 12.30 2 0.98 27 Missouri 10.35 106.18 12.12 -11 -5.25 28 Utah St. 17.39 1.97 11.69 8 2.50 29 Iowa St. 10.85 89.90 11.65 15 6.03 30 Michigan St. 10.95 79.80 11.22 10 4.36 31 UCF 11.78 54.26 10.52 4 1.27 32 Fresno St. 11.12 56.18 10.18 5 1.49 33 Washington St. 6.18 122.83 10.16 -4 -0.67 34 Purdue 7.74 91.82 9.67 14 4.54 35 Maryland 9.30 68.64 9.57 -4 -0.88 36 Minnesota 10.16 56.49 9.55 7 3.22 37 Colorado 7.08 81.72 8.74 -7 -1.98 38 Duke 14.12 -15.76 8.64 4 2.21 39 TCU 5.18 104.35 8.59 -5 -0.67 40 Boise St. 5.81 92.83 8.44 -15 -4.01 41 South Carolina 7.60 59.55 7.99 -20 -7.99 42 Arizona St. 7.82 29.47 6.66 -4 -1.89 43 Boston Coll. 8.14 20.40 6.43 2 0.87 44 Virginia 5.13 56.08 6.17 -3 -0.52 45 Cincinnati 7.21 23.92 5.98 7 2.30 46 Oklahoma St. 6.43 34.03 5.96 -20 -6.09 47 USC 3.66 55.77 5.18 7 1.92 48 UAB 2.75 63.82 4.97 29 8.90 49 Stanford 9.26 -27.76 4.81 2 0.82 50 Buffalo 4.07 41.92 4.78 10 2.56 51 Auburn 4.98 28.40 4.71 -18 -5.49 52 Houston 5.46 9.17 4.09 -6 -1.34 53 Mississippi 1.48 62.99 4.08 -6 -1.10 54 San Diego St. 4.94 11.34 3.85 -5 -0.57 55 Baylor 2.52 34.52 3.38 0 0.40 56 Syracuse 4.40 8.41 3.35 2 0.76 57 Oregon 3.29 21.53 3.25 -4 -0.13 58 Louisiana Tech 2.79 25.83 3.13 13 4.68 59 Georgia Tech 1.68 22.90 2.24 -2 -0.38 60 Northwestern 2.09 4.40 1.61 -4 -1.01 61 UCLA 1.15 2.96 0.91 6 2.19 62 Tulane 1.42 -13.86 0.27 3 0.43 63 Vanderbilt 3.74 -48.10 0.13 -13 -4.05 64 BYU 0.51 -11.84 -0.24 11 2.91 65 Memphis 0.10 -6.48 -0.25 24 6.30 66 Nebraska -6.71 77.27 -0.68 -7 -3.03 67 Virginia Tech 0.85 -39.40 -1.37 -6 -3.53 68 South Florida -0.96 -19.56 -1.60 -6 -3.31 69 Kansas St. 1.33 -51.93 -1.67 12 2.92 70 Tennessee -2.52 -2.79 -1.82 -7 -3.16 71 East. Michigan -1.63 -15.18 -1.84 12 2.87 72 Arkansas St. -4.68 25.58 -1.86 0 0.11 73 Liberty -1.70 -16.16 -1.93 9 2.74 74 Pittsburgh -1.33 -28.83 -2.30 -4 -0.80 75 W. Michigan -6.98 40.54 -2.66 -9 -1.96 76 Indiana -5.38 11.25 -3.04 -12 -3.00 77 East Carolina -8.86 57.18 -3.09 -1 0.18 78 Marshall -3.03 -24.30 -3.22 14 3.54 79 Air Force -1.05 -63.81 -3.84 1 0.70 80 Florida Atlantic -5.75 -13.88 -4.52 -6 -1.70 81 Ball St. -4.19 -40.35 -4.78 -12 -3.31 82 Kansas -1.59 -77.26 -4.86 -14 -3.52 83 Tulsa -4.57 -37.60 -4.90 1 0.19 84 Miami (OH) -5.37 -30.56 -5.09 11 2.93 85 Southern Miss -9.30 21.11 -5.16 12 3.63 86 Arkansas -9.64 12.59 -5.81 2 0.55 87 Troy -6.80 -26.10 -5.82 3 0.74 88 Florida St. -6.50 -41.94 -6.40 -2 -0.21 89 Northern Illinois -4.59 -73.08 -6.65 10 4.57 90 Arizona -10.89 6.89 -6.92 -12 -2.90 91 Georgia Southern -1.83 -117.38 -6.99 -12 -2.55 92 Florida Intl. -3.92 -95.99 -7.33 -7 -1.64 93 Ohio -6.23 -82.53 -8.21 -2 -1.55 94 New Mexico -5.99 -86.33 -8.23 -21 -6.03 95 Toledo -6.37 -104.37 -9.38 7 2.43 96 UNC-Charlotte -11.75 -31.89 -9.40 18 9.93 97 Cent. Michigan -9.26 -65.86 -9.41 8 4.21 98 LA Lafayette -10.75 -52.13 -9.73 14 7.19 99 Wake Forest -9.66 -83.12 -10.53 -1 -0.36 100 Wyoming -10.83 -78.76 -11.09 -6 -3.51 101 Hawaii -9.17 -101.35 -11.10 -8 -4.22 102 Middle Tenn. St. -11.22 -84.37 -11.63 2 0.71 103 Nevada -12.87 -66.96 -11.87 8 4.71 104 Colorado St. -14.10 -52.52 -11.98 2 1.92 105 SMU -11.53 -95.90 -12.40 -5 -1.00 106 North Carolina -19.35 6.43 -12.58 2 2.80 107 California -15.33 -49.27 -12.64 -20 -6.42 108 Navy -11.59 -121.52 -13.70 2 2.00 109 Coastal Carolina -15.46 -80.97 -14.29 -6 -2.46 110 Akron -11.85 -148.08 -15.18 5 4.24 111 West. Kentucky -16.66 -84.95 -15.28 -15 -7.23 112 Louisville -15.62 -115.52 -16.09 -5 -1.95 113 Georgia State -15.88 -121.29 -16.55 0 1.76 114 Oregon St. -19.94 -73.01 -16.88 -5 -1.25 115 Illinois -13.82 -178.36 -17.98 -14 -6.45 116 UNLV -17.01 -147.26 -18.58 0 1.17 117 Old Dominion -18.45 -151.84 -19.76 1 1.62 118 South Alabama -19.89 -158.76 -21.07 1 1.57 119 Massachusetts -18.69 -204.50 -22.51 6 4.00 120 UTEP -22.20 -169.93 -23.15 0 -0.13 121 Bowling Green -26.38 -118.70 -23.42 6 5.03 122 UT-San Antonio -21.61 -184.59 -23.48 0 0.27 123 Rutgers -23.27 -173.16 -24.02 -2 -0.64 124 Kent St. -23.26 -185.63 -24.63 -7 -3.42 125 LA Monroe -24.99 -168.45 -24.94 3 5.76 126 Rice -28.60 -171.32 -27.49 -3 -3.35 127 San Jose St. -27.03 -196.81 -27.69 -3 -2.13 128 Texas St. -27.69 -219.15 -29.24 2 11.88 129 New Mexico St. -28.53 -229.87 -30.32 -3 -3.56 130 Connecticut -30.97 -282.32 -34.52 -1 -1.56 Rankings by Conference AAC 22 Temple 12.68 101.93 13.46 31 UCF 11.78 54.26 10.52 45 Cincinnati 7.21 23.92 5.98 52 Houston 5.46 9.17 4.09 62 Tulane 1.42 -13.86 0.27 65 Memphis 0.10 -6.48 -0.25 68 South Florida -0.96 -19.56 -1.60 77 East Carolina -8.86 57.18 -3.09 83 Tulsa -4.57 -37.60 -4.90 105 SMU -11.53 -95.90 -12.40 108 Navy -11.59 -121.52 -13.70 130 Connecticut -30.97 -282.32 -34.52 ACC 2 Clemson 34.97 315.62 38.83 9 N.C. State 21.28 174.28 22.75 20 Miami (FL) 12.81 139.15 15.38 38 Duke 14.12 -15.76 8.64 43 Boston Coll. 8.14 20.40 6.43 44 Virginia 5.13 56.08 6.17 56 Syracuse 4.40 8.41 3.35 59 Georgia Tech 1.68 22.90 2.24 67 Virginia Tech 0.85 -39.40 -1.37 74 Pittsburgh -1.33 -28.83 -2.30 88 Florida St. -6.50 -41.94 -6.40 99 Wake Forest -9.66 -83.12 -10.53 106 North Carolina -19.35 6.43 -12.58 112 Louisville -15.62 -115.52 -16.09 B1G 3 Michigan 25.69 236.27 28.74 4 Penn St. 30.65 148.43 27.73 5 Ohio St. 25.91 187.61 26.50 17 Iowa 15.74 120.15 16.40 18 Wisconsin 14.83 129.85 16.27 30 Michigan St. 10.95 79.80 11.22 34 Purdue 7.74 91.82 9.67 35 Maryland 9.30 68.64 9.57 36 Minnesota 10.16 56.49 9.55 60 Northwestern 2.09 4.40 1.61 66 Nebraska -6.71 77.27 -0.68 76 Indiana -5.38 11.25 -3.04 115 Illinois -13.82 -178.36 -17.98 123 Rutgers -23.27 -173.16 -24.02 BXII-II 6 Oklahoma 25.55 160.32 24.91 23 Texas Tech 11.80 103.88 12.97 24 West Virginia 14.25 57.43 12.32 26 Texas 12.14 85.58 12.30 29 Iowa St. 10.85 89.90 11.65 39 TCU 5.18 104.35 8.59 46 Oklahoma St. 6.43 34.03 5.96 55 Baylor 2.52 34.52 3.38 69 Kansas St. 1.33 -51.93 -1.67 82 Kansas -1.59 -77.26 -4.86 CUSA 16 North Texas 15.93 120.40 16.54 48 UAB 2.75 63.82 4.97 58 Louisiana Tech 2.79 25.83 3.13 78 Marshall -3.03 -24.30 -3.22 80 Florida Atlantic -5.75 -13.88 -4.52 85 Southern Miss -9.30 21.11 -5.16 92 Florida Intl. -3.92 -95.99 -7.33 96 UNC-Charlotte -11.75 -31.89 -9.40 102 Middle Tenn. St. -11.22 -84.37 -11.63 111 West. Kentucky -16.66 -84.95 -15.28 117 Old Dominion -18.45 -151.84 -19.76 120 UTEP -22.20 -169.93 -23.15 122 UT-San Antonio -21.61 -184.59 -23.48 126 Rice -28.60 -171.32 -27.49 Indies 12 Army 19.39 97.35 17.71 19 Notre Dame 17.81 79.64 15.79 64 BYU 0.51 -11.84 -0.24 73 Liberty -1.70 -16.16 -1.93 119 Massachusetts -18.69 -204.50 -22.51 129 New Mexico St. -28.53 -229.87 -30.32 MAC 50 Buffalo 4.07 41.92 4.78 71 East. Michigan -1.63 -15.18 -1.84 75 W. Michigan -6.98 40.54 -2.66 81 Ball St. -4.19 -40.35 -4.78 84 Miami (OH) -5.37 -30.56 -5.09 89 Northern Illinois -4.59 -73.08 -6.65 93 Ohio -6.23 -82.53 -8.21 95 Toledo -6.37 -104.37 -9.38 97 Cent. Michigan -9.26 -65.86 -9.41 110 Akron -11.85 -148.08 -15.18 121 Bowling Green -26.38 -118.70 -23.42 124 Kent St. -23.26 -185.63 -24.63 MWC 28 Utah St. 17.39 1.97 11.69 32 Fresno St. 11.12 56.18 10.18 40 Boise St. 5.81 92.83 8.44 54 San Diego St. 4.94 11.34 3.85 79 Air Force -1.05 -63.81 -3.84 94 New Mexico -5.99 -86.33 -8.23 100 Wyoming -10.83 -78.76 -11.09 101 Hawaii -9.17 -101.35 -11.10 103 Nevada -12.87 -66.96 -11.87 104 Colorado St. -14.10 -52.52 -11.98 116 UNLV -17.01 -147.26 -18.58 127 San Jose St. -27.03 -196.81 -27.69 P12 21 Washington 13.93 106.53 14.53 25 Utah 13.61 65.94 12.31 33 Washington St. 6.18 122.83 10.16 37 Colorado 7.08 81.72 8.74 42 Arizona St. 7.82 29.47 6.66 47 USC 3.66 55.77 5.18 49 Stanford 9.26 -27.76 4.81 57 Oregon 3.29 21.53 3.25 61 UCLA 1.15 2.96 0.91 90 Arizona -10.89 6.89 -6.92 107 California -15.33 -49.27 -12.64 114 Oregon St. -19.94 -73.01 -16.88 SBC 8 Appalachian State 23.96 147.25 23.21 72 Arkansas St. -4.68 25.58 -1.86 87 Troy -6.80 -26.10 -5.82 91 Georgia Southern -1.83 -117.38 -6.99 98 LA Lafayette -10.75 -52.13 -9.73 109 Coastal Carolina -15.46 -80.97 -14.29 113 Georgia State -15.88 -121.29 -16.55 118 South Alabama -19.89 -158.76 -21.07 125 LA Monroe -24.99 -168.45 -24.94 128 Texas St. -27.69 -219.15 -29.24 SEC 1 Alabama 37.23 292.39 39.19 7 LSU 24.55 145.18 23.50 10 Georgia 21.14 126.18 20.30 11 Texas A&M 14.72 203.75 19.83 13 Kentucky 18.34 96.31 16.96 14 Florida 18.62 91.31 16.90 15 Mississippi St. 16.93 108.96 16.64 27 Missouri 10.35 106.18 12.12 41 South Carolina 7.60 59.55 7.99 51 Auburn 4.98 28.40 4.71 53 Mississippi 1.48 62.99 4.08 63 Vanderbilt 3.74 -48.10 0.13 70 Tennessee -2.52 -2.79 -1.82 86 Arkansas -9.64 12.59 -5.81
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