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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/17/2018 in Blog Entries

  1. 2 points
    Duquesne Frog

    2018 DUSHEE Wrap-up

    It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season. DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done. The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread. And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening lines set back in early December. Here is how the models did: Model SU ATS DUSHEE O 19 - 19 20 - 18 DUSHEE XC 18 - 20 18 - 20 Sagarin 19 - 19 27 - 11 SRS 19 - 19 25 - 13 Vegas 15 - 23 If you bet using Sagarin or SRS, you made out pretty well during bowl season. If you used DUSHEE, well, let me reiterate that gambling is a vice and the author does not promote or encourage sports betting of any kind. Now my high school football coaches, forever wise, once taught me that excuses are like assholes and elbows ... everybody's got them and mine stink. I'm not sure why my elbows smelled so badly, but I can nonetheless offer a few qualitative reasons for why the bowls are hard to pick. One, in the modern era where NFL hopefuls sit out the bowls, it is easy to argue that not all the teams have the same talent level they had when their regular season performance was measured. One can imagine a way of trying to account for this similar to the WAR metric used in baseball, but ain't nobody got time for that. West Virginia and Michigan both took pretty big hits to their personnel so it was quite predictable they would underperform compared to the regular season. Two, is impossible to quantify the motivation teams have going into exhibition games that the CFP has probably made even less relevant than they used to be. I mean, OBVIOUSLY the SEC was totally not into their games against opponents from all those other slummy conferences ... All of that said, Sagarin and SRS also were only accounting for regular season performance and they did quite well picking winners against the spread. But then, DUSHEE did quite well during the regular season. And DUSHEE has done much better in other bowl seasons. So I'm going to dismiss this bowl season as a fluke. Dealers' prerogative ... Best and Worst Bowl Performances Top 6 59.87 Army vs. Houston 52.38 Texas A&M vs. NC State 52.37 Auburn vs. Purdue 51.88 Clemson vs. Alabama 51.38 Utah State vs. N. Texas 49.09 Clemson vs. Notre Dame I posted the top 6 just to show how friggin' impressive Clemson was in the two playoff games, averaging 50 point better than an average team against, supposedly, two of the four best teams in the country. Bottom 3 -46.27 Purdue vs. Auburn -43.17 Houston vs. Army -39.03 Temple vs. Duke Conference Ratings The Big XII-II leapt back over the B1G as the second best conference in college football, after what was by all accounts a pretty mediocre year for the conference. Despite the relatively poor bowl showing, the SEC is still well ahead of everybody else. The only reason why the ACC had a positive number was because Clemson was in the conference, otherwise the conference only marginally better than the MWC. And the American ends up behind the Mountain West as the best "Group of 5." Please change your marketing campaign, American Athletic Conference ... SEC 10.19 B12 3.94 B10 3.58 ACC 1.41 P12 0.65 MWC -2.60 AAC -4.87 CUSA -5.98 SBC -6.41 MAC -6.43 Final Overall Ratings Post-Bowl Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 1 2.11 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 -1 -2.44 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 0 -3.11 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 0 -2.84 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 0 0.07 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 0 -0.03 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 0 -1.02 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 4 2.57 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 3.23 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 8 1.91 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 -2 -1.63 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 1 -0.01 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 1 -0.03 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 -3 -0.87 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 -7 -3.38 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 1 0.71 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 -7 -2.44 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 10 4.33 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 -4 -1.68 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 -1 -0.46 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 -5 -1.89 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 1 0.57 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 1 0.43 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 3 1.39 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 -5 -1.84 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 4 3.19 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 -2 -1.84 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 7 2.21 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 -7 -3.45 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 4 1.06 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 0 -0.32 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 4 1.18 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 5 0.63 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 7 0.97 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 -9 -5.33 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 10 1.77 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 0 -0.36 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 -9 -2.51 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 4 0.10 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 -1 -1.08 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 -9 -2.13 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 16 1.63 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 2 -0.88 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 7 0.45 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 -5 -2.41 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 -13 -4.10 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 -5 -2.20 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 -1 -1.03 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 -1 -1.09 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 2 -0.49 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 2 -0.08 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 13 1.40 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 6 0.26 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 -10 -2.38 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 1 -0.26 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 7 0.40 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 3 0.11 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 -1 -0.55 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 -5 -0.78 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 8 1.28 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 23 4.32 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 -12 -2.20 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 -14 -2.32 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 -9 -1.50 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 2 0.26 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 5 0.50 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 -5 -1.16 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 -2 -0.27 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 -5 -0.74 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 0 -0.12 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 -2 -0.81 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 1 -0.22 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 -1 -0.84 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 4 0.55 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 -1 -0.77 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 -1 -1.18 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 0 -0.57 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 -17 -4.15 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 6 1.07 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 -1 -0.49 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 8 1.67 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 5 1.20 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 -7 -1.35 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 -4 -0.65 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 -3 -0.74 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 5 1.63 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 -1 -0.49 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 0 -0.29 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 3 1.41 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 -9 -2.48 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 -1 -0.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 -9 -2.42 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 1 -0.03 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 -1 -1.06 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 4 -0.34 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 4 -0.17 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 0 -0.87 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 -3 -1.68 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 2 0.24 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 -2 -1.18 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 -5 -1.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 0 -0.75 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46 0 -0.40 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 1 -0.80 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 2 0.37 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 -2 -1.66 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 -1 0.13 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 0 -0.21 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 3 0.68 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 -1 -0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 0 -0.51 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 -2 -0.85 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 1 0.06 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 2 0.22 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 -2 -0.35 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 -1 -0.32 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 0 -0.12 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 0 -0.23 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 0 -0.63 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 0 -0.55 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 0 -0.03 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 0 -0.21 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 2 0.05 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 0 -0.31 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 -2 -0.67 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 1 -0.37 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 -1 -0.87 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 0 0.09 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 0 0.52 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 0 -0.90 By Conference AAC 15 UCF 17.93 61.56 14.93 21 Cincinnati 11.90 97.98 12.67 35 Temple 7.01 25.27 5.89 47 Memphis 3.20 13.44 2.78 78 Houston -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 82 Tulane -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 98 South Florida -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 100 Navy -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 101 SMU -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 104 Tulsa -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 106 East Carolina -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 130 Connecticut -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 ACC 1 Clemson 35.47 262.13 36.32 29 N.C. State 7.83 72.62 8.73 33 Syracuse 8.23 23.92 6.64 38 Miami (FL) 4.67 53.72 5.71 42 Virginia 4.08 20.27 3.70 55 Pittsburgh 2.35 8.36 1.97 61 Duke 2.30 -11.77 0.96 62 Georgia Tech 0.33 14.09 0.90 64 Boston Coll. 2.76 -21.81 0.79 81 Wake Forest -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 89 Virginia Tech -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 94 Florida St. -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 95 North Carolina -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 127 Louisville -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 B1G 4 Michigan 18.94 183.43 21.49 7 Ohio St. 16.89 141.68 18.11 14 Penn St. 15.47 96.83 15.00 20 Iowa 14.37 73.48 13.13 28 Wisconsin 7.27 82.38 8.83 37 Michigan St. 4.60 54.94 5.72 46 Purdue 3.48 12.33 2.91 52 Minnesota 3.33 3.47 2.39 58 Nebraska -0.77 45.03 1.67 65 Northwestern 2.93 -27.52 0.62 69 Maryland 1.26 -8.90 0.41 84 Indiana -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 116 Rutgers -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 118 Illinois -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma 19.63 157.55 20.71 19 West Virginia 12.96 93.55 13.16 30 Texas 8.67 41.63 7.80 34 Iowa St. 6.97 37.11 6.44 39 Oklahoma St. 5.20 30.41 4.94 59 Texas Tech 1.51 12.97 1.64 68 TCU -0.96 22.43 0.45 79 Baylor -4.33 9.21 -2.44 88 Kansas St. -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 96 Kansas -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 CUSA 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 41 North Texas 4.08 45.21 4.90 43 Florida Atlantic -0.01 72.62 3.50 44 Marshall 2.80 33.07 3.46 48 Middle Tenn. St. 2.13 23.66 2.56 56 Southern Miss -1.09 54.96 1.93 74 Florida Intl. 0.20 -31.34 -1.38 86 Louisiana Tech -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 105 West. Kentucky -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 124 UTEP -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 126 Rice -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 Indies 11 Notre Dame 15.97 98.58 15.41 18 Army 14.97 79.70 13.84 36 BYU 4.47 58.39 5.80 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 129 New Mexico St. -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 MAC 22 Ohio 12.81 84.73 12.63 40 Buffalo 4.72 36.44 4.91 57 Miami (OH) 2.31 7.75 1.91 67 Toledo 3.02 -31.75 0.48 73 East. Michigan -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 83 Northern Illinois -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 92 W. Michigan -9.27 12.76 -5.56 102 Ball St. -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 115 Akron -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 119 Cent. Michigan -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 120 Bowling Green -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 122 Kent St. -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 MWC 9 Utah St. 19.53 75.39 16.67 12 Boise St. 15.15 106.73 15.26 13 Fresno St. 16.65 85.75 15.24 53 Air Force 0.85 32.07 2.12 72 Wyoming -1.23 2.89 -0.68 76 San Diego St. -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 77 Nevada -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 97 Hawaii -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 107 Colorado St. -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 108 UNLV -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 114 New Mexico -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 123 San Jose St. -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 P12 23 Washington 11.03 105.02 12.43 25 Washington St. 11.78 79.28 11.68 27 Utah 9.90 66.97 9.84 49 Oregon 3.67 0.85 2.49 50 Arizona St. 3.30 5.87 2.48 54 Stanford 5.48 -32.83 2.07 71 Arizona -4.60 50.71 -0.62 75 USC -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 80 California -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 85 UCLA -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 87 Colorado -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 125 Oregon St. -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 SBC 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 51 Arkansas St. 0.04 50.07 2.45 60 Troy 2.27 1.76 1.60 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 90 LA Lafayette -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 99 LA Monroe -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 SEC 2 Alabama 33.01 259.46 34.55 3 Georgia 22.37 165.34 22.91 6 Mississippi St. 17.35 157.05 19.16 8 Texas A&M 15.46 160.18 18.05 10 LSU 15.13 115.89 15.69 17 Missouri 13.59 106.57 14.21 24 Florida 12.27 78.59 11.98 26 Auburn 12.69 57.28 11.23 31 Kentucky 9.29 30.33 7.66 45 South Carolina 4.16 7.72 3.15 63 Vanderbilt 3.22 -26.28 0.88 70 Mississippi -3.70 49.63 -0.07 91 Tennessee -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 103 Arkansas -13.51 -50.63 -11.46
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