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  • Blog Entries

    • By FrogAbroad in FrogAblog 2
      This was a joke told many years ago by Will Rogers which I borrowed and turned into a poem.  I now post it to FrogAblog, and dedicate it to Baylor administrators, coaches and fans.
       
                                                      When A Feller Oughta Keep Quiet
       
      Let me tell you `bout a mountain lion a `way out in th' west.
      When it come to killin' cows an' sheep, why, he must've been th' best.
      A reg'lar varmint legend of widespread renown,
      He was the scourge of ranchers for a'hunnerd miles around.
       
       
       
      While passin' through a cattle ranch he killed hisself a bull,
      He ate an' ate, an' stuffed hisself until he was plumb full!
      Then to celebrate th' feast, or maybe cuz he was bored,
      That fat ol' mountain lion rared back and roared…an' roared…an' roared!
       
       
       
      Now all the caterwaulin' that th' mountain lion had done
      Caught the ear of a passin' cowboy, who pulled out his trusty gun.
      He took his aim.his shot was true.an' to that cat's su'prise,
      Th' cowboy shot hisself a lion! Smack between th' eyes!
       
       
       
       
      So the moral to my story, with no "if" "and" or "but,"
      Is when a feller's full o' bull. he'd best keep his mouth shut!
       
       
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 2
      In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.
       
      A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success had by the Killer Frogs of the mid-1980s.  But that pinnacle consisted of a single NCAA tournament bid, followed by an unceremonious 1st round exit at the hands of a 12-seed Florida State team, and two NIT bids.
       
      The Frogs have made the NCAA tournament seven times (1952, 1953, 1959, 1968, 1971, 1987, and 1998), but four of those times were in the 1950's and 60's, when the NCAA tournament was arguably less prestigious than the NIT. The 1953, 1968 and 1971 teams were 16-9, 15-11 and 15-12, respectively.
       
      This season was the Frogs' seventh NIT bid (1983, 1986, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2017).
       
      Then there were all the years in between.  Since 1950, the Frogs have had 19 seasons of single digit wins
       
      So how special was the 2017 Frogs NIT run in the program's history?  How does it compare to the other teams in the conference and in the state?  Just how dismal has TCU basketball been otherwise?
       
      To assess this, I went to College Basketball Reference and used their SRS metric (Simple Rating System), which uses a similar approach as DUSHEE, to plot team performance as a function of time.  SRS, like DUSHEE, provides a relative performance compared to an average team (SRS = 0).  College Basketball reference only has SRS calculated back to the 1949-1950 season. 
       
      Then, in addition to a marker for each team's performance in a given year, I plotted a 5-year moving average (MAV) for each team as an indicator of program strength during the time the senior class was at the school.  Thus the MAV value in a given year, say 2000, is the average SRS score of the 1995-1996, 1996-1997,1997-1998, 1998-1999, and 1999-2000 seasons.  By following the MAV curve, you can qualitatively assess when a program is ascendant, declining, or keeping performance level.  Because I'm plotting the MAV in the last year of the 5-year envelope, it will often appear that the MAV is lagging the actual year-to-year performance.
       
      Texas Schools:

       
      This plot is the collective basketball history of most of the Texas D-1 schools since 1950, the bold purple line showing TCU's MAV.  From 1955 until 1984, TCU was a below average D-1 program during that three decade period.  For a 5-year stretch in the late 1970's, TCU and Rice needed binoculars to be able to see the rest of the state; and the rest of the state, particularly outside of Houston and UTEP, wasn't all that spectacular.  That's just how bad TCU was during that stretch.
       
      But the Frogs did become sharply ascendant during the end of that period, becoming solidly middle-of-the-pack in the state in the late 1980s (Jamie Dixon's tenure as a player) before a slow decline through the mid-1990s.  Then Tubbs made the program sharply ascendant again, briefly challenging Tom Penders' UT teams as the best program in the state before another steady decline into another decade of mediocrity from 2005-2015.
       
      But if you look at the tip of that peak during the Tubbs' era, and look for the little purple triangles that mark the year-to-year SRS scores for TCU around that peak, you can see that the peak is largely driven by one single year, the 1997-1998 NCAA team.  Based on the SRS metric, that team had the highest score of any team in the state from 1985 forward, and behind only the 1968 and 1983 Houston teams since 1950.  Also note that this past season's TCU team has the second highest SRS score of any TCU team, the only other TCU team to exceed a single season SRS over 15.
       
      Houston and UTEP dominated the state from the mid-1960s until almost the mid-1990s, when Texas became the most consistently high-performing team in the conference, which it held until about 2012.  SMU showed some early dominance in the 1950s and Baylor has emerged the top power in the state over the last few years.
       
      Southwest Conference:

       
      This chart has a lot of the same data as the previous chart, but includes only the SWC teams for the years in which the teams were actually in the conference.  So Tech arrives in 1961, Houston doesn't arrive until 1977, and Arkansas, which wasn't included in the previous figure, disappears after 1992, four years before everybody else disappears.  Perhaps the most interesting thing to note here is how awful a basketball conference the SWC was during most of the 1960s and 1970s.  From 1968-1973, there was not a single SWC program with an above-average SRS 5-year MAV.  And even into the 1980s, only the addition of Houston and the ascendancy of Nolan Richardson's Hogs made the conference look halfway respectable.  Arkansas left on a very high note; its 1990-1991 team had, by far, the highest SRS score (27.3) in the conference from 1950 on.
       
      WAC/MWC:

       
      As we all remember, after the demise of the SWC, we joined the new and "improved" 16-team WAC, which shortly after we joined broke apart into the MWC and the Leftovers WAC.  This hybrid chart shows all the teams that were in the WAC prior to the MWC split and then the teams that joined the WAC after the split; thus after 1998, this chart shows all the teams in both conferences.  Thus TCU shows up twice, from 1996-1997 through 2000-2001 as a part of the WAC, and then from 2005-2006 through 2011-2012 as a part of the MWC.  The "WAC Folds" line marks when the WAC ceased to exist as a football conference; I recognize that the WAC still has life as a basketball conference, but a man only has so much time to account for so many basketball teams.  Note that during this time, while Utah, Tulsa, BYU, UNLV, UNM, and Fresno all vied for the best program in these conferences, the 1997-1998 TCU team has the highest single season SRS score.  In fact, even if you take the WAC back to it's predecessor days (next chart), that TCU team had the highest SRS in conference history, dating back to 1950.  Higher than Rick Majerus', Keith Van Horn-led, Final Four Utes, higher than Bill Self's best Tulsa team.
       

       
      Conference USA/American Athletic:

       
      This chart, like the WAC/MWC one, shows multiple related conferences on one chart; the teams that formed the original CUSA, the core of which formed the eventual American Athletic Conference, leaving behind a gutted and transformed CUSA.  I didn't try to add all the new teams in the modern CUSA.  This conference was always dominated by three teams, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis.  TCU was already on the way down from their 1998 peak and was never really a factor in this conference.
       
      Big 7/8/XII/XII-II:

       
      Our current home.  TCU and Tech have battled for the cellar of the Big XII-II throughout our short time in the conference, but both teams appear to be sharply ascendant.  This chart goes a long way to show just how good a basketball conference this is right now.  Going back to the very first chart with all the Texas teams and the current TCU program is squarely middle-of-the-pack. In the Big XII-II, we are, by this metric, the worst team in the conference, and with Tech, the two worst programs by a significant margin.
       
      The other interesting thing to note, going back historically, is that from 1950 to 1980 or so, while Kansas was (with Kansas State) the best program in the conference, it was only by nature of a fairly weak conference.  Kansas really didn't become a true national power (by the SRS metric, at least) until it and (Billy Tubbs-led) Oklahoma began to rise in the late-1980s.  Then, unlike Oklahoma, Kansas has stayed at an elite level over the better part of the last three decades.  No one has really come close to Kansas' supremacy since OU's decline in the early-1990s.
       
      The best ever Big XII team based on SRS?  The 1987-1988 Oklahoma team coached by one Billy Tubbs.  The SRS metric seems to really like Billy, Chuck ...
       
      Completing TCU's basketball journey to date, let's take a look at some of the other major conferences' histories.
       
      Big East:

       
      I figured I'd start with our coach's old conference, to give a sense of what he and Ben Howland did with the Pitt program prior to coming to TCU.  The Big East formed as a basketball conference beginning with the 1979-1980 season with members from a number of other conferences.  At the time of its formation, Notre Dame (which didn't actually join the conference until a few years later), Syracuse, and Georgetown were the top teams until the mid-1990s.  At that point, UConn became and remained the top program in the conference until about 2005 when a bunch of teams, including Pitt (bold blue line), Louisville, Villanova, and WVU all reached about the same consistent level until the football schools all left the Big East after the 2012-2013 season.  Aside from a brief rise from 1985-1990, Pitt basketball had not been anything other than a pretty average program, and sometimes terrible (around 1970).
       
      PAC 12:

       
      Those John Wooden UCLA teams were pretty good.
       
      SEC:

       
      The late-2000s Florida team is the only program to be able to say it was clearly better than Kentucky over the last seven decades.
       
      ACC:

       
      The ACC started out as kinda a crappy basketball conference.  From 1970 on, however, pretty salty.
       
      B1G:

       
      Perhaps the most evenly competitive of all the major conferences. Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin , and even Purdue have all had at least a brief claim to be the best program in the conference.  Only Northwestern has been consistently mediocre over the last seven decades.
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 1

       
      This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking. 
       
      ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the difference in two teams' scores is effectively the point spread between the two teams.
       
      For 28 of the 39 bowl games, DUSHEE, Sagarin, FPI and Vegas come to a unanimous consensus about the favorite, although there can be considerable variation among the four as to the point spread.
       
      Since there are two formulations for DUSHEE, 1) the original which looks solely at point and yardage margins compared to how the other teams compared against the same opponent, and 2) the revised which deemphasizes statistical outliers and emphasizes strength-of-schedule, I'll provide numbers for both formulations and the average of the two to see how well each of the three predict outcomes.
       
      First, we'll start with the bowl our readers probably care about the most ... the Cactus Bowl.
       
      Liberty Bowl
       
      Just kidding.  The Liberty Bowl is one of the 11 bowl games where the 4 predictors do not come to a consensus and is one of two where the lack of consensus comes from the Vegas bookies.  Here are the numbers for the two teams:
       
      Team Record    DO    DR Sag FPI SoS Georgia  7-5 1.51 2.18 73.19 7.40 0.73 TCU  6-6 3.55 5.03 74.53 10.10 1.16  
      In the following table and all of the ones that follow, DO means DUSHEE Original Formulation, DR is DUSHEE Revised, DA is the average of the two DUSHEE models, Sag is Sagarin and FPI is, well, FPI.  Ignore the sign in front of the number; it is just used to account for which of the two teams is the favorite.
       
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI TCU  -2.04 TCU  -2.85 TCU  -2.44 Georgia  1 TCU  -1.34 TCU  -2.7  
      The "computer" models all agree that the Frogs are a slight favorite with Sagarin at roughly 1.5-points and DUSHEE Revised at almost 3-points.  However, Vegas, at the moment, has the Dawgs as a 1-point favorite.  As we will see, the agreement between the models (a range of less than 4-points between all of the predictors) is quite tight compared to some of the other games.
       
      New Years Six
       
      Orange:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Florida St.  9-3 15.99 21.43 87.35 21.50 5.55 Michigan  10-2 32.77 36.95 99.74 27.80 3.18 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Michigan  -16.79 Michigan  -15.52 Michigan  -16.15 Michigan  -6.5 Michigan  -12.39 Michigan  -6.3  
      The models are unanimous that Michigan is the favorite, but DUSHEE and Sagarin think Michigan is a significantly larger favorite than either Vegas or the FPI does.
       
      Peach:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Alabama  13-0 37.11 45.21 105.37 31.70 6.77 Washington  12-1 24.52 26.25 97.89 26.10 -0.22 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Alabama  12.60 Alabama  18.96 Alabama  15.78 Alabama  16.5 Alabama  7.48 Alabama  5.6  
      In this case, DUSHEE and Vegas are on the same page, placing Alabama as a 2TD+ favorite, but Sagarin and the FPI have the game at a TD or less.
       
      Fiesta:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Clemson  12-1 25.65 30.08 94.50 25.80 3.99 Ohio St.  11-1 34.82 40.78 102.06 28.10 5.37
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Ohio St.  -9.17 Ohio St.  -10.71 Ohio St.  -9.94 Ohio St.  -3 Ohio St.  -7.56 Ohio St.  -2.3  
      Like the Orange Bowl, DUSHEE and Sagarin agree that Ohio State is a 7-10 point favorite but Vegas and the FPI have the game around a field goal.
       
      Cotton:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS W. Michigan  13-0 17.94 15.09 84.62 13.00 -5.60 Wisconsin  10-3 17.82 22.13 90.62 17.80 5.14 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI W. Michigan  0.12 Wisconsin  -7.04 Wisconsin  -3.46 Wisconsin  -7.5 Wisconsin  -6.00 Wisconsin  -4.8  
      The Cotton Bowl illuminates the difference between the two DUSHEE formulations.  Western Michigan and Wisconsin have the biggest strength-of-schedule disparity of any two bowl opponents.  Original DUSHEE, which does account for strength of schedule but does not emphasize it to the degree that Revised DUSHEE does, has Western Michigan as an ever-so-slight favorite.  Revised DUSHEE, Sagarin, and Vegas all have Wisconsin at about a TD favorite, with the FPI putting the game a little closer.  This will be an interesting game to see play out.
       
      Rose:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Penn St.  11-2 16.69 19.59 91.97 18.00 3.37 USC  9-3 16.41 21.29 90.65 20.30 4.99 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Penn St.  0.28 USC  -1.70 USC  -0.71 USC  -7 Penn St.  1.32 USC  -2.3  
      The Rose is another interesting case in that all the models have the game as a near toss-up except for Vegas which has the Trojans as a TD favorite.  It is conceivable that bettors are giving USC a home-field advantage boost which would account for some of the disparity, but even with the 3-points, Vegas likes USC more than any of the computer models do.
       
      Sugar:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Auburn  8-4 17.54 21.16 84.64 20.10 6.32 Oklahoma  10-2 19.23 22.39 90.29 21.90 2.66 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Oklahoma  -1.70 Oklahoma  -1.24 Oklahoma  -1.47 Oklahoma  -5.5 Oklahoma  -5.65 Oklahoma  -1.8  
      DUSHEE and the FPI have Oklahoma as a slight favorite, Vegas and Sagarin like them a little more.
       
      Other Big XII-II and Bowls
       
      Aside from TCU and Oklahoma, four other conference mates managed to become bowl eligible. Three are unanimous underdogs in their matchups.
       
      Cactus:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Baylor  6-6 1.91 3.06 67.00 7.40 -0.54 Boise St.  10-2 13.25 12.41 79.05 11.00 -2.08 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Boise St.  -11.34 Boise St.  -9.35 Boise St.  -10.35 Boise St.  -7.5 Boise St.  -12.05 Boise St.  -3.6  
      Only the FPI has this game within a touchdown and both DUSHEE and Sagarin think the Broncos are at least two-score (as in football scores, not Gettysburg Address scores) favorites.  Given Baylors' nose dive at the end of the season, it seems like the Broncos are a safe bet, if you are a betting man.
       
      Russell Athletic:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Miami (FL)  8-4 11.98 12.17 82.72 16.00 1.63 West Virginia  10-2 10.05 11.40 82.25 14.10 1.13 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Miami (FL)  1.92 Miami (FL)  0.77 Miami (FL)  1.35 Miami (FL)  3 Miami (FL)  0.47 Miami (FL)  1.9  
      The models are all unanimous in favor of the Hurricanes, but they are also unanimous that this is a close matchup.  Vegas has the largest spread at 3-points and all the models are within 2.5 points.
       
      Texas:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Texas A&M  8-4 5.81 8.65 81.03 16.20 4.16 Kansas St.  8-4 4.90 4.69 81.36 11.30 0.31 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Texas A&M  0.91 Texas A&M  3.96 Texas A&M  2.44 Texas A&M  2 Kansas St.  -0.33 Texas A&M  4.9  
      This should also be a tight game with the FPI giving the Aggies a 5-point advantage and Sagarin giving the Fighting Snyders a not-quite-half-point advantage.  Vegas splits the difference at a 2-point Agricultural spread.
       
      Alamo:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Colorado  10-3 16.06 20.77 89.05 16.30 6.14 Oklahoma St.  9-3 6.72 7.81 82.93 15.40 1.62 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Colorado  -9.34 Colorado  -12.96 Colorado  -11.15 Colorado  -3 Colorado  -6.12 Colorado  -0.9  
      All of the models are unanimous about Colorado in the sequel to the epic Bram Kohlhausen show of last year.  However, DUSHEE was pretty down on Oklahoma State this year in comparison to other models.  While most models had OSU easily in the Top-25, DUSHEE had the Cowboys at 33 and 32.  DUSHEE dinged the Pokes for below average performances against Central Michigan, Baylor, Kansas, and Oklahoma, with that Baylor loss in week 4 looking worse and worse as the season went along.  Thus, DUSHEE has Colorado as a double-digit favorite while the other models all have Colorado between a 1-to-6 point favorite.
       
      Other Bowls of Texas Note
       
      Las Vegas:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Houston  9-3 14.19 15.71 81.10 10.60 -0.45 San Diego St.  10-3 8.40 4.69 72.07 6.30 -6.44 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Houston  5.79 Houston  11.02 Houston  8.41 Houston  3.5 Houston  9.03 Houston  4.3  
      The models are unanimous for Houston with Vegas being the least enthusiastic about their chances.  A big discrepancy in Strength-of-Schedule between these two teams which means Revised DUSHEE likes Houston even more than Original DUSHEE which litkes the Cougars a lot more than Vegas or the FPI.  Sagarin and the DUSHEE Average are about on the same page for Houston. 
       
      Armed Forces:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Navy  9-3 6.54 7.67 73.73 4.80 1.50 Louisiana Tech  8-4 7.69 4.24 67.27 3.60 -5.39 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Louisiana Tech  -1.15 Navy  3.43 Navy  1.14 Louisiana Tech  -3.5 Navy  6.46 Navy  1.2  
      Another big Strength-of-Schedule disparity probably is the cause of such a mixed bag of predictions here with Original DUSHEE and Vegas leaning toward Terry Bradshaw's alma mater and Revised DUSHEE and everyone else leaning toward Roger Dodger's alma mater.
       
      Heart of Dallas:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Army  7-5 -0.89 -5.12 63.12 -1.80 -5.40 North Texas  5-7 -15.64 -19.55 50.84 -15.40 -3.93 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Army  14.75 Army  14.44 Army  14.59 Army  10 Army  12.28 Army  13.6  
      No one thinks this will be a close game, not because Army is a juggernaut but because North Texas is a ridiculous bowl team.  All 4 computer models have North Texas as the worst team playing in a bowl, edging out 6-7 Hawaii and miles from anybody else.  Regardless of method, all agree that the Mean Green are on the order of two touchdowns WORSE than and AVERAGE FBS team.  And Army is about an average FBS team.  Again I wonder if bettors are giving UNT a home-field boost playing a county away from home.
       
      Sun:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Stanford  9-3 6.68 9.14 84.15 14.40 3.41 North Carolina  8-4 3.52 4.99 78.74 14.10 1.93 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Stanford  3.17 Stanford  4.14 Stanford  3.65 Stanford  3.5 Stanford  5.41 Stanford  0.3  
      Everyone likes Stanford in the bowl that gives a warm feeling in the heart of any TCU fan over the age of 40.  Sagarin likes the Trees the most, FPI the least.  Only 5 points separate any of the predictions.
       
      Independence:
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS N.C. State  6-6 5.44 9.42 74.72 7.40 4.80 Vanderbilt  6-6 -2.18 -0.62 72.15 5.70 2.69 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI N.C. State  7.62 N.C. State  10.03 N.C. State  8.82 N.C. State  4 N.C. State  2.57 N.C. State  1.7  
      Yes, I know that this game is neither in Texas nor includes a Texas team, but it is right across the border.  It involves two mediocre teams from good conferences and everyone agrees that Philip Rivers' alma mater is slightly less mediocre than the Fightin' Robber Barons of Nashville.  This a game where DUSHEE likes a team far more than the others.
       
      All the Others
       
      All the rest of the that I haven't discussed to this point are captured in the table below.
          DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav D Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI New Mexico Albuquerque, NM New Mexico  -4.05 New Mexico  -4.07 New Mexico  -4.06 New Mexico  -7 New Mexico  -5.40 New Mexico  -6.4 Camelia Montgomery, AL Toledo  -4.81 Toledo  -7.25 Toledo  -6.03 Appalachian State 1 Toledo  -0.52 Toledo  -0.5 Cure Orlando, FL UCF  2.05 UCF  6.12 UCF  4.09 UCF  6 UCF  4.64 UCF  4.6 New Orleans New Oleans, LA Southern Miss  6.38 Southern Miss  8.16 Southern Miss  7.27 Southern Miss  3.5 LA Lafayette  -1.15 Southern Miss  4.6 Miami Beach Miami, FL Tulsa  -12.79 Tulsa  -14.39 Tulsa  -13.59 Tulsa  -11.5 Tulsa  -19.98 Tulsa  -9.2 Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL West. Kentucky  11.38 West. Kentucky  10.71 West. Kentucky  11.05 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  1.03 West. Kentucky  3.9 Poinsettia San Diego, Ca BYU  4.83 BYU  3.80 BYU  4.31 BYU  9 BYU  11.68 BYU  13.2 Potato Boise, ID Colorado St.  -12.59 Colorado St.  -17.19 Colorado St.  -14.89 Colorado St.  -13.5 Colorado St.  -10.48 Colorado St.  -9.2 Bahamas Nassau, BA Old Dominion -6.41 Old Dominion -2.31 Old Dominion -4.36 Old Dominion -4 Old Dominion -6.65 Old Dominion -5.4 Dollar General Mobile, AL Troy  9.11 Troy  10.11 Troy  9.61 Troy  3.5 Troy  3.11 Troy  5.3 Hawai'i Honolulu, HI Middle Tenn. St.  -10.04 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.13 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.09     Middle Tenn. St.  -2.28 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.7 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, FL Mississippi St.  4.60 Mississippi St.  11.44 Mississippi St.  8.02 Mississippi St.  13 Mississippi St.  13.41 Mississippi St.  16.0 Quick Lane Detroit, MI Maryland  2.32 Maryland  2.72 Maryland  2.52 Maryland  1 Maryland  1.63 Maryland  0.2 Military Annapolis, MD Temple  21.26 Temple  19.57 Temple  20.42 Temple  13 Temple  15.81 Temple  8.8 Holiday San Diego, Ca Washington St.  -16.00 Washington St.  -18.64 Washington St.  -17.32 Washington St.  -6.5 Washington St.  -6.45 Washington St.  -8.7 Pinstripe New York, NY Northwestern  -0.68 Northwestern  -1.44 Northwestern  -1.06 Pittsburgh  5.5 Pittsburgh  3.43 Pittsburgh  5.3 Foster Farms Santa Clara, CA Utah  -3.20 Utah  -4.60 Utah  -3.90 Utah  -8 Utah  -9.32 Utah  -9.8 Birmingham Birmingham, AL South Florida  -18.35 South Florida  -17.60 South Florida  -17.98 South Florida  -10.5 South Florida  -15.02 South Florida  -10.1 Belk Charlotte, NC Virginia Tech  -11.39 Virginia Tech  -7.61 Virginia Tech  -9.50 Virginia Tech  -7 Virginia Tech  -6.78 Virginia Tech  -6.6 Music City Nashville, TN Tennessee  -0.49 Tennessee  -2.16 Tennessee  -1.32 Tennessee  -3 Nebraska  0.76 Tennessee  -7.2 Arizona Tucson, AZ Air Force  11.83 Air Force  13.75 Air Force  12.79 Air Force  13.5 Air Force  15.13 Air Force  12.4 Citrus Orlando, FL Louisville  5.67 Louisville  0.43 Louisville  3.05 LSU  -3.5 LSU  -2.57 Louisville  0.6 TaxSlayer Jacksonville, FL Georgia Tech  0.46 Kentucky  -2.04 Kentucky  -0.79 Georgia Tech  3.5 Georgia Tech  6.70 Georgia Tech  3.8  
      A few notes on these games:
       
      1) I'm not sure why, but there is no Vegas line for the Middle Tennessee - Hawaii game.
       
      2) There are a few games where DUSHEE is in noticeable disagreement with the other predictors/models.  DUSHEE likes Toledo in the Camellia, Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton, Troy in the Dollar General (new candidate for top-5 worst Bowl Sponsor Names), and Washington State in the Holiday a lot more than the others.  DUSHEE likes Northwestern in the Pinstripe when the others all have Pitt as a 3.5-point or greater favorite.  Revised DUSHEE is the only model that likes Kentucky over Georgia Tech.  And DUSHEE is significantly less favorable toward Utah against Indiana than the others.  Northwestern and Western Kentucky were arguably the biggest DUSHEE WTF teams of the year so it is not surprising that DUSHEE favors them more than the others.  DUSHEE has also been noticeably undersold on Pitt this season.
       
      3) DUSHEE does not encourage gambling, but if one were inclined to make wagers based on the advice of DUSHEE, he would steer you toward Washington State (-6.5) against Minnesota in the Holiday, Michigan (-6.5) against Florida State in the Orange, Colorado (-3) against Oklahoma State in the Alamo, South Florida (-10.5) against South Carolina in the Birmingham, and Toledo (+1) against Appalachian State in the Camellia.
       
      4) DUSHEE's highest confidence picks are Temple, South Florida, Washington State, Michigan and Alabama.  Lowest confidence picks are USC, Kentucky, Northwestern, Navy, and Tennessee.
       
      So there you have it everybody.  After the bowls are over, we'll come back to this and see how DUSHEE fared.  Two seasons ago, DUSHEE did pretty well.  Last year, I petered out before bowl season and never kept track.
       
      Correction: Where's the Outback Bowl, mate?
       
      As Newbomb so astutely pointed out, I totally missed the Outback Bowl between Florida and Iowa.  And it turns out, the numbers for this game are notable.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Florida 8-4 6.59 7.58 79.58 12.60 1.96 Iowa 8-4 6.77 7.58 84.01 12.60 1.30

        DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav D Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Iowa -0.18 Iowa 0.00 Iowa -0.09 Florida 2.5 Iowa -4.43 Even 0.0  
      DUSHEE Original, DUSHEE Revised, and FPI all could not have this game more even.  You have to go out to the FIFTH decimal place in Revised DUSHEE to give Iowa the edge.  The FPI listing only goes to one decimal place.  Sagarin likes Iowa by 4.5, Vegas likes Florida by 2.5.  This game couldn't be more of a coin flip and becomes the new lowest DUSHEE confidence pick.  Which of course probably means that it will be a blowout.
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.
       
      DUSHEE Original Formulation
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Michigan  33.79 210.81 32.77 4 Clemson  23.54 204.90 25.65 5 Louisville  20.30 248.74 25.62 6 Washington  26.04 147.28 24.52 7 LSU  17.29 173.34 19.95 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 9 West. Kentucky  19.39 126.58 19.08 10 W. Michigan  19.12 107.02 17.94 11 Wisconsin  18.54 112.35 17.82 12 Auburn  18.55 106.46 17.54 13 Penn St.  17.41 104.65 16.69 14 USC  14.19 142.95 16.41 15 Colorado  15.09 123.54 16.06 16 Florida St.  12.33 159.87 15.99 17 Washington St.  16.34 104.22 15.96 18 Temple  12.69 130.96 14.83 19 Houston  13.63 105.05 14.19 20 Boise St.  12.66 99.10 13.25 21 Toledo  10.61 116.26 12.72 22 Miami (FL)  12.94 69.02 11.98 23 Virginia Tech  11.30 86.12 11.72 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 25 Tulsa  7.01 84.20 8.77 26 San Diego St.  7.85 65.22 8.40 27 Appalachian State 7.81 55.76 7.91 28 Memphis  11.13 5.78 7.70 29 Louisiana Tech  7.59 54.09 7.69 30 Iowa  11.22 -14.52 6.77 31 South Florida  9.15 13.83 6.77 32 Colorado St.  6.43 50.25 6.73 33 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 34 Stanford  8.40 22.27 6.68 35 Florida  6.22 50.26 6.59 36 Navy  7.74 28.47 6.54 37 Northwestern  7.67 23.90 6.28 38 Notre Dame  4.43 59.09 5.82 39 Texas A&M  9.33 -8.40 5.81 40 Pittsburgh  8.60 -2.92 5.59 41 Air Force  4.16 56.34 5.51 42 Troy  6.49 24.34 5.51 43 N.C. State  2.39 79.18 5.44 44 BYU  7.21 11.47 5.36 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 46 Tennessee  7.72 -21.93 4.08 47 Nebraska  3.73 22.85 3.59 48 Utah  4.20 15.84 3.57 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 50 North Carolina  3.79 20.41 3.52 51 Mississippi  2.46 33.08 3.25 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 53 Old Dominion 1.14 34.93 2.46 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 55 Michigan St.  -1.06 48.02 1.63 56 Georgia  -0.16 33.34 1.51 57 UCF  4.33 -30.22 1.42 58 Northern Illinois  0.61 4.64 0.63 59 Wyoming  3.31 -34.49 0.53 60 Indiana  -3.47 55.20 0.37 61 Arkansas  -0.56 14.27 0.32 62 Minnesota  3.14 -44.01 -0.05 63 Georgia Tech  2.43 -34.87 -0.08 64 Southern Miss  -5.86 74.75 -0.27 65 Mississippi St.  -0.13 -8.09 -0.48 66 Kentucky  -1.34 7.32 -0.54 67 Arkansas St.  0.87 -24.78 -0.63 68 Army  -2.98 22.61 -0.89 69 UCLA  -1.69 -4.30 -1.33 70 California  -2.87 11.71 -1.34 71 Vanderbilt  1.29 -62.50 -2.18 72 New Mexico  -3.71 4.12 -2.27 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 75 Ohio  -3.34 -28.27 -3.60 76 East. Michigan  -5.68 -3.38 -3.95 77 Cent. Michigan  -5.24 -10.85 -4.02 78 Utah St.  -5.82 -7.02 -4.22 79 Middle Tenn. St.  -4.79 -22.45 -4.28 80 Oregon St.  -3.47 -46.52 -4.57 81 Oregon  -5.42 -24.08 -4.78 82 Miami (OH)  -5.19 -33.47 -5.09 83 Duke  -5.32 -40.38 -5.51 84 Idaho  -4.23 -62.72 -5.87 85 Missouri  -7.08 -25.08 -5.94 86 South Alabama -5.29 -57.34 -6.31 87 UT-San Antonio -3.28 -85.12 -6.32 88 Wake Forest  -5.25 -60.38 -6.43 89 LA Lafayette  -6.91 -42.08 -6.65 90 SMU  -8.50 -26.90 -6.97 91 Maryland  -5.76 -67.76 -7.13 92 Georgia Southern -5.28 -74.85 -7.16 93 Ball St.  -9.09 -46.05 -8.30 94 Cincinnati  -8.96 -48.04 -8.30 95 Tulane  -8.06 -67.08 -8.63 96 Boston Coll.  -10.46 -51.17 -9.46 97 East Carolina  -14.51 -16.38 -10.47 98 Arizona  -12.41 -48.05 -10.61 99 Kent St.  -10.01 -83.53 -10.73 100 Virginia  -10.55 -83.73 -11.10 101 Georgia State -11.85 -73.42 -11.47 102 South Carolina  -9.05 -114.22 -11.58 103 Arizona St.  -7.98 -129.18 -11.60 104 Syracuse  -12.99 -67.27 -11.93 105 Akron  -9.96 -111.31 -12.05 106 Bowling Green  -14.75 -64.20 -12.96 107 UNLV  -13.77 -78.93 -13.02 108 Nevada  -12.19 -121.52 -14.03 109 San Jose St.  -15.25 -79.76 -14.04 110 Hawaii  -14.93 -89.87 -14.32 111 Florida Intl.  -16.06 -98.19 -15.48 112 North Texas  -13.34 -138.82 -15.64 113 Purdue  -17.46 -86.33 -15.83 114 Illinois  -15.30 -123.95 -16.22 115 UNC-Charlotte -16.75 -113.41 -16.68 116 New Mexico St.  -16.92 -113.40 -16.79 117 UTEP  -18.70 -118.20 -18.21 118 Fresno St.  -19.01 -118.17 -18.41 119 Connecticut  -18.46 -129.58 -18.60 120 Marshall  -17.94 -154.97 -19.49 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53 122 Massachusetts -18.29 -151.10 -19.54 123 Rice  -18.37 -162.05 -20.12 124 Buffalo  -21.14 -137.72 -20.79 125 LA Monroe  -20.41 -148.34 -20.82 126 Florida Atlantic  -20.01 -164.67 -21.34 127 Rutgers  -21.33 -171.67 -22.56 128 Texas St. -30.67 -232.72 -31.76  
      Original Form. By Conference
       
      18 Temple  12.69 130.96 14.83 19 Houston  13.63 105.05 14.19 25 Tulsa  7.01 84.20 8.77 28 Memphis  11.13 5.78 7.70 31 South Florida  9.15 13.83 6.77 36 Navy  7.74 28.47 6.54 57 UCF  4.33 -30.22 1.42 90 SMU  -8.50 -26.90 -6.97 94 Cincinnati  -8.96 -48.04 -8.30 95 Tulane  -8.06 -67.08 -8.63 97 East Carolina  -14.51 -16.38 -10.47 119 Connecticut  -18.46 -129.58 -18.60 4 Clemson  23.54 204.90 25.65 5 Louisville  20.30 248.74 25.62 16 Florida St.  12.33 159.87 15.99 22 Miami (FL)  12.94 69.02 11.98 23 Virginia Tech  11.30 86.12 11.72 40 Pittsburgh  8.60 -2.92 5.59 43 N.C. State  2.39 79.18 5.44 50 North Carolina  3.79 20.41 3.52 63 Georgia Tech  2.43 -34.87 -0.08 83 Duke  -5.32 -40.38 -5.51 88 Wake Forest  -5.25 -60.38 -6.43 96 Boston Coll.  -10.46 -51.17 -9.46 100 Virginia  -10.55 -83.73 -11.10 104 Syracuse  -12.99 -67.27 -11.93 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Michigan  33.79 210.81 32.77 11 Wisconsin  18.54 112.35 17.82 13 Penn St.  17.41 104.65 16.69 30 Iowa  11.22 -14.52 6.77 37 Northwestern  7.67 23.90 6.28 47 Nebraska  3.73 22.85 3.59 55 Michigan St.  -1.06 48.02 1.63 60 Indiana  -3.47 55.20 0.37 62 Minnesota  3.14 -44.01 -0.05 91 Maryland  -5.76 -67.76 -7.13 113 Purdue  -17.46 -86.33 -15.83 114 Illinois  -15.30 -123.95 -16.22 127 Rutgers  -21.33 -171.67 -22.56 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 33 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53 9 West. Kentucky  19.39 126.58 19.08 29 Louisiana Tech  7.59 54.09 7.69 53 Old Dominion 1.14 34.93 2.46 64 Southern Miss  -5.86 74.75 -0.27 79 Middle Tenn. St.  -4.79 -22.45 -4.28 87 UT-San Antonio -3.28 -85.12 -6.32 111 Florida Intl.  -16.06 -98.19 -15.48 112 North Texas  -13.34 -138.82 -15.64 115 UNC-Charlotte -16.75 -113.41 -16.68 117 UTEP  -18.70 -118.20 -18.21 120 Marshall  -17.94 -154.97 -19.49 123 Rice  -18.37 -162.05 -20.12 126 Florida Atlantic  -20.01 -164.67 -21.34 38 Notre Dame  4.43 59.09 5.82 44 BYU  7.21 11.47 5.36 68 Army  -2.98 22.61 -0.89 122 Massachusetts -18.29 -151.10 -19.54 10 W. Michigan  19.12 107.02 17.94 21 Toledo  10.61 116.26 12.72 58 Northern Illinois  0.61 4.64 0.63 75 Ohio  -3.34 -28.27 -3.60 76 East. Michigan  -5.68 -3.38 -3.95 77 Cent. Michigan  -5.24 -10.85 -4.02 82 Miami (OH)  -5.19 -33.47 -5.09 93 Ball St.  -9.09 -46.05 -8.30 99 Kent St.  -10.01 -83.53 -10.73 105 Akron  -9.96 -111.31 -12.05 106 Bowling Green  -14.75 -64.20 -12.96 124 Buffalo  -21.14 -137.72 -20.79 20 Boise St.  12.66 99.10 13.25 26 San Diego St.  7.85 65.22 8.40 32 Colorado St.  6.43 50.25 6.73 41 Air Force  4.16 56.34 5.51 59 Wyoming  3.31 -34.49 0.53 72 New Mexico  -3.71 4.12 -2.27 78 Utah St.  -5.82 -7.02 -4.22 107 UNLV  -13.77 -78.93 -13.02 108 Nevada  -12.19 -121.52 -14.03 109 San Jose St.  -15.25 -79.76 -14.04 110 Hawaii  -14.93 -89.87 -14.32 118 Fresno St.  -19.01 -118.17 -18.41 6 Washington  26.04 147.28 24.52 14 USC  14.19 142.95 16.41 15 Colorado  15.09 123.54 16.06 17 Washington St.  16.34 104.22 15.96 34 Stanford  8.40 22.27 6.68 48 Utah  4.20 15.84 3.57 69 UCLA  -1.69 -4.30 -1.33 70 California  -2.87 11.71 -1.34 80 Oregon St.  -3.47 -46.52 -4.57 81 Oregon  -5.42 -24.08 -4.78 98 Arizona  -12.41 -48.05 -10.61 103 Arizona St.  -7.98 -129.18 -11.60 27 Appalachian State 7.81 55.76 7.91 42 Troy  6.49 24.34 5.51 67 Arkansas St.  0.87 -24.78 -0.63 84 Idaho  -4.23 -62.72 -5.87 86 South Alabama -5.29 -57.34 -6.31 89 LA Lafayette  -6.91 -42.08 -6.65 92 Georgia Southern -5.28 -74.85 -7.16 101 Georgia State -11.85 -73.42 -11.47 116 New Mexico St.  -16.92 -113.40 -16.79 125 LA Monroe  -20.41 -148.34 -20.82 128 Texas St. -30.67 -232.72 -31.76 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 7 LSU  17.29 173.34 19.95 12 Auburn  18.55 106.46 17.54 35 Florida  6.22 50.26 6.59 39 Texas A&M  9.33 -8.40 5.81 46 Tennessee  7.72 -21.93 4.08 51 Mississippi  2.46 33.08 3.25 56 Georgia  -0.16 33.34 1.51 61 Arkansas  -0.56 14.27 0.32 65 Mississippi St.  -0.13 -8.09 -0.48 66 Kentucky  -1.34 7.32 -0.54 71 Vanderbilt  1.29 -62.50 -2.18 85 Missouri  -7.08 -25.08 -5.94 102 South Carolina  -9.05 -114.22 -11.58  
      DUSHEE Revised Formulation
       
      1 Alabama  42.57 291.87 45.21 2 Ohio St.  39.66 248.78 40.78 3 Michigan  37.06 212.47 36.95 4 Clemson  27.44 204.40 30.08 5 Louisville  18.62 258.27 27.30 6 LSU  25.48 171.50 26.87 7 Washington  26.13 153.14 26.25 8 Oklahoma  20.79 148.09 22.39 9 Wisconsin  23.72 109.64 22.13 10 Florida St.  18.13 162.15 21.43 11 USC  19.41 144.81 21.29 12 Auburn  24.50 83.70 21.16 13 Colorado  21.01 117.38 20.77 14 Penn St.  20.82 99.06 19.59 15 Washington St.  17.55 105.73 17.79 16 West. Kentucky  15.25 123.58 17.29 17 Houston  13.70 114.14 15.71 18 W. Michigan  13.46 106.21 15.09 19 Temple  10.16 128.05 14.15 20 Virginia Tech  12.46 89.05 13.44 21 Boise St.  10.41 94.84 12.41 22 Miami (FL)  14.14 47.66 12.17 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.40 24 Toledo  6.97 112.51 11.13 25 Northwestern  11.80 27.29 9.44 26 N.C. State  7.11 81.12 9.42 27 Mississippi  11.48 30.21 9.39 28 Tulsa  6.48 84.88 9.21 29 Stanford  11.85 21.43 9.14 30 Texas A&M  13.45 -5.55 8.65 31 Pittsburgh  12.31 -3.67 8.00 32 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 33 Navy  9.07 28.15 7.67 34 Iowa  12.59 -14.02 7.58 35 Florida  8.25 36.12 7.58 36 Colorado St.  6.26 59.00 7.57 37 Notre Dame  6.46 52.72 7.34 38 Tennessee  11.94 -20.70 6.77 39 Michigan St.  5.34 53.00 6.62 40 Memphis  10.22 -4.09 6.58 41 Arkansas  5.77 34.29 5.82 42 South Florida  8.26 -0.55 5.47 43 BYU  6.93 8.40 5.11 44 TCU  2.87 54.13 5.03 45 North Carolina  5.69 20.79 4.99 46 Utah  5.49 18.25 4.71 47 San Diego St.  1.50 63.96 4.69 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 49 Nebraska  4.25 30.78 4.61 50 Louisiana Tech  2.28 47.14 4.24 51 Appalachian State 0.64 59.84 3.88 52 Texas  0.75 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.49 3.06 54 Kentucky  2.25 25.29 2.96 55 Air Force  0.63 43.32 2.91 56 Mississippi St.  4.29 -6.72 2.47 57 Georgia  0.98 26.51 2.18 58 Troy  0.68 16.85 1.42 59 Wyoming  4.48 -29.13 1.31 60 Georgia Tech  4.55 -36.71 0.92 61 Northern Illinois  -0.67 22.79 0.87 62 UCLA  0.98 3.45 0.85 63 UCF  4.97 -43.07 0.83 64 California  0.47 6.18 0.67 65 Indiana  -4.58 54.86 0.11 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.73 -0.34 67 Vanderbilt  4.18 -59.02 -0.62 68 Minnesota  2.56 -44.37 -0.85 69 Oregon St.  2.43 -42.94 -0.86 70 Oregon  -0.09 -26.27 -1.57 71 Old Dominion -6.36 34.91 -2.23 72 Duke  -0.22 -38.89 -2.39 73 Utah St.  -3.92 -6.49 -2.99 74 Southern Miss  -11.62 74.88 -3.43 75 Iowa St.  -2.95 -37.89 -4.15 76 East. Michigan  -7.03 2.58 -4.54 77 Army  -9.16 17.12 -5.12 78 Cent. Michigan  -6.84 -10.79 -5.18 79 Arkansas St.  -6.07 -21.58 -5.29 80 Missouri  -6.11 -22.41 -5.37 81 Wake Forest  -2.91 -60.40 -5.42 82 SMU  -6.22 -27.95 -5.75 83 Maryland  -2.60 -80.10 -6.35 84 Arizona  -7.13 -47.29 -7.48 85 New Mexico  -11.03 -5.42 -7.66 86 Cincinnati  -8.12 -49.63 -8.27 87 Kent St.  -7.75 -58.59 -8.54 88 Ohio  -10.48 -29.49 -8.68 89 Miami (OH)  -10.46 -34.46 -8.96 90 Syracuse  -7.28 -71.78 -8.99 91 Boston Coll.  -9.77 -44.37 -9.07 92 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.40 -15.61 -9.17 93 Tulane  -8.45 -68.48 -9.58 94 Idaho  -8.83 -64.76 -9.62 95 Arizona St.  -3.23 -131.40 -9.72 96 Georgia Southern -7.96 -76.98 -9.74 97 East Carolina  -14.08 -16.22 -10.32 98 Virginia  -8.94 -78.15 -10.46 99 South Alabama -11.36 -56.69 -10.84 100 Ball St.  -13.36 -44.86 -11.50 101 LA Lafayette  -13.78 -41.67 -11.59 102 UT-San Antonio -9.38 -95.05 -11.73 103 South Carolina  -8.56 -111.33 -12.13 104 Bowling Green  -14.25 -57.97 -12.84 105 Illinois  -10.57 -124.54 -14.22 106 Akron  -12.23 -105.98 -14.26 107 Georgia State -15.72 -67.42 -14.37 108 Purdue  -16.54 -76.50 -15.44 109 UNLV  -17.56 -77.63 -16.18 110 San Jose St.  -17.46 -80.51 -16.28 111 Hawaii  -17.90 -93.06 -17.30 112 Kansas  -16.11 -120.33 -17.67 113 Rutgers  -12.81 -167.29 -18.18 114 North Texas  -17.38 -138.22 -19.55 115 Florida Intl.  -22.26 -89.92 -20.02 116 UNC-Charlotte -21.21 -104.58 -20.16 117 Fresno St.  -20.29 -116.72 -20.25 118 Connecticut  -19.36 -130.53 -20.43 119 New Mexico St.  -22.07 -113.61 -21.26 120 Nevada  -20.66 -131.18 -21.33 121 Massachusetts -21.19 -151.36 -22.85 122 LA Monroe  -23.01 -141.00 -23.46 123 UTEP  -26.42 -116.01 -24.30 124 Marshall  -21.75 -175.67 -24.62 125 Rice  -22.48 -178.83 -25.29 126 Buffalo  -26.78 -140.34 -25.94 127 Florida Atlantic  -25.61 -169.95 -26.87 128 Texas St. -34.29 -230.61 -36.15  
      By Conference
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score 17 Houston  13.70 114.14 15.71 19 Temple  10.16 128.05 14.15 28 Tulsa  6.48 84.88 9.21 33 Navy  9.07 28.15 7.67 40 Memphis  10.22 -4.09 6.58 42 South Florida  8.26 -0.55 5.47 63 UCF  4.97 -43.07 0.83 82 SMU  -6.22 -27.95 -5.75 86 Cincinnati  -8.12 -49.63 -8.27 93 Tulane  -8.45 -68.48 -9.58 97 East Carolina  -14.08 -16.22 -10.32 118 Connecticut  -19.36 -130.53 -20.43 4 Clemson  27.44 204.40 30.08 5 Louisville  18.62 258.27 27.30 10 Florida St.  18.13 162.15 21.43 20 Virginia Tech  12.46 89.05 13.44 22 Miami (FL)  14.14 47.66 12.17 26 N.C. State  7.11 81.12 9.42 31 Pittsburgh  12.31 -3.67 8.00 45 North Carolina  5.69 20.79 4.99 60 Georgia Tech  4.55 -36.71 0.92 72 Duke  -0.22 -38.89 -2.39 81 Wake Forest  -2.91 -60.40 -5.42 90 Syracuse  -7.28 -71.78 -8.99 91 Boston Coll.  -9.77 -44.37 -9.07 98 Virginia  -8.94 -78.15 -10.46 2 Ohio St.  39.66 248.78 40.78 3 Michigan  37.06 212.47 36.95 9 Wisconsin  23.72 109.64 22.13 14 Penn St.  20.82 99.06 19.59 25 Northwestern  11.80 27.29 9.44 34 Iowa  12.59 -14.02 7.58 39 Michigan St.  5.34 53.00 6.62 49 Nebraska  4.25 30.78 4.61 65 Indiana  -4.58 54.86 0.11 68 Minnesota  2.56 -44.37 -0.85 83 Maryland  -2.60 -80.10 -6.35 105 Illinois  -10.57 -124.54 -14.22 108 Purdue  -16.54 -76.50 -15.44 113 Rutgers  -12.81 -167.29 -18.18 8 Oklahoma  20.79 148.09 22.39 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.40 32 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 44 TCU  2.87 54.13 5.03 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 52 Texas  0.75 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.49 3.06 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.73 -0.34 75 Iowa St.  -2.95 -37.89 -4.15 112 Kansas  -16.11 -120.33 -17.67 16 West. Kentucky  15.25 123.58 17.29 50 Louisiana Tech  2.28 47.14 4.24 71 Old Dominion -6.36 34.91 -2.23 74 Southern Miss  -11.62 74.88 -3.43 92 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.40 -15.61 -9.17 102 UT-San Antonio -9.38 -95.05 -11.73 114 North Texas  -17.38 -138.22 -19.55 115 Florida Intl.  -22.26 -89.92 -20.02 116 UNC-Charlotte -21.21 -104.58 -20.16 123 UTEP  -26.42 -116.01 -24.30 124 Marshall  -21.75 -175.67 -24.62 125 Rice  -22.48 -178.83 -25.29 127 Florida Atlantic  -25.61 -169.95 -26.87 37 Notre Dame  6.46 52.72 7.34 43 BYU  6.93 8.40 5.11 77 Army  -9.16 17.12 -5.12 121 Massachusetts -21.19 -151.36 -22.85 18 W. Michigan  13.46 106.21 15.09 24 Toledo  6.97 112.51 11.13 61 Northern Illinois  -0.67 22.79 0.87 76 East. Michigan  -7.03 2.58 -4.54 78 Cent. Michigan  -6.84 -10.79 -5.18 87 Kent St.  -7.75 -58.59 -8.54 88 Ohio  -10.48 -29.49 -8.68 89 Miami (OH)  -10.46 -34.46 -8.96 100 Ball St.  -13.36 -44.86 -11.50 104 Bowling Green  -14.25 -57.97 -12.84 106 Akron  -12.23 -105.98 -14.26 126 Buffalo  -26.78 -140.34 -25.94 21 Boise St.  10.41 94.84 12.41 36 Colorado St.  6.26 59.00 7.57 47 San Diego St.  1.50 63.96 4.69 55 Air Force  0.63 43.32 2.91 59 Wyoming  4.48 -29.13 1.31 73 Utah St.  -3.92 -6.49 -2.99 85 New Mexico  -11.03 -5.42 -7.66 109 UNLV  -17.56 -77.63 -16.18 110 San Jose St.  -17.46 -80.51 -16.28 111 Hawaii  -17.90 -93.06 -17.30 117 Fresno St.  -20.29 -116.72 -20.25 120 Nevada  -20.66 -131.18 -21.33 7 Washington  26.13 153.14 26.25 11 USC  19.41 144.81 21.29 13 Colorado  21.01 117.38 20.77 15 Washington St.  17.55 105.73 17.79 29 Stanford  11.85 21.43 9.14 46 Utah  5.49 18.25 4.71 62 UCLA  0.98 3.45 0.85 64 California  0.47 6.18 0.67 69 Oregon St.  2.43 -42.94 -0.86 70 Oregon  -0.09 -26.27 -1.57 84 Arizona  -7.13 -47.29 -7.48 95 Arizona St.  -3.23 -131.40 -9.72 51 Appalachian State 0.64 59.84 3.88 58 Troy  0.68 16.85 1.42 79 Arkansas St.  -6.07 -21.58 -5.29 94 Idaho  -8.83 -64.76 -9.62 96 Georgia Southern -7.96 -76.98 -9.74 99 South Alabama -11.36 -56.69 -10.84 101 LA Lafayette  -13.78 -41.67 -11.59 107 Georgia State -15.72 -67.42 -14.37 119 New Mexico St.  -22.07 -113.61 -21.26 122 LA Monroe  -23.01 -141.00 -23.46 128 Texas St. -34.29 -230.61 -36.15 1 Alabama  42.57 291.87 45.21 6 LSU  25.48 171.50 26.87 12 Auburn  24.50 83.70 21.16 27 Mississippi  11.48 30.21 9.39 30 Texas A&M  13.45 -5.55 8.65 35 Florida  8.25 36.12 7.58 38 Tennessee  11.94 -20.70 6.77 41 Arkansas  5.77 34.29 5.82 54 Kentucky  2.25 25.29 2.96 56 Mississippi St.  4.29 -6.72 2.47 57 Georgia  0.98 26.51 2.18 67 Vanderbilt  4.18 -59.02 -0.62 80 Missouri  -6.11 -22.41 -5.37 103 South Carolina  -8.56 -111.33 -12.13  
      Strength of Schedule
       
      1 Miss 8.74 2 Rut 8.35 3 LSU 8.17 4 Bama 6.77 5 MichSt 6.73 6 Aub 6.32 7 Syr 6.19 8 Col 6.14 9 Ark 5.76 10 OreSt 5.63 11 FSU 5.55 12 OhSt 5.37 13 Ore 5.29 14 Zona 5.16 15 Wisc 5.14 16 USC 4.99 17 NCSU 4.80 18 Duke 4.73 19 Ill 4.72 20 MissSt 4.67 21 ASU 4.44 22 Tenn 4.26 23 Kan 4.24 24 A&M 4.16 25 Nwstern 4.12 26 Clem 3.99 27 Pitt 3.83 28 Cal 3.45 29 Ky 3.42 30 Stan 3.41 31 Mary 3.40 32 PSU 3.37 33 Mich 3.18 34 Vandy 2.69 35 SMU 2.68 36 OU 2.66 37 ND 2.55 38 UCLA 2.39 39 Wake 2.32 40 GaTech 2.23 41 Ttech 2.03 42 Fla 1.96 43 UNC 1.93 44 USU 1.90 45 WSU 1.86 46 Mizz 1.82 47 Uva 1.73 48 ISU 1.71 49 MiaFl 1.63 50 OkSt 1.62 51 Navy 1.50 52 KentSt 1.39 53 Iowa 1.30 54 Utah 1.28 55 TCU 1.16 56 WVU 1.13 57 ECU 0.91 58 Cin 0.82 59 UCF 0.79 60 Wyo 0.75 61 Uga 0.73 62 VaTech 0.68 63 BC 0.64 64 Tex 0.56 65 Pur 0.53 66 SoCar 0.41 67 Neb 0.35 68 KSU 0.31 69 CSU -0.05 70 Mem -0.19 71 Tulsa -0.20 72 Wash -0.22 73 BYU -0.30 74 BGSU -0.42 75 Tulane -0.43 76 Hou -0.45 77 Bay -0.54 78 Minn -0.77 79 USF -0.83 80 Ind -1.16 81 Fres -1.26 82 UNI -1.31 83 Uconn -1.47 84 CMU -1.62 85 L'ville -1.66 86 Boise -2.08 87 Akr -2.23 88 EMU -2.25 89 SJSU -2.33 90 ULaMon -2.49 91 GaSo -2.56 92 Temp -2.62 93 Haw -2.78 94 Umass -2.94 95 Marsh -3.00 96 TexSt -3.44 97 AFA -3.51 98 Tol -3.63 99 UNLV -3.92 100 UNT -3.93 101 Rice -4.00 102 GaSt -4.01 103 WKU -4.06 104 Ball -4.28 105 Char -4.40 106 Ida -4.81 107 NMSU -5.01 108 Buf -5.32 109 MiaOh -5.35 110 LaTech -5.39 111 Army -5.40 112 USM -5.58 113 USA -5.59 114 WMU -5.60 115 UTSA -5.83 116 FAU -5.83 117 Troy -6.02 118 FIU -6.31 119 ArkSt -6.31 120 SDSU -6.44 121 ULaLa -6.84 122 Ohio -7.18 123 UNM -7.34 124 AppSt -7.38 125 UTEP -7.65 126 ODU -7.72 127 Nev -8.01 128 MTSU -8.11
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0

       
      Whither the 2016 Frogs?
       
      Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.
       
      The 2016 Frogs.
       
      Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.
       
      There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point beatdown of the drain-encircling Rapey-bears.  The Charlie Strong swan song (La cucuracha, ya no puede caminar ...).  A 30-point beating of an SMU team who may not have been as dreadful as they appeared at the time (ask Houston).
       
      But the evil Frogs appeared just as often.  Kansas.  West Virginia.  Oklahoma State.
       
      And then there were the games when the Good and Evil Frogs battled for dominance within the same game, sometimes quarter-to-quarter.  Arkansas -- Evil Frogs in the first half, beautiful Frogs in the second.  Oklahoma -- Dr. Jekyll in the first and fourth, Mr. Hyde in the second and third.  For the first 5 weeks of the season, save for the inevitable Kenny Hill pick-6, the offense looked unstoppable while the defense looked atrocious.  Then, from weeks 6 through 9, the formerly unstoppable offense became totally inept while the defense started getting better.  Then for the last 4 weeks, the offense and defense joined forces, either showing Peach Bowl-level dominance or 1997-level ineptitude, but in unison and in alternating weeks.  Blow out Baylor.  Blown out by Okie State.  Blow out Texas.  Blown out by Kansas State.
       
      And then there was "home field advantage."  The Frogs were uncategorically awful at "The Carter."  The Frogs averaged a point differential of nearly a +10 points on the road this year.  They averaged a point differential of -4 points at home.  That means the Frogs were 4 points worse than an average FBS team at home and 10 points better than an average FBS team on the road.  On average, FBS teams were 3.2 points better at home than on the road.  Twenty-nine teams (out of 128) had worse point differentials at home than on the road.  Only Army (-22) had a bigger home-road disparity than the Frogs.
       
      A look at the Frog's numbers week-to-week shows just how inscrutable the Frogs were this season:
       
      Opp    Ark  ISU @ SMU  OU @ Kan   @ WVU  Ttech @ Bay    OkSt @ Tex  KSU PD   -7.40 19.20 21.20 9.82 -24.30   -17.10 -8.30 44.60   -20.20 24.45 -17.50 YD   172.40 107.00 243.50 107.09 -265.70   -28.70 81.20 365.00   -194.90 134.18 -252.60 Score   3.44 18.00 25.96 11.75 -29.11   -12.79 -1.59 47.46   -22.93 22.82 -23.94  
      Up until week 6, this team had the look of a pretty solid team.  They lost a game to Arkansas they had no business losing, beating the Hogs physically but combining a slow start, shaky kicking, and insurmountable turnovers into a painful loss stew.  They dominated two teams they were supposed to dominate, Iowa State and SMU, and then played a top-10 Oklahoma team to an almost draw. 
       
      Then there was Kansas.  Effing Kansas.  Every. Damn. Year. Kansas.  By DUSHEE metrics, the Kansas game was the Frogs worst performance of the year.  It was last year as well.  And the year before.  All of them wins, mind you.  But awful, terrible, no good performances against awful, terrible, no good teams. 
       
      And from that point on, the Frogs were usually a below-average team.  Except for Baylor and Texas, when they looked like a legitimate top-25 team.
       
      Looking at the standard deviation (a measure of inconsistency in this case) in point differential, the Frogs were the 12th most inconsistent team in FBS this season (Army, being the most inconsistent) with a standard deviation of 22.7 points.  That means the Frogs, who had an average point differential of 2.2 points/game, were just as likely to be 25 points better than an average team on a given afternoon (as they were against Texas) as they were to be 20 points worse than an average team (as they were against Oklahoma State).
       
      Such were the 2016 Frogs.
       
      Wither the "Big" XII-II?
       
      It was a bad year for the conference as well.  I want to dig into conference strength more after the Army-Navy game Saturday officially closes out the regular season, but as a preview DUSHEE had the Big XII-II about as close, on average, to the American Athletic Conference as the PAC-12, the next lowest "Power 5" conference:
       
      Conference Average DUSHEE Scores
       
      SEC 5.39 ACC 4.35 B10 4.21 P12 4.08 B12 2.30 AAC 0.79 MWC -3.82 MAC -4.19 CUSA -8.38 SBC -8.55  
      The bulk of the conference was really, really, middling, with only Oklahoma and West Virginia averaging a touchdown or greater better than an average team.  Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and TCU were between a field goal and touchdown better than an average team; Texas and Baylor were definitively average.  Here are the conference numbers:
       
                 Rk Team                              PD           YD          Score (Orig)
      8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 34 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53  
      The Revised DUSHEE score emphasizes strength-of-schedule and de-emphasizes performances that are far outside the norm for a particular team; but since a team's strength of schedule is dominated by the conference it is in (e.g., 82% of TCU's SoS was based on its 9 conference opponents of 11 FBS games), the conference's Revised DUSHEE rankings don't look a lot different than the Originals:
       
      8 Oklahoma  20.80 148.08 22.40 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.41 33 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 44 TCU  2.88 54.12 5.04 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 52 Texas  0.74 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.48 3.06 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.74 -0.34 75 Iowa St.  -2.94 -37.87 -4.15 112 Kansas  -16.10 -120.33 -17.67  
      I would caution not to put too much emphasis on the conference's weakness this season.  It was a down year.  The last two seasons, the Big XII-II were either second or third in the average ratings.  Three years ago, many were having a wake for the B1G as a relevant conference outside of Ohio State.  Now, people are clamoring for as many as three B1G teams in the CFP.  These things are transient, and a small conference like the Big 12 are harder hit by bad years from top teams (ahem, TCU and Baylor).
       
      Whither Georgia?
       
      I also intend to put out a blog on the Bowl season but since we're emphasizing the Frogs, let's take a look at their Liberty Bowl opponent, Georgia.
       
      On an average basis, the Dawgs look about the same as the Frogs.  But on a week-to-week basis, Georgia was less Jekyll/Hyde and more consistently meh.
       
      Opp UNC   Mizz Miss Tenn SoCar Vandy   Fla Ky Aub ULaLa GaTech PD 14.00   -6.90 -38.30 -0.40 7.40 -1.80   -9.27 -0.50 21.10 13.10 -0.20 YD 194.67   -100.10 -132.30 -13.60 -66.70 203.90   -26.27 140.90 271.10 -79.20 -25.60 Score (Orig) 18.79   -9.46 -31.96 -0.93 1.69 8.70   -7.46 6.51 27.23 4.89 -1.38 Score (Revised) 21.40   -13.57 -25.54 1.70 -6.36 7.57   -3.18 7.05 36.52 0.00 -1.60  
      Georgia had two good performances; in week 1 against UNC (33-24, outgaining 474-315) and in their week 11 upset of Auburn (13-7, outgaining 343-164).  Georgia's two worst performances were back-to-back in weeks 3-4 against a weak Missouri team (28-27, outgained 409-473) and Ole Miss (14-45, outgained 396-510).  Their other 7 games, they were really, consistently average.
       
      Based on average DUSHEE score, the Frogs are a 2.5-point favorite over Georgia, but while we've seen a lot of the "average" Georgia team, we've seen very little of the "average" TCU team.  If the "good" TCU team shows, the line should probably be closer to 2-3 TDs.  If the "evil" TCU team shows, Georgia should be favored by 2-3 TDs.  I guess we'll just have to tune in and find out which side of the coin lands face up.
       

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