Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
  • entries
    78
  • comments
    48
  • views
    41,918

DUSHEE's Take on the CFP, TCU, and the Peach Bowl

Duquesne Frog

584 views

In case you hadn't stewed on the outcome of the CFP enough, here comes DUSHEE to try and shed at least a little light on what happened to the Frogs and college football in general over the last few weeks.

First, here are the critical DUSHEE numbers for each of the top 6 in the CFP final rankings for each FBS game played:

Alabama

Opp: WVU FAU USM| Fla Miss Ark | A&M Tenn LSU | MissSt Aub Mizz

PD: 14.00 33.36 23.70 | 29.22 8.50 8.60 | 66.40 16.30 15.50 | 23.90 21.40 36.91

YD: 247.40 413.45 170.40 | 578.00 179.90 -93.90 | 435.10 84.30 112.00 | -3.20 2.10 239.09

Score: 21.33 42.29 24.06 | 47.51 14.39 1.18 | 65.37 14.95 15.76 | 15.78 14.37 36.20

Best games: A&M (65.37), Fla (47.51)

Worst Games: Ark (1.18), Aub (14.37)

Oregon

Opp: MichSt Wyo WSU | Zona UCLA Wash | Cal Stan Utah | Col OreSt Zona

PD: 44.90 22.80 -4.20 | 0.42 19.00 34.27 | 13.90 39.00 27.00 | 25.64 22.20 49.17

YD: 241.50 64.30 58.70 | -40.00 -19.73 242.55 | -17.30 188.00 13.40 | 381.36 180.60 438.83

Score:41.64 18.32 0.05 | -1.66 11.71 34.61 | 8.43 35.12 18.65 | 35.58 23.56 54.06

Best games: Zona 2 (54.06), MichSt (41.64)

Worst games: Zona 1 (-1.66), WSU (0.05)

Florida State

Opp: OkSt Clem NCSU | Wake Syr ND | L'ville Uva MiaFl | BC Fla GaTech

PD: -0.60 15.00 15.70 | 28.50 11.00 8.45 | 22.10 14.30 7.70 | 6.80 11.44 14.55

YD: 33.80 13.80 14.20 | 174.60 73.10 -107.55 | 185.60 165.50 9.70 | 129.50 68.00 95.91

Score: 1.24 10.67 11.16 | 27.47 10.88 0.42 | 23.73 17.56 5.60 | 10.81 10.93 14.35

Best games: Wake (27.47), L'ville (23.73)

Worst games: ND (0.42), OkSt (1.24)

Ohio State

Opp: Navy VaTech KentSt | Cin Mary Rut | PSU Ill MichSt | Minn Ind Mich | Wisc

PD: 19.40 -14.40 58.70 | 33.45 26.50 35.20 | 9.91 35.20 37.20 | 12.60 5.40 13.64 | 78.55

YD: 32.30 21.30 419.60 | 315.27 126.10 192.70 | 121.27 206.30 249.20 | 203.50 66.70 68.64 | 513.09

Score: 14.50 -8.57 59.48 | 37.59 23.78 32.81 | 12.49 33.47 36.88 | 18.27 6.83 12.42 | 77.24

Best games: Wisc (77.24), KentSt (59.48)

Worst games: VaTech (-8.57), Ind (6.83)

Baylor

Opp: SMU Buf ISU | Tex TCU WVU | Kan OU OkSt |Ttech KSU

PD: 16.09 43.38 6.30 | 22.18 31.70 -12.40 | 31.50 52.55 15.90 | -11.40 25.10

YD: 301.09 327.75 126.90 | 72.27 506.00 -63.90 | 241.30 353.00 110.80 | -215.50 258.80

Score: 25.33 44.81 10.35 | 18.29 45.67 -11.37 | 32.70 52.15 15.97 | -18.05 29.28

Best games: TCU (45.67), Buf (44.81)

Worst games: TTech (-18.05), WVU (-11.37)

TCU

Opp: Minn SMU OU| Bay OkSt Ttech | WVU KSU Kan | Tex ISU:

PD: 30.20 28.09 19.82 | 19.90 29.10 46.90 | 4.10 36.10 -14.70 | 40.73 40.40

YD: 174.90 150.55 115.18 | -121.90 370.40 338.90 | 123.10 217.00 -97.50 | 97.36 373.30

Score: 28.61 26.03 18.80 | 7.36 37.36 47.70 | 8.70 34.59 -14.53 | 31.87 45.04

Best games: TTech (47.70), ISU (45.04)

Worst games: Kan (-14.53), Bay (7.36)

To reiterate, a PD or YD of 0 in a particular game means that the team performed as well against that opponent as the average team did in terms of points and yards, respectively. A PD of 10 means the team was roughly 10 points better against that opponent than the average team was, a YD of 100 means the team outgained the opponent by 100 more yards than the average team did. Negative differentials mean the team performed worse than the average team. And the Score is the PD adjusted by the YD based on how much the YD deviates from a typical performance given the team's PD.

Alabama played like an average team (Score between +/-7) once -- against Arkansas. Even in their loss to Ole Miss, they were still 2 touchdowns better against Mississippi than the average team was. Oregon played like an average team twice -- against Arizona the first time and against Washington State. Florida State was average three times (Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, and Miami). Ohio State was average once (Indiana) and significantly below average once (Virginia Tech). The same could be said for TCU (Kansas the significantly below average performance)., although technically their "average" performance against Bayloy fell just above the +/-7 range. Baylor, notably, was well below average twice, both in their loss to WVU and against Tech ... in fact DUSHEE rated the performance against Tech as almost a touchdown worse than their performance against WVU.

The flip side of the worst loss coin is the best win. In this category, Florida State was a clear underperformer. While all of the other 5 schools in the top six had at least two games with DUSHEE scores over 40, FSU's best performance of the year was a 27.47 score against Wake Forest, a 43-3 win in week 6. Florida State only had two games all season with a score above 20; meanwhile TCU and Ohio State had 7 and Baylor, Alabama, and Oregon had 6, , Both Alabama an Ohio State had, as discussed in previous posts, historically high DUSHEE scores in individual games, Alabama a 65.37 score against Texas A&M and Ohio State a 77.24 against Wisconsin. Both games were certainly outliers for both teams.

Conference Strength

The strength of a conference is up for considerable interpretation. If you take the average of all the strengths of teams in your conference, DUSHEE rates out the conferences this way:

SEC 9.75

B10 4.94

B12 4.80

P10 4.77

ACC 4.07

MWC -4.39

CUSA -4.71

AAC -6.00

MAC -8.97

SBC -9.54

By this metric, the SEC was the best conference by a considerable margin; perhaps the best way of interpreting this is by saying the average SEC team was roughly 5-6 points better than the average B1G, Big 12, Pac 10, or ACC team. And there wasn't a significant difference between the average teams in the rest of the "Power 5" conferences. I suspect such an assessment will be controversial on this board where the notion that the Big 12 was one of, if not THE, best conference and that the Big 10 was the worst. Based on team averaged performance, such a notion is disputable. Although the way in which each conference arrived at the same average was a little different.

The Big 12 was all over the map. Half of the conference was ranked 30 or better, with 4 teams in the top 20 and 2 in the top 10. Three teams could be placed in the average category: Texas, Oklahoma State, and Tech (barely); and two teams were awful: Kansas and Iowa State. The Big 12 was the only "Power 5" conference to have two teams rated 100 or worse.

3 TCU 25.51 158.30 24.68

6 Baylor 20.08 183.50 22.29

13 Oklahoma 16.35 110.62 16.27

17 Kansas St. 14.92 82.68 13.95

28 West Virginia 6.62 103.69 9.44

51 Texas 1.64 31.93 2.64

88 Oklahoma St. -4.04 -65.02 -5.85

90 Texas Tech -9.36 -7.34 -6.60

110 Iowa St. -12.27 -113.89 -13.70

116 Kansas -13.70 -123.10 -15.10

The ACC had 5 teams ranked 32 or better, but none higher than 14. Then they had a large core of 8 average(using the same +/-7 metric) teams and really only one really bad team -- Wake. The ACC was largely competent but not spectacular. Nobody that really should have been in consideration for the CFP but really only one terrible team.

14 Georgia Tech 15.85 101.75 15.50

21 Miami (FL) 9.50 122.58 12.28

22 Florida St. 12.91 71.35 12.07

26 Louisville 9.32 92.09 10.68

27 Clemson 8.30 102.64 10.51

32 Boston Coll. 5.79 63.76 6.95

40 Virginia Tech 5.61 47.46 6.04

45 Virginia 2.59 56.24 4.46

47 Pittsburgh 1.71 63.17 4.20

62 N.C. State -0.33 13.53 0.43

65 Duke 4.18 -54.43 0.15

78 Syracuse -5.82 -4.75 -4.11

79 North Carolina -3.59 -36.53 -4.17

121 Wake Forest -13.18 -189.43 -17.97

DUSHEE was generally far more impressed with the Big 10 and far less impressed with the Pac 12 (particularly at the top) than most other college football pundits and rankers. The Pac 12 had one really good team (Oregon), three teams at the very bottom of the top 25, and everyone else in the conference fits in the average category. The Pac 12 was the sole conference without one truly awful team (ranked 100 or worse).

5 Oregon 24.51 144.35 23.34

23 UCLA 11.13 92.78 11.92

24 Stanford 9.48 95.02 10.93

25 USC 11.60 65.33 10.90

31 Arizona 10.09 14.58 7.43

35 Arizona St. 8.44 12.92 6.25

57 Washington 4.82 -23.99 2.05

64 Utah 2.68 -31.40 0.26

71 Washington St. -7.50 55.46 -2.31

72 California -2.71 -17.30 -2.65

85 Oregon St. -6.18 -25.72 -5.37

86 Colorado -7.31 -13.15 -5.51

Meanwhile the B1G, was pretty evenly distributed. DUSHEE had both Ohio State and Michigan State as elite, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Minnesota as solid, 8 average teams, and one really bad team (Indiana).

1 Ohio St. 27.03 195.07 27.48

4 Michigan St. 22.57 197.16 24.61

12 Wisconsin 14.24 168.93 17.68

19 Nebraska 14.07 86.68 13.58

30 Minnesota 8.48 43.36 7.76

44 Penn St. 3.10 59.92 4.98

48 Iowa 2.11 40.95 3.39

54 Michigan 0.79 35.23 2.24

70 Northwestern -2.46 -4.44 -1.85

75 Rutgers -4.31 -18.55 -3.77

80 Maryland -1.29 -68.27 -4.17

89 Illinois -4.06 -77.75 -6.48

91 Purdue -6.70 -46.48 -6.72

100 Indiana -9.47 -67.32 -9.58

In particular, let's look at Wisconsin's season since their assault at the hands of Ohio State probably prevented a Big 12 entrant into the CFP:

Opp: LSU BGSU USF| Nwstern Ill Mary | Rut Pur Neb | Iowa Minn OhSt

PD: 3.40 47.00 6.40 | -10.90 1.10 45.20 | 33.00 8.20 52.90 | 6.50 15.90 -37.83

YD:-1.30 438.91 107.10 | 14.80 104.00 263.60 | 199.30 193.60 575.00 | 68.20 193.60 -129.67

Score: 2.20 52.62 9.46| -6.55 5.78 42.92 | 31.66 14.85 63.15 | 7.64 19.99 -31.51

Wisconsin had two epically big games against Nebraska (59-24) and Bowling Green (68-17, keeping in mind that Bowling Green, while nonetheless a bad team, was still a bad team who played for the MAC championship) and two other very strong performances against Maryland (52-7) and Rutgers (37-0). Outside of the Ohio State debachle, Wisconsin's worst performance was the loss to Northwestern (14-20) and average performances against LSU, Illinois, and Iowa. Prior to the Ohio State game, DUSHEE had Wisconsin ranked 5th and dropped them to 12th after. At this point in the season, moving seven spots in the poll, particularly at the top or bottom, is a big jump. Each game is only 1/12 of each team's ranking. Largely on the strength of that loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin was the 2nd most inconsistent team in the country with a standard deviation of 26.4 points, behind Louisiana Tech. That means that Wisconsin was as likely to obtain a DUSHEE score of 45 as it was a score of -7.

Based on the metrics used by DUSHEE, the B1G wasn't an inferior conference and Ohio State was a really good team. Doesn't make TCU's drop from 3rd to 6th any less sucky. But an argument can be made that they deserved to be in; moreso than can be made for Florida State, certainly.

Strength of Schedule

If we use the same technique we use to assess conference strength, average all the opponents' season-long scores for each team, the strengths of schedule for the 6 playoff teams plus 2, we get the following:

5 Alabama 7.72

33 Florida State 3.78

39 Oregon 3.26

47 Ohio State 2.35

65 TCU 0.04

73 Baylor -1.10

This is another factor that went against the Big 12, keeping in mind that FCS opponents are ignored in the DUSHEE rankings. Minnesota meant that TCU had the next-to-worst strength of schedule compared to Baylor's worst. When accounting for both teams playing the worst team in FBS, SMU, and both playing in the conference with two teams ranked over 100, neither Baylor nor TCU's schedule come out looking all that strong.

The Peach Bowl

Let's take a look at Mississippi's season.

Opp: Boise Vandy ULaLa | Mem Bama A&M | Tenn LSU Aub | Ark MissSt

PD: 38.25 22.40 44.40 | 37.90 27.64 18.00 | 35.00 4.50 4.90 | -25.50 33.80

YD: 204.33 288.40 224.90 | 396.10 96.36 -166.60 | 205.30 -51.90 109.90 | 40.30 192.60

Score: 35.41 28.92 40.51 | 44.47 23.10 3.92 | 33.29 0.48 8.60 | -15.05 31.87

Mississippi's year appears to be a tale of two seasons. Through the Alabama victory, Ole Miss was awesome, at least 3 TD's better than the average team against everybody they played. They whipped 2 of the 3 best non-Power 5 schools (Memphis 24-3 and Boise 35-13) and then gave Alabama their only loss (23-17). Then they beat A&M but got badly outgained, whipped Tennessee, then played like an average to below average team against LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas. In the Egg Bowl, they returned to their early season form.

On the year, TCU ended up 3rd in the DUSHEE rankings with a score of 24.68, while Mississippi were ranked 8th with a score of 21.41. The difference between these two scores is almost exactly the Vegas line for the game of TCU (-3). TCU was a little more consistent than Ole Miss (standard deviation of 17.9 versus 20.6). In fact, Mississippi was the 12th most inconsistent team in the country. Using these numbers and using 5000 simulated games, TCU wins 55% of the time against Ole Miss on a neautral field.

Ole Miss, BTW, also had the 3rd toughest schedule in the country (9.42) behind Auburn (12.34) and Arkansas (11.04). Vandy and ULaLa are the only two below average teams Mississippi played this year.

So in conclusion, DUSHEE thinks Vegas has it about right on the Peach Bowl, thinks that Ohio State wasn't really that bad of a pick, and that the Big 10 was actually a little underrated. But it also thinks TCU should have been in the playoff too ...

  • Upvote (+1) 1


2 Comments


Recommended Comments

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...