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Week 5 DUSHEE Rankings

Duquesne Frog

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blog-0412436001380500319.jpgAllow me to apologize in advance.

Baylor is the number one team in the land according to DUSHEE.

Now wait, wait. ... WAIT!

Remember the discussion from the first NMMH blog post. Teams are not well "interconnected," as Sagarin puts it, at this point. Baylor's ranking is coming based on the results of two games, against Buffalo and ULaMon. And because Buffalo put a pretty decent whooping on UConn this week, Buffalo isn't looking as bad (51st) in the rankings as they probably are in reality. Hang 70 on a fair-to-middlin' team (or at least a team that appears fair-to-middlin after a few games into the season) and your PM and YM will be high. Very high.

Point is this. Right now Baylor is sporting a PD of 54 and a YD of 397.5. Since 2000, the largest PD any team has had at the conclusion of the season was the 2005 Texas team at 38.4 and the largest YD was the 2000 Florida State team at 282. So unless this year's Baylor team is perhaps the best team in the history of college football, do not expect those numbers to stay anywhere close to where they are. Not only will they fall as they play close games against better opponents but expect their scores against Buffalo and ULaMon (especially Buffalo) to fall as the season progresses and those teams fall in the rankings.

As a basis for comparison, Texas Tech was the top ranked team in DUSHEE at this point last season with a PD of 31.1 and a YD of 332. They ended up ranked 39th with a PD of 3.8 and a YD of 100.8.

This begs a question: Why not cap blowouts? Other ranking systems do that and there may be some validity to the argument for doing so. The reason why I don't is because the selection of the cap is arbitrary and I'm trying to put in as few arbitrary judgements into the methodology as possible. Where do I cap it? 28? 35? Why? Do I cap yardage too? Again, where?

I'd argue that the fact that Baylor can hang 70 on Buffalo while most other teams cannot is relevant information. Capping their 57-point victory to 28 or some other arbitrary value artificially brings them down to a level of a far greater number of teams who have the ability to beat Buffalo by a similar score. So I'm not convinced blowouts of that magnitude should be thrown out or their effect reduced. I'd prefer to let a more complete and rounded field of competition affect the numbers.

But nonetheless mock away. DUSHEE probably deserves it.

The Frogs, by the way, open the polls at 42nd with a PD of 10.0 and a YD of 43.2.

Here are the rankings by team, followed by the rankings by conference.

Rank Team PD YD Points

1 Baylor 54.08 397.50 100.00

2 Washington 50.56 381.83 94.33

3 Oregon 40.44 180.61 65.10

4 Clemson 35.33 223.67 62.34

5 Louisville 33.22 223.39 59.70

6 Georgia 27.73 289.40 58.38

7 Florida St. 32.56 214.50 58.14

8 UCLA 30.42 215.19 55.55

9 Iowa 29.63 126.54 47.21

10 Alabama 31.71 80.00 45.92

11 Florida 18.33 272.17 45.31

12 Arizona St. 22.53 208.17 45.19

13 Arizona 21.81 168.47 41.00

14 Utah 19.33 169.67 38.04

15 Miami (FL) 19.36 164.03 37.60

16 Stanford 20.17 135.67 36.25

17 LSU 19.87 130.30 35.43

18 Virginia Tech 17.13 171.08 35.42

19 South Carolina 15.17 198.67 35.28

20 Illinois 24.94 41.39 34.34

21 Penn St. 17.13 156.58 34.21

22 Nebraska 18.56 134.61 34.16

23 Ohio St. 16.79 150.79 33.32

24 Wisconsin 11.75 181.63 29.63

25 Texas A&M 17.63 92.21 29.49

26 N.C. State 12.22 146.50 27.30

27 Mississippi St. 14.22 112.06 26.92

28 Syracuse 18.83 28.33 25.68

29 Missouri 16.78 33.78 23.59

30 Oregon St. 7.58 169.92 23.50

31 Oklahoma 9.96 131.60 23.26

32 West Virginia 10.28 110.67 21.92

33 Texas Tech 16.17 1.83 20.18

34 Auburn 13.33 42.73 20.07

35 Oklahoma St. 8.42 114.25 19.91

36 California 5.89 149.94 19.74

37 UCF 9.79 85.21 19.20

38 Mississippi 14.67 10.00 19.00

39 Georgia Tech 6.67 126.67 18.77

40 BYU 3.88 147.38 17.04

41 Kentucky 5.42 121.38 16.79

42 TCU 10.00 43.17 15.97

43 Houston 8.53 60.00 15.55

44 Tennessee 10.79 14.54 14.58

45 Iowa St. 7.83 57.83 14.51

46 Indiana 12.17 -9.83 14.26

47 Ohio 10.22 15.67 13.96

48 Utah St. 5.23 78.10 12.96

49 USC 4.07 86.13 12.19

50 Boise St. 3.17 82.54 10.78

51 Buffalo 9.33 -12.50 10.52

52 Notre Dame 5.57 39.93 10.21

53 East Carolina 8.92 -15.17 9.79

54 Maryland 3.33 67.17 9.71

55 Pittsburgh 3.38 34.25 7.02

56 Fresno St. 4.33 17.33 6.81

57 Washington St. 2.73 39.29 6.64

58 Michigan 3.35 21.81 5.97

59 Rice 3.15 16.27 5.25

60 Texas 3.67 7.48 5.16

61 Northwestern 4.33 -4.44 5.00

62 Ball St. 5.83 -37.92 4.08

63 Arkansas 1.38 7.50 2.33

64 Northern Illinois 6.39 -82.36 1.08

65 Virginia -1.00 0.17 -1.22

66 Duke -3.13 23.42 -1.93

67 Toledo -1.38 -7.17 -2.30

68 UT-San Antonio -7.13 64.43 -3.49

69 Rutgers -0.28 -37.89 -3.49

70 West. Kentucky -7.71 69.46 -3.78

71 Kansas St. 1.83 -78.83 -4.27

72 Boston Coll. 0.06 -60.36 -4.94

73 Wyoming 0.75 -76.81 -5.45

74 South Alabama -4.56 -27.56 -7.93

75 Marshall -7.78 12.94 -8.56

76 Bowling Green -6.21 -20.83 -9.42

77 North Carolina -4.83 -46.63 -9.86

78 Colorado -11.50 42.33 -10.73

79 Minnesota 2.67 -178.60 -11.52

80 Navy -4.25 -77.50 -11.70

81 Michigan St. -9.89 2.47 -12.05

82 North Texas -1.00 -131.56 -12.16

83 San Jose St. -8.67 -18.56 -12.28

84 Cincinnati -8.33 -34.28 -13.17

85 Army -8.67 -32.33 -13.42

86 San Diego St. -10.81 -10.25 -14.24

87 Texas St. -0.78 -167.50 -14.87

88 Vanderbilt -6.63 -103.79 -16.82

89 Connecticut -8.28 -81.61 -17.03

90 Memphis -8.89 -72.78 -17.05

91 Akron -9.71 -61.50 -17.13

92 Florida Atlantic -11.03 -97.43 -21.76

93 Tulsa -15.00 -60.92 -23.64

94 LA Monroe -15.67 -68.50 -25.10

95 SMU -20.44 -26.94 -27.56

96 Middle Tenn. St. -13.58 -131.35 -27.73

97 South Florida -18.08 -76.42 -28.75

98 Nevada -14.17 -139.88 -29.16

99 Colorado St. -11.17 -185.17 -29.21

100 LA Lafayette -13.89 -144.83 -29.23

101 Kansas -15.67 -152.33 -32.05

102 Louisiana Tech -19.92 -98.83 -32.88

103 Kent St. -16.08 -161.38 -33.32

104 East. Michigan -21.50 -80.83 -33.35

105 Tulane -18.04 -133.92 -33.47

106 New Mexico -20.54 -97.19 -33.52

107 UNLV -19.88 -117.67 -34.39

108 Purdue -23.06 -77.15 -34.98

109 Hawaii -19.73 -131.02 -35.32

110 Arkansas St. -20.17 -144.42 -36.97

111 Temple -16.00 -214.33 -37.61

112 UAB -26.25 -136.89 -43.88

113 UTEP -23.73 -182.90 -44.58

114 W. Michigan -26.75 -158.54 -46.30

115 Massachusetts -24.83 -209.78 -48.18

116 Florida Intl. -26.89 -205.61 -50.38

117 Idaho -26.63 -212.83 -50.66

118 Air Force -24.33 -248.67 -50.79

119 Cent. Michigan -33.75 -133.58 -52.90

120 Southern Miss -34.33 -129.54 -53.29

121 Wake Forest -27.38 -254.46 -55.04

122 Troy -34.96 -155.67 -56.23

123 New Mexico St. -30.70 -278.13 -61.12

124 Miami (OH) -32.08 -415.83-74.27

Rank Team PD YD Score Conf

5 Louisville 33.22222 223.39 59.70 AAC

37 UCF 9.791667 85.21 19.20 AAC

43 Houston 8.527778 60.00 15.55 AAC

69 Rutgers -0.27778 -37.89 -3.49 AAC

84 Cincinnati -8.33333 -34.28 -13.17 AAC

89 Connecticut -8.27778 -81.61 -17.03 AAC

90 Memphis -8.88889 -72.78 -17.05 AAC

95 SMU -20.4444 -26.94 -27.56 AAC

97 South Florida -18.0833 -76.42 -28.75 AAC

111 Temple -16 -214.33 -37.61 AAC

4 Clemson 35.33333 223.67 62.34 ACC

7 Florida St. 32.55556 214.50 58.14 ACC

15 Miami (FL) 19.36111 164.03 37.60 ACC

18 Virginia Tech 17.125 171.08 35.42 ACC

26 N.C. State 12.22222 146.50 27.30 ACC

28 Syracuse 18.83333 28.33 25.68 ACC

39 Georgia Tech 6.666667 126.67 18.77 ACC

54 Maryland 3.333333 67.17 9.71 ACC

55 Pittsburgh 3.375 34.25 7.02 ACC

65 Virginia -1 0.17 -1.22 ACC

66 Duke -3.125 23.42 -1.93 ACC

72 Boston Coll. 0.055556 -60.36 -4.94 ACC

77 North Carolina -4.83333 -46.63 -9.86 ACC

121 Wake Forest -27.375 -254.46 -55.04 ACC

9 Iowa 29.625 126.54 47.21 B10

20 Illinois 24.94444 41.39 34.34 B10

21 Penn St. 17.125 156.58 34.21 B10

22 Nebraska 18.55556 134.61 34.16 B10

23 Ohio St. 16.79167 150.79 33.32 B10

24 Wisconsin 11.75 181.63 29.63 B10

46 Indiana 12.16667 -9.83 14.26 B10

58 Michigan 3.354167 21.81 5.97 B10

61 Northwestern 4.333333 -4.44 5.00 B10

79 Minnesota 2.666667 -178.60 -11.52 B10

81 Michigan St. -9.88889 2.47 -12.05 B10

108 Purdue -23.0625 -77.15 -34.98 B10

1 Baylor 54.08333 397.50 100.00 B12

31 Oklahoma 9.958333 131.60 23.26 B12

32 West Virginia 10.27778 110.67 21.92 B12

33 Texas Tech 16.16667 1.83 20.18 B12

35 Oklahoma St. 8.416667 114.25 19.91 B12

42 TCU 10 43.17 15.97 B12

45 Iowa St. 7.833333 57.83 14.51 B12

60 Texas 3.666667 7.48 5.16 B12

71 Kansas St. 1.833333 -78.83 -4.27 B12

101 Kansas -15.6667 -152.33 -32.05 B12

53 East Carolina 8.916667 -15.17 9.79 CUSA

59 Rice 3.145833 16.27 5.25 CUSA

68 UT-San Antonio -7.13333 64.43 -3.49 CUSA

75 Marshall -7.77778 12.94 -8.56 CUSA

82 North Texas -1 -131.56 -12.16 CUSA

92 Florida Atlantic -11.0333 -97.43 -21.76 CUSA

93 Tulsa -15 -60.92 -23.64 CUSA

96 Middle Tenn. St. -13.5833 -131.35 -27.73 CUSA

102 Louisiana Tech -19.9167 -98.83 -32.88 CUSA

105 Tulane -18.0417 -133.92 -33.47 CUSA

112 UAB -26.25 -136.89 -43.88 CUSA

113 UTEP -23.7292 -182.90 -44.58 CUSA

116 Florida Intl. -26.8889 -205.61 -50.38 CUSA

120 Southern Miss -34.3333 -129.54 -53.29 CUSA

40 BYU 3.875 147.38 17.04 Ind

52 Notre Dame 5.566667 39.93 10.21 Ind

80 Navy -4.25 -77.50 -11.70 Ind

85 Army -8.66667 -32.33 -13.42 Ind

117 Idaho -26.6333 -212.83 -50.66 Ind

123 New Mexico St. -30.7 -278.13 -61.12 Ind

47 Ohio 10.22222 15.67 13.96 MAC

51 Buffalo 9.333333 -12.50 10.52 MAC

62 Ball St. 5.833333 -37.92 4.08 MAC

64 Northern Illinois 6.388889 -82.36 1.08 MAC

67 Toledo -1.375 -7.17 -2.30 MAC

76 Bowling Green -6.20833 -20.83 -9.42 MAC

91 Akron -9.70833 -61.50 -17.13 MAC

103 Kent St. -16.0833 -161.38 -33.32 MAC

104 East. Michigan -21.5 -80.83 -33.35 MAC

114 W. Michigan -26.75 -158.54 -46.30 MAC

115 Massachusetts -24.8333 -209.78 -48.18 MAC

119 Cent. Michigan -33.75 -133.58 -52.90 MAC

124 Miami (OH) -32.0833 -415.83 -74.27 MAC

48 Utah St. 5.229167 78.10 12.96 MWC

50 Boise St. 3.166667 82.54 10.78 MWC

56 Fresno St. 4.333333 17.33 6.81 MWC

73 Wyoming 0.75 -76.81 -5.45 MWC

83 San Jose St. -8.66667 -18.56 -12.28 MWC

86 San Diego St. -10.8056 -10.25 -14.24 MWC

98 Nevada -14.1667 -139.88 -29.16 MWC

99 Colorado St. -11.1667 -185.17 -29.21 MWC

106 New Mexico -20.5417 -97.19 -33.52 MWC

107 UNLV -19.875 -117.67 -34.39 MWC

109 Hawaii -19.7292 -131.02 -35.32 MWC

118 Air Force -24.3333 -248.67 -50.79 MWC

2 Washington 50.55556 381.83 94.33 P10

3 Oregon 40.44444 180.61 65.10 P10

8 UCLA 30.41667 215.19 55.55 P10

12 Arizona St. 22.52778 208.17 45.19 P10

13 Arizona 21.80556 168.47 41.00 P10

14 Utah 19.33333 169.67 38.04 P10

16 Stanford 20.16667 135.67 36.25 P10

30 Oregon St. 7.583333 169.92 23.50 P10

36 California 5.888889 149.94 19.74 P10

49 USC 4.066667 86.13 12.19 P10

57 Washington St. 2.729167 39.29 6.64 P10

78 Colorado -11.5 42.33 -10.73 P10

70 West. Kentucky -7.70833 69.46 -3.78 SBC

74 South Alabama -4.55556 -27.56 -7.93 SBC

87 Texas St. -0.77778 -167.50 -14.87 SBC

94 LA Monroe -15.6667 -68.50 -25.10 SBC

100 LA Lafayette -13.8889 -144.83 -29.23 SBC

110 Arkansas St. -20.1667 -144.42 -36.97 SBC

122 Troy -34.9583 -155.67 -56.23 SBC

6 Georgia 27.72917 289.40 58.38 SEC

10 Alabama 31.70833 80.00 45.92 SEC

11 Florida 18.33333 272.17 45.31 SEC

17 LSU 19.86667 130.30 35.43 SEC

19 South Carolina 15.16667 198.67 35.28 SEC

25 Texas A&M 17.625 92.21 29.49 SEC

27 Mississippi St. 14.22222 112.06 26.92 SEC

29 Missouri 16.77778 33.78 23.59 SEC

34 Auburn 13.33333 42.73 20.07 SEC

38 Mississippi 14.66667 10.00 19.00 SEC

41 Kentucky 5.416667 121.38 16.79 SEC

44 Tennessee 10.79167 14.54 14.58 SEC

63 Arkansas 1.375 7.50 2.33 SEC

88 Vanderbilt -6.625 -103.79 -16.82 SEC



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If I find time this week, I'll try to come up w/ DUSHEE's top picks against the spread in our gambling thread.  I'd be curious to see how it does.

 

Just eyeballing it (and I believe you mentioned it before) but the point differential seems to be fairly close to the betting line.  I'll add +4 for the home team and see where the biggest outliers are.

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