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Week 7 DUSHEE (2019)

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Duquesne Frog

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At about the mid-point in the season, DUSHEE is very high on the top of the B1G, with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State filling 3 of the top 4 spots in the ranking.  And DUSHEE is still super high on the Big XII-II, with WTF teams Iowa State (5) and TCU (15) still absurdly high in the rankings, the Frogs using the bye to climb 3 spots.

 

Here are the Frogs at this point ...

 

Frogs Week-to-Week

Opp:           @ Pur      SMU      Kan    |  @ ISU

PD:             22.20     15.40     34.25   |    -6.75

YD:            177.60  157.80   447.25  |    22.75

Score:         22.97    17.53      43.41  |    -3.45

 

Here is what those same numbers looked like last week:

Opp:           @ Pur      SMU      Kan    |  @ ISU

PD:              16.00    15.40    34.25    |    -8.67

YD:            132.25  157.80  447.25   |   12.33

Score:         16.91    17.72    43.96    |    -5.20

 

So you can see that strong performances from Iowa State and especially Purdue helped the Frogs out quite a bit during the bye.  SMU and Kansas both had byes last week, meaning that TCU's PD and YD for those games didn't budge; however the Score changed slightly since the Score is an adjusted PD based on how much the game YD deviates from the linear regression of YD as a function of PD for all games throughout the season.  Since that linear regression changed slightly, the Score for those opponents with byes changed slightly.

 

Frogs Next Opponent -- K-State

 

Next week, the Frogs take on Kansas State, a team DUSHEE is not terribly high on ...

 

Opp:           BGSU      @ MissSt      @ OkSt          Bay

PD:              24.75           8.00            -8.25      |    -3.50

YD:            162.00      -129.20       -253.00     |    35.50

Score:         23.95           -0.61         -17.14      |     -0.70

 

The Fightin' Snyders have a long history of doing much better in Point Differential than Yardage and that trend continues this year.  Getting outgained by almost 100 yards by Mississippi State and by almost 300 yards by Oklahoma State turn a solid win into an average one and a bad loss into a terrible one, based on DUSHEE Score. 

 

DUSHEE likes the Frogs a lot in this game, even on the road, putting the Frogs as 12.5 point favorites with a 74% chance of winning.

 

Top/Bottom Performances of the Week

 

+48.15 Wisconsinvs. MichSt (+38 MOV, +258 YM)

+41.91 Utah at OreSt (+45, +290)

+39.51 Oregon vs. Col (+42, +228)

 

-54.71 Toledo at BGSU (-13, -45)

-47.89 Rutgers at Ind (-35, -524)

-44.30 Vanderbilt vs. UNLV (-24, -75)

 

Conference Ratings

 

The Big XII-II still is the top conference, top-to-bottom.  The top half of the conference are all in the Top 25, including the two WTF teams.  The bottom of the conference is the best with Kansas at 83 and WVU at 68.  Compare that with the bottom two of the other P5 conferences: (ACC: GaTech 108, BC 98; B1G: Rut 125, Ill 103; PAC: OreSt 91, UCLA 87; SEC: Vandy 116, Tenn 82).

 

Last season I relentlessly mocked the AAC's "Power 6" ad campaign, but this season, they are right with the ACC (still slightly ahead, in fact).  The top of the AAC is pretty salty, with six teams all between 21 and 31 in the rankings (Navy, Memphis, UCF, Tulane, SMU, Cincy).  The bottom of the conference is still pretty terrible with USF, ECU, and UConn all ranked 100 or worse, but overall, they have taken a step up from last season.  The ACC, OTOH, is Snow White (Clemson, 8th) and the 13 dwarves.  Pitt is the next highest ranked ACC team at 30, which would put them 6th in the Big XII-II.

 

B12 12.42
SEC 10.79
B10 10.14
P12 4.94
AAC 1.73
ACC 1.60
MWC -5.72
SBC -9.15
CUSA -10.03
MAC -14.88

 

Overall Ratings

Top Gainers:

Ranking -- FIU +27

Score -- BGSU +18.43

 

Top Fallers:

Ranking -- Mary -27

Score -- Mary -10.31

 

  Week 7    
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Ohio St.  46.49 360.42 47.57 0 -1.49
2 Wisconsin  43.21 331.90 44.07 0 2.02
3 Alabama  35.76 217.44 33.85 0 -2.98
4 Penn St.  32.24 221.64 31.69 1 -4.68
5 Iowa St.  29.85 249.77 31.39 -1 -5.34
6 LSU  29.67 222.74 30.03 0 -3.06
7 Oklahoma  26.09 257.90 29.26 0 -1.92
8 Clemson  24.98 240.87 27.74 1 -1.56
9 Oregon  28.63 157.49 26.33 5 4.32
10 Auburn  27.03 162.06 25.48 0 -0.06
11 Georgia  21.69 198.90 23.61 -3 -6.88
12 Notre Dame  23.27 121.88 21.12 0 -3.31
13 Utah  19.03 171.30 20.57 8 4.68
14 Missouri  19.44 156.31 20.15 -3 -4.42
15 TCU  16.28 201.35 20.11 3 1.76
16 Texas  23.58 94.74 20.08 -1 -1.64
17 Michigan St.  17.54 176.37 19.81 -4 -2.65
18 Florida  17.24 165.07 19.09 1 1.87
19 Iowa  16.42 150.91 17.89 3 2.77
20 Michigan  17.59 119.64 17.23 -3 -1.77
21 Navy  15.71 136.20 16.74 -1 0.56
22 Baylor  16.74 108.69 16.16 -6 -4.72
23 Boise St.  12.48 170.03 16.14 10 6.17
24 Texas A&M  13.58 119.89 14.57 2 0.99
25 Memphis  14.63 91.70 13.97 -2 -1.06
26 UCF  12.54 114.42 13.62 -2 -1.02
27 Tulane  13.65 97.28 13.57 2 1.54
28 SMU  11.43 107.07 12.55 -3 -1.80
29 Air Force  9.93 125.85 12.41 1 0.46
30 Pittsburgh  9.00 124.75 11.74 -3 -1.54
31 Cincinnati  11.15 78.48 11.04 0 0.06
32 Appalachian State 13.61 26.63 10.30 3 0.91
33 Washington  15.16 2.58 10.22 1 0.54
34 South Carolina  11.70 47.23 9.97 4 2.01
35 USC  11.92 42.18 9.88 4 2.16
36 Minnesota  8.50 87.38 9.69 8 3.13
37 North Carolina  7.40 84.81 8.84 -1 0.00
38 Oklahoma St.  7.48 70.66 8.23 -10 -4.47
39 Indiana  4.10 110.76 7.83 7 2.04
40 West. Kentucky  7.05 57.90 7.36 12 2.66
41 Mississippi  6.52 48.35 6.57 -4 -2.21
42 Virginia  4.22 57.95 5.48 -10 -5.09
43 Texas Tech  3.92 56.75 5.22 11 0.76
44 Arizona St.  6.97 11.59 5.18 3 -0.22
45 Louisville  6.13 12.98 4.68 -5 -2.97
46 Miami (FL)  0.44 95.32 4.68 2 -0.48
47 Houston  5.04 20.84 4.32 -4 -2.36
48 California  9.34 -56.43 3.63 7 -0.70
49 LA Lafayette  5.22 1.57 3.55 -4 -2.34
50 Hawaii  1.02 62.19 3.54 -8 -3.60
51 Duke  6.73 -22.85 3.44 -2 -1.55
52 Utah St.  3.54 23.15 3.42 5 -0.42
53 Florida St.  4.38 2.63 3.04 0 -1.43
54 Wake Forest  4.16 3.48 2.93 7 0.21
55 Washington St.  2.21 29.63 2.84 10 2.04
56 UAB -1.66 73.79 2.29 8 0.94
57 Florida Intl.  2.36 5.23 1.81 27 9.21
58 Stanford  2.08 7.22 1.72 1 -1.04
59 Mississippi St.  2.12 3.23 1.56 -18 -5.93
60 Kansas St.  5.25 -46.18 1.38 6 1.54
61 Wyoming  7.46 -83.22 1.15 8 2.17
62 Nebraska  -0.54 22.59 0.68 -12 -4.22
63 Tulsa  -1.87 19.79 -0.33 -12 -5.04
64 Colorado  -0.66 -7.74 -0.80 -4 -3.52
65 Florida Atlantic  1.66 -41.51 -0.80 -7 -4.33
66 Southern Miss  -4.47 41.67 -1.06 14 4.46
67 San Diego St.  0.04 -24.93 -1.12 15 4.99
68 West Virginia  -0.73 -13.90 -1.13 -5 -3.20
69 Northwestern  -2.27 3.73 -1.34 -1 -0.54
70 Temple  -2.70 6.08 -1.52 8 3.04
71 Louisiana Tech  -0.54 -28.13 -1.65 21 9.49
72 Kentucky  -2.07 -37.85 -3.12 0 0.36
73 Army  -1.36 -55.39 -3.45 6 1.45
74 Arizona  -2.73 -41.38 -3.72 -12 -6.27
75 Cent. Michigan  -6.38 10.61 -3.76 -2 -0.16
76 W. Michigan  -2.56 -48.46 -3.93 -6 -2.65
77 Purdue  -1.92 -61.73 -4.12 20 7.41
78 Fresno St.  -5.82 -5.95 -4.15 -11 -3.43
79 Arkansas  -6.06 -29.59 -5.40 -3 -1.38
80 Syracuse  -3.00 -93.13 -6.28 6 1.23
81 BYU  -7.31 -31.74 -6.33 8 2.34
82 Tennessee  -10.71 17.51 -6.33 9 3.93
83 Maryland  -2.00 -110.68 -6.42 -27 -10.31
84 Kansas  -6.92 -41.33 -6.51 -9 -2.74
85 Rice  -7.58 -49.88 -7.34 3 0.39
86 N.C. State  -6.99 -59.15 -7.38 -5 -1.37
87 UCLA  -7.30 -61.74 -7.71 -10 -3.68
88 Ball St.  -8.60 -50.40 -8.05 19 7.33
89 Buffalo  -13.25 13.35 -8.22 -2 -0.50
90 North Texas  -10.73 -33.84 -8.71 -16 -5.00
91 Oregon St.  -9.90 -48.67 -8.84 -20 -6.84
92 Coastal Carolina -9.42 -56.05 -8.86 -9 -2.11
93 Georgia State -12.08 -24.23 -9.17 23 11.24
94 Arkansas St.  -7.13 -100.37 -9.37 6 2.95
95 Troy  -10.54 -56.20 -9.61 -1 1.72
96 Virginia Tech  -8.69 -102.81 -10.52 -1 0.88
97 Marshall  -13.48 -45.09 -11.06 17 8.27
98 Boston Coll.  -9.92 -105.46 -11.47 -8 -1.28
99 Kent St.  -9.40 -117.43 -11.67 13 6.74
100 South Florida  -12.70 -76.48 -11.98 -2 -0.05
101 Colorado St.  -16.48 -25.42 -12.15 2 1.25
102 LA Monroe  -13.26 -80.24 -12.53 -3 -0.58
103 Illinois  -7.53 -166.99 -12.70 -1 0.14
104 Georgia Southern -12.06 -102.00 -12.73 -8 -1.32
105 UNC-Charlotte -13.66 -88.51 -13.18 -12 -1.86
106 Toledo  -13.18 -117.14 -14.18 -21 -6.73
107 Northern Illinois  -17.98 -49.02 -14.24 6 4.28
108 Georgia Tech  -14.75 -101.92 -14.52 0 1.38
109 Ohio  -14.85 -104.85 -14.72 -3 0.46
110 East. Michigan  -11.94 -152.68 -14.98 -5 -0.05
111 Miami (OH)  -16.23 -107.85 -15.78 -2 0.49
112 San Jose St.  -15.24 -137.91 -16.50 -11 -4.12
113 Liberty -15.53 -136.43 -16.63 -2 0.36
114 Texas St. -17.20 -144.23 -18.10 -4 -1.51
115 Middle Tenn. St.  -16.56 -154.00 -18.12 5 4.70
116 Vanderbilt  -19.74 -125.50 -18.93 -12 -4.90
117 East Carolina  -18.60 -176.25 -20.51 1 2.11
118 Old Dominion -21.25 -165.97 -21.80 -3 -2.15
119 New Mexico  -23.62 -150.92 -22.69 -2 -1.41
120 New Mexico St.  -24.98 -143.62 -23.26 -1 -0.47
121 UNLV  -22.31 -199.57 -24.05 3 6.57
122 Nevada  -24.68 -176.76 -24.58 5 9.81
123 South Alabama -24.63 -187.00 -25.02 -1 1.33
124 UT-San Antonio -28.10 -177.95 -26.92 -1 2.56
125 Rutgers  -29.50 -223.45 -29.95 -4 -4.78
126 Connecticut  -29.87 -235.52 -30.75 0 2.36
127 Akron  -33.45 -230.58 -32.91 -2 -0.34
128 Bowling Green  -33.04 -306.15 -36.11 2 18.43
129 UTEP  -40.50 -308.00 -41.17 -1 6.94
130 Massachusetts -45.63 -347.06 -46.39 -1 1.95

 

By Conference

AAC

21 Navy  15.71 136.20 16.74
25 Memphis  14.63 91.70 13.97
26 UCF  12.54 114.42 13.62
27 Tulane  13.65 97.28 13.57
28 SMU  11.43 107.07 12.55
31 Cincinnati  11.15 78.48 11.04
47 Houston  5.04 20.84 4.32
63 Tulsa  -1.87 19.79 -0.33
70 Temple  -2.70 6.08 -1.52
100 South Florida  -12.70 -76.48 -11.98
117 East Carolina  -18.60 -176.25 -20.51
126 Connecticut  -29.87 -235.52 -30.75

 

ACC

8 Clemson  24.98 240.87 27.74
30 Pittsburgh  9.00 124.75 11.74
37 North Carolina  7.40 84.81 8.84
42 Virginia  4.22 57.95 5.48
45 Louisville  6.13 12.98 4.68
46 Miami (FL)  0.44 95.32 4.68
51 Duke  6.73 -22.85 3.44
53 Florida St.  4.38 2.63 3.04
54 Wake Forest  4.16 3.48 2.93
80 Syracuse  -3.00 -93.13 -6.28
86 N.C. State  -6.99 -59.15 -7.38
96 Virginia Tech  -8.69 -102.81 -10.52
98 Boston Coll.  -9.92 -105.46 -11.47
108 Georgia Tech  -14.75 -101.92 -14.52

 

B1G

1 Ohio St.  46.49 360.42 47.57
2 Wisconsin  43.21 331.90 44.07
4 Penn St.  32.24 221.64 31.69
17 Michigan St.  17.54 176.37 19.81
19 Iowa  16.42 150.91 17.89
20 Michigan  17.59 119.64 17.23
36 Minnesota  8.50 87.38 9.69
39 Indiana  4.10 110.76 7.83
62 Nebraska  -0.54 22.59 0.68
69 Northwestern  -2.27 3.73 -1.34
77 Purdue  -1.92 -61.73 -4.12
83 Maryland  -2.00 -110.68 -6.42
103 Illinois  -7.53 -166.99 -12.70
125 Rutgers  -29.50 -223.45 -29.95

 

BXII-II

5 Iowa St.  29.85 249.77 31.39
7 Oklahoma  26.09 257.90 29.26
15 TCU  16.28 201.35 20.11
16 Texas  23.58 94.74 20.08
22 Baylor  16.74 108.69 16.16
38 Oklahoma St.  7.48 70.66 8.23
43 Texas Tech  3.92 56.75 5.22
60 Kansas St.  5.25 -46.18 1.38
68 West Virginia  -0.73 -13.90 -1.13
84 Kansas  -6.92 -41.33 -6.51

 

CUSA

40 West. Kentucky  7.05 57.90 7.36
56 UAB -1.66 73.79 2.29
57 Florida Intl.  2.36 5.23 1.81
65 Florida Atlantic  1.66 -41.51 -0.80
66 Southern Miss  -4.47 41.67 -1.06
71 Louisiana Tech  -0.54 -28.13 -1.65
85 Rice  -7.58 -49.88 -7.34
90 North Texas  -10.73 -33.84 -8.71
97 Marshall  -13.48 -45.09 -11.06
105 UNC-Charlotte -13.66 -88.51 -13.18
115 Middle Tenn. St.  -16.56 -154.00 -18.12
118 Old Dominion -21.25 -165.97 -21.80
124 UT-San Antonio -28.10 -177.95 -26.92
129 UTEP  -40.50 -308.00 -41.17

 

Indies

12 Notre Dame  23.27 121.88 21.12
73 Army  -1.36 -55.39 -3.45
81 BYU  -7.31 -31.74 -6.33
113 Liberty -15.53 -136.43 -16.63
120 New Mexico St.  -24.98 -143.62 -23.26
130 Massachusetts -45.63 -347.06 -46.39

 

MAC

75 Cent. Michigan  -6.38 10.61 -3.76
76 W. Michigan  -2.56 -48.46 -3.93
88 Ball St.  -8.60 -50.40 -8.05
89 Buffalo  -13.25 13.35 -8.22
99 Kent St.  -9.40 -117.43 -11.67
106 Toledo  -13.18 -117.14 -14.18
107 Northern Illinois  -17.98 -49.02 -14.24
109 Ohio  -14.85 -104.85 -14.72
110 East. Michigan  -11.94 -152.68 -14.98
111 Miami (OH)  -16.23 -107.85 -15.78
127 Akron  -33.45 -230.58 -32.91
128 Bowling Green  -33.04 -306.15 -36.11

 

MWC

23 Boise St.  12.48 170.03 16.14
29 Air Force  9.93 125.85 12.41
50 Hawaii  1.02 62.19 3.54
52 Utah St.  3.54 23.15 3.42
61 Wyoming  7.46 -83.22 1.15
67 San Diego St.  0.04 -24.93 -1.12
78 Fresno St.  -5.82 -5.95 -4.15
101 Colorado St.  -16.48 -25.42 -12.15
112 San Jose St.  -15.24 -137.91 -16.50
119 New Mexico  -23.62 -150.92 -22.69
121 UNLV  -22.31 -199.57 -24.05
122 Nevada  -24.68 -176.76 -24.58

 

P12

9 Oregon  28.63 157.49 26.33
13 Utah  19.03 171.30 20.57
33 Washington  15.16 2.58 10.22
35 USC  11.92 42.18 9.88
44 Arizona St.  6.97 11.59 5.18
48 California  9.34 -56.43 3.63
55 Washington St.  2.21 29.63 2.84
58 Stanford  2.08 7.22 1.72
64 Colorado  -0.66 -7.74 -0.80
74 Arizona  -2.73 -41.38 -3.72
87 UCLA  -7.30 -61.74 -7.71
91 Oregon St.  -9.90 -48.67 -8.84

 

SBC

32 Appalachian State 13.61 26.63 10.30
49 LA Lafayette  5.22 1.57 3.55
92 Coastal Carolina -9.42 -56.05 -8.86
93 Georgia State -12.08 -24.23 -9.17
94 Arkansas St.  -7.13 -100.37 -9.37
95 Troy  -10.54 -56.20 -9.61
102 LA Monroe  -13.26 -80.24 -12.53
104 Georgia Southern -12.06 -102.00 -12.73
114 Texas St. -17.20 -144.23 -18.10
123 South Alabama -24.63 -187.00 -25.02

 

SEC

3 Alabama  35.76 217.44 33.85
6 LSU  29.67 222.74 30.03
10 Auburn  27.03 162.06 25.48
11 Georgia  21.69 198.90 23.61
14 Missouri  19.44 156.31 20.15
18 Florida  17.24 165.07 19.09
24 Texas A&M  13.58 119.89 14.57
34 South Carolina  11.70 47.23 9.97
41 Mississippi  6.52 48.35 6.57
59 Mississippi St.  2.12 3.23 1.56
72 Kentucky  -2.07 -37.85 -3.12
79 Arkansas  -6.06 -29.59 -5.40
82 Tennessee  -10.71 17.51 -6.33
116 Vanderbilt  -19.74 -125.50 -18.93

 

 

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