Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
  • entries
    82
  • comments
    48
  • views
    44,381

Inaugural 2019 DUSHEE Ratings!!!

Sign in to follow this  
Duquesne Frog

26 views

Well, so, as is the case every year, I always need to present this first ranking with the traditional caveat, and the need for this caveat is exemplified by the two teams facing off in Ames, Iowa on Saturday.  If DUSHEE had anything to say about it, Gameday should ditch Auburn-Florida and camp out at Jack Brice Stadium for a match up of #2 vs. #9.  Congratulations, TCU and ISU are the WTF teams of early 2019.

 

How in the hell is Iowa State, a team that lost (closely) to both Iowa and Baylor (and who barely beat Northern Iowa, although DUSHEE has no idea that FCS game happened) considered the #2 team in the country?

 

Well, we'll get to that in the "Next Opponent" section.  Suffice it to say, the traditional caveat for the inaugural DUSHEE is as always ... IT'S EARLY!  Not a lot of games have been played.  Statistical dependence is weak.  Some teams have played absurdly easy schedules which skews the comparative performance metrics used by DUSHEE.  This is how you get a ranking where a 2-loss Iowa State team that has been really unimpressive so far this year is the #2 team in the country.

 

All of that said, outside of ISU and TCU, I don't think the top 25 looks all that bad.  Navy has no business being as high as it is, but it has only played 2 games.  You can quibble about the relative ordering, but most of the teams at the top are teams you would expect to be there.

 

Frogs Week-to-Week

 

DUSHEE is much higher on the Frogs performance so far this season than most of the Frog faithful seem to be.  Here are the Frogs numbers week-to-week:

 

Opp:           @ Pur     SMU        Kan

PD:              23.67    18.50    41.67

YD:            247.00  210.75  508.67

Score:         27.83    22.62    52.60

 

Right now, DUSHEE thinks SMU is a pretty good team (ranked 21).  SMU has beaten 3 of their 5 opponents by at least 3 TDs; against the rest of their schedule, SMU is winning, on average, by 21.5 points and outgaining them by 193 yards.

 

And the Frogs are helped quite a bit by Kansas' inexplicable throttling of BC by 24 points, which makes the Frogs 37-point margin Saturday look really good.

 

So let's get to that Next Opponent section ...

 

Next Opponent: Iowa State Bird-Tornados

 

So let's take a look at the Cyclones and why DUSHEE thinks so highly of them.

 

Opp:         Iowa  ULaMon    @ Bay

PD:          32.00       58.00     26.50

YD:        429.00     274.50   226.50

Score:     42.26       52.06     28.72

 

Iowa State curbstomped ULaMon, 72-20, so the high score there makes sense.  The Iowa game looks really good for Iowa St. because the Hawkeyes have kicked the crap out of the three other cupcakes they have played: MiamiOh 38-14, Rutgers 30-0, and MTSU 48-3.  So, on average, Iowa has beaten everybody but ISU by an average of 33 points and outgained them by 324 yards.  So by only losing by a point and outgaining them by over 100 yards, ISU looks great comparatively.  Obviously as Iowa works through the rest of their B1G schedule, this score will come way down.  And the Baylor loss looks good comparatively based largely on the Rapeys 63-14 blowout of UTSA.

 

So Iowa State is a case study for the early-in-the-season caveat.  Their two (close) losses have come at the hands of two opponents who have played and largely destroyed cupcake schedules.  So comparatively, Iowa State looks great compared to those cupcakes.

 

Conference Ratings

 

And from a TCU and Big XII-II centric viewpoint, there is a lot to like about this inaugural ranking.  Right now DUSHEE LOVES the Big XII-II.  It is BY FAR the highest rated conference, nearly 5 points higher than the SEC, a TD higher than the B1G.  Right now, DUSHEE thinks the top half of the conference is very good, with 6 teams in the top 26 in the country.  After my railing against the American Athletic Conference all of last year, this year, DUSHEE has the AAC slightly higher ranked than the ACC.

 

B12 17.39
SEC 12.53
B10 10.91
P12 7.04
AAC 1.93
ACC 1.45
MWC -7.99
SBC -12.09
CUSA -15.76
MAC -18.17

 

Here is a catchup of all the top 3 and bottom 3 performances of the first 5 weeks.  Again, remember that games against FCS opponents are not considered.

 

Top 3/Bottom 3

 

Week 1:

67.46 - Alabama vs Duke (neutral field) (+39 PM, +310 YM)

48.01 - Auburn vs. Ore (neutral field) (+6, +56)

38.86 - LSU vs. GaSo (+52, +388)

 

-62.44 - UMass at Rut (-27, -245)

-53.93 - NMSU at WSU (-51, -299)

-48.77 - Liberty vs. Syr (-24, -174)

 

Week 2:

68.74 - Wisconsin vs. CMU (+61 PM, +524 YM)

66.10 - Ohio St. vs. Cin (+42, +235)

56.44 - Oregon vs. Nev (+71, +431)

 

-75.71 - Syracuse at Mary (-43, -250)

-64.91 - UTEP at TTech (-35, -282)

-64.63 - Nevada at Ore (-71, -431)

 

Week 3:

65.88 - UGa vs. ArkSt (+55 PM, +436 YM)

52.98 - Ohio St. at Ind (+41, +263)

51.44 - W. Michigan vs. GaSt (+47, +358)

 

-60.65 - Georgia St. at WMU (-47, -358)

-59.53 - UMass at Char (-35, -271)

-51.51 - Akron at CMU (-21, -204)

 

Week 4:

53.72 - Ohio St. vs. MiaOh (+71 PM, +469 YM)

52.06 - Iowa St. (+52, +289)

48.87 - Wisconsin vs. Mich (+21, +188)

 

-81.58 - Bowling Green at Kent St. (-42, -388)

-57.07 - UTEP vs. Nev (-16, -125)

-50.23 - UConn at Ind (-35, -285)

 

Week 5:

80.75 - Penn St. vs. Mary (+59 PM, +494 YM)

59.70 - Ohio St. at Neb (+41, +352)

54.03 - Oklahoma vs. TTech (+39, +332)

 

-53.07 - Nevada vs. Haw (-51, -309)

-52.36 - Maryland at PSU (-59, -494)

-49.20 - Rutgers at Mich (-52, -322)

 

Rankings:

Week 4
Rank Team PD YD Score
1 Ohio St.  50.88 372.12 52.08
2 Iowa St.  38.83 310.00 41.01
3 Auburn  38.45 243.08 37.49
4 Wisconsin  36.04 274.13 37.40
5 Alabama  38.00 239.35 37.01
6 Georgia  36.22 251.89 36.44
7 Oklahoma  33.11 286.33 36.04
8 Penn St.  37.00 201.17 34.48
9 TCU  27.94 322.14 34.35
10 Clemson  26.23 254.75 29.92
11 Notre Dame  32.71 162.42 29.73
12 Texas  30.71 177.67 29.14
13 LSU  30.17 152.22 27.54
14 Oregon  28.78 146.61 26.34
15 Michigan St.  21.33 228.53 25.37
16 Oklahoma St.  22.04 195.00 24.21
17 Missouri  22.11 152.28 22.17
18 Memphis  19.33 189.78 22.15
19 Navy  14.00 216.75 19.91
20 Washington  24.54 64.04 19.49
21 SMU  15.17 190.30 19.40
22 Iowa  16.17 139.29 17.57
23 Pittsburgh  13.13 146.67 15.91
24 Texas A&M  14.25 128.83 15.79
25 Michigan  16.38 99.79 15.79
26 Baylor  11.75 147.33 15.02
27 UCF  13.69 113.58 14.67
28 Florida  13.08 118.17 14.49
29 Utah  12.06 132.08 14.49
30 Arizona St.  15.85 65.29 13.76
31 Boise St.  7.58 172.25 13.46
32 Air Force  7.50 133.61 11.52
33 Mississippi St.  11.95 62.17 11.00
34 Utah St.  8.56 105.56 10.85
35 Mississippi  9.90 65.44 9.79
36 Virginia  9.85 60.81 9.54
37 North Carolina  10.08 55.42 9.43
38 Indiana  6.44 105.00 9.41
39 Cincinnati  8.06 72.96 8.93
40 USC  10.07 36.80 8.51
41 Hawaii  5.92 85.67 8.12
42 Appalachian State 13.11 -20.17 7.76
43 Nebraska  7.17 59.60 7.69
44 Houston  10.63 1.42 7.15
45 Wake Forest  9.63 0.63 6.45
46 Tulane  9.39 -4.61 6.03
47 South Carolina  5.75 32.50 5.42
48 Florida Atlantic  4.56 40.02 4.99
49 Duke  9.00 -21.58 4.95
50 Colorado  6.23 8.04 4.55
51 Louisville  5.53 6.25 3.99
52 Tulsa  3.98 20.77 3.67
53 California  8.25 -56.67 2.74
54 Florida St.  3.67 5.87 2.73
55 Miami (FL)  -0.89 67.92 2.72
56 Kansas St.  8.14 -71.44 1.94
57 LA Lafayette  2.83 -5.38 1.63
58 Arizona  1.03 -18.94 -0.24
59 Washington St.  0.27 -15.96 -0.60
60 Northwestern  -2.46 13.31 -0.99
61 East. Michigan  1.17 -37.89 -1.07
62 UCLA  0.90 -34.67 -1.09
63 West Virginia  -0.33 -18.39 -1.12
64 UAB -4.83 42.56 -1.15
65 W. Michigan  -2.13 3.25 -1.26
66 Oregon St.  -5.56 49.67 -1.28
67 Kentucky  1.25 -50.13 -1.61
68 Wyoming  6.21 -121.00 -1.76
69 Coastal Carolina -2.75 -2.92 -1.98
70 Arkansas St.  -2.00 -16.13 -2.12
71 Stanford  -0.90 -31.30 -2.13
72 Southern Miss  -6.25 21.75 -3.11
73 Texas Tech  -3.67 -14.00 -3.13
74 Kansas  -3.08 -30.33 -3.54
75 Minnesota  -6.50 10.11 -3.84
76 San Diego St.  -4.33 -26.00 -4.16
77 Fresno St.  -7.00 0.58 -4.64
78 North Texas  -8.44 -1.38 -5.69
79 Maryland  2.06 -148.06 -5.85
80 West. Kentucky  -5.67 -49.67 -6.20
81 Rice  -7.00 -58.23 -7.51
82 N.C. State  -8.38 -40.88 -7.58
83 BYU  -7.00 -61.55 -7.67
84 Buffalo  -13.54 13.75 -8.36
85 Arkansas  -10.88 -35.00 -8.96
86 Purdue  -10.92 -36.38 -9.05
87 Boston Coll.  -9.21 -65.13 -9.32
88 Army  -8.78 -72.11 -9.37
89 Troy  -10.47 -56.00 -9.71
90 UNC-Charlotte -10.17 -64.04 -9.90
91 Illinois  -4.38 -147.31 -10.10
92 Temple  -12.44 -40.00 -10.25
93 Vanderbilt  -10.33 -75.79 -10.59
94 Syracuse  -7.81 -153.15 -12.68
95 Virginia Tech  -15.78 -56.00 -13.25
96 Cent. Michigan  -15.42 -61.56 -13.28
97 Colorado St.  -17.17 -45.46 -13.66
98 Miami (OH)  -12.50 -116.19 -14.00
99 Ball St.  -17.22 -57.44 -14.28
100 Toledo  -10.86 -147.44 -14.43
101 San Jose St.  -13.78 -109.94 -14.55
102 Kent St.  -13.81 -131.67 -15.63
103 Georgia Southern -12.06 -159.17 -15.80
104 Liberty -16.54 -103.79 -16.09
105 Louisiana Tech  -15.29 -127.44 -16.41
106 Rutgers  -18.08 -107.08 -17.28
107 South Florida  -21.39 -74.39 -17.89
108 Marshall  -17.78 -164.33 -19.87
109 Texas St. -16.94 -179.10 -20.03
110 Tennessee  -24.33 -89.67 -20.60
111 Ohio  -17.83 -202.89 -21.79
112 Middle Tenn. St.  -19.78 -184.06 -22.17
113 Florida Intl.  -18.83 -199.17 -22.27
114 Georgia Tech  -25.83 -108.00 -22.49
115 Northern Illinois  -25.94 -108.17 -22.57
116 LA Monroe  -21.53 -168.64 -22.58
117 Old Dominion -25.44 -119.44 -22.79
118 Connecticut  -21.22 -179.78 -22.92
119 South Alabama -28.00 -166.19 -26.78
120 New Mexico St.  -29.52 -163.37 -27.65
121 East Carolina  -29.83 -159.44 -27.67
122 New Mexico  -30.08 -178.14 -28.75
123 Georgia State -31.89 -206.17 -31.32
124 Akron  -31.90 -231.07 -32.54
125 UT-San Antonio -39.44 -168.83 -34.53
126 Nevada  -33.92 -256.83 -35.14
127 UNLV  -35.22 -280.67 -37.18
128 Massachusetts -44.19 -325.92 -45.36
129 UTEP  -51.72 -400.78 -54.04
130 Bowling Green  -53.78 -470.11 -58.79

 

By Conference:

AAC:

18 Memphis  19.33 189.78 22.15
19 Navy  14.00 216.75 19.91
21 SMU  15.17 190.30 19.40
27 UCF  13.69 113.58 14.67
39 Cincinnati  8.06 72.96 8.93
44 Houston  10.63 1.42 7.15
46 Tulane  9.39 -4.61 6.03
52 Tulsa  3.98 20.77 3.67
92 Temple  -12.44 -40.00 -10.25
107 South Florida  -21.39 -74.39 -17.89
118 Connecticut  -21.22 -179.78 -22.92
121 East Carolina  -29.83 -159.44 -27.67

 

ACC

10 Clemson  26.23 254.75 29.92
23 Pittsburgh  13.13 146.67 15.91
36 Virginia  9.85 60.81 9.54
37 North Carolina  10.08 55.42 9.43
45 Wake Forest  9.63 0.63 6.45
49 Duke  9.00 -21.58 4.95
51 Louisville  5.53 6.25 3.99
54 Florida St.  3.67 5.87 2.73
55 Miami (FL)  -0.89 67.92 2.72
82 N.C. State  -8.38 -40.88 -7.58
87 Boston Coll.  -9.21 -65.13 -9.32
94 Syracuse  -7.81 -153.15 -12.68
95 Virginia Tech  -15.78 -56.00 -13.25
114 Georgia Tech  -25.83 -108.00 -22.49

 

B1G

1 Ohio St.  50.88 372.12 52.08
4 Wisconsin  36.04 274.13 37.40
8 Penn St.  37.00 201.17 34.48
15 Michigan St.  21.33 228.53 25.37
22 Iowa  16.17 139.29 17.57
25 Michigan  16.38 99.79 15.79
38 Indiana  6.44 105.00 9.41
43 Nebraska  7.17 59.60 7.69
60 Northwestern  -2.46 13.31 -0.99
75 Minnesota  -6.50 10.11 -3.84
79 Maryland  2.06 -148.06 -5.85
86 Purdue  -10.92 -36.38 -9.05
91 Illinois  -4.38 -147.31 -10.10
106 Rutgers  -18.08 -107.08 -17.28

 

BXII-II

2 Iowa St.  38.83 310.00 41.01
7 Oklahoma  33.11 286.33 36.04
9 TCU  27.94 322.14 34.35
12 Texas  30.71 177.67 29.14
16 Oklahoma St.  22.04 195.00 24.21
26 Baylor  11.75 147.33 15.02
56 Kansas St.  8.14 -71.44 1.94
63 West Virginia  -0.33 -18.39 -1.12
73 Texas Tech  -3.67 -14.00 -3.13
74 Kansas  -3.08 -30.33 -3.54

 

CUSA

48 Florida Atlantic  4.56 40.02 4.99
64 UAB -4.83 42.56 -1.15
72 Southern Miss  -6.25 21.75 -3.11
78 North Texas  -8.44 -1.38 -5.69
80 West. Kentucky  -5.67 -49.67 -6.20
81 Rice  -7.00 -58.23 -7.51
90 UNC-Charlotte -10.17 -64.04 -9.90
105 Louisiana Tech  -15.29 -127.44 -16.41
108 Marshall  -17.78 -164.33 -19.87
112 Middle Tenn. St.  -19.78 -184.06 -22.17
113 Florida Intl.  -18.83 -199.17 -22.27
117 Old Dominion -25.44 -119.44 -22.79
125 UT-San Antonio -39.44 -168.83 -34.53
129 UTEP  -51.72 -400.78 -54.04

 

Indies

11 Notre Dame  32.71 162.42 29.73
83 BYU  -7.00 -61.55 -7.67
88 Army  -8.78 -72.11 -9.37
104 Liberty -16.54 -103.79 -16.09
120 New Mexico St.  -29.52 -163.37 -27.65
128 Massachusetts -44.19 -325.92 -45.36

 

MAC

61 East. Michigan  1.17 -37.89 -1.07
65 W. Michigan  -2.13 3.25 -1.26
84 Buffalo  -13.54 13.75 -8.36
96 Cent. Michigan  -15.42 -61.56 -13.28
98 Miami (OH)  -12.50 -116.19 -14.00
99 Ball St.  -17.22 -57.44 -14.28
100 Toledo  -10.86 -147.44 -14.43
102 Kent St.  -13.81 -131.67 -15.63
111 Ohio  -17.83 -202.89 -21.79
115 Northern Illinois  -25.94 -108.17 -22.57
124 Akron  -31.90 -231.07 -32.54
130 Bowling Green  -53.78 -470.11 -58.79

 

MWC

31 Boise St.  7.58 172.25 13.46
32 Air Force  7.50 133.61 11.52
34 Utah St.  8.56 105.56 10.85
41 Hawaii  5.92 85.67 8.12
68 Wyoming  6.21 -121.00 -1.76
76 San Diego St.  -4.33 -26.00 -4.16
77 Fresno St.  -7.00 0.58 -4.64
97 Colorado St.  -17.17 -45.46 -13.66
101 San Jose St.  -13.78 -109.94 -14.55
122 New Mexico  -30.08 -178.14 -28.75
126 Nevada  -33.92 -256.83 -35.14
127 UNLV  -35.22 -280.67 -37.18

 

P12

14 Oregon  28.78 146.61 26.34
20 Washington  24.54 64.04 19.49
29 Utah  12.06 132.08 14.49
30 Arizona St.  15.85 65.29 13.76
40 USC  10.07 36.80 8.51
50 Colorado  6.23 8.04 4.55
53 California  8.25 -56.67 2.74
58 Arizona  1.03 -18.94 -0.24
59 Washington St.  0.27 -15.96 -0.60
62 UCLA  0.90 -34.67 -1.09
66 Oregon St.  -5.56 49.67 -1.28
71 Stanford  -0.90 -31.30 -2.13

 

SBC

42 Appalachian State 13.11 -20.17 7.76
57 LA Lafayette  2.83 -5.38 1.63
69 Coastal Carolina -2.75 -2.92 -1.98
70 Arkansas St.  -2.00 -16.13 -2.12
89 Troy  -10.47 -56.00 -9.71
103 Georgia Southern -12.06 -159.17 -15.80
109 Texas St. -16.94 -179.10 -20.03
116 LA Monroe  -21.53 -168.64 -22.58
119 South Alabama -28.00 -166.19 -26.78
123 Georgia State -31.89 -206.17 -31.32

 

SEC

3 Auburn  38.45 243.08 37.49
5 Alabama  38.00 239.35 37.01
6 Georgia  36.22 251.89 36.44
13 LSU  30.17 152.22 27.54
17 Missouri  22.11 152.28 22.17
24 Texas A&M  14.25 128.83 15.79
28 Florida  13.08 118.17 14.49
33 Mississippi St.  11.95 62.17 11.00
35 Mississippi  9.90 65.44 9.79
47 South Carolina  5.75 32.50 5.42
67 Kentucky  1.25 -50.13 -1.61
85 Arkansas  -10.88 -35.00 -8.96
93 Vanderbilt  -10.33 -75.79 -10.59
110 Tennessee  -24.33 -89.67 -20.60
Sign in to follow this  


0 Comments


Recommended Comments

There are no comments to display.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...