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2018 DUSHEE Wrap-up

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Duquesne Frog

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It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season.  DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done.  The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread.  And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening lines set back in early December.

 

Here is how the models did:

           
Model       SU   ATS
DUSHEE O       19 - 19   20 - 18
DUSHEE XC       18 - 20   18 - 20
Sagarin       19 - 19   27 - 11
SRS       19 - 19   25 - 13
Vegas       15 - 23  

 

If you bet using Sagarin or SRS, you made out pretty well during bowl season.  If you used DUSHEE, well, let me reiterate that gambling is a vice and the author does not promote or encourage sports betting of any kind.

 

Now my high school football coaches, forever wise, once taught me that excuses are like assholes and elbows ... everybody's got them and mine stink.  I'm not sure why my elbows smelled so badly, but I can nonetheless offer a few qualitative reasons for why the bowls are hard to pick. 

 

One, in the modern era where NFL hopefuls sit out the bowls, it is easy to argue that not all the teams have the same talent level they had when their regular season performance was measured.  One can imagine a way of trying to account for this similar to the WAR metric used in baseball, but ain't nobody got time for that.  West Virginia and Michigan both took pretty big hits to their personnel so it was quite predictable they would underperform compared to the regular season.

 

Two, is impossible to quantify the motivation teams have going into exhibition games that the CFP has probably made even less relevant than they used to be.  I mean, OBVIOUSLY the SEC was totally not into their games against opponents from all those other slummy conferences ...

 

All of that said, Sagarin and SRS also were only accounting for regular season performance and they did quite well picking winners against the spread.  But then, DUSHEE did quite well during the regular season.  And DUSHEE has done much better in other bowl seasons.  So I'm going to dismiss this bowl season as a fluke.  Dealers' prerogative ...

 

Best and Worst Bowl Performances

Top 6

59.87 Army vs. Houston

52.38 Texas A&M vs. NC State

52.37 Auburn vs. Purdue

51.88 Clemson vs. Alabama

51.38 Utah State vs. N. Texas

49.09 Clemson vs. Notre Dame

 

I posted the top 6 just to show how friggin' impressive Clemson was in the two playoff games, averaging 50 point better than an average team against, supposedly, two of the four best teams in the country.

 

Bottom 3

-46.27 Purdue vs. Auburn

-43.17 Houston vs. Army

-39.03 Temple vs. Duke

 

Conference Ratings

The Big XII-II leapt back over the B1G as the second best conference in college football, after what was by all accounts a pretty mediocre year for the conference.  Despite the relatively poor bowl showing, the SEC is still well ahead of everybody else.  The only reason why the ACC had a positive number was because Clemson was in the conference, otherwise the conference only marginally better than the MWC.

 

And the American ends up behind the Mountain West as the best "Group of 5."  Please change your marketing campaign, American Athletic Conference ...

 

SEC 10.19
B12 3.94
B10 3.58
ACC 1.41
P12 0.65
MWC -2.60
AAC -4.87
CUSA -5.98
SBC -6.41
MAC -6.43

 

Final Overall Ratings

Post-Bowl Final
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Clemson  35.47 262.13 36.32 1 2.11
2 Alabama  33.01 259.46 34.55 -1 -2.44
3 Georgia  22.37 165.34 22.91 0 -3.11
4 Michigan  18.94 183.43 21.49 0 -2.84
5 Oklahoma  19.63 157.55 20.71 0 0.07
6 Mississippi St.  17.35 157.05 19.16 0 -0.03
7 Ohio St.  16.89 141.68 18.11 0 -1.02
8 Texas A&M  15.46 160.18 18.05 4 2.57
9 Utah St.  19.53 75.39 16.67 12 3.23
10 LSU  15.13 115.89 15.69 8 1.91
11 Notre Dame  15.97 98.58 15.41 -2 -1.63
12 Boise St.  15.15 106.73 15.26 1 -0.01
13 Fresno St.  16.65 85.75 15.24 1 -0.03
14 Penn St.  15.47 96.83 15.00 -3 -0.87
15 UCF  17.93 61.56 14.93 -7 -3.38
16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 1 0.71
17 Missouri  13.59 106.57 14.21 -7 -2.44
18 Army  14.97 79.70 13.84 10 4.33
19 West Virginia  12.96 93.55 13.16 -4 -1.68
20 Iowa  14.37 73.48 13.13 -1 -0.46
21 Cincinnati  11.90 97.98 12.67 -5 -1.89
22 Ohio  12.81 84.73 12.63 1 0.57
23 Washington  11.03 105.02 12.43 1 0.43
24 Florida  12.27 78.59 11.98 3 1.39
25 Washington St.  11.78 79.28 11.68 -5 -1.84
26 Auburn  12.69 57.28 11.23 4 3.19
27 Utah  9.90 66.97 9.84 -2 -1.84
28 Wisconsin  7.27 82.38 8.83 7 2.21
29 N.C. State  7.83 72.62 8.73 -7 -3.45
30 Texas  8.67 41.63 7.80 4 1.06
31 Kentucky  9.29 30.33 7.66 0 -0.32
32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 4 1.18
33 Syracuse  8.23 23.92 6.64 5 0.63
34 Iowa St.  6.97 37.11 6.44 7 0.97
35 Temple  7.01 25.27 5.89 -9 -5.33
36 BYU  4.47 58.39 5.80 10 1.77
37 Michigan St.  4.60 54.94 5.72 0 -0.36
38 Miami (FL)  4.67 53.72 5.71 -9 -2.51
39 Oklahoma St.  5.20 30.41 4.94 4 0.10
40 Buffalo  4.72 36.44 4.91 -1 -1.08
41 North Texas  4.08 45.21 4.90 -9 -2.13
42 Virginia  4.08 20.27 3.70 16 1.63
43 Florida Atlantic  -0.01 72.62 3.50 2 -0.88
44 Marshall  2.80 33.07 3.46 7 0.45
45 South Carolina  4.16 7.72 3.15 -5 -2.41
46 Purdue  3.48 12.33 2.91 -13 -4.10
47 Memphis  3.20 13.44 2.78 -5 -2.20
48 Middle Tenn. St.  2.13 23.66 2.56 -1 -1.03
49 Oregon  3.67 0.85 2.49 -1 -1.09
50 Arizona St.  3.30 5.87 2.48 2 -0.49
51 Arkansas St.  0.04 50.07 2.45 2 -0.08
52 Minnesota  3.33 3.47 2.39 13 1.40
53 Air Force  0.85 32.07 2.12 6 0.26
54 Stanford  5.48 -32.83 2.07 -10 -2.38
55 Pittsburgh  2.35 8.36 1.97 1 -0.26
56 Southern Miss  -1.09 54.96 1.93 7 0.40
57 Miami (OH)  2.31 7.75 1.91 3 0.11
58 Nebraska  -0.77 45.03 1.67 -1 -0.55
59 Texas Tech  1.51 12.97 1.64 -5 -0.78
60 Troy  2.27 1.76 1.60 8 1.28
61 Duke  2.30 -11.77 0.96 23 4.32
62 Georgia Tech  0.33 14.09 0.90 -12 -2.20
63 Vanderbilt  3.22 -26.28 0.88 -14 -2.32
64 Boston Coll.  2.76 -21.81 0.79 -9 -1.50
65 Northwestern  2.93 -27.52 0.62 2 0.26
66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 5 0.50
67 Toledo  3.02 -31.75 0.48 -5 -1.16
68 TCU  -0.96 22.43 0.45 -2 -0.27
69 Maryland  1.26 -8.90 0.41 -5 -0.74
70 Mississippi  -3.70 49.63 -0.07 0 -0.12
71 Arizona  -4.60 50.71 -0.62 -2 -0.81
72 Wyoming  -1.23 2.89 -0.68 1 -0.22
73 East. Michigan  -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 -1 -0.84
74 Florida Intl.  0.20 -31.34 -1.38 4 0.55
75 USC  -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 -1 -0.77
76 San Diego St.  -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 -1 -1.18
77 Nevada  -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 0 -0.57
78 Houston  -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 -17 -4.15
79 Baylor  -4.33 9.21 -2.44 6 1.07
80 California  -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 -1 -0.49
81 Wake Forest  -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 8 1.67
82 Tulane  -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 5 1.20
83 Northern Illinois  -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 -7 -1.35
84 Indiana  -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 -4 -0.65
85 UCLA  -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 -3 -0.74
86 Louisiana Tech  -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 5 1.63
87 Colorado  -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 -1 -0.49
88 Kansas St.  -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 0 -0.29
89 Virginia Tech  -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 3 1.41
90 LA Lafayette  -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 -9 -2.48
91 Tennessee  -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 -1 -0.82
92 W. Michigan  -9.27 12.76 -5.56 -9 -2.42
93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 1 -0.03
94 Florida St.  -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 -1 -1.06
95 North Carolina  -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 4 -0.34
96 Kansas  -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 4 -0.17
97 Hawaii  -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 0 -0.87
98 South Florida  -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 -3 -1.68
99 LA Monroe  -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 2 0.24
100 Navy  -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 -2 -1.18
101 SMU  -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 -5 -1.56
102 Ball St.  -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 0 -0.75
103 Arkansas  -13.51 -50.63 -11.46 0 -0.40
104 Tulsa  -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 1 -0.80
105 West. Kentucky  -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 2 0.37
106 East Carolina  -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 -2 -1.66
107 Colorado St.  -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 -1 0.13
108 UNLV  -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 0 -0.21
109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 3 0.68
110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 -1 -0.22
111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 0 -0.51
112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 -2 -0.85
113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 1 0.06
114 New Mexico  -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 2 0.22
115 Akron  -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 -2 -0.35
116 Rutgers  -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 -1 -0.32
117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 0 -0.12
118 Illinois  -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 0 -0.23
119 Cent. Michigan  -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 0 -0.63
120 Bowling Green  -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 0 -0.55
121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 0 -0.03
122 Kent St.  -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 0 -0.21
123 San Jose St.  -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 2 0.05
124 UTEP  -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 0 -0.31
125 Oregon St.  -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 -2 -0.67
126 Rice  -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 1 -0.37
127 Louisville  -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 -1 -0.87
128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 0 0.09
129 New Mexico St.  -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 0 0.52
130 Connecticut  -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 0 -0.90

 

By Conference

AAC

15 UCF  17.93 61.56 14.93
21 Cincinnati  11.90 97.98 12.67
35 Temple  7.01 25.27 5.89
47 Memphis  3.20 13.44 2.78
78 Houston  -0.92 -36.67 -2.39
82 Tulane  -3.45 -10.41 -2.81
98 South Florida  -9.38 -61.55 -9.23
100 Navy  -7.57 -90.52 -9.43
101 SMU  -8.19 -85.39 -9.59
104 Tulsa  -12.64 -98.23 -13.18
106 East Carolina  -16.70 -45.95 -13.35
130 Connecticut  -32.24 -274.71 -34.78

 

ACC

1 Clemson  35.47 262.13 36.32
29 N.C. State  7.83 72.62 8.73
33 Syracuse  8.23 23.92 6.64
38 Miami (FL)  4.67 53.72 5.71
42 Virginia  4.08 20.27 3.70
55 Pittsburgh  2.35 8.36 1.97
61 Duke  2.30 -11.77 0.96
62 Georgia Tech  0.33 14.09 0.90
64 Boston Coll.  2.76 -21.81 0.79
81 Wake Forest  -2.22 -23.85 -2.64
89 Virginia Tech  -4.52 -32.81 -4.60
94 Florida St.  -8.60 -37.17 -7.53
95 North Carolina  -10.82 -33.00 -8.81
127 Louisville  -24.13 -131.13 -22.43

 

B1G

4 Michigan  18.94 183.43 21.49
7 Ohio St.  16.89 141.68 18.11
14 Penn St.  15.47 96.83 15.00
20 Iowa  14.37 73.48 13.13
28 Wisconsin  7.27 82.38 8.83
37 Michigan St.  4.60 54.94 5.72
46 Purdue  3.48 12.33 2.91
52 Minnesota  3.33 3.47 2.39
58 Nebraska  -0.77 45.03 1.67
65 Northwestern  2.93 -27.52 0.62
69 Maryland  1.26 -8.90 0.41
84 Indiana  -4.38 -5.50 -3.19
116 Rutgers  -17.66 -133.64 -18.23
118 Illinois  -18.82 -128.23 -18.75

 

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  19.63 157.55 20.71
19 West Virginia  12.96 93.55 13.16
30 Texas  8.67 41.63 7.80
34 Iowa St.  6.97 37.11 6.44
39 Oklahoma St.  5.20 30.41 4.94
59 Texas Tech  1.51 12.97 1.64
68 TCU  -0.96 22.43 0.45
79 Baylor  -4.33 9.21 -2.44
88 Kansas St.  -1.90 -64.13 -4.37
96 Kansas  -7.64 -78.21 -8.88

 

CUSA

32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28
41 North Texas  4.08 45.21 4.90
43 Florida Atlantic  -0.01 72.62 3.50
44 Marshall  2.80 33.07 3.46
48 Middle Tenn. St.  2.13 23.66 2.56
56 Southern Miss  -1.09 54.96 1.93
74 Florida Intl.  0.20 -31.34 -1.38
86 Louisiana Tech  -5.24 -0.94 -3.54
93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54
105 West. Kentucky  -13.14 -94.54 -13.33
111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88
124 UTEP  -21.31 -136.87 -20.83
126 Rice  -21.77 -163.45 -22.41
128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37

 

Indies

11 Notre Dame  15.97 98.58 15.41
18 Army  14.97 79.70 13.84
36 BYU  4.47 58.39 5.80
109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77
113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67
129 New Mexico St.  -23.98 -154.79 -23.47

 

MAC

22 Ohio  12.81 84.73 12.63
40 Buffalo  4.72 36.44 4.91
57 Miami (OH)  2.31 7.75 1.91
67 Toledo  3.02 -31.75 0.48
73 East. Michigan  -0.07 -15.96 -0.82
83 Northern Illinois  -1.79 -33.65 -2.82
92 W. Michigan  -9.27 12.76 -5.56
102 Ball St.  -10.36 -85.40 -11.04
115 Akron  -15.20 -159.55 -17.85
119 Cent. Michigan  -19.07 -137.17 -19.34
120 Bowling Green  -20.79 -116.78 -19.51
122 Kent St.  -20.51 -134.36 -20.17

 

MWC

9 Utah St.  19.53 75.39 16.67
12 Boise St.  15.15 106.73 15.26
13 Fresno St.  16.65 85.75 15.24
53 Air Force  0.85 32.07 2.12
72 Wyoming  -1.23 2.89 -0.68
76 San Diego St.  -2.08 -14.21 -2.08
77 Nevada  -2.90 -7.62 -2.30
97 Hawaii  -8.45 -69.25 -8.98
107 Colorado St.  -16.25 -54.51 -13.47
108 UNLV  -13.93 -109.27 -14.57
114 New Mexico  -14.33 -170.05 -17.78
123 San Jose St.  -17.05 -190.29 -20.57

 

P12

23 Washington  11.03 105.02 12.43
25 Washington St.  11.78 79.28 11.68
27 Utah  9.90 66.97 9.84
49 Oregon  3.67 0.85 2.49
50 Arizona St.  3.30 5.87 2.48
54 Stanford  5.48 -32.83 2.07
71 Arizona  -4.60 50.71 -0.62
75 USC  -1.54 -10.27 -1.52
80 California  -2.35 -20.69 -2.57
85 UCLA  -4.24 -12.64 -3.44
87 Colorado  -5.83 -4.53 -4.10
125 Oregon St.  -21.26 -140.68 -20.98

 

SBC

16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90
51 Arkansas St.  0.04 50.07 2.45
60 Troy  2.27 1.76 1.60
66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52
90 LA Lafayette  -5.78 -27.09 -5.17
99 LA Monroe  -10.52 -47.43 -9.31
110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85
112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01
117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60
121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68

 

SEC

2 Alabama  33.01 259.46 34.55
3 Georgia  22.37 165.34 22.91
6 Mississippi St.  17.35 157.05 19.16
8 Texas A&M  15.46 160.18 18.05
10 LSU  15.13 115.89 15.69
17 Missouri  13.59 106.57 14.21
24 Florida  12.27 78.59 11.98
26 Auburn  12.69 57.28 11.23
31 Kentucky  9.29 30.33 7.66
45 South Carolina  4.16 7.72 3.15
63 Vanderbilt  3.22 -26.28 0.88
70 Mississippi  -3.70 49.63 -0.07
91 Tennessee  -4.90 -42.55 -5.32
103 Arkansas  -13.51 -50.63 -11.46

 

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