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2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

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Duquesne Frog

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Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season.  Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan.  The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season.  Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves.  Same old, same old.  I don't think UCF is one of the 4 best teams in the country, but I'd be a hell of a lot more interested in the CFP if they were in the tournament.

 

But luckily for all you TFH subscribers, you have DUSHEE to keep you keen and interested.

 

None of the Top 12 moved in the rankings.  The gap tightened between Bama and Clemson, now with less than 3-points separating the top two teams.  NC-State fans can shelter from their Snowmageddon warmed by the solace that they rose the most in the rankings this week, riding their 55-point blowout of East Carolina to an 8-spot and over 4-point rise in DUSHEE to get back into the top 25.  ECU, conversely, experienced the largest drop, falling 10 spots and 4.5 points. 

 

UConn sealed the bottom spot, almost 10 points worse than New Mexico State.  To give you a sense of how bad UConn was this year, their TOP rated DUSHEE performance all season was in Week 1 in a 39-point loss to UCF.  They earned a -16.15 DUSHEE score for that performance.  And that was as good as they did all year.

 

TCU's week-to-week hasn't really changed much since I posted their numbers in the Week 13 blog post (Ohio State went up a little, UT and OU went down a little), and Cal's numbers are in the Bowl Preview.

 

So we'll jump to the Best and Worst Performers.

 

It is a pretty rare circumstance for the loser of a game to wind up in the top performers for the week, but Georgia did that in earning a 34.15 DUSHEE score while losing to Alabama by a TD.  It is not all that uncommon for a losing team to get a better score than a winning team; generally happening when a bad team keeps a game close against a good team.  I know this is a hard concept for many to wrap their brains around when in the traditional AP poll mindset ... the team that loses must drop!  But the goal of DUSHEE is to measure the relative strength of the teams, so if a good team goes into a game, say, 13 points better than another team, but only beats them by 7, that is an indication that the gap between those two teams isn't as large as was originally thought.  And that is what happened in the Georgia-Alabama game.  Georgia went in as a 13-point underdog (per DUSHEE) against the best team in the country.  They lost to that team by 7 and outgained them by almost 60. 

 

And that is the big flaw in the AP poll.  When two teams who are close to each other in the rankings play a close game, there is no reason to change their rankings relative to each other.  That is an indication that you had them ranked correctly to begin with.  There is no need to punish the loser by dropping them in the rankings.  Statistically, the teams were about even.  So despite losing, Georgia crept closer to Alabama, closing their gap with the Tide by a little more than 2 points.

 

Championship Week Top 3 Performers

55.96 -- NC State vs. ECU (55 MOV, 544 YM)

34.15 -- Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 MOV, 59 YM)

29.99 -- Clemson vs. Pitt (32 MOV, 229 YM)

 

Championship Week Bottom 3 Performers

-54.55 ECU at NCSU (-55 MOV, -544 YM)

-24.20 Akron at South Carolina (-25 MOV, -134 YM)

-20.51 Marshall at VaTech (-21 MOV, 16 YM)

 

And since we are in year-end mode, let's track down the top and bottom 10 performances for the whole year. 

 

2018 Season Top 10

63.66 - Clemson at Wake (60 MOV, 449 YM) (Week 6)

55.96 - NC State vs. E. Carolina (55 MOV, 544 YM) (Week 14)

53.97 - Ohio vs. Buffalo (35 MOV, 364 YM) (Week 12)

53.84 - Oklahoma vs. Fla. Atlantic (49 MOV, 326 YM) (Week 1)

53.38 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St. (50 MOV, 208 YM) (Week 2)

52.38 - Alabama at Mississippi (55 MOV, 269 YM) (Week 3)

51.54 - Michigan vs. Penn St. (35 MOV, 219 YM) (Week 10)

51.43 - Mississippi vs. La-Monroe (49 MOV, 399 YM) (Week 6)

51.42 - Alabama vs. Missouri (29 MOV, 352 YM) (Week 7)

50.54 - Clemson vs. Ga. Southern (31 MOV, 455 YM) (Week 3)

 

2018 Season Bottom 10

-62.98 UNLV vs. New Mexico (-36 MOV, -336 YM) (Week 6)

-59.78 La-Monroe at Mississippi (-49 MOV, -399 YM) (Week 6)

-58.71 UConn at E. Carolina (-34 MOV, -383 YM) (Week 12)

-57.87 UConn at Boise St. (-55 MOV, -629 YM) (Week 2)

-57.81 Liberty at Auburn (-53 MOV, -397 YM) (Week 12)

-57.46 Old Dominion at Liberty (-42 MOV, -290) (Week 1)

-56.58 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) (Week 13)

-54.55 E. Carolina at NC State (-55 MOV, -544 YM) (Week 14)

-53.82 Texas St. at Rutgers (-28 MOV, -247 YM) (Week 1)

-52.84 Rutgers at Kansas (-41 MOV, -270 YM) (Week 3)

 

Overall Ratings

Regular Season Final    
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Alabama  36.16 265.88 36.99 0 -1.30
2 Clemson  33.17 249.73 34.21 0 0.26
3 Georgia  25.54 185.56 26.02 0 0.91
4 Michigan  21.99 199.80 24.34 0 -0.14
5 Oklahoma  19.62 155.95 20.64 0 -0.41
6 Mississippi St.  18.01 148.26 19.19 0 -0.36
7 Ohio St.  17.57 153.04 19.13 0 0.33
8 UCF  20.28 98.78 18.30 0 -0.20
9 Notre Dame  17.32 113.45 17.04 0 -0.21
10 Missouri  16.75 113.10 16.65 0 -0.53
11 Penn St.  16.80 96.26 15.87 0 -0.35
12 Texas A&M  12.83 143.03 15.48 0 -0.25
13 Boise St.  15.06 108.02 15.27 2 0.13
14 Fresno St.  16.86 83.18 15.27 -1 -0.22
15 West Virginia  15.01 99.66 14.84 2 -0.22
16 Cincinnati  13.53 114.34 14.56 0 -0.58
17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 -3 -1.10
18 LSU  14.17 89.52 13.78 0 -0.51
19 Iowa  14.34 83.19 13.59 0 -0.16
20 Washington St.  12.64 105.29 13.53 0 -0.19
21 Utah St.  16.49 50.55 13.44 0 -0.11
22 N.C. State  11.35 95.12 12.17 8 4.15
23 Ohio  12.04 83.43 12.07 0 -0.20
24 Washington  10.97 96.78 12.00 1 0.52
25 Utah  12.05 75.17 11.68 -3 -1.06
26 Temple  11.81 69.03 11.22 -2 -0.66
27 Florida  10.67 71.65 10.59 0 0.01
28 Army  10.30 54.54 9.51 -2 -1.83
29 Miami (FL)  7.45 67.37 8.23 0 -0.09
30 Auburn  9.75 31.94 8.05 -2 -0.49
31 Kentucky  9.24 37.67 7.99 0 0.02
32 North Texas  5.99 62.68 7.03 1 -0.13
33 Purdue  7.40 43.03 7.02 -1 -0.16
34 Texas  7.86 31.00 6.74 1 -0.12
35 Wisconsin  5.05 67.14 6.62 1 -0.16
36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 1 -0.63
37 Michigan St.  5.34 52.01 6.08 1 -0.13
38 Syracuse  7.26 24.38 6.02 1 0.22
39 Buffalo  5.67 45.55 5.98 -5 -1.05
40 South Carolina  6.74 21.90 5.55 2 0.20
41 Iowa St.  6.93 17.59 5.47 -1 -0.27
42 Memphis  4.87 35.71 4.98 -1 -0.59
43 Oklahoma St.  4.46 38.56 4.84 0 -0.33
44 Stanford  7.44 -10.58 4.45 1 -0.18
45 Florida Atlantic  0.92 77.85 4.38 1 -0.24
46 BYU  2.80 44.73 4.04 1 -0.27
47 Middle Tenn. St.  3.78 22.12 3.59 3 0.38
48 Oregon  4.30 14.64 3.58 0 -0.19
49 Vanderbilt  5.72 -12.73 3.20 2 0.05
50 Georgia Tech  2.66 27.52 3.10 -1 -0.26
51 Marshall  2.50 27.90 3.02 -7 -1.78
52 Arizona St.  3.57 12.37 2.98 0 -0.14
53 Arkansas St.  1.11 37.01 2.53 0 -0.40
54 Texas Tech  2.39 16.94 2.41 0 -0.19
55 Boston Coll.  4.24 -11.06 2.29 7 0.69
56 Pittsburgh  2.95 5.45 2.23 1 -0.06
57 Nebraska  -0.34 50.34 2.21 -1 -0.15
58 Virginia  2.29 11.10 2.07 5 0.46
59 Air Force  0.49 31.57 1.86 0 -0.12
60 Miami (OH)  2.12 8.06 1.80 -2 -0.35
61 Houston  3.50 -11.79 1.76 -6 -0.69
62 Toledo  3.85 -19.18 1.64 -1 -0.20
63 Southern Miss  -1.42 51.01 1.53 -3 -0.33
64 Maryland  1.99 -3.64 1.15 1 -0.11
65 Minnesota  1.67 -2.49 0.99 -1 -0.29
66 TCU  -0.84 26.43 0.72 0 -0.15
67 Northwestern  2.21 -22.92 0.36 0 -0.45
68 Troy  1.09 -8.41 0.32 0 -0.25
69 Arizona  -3.90 57.62 0.19 0 -0.20
70 Mississippi  -3.37 47.31 0.05 2 -0.05
71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 0 -0.12
72 East. Michigan  0.15 -1.70 0.02 -2 -0.18
73 Wyoming  -1.03 4.54 -0.47 0 -0.25
74 USC  -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 0 -0.25
75 San Diego St.  -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 0 -0.23
76 Northern Illinois  -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 3 0.89
77 Nevada  -3.26 9.03 -1.73 -1 -0.27
78 Florida Intl.  -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 -1 -0.18
79 California  -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 -1 -0.18
80 Indiana  -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 1 0.03
81 LA Lafayette  -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 6 0.87
82 UCLA  -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 -2 -0.33
83 W. Michigan  -7.03 31.77 -3.15 0 0.03
84 Duke  -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 -2 -0.27
85 Baylor  -5.51 3.40 -3.51 0 -0.17
86 Colorado  -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 0 -0.18
87 Tulane  -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 -3 -0.78
88 Kansas St.  -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 0 -0.16
89 Wake Forest  -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 1 0.28
90 Tennessee  -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 -1 -0.24
91 Louisiana Tech  -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 0 -0.10
92 Virginia Tech  -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 6 2.35
93 Florida St.  -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 2 0.74
94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 -2 -0.36
95 South Florida  -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 -2 -0.53
96 SMU  -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 0 -0.20
97 Hawaii  -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 0 -0.12
98 Navy  -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 3 0.68
99 North Carolina  -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 0 -0.09
100 Kansas  -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 0 -0.18
101 LA Monroe  -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 1 -0.02
102 Ball St.  -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 1 0.04
103 Arkansas  -12.82 -51.70 -11.05 1 -0.28
104 East Carolina  -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 -10 -4.58
105 Tulsa  -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 0 -0.28
106 Colorado St.  -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 0 -0.10
107 West. Kentucky  -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 0 -0.16
108 UNLV  -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 0 -0.13
109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 0 0.00
110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 1 0.22
111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 -1 -0.45
112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 0 -0.01
113 Akron  -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 0 -0.90
114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 0 -0.17
115 Rutgers  -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 0 -0.18
116 New Mexico  -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 0 -0.24
117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 1 -0.09
118 Illinois  -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 -1 -0.17
119 Cent. Michigan  -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 0 -0.13
120 Bowling Green  -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 0 -0.17
121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 0 -0.32
122 Kent St.  -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 0 -0.14
123 Oregon St.  -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 0 0.14
124 UTEP  -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 0 -0.07
125 San Jose St.  -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 0 -0.13
126 Louisville  -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 0 0.27
127 Rice  -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 0 -0.07
128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 0 -0.20
129 New Mexico St.  -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 0 0.01
130 Connecticut  -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 0 -0.74

 

By Conference

AAC

8 UCF  20.28 98.78 18.30
16 Cincinnati  13.53 114.34 14.56
26 Temple  11.81 69.03 11.22
42 Memphis  4.87 35.71 4.98
61 Houston  3.50 -11.79 1.76
87 Tulane  -4.21 -24.74 -4.01
95 South Florida  -7.77 -48.87 -7.55
96 SMU  -6.68 -73.89 -8.03
98 Navy  -6.57 -79.94 -8.25
104 East Carolina  -15.16 -32.76 -11.70
105 Tulsa  -11.75 -93.75 -12.37
130 Connecticut  -31.53 -265.40 -33.88

 

ACC

2 Clemson  33.17 249.73 34.21
22 N.C. State  11.35 95.12 12.17
29 Miami (FL)  7.45 67.37 8.23
38 Syracuse  7.26 24.38 6.02
50 Georgia Tech  2.66 27.52 3.10
55 Boston Coll.  4.24 -11.06 2.29
56 Pittsburgh  2.95 5.45 2.23
58 Virginia  2.29 11.10 2.07
84 Duke  -1.51 -48.52 -3.36
89 Wake Forest  -3.23 -44.28 -4.30
92 Virginia Tech  -5.72 -45.49 -6.02
93 Florida St.  -7.66 -28.17 -6.47
99 North Carolina  -10.42 -31.50 -8.47
126 Louisville  -23.28 -124.69 -21.56

 

B1G

4 Michigan  21.99 199.80 24.34
7 Ohio St.  17.57 153.04 19.13
11 Penn St.  16.80 96.26 15.87
19 Iowa  14.34 83.19 13.59
33 Purdue  7.40 43.03 7.02
35 Wisconsin  5.05 67.14 6.62
37 Michigan St.  5.34 52.01 6.08
57 Nebraska  -0.34 50.34 2.21
64 Maryland  1.99 -3.64 1.15
65 Minnesota  1.67 -2.49 0.99
67 Northwestern  2.21 -22.92 0.36
80 Indiana  -3.72 -1.17 -2.54
115 Rutgers  -17.30 -131.61 -17.91
118 Illinois  -18.66 -125.56 -18.52

 

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  19.62 155.95 20.64
15 West Virginia  15.01 99.66 14.84
34 Texas  7.86 31.00 6.74
41 Iowa St.  6.93 17.59 5.47
43 Oklahoma St.  4.46 38.56 4.84
54 Texas Tech  2.39 16.94 2.41
66 TCU  -0.84 26.43 0.72
85 Baylor  -5.51 3.40 -3.51
88 Kansas St.  -1.47 -64.02 -4.08
100 Kansas  -7.39 -77.96 -8.70

 

CUSA

32 North Texas  5.99 62.68 7.03
36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10
45 Florida Atlantic  0.92 77.85 4.38
47 Middle Tenn. St.  3.78 22.12 3.59
51 Marshall  2.50 27.90 3.02
63 Southern Miss  -1.42 51.01 1.53
78 Florida Intl.  -0.15 -37.79 -1.93
91 Louisiana Tech  -6.29 -20.28 -5.17
94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50
107 West. Kentucky  -13.37 -99.00 -13.71
111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38
124 UTEP  -20.88 -136.14 -20.51
127 Rice  -21.15 -163.87 -22.04
128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47

 

Indies

9 Notre Dame  17.32 113.45 17.04
28 Army  10.30 54.54 9.51
46 BYU  2.80 44.73 4.04
112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45
114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74
129 New Mexico St.  -24.55 -157.34 -23.99

 

MAC

23 Ohio  12.04 83.43 12.07
39 Buffalo  5.67 45.55 5.98
60 Miami (OH)  2.12 8.06 1.80
62 Toledo  3.85 -19.18 1.64
72 East. Michigan  0.15 -1.70 0.02
76 Northern Illinois  -0.45 -24.20 -1.47
83 W. Michigan  -7.03 31.77 -3.15
102 Ball St.  -9.71 -78.83 -10.29
113 Akron  -14.78 -157.71 -17.50
119 Cent. Michigan  -18.47 -132.25 -18.72
120 Bowling Green  -20.31 -111.84 -18.96
122 Kent St.  -20.27 -132.98 -19.96

 

MWC

13 Boise St.  15.06 108.02 15.27
14 Fresno St.  16.86 83.18 15.27
21 Utah St.  16.49 50.55 13.44
59 Air Force  0.49 31.57 1.86
73 Wyoming  -1.03 4.54 -0.47
75 San Diego St.  -0.90 -6.00 -0.89
77 Nevada  -3.26 9.03 -1.73
97 Hawaii  -8.07 -56.48 -8.12
106 Colorado St.  -16.57 -52.72 -13.60
108 UNLV  -13.73 -107.53 -14.36
116 New Mexico  -14.47 -172.44 -18.00
125 San Jose St.  -17.27 -187.97 -20.62

 

P12

20 Washington St.  12.64 105.29 13.53
24 Washington  10.97 96.78 12.00
25 Utah  12.05 75.17 11.68
44 Stanford  7.44 -10.58 4.45
48 Oregon  4.30 14.64 3.58
52 Arizona St.  3.57 12.37 2.98
69 Arizona  -3.90 57.62 0.19
74 USC  -0.86 -3.67 -0.75
79 California  -1.89 -16.97 -2.08
82 UCLA  -3.50 -7.63 -2.70
86 Colorado  -5.36 -0.83 -3.61
123 Oregon St.  -20.91 -131.45 -20.30

 

SBC

17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19
53 Arkansas St.  1.11 37.01 2.53
68 Troy  1.09 -8.41 0.32
71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02
81 LA Lafayette  -3.58 -6.27 -2.69
101 LA Monroe  -10.74 -49.29 -9.55
109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63
110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16
117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48
121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65

 

SEC

1 Alabama  36.16 265.88 36.99
3 Georgia  25.54 185.56 26.02
6 Mississippi St.  18.01 148.26 19.19
10 Missouri  16.75 113.10 16.65
12 Texas A&M  12.83 143.03 15.48
18 LSU  14.17 89.52 13.78
27 Florida  10.67 71.65 10.59
30 Auburn  9.75 31.94 8.05
31 Kentucky  9.24 37.67 7.99
40 South Carolina  6.74 21.90 5.55
49 Vanderbilt  5.72 -12.73 3.20
70 Mississippi  -3.37 47.31 0.05
90 Tennessee  -3.93 -38.75 -4.50
103 Arkansas  -12.82 -51.70 -11.05

 

 

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