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Week 13 DUSHEE (2018)

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Duquesne Frog

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Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points).  It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia.  Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team.  The biggest mover in the top 25 was the Bearkats of Cincinnati, jumping 8 spots and almost 4 points after destroying East Carolina.  The larger overall upward mover was Middle Tennessee who pounded what had been a borderline top-25 team, UAB, by 24 points and over 300 yards.  The biggest mover in the wrong direction was easily Duke, who fell 23 spots and over 5.5 points after inexplicably getting blown out by what had been by all counts a really bad Wake Forest team 59-7.

 

Frogs Week-to-Week

The Frogs moved up for the second week in a row, 4 spots and 1.4 points to #66.  Just behind the Frogs is B1G West champion Northwestern and only 9 spots ahead is ACC CCG qualifier Pitt (I'm too lazy to look up what the division is called). 

 

Opp:      @ SMU      N OhSt      @ Tex    |      ISU      Ttech          OU     |   @ Kan      KSU      @ WVU     |     @ Bay      OkSt

PD:          23.60           6.00        -9.27     |     8.20       -3.50       -8.18   |     -8.20      -2.70       -25.78     |        1.40      10.80

YD:          78.40       143.55       29.82    | 140.60      26.10  -133.73   |  141.40    -90.40    -244.67      |      24.50    185.60

Score:     19.53         10.96        -4.74    |   12.28        -1.07    -11.94   |      1.39       -6.18      -29.05     |        2.12       16.20

 

The Frogs' performance against Okie St was their 2nd best of the season based on DUSHEE score, behind only the SMU game, and was the first time the Frogs looked like a significantly above-average team since the Iowa State game in Week 6.

 

Wince we don't know the Frogs' next opponent yet, let's move on to ...

 

Conference Championship Games

Below is a look at all the conference championship games this weekend.  DUSHEE only thinks 3 are likely to be competitive: the CUSA game between UAB and MTSU is a true toss-up (after giving MTSU the home field advantage (HFA) ... UAB would be favored on a neutral field), the Pac-12 with Utah as a slight favorite, and the MWC where a Boise HFA turns that game from a toss-up to a Boise 3-point advantage.

 

DUSHEE gives Georgia, Texas, Northwestern, and Memphis all somewhere around a 1-in-4 to 1-in-5 chance.  Pitt is given less than a 10% chance of beating Clemson.

 

CCG Location Team 1 Rec DUSHEE O Team 2 Rec DUSHEE O DO Fav (Vegas) DDO + HFA Team 1 Chance
SEC Atlanta, GA Georgia  11-1 25.11 Alabama  12-0 38.29 Alabama (-10.5) -13.18   27%
ACC Charlotte, NC Pittsburgh  7-5 2.29 Clemson  12-0 33.95 Clemson (-23.5) -31.66   9%
BXII-II Arlington, TX Texas  9-3 6.85 Oklahoma  11-1 21.04 Oklahoma (-5.5) -14.19   20%
P12 Santa Clara, CA Washington  9-3 11.48 Utah  9-3 12.73 Utah (+3) -1.25   47%
B1G Indianapolis, IN Northwestern  8-4 0.81 Ohio St.  11-1 18.80 Ohio St. (-13) -17.99   24%
AAC Orlando, FL Memphis  8-4 5.57 UCF  11-0 18.50 UCF (-7) -12.93 -16.45 24%
CUSA Murfreesboro, TN UAB 9-3 6.73 Middle Tenn. St.  8-4 3.21 UAB (+2.5) -3.52 -0.01 50%
MAC Detroit, MI Northern Illinois  7-5  -2.36 Buffalo  10-2 7.04 Buffalo (-4) -9.39   33%
MWC Boise, ID Fresno St.  10-2 15.49 Boise St.  10-2 15.14 Fresno St. (+1.5) -0.35 +3.16 44%
SBC Boone, NC LA Lafayette  7-5  -3.56 Appalachian State 9-2 15.29 Appalachian State (-17.5) -18.85 -22.37 13%

 

In general, DUSHEE is higher on most of the favorites than Vegas is.  This is particularly true for Oklahoma, where Vegas likes the Sooners by 5.5 and DUSHEE likes them by 14, and UCF, where Vegas likes the Knights by a TD and DUSHEE likes them (with home field) by 16.5.  Vegas favors MTSU in the DUSHEE toss-up CUSA game by 2.5 and favors Washington by 3 when DUSHEE favors the Utes by a point to point-and-a-half.

 

Only two of the CCGs feature the top two teams in each conference based on their DUSHEE ranking ... the SEC and the MWC.  So, per DUSHEE's assessment, eight out of 10 CCGs are pitting inferior matchups for their respective "championships."

 

Conference: DUSHEE Rank (Rank in Conference)

SEC: 1 Alabama (1) vs. 3 Georgia (2)

ACC: 2 Clemson (1) vs 57 Pitt (6) ... 29 Miami is the 2nd ranked ACC team and would only be a 26-point dog to Clemson

BXII-II: 5 Oklahoma (1) vs 35 Texas (3) ... 17 West Virginia ranks second and would only be a 6-point dog to OU

P12: 22 Utah (2) vs 25 Washington (3) ... 20 Washington State ranked 1st, only 2 points separate these 3 teams

B1G: 7 Ohio St. (2) vs. 67 Northwestern (11) ... 4 Michigan was the top ranked team; 19 Iowa was the top ranked team in the West

AAC: 8 UCF (1) vs. 41 Memphis (4) ... 16 Cincinnati was the 2nd ranked team in the conference, Memphis was the top ranked team in the West Division

CUSA: 37 UAB (2) vs 50 MTSU (5) ... 33 North Texas was the top ranked team, 44 Marshall was the top ranked team in the East Division

MAC: 34 Buffalo (2) vs 79 NIU (5) ... 23 Ohio was the top ranked team, 61 Toledo was the top ranked team in the West Division

MWC: 13 Fresno (1) vs 15 Boise (2)

SBC: 14 App St. (1) vs. 87 ULaLa (5) ... 53 Arkansas State was the 2nd ranked team and the top ranked team in the side of the bracket ULaLa was on

 

Conference Ratings

Unfortunately, this season, the SEC really was far and away the best conference in college football.  As we have discussed before, there are many ways to judge the "best" conference and pretty much any way you look at it ... SEC.

 

Top of the conference?  They have 6 teams in the top 20.  The Pac 12 has 1 ... Washington State at #20.  The ACC has 1 ... Clemson ... and their second best team, Miami, is 29th.  The Big XII-II has 2 teams in the top 20, same as the Mountain West.  The B1G has four.

 

Bottom of the conference?  The SEC had two clearly below average teams, Arkansas and Tennessee.  The ACC had six.  The B1G and Big XII-II both had three.  The Pac 12 has five.

 

Conference average?  The average SEC team is nearly a TD better than the average B1G or BXII-II team and would be a 9-10 point favorite on a neutral field against the average P12 or ACC team.  The average ACC team is closer to an average Sun Belt team than an average SEC team.

 

SEC 10.77
B10 4.32
B12 4.15
P12 1.77
ACC 0.82
AAC -2.15
MWC -2.51
MAC -5.51
CUSA -5.62
SBC -6.19

 

Yet another reason why this season has sucked.

 

Performances of the Week

Top 3

48.30 Ohio St. vs. Michigan (23 MOV, 166 YM)

47.40 Cincinnati vs. ECU (50 MOV, 338 YM)

45.64 Middle Tennessee St. vs. UAB (24 MOV, 305 YM)

 

Bottom 3

-56.59 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM)

-42.17 Louisville vs. Kentucky (-46 MOV, -292 YM)

-39.58 Central Michigan at Toledo (-38 MOV, -292 YM)

 

Overall Rankings

  Week 13  
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Alabama  37.01 280.91 38.29 0 -0.72
2 Clemson  32.88 248.04 33.95 0 -2.08
3 Georgia  25.14 172.21 25.11 1 1.40
4 Michigan  22.12 200.75 24.48 -1 -2.82
5 Oklahoma  19.91 160.35 21.04 0 -0.43
6 Mississippi St.  18.35 150.92 19.55 0 1.18
7 Ohio St.  17.12 152.37 18.80 4 2.91
8 UCF  20.66 97.49 18.50 1 1.18
9 Notre Dame  17.43 116.20 17.25 -2 -0.89
10 Missouri  17.25 117.16 17.18 3 1.46
11 Penn St.  17.13 99.04 16.22 6 1.64
12 Texas A&M  12.95 146.44 15.73 -4 -1.71
13 Fresno St.  16.93 86.80 15.49 -3 -0.79
14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 4 1.15
15 Boise St.  15.13 104.23 15.14 4 1.02
16 Cincinnati  14.01 119.62 15.14 8 3.79
17 West Virginia  15.23 101.18 15.06 -1 0.29
18 LSU  14.68 93.08 14.30 -4 -1.14
19 Iowa  14.51 84.01 13.75 -4 -1.46
20 Washington St.  12.86 106.15 13.72 -8 -2.10
21 Utah St.  16.63 50.92 13.55 -1 -0.21
22 Utah  12.96 84.43 12.73 -1 -0.90
23 Ohio  12.27 84.20 12.26 -1 -0.20
24 Temple  12.35 75.14 11.88 -1 -0.56
25 Washington  10.65 90.43 11.48 4 2.38
26 Army  12.21 65.97 11.34 -1 0.06
27 Florida  10.68 71.15 10.57 6 1.99
28 Auburn  10.25 35.12 8.53 2 -0.50
29 Miami (FL)  7.46 68.89 8.32 7 0.22
30 N.C. State  8.43 49.70 8.03 -3 -1.81
31 Kentucky  9.31 36.37 7.97 9 1.82
32 Purdue  7.56 44.00 7.18 3 -1.02
33 North Texas  6.06 64.41 7.16 -5 -2.29
34 Buffalo  6.52 55.45 7.04 10 2.10
35 Texas  8.10 29.96 6.85 -1 -1.48
36 Wisconsin  5.20 68.22 6.77 -4 -2.12
37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 -11 -3.37
38 Michigan St.  5.47 52.92 6.21 -7 -2.79
39 Syracuse  7.11 21.88 5.80 7 1.76
40 Iowa St.  7.24 18.77 5.74 -2 -1.10
41 Memphis  5.10 44.74 5.57 19 3.15
42 South Carolina  6.24 24.65 5.36 8 1.70
43 Oklahoma St.  4.82 40.35 5.17 -6 -2.11
44 Marshall  5.18 27.66 4.80 8 1.16
45 Stanford  7.29 -4.72 4.63 -6 -1.96
46 Florida Atlantic  1.28 77.64 4.62 -3 -0.51
47 BYU  3.16 45.29 4.30 -2 0.23
48 Oregon  4.52 15.51 3.77 6 0.44
49 Georgia Tech  2.87 29.99 3.37 -7 -2.19
50 Middle Tenn. St.  4.04 10.67 3.21 28 4.94
51 Vanderbilt  5.76 -14.31 3.15 12 1.97
52 Arizona St.  3.68 13.72 3.12 1 -0.52
53 Arkansas St.  1.44 40.64 2.93 11 1.79
54 Texas Tech  2.58 18.21 2.60 -13 -3.12
55 Houston  4.07 -5.45 2.45 -8 -1.53
56 Nebraska  -0.18 51.33 2.37 5 0.41
57 Pittsburgh  3.14 4.06 2.29 -6 -1.35
58 Miami (OH)  2.60 8.77 2.16 9 1.64
59 Air Force  0.65 31.81 1.97 -1 -0.58
60 Southern Miss  -1.06 52.88 1.86 6 1.26
61 Toledo  4.02 -17.45 1.83 13 2.82
62 Boston Coll.  3.57 -15.91 1.61 -6 -1.35
63 Virginia  1.83 7.89 1.60 -15 -2.27
64 Minnesota  1.94 -0.24 1.28 8 2.04
65 Maryland  2.11 -3.14 1.26 -16 -2.44
66 TCU  -0.69 27.38 0.86 4 1.39
67 Northwestern  2.79 -21.58 0.81 -12 -2.46
68 Troy  1.35 -6.84 0.57 3 1.14
69 Arizona  -3.67 58.69 0.40 -1 0.48
70 East. Michigan  0.39 -1.29 0.20 -8 -1.23
71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 -2 0.58
72 Mississippi  -3.38 48.55 0.10 -15 -2.70
73 Wyoming  -0.77 6.22 -0.21 6 1.91
74 USC  -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 2 0.79
75 San Diego St.  -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 -10 -1.29
76 Nevada  -2.99 10.84 -1.47 -3 -0.56
77 Florida Intl.  0.15 -38.12 -1.75 8 2.17
78 California  -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 2 0.28
79 Northern Illinois  -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 -4 -1.32
80 UCLA  -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 4 0.64
81 Indiana  -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 1 -0.13
82 Duke  -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 -23 -5.57
83 W. Michigan  -7.04 31.35 -3.17 5 1.01
84 Tulane  -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 -3 -0.85
85 Baylor  -5.34 4.58 -3.34 5 1.23
86 Colorado  -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 -3 -0.48
87 LA Lafayette  -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 4 1.05
88 Kansas St.  -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 -1 0.14
89 Tennessee  -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 -12 -2.59
90 Wake Forest  -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 10 4.45
91 Louisiana Tech  -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 -2 -0.57
92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 2 0.30
93 South Florida  -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 0 -0.59
94 East Carolina  -11.77 15.08 -7.12 -8 -3.11
95 Florida St.  -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 -3 -1.61
96 SMU  -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 -1 -0.43
97 Hawaii  -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 7 1.93
98 Virginia Tech  -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 -1 0.41
99 North Carolina  -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 -3 0.23
100 Kansas  -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 -1 0.50
101 Navy  -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 0 0.74
102 LA Monroe  -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 0 0.19
103 Ball St.  -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 0 -0.50
104 Arkansas  -12.59 -49.10 -10.77 -6 -1.99
105 Tulsa  -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 1 0.61
106 Colorado St.  -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 3 0.96
107 West. Kentucky  -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 3 1.39
108 UNLV  -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 4 1.33
109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 -4 -2.05
110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 -3 -1.39
111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 0 0.00
112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 -4 -1.22
113 Akron  -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 3 1.69
114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 1 -0.21
115 Rutgers  -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 3 0.94
116 New Mexico  -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 -3 -2.09
117 Illinois  -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 5 1.35
118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 1 0.69
119 Cent. Michigan  -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 -5 -1.53
120 Bowling Green  -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 -3 -0.47
121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 3 1.81
122 Kent St.  -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 4 2.48
123 Oregon St.  -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 -3 -1.31
124 UTEP  -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 -1 -0.22
125 San Jose St.  -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 0 1.78
126 Louisville  -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 -5 -2.14
127 Rice  -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 0 1.79
128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 1 2.61
129 New Mexico St.  -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 -1 1.56
130 Connecticut  -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 0 -0.30

 

By Conference

AAC

8 UCF  20.66 97.49 18.50
16 Cincinnati  14.01 119.62 15.14
24 Temple  12.35 75.14 11.88
41 Memphis  5.10 44.74 5.57
55 Houston  4.07 -5.45 2.45
84 Tulane  -3.62 -16.82 -3.23
93 South Florida  -7.32 -44.13 -7.02
94 East Carolina  -11.77 15.08 -7.12
96 SMU  -6.46 -72.77 -7.83
101 Navy  -7.25 -84.62 -8.93
105 Tulsa  -11.47 -91.78 -12.10
130 Connecticut  -30.84 -259.36 -33.13

 

ACC

2 Clemson  32.88 248.04 33.95
29 Miami (FL)  7.46 68.89 8.32
30 N.C. State  8.43 49.70 8.03
39 Syracuse  7.11 21.88 5.80
49 Georgia Tech  2.87 29.99 3.37
57 Pittsburgh  3.14 4.06 2.29
62 Boston Coll.  3.57 -15.91 1.61
63 Virginia  1.83 7.89 1.60
82 Duke  -1.30 -45.90 -3.09
90 Wake Forest  -3.45 -47.16 -4.58
95 Florida St.  -8.40 -33.07 -7.21
98 Virginia Tech  -8.85 -50.89 -8.37
99 North Carolina  -10.41 -29.82 -8.39
126 Louisville  -23.53 -126.58 -21.83

 

B1G

4 Michigan  22.12 200.75 24.48
7 Ohio St.  17.12 152.37 18.80
11 Penn St.  17.13 99.04 16.22
19 Iowa  14.51 84.01 13.75
32 Purdue  7.56 44.00 7.18
36 Wisconsin  5.20 68.22 6.77
38 Michigan St.  5.47 52.92 6.21
56 Nebraska  -0.18 51.33 2.37
64 Minnesota  1.94 -0.24 1.28
65 Maryland  2.11 -3.14 1.26
67 Northwestern  2.79 -21.58 0.81
81 Indiana  -3.75 -1.47 -2.57
115 Rutgers  -17.13 -130.22 -17.73
117 Illinois  -18.49 -124.32 -18.35

 

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  19.91 160.35 21.04
17 West Virginia  15.23 101.18 15.06
35 Texas  8.10 29.96 6.85
40 Iowa St.  7.24 18.77 5.74
43 Oklahoma St.  4.82 40.35 5.17
54 Texas Tech  2.58 18.21 2.60
66 TCU  -0.69 27.38 0.86
85 Baylor  -5.34 4.58 -3.34
88 Kansas St.  -1.30 -63.09 -3.93
100 Kansas  -7.21 -76.66 -8.52

 

CUSA

33 North Texas  6.06 64.41 7.16
37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73
44 Marshall  5.18 27.66 4.80
46 Florida Atlantic  1.28 77.64 4.62
50 Middle Tenn. St.  4.04 10.67 3.21
60 Southern Miss  -1.06 52.88 1.86
77 Florida Intl.  0.15 -38.12 -1.75
91 Louisiana Tech  -6.23 -18.80 -5.07
92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15
107 West. Kentucky  -13.08 -99.60 -13.55
110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93
124 UTEP  -20.80 -135.60 -20.44
127 Rice  -21.12 -162.66 -21.97
128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26

 

Indies

9 Notre Dame  17.43 116.20 17.25
26 Army  12.21 65.97 11.34
47 BYU  3.16 45.29 4.30
112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45
114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56
129 New Mexico St.  -24.51 -157.90 -24.00

 

MAC

23 Ohio  12.27 84.20 12.26
34 Buffalo  6.52 55.45 7.04
58 Miami (OH)  2.60 8.77 2.16
61 Toledo  4.02 -17.45 1.83
70 East. Michigan  0.39 -1.29 0.20
79 Northern Illinois  -1.03 -34.42 -2.36
83 W. Michigan  -7.04 31.35 -3.17
103 Ball St.  -9.73 -79.32 -10.33
113 Akron  -13.51 -156.42 -16.59
119 Cent. Michigan  -18.30 -131.86 -18.59
120 Bowling Green  -20.12 -110.96 -18.79
122 Kent St.  -20.10 -132.29 -19.81

 

MWC

13 Fresno St.  16.93 86.80 15.49
15 Boise St.  15.13 104.23 15.14
21 Utah St.  16.63 50.92 13.55
59 Air Force  0.65 31.81 1.97
73 Wyoming  -0.77 6.22 -0.21
75 San Diego St.  -0.68 -4.25 -0.66
76 Nevada  -2.99 10.84 -1.47
97 Hawaii  -7.95 -55.62 -8.00
106 Colorado St.  -16.45 -52.28 -13.50
108 UNLV  -13.62 -106.17 -14.23
116 New Mexico  -14.23 -170.76 -17.77
125 San Jose St.  -17.14 -186.89 -20.49

 

P12

20 Washington St.  12.86 106.15 13.72
22 Utah  12.96 84.43 12.73
25 Washington  10.65 90.43 11.48
45 Stanford  7.29 -4.72 4.63
48 Oregon  4.52 15.51 3.77
52 Arizona St.  3.68 13.72 3.12
69 Arizona  -3.67 58.69 0.40
74 USC  -0.59 -2.22 -0.50
78 California  -1.45 -19.21 -1.90
80 UCLA  -3.16 -5.37 -2.37
86 Colorado  -5.14 -0.16 -3.43
123 Oregon St.  -20.97 -133.21 -20.44

 

SBC

14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29
53 Arkansas St.  1.44 40.64 2.93
68 Troy  1.35 -6.84 0.57
71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15
87 LA Lafayette  -4.21 -15.62 -3.56
102 LA Monroe  -10.69 -49.65 -9.53
109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63
111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38
118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38
121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33

 

SEC

1 Alabama  37.01 280.91 38.29
3 Georgia  25.14 172.21 25.11
6 Mississippi St.  18.35 150.92 19.55
10 Missouri  17.25 117.16 17.18
12 Texas A&M  12.95 146.44 15.73
18 LSU  14.68 93.08 14.30
27 Florida  10.68 71.15 10.57
28 Auburn  10.25 35.12 8.53
31 Kentucky  9.31 36.37 7.97
42 South Carolina  6.24 24.65 5.36
51 Vanderbilt  5.76 -14.31 3.15
72 Mississippi  -3.38 48.55 0.10
89 Tennessee  -3.70 -36.87 -4.25
104 Arkansas  -12.59 -49.10 -10.77

 

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