Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
  • entries
    73
  • comments
    45
  • views
    28,944

Week 10 DUSHEE (2018)

Sign in to follow this  
Duquesne Frog

67 views

As we've discussed in previous weeks, Alabama and Clemson have been set for some time your clear top 2 (Alabama has retaken the top spot as the two continue to jockey in the rankings).  This week, Michigan has begun to separate from the pack as a clear #3 and Oklahoma has now created a little bit of space for itself in #4.  Were the season to end today, that is your playoff as far as DUSHEE is concerned.

 

The Frogs dropped again, despite the win, three spots to 50th.  DUSHEE has the Frogs as a field goal better than an average team, which is to say, pretty average.  DUSHEE does not think Kansas State is a very good team, and the fact that we beat them by one and were outgained, means that DUSHEE didn't think that was a performance worthy of a good team.  In fact, DUSHEE has the K-State win as the worst performance of the year for the Frogs.  TCU had worse Point Differentials against Texas and Kansas, but when adjusted for a season low Yardage Differential, DUSHEE rated the K-State game as almost 11-points below average.

 

TCU Week-to-Week

Opp:       @ SMU      N OhSt      @ Tex    |     ISU       Ttech       OU   |   @ Kan       KSU

PD:             21.00         7.25        -10.63   |    9.86       1.00       -4.25 |       -7.57      -6.43

YD:             61.00      150.50        29.63   |189.00     53.43    -95.00  |  118.00   -135.57

Score:        16.97        12.16         -5.64   |  15.77        3.27      -7.46  |      0.69      -10.88

 

Perhaps most concerning is that the Frogs are on a pretty clear downward trajectory as the Frogs' best three performances were in their first four games (excluding Southern) and three of their four worst performances have come in the last three weeks.  Put another way, the Frogs averaged a DUSHEE score of 9.81 during the first four games of the season and -3.60 during the second four.  Which shouldn't make us feel very good going into next week, when we face  ...

 

West Virginia Week-to-Week

Opp:       N Tenn       KSU      @ Ttech   |    Kan      @ ISU       Bay    |  @ Tex

PD:            18.71     25.57         13.57    |  11.86     -11.86    42.71   |     7.38

YD:          206.29     42.71         53.43    | 147.71  -344.71  304.57  |   89.25

Score:       22.51     19.13         11.65    |   15.09     -24.68    43.29  |     9.26

 

If you are looking for any kind of solace that the Frogs will have a chance this week in Morgantown, I can only offer two rather minor consolations.  First, the Mountaineers have played a softer conference slate than the Frogs so far, having not played OU yet and having beaten up on the dregs (Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor).  And for one common opponent, WVU was inexplicably destroyed by Iowa State while we managed to beat the Cyclones before the aforementioned 4-game swoon.  If the Frogs and Mountaineers who faced Iowa State show up on Saturday, the Frogs win by 40 points!!!

 

Unfortunately those are not the only two data points we have, and against our other four common opponents, the Fightin' Holgersons have been an average of 17-points better than the Frogs and 14-points better over their last four games.  Taking the whole season into account, DUSHEE has the Mountaineers as 14.5-point favorites at Milan Puskar Stadium with a 23% chance of winning.

 

Conference Ratings

For the first time this season, the B1G has edged past the BXII-II as the second-best conference in FBS, albeit by a hundredth of a point.  Both conferences are well behind the SEC and well ahead of the ever-so mediocre ACC and P12.  The American Athletic (AAC) has picked a bad year to market themselves as a "Power" conference as they are now less than a point better than the Mountain West.

 

SEC 10.95
B10 5.77
B12 5.76
ACC 2.65
P12 2.06
AAC -2.72
MWC -3.60
CUSA -6.70
MAC -6.88
SBC -8.15

 

Week 10 Performances

Top 3

50.17 -- Michigan vs. PSU (35 MOV, 219 YM)

48.89 -- Alabama at LSU (29 MOV, 380 YM)

43.60 -- Mississippi St. vs. Louisiana Tech (42 MOV, 294 YM)

 

Bottom 3

-45.17 Minnesota at Illinois (-24 MOV, -208 YM)

-44.09 Florida Int'l. vs. Florida Atl. (-35 MOV, -266 YM)

-44.39 Georgia So. at Louisiana-Monroe (-19 MOV, -359 YM)

 

Overall Ratings

The only thing that changed in the Top 6 is that Alabama and Clemson switched positions at the top.  A&M, despite losing, climbed 3 spots to #7, benefitting from larger falls by the B1G trio of Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa.  Big movers at the top this week include UCF and UAB who jumped 13 and 16 spots, respectively, into the top 20.  Utah, Texas Tech, and Washington all took big tumbles out of the top 25. 

 

The biggest overall gainers were Tulane, who jumped 25 spots in the rankings after destroying USF (DUSHEE was pretty prescient about them if you read my blog post from two weeks ago ...), and Louisiana-Monroe whose DUSHEE score rose 7.26 points after a three-score takedown of Georgia Southern.

 

The biggest overall losers this week, both in terms of ranking position and DUSHEE score were the Golden Gophers of Minnesota who lost over 6 points and dropped 26 spots in the rankings after losing by 24 to a truly terrible Illinois team.

 

  Week 10    
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Alabama  36.81 294.81 38.88 1 1.12
2 Clemson  37.07 283.53 38.51 -1 -1.19
3 Michigan  28.23 254.75 31.22 0 1.78
4 Oklahoma  23.25 202.68 25.36 0 -0.15
5 Georgia  23.75 123.80 21.86 0 -0.19
6 LSU  19.98 80.74 17.24 0 -3.89
7 Texas A&M  12.26 179.79 16.92 3 -0.03
8 Missouri  16.72 118.62 16.92 6 1.35
9 Ohio St.  15.25 137.37 16.85 -2 -3.12
10 Penn St.  18.25 83.45 16.23 -1 -1.92
11 North Texas  15.19 123.43 16.13 1 0.15
12 Fresno St.  18.49 76.32 16.04 4 1.13
13 Iowa  15.39 115.48 15.88 -5 -2.69
14 Utah St.  19.48 53.40 15.59 8 2.48
15 Mississippi St.  14.43 113.36 15.13 5 1.63
16 N.C. State  13.95 108.70 14.59 -5 -1.56
17 UCF  17.31 62.29 14.57 13 2.60
18 UAB 13.30 115.30 14.48 16 3.56
19 Notre Dame  13.96 102.47 14.29 -1 -0.04
20 Purdue  13.93 94.85 13.90 5 1.38
21 West Virginia  15.42 71.32 13.75 -4 -0.69
22 Temple  12.62 104.31 13.49 -1 0.01
23 Army  14.03 73.96 12.95 -10 -2.78
24 Michigan St.  12.51 84.32 12.44 11 1.91
25 Iowa St.  12.15 87.95 12.38 -6 -1.62
26 Washington St.  9.71 114.11 12.03 3 0.02
27 Appalachian State 12.38 76.68 11.98 -4 -1.05
28 Utah  11.58 79.32 11.58 -13 -3.47
29 Cincinnati  11.46 78.15 11.44 7 3.58
30 Texas Tech  11.31 78.46 11.36 -6 -1.22
31 Boise St.  10.18 85.98 10.97 0 -0.81
32 Kentucky  11.14 60.48 10.37 0 -1.33
33 Washington  9.81 68.30 9.86 -7 -2.57
34 Wisconsin  7.91 84.57 9.39 -1 -1.54
35 Miami (FL)  7.27 83.00 8.88 -8 -3.25
36 Ohio  9.08 56.22 8.79 15 5.47
37 Texas  9.31 46.96 8.49 2 1.03
38 Florida  9.23 32.21 7.72 -10 -4.38
39 Buffalo  7.27 57.36 7.64 1 0.56
40 Arizona St.  6.84 44.98 6.75 12 3.50
41 Boston Coll.  7.10 35.97 6.48 -4 -1.37
42 Stanford  8.17 11.67 6.02 6 0.74
43 Syracuse  7.47 19.11 5.91 -1 -0.33
44 Auburn  6.93 18.48 5.52 -3 -0.96
45 South Carolina  5.32 29.66 4.99 0 -1.01
46 Georgia Tech  3.33 52.68 4.79 4 0.61
47 Mississippi  1.53 67.92 4.33 2 0.04
48 Oklahoma St.  3.20 36.59 3.92 -2 -1.64
49 Nebraska  -0.60 83.67 3.67 6 1.03
50 TCU  1.28 46.37 3.11 -3 -2.37
51 BYU  2.34 31.21 3.08 9 1.97
52 Maryland  3.75 5.45 2.77 -8 -3.30
53 Northwestern  3.98 1.70 2.74 0 -0.18
54 Virginia  2.28 13.20 2.16 -11 -3.92
55 Houston  3.45 -3.84 2.11 -17 -5.51
56 Arizona  -1.65 62.26 1.93 7 1.55
57 Duke  5.48 -40.15 1.70 2 0.57
58 San Diego St.  -0.14 27.43 1.24 6 1.15
59 Florida Atlantic  -1.03 37.10 1.12 22 5.06
60 Oregon  0.98 1.20 0.71 2 0.22
61 Air Force  0.69 4.27 0.67 7 1.82
62 Vanderbilt  4.03 -43.54 0.57 -4 -0.60
63 East. Michigan  0.84 -1.00 0.51 2 0.56
64 USC  0.42 -3.22 0.13 -7 -1.47
65 Tulane  1.24 -14.95 0.10 25 5.65
66 Marshall  0.29 -6.08 -0.10 9 2.24
67 Pittsburgh  1.88 -28.20 -0.12 4 1.32
68 Southern Miss  -5.63 72.80 -0.21 2 0.95
69 Colorado  -2.00 19.34 -0.39 -8 -1.08
70 Toledo  3.09 -52.35 -0.49 10 3.41
71 Memphis  -1.24 -8.62 -1.24 6 1.66
72 Miami (OH)  -2.20 0.01 -1.47 1 0.31
73 Tennessee  -1.33 -16.85 -1.71 -4 -0.56
74 Georgia Southern 3.95 -92.86 -1.89 -18 -4.05
75 Troy  -1.99 -13.35 -1.98 3 1.39
76 UCLA  -3.43 -3.64 -2.46 -9 -1.50
77 Wyoming  -3.69 -6.33 -2.77 7 1.29
78 Arkansas St.  -5.35 15.07 -2.83 4 1.16
79 California  -4.17 -4.00 -2.97 7 1.47
80 Minnesota  -3.62 -20.25 -3.40 -26 -6.08
81 LA Lafayette  -4.33 -12.67 -3.50 4 0.70
82 Virginia Tech  -3.70 -33.50 -4.09 6 0.74
83 Louisiana Tech  -3.81 -37.09 -4.35 -17 -3.81
84 Baylor  -4.43 -28.96 -4.36 -1 -0.31
85 East Carolina  -10.70 54.16 -4.50 -13 -2.86
86 Indiana  -7.10 2.27 -4.62 -12 -2.37
87 SMU  -3.43 -52.34 -4.83 14 5.29
88 Middle Tenn. St.  -1.77 -77.99 -4.97 7 1.69
89 Northern Illinois  -3.49 -55.71 -5.04 0 0.49
90 Nevada  -4.51 -50.66 -5.47 2 0.52
91 Arkansas  -8.29 0.96 -5.48 2 0.57
92 Kansas St.  -2.83 -81.62 -5.85 -1 0.07
93 W. Michigan  -9.20 3.25 -5.98 -6 -1.40
94 Florida St.  -7.88 -15.35 -6.00 0 0.12
95 Florida Intl.  -5.37 -66.28 -6.80 -19 -4.37
96 UNC-Charlotte -10.97 8.19 -6.91 1 0.52
97 South Florida  -8.26 -38.23 -7.36 -1 -0.57
98 Liberty -5.96 -72.11 -7.48 -19 -4.00
99 Wake Forest  -8.42 -63.68 -8.71 3 1.52
100 North Carolina  -11.95 -18.50 -8.87 -2 0.01
101 Coastal Carolina -8.72 -68.64 -9.15 6 2.74
102 Ball St.  -10.80 -67.65 -10.49 -2 -0.85
103 Kansas  -8.01 -106.65 -10.53 -4 -1.24
104 Tulsa  -10.33 -78.58 -10.71 -1 0.13
105 Hawaii  -10.56 -93.51 -11.59 -1 -0.28
106 LA Monroe  -13.07 -60.77 -11.67 12 7.26
107 New Mexico  -8.88 -128.27 -12.16 -2 -0.69
108 Akron  -11.13 -137.32 -14.10 1 -0.28
109 Navy  -12.92 -113.38 -14.13 -3 -2.35
110 Colorado St.  -17.79 -57.40 -14.65 -2 -1.11
111 Cent. Michigan  -15.59 -102.96 -15.40 -1 -1.23
112 Illinois  -13.09 -143.88 -15.73 9 4.66
113 Massachusetts -16.17 -107.07 -15.99 4 2.66
114 Georgia State -16.99 -110.79 -16.71 1 1.30
115 West. Kentucky  -18.87 -106.12 -17.74 -4 -2.61
116 UNLV  -17.12 -132.81 -17.87 3 1.81
117 Louisville  -19.47 -104.44 -18.06 -5 -1.34
118 UTEP  -17.72 -133.04 -18.29 -4 -0.34
119 Old Dominion -19.25 -116.01 -18.48 -3 0.09
120 Oregon St.  -18.88 -121.75 -18.51 -7 -0.86
121 Rutgers  -19.45 -156.23 -20.56 3 1.97
122 Kent St.  -21.64 -158.31 -22.13 3 1.05
123 South Alabama -22.01 -155.07 -22.22 -3 -1.96
124 Rice  -23.24 -152.47 -22.91 -1 -0.95
125 San Jose St.  -21.57 -180.96 -23.19 -3 -1.68
126 Texas St. -21.00 -196.60 -23.57 3 2.01
127 Bowling Green  -25.81 -147.26 -24.37 0 0.08
128 New Mexico St.  -23.84 -179.62 -24.63 0 0.21
129 UT-San Antonio -21.51 -213.96 -24.75 -3 -1.07
130 Connecticut  -27.91 -267.25 -31.61 0 -0.24

 

By Conference

AAC

17 UCF  17.31 62.29 14.57
22 Temple  12.62 104.31 13.49
29 Cincinnati  11.46 78.15 11.44
55 Houston  3.45 -3.84 2.11
65 Tulane  1.24 -14.95 0.10
71 Memphis  -1.24 -8.62 -1.24
85 East Carolina  -10.70 54.16 -4.50
87 SMU  -3.43 -52.34 -4.83
97 South Florida  -8.26 -38.23 -7.36
104 Tulsa  -10.33 -78.58 -10.71
109 Navy  -12.92 -113.38 -14.13
130 Connecticut  -27.91 -267.25 -31.61

 

ACC

2 Clemson  37.07 283.53 38.51
16 N.C. State  13.95 108.70 14.59
35 Miami (FL)  7.27 83.00 8.88
41 Boston Coll.  7.10 35.97 6.48
43 Syracuse  7.47 19.11 5.91
46 Georgia Tech  3.33 52.68 4.79
54 Virginia  2.28 13.20 2.16
57 Duke  5.48 -40.15 1.70
67 Pittsburgh  1.88 -28.20 -0.12
82 Virginia Tech  -3.70 -33.50 -4.09
94 Florida St.  -7.88 -15.35 -6.00
99 Wake Forest  -8.42 -63.68 -8.71
100 North Carolina  -11.95 -18.50 -8.87
117 Louisville  -19.47 -104.44 -18.06

 

B1G

3 Michigan  28.23 254.75 31.22
9 Ohio St.  15.25 137.37 16.85
10 Penn St.  18.25 83.45 16.23
13 Iowa  15.39 115.48 15.88
20 Purdue  13.93 94.85 13.90
24 Michigan St.  12.51 84.32 12.44
34 Wisconsin  7.91 84.57 9.39
49 Nebraska  -0.60 83.67 3.67
52 Maryland  3.75 5.45 2.77
53 Northwestern  3.98 1.70 2.74
80 Minnesota  -3.62 -20.25 -3.40
86 Indiana  -7.10 2.27 -4.62
112 Illinois  -13.09 -143.88 -15.73
121 Rutgers  -19.45 -156.23 -20.56

 

BXII-II

4 Oklahoma  23.25 202.68 25.36
21 West Virginia  15.42 71.32 13.75
25 Iowa St.  12.15 87.95 12.38
30 Texas Tech  11.31 78.46 11.36
37 Texas  9.31 46.96 8.49
48 Oklahoma St.  3.20 36.59 3.92
50 TCU  1.28 46.37 3.11
84 Baylor  -4.43 -28.96 -4.36
92 Kansas St.  -2.83 -81.62 -5.85
103 Kansas  -8.01 -106.65 -10.53

 

CUSA

11 North Texas  15.19 123.43 16.13
18 UAB 13.30 115.30 14.48
59 Florida Atlantic  -1.03 37.10 1.12
66 Marshall  0.29 -6.08 -0.10
68 Southern Miss  -5.63 72.80 -0.21
83 Louisiana Tech  -3.81 -37.09 -4.35
88 Middle Tenn. St.  -1.77 -77.99 -4.97
95 Florida Intl.  -5.37 -66.28 -6.80
96 UNC-Charlotte -10.97 8.19 -6.91
115 West. Kentucky  -18.87 -106.12 -17.74
118 UTEP  -17.72 -133.04 -18.29
119 Old Dominion -19.25 -116.01 -18.48
124 Rice  -23.24 -152.47 -22.91
129 UT-San Antonio -21.51 -213.96 -24.75

 

Indies

19 Notre Dame  13.96 102.47 14.29
23 Army  14.03 73.96 12.95
51 BYU  2.34 31.21 3.08
98 Liberty -5.96 -72.11 -7.48
113 Massachusetts -16.17 -107.07 -15.99
128 New Mexico St.  -23.84 -179.62 -24.63

 

MAC

36 Ohio  9.08 56.22 8.79
39 Buffalo  7.27 57.36 7.64
63 East. Michigan  0.84 -1.00 0.51
70 Toledo  3.09 -52.35 -0.49
72 Miami (OH)  -2.20 0.01 -1.47
89 Northern Illinois  -3.49 -55.71 -5.04
93 W. Michigan  -9.20 3.25 -5.98
102 Ball St.  -10.80 -67.65 -10.49
108 Akron  -11.13 -137.32 -14.10
111 Cent. Michigan  -15.59 -102.96 -15.40
122 Kent St.  -21.64 -158.31 -22.13
127 Bowling Green  -25.81 -147.26 -24.37

 

MWC

12 Fresno St.  18.49 76.32 16.04
14 Utah St.  19.48 53.40 15.59
31 Boise St.  10.18 85.98 10.97
58 San Diego St.  -0.14 27.43 1.24
61 Air Force  0.69 4.27 0.67
77 Wyoming  -3.69 -6.33 -2.77
90 Nevada  -4.51 -50.66 -5.47
105 Hawaii  -10.56 -93.51 -11.59
107 New Mexico  -8.88 -128.27 -12.16
110 Colorado St.  -17.79 -57.40 -14.65
116 UNLV  -17.12 -132.81 -17.87
125 San Jose St.  -21.57 -180.96 -23.19

 

P12

26 Washington St.  9.71 114.11 12.03
28 Utah  11.58 79.32 11.58
33 Washington  9.81 68.30 9.86
40 Arizona St.  6.84 44.98 6.75
42 Stanford  8.17 11.67 6.02
56 Arizona  -1.65 62.26 1.93
60 Oregon  0.98 1.20 0.71
64 USC  0.42 -3.22 0.13
69 Colorado  -2.00 19.34 -0.39
76 UCLA  -3.43 -3.64 -2.46
79 California  -4.17 -4.00 -2.97
120 Oregon St.  -18.88 -121.75 -18.51

 

SBC

27 Appalachian State 12.38 76.68 11.98
74 Georgia Southern 3.95 -92.86 -1.89
75 Troy  -1.99 -13.35 -1.98
78 Arkansas St.  -5.35 15.07 -2.83
81 LA Lafayette  -4.33 -12.67 -3.50
101 Coastal Carolina -8.72 -68.64 -9.15
106 LA Monroe  -13.07 -60.77 -11.67
114 Georgia State -16.99 -110.79 -16.71
123 South Alabama -22.01 -155.07 -22.22
126 Texas St. -21.00 -196.60 -23.57

 

SEC

1 Alabama  36.81 294.81 38.88
5 Georgia  23.75 123.80 21.86
6 LSU  19.98 80.74 17.24
7 Texas A&M  12.26 179.79 16.92
8 Missouri  16.72 118.62 16.92
15 Mississippi St.  14.43 113.36 15.13
32 Kentucky  11.14 60.48 10.37
38 Florida  9.23 32.21 7.72
44 Auburn  6.93 18.48 5.52
45 South Carolina  5.32 29.66 4.99
47 Mississippi  1.53 67.92 4.33
62 Vanderbilt  4.03 -43.54 0.57
73 Tennessee  -1.33 -16.85 -1.71
91 Arkansas  -8.29 0.96 -5.48

 

 

Sign in to follow this  


0 Comments


Recommended Comments

There are no comments to display.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×