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Week 8 DUSHEE (2018)

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Duquesne Frog

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I figure interest in this blog is niche at best, even when the Frogs are playing well.  So I assume at this point, I'm just writing this for myself.  But nonetheless, for this week's entry in the second saddest diary ever written (allowing that Anne Frank's is probably still a little sadder) ...

 

Clemson reclaims the top spot in the rankings, but it really is just Clemson, Bama, and the rest of the field at this point.  There is an almost 10-point gap between those two teams and 3rd ranked Michigan.  The Sooners rose to the 4th spot in the rankings, due mostly to Ohio State and Penn State falling significantly.

 

A team I'd like to focus on this week is USF, which if DUSHEE is any judge, may be the worst 7-0 team in the history of major college football.  After beating the lowest-ranked DUSHEE team, UConn, by only a TD, DUSHEE now has Charlie Strong's Bulls ranked 94th.  That "win" garnered USF a DUSHEE score of -31.40 for the week.   When combined with playing the second easiest schedule in FBS ... USF's opponents are, on average, almost 2TDs worse than an average FBS team ... Georgia Tech (ranked 58th), Illinois (114), East Carolina (68), UMass (116), Tulsa (100), UConn (130) ... and only beating that ridiculously easy schedule by an average of 8-points, USF appears to be a paper tiger of the highest order. 

 

Things start getting a little tougher for the Bulls next week with @Houston (52), Tulane (95), @Cincinnati (36), @Temple (25), and UCF (30) ... the remaining 5 games include the 4 best teams in the American as rated by DUSHEE.  (Although DUSHEE thinks UCF is extremely overrated too, just not as much as USF.)  The only one of those 5 games where USF should be favored is the game at home against Tulane and DUSHEE expects the Bulls to be heavy underdogs for all of the other 4 (best chance of winning is 23% at Houston this week).  DUSHEE gives USF an 0.05% chance of going undefeated through those 5 games.

 

Frogs

Because DUSHEE has OU still very highly rated and had little expectation that the Frogs would be competitive, the Frogs didn't really drop as much as you might think, falling four spots to 43rd.  The Frogs week-to-week look like this now:

 

Opp:      @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex   |   ISU      Ttech      OU

PD:         15.80          9.29         -8.50   |  6.00       5.40      -4.33

YD:         20.40      169.71        64.17  | 192.00   118.20  -150.83

Score:    11.51        14.34         -2.58  | 13.22       9.28     -10.13

 

So it was actually a pretty decent week in the moral victory department for the Frogs.  While the performance against OU was judged the worst of the season, and the walloping that Purdue put on Ohio State really dropped the Frogs' comparative score against the Buckeyes a ton, the wins against SMU and Iowa State are looking solid at this point, and even the loss to Tech looks pretty decent with Tech's excellent play of late.  As of this moment, only the Texas and Oklahoma games look like total turds.

 

Believe it or not (I expect most will not), DUSHEE has the Frogs as favorites for 4 of the remaining 5 games:

@Kansas +12 (67% chance Frogs win)

Kansas St. +12.5 (72%)

@West Virginia -7.5 (34%)

@Baylor +0.5 (51%)

Oklahoma St. +4 (56%)

 

As of now, the Frogs have played the 4th toughest schedule in FBS, according to DUSHEE.  Although, that will take a hit this week as the Frogs play ...

 

Frogs Next Opponent (Kansas)

Playing Kansas is generally the salve that calms troubled football teams, but God knows that has rarely been the case for the Frogs.  After showing some signs early in the season that the Jayhawks might have improved a little this season (ignoring Nichols St., as DUSHEE does), Kansas has returned to form of late, and seems to be in turmoil after dumping Meachem.  Hopefully, the Frogs take care of business as they did last year.

 

As mentioned above, DUSHEE has the Frogs as 12-point favorites on the road.

Opp:      @ CMU      Rut     @ Bay   |   OkSt     @ WVU     @ Ttech

PD:          12.33     25.57    -25.40  |   -16.80       -4.25        -29.40

YD:          18.67   148.71  -154.00  | -194.40   -205.00     -207.00

Score:       9.12     24.19     -24.33  |   -20.54     -12.68        -29.54

 

So after looking like a reasonable football team against two other really bad teams (CMU and Rutgers), Kansas has returned to form in conference play, getting pounded by everybody by at least 3 TDs.

 

Top Performances of the Week

50.70 Clemson vs. NC-State (34 MOV, 174 YM)

46.46 Missouri vs. Memphis (32 MOV, 238 YM)

46.02 Purdue vs. Ohio St. (29 MOV, -7 YM)

 

Bottom Performances of the Week

-50.46 Oregon St. vs. Cal (-42 MOV, -298 YM)

-38.55 Bowling Green at Ohio (-35 MOV, -283 YM)

-36.11 Minnesota at Nebraska (-25 MOV, -185 YM)

 

Conference Ratings

SEC 12.62
B12 7.31
B10 7.01
ACC 3.85
P12 2.30
AAC -4.04
MWC -4.91
CUSA -7.60
MAC -7.89
SBC -9.95

 

Overall Rankings

  Week 8    
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Clemson  36.58 314.39 39.49 1 0.66
2 Alabama  37.21 290.28 38.75 -1 -0.44
3 Michigan  26.00 254.44 29.55 0 0.81
4 Oklahoma  24.62 178.43 24.98 2 0.07
5 LSU  24.63 131.21 22.72 2 -0.78
6 Texas A&M  16.18 206.57 20.71 5 0.88
7 Georgia  21.43 115.93 19.85 3 -0.44
8 Ohio St.  18.19 157.38 19.68 -3 -6.82
9 Penn St.  22.64 87.45 19.30 -5 -8.44
10 Iowa  18.09 142.36 18.90 7 2.50
11 Appalachian State 19.41 117.35 18.57 -3 -4.64
12 Missouri  16.51 149.15 18.17 15 6.05
13 N.C. State  15.92 153.32 17.98 -4 -4.77
14 North Texas  16.73 135.10 17.64 2 1.11
15 Purdue  16.65 114.46 16.60 19 6.92
16 Wisconsin  15.02 129.11 16.21 2 -0.06
17 Miami (FL)  13.91 141.25 16.06 3 0.68
18 Washington  14.74 120.29 15.61 3 1.08
19 Army  16.36 83.93 14.94 -7 -2.77
20 Notre Dame  16.28 78.38 14.62 -1 -1.17
21 Utah  13.76 109.67 14.44 4 2.12
22 Texas Tech  14.00 105.65 14.41 1 1.43
23 Florida  15.51 76.82 14.03 -9 -2.87
24 Mississippi St.  13.34 103.37 13.86 -9 -2.78
25 Temple  12.57 102.30 13.29 -3 -0.17
26 Fresno St.  14.64 68.91 13.07 6 2.89
27 Kentucky  14.71 65.49 12.95 -14 -4.01
28 Washington St.  9.21 131.52 12.46 5 2.30
29 Iowa St.  10.92 93.52 11.77 0 0.12
30 UCF  12.71 43.55 10.57 1 0.04
31 Boise St.  9.39 87.61 10.47 9 2.03
32 West Virginia  12.52 43.16 10.42 -8 -1.90
33 UAB 8.69 81.99 9.73 15 4.76
34 Texas  9.71 63.99 9.55 -8 -2.75
35 South Carolina  8.95 69.01 9.28 6 1.29
36 Cincinnati  9.36 52.69 8.77 9 2.79
37 Michigan St.  9.00 44.23 8.13 -7 -3.10
38 Virginia  7.14 47.03 7.02 6 0.84
39 Utah St.  13.46 -41.28 6.99 -11 -4.70
40 Colorado  4.83 63.86 6.29 -3 -2.45
41 Auburn  6.70 37.48 6.27 10 1.55
42 Buffalo  5.66 46.50 6.01 8 1.23
43 TCU  3.94 68.94 5.94 -4 -2.65
44 Oregon  5.21 48.58 5.80 13 2.55
45 Oklahoma St.  6.44 29.24 5.70 1 -0.26
46 Maryland  5.70 36.17 5.54 -11 -4.04
47 Duke  9.69 -20.27 5.49 -9 -3.15
48 Mississippi  2.57 63.73 4.78 5 0.69
49 Syracuse  5.23 26.57 4.76 7 1.42
50 Stanford  9.00 -35.66 4.29 -1 -0.52
51 Boston Coll.  5.91 3.92 4.13 -8 -2.30
52 Houston  5.03 6.44 3.66 0 -0.43
53 Nebraska  -1.85 91.83 3.18 13 3.85
54 Arizona St.  4.20 5.30 3.05 -12 -3.61
55 East. Michigan  3.47 -7.49 1.95 16 3.79
56 Minnesota  1.61 17.43 1.91 -20 -7.64
57 Baylor  0.69 25.97 1.71 -2 -1.67
58 Georgia Tech  0.90 17.28 1.43 1 -0.81
59 BYU  2.20 -2.97 1.33 5 1.57
60 Vanderbilt  4.85 -40.07 1.31 3 1.18
61 USC  2.11 -8.27 1.01 -14 -4.17
62 UCLA  0.81 4.56 0.76 -1 -0.15
63 San Diego St.  1.94 -15.93 0.53 -9 -3.32
64 Indiana  -3.13 41.77 -0.08 12 2.96
65 Northwestern  -0.03 -3.64 -0.19 -5 -1.81
66 Louisiana Tech  0.36 -12.95 -0.39 -8 -3.52
67 Virginia Tech  1.38 -30.86 -0.56 0 0.81
68 East Carolina  -7.30 87.00 -0.69 9 2.41
69 W. Michigan  -4.08 38.94 -0.85 6 1.81
70 Tennessee  -1.56 -5.18 -1.29 0 0.53
71 Miami (OH)  -2.36 -9.41 -2.03 13 3.06
72 Arkansas St.  -4.15 13.67 -2.11 0 -0.24
73 Southern Miss  -7.48 58.57 -2.17 12 2.99
74 Kansas St.  0.52 -57.40 -2.41 -5 -0.75
75 Marshall  -0.77 -41.13 -2.49 3 0.73
76 Troy  -3.85 -13.53 -3.22 11 2.60
77 Pittsburgh  -1.68 -44.43 -3.25 -3 -0.95
78 Liberty -3.60 -20.37 -3.38 -5 -1.45
79 Air Force  -2.24 -40.41 -3.44 0 0.40
80 Ohio  -3.14 -35.34 -3.79 13 4.42
81 Northern Illinois  -2.62 -46.01 -3.96 8 2.70
82 Florida St.  -3.78 -29.94 -3.96 6 2.43
83 Memphis  -3.80 -34.23 -4.18 -18 -3.93
84 Florida Intl.  -2.64 -60.81 -4.68 8 2.65
85 Arkansas  -7.53 6.99 -4.69 1 1.12
86 Florida Atlantic  -7.05 -6.61 -5.02 -6 -0.50
87 LA Lafayette  -5.96 -23.14 -5.08 11 4.65
88 Wyoming  -5.63 -35.14 -5.44 12 5.65
89 Georgia Southern -0.45 -113.54 -5.75 2 1.24
90 Ball St.  -6.39 -34.65 -5.93 -9 -1.15
91 Arizona  -9.90 9.08 -6.17 -1 0.76
92 California  -9.48 -18.83 -7.22 15 5.42
93 Nevada  -7.86 -44.29 -7.37 10 4.50
94 South Florida  -7.66 -47.96 -7.41 -26 -5.81
95 Tulane  -7.00 -61.53 -7.62 -33 -7.88
96 Toledo  -4.71 -98.34 -7.86 -1 1.52
97 New Mexico  -7.07 -71.29 -8.14 -3 0.10
98 North Carolina  -13.96 20.06 -8.34 8 4.24
99 UNC-Charlotte -12.86 -0.77 -8.61 -3 0.79
100 Tulsa  -9.72 -47.95 -8.78 -17 -3.89
101 Kansas  -6.32 -98.84 -8.96 -19 -4.10
102 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.87 -95.11 -10.48 0 1.15
103 Colorado St.  -14.33 -20.53 -10.54 1 1.44
104 Navy  -10.00 -102.82 -11.60 4 2.10
105 Wake Forest  -11.40 -91.91 -12.01 -6 -1.49
106 Hawaii  -11.60 -99.05 -12.49 -5 -1.39
107 Cent. Michigan  -13.95 -74.36 -12.87 -10 -3.46
108 Coastal Carolina -13.66 -83.04 -13.10 1 1.19
109 SMU  -12.48 -109.22 -13.56 -4 -1.16
110 West. Kentucky  -15.39 -84.42 -14.31 1 0.97
111 Louisville  -13.93 -105.65 -14.36 1 1.73
112 Akron  -13.34 -142.16 -15.72 -2 -0.54
113 Old Dominion -16.53 -117.56 -16.67 4 3.10
114 Illinois  -13.28 -171.87 -17.11 1 0.87
115 UNLV  -15.29 -164.86 -18.11 1 0.47
116 Massachusetts -17.06 -157.26 -18.92 3 3.59
117 Georgia State -19.65 -133.58 -19.52 -4 -2.97
118 LA Monroe  -21.01 -124.09 -19.97 7 4.97
119 UTEP  -20.68 -145.07 -20.75 1 2.40
120 South Alabama -20.38 -167.69 -21.64 -2 -0.57
121 UT-San Antonio -20.07 -190.28 -22.52 1 0.97
122 Oregon St.  -25.50 -118.57 -22.69 -8 -5.81
123 Kent St.  -22.30 -177.94 -23.41 1 1.22
124 Rutgers  -22.78 -172.50 -23.47 -1 0.55
125 San Jose St.  -24.29 -172.59 -24.48 2 3.21
126 Rice  -25.90 -174.78 -25.66 0 1.83
127 Bowling Green  -28.38 -152.84 -26.26 -6 -2.84
128 Texas St. -25.68 -221.20 -27.74 0 1.49
129 New Mexico St.  -26.85 -208.74 -27.92 0 2.39
130 Connecticut  -26.78 -272.45 -30.94 0 3.58

 

Rankings By Conference

AAC

25 Temple  12.57 102.30 13.29
30 UCF  12.71 43.55 10.57
36 Cincinnati  9.36 52.69 8.77
52 Houston  5.03 6.44 3.66
68 East Carolina  -7.30 87.00 -0.69
83 Memphis  -3.80 -34.23 -4.18
94 South Florida  -7.66 -47.96 -7.41
95 Tulane  -7.00 -61.53 -7.62
100 Tulsa  -9.72 -47.95 -8.78
104 Navy  -10.00 -102.82 -11.60
109 SMU  -12.48 -109.22 -13.56
130 Connecticut  -26.78 -272.45 -30.94

 

ACC

1 Clemson  36.58 314.39 39.49
13 N.C. State  15.92 153.32 17.98
17 Miami (FL)  13.91 141.25 16.06
38 Virginia  7.14 47.03 7.02
47 Duke  9.69 -20.27 5.49
49 Syracuse  5.23 26.57 4.76
51 Boston Coll.  5.91 3.92 4.13
58 Georgia Tech  0.90 17.28 1.43
67 Virginia Tech  1.38 -30.86 -0.56
77 Pittsburgh  -1.68 -44.43 -3.25
82 Florida St.  -3.78 -29.94 -3.96
98 North Carolina  -13.96 20.06 -8.34
105 Wake Forest  -11.40 -91.91 -12.01
111 Louisville  -13.93 -105.65 -14.36

 

B1G

3 Michigan  26.00 254.44 29.55
8 Ohio St.  18.19 157.38 19.68
9 Penn St.  22.64 87.45 19.30
10 Iowa  18.09 142.36 18.90
15 Purdue  16.65 114.46 16.60
16 Wisconsin  15.02 129.11 16.21
37 Michigan St.  9.00 44.23 8.13
46 Maryland  5.70 36.17 5.54
53 Nebraska  -1.85 91.83 3.18
56 Minnesota  1.61 17.43 1.91
64 Indiana  -3.13 41.77 -0.08
65 Northwestern  -0.03 -3.64 -0.19
114 Illinois  -13.28 -171.87 -17.11
124 Rutgers  -22.78 -172.50 -23.47

 

BXII-II

4 Oklahoma  24.62 178.43 24.98
22 Texas Tech  14.00 105.65 14.41
29 Iowa St.  10.92 93.52 11.77
32 West Virginia  12.52 43.16 10.42
34 Texas  9.71 63.99 9.55
43 TCU  3.94 68.94 5.94
45 Oklahoma St.  6.44 29.24 5.70
57 Baylor  0.69 25.97 1.71
74 Kansas St.  0.52 -57.40 -2.41
101 Kansas  -6.32 -98.84 -8.96

 

CUSA

14 North Texas  16.73 135.10 17.64
33 UAB 8.69 81.99 9.73
66 Louisiana Tech  0.36 -12.95 -0.39
73 Southern Miss  -7.48 58.57 -2.17
75 Marshall  -0.77 -41.13 -2.49
84 Florida Intl.  -2.64 -60.81 -4.68
86 Florida Atlantic  -7.05 -6.61 -5.02
99 UNC-Charlotte -12.86 -0.77 -8.61
102 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.87 -95.11 -10.48
110 West. Kentucky  -15.39 -84.42 -14.31
113 Old Dominion -16.53 -117.56 -16.67
119 UTEP  -20.68 -145.07 -20.75
121 UT-San Antonio -20.07 -190.28 -22.52
126 Rice  -25.90 -174.78 -25.66

 

Indies

19 Army  16.36 83.93 14.94
20 Notre Dame  16.28 78.38 14.62
59 BYU  2.20 -2.97 1.33
78 Liberty -3.60 -20.37 -3.38
116 Massachusetts -17.06 -157.26 -18.92
129 New Mexico St.  -26.85 -208.74 -27.92

 

MAC

42 Buffalo  5.66 46.50 6.01
55 East. Michigan  3.47 -7.49 1.95
69 W. Michigan  -4.08 38.94 -0.85
71 Miami (OH)  -2.36 -9.41 -2.03
80 Ohio  -3.14 -35.34 -3.79
81 Northern Illinois  -2.62 -46.01 -3.96
90 Ball St.  -6.39 -34.65 -5.93
96 Toledo  -4.71 -98.34 -7.86
107 Cent. Michigan  -13.95 -74.36 -12.87
112 Akron  -13.34 -142.16 -15.72
123 Kent St.  -22.30 -177.94 -23.41
127 Bowling Green  -28.38 -152.84 -26.26

 

MWC

26 Fresno St.  14.64 68.91 13.07
31 Boise St.  9.39 87.61 10.47
39 Utah St.  13.46 -41.28 6.99
63 San Diego St.  1.94 -15.93 0.53
79 Air Force  -2.24 -40.41 -3.44
88 Wyoming  -5.63 -35.14 -5.44
93 Nevada  -7.86 -44.29 -7.37
97 New Mexico  -7.07 -71.29 -8.14
103 Colorado St.  -14.33 -20.53 -10.54
106 Hawaii  -11.60 -99.05 -12.49
115 UNLV  -15.29 -164.86 -18.11
125 San Jose St.  -24.29 -172.59 -24.48

 

P12

18 Washington  14.74 120.29 15.61
21 Utah  13.76 109.67 14.44
28 Washington St.  9.21 131.52 12.46
40 Colorado  4.83 63.86 6.29
44 Oregon  5.21 48.58 5.80
50 Stanford  9.00 -35.66 4.29
54 Arizona St.  4.20 5.30 3.05
61 USC  2.11 -8.27 1.01
62 UCLA  0.81 4.56 0.76
91 Arizona  -9.90 9.08 -6.17
92 California  -9.48 -18.83 -7.22
122 Oregon St.  -25.50 -118.57 -22.69

 

SBC

11 Appalachian State 19.41 117.35 18.57
72 Arkansas St.  -4.15 13.67 -2.11
76 Troy  -3.85 -13.53 -3.22
87 LA Lafayette  -5.96 -23.14 -5.08
89 Georgia Southern -0.45 -113.54 -5.75
108 Coastal Carolina -13.66 -83.04 -13.10
117 Georgia State -19.65 -133.58 -19.52
118 LA Monroe  -21.01 -124.09 -19.97
120 South Alabama -20.38 -167.69 -21.64
128 Texas St. -25.68 -221.20 -27.74

 

SEC

2 Alabama  37.21 290.28 38.75
5 LSU  24.63 131.21 22.72
6 Texas A&M  16.18 206.57 20.71
7 Georgia  21.43 115.93 19.85
12 Missouri  16.51 149.15 18.17
23 Florida  15.51 76.82 14.03
24 Mississippi St.  13.34 103.37 13.86
27 Kentucky  14.71 65.49 12.95
35 South Carolina  8.95 69.01 9.28
41 Auburn  6.70 37.48 6.27
48 Mississippi  2.57 63.73 4.78
60 Vanderbilt  4.85 -40.07 1.31
70 Tennessee  -1.56 -5.18 -1.29
85 Arkansas  -7.53 6.99 -4.69

 

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Well, I read it every week.  43rd.  Hmmm.   Anne Frank's diary wasn't that sad because she didn't know what was going to ultimately happen to her. 

 

J

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