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DUSHEE Week 7 (2018)

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Duquesne Frog

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Alabama retakes the top spot this week, but the Tide and Clemson have emerged as the clear top 2 with a bunch of B1G teams filling out the rest of the top 5.  Yes, two-loss Penn State is still in the top 5, but they did have the second biggest single score drop of the week (Georgia dropped slightly more), falling over 10 points; the way the numbers worked out, however, they just dropped one spot, getting leapt by Michigan. 

 

Oklahoma did very well against the bye, jumping 2 spots and increasing their score by 2.5 points.  We'll discuss how that happened when we look at Oklahoma's numbers in the 'TCU's next opponent' section. 

 

Frogs Week-by-Week

The Frogs fell 5 spots to 39th, even though their score dropped less than a point.  They fell because a lot of teams just under them jumped with strong performances: Duke, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan St., and Iowa State all leapt the Frogs.

 

Opp:       @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex   |   ISU      Ttech

PD:           11.25         17.67       -8.50   |  6.00      -0.50

YD:          -13.75        199.33     64.17   | 192.00   80.00

Score:       6.82          21.58       -2.51   |   13.44     3.60

 

Due to Iowa State's recent performance, our win against them, while visually ugly, is actually starting to look pretty good comparatively.  The Tech loss was rated as mediocre as you might imagine and by far our best performance is still that loss to Ohio State. 

 

The Frogs are ranked 47th in the country in point differential, but 20th in yardage differential.  This disparity is largely explained by the turnover situation with which we are all too aware.  The Frogs have moved the ball on opponents like a top-20 team, but they sure haven't scored like one.

 

Two pieces of potential solace for Frog fans are 1) neglecting the Southern matchup which is ignored by DUSHEE, the Frogs have the 6th toughest schedule in the country right now, and 2) of the 6 remaining Big 12 games left on our schedule, 4 are against teams actually ranked lower than the Frogs.  So we have that going for us, which is nice.  Missouri has had the toughest schedule according to DUSHEE.

 

Frogs Next Opponent -- Oklahoma

The Sooners have climbed to 6th in the rankings, despite the Texas loss.  Here are their numbers to date:

 

Opp:       FAU      UCLA     @ ISU   |   Army      Bay     N Tex

PD:        50.00     21.60     14.40   |  24.80     37.00     5.50

YD:       379.00    33.00   133.20   |  80.20   242.00   94.50

Score:   51.96     16.02     16.15   |   20.48     36.56     8.31

 

So the Texas game was definitely a dud for the Sooners (and the 'N' stands for 'neutral site', not 'North', for clarification), but outside of that game (Texas seems to have gotten the worst shot out of several of their opponents this year), the Sooners have been pretty impressive this year.  The Army game, which everyone thought was a bad performance for the Sooners, was actually pretty good as the Cadets have far exceeded anybody's expectations and are ranked 12th in DUSHEE Original (and 20th even in DUSHEE Extra Crispy with the added emphasis on schedule strength). 

 

As mentioned above, the Sooners fared well during the bye, improving 2.5 points despite sitting at home.  This was due to UCLA getting a blowout win over Cal, Iowa State whipping WVU, and Army blowing out SJfSU.  Baylor and Texas played each other so that was a wash for the Sooners.  The Sooners comparative performances against those 3 opponents all got big boosts this week.

 

Against common opponents, the Sooners were about 3 points better than the Frogs against Iowa State ... but if you account for the fact that Oklahoma played the Cyclones in Ames and the Frogs got them in Ft. Worth, the Sooners were about 11 points better than the Frogs against Iowa State on a neutral field.  The Sooners were about 11 points better than the Frogs against Texas, but again taking into account the fact that the Frogs played Texas in Austin and Oklahoma played them at a neutral site, the Sooners were about a touchdown better against the Horns.

 

All that said, the Frogs are heavy underdogs to the Sooners ... 12 points, even after giving the Frogs a 4.2 point home field advantage (the current calculated number for the season).  If this game were in Norman, the Frogs would be 3 TD dogs.  DUSHEE gives the Frogs about a 27% chance of winning.

 

Conference Rankings

The Big XII-II still ranks second among the conferences, about a half point better (on average) than the B1G.

 

SEC 12.48
BXII-ii 8.56
B1G 7.97
ACC 3.89
P12 2.51
AAC -3.01
MWC -5.85
MAC -8.87
CUSA -8.98
SBC -10.73

 

Top Performances of the Week

48.72 -- Iowa St vs. WVU (16 MOV, 346 YM)

46.95 -- LSU vs. UGa (20 MOV, 153 YM)

43.98 -- Alabama vs. Mizzou (29 MOV, 352 YM)

 

Bottom Performances of the Week

-56.00 -- New Mexico St. at Louisiana-Lafayette (-28 MOV, -353 YM)

-43.52 -- Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana-Monroe (-25 MOV, -27 YM)

-41.66 -- Western Kentucky at UNC-Charlotte (-26 MOV, -192 YM)

 

Overall Rankings

  Week 7    
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Alabama  37.23 292.39 39.19 1 1.02
2 Clemson  34.97 315.62 38.83 -1 -1.92
3 Michigan  25.69 236.27 28.74 3 2.58
4 Penn St.  30.65 148.43 27.73 -1 -10.17
5 Ohio St.  25.91 187.61 26.50 0 -4.01
6 Oklahoma  25.55 160.32 24.91 2 2.53
7 LSU  24.55 145.18 23.50 8 5.30
8 Appalachian State 23.96 147.25 23.21 -1 -2.91
9 N.C. State  21.28 174.28 22.75 0 0.85
10 Georgia  21.14 126.18 20.30 -6 -10.56
11 Texas A&M  14.72 203.75 19.83 3 0.92
12 Army  19.39 97.35 17.71 7 1.35
13 Kentucky  18.34 96.31 16.96 5 -0.13
14 Florida  18.62 91.31 16.90 8 1.28
15 Mississippi St.  16.93 108.96 16.64 9 3.24
16 North Texas  15.93 120.40 16.54 11 4.70
17 Iowa  15.74 120.15 16.40 0 -0.84
18 Wisconsin  14.83 129.85 16.27 -5 -3.64
19 Notre Dame  17.81 79.64 15.79 -8 -5.09
20 Miami (FL)  12.81 139.15 15.38 0 -0.77
21 Washington  13.93 106.53 14.53 11 4.23
22 Temple  12.68 101.93 13.46 1 -2.06
23 Texas Tech  11.80 103.88 12.97 -11 -7.03
24 West Virginia  14.25 57.43 12.32 -14 -9.44
25 Utah  13.61 65.94 12.31 14 5.05
26 Texas  12.14 85.58 12.30 2 0.98
27 Missouri  10.35 106.18 12.12 -11 -5.25
28 Utah St.  17.39 1.97 11.69 8 2.50
29 Iowa St.  10.85 89.90 11.65 15 6.03
30 Michigan St.  10.95 79.80 11.22 10 4.36
31 UCF  11.78 54.26 10.52 4 1.27
32 Fresno St.  11.12 56.18 10.18 5 1.49
33 Washington St.  6.18 122.83 10.16 -4 -0.67
34 Purdue  7.74 91.82 9.67 14 4.54
35 Maryland  9.30 68.64 9.57 -4 -0.88
36 Minnesota  10.16 56.49 9.55 7 3.22
37 Colorado  7.08 81.72 8.74 -7 -1.98
38 Duke  14.12 -15.76 8.64 4 2.21
39 TCU  5.18 104.35 8.59 -5 -0.67
40 Boise St.  5.81 92.83 8.44 -15 -4.01
41 South Carolina  7.60 59.55 7.99 -20 -7.99
42 Arizona St.  7.82 29.47 6.66 -4 -1.89
43 Boston Coll.  8.14 20.40 6.43 2 0.87
44 Virginia  5.13 56.08 6.17 -3 -0.52
45 Cincinnati  7.21 23.92 5.98 7 2.30
46 Oklahoma St.  6.43 34.03 5.96 -20 -6.09
47 USC  3.66 55.77 5.18 7 1.92
48 UAB 2.75 63.82 4.97 29 8.90
49 Stanford  9.26 -27.76 4.81 2 0.82
50 Buffalo  4.07 41.92 4.78 10 2.56
51 Auburn  4.98 28.40 4.71 -18 -5.49
52 Houston  5.46 9.17 4.09 -6 -1.34
53 Mississippi  1.48 62.99 4.08 -6 -1.10
54 San Diego St.  4.94 11.34 3.85 -5 -0.57
55 Baylor  2.52 34.52 3.38 0 0.40
56 Syracuse  4.40 8.41 3.35 2 0.76
57 Oregon  3.29 21.53 3.25 -4 -0.13
58 Louisiana Tech  2.79 25.83 3.13 13 4.68
59 Georgia Tech  1.68 22.90 2.24 -2 -0.38
60 Northwestern  2.09 4.40 1.61 -4 -1.01
61 UCLA  1.15 2.96 0.91 6 2.19
62 Tulane  1.42 -13.86 0.27 3 0.43
63 Vanderbilt  3.74 -48.10 0.13 -13 -4.05
64 BYU  0.51 -11.84 -0.24 11 2.91
65 Memphis  0.10 -6.48 -0.25 24 6.30
66 Nebraska  -6.71 77.27 -0.68 -7 -3.03
67 Virginia Tech  0.85 -39.40 -1.37 -6 -3.53
68 South Florida  -0.96 -19.56 -1.60 -6 -3.31
69 Kansas St.  1.33 -51.93 -1.67 12 2.92
70 Tennessee  -2.52 -2.79 -1.82 -7 -3.16
71 East. Michigan  -1.63 -15.18 -1.84 12 2.87
72 Arkansas St.  -4.68 25.58 -1.86 0 0.11
73 Liberty -1.70 -16.16 -1.93 9 2.74
74 Pittsburgh  -1.33 -28.83 -2.30 -4 -0.80
75 W. Michigan  -6.98 40.54 -2.66 -9 -1.96
76 Indiana  -5.38 11.25 -3.04 -12 -3.00
77 East Carolina  -8.86 57.18 -3.09 -1 0.18
78 Marshall  -3.03 -24.30 -3.22 14 3.54
79 Air Force  -1.05 -63.81 -3.84 1 0.70
80 Florida Atlantic  -5.75 -13.88 -4.52 -6 -1.70
81 Ball St.  -4.19 -40.35 -4.78 -12 -3.31
82 Kansas  -1.59 -77.26 -4.86 -14 -3.52
83 Tulsa  -4.57 -37.60 -4.90 1 0.19
84 Miami (OH)  -5.37 -30.56 -5.09 11 2.93
85 Southern Miss  -9.30 21.11 -5.16 12 3.63
86 Arkansas  -9.64 12.59 -5.81 2 0.55
87 Troy  -6.80 -26.10 -5.82 3 0.74
88 Florida St.  -6.50 -41.94 -6.40 -2 -0.21
89 Northern Illinois  -4.59 -73.08 -6.65 10 4.57
90 Arizona  -10.89 6.89 -6.92 -12 -2.90
91 Georgia Southern -1.83 -117.38 -6.99 -12 -2.55
92 Florida Intl.  -3.92 -95.99 -7.33 -7 -1.64
93 Ohio  -6.23 -82.53 -8.21 -2 -1.55
94 New Mexico  -5.99 -86.33 -8.23 -21 -6.03
95 Toledo  -6.37 -104.37 -9.38 7 2.43
96 UNC-Charlotte -11.75 -31.89 -9.40 18 9.93
97 Cent. Michigan  -9.26 -65.86 -9.41 8 4.21
98 LA Lafayette  -10.75 -52.13 -9.73 14 7.19
99 Wake Forest  -9.66 -83.12 -10.53 -1 -0.36
100 Wyoming  -10.83 -78.76 -11.09 -6 -3.51
101 Hawaii  -9.17 -101.35 -11.10 -8 -4.22
102 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.22 -84.37 -11.63 2 0.71
103 Nevada  -12.87 -66.96 -11.87 8 4.71
104 Colorado St.  -14.10 -52.52 -11.98 2 1.92
105 SMU  -11.53 -95.90 -12.40 -5 -1.00
106 North Carolina  -19.35 6.43 -12.58 2 2.80
107 California  -15.33 -49.27 -12.64 -20 -6.42
108 Navy  -11.59 -121.52 -13.70 2 2.00
109 Coastal Carolina -15.46 -80.97 -14.29 -6 -2.46
110 Akron  -11.85 -148.08 -15.18 5 4.24
111 West. Kentucky  -16.66 -84.95 -15.28 -15 -7.23
112 Louisville  -15.62 -115.52 -16.09 -5 -1.95
113 Georgia State -15.88 -121.29 -16.55 0 1.76
114 Oregon St.  -19.94 -73.01 -16.88 -5 -1.25
115 Illinois  -13.82 -178.36 -17.98 -14 -6.45
116 UNLV  -17.01 -147.26 -18.58 0 1.17
117 Old Dominion -18.45 -151.84 -19.76 1 1.62
118 South Alabama -19.89 -158.76 -21.07 1 1.57
119 Massachusetts -18.69 -204.50 -22.51 6 4.00
120 UTEP  -22.20 -169.93 -23.15 0 -0.13
121 Bowling Green  -26.38 -118.70 -23.42 6 5.03
122 UT-San Antonio -21.61 -184.59 -23.48 0 0.27
123 Rutgers  -23.27 -173.16 -24.02 -2 -0.64
124 Kent St.  -23.26 -185.63 -24.63 -7 -3.42
125 LA Monroe  -24.99 -168.45 -24.94 3 5.76
126 Rice  -28.60 -171.32 -27.49 -3 -3.35
127 San Jose St.  -27.03 -196.81 -27.69 -3 -2.13
128 Texas St. -27.69 -219.15 -29.24 2 11.88
129 New Mexico St.  -28.53 -229.87 -30.32 -3 -3.56
130 Connecticut  -30.97 -282.32 -34.52 -1 -1.56

 

Rankings by Conference

AAC

22 Temple  12.68 101.93 13.46
31 UCF  11.78 54.26 10.52
45 Cincinnati  7.21 23.92 5.98
52 Houston  5.46 9.17 4.09
62 Tulane  1.42 -13.86 0.27
65 Memphis  0.10 -6.48 -0.25
68 South Florida  -0.96 -19.56 -1.60
77 East Carolina  -8.86 57.18 -3.09
83 Tulsa  -4.57 -37.60 -4.90
105 SMU  -11.53 -95.90 -12.40
108 Navy  -11.59 -121.52 -13.70
130 Connecticut  -30.97 -282.32 -34.52

 

ACC

2 Clemson  34.97 315.62 38.83
9 N.C. State  21.28 174.28 22.75
20 Miami (FL)  12.81 139.15 15.38
38 Duke  14.12 -15.76 8.64
43 Boston Coll.  8.14 20.40 6.43
44 Virginia  5.13 56.08 6.17
56 Syracuse  4.40 8.41 3.35
59 Georgia Tech  1.68 22.90 2.24
67 Virginia Tech  0.85 -39.40 -1.37
74 Pittsburgh  -1.33 -28.83 -2.30
88 Florida St.  -6.50 -41.94 -6.40
99 Wake Forest  -9.66 -83.12 -10.53
106 North Carolina  -19.35 6.43 -12.58
112 Louisville  -15.62 -115.52 -16.09

 

B1G

3 Michigan  25.69 236.27 28.74
4 Penn St.  30.65 148.43 27.73
5 Ohio St.  25.91 187.61 26.50
17 Iowa  15.74 120.15 16.40
18 Wisconsin  14.83 129.85 16.27
30 Michigan St.  10.95 79.80 11.22
34 Purdue  7.74 91.82 9.67
35 Maryland  9.30 68.64 9.57
36 Minnesota  10.16 56.49 9.55
60 Northwestern  2.09 4.40 1.61
66 Nebraska  -6.71 77.27 -0.68
76 Indiana  -5.38 11.25 -3.04
115 Illinois  -13.82 -178.36 -17.98
123 Rutgers  -23.27 -173.16 -24.02

 

BXII-II

6 Oklahoma  25.55 160.32 24.91
23 Texas Tech  11.80 103.88 12.97
24 West Virginia  14.25 57.43 12.32
26 Texas  12.14 85.58 12.30
29 Iowa St.  10.85 89.90 11.65
39 TCU  5.18 104.35 8.59
46 Oklahoma St.  6.43 34.03 5.96
55 Baylor  2.52 34.52 3.38
69 Kansas St.  1.33 -51.93 -1.67
82 Kansas  -1.59 -77.26 -4.86

 

CUSA

16 North Texas  15.93 120.40 16.54
48 UAB 2.75 63.82 4.97
58 Louisiana Tech  2.79 25.83 3.13
78 Marshall  -3.03 -24.30 -3.22
80 Florida Atlantic  -5.75 -13.88 -4.52
85 Southern Miss  -9.30 21.11 -5.16
92 Florida Intl.  -3.92 -95.99 -7.33
96 UNC-Charlotte -11.75 -31.89 -9.40
102 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.22 -84.37 -11.63
111 West. Kentucky  -16.66 -84.95 -15.28
117 Old Dominion -18.45 -151.84 -19.76
120 UTEP  -22.20 -169.93 -23.15
122 UT-San Antonio -21.61 -184.59 -23.48
126 Rice  -28.60 -171.32 -27.49

 

Indies

12 Army  19.39 97.35 17.71
19 Notre Dame  17.81 79.64 15.79
64 BYU  0.51 -11.84 -0.24
73 Liberty -1.70 -16.16 -1.93
119 Massachusetts -18.69 -204.50 -22.51
129 New Mexico St.  -28.53 -229.87 -30.32

 

MAC

50 Buffalo  4.07 41.92 4.78
71 East. Michigan  -1.63 -15.18 -1.84
75 W. Michigan  -6.98 40.54 -2.66
81 Ball St.  -4.19 -40.35 -4.78
84 Miami (OH)  -5.37 -30.56 -5.09
89 Northern Illinois  -4.59 -73.08 -6.65
93 Ohio  -6.23 -82.53 -8.21
95 Toledo  -6.37 -104.37 -9.38
97 Cent. Michigan  -9.26 -65.86 -9.41
110 Akron  -11.85 -148.08 -15.18
121 Bowling Green  -26.38 -118.70 -23.42
124 Kent St.  -23.26 -185.63 -24.63

 

MWC

28 Utah St.  17.39 1.97 11.69
32 Fresno St.  11.12 56.18 10.18
40 Boise St.  5.81 92.83 8.44
54 San Diego St.  4.94 11.34 3.85
79 Air Force  -1.05 -63.81 -3.84
94 New Mexico  -5.99 -86.33 -8.23
100 Wyoming  -10.83 -78.76 -11.09
101 Hawaii  -9.17 -101.35 -11.10
103 Nevada  -12.87 -66.96 -11.87
104 Colorado St.  -14.10 -52.52 -11.98
116 UNLV  -17.01 -147.26 -18.58
127 San Jose St.  -27.03 -196.81 -27.69

 

P12

21 Washington  13.93 106.53 14.53
25 Utah  13.61 65.94 12.31
33 Washington St.  6.18 122.83 10.16
37 Colorado  7.08 81.72 8.74
42 Arizona St.  7.82 29.47 6.66
47 USC  3.66 55.77 5.18
49 Stanford  9.26 -27.76 4.81
57 Oregon  3.29 21.53 3.25
61 UCLA  1.15 2.96 0.91
90 Arizona  -10.89 6.89 -6.92
107 California  -15.33 -49.27 -12.64
114 Oregon St.  -19.94 -73.01 -16.88

 

SBC

8 Appalachian State 23.96 147.25 23.21
72 Arkansas St.  -4.68 25.58 -1.86
87 Troy  -6.80 -26.10 -5.82
91 Georgia Southern -1.83 -117.38 -6.99
98 LA Lafayette  -10.75 -52.13 -9.73
109 Coastal Carolina -15.46 -80.97 -14.29
113 Georgia State -15.88 -121.29 -16.55
118 South Alabama -19.89 -158.76 -21.07
125 LA Monroe  -24.99 -168.45 -24.94
128 Texas St. -27.69 -219.15 -29.24

 

SEC

1 Alabama  37.23 292.39 39.19
7 LSU  24.55 145.18 23.50
10 Georgia  21.14 126.18 20.30
11 Texas A&M  14.72 203.75 19.83
13 Kentucky  18.34 96.31 16.96
14 Florida  18.62 91.31 16.90
15 Mississippi St.  16.93 108.96 16.64
27 Missouri  10.35 106.18 12.12
41 South Carolina  7.60 59.55 7.99
51 Auburn  4.98 28.40 4.71
53 Mississippi  1.48 62.99 4.08
63 Vanderbilt  3.74 -48.10 0.13
70 Tennessee  -2.52 -2.79 -1.82
86 Arkansas  -9.64 12.59 -5.81

 

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