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Week 5 DUSHEE (2018)

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Duquesne Frog

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This week, DUSHEE has pretty much the same top 6 that everybody else has, although perhaps not in the same order ... Bama, Penn St., Clempson, Ohio St., UGa, and Noater.  After that, DUSHEE is still a little crazy with App. St. (they did fall 4 spots) and Kentucky next in line.  Our Frogs fell 5 spots to #33.

 

Top and Bottom Performances of the Week

 

Now that we are 5 weeks in, we can go back and see what the top and bottom DUSHEE-rated performances of each week were.  Keep in mind that these ratings vary with each new week ... what is the top-rated game from Week 1 now may not be considered the top-rated game from Week 1 by season's end.  A few comments:

  • The parenthetical numbers after the matchup are the MOV and YM, respectively.
  • Yes, I recognize that Penn State getting a better score than Ohio State when Ohio State won doesn't make a lot of sense, but that is the way the numbers worked out.  Ohio State beat its other opponents by an average of 37.5 points and out-gaining by 276 yards.  Penn State's numbers against its opponents were 36 points and 175 yards.  Since the teams were almost dead even in MOV going in and the MOV for the game was almost dead even, it was the yardage margin that carried the day for Penn State here.  DUSHEE is arguing that Ohio State got a bit lucky to win given the yardage margin.
  • You'd think that Penn State barely getting by App St. in Week 1 would be hurting them, but since App, St. has continued to destroy everybody else they play, the comparative analysis is still greatly overweighing this game.  While I think the evidence that App. St. is actually a top-25 level team is mounting, I would still expect the significance DUSHEE is placing in this game to diminish as App. St. inevitably plays some closer games against their Sun Belt brethren.
  • Right now, Technological's Week 4 whipping of Okie Light is the highest rated DUSHEE game of the year.  We will talk more about Tech in the TCU's Next Opponent section, since next week's DUSHEE will come out late next week (the monkey who does the data entry is running in the Chicago Marathon on Sunday)

 

Week 5

Top 3

43.29 - Penn St vs. Ohio St (-1, 103)

42.14 - Tulane vs. Memphis (16, 219)

41.68 - Oklahoma vs. Baylor (33, 154)

Bottom 3

-65.01 - ULaMon at Georgia St. (-32, -226)

-48.23 - Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (-46, -139)

-42.72 - Memphis at Tulane (-16, -219)

 

Week 4

Top 3

56.82 - Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. (24, 235)

48.76 - Maryland vs. Minnesota (29, 168)

47.83 - Michigan vs. Nebraska (46, 350)

Bottom 3

-48.80 - Kent St. at Mississippi (-21, -261)

-43.23 - Oregon St. vs. Arizona (-21, -356)

-38.91 - UNC-Charlotte at UMass (-18, 33)

 

Week 3

Top 3

54.82 - Clemson vs. Georgia So. (31, 455)

54.40 - Oklahoma St. vs. Boise St. (23, 10)

54.08 - Alabama at Mississippi (55, 269)

Bottom 3

-60.28 - UTEP at Tennessee (-24, -378)

-54.02 - San Jose St. at Oregon St. (-13, -147)

-49.05 - Rutgers at Kansas (-41, -270)

 

Week 2

Top 3

51.67 - Michigan vs. W. Michigan (46, 243)

49.46 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St (50, 208)

42.31 - Ohio St. vs. Rutgers (49, 445)

Bottom 3

-57.53 - UConn at Boise St. (-55, -629)

-44.37 - S. Alabama at Oklahoma St. (-42, -403)

-43.67 - UMass at Georgia So. (-21, -165)

 

Week 1

Top 3

47.55 - Oklahoma vs. FAU  (49, 326)

41.99 - Penn St. vs. App. St. (7, -17)

39.60 - S. Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina (34, 318)

Bottom 3

-65.10 - Texas St. at Rutgers (-28, -247)

-59.45 - Old Dominion at Liberty (-24, -290)

-58.03 - New Mexico St. vs. Wyoming (-22, -315)

 

Conference Rankings

SEC 15.13
B12 11.22
B10 9.63
ACC 4.56
P12 2.94
AAC -2.99
MWC -8.56
CUSA -11.20
MAC -11.75
SBC -14.32

 

The Big XII-II is still second but fell a little further away from the SEC and closer to the B1G.

 

TCU

DUSHEE wasn't terribly impressed with the Frog's gutty (euphemism for ugly) win against Iowa State, primarily because it hasn't been all that impressed with Iowa State so far this year.  The Cyclones are ranked a very mediocre #51 in this week's DUSHEE.

 

TCU's week-by-week numbers

Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex  ISU
PD: 14.33 22.75 -7.50 0.67
YD: 5.00 231.75 86.25 107.33
Score: 9.81 26.75 -0.69 5.81

 

Frog's Next Opponent: Texas Tech

As I mentioned above, the next DUSHEE rankings will be coming out late and probably without much analysis so I'll go ahead and tease Tech's numbers now.  Right now the Matadors are ranked #18 based on the following week-by-week numbers:

 

Opp: N Miss   Hou     @OkSt  |  WVU

PD:    -41.00    37.00    52.33  |  19.50

YD:   -146.33  147.50  438.67 | 170.00

Score: -34.65  32.04   56.82   |    21.50

 

Tech laid a pretty massive turd in week 1 against what is now obviously a pretty mediocre Ole Miss team.  Since then, they've been pretty impressive, even in a close loss at home to WVU.  And as mentioned above, their curb-stomping of Okie St has been the highest rated DUSHEE game of the season so far.  Based on DUSHEE score, and giving the Frogs 3.5 points as the home team, Tech is about a 5-point favorite, but given Tech's wide variability (there is damn near a 100-point difference between their best score and worst score) there is a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty in the outcome of this one.  If the Tech team that played Ole Miss shows up, the Frogs win easily.  However, if the Tech team of the next three weeks appears at AGCS ... it will get ugly in the direction not favorable to the Frogs.  TCU has about a 45% chance of winning according to the numbers.

 

DUSHEE Rankings

Alabama is still your #1, but DUSHEE was not terribly impressed by their performance against ULaLa, dropping their average DUSHEE score by almost 10 points.  Perhaps even more detrimental to Bama's score was the precipitous drop of Texas A&M, who had the 2nd largest drop in DUSHEE score (-13.27, almost 2 TDs) after barely beating a terrible Arkansas team.  NC State was a big climber this week, rising 28 spots in the ranking up to #10 overall.  Oklahoma also vaulted 11 spots to take over the highest ranking in the Big XII-II (#12).  Notre Dame jumped 8 spots to #6 and Auburn jumped 19 spots to #24 due to the fact that all of their previous opponents won impressively.  The biggest climber this week both in terms of rank and score was the mighty Tulane Green Wave whose surprising dismantling of what had appeared to be a decent Memphis team lifted Tulane 48 spots and almost 21 points to #63.

 

  Week 5    
Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Alabama  39.20 222.97 37.28 0 -9.56
2 Penn St.  38.63 188.18 35.16 0 -0.55
3 Clemson  29.67 290.04 34.28 2 0.14
4 Ohio St.  32.95 214.53 32.69 4 0.27
5 Georgia  28.13 234.38 30.47 -1 -3.87
6 Notre Dame  30.47 166.88 28.65 8 3.92
7 Appalachian State 27.50 169.97 26.83 -4 -8.54
8 Kentucky  25.33 173.58 25.57 -2 -7.23
9 Michigan  20.15 234.42 25.15 2 -3.14
10 N.C. State  24.44 159.67 24.28 28 12.00
11 South Carolina  20.08 204.83 23.63 -4 -8.90
12 Oklahoma  24.27 147.12 23.53 11 4.68
13 Oklahoma St.  23.60 148.81 23.18 0 -1.78
14 LSU  25.71 113.92 22.83 2 0.42
15 Wisconsin  21.00 166.21 22.31 -3 -5.41
16 West Virginia  19.67 148.89 20.55 -6 -9.93
17 Washington  19.83 118.60 19.15 9 1.71
18 Texas Tech  16.96 152.46 18.93 0 -2.32
19 Miami (FL)  19.46 118.79 18.91 1 -1.90
20 Missouri  15.50 171.17 18.89 -3 -2.90
21 Boise St.  16.75 147.92 18.56 1 -0.36
22 Texas A&M  13.40 190.58 18.46 -13 -13.27
23 Army  19.07 114.12 18.42 8 2.92
24 Auburn  19.46 87.08 17.33 19 8.01
25 North Texas  14.50 142.13 16.77 -10 -5.68
26 Washington St.  8.35 194.71 15.30 3 -0.66
27 Florida  17.83 65.42 15.16 7 1.00
28 Iowa  13.39 105.44 14.20 8 0.44
29 Michigan St.  13.52 90.46 13.54 1 -2.43
30 Maryland  11.63 99.54 12.73 2 -1.99
31 Texas  9.72 91.17 11.04 4 -2.91
32 Virginia  8.06 104.94 10.62 29 8.86
33 TCU  7.56 107.58 10.42 -5 -5.92
34 Temple  10.58 64.63 10.29 -7 -6.97
35 Mississippi St.  11.17 46.92 9.79 -16 -11.25
36 Minnesota  10.06 56.35 9.53 6 -0.47
37 Fresno St.  9.00 53.72 8.69 9 1.68
38 Stanford  15.35 -35.21 8.48 -13 -9.26
39 Arizona St.  8.60 38.60 7.66 10 2.30
40 USC  5.13 74.92 7.17 -1 -4.16
41 Duke  11.60 -11.44 7.16 -20 -13.04
42 East Carolina  0.69 131.00 7.01 -9 -7.50
43 Baylor  5.23 68.00 6.89 -19 -11.62
44 Boston Coll.  9.17 14.44 6.83 19 6.07
45 Syracuse  7.17 39.42 6.75 13 4.41
46 Purdue  3.30 86.17 6.51 -9 -5.80
47 Utah  3.81 69.86 6.03 31 11.83
48 Vanderbilt  5.19 43.58 5.64 18 5.50
49 South Florida  8.11 -4.00 5.21 16 4.68
50 Louisiana Tech  3.94 49.86 5.12 31 12.20
51 Iowa St.  8.19 -8.63 5.03 -6 -2.99
52 UCF  6.22 9.67 4.63 31 12.62
53 Houston  4.44 21.33 4.03 -9 -4.17
54 Oregon  5.00 12.33 3.95 17 6.05
55 Colorado  1.22 56.56 3.64 13 3.94
56 Utah St.  10.61 -72.72 3.44 0 1.00
57 Virginia Tech  8.53 -46.03 3.38 28 11.76
58 Northwestern  2.15 3.54 1.61 9 1.57
59 Ball St.  2.15 -1.90 1.34 -7 -1.91
60 Ohio  1.58 2.47 1.18 9 2.12
61 Nebraska  -6.33 106.21 1.09 1 -0.47
62 Buffalo  1.10 6.67 1.07 -21 -9.74
63 Tulane  1.17 5.33 1.04 48 20.91
64 Tennessee  -1.88 33.58 0.43 -14 -3.86
65 Cincinnati  1.75 -25.65 -0.12 17 7.24
66 Indiana  -3.62 38.33 -0.49 -6 -2.50
67 Marshall  0.28 -14.75 -0.55 -16 -4.71
68 W. Michigan  -6.98 80.17 -0.65 6 3.84
69 Arkansas St.  -3.56 31.81 -0.78 -10 -2.81
70 Wake Forest  0.65 -30.33 -1.09 23 10.70
71 Kansas  1.10 -36.71 -1.10 -24 -7.21
72 Liberty -0.38 -22.56 -1.38 -15 -3.77
73 UCLA  -2.48 -2.13 -1.76 16 7.63
74 BYU  -0.54 -29.25 -1.82 -34 -12.70
75 San Diego St.  0.83 -58.92 -2.39 -11 -2.93
76 Mississippi  -3.25 -14.21 -2.88 -28 -8.29
77 California  -6.67 16.78 -3.61 -23 -6.58
78 Florida Intl.  2.21 -110.06 -4.03 2 2.58
79 Memphis  -4.67 -34.33 -4.83 -26 -7.97
80 Southern Miss  -10.00 25.89 -5.37 -10 -3.29
81 Georgia Tech  -8.04 -5.54 -5.64 3 2.72
82 Troy  -7.33 -15.67 -5.67 13 6.90
83 Kansas St.  -2.38 -92.69 -6.22 -11 -2.58
84 West. Kentucky  -7.33 -30.96 -6.44 3 2.22
85 East. Michigan  -5.60 -60.35 -6.75 -30 -9.68
86 Tulsa  -11.94 -1.86 -8.06 0 0.42
87 Hawaii  -4.50 -105.40 -8.27 -12 -3.41
88 Florida St.  -8.42 -54.65 -8.34 -9 -2.06
89 Toledo  -5.50 -102.83 -8.81 12 5.40
90 Arizona  -12.54 -22.23 -9.47 -14 -4.42
91 Wyoming  -11.60 -35.10 -9.49 6 3.11
92 UNLV  -11.06 -43.42 -9.54 8 4.22
93 Pittsburgh  -9.92 -59.67 -9.59 -1 2.16
94 Navy  -8.86 -85.03 -10.16 -21 -5.74
95 Florida Atlantic  -12.75 -33.38 -10.17 -18 -4.65
96 UAB -13.89 -28.11 -10.66 20 14.28
97 Arkansas  -17.08 12.08 -10.78 -7 -0.39
98 Louisville  -9.85 -89.17 -11.03 -4 0.90
99 Georgia Southern -7.00 -148.86 -12.11 0 1.14
100 Cent. Michigan  -12.25 -88.69 -12.60 -4 -0.02
101 SMU  -12.46 -86.65 -12.64 -10 -1.77
102 North Carolina  -22.25 42.50 -12.71 -14 -3.82
103 Miami (OH)  -14.13 -80.23 -13.43 4 5.18
104 Old Dominion -10.57 -149.57 -14.52 9 6.65
105 Colorado St.  -16.46 -76.33 -14.79 4 4.71
106 Akron  -10.00 -197.33 -16.53 -3 -1.11
107 Air Force  -12.78 -181.44 -17.59 1 1.48
108 New Mexico  -15.28 -166.31 -18.50 7 4.22
109 Illinois  -12.33 -207.28 -18.58 -3 -0.14
110 Northern Illinois  -17.30 -147.93 -18.93 7 8.44
111 Georgia State -19.21 -122.83 -18.95 10 11.64
112 Coastal Carolina -18.92 -127.71 -19.00 -7 -2.96
113 Middle Tenn. St.  -22.56 -88.00 -19.44 -1 1.01
114 Rutgers  -19.30 -154.02 -20.57 -12 -5.86
115 South Alabama -19.00 -165.30 -20.93 -5 -1.16
116 Oregon St.  -22.67 -122.92 -21.26 -2 1.27
117 Rice  -21.10 -145.77 -21.36 -13 -5.51
118 UNC-Charlotte -24.56 -107.44 -21.75 2 8.50
119 LA Lafayette  -20.92 -210.97 -24.49 0 4.63
120 LA Monroe  -27.88 -150.63 -26.11 -22 -13.37
121 Nevada  -27.04 -164.25 -26.24 4 10.77
122 San Jose St.  -22.50 -231.53 -26.57 6 17.62
123 UT-San Antonio -25.42 -221.40 -28.01 0 4.49
124 Bowling Green  -35.33 -171.23 -32.12 -6 -4.52
125 Connecticut  -26.88 -287.13 -32.27 -3 -0.65
126 Massachusetts -27.47 -292.77 -32.95 1 6.46
127 Kent St.  -32.17 -266.21 -34.75 -3 1.06
128 UTEP  -36.31 -242.56 -36.33 -2 2.89
129 New Mexico St.  -38.50 -289.70 -40.15 0 5.54
130 Texas St. -39.75 -309.92 -41.99 0 3.89

 

Rankings by Conference

AAC

34 Temple  10.58 64.63 10.29
42 East Carolina  0.69 131.00 7.01
49 South Florida  8.11 -4.00 5.21
52 UCF  6.22 9.67 4.63
53 Houston  4.44 21.33 4.03
63 Tulane  1.17 5.33 1.04
65 Cincinnati  1.75 -25.65 -0.12
79 Memphis  -4.67 -34.33 -4.83
86 Tulsa  -11.94 -1.86 -8.06
94 Navy  -8.86 -85.03 -10.16
101 SMU  -12.46 -86.65 -12.64
125 Connecticut  -26.88 -287.13 -32.27

 

ACC

3 Clemson  29.67 290.04 34.28
10 N.C. State  24.44 159.67 24.28
19 Miami (FL)  19.46 118.79 18.91
32 Virginia  8.06 104.94 10.62
41 Duke  11.60 -11.44 7.16
44 Boston Coll.  9.17 14.44 6.83
45 Syracuse  7.17 39.42 6.75
57 Virginia Tech  8.53 -46.03 3.38
70 Wake Forest  0.65 -30.33 -1.09
81 Georgia Tech  -8.04 -5.54 -5.64
88 Florida St.  -8.42 -54.65 -8.34
93 Pittsburgh  -9.92 -59.67 -9.59
98 Louisville  -9.85 -89.17 -11.03
102 North Carolina  -22.25 42.50 -12.71

 

B1G

2 Penn St.  38.63 188.18 35.16
4 Ohio St.  32.95 214.53 32.69
9 Michigan  20.15 234.42 25.15
15 Wisconsin  21.00 166.21 22.31
28 Iowa  13.39 105.44 14.20
29 Michigan St.  13.52 90.46 13.54
30 Maryland  11.63 99.54 12.73
36 Minnesota  10.06 56.35 9.53
46 Purdue  3.30 86.17 6.51
58 Northwestern  2.15 3.54 1.61
61 Nebraska  -6.33 106.21 1.09
66 Indiana  -3.62 38.33 -0.49
109 Illinois  -12.33 -207.28 -18.58
114 Rutgers  -19.30 -154.02 -20.57

 

Big XII-II

12 Oklahoma  24.27 147.12 23.53
13 Oklahoma St.  23.60 148.81 23.18
16 West Virginia  19.67 148.89 20.55
18 Texas Tech  16.96 152.46 18.93
31 Texas  9.72 91.17 11.04
33 TCU  7.56 107.58 10.42
43 Baylor  5.23 68.00 6.89
51 Iowa St.  8.19 -8.63 5.03
71 Kansas  1.10 -36.71 -1.10
83 Kansas St.  -2.38 -92.69 -6.22

 

CUSA

25 North Texas  14.50 142.13 16.77
50 Louisiana Tech  3.94 49.86 5.12
67 Marshall  0.28 -14.75 -0.55
78 Florida Intl.  2.21 -110.06 -4.03
80 Southern Miss  -10.00 25.89 -5.37
84 West. Kentucky  -7.33 -30.96 -6.44
95 Florida Atlantic  -12.75 -33.38 -10.17
96 UAB -13.89 -28.11 -10.66
104 Old Dominion -10.57 -149.57 -14.52
113 Middle Tenn. St.  -22.56 -88.00 -19.44
117 Rice  -21.10 -145.77 -21.36
118 UNC-Charlotte -24.56 -107.44 -21.75
123 UT-San Antonio -25.42 -221.40 -28.01
128 UTEP  -36.31 -242.56 -36.33

 

Indies

6 Notre Dame  30.47 166.88 28.65
23 Army  19.07 114.12 18.42
72 Liberty -0.38 -22.56 -1.38
74 BYU  -0.54 -29.25 -1.82
126 Massachusetts -27.47 -292.77 -32.95
129 New Mexico St.  -38.50 -289.70 -40.15

 

MAC

59 Ball St.  2.15 -1.90 1.34
60 Ohio  1.58 2.47 1.18
62 Buffalo  1.10 6.67 1.07
68 W. Michigan  -6.98 80.17 -0.65
85 East. Michigan  -5.60 -60.35 -6.75
89 Toledo  -5.50 -102.83 -8.81
100 Cent. Michigan  -12.25 -88.69 -12.60
103 Miami (OH)  -14.13 -80.23 -13.43
106 Akron  -10.00 -197.33 -16.53
110 Northern Illinois  -17.30 -147.93 -18.93
124 Bowling Green  -35.33 -171.23 -32.12
127 Kent St.  -32.17 -266.21 -34.75

 

MWC

21 Boise St.  16.75 147.92 18.56
37 Fresno St.  9.00 53.72 8.69
56 Utah St.  10.61 -72.72 3.44
75 San Diego St.  0.83 -58.92 -2.39
87 Hawaii  -4.50 -105.40 -8.27
91 Wyoming  -11.60 -35.10 -9.49
92 UNLV  -11.06 -43.42 -9.54
105 Colorado St.  -16.46 -76.33 -14.79
107 Air Force  -12.78 -181.44 -17.59
108 New Mexico  -15.28 -166.31 -18.50
121 Nevada  -27.04 -164.25 -26.24
122 San Jose St.  -22.50 -231.53 -26.57

 

PAC12

17 Washington  19.83 118.60 19.15
26 Washington St.  8.35 194.71 15.30
38 Stanford  15.35 -35.21 8.48
39 Arizona St.  8.60 38.60 7.66
40 USC  5.13 74.92 7.17
47 Utah  3.81 69.86 6.03
54 Oregon  5.00 12.33 3.95
55 Colorado  1.22 56.56 3.64
73 UCLA  -2.48 -2.13 -1.76
77 California  -6.67 16.78 -3.61
90 Arizona  -12.54 -22.23 -9.47
116 Oregon St.  -22.67 -122.92 -21.26

 

SBC

7 Appalachian State 27.50 169.97 26.83
69 Arkansas St.  -3.56 31.81 -0.78
82 Troy  -7.33 -15.67 -5.67
99 Georgia Southern -7.00 -148.86 -12.11
111 Georgia State -19.21 -122.83 -18.95
112 Coastal Carolina -18.92 -127.71 -19.00
115 South Alabama -19.00 -165.30 -20.93
119 LA Lafayette  -20.92 -210.97 -24.49
120 LA Monroe  -27.88 -150.63 -26.11
130 Texas St. -39.75 -309.92 -41.99

 

SEC

1 Alabama  39.20 222.97 37.28
5 Georgia  28.13 234.38 30.47
8 Kentucky  25.33 173.58 25.57
11 South Carolina  20.08 204.83 23.63
14 LSU  25.71 113.92 22.83
20 Missouri  15.50 171.17 18.89
22 Texas A&M  13.40 190.58 18.46
24 Auburn  19.46 87.08 17.33
27 Florida  17.83 65.42 15.16
35 Mississippi St.  11.17 46.92 9.79
48 Vanderbilt  5.19 43.58 5.64
64 Tennessee  -1.88 33.58 0.43
76 Mississippi  -3.25 -14.21 -2.88
97 Arkansas  -17.08 12.08 -10.78
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