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Inaugural 2018 DUSHEE (Week 4)

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Duquesne Frog

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So the critical threshold has been crossed ... every FBS team has played at least two other FBS teams, which allows DUSHEE to calculate a score for each team without dividing by zeros or linearly extrapolating single points and other mathematical impossibilities that it doesn't like to do.  To no one's surprise, Alabama is #1 by a mile.  But this year's inaugural poll comes with the same caveat that every inaugural DUSHEE poll comes with ... just because there is enough data to calculate scores doesn't mean there is enough data to calculate valid scores.  And there is some craziness in this initial ranking that may exceed the craziness seen in any other initial DUSHEE ranking.  Baylor, who always seems to be an early season DUSHEE favorite before falling precipitously later in the season, is a top 25 team.  North Texas comes in ranked #15.  Kentucky is your 6th best team in the country.  And if the season ended today, App State is replaying Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

 

But before we get to that, let's go through some of the changes that have occurred between this season and last in college football.  Idaho has left us as an FBS school, but has been replaced by the Fightin' Jerry Falwells, aka the Liberty Flames, as an FBS independent.  New Mexico State, like Idaho, has been dropped by the Sun Belt, but remains in FBS as an independent, swelling their ranks to 6.

 

So let's take a look at a few of our initial WTF teams and see why they're where they are.

 

Initial WTF Teams

 

  • App State

App State is ranked 3rd on the basis of two games, their 45-38 loss to Penn State in week 1 and a 45-9 whipping of UNC-Charlotte in week 2.  Their week 3 tilt with Southern Miss was cancelled/postponed due to Florence and last week they destroyed FCS Gardner-Webb, which doesn't factor into DUSHEE.  As we've discussed in the past, DUSHEE does reward moral victories, and at this point at least, that loss to Penn State looks like a BIG moral victory.  App State's MOV (-7) and Yardage Margin (+17) against Penn State is currently being compared to Pitt's numbers against Penn State in Week 2 (-45 MOV and -90 YM), Kent State's in Week 3 (-53 MOV and -446 YM), and Illinois in Week 4 (-39 MOV and -180 YM).  So if you crunch the numbers, App State did 38.7 points better than Penn State's average opponent and 238.7 yards better.

 

And this elucidates the problem with too little data.  As of this point, Penn State's average opponent is nowhere near an average FBS team; in fact Penn State's strength of schedule is 103rd out of 130 schools if you include 3rd ranked Appalachian State.  If you don't include them, App State's performance is being compared against the 92nd (Pitt), 124th (Kent St.), and 106th (Illinois) ranked teams.  Compared to those teams, App State looks like a world beater.

 

Penn State's SOS starts to even up a bit when they face Ohio State this week.  App State will drop as Penn State plays (presumably) tighter games against stiffer competition and App State plays closer games against their mediocre conference slate.  That said, if App State waltzes through the Sun Belt, and there is little indication they won't, look for that close game against Penn State to keep the (other) Mountaineers in the top 25.

 

  • North Texas

North Texas comes in #15 on the basis of a +23 MOV, +273 YM performance against SMU, a +27 MOV, +40 YM performance against Arkansas, and a +40 MOV, +179 YM performance against Liberty.  Not exactly a murderer's row of opponents, but UNT looks comparatively good next to TCU's performance against SMU (+30 MOV, +151 YM) and Auburn's performance against Arkansas (+31 MOV, -65 YM).  But the game that really inflates UNT's DUSHEE score is Liberty's week 1 mauling of Old Dominion (+42 MOV, +290 YM), which after Old Dominion's week 4 upset of Virginia Tech (+14 MOV, +32 YM), gives North Texas a huge boost in DUSHEE.

 

  • Baylor

Baylor beat a bad UTSA pretty soundly (+17 MOV, +239 YM), lost to a decent (ranked 21) Duke team (-13 MOV, -3 YM), and beat what DUSHEE does not consider an awful (ranked 47th, at this point, noting that DUSHEE is ignoring their loss to Nichols St.) Kansas team (+19 MOV, +176 YM).  I don't expect either Baylor or Kansas to stay this high once both start playing the meat of their Big XII-II schedule.

 

Conference Rankings

 

Right now, with most of the non-conference tilts decided and heading into conference play, the ACC and Pac-12 look incredibly mediocre, much closer to the American (slogan: No, there's a Power SIX!  Really!  It says so on our first down markers!) than they do the SEC, Big XII-II, and B1G.  Speaking of which, if there is any consolation to what has been a bad two weeks for Frog fans, DUSHEE thinks the Big XII-II is the second strongest conference, on average.

 

SEC 19.03
B12 15.48
B10 11.52
P12 2.14
ACC 1.78
AAC -3.91
MAC -11.67
MWC -12.07
CUSA -13.41
SBC -14.26

 

TCU

 

The Frogs enter the rankings at #28, which seems about right, even if there are teams above and below them that are clearly misplaced at this point.  Here are the Frogs DUSHEE numbers at this point, once again acknowledging that the week 1 game against Southern is ignored.  PD is "point differential" which is MOV compared to the opponent's opponents average MOV; YD is "yardage differential," performing the same comparison for offensive total yardage; "score" is the DUSHEE score which adjusts the PD based on YD with a methodology described elsewhere in this blog.

 

Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex
PD: 14.33 34.00 -6.67
YD: 5.00 348.33 73.00
Score: 9.80 40.03 -0.81

 

DUSHEE is currently greatly rewarding the Frogs for their moral victory over the Buckeyes.  Too bad we couldn't have made it an actual victory.  Would have made that turd against Texas a little easier to swallow.

 

Frogs Next Opponent: Iowa State

 

DUSHEE currently has Iowa State ranked #45 with a DUSHEE score of 8.02.  With TCU's DUSHEE score at 16.34 and giving the Frogs a home field advantage boost of 3.5 points (based on previous years' numbers; there have not been enough games played to establish a number for this season), DUSHEE has the Frogs as a 12-point favorite against the Cyclones with a ~70% chance of winning. 

 

But if the teams that showed up last week play each other, DUSHEE likes Iowa State to win by a TD or so.

 

Opp: @ Iowa  OU  Akr
PD: -2.50 18.00 18.00
YD: -18.00 62.67 -10.00
Score: -2.56 15.12 11.50

 

Rankings

 

Rank Team PD YD Score
1 Alabama  50.25 267.50 46.84
2 Penn St.  41.88 156.38 35.71
3 Appalachian State 33.58 260.33 35.37
4 Georgia  31.83 263.17 34.34
5 Clemson  27.33 319.33 34.14
6 Kentucky  32.17 227.67 32.79
7 South Carolina  30.50 244.56 32.52
8 Ohio St.  31.38 230.75 32.42
9 Texas A&M  29.22 245.72 31.73
10 West Virginia  27.75 240.50 30.49
11 Michigan  26.17 217.63 28.29
12 Wisconsin  27.13 193.38 27.72
13 Oklahoma St.  26.50 146.28 24.96
14 Notre Dame  27.38 130.00 24.73
15 North Texas  20.67 174.06 22.45
16 LSU  25.50 108.50 22.41
17 Missouri  17.67 200.78 21.79
18 Texas Tech  18.83 174.33 21.25
19 Mississippi St.  18.17 179.17 21.04
20 Miami (FL)  21.11 135.22 20.82
21 Duke  24.17 82.11 20.20
22 Boise St.  16.33 161.17 18.92
23 Oklahoma  18.92 125.25 18.85
24 Baylor  17.28 140.17 18.51
25 Stanford  23.72 38.50 17.73
26 Washington  18.22 106.17 17.44
27 Temple  19.89 80.28 17.26
28 TCU  13.89 142.11 16.34
29 Washington St.  9.83 188.78 15.97
30 Michigan St.  17.06 92.11 15.96
31 Army  15.29 106.42 15.50
32 Maryland  15.17 92.46 14.72
33 East Carolina  10.75 147.25 14.51
34 Florida  19.56 22.50 14.16
35 Texas  13.54 98.71 13.95
36 Iowa  13.06 101.33 13.76
37 Purdue  5.50 173.25 12.30
38 N.C. State  15.00 45.75 12.28
39 USC  11.17 77.96 11.33
40 BYU  11.11 69.56 10.87
41 Buffalo  12.94 43.67 10.81
42 Minnesota  10.10 65.48 10.00
43 Auburn  15.00 -13.67 9.32
44 Houston  8.67 48.67 8.20
45 Iowa St.  11.17 11.56 8.02
46 Fresno St.  4.58 79.33 7.01
47 Kansas  6.61 34.22 6.11
48 Mississippi  3.89 56.56 5.41
49 Arizona St.  6.17 25.17 5.37
50 Tennessee  1.33 68.17 4.29
51 Marshall  7.17 -12.50 4.15
52 Ball St.  2.89 26.56 3.25
53 Memphis  1.56 42.17 3.14
54 California  2.25 29.50 2.97
55 East. Michigan  1.78 34.94 2.93
56 Utah St.  9.50 -78.17 2.44
57 Liberty -0.89 59.83 2.39
58 Syracuse  1.33 29.00 2.33
59 Arkansas St.  -1.06 54.83 2.03
60 Indiana  -1.00 53.58 2.00
61 Virginia  0.61 27.17 1.76
62 Nebraska  -5.56 105.56 1.56
63 Boston Coll.  -1.06 29.33 0.76
64 San Diego St.  3.06 -30.00 0.54
65 South Florida  4.50 -49.67 0.52
66 Vanderbilt  0.04 2.13 0.13
67 Northwestern  -2.39 32.72 0.04
68 Colorado  -0.92 6.33 -0.30
69 Ohio  3.50 -65.75 -0.94
70 Southern Miss  -11.25 108.75 -2.08
71 Oregon  1.17 -57.67 -2.10
72 Kansas St.  -1.94 -47.00 -3.64
73 Navy  -3.89 -36.61 -4.42
74 W. Michigan  -9.22 33.44 -4.48
75 Hawaii  -1.63 -75.79 -4.86
76 Arizona  -10.83 43.50 -5.05
77 Florida Atlantic  -6.33 -26.00 -5.52
78 Utah  -7.00 -22.83 -5.80
79 Florida St.  -9.39 -0.39 -6.28
80 Florida Intl.  -2.04 -105.21 -6.61
81 Louisiana Tech  -9.92 -9.33 -7.08
82 Cincinnati  -3.67 -98.61 -7.36
83 UCF  -2.50 -126.75 -7.99
84 Georgia Tech  -15.00 33.00 -8.35
85 Virginia Tech  -6.58 -79.92 -8.37
86 Tulsa  -11.17 -20.78 -8.48
87 West. Kentucky  -11.33 -22.06 -8.66
88 North Carolina  -16.67 44.50 -8.89
89 UCLA  -11.17 -38.94 -9.39
90 Arkansas  -19.28 49.22 -10.40
91 SMU  -9.29 -93.75 -10.87
92 Pittsburgh  -14.67 -39.67 -11.76
93 Wake Forest  -13.11 -61.17 -11.79
94 Louisville  -7.72 -135.94 -11.93
95 Troy  -17.00 -24.83 -12.57
96 Cent. Michigan  -12.78 -81.50 -12.58
97 Wyoming  -15.25 -48.75 -12.60
98 LA Monroe  -18.17 -12.67 -12.74
99 Georgia Southern -6.83 -174.42 -13.25
100 UNLV  -13.78 -91.72 -13.76
101 Toledo  -10.75 -141.25 -14.21
102 Rutgers  -13.71 -111.75 -14.71
103 Akron  -11.50 -155.50 -15.42
104 Rice  -12.94 -144.83 -15.85
105 Coastal Carolina -16.17 -105.50 -16.04
106 Illinois  -10.33 -231.83 -18.45
107 Miami (OH)  -18.42 -127.17 -18.62
108 Air Force  -15.25 -178.50 -19.07
109 Colorado St.  -20.04 -123.21 -19.50
110 South Alabama -17.38 -164.25 -19.77
111 Tulane  -20.44 -125.11 -19.87
112 Middle Tenn. St.  -25.00 -75.92 -20.45
113 Old Dominion -18.00 -183.92 -21.17
114 Oregon St.  -25.11 -116.00 -22.52
115 New Mexico  -14.75 -258.46 -22.72
116 UAB -28.25 -122.50 -24.94
117 Northern Illinois  -25.75 -204.75 -27.37
118 Bowling Green  -29.89 -153.89 -27.60
119 LA Lafayette  -26.75 -226.50 -29.12
120 UNC-Charlotte -33.89 -153.44 -30.24
121 Georgia State -31.50 -192.33 -30.59
122 Connecticut  -26.50 -279.83 -31.62
123 UT-San Antonio -30.92 -238.63 -32.51
124 Kent St.  -30.22 -314.22 -35.81
125 Nevada  -35.50 -267.61 -37.01
126 UTEP  -38.83 -267.42 -39.22
127 Massachusetts -33.71 -339.71 -39.41
128 San Jose St.  -37.75 -381.75 -44.20
129 New Mexico St.  -42.13 -353.07 -45.69
130 Texas St. -43.56 -338.00 -45.89

 

Rankings by Conference

 

AAC

27     Temple  19.89 80.28 17.26
33     East Carolina  10.75 147.25 14.51
44     Houston  8.67 48.67 8.20
53     Memphis  1.56 42.17 3.14
65     South Florida  4.50 -49.67 0.52
73     Navy  -3.89 -36.61 -4.42
82    Cincinnati  -3.67 -98.61 -7.36
83    UCF  -2.50 -126.75 -7.99
86    Tulsa  -11.17 -20.78 -8.48
91    SMU  -9.29 -93.75 -10.87
111   Tulane  -20.44 -125.11 -19.87
122   Connecticut  -26.50 -279.83 -31.62

 

ACC

5 Clemson  27.33 319.33 34.14
20 Miami (FL)  21.11 135.22 20.82
21 Duke  24.17 82.11 20.20
38 N.C. State  15.00 45.75 12.28
58 Syracuse  1.33 29.00 2.33
61 Virginia  0.61 27.17 1.76
63 Boston Coll.  -1.06 29.33 0.76
79 Florida St.  -9.39 -0.39 -6.28
84 Georgia Tech  -15.00 33.00 -8.35
85 Virginia Tech  -6.58 -79.92 -8.37
88 North Carolina  -16.67 44.50 -8.89
92 Pittsburgh  -14.67 -39.67 -11.76
93 Wake Forest  -13.11 -61.17 -11.79
94 Louisville  -7.72 -135.94 -11.93

 

B1G

2 Penn St.  41.88 156.38 35.71
8 Ohio St.  31.38 230.75 32.42
11 Michigan  26.17 217.63 28.29
12 Wisconsin  27.13 193.38 27.72
30 Michigan St.  17.06 92.11 15.96
32 Maryland  15.17 92.46 14.72
36 Iowa  13.06 101.33 13.76
37 Purdue  5.50 173.25 12.30
42 Minnesota  10.10 65.48 10.00
60 Indiana  -1.00 53.58 2.00
62 Nebraska  -5.56 105.56 1.56
67 Northwestern  -2.39 32.72 0.04
102 Rutgers  -13.71 -111.75 -14.71
106 Illinois  -10.33 -231.83 -18.45

 

XII-II

10 West Virginia  27.75 240.50 30.49
13 Oklahoma St.  26.50 146.28 24.96
18 Texas Tech  18.83 174.33 21.25
23 Oklahoma  18.92 125.25 18.85
24 Baylor  17.28 140.17 18.51
28 TCU  13.89 142.11 16.34
35 Texas  13.54 98.71 13.95
45 Iowa St.  11.17 11.56 8.02
47 Kansas  6.61 34.22 6.11
72 Kansas St.  -1.94 -47.00 -3.64

 

CUSA

15 North Texas  20.67 174.06 22.45
51 Marshall  7.17 -12.50 4.15
70 Southern Miss  -11.25 108.75 -2.08
77 Florida Atlantic  -6.33 -26.00 -5.52
80 Florida Intl.  -2.04 -105.21 -6.61
81 Louisiana Tech  -9.92 -9.33 -7.08
87 West. Kentucky  -11.33 -22.06 -8.66
104 Rice  -12.94 -144.83 -15.85
112 Middle Tenn. St.  -25.00 -75.92 -20.45
113 Old Dominion -18.00 -183.92 -21.17
116 UAB -28.25 -122.50 -24.94
120 UNC-Charlotte -33.89 -153.44 -30.24
123 UT-San Antonio -30.92 -238.63 -32.51
126 UTEP  -38.83 -267.42 -39.22

 

Indies

14 Notre Dame  27.38 130.00 24.73
31 Army  15.29 106.42 15.50
40 BYU  11.11 69.56 10.87
57 Liberty -0.89 59.83 2.39
127 Massachusetts -33.71 -339.71 -39.41
129 New Mexico St.  -42.13 -353.07 -45.69

 

MAC

41 Buffalo  12.94 43.67 10.81
52 Ball St.  2.89 26.56 3.25
55 East. Michigan  1.78 34.94 2.93
69 Ohio  3.50 -65.75 -0.94
74 W. Michigan  -9.22 33.44 -4.48
96 Cent. Michigan  -12.78 -81.50 -12.58
101 Toledo  -10.75 -141.25 -14.21
103 Akron  -11.50 -155.50 -15.42
107 Miami (OH)  -18.42 -127.17 -18.62
117 Northern Illinois  -25.75 -204.75 -27.37
118 Bowling Green  -29.89 -153.89 -27.60
124 Kent St.  -30.22 -314.22 -35.81

 

MWC

22 Boise St.  16.33 161.17 18.92
46 Fresno St.  4.58 79.33 7.01
56 Utah St.  9.50 -78.17 2.44
64 San Diego St.  3.06 -30.00 0.54
75 Hawaii  -1.63 -75.79 -4.86
97 Wyoming  -15.25 -48.75 -12.60
100 UNLV  -13.78 -91.72 -13.76
108 Air Force  -15.25 -178.50 -19.07
109 Colorado St.  -20.04 -123.21 -19.50
115 New Mexico  -14.75 -258.46 -22.72
125 Nevada  -35.50 -267.61 -37.01
128 San Jose St.  -37.75 -381.75 -44.20

 

PAC12

25 Stanford  23.72 38.50 17.73
26 Washington  18.22 106.17 17.44
29 Washington St.  9.83 188.78 15.97
39 USC  11.17 77.96 11.33
49 Arizona St.  6.17 25.17 5.37
54 California  2.25 29.50 2.97
68 Colorado  -0.92 6.33 -0.30
71 Oregon  1.17 -57.67 -2.10
76 Arizona  -10.83 43.50 -5.05
78 Utah  -7.00 -22.83 -5.80
89 UCLA  -11.17 -38.94 -9.39
114 Oregon St.  -25.11 -116.00 -22.52

 

SBC

3 Appalachian State 33.58 260.33 35.37
59 Arkansas St.  -1.06 54.83 2.03
95 Troy  -17.00 -24.83 -12.57
98 LA Monroe  -18.17 -12.67 -12.74
99 Georgia Southern -6.83 -174.42 -13.25
105 Coastal Carolina -16.17 -105.50 -16.04
110 South Alabama -17.38 -164.25 -19.77
119 LA Lafayette  -26.75 -226.50 -29.12
121 Georgia State -31.50 -192.33 -30.59
130 Texas St. -43.56 -338.00 -45.89

 

SEC

1 Alabama  50.25 267.50 46.84
4 Georgia  31.83 263.17 34.34
6 Kentucky  32.17 227.67 32.79
7 South Carolina  30.50 244.56 32.52
9 Texas A&M  29.22 245.72 31.73
16 LSU  25.50 108.50 22.41
17 Missouri  17.67 200.78 21.79
19 Mississippi St.  18.17 179.17 21.04
34 Florida  19.56 22.50 14.16
43 Auburn  15.00 -13.67 9.32
48 Mississippi  3.89 56.56 5.41
50 Tennessee  1.33 68.17 4.29
66 Vanderbilt  0.04 2.13 0.13
90 Arkansas  -19.28 49.22 -10.40

 

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