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DUSHEE Bowl Preview 2017-2018

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Duquesne Frog

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As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.

 

In the tables below, DO is DUSHEE Original, DR is DUSHEE Revised (or Extra Crispy), DA is the average of the two DUSHEE rankings, Sag is Sagarin, and SRS is the College Football Reference "Simple Rating System".  I pulled the Sagarin and SRS numbers before the Army-Navy game, so the numbers may not be an exact match for those checking my work.

 

TCU

 

Alamo

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Stanford  9-4 10.20 12.30 85.53 12.50 4.08
TCU  10-3 14.00 17.73 87.18 14.59 4.52

 

Here we are again, back in ol' Saint Tony, to face off against a Pac-12 runner up.  That last game wasn't very exciting, but this one will be if the computers and Vegas are right.

 

TCU is a unanimous, if small, favorite across the computational models and Vegas.  DUSHEE likes the Frogs a little more than Vegas, Sagarin a little less and the SRS pretty well nails the point spread:

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
TCU  3.80 TCU  5.43 TCU  4.61 TCU  2 TCU  1.65 TCU  2.1

 

New Years Six

 

Orange

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Wisconsin  12-1 24.45 28.65 93.09 22.65 2.73
Miami (FL)  10-2 9.04 12.25 83.72 15.97 5.62

 

Wisconsin is a unanimous favorite here as well, with all the computer models liking the Badgers more than Vegas.  DUSHEE likes Wiscy a LOT more than Vegas.  Vegas could be giving the Canes a home field advantage here.

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Wisconsin  15.40 Wisconsin  16.40 Wisconsin  15.90 Wisconsin  6.5 Wisconsin  9.37 Wisconsin  6.7

 

Peach

The Peach Bowl is the first of several games pairing teams with a disparate strength-of-schedule.  As one would expect, the DUSHEE Revised punishes the lower SoS much more than the Original.  Auburn had the 2nd most difficult schedule in college football this year (Maryland's ranked the toughest) while UCF's schedule ranked 85th.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Auburn  10-3 26.81 34.81 92.18 18.42 9.09
UCF  12-0 20.63 20.54 83.72 16.78 -1.61

 

Auburn is a unanimous favorite, but Vegas likes the Tigers/WarEagles more than any of the computer models other than DUSHEE Revised.  DUSHEE Average is right at the point spread.

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Auburn  6.18 Auburn  14.28 Auburn  10.23 Auburn  10 Auburn  8.46 Auburn  1.6

 

Fiesta

The Fiesta predictions follow the same pattern as the Orange, with all models liking the Nittany Lions more than Vegas.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Penn St.  10-2 25.00 27.67 96.58 21.57 1.85
Washington  10-2 17.99 19.55 92.24 17.56 -0.29

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Penn St.  7.01 Penn St.  8.12 Penn St.  7.57 Penn St.  3 Penn St.  4.34 Penn St.  4.0

 

Cotton

Again, all the computer models like Ohio State more than Vegas.  DUSHEE and Sagarin like the Buckeyes A LOT more.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Ohio St.  11-2 30.94 39.28 96.34 21.24 4.30
USC  11-2 11.97 15.10 83.98 14.19 2.91

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Ohio St.  18.96 Ohio St.  24.18 Ohio St.  21.57 Ohio St.  7 Ohio St.  12.36 Ohio St.  7.1

 

Rose

The models and Vegas are NOT unanimous for the two Semi-Final games.  For the Rose Bowl, the computers all like Georgia but Vegas (at least at the time I pulled the number) liked the Sooners.  None have the spread higher that 4-points.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Oklahoma  12-1 25.90 30.27 92.84 19.21 2.69
Georgia  12-1 27.31 33.93 95.34 22.70 5.72

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Georgia  1.41 Georgia  3.66 Georgia  2.54 Oklahoma  1 Georgia  2.50 Georgia  3.5

 

Sugar

The SRS likes Clemson, everybody else has the Tide as a small favorite.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Clemson  12-1 24.96 31.80 96.18 22.34 5.68
Alabama  11-1 29.27 32.25 98.90 18.95 2.79

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Alabama  4.31 Alabama  0.45 Alabama  2.38 Alabama  2 Alabama  2.72 Clemson  3.4

 

Games of That Already Happened

So I wasn't thinking and assumed I had another week before games started.  So here, I'll put the games that happened this weekend.  DUSHEE went against Vegas and most of the computer models and took Marshall, Boise, and Georgia State.  DUSHEE, along with everybody else, missed on the Middle Tennessee-Arkansas State matchup.  DUSHEE really liked Arkansas State, so while DUSHEE nailed a bunch of upsets, it also lost out on a high confidence pick in the Pick'em contest.

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Winner Margin
Marshall  3.35 Marshall  3.95 Marshall  3.65 Colorado St.  5.5 Colorado St.  2.32 Colorado St.  1.3 Marshall  3
Boise St.  3.50 Boise St.  1.86 Boise St.  2.68 Oregon  5 Oregon  3.38 Boise St.  2.4 Boise St.  10
Arkansas St.  10.30 Arkansas St.  10.62 Arkansas St.  10.46 Arkansas St.  3.5 Arkansas St.  6.59 Arkansas St.  5.3 Middle Tenn. St.  5
Georgia State 0.50 Georgia State 2.73 Georgia State 1.61 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  4.34 West. Kentucky  2.0 Georgia State 10
Troy  8.38 Troy  5.98 Troy  7.18 Troy  6 Troy  7.22 Troy  4.7 Troy  20

 

Other Games of Texas or Big XII-II Interest

 

Frisco

The Ponies are unanimous favorites and the all the computer models other than DUSHEE Original like the Ponies more than Vegas.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Louisiana Tech  6-6 -2.36 -6.06 60.75 -4.52 -5.09
SMU  7-5 1.73 1.45 68.57 3.46 1.41

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
SMU  4.08 SMU  7.51 SMU  5.79 SMU  5 SMU  7.82 SMU  8.0

 

Armed Forces

DUSHEE and Vegas are in close agreement, with the Aztecs about a touchdown favorite over Army.  Sagarin and SRS also like San Diego State, but not to cover.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Army  8-4 1.46 -0.27 68.78 2.26 -2.49
San Diego St.  10-2 8.97 7.03 74.05 6.49 -4.59

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
San Diego St.  7.51 San Diego St.  7.30 San Diego St.  7.40 San Diego St.  7 San Diego St.  5.27 San Diego St.  4.2

 

Hawaii

DUSHEE and SRS like the Bulldogs, Vegas and Sagarin like the Cougars.  Everybody likes Fresno against the spread.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Houston  7-4 1.59 0.19 72.31 3.63 -2.91
Fresno St.  9-4 5.15 4.18 71.85 4.22 -1.47

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Fresno St.  3.56 Fresno St.  3.99 Fresno St.  3.78 Houston  1.5 Houston  0.46 Fresno St.  0.6

 

Heart of Dallas

SRS likes the Mountaineers; everybody else likes the Utes.  Everybody likes WVU against the spread.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
West Virginia  7-5 3.86 6.49 75.71 6.11 3.63
Utah  6-6 6.17 7.80 77.70 5.13 1.55

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Utah  2.31 Utah  1.30 Utah  1.80 Utah  4.5 Utah  1.99 West Virginia  1.0

 

Cactus

DUSHEE has been down on the Fightin' Snyders all year long compared to everybody else.  DUSHEE likes the Bruins, everyone else likes the Wildcats.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Kansas St.  7-5 -2.01 -2.06 77.70 4.78 1.53
UCLA  6-6 0.52 3.29 74.55 2.86 4.06

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
UCLA  2.53 UCLA  5.35 UCLA  3.94 Kansas St.  3 Kansas St.  3.15 Kansas St.  1.9

 

Camping World

DUSHEE and Vegas like the Cowboys by almost a touchdown; Sagarin and SRS only like the Fightin' Mullets by about a point.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Virginia Tech  9-3 13.91 15.20 86.46 11.85 0.27
Oklahoma St.  9-3 19.64 21.71 87.67 12.52 0.14

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Oklahoma St.  5.73 Oklahoma St.  6.51 Oklahoma St.  6.12 Oklahoma St.  6.5 Oklahoma St.  1.21 Oklahoma St.  0.7

 

Texas

Everybody likes the Horns except Vegas.  Sagarin likes Texas by almost a TD, everybody else by a field goal or less.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Texas  6-6 6.10 7.67 81.11 7.27 0.96
Missouri  7-5 3.84 3.62 74.35 5.34 -0.52

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Texas  2.26 Texas  4.06 Texas  3.16 Missouri  1 Texas  6.76 Texas  1.9

 

Birmingham

This bowl pits the teams with the largest differential in strength-of-schedule which translates to a big difference in how the Original and Revised formulations of DUSHEE see this game.  Original DUSHEE has USF as a 9-point favorite; Revised DUSHEE likes Tech by under a point.  Sagarin agrees with Revised DUSHEE; Vegas, SRS, and Average DUSHEE are close.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Texas Tech  6-6 2.68 6.69 76.47 3.39 4.43
South Florida  9-2 11.70 6.04 75.52 7.30 -9.93

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
South Florida  9.03 Texas Tech  0.64 South Florida  4.19 South Florida  2.5 Texas Tech  0.95 South Florida  3.9

 

Belk

It's easy to forget, especially those of us out of state, that A&M is still in Texas.  They face off against Wake Forest in Charlotte where the computer models all like Wake more than Vegas, and Vegas has the Demon Deacons as a 2.5-point favorite.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Wake Forest  7-5 7.59 11.82 80.21 11.66 7.14
Texas A&M  7-5 2.38 3.52 75.20 3.05 3.29

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Wake Forest  5.21 Wake Forest  8.31 Wake Forest  6.76 Wake Forest  2.5 Wake Forest  5.01 Wake Forest  8.6

 

Liberty

The Cyclones face off against Memphis who is playing in their home stadium.  If Vegas views this as a home game for the Tigers, then the bettors view the teams as pretty well dead even, as does the SRS.  DUSHEE likes Memphis while Sagarin likes Iowa State.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Memphis  10-2 12.97 13.36 78.04 9.63 -0.67
Iowa St.  7-5 8.48 11.29 82.27 9.38 3.54

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Memphis  4.49 Memphis  2.07 Memphis  3.28 Memphis  3 Iowa St.  4.23 Memphis  0.3

 

All the Others

Here are the other games

    DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Boca Raton   Florida Atlantic  23.09 Florida Atlantic  23.35 Florida Atlantic  23.22 Florida Atlantic  17 Florida Atlantic  12.79 Florida Atlantic  10.5
Potato   Cent. Michigan  4.16 Cent. Michigan  4.70 Cent. Michigan  4.43 even 0 Wyoming  2.98 Wyoming  1.3
Bahamas   Ohio  10.35 Ohio  12.15 Ohio  11.25 Ohio  8 Ohio  13.73 Ohio  8.7
Dollar General   Toledo  5.92 Toledo  7.62 Toledo  6.77 Toledo  7 Toledo  6.98 Toledo  9.3
Gasparilla   Temple  2.43 Temple  6.44 Temple  4.44 Temple  8 Temple  8.11 Temple  3.0
Quick Lane   Northern Illinois  2.30 Duke  0.12 Northern Illinois  1.09 Duke  2.5 Duke  6.66 Duke  2.8
Independence   Florida St.  3.77 Florida St.  15.49 Florida St.  9.63 Florida St.  14 Florida St.  17.8 Florida St.  11.9
Military   Navy  7.82 Navy  7.36 Navy  7.59 Navy  3.5 Navy  1.72 Navy  3.3
Holiday   Washington St.  2.11 Washington St.  1.18 Washington St.  1.65 Washington St.  4.5 Washington St.  0.8 Michigan St.  3.6
Pinstripe   Iowa  4.66 Iowa  4.05 Iowa  4.36 Iowa  3 Iowa  5.76 Iowa  4.0
Foster Farms   Purdue  3.84 Purdue  5.97 Purdue  4.91 Arizona  4.5 Purdue  1.79 Purdue  5.6
Sun   N.C. State  6.44 N.C. State  9.05 N.C. State  7.75 N.C. State  5 N.C. State  5.4 N.C. State  5.5
Music City   Northwestern  14.26 Northwestern  16.61 Northwestern  15.43 Northwestern  8.5 Northwestern  14.65 Northwestern  10.5
Arizona   Utah St.  0.65 Utah St.  2.30 Utah St.  1.47 Utah St.  3 Utah St.  9.41 Utah St.  9.3
Citrus   Notre Dame  7.60 Notre Dame  10.32 Notre Dame  8.96 LSU  2.5 Notre Dame  6.23 Notre Dame  8.4
Outback   Michigan  12.42 Michigan  16.33 Michigan  14.37 Michigan  8.5 Michigan  7.71 Michigan  7.8
TaxSlayer   Mississippi St.  3.12 Mississippi St.  5.95 Mississippi St.  4.53 Louisville  6 Mississippi St.  1.36 Mississippi St.  0.4

 

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