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End of Regular Season DUSHEE (2017)

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Duquesne Frog

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Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.

 

The Frogs

 

At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as strongly as they started it, as can be seen in the week-to-week tallies (by rows, Opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score):

 

  @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay # OU
  10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 2.08 24.90 11.70 -4.42
  1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 97.75 -26.60 -9.60 59.83
  6.73 23.07 29.03   1.26 22.71 27.13 4.77 24.48 6.20 15.29 7.33 0.00

 

The Frogs' best five performances all occurred in the first 8 games of the season.  Arguably their worst four performances (WVU looks worse due to their late-season swoon after Grier got hurt) occurred in the last 6 games.  After showing some flashes of brilliance against SMU and Oklahoma State, the offense grew inconsistent and less threatening as the season progressed and while the defense was generally very impressive down the stretch, Oklahoma made them look very pedestrian twice.

 

But remember, the Frogs were 6-7 and ranked 50th a year ago.  Any of us would have taken 10-3 and a clear 2nd place finish in the conference this time last year.

 

The Frogs Final Opponent: Stanford

 

So the Trees went 9-4, also losing their conference championship rematch, but losing it in a slightly more impressive fashion (albeit against a weaker opponent).  Stanford sits at 26th in the DUSHEE rankings, but are only a spot behind the Frogs in point differential (TCU: 14.8, Stanford: 13.7).  The Frogs advantage is mostly in yardage differential (TCU: 84.1, Stanford: 22.3).  So Stanford has had to move the ball less to get its points, usually a good sign that Stanford has gotten more turnovers than the Frogs have, and that bears out -- Stanford has a turnover margin per game of 1.15 (6th in the country) versus TCU's 0.31 (49th).

 

Stanford's week-to-week numbers look like this:

 

# Rice @ USC @ SDSU  UCLA  ASU @ Utah  Ore   @ OreSt @ WSU  Wash  Cal  ND # USC
38.73 -10.58 9.00 22.91 11.64 7.90 50.70   -26.00 2.00 30.10 1.20 34.36 5.67
349.91 -212.83 -22.60 -63.18 79.55 53.10 297.30   -201.20 -133.70 216.40 5.10 1.36 -79.58
43.04 -17.53 4.89 12.16 11.67 7.88 48.43   -27.23 -5.25 30.71 1.05 22.98 -0.14

 

In this, you see that Stanford has been really very inconsistent (see last week's blog post for more discussion of this); in fact the Trees are among the 10 most inconsistent teams in college football this season..  Against Rice, Oregon, and Washington, Stanford played like world-beaters, all better performances than any single TCU game.  Against USC (both times, but particularly the first time), Oregon State, and Washington State, the Cardinal were between below average and pretty terrible, far worse than TCU has looked in any one game this year.  Stanford beat Oregon State by 1 and were outgained by 42 (coming off of a bye week); Oregon beat Oregon State by 59 and outgained them by 366.  Oregon State is Kansas.

 

So if we put both teams in the ol' Monte Carlo simulator, the Frogs win 56% of the time by an average of about 3.4 points.

 

Performances of the (last two) Week(s)

Top 3

43.32 Georgia vs. Auburn (Point Margin: 21, Yardage Margin: 162)

37.47 Clemson vs. Miami (PM: 35, YM: 117)

36.60 Oklahoma vs. TCU (PM: 24, YM: 144)

 

Bottom 3

-40.61 Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian St. (PM: -49, YM: -239)

-36.53 Louisiana-Monroe at Florida St. (PM: -32, YM: -204)

-23.47 UMass at FIU (PM: -18, YM: -134)

 

Performances of the Year

 

Since we're at the end of the regular season, I thought this would be a good time to go back and look at the games that received the highest and lowest DUSHEE scores during the season.  The best and worst performances were both owned by Roy Moore's home state.  Three of the ten worst performances of the year were by the San Jose (effing) State Spartans.

 

Top 10

63.42 Alabama (Week 4) at Vanderbilt 59-0

61.96 Alabama (Week 5) vs. Mississippi 66-3

57.22 Iowa (Week 10) vs. Ohio State 55-24

56.79 Ohio State (Week 11) vs. Michigan St. 48-3 

54.46 Auburn (Week 11) vs. Georgia 40-17

48.82 Penn St. (Week 3) vs. Georgia St. 56-0

48.43 Stanford (Week 7) vs. Oregon 49-7

47.73 Auburn (Week 5) vs. Mississippi St. 49-10

47.52 Florida Atlantic (Week 8) at North Texas 69-31

47.46 Penn St. (Week 1) vs. Akron 52-0

 

Bottom 10

-72.39 South Alabama (Week 12) at Georgia Southern 0-52

-61.78 San Jose St. (Week 4) vs. Utah St. 10-61

-57.17 San Jose St. (Week 2) at Texas 0-56

-56.17 Oregon St. (Week 13) at Oregon 10-69

-54.75 Rice (Week 1) vs. Stanford 7-62

-54.53 Cincinnati (Week 12) at East Carolina 20-48

-54.43 UNC-Charlotte (Week 2) at Kansas St. 7-55

-51.58 New Mexico (Week 11) at Texas A&M 14-55

-51.58 Coastal Carolina (Week 9) vs. Texas St. 7-27

-49.60 San Jose St. (Week 11) at Nevada 14-59

 

Conference Rankings

 

I recognize that this will be an unpopular ranking, but if you average up the DUSHEE scores for all the teams in each conference, the Big 10 comes out as the top conference, edging out the ACC.  The Big 12 started the year strong, sitting at one or two through most of the season, but fell to 4th by the end of the season as other conferences added more non-conference games.  The AAC is about where the Mountain West was when the Frogs were in the conference, clearly a notch or two below the "Power 5" but a notch or two above the other "Group of 5" conferences.  Our old home is now closer to the MAC and Sun Belt than they are to the American Athletic Conference, let alone the big boys.

 

B10 5.72
ACC 5.51
SEC 5.23
B12 4.73
P12 3.48
AAC -0.69
MWC -5.84
MAC -7.29
CUSA -7.38
SBC -8.11

 

Final Regular Season Rankings

 

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 0 0.36
2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 1 -0.13
3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 1 1.47
4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 -2 -2.64
5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 0 0.48
6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 0 -0.29
7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 1 1.09
8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 -1 -0.57
9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 0 -0.29
10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 0 -0.27
11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 0 -0.45
12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 0 -0.23
13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 0 -0.51
14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 0 -1.27
15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 0 -0.25
16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 0 0.19
17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 9 1.06
18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 4 0.34
19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 -2 -0.37
20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 -2 -0.23
21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 2 0.43
22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 -1 -0.19
23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 -3 -0.58
24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 -5 -0.61
25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 0 -0.30
26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 -2 -0.85
27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 1 -0.48
28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 1 -0.09
29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 -2 -1.45
30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 3 0.41
31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 -1 -0.25
32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 -1 -0.26
33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 -1 -0.42
34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 2 0.79
35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 -1 -0.10
36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 -1 -0.25
37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 4 0.37
38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 -1 -0.17
39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 -1 -0.29
40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 0 -0.13
41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 -2 -0.28
42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 2 1.49
43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 -1 -0.16
44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 -1 -0.05
45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 2 0.06
46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 -1 -0.30
47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 -1 -0.23
48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 13 3.02
49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 10 1.87
50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 2 0.32
51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 -2 -0.21
52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 -4 -0.40
53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 0 0.01
54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 -3 -0.30
55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 0 -0.04
56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 -6 -0.68
57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 -3 -0.94
58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 0 -0.04
59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 -2 -0.21
60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 -4 -0.50
61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 -1 -0.29
62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 1 0.01
63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 1 -0.04
64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 -2 -0.43
65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 0 0.08
66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 1 -0.36
67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 2 -0.01
68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 0 -0.43
69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 -3 -1.15
70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 1 0.15
71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 -1 -0.31
72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 1 -0.07
73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 3 0.05
74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 0 -0.01
75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 -3 -0.40
76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 1 0.06
77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 -2 -0.14
78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 0 -0.67
79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 2 0.35
80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 -1 -0.25
81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 -1 -0.40
82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 11 2.32
83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 -1 0.03
84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 1 0.30
85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 -1 -0.07
86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 -3 -0.29
87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 -1 -0.08
88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 0 0.00
89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 1 0.23
90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 -1 0.00
91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 -4 -1.10
92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 -1 -0.40
93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 -1 -0.14
94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 1 -0.03
95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 -1 -0.31
96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 1 -0.05
97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 2 -0.09
98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 0 -0.51
99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 5 0.36
100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 0 -0.39
101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 -5 -2.52
102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 1 0.00
103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 -2 -0.55
104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 1 -0.36
105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 -3 -0.53
106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 3 1.43
107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 0 0.25
108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 3 0.99
109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 -3 -1.50
110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 -2 -0.17
111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 -1 -0.03
112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88 0 -0.18
113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 0 0.00
114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 0 0.00
115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 0 -0.37
116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 0 -0.33
117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 0 -0.27
118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 0 -0.30
119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 1 -0.06
120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 -1 -0.12
121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 1 -0.06
122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 -1 -1.99
123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 0 -0.14
124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 0 -0.13
125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 1 0.34
126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 -1 0.04
127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 0 -0.27
128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 0 0.02
129 UTEP  -25.84 -197.46 -26.95 0 -0.13
130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 0 -0.10

 

By Conference

AAC

9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63
16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97
20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70
43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27
57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73
59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59
68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89
83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45
100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65
110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28
116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47
118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42

ACC

7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96
15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91
21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64
29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04
30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99
34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59
37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51
39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18
49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47
58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64
66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43
73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49
75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55
104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34

B1G

1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94
6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00
8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45
19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80
24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17
28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36
32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77
36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58
52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98
80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52
81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81
103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97
115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14
120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90
10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64
14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00
33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48
41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10
46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86
54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68
71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01
95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39
127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94

CUSA

17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03
50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10
62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20
64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30
69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90
72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36
82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32
84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51
94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29
99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57
119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42
124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10
125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59
129 UTEP  -25.85 -197.45 -26.95

Indies

11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79
60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46
91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53
105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35

MAC

27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65
45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94
51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06
67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59
70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92
74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51
76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57
87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32
107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06
113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62
126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81
128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80

MWC

25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72
31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97
44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15
63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25
85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82
86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92
93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73
96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99
97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89
111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54
117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16
130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67

P12

12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99
18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97
22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47
26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20
35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21
40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17
53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74
55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55
61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52
77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66
90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63
123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74

SBC

38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48
42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79
48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73
89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56
98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07
101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79
106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97
108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62
109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09
114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88
121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66
122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72

SEC

2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27
3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31
4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81
13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76
23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19
47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84
56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38
65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62
78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39
79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44
88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49
92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66
102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88
112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88

 

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