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DUSHEE Week 12 (2017)

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Duquesne Frog

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DUSHEE still loves the Ojai-uh Bucks and has now moved three SEC teams into slots 2-4.  A playoff final 4 that would be enough to make college football fans in every other part of the country outside the southeast and Ohio vomit.

 

The Frogs slid yet another spot to 14th.  The Frogs slow trickle down through the standings seems to be due to a general drop in the performance of the Big XII-II as a whole as the conference dropped from the 2nd spot to the 4th spot, passed by both the ACC and SEC this week.  DUSHEE has rewarded those conferences for blowing out their patsies this week (although again, remember that Mercer and the Citadel are ignored in the ranking).

 

It was a big week for the non-Power 5 schools (what is the euphemism ESPN has come up with for them?) as Boise (19), Memphis (21), and Florida Atlantic (22) all found their way into the top 25.  All three of those schools are out of the top 25 in the DUSHEE Extra Crispy rankings (29, 30, and 38, respectively) which punish poor schedule strength more (86th, 78th, and 85th, respectively).  The Frogs, BTW, are 12th in the Extra Crispy poll (28th SOS). 

 

Frogs Week-to-Week

 

It was a middlin' performance for the Frogs; the point differential among the Frogs' better numbers of the year, but for the second time this season, TCU went negative in yardage differential (WVU the other instance). In general, the Frogs have not done well in yardage differential; on average, teams have a yardage differential to point differential ratio of 6.7 yards for every point.  The Frogs have only exceeded that average three times: Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  The Frogs average YD:PD ratio is 4.4.  What this means varies depending on interpretation -- either the Frogs have been very efficient or the Frogs have been a little lucky.  The scores should have been closer in a lot of the Frogs' games than they were based on how well the offense moved the ball relative to how well the defense kept the opposing offense from moving the ball. 

 

  @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech
  9.11 23.22 29.60   12.33 26.44 16.89 2.22 28.10 0.90 24.56
  18.67 155.22 136.10   -66.89 115.89 373.89 71.11 142.00 98.80 -27.22
  7.00 23.16 26.47   4.91 23.36 29.76 5.00 25.76 5.49 15.02

 

Frogs Next Opponent Week-to-Week: Rapey Bears

 

Despite their record, Baylor has only been truly awful three times this season: Duke, Oklahoma State, and Texas.  But they've only played like an above average team once, against Oklahoma.  In fact they played Oklahoma better than the Frogs did.  In the Bears other six games, they have been squarely average.

 

The worst TCU performance this year would have beaten any individual Baylor performance other than Oklahoma.  Using DUSHEE, and running 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations, TCU beats Baylor 94% of the time and has the Frogs as a 27 point favorite.  This game should be no problem.  Hopefully I do not regret those words on Friday.

 

   UTSA @ Duke  OU @ KSU   @ OkSt  WVU  Tex @ Kan # Ttech  ISU
  -1.38 -15.67 11.90 -10.22   -32.00 2.33 -24.70 1.33 -17.67 -1.11
  -13.50 -132.89 102.10 -48.56   -223.60 50.89 -141.80 21.67 215.00 -56.67
  -1.58 -17.02 12.99 -9.22   -32.40 4.07 -23.48 1.96 -1.14 -3.55

 

Conference Rankings

 

B10 6.57
SEC 6.28
ACC 5.78
B12 5.52
P12 3.81
AAC -0.58
MWC -5.94
MAC -7.84
CUSA -8.25
SBC -8.74

 

Top 3 Performances

 

49.71 - Louisville vs. Syracuse (46 Point Margin, 392 Yardage Margin)

44.93 - Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama (52 PM, 388 YM)

39.22 - Northwestern vs. Minnesota (39 PM, 181 YM)

 

Bottom 3 Performances

 

-77.15 - South Alabama at Georgia Southern (-52 PM, -388 YM)

-52.10 - Cincinnati at East Carolina (-28 PM, -252 YM)

-46.13 - Rutgers at Indiana (-41 PM, -313 YM)

 

Overall Rankings

 

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Ohio St.  27.50 272.25 31.81 0 0.33
2 Alabama  29.33 233.84 31.13 0 0.07
3 Auburn  27.24 210.87 28.60 0 1.13
4 Georgia  25.47 165.84 25.19 2 0.88
5 Oklahoma  21.15 217.93 24.88 -1 -0.84
6 Penn St.  26.15 138.81 24.31 -1 -1.07
7 Wisconsin  23.73 169.84 24.23 2 1.39
8 Clemson  21.26 188.43 23.50 -1 -0.46
9 Notre Dame  21.55 127.79 20.69 1 -1.33
10 UCF  21.98 121.05 20.65 1 -1.25
11 Oklahoma St.  17.54 172.23 20.22 -3 -2.75
12 Mississippi St.  16.16 129.77 17.20 0 -1.83
13 Washington  17.60 101.28 16.75 1 -0.67
14 TCU  17.34 101.76 16.59 -1 -0.94
15 Virginia Tech  15.84 99.77 15.49 0 -1.44
16 Miami (FL)  17.98 50.12 14.47 0 -2.28
17 Washington St.  9.67 137.48 13.25 2 -0.28
18 USC  12.33 94.10 12.88 -1 -2.11
19 Boise St.  12.51 73.54 11.98 7 1.49
20 Michigan  9.72 109.40 11.89 0 -0.29
21 Memphis  13.07 50.14 11.20 7 1.22
22 Florida Atlantic  13.94 37.12 11.13 10 2.12
23 South Florida  7.91 92.06 9.83 -2 -1.83
24 Louisville  5.22 127.23 9.77 18 4.70
25 Stanford  12.22 32.10 9.73 2 -0.55
26 LSU  7.57 94.71 9.73 -3 -1.23
27 Iowa  14.03 4.20 9.56 -5 -1.80
28 N.C. State  7.29 90.66 9.35 1 -0.34
29 Iowa St.  11.74 29.74 9.30 -5 -1.62
30 Michigan St.  6.65 96.21 9.20 -5 -1.62
31 Georgia Tech  5.03 112.86 8.94 -13 -4.63
32 San Diego St.  7.72 66.81 8.45 -1 -0.59
33 Wake Forest  9.82 38.32 8.45 -3 -1.01
34 Toledo  8.29 52.77 8.14 2 0.92
35 Northwestern  9.67 28.70 7.87 9 2.93
36 Texas  8.08 48.23 7.77 2 1.30
37 Purdue  8.35 38.35 7.47 -4 -0.48
38 Texas A&M  6.59 53.11 7.02 -1 0.51
39 Navy  5.64 51.25 6.30 0 0.03
40 West Virginia  5.28 49.15 5.95 -6 -1.64
41 Northern Illinois  5.13 27.98 4.80 4 0.82
42 Oregon  2.58 61.80 4.78 12 3.16
43 Boston Coll.  6.32 7.92 4.61 -3 -0.89
44 Missouri  5.58 15.44 4.48 2 0.61
45 Utah  3.33 42.75 4.33 5 1.31
46 Indiana  1.75 53.65 3.82 14 3.10
47 Arizona  4.29 15.81 3.64 -12 -3.62
48 Fresno St.  3.17 26.18 3.41 0 -0.08
49 Arkansas St.  3.68 15.15 3.20 7 1.92
50 Ohio  4.85 -6.17 2.93 -9 -2.27
51 SMU  4.60 -3.42 2.89 -8 -2.14
52 Troy  2.90 18.73 2.86 1 1.06
53 Texas Tech  1.13 32.19 2.35 -4 -0.74
54 Marshall  2.05 9.21 1.82 -2 -0.39
55 Florida St.  1.04 20.12 1.69 0 0.24
56 Army  1.31 13.29 1.53 5 0.81
57 UT-San Antonio -1.76 51.75 1.39 6 1.64
58 Arizona St.  1.50 4.64 1.23 -7 -1.10
59 Duke  0.52 9.23 0.80 13 3.62
60 Colorado St.  -0.60 17.68 0.48 2 -0.08
61 UCLA  0.69 0.22 0.47 3 0.77
62 East. Michigan  0.39 3.79 0.45 -3 -0.52
63 South Carolina  3.07 -38.64 0.13 2 0.65
64 Houston  1.20 -14.29 0.09 -7 -1.15
65 Southern Miss  -3.89 45.74 -0.33 10 2.78
66 Nebraska  -1.17 5.43 -0.51 0 0.58
67 North Texas  -1.63 0.57 -1.06 2 1.07
68 Syracuse  -3.45 25.04 -1.06 -21 -4.73
69 Appalachian State -1.20 -8.11 -1.20 -2 0.64
70 W. Michigan  0.57 -35.65 -1.38 6 1.90
71 Temple  -3.68 17.65 -1.58 -1 1.02
72 California  -0.50 -28.64 -1.75 -4 0.36
73 Kansas St.  2.44 -75.71 -2.12 4 1.43
74 Minnesota  -0.93 -32.16 -2.21 -16 -3.31
75 Virginia  -4.21 10.11 -2.31 7 2.16
76 Florida  -2.16 -24.23 -2.64 17 3.74
77 Mississippi  -4.20 -4.58 -3.03 -4 -0.15
78 Colorado  -1.71 -43.34 -3.28 -4 -0.25
79 Pittsburgh  -3.88 -18.54 -3.51 2 0.74
80 Buffalo  -3.59 -31.26 -3.94 -1 0.09
81 Wyoming  0.64 -94.57 -4.25 6 1.09
82 Kentucky  -0.76 -76.11 -4.27 2 0.40
83 Miami (OH)  -6.57 -3.30 -4.54 2 0.26
84 Air Force  -6.09 -10.41 -4.57 -6 -0.87
85 Utah St.  -1.48 -77.21 -4.81 14 3.77
86 Louisiana Tech  -4.92 -31.59 -4.84 -3 -0.18
87 Cent. Michigan  -4.14 -42.49 -4.86 -16 -2.06
88 Tulane  -2.94 -59.30 -4.90 3 1.22
89 Arkansas  -6.29 -21.20 -5.24 0 0.67
90 Massachusetts -8.58 -3.70 -5.91 -2 -0.22
91 Maryland  -5.96 -52.35 -6.56 1 -0.30
92 LA Monroe  -6.04 -56.77 -6.84 5 0.61
93 Baylor  -8.72 -22.74 -6.94 2 0.19
94 New Mexico St.  -10.31 -15.79 -7.65 2 -0.49
95 UAB -7.08 -59.36 -7.66 -9 -2.62
96 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.02 -35.96 -7.79 -6 -1.83
97 Georgia State -9.06 -38.09 -7.93 1 -0.20
98 UNLV  -7.95 -60.23 -8.28 2 0.68
99 Tulsa  -5.66 -100.29 -8.74 9 3.11
100 Florida Intl.  -8.35 -67.96 -8.93 -6 -2.43
101 Tennessee  -7.23 -83.28 -8.94 2 0.75
102 North Carolina  -8.17 -78.33 -9.32 -1 0.29
103 West. Kentucky  -10.46 -53.91 -9.64 4 2.02
104 Nevada  -8.07 -89.22 -9.79 1 1.21
105 Cincinnati  -11.87 -45.99 -10.19 -25 -6.07
106 Akron  -6.18 -146.86 -11.39 8 3.19
107 BYU  -10.80 -84.97 -11.41 6 2.89
108 Vanderbilt  -10.11 -95.36 -11.46 -2 -0.23
109 New Mexico  -13.61 -56.55 -11.87 1 0.93
110 Georgia Southern -12.62 -84.90 -12.61 13 8.07
111 Idaho  -12.81 -84.19 -12.71 -2 -0.45
112 Coastal Carolina -13.11 -85.40 -12.97 0 0.24
113 Illinois  -12.83 -113.10 -14.15 -2 -1.02
114 Rutgers  -12.08 -136.50 -14.81 -10 -4.11
115 East Carolina  -16.24 -94.67 -15.51 6 3.37
116 South Alabama -14.82 -122.37 -15.94 -14 -6.25
117 Old Dominion -15.65 -115.42 -16.15 0 -0.64
118 LA Lafayette  -15.41 -119.77 -16.20 4 3.40
119 Oregon St.  -17.27 -97.24 -16.33 -3 -0.89
120 Texas St. -17.71 -103.73 -16.94 -2 0.19
121 Hawaii  -19.02 -86.17 -16.94 -6 -1.87
122 Connecticut  -15.95 -129.13 -17.02 -3 0.39
123 Bowling Green  -15.78 -151.23 -18.00 -3 0.41
124 Rice  -23.87 -124.49 -22.07 1 0.70
125 Kansas  -24.40 -131.62 -22.78 1 0.13
126 UNC-Charlotte -22.64 -169.54 -23.48 -2 -2.79
127 Kent St.  -24.61 -149.76 -23.82 0 1.84
128 Ball St.  -28.51 -150.13 -26.43 0 0.49
129 UTEP  -26.70 -204.12 -27.90 0 0.78
130 San Jose St.  -34.44 -244.13 -35.04 0 1.08

 

By Conference

 

AAC

10 UCF  21.98 121.05 20.65
21 Memphis  13.07 50.14 11.20
23 South Florida  7.91 92.06 9.83
39 Navy  5.64 51.25 6.30
51 SMU  4.60 -3.42 2.89
64 Houston  1.20 -14.29 0.09
71 Temple  -3.68 17.65 -1.58
88 Tulane  -2.94 -59.30 -4.90
99 Tulsa  -5.66 -100.29 -8.74
105 Cincinnati  -11.87 -45.99 -10.19
115 East Carolina  -16.24 -94.67 -15.51
122 Connecticut  -15.95 -129.13 -17.02

ACC

8 Clemson  21.26 188.43 23.50
15 Virginia Tech  15.84 99.77 15.49
16 Miami (FL)  17.98 50.12 14.47
24 Louisville  5.22 127.23 9.77
28 N.C. State  7.29 90.66 9.35
31 Georgia Tech  5.03 112.86 8.94
33 Wake Forest  9.82 38.32 8.45
43 Boston Coll.  6.32 7.92 4.61
55 Florida St.  1.04 20.12 1.69
59 Duke  0.52 9.23 0.80
68 Syracuse  -3.45 25.04 -1.06
75 Virginia  -4.21 10.11 -2.31
79 Pittsburgh  -3.88 -18.54 -3.51
102 North Carolina  -8.17 -78.33 -9.32

B1G

1 Ohio St.  27.50 272.25 31.81
6 Penn St.  26.15 138.81 24.31
7 Wisconsin  23.73 169.84 24.23
20 Michigan  9.72 109.40 11.89
27 Iowa  14.03 4.20 9.56
30 Michigan St.  6.65 96.21 9.20
35 Northwestern  9.67 28.70 7.87
37 Purdue  8.35 38.35 7.47
46 Indiana  1.75 53.65 3.82
66 Nebraska  -1.17 5.43 -0.51
74 Minnesota  -0.93 -32.16 -2.21
91 Maryland  -5.96 -52.35 -6.56
113 Illinois  -12.83 -113.10 -14.15
114 Rutgers  -12.08 -136.50 -14.81

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  21.15 217.93 24.88
11 Oklahoma St.  17.54 172.23 20.22
14 TCU  17.34 101.76 16.59
29 Iowa St.  11.74 29.74 9.30
36 Texas  8.08 48.23 7.77
40 West Virginia  5.28 49.15 5.95
53 Texas Tech  1.13 32.19 2.35
73 Kansas St.  2.44 -75.71 -2.12
93 Baylor  -8.72 -22.74 -6.94
125 Kansas  -24.40 -131.62 -22.78

CUSA

 

 


 

 

22 Florida Atlantic  13.94 37.12 11.13
54 Marshall  2.05 9.21 1.82
57 UT-San Antonio -1.76 51.75 1.39
65 Southern Miss  -3.89 45.74 -0.33
67 North Texas  -1.63 0.57 -1.06
86 Louisiana Tech  -4.92 -31.59 -4.84
95 UAB -7.08 -59.36 -7.66
96 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.02 -35.96 -7.79
100 Florida Intl.  -8.35 -67.96 -8.93
103 West. Kentucky  -10.46 -53.91 -9.64
117 Old Dominion -15.65 -115.42 -16.15
124 Rice  -23.87 -124.49 -22.07
126 UNC-Charlotte -22.64 -169.54 -23.48
129 UTEP  -26.70 -204.12 -27.90

Indies

9 Notre Dame  21.55 127.79 20.69
56 Army  1.31 13.29 1.53
90 Massachusetts -8.58 -3.70 -5.91
107 BYU  -10.80 -84.97 -11.41

MAC

34 Toledo  8.29 52.77 8.14
41 Northern Illinois  5.13 27.98 4.80
50 Ohio  4.85 -6.17 2.93
62 East. Michigan  0.39 3.79 0.45
70 W. Michigan  0.57 -35.65 -1.38
80 Buffalo  -3.59 -31.26 -3.94
83 Miami (OH)  -6.57 -3.30 -4.54
87 Cent. Michigan  -4.14 -42.49 -4.86
106 Akron  -6.18 -146.86 -11.39
123 Bowling Green  -15.78 -151.23 -18.00
127 Kent St.  -24.61 -149.76 -23.82
128 Ball St.  -28.51 -150.13 -26.43

MWC

19 Boise St.  12.51 73.54 11.98
32 San Diego St.  7.72 66.81 8.45
48 Fresno St.  3.17 26.18 3.41
60 Colorado St.  -0.60 17.68 0.48
81 Wyoming  0.64 -94.57 -4.25
84 Air Force  -6.09 -10.41 -4.57
85 Utah St.  -1.48 -77.21 -4.81
98 UNLV  -7.95 -60.23 -8.28
104 Nevada  -8.07 -89.22 -9.79
109 New Mexico  -13.61 -56.55 -11.87
121 Hawaii  -19.02 -86.17 -16.94
130 San Jose St.  -34.44 -244.13 -35.04

P12

13 Washington  17.60 101.28 16.75
17 Washington St.  9.67 137.48 13.25
18 USC  12.33 94.10 12.88
25 Stanford  12.22 32.10 9.73
42 Oregon  2.58 61.80 4.78
45 Utah  3.33 42.75 4.33
47 Arizona  4.29 15.81 3.64
58 Arizona St.  1.50 4.64 1.23
61 UCLA  0.69 0.22 0.47
72 California  -0.50 -28.64 -1.75
78 Colorado  -1.71 -43.34 -3.28
119 Oregon St.  -17.27 -97.24 -16.33

SBC

49 Arkansas St.  3.68 15.15 3.20
52 Troy  2.90 18.73 2.86
69 Appalachian State -1.20 -8.11 -1.20
92 LA Monroe  -6.04 -56.77 -6.84
94 New Mexico St.  -10.31 -15.79 -7.65
97 Georgia State -9.06 -38.09 -7.93
110 Georgia Southern -12.62 -84.90 -12.61
111 Idaho  -12.81 -84.19 -12.71
112 Coastal Carolina -13.11 -85.40 -12.97
116 South Alabama -14.82 -122.37 -15.94
118 LA Lafayette  -15.41 -119.77 -16.20
120 Texas St. -17.71 -103.73 -16.94

SEC

2 Alabama  29.33 233.84 31.13
3 Auburn  27.24 210.87 28.60
4 Georgia  25.47 165.84 25.19
12 Mississippi St.  16.16 129.77 17.20
26 LSU  7.57 94.71 9.73
38 Texas A&M  6.59 53.11 7.02
44 Missouri  5.58 15.44 4.48
63 South Carolina  3.07 -38.64 0.13
76 Florida  -2.16 -24.23 -2.64
77 Mississippi  -4.20 -4.58 -3.03
82 Kentucky  -0.76 -76.11 -4.27
89 Arkansas  -6.29 -21.20 -5.24
101 Tennessee  -7.23 -83.28 -8.94
108 Vanderbilt  -10.11 -95.36 -11.46

 

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Below Oklahoma State???!!!!  Man, Dushee needs to change its formula to help the Frogs!

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