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The Inaugural 2017 DUSHEE Rankings

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Duquesne Frog

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If you just want the rankings and don't care about my jibber-jabber, scroll down to the bottom of this post.  But I encourage you to read the jibber-jabber to allow me to explain some of the crazy stuff you see in the rankings.  And as an aside, the addition of Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and the rising of the UAB Phoenixes/Blazers from the ashes has raised the number of FBS teams to 130 for this season.

 

I'm always quite apprehensive putting out DUSHEE, particularly these early ones when some teams still only have two games against FBS competition.  This year, I'm particularly apprehensive, because DUSHEE has come up with some rankings that ... well, shall we say ... go against conventional wisdom.  But rather than shirk from the mocking and cower from the slings and arrows of outrageous slander, I'm going to use this as an opportunity to elucidate the pitfalls of such analyses and look at some of the oddities that appear in the inaugural DUSHEE for 2017.

 

To get the big one out of the way early, DUSHEE is not as down on Baylor as the rest of the college football world.  In fact, the initial DUSHEE (original formulation, because extra-crispy DUSHEE is even higher on the Rapey Bears) has the winless Bears ranked .... 24th.  Yes, DUSHEE has Baylor as a top 25 team.  So let's look at why.

 

First, as far as DUSHEE is concerned, the loss to Liberty never happened.  Generally that's not a big deal because most teams beat their patsies by huge margins and they can be ignored.  When an FBS team loses to their patsy, that's a big piece of information that gets ignored, because I have a hard enough time keeping track of FBS teams without doubling the population of teams.

 

Outside of Liberty, DUSHEE has Baylor's strength of schedule is the 5th hardest in FBS (TCU's schedule ranks 4th, BTW).  UTSA is ranked 37th (based on 2 games, a 17-10 win against Baylor and a 44-14 win against Texas State), Duke is 25th, OU is 8th, and K-State is 60th.  Baylor in particular, gets a lot of mileage in DUSHEE for their 8-point loss to Oklahoma.

 

Opp:  UTSA @ Duke  OU @ KSU
PD: 23.00 -11.00 27.33 7.50
YD: 253.00 -25.67 223.67 197.00
Score: 27.99 -8.62 29.41 14.86

 

So right now, Baylor's point differential against UTSA (which is inflated due to the fact that UTSA's only other FCS game was a blowout win against Texas State .... PD = -7+30 = 23) and Oklahoma are quite high, despite being losses.  Baylor played UTSA and OU closer than their opponents did.  Baylor played OU closer than Ohio State did.

 

Of course, one would expect Baylor's point differential against UTSA to go down as UTSA plays more teams and presumably doesn't blow out every other team on their schedule.  But right now, Baylor's score against UTSA is based solely on a comparison with Texas State.  And since Baylor played UTSA significantly better than Texas State did, they get a high point differential.

 

Which is why you should be wary of any data-based ranking system when the data is scarce.  If Baylor is still getting a DUSHEE score of 28 points for the UTSA game by week 10, then UTSA will have destroyed the rest of Conference USA and is probably in the top 25.  But I suspect that the UTSA score will drop significantly by then.  That said, UTSA doesn't exactly have a murderer's row of opponents the rest of the way out, which is why I created the extra crispy DUSHEE.  But that version of DUSHEE rewards Baylor even more for their tough schedule than original recipe.

 

Which leads us to Team That Will Cause Frog Horn Incredulity #2: Ohio State.  DUSHEE has the Ohio State team that got blown out at home to Oklahoma as the #1 team in the country.  Barely, but they are not quite 0.4 points above Alabama and a point above Clemson.  And the opponent that is putting Ohio State on top?  UNLV, the team that lost to Howard.

 

The Ohio State-UNLV situation is a similar one to the Baylor-UTSA situation above.  Ohio State beat UNLV by 33 points and outgained the Runnin' Rebels by 404 yards.  That is being compared to UNLV's other two FBS games, a 28-point win over Idaho and a 28-point win over San Jose State.  That makes Ohio State's point differential over UNLV 61 points (33+28).  And as with the Baylor-Liberty tilt, DUSHEE doesn't know UNLV-Howard was ever played.  When you blow out a team that has only blown out other teams, you get a really high point differential.  UNLV isn't going to blow out the rest of their schedule.  That number will come down and Ohio State's ranking will come down.

 

And while there are a number of other teams that will doubtlessly make you question my sanity, the final team at which will take a look is Central Florida.  The inaugural DUSHEE has UCF as the 4th ranked team in the country.  And while I don't think UCF is actually the 4th best team in the country, UCF has been impressive and under the radar.  So far, UCF has blown out Florida International 61-17, Maryland (the team that beat Texas in Austin) 38-10, and Memphis (who took down Ole Miss) 40-13.  None of those opponents are world beaters by any stretch, but Maryland and Memphis aren't total patsies either and UCF pounded them both.  I have no doubt that the Knights are being over-rated here, but I do think this is a team that is currently under the radar nationally that is probably a lot better than pollsters are giving them credit.

 

The Frogs enter the rankings at number 6 and DUSHEE has the Big 12 barely ahead of the ACC and Big 10 as the best conference (on average) in FBS.  Note that the letters 'SEC' were nowhere in that sentence.  For the first time that I can remember since doing this DUSHEE experiment, the SEC not only isn't the top-ranked conference, they are the LOWEST ranked conference of the "Power 5."  And since the vast majority of OOC games are in the books, I wouldn't expect the SEC to be able to make up enough ground to challenge the top conferences by the season's end.  This is arguably a historic down year for the conference.  I'm sure we will be getting a bunch of stories about the inferiority of the SEC on ESPN over the next few weeks. [/sarcasm]

 

Conference Rankings

B12 13.44
ACC 13.43
B10 13.28
P12 7.99
SEC 5.28
AAC 0.17
MWC -8.01
MAC -15.68
SBC -15.75
CUSA -15.85

 

Rank by Team

Rank-Team-PD-YD-DUSHEE Score

1 Ohio St.  39.20 324.60 42.37
2 Alabama  41.53 285.93 41.99
3 Clemson  36.50 339.83 41.34
4 UCF  38.83 235.17 37.65
5 Miami (FL)  35.50 232.25 35.29
6 TCU  36.92 205.64 34.90
7 Penn St.  37.90 169.23 33.73
8 Oklahoma  28.60 272.75 32.72
9 Georgia  32.98 161.04 30.04
10 Virginia Tech  26.13 231.04

28.98

11 Wisconsin  27.50 167.33 26.70
12 Oklahoma St.  23.03 218.82 26.30
13 Notre Dame  29.07 116.45 25.20
14 USC  24.70 139.60 23.45
15 Michigan  19.08 197.29 22.59
16 Maryland  23.50 132.72 22.31
17 Auburn  21.17 160.60 22.15
18 Oregon  18.63 170.17 20.93
19 Florida St.  17.69 122.08 17.90
20 Arizona  16.67 131.14 17.67
21 Michigan St.  13.19 160.02 16.80
22 Mississippi St.  14.50 131.25 16.23
23 Louisville  9.44 194.75 16.03
24 Baylor  11.71 162.00 15.91
25 Duke  11.77 144.81 15.09
26 Georgia Tech  7.03 203.58 14.87
27 Washington  16.21 73.46 14.48
28 West Virginia  11.67 125.83 14.07
29 Texas Tech  13.08 96.83 13.57
30 Iowa  17.40 35.63 13.38
31 Washington St.  9.81 134.85 13.29
32 Boise St.  9.46 107.17 11.67
33 Stanford  14.83 2.03 9.99
34 N.C. State  9.13 71.23 9.65
35 Purdue  9.46 63.50 9.48
36 SMU  11.21 28.21 8.88
37 UT-San Antonio 0.00 174.83 8.75
38 Arkansas  7.17 74.53 8.51
39 Colorado St.  6.88 74.42 8.31
40 Texas  7.75 62.13 8.27
41 South Florida  6.85 61.81 7.66
42 Indiana  9.25 21.94 7.26
43 Colorado  9.19 20.17 7.13
44 Texas A&M  6.75 51.75 7.09
45 Wake Forest  8.31 25.83 6.83
46 Virginia  3.11 74.67 5.81
47 UCLA  4.17 59.18 5.74
48 Minnesota  6.54 18.85 5.30
49 Houston  6.17 11.35 4.68
50 Iowa St.  6.75 -6.97 4.15
51 Memphis  8.17 -30.17 3.94
52 W. Michigan  7.67 -33.79 3.42
53 Navy  2.35 22.38 2.69
54 Arizona St.  4.23 -8.73 2.39
55 Northwestern  3.42 1.17 2.34
56 San Diego St.  5.50 -27.00 2.32
57 Pittsburgh  0.38 39.81 2.24
58 Fresno St.  0.53 35.06 2.11
59 Utah  3.03 -1.50 1.94
60 Kansas St.  4.00 -25.89 1.37
61 North Texas  -3.44 71.92 1.31
62 Kentucky  7.10 -68.83 1.29
63 Syracuse  -4.50 72.77 0.64
64 Appalachian State -2.33 17.78 -0.67
65 Northern Illinois  -2.11 7.53 -1.03
66 Nebraska  -1.77 0.07 -1.17
67 Southern Miss  -5.56 47.22 -1.34
68 Tulane  -2.00 -8.56 -1.76
69 LSU  -6.00 42.42 -1.88
70 New Mexico  -3.67 6.98 -2.10
71 Florida  2.17 -71.25 -2.12
72 UNLV  1.75 -74.83 -2.58
73 Boston Coll.  -1.73 -30.57 -2.68
74 Florida Atlantic  1.06 -73.40 -2.96
75 Vanderbilt  2.00 -87.73 -3.06
76 Tennessee  -2.87 -25.30 -3.18
77 California  -4.58 -9.77 -3.54
78 Cincinnati  -5.33 -3.92 -3.75
79 North Carolina  -4.83 -14.73 -3.96
80 Miami (OH)  -6.19 -11.69 -4.71
81 Troy  -5.52 -24.15 -4.89
82 Coastal Carolina -9.14 15.51 -5.32
83 South Carolina  -1.50 -88.47 -5.43
84 Air Force  -5.78 -33.22 -5.51
85 Ohio  -3.83 -67.68 -5.94
86 Tulsa  -3.38 -80.00 -6.26
87 Rutgers  -6.98 -43.17 -6.81
88 Toledo  -3.33 -100.00 -7.23
89 New Mexico St.  -9.73 -19.85 -7.48
90 Arkansas St.  -8.54 -37.54 -7.57
91 Illinois  -2.25 -137.10 -8.36
92 Temple  -4.48 -110.23 -8.50
93 Marshall  -5.92 -103.33 -9.11
94 Georgia State -12.00 -27.42 -9.37
95 East. Michigan  -9.92 -57.58 -9.49
96 UAB -15.11 -21.72 -11.16
97 Louisiana Tech  -12.46 -86.13 -12.61
98 Hawaii  -22.04 39.32 -12.73
99 Army  -11.54 -111.75 -13.29
100 Buffalo  -7.42 -169.67 -13.43
101 Mississippi  -17.25 -57.78 -14.39
102 Utah St.  -12.46 -123.31 -14.47
103 West. Kentucky  -11.44 -137.22 -14.49
104 LA Monroe  -12.63 -121.75 -14.51
105 Wyoming  -11.81 -149.83 -15.37
106 BYU  -13.83 -144.13 -16.43
107 Kansas  -20.17 -68.89 -16.89
108 Oregon St.  -19.67 -89.92 -17.61
109 Middle Tenn. St.  -20.13 -88.93 -17.87
110 East Carolina  -21.50 -93.83 -19.03
111 Ball St.  -17.67 -152.63 -19.41
112 Idaho  -17.28 -166.11 -19.83
113 Florida Intl.  -22.25 -125.58 -21.12
114 Cent. Michigan  -25.48 -85.35 -21.26
115 Massachusetts -24.97 -100.67 -21.68
116 Missouri  -22.75 -163.86 -23.36
117 LA Lafayette  -22.03 -182.28 -23.80
118 Connecticut  -24.11 -161.39 -24.15
119 Old Dominion -21.51 -209.19 -24.80
120 Akron  -20.04 -231.92 -24.96
121 Kent St.  -28.15 -210.69 -29.30
122 Nevada  -27.08 -225.83 -29.35
123 Texas St. -33.08 -148.88 -29.50
124 South Alabama -32.94 -198.29 -31.88
125 Georgia Southern -30.17 -280.83 -34.16
126 Bowling Green  -35.00 -247.10 -35.70
127 UNC-Charlotte -42.17 -199.83 -38.11
128 San Jose St.  -36.70 -277.47 -38.35
129 Rice  -37.23 -282.65 -38.96
130 UTEP  -36.78 -297.57 -39.41

 

By Conference

AAC

4 UCF  38.83 235.17 37.65
36 SMU  11.21 28.21 8.88
41 South Florida  6.85 61.81 7.66
49 Houston  6.17 11.35 4.68
51 Memphis  8.17 -30.17 3.94
53 Navy  2.35 22.38 2.69
68 Tulane  -2.00 -8.56 -1.76
78 Cincinnati  -5.33 -3.92 -3.75
86 Tulsa  -3.38 -80.00 -6.26
92 Temple  -4.48 -110.23 -8.50
110 East Carolina  -21.50 -93.83 -19.03
118 Connecticut  -24.11 -161.39 -24.15

ACC

3 Clemson  36.50 339.83 41.34
5 Miami (FL)  35.50 232.25 35.29
10 Virginia Tech  26.13 231.04 28.98
19 Florida St.  17.69 122.08 17.90
23 Louisville  9.44 194.75 16.03
25 Duke  11.77 144.81 15.09
26 Georgia Tech  7.03 203.58 14.87
34 N.C. State  9.13 71.23 9.65
45 Wake Forest  8.31 25.83 6.83
46 Virginia  3.11 74.67 5.81
57 Pittsburgh  0.38 39.81 2.24
63 Syracuse  -4.50 72.77 0.64
73 Boston Coll.  -1.73 -30.57 -2.68
79 North Carolina  -4.83 -14.73 -3.96

B1G

1 Ohio St.  39.20 324.60 42.37
7 Penn St.  37.90 169.23 33.73
11 Wisconsin  27.50 167.33 26.70
15 Michigan  19.08 197.29 22.59
16 Maryland  23.50 132.72 22.31
21 Michigan St.  13.19 160.02 16.80
30 Iowa  17.40 35.63 13.38
35 Purdue  9.46 63.50 9.48
42 Indiana  9.25 21.94 7.26
48 Minnesota  6.54 18.85 5.30
55 Northwestern  3.42 1.17 2.34
66 Nebraska  -1.77 0.07 -1.17
87 Rutgers  -6.98 -43.17 -6.81
91 Illinois  -2.25 -137.10 -8.36

BXII-II

6 TCU  36.92 205.64 34.90
8 Oklahoma  28.60 272.75 32.72
12 Oklahoma St.  23.03 218.82 26.30
24 Baylor  11.71 162.00 15.91
28 West Virginia  11.67 125.83 14.07
29 Texas Tech  13.08 96.83 13.57
40 Texas  7.75 62.13 8.27
50 Iowa St.  6.75 -6.97 4.15
60 Kansas St.  4.00 -25.89 1.37
107 Kansas  -20.17 -68.89 -16.89

CUSA

37 UT-San Antonio 0.00 174.83 8.75
61 North Texas  -3.44 71.92 1.31
67 Southern Miss  -5.56 47.22 -1.34
74 Florida Atlantic  1.06 -73.40 -2.96
93 Marshall  -5.92 -103.33 -9.11
96 UAB -15.11 -21.72 -11.16
97 Louisiana Tech  -12.46 -86.13 -12.61
103 West. Kentucky  -11.44 -137.22 -14.49
109 Middle Tenn. St.  -20.13 -88.93 -17.87
113 Florida Intl.  -22.25 -125.58 -21.12
119 Old Dominion -21.51 -209.19 -24.80
127 UNC-Charlotte -42.17 -199.83 -38.11
129 Rice  -37.23 -282.65 -38.96
130 UTEP  -36.78 -297.57 -39.41

Indies

13 Notre Dame  29.07 116.45 25.20
99 Army  -11.54 -111.75 -13.29
106 BYU  -13.83 -144.13 -16.43
115 Massachusetts -24.97 -100.67 -21.68

MAC

52 W. Michigan  7.67 -33.79 3.42
65 Northern Illinois  -2.11 7.53 -1.03
80 Miami (OH)  -6.19 -11.69 -4.71
85 Ohio  -3.83 -67.68 -5.94
88 Toledo  -3.33 -100.00 -7.23
95 East. Michigan  -9.92 -57.58 -9.49
100 Buffalo  -7.42 -169.67 -13.43
111 Ball St.  -17.67 -152.63 -19.41
114 Cent. Michigan  -25.48 -85.35 -21.26
120 Akron  -20.04 -231.92 -24.96
121 Kent St.  -28.15 -210.69 -29.30
126 Bowling Green  -35.00 -247.10 -35.70

MWC

32 Boise St.  9.46 107.17 11.67
39 Colorado St.  6.88 74.42 8.31
56 San Diego St.  5.50 -27.00 2.32
58 Fresno St.  0.53 35.06 2.11
70 New Mexico  -3.67 6.98 -2.10
72 UNLV  1.75 -74.83 -2.58
84 Air Force  -5.78 -33.22 -5.51
98 Hawaii  -22.04 39.32 -12.73
102 Utah St.  -12.46 -123.31 -14.47
105 Wyoming  -11.81 -149.83 -15.37
122 Nevada  -27.08 -225.83 -29.35
128 San Jose St.  -36.70 -277.47 -38.35

P12

14 USC  24.70 139.60 23.45
18 Oregon  18.63 170.17 20.93
20 Arizona  16.67 131.14 17.67
27 Washington  16.21 73.46 14.48
31 Washington St.  9.81 134.85 13.29
33 Stanford  14.83 2.03 9.99
43 Colorado  9.19 20.17 7.13
47 UCLA  4.17 59.18 5.74
54 Arizona St.  4.23 -8.73 2.39
59 Utah  3.03 -1.50 1.94
77 California  -4.58 -9.77 -3.54
108 Oregon St.  -19.67 -89.92 -17.61

SBC

64 Appalachian State -2.33 17.78 -0.67
81 Troy  -5.52 -24.15 -4.89
82 Coastal Carolina -9.14 15.51 -5.32
89 New Mexico St.  -9.73 -19.85 -7.48
90 Arkansas St.  -8.54 -37.54 -7.57
94 Georgia State -12.00 -27.42 -9.37
104 LA Monroe  -12.63 -121.75 -14.51
112 Idaho  -17.28 -166.11 -19.83
117 LA Lafayette  -22.03 -182.28 -23.80
123 Texas St. -33.08 -148.88 -29.50
124 South Alabama -32.94 -198.29 -31.88
125 Georgia Southern -30.17 -280.83 -34.16

SEC

2 Alabama  41.53 285.93 41.99
9 Georgia  32.98 161.04 30.04
17 Auburn  21.17 160.60 22.15
22 Mississippi St.  14.50 131.25 16.23
38 Arkansas  7.17 74.53 8.51
44 Texas A&M  6.75 51.75 7.09
62 Kentucky  7.10 -68.83 1.29
69 LSU  -6.00 42.42 -1.88
71 Florida  2.17 -71.25 -2.12
75 Vanderbilt  2.00 -87.73 -3.06
76 Tennessee  -2.87 -25.30 -3.18
83 South Carolina  -1.50 -88.47 -5.43
101 Mississippi  -17.25 -57.78 -14.39
116 Missouri  -22.75 -163.86 -23.36

 

 

     

 

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