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Week 12 Rankings

Duquesne Frog

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Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14.

Frogs Week-to-Week

Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU

YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40

PD: 133.3 145.2 214.1 | 240.2 28.9 131.7 | 406.0 266.0 -130.6 | 56.2

Score: 8.53 9.86 14.57 | 39.43 1.27 17.15 | 47.73 9.31 -26.58 | 19.57

Despite the loss, TCU's performance against the Sooners earned the third highest DUSHEE score of the season.

Next Opponent: Baptist

Baylor was looking fairly invincible during the first half of the season against their customary soft schedule, their lowest scoring performance a 66-7 blowout of Kansas. The one thing Baylor can say that the Frogs cannot is that the Bears have taken care of business against bad teams.

The Bears have looked a little more vincible of late against Iowa State (45-27), Kansas State (31-24), and Oklahoma (34-44) but returned to early season form against Oklahoma State.

Opp: SMU Rice Ttech | Kan WVU ISU | KSU OU OkSt

PD: 22.33 39.22 34.56 | 28.22 36.25 9.78 | -0.13 15.50 28.56

YD: 303.0 502.8 104.1 | 150.6 330.6 61.7 | -45.4 116.7 332.7

Score: 29.12 49.76 27.93 | 25.88 39.69 9.41 | -2.21 15.81 34.66

With an average DUSHEE score of 25.6 compared to TCU's 14.1, DUSHEE had Baylor as a 8.5 point favorite against the Frogs, a touchdown higher than Vegas.

Conference Rankings

SEC 8.15

B12 5.84

B10 4.30

ACC 4.05

P12 3.16

AAC -0.72

MAC -3.31

MWC -6.37

CUSA -8.01

SBC -9.81

The SEC now has a comfortable lead over the Big XII-II for top conference, largely due to the presence of Kansas. Without the Jayhawks, the BXII average score is an even 10.0.

WTF with DUSHEE's WTF Teams?!?!

DUSHEE seems to be abounding with more WTF teams this season than usual. Generally there are 1 or 2 (last season's most notable was Marshall) but this season there are a half dozen candidates. We'll take a look at 3 of the most obvious.

Bowling Green

Bowling Green lost this week to Toledo to fall to 8-3. The Falcons' losses have come as a 29-point loss to 17th-ranked Tennessee, a 3-point loss to 29th-ranked Memphis, and a 16-point loss to 16th ranked Toledo. So all of BGSU's losses have come to good opponents. They've had three mediocre wins, a TD win over a bad Purdue team, a 6-point win over a bad Buffalo team, and a

The Falcons have made their hay by pounding Maryland (48-27) and the rest of their MAC schedule. And while the MAC isn't a "Power 5" conference, this year they appear to be one of the better "Other 5" or whatever euphemism we're using to describe those conferences these days, ranking behind the American Conference but ahead the Mountain West, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt. And prior to the Toledo loss, Bowling Green had been really rolling scoring nearly 20-points above average against 5 consecutive MAC opponents, UMass (62-38), Akron (59-10), Kent (48-0), Ohio (62-24), and Western Michigan (41-27). Here are BGSU's numbers week-to-week:

Opp: Tenn Mary Mem | Pur Buf Umass | Akr KentSt Ohio | WMU Tol

YD: -22.44 6.56 4.33 | -8.75 1.89 21.60 | 50.78 34.67 42.78 | 21.00 0.11

PD: -12.4 292.0 135.9 | -19.4 -15.2 203.3 | 265.7 343.4 86.6 | 90.6 53.33

Score: -15.55 18.08 9.27 | -6.74 0.54 23.95 | 46.33 39.24 32.58 | 18.25 2.58

The Falcons are ranked 37th in the Massey Composite and no higher than 20th in any of the rankings used in the composite. DUSHEE clearly overrates Bowling Green at 9th.

Appalachian State

App State is an 8-2 Sun Belt team ranked 15th in the DUSHEE rankings, having lost badly to Clemson (10-41) and Arkansas State (27-40). Like Bowling Green, they had a few stinker wins, namely Wyoming (31-13) and Troy (44-41). Aside from these 4, they've pounded their Sun Belt opponents, crushing Old Dominion (49-0), Georgia State (37-3), Louisiana-Monroe (59-14), Georgia Southern (31-13), and Idaho (47-20).

Opp: Clem ODU Wyo | GaSt ULaMon GaSo | Troy ArkSt Ida

PD: -13.89 39.50 0.44 | 33.75 21.78 31.63 | -2.38 -12.00 13.22

YD: 117.7 286.7 -149.2 | 309.3 144.8 291.1 | -66.5 -57.0 143.0

Score: -3.73 39.80 -6.71 | 37.02 21.32 34.75 | -4.71 -10.68 15.53

App State is 48th in the Massey Composite with a high of 21st. Again, DUSHEE clearly overrates the Mountaineers

West Virginia

Perhaps DUSHEE just has an inherent bias for Mountaineers? West Virginia has been discussed in previous posts but they remain very high in the rankings. Their updated week-to-week looks like this:

Opp: GaSo Mary OU | OkSt Bay TCU | Ttech Tex Kan

PD: 60.88 26.56 4.50 | 9.67 1.00 -20.33 | 9.00 14.44 17.11

YD: 455.4 207.6 157.4 | 136.0 -7.9 -146.2 | 134.1 -14.2 142.8

Score: 61.97 27.45 10.39 | 12.83 0.30 -20.42 | 12.30 8.96 18.11

West Virginia has avoided really awful performances aside from their game against the Frogs. Their ranking is still largely buoyed by the statistical outlier which is their 44-0 beatdown of a decent Georgia Southern team. Take away that game and WVU's PD falls from 13.65 to 8.74.

So evaluating these three teams, one sees two different problems. In the West Virginia case, the problem is that of a statistical outlier. Statistical outliers are simple enough to deal with by downgrading games as they deviate more from the average performance of the team.

The BGSU/AppSt problem is one of unbalanced scheduling. The foundation of the methodology is that there is enough interdependency between the 129 FBS teams that the "average" opponent for each team is roughly equivalent. That is not going to be the case for those on either end of the extreme in terms of strength of schedule. This problem is a more difficult one to reduce from the numbers. A blanket diminishing of games against bad teams is dangerous because close games against bad teams (or losses) would be de-emphasized just like blow out wins. And a blanket de-emphasis of blow out wins will diminish the effect of big margin wins against good teams. So the fix is to diminish big margins between widely disparate teams but not small margins. I'll put some thought into how to do that over the off season.

Overall Ranking

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score

1 Oklahoma 26.35 220.27 27.91

2 Clemson 22.56 247.64 26.67

3 Alabama 24.54 200.61 25.78

4 Baylor 23.81 206.30 25.56

5 Mississippi 17.78 152.28 19.00

6 Ohio St. 19.32 118.00 18.42

7 Notre Dame 17.61 133.43 18.01

8 Navy 18.86 77.66 16.22

9 Bowling Green 13.87 129.43 15.32

10 Michigan 15.16 100.99 14.85

____________________________________________

11 West Virginia 13.65 118.32 14.65

12 Mississippi St. 15.94 84.40 14.59

13 North Carolina 17.05 61.73 14.26

14 TCU 10.62 149.10 14.08

15 Appalachian State 12.45 113.32 13.62

16 Toledo 14.70 75.73 13.36

17 Tennessee 14.12 79.45 13.15

18 Florida St. 13.11 89.42 12.94

19 USC 13.74 76.73 12.76

20 Florida 13.26 81.20 12.65

_____________________________________________

21 Arkansas 10.60 118.79 12.65

22 West. Kentucky 12.91 84.67 12.58

23 Oklahoma St. 15.97 39.73 12.51

24 Michigan St. 12.84 82.26 12.42

25 Stanford 13.85 64.99 12.29

26 Boise St. 9.52 125.49 12.24

27 Houston 13.57 64.59 12.08

28 LSU 11.32 94.50 11.98

29 Memphis 10.54 101.55 11.79

30 Air Force 7.37 134.28 11.22

_______________________________________________

31 Wisconsin 10.44 88.34 11.11

32 Iowa 11.02 60.07 10.16

33 Southern Miss 6.94 115.03 10.03

34 UCLA 8.73 84.16 9.77

35 W. Michigan 7.62 89.35 9.28

36 BYU 9.33 65.06 9.27

37 Oregon 10.18 45.19 8.91

38 Texas A&M 9.27 53.21 8.68

39 Pittsburgh 7.75 58.63 7.92

40 Washington 9.78 26.86 7.78

_____________________________________________

41 Nebraska 7.89 51.29 7.67

42 N.C. State 7.19 60.61 7.64

43 Georgia 7.77 51.46 7.60

44 Utah 10.34 14.91 7.59

45 California 6.94 61.79 7.53

46 Texas Tech 5.94 75.14 7.49

47 Georgia Southern 6.13 64.24 7.10

48 South Florida 8.20 21.09 6.46

49 Penn St. 7.88 23.87 6.38

50 Louisiana Tech 5.53 55.00 6.27

___________________________________________

51 Cincinnati 2.90 92.31 6.27

52 Temple 8.72 4.18 6.01

53 San Diego St. 5.91 39.21 5.78

54 Marshall 8.40 2.37 5.71

55 Washington St. 4.88 49.04 5.55

56 Northern Illinois 6.95 18.58 5.50

57 Utah St. 6.15 23.76 5.22

58 Louisville 3.03 62.89 4.97

59 Arizona St. 3.99 35.31 4.32

60 Cent. Michigan 4.25 31.31 4.30

______________________________________________

61 Northwestern 4.89 9.06 3.68

62 Virginia Tech 4.76 10.70 3.67

63 Georgia Tech 2.45 34.05 3.23

64 Middle Tenn. St. 1.06 39.93 2.58

65 East Carolina 2.75 8.72 2.24

66 Auburn 3.60 -9.47 1.96

67 Minnesota 0.17 37.93 1.90

68 Illinois 0.82 20.88 1.53

69 Miami (FL) -0.40 4.02 -0.08

70 Vanderbilt -0.30 2.19 -0.10

_____________________________________________

71 Indiana 1.08 -19.25 -0.19

72 Arkansas St. -0.06 -9.66 -0.49

73 Duke -1.26 1.42 -0.77

74 Boston Coll. -1.93 3.32 -1.13

75 Ohio -3.50 14.38 -1.66

76 Missouri -1.15 -32.09 -2.27

77 Iowa St. -2.95 -7.02 -2.30

78 Connecticut -1.02 -38.58 -2.49

79 Arizona -3.86 -7.73 -2.93

80 Akron -3.87 -8.60 -2.98

_____________________________________________

81 Kansas St. 0.41 -75.12 -3.25

82 Virginia -3.92 -18.08 -3.46

83 Colorado St. -4.30 -15.63 -3.60

84 Maryland -4.73 -18.42 -4.02

85 Kentucky -3.87 -31.10 -4.04

86 Tulsa -4.79 -28.47 -4.53

87 Troy -6.94 -42.22 -6.61

88 Texas -4.78 -73.08 -6.62

89 Buffalo -6.17 -55.39 -6.71

90 South Carolina -4.95 -89.30 -7.49

_______________________________________________

91 San Jose St. -7.87 -51.31 -7.66

92 Massachusetts -7.96 -60.60 -8.15

93 Wake Forest -8.08 -60.60 -8.23

94 Georgia State -12.11 -43.56 -10.12

95 Florida Atlantic -10.49 -68.24 -10.20

96 Nevada -9.69 -81.13 -10.27

97 SMU -11.79 -61.09 -10.73

98 Syracuse -6.03 -145.89 -10.87

99 Purdue -9.66 -95.03 -10.90

100 Wyoming -15.05 -46.52 -12.22

_______________________________________________

101 UNLV -12.45 -84.91 -12.29

102 South Alabama -15.65 -47.42 -12.66

103 Rutgers -11.17 -115.45 -12.87

104 LA Lafayette -14.11 -93.58 -13.80

105 Florida Intl. -12.12 -125.86 -13.99

106 New Mexico -10.77 -153.08 -14.37

107 Ball St. -12.52 -141.89 -15.01

108 Colorado -15.54 -105.96 -15.34

109 Old Dominion -16.23 -103.82 -15.69

110 Miami (OH) -18.51 -83.91 -16.28

_________________________________________________

111 Army -16.87 -114.82 -16.64

112 Kent St. -16.70 -119.02 -16.72

113 UT-San Antonio -16.88 -123.51 -17.06

114 Idaho -18.88 -101.99 -17.38

115 Rice -19.68 -97.28 -17.69

116 Texas St. -18.09 -152.22 -19.21

117 Oregon St. -19.70 -153.40 -20.34

118 New Mexico St. -21.92 -141.10 -21.24

119 UTEP -22.10 -144.64 -21.53

120 North Texas -22.85 -145.31 -22.06

_______________________________________________

121 Fresno St. -21.26 -186.33 -22.92

122 UNC-Charlotte -25.18 -135.77 -23.16

123 East. Michigan -23.59 -160.52 -23.26

124 Tulane -23.23 -174.08 -23.66

125 LA Monroe -27.49 -187.72 -27.14

126 Hawaii -27.66 -193.76 -27.54

127 UCF -25.87 -236.19 -28.34

128 Kansas -30.01 -247.28 -31.62

Conference Rankings

Rank Team PD YD Score

AAC

8 Navy 18.86 77.66 16.22

27 Houston 13.57 64.59 12.08

29 Memphis 10.54 101.55 11.79

48 South Florida 8.20 21.09 6.46

51 Cincinnati 2.90 92.31 6.27

52 Temple 8.72 4.18 6.01

65 East Carolina 2.75 8.72 2.24

78 Connecticut -1.02 -38.58 -2.49

86 Tulsa -4.79 -28.47 -4.53

97 SMU -11.79 -61.09 -10.73

125 Tulane -23.23 -174.08 -23.66

128 UCF -25.87 -236.19 -28.34

ACC

2 Clemson 22.56 247.64 26.67

13 North Carolina 17.05 61.73 14.26

18 Florida St. 13.11 89.42 12.94

39 Pittsburgh 7.75 58.63 7.92

42 N.C. State 7.19 60.61 7.64

58 Louisville 3.03 62.89 4.97

62 Virginia Tech 4.76 10.70 3.67

63 Georgia Tech 2.45 34.05 3.23

69 Miami (FL) -0.40 4.02 -0.08

73 Duke -1.26 1.42 -0.77

74 Boston Coll. -1.93 3.32 -1.13

82 Virginia -3.92 -18.08 -3.46

93 Wake Forest -8.08 -60.60 -8.23

98 Syracuse -6.03 -145.89 -10.87

B1G

6 Ohio St. 19.32 118.00 18.42

10 Michigan 15.16 100.99 14.85

24 Michigan St. 12.84 82.26 12.42

31 Wisconsin 10.44 88.34 11.11

32 Iowa 11.02 60.07 10.16

41 Nebraska 7.89 51.29 7.67

49 Penn St. 7.88 23.87 6.38

61 Northwestern 4.89 9.06 3.68

67 Minnesota 0.17 37.93 1.90

68 Illinois 0.82 20.88 1.53

71 Indiana 1.08 -19.25 -0.19

84 Maryland -4.73 -18.42 -4.02

99 Purdue -9.66 -95.03 -10.90

104 Rutgers -11.17 -115.45 -12.87

BXII-II

1 Oklahoma 26.35 220.27 27.91

4 Baylor 23.81 206.30 25.56

11 West Virginia 13.65 118.32 14.65

14 TCU 10.62 149.10 14.08

23 Oklahoma St. 15.97 39.73 12.51

46 Texas Tech 5.94 75.14 7.49

77 Iowa St. -2.95 -7.02 -2.30

81 Kansas St. 0.41 -75.12 -3.25

88 Texas -4.78 -73.08 -6.62

129 Kansas -30.01 -247.28 -31.62

CUSA

22 West. Kentucky 12.91 84.67 12.58

33 Southern Miss 6.94 115.03 10.03

50 Louisiana Tech 5.53 55.00 6.27

54 Marshall 8.40 2.37 5.71

64 Middle Tenn. St. 1.06 39.93 2.58

95 Florida Atlantic -10.49 -68.24 -10.20

106 Florida Intl. -12.12 -125.86 -13.99

110 Old Dominion -16.23 -103.82 -15.69

114 UT-San Antonio -16.88 -123.51 -17.06

116 Rice -19.68 -97.28 -17.69

120 UTEP -22.10 -144.64 -21.53

121 North Texas -22.85 -145.31 -22.06

123 UNC-Charlotte -25.18 -135.77 -23.16

Indies

7 Notre Dame 17.61 133.43 18.01

36 BYU 9.33 65.06 9.27

112 Army -16.87 -114.82 -16.64

MAC

9 Bowling Green 13.87 129.43 15.32

16 Toledo 14.70 75.73 13.36

35 W. Michigan 7.62 89.35 9.28

56 Northern Illinois 6.95 18.58 5.50

60 Cent. Michigan 4.25 31.31 4.30

75 Ohio -3.50 14.38 -1.66

80 Akron -3.87 -8.60 -2.98

89 Buffalo -6.17 -55.39 -6.71

92 Massachusetts -7.96 -60.60 -8.15

108 Ball St. -12.52 -141.89 -15.01

111 Miami (OH) -18.51 -83.91 -16.28

113 Kent St. -16.70 -119.02 -16.72

124 East. Michigan -23.59 -160.52 -23.26

MWC

26 Boise St. 9.52 125.49 12.24

30 Air Force 7.37 134.28 11.22

53 San Diego St. 5.91 39.21 5.78

57 Utah St. 6.15 23.76 5.22

83 Colorado St. -4.30 -15.63 -3.60

91 San Jose St. -7.87 -51.31 -7.66

96 Nevada -9.69 -81.13 -10.27

100 Wyoming -15.05 -46.52 -12.22

101 UNLV -12.45 -84.91 -12.29

107 New Mexico -10.77 -153.08 -14.37

122 Fresno St. -21.26 -186.33 -22.92

127 Hawaii -27.66 -193.76 -27.54

P12

19 USC 13.74 76.73 12.76

25 Stanford 13.85 64.99 12.29

34 UCLA 8.73 84.16 9.77

37 Oregon 10.18 45.19 8.91

40 Washington 9.78 26.86 7.78

44 Utah 10.34 14.91 7.59

45 California 6.94 61.79 7.53

55 Washington St. 4.88 49.04 5.55

59 Arizona St. 3.99 35.31 4.32

79 Arizona -3.86 -7.73 -2.93

109 Colorado -15.54 -105.96 -15.34

118 Oregon St. -19.70 -153.40 -20.34

SBC

15 Appalachian State 12.45 113.32 13.62

47 Georgia Southern 6.13 64.24 7.10

72 Arkansas St. -0.06 -9.66 -0.49

87 Troy -6.94 -42.22 -6.61

94 Georgia State -12.11 -43.56 -10.12

103 South Alabama -15.65 -47.42 -12.66

105 LA Lafayette -14.11 -93.58 -13.80

115 Idaho -18.88 -101.99 -17.38

117 Texas St. -18.09 -152.22 -19.21

119 New Mexico St. -21.92 -141.10 -21.24

126 LA Monroe -27.49 -187.72 -27.14

SEC

3 Alabama 24.54 200.61 25.78

5 Mississippi 17.78 152.28 19.00

12 Mississippi St. 15.94 84.40 14.59

17 Tennessee 14.12 79.45 13.15

20 Florida 13.26 81.20 12.65

21 Arkansas 10.60 118.79 12.65

28 LSU 11.32 94.50 11.98

38 Texas A&M 9.27 53.21 8.68

43 Georgia 7.77 51.46 7.60

66 Auburn 3.60 -9.47 1.96

70 Vanderbilt -0.30 2.19 -0.10

76 Missouri -1.15 -32.09 -2.27

85 Kentucky -3.87 -31.10 -4.04

90 South Carolina -4.95 -89.30 -7.49



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