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Week 11 Rankings -- I've Got Bad News and I've Got Bad News

Duquesne Frog

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DUSHEE is a sentient being. He senses the derision and scoffing being heaped on him by certain individuals among the Frog Faithful. He has heard your criticism and feels hurt and defensive.

The argument seems to be why and how teams with more losses, in some cases several more and in "weaker" conferences, can be ranked above the Frogs. The answer is that DUSHEE makes no evaluation based on the win-loss binary. It definitively does not view a close win against one of the worst teams in the country as an indication of a better performance than a close loss against a top-25 team. Quite the contrary.

Kansas, despite losing to TCU, earned a significantly higher DUSHEE score for losing to the Frogs than TCU did for beating Kansas. Prior to Saturday, TCU had a 13 average point differential and a 195 average yard differential against their opponents than their opponents had against their other opponents. Kansas' comparative numbers were -31 points and -256 yards. By beating Kansas by 6 and outgaining them by 163 (and keep in mind that 105th ranked Rutgers beat Kansas by 13 and outgained them by 177), TCU's performance was almost 4 touchdowns and 100 yards BELOW AVERAGE compared to Kansas' prior opponents. Meanwhile Kansas performance against TCU was a touchdown and 40 yards ABOVE AVERAGE compared to TCU's prior opponents. Looking at this another way, Saturday, Kansas played against TCU more like you would expect an average Nebraska, Oregon, or Cal (teams averaging close to a 7 PD and 40 YD on the year) would have played against them while TCU played Kansas more like you would expect an average New Mexico State or Eastern Michigan to play against them. Still better than Kansas, but not better than probably some 110 teams in FBS.

So it is in this implicit way DUSHEE rewards close losses against good teams (which, aside from Saturday, TCU has been) and punishes close wins against bad teams (which, aside from Saturday, Kansas has most definitively been). Voter polls do not traditionally operate in this way. Close wins against bad teams are not punished (at least not much) and close losses against good teams are often punished pretty severely even if the close lose almost exactly matches the expectation set up by the ranking prior to the game (one of the real stupidities of the "human" polling, IMO).

West Virginia and Tennessee are high because they have both played among the most difficult schedules and been largely competitive in every game despite losing many of them. DUSHEE takes the philosophy that if the 4th best team in the country loses close games against each of the three teams better than them, they are still the 4th best team in the country despite having 3 losses.

Boise's losses have either come against decent teams where they turned the ball over a lot (EIGHT turnovers against Utah State, the definition of flukey) or against bad teams that they dominated in every other statistical category other than turnovers and points (New Mexico, whom they outgained by 230 yards, held a 40-11 first down margin, etc.)

Bowling Green lost competitive games to Tennessee and Memphis, both teams in the top 20. By far, their worst performance of the year was a tight win against Purdue.

In the dead time between the regular season and the bowls, we'll dive into the numbers of some of these questionable teams a little more. But suffice it to say, DUSHEE only looks at two statistics and the numbers are what they are.

TCU dropped 5.5 points in the Kansas game, falling to 22nd. Here is how the Frogs' week-to-week performance looks as of this week:

Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan

2.11 -0.75 6.78 | 42.22 -1.57 15.88 | 37.86 -1.63 -29.13

145.7 113.0 214.1 | 240.2 19.4 120.3 | 364.3 306.8 -116.1

8.26 4.81 14.59 | 39.45 -0.13 16.24 | 42.37 13.34 -24.88

The Kansas State game has no fallen into negative territory overall. The Frogs have had a negative PD in 4 games now (SMU, KSU, OSU, KU). Kansas was the first game of the season where the Frogs have had a negative YD.

Next Opponent: Oklahoma

And the news goes from bad to worse as the Sooners' impressive road win against Baylor (and Clemson's weak performance against ACC doormat Syracuse) launched the Sooners into the #1 slot, meaning that the Frogs will get the privilege of following up a game against the worst team in the country with a game against the best team in the country. Here is the Sooners' week-to-week:

Akr Tenn Tulsa | WVU Tex KSU | Ttech Kan ISU | Bay

36.00 17.50 13.33 | 26.43 -13.33 53.29 | 43.44 26.00 29.38 | 42.00

314.4 110.6 181.7 | 100.3 -180.9 362.3 | 258.6 256.3 289.0 | 348.1

38.78 16.87 17.43 | 22.34 -17.40 52.56 | 41.12 29.38 33.17 | 44.37

Oklahoma has followed up that increasingly improbable performance against the Longhorns with 5 consecutive dominant performances. Really dominant. Scary dominant. Even prior to the Texas game, the Sooners had a few other moments of looking mortal, coming from behind to beat Tennessee in double overtime and only beating an okay Tulsa team by 2 TDs. The Frogs have only had 2 performances all year with a DUSHEE score above 20 (Texas and West Virginia). Oklahoma has had 7. DUSHEE has Oklahoma as an 18-point favorite against the Frogs in Norman.

Top 3/Bottom 3 of the Week

46.99 @Marshall (52-463) vs. FIU (0-209)

46.02 Southern Miss (65-682)@ Rice (10-214)

44.37 Oklahoma (44-511) @ Baylor (34-416)

-46.96 @Rice (10-214) vs. Southern Miss (65-682)

-45.03 @Hawaii (14-437) vs. Fresno (42-455)

-38.37 FIU (0-209) @ Marshall (52-463)

Overall Ranking

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score

1 Oklahoma 27.40 204.03 27.86

2 Clemson 24.36 239.45 27.50

3 Alabama 24.42 200.10 25.69

4 Baylor 22.23 179.52 23.26

5 Ohio St. 20.52 143.30 20.42

6 Notre Dame 20.34 136.77 19.99

7 Mississippi 16.97 175.91 19.59

8 Bowling Green 15.68 137.49 16.92

9 Memphis 13.78 149.50 16.22

10 West Virginia 14.90 127.95 15.95

____________________________________________

11 USC 17.07 96.07 15.90

12 North Carolina 18.69 66.30 15.58

13 Houston 16.51 85.63 15.03

14 Navy 17.73 60.95 14.68

15 Michigan 14.59 90.83 14.00

16 Florida 14.09 96.05 13.91

17 Tennessee 15.12 79.56 13.82

18 Mississippi St. 15.32 76.35 13.81

19 Appalachian State 12.47 111.18 13.54

20 Stanford 13.86 85.97 13.29

_______________________________________________

21 Boise St. 9.35 142.51 12.94

22 TCU 7.97 156.40 12.67

23 LSU 13.13 82.08 12.61

24 Florida St. 12.54 87.95 12.50

25 Arkansas 10.23 117.68 12.36

26 Oklahoma St. 15.17 46.73 12.31

27 Wisconsin 11.77 94.63 12.30

28 Iowa 11.50 83.29 11.59

29 Toledo 12.50 63.78 11.33

30 Cincinnati 7.12 119.57 10.37

________________________________________________

31 W. Michigan 8.81 91.53 10.18

32 Michigan St. 11.18 50.90 9.85

33 UCLA 7.88 89.05 9.44

34 West. Kentucky 8.64 65.72 8.85

35 BYU 8.02 68.72 8.58

36 N.C. State 7.83 68.04 8.42

37 Air Force 5.70 96.18 8.32

38 Southern Miss 5.54 95.68 8.19

39 Utah 11.70 6.49 8.11

40 Texas Tech 6.16 77.55 7.75

_________________________________________________

41 Louisiana Tech 7.29 61.45 7.75

42 Washington 8.99 30.91 7.45

43 Pittsburgh 7.59 46.22 7.24

44 Nebraska 7.11 47.59 6.98

45 Oregon 7.07 44.80 6.82

46 California 7.21 41.02 6.73

47 Louisville 4.10 82.52 6.61

48 Texas A&M 7.77 26.13 6.41

49 Penn St. 7.77 23.17 6.27

50 Georgia Southern 5.39 56.09 6.23

________________________________________________

51 Georgia 5.93 42.86 5.97

52 Georgia Tech 5.79 42.16 5.84

53 Cent. Michigan 5.90 35.63 5.61

54 Marshall 8.33 -0.87 5.51

55 Northern Illinois 6.59 22.27 5.44

56 Utah St. 6.34 21.62 5.25

57 Washington St. 4.10 47.61 4.97

58 San Diego St. 3.73 37.42 4.25

59 Arizona St. 2.74 21.01 2.82

60 Temple 6.47 -32.34 2.79

________________________________________________

61 Illinois 2.93 16.61 2.74

62 Middle Tenn. St. 0.59 46.40 2.58

63 Vanderbilt 0.83 40.82 2.48

64 Minnesota -0.28 55.59 2.43

65 Northwestern 3.32 1.02 2.26

66 Virginia Tech 3.06 1.80 2.12

67 South Florida 3.32 -13.23 1.59

68 Auburn 2.38 -2.63 1.46

69 Duke 0.67 9.28 0.89

70 Indiana 1.24 -9.68 0.37

_________________________________________________

71 Iowa St. -0.81 13.35 0.09

72 Arkansas St. 0.02 -7.99 -0.36

73 East Carolina 0.13 -21.86 -0.94

74 Miami (FL) -1.67 3.39 -0.96

75 Kansas St. 2.47 -60.16 -1.19

76 Arizona -2.54 5.80 -1.42

77 Boston Coll. -3.23 13.50 -1.52

78 Maryland -2.45 -6.30 -1.93

79 Ohio -4.46 10.74 -2.47

80 Missouri -1.92 -28.02 -2.60

_________________________________________________

81 Tulsa -4.29 -18.56 -3.73

82 Colorado St. -5.00 -16.14 -4.09

83 Virginia -4.91 -18.32 -4.14

84 Buffalo -3.98 -49.24 -4.97

85 Akron -6.53 -17.32 -5.17

86 Massachusetts -5.42 -49.76 -5.95

87 Connecticut -4.61 -61.47 -5.97

88 Texas -4.51 -75.30 -6.55

89 Troy -6.90 -43.91 -6.66

90 Kentucky -7.54 -53.85 -7.56

__________________________________________________

91 South Carolina -4.98 -93.95 -7.74

92 Wake Forest -8.74 -46.02 -7.99

93 San Jose St. -8.40 -51.42 -8.02

94 UNLV -10.63 -85.98 -11.13

95 Syracuse -6.62 -145.84 -11.27

96 Nevada -10.55 -90.14 -11.27

97 Purdue -9.70 -119.96 -12.11

98 Florida Intl. -9.90 -119.23 -12.21

99 Wyoming -15.45 -46.76 -12.50

100 Florida Atlantic -12.82 -92.06 -12.88

___________________________________________________

101 SMU -14.05 -78.01 -13.04

103 South Alabama -16.08 -51.12 -13.12

104 Georgia State -14.94 -68.08 -13.16

105 Rutgers -12.20 -112.23 -13.41

106 New Mexico -11.22 -149.63 -14.52

107 LA Lafayette -15.34 -102.13 -15.03

108 Colorado -15.27 -104.99 -15.11

109 Ball St. -12.56 -146.28 -15.25

110 Army -15.38 -115.83 -15.70

_______________________________________________________

111 Old Dominion -17.23 -105.37 -16.44

112 Kent St. -17.49 -120.35 -17.32

113 UT-San Antonio -17.79 -116.10 -17.32

114 Idaho -18.56 -109.43 -17.52

115 Oregon St. -16.95 -142.21 -17.99

116 Miami (OH) -20.74 -95.22 -18.31

117 Rice -20.05 -119.02 -18.96

118 UNC-Charlotte -22.53 -117.43 -20.55

119 Tulane -19.74 -158.62 -20.62

120 Texas St. -18.98 -170.79 -20.69

_______________________________________________________

121 Fresno St. -19.58 -183.20 -21.67

122 North Texas -23.19 -156.67 -22.83

123 East. Michigan -23.81 -163.84 -23.58

124 New Mexico St. -24.89 -157.67 -24.01

125 UCF -22.88 -209.47 -25.10

126 UTEP -25.93 -167.54 -25.17

127 LA Monroe -26.55 -169.76 -25.68

128 Hawaii -26.70 -194.14 -26.93

129 Kansas -27.54 -224.91 -28.93

By Conference

Rank Team PD YD Score

AAC

9 Memphis 13.78 149.50 16.22

13 Houston 16.51 85.63 15.03

14 Navy 17.73 60.95 14.68

30 Cincinnati 7.12 119.57 10.37

60 Temple 6.47 -32.34 2.79

67 South Florida 3.32 -13.23 1.59

73 East Carolina 0.13 -21.86 -0.94

81 Tulsa -4.29 -18.56 -3.73

87 Connecticut -4.61 -61.47 -5.97

101 SMU -14.05 -78.01 -13.04

119 Tulane -19.74 -158.62 -20.62

125 UCF -22.88 -209.47 -25.10

ACC

2 Clemson 24.36 239.45 27.50

12 North Carolina 18.69 66.30 15.58

24 Florida St. 12.54 87.95 12.50

36 N.C. State 7.83 68.04 8.42

43 Pittsburgh 7.59 46.22 7.24

47 Louisville 4.10 82.52 6.61

52 Georgia Tech 5.79 42.16 5.84

66 Virginia Tech 3.06 1.80 2.12

69 Duke 0.67 9.28 0.89

74 Miami (FL) -1.67 3.39 -0.96

77 Boston Coll. -3.23 13.50 -1.52

83 Virginia -4.91 -18.32 -4.14

92 Wake Forest -8.74 -46.02 -7.99

95 Syracuse -6.62 -145.84 -11.27

B1G

5 Ohio St. 20.52 143.30 20.42

15 Michigan 14.59 90.83 14.00

27 Wisconsin 11.77 94.63 12.30

28 Iowa 11.50 83.29 11.59

32 Michigan St. 11.18 50.90 9.85

44 Nebraska 7.11 47.59 6.98

49 Penn St. 7.77 23.17 6.27

61 Illinois 2.93 16.61 2.74

64 Minnesota -0.28 55.59 2.43

65 Northwestern 3.32 1.02 2.26

70 Indiana 1.24 -9.68 0.37

78 Maryland -2.45 -6.30 -1.93

97 Purdue -9.70 -119.96 -12.11

105 Rutgers -12.20 -112.23 -13.41

BXII-II

1 Oklahoma 27.40 204.03 27.86

4 Baylor 22.23 179.52 23.26

10 West Virginia 14.90 127.95 15.95

22 TCU 7.97 156.40 12.67

26 Oklahoma St. 15.17 46.73 12.31

40 Texas Tech 6.16 77.55 7.75

71 Iowa St. -0.81 13.35 0.09

75 Kansas St. 2.47 -60.16 -1.19

88 Texas -4.51 -75.30 -6.55

129 Kansas -27.54 -224.91 -28.93

CUSA

34 West. Kentucky 8.64 65.72 8.85

38 Southern Miss 5.54 95.68 8.19

41 Louisiana Tech 7.29 61.45 7.75

54 Marshall 8.33 -0.87 5.51

62 Middle Tenn. St. 0.59 46.40 2.58

98 Florida Intl. -9.90 -119.23 -12.21

100 Florida Atlantic -12.82 -92.06 -12.88

111 Old Dominion -17.23 -105.37 -16.44

113 UT-San Antonio -17.79 -116.10 -17.32

117 Rice -20.05 -119.02 -18.96

118 UNC-Charlotte -22.53 -117.43 -20.55

122 North Texas -23.19 -156.67 -22.83

126 UTEP -25.93 -167.54 -25.17

Indies

6 Notre Dame 20.34 136.77 19.99

35 BYU 8.02 68.72 8.58

110 Army -15.38 -115.83 -15.70

MAC

8 Bowling Green 15.68 137.49 16.92

29 Toledo 12.50 63.78 11.33

31 W. Michigan 8.81 91.53 10.18

53 Cent. Michigan 5.90 35.63 5.61

55 Northern Illinois 6.59 22.27 5.44

79 Ohio -4.46 10.74 -2.47

84 Buffalo -3.98 -49.24 -4.97

85 Akron -6.53 -17.32 -5.17

86 Massachusetts -5.42 -49.76 -5.95

109 Ball St. -12.56 -146.28 -15.25

112 Kent St. -17.49 -120.35 -17.32

116 Miami (OH) -20.74 -95.22 -18.31

123 East. Michigan -23.81 -163.84 -23.58

MWC

21 Boise St. 9.35 142.51 12.94

37 Air Force 5.70 96.18 8.32

56 Utah St. 6.34 21.62 5.25

58 San Diego St. 3.73 37.42 4.25

82 Colorado St. -5.00 -16.14 -4.09

93 San Jose St. -8.40 -51.42 -8.02

94 UNLV -10.63 -85.98 -11.13

96 Nevada -10.55 -90.14 -11.27

99 Wyoming -15.45 -46.76 -12.50

106 New Mexico -11.22 -149.63 -14.52

121 Fresno St. -19.58 -183.20 -21.67

128 Hawaii -26.70 -194.14 -26.93

P12

11 USC 17.07 96.07 15.90

20 Stanford 13.86 85.97 13.29

33 UCLA 7.88 89.05 9.44

39 Utah 11.70 6.49 8.11

42 Washington 8.99 30.91 7.45

45 Oregon 7.07 44.80 6.82

46 California 7.21 41.02 6.73

57 Washington St. 4.10 47.61 4.97

59 Arizona St. 2.74 21.01 2.82

76 Arizona -2.54 5.80 -1.42

108 Colorado -15.27 -104.99 -15.11

115 Oregon St. -16.95 -142.21 -17.99

SBC

19 Appalachian State 12.47 111.18 13.54

50 Georgia Southern 5.39 56.09 6.23

72 Arkansas St. 0.02 -7.99 -0.36

89 Troy -6.90 -43.91 -6.66

103 South Alabama -16.08 -51.12 -13.12

104 Georgia State -14.94 -68.08 -13.16

107 LA Lafayette -15.34 -102.13 -15.03

114 Idaho -18.56 -109.43 -17.52

120 Texas St. -18.98 -170.79 -20.69

124 New Mexico St. -24.89 -157.67 -24.01

127 LA Monroe -26.55 -169.76 -25.68

SEC

3 Alabama 24.42 200.10 25.69

7 Mississippi 16.97 175.91 19.59

16 Florida 14.09 96.05 13.91

17 Tennessee 15.12 79.56 13.82

18 Mississippi St. 15.32 76.35 13.81

23 LSU 13.13 82.08 12.61

25 Arkansas 10.23 117.68 12.36

48 Texas A&M 7.77 26.13 6.41

51 Georgia 5.93 42.86 5.97

63 Vanderbilt 0.83 40.82 2.48

68 Auburn 2.38 -2.63 1.46

80 Missouri -1.92 -28.02 -2.60

90 Kentucky -7.54 -53.85 -7.56

91 South Carolina -4.98 -93.95 -7.74



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Okay, I read it.  DUSHEE is ranking us below Boise State and Appalachian State and should reconsider its assumptions and question the humanoid that input its programming so that it can better perform at optimal capacity.

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