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DUSHEE Week 10 -- Don't Fret Frog Fans!

Duquesne Frog

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On a gloomy post-loss (post-non-win?) Monday, DUSHEE is here to give you good cheer and boost your morose spirits. Due to a number of factors, including the sizeable yardage advantage TCU had over Oklahoma State, DUSHEE didn't punish the Frogs as severely as you might think. TCU's DUSHEE score only dropped a point after the loss and when combined with even larger drops in DUSHEE score for both LSU and West Virginia who were ranked just above the Frogs in the poll, the Frogs actually climbed 2 spots and into the top 10. Furthermore, Baylor dropped further this week, not only falling out of the #2 spot to #4 but also falling out of the top spot for the Conference as Oklahoma climbed up to #3.

So why the hell are you so mopey this morning?

Absurd as this may seem, I feel like some more apologetics are in order. Part of the philosophy (and bias) that goes into the DUSHEE method is that margin of victory, while the most heavily weighted and most important metric in determining the best team on the field, is also highly sensitive to random factors that are poor metrics of team quality. Upsets happen. If Team A played Team B ten times, Team A might only win once, but that one time might be the day the game is actually played. And often times, when an obviously inferior team wins, it is aided by the random luck of the turnover.

The Frogs were bitten severely by the random bad luck of the turnover on Saturday. I think it is extremely unlikely that if the Frogs played Oklahoma State again that they would turn the ball over 4 times. What I think is much more likely is that the Frogs would have still dominated total yards. I also think it would continue to be likely that the Frogs would prove to be utterly incapable of stopping the long ball (they were also quite fortunate not to have given up 2-3 long TDs to WVU the week before), but with fewer opportunities to hit the long ball and continuing to dominate possession and yardage, I think the Frogs win that game more times than not.

The Frogs finished the game with a point differential of 0.43, meaning that our margin of loss against the Cowboys was about what the average margin of loss Oklahoma State's other opponents have had against them. Oklahoma State has averaged (roughly) a 20-point win against their opponents. In that respect, we were average.

However, the Frogs also finished the game with a yardage differential of 310.0 yards, meaning that we outgained Oklahoma State by 310 more yards than their average opponent had. Typically, a team can expect one point in point differential for every 7 yards of yardage differential. That means for a "typical" performance, a yardage differential of 310 yards should yield an expected point differential of 44 points. We had a point differential of 0.43. We lost by 20 points. So, even with our total inability to stop a deep ball, had we been able to not turn the ball over and maintained the same dominance in yardage margin, the expected result of the game with that yardage differential would have been a ~24 point Frog win.

DUSHEE awards teams 1/3 of the value of the "expected" point differential based on the yardage differential, meaning DUSHEE awarded TCU a 15.06 score (Point Differential + 1/3 Expected Point Differential Based on Yardage Differential), which placed the Oklahoma State performance roughly in the same territory as the Tech and Iowa State performances and significantly better than our performances in wins against Minnesota, SMU or Kansas State. Here are the updated week-by-week DUSHEE scores for the Frogs:

Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt

PD: 2.25 2.29 5.38 | 44.38 -0.50 15.29 | 36.17 0.43

YD: 158.9 129.7 192.3 | 241.6 37.3 126.9 | 366.8 310.0

Score: 9.07 7.71 12.75 | 41.10 1.45 16.24 | 41.60 15.06

Next Opponent: Kansas

Even if you find no solace in DUSHEE's rationalization of the Oklahoma State performance, perhaps you can find solace in the fact that our next opponent strengthened its hold on DUSHEE's WTitU (Worst Team in the Universe) with a -45.12 DUSHEE Score performance against Texas, rated the second worst of the week. A look at Kansas' week-to-week tally is a sight for sore Frog eyes:

Opp: Mem Rut ISU | Bay Ttech OkSt | OU Tex

PD: -23.86 -33.71 -40.71 | -31.50 -9.25 -31.57 | -30.13 -47.88

YD: -198.6 -347.9 -314.3 | -190.0 -91.3 -318.6 | -309.9 -277.0

Score: -25.37 -39.06 -42.13 | -30.06 -10.52 -36.23 | -34.86 -45.12

In only one game this year have the Jayhawks not been at least 25 points worse than an average opponent, a 30-20 loss to Texas Tech. Every other Jayhawk game has been a horrorshow. DUSHEE has the Frogs a FIFTY-FOUR point favorite at home against Kansas. The Frogs should be able to win this game with each player literally having one arm tied behind his back. Who knows, maybe that would help our deep coverage.

Top 3/ Bottom 3 Performances of the Week

The top and bottom performances of the week occurred in the same Thursday #MACtion game, where Western Michigan destroyed David Letterman's alma mater Ball State 54-7 and outgained them by 559 yards. The game lifted WMU from 58th to 36th in this week's ranking and dropped Ball from 97th to 109th.

Top 3 Performances

48.54 @Western Michigan (54-711) vs. Ball St. (7-152)

42.46 @North Carolina (66-704) vs. Duke (31-533)

39.31 @Alabama (30-434) vs. LSU (16-182)

Bottom 3 Performances

-55.36 Ball St. (7-152) @ Western Michigan (54-711)

-45.12 Kansas (20-426) @ Texas (59-598)

-44.50 @Purdue (14-263) vs. Illinois (48-595)

Conference Strength

The SEC and Big XII-II are still far and away the top two conferences in the country according to DUSHEE. DUSHEE has the Pac-12 as close to the SEC as the American Athletic Conference is to the Pac-12.

SEC 8.20

B12 7.27

B10 4.86

ACC 4.81

P12 3.72

AAC -0.75

MAC -3.70

MWC -7.54

CUSA -9.40

SBC -11.65

Strength of Schedule

For DUSHEE Top 15:

Rank Team SOS SOSRank

1 Clemson 8.96 7

2 Alabama 7.33 16

3 Oklahoma -0.23 66

4 Baylor -4.14 101

5 Notre Dame 7.42 15

6 Ohio St. -2.00 82

7 Mississippi 7.00 17

8 USC 4.53 27

9 TCU 3.53 34

10 West Virginia 13.04 1

11 LSU 2.49 47

12 Michigan -0.32 67

13 Houston -6.80 114

14 Bowling Green -2.36 84

15 Tennessee 10.21 3

Overall 15 Hardest Schedules:

WVU 13.04 1

Mary 12.48 2

Tenn 10.21 3

KSU 9.75 4

Vandy 9.04 5

Wash 8.99 6

Clem 8.96 7

Kan 8.30 8

Ark 7.89 9

GaTech 7.83 10

BC 7.79 11

Uva 7.74 12

ISU 7.65 13

Aub 7.44 14

ND 7.42 15

Overall DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team PD YD Score

1 Clemson 28.29 268.45 31.66

2 Alabama 23.09 221.08 25.93

3 Oklahoma 25.22 185.13 25.64

4 Baylor 23.29 196.78 24.91

5 Notre Dame 21.67 165.16 22.32

6 Ohio St. 20.80 137.20 20.41

7 Mississippi 16.66 178.29 19.61

8 USC 19.88 108.96 18.44

9 TCU 13.21 195.44 18.12

10 West Virginia 16.15 152.15 18.02

___________________________________________

11 LSU 17.46 102.50 16.52

12 Michigan 16.68 105.82 16.16

13 Houston 17.05 96.65 15.98

14 Bowling Green 14.33 133.50 15.92

15 Tennessee 17.22 89.58 15.75

16 Boise St. 12.95 148.29 15.70

17 North Carolina 17.49 81.31 15.54

18 Mississippi St. 18.66 59.89 15.29

19 Stanford 15.90 86.52 14.72

20 Florida 15.27 91.44 14.54

____________________________________________

21 Oklahoma St. 17.56 46.89 13.95

22 Memphis 10.95 132.74 13.63

23 Navy 16.31 50.23 13.27

24 Wisconsin 12.44 95.30 12.84

25 Iowa 12.92 83.05 12.57

26 Appalachian State 11.51 102.41 12.55

27 Cincinnati 8.36 136.33 12.08

28 Michigan St. 12.69 74.20 12.00

29 BYU 10.64 101.43 11.93

30 N.C. State 10.01 87.21 10.83

_____________________________________________

31 Florida St. 11.34 67.33 10.77

32 Toledo 12.11 51.69 10.54

33 Arkansas 7.51 102.65 9.90

34 Utah 14.02 8.74 9.76

35 Louisiana Tech 9.02 72.83 9.48

36 W. Michigan 8.23 81.48 9.37

37 West. Kentucky 8.88 71.30 9.32

38 UCLA 8.18 79.44 9.24

39 Washington 12.54 11.07 8.89

40 Louisville 6.33 95.16 8.76

_____________________________________________

41 Texas Tech 6.23 79.27 7.93

42 Nebraska 7.50 53.96 7.57

43 Texas A&M 7.98 31.86 6.84

44 Georgia Tech 5.86 59.91 6.76

45 Penn St. 8.24 22.57 6.57

46 Georgia 5.53 55.62 6.34

47 Air Force 3.24 78.21 5.89

48 California 7.48 17.82 5.84

49 Cent. Michigan 5.57 40.91 5.66

50 Temple 9.18 -14.41 5.43

_____________________________________________

51 Pittsburgh 5.19 39.51 5.35

52 Northern Illinois 6.40 19.44 5.20

53 Utah St. 6.22 19.85 5.09

54 Oregon 4.59 41.27 5.03

55 Northwestern 5.66 23.67 4.90

56 Washington St. 2.60 63.13 4.74

57 Vanderbilt 1.80 59.97 4.06

58 Arizona St. 1.90 55.86 3.93

59 Illinois 3.28 19.51 3.12

60 Georgia Southern 1.72 41.02 3.10

____________________________________________

61 Southern Miss 0.60 54.23 2.98

62 Kansas St. 6.36 -29.40 2.84

63 Virginia Tech 4.12 -7.32 2.40

64 Middle Tenn. St. 0.86 38.10 2.39

65 Duke 2.46 14.35 2.32

66 Auburn 3.33 -15.20 1.50

67 Minnesota -2.30 54.24 1.05

68 Miami (FL) 0.76 1.44 0.58

69 San Diego St. 0.08 4.60 0.27

70 Iowa St. -1.90 21.22 -0.26

______________________________________________

71 Indiana 0.89 -19.19 -0.32

72 East Carolina 0.48 -23.44 -0.80

73 Boston Coll. -2.30 13.39 -0.90

74 Marshall 0.82 -39.33 -1.33

75 Maryland -2.22 -18.59 -2.37

76 Arkansas St. -2.22 -19.32 -2.40

77 South Florida -0.79 -44.49 -2.65

78 Arizona -4.43 5.52 -2.69

79 Tulsa -3.22 -17.04 -2.96

80 Virginia -4.26 -15.85 -3.59

_____________________________________________

81 Troy -3.69 -35.00 -4.13

82 Colorado St. -6.16 -9.05 -4.54

83 Ohio -6.75 -5.05 -4.74

84 Missouri -3.31 -56.33 -4.89

85 Akron -6.59 -10.95 -4.91

86 Massachusetts -4.19 -46.06 -4.99

87 Buffalo -4.67 -46.12 -5.32

88 Texas -2.93 -75.91 -5.57

89 Connecticut -6.01 -71.11 -7.40

90 Kentucky -6.68 -69.19 -7.75

_______________________________________________

91 South Carolina -6.54 -93.56 -8.82

92 Wake Forest -9.20 -72.28 -9.58

93 San Jose St. -10.05 -61.61 -9.64

94 SMU -10.87 -51.94 -9.72

95 Florida Intl. -7.35 -112.41 -10.26

96 Wyoming -14.40 -27.68 -10.92

97 UNLV -9.82 -96.58 -11.15

98 Florida Atlantic -12.02 -77.19 -11.70

99 Purdue -9.79 -127.35 -12.60

100 Nevada -12.53 -100.03 -13.12

______________________________________________

101 Army -12.57 -102.56 -13.27

103 Syracuse -8.78 -161.13 -13.54

104 Rutgers -12.65 -113.53 -13.85

105 Rice -16.24 -84.37 -14.85

106 Oregon St. -14.80 -110.67 -15.14

107 LA Lafayette -16.07 -96.95 -15.34

108 Kent St. -16.16 -103.61 -15.71

109 Ball St. -13.07 -151.86 -15.95

110 Georgia State -18.60 -79.49 -16.19

_______________________________________________

111 South Alabama -18.86 -80.05 -16.39

112 New Mexico -15.50 -158.12 -17.87

113 Old Dominion -18.41 -120.06 -17.99

114 Colorado -18.67 -119.89 -18.16

115 UT-San Antonio -18.85 -119.22 -18.25

116 Miami (OH) -21.38 -95.84 -18.82

117 Idaho -20.80 -120.99 -19.63

118 Texas St. -18.71 -173.32 -20.74

119 Tulane -20.87 -163.91 -21.72

120 UNC-Charlotte -25.02 -139.44 -23.33

________________________________________________

121 North Texas -24.58 -153.57 -23.71

122 UCF -21.72 -202.24 -24.12

123 Fresno St. -22.80 -188.76 -24.20

124 LA Monroe -25.10 -157.32 -24.23

125 East. Michigan -24.61 -166.46 -24.34

126 New Mexico St. -25.70 -160.30 -24.77

127 UTEP -26.09 -159.92 -25.02

128 Hawaii -24.90 -197.90 -26.03

129 Kansas -31.08 -255.93 -32.92

By Conference

Rank Team PD YD Score

AAC

13 Houston 17.05 96.65 15.98

22 Memphis 10.95 132.74 13.63

23 Navy 16.31 50.23 13.27

27 Cincinnati 8.36 136.33 12.08

50 Temple 9.18 -14.41 5.43

72 East Carolina 0.48 -23.44 -0.80

77 South Florida -0.79 -44.49 -2.65

79 Tulsa -3.22 -17.04 -2.96

89 Connecticut -6.01 -71.11 -7.40

94 SMU -10.87 -51.94 -9.72

119 Tulane -20.87 -163.91 -21.72

122 UCF -21.72 -202.24 -24.12

ACC

1 Clemson 28.29 268.45 31.66

17 North Carolina 17.49 81.31 15.54

30 N.C. State 10.01 87.21 10.83

31 Florida St. 11.34 67.33 10.77

40 Louisville 6.33 95.16 8.76

44 Georgia Tech 5.86 59.91 6.76

51 Pittsburgh 5.19 39.51 5.35

63 Virginia Tech 4.12 -7.32 2.40

65 Duke 2.46 14.35 2.32

68 Miami (FL) 0.76 1.44 0.58

73 Boston Coll. -2.30 13.39 -0.90

80 Virginia -4.26 -15.85 -3.59

92 Wake Forest -9.20 -72.28 -9.58

103 Syracuse -8.78 -161.13 -13.54

B1G

6 Ohio St. 20.80 137.20 20.41

12 Michigan 16.68 105.82 16.16

24 Wisconsin 12.44 95.30 12.84

25 Iowa 12.92 83.05 12.57

28 Michigan St. 12.69 74.20 12.00

42 Nebraska 7.50 53.96 7.57

45 Penn St. 8.24 22.57 6.57

55 Northwestern 5.66 23.67 4.90

59 Illinois 3.28 19.51 3.12

67 Minnesota -2.30 54.24 1.05

71 Indiana 0.89 -19.19 -0.32

75 Maryland -2.22 -18.59 -2.37

99 Purdue -9.79 -127.35 -12.60

104 Rutgers -12.65 -113.53 -13.85

BXII-II

3 Oklahoma 25.22 185.13 25.64

4 Baylor 23.29 196.78 24.91

9 TCU 13.21 195.44 18.12

10 West Virginia 16.15 152.15 18.02

21 Oklahoma St. 17.56 46.89 13.95

41 Texas Tech 6.23 79.27 7.93

62 Kansas St. 6.36 -29.40 2.84

70 Iowa St. -1.90 21.22 -0.26

88 Texas -2.93 -75.91 -5.57

129 Kansas -31.08 -255.93 -32.92

CUSA

35 Louisiana Tech 9.02 72.83 9.48

37 West. Kentucky 8.88 71.30 9.32

61 Southern Miss 0.60 54.23 2.98

64 Middle Tenn. St. 0.86 38.10 2.39

74 Marshall 0.82 -39.33 -1.33

95 Florida Intl. -7.35 -112.41 -10.26

98 Florida Atlantic -12.02 -77.19 -11.70

105 Rice -16.24 -84.37 -14.85

113 Old Dominion -18.41 -120.06 -17.99

115 UT-San Antonio -18.85 -119.22 -18.25

120 UNC-Charlotte -25.02 -139.44 -23.33

121 North Texas -24.58 -153.57 -23.71

127 UTEP -26.09 -159.92 -25.02

Indies

5 Notre Dame 21.67 165.16 22.32

29 BYU 10.64 101.43 11.93

101 Army -12.57 -102.56 -13.27

MAC

14 Bowling Green 14.33 133.50 15.92

32 Toledo 12.11 51.69 10.54

36 W. Michigan 8.23 81.48 9.37

49 Cent. Michigan 5.57 40.91 5.66

52 Northern Illinois 6.40 19.44 5.20

83 Ohio -6.75 -5.05 -4.74

85 Akron -6.59 -10.95 -4.91

86 Massachusetts -4.19 -46.06 -4.99

87 Buffalo -4.67 -46.12 -5.32

108 Kent St. -16.16 -103.61 -15.71

109 Ball St. -13.07 -151.86 -15.95

116 Miami (OH) -21.38 -95.84 -18.82

125 East. Michigan -24.61 -166.46 -24.34

MWC

16 Boise St. 12.95 148.29 15.70

47 Air Force 3.24 78.21 5.89

53 Utah St. 6.22 19.85 5.09

69 San Diego St. 0.08 4.60 0.27

82 Colorado St. -6.16 -9.05 -4.54

93 San Jose St. -10.05 -61.61 -9.64

96 Wyoming -14.40 -27.68 -10.92

97 UNLV -9.82 -96.58 -11.15

100 Nevada -12.53 -100.03 -13.12

112 New Mexico -15.50 -158.12 -17.87

123 Fresno St. -22.80 -188.76 -24.20

128 Hawaii -24.90 -197.90 -26.03

P12

8 USC 19.88 108.96 18.44

19 Stanford 15.90 86.52 14.72

34 Utah 14.02 8.74 9.76

38 UCLA 8.18 79.44 9.24

39 Washington 12.54 11.07 8.89

48 California 7.48 17.82 5.84

54 Oregon 4.59 41.27 5.03

56 Washington St. 2.60 63.13 4.74

58 Arizona St. 1.90 55.86 3.93

78 Arizona -4.43 5.52 -2.69

106 Oregon St. -14.80 -110.67 -15.14

114 Colorado -18.67 -119.89 -18.16

SBC

26 Appalachian State 11.51 102.41 12.55

60 Georgia Southern 1.72 41.02 3.10

76 Arkansas St. -2.22 -19.32 -2.40

81 Troy -3.69 -35.00 -4.13

107 LA Lafayette -16.07 -96.95 -15.34

110 Georgia State -18.60 -79.49 -16.19

111 South Alabama -18.86 -80.05 -16.39

117 Idaho -20.80 -120.99 -19.63

118 Texas St. -18.71 -173.32 -20.74

124 LA Monroe -25.10 -157.32 -24.23

126 New Mexico St. -25.70 -160.30 -24.77

SEC

2 Alabama 23.09 221.08 25.93

7 Mississippi 16.66 178.29 19.61

11 LSU 17.46 102.50 16.52

15 Tennessee 17.22 89.58 15.75

18 Mississippi St. 18.66 59.89 15.29

20 Florida 15.27 91.44 14.54

33 Arkansas 7.51 102.65 9.90

43 Texas A&M 7.98 31.86 6.84

46 Georgia 5.53 55.62 6.34

57 Vanderbilt 1.80 59.97 4.06

66 Auburn 3.33 -15.20 1.50

84 Missouri -3.31 -56.33 -4.89

90 Kentucky -6.68 -69.19 -7.75

91 South Carolina -6.54 -93.56 -8.82



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