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TCU Bye Week DUSHEE Rankings - Strength of Schedule

Duquesne Frog

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Since there was no TCU game to factor into this week's DUSHEE rankings, I thought it might be interesting to dive into DUSHEE's strength of schedule rankings, especially since SoS is a large factor in DUSHEE WTF team and TCU's next opponent West Virginia's inflated ranking.

But first, the rankings have the Frogs holding par, remaining at 18th, despite their DUSHEE score dropping nearly a point during the bye week. The score dropped, in part, due to the continued decline of our prior opponents, as we've catalogued over the last few weeks, but it is also just the statistical phenomenon known as "regressing to the mean." If you look at any particular team's DUSHEE score, particularly those teams on either extreme -- the Top 25 and the Bottom 25 -- you'll see a general trend of those scores declining in absolute value over the course of the season. That has been no less true of Baylor, who has consistently remained #1 since the first ranking. In that week 4 ranking, Baylor started with a 54.53 DUSHEE score. They are now down to a 33.68.

TCU's ranking is as high as it is because of yardage differential. TCU is currently ranked 28th in point differential (i.e., margin of victory) but 9th in yardage differential. I'd argue that this indicates TCU has been dominating their opponents more than the score shows, although that is certainly up for debate.

Clemson darn near caught Baylor this week with that destruction and lopping-off of Al Golden's head. They bucked the regressive trend and jumped 5 points in their DUSHEE score. Alabama dropped from 2 to 6, Utah plummeted from 11 to 23, and Tech dropped out of the top 25, from 21 to 34.

Top and bottom performances

Top 3:

62.88 Clemson (58-567) @ Miami-Fl (0-146)

45.43 Oklahoma (63-617) vs. Texas Tech (27-436)

41.97 San Diego St. (48-429) vs. Utah St. (14-239)

Bottom 3:

-50.44 New Mexico St. (7-392) vs. Troy (52-482)

-43.82 Louisiana-Monroe (13-243) @ Idaho (27-489)

-42.83 Miami-Fl (0-146) vs. Clemson (58-567)

Miami fell from 48th to 70th. New Mexico State claimed the "Worst FBS Team in America" from cross-border rival UTEP after getting destroyed by 97th ranked Troy. And Utah State gets the rare distinction of being in the Top 3 list on back-to-back weeks, last week as a top performer in beating Boise, this week as a victim of San Diego State's top performance.

Strength of Schedule

The Strength of Schedule is calculated simply, by averaging the DUSHEE scores of that team's opponents for the season. Here are the DUSHEE calculated strengths of schedule for the Top 25:

Rank Team SOS SOS Rank

1 Baylor -2.09 82

2 Clemson 11.75 4

3 Mississippi 8.73 14

4 West Virginia 13.18 3

5 Oklahoma 6.37 23

6 Alabama 7.93 16

7 Notre Dame 10.10 8

8 USC 4.61 32

9 Ohio St. -3.37 96

10 LSU -0.22 65

11 Michigan 2.03 46

12 Appalachian State -6.83 111

13 Tennessee 15.99 1

14 Memphis 1.83 49

15 Iowa 0.99 54

16 Stanford 1.58 50

17 Mississippi St. 3.60 37

18 TCU -0.80 72

19 Florida 3.91 34

20 Houston -10.06 121

21 Boise St. -2.92 88

22 Wisconsin -2.24 83

23 Utah 4.46 33

24 Bowling Green -1.27 75

25 Oklahoma St. -2.56 85

The top 25 in SOS overall are:

Tenn 15.99 1

Mary 13.66 2

WVU 13.18 3

Clem 11.75 4

L'ville 11.60 5

Wash 11.03 6

Kan 10.75 7

ND 10.10 8

ISU 9.83 9

Tex 9.69 10

GaTech 9.60 11

BC 9.49 12

Uva 9.26 13

Miss 8.73 14

Vandy 7.95 15

Bama 7.93 16

A&M 7.87 17

Nwstern 7.41 18

BYU 7.32 19

KSU 7.21 20

Aub 6.77 21

MiaFl 6.60 22

OU 6.37 23

Ark 6.35 24

SMU 6.09 25

One thing that you may note, high strengths of schedule often reside with teams that are in the middle-to-bottom echelon of their conference. There is an intuitive reason for that; while the top teams get to play all (or most) of the bad teams in their conference, they don't have to play themselves, giving them an unbalanced schedule of the mediocre or bad teams relative to the good or great teams. That works the other way too. The bad teams don't have themselves on their schedule to drag their SoS down, but they have all or most of the good-to-great teams.

So note that you don't see Baylor, TCU, or Oklahoma State in the list of hardest Big XII-II schedules (although you do see OU!) but you do see West Virginia, Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas State.

You can also note that several of the teams that you see in the Top 25 that have 3 or more losses but are still in the DUSHEE top 25 (e.g., West Virginia, Tennessee) have had among the most difficult schedules. For the most part, those teams have lost to other highly ranked teams in close, competitive games. From a DUSHEE perspective, that is evidence that those teams are also really good teams that should be highly ranked, even if they get zeros when looking at the win-loss binary.

If you'll pardon the awkward analogy, the AP poll is like the American Electoral College way of determining presidents. If a candidate is really competitive in big, populated states, but winds up a few votes short, he/she gets no credit for how well he/she did in that state. This is kinda the way college football poll voters treat wins and losses. A really competitive, 1-point loss to a really good team is probably going to drop you below all other (Power 5) teams with fewer losses, even if many of those teams with fewer losses wouldn't have a good chance of getting the same result against that same opponent. That is the fallacy of the primacy of wins and losses. Everyone who watched college football last year knew that Florida State wasn't one of the top 4 teams. But they were the only undefeated one.

So the lesson here is that West Virginia might just be a pretty damn good team. In fact, DUSHEE would install them as touchdown favorites over the Frogs. Vegas totally does not agree, with TCU as 14-point favorites. I hope Vegas is right.

Conference Strength

SEC 10.06

B12 9.26

ACC 6.20

B10 5.38

P12 4.59

AAC -1.42

MAC -4.83

MWC -9.53

CUSA -11.71

SBC -14.21

Overall Rankings

Rank Team PD YD Score

1 Baylor 30.80 269.17 33.68

2 Clemson 30.45 266.24 33.30

3 Mississippi 23.18 234.13 26.89

4 West Virginia 24.81 211.19 26.85

5 Oklahoma 25.60 167.35 25.24

6 Alabama 23.01 201.35 25.17

7 Notre Dame 23.03 168.19 23.57

8 USC 23.84 118.60 21.68

9 Ohio St. 22.10 137.47 21.44

10 LSU 20.53 134.85 20.28

__________________________________________

11 Michigan 19.68 140.04 19.96

12 Appalachian State 18.36 146.01 19.37

13 Tennessee 19.27 111.17 18.27

14 Memphis 16.04 151.38 18.09

15 Iowa 16.71 122.74 17.14

16 Stanford 17.47 103.52 16.70

17 Mississippi St. 19.17 59.61 15.69

18 TCU 11.83 150.89 15.26

19 Florida 17.07 79.37 15.26

20 Houston 14.64 103.52 14.81

______________________________________________

21 Boise St. 11.34 146.09 14.69

22 Wisconsin 13.13 114.01 14.32

23 Utah 17.48 45.79 13.89

24 Bowling Green 10.62 131.22 13.49

25 Oklahoma St. 14.75 64.51 12.99

26 BYU 11.74 104.31 12.92

27 Texas A&M 14.21 70.36 12.91

28 Georgia Tech 12.10 95.83 12.75

29 Louisville 9.83 125.61 12.69

30 UCLA 10.00 104.20 11.75

_____________________________________________

31 Michigan St. 11.85 75.35 11.58

32 Toledo 12.68 52.94 11.04

33 North Carolina 12.83 43.99 10.70

34 Texas Tech 8.77 98.50 10.66

35 N.C. State 7.67 105.69 10.27

36 Florida St. 10.54 61.40 10.03

37 Arkansas 7.05 90.24 9.11

38 West. Kentucky 7.84 71.64 8.73

39 California 8.44 56.84 8.40

40 Georgia 6.96 62.22 7.68

____________________________________________

41 Cent. Michigan 6.29 63.91 7.31

42 Nebraska 7.61 45.62 7.30

43 Duke 7.92 40.28 7.24

44 Northwestern 7.70 37.78 6.98

45 Vanderbilt 2.82 103.96 6.96

46 Louisiana Tech 5.72 58.32 6.66

47 Navy 9.93 -5.45 6.35

48 Illinois 6.21 30.36 5.63

49 Temple 9.08 -18.37 5.16

50 Washington 8.86 -15.69 5.14

____________________________________________

51 Virginia Tech 6.30 15.14 4.94

52 Washington St. 2.27 62.94 4.59

53 Penn St. 6.49 2.65 4.45

54 Pittsburgh 4.53 27.45 4.36

55 Cincinnati 1.38 66.96 4.19

56 Arizona St. 4.83 16.06 4.01

57 East Carolina 3.54 13.60 3.03

58 Northern Illinois 3.13 11.69 2.66

59 Boston Coll. 1.75 30.02 2.63

60 Utah St. 4.71 -13.86 2.46

______________________________________________

61 Oregon 2.12 17.33 2.26

62 W. Michigan 1.59 23.29 2.20

63 Southern Miss -0.31 42.95 1.89

64 Arizona -0.12 28.82 1.33

65 Iowa St. -1.35 31.71 0.65

66 Middle Tenn. St. -1.77 36.83 0.62

67 Air Force -3.05 44.47 0.14

68 Texas 1.95 -27.85 -0.06

69 Massachusetts 0.93 -18.52 -0.29

70 Miami (FL) -0.37 -4.94 -0.49

____________________________________________

71 Tulsa -1.83 13.34 -0.57

72 Georgia Southern -0.80 -2.73 -0.67

73 Indiana 0.32 -24.49 -0.98

74 Auburn 0.84 -40.76 -1.43

75 San Diego St. -3.74 4.57 -2.27

76 Virginia -4.26 -4.55 -3.06

77 Kentucky -1.94 -45.95 -3.54

78 Buffalo -1.42 -53.34 -3.55

79 Kansas St. 0.27 -83.33 -3.89

80 Minnesota -6.03 1.50 -3.94

___________________________________________

81 Marshall 0.86 -96.49 -4.14

82 Missouri -2.62 -49.22 -4.15

83 South Florida -0.84 -75.45 -4.25

84 Maryland -4.52 -47.26 -5.32

85 Akron -7.86 -28.82 -6.65

86 Wyoming -11.75 14.98 -7.10

87 Colorado St. -8.04 -43.75 -7.50

88 SMU -10.08 -30.27 -8.20

89 South Carolina -6.21 -85.70 -8.32

90 Arkansas St. -9.75 -50.42 -8.96

____________________________________________

91 Wake Forest -8.53 -67.78 -9.00

92 Ohio -8.28 -73.82 -9.13

93 Syracuse -4.82 -129.21 -9.52

94 Connecticut -7.11 -100.55 -9.65

95 Florida Intl. -6.91 -122.20 -10.57

96 Rutgers -9.69 -103.86 -11.53

97 Troy -12.09 -71.82 -11.57

98 Purdue -10.12 -102.57 -11.76

99 Oregon St. -12.73 -68.77 -11.84

100 Ball St. -10.88 -107.55 -12.51

______________________________________________

101 Nevada -11.36 -116.38 -13.26

103 San Jose St. -14.58 -79.97 -13.63

104 Rice -16.05 -61.96 -13.73

105 UNLV -12.06 -121.44 -13.97

106 Army -13.54 -110.51 -14.43

107 LA Lafayette -18.77 -60.34 -15.46

108 UT-San Antonio -17.04 -111.44 -16.80

109 Texas St. -18.33 -125.19 -18.33

110 South Alabama -23.70 -62.11 -18.83

_____________________________________________-

111 Kent St. -19.39 -122.78 -18.92

112 Georgia State -22.17 -106.75 -19.99

113 Florida Atlantic -20.97 -126.38 -20.15

114 Old Dominion -19.89 -141.66 -20.18

115 East. Michigan -22.17 -146.20 -21.92

116 Tulane -21.86 -152.13 -22.01

117 Idaho -20.96 -165.76 -22.07

118 Colorado -21.70 -171.43 -22.84

119 New Mexico -20.57 -191.14 -23.05

120 Hawaii -21.86 -179.31 -23.33

_____________________________________________

121 UCF -20.29 -213.54 -23.95

122 North Texas -27.39 -157.88 -25.97

123 UNC-Charlotte -30.36 -125.00 -26.35

124 LA Monroe -24.71 -202.63 -26.37

125 Miami (OH) -29.07 -146.35 -26.53

126 Fresno St. -26.74 -199.77 -27.59

127 Kansas -26.46 -228.29 -28.79

128 UTEP -32.78 -211.72 -32.19

128 New Mexico St. -33.83 -221.42 -33.37

Conference Standings

Rank Team PD YD Score

AAC

14 Memphis 16.04 151.38 18.09

20 Houston 14.64 103.52 14.81

47 Navy 9.93 -5.45 6.35

49 Temple 9.08 -18.37 5.16

55 Cincinnati 1.38 66.96 4.19

57 East Carolina 3.54 13.60 3.03

71 Tulsa -1.83 13.34 -0.57

83 South Florida -0.84 -75.45 -4.25

88 SMU -10.08 -30.27 -8.20

94 Connecticut -7.11 -100.55 -9.65

116 Tulane -21.86 -152.13 -22.01

121 UCF -20.29 -213.54 -23.95

ACC

2 Clemson 30.45 266.24 33.30

28 Georgia Tech 12.10 95.83 12.75

29 Louisville 9.83 125.61 12.69

33 North Carolina 12.83 43.99 10.70

35 N.C. State 7.67 105.69 10.27

36 Florida St. 10.54 61.40 10.03

43 Duke 7.92 40.28 7.24

51 Virginia Tech 6.30 15.14 4.94

54 Pittsburgh 4.53 27.45 4.36

59 Boston Coll. 1.75 30.02 2.63

70 Miami (FL) -0.37 -4.94 -0.49

76 Virginia -4.26 -4.55 -3.06

91 Wake Forest -8.53 -67.78 -9.00

93 Syracuse -4.82 -129.21 -9.52

B1G

9 Ohio St. 22.10 137.47 21.44

11 Michigan 19.68 140.04 19.96

15 Iowa 16.71 122.74 17.14

22 Wisconsin 13.13 114.01 14.32

31 Michigan St. 11.85 75.35 11.58

42 Nebraska 7.61 45.62 7.30

44 Northwestern 7.70 37.78 6.98

48 Illinois 6.21 30.36 5.63

53 Penn St. 6.49 2.65 4.45

73 Indiana 0.32 -24.49 -0.98

80 Minnesota -6.03 1.50 -3.94

84 Maryland -4.52 -47.26 -5.32

96 Rutgers -9.69 -103.86 -11.53

98 Purdue -10.12 -102.57 -11.76

BXII-II

1 Baylor 30.80 269.17 33.68

4 West Virginia 24.81 211.19 26.85

5 Oklahoma 25.60 167.35 25.24

18 TCU 11.83 150.89 15.26

25 Oklahoma St. 14.75 64.51 12.99

34 Texas Tech 8.77 98.50 10.66

65 Iowa St. -1.35 31.71 0.65

68 Texas 1.95 -27.85 -0.06

79 Kansas St. 0.27 -83.33 -3.89

127 Kansas -26.46 -228.29 -28.79

CUSA

38 West. Kentucky 7.84 71.64 8.73

46 Louisiana Tech 5.72 58.32 6.66

63 Southern Miss -0.31 42.95 1.89

66 Middle Tenn. St. -1.77 36.83 0.62

81 Marshall 0.86 -96.49 -4.14

95 Florida Intl. -6.91 -122.20 -10.57

104 Rice -16.05 -61.96 -13.73

108 UT-San Antonio -17.04 -111.44 -16.80

113 Florida Atlantic -20.97 -126.38 -20.15

114 Old Dominion -19.89 -141.66 -20.18

122 North Texas -27.39 -157.88 -25.97

123 UNC-Charlotte -30.36 -125.00 -26.35

128 UTEP -32.78 -211.72 -32.19

Indies

7 Notre Dame 23.03 168.19 23.57

26 BYU 11.74 104.31 12.92

106 Army -13.54 -110.51 -14.43

MAC

24 Bowling Green 10.62 131.22 13.49

32 Toledo 12.68 52.94 11.04

41 Cent. Michigan 6.29 63.91 7.31

58 Northern Illinois 3.13 11.69 2.66

62 W. Michigan 1.59 23.29 2.20

69 Massachusetts 0.93 -18.52 -0.29

78 Buffalo -1.42 -53.34 -3.55

85 Akron -7.86 -28.82 -6.65

92 Ohio -8.28 -73.82 -9.13

100 Ball St. -10.88 -107.55 -12.51

111 Kent St. -19.39 -122.78 -18.92

115 East. Michigan -22.17 -146.20 -21.92

125 Miami (OH) -29.07 -146.35 -26.53

MWC

21 Boise St. 11.34 146.09 14.69

60 Utah St. 4.71 -13.86 2.46

67 Air Force -3.05 44.47 0.14

75 San Diego St. -3.74 4.57 -2.27

86 Wyoming -11.75 14.98 -7.10

87 Colorado St. -8.04 -43.75 -7.50

101 Nevada -11.36 -116.38 -13.26

103 San Jose St. -14.58 -79.97 -13.63

105 UNLV -12.06 -121.44 -13.97

119 New Mexico -20.57 -191.14 -23.05

120 Hawaii -21.86 -179.31 -23.33

126 Fresno St. -26.74 -199.77 -27.59

P12

8 USC 23.84 118.60 21.68

16 Stanford 17.47 103.52 16.70

23 Utah 17.48 45.79 13.89

30 UCLA 10.00 104.20 11.75

39 California 8.44 56.84 8.40

50 Washington 8.86 -15.69 5.14

52 Washington St. 2.27 62.94 4.59

56 Arizona St. 4.83 16.06 4.01

61 Oregon 2.12 17.33 2.26

64 Arizona -0.12 28.82 1.33

99 Oregon St. -12.73 -68.77 -11.84

118 Colorado -21.70 -171.43 -22.84

SBC

12 Appalachian State 18.36 146.01 19.37

72 Georgia Southern -0.80 -2.73 -0.67

90 Arkansas St. -9.75 -50.42 -8.96

97 Troy -12.09 -71.82 -11.57

107 LA Lafayette -18.77 -60.34 -15.46

109 Texas St. -18.33 -125.19 -18.33

110 South Alabama -23.70 -62.11 -18.83

112 Georgia State -22.17 -106.75 -19.99

117 Idaho -20.96 -165.76 -22.07

124 LA Monroe -24.71 -202.63 -26.37

128 New Mexico St. -33.83 -221.42 -33.37

SEC

3 Mississippi 23.18 234.13 26.89

6 Alabama 23.01 201.35 25.17

10 LSU 20.53 134.85 20.28

13 Tennessee 19.27 111.17 18.27

17 Mississippi St. 19.17 59.61 15.69

19 Florida 17.07 79.37 15.26

27 Texas A&M 14.21 70.36 12.91

37 Arkansas 7.05 90.24 9.11

40 Georgia 6.96 62.22 7.68

45 Vanderbilt 2.82 103.96 6.96

74 Auburn 0.84 -40.76 -1.43

77 Kentucky -1.94 -45.95 -3.54

82 Missouri -2.62 -49.22 -4.15

89 South Carolina -6.21 -85.70 -8.32



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