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Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

Duquesne Frog

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Once again, the Frogs were crushed by the weak performances of its prior opponents. Minnesota was blown out at home by Nebraska, Texas Tech struggled to beat an awful Kansas team, and most significantly, the team that took us to the brink last week was beat by 55 at home by Oklahoma. The last one, in particular, forced the dive that the Frogs took in DUSHEE this week, as you can see in the comparison of TCU's week-by-week DUSHEE scores as they stood after last week's games compared to this week:

After week 6:

Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU

PD: 8.00 3.00 19.75 | 39.40 17.33

YD: 186.00 101.75 282.75 | 197.00 143.67

Score: 14.81 7.18 27.57 | 36.30 18.87

After week 7:

Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU

PD: 3.83 3.00 18.40 | 39.40 1.00 16.25

YD: 157.33 101.75 276.60 | 197.00 32.75 148.25

Score: 10.40 7.07 26.05 | 36.08 2.30 18.22

DUSHEE's evaluation of the Minnesota game fell by 4.5 points, the Tech game dropped by 1.5 points ... but that Kansas State game went from a solid 18.9 points better than average performance to a 2.3 -- Kansas State's performance cost the Frogs 16.6 points in their DUSHEE score. TCU's overall DUSHEE score fell from 20.95 to 16.69, dropping them from 9th to 18th in this week's poll.

The drop should be temporary, as the Frogs have yet to play OU or KU and it seems unlikely that Kansas State will finish out the season playing as badly as they did against Oklahoma. That game, I think, was an anomaly that has disproportionately affected the Frogs (and all of K-State's other opponents so far this year) this week. Assuming the Frogs blow out Kansas at home and play competitively against the rest of their tough schedule (win or lose), I suspect 18 will be the lowest the Frogs see this year.

Next Opponent: West Virginia

Speaking of statistical anomalies, TCU's next opponent is becoming this year's DUSHEE WTF team; the 3-3 Mountaineers (and 2-3 in games DUSHEE looks at) are ranked 4th in this week's DUSHEE poll.

Why? WVU's lofty ranking is almost exclusively due to their week 1 44-0 blowout of Georgia Southern, as you can see in their week-to-week scores:

WVU:

Opp: GaSo Mary OU | OkSt Bay

PD: 69.00 26.00 1.40 | 10.75 19.75

YD: 514.25 117.50 126.40 | 204.25 118.25

Score: 71.63 23.19 7.23 | 17.34 19.06

Recall that Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt last year (though they were not allowed to represent the conference as champion in a bowl in their first year as FBS) and is currently sitting at 5-1, having blown out all of their other (admittedly weak, except for Western Michigan) opponents. Since Ga.So. has blown out everyone else they've played, WVU's point and yardage differentials for that game are sky high. If Georgia Southern plays a few more competitive games during the second half (and DUSHEE would have the Eagles a sizeable underdog to Appalachian State), WVU's score against them will go down. Plus, at this point in the season, the Ga. So. game is 20% of WVU's DUSHEE score. It will only account for 8% by season's end. WVU's high ranking is a case study in the danger of low sample sizes.

WVU has also benefitted by not getting blown out by Baylor as badly as Baylor has blown out everybody else. Take out the Georgia Southern game and WVU's DUSHEE score is almost exactly the same as TCU's.

Conference Strength

This week, the SEC finally eeked past the Big XII-II to claim the top conference spot, after closing the gap every week prior. A big gap still exists between the SEC and B12 and the rest of the "Power 5" and DUSHEE, for the second year in a row, is extremely underwhelmed by the Pac 12, ranking them at the bottom.

SEC 11.05

B12 10.46

ACC 6.58

B10 5.83

P12 5.49

AAC -1.80

MAC -5.73

MWC -10.49

CUSA -12.87

SBC -16.38

Week 7 Best and Worst Performances

This is the first week this year where both sides of the same game appear, with OU's performance earning the most DUSHEE points and the Kansas State performance earning the second lowest.

Top 3:

60.99 Oklahoma (55-568) vs. Kansas St. (0-111)

44.09 Baylor (62-693) vs. WVU (38-471)

43.72 Utah St. (56-334) vs. Boise (26-333)

Bottom 3:

-49.62 Ohio (14-354) vs. Western Michigan (49-567)

-44.69 Kansas State (0-111) vs. Oklahoma (55-568)

-40.24 UNLV (28-299) vs. Fresno (31-410)

Overall Rankings

Rank Team PD YD Score

1 Baylor 38.38 324.61 41.76

2 Alabama 26.20 236.38 29.25

3 Clemson 24.40 237.29 28.09

4 West Virginia 25.38 216.13 27.69

5 Mississippi 21.92 218.37 25.49

6 Notre Dame 21.87 170.42 23.07

7 Oklahoma 22.83 153.22 22.85

8 USC 21.29 120.08 20.18

9 Michigan 19.54 127.72 19.39

10 Ohio St. 19.00 120.79 18.69

____________________________________________

11 Utah 23.19 57.70 18.34

12 Iowa 17.63 129.08 18.18

13 Tennessee 18.81 106.91 17.87

14 LSU 16.33 127.01 17.22

15 Florida 19.15 85.51 17.03

16 Boise St. 13.99 152.43 16.92

17 Stanford 18.10 95.85 16.84

18 TCU 13.65 152.28 16.69

19 Texas A&M 17.13 105.09 16.66

20 Appalachian State 14.93 114.46 15.66

______________________________________________

21 Texas Tech 13.26 130.28 15.33

22 North Carolina 17.69 65.95 15.08

23 Memphis 12.45 124.10 14.48

24 Navy 15.80 69.36 13.99

25 Wisconsin 11.70 112.64 13.41

26 Florida St. 12.82 94.57 13.26

27 BYU 12.09 103.00 13.19

28 Arkansas 9.23 127.11 12.49

29 Mississippi St. 15.12 44.75 12.31

30 California 12.46 78.15 12.20

______________________________________________

31 Louisville 11.20 76.64 11.29

32 Toledo 13.43 43.24 11.11

33 Utah St. 14.58 27.72 11.10

34 Oklahoma St. 13.16 45.18 11.02

35 Washington 13.74 33.85 10.85

36 Nebraska 11.10 61.36 10.46

37 West. Kentucky 10.16 63.62 9.95

38 UCLA 8.12 88.13 9.81

39 Georgia Tech 9.33 70.74 9.75

40 Michigan St. 9.68 58.73 9.38

_________________________________________________

41 Houston 9.32 62.31 9.32

42 Penn St. 9.95 48.66 9.06

43 Bowling Green 5.99 94.77 8.71

44 Vanderbilt 4.80 110.03 8.68

45 Illinois 9.32 42.16 8.31

46 Duke 8.38 53.97 8.28

47 Georgia 6.89 65.75 7.87

48 Miami (FL) 8.62 41.25 7.80

49 Northwestern 7.74 49.83 7.64

50 Boston Coll. 3.03 99.59 6.98

_____________________________________________

51 N.C. State 5.47 65.58 6.91

52 Pittsburgh 5.55 43.26 5.86

53 Temple 9.53 -14.47 5.63

54 Cent. Michigan 5.06 43.94 5.57

55 Arizona St. 6.17 29.10 5.56

56 Virginia Tech 7.19 8.44 5.21

57 Washington St. 3.88 47.29 4.94

58 Middle Tenn. St. 3.66 45.47 4.71

59 W. Michigan 4.41 31.64 4.51

60 Louisiana Tech 2.17 59.18 4.40

____________________________________________

61 Indiana 4.71 3.45 3.31

62 Oregon 2.91 18.43 2.86

63 East Carolina 3.26 -0.19 2.16

64 Cincinnati -0.74 31.76 1.09

65 Northern Illinois 0.47 1.21 0.37

66 Tulsa -1.60 22.16 0.04

67 Massachusetts -0.73 9.11 -0.04

68 Arizona -2.71 34.04 -0.11

69 Kentucky 1.23 -24.86 -0.42

70 Missouri 0.01 -24.50 -1.21

_____________________________________________

71 Kansas St. 2.41 -61.16 -1.44

72 Marshall 4.94 -99.98 -1.69

73 Air Force -5.44 37.95 -1.74

74 Texas -0.32 -37.42 -2.08

75 Iowa St. -3.46 2.75 -2.17

76 Auburn 1.83 -71.20 -2.33

77 Minnesota -4.64 8.64 -2.66

78 Southern Miss -5.70 3.39 -3.63

79 Georgia Southern -4.14 -22.63 -3.89

80 South Florida -2.22 -62.96 -4.62

_____________________________________________

81 Virginia -6.79 -15.13 -5.28

82 Connecticut -4.02 -52.38 -5.29

83 South Carolina -4.16 -69.85 -6.26

84 SMU -7.05 -38.06 -6.60

85 Akron -8.07 -39.51 -7.35

86 Colorado St. -8.31 -45.54 -7.81

87 Wake Forest -8.63 -52.50 -8.37

88 Wyoming -14.12 10.08 -8.91

89 Buffalo -8.94 -64.65 -9.18

90 Rutgers -6.05 -105.30 -9.28

_____________________________________________

91 San Diego St. -12.30 -33.83 -9.89

92 Ohio -6.94 -109.29 -10.08

93 Army -9.50 -85.90 -10.61

94 Maryland -8.95 -96.80 -10.79

95 Florida Intl. -9.53 -107.13 -11.69

96 Oregon St. -12.02 -85.18 -12.26

97 Arkansas St. -13.40 -69.43 -12.39

98 Nevada -11.32 -97.69 -12.41

99 Syracuse -7.95 -148.55 -12.70

100 Purdue -11.59 -115.87 -13.50

_______________________________________________

101 Ball St. -12.26 -111.24 -13.71

103 Kent St. -16.43 -94.49 -15.66

104 Rice -18.87 -71.38 -16.14

105 UNLV -14.10 -138.93 -16.32

106 Florida Atlantic -17.82 -104.12 -17.07

107 LA Lafayette -21.38 -76.72 -18.08

108 South Alabama -24.15 -60.27 -19.11

109 Troy -21.44 -99.32 -19.24

110 Georgia State -21.53 -106.81 -19.68

_______________________________________________

111 San Jose St. -20.43 -127.73 -19.98

112 UT-San Antonio -20.83 -125.62 -20.15

113 Old Dominion -17.95 -170.62 -20.47

114 LA Monroe -20.71 -143.06 -20.94

115 East. Michigan -22.72 -145.34 -22.39

116 Colorado -23.20 -157.53 -23.32

117 New Mexico -20.97 -192.87 -23.59

118 Texas St. -25.34 -149.21 -24.33

119 UCF -20.29 -229.90 -24.98

120 Kansas -22.34 -204.11 -25.06

______________________________________________

121 Hawaii -24.44 -192.53 -25.89

122 UNC-Charlotte -29.18 -129.47 -25.90

123 Miami (OH) -28.54 -146.36 -26.32

124 Idaho -24.23 -207.35 -26.49

125 Tulane -24.81 -205.28 -26.77

126 Fresno St. -25.86 -204.26 -27.42

127 North Texas -32.89 -183.30 -31.06

128 New Mexico St. -30.08 -233.61 -31.69

128 UTEP -39.37 -246.95 -38.55

By Conference:

Rank Team PD YD Score

AAC

23 Memphis 12.45 124.10 14.48

24 Navy 15.80 69.36 13.99

41 Houston 9.32 62.31 9.32

53 Temple 9.53 -14.47 5.63

63 East Carolina 3.26 -0.19 2.16

64 Cincinnati -0.74 31.76 1.09

66 Tulsa -1.60 22.16 0.04

80 South Florida -2.22 -62.96 -4.62

82 Connecticut -4.02 -52.38 -5.29

84 SMU -7.05 -38.06 -6.60

119 UCF -20.29 -229.90 -24.98

125 Tulane -24.81 -205.28 -26.77

ACC

3 Clemson 24.40 237.29 28.09

22 North Carolina 17.69 65.95 15.08

26 Florida St. 12.82 94.57 13.26

31 Louisville 11.20 76.64 11.29

39 Georgia Tech 9.33 70.74 9.75

46 Duke 8.38 53.97 8.28

48 Miami (FL) 8.62 41.25 7.80

50 Boston Coll. 3.03 99.59 6.98

51 N.C. State 5.47 65.58 6.91

52 Pittsburgh 5.55 43.26 5.86

56 Virginia Tech 7.19 8.44 5.21

81 Virginia -6.79 -15.13 -5.28

87 Wake Forest -8.63 -52.50 -8.37

99 Syracuse -7.95 -148.55 -12.70

B1G

9 Michigan 19.54 127.72 19.39

10 Ohio St. 19.00 120.79 18.69

12 Iowa 17.63 129.08 18.18

25 Wisconsin 11.70 112.64 13.41

36 Nebraska 11.10 61.36 10.46

40 Michigan St. 9.68 58.73 9.38

42 Penn St. 9.95 48.66 9.06

45 Illinois 9.32 42.16 8.31

49 Northwestern 7.74 49.83 7.64

61 Indiana 4.71 3.45 3.31

77 Minnesota -4.64 8.64 -2.66

90 Rutgers -6.05 -105.30 -9.28

94 Maryland -8.95 -96.80 -10.79

100 Purdue -11.59 -115.87 -13.50

BXII-II

1 Baylor 38.38 324.61 41.76

4 West Virginia 25.38 216.13 27.69

7 Oklahoma 22.83 153.22 22.85

18 TCU 13.65 152.28 16.69

21 Texas Tech 13.26 130.28 15.33

34 Oklahoma St. 13.16 45.18 11.02

71 Kansas St. 2.41 -61.16 -1.44

74 Texas -0.32 -37.42 -2.08

75 Iowa St. -3.46 2.75 -2.17

120 Kansas -22.34 -204.11 -25.06

CUSA

37 West. Kentucky 10.16 63.62 9.95

58 Middle Tenn. St. 3.66 45.47 4.71

60 Louisiana Tech 2.17 59.18 4.40

72 Marshall 4.94 -99.98 -1.69

78 Southern Miss -5.70 3.39 -3.63

95 Florida Intl. -9.53 -107.13 -11.69

104 Rice -18.87 -71.38 -16.14

106 Florida Atlantic -17.82 -104.12 -17.07

112 UT-San Antonio -20.83 -125.62 -20.15

113 Old Dominion -17.95 -170.62 -20.47

122 UNC-Charlotte -29.18 -129.47 -25.90

127 North Texas -32.89 -183.30 -31.06

128 UTEP -39.37 -246.95 -38.55

Indies

6 Notre Dame 21.87 170.42 23.07

27 BYU 12.09 103.00 13.19

93 Army -9.50 -85.90 -10.61

MAC

32 Toledo 13.43 43.24 11.11

43 Bowling Green 5.99 94.77 8.71

54 Cent. Michigan 5.06 43.94 5.57

59 W. Michigan 4.41 31.64 4.51

65 Northern Illinois 0.47 1.21 0.37

67 Massachusetts -0.73 9.11 -0.04

85 Akron -8.07 -39.51 -7.35

89 Buffalo -8.94 -64.65 -9.18

92 Ohio -6.94 -109.29 -10.08

101 Ball St. -12.26 -111.24 -13.71

103 Kent St. -16.43 -94.49 -15.66

115 East. Michigan -22.72 -145.34 -22.39

123 Miami (OH) -28.54 -146.36 -26.32

MWC

16 Boise St. 13.99 152.43 16.92

33 Utah St. 14.58 27.72 11.10

73 Air Force -5.44 37.95 -1.74

86 Colorado St. -8.31 -45.54 -7.81

88 Wyoming -14.12 10.08 -8.91

91 San Diego St. -12.30 -33.83 -9.89

98 Nevada -11.32 -97.69 -12.41

105 UNLV -14.10 -138.93 -16.32

111 San Jose St. -20.43 -127.73 -19.98

117 New Mexico -20.97 -192.87 -23.59

121 Hawaii -24.44 -192.53 -25.89

126 Fresno St. -25.86 -204.26 -27.42

P12

8 USC 21.29 120.08 20.18

11 Utah 23.19 57.70 18.34

17 Stanford 18.10 95.85 16.84

30 California 12.46 78.15 12.20

35 Washington 13.74 33.85 10.85

38 UCLA 8.12 88.13 9.81

55 Arizona St. 6.17 29.10 5.56

57 Washington St. 3.88 47.29 4.94

62 Oregon 2.91 18.43 2.86

68 Arizona -2.71 34.04 -0.11

96 Oregon St. -12.02 -85.18 -12.26

116 Colorado -23.20 -157.53 -23.32

SBC

20 Appalachian State 14.93 114.46 15.66

79 Georgia Southern -4.14 -22.63 -3.89

97 Arkansas St. -13.40 -69.43 -12.39

107 LA Lafayette -21.38 -76.72 -18.08

108 South Alabama -24.15 -60.27 -19.11

109 Troy -21.44 -99.32 -19.24

110 Georgia State -21.53 -106.81 -19.68

114 LA Monroe -20.71 -143.06 -20.94

118 Texas St. -25.34 -149.21 -24.33

124 Idaho -24.23 -207.35 -26.49

128 New Mexico St. -30.08 -233.61 -31.69

SEC

2 Alabama 26.20 236.38 29.25

5 Mississippi 21.92 218.37 25.49

13 Tennessee 18.81 106.91 17.87

14 LSU 16.33 127.01 17.22

15 Florida 19.15 85.51 17.03

19 Texas A&M 17.13 105.09 16.66

28 Arkansas 9.23 127.11 12.49

29 Mississippi St. 15.12 44.75 12.31

44 Vanderbilt 4.80 110.03 8.68

47 Georgia 6.89 65.75 7.87

69 Kentucky 1.23 -24.86 -0.42

70 Missouri 0.01 -24.50 -1.21

76 Auburn 1.83 -71.20 -2.33

83 South Carolina -4.16 -69.85 -6.26



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