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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

Once again, the Frogs were crushed by the weak performances of its prior opponents. Minnesota was blown out at home by Nebraska, Texas Tech struggled to beat an awful Kansas team, and most significantly, the team that took us to the brink last week was beat by 55 at home by Oklahoma. The last one, in particular, forced the dive that the Frogs took in DUSHEE this week, as you can see in the comparison of TCU's week-by-week DUSHEE scores as they stood after last week's games compared to this week:

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

The Frogs move back up to 9th in this week's rankings. Some of you may wonder, "What are you smoking, DUSHEE? We blow out Texas and drop 7 spots and then eek past Kansas State and go back up?" A look at the numbers reveals that a number of factors are at play. First, teams that were above the Frogs dropped, namely Oklahoma and USC. Oklahoma's loss to Texas dropped their DUSHEE score 14 points, meaning they are evaluated to be two touchdowns worse this week than they were evaluated to be last we

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE

To explain what happened to TCU in this week's poll, I'll ask all of you to go back into the repressed memories of the days after the Iowa State game last season and remember what happened prior to the release of the playoff seedings. Remember that coincident to our destruction of a mediocre-to-poor conference opponent, all of our best resume bullets took a hit: Oklahoma lost, Kansas State lost, Minnesota had lost the week before to a team that got destroyed by Ohio State that week. Things outsi

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Inaugural 2015 DUSHEE Rankings

Well, here it is, folks. This first ranking comes out with the usual caveat: it's early. Many of the teams are ranked on the basis of two games played against FBS competition, including the top 2 teams in the ranking, conference mates Baylor and West Virginia. In fact, this may be the first time that every team has emerged past the 2 FBS opponents threshold by week 4 since I started doing this. Usually there is a straggler or two with more than one bye or FCS opponent in the early part of the se

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Musings Going into the 2015 Season

I've been struggling to come up with some blog ideas to pass the time until the beathlessly-anticipated first DUSHEE ranking does come out, marking the official beginning of college football season. This morning, the Google News aggregator passed this article from the Detroit News before my eyes, the audaciously named "Top three things to know about college football analytics" by one Ed Feng, a fellow engineer. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2015/09/18/feng-top-three-things-to-

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

FINAL 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Ohio St. 29.65 213.64 30.20 2 TCU 29.18 186.04 28.54 3 Alabama 25.58 194.32 26.54 4 Michigan St. 24.08 207.86 26.21 5 Oregon 26.33 153.90 25.07 6 Marshall 23.66 171.29 24.14 7 Baylor 21.34 199.49 23.97 8 Georgia 23.78 130.48 22.23 9 Auburn 18.64 162.62 20.37 10 Mississippi 20.30 126.72 19.72 ______________________________________ 11 Wisconsin 14.54 182.51 18.61 12 Mississippi St. 18.12 107.03 17.31 13 Georgia Tech 18.20 104.56 17.24 14 Arkans

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE beat Vegas! (barely)

A few have asked how DUSHEE did picking the bowl games this year and the answer is a mixed bag. Historically, DUSHEE has done very well picking bowl winners while the regular season was more sketchy. (Since most of the documentation of prior DUSHEE success was cataloged on kf.c, you'll have to take my word for it or see if you can find it over there.) This year, DUSHEE wasn't really much better in the bowls than it was in the regular season, which is to say, not that great. Using the same ESPN

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE's Take on the CFP, TCU, and the Peach Bowl

In case you hadn't stewed on the outcome of the CFP enough, here comes DUSHEE to try and shed at least a little light on what happened to the Frogs and college football in general over the last few weeks. First, here are the critical DUSHEE numbers for each of the top 6 in the CFP final rankings for each FBS game played: Alabama Opp: WVU FAU USM| Fla Miss Ark | A&M Tenn LSU | MissSt Aub Mizz PD: 14.00 33.36 23.70 | 29.22 8.50 8.60 | 66.40 16.30 15.50 | 23.90 21.40 36.91 YD: 247.40 413.4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season (sorta) DUSHEE Ranking

Well, the college football committee wasn't the only entity impressed by Ohio State's beatdown of Wisco. Remember when Alabama's thrashing of A&M was a historically big DUSHEE score? Much like Perrine's eclipsing Gordon's rushing record (or was it vice versa?) Ohio State's win eclipsed Alabama's(66.40 now) with a PD of 78.55. The Buckeyes were 11 TD's better against Wisconsin than the average opponent was. And with that, Ohio State lept Alabama into first. The Frogs climb to 3rd, Oregon

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 14 DUSHEE

A lot of movement, although not at number 1. Much like the Frogs after Kansas, Baylor fell to 8 after struggling against Tech. DUSHEE loves Michigan State and Marshall, despite their loss, still remains high. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 23.72 193.23 25.16 2 Michigan St. 22.15 193.83 24.14 3 Ohio St. 22.86 170.19 23.47 4 TCU 24.21 136.86 22.76 5 Wisconsin 19.25 198.05 22.41 6 Marshall 20.93 156.93 21.54 7 Mississippi 21.89 141.68 21.44 8 Baylor 19.50 174.16 21.42 9 Orego

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE

Thankfully, Baylor's performance against OkieSt was just mediocre enough to drop them from the top spot. They are now 2nd behind Alabama. DUSHEE continues to really love the B1G and Marshall. TCU climbs one spot due to the precipitous fall of Ole Miss out of the top 10. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 24.68 219.53 27.00 2 Baylor 23.01 219.04 25.86 3 Ohio St. 23.60 178.72 24.32 4 Michigan St. 21.60 198.06 23.92 5 Marshall 22.65 173.65 23.44 6 Wisconsin 19.86 194.77 22.59 7 TCU

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

DUSHEE was also unimpressed with the Frogs close call in Lawrence, dropping TCU from 2nd to 8th in this week's ranking. DUSHEE was also quite impressed with Baylor's performance this week against Bye, moving them up from 4th to 1st ... that's right, DUSHEE now has Baylor as the #1 team in the land. Lest any of you accuse me of instituting personal bias in the DUSHEE model. So how did this happen? Well, Baylor gained a point during the bye, meaning that the had net movement in the DUSHEE Scores

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 Rankings

For those of you clamoring for two Big 12 teams in the college football playoffs, DUSHEE has your back. The Frogs lept three spots to 2 and Baylor is up 4 spots to 4th. Ohio State, despite that still really ugly loss to Virginia Tech early in the season has dominated the B1G into 3rd. Frogs now lead the country in point differential. Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama 24.80 247.51 28.60 2 TCU 27.68 180.47 27.25 3 Ohio St. 26.10 192.62 26.79 4 Baylor 23.30 228.47 26.67 5 Auburn 25.26 188.30 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 10

Highlights: Frogs stand pat at 5. Mississippi State falls another spot and Michigan State climbs up to 3. Tech is 100th ... 1 Alabama 26.48 271.34 30.86 2 Auburn 29.80 200.97 29.65 3 Michigan St. 24.26 220.73 26.92 4 Mississippi 27.61 172.12 26.78 5 TCU 26.33 169.87 25.82 6 Ohio St. 24.95 184.29 25.60 7 Oklahoma 26.69 149.90 25.09 8 Baylor 18.59 214.09 22.81 9 Mississippi St. 24.93 126.64 22.78 10 Nebraska 21.26 151.76 21.56 _______________________________________ 11 Mars

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 9

DUSHEE was impressed by TCU this week; impressed enough to catapult the Frogs into 3rd in the new DUSHEE poll. The Frogs earned a 47.0 score for the game (46.8 PD, 325.5 YD), eeking out Wisconsin's beatdown of Maryland (45.1 Score, 48.2 PD, 268 YD) for the biggest score of the week. DUSHEE also punished Mississippi State more for winning a close game against Kentucky than it punished Mississippi for their close loss to LSU, dropping the Rebels only one spot to 4th while dropping the Cowbells 4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Case for Marshall

As we've discussed before, every year there are one or two teams that DUSHEE seems to think way more highly of than almost anybody else. I lovingly call this team the DUSHEE WTF team. This year's WTF team appears to be the Thundering Herd. Not that Marhsall is completely disrespected. They are 23rd and 22nd in the AP and Coaches' Polls. The Massey Composite Index has Marshall at 18 and includes a handful of computer polls that place Marshall even higher than DUSHEE's 8th. But the human polls h

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE Rankings

Some pretty big swings in the rankings this week as Alabama, propelled by certainly the biggest PD of this season and probably one of the biggest since I've been doing this, is now first in the rankings. Alabama's PD against A&M was 72.2 and the next highest PD on the season has been Auburn's 55.2 against LSU in week 6. I haven't had a chance to go back and see what the highest PD's in DUSHEE history have been, but I'd be surprised if 72.2 is not the highest. Alabama's YD of 561 against A&am

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

DUSHEE went pretty easy on us, dropping us down to 10. Baylor now leads the country in Yardage Differential, coming in 3rd overall. Auburn had a big enough statistical lead that it remains 1 despite losing to now #2 MissSt. Marshall creeps up another spot ... if I get some time this week I'm want to focus on their performance. And Eastern Mich. almost pulled itself out of the cellar with their win but is still barely behind SMU for worst team in the country. Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Auburn

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Auburn 42.88 297.20 43.00 2 Alabama 27.41 381.17 36.76 3 Oklahoma 33.75 203.80 32.38 4 Mississippi 29.19 254.13 31.78 5 Mississippi St. 32.15 177.70 30.05 6 Nebraska 24.69 219.84 27.12 7 TCU 29.06 154.03 26.84 8 Marshall 26.88 179.98 26.64 9 Ohio St. 24.76 172.54 24.87 10 Baylor 21.35 207.63 24.31 _______________________________________________ 11 Notre Dame 22.49 177.95 23.62 12 Stanford 24.17 150.79 23.42 13 LSU 24.08 139.02 22.80 14 Michig

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Upon issuing this first ranking of the season, I'll proffer the same disclaimer that I did last season ... it's early. Really early. TCU has only played two games that factor into the ranking (Samford is ignored as an FCS). There's not a ton of data yet. So after week 5, DUSHEE is a big fan of the SEC. I know. It doesn't make me any happier than you. DUSHEE has the average SEC team 6 points better than the average Big 12 team, the second highest ranked conference. DUSHEE has the Big 12 just a s

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Changes to the 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Before I post the first week of DUSHEE rankings, I want to discuss some small changes in the methodology. I can hear what some of you are thinking. "Gasp!" you say. "You have taken the venerated formula that is DUSHEE and changed it? What right do you have?!?!" I know. But here at DUSHEE headquarters, we strive for perfection. What I've changed is relatively minor, and will make the "Score" for each team more useful. With the change, the DUSHEE score can be used not only to judge relative val

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Count of Monte Carlo

I've never been to Monte Carlo. But I kinda like the music. Monte Carlo is the stuff of James Bond and European royalty. I don't want to be presumptuous, but most of you reading probably will never go to Monte Carlo. But I'm here to show you how you can bring all the intrigue and prestige of Monte Carlo to your mother's basement or wherever it is you spend your free time playing around with sports statistics on your computer. Monte Carlo simulations have a wide applicability in science and eng

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE Rankings

Some shuffling this week, although not as much as you might expect. At this point in the season, each team has played 8-10 games against FBS competition, so even a big loss (e.g. Baylor to Okie St) doesn't dramatically swing teams, particularly teams at the top and bottom of the poll because the teams are more sparsely populated. There can still be a lot of movement in the middle of the poll because that's where the lion's share of teams are. But it was enough to allow Florida State to pass Bay

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 DUSHEE Rankings

Forgot to post these last week ... 1 Baylor 42.77 361.89 99.62 2 Florida St. 43.01 255.60 90.31 3 Alabama 30.10 188.49 64.08 4 Ohio St. 26.02 202.51 59.00 5 Wisconsin 23.81 201.08 55.42 6 Oregon 25.55 170.33 55.34 7 Louisville 19.72 175.89 46.75 8 Texas A&M 21.30 142.92 46.22 9 Arizona St. 18.91 155.83 43.67 10 Clemson 19.44 141.81 43.22 11 Stanford 18.54 100.86 38.07 12 BYU 14.98 157.32 37.69 13 Missouri 19.79 71.22 37.32 14 LSU 15.63 101.20 33.58 15 South Carolina 13.48 128.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE Ratings

Some shuffling in the top 10 as Oregon falls to 5 and Stanford climbs to 9. I promised some more commentary last week on which I did not deliver, so I'll try to touch some of those subjects this week ... 1 Baylor 44.27 365.45 100.00 2 Florida St. 42.12 256.35 86.90 3 Alabama 31.96 176.02 64.26 4 Ohio St. 26.69 209.70 59.34 5 Oregon 25.87 190.07 56.31 6 Louisville 21.52 182.47 49.05 7 Wisconsin 20.83 179.81 47.76 8 Texas A&M 20.15 133.68 42.57 9 Stanford 21.28 112.20 42.34 10 Arizo

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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