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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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Week 13 DUSHEE

Thankfully, Baylor's performance against OkieSt was just mediocre enough to drop them from the top spot. They are now 2nd behind Alabama. DUSHEE continues to really love the B1G and Marshall. TCU climbs one spot due to the precipitous fall of Ole Miss out of the top 10. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 24.68 219.53 27.00 2 Baylor 23.01 219.04 25.86 3 Ohio St. 23.60 178.72 24.32 4 Michigan St. 21.60 198.06 23.92 5 Marshall 22.65 173.65 23.44 6 Wisconsin 19.86 194.77 22.59 7 TCU

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

DUSHEE was also unimpressed with the Frogs close call in Lawrence, dropping TCU from 2nd to 8th in this week's ranking. DUSHEE was also quite impressed with Baylor's performance this week against Bye, moving them up from 4th to 1st ... that's right, DUSHEE now has Baylor as the #1 team in the land. Lest any of you accuse me of instituting personal bias in the DUSHEE model. So how did this happen? Well, Baylor gained a point during the bye, meaning that the had net movement in the DUSHEE Scores

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40 PD: 133.3 145.2 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 DUSHEE Rankings

Forgot to post these last week ... 1 Baylor 42.77 361.89 99.62 2 Florida St. 43.01 255.60 90.31 3 Alabama 30.10 188.49 64.08 4 Ohio St. 26.02 202.51 59.00 5 Wisconsin 23.81 201.08 55.42 6 Oregon 25.55 170.33 55.34 7 Louisville 19.72 175.89 46.75 8 Texas A&M 21.30 142.92 46.22 9 Arizona St. 18.91 155.83 43.67 10 Clemson 19.44 141.81 43.22 11 Stanford 18.54 100.86 38.07 12 BYU 14.98 157.32 37.69 13 Missouri 19.79 71.22 37.32 14 LSU 15.63 101.20 33.58 15 South Carolina 13.48 128.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 DUSHEE (2018)

A lot of movement in this week's rankings.  Alabama now has a 3-point lead on Clemson.  Oklahoma has fallen out of the top 4 as Georgia has moved into the 4-slot.  Notre Dame has slowly crept up into 7th, and would still be a home underdog to any other teams in the top-4, but are now in a position where another school (Georgia or Oklahoma) isn't totally getting screwed when they get in the CFP.  UCF has also climbed into the top 10, just ahead of Fresno as the top ranked Have Not ... last week's

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 Rankings -- I've Got Bad News and I've Got Bad News

DUSHEE is a sentient being. He senses the derision and scoffing being heaped on him by certain individuals among the Frog Faithful. He has heard your criticism and feels hurt and defensive. The argument seems to be why and how teams with more losses, in some cases several more and in "weaker" conferences, can be ranked above the Frogs. The answer is that DUSHEE makes no evaluation based on the win-loss binary. It definitively does not view a close win against one of the worst teams in the count

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 Rankings

For those of you clamoring for two Big 12 teams in the college football playoffs, DUSHEE has your back. The Frogs lept three spots to 2 and Baylor is up 4 spots to 4th. Ohio State, despite that still really ugly loss to Virginia Tech early in the season has dominated the B1G into 3rd. Frogs now lead the country in point differential. Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama 24.80 247.51 28.60 2 TCU 27.68 180.47 27.25 3 Ohio St. 26.10 192.62 26.79 4 Baylor 23.30 228.47 26.67 5 Auburn 25.26 188.30 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE Ratings

Some shuffling in the top 10 as Oregon falls to 5 and Stanford climbs to 9. I promised some more commentary last week on which I did not deliver, so I'll try to touch some of those subjects this week ... 1 Baylor 44.27 365.45 100.00 2 Florida St. 42.12 256.35 86.90 3 Alabama 31.96 176.02 64.26 4 Ohio St. 26.69 209.70 59.34 5 Oregon 25.87 190.07 56.31 6 Louisville 21.52 182.47 49.05 7 Wisconsin 20.83 179.81 47.76 8 Texas A&M 20.15 133.68 42.57 9 Stanford 21.28 112.20 42.34 10 Arizo

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE (2018)

This week we'll bring the Extra Crispy version of DUSHEE back into the mix because the "Group of 5" made a big splash in this week's Original formula.  And while I'm reluctant to dismiss unexpected teams that rank highly just because they are unexpected (due perhaps to my own biases), this week's rankings have enough of those teams to give me some pause.  Like, say Utah State, who comes in 6th ... yes, 6th ... in this week's Original formula.   Utah State pounded San Jose (effing) Stat

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE just can't quit the Buckeyes.  Ohio State's blow out win over Michigan State vaulted them back into the top spot, 0.4 of a point ahead of Alabama.  Auburn leapt 7 spots to take 3rd and Oklahoma moved up 3 to take 4th.  This is a lot of movement at this time of year, an indication of the magnitude of the blowouts we saw this weekend.   WTF DUSHEE?   Speaking of movement, while they have moved up 10 spots in the last two weeks, DUSHEE still has undefeated Miami well down

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE Ratings

I'm just going to post the rankings here, and then maybe later in the week if I get some time, I'll discuss some particulars of the numbers at this point in the season. Some items which need discussing: 1) The WTF team of 2013, Kansas State, 2) underrated and overrated teams (looking at you Northern Illinois, Fresno, and of course, Notre Dame), 3) a closer look at some specific teams of interest including Baylor, TCU, etc. (I'm open to suggestions), 4) the lack of a non-AQ pressence in the top 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2018)

As we've discussed in previous weeks, Alabama and Clemson have been set for some time your clear top 2 (Alabama has retaken the top spot as the two continue to jockey in the rankings).  This week, Michigan has begun to separate from the pack as a clear #3 and Oklahoma has now created a little bit of space for itself in #4.  Were the season to end today, that is your playoff as far as DUSHEE is concerned.   The Frogs dropped again, despite the win, three spots to 50th.  DUSHEE has the F

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2017)

We have a new Number 1!!!   After maintaining the top spot since the first DUSHEE rankings came out after week 5, Iowa's shocking obliteration of Ohio State dropped the Buckeyes more than 7 points in DUSHEE score, the largest single team drop of the week.  Despite this precipitous fall, Ohio State only dropped to 2nd in the rankings, behind Alabama, but still a point ahead of Georgia who leapfrogged Penn State into 3rd.  We are now getting to the point of the season where enough games

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

These Teams are Keeping You From a 2013 DUSHEE Poll!!!

As Levi Stubbs would say, this one gonna be short ... I believe I've alluded to this before, but the way DUSHEE runs, every team in FBS must have played at least two games against FBS opponents before any numbers can be generated. Even then, the amount of information isn't particularly robust, but that is the minimum threshold past which zeros are no longer in the denominator and DUSHEE doesn't throw its hands up in disgust and leave the room. So as I track the season, this fact gives a little

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Inaugural 2017 DUSHEE Rankings

If you just want the rankings and don't care about my jibber-jabber, scroll down to the bottom of this post.  But I encourage you to read the jibber-jabber to allow me to explain some of the crazy stuff you see in the rankings.  And as an aside, the addition of Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and the rising of the UAB Phoenixes/Blazers from the ashes has raised the number of FBS teams to 130 for this season.   I'm always quite apprehensive putting out DUSHEE, particularly these early

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Count of Monte Carlo

I've never been to Monte Carlo. But I kinda like the music. Monte Carlo is the stuff of James Bond and European royalty. I don't want to be presumptuous, but most of you reading probably will never go to Monte Carlo. But I'm here to show you how you can bring all the intrigue and prestige of Monte Carlo to your mother's basement or wherever it is you spend your free time playing around with sports statistics on your computer. Monte Carlo simulations have a wide applicability in science and eng

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Case for Marshall

As we've discussed before, every year there are one or two teams that DUSHEE seems to think way more highly of than almost anybody else. I lovingly call this team the DUSHEE WTF team. This year's WTF team appears to be the Thundering Herd. Not that Marhsall is completely disrespected. They are 23rd and 22nd in the AP and Coaches' Polls. The Massey Composite Index has Marshall at 18 and includes a handful of computer polls that place Marshall even higher than DUSHEE's 8th. But the human polls h

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

TCU Bye Week DUSHEE Rankings - Strength of Schedule

Since there was no TCU game to factor into this week's DUSHEE rankings, I thought it might be interesting to dive into DUSHEE's strength of schedule rankings, especially since SoS is a large factor in DUSHEE WTF team and TCU's next opponent West Virginia's inflated ranking. But first, the rankings have the Frogs holding par, remaining at 18th, despite their DUSHEE score dropping nearly a point during the bye week. The score dropped, in part, due to the continued decline of our prior opponents,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

SEC Fatigue

Let's get it out of the way. The SEC is the best. I'm not even going to try to dispute it as much as I'd like to. I am as sick of them as anybody else who doesn't live within 30 miles of a Civil War battlefield. The bona fides are not in question. Every Mythical National Championship since 2006. Only conference in history to win more than 3 in a row. By far the most NFL draft picks. And you can't avoid the superlatives. Steve Spurrier, albeit for transparently self-serving reasons, absurdly de

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Pre-Bowl DUSHEE

I don't know what to do with DUSHEE. Using the old methodology, this year in paticular, good teams from bad conferences seem to be over rated based on destroying their weak schedules, even if they lose to the few decent teams on the schedule. Or use the new methodology and middle-of-the-road teams from highly rated conferences get overrated. So either Appalachian State and Western Kentucky look ridiculous in the top 25 or Arkansas and Tennessee look ridiculous in the top 15. And in both cases, B

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

New Tweaks to DUSHEE

I can't begin to tell you how many emails I received about not releasing a DUSHEE ranking last week and I heard your pleas and cries. I started playing around with the methodology to respond to the large number of WTF teams this season. As discussed in the last post, I attecked this in two ways; 2) by deemphasizing statistical outliers (i.e., games that are significantly better or worse than the typical performance for a particular team and 2) emphasizing the strength of the opponent. I'll con

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Musings Going into the 2015 Season

I've been struggling to come up with some blog ideas to pass the time until the beathlessly-anticipated first DUSHEE ranking does come out, marking the official beginning of college football season. This morning, the Google News aggregator passed this article from the Detroit News before my eyes, the audaciously named "Top three things to know about college football analytics" by one Ed Feng, a fellow engineer. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2015/09/18/feng-top-three-things-to-

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Makin' Your Way in the World Today, Takes Everything You've Got ...

Bill Clements' Pride and Joy and Must See TV Yesterday, some network (TVLand?) ran a Cheers! marathon starting with the first ever episode which aired on September 29, 1982. On that Wednesday, the American TV audience, one limited to an unthinkable half dozen TV channels from which to choose, stood up from their couches, walked over to the TV, and turned a knob to whatever number corresponded to their NBC affiliate station, and "Must See TV" was born. On the Saturday prior, SMU's Pony Express,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Jekyll and Hyde II -- Hell's Half Acre

Whither the 2016 Frogs?   Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.   The 2016 Frogs.   Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.   There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point bea

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Inaugural 2018 DUSHEE (Week 4)

So the critical threshold has been crossed ... every FBS team has played at least two other FBS teams, which allows DUSHEE to calculate a score for each team without dividing by zeros or linearly extrapolating single points and other mathematical impossibilities that it doesn't like to do.  To no one's surprise, Alabama is #1 by a mile.  But this year's inaugural poll comes with the same caveat that every inaugural DUSHEE poll comes with ... just because there is enough data to calculate scores

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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