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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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DUSHEE Week 13 (2017)

No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.   TCU Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay   10.00 23.20 31.82  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

What Does It Mean When Someone Has a 60% Chance of Winning?

Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.   But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts th

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 12 (2017)

DUSHEE still loves the Ojai-uh Bucks and has now moved three SEC teams into slots 2-4.  A playoff final 4 that would be enough to make college football fans in every other part of the country outside the southeast and Ohio vomit.   The Frogs slid yet another spot to 14th.  The Frogs slow trickle down through the standings seems to be due to a general drop in the performance of the Big XII-II as a whole as the conference dropped from the 2nd spot to the 4th spot, passed by both the ACC

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE just can't quit the Buckeyes.  Ohio State's blow out win over Michigan State vaulted them back into the top spot, 0.4 of a point ahead of Alabama.  Auburn leapt 7 spots to take 3rd and Oklahoma moved up 3 to take 4th.  This is a lot of movement at this time of year, an indication of the magnitude of the blowouts we saw this weekend.   WTF DUSHEE?   Speaking of movement, while they have moved up 10 spots in the last two weeks, DUSHEE still has undefeated Miami well down

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2017)

We have a new Number 1!!!   After maintaining the top spot since the first DUSHEE rankings came out after week 5, Iowa's shocking obliteration of Ohio State dropped the Buckeyes more than 7 points in DUSHEE score, the largest single team drop of the week.  Despite this precipitous fall, Ohio State only dropped to 2nd in the rankings, behind Alabama, but still a point ahead of Georgia who leapfrogged Penn State into 3rd.  We are now getting to the point of the season where enough games

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2017)

For any who actually read any of this, I apologize but work and home life have not allowed time for commentary.  Just posting the results ...   Frogs Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU   8.00 30.00 37.86   15.83 28.50 17.50 7.00

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2017)

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  33.95 281.68 36.24 0 -2.69 2 Alabama  33.28 257.70 34.63 0 -1.78 3 Penn St.  34.19 191.62 32.04 0 -0.37 4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE still loves it some Ohio State.  The Buckeyes remain firmly in first place, despite their loss to Oklahoma.  In fact, OSU has had a top 3 DUSHEE score each of the last 5 weeks.  Here are their week-to-week totals (rows are opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score.)   @ Ind  OU  Army  UNLV @ Rut  Mary @ Neb 31.50 4.40 41.40

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2017 Season)

As the weeks progress, things in DUSHEE tend to settle out.  Extremes begin to regress to the mean.  Of the top 15 teams, 12 saw their DUSHEE score drop this week; of the bottom 15, 9 saw their DUSHEE score rise.   Baylor got hammered during their bye week, falling 28 spots and losing 11 points in their DUSHEE score primarily because each of their past opponents (UTSA, Duke, OU, and K-State) all lost.  The Bears went from ranked 24th to 52nd and a DUSHEE score of 15.91 to 4.87.  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Inaugural 2017 DUSHEE Rankings

If you just want the rankings and don't care about my jibber-jabber, scroll down to the bottom of this post.  But I encourage you to read the jibber-jabber to allow me to explain some of the crazy stuff you see in the rankings.  And as an aside, the addition of Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and the rising of the UAB Phoenixes/Blazers from the ashes has raised the number of FBS teams to 130 for this season.   I'm always quite apprehensive putting out DUSHEE, particularly these early

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective on College Football (Part II -- The Power 5 and the Rest)

Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.   This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.   And away we go ...   Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II   TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded t

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective of College Football (Part 1 -- TCU-centric)

If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.   Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016-2017 TCU Basketball In Perspective

In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.   A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success ha

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview

This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking.    ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the differ

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Final Regular Season DUSHEE Rankings Dump

This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.   DUSHEE Original Formulation   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Jekyll and Hyde II -- Hell's Half Acre

Whither the 2016 Frogs?   Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.   The 2016 Frogs.   Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.   There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point bea

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Week 6 DUSHEE

Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Michigan  46.74 299.07 46.22 2 Ohio St.  38.30 324.63 41.88 3 Clemson  34.63 280.91 37.23 4 Louisville  26.45 367.75 36.15 5 Alabama  34.56

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Week 5 DUSHEE

I never published this last week ...   Overall 1 Ohio St.  45.33 369.46 48.37 2 Michigan  44.75 287.27 43.94 3 Alabama  34.70 262.88 36.05 4 Clemson  32.25 276.10 35.06 5 Louisville  23.57 364

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Pre-Bowl DUSHEE

I don't know what to do with DUSHEE. Using the old methodology, this year in paticular, good teams from bad conferences seem to be over rated based on destroying their weak schedules, even if they lose to the few decent teams on the schedule. Or use the new methodology and middle-of-the-road teams from highly rated conferences get overrated. So either Appalachian State and Western Kentucky look ridiculous in the top 25 or Arkansas and Tennessee look ridiculous in the top 15. And in both cases, B

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

New Tweaks to DUSHEE

I can't begin to tell you how many emails I received about not releasing a DUSHEE ranking last week and I heard your pleas and cries. I started playing around with the methodology to respond to the large number of WTF teams this season. As discussed in the last post, I attecked this in two ways; 2) by deemphasizing statistical outliers (i.e., games that are significantly better or worse than the typical performance for a particular team and 2) emphasizing the strength of the opponent. I'll con

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40 PD: 133.3 145.2 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 Rankings -- I've Got Bad News and I've Got Bad News

DUSHEE is a sentient being. He senses the derision and scoffing being heaped on him by certain individuals among the Frog Faithful. He has heard your criticism and feels hurt and defensive. The argument seems to be why and how teams with more losses, in some cases several more and in "weaker" conferences, can be ranked above the Frogs. The answer is that DUSHEE makes no evaluation based on the win-loss binary. It definitively does not view a close win against one of the worst teams in the count

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 10 -- Don't Fret Frog Fans!

On a gloomy post-loss (post-non-win?) Monday, DUSHEE is here to give you good cheer and boost your morose spirits. Due to a number of factors, including the sizeable yardage advantage TCU had over Oklahoma State, DUSHEE didn't punish the Frogs as severely as you might think. TCU's DUSHEE score only dropped a point after the loss and when combined with even larger drops in DUSHEE score for both LSU and West Virginia who were ranked just above the Frogs in the poll, the Frogs actually climbed 2 sp

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE Rankings

Our long national nightmare is over! Clemson has leapt Baylor as the new DUSHEE Number 1. It was a Halloween miracle! DUSHEE was very impressed by the Frogs' performance against West Virginia. As this year's WTF team, DUSHEE has held (and continues to hold) the Mountaineers in very high regard. TCU's performance earned the top performance of the week edging out Washington's beatdown of the fighting RichRods and Clemson's shootout win over NC State. The Frogs ranking jumped from 18th to 11th and

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

TCU Bye Week DUSHEE Rankings - Strength of Schedule

Since there was no TCU game to factor into this week's DUSHEE rankings, I thought it might be interesting to dive into DUSHEE's strength of schedule rankings, especially since SoS is a large factor in DUSHEE WTF team and TCU's next opponent West Virginia's inflated ranking. But first, the rankings have the Frogs holding par, remaining at 18th, despite their DUSHEE score dropping nearly a point during the bye week. The score dropped, in part, due to the continued decline of our prior opponents,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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