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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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A Historical Perspective on College Football (Part II -- The Power 5 and the Rest)

Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.   This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.   And away we go ...   Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II   TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded t

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective of College Football (Part 1 -- TCU-centric)

If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.   Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016-2017 TCU Basketball In Perspective

In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.   A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success ha

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview

This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking.    ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the differ

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Final Regular Season DUSHEE Rankings Dump

This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.   DUSHEE Original Formulation   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Jekyll and Hyde II -- Hell's Half Acre

Whither the 2016 Frogs?   Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.   The 2016 Frogs.   Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.   There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point bea

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Week 6 DUSHEE

Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Michigan  46.74 299.07 46.22 2 Ohio St.  38.30 324.63 41.88 3 Clemson  34.63 280.91 37.23 4 Louisville  26.45 367.75 36.15 5 Alabama  34.56

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Week 5 DUSHEE

I never published this last week ...   Overall 1 Ohio St.  45.33 369.46 48.37 2 Michigan  44.75 287.27 43.94 3 Alabama  34.70 262.88 36.05 4 Clemson  32.25 276.10 35.06 5 Louisville  23.57 364

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Pre-Bowl DUSHEE

I don't know what to do with DUSHEE. Using the old methodology, this year in paticular, good teams from bad conferences seem to be over rated based on destroying their weak schedules, even if they lose to the few decent teams on the schedule. Or use the new methodology and middle-of-the-road teams from highly rated conferences get overrated. So either Appalachian State and Western Kentucky look ridiculous in the top 25 or Arkansas and Tennessee look ridiculous in the top 15. And in both cases, B

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

New Tweaks to DUSHEE

I can't begin to tell you how many emails I received about not releasing a DUSHEE ranking last week and I heard your pleas and cries. I started playing around with the methodology to respond to the large number of WTF teams this season. As discussed in the last post, I attecked this in two ways; 2) by deemphasizing statistical outliers (i.e., games that are significantly better or worse than the typical performance for a particular team and 2) emphasizing the strength of the opponent. I'll con

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40 PD: 133.3 145.2 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 Rankings -- I've Got Bad News and I've Got Bad News

DUSHEE is a sentient being. He senses the derision and scoffing being heaped on him by certain individuals among the Frog Faithful. He has heard your criticism and feels hurt and defensive. The argument seems to be why and how teams with more losses, in some cases several more and in "weaker" conferences, can be ranked above the Frogs. The answer is that DUSHEE makes no evaluation based on the win-loss binary. It definitively does not view a close win against one of the worst teams in the count

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 10 -- Don't Fret Frog Fans!

On a gloomy post-loss (post-non-win?) Monday, DUSHEE is here to give you good cheer and boost your morose spirits. Due to a number of factors, including the sizeable yardage advantage TCU had over Oklahoma State, DUSHEE didn't punish the Frogs as severely as you might think. TCU's DUSHEE score only dropped a point after the loss and when combined with even larger drops in DUSHEE score for both LSU and West Virginia who were ranked just above the Frogs in the poll, the Frogs actually climbed 2 sp

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE Rankings

Our long national nightmare is over! Clemson has leapt Baylor as the new DUSHEE Number 1. It was a Halloween miracle! DUSHEE was very impressed by the Frogs' performance against West Virginia. As this year's WTF team, DUSHEE has held (and continues to hold) the Mountaineers in very high regard. TCU's performance earned the top performance of the week edging out Washington's beatdown of the fighting RichRods and Clemson's shootout win over NC State. The Frogs ranking jumped from 18th to 11th and

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

TCU Bye Week DUSHEE Rankings - Strength of Schedule

Since there was no TCU game to factor into this week's DUSHEE rankings, I thought it might be interesting to dive into DUSHEE's strength of schedule rankings, especially since SoS is a large factor in DUSHEE WTF team and TCU's next opponent West Virginia's inflated ranking. But first, the rankings have the Frogs holding par, remaining at 18th, despite their DUSHEE score dropping nearly a point during the bye week. The score dropped, in part, due to the continued decline of our prior opponents,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

Once again, the Frogs were crushed by the weak performances of its prior opponents. Minnesota was blown out at home by Nebraska, Texas Tech struggled to beat an awful Kansas team, and most significantly, the team that took us to the brink last week was beat by 55 at home by Oklahoma. The last one, in particular, forced the dive that the Frogs took in DUSHEE this week, as you can see in the comparison of TCU's week-by-week DUSHEE scores as they stood after last week's games compared to this week:

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

The Frogs move back up to 9th in this week's rankings. Some of you may wonder, "What are you smoking, DUSHEE? We blow out Texas and drop 7 spots and then eek past Kansas State and go back up?" A look at the numbers reveals that a number of factors are at play. First, teams that were above the Frogs dropped, namely Oklahoma and USC. Oklahoma's loss to Texas dropped their DUSHEE score 14 points, meaning they are evaluated to be two touchdowns worse this week than they were evaluated to be last we

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE

To explain what happened to TCU in this week's poll, I'll ask all of you to go back into the repressed memories of the days after the Iowa State game last season and remember what happened prior to the release of the playoff seedings. Remember that coincident to our destruction of a mediocre-to-poor conference opponent, all of our best resume bullets took a hit: Oklahoma lost, Kansas State lost, Minnesota had lost the week before to a team that got destroyed by Ohio State that week. Things outsi

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Inaugural 2015 DUSHEE Rankings

Well, here it is, folks. This first ranking comes out with the usual caveat: it's early. Many of the teams are ranked on the basis of two games played against FBS competition, including the top 2 teams in the ranking, conference mates Baylor and West Virginia. In fact, this may be the first time that every team has emerged past the 2 FBS opponents threshold by week 4 since I started doing this. Usually there is a straggler or two with more than one bye or FCS opponent in the early part of the se

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Musings Going into the 2015 Season

I've been struggling to come up with some blog ideas to pass the time until the beathlessly-anticipated first DUSHEE ranking does come out, marking the official beginning of college football season. This morning, the Google News aggregator passed this article from the Detroit News before my eyes, the audaciously named "Top three things to know about college football analytics" by one Ed Feng, a fellow engineer. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2015/09/18/feng-top-three-things-to-

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

FINAL 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Ohio St. 29.65 213.64 30.20 2 TCU 29.18 186.04 28.54 3 Alabama 25.58 194.32 26.54 4 Michigan St. 24.08 207.86 26.21 5 Oregon 26.33 153.90 25.07 6 Marshall 23.66 171.29 24.14 7 Baylor 21.34 199.49 23.97 8 Georgia 23.78 130.48 22.23 9 Auburn 18.64 162.62 20.37 10 Mississippi 20.30 126.72 19.72 ______________________________________ 11 Wisconsin 14.54 182.51 18.61 12 Mississippi St. 18.12 107.03 17.31 13 Georgia Tech 18.20 104.56 17.24 14 Arkans

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE beat Vegas! (barely)

A few have asked how DUSHEE did picking the bowl games this year and the answer is a mixed bag. Historically, DUSHEE has done very well picking bowl winners while the regular season was more sketchy. (Since most of the documentation of prior DUSHEE success was cataloged on kf.c, you'll have to take my word for it or see if you can find it over there.) This year, DUSHEE wasn't really much better in the bowls than it was in the regular season, which is to say, not that great. Using the same ESPN

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE's Take on the CFP, TCU, and the Peach Bowl

In case you hadn't stewed on the outcome of the CFP enough, here comes DUSHEE to try and shed at least a little light on what happened to the Frogs and college football in general over the last few weeks. First, here are the critical DUSHEE numbers for each of the top 6 in the CFP final rankings for each FBS game played: Alabama Opp: WVU FAU USM| Fla Miss Ark | A&M Tenn LSU | MissSt Aub Mizz PD: 14.00 33.36 23.70 | 29.22 8.50 8.60 | 66.40 16.30 15.50 | 23.90 21.40 36.91 YD: 247.40 413.4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season (sorta) DUSHEE Ranking

Well, the college football committee wasn't the only entity impressed by Ohio State's beatdown of Wisco. Remember when Alabama's thrashing of A&M was a historically big DUSHEE score? Much like Perrine's eclipsing Gordon's rushing record (or was it vice versa?) Ohio State's win eclipsed Alabama's(66.40 now) with a PD of 78.55. The Buckeyes were 11 TD's better against Wisconsin than the average opponent was. And with that, Ohio State lept Alabama into first. The Frogs climb to 3rd, Oregon

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 14 DUSHEE

A lot of movement, although not at number 1. Much like the Frogs after Kansas, Baylor fell to 8 after struggling against Tech. DUSHEE loves Michigan State and Marshall, despite their loss, still remains high. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 23.72 193.23 25.16 2 Michigan St. 22.15 193.83 24.14 3 Ohio St. 22.86 170.19 23.47 4 TCU 24.21 136.86 22.76 5 Wisconsin 19.25 198.05 22.41 6 Marshall 20.93 156.93 21.54 7 Mississippi 21.89 141.68 21.44 8 Baylor 19.50 174.16 21.42 9 Orego

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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