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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

Entries in this blog

 

An introduction to DUSHEE for the uninitiated ...

I'm a little uncertain how this blog thing works, but here's mud in your eye ... Why DUSHEE? A few years ago, on some random college football Saturday, I decided that it wasn't enough for me to just waste the day on the couch watching football ... that I needed to incorporate my two loves, college football and Excel spreadsheets, into one glorious symbiotic whole. And on that day, the Duquesne Ultimate Statistical Heuristic Evaluation of Excellence (I don't remember if that was the original no

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

What Does It Mean When Someone Has a 60% Chance of Winning?

Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.   But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts th

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview

This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking.    ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the differ

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Blind Squirrels Finding Acorns

Any avid college football fan, particularly one who follows one team closely over the course of a season, knows that teams of 18-22 years old kids/men are fickle. The 2005 TCU team starts the season by going into Norman and handing the Sooners the second of just 5 losses they've had at home in the Bob Stoops era. Then the next week they lose to a 5-6 SMU team. Last year's TCU team was all over the map as well, losing badly to a mediocre Iowa State team but whipping a solid Baylor team. In many

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Count of Monte Carlo

I've never been to Monte Carlo. But I kinda like the music. Monte Carlo is the stuff of James Bond and European royalty. I don't want to be presumptuous, but most of you reading probably will never go to Monte Carlo. But I'm here to show you how you can bring all the intrigue and prestige of Monte Carlo to your mother's basement or wherever it is you spend your free time playing around with sports statistics on your computer. Monte Carlo simulations have a wide applicability in science and eng

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Apologetics for the Patterson Era

Cue the voice of John Facenda ... In the blazing Texas September sun, as the rest of America begins the gradual chill into fall, the heat clings to the Earth here like the tick clings to the mockingbird. Where the zest and frolic of Spring has fallen prey to the searing August scourge and the only life that thrives is the pestilent fire ant, one man also thrives. He thrives not on water, the last drop of which was seen in May, nor on other basic human needs, needs that make mere mortal men weak

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE's Take on the CFP, TCU, and the Peach Bowl

In case you hadn't stewed on the outcome of the CFP enough, here comes DUSHEE to try and shed at least a little light on what happened to the Frogs and college football in general over the last few weeks. First, here are the critical DUSHEE numbers for each of the top 6 in the CFP final rankings for each FBS game played: Alabama Opp: WVU FAU USM| Fla Miss Ark | A&M Tenn LSU | MissSt Aub Mizz PD: 14.00 33.36 23.70 | 29.22 8.50 8.60 | 66.40 16.30 15.50 | 23.90 21.40 36.91 YD: 247.40 413.4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Jekyll and Hyde II -- Hell's Half Acre

Whither the 2016 Frogs?   Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.   The 2016 Frogs.   Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.   There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point bea

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

SEC Fatigue

Let's get it out of the way. The SEC is the best. I'm not even going to try to dispute it as much as I'd like to. I am as sick of them as anybody else who doesn't live within 30 miles of a Civil War battlefield. The bona fides are not in question. Every Mythical National Championship since 2006. Only conference in history to win more than 3 in a row. By far the most NFL draft picks. And you can't avoid the superlatives. Steve Spurrier, albeit for transparently self-serving reasons, absurdly de

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview 2017-2018

As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.   In the tables below,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016-2017 TCU Basketball In Perspective

In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.   A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success ha

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Final Regular Season DUSHEE Rankings Dump

This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.   DUSHEE Original Formulation   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40 PD: 133.3 145.2 2

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Makin' Your Way in the World Today, Takes Everything You've Got ...

Bill Clements' Pride and Joy and Must See TV Yesterday, some network (TVLand?) ran a Cheers! marathon starting with the first ever episode which aired on September 29, 1982. On that Wednesday, the American TV audience, one limited to an unthinkable half dozen TV channels from which to choose, stood up from their couches, walked over to the TV, and turned a knob to whatever number corresponded to their NBC affiliate station, and "Must See TV" was born. On the Saturday prior, SMU's Pony Express,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Demystifying the "Computer Poll" in the BCS era

Revenge of the Nerds Back in February, ESPN (The Magazine) ran a cover story about the controversial 2012 MLB AL MVP race between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout, which somehow turned into a proxy battle between "old school" baseball men who used their eyes and guts to evaluate players and the new age sabermatrician nerds who could only see what was quantifiable. Qualitative evaluation versus quantitative evaluation. Clint Eastwood in Trouble With the Curve versus Brad Pitt in Moneyball. For tho

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

DUSHEE was also unimpressed with the Frogs close call in Lawrence, dropping TCU from 2nd to 8th in this week's ranking. DUSHEE was also quite impressed with Baylor's performance this week against Bye, moving them up from 4th to 1st ... that's right, DUSHEE now has Baylor as the #1 team in the land. Lest any of you accuse me of instituting personal bias in the DUSHEE model. So how did this happen? Well, Baylor gained a point during the bye, meaning that the had net movement in the DUSHEE Scores

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE Ratings

Some shuffling in the top 10 as Oregon falls to 5 and Stanford climbs to 9. I promised some more commentary last week on which I did not deliver, so I'll try to touch some of those subjects this week ... 1 Baylor 44.27 365.45 100.00 2 Florida St. 42.12 256.35 86.90 3 Alabama 31.96 176.02 64.26 4 Ohio St. 26.69 209.70 59.34 5 Oregon 25.87 190.07 56.31 6 Louisville 21.52 182.47 49.05 7 Wisconsin 20.83 179.81 47.76 8 Texas A&M 20.15 133.68 42.57 9 Stanford 21.28 112.20 42.34 10 Arizo

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE beat Vegas! (barely)

A few have asked how DUSHEE did picking the bowl games this year and the answer is a mixed bag. Historically, DUSHEE has done very well picking bowl winners while the regular season was more sketchy. (Since most of the documentation of prior DUSHEE success was cataloged on kf.c, you'll have to take my word for it or see if you can find it over there.) This year, DUSHEE wasn't really much better in the bowls than it was in the regular season, which is to say, not that great. Using the same ESPN

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

For all us glum TCU fans, DUSHEE comes in this Sunday morning with good news. One, despite hanging 73 on WVU, Baylor has fallen out of the top spot, ceding to Lee Corso's alma mater, Florida State. Two, despite losing to Oklahoma and showing only the slightest pulse of an offense, TCU is now on the cusp of the top 25. That's right Frog fans, despite how you feel today, DUSHEE is here to totally blow sunshine up your collective asses and boost your self esteem with participation ribbons galore!

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 14 DUSHEE

A lot of movement, although not at number 1. Much like the Frogs after Kansas, Baylor fell to 8 after struggling against Tech. DUSHEE loves Michigan State and Marshall, despite their loss, still remains high. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 23.72 193.23 25.16 2 Michigan St. 22.15 193.83 24.14 3 Ohio St. 22.86 170.19 23.47 4 TCU 24.21 136.86 22.76 5 Wisconsin 19.25 198.05 22.41 6 Marshall 20.93 156.93 21.54 7 Mississippi 21.89 141.68 21.44 8 Baylor 19.50 174.16 21.42 9 Orego

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

FINAL 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Ohio St. 29.65 213.64 30.20 2 TCU 29.18 186.04 28.54 3 Alabama 25.58 194.32 26.54 4 Michigan St. 24.08 207.86 26.21 5 Oregon 26.33 153.90 25.07 6 Marshall 23.66 171.29 24.14 7 Baylor 21.34 199.49 23.97 8 Georgia 23.78 130.48 22.23 9 Auburn 18.64 162.62 20.37 10 Mississippi 20.30 126.72 19.72 ______________________________________ 11 Wisconsin 14.54 182.51 18.61 12 Mississippi St. 18.12 107.03 17.31 13 Georgia Tech 18.20 104.56 17.24 14 Arkans

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective on College Football (Part II -- The Power 5 and the Rest)

Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.   This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.   And away we go ...   Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II   TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded t

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE

Thankfully, Baylor's performance against OkieSt was just mediocre enough to drop them from the top spot. They are now 2nd behind Alabama. DUSHEE continues to really love the B1G and Marshall. TCU climbs one spot due to the precipitous fall of Ole Miss out of the top 10. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 24.68 219.53 27.00 2 Baylor 23.01 219.04 25.86 3 Ohio St. 23.60 178.72 24.32 4 Michigan St. 21.60 198.06 23.92 5 Marshall 22.65 173.65 23.44 6 Wisconsin 19.86 194.77 22.59 7 TCU

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective of College Football (Part 1 -- TCU-centric)

If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.   Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season (sorta) DUSHEE Ranking

Well, the college football committee wasn't the only entity impressed by Ohio State's beatdown of Wisco. Remember when Alabama's thrashing of A&M was a historically big DUSHEE score? Much like Perrine's eclipsing Gordon's rushing record (or was it vice versa?) Ohio State's win eclipsed Alabama's(66.40 now) with a PD of 78.55. The Buckeyes were 11 TD's better against Wisconsin than the average opponent was. And with that, Ohio State lept Alabama into first. The Frogs climb to 3rd, Oregon

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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