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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

Entries in this blog

 

What Does It Mean When Someone Has a 60% Chance of Winning?

Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.   But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts th

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

An introduction to DUSHEE for the uninitiated ...

I'm a little uncertain how this blog thing works, but here's mud in your eye ... Why DUSHEE? A few years ago, on some random college football Saturday, I decided that it wasn't enough for me to just waste the day on the couch watching football ... that I needed to incorporate my two loves, college football and Excel spreadsheets, into one glorious symbiotic whole. And on that day, the Duquesne Ultimate Statistical Heuristic Evaluation of Excellence (I don't remember if that was the original non-

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview

This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking.    ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the differ

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016-2017 TCU Basketball In Perspective

In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.   A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success ha

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE (2018)

Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points).  It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia.  Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team.  The biggest mover in the to

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

2018 DUSHEE Wrap-up

2018 DUSHEE Wrap-up

It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season.  DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done.  The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread.  And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening line

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview 2017-2018

As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.   In the tables below,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Jekyll and Hyde II -- Hell's Half Acre

Whither the 2016 Frogs?   Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.   The 2016 Frogs.   Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.   There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point bea

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Blind Squirrels Finding Acorns

Any avid college football fan, particularly one who follows one team closely over the course of a season, knows that teams of 18-22 years old kids/men are fickle. The 2005 TCU team starts the season by going into Norman and handing the Sooners the second of just 5 losses they've had at home in the Bob Stoops era. Then the next week they lose to a 5-6 SMU team. Last year's TCU team was all over the map as well, losing badly to a mediocre Iowa State team but whipping a solid Baylor team. In many c

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

SEC Fatigue

Let's get it out of the way. The SEC is the best. I'm not even going to try to dispute it as much as I'd like to. I am as sick of them as anybody else who doesn't live within 30 miles of a Civil War battlefield. The bona fides are not in question. Every Mythical National Championship since 2006. Only conference in history to win more than 3 in a row. By far the most NFL draft picks. And you can't avoid the superlatives. Steve Spurrier, albeit for transparently self-serving reasons, absurdly decl

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Count of Monte Carlo

I've never been to Monte Carlo. But I kinda like the music. Monte Carlo is the stuff of James Bond and European royalty. I don't want to be presumptuous, but most of you reading probably will never go to Monte Carlo. But I'm here to show you how you can bring all the intrigue and prestige of Monte Carlo to your mother's basement or wherever it is you spend your free time playing around with sports statistics on your computer. Monte Carlo simulations have a wide applicability in science and engin

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE Ratings

Some shuffling in the top 10 as Oregon falls to 5 and Stanford climbs to 9. I promised some more commentary last week on which I did not deliver, so I'll try to touch some of those subjects this week ... 1 Baylor 44.27 365.45 100.00 2 Florida St. 42.12 256.35 86.90 3 Alabama 31.96 176.02 64.26 4 Ohio St. 26.69 209.70 59.34 5 Oregon 25.87 190.07 56.31 6 Louisville 21.52 182.47 49.05 7 Wisconsin 20.83 179.81 47.76 8 Texas A&M 20.15 133.68 42.57 9 Stanford 21.28 112.20 42.34 10 Arizona St. 17.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Apologetics for the Patterson Era

Cue the voice of John Facenda ... In the blazing Texas September sun, as the rest of America begins the gradual chill into fall, the heat clings to the Earth here like the tick clings to the mockingbird. Where the zest and frolic of Spring has fallen prey to the searing August scourge and the only life that thrives is the pestilent fire ant, one man also thrives. He thrives not on water, the last drop of which was seen in May, nor on other basic human needs, needs that make mere mortal men weak,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 DUSHEE (2018)

A lot of movement in this week's rankings.  Alabama now has a 3-point lead on Clemson.  Oklahoma has fallen out of the top 4 as Georgia has moved into the 4-slot.  Notre Dame has slowly crept up into 7th, and would still be a home underdog to any other teams in the top-4, but are now in a position where another school (Georgia or Oklahoma) isn't totally getting screwed when they get in the CFP.  UCF has also climbed into the top 10, just ahead of Fresno as the top ranked Have Not ... last week's

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 12 (2017)

DUSHEE still loves the Ojai-uh Bucks and has now moved three SEC teams into slots 2-4.  A playoff final 4 that would be enough to make college football fans in every other part of the country outside the southeast and Ohio vomit.   The Frogs slid yet another spot to 14th.  The Frogs slow trickle down through the standings seems to be due to a general drop in the performance of the Big XII-II as a whole as the conference dropped from the 2nd spot to the 4th spot, passed by both the ACC

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE's Take on the CFP, TCU, and the Peach Bowl

In case you hadn't stewed on the outcome of the CFP enough, here comes DUSHEE to try and shed at least a little light on what happened to the Frogs and college football in general over the last few weeks. First, here are the critical DUSHEE numbers for each of the top 6 in the CFP final rankings for each FBS game played: Alabama Opp: WVU FAU USM| Fla Miss Ark | A&M Tenn LSU | MissSt Aub Mizz PD: 14.00 33.36 23.70 | 29.22 8.50 8.60 | 66.40 16.30 15.50 | 23.90 21.40 36.91 YD: 247.40 413.45 170

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Final Regular Season DUSHEE Rankings Dump

This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.   DUSHEE Original Formulation   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Mi

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season DUSHEE (2017)

Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.   The Frogs   At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as stron

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 13 (2017)

No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.   TCU Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Demystifying the "Computer Poll" in the BCS era

Revenge of the Nerds Back in February, ESPN (The Magazine) ran a cover story about the controversial 2012 MLB AL MVP race between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout, which somehow turned into a proxy battle between "old school" baseball men who used their eyes and guts to evaluate players and the new age sabermatrician nerds who could only see what was quantifiable. Qualitative evaluation versus quantitative evaluation. Clint Eastwood in Trouble With the Curve versus Brad Pitt in Moneyball. For those

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Makin' Your Way in the World Today, Takes Everything You've Got ...

Bill Clements' Pride and Joy and Must See TV Yesterday, some network (TVLand?) ran a Cheers! marathon starting with the first ever episode which aired on September 29, 1982. On that Wednesday, the American TV audience, one limited to an unthinkable half dozen TV channels from which to choose, stood up from their couches, walked over to the TV, and turned a knob to whatever number corresponded to their NBC affiliate station, and "Must See TV" was born. On the Saturday prior, SMU's Pony Express, r

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40 PD: 133.3 145.2 214.1

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective of College Football (Part 1 -- TCU-centric)

If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.   Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season.  Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan.  The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season.  Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves.  Same old, same old.  I don't think

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective on College Football (Part II -- The Power 5 and the Rest)

Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.   This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.   And away we go ...   Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II   TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded t

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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