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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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What Does It Mean When Someone Has a 60% Chance of Winning?

Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.   But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts th

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE Rankings

Crappiest football season ever ... 1 Baylor 45.10 370.43 100.00 2 Florida St. 42.14 301.54 89.46 3 Oregon 31.23 233.31 67.17 4 Alabama 32.40 161.25 62.49 5 Louisville 26.57 208.57 58.05 6 Ohio St. 26.93 194.76 57.35 7 Wisconsin 20.58 197.26 48.15 8 Arizona St. 19.36 182.57 45.02 9 Texas A&M 18.86 132.73 39.84 10 BYU 16.00 163.35 38.32 11 Kansas St. 18.09 112.81 36.93 12 Missouri 19.28 92.77 36.90 13 Stanford 19.15 93.27 36.76 14 Clemson 16.96 125.93 36.41 15 LSU 18.06 99.92 35

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE Rankings

Our long national nightmare is over! Clemson has leapt Baylor as the new DUSHEE Number 1. It was a Halloween miracle! DUSHEE was very impressed by the Frogs' performance against West Virginia. As this year's WTF team, DUSHEE has held (and continues to hold) the Mountaineers in very high regard. TCU's performance earned the top performance of the week edging out Washington's beatdown of the fighting RichRods and Clemson's shootout win over NC State. The Frogs ranking jumped from 18th to 11th and

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2018)

No movement in the top 4 although Clemson increased its lead over Bama a bit this week and the Frogs fell (only) 4 more spots to 47th, helped by outgaining Kansas by 200 yards despite losing.  The largest faller this week in both ranking and score was Baylor, who dropped 26 spots in the ranking to 83rd.  The biggest climber this week was Georgia Southern who beat DUSHEE darling Appalachian State and climbed 33 spots to 56th.   TCU Week-by-Week The Kansas game looks bad, but maybe

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2017)

For any who actually read any of this, I apologize but work and home life have not allowed time for commentary.  Just posting the results ...   Frogs Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU   8.00 30.00 37.86   15.83 28.50 17.50 7.00

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE Rankings

I was up until almost midnight serving fries to the voracious throng at the Pitt-Old Dominion game last night, and while I technically did not have a drop of alcohol, nonetheless I feel hungover. The continued suckage of our football team has not helped matters. So I'm just posting the results. Bleh. By Team Rk Team PD YD Score 1 Baylor 47.92 376.16 100.00 2 Florida St. 45.75 309.93 91.16 3 Oregon 29.03 217.03 59.63 4 Alabama 31.85 165.35 59.03 5 Louisville 27.56 191.55 55.34 6 Wisconsin

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE Rankings

Some pretty big swings in the rankings this week as Alabama, propelled by certainly the biggest PD of this season and probably one of the biggest since I've been doing this, is now first in the rankings. Alabama's PD against A&M was 72.2 and the next highest PD on the season has been Auburn's 55.2 against LSU in week 6. I haven't had a chance to go back and see what the highest PD's in DUSHEE history have been, but I'd be surprised if 72.2 is not the highest. Alabama's YD of 561 against A&am

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2018)

I figure interest in this blog is niche at best, even when the Frogs are playing well.  So I assume at this point, I'm just writing this for myself.  But nonetheless, for this week's entry in the second saddest diary ever written (allowing that Anne Frank's is probably still a little sadder) ...   Clemson reclaims the top spot in the rankings, but it really is just Clemson, Bama, and the rest of the field at this point.  There is an almost 10-point gap between those two teams and 3rd r

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2017)

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  33.95 281.68 36.24 0 -2.69 2 Alabama  33.28 257.70 34.63 0 -1.78 3 Penn St.  34.19 191.62 32.04 0 -0.37 4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

DUSHEE has decided he has pumped as much sunshine as he can. Unimpressed by TCU's performance against Kansas (TCU's first negative PD of the year at -4.67), the Frogs have dropped to 41. Baylor, despite playing their first decent opponent of the year (Buffalo has drifted back to 65th) and not winning by 50, has creeped back past Florida State into the #1 spot. Kansas State was rewarded with a solid moral victory in the Baylor game with a leap from 53 to 21 and into the 3 spot in the Big XII rank

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

DUSHEE went pretty easy on us, dropping us down to 10. Baylor now leads the country in Yardage Differential, coming in 3rd overall. Auburn had a big enough statistical lead that it remains 1 despite losing to now #2 MissSt. Marshall creeps up another spot ... if I get some time this week I'm want to focus on their performance. And Eastern Mich. almost pulled itself out of the cellar with their win but is still barely behind SMU for worst team in the country. Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Auburn

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

Once again, the Frogs were crushed by the weak performances of its prior opponents. Minnesota was blown out at home by Nebraska, Texas Tech struggled to beat an awful Kansas team, and most significantly, the team that took us to the brink last week was beat by 55 at home by Oklahoma. The last one, in particular, forced the dive that the Frogs took in DUSHEE this week, as you can see in the comparison of TCU's week-by-week DUSHEE scores as they stood after last week's games compared to this week:

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE still loves it some Ohio State.  The Buckeyes remain firmly in first place, despite their loss to Oklahoma.  In fact, OSU has had a top 3 DUSHEE score each of the last 5 weeks.  Here are their week-to-week totals (rows are opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score.)   @ Ind  OU  Army  UNLV @ Rut  Mary @ Neb 31.50 4.40 41.40

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

For all us glum TCU fans, DUSHEE comes in this Sunday morning with good news. One, despite hanging 73 on WVU, Baylor has fallen out of the top spot, ceding to Lee Corso's alma mater, Florida State. Two, despite losing to Oklahoma and showing only the slightest pulse of an offense, TCU is now on the cusp of the top 25. That's right Frog fans, despite how you feel today, DUSHEE is here to totally blow sunshine up your collective asses and boost your self esteem with participation ribbons galore!

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Auburn 42.88 297.20 43.00 2 Alabama 27.41 381.17 36.76 3 Oklahoma 33.75 203.80 32.38 4 Mississippi 29.19 254.13 31.78 5 Mississippi St. 32.15 177.70 30.05 6 Nebraska 24.69 219.84 27.12 7 TCU 29.06 154.03 26.84 8 Marshall 26.88 179.98 26.64 9 Ohio St. 24.76 172.54 24.87 10 Baylor 21.35 207.63 24.31 _______________________________________________ 11 Notre Dame 22.49 177.95 23.62 12 Stanford 24.17 150.79 23.42 13 LSU 24.08 139.02 22.80 14 Michig

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

The Frogs move back up to 9th in this week's rankings. Some of you may wonder, "What are you smoking, DUSHEE? We blow out Texas and drop 7 spots and then eek past Kansas State and go back up?" A look at the numbers reveals that a number of factors are at play. First, teams that were above the Frogs dropped, namely Oklahoma and USC. Oklahoma's loss to Texas dropped their DUSHEE score 14 points, meaning they are evaluated to be two touchdowns worse this week than they were evaluated to be last we

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2018)

Since this is late getting out, I'll keep the commentary to a minimum.  However, I'll revisit the Tech-TCU matchup because it is an interesting case study as to how the numbers change even when teams do not play.  As a teaser, Tech comes out of the bye better than the Frogs do ...   We have a new #1 as Clemson goes past Alabama to claim the top spot.    Top 3 Performances - Week 6 63.47 - Clemson at Wake (+60 MOV, 449 YM) 53.42 - Temple vs. ECU (+43, +274) 40.1

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2017 Season)

As the weeks progress, things in DUSHEE tend to settle out.  Extremes begin to regress to the mean.  Of the top 15 teams, 12 saw their DUSHEE score drop this week; of the bottom 15, 9 saw their DUSHEE score rise.   Baylor got hammered during their bye week, falling 28 spots and losing 11 points in their DUSHEE score primarily because each of their past opponents (UTSA, Duke, OU, and K-State) all lost.  The Bears went from ranked 24th to 52nd and a DUSHEE score of 15.91 to 4.87.  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE Rankings

Allow me to apologize in advance. Baylor is the number one team in the land according to DUSHEE. Now wait, wait. ... WAIT! Remember the discussion from the first NMMH blog post. Teams are not well "interconnected," as Sagarin puts it, at this point. Baylor's ranking is coming based on the results of two games, against Buffalo and ULaMon. And because Buffalo put a pretty decent whooping on UConn this week, Buffalo isn't looking as bad (51st) in the rankings as they probably are in reality. Han

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE (2018)

This week, DUSHEE has pretty much the same top 6 that everybody else has, although perhaps not in the same order ... Bama, Penn St., Clempson, Ohio St., UGa, and Noater.  After that, DUSHEE is still a little crazy with App. St. (they did fall 4 spots) and Kentucky next in line.  Our Frogs fell 5 spots to #33.   Top and Bottom Performances of the Week   Now that we are 5 weeks in, we can go back and see what the top and bottom DUSHEE-rated performances of each week were.  Keep

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE

To explain what happened to TCU in this week's poll, I'll ask all of you to go back into the repressed memories of the days after the Iowa State game last season and remember what happened prior to the release of the playoff seedings. Remember that coincident to our destruction of a mediocre-to-poor conference opponent, all of our best resume bullets took a hit: Oklahoma lost, Kansas State lost, Minnesota had lost the week before to a team that got destroyed by Ohio State that week. Things outsi

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Upon issuing this first ranking of the season, I'll proffer the same disclaimer that I did last season ... it's early. Really early. TCU has only played two games that factor into the ranking (Samford is ignored as an FCS). There's not a ton of data yet. So after week 5, DUSHEE is a big fan of the SEC. I know. It doesn't make me any happier than you. DUSHEE has the average SEC team 6 points better than the average Big 12 team, the second highest ranked conference. DUSHEE has the Big 12 just a s

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 14 DUSHEE

A lot of movement, although not at number 1. Much like the Frogs after Kansas, Baylor fell to 8 after struggling against Tech. DUSHEE loves Michigan State and Marshall, despite their loss, still remains high. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 23.72 193.23 25.16 2 Michigan St. 22.15 193.83 24.14 3 Ohio St. 22.86 170.19 23.47 4 TCU 24.21 136.86 22.76 5 Wisconsin 19.25 198.05 22.41 6 Marshall 20.93 156.93 21.54 7 Mississippi 21.89 141.68 21.44 8 Baylor 19.50 174.16 21.42 9 Orego

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE Rankings

Some shuffling this week, although not as much as you might expect. At this point in the season, each team has played 8-10 games against FBS competition, so even a big loss (e.g. Baylor to Okie St) doesn't dramatically swing teams, particularly teams at the top and bottom of the poll because the teams are more sparsely populated. There can still be a lot of movement in the middle of the poll because that's where the lion's share of teams are. But it was enough to allow Florida State to pass Bay

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE (2018)

Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points).  It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia.  Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team.  The biggest mover in the to

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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