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A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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A Historical Perspective on College Football (Part II -- The Power 5 and the Rest)

Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.   This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.   And away we go ...   Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II   TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded the Big 6 and Oklahoma State turned the conference into the Big 8.  Then when the SWC went belly up, half the conference merged with the Big 8 to form the Big 12.  In between, Texas and Oklahoma remained each other's primary rival, often to the chagrin of their in-state rivals.   The first chart shows the history of the conference after the expansion to 12.     At the time of the expansion, Nebraska was dominant, playing elite MNC-level football.  Colorado was at a peak but was about the start a slow decline after the McCartney era was exposed and Bill Snyder was getting Kansas State to a pretty elite level.  A&M comes in as the best program of the Texas schools but is in decline.     Then around 2002, Nebraska and Kansas State begin to decline and Texas and Oklahoma begin to rise and those two schools dominate the conference for the next decade.  It is at this point that Nebraska, Colorado, A&M, and Missouri leave, resulting in the entry of TCU and West Virginia.  Texas falls off while Oklahoma State and Baylor emerge as contenders with Oklahoma remaining pretty elite.   The 2005 Texas team ekes out the 2008 Oklahoma team as the best single season in the Big 12 history.  The 2014 Frogs are the highest rated team in the Big XII-II's short history.   The history of the Big 6/7/8 prior to the addition of the Texas schools appears below.     The Big 6/7/8 started out as the original Missouri Valley Conference, with Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa State as charter members with Drake and Washington (Mo).  Kansas State and Grinnell would join shortly after, and Oklahoma joined as Drake, Washington, and Grinnell dropped out of "big time" college football.  From 1928-1947, the conference was six teams.  The addition of Colorado (from the precursor of the WAC, see Part I) in 1948 made the conference seven, and Oklahoma State in 1960 (from the Missouri Valley) formed the Big 8.   During this entire time, the conference was pretty well dominated by two teams -- Nebraska and Oklahoma.  Nebraska dominated the first three decades up until WWII.  After the war, Oklahoma took over as the dominant team for two decades.  Then after the OU-NU hegemony was challenged for a few years by Missouri and Kansas in the early 1960s, Nebraska and Oklahoma vaulted to super-elite status in the late 1960s and remained there for the next two decades when Oklahoma fell apart after Barry Switzer left to coach the Cowboys and Colorado started to emerge.   The clear heyday of the Big 8 was the decade of the 70s when NU and OU were out-of-this-world good and even the perennial bottom-dwellers Kansas State and Iowa State put together decent programs.  Note that aside from this period, Kansas State was consistently atrocious from WWII until about 1990 when Bill Snyder came aboard.  The 1973 Oklahoma team was rated the best in conference history, but pretty much any Nebraska or Oklahoma team from 1970-1974 could have been considered one of the best of all time.   PAC12 (previously the Pacific Coast Conference/Athletic Association of Western Universities/PAC-8/PAC-10)   The schools that would become the PAC-8 started out in the Pacific Coast Conference with Idaho and Montana.  The plot below shows the conference during the PCC years.     Throughout these years, Idaho and Montana struggled to be competitive, generally always comprising the bottom of the standings.  USC emerged as the dominant team in the late 1920s and early 30s, but then came back to the pack prior to WWII.  From that point on, the conference was very evenly competitive with Stanford, Cal, and UCLA all vying for championships most years and many of the other teams, at least briefly, becoming competitive.   In 1959, the California schools and Washington rid themselves of the Oregon schools, Washington State, and Idaho (Montana had left the PCC in 1949) and formed the AAWU.  Washington State was let back in the club in 1962 and the Oregon schools in 1964 when the conference became known as the PAC-8.  For the purposes of continuity, the following chart, which shows the conference from 1960 on, doesn't reflect these rejections and readmittances.     With the official formation of the PAC-8, USC reemerged as the dominant program through the early 1980s (by which point the Arizona schools had moved over from the WAC, see Part I) followed by strong years from UCLA and Washington in the late 80s and 90s.  Note that the USC program at the time of the Sun Bowl was going through its lowest point since the early 1960s.  One of the many ways in which the football gods were smiling on us in 1998.  The Trojans once again re-emerge as the dominant team of the mid-to-late 2000s and then Oregon leveraged that Nike money to get good in the current decade.  Utah and Colorado join in the 2011 season with Utah being solid, middle-of-the-pack and Colorado mostly battling with Washington State for the cellar.   Aside from an extended two decades of bad play from Oregon State at the end of the last century, the PAC has been a pretty competitive conference throughout.  The best ever single season was the 1972 USC team and the highest program marks were reached by the Pete Carroll USC teams of the mid 2000s and the USC teams of the early 1930s.   SEC (previously the Southern Conference)   If you thought the 16-team WAC was the most insane conference ever devised, you probably weren't around for the Southern Conference, which was the precursor of both the SEC and the ACC.  The teams that founded both of those conferences plus a whole bunch of other teams played together in the Southern Conference, which at its greatest extent was a TWENTY-THREE team conference.  It is not immediately obvious how scheduling was handled during this time; there were no official divisions but it does seem like the schools who would become the SEC mostly played each other and the schools that became the ACC mostly played each other.  Some schools played eight conference games; others played four.   The chart below shows the ridiculous history of the Southern Conference up to the time when the SEC split in 1933.  I don't expect you to be able to figure out which squiggle belongs to which school.  Just trust me when I tell you that the top squiggles chronologically are Vanderbilt (yes, Vanderbilt was once good in football), Auburn, Georgia Tech, Alabama, and Tennessee.  The 1917 Rambin' Wreck was the dominant single season team of the era.     The conference at this time also included schools like Tulane, Sewanee, Washington and Lee, and the Virginia Military Institute.  The last two of these teams were left out of the SEC  but remained in the Southern Conference along with most of the teams that would become the ACC.   Next we see the early years of the SEC.  Sewanee hangs on until 1939, battling Mississippi State for the cellar.  Tulane is initially quite competitive, with a 5-year MAV that generally hovered just below Alabama, Tennessee, and an emerging LSU up until WWII.  After the war, Tulane falls off, replaced by Georgia and Georgia Tech, the latter of which became the clear dominant team in the mid-1950s.  Mississippi, which was a clear bottom-feeder in the Southern Conference caps off a slow ascent and becomes the top program in the conference in the late 1950s and early 60s when Alabama takes over.      It is at this point that Georgia Tech and Tulane leave the conference; Tech still very competitive (Tulane not as much).  It is also at this point that Kentucky, Vandy, and Mississippi State set up shop as the bottom programs in the conference, a distinction they will maintain through most of the remaining history of the conference.     Alabama remains the dominant team of the 70s and early 80s when the retirement of Bear Bryant marks the beginning of their decline as a program (although still good enough to grab an MNC for Gene Stallings in 1992).  During Bama's decline, Florida, Ole Miss, and Georgia rise until the early 1990s when Florida and Tennessee pull ahead of the rest of the conference where they will stay for about a decade.  South Carolina and Arkansas join the conference at this time, staying firmly middle-of-the-pack throughout their history.   As we all know, Alabama has re-emerged as the dominant team in the conference over the last half decade, during which time A&M and Missouri join the conference, also shoring up the middle of the conference.   The best ever single season for the SEC was the 1971 Alabama team and 1975 marked the pinnacle of the Alabama program, although another few strong years from Nick Saban might get the most recent incarnation of the Tide in the same rarefied air.   ACC (preceded by the same Southern Conference)   For the first three decades in the history of the ACC, refer to the first chart in the SEC section above.  Trust me, they're in there.  After the SEC splits, the Southern Conference becomes a little easier to digest.     You'll note that at the time of the SEC split, the top programs in the Southern Conference were most of the ones that left, with the notable exception of Mississippi State.  In the vacuum left by the SEC schools, Duke and UNC rose quickly, and in particular Duke (yes, Duke) was the dominant force in the Southern Conference up until the ACC formed in 1953.  Schools were added to the conference in the wake of the SEC split including Wake Forest and then Virginia left after 1937 only to return after the ACC formation.  Once again, the newly formed conference split from the poorer performers as Davidson, Richmond, Virginia Tech, the Citadel, VMI and Furman, many of whom had been added with Wake Forest back in the late 1930s.   Compared to the other 'Power 5' conferences, the ACC has easily the least auspicious beginnings.  Maryland emerges as the first dominant team in the ACC but falls off quickly and then the conference slides into a pretty mediocre state.  Duke, NC State, and UNC all take turns as the "top" program in the conference but by 1970 (the year South Carolina leaves and goes independent) the ACC has more teams with below average MAVs than above average.  If I were to tell you in 1970 that between the ACC and SWC one conference was going to collapse and the other was going to become one of the five elite conferences in college football, I think most people would have put their money on the ACC for the collapse.  But the conference made some very strategic moves that the SWC didn't make. Like ...     ... making wise expansion choices.  The ACC initially added Georgia Tech in 1983.  Georgia Tech was not immediately a big player in the conference and Maryland, UNC, and Clemson all made big improvements in play in the late 70s and early 80s.  Then everybody except Clemson fell off and the conference started looking pretty mediocre again until they scored Florida State who would thoroughly dominate the ACC from 1992 until their next expansion move in 2004.  This move was the first of two death blows the ACC landed on the Big East, grabbing Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC.  This immediately added two teams that would become mainstays at the top of the conference, even if Miami would never replicate their Big East success.  Then they ACC landed the second blow, adding Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse.  Combined with Duke and Wake showing some improvement of late making the bottom of the conference not look so atrocious, the ACC is now a clear "Power 5," even if arguably the weakest.   The best ever ACC team was the 1993 Florida State team.   B1G   The Big 10 began with seven teams in 1896 (shown below back to 1892 because the data was there) -- Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and U of Chicago.  Indiana and Iowa joined in 1899 and Ohio State in 1912, giving the league ten actual teams until Chicago left in 1939.  The chart below shows the conference for this era.  The conference was pretty equitable during its first 5 decades with Purdue and Minnesota dominating the 1890s, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Chicago the 1900s, Minnesota the 1910s, Michigan the 1920s, and Minnesota, Purdue, Ohio State and even Northwestern all vying for supremacy during the Depression.  Only Indiana never really maintained a competitive program at any point of the conference's early years.  Clearly, by WWII, the University of Chicago was struggling to remain competitive.   The 1940 Michigan and Minnesota teams edge out the 1917 Minnesota team as the best single-season teams during this era.     Once Chicago drops, the Big 10 had nine teams for 14 years until Michigan State was added in 1953.  It's not only the modern Big 10 that can't seem to maintain the correct number of teams.    After WWII, Michigan has the first extended era of dominance from 1942 through 1952.  Parity reigned again through most of the 50s and 60s with Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue all staking a claim to the top program in the conference during the period.  Once again, Indiana is really the only program never to get consistently into the upper echelon during this period.      By 1970, several Big 10 programs have taken severe downturns, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and most notably Northwestern which goes from a MAV of 15 in 1962 to -10 by 1980, about where the U of Chicago was when they dropped out of the conference 40 years before.  In a trend of one- or two-team dominance that is noticeable in most of the major conferences in the 1970s (Texas and Arkansas in the SWC, Oklahoma and Nebraska in the Big 8, Alabama in the SEC, USC in the PAC-10), the Big 10 is dominated by Michigan and Ohio State throughout the decade.  The 1947 Michigan team, 1973 Ohio State team, and 1944 Ohio State team were the best of the era.   Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan, come down to the pack a little in the 1980s as Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State improve.  In the 90s, the conference becomes a three-headed monster with the admittance of Penn State in 1993 (making the Big 10 eleven), the resurgence of Ohio State, and continued elite play of Michigan throughout the decade.  The new millennia sees Penn State decline leaving Ohio State and Michigan at the top.  Michigan finally starts to decline in the late 2000s, replaced by Penn State and Wisconsin as Ohio State's primary competition over the last decade.  Wisconsin's resurgence in the 1990s is stark, going from bottom-dwellers (with Northwestern) in 1990 to top-tier status in two decades.  During this time, Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, and of course Indiana are never particularly competitive.   Also during this time, the conference adds Nebraska (2011), Maryland (2014), and Rutgers (2014).  Only Nebraska is above average since joining.  The 1994 Penn State team is the top team of the era.     Big East and the Eastern Independents   The Big East started as a basketball conference in the 1979 but in 1991 became a football conference.  The conference was formed from the Big East basketball schools that played D1-A football (BC, Syracuse, and Pitt) and from a number of other eastern independents (Miami, WVU, Rutgers, VaTech, and Temple).  Notre Dame, while never football member of the Big East, is included here because they were among the eastern independents from which the conference was born and played in the conference in other sports.  Army and Navy are also included in these charts for any years where they weren't parts of other conferences (e.g., Army in CUSA starting in 1998)     The conference was immediately dominated by Miami, coming into the conference at their zenith.  Lou Holtz had Notre Dame riding high at this point as well.  By 2000, Miami had come down a little and Syracuse and Virginia Tech emerged as serious contenders.  Then in 2004, the Big East's two bellwethers at the time, Miami and Virginia Tech left for the ACC, followed by Boston College the following year.  Those schools were replaced by UConn (a Big East basketball school moving up to play D1-A football), and Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida from CUSA, but the death spiral had begun.  WVU emerged as the class of the conference during these final years before leaving for the Big XII-II after the 2011 season.  Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville leave for the ACC the following year and the conference folds.   The 2001 Miami team was the best single season in Big East history.   Prior to the formation of the Big East, most of the eastern schools, particularly in the north and mid-Atlantic where the ACC and SEC didn't have a footprint, played as independents.  In some respects they were in a de facto conference as most of these schools played each other on a yearly basis, or nearly so, but they never officially formed.  Not until the Big East.   The military academies and Penn State had SRS numbers dating back to the 1890s.  Army is the dominant team in these early years, followed by Pitt and Notre Dame starting around 1915.  Knute Rockne had Notre Dame as the dominant force in the northeast during the 1920s and early 30s when Pitt emerges again just before WWII.  The war drives Pitt into a prolonged funk that lasts until they recruit Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino but launches Notre Dame and the military academies, particularly Army, to stratospheric heights.     After the war, Notre Dame and the academies come back to Earth (albeit Notre Dame more slowly) and by 1960 the northeast is lacking in many good programs.  Syracuse and Penn State are the best of a tepid lot.  Rutgers, as always, is terrible at this time.  Then in the late 1960s, Ara Parseghian returns Notre Dame to elite status while Penn State, Pitt, and Florida State all emerge by 1980 into serious national contenders.   The 1943 Notre Dame team was the greatest team of the Independent era and arguably the best of all time.  I'm not sure why Notre Dame got so much talent during the war when so many other non-military academy schools struggled, but alas they did.   SBC/CUSA   The Sun Belt, much like her other "mid-major" brethren, has been turned over, almost entirely by the ACC/Big East/AAC/CUSA/WAC upheaval of the last few years, and so their chart is also a bit of a mess.  The SBC was created in 1976 but didn't become a D1-A/FBS conference until the 2001 season. with Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, North Texas, Idaho, and Louisiana-Monroe as the founding football members.  Utah State and Troy joined in the following two years.  Then the shuffling started.   In 2005, Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State left to join the WAC after the MWC pilfered the WAC to replace TCU, Utah, and BYU.  The Sun Belt adds Floridas Atlantic and International, then Western Kentucky in 2009.  Eight years later, the SBC sheds MTSU, FIU, FAU, and UNT when all leave to go to CUSA after the AAC forms with mostly CUSA teams.  Western Kentucky follows suit a year later.  New Mexico State and Idaho return after the WAC collapses and are joined by Texas State, Appalachian State, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State during the 2013-2014 seasons, most of whom playing their first FBS football.   So the chart below has all of these teams, plus the teams that are still remaining in the current version of CUSA.  It is a mess.  Make what you will of it ...     MAC   And last but not least, we take a look at the history of MACtion.  The MAC was formed in 1946 and became a D1-A conference in 1962 with Ohio, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Toledo, Kent State, Bowling Green, and Marshall and the seven initial members.  Marshall was booted after the 1969 season then Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State and Northern Illinois were all added between 1971-1975.  During most of this time, the conference was led by Miami, interrupted by a brief meteoric rise and fall of Toledo around 1970.   After 1980, the conference as a whole started a slow decline with no program having a better than average MAV from 1982 until 1997.  During this time Central Michigan, Bowling Green, and Miami all vied for the top spot in the conference.  Northern Illinois left after the 1985 season, replaced by Akron in 1992.  Then in 1997, Northern Illinois and Marshall returned, with Marshall immediately becoming the top team in the conference until the left again to go to CUSA in 2005.  Buffalo was added in 1998.  The conference then had brief experiments with Central Florida, Temple, and Massachusetts from 2000-2015, during which time conference play improved and NIU, CMU, and Toledo emerged as the top conference teams.   The best ever MAC program was the Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami Red Hawks in 2003.  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective of College Football (Part 1 -- TCU-centric)

If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.   Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football SRS scores have been calculated throughout most of the whole history of college football, even back into the 1890's in some cases.   This first post will look at the conferences that TCU has been a part of.  The next post will look at the rest of college football.  We'll start the same way we started the basketball post, by looking at the Texas colleges   Texas Schools Here is the history of Texas college football teams going back to 1903, when the first SRS scores for Texas, A&M, and TCU were calculated.  According to the SRS metric, the 1947 Texas team is the best team in the history of the state while the Longhorns of the early 1970s was the best program.  The 1955 Horned Frogs were the best TCU team by the SRS metric, followed closely by the 1938 MNC team and the 2014 team.  Also note that other than the Houston Cougars of the early 1970s, those late 1950's Frogs were the best program in the history of the state that didn't wear burnt orange.     Acknowledging that this is a busy chart, we break up this history into 3 eras.  The first couple of decades of the 20th century were dominated by Texas and A&M, but things start getting a little more competitive around the time the Great Depression hits:     There have only been 3 significant eras in which Texas was not the dominant team in the state.  The first two, from 1930-1940 and from 1956-1961, were dominated by the Horned Frogs.  World War II was bad for every Texas team, except the Longhorns, the only school whose moving SRS trended up during the war.  Another interesting trend is that the performance of the private schools seems to be pretty closely correlated during this time.  While TCU tended to peak higher than the others, when TCU was good, SMU, Rice, and to a lesser extent, Baylor (they got good in the '50s, not so much in the '30s) were also good.  When TCU was bad, all the private schools tended to be bad.   Then comes the protracted dismal mediocrity of TCU football leading up to the dissolution of the SWC ...     This period of time shows most of the third era not dominated by UT, the Sherrill/Slocum A&M years which emerge from the precipitous decline of SMU after the death penalty and the wild oscillations of Houston, caught in a morbid cycle of cheating and draconian punishment.  We'll talk a little more about the collapse of the SWC in the next section.   Then we have the post-SWC years:     This era is notable for the slow and steady rise of the Frogs, the bottoming out and then rapid ascent of Baylor, and then the emergence of perhaps a 4th era of non-Longhorn dominance with Baylor, TCU, and A&M outperforming Texas over the last 3-4 years.   SWC Again, since the SWC was pretty much the same schools as above, sans UTEP, UNT, and Texas State, avec Arkansas, and Tech and Houston only appear after they joined, respectively, this will look similar to the above chart.     Perhaps the thing that stands out the most to me is the fact that Arkansas was a non-factor in the conference until 1960 or so.  And they had fallen off significantly from their early 80s high before they left for the SEC in 1992.  Which indicates that it wasn't the move to the SEC that hurt the Hogs; they had been sliding toward mediocrity for the better part of the decade prior.   The next chart shows the early years.  The short tenures of the Oklahoma schools are included, but not Southwestern's sole year as a member.  SMU was added as Oklahoma left and TCU was added as Oklahoma State (nee Oklahoma A&M) left.  Not surprisingly, the AP MNC teams (1939 A&M and 1938 TCU) were the best teams of this era.     Next we see the true heyday of the conference, from the end of WWII through the early 1960's.  From 1947-1961 (and if you ignore Tech who struggled for a number of years after being admitted to the SWC, you can expand the time frame out to 1968), not a single program in the conference had a below average 5-year MAV.  By the end of this heyday, Texas and Arkansas had clearly separated from the rest of the conference and the other schools were all in states of relative decline, but until the late 1960's, every program in the conference was better than most.  Despite the parity during these years, Texas was the dominant program throughout, save for the brief era of Frog predominance in the late 50s -- the seven best individual seasons during this time were all by the Longhorns, the best being the 1947 team.     Then we come to the end.  If you take a snapshot of the early 80s, the conference still looks pretty salty.  Texas and Arkansas have come back to the pack a little bit but are still very good.  Jackie Sherrill has begun to make A&M relevant, Houston comes into the league immediately competitive, and SMU gets really good.  Of course, in hindsight, we know why this all happened ... A&M, Houston, and SMU were all blatantly cheating.  But setting that aside, the SWC circa 1980 is still a damn fine football conference.   But then things go bad quickly.  A&M, Houston, and SMU all get hit with NCAA sanctions and fall precipitously.  Texas and Arkansas continue to slide.  Then Arkansas bolts to the SEC.  Houston miraculously starts getting good again, then gets busted for cheating again, and then gets really bad very quickly.     A few notes about the 1984 TCU team.  A common mythology about the Wacker-led Frogs is that the team was on the verge of ascendancy before the NCAA levied the "Living Death Penalty" on the Frogs in 1985.  However, based on the SRS metric at least, there isn't a lot of evidence to support either an emerging Frog powerhouse or a sharp decline after the sanctions hit.  The 1984 team was the beneficiary of a particularly weak conference that year.  TCU had an SRS around 6 (i.e., the Frogs were about 6 points better, on average, than an average college football team), which is good, especially compared to the teams immediately before and after, but not spectacular.  The teams with higher SRS that season, SMU, Arkansas, and Texas, were all only a few points higher than the Frogs that year.  And when looking at the 5-year MAV, the Frogs had climbed a little from their late 1970s low, but the program was remarkably and consistently mediocre from 1979 through the end of the conference, staying between an SRS of 0 to -5.  Compare the Frog's MAV to Houston's over the same time period.  Cougar fans could reasonably argue that they suffered two "Living Death Penalties" over a 15-year period, with two performance declines that followed NCAA sanctions that rivaled the decline SMU suffered after the Actual Death Penalty.   Which leads to another point.  At the time when the conference collapsed, there were four teams with above average MAVs and four teams with below average MAVs.  All politics aside, it was the four above average teams that were invited to the Big 12 and the four below average teams that were left behind.  In some alternate universe, if Houston had not suffered the severe NCAA sanctions imposed during the Jenkins era and had remained at least above average for the remaining half-decade, would the Cougars have bumped Baylor or Tech as the fourth invitee to the Big 12?  Houston never had the political clout that Baylor had, and probably not even the clout Tech had, but would the legislature have felt pressure to get the other state school invited?  Enough to get five Texas teams invited to the Big 12?  Or would that have caused Nebraska to blow the whole merger up before it started?  If Houston had stayed good, would there have been a Big 12?   All told, the SWC at the time of the collapse was an awfully mediocre football conference.  Probably more on par with the MWC conference we played in (perhaps not even as strong at the top as that conference, but probably not quite as weak at the bottom either) than with the current slate of "Power 5" conferences.   But of course, that alternate universe is not ours.  In ours, the Frogs then joined the ...   WAC/MWC (preceded by the Rocky Mountain/Mountain States Athletic/Skyline Conference)   As was the case with the basketball charts, the WAC/MWC chart is a holy mess of schools across multiple conferences.  Since I was primarily interested in the dynastic strength of programs over time more than a rigorous history of conference membership, I thought it more interesting to look at programs across conferences.  So forgive the messiness ...   The first chart shows the conference around the time of TCU's inclusion.     As we entered, BYU was still king with an emergent Colorado State and Air Force.  And you can see right off the bat why the "Gang of 5" might have been less than enthused about the teams added to their conference.  Rice, TCU, SMU, Tulsa, San Jose, and UNLV all come in in 1996 as well below average teams; of the members prior to that season, only the soon-to-be abandoned UTEP was as bad as the six new teams.  The MWC splits after the 1998 season, leaving all the new additions behind and Urban Meyer's Utes begin to ascend, topped off by the best ever WAC/MWC team in 2004.  Boise joins the WAC after we leave in 2000, becoming with Fresno, the only good WAC programs for much of the 2000s.   TCU joins the MWC in 2005 and the conference quickly becomes the three-headed Hydra monster of TCU, Utah, and BYU.  A declining Fresno leaves Boise as the only good team in the WAC and they join the MWC after Utah and BYU bolt in 2011.  The WAC folds as a football conference after the 2012 season and the MWC is left with a declining Boise, and a sharply ascendant Utah State and San Diego State.   The next chart shows the WAC prior to the failed 16-team experiment.  This conference started out as the Rocky Mountain Conference and included Colorado, Colorado College, Colorado School of Mines, Denver, and Utah State.  The Colorado schools were all pretty dominant in the early days of the conference but began to decline rapidly as World War II approached and were not invited to the Mountain States/Skyline Conference when it formed in 1938.  Utah had the first period of dominance in the early Depression era.  BYU was surprisingly uncompetitive and remained so all the way into the early 1970s.     After WWII, Colorado leaves and joins the then Big 7 and is replaced by Montana.  In 1963, the WAC was formed, leaving out Montana, Denver, and Utah State and adding New Mexico, Arizona, and Arizona State.  ASU is one of, if not the, dominant program in the conference (bumping Wyoming's decade-long run of relative dominance) until they and Arizona leave for the PAC 10 after the 1977 season.  UTEP joins in 1968, and after the Arizona schools leave, San Diego State, Hawaii, and Air Force join in consecutive years.  At this point, BYU emerges as the dominant program.   CUSA/AAC   Ever so briefly, the Frogs were in Conference USA.  CUSA was formed the year after the SWC dissolved, with Houston landing there while the rest of the SWC rejects went to the WAC.  Many of the founding members of CUSA were playing as football independents prior to forming the conference, but most had spent some time in the Missouri Valley Conference at some point.  A lot of teams have come in and out of CUSA and most of the original members are now in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) which formed after the dissolution of the Big East as a football conference.  In the chart below, the schools shown after the formation of the AAC are a hodge-podge of teams currently in both conferences, but I didn't include many of the WAC and Sun Belt teams that moved to CUSA after the AAC split.  The chart is busy enough already, and those teams are accounted for in Part 2.     When the conference formed, USM, ECU, Louisville, and Memphis all enter having been consistently average over the previous decade.  Cincinnati had been pretty bad in the early 1990s but had pulled themselves up to nearly average by the time the CUSA formed.  Tulsa, who had largely been in league with these other schools, went to the WAC initially, but joined CUSA with SMU and Rice after they defected from the WAC.   The first decade of CUSA was dominated buy Southern Miss.  Tulane was bad at the outset of the conference, but became competitive in quickly with the Shaun King-led undefeated 1998 team, then quickly faded back into mediocrity.  Louisville was becoming ascendant just as they left to join the Big East, culminating with the best ever CUSA season in 2004.  The ascendant Louisville years coincide with TCU's brief tenure in the conference, and USM, Louisville, and TCU all battled for conference supremacy in the early 2000, but all three programs were far from world-beaters at the time with SRS MAVs around 5.   In 2005, the conference underwent a wholesale change of members as Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF went to the Big East, TCU went to the Mountain West, and Army went Independent.  Tulsa, SMU, Rice, and UTEP came over from the WAC; UCF joined, and Marshall moved from the MAC.  From this point, the conference has seen the emergence of Houston, Tulsa, and UCF.   The next chart shows the history of most of the founding members of CUSA before starting the conference.  This history includes a very incomplete history of some of the Missouri Valley teams that showed up on their schedules often throughout their histories.     Of all the CUSA founders, Tulsa has been playing "big time" college football the longest, dating back to their inclusion in the Missouri Valley prior to the Great Depression.  At that time the conference included former SWC outcast Oklahoma State/A&M and schools like Grinnell, Creighton, Drake, and Washington(Mo).  Tulsa largely dominated these early years.  As many of these schools began to drop down in classification and Oklahoma State left to join the Big 8, Cincinnati and North Texas appear in the mid 1950s followed by Memphis, USM, Louisville and New Mexico State in the 1960s.  Tulane leaves the SEC and starts playing many of these schools in 1966 and East Carolina appears in 1977.  Memphis was the strongest team of the group during the 1960s.  The 70s saw Memphis, Tulane, and ECU battling for supremacy and the 80s saw the dominance of USM.   Tune in next week when we talk about the Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II and the rest of college football.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016-2017 TCU Basketball In Perspective

In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.   A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success had by the Killer Frogs of the mid-1980s.  But that pinnacle consisted of a single NCAA tournament bid, followed by an unceremonious 1st round exit at the hands of a 12-seed Florida State team, and two NIT bids.   The Frogs have made the NCAA tournament seven times (1952, 1953, 1959, 1968, 1971, 1987, and 1998), but four of those times were in the 1950's and 60's, when the NCAA tournament was arguably less prestigious than the NIT. The 1953, 1968 and 1971 teams were 16-9, 15-11 and 15-12, respectively.   This season was the Frogs' seventh NIT bid (1983, 1986, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2017).   Then there were all the years in between.  Since 1950, the Frogs have had 19 seasons of single digit wins   So how special was the 2017 Frogs NIT run in the program's history?  How does it compare to the other teams in the conference and in the state?  Just how dismal has TCU basketball been otherwise?   To assess this, I went to College Basketball Reference and used their SRS metric (Simple Rating System), which uses a similar approach as DUSHEE, to plot team performance as a function of time.  SRS, like DUSHEE, provides a relative performance compared to an average team (SRS = 0).  College Basketball reference only has SRS calculated back to the 1949-1950 season.    Then, in addition to a marker for each team's performance in a given year, I plotted a 5-year moving average (MAV) for each team as an indicator of program strength during the time the senior class was at the school.  Thus the MAV value in a given year, say 2000, is the average SRS score of the 1995-1996, 1996-1997,1997-1998, 1998-1999, and 1999-2000 seasons.  By following the MAV curve, you can qualitatively assess when a program is ascendant, declining, or keeping performance level.  Because I'm plotting the MAV in the last year of the 5-year envelope, it will often appear that the MAV is lagging the actual year-to-year performance.   Texas Schools:   This plot is the collective basketball history of most of the Texas D-1 schools since 1950, the bold purple line showing TCU's MAV.  From 1955 until 1984, TCU was a below average D-1 program during that three decade period.  For a 5-year stretch in the late 1970's, TCU and Rice needed binoculars to be able to see the rest of the state; and the rest of the state, particularly outside of Houston and UTEP, wasn't all that spectacular.  That's just how bad TCU was during that stretch.   But the Frogs did become sharply ascendant during the end of that period, becoming solidly middle-of-the-pack in the state in the late 1980s (Jamie Dixon's tenure as a player) before a slow decline through the mid-1990s.  Then Tubbs made the program sharply ascendant again, briefly challenging Tom Penders' UT teams as the best program in the state before another steady decline into another decade of mediocrity from 2005-2015.   But if you look at the tip of that peak during the Tubbs' era, and look for the little purple triangles that mark the year-to-year SRS scores for TCU around that peak, you can see that the peak is largely driven by one single year, the 1997-1998 NCAA team.  Based on the SRS metric, that team had the highest score of any team in the state from 1985 forward, and behind only the 1968 and 1983 Houston teams since 1950.  Also note that this past season's TCU team has the second highest SRS score of any TCU team, the only other TCU team to exceed a single season SRS over 15.   Houston and UTEP dominated the state from the mid-1960s until almost the mid-1990s, when Texas became the most consistently high-performing team in the conference, which it held until about 2012.  SMU showed some early dominance in the 1950s and Baylor has emerged the top power in the state over the last few years.   Southwest Conference:   This chart has a lot of the same data as the previous chart, but includes only the SWC teams for the years in which the teams were actually in the conference.  So Tech arrives in 1961, Houston doesn't arrive until 1977, and Arkansas, which wasn't included in the previous figure, disappears after 1992, four years before everybody else disappears.  Perhaps the most interesting thing to note here is how awful a basketball conference the SWC was during most of the 1960s and 1970s.  From 1968-1973, there was not a single SWC program with an above-average SRS 5-year MAV.  And even into the 1980s, only the addition of Houston and the ascendancy of Nolan Richardson's Hogs made the conference look halfway respectable.  Arkansas left on a very high note; its 1990-1991 team had, by far, the highest SRS score (27.3) in the conference from 1950 on.   WAC/MWC:   As we all remember, after the demise of the SWC, we joined the new and "improved" 16-team WAC, which shortly after we joined broke apart into the MWC and the Leftovers WAC.  This hybrid chart shows all the teams that were in the WAC prior to the MWC split and then the teams that joined the WAC after the split; thus after 1998, this chart shows all the teams in both conferences.  Thus TCU shows up twice, from 1996-1997 through 2000-2001 as a part of the WAC, and then from 2005-2006 through 2011-2012 as a part of the MWC.  The "WAC Folds" line marks when the WAC ceased to exist as a football conference; I recognize that the WAC still has life as a basketball conference, but a man only has so much time to account for so many basketball teams.  Note that during this time, while Utah, Tulsa, BYU, UNLV, UNM, and Fresno all vied for the best program in these conferences, the 1997-1998 TCU team has the highest single season SRS score.  In fact, even if you take the WAC back to it's predecessor days (next chart), that TCU team had the highest SRS in conference history, dating back to 1950.  Higher than Rick Majerus', Keith Van Horn-led, Final Four Utes, higher than Bill Self's best Tulsa team.     Conference USA/American Athletic:   This chart, like the WAC/MWC one, shows multiple related conferences on one chart; the teams that formed the original CUSA, the core of which formed the eventual American Athletic Conference, leaving behind a gutted and transformed CUSA.  I didn't try to add all the new teams in the modern CUSA.  This conference was always dominated by three teams, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis.  TCU was already on the way down from their 1998 peak and was never really a factor in this conference.   Big 7/8/XII/XII-II:   Our current home.  TCU and Tech have battled for the cellar of the Big XII-II throughout our short time in the conference, but both teams appear to be sharply ascendant.  This chart goes a long way to show just how good a basketball conference this is right now.  Going back to the very first chart with all the Texas teams and the current TCU program is squarely middle-of-the-pack. In the Big XII-II, we are, by this metric, the worst team in the conference, and with Tech, the two worst programs by a significant margin.   The other interesting thing to note, going back historically, is that from 1950 to 1980 or so, while Kansas was (with Kansas State) the best program in the conference, it was only by nature of a fairly weak conference.  Kansas really didn't become a true national power (by the SRS metric, at least) until it and (Billy Tubbs-led) Oklahoma began to rise in the late-1980s.  Then, unlike Oklahoma, Kansas has stayed at an elite level over the better part of the last three decades.  No one has really come close to Kansas' supremacy since OU's decline in the early-1990s.   The best ever Big XII team based on SRS?  The 1987-1988 Oklahoma team coached by one Billy Tubbs.  The SRS metric seems to really like Billy, Chuck ...   Completing TCU's basketball journey to date, let's take a look at some of the other major conferences' histories.   Big East:   I figured I'd start with our coach's old conference, to give a sense of what he and Ben Howland did with the Pitt program prior to coming to TCU.  The Big East formed as a basketball conference beginning with the 1979-1980 season with members from a number of other conferences.  At the time of its formation, Notre Dame (which didn't actually join the conference until a few years later), Syracuse, and Georgetown were the top teams until the mid-1990s.  At that point, UConn became and remained the top program in the conference until about 2005 when a bunch of teams, including Pitt (bold blue line), Louisville, Villanova, and WVU all reached about the same consistent level until the football schools all left the Big East after the 2012-2013 season.  Aside from a brief rise from 1985-1990, Pitt basketball had not been anything other than a pretty average program, and sometimes terrible (around 1970).   PAC 12:   Those John Wooden UCLA teams were pretty good.   SEC:   The late-2000s Florida team is the only program to be able to say it was clearly better than Kentucky over the last seven decades.   ACC:   The ACC started out as kinda a crappy basketball conference.  From 1970 on, however, pretty salty.   B1G:   Perhaps the most evenly competitive of all the major conferences. Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin , and even Purdue have all had at least a brief claim to be the best program in the conference.  Only Northwestern has been consistently mediocre over the last seven decades.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview

This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking.    ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the difference in two teams' scores is effectively the point spread between the two teams.   For 28 of the 39 bowl games, DUSHEE, Sagarin, FPI and Vegas come to a unanimous consensus about the favorite, although there can be considerable variation among the four as to the point spread.   Since there are two formulations for DUSHEE, 1) the original which looks solely at point and yardage margins compared to how the other teams compared against the same opponent, and 2) the revised which deemphasizes statistical outliers and emphasizes strength-of-schedule, I'll provide numbers for both formulations and the average of the two to see how well each of the three predict outcomes.   First, we'll start with the bowl our readers probably care about the most ... the Cactus Bowl.   Liberty Bowl   Just kidding.  The Liberty Bowl is one of the 11 bowl games where the 4 predictors do not come to a consensus and is one of two where the lack of consensus comes from the Vegas bookies.  Here are the numbers for the two teams:   Team Record    DO    DR Sag FPI SoS Georgia  7-5 1.51 2.18 73.19 7.40 0.73 TCU  6-6 3.55 5.03 74.53 10.10 1.16   In the following table and all of the ones that follow, DO means DUSHEE Original Formulation, DR is DUSHEE Revised, DA is the average of the two DUSHEE models, Sag is Sagarin and FPI is, well, FPI.  Ignore the sign in front of the number; it is just used to account for which of the two teams is the favorite.   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI TCU  -2.04 TCU  -2.85 TCU  -2.44 Georgia  1 TCU  -1.34 TCU  -2.7   The "computer" models all agree that the Frogs are a slight favorite with Sagarin at roughly 1.5-points and DUSHEE Revised at almost 3-points.  However, Vegas, at the moment, has the Dawgs as a 1-point favorite.  As we will see, the agreement between the models (a range of less than 4-points between all of the predictors) is quite tight compared to some of the other games.   New Years Six   Orange: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Florida St.  9-3 15.99 21.43 87.35 21.50 5.55 Michigan  10-2 32.77 36.95 99.74 27.80 3.18 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Michigan  -16.79 Michigan  -15.52 Michigan  -16.15 Michigan  -6.5 Michigan  -12.39 Michigan  -6.3   The models are unanimous that Michigan is the favorite, but DUSHEE and Sagarin think Michigan is a significantly larger favorite than either Vegas or the FPI does.   Peach: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Alabama  13-0 37.11 45.21 105.37 31.70 6.77 Washington  12-1 24.52 26.25 97.89 26.10 -0.22 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Alabama  12.60 Alabama  18.96 Alabama  15.78 Alabama  16.5 Alabama  7.48 Alabama  5.6   In this case, DUSHEE and Vegas are on the same page, placing Alabama as a 2TD+ favorite, but Sagarin and the FPI have the game at a TD or less.   Fiesta: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Clemson  12-1 25.65 30.08 94.50 25.80 3.99 Ohio St.  11-1 34.82 40.78 102.06 28.10 5.37 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Ohio St.  -9.17 Ohio St.  -10.71 Ohio St.  -9.94 Ohio St.  -3 Ohio St.  -7.56 Ohio St.  -2.3   Like the Orange Bowl, DUSHEE and Sagarin agree that Ohio State is a 7-10 point favorite but Vegas and the FPI have the game around a field goal.   Cotton: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS W. Michigan  13-0 17.94 15.09 84.62 13.00 -5.60 Wisconsin  10-3 17.82 22.13 90.62 17.80 5.14 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI W. Michigan  0.12 Wisconsin  -7.04 Wisconsin  -3.46 Wisconsin  -7.5 Wisconsin  -6.00 Wisconsin  -4.8   The Cotton Bowl illuminates the difference between the two DUSHEE formulations.  Western Michigan and Wisconsin have the biggest strength-of-schedule disparity of any two bowl opponents.  Original DUSHEE, which does account for strength of schedule but does not emphasize it to the degree that Revised DUSHEE does, has Western Michigan as an ever-so-slight favorite.  Revised DUSHEE, Sagarin, and Vegas all have Wisconsin at about a TD favorite, with the FPI putting the game a little closer.  This will be an interesting game to see play out.   Rose: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Penn St.  11-2 16.69 19.59 91.97 18.00 3.37 USC  9-3 16.41 21.29 90.65 20.30 4.99 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Penn St.  0.28 USC  -1.70 USC  -0.71 USC  -7 Penn St.  1.32 USC  -2.3   The Rose is another interesting case in that all the models have the game as a near toss-up except for Vegas which has the Trojans as a TD favorite.  It is conceivable that bettors are giving USC a home-field advantage boost which would account for some of the disparity, but even with the 3-points, Vegas likes USC more than any of the computer models do.   Sugar: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Auburn  8-4 17.54 21.16 84.64 20.10 6.32 Oklahoma  10-2 19.23 22.39 90.29 21.90 2.66 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Oklahoma  -1.70 Oklahoma  -1.24 Oklahoma  -1.47 Oklahoma  -5.5 Oklahoma  -5.65 Oklahoma  -1.8   DUSHEE and the FPI have Oklahoma as a slight favorite, Vegas and Sagarin like them a little more.   Other Big XII-II and Bowls   Aside from TCU and Oklahoma, four other conference mates managed to become bowl eligible. Three are unanimous underdogs in their matchups.   Cactus: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Baylor  6-6 1.91 3.06 67.00 7.40 -0.54 Boise St.  10-2 13.25 12.41 79.05 11.00 -2.08 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Boise St.  -11.34 Boise St.  -9.35 Boise St.  -10.35 Boise St.  -7.5 Boise St.  -12.05 Boise St.  -3.6   Only the FPI has this game within a touchdown and both DUSHEE and Sagarin think the Broncos are at least two-score (as in football scores, not Gettysburg Address scores) favorites.  Given Baylors' nose dive at the end of the season, it seems like the Broncos are a safe bet, if you are a betting man.   Russell Athletic: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Miami (FL)  8-4 11.98 12.17 82.72 16.00 1.63 West Virginia  10-2 10.05 11.40 82.25 14.10 1.13 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Miami (FL)  1.92 Miami (FL)  0.77 Miami (FL)  1.35 Miami (FL)  3 Miami (FL)  0.47 Miami (FL)  1.9   The models are all unanimous in favor of the Hurricanes, but they are also unanimous that this is a close matchup.  Vegas has the largest spread at 3-points and all the models are within 2.5 points.   Texas: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Texas A&M  8-4 5.81 8.65 81.03 16.20 4.16 Kansas St.  8-4 4.90 4.69 81.36 11.30 0.31 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Texas A&M  0.91 Texas A&M  3.96 Texas A&M  2.44 Texas A&M  2 Kansas St.  -0.33 Texas A&M  4.9   This should also be a tight game with the FPI giving the Aggies a 5-point advantage and Sagarin giving the Fighting Snyders a not-quite-half-point advantage.  Vegas splits the difference at a 2-point Agricultural spread.   Alamo: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Colorado  10-3 16.06 20.77 89.05 16.30 6.14 Oklahoma St.  9-3 6.72 7.81 82.93 15.40 1.62 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Colorado  -9.34 Colorado  -12.96 Colorado  -11.15 Colorado  -3 Colorado  -6.12 Colorado  -0.9   All of the models are unanimous about Colorado in the sequel to the epic Bram Kohlhausen show of last year.  However, DUSHEE was pretty down on Oklahoma State this year in comparison to other models.  While most models had OSU easily in the Top-25, DUSHEE had the Cowboys at 33 and 32.  DUSHEE dinged the Pokes for below average performances against Central Michigan, Baylor, Kansas, and Oklahoma, with that Baylor loss in week 4 looking worse and worse as the season went along.  Thus, DUSHEE has Colorado as a double-digit favorite while the other models all have Colorado between a 1-to-6 point favorite.   Other Bowls of Texas Note   Las Vegas: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Houston  9-3 14.19 15.71 81.10 10.60 -0.45 San Diego St.  10-3 8.40 4.69 72.07 6.30 -6.44 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Houston  5.79 Houston  11.02 Houston  8.41 Houston  3.5 Houston  9.03 Houston  4.3   The models are unanimous for Houston with Vegas being the least enthusiastic about their chances.  A big discrepancy in Strength-of-Schedule between these two teams which means Revised DUSHEE likes Houston even more than Original DUSHEE which litkes the Cougars a lot more than Vegas or the FPI.  Sagarin and the DUSHEE Average are about on the same page for Houston.    Armed Forces: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Navy  9-3 6.54 7.67 73.73 4.80 1.50 Louisiana Tech  8-4 7.69 4.24 67.27 3.60 -5.39 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Louisiana Tech  -1.15 Navy  3.43 Navy  1.14 Louisiana Tech  -3.5 Navy  6.46 Navy  1.2   Another big Strength-of-Schedule disparity probably is the cause of such a mixed bag of predictions here with Original DUSHEE and Vegas leaning toward Terry Bradshaw's alma mater and Revised DUSHEE and everyone else leaning toward Roger Dodger's alma mater.   Heart of Dallas: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Army  7-5 -0.89 -5.12 63.12 -1.80 -5.40 North Texas  5-7 -15.64 -19.55 50.84 -15.40 -3.93 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Army  14.75 Army  14.44 Army  14.59 Army  10 Army  12.28 Army  13.6   No one thinks this will be a close game, not because Army is a juggernaut but because North Texas is a ridiculous bowl team.  All 4 computer models have North Texas as the worst team playing in a bowl, edging out 6-7 Hawaii and miles from anybody else.  Regardless of method, all agree that the Mean Green are on the order of two touchdowns WORSE than and AVERAGE FBS team.  And Army is about an average FBS team.  Again I wonder if bettors are giving UNT a home-field boost playing a county away from home.   Sun: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Stanford  9-3 6.68 9.14 84.15 14.40 3.41 North Carolina  8-4 3.52 4.99 78.74 14.10 1.93 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Stanford  3.17 Stanford  4.14 Stanford  3.65 Stanford  3.5 Stanford  5.41 Stanford  0.3   Everyone likes Stanford in the bowl that gives a warm feeling in the heart of any TCU fan over the age of 40.  Sagarin likes the Trees the most, FPI the least.  Only 5 points separate any of the predictions.   Independence: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS N.C. State  6-6 5.44 9.42 74.72 7.40 4.80 Vanderbilt  6-6 -2.18 -0.62 72.15 5.70 2.69 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI N.C. State  7.62 N.C. State  10.03 N.C. State  8.82 N.C. State  4 N.C. State  2.57 N.C. State  1.7   Yes, I know that this game is neither in Texas nor includes a Texas team, but it is right across the border.  It involves two mediocre teams from good conferences and everyone agrees that Philip Rivers' alma mater is slightly less mediocre than the Fightin' Robber Barons of Nashville.  This a game where DUSHEE likes a team far more than the others.   All the Others   All the rest of the that I haven't discussed to this point are captured in the table below.     DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav D Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI New Mexico Albuquerque, NM New Mexico  -4.05 New Mexico  -4.07 New Mexico  -4.06 New Mexico  -7 New Mexico  -5.40 New Mexico  -6.4 Camelia Montgomery, AL Toledo  -4.81 Toledo  -7.25 Toledo  -6.03 Appalachian State 1 Toledo  -0.52 Toledo  -0.5 Cure Orlando, FL UCF  2.05 UCF  6.12 UCF  4.09 UCF  6 UCF  4.64 UCF  4.6 New Orleans New Oleans, LA Southern Miss  6.38 Southern Miss  8.16 Southern Miss  7.27 Southern Miss  3.5 LA Lafayette  -1.15 Southern Miss  4.6 Miami Beach Miami, FL Tulsa  -12.79 Tulsa  -14.39 Tulsa  -13.59 Tulsa  -11.5 Tulsa  -19.98 Tulsa  -9.2 Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL West. Kentucky  11.38 West. Kentucky  10.71 West. Kentucky  11.05 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  1.03 West. Kentucky  3.9 Poinsettia San Diego, Ca BYU  4.83 BYU  3.80 BYU  4.31 BYU  9 BYU  11.68 BYU  13.2 Potato Boise, ID Colorado St.  -12.59 Colorado St.  -17.19 Colorado St.  -14.89 Colorado St.  -13.5 Colorado St.  -10.48 Colorado St.  -9.2 Bahamas Nassau, BA Old Dominion -6.41 Old Dominion -2.31 Old Dominion -4.36 Old Dominion -4 Old Dominion -6.65 Old Dominion -5.4 Dollar General Mobile, AL Troy  9.11 Troy  10.11 Troy  9.61 Troy  3.5 Troy  3.11 Troy  5.3 Hawai'i Honolulu, HI Middle Tenn. St.  -10.04 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.13 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.09     Middle Tenn. St.  -2.28 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.7 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, FL Mississippi St.  4.60 Mississippi St.  11.44 Mississippi St.  8.02 Mississippi St.  13 Mississippi St.  13.41 Mississippi St.  16.0 Quick Lane Detroit, MI Maryland  2.32 Maryland  2.72 Maryland  2.52 Maryland  1 Maryland  1.63 Maryland  0.2 Military Annapolis, MD Temple  21.26 Temple  19.57 Temple  20.42 Temple  13 Temple  15.81 Temple  8.8 Holiday San Diego, Ca Washington St.  -16.00 Washington St.  -18.64 Washington St.  -17.32 Washington St.  -6.5 Washington St.  -6.45 Washington St.  -8.7 Pinstripe New York, NY Northwestern  -0.68 Northwestern  -1.44 Northwestern  -1.06 Pittsburgh  5.5 Pittsburgh  3.43 Pittsburgh  5.3 Foster Farms Santa Clara, CA Utah  -3.20 Utah  -4.60 Utah  -3.90 Utah  -8 Utah  -9.32 Utah  -9.8 Birmingham Birmingham, AL South Florida  -18.35 South Florida  -17.60 South Florida  -17.98 South Florida  -10.5 South Florida  -15.02 South Florida  -10.1 Belk Charlotte, NC Virginia Tech  -11.39 Virginia Tech  -7.61 Virginia Tech  -9.50 Virginia Tech  -7 Virginia Tech  -6.78 Virginia Tech  -6.6 Music City Nashville, TN Tennessee  -0.49 Tennessee  -2.16 Tennessee  -1.32 Tennessee  -3 Nebraska  0.76 Tennessee  -7.2 Arizona Tucson, AZ Air Force  11.83 Air Force  13.75 Air Force  12.79 Air Force  13.5 Air Force  15.13 Air Force  12.4 Citrus Orlando, FL Louisville  5.67 Louisville  0.43 Louisville  3.05 LSU  -3.5 LSU  -2.57 Louisville  0.6 TaxSlayer Jacksonville, FL Georgia Tech  0.46 Kentucky  -2.04 Kentucky  -0.79 Georgia Tech  3.5 Georgia Tech  6.70 Georgia Tech  3.8   A few notes on these games:   1) I'm not sure why, but there is no Vegas line for the Middle Tennessee - Hawaii game.   2) There are a few games where DUSHEE is in noticeable disagreement with the other predictors/models.  DUSHEE likes Toledo in the Camellia, Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton, Troy in the Dollar General (new candidate for top-5 worst Bowl Sponsor Names), and Washington State in the Holiday a lot more than the others.  DUSHEE likes Northwestern in the Pinstripe when the others all have Pitt as a 3.5-point or greater favorite.  Revised DUSHEE is the only model that likes Kentucky over Georgia Tech.  And DUSHEE is significantly less favorable toward Utah against Indiana than the others.  Northwestern and Western Kentucky were arguably the biggest DUSHEE WTF teams of the year so it is not surprising that DUSHEE favors them more than the others.  DUSHEE has also been noticeably undersold on Pitt this season.   3) DUSHEE does not encourage gambling, but if one were inclined to make wagers based on the advice of DUSHEE, he would steer you toward Washington State (-6.5) against Minnesota in the Holiday, Michigan (-6.5) against Florida State in the Orange, Colorado (-3) against Oklahoma State in the Alamo, South Florida (-10.5) against South Carolina in the Birmingham, and Toledo (+1) against Appalachian State in the Camellia.   4) DUSHEE's highest confidence picks are Temple, South Florida, Washington State, Michigan and Alabama.  Lowest confidence picks are USC, Kentucky, Northwestern, Navy, and Tennessee.   So there you have it everybody.  After the bowls are over, we'll come back to this and see how DUSHEE fared.  Two seasons ago, DUSHEE did pretty well.  Last year, I petered out before bowl season and never kept track.   Correction: Where's the Outback Bowl, mate?   As Newbomb so astutely pointed out, I totally missed the Outback Bowl between Florida and Iowa.  And it turns out, the numbers for this game are notable.   Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Florida 8-4 6.59 7.58 79.58 12.60 1.96 Iowa 8-4 6.77 7.58 84.01 12.60 1.30

  DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav D Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Iowa -0.18 Iowa 0.00 Iowa -0.09 Florida 2.5 Iowa -4.43 Even 0.0   DUSHEE Original, DUSHEE Revised, and FPI all could not have this game more even.  You have to go out to the FIFTH decimal place in Revised DUSHEE to give Iowa the edge.  The FPI listing only goes to one decimal place.  Sagarin likes Iowa by 4.5, Vegas likes Florida by 2.5.  This game couldn't be more of a coin flip and becomes the new lowest DUSHEE confidence pick.  Which of course probably means that it will be a blowout.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Final Regular Season DUSHEE Rankings Dump

This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.   DUSHEE Original Formulation   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Michigan  33.79 210.81 32.77 4 Clemson  23.54 204.90 25.65 5 Louisville  20.30 248.74 25.62 6 Washington  26.04 147.28 24.52 7 LSU  17.29 173.34 19.95 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 9 West. Kentucky  19.39 126.58 19.08 10 W. Michigan  19.12 107.02 17.94 11 Wisconsin  18.54 112.35 17.82 12 Auburn  18.55 106.46 17.54 13 Penn St.  17.41 104.65 16.69 14 USC  14.19 142.95 16.41 15 Colorado  15.09 123.54 16.06 16 Florida St.  12.33 159.87 15.99 17 Washington St.  16.34 104.22 15.96 18 Temple  12.69 130.96 14.83 19 Houston  13.63 105.05 14.19 20 Boise St.  12.66 99.10 13.25 21 Toledo  10.61 116.26 12.72 22 Miami (FL)  12.94 69.02 11.98 23 Virginia Tech  11.30 86.12 11.72 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 25 Tulsa  7.01 84.20 8.77 26 San Diego St.  7.85 65.22 8.40 27 Appalachian State 7.81 55.76 7.91 28 Memphis  11.13 5.78 7.70 29 Louisiana Tech  7.59 54.09 7.69 30 Iowa  11.22 -14.52 6.77 31 South Florida  9.15 13.83 6.77 32 Colorado St.  6.43 50.25 6.73 33 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 34 Stanford  8.40 22.27 6.68 35 Florida  6.22 50.26 6.59 36 Navy  7.74 28.47 6.54 37 Northwestern  7.67 23.90 6.28 38 Notre Dame  4.43 59.09 5.82 39 Texas A&M  9.33 -8.40 5.81 40 Pittsburgh  8.60 -2.92 5.59 41 Air Force  4.16 56.34 5.51 42 Troy  6.49 24.34 5.51 43 N.C. State  2.39 79.18 5.44 44 BYU  7.21 11.47 5.36 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 46 Tennessee  7.72 -21.93 4.08 47 Nebraska  3.73 22.85 3.59 48 Utah  4.20 15.84 3.57 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 50 North Carolina  3.79 20.41 3.52 51 Mississippi  2.46 33.08 3.25 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 53 Old Dominion 1.14 34.93 2.46 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 55 Michigan St.  -1.06 48.02 1.63 56 Georgia  -0.16 33.34 1.51 57 UCF  4.33 -30.22 1.42 58 Northern Illinois  0.61 4.64 0.63 59 Wyoming  3.31 -34.49 0.53 60 Indiana  -3.47 55.20 0.37 61 Arkansas  -0.56 14.27 0.32 62 Minnesota  3.14 -44.01 -0.05 63 Georgia Tech  2.43 -34.87 -0.08 64 Southern Miss  -5.86 74.75 -0.27 65 Mississippi St.  -0.13 -8.09 -0.48 66 Kentucky  -1.34 7.32 -0.54 67 Arkansas St.  0.87 -24.78 -0.63 68 Army  -2.98 22.61 -0.89 69 UCLA  -1.69 -4.30 -1.33 70 California  -2.87 11.71 -1.34 71 Vanderbilt  1.29 -62.50 -2.18 72 New Mexico  -3.71 4.12 -2.27 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 75 Ohio  -3.34 -28.27 -3.60 76 East. Michigan  -5.68 -3.38 -3.95 77 Cent. Michigan  -5.24 -10.85 -4.02 78 Utah St.  -5.82 -7.02 -4.22 79 Middle Tenn. St.  -4.79 -22.45 -4.28 80 Oregon St.  -3.47 -46.52 -4.57 81 Oregon  -5.42 -24.08 -4.78 82 Miami (OH)  -5.19 -33.47 -5.09 83 Duke  -5.32 -40.38 -5.51 84 Idaho  -4.23 -62.72 -5.87 85 Missouri  -7.08 -25.08 -5.94 86 South Alabama -5.29 -57.34 -6.31 87 UT-San Antonio -3.28 -85.12 -6.32 88 Wake Forest  -5.25 -60.38 -6.43 89 LA Lafayette  -6.91 -42.08 -6.65 90 SMU  -8.50 -26.90 -6.97 91 Maryland  -5.76 -67.76 -7.13 92 Georgia Southern -5.28 -74.85 -7.16 93 Ball St.  -9.09 -46.05 -8.30 94 Cincinnati  -8.96 -48.04 -8.30 95 Tulane  -8.06 -67.08 -8.63 96 Boston Coll.  -10.46 -51.17 -9.46 97 East Carolina  -14.51 -16.38 -10.47 98 Arizona  -12.41 -48.05 -10.61 99 Kent St.  -10.01 -83.53 -10.73 100 Virginia  -10.55 -83.73 -11.10 101 Georgia State -11.85 -73.42 -11.47 102 South Carolina  -9.05 -114.22 -11.58 103 Arizona St.  -7.98 -129.18 -11.60 104 Syracuse  -12.99 -67.27 -11.93 105 Akron  -9.96 -111.31 -12.05 106 Bowling Green  -14.75 -64.20 -12.96 107 UNLV  -13.77 -78.93 -13.02 108 Nevada  -12.19 -121.52 -14.03 109 San Jose St.  -15.25 -79.76 -14.04 110 Hawaii  -14.93 -89.87 -14.32 111 Florida Intl.  -16.06 -98.19 -15.48 112 North Texas  -13.34 -138.82 -15.64 113 Purdue  -17.46 -86.33 -15.83 114 Illinois  -15.30 -123.95 -16.22 115 UNC-Charlotte -16.75 -113.41 -16.68 116 New Mexico St.  -16.92 -113.40 -16.79 117 UTEP  -18.70 -118.20 -18.21 118 Fresno St.  -19.01 -118.17 -18.41 119 Connecticut  -18.46 -129.58 -18.60 120 Marshall  -17.94 -154.97 -19.49 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53 122 Massachusetts -18.29 -151.10 -19.54 123 Rice  -18.37 -162.05 -20.12 124 Buffalo  -21.14 -137.72 -20.79 125 LA Monroe  -20.41 -148.34 -20.82 126 Florida Atlantic  -20.01 -164.67 -21.34 127 Rutgers  -21.33 -171.67 -22.56 128 Texas St. -30.67 -232.72 -31.76   Original Form. By Conference   18 Temple  12.69 130.96 14.83 19 Houston  13.63 105.05 14.19 25 Tulsa  7.01 84.20 8.77 28 Memphis  11.13 5.78 7.70 31 South Florida  9.15 13.83 6.77 36 Navy  7.74 28.47 6.54 57 UCF  4.33 -30.22 1.42 90 SMU  -8.50 -26.90 -6.97 94 Cincinnati  -8.96 -48.04 -8.30 95 Tulane  -8.06 -67.08 -8.63 97 East Carolina  -14.51 -16.38 -10.47 119 Connecticut  -18.46 -129.58 -18.60 4 Clemson  23.54 204.90 25.65 5 Louisville  20.30 248.74 25.62 16 Florida St.  12.33 159.87 15.99 22 Miami (FL)  12.94 69.02 11.98 23 Virginia Tech  11.30 86.12 11.72 40 Pittsburgh  8.60 -2.92 5.59 43 N.C. State  2.39 79.18 5.44 50 North Carolina  3.79 20.41 3.52 63 Georgia Tech  2.43 -34.87 -0.08 83 Duke  -5.32 -40.38 -5.51 88 Wake Forest  -5.25 -60.38 -6.43 96 Boston Coll.  -10.46 -51.17 -9.46 100 Virginia  -10.55 -83.73 -11.10 104 Syracuse  -12.99 -67.27 -11.93 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Michigan  33.79 210.81 32.77 11 Wisconsin  18.54 112.35 17.82 13 Penn St.  17.41 104.65 16.69 30 Iowa  11.22 -14.52 6.77 37 Northwestern  7.67 23.90 6.28 47 Nebraska  3.73 22.85 3.59 55 Michigan St.  -1.06 48.02 1.63 60 Indiana  -3.47 55.20 0.37 62 Minnesota  3.14 -44.01 -0.05 91 Maryland  -5.76 -67.76 -7.13 113 Purdue  -17.46 -86.33 -15.83 114 Illinois  -15.30 -123.95 -16.22 127 Rutgers  -21.33 -171.67 -22.56 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 33 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53 9 West. Kentucky  19.39 126.58 19.08 29 Louisiana Tech  7.59 54.09 7.69 53 Old Dominion 1.14 34.93 2.46 64 Southern Miss  -5.86 74.75 -0.27 79 Middle Tenn. St.  -4.79 -22.45 -4.28 87 UT-San Antonio -3.28 -85.12 -6.32 111 Florida Intl.  -16.06 -98.19 -15.48 112 North Texas  -13.34 -138.82 -15.64 115 UNC-Charlotte -16.75 -113.41 -16.68 117 UTEP  -18.70 -118.20 -18.21 120 Marshall  -17.94 -154.97 -19.49 123 Rice  -18.37 -162.05 -20.12 126 Florida Atlantic  -20.01 -164.67 -21.34 38 Notre Dame  4.43 59.09 5.82 44 BYU  7.21 11.47 5.36 68 Army  -2.98 22.61 -0.89 122 Massachusetts -18.29 -151.10 -19.54 10 W. Michigan  19.12 107.02 17.94 21 Toledo  10.61 116.26 12.72 58 Northern Illinois  0.61 4.64 0.63 75 Ohio  -3.34 -28.27 -3.60 76 East. Michigan  -5.68 -3.38 -3.95 77 Cent. Michigan  -5.24 -10.85 -4.02 82 Miami (OH)  -5.19 -33.47 -5.09 93 Ball St.  -9.09 -46.05 -8.30 99 Kent St.  -10.01 -83.53 -10.73 105 Akron  -9.96 -111.31 -12.05 106 Bowling Green  -14.75 -64.20 -12.96 124 Buffalo  -21.14 -137.72 -20.79 20 Boise St.  12.66 99.10 13.25 26 San Diego St.  7.85 65.22 8.40 32 Colorado St.  6.43 50.25 6.73 41 Air Force  4.16 56.34 5.51 59 Wyoming  3.31 -34.49 0.53 72 New Mexico  -3.71 4.12 -2.27 78 Utah St.  -5.82 -7.02 -4.22 107 UNLV  -13.77 -78.93 -13.02 108 Nevada  -12.19 -121.52 -14.03 109 San Jose St.  -15.25 -79.76 -14.04 110 Hawaii  -14.93 -89.87 -14.32 118 Fresno St.  -19.01 -118.17 -18.41 6 Washington  26.04 147.28 24.52 14 USC  14.19 142.95 16.41 15 Colorado  15.09 123.54 16.06 17 Washington St.  16.34 104.22 15.96 34 Stanford  8.40 22.27 6.68 48 Utah  4.20 15.84 3.57 69 UCLA  -1.69 -4.30 -1.33 70 California  -2.87 11.71 -1.34 80 Oregon St.  -3.47 -46.52 -4.57 81 Oregon  -5.42 -24.08 -4.78 98 Arizona  -12.41 -48.05 -10.61 103 Arizona St.  -7.98 -129.18 -11.60 27 Appalachian State 7.81 55.76 7.91 42 Troy  6.49 24.34 5.51 67 Arkansas St.  0.87 -24.78 -0.63 84 Idaho  -4.23 -62.72 -5.87 86 South Alabama -5.29 -57.34 -6.31 89 LA Lafayette  -6.91 -42.08 -6.65 92 Georgia Southern -5.28 -74.85 -7.16 101 Georgia State -11.85 -73.42 -11.47 116 New Mexico St.  -16.92 -113.40 -16.79 125 LA Monroe  -20.41 -148.34 -20.82 128 Texas St. -30.67 -232.72 -31.76 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 7 LSU  17.29 173.34 19.95 12 Auburn  18.55 106.46 17.54 35 Florida  6.22 50.26 6.59 39 Texas A&M  9.33 -8.40 5.81 46 Tennessee  7.72 -21.93 4.08 51 Mississippi  2.46 33.08 3.25 56 Georgia  -0.16 33.34 1.51 61 Arkansas  -0.56 14.27 0.32 65 Mississippi St.  -0.13 -8.09 -0.48 66 Kentucky  -1.34 7.32 -0.54 71 Vanderbilt  1.29 -62.50 -2.18 85 Missouri  -7.08 -25.08 -5.94 102 South Carolina  -9.05 -114.22 -11.58   DUSHEE Revised Formulation   1 Alabama  42.57 291.87 45.21 2 Ohio St.  39.66 248.78 40.78 3 Michigan  37.06 212.47 36.95 4 Clemson  27.44 204.40 30.08 5 Louisville  18.62 258.27 27.30 6 LSU  25.48 171.50 26.87 7 Washington  26.13 153.14 26.25 8 Oklahoma  20.79 148.09 22.39 9 Wisconsin  23.72 109.64 22.13 10 Florida St.  18.13 162.15 21.43 11 USC  19.41 144.81 21.29 12 Auburn  24.50 83.70 21.16 13 Colorado  21.01 117.38 20.77 14 Penn St.  20.82 99.06 19.59 15 Washington St.  17.55 105.73 17.79 16 West. Kentucky  15.25 123.58 17.29 17 Houston  13.70 114.14 15.71 18 W. Michigan  13.46 106.21 15.09 19 Temple  10.16 128.05 14.15 20 Virginia Tech  12.46 89.05 13.44 21 Boise St.  10.41 94.84 12.41 22 Miami (FL)  14.14 47.66 12.17 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.40 24 Toledo  6.97 112.51 11.13 25 Northwestern  11.80 27.29 9.44 26 N.C. State  7.11 81.12 9.42 27 Mississippi  11.48 30.21 9.39 28 Tulsa  6.48 84.88 9.21 29 Stanford  11.85 21.43 9.14 30 Texas A&M  13.45 -5.55 8.65 31 Pittsburgh  12.31 -3.67 8.00 32 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 33 Navy  9.07 28.15 7.67 34 Iowa  12.59 -14.02 7.58 35 Florida  8.25 36.12 7.58 36 Colorado St.  6.26 59.00 7.57 37 Notre Dame  6.46 52.72 7.34 38 Tennessee  11.94 -20.70 6.77 39 Michigan St.  5.34 53.00 6.62 40 Memphis  10.22 -4.09 6.58 41 Arkansas  5.77 34.29 5.82 42 South Florida  8.26 -0.55 5.47 43 BYU  6.93 8.40 5.11 44 TCU  2.87 54.13 5.03 45 North Carolina  5.69 20.79 4.99 46 Utah  5.49 18.25 4.71 47 San Diego St.  1.50 63.96 4.69 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 49 Nebraska  4.25 30.78 4.61 50 Louisiana Tech  2.28 47.14 4.24 51 Appalachian State 0.64 59.84 3.88 52 Texas  0.75 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.49 3.06 54 Kentucky  2.25 25.29 2.96 55 Air Force  0.63 43.32 2.91 56 Mississippi St.  4.29 -6.72 2.47 57 Georgia  0.98 26.51 2.18 58 Troy  0.68 16.85 1.42 59 Wyoming  4.48 -29.13 1.31 60 Georgia Tech  4.55 -36.71 0.92 61 Northern Illinois  -0.67 22.79 0.87 62 UCLA  0.98 3.45 0.85 63 UCF  4.97 -43.07 0.83 64 California  0.47 6.18 0.67 65 Indiana  -4.58 54.86 0.11 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.73 -0.34 67 Vanderbilt  4.18 -59.02 -0.62 68 Minnesota  2.56 -44.37 -0.85 69 Oregon St.  2.43 -42.94 -0.86 70 Oregon  -0.09 -26.27 -1.57 71 Old Dominion -6.36 34.91 -2.23 72 Duke  -0.22 -38.89 -2.39 73 Utah St.  -3.92 -6.49 -2.99 74 Southern Miss  -11.62 74.88 -3.43 75 Iowa St.  -2.95 -37.89 -4.15 76 East. Michigan  -7.03 2.58 -4.54 77 Army  -9.16 17.12 -5.12 78 Cent. Michigan  -6.84 -10.79 -5.18 79 Arkansas St.  -6.07 -21.58 -5.29 80 Missouri  -6.11 -22.41 -5.37 81 Wake Forest  -2.91 -60.40 -5.42 82 SMU  -6.22 -27.95 -5.75 83 Maryland  -2.60 -80.10 -6.35 84 Arizona  -7.13 -47.29 -7.48 85 New Mexico  -11.03 -5.42 -7.66 86 Cincinnati  -8.12 -49.63 -8.27 87 Kent St.  -7.75 -58.59 -8.54 88 Ohio  -10.48 -29.49 -8.68 89 Miami (OH)  -10.46 -34.46 -8.96 90 Syracuse  -7.28 -71.78 -8.99 91 Boston Coll.  -9.77 -44.37 -9.07 92 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.40 -15.61 -9.17 93 Tulane  -8.45 -68.48 -9.58 94 Idaho  -8.83 -64.76 -9.62 95 Arizona St.  -3.23 -131.40 -9.72 96 Georgia Southern -7.96 -76.98 -9.74 97 East Carolina  -14.08 -16.22 -10.32 98 Virginia  -8.94 -78.15 -10.46 99 South Alabama -11.36 -56.69 -10.84 100 Ball St.  -13.36 -44.86 -11.50 101 LA Lafayette  -13.78 -41.67 -11.59 102 UT-San Antonio -9.38 -95.05 -11.73 103 South Carolina  -8.56 -111.33 -12.13 104 Bowling Green  -14.25 -57.97 -12.84 105 Illinois  -10.57 -124.54 -14.22 106 Akron  -12.23 -105.98 -14.26 107 Georgia State -15.72 -67.42 -14.37 108 Purdue  -16.54 -76.50 -15.44 109 UNLV  -17.56 -77.63 -16.18 110 San Jose St.  -17.46 -80.51 -16.28 111 Hawaii  -17.90 -93.06 -17.30 112 Kansas  -16.11 -120.33 -17.67 113 Rutgers  -12.81 -167.29 -18.18 114 North Texas  -17.38 -138.22 -19.55 115 Florida Intl.  -22.26 -89.92 -20.02 116 UNC-Charlotte -21.21 -104.58 -20.16 117 Fresno St.  -20.29 -116.72 -20.25 118 Connecticut  -19.36 -130.53 -20.43 119 New Mexico St.  -22.07 -113.61 -21.26 120 Nevada  -20.66 -131.18 -21.33 121 Massachusetts -21.19 -151.36 -22.85 122 LA Monroe  -23.01 -141.00 -23.46 123 UTEP  -26.42 -116.01 -24.30 124 Marshall  -21.75 -175.67 -24.62 125 Rice  -22.48 -178.83 -25.29 126 Buffalo  -26.78 -140.34 -25.94 127 Florida Atlantic  -25.61 -169.95 -26.87 128 Texas St. -34.29 -230.61 -36.15   By Conference   Rank Team PD YD Score 17 Houston  13.70 114.14 15.71 19 Temple  10.16 128.05 14.15 28 Tulsa  6.48 84.88 9.21 33 Navy  9.07 28.15 7.67 40 Memphis  10.22 -4.09 6.58 42 South Florida  8.26 -0.55 5.47 63 UCF  4.97 -43.07 0.83 82 SMU  -6.22 -27.95 -5.75 86 Cincinnati  -8.12 -49.63 -8.27 93 Tulane  -8.45 -68.48 -9.58 97 East Carolina  -14.08 -16.22 -10.32 118 Connecticut  -19.36 -130.53 -20.43 4 Clemson  27.44 204.40 30.08 5 Louisville  18.62 258.27 27.30 10 Florida St.  18.13 162.15 21.43 20 Virginia Tech  12.46 89.05 13.44 22 Miami (FL)  14.14 47.66 12.17 26 N.C. State  7.11 81.12 9.42 31 Pittsburgh  12.31 -3.67 8.00 45 North Carolina  5.69 20.79 4.99 60 Georgia Tech  4.55 -36.71 0.92 72 Duke  -0.22 -38.89 -2.39 81 Wake Forest  -2.91 -60.40 -5.42 90 Syracuse  -7.28 -71.78 -8.99 91 Boston Coll.  -9.77 -44.37 -9.07 98 Virginia  -8.94 -78.15 -10.46 2 Ohio St.  39.66 248.78 40.78 3 Michigan  37.06 212.47 36.95 9 Wisconsin  23.72 109.64 22.13 14 Penn St.  20.82 99.06 19.59 25 Northwestern  11.80 27.29 9.44 34 Iowa  12.59 -14.02 7.58 39 Michigan St.  5.34 53.00 6.62 49 Nebraska  4.25 30.78 4.61 65 Indiana  -4.58 54.86 0.11 68 Minnesota  2.56 -44.37 -0.85 83 Maryland  -2.60 -80.10 -6.35 105 Illinois  -10.57 -124.54 -14.22 108 Purdue  -16.54 -76.50 -15.44 113 Rutgers  -12.81 -167.29 -18.18 8 Oklahoma  20.79 148.09 22.39 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.40 32 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 44 TCU  2.87 54.13 5.03 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 52 Texas  0.75 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.49 3.06 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.73 -0.34 75 Iowa St.  -2.95 -37.89 -4.15 112 Kansas  -16.11 -120.33 -17.67 16 West. Kentucky  15.25 123.58 17.29 50 Louisiana Tech  2.28 47.14 4.24 71 Old Dominion -6.36 34.91 -2.23 74 Southern Miss  -11.62 74.88 -3.43 92 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.40 -15.61 -9.17 102 UT-San Antonio -9.38 -95.05 -11.73 114 North Texas  -17.38 -138.22 -19.55 115 Florida Intl.  -22.26 -89.92 -20.02 116 UNC-Charlotte -21.21 -104.58 -20.16 123 UTEP  -26.42 -116.01 -24.30 124 Marshall  -21.75 -175.67 -24.62 125 Rice  -22.48 -178.83 -25.29 127 Florida Atlantic  -25.61 -169.95 -26.87 37 Notre Dame  6.46 52.72 7.34 43 BYU  6.93 8.40 5.11 77 Army  -9.16 17.12 -5.12 121 Massachusetts -21.19 -151.36 -22.85 18 W. Michigan  13.46 106.21 15.09 24 Toledo  6.97 112.51 11.13 61 Northern Illinois  -0.67 22.79 0.87 76 East. Michigan  -7.03 2.58 -4.54 78 Cent. Michigan  -6.84 -10.79 -5.18 87 Kent St.  -7.75 -58.59 -8.54 88 Ohio  -10.48 -29.49 -8.68 89 Miami (OH)  -10.46 -34.46 -8.96 100 Ball St.  -13.36 -44.86 -11.50 104 Bowling Green  -14.25 -57.97 -12.84 106 Akron  -12.23 -105.98 -14.26 126 Buffalo  -26.78 -140.34 -25.94 21 Boise St.  10.41 94.84 12.41 36 Colorado St.  6.26 59.00 7.57 47 San Diego St.  1.50 63.96 4.69 55 Air Force  0.63 43.32 2.91 59 Wyoming  4.48 -29.13 1.31 73 Utah St.  -3.92 -6.49 -2.99 85 New Mexico  -11.03 -5.42 -7.66 109 UNLV  -17.56 -77.63 -16.18 110 San Jose St.  -17.46 -80.51 -16.28 111 Hawaii  -17.90 -93.06 -17.30 117 Fresno St.  -20.29 -116.72 -20.25 120 Nevada  -20.66 -131.18 -21.33 7 Washington  26.13 153.14 26.25 11 USC  19.41 144.81 21.29 13 Colorado  21.01 117.38 20.77 15 Washington St.  17.55 105.73 17.79 29 Stanford  11.85 21.43 9.14 46 Utah  5.49 18.25 4.71 62 UCLA  0.98 3.45 0.85 64 California  0.47 6.18 0.67 69 Oregon St.  2.43 -42.94 -0.86 70 Oregon  -0.09 -26.27 -1.57 84 Arizona  -7.13 -47.29 -7.48 95 Arizona St.  -3.23 -131.40 -9.72 51 Appalachian State 0.64 59.84 3.88 58 Troy  0.68 16.85 1.42 79 Arkansas St.  -6.07 -21.58 -5.29 94 Idaho  -8.83 -64.76 -9.62 96 Georgia Southern -7.96 -76.98 -9.74 99 South Alabama -11.36 -56.69 -10.84 101 LA Lafayette  -13.78 -41.67 -11.59 107 Georgia State -15.72 -67.42 -14.37 119 New Mexico St.  -22.07 -113.61 -21.26 122 LA Monroe  -23.01 -141.00 -23.46 128 Texas St. -34.29 -230.61 -36.15 1 Alabama  42.57 291.87 45.21 6 LSU  25.48 171.50 26.87 12 Auburn  24.50 83.70 21.16 27 Mississippi  11.48 30.21 9.39 30 Texas A&M  13.45 -5.55 8.65 35 Florida  8.25 36.12 7.58 38 Tennessee  11.94 -20.70 6.77 41 Arkansas  5.77 34.29 5.82 54 Kentucky  2.25 25.29 2.96 56 Mississippi St.  4.29 -6.72 2.47 57 Georgia  0.98 26.51 2.18 67 Vanderbilt  4.18 -59.02 -0.62 80 Missouri  -6.11 -22.41 -5.37 103 South Carolina  -8.56 -111.33 -12.13   Strength of Schedule   1 Miss 8.74 2 Rut 8.35 3 LSU 8.17 4 Bama 6.77 5 MichSt 6.73 6 Aub 6.32 7 Syr 6.19 8 Col 6.14 9 Ark 5.76 10 OreSt 5.63 11 FSU 5.55 12 OhSt 5.37 13 Ore 5.29 14 Zona 5.16 15 Wisc 5.14 16 USC 4.99 17 NCSU 4.80 18 Duke 4.73 19 Ill 4.72 20 MissSt 4.67 21 ASU 4.44 22 Tenn 4.26 23 Kan 4.24 24 A&M 4.16 25 Nwstern 4.12 26 Clem 3.99 27 Pitt 3.83 28 Cal 3.45 29 Ky 3.42 30 Stan 3.41 31 Mary 3.40 32 PSU 3.37 33 Mich 3.18 34 Vandy 2.69 35 SMU 2.68 36 OU 2.66 37 ND 2.55 38 UCLA 2.39 39 Wake 2.32 40 GaTech 2.23 41 Ttech 2.03 42 Fla 1.96 43 UNC 1.93 44 USU 1.90 45 WSU 1.86 46 Mizz 1.82 47 Uva 1.73 48 ISU 1.71 49 MiaFl 1.63 50 OkSt 1.62 51 Navy 1.50 52 KentSt 1.39 53 Iowa 1.30 54 Utah 1.28 55 TCU 1.16 56 WVU 1.13 57 ECU 0.91 58 Cin 0.82 59 UCF 0.79 60 Wyo 0.75 61 Uga 0.73 62 VaTech 0.68 63 BC 0.64 64 Tex 0.56 65 Pur 0.53 66 SoCar 0.41 67 Neb 0.35 68 KSU 0.31 69 CSU -0.05 70 Mem -0.19 71 Tulsa -0.20 72 Wash -0.22 73 BYU -0.30 74 BGSU -0.42 75 Tulane -0.43 76 Hou -0.45 77 Bay -0.54 78 Minn -0.77 79 USF -0.83 80 Ind -1.16 81 Fres -1.26 82 UNI -1.31 83 Uconn -1.47 84 CMU -1.62 85 L'ville -1.66 86 Boise -2.08 87 Akr -2.23 88 EMU -2.25 89 SJSU -2.33 90 ULaMon -2.49 91 GaSo -2.56 92 Temp -2.62 93 Haw -2.78 94 Umass -2.94 95 Marsh -3.00 96 TexSt -3.44 97 AFA -3.51 98 Tol -3.63 99 UNLV -3.92 100 UNT -3.93 101 Rice -4.00 102 GaSt -4.01 103 WKU -4.06 104 Ball -4.28 105 Char -4.40 106 Ida -4.81 107 NMSU -5.01 108 Buf -5.32 109 MiaOh -5.35 110 LaTech -5.39 111 Army -5.40 112 USM -5.58 113 USA -5.59 114 WMU -5.60 115 UTSA -5.83 116 FAU -5.83 117 Troy -6.02 118 FIU -6.31 119 ArkSt -6.31 120 SDSU -6.44 121 ULaLa -6.84 122 Ohio -7.18 123 UNM -7.34 124 AppSt -7.38 125 UTEP -7.65 126 ODU -7.72 127 Nev -8.01 128 MTSU -8.11

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Jekyll and Hyde II -- Hell's Half Acre

Whither the 2016 Frogs?   Bruce Banner and the Hulk.  Yin and yang.  Tyler Durden and the unnamed Edward Norton character in Fight Club.  Devil with the Blue Dress.  Sméagol and Gollum.   The 2016 Frogs.   Pop culture is replete with dichotomous but symbiotic opposites contained in the same body.  For there to be beauty there must be ugliness.  Good cannot exist without evil.   There was some beauty to this edition of the Frogs.  That fabulous 40-point beatdown of the drain-encircling Rapey-bears.  The Charlie Strong swan song (La cucuracha, ya no puede caminar ...).  A 30-point beating of an SMU team who may not have been as dreadful as they appeared at the time (ask Houston).   But the evil Frogs appeared just as often.  Kansas.  West Virginia.  Oklahoma State.   And then there were the games when the Good and Evil Frogs battled for dominance within the same game, sometimes quarter-to-quarter.  Arkansas -- Evil Frogs in the first half, beautiful Frogs in the second.  Oklahoma -- Dr. Jekyll in the first and fourth, Mr. Hyde in the second and third.  For the first 5 weeks of the season, save for the inevitable Kenny Hill pick-6, the offense looked unstoppable while the defense looked atrocious.  Then, from weeks 6 through 9, the formerly unstoppable offense became totally inept while the defense started getting better.  Then for the last 4 weeks, the offense and defense joined forces, either showing Peach Bowl-level dominance or 1997-level ineptitude, but in unison and in alternating weeks.  Blow out Baylor.  Blown out by Okie State.  Blow out Texas.  Blown out by Kansas State.   And then there was "home field advantage."  The Frogs were uncategorically awful at "The Carter."  The Frogs averaged a point differential of nearly a +10 points on the road this year.  They averaged a point differential of -4 points at home.  That means the Frogs were 4 points worse than an average FBS team at home and 10 points better than an average FBS team on the road.  On average, FBS teams were 3.2 points better at home than on the road.  Twenty-nine teams (out of 128) had worse point differentials at home than on the road.  Only Army (-22) had a bigger home-road disparity than the Frogs.   A look at the Frog's numbers week-to-week shows just how inscrutable the Frogs were this season:   Opp    Ark  ISU @ SMU  OU @ Kan   @ WVU  Ttech @ Bay    OkSt @ Tex  KSU PD   -7.40 19.20 21.20 9.82 -24.30   -17.10 -8.30 44.60   -20.20 24.45 -17.50 YD   172.40 107.00 243.50 107.09 -265.70   -28.70 81.20 365.00   -194.90 134.18 -252.60 Score   3.44 18.00 25.96 11.75 -29.11   -12.79 -1.59 47.46   -22.93 22.82 -23.94   Up until week 6, this team had the look of a pretty solid team.  They lost a game to Arkansas they had no business losing, beating the Hogs physically but combining a slow start, shaky kicking, and insurmountable turnovers into a painful loss stew.  They dominated two teams they were supposed to dominate, Iowa State and SMU, and then played a top-10 Oklahoma team to an almost draw.    Then there was Kansas.  Effing Kansas.  Every. Damn. Year. Kansas.  By DUSHEE metrics, the Kansas game was the Frogs worst performance of the year.  It was last year as well.  And the year before.  All of them wins, mind you.  But awful, terrible, no good performances against awful, terrible, no good teams.    And from that point on, the Frogs were usually a below-average team.  Except for Baylor and Texas, when they looked like a legitimate top-25 team.   Looking at the standard deviation (a measure of inconsistency in this case) in point differential, the Frogs were the 12th most inconsistent team in FBS this season (Army, being the most inconsistent) with a standard deviation of 22.7 points.  That means the Frogs, who had an average point differential of 2.2 points/game, were just as likely to be 25 points better than an average team on a given afternoon (as they were against Texas) as they were to be 20 points worse than an average team (as they were against Oklahoma State).   Such were the 2016 Frogs.   Wither the "Big" XII-II?   It was a bad year for the conference as well.  I want to dig into conference strength more after the Army-Navy game Saturday officially closes out the regular season, but as a preview DUSHEE had the Big XII-II about as close, on average, to the American Athletic Conference as the PAC-12, the next lowest "Power 5" conference:   Conference Average DUSHEE Scores   SEC 5.39 ACC 4.35 B10 4.21 P12 4.08 B12 2.30 AAC 0.79 MWC -3.82 MAC -4.19 CUSA -8.38 SBC -8.55   The bulk of the conference was really, really, middling, with only Oklahoma and West Virginia averaging a touchdown or greater better than an average team.  Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and TCU were between a field goal and touchdown better than an average team; Texas and Baylor were definitively average.  Here are the conference numbers:              Rk Team                              PD           YD          Score (Orig) 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 34 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53   The Revised DUSHEE score emphasizes strength-of-schedule and de-emphasizes performances that are far outside the norm for a particular team; but since a team's strength of schedule is dominated by the conference it is in (e.g., 82% of TCU's SoS was based on its 9 conference opponents of 11 FBS games), the conference's Revised DUSHEE rankings don't look a lot different than the Originals:   8 Oklahoma  20.80 148.08 22.40 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.41 33 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 44 TCU  2.88 54.12 5.04 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 52 Texas  0.74 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.48 3.06 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.74 -0.34 75 Iowa St.  -2.94 -37.87 -4.15 112 Kansas  -16.10 -120.33 -17.67   I would caution not to put too much emphasis on the conference's weakness this season.  It was a down year.  The last two seasons, the Big XII-II were either second or third in the average ratings.  Three years ago, many were having a wake for the B1G as a relevant conference outside of Ohio State.  Now, people are clamoring for as many as three B1G teams in the CFP.  These things are transient, and a small conference like the Big 12 are harder hit by bad years from top teams (ahem, TCU and Baylor).   Whither Georgia?   I also intend to put out a blog on the Bowl season but since we're emphasizing the Frogs, let's take a look at their Liberty Bowl opponent, Georgia.   On an average basis, the Dawgs look about the same as the Frogs.  But on a week-to-week basis, Georgia was less Jekyll/Hyde and more consistently meh.   Opp UNC   Mizz Miss Tenn SoCar Vandy   Fla Ky Aub ULaLa GaTech PD 14.00   -6.90 -38.30 -0.40 7.40 -1.80   -9.27 -0.50 21.10 13.10 -0.20 YD 194.67   -100.10 -132.30 -13.60 -66.70 203.90   -26.27 140.90 271.10 -79.20 -25.60 Score (Orig) 18.79   -9.46 -31.96 -0.93 1.69 8.70   -7.46 6.51 27.23 4.89 -1.38 Score (Revised) 21.40   -13.57 -25.54 1.70 -6.36 7.57   -3.18 7.05 36.52 0.00 -1.60   Georgia had two good performances; in week 1 against UNC (33-24, outgaining 474-315) and in their week 11 upset of Auburn (13-7, outgaining 343-164).  Georgia's two worst performances were back-to-back in weeks 3-4 against a weak Missouri team (28-27, outgained 409-473) and Ole Miss (14-45, outgained 396-510).  Their other 7 games, they were really, consistently average.   Based on average DUSHEE score, the Frogs are a 2.5-point favorite over Georgia, but while we've seen a lot of the "average" Georgia team, we've seen very little of the "average" TCU team.  If the "good" TCU team shows, the line should probably be closer to 2-3 TDs.  If the "evil" TCU team shows, Georgia should be favored by 2-3 TDs.  I guess we'll just have to tune in and find out which side of the coin lands face up.  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Week 6 DUSHEE

Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Michigan  46.74 299.07 46.22 2 Ohio St.  38.30 324.63 41.88 3 Clemson  34.63 280.91 37.23 4 Louisville  26.45 367.75 36.15 5 Alabama  34.56 228.39 34.54 6 Virginia Tech  24.16 195.85 25.97 7 Oklahoma  18.62 230.53 24.02 8 Mississippi  26.76 122.33 24.00 9 Washington St.  22.25 164.75 23.13 10 Wisconsin  24.84 111.48 22.17 11 Auburn  19.83 171.56 21.86 12 Houston  20.60 160.68 21.82 13 LSU  18.59 181.89 21.55 14 Florida St.  15.50 211.28 20.97 15 Boise St.  19.17 150.78 20.37 16 Tennessee  21.13 124.58 20.36 17 Colorado  16.12 158.66 18.74 18 Washington  24.35 42.65 18.38 19 N.C. State  14.04 152.31 17.03 20 Texas A&M  19.72 66.79 16.51 21 Florida  15.02 117.88 15.95 22 Miami (FL)  17.06 90.31 15.92 23 Toledo  8.31 200.02 15.61 24 W. Michigan  16.62 79.90 15.10 25 UCF  11.95 118.93 13.95 26 Troy  16.00 37.38 12.55 27 Penn St.  13.44 67.45 12.36 28 Texas Tech  7.77 140.65 12.26 29 Northwestern  16.81 13.56 11.89 30 Baylor  9.69 104.88 11.74 31 Indiana  7.63 127.08 11.49 32 West Virginia  13.36 47.38 11.29 33 Nebraska  12.52 52.98 11.01 34 BYU  7.61 105.06 10.37 35 Oregon  9.33 68.03 9.65 36 Stanford  12.12 20.40 9.11 37 USC  6.39 87.81 8.68 38 Memphis  17.02 -65.54 8.05 39 Maryland  11.05 11.87 7.96 40 Navy  10.21 22.83 7.96 41 Air Force  8.98 31.67 7.58 42 Oklahoma St.  6.97 48.98 7.11 43 Kansas St.  12.52 -30.23 6.83 44 UCLA  4.94 64.10 6.52 45 Temple  6.40 42.32 6.40 46 Arkansas  6.03 32.40 5.65 47 South Florida  5.85 30.90 5.46 48 Army  2.47 60.83 4.71 49 Arizona  2.98 49.59 4.48 50 TCU  0.68 61.50 3.55 51 Utah  1.76 42.25 3.30 52 Georgia Tech  5.56 -10.63 3.17 53 Appalachian State 5.82 -23.22 2.71 54 Louisiana Tech  -0.77 59.60 2.49 55 Arizona St.  5.85 -34.88 2.15 56 Mississippi St.  0.93 21.93 1.73 57 East Carolina  -6.16 115.25 1.69 58 Texas  -0.27 35.85 1.63 59 San Diego St.  0.18 17.35 0.99 60 California  0.01 18.93 0.96 61 Southern Miss  -2.81 52.80 0.78 62 Tulsa  -4.69 70.25 0.41 63 Notre Dame  -0.04 -0.11 -0.03 64 Cent. Michigan  -2.37 22.47 -0.45 65 Duke  -0.08 -12.79 -0.70 66 West. Kentucky  -0.21 -14.14 -0.85 67 North Carolina  -1.62 0.38 -1.06 68 Iowa  4.42 -81.27 -1.15 69 Wake Forest  2.85 -62.53 -1.25 70 Michigan St.  -4.38 30.53 -1.38 71 Georgia  -1.87 -13.30 -1.92 72 Missouri  -2.71 -5.65 -2.09 73 Old Dominion -2.11 -17.37 -2.28 74 Pittsburgh  -1.65 -45.16 -3.37 75 Wyoming  0.62 -79.65 -3.60 76 Minnesota  -1.57 -56.98 -3.92 77 Iowa St.  -3.40 -37.03 -4.13 78 Cincinnati  -6.70 -9.92 -4.97 79 Kentucky  -3.33 -55.94 -5.03 80 South Alabama -2.21 -71.69 -5.08 81 Northern Illinois  -5.35 -47.12 -5.94 82 Virginia  -5.88 -54.06 -6.64 83 Boston Coll.  -9.59 -5.33 -6.66 84 UT-San Antonio -1.19 -118.69 -6.77 85 Vanderbilt  -2.49 -109.14 -7.15 86 Connecticut  -5.90 -69.10 -7.41 87 Middle Tenn. St.  -7.98 -42.06 -7.43 88 Oregon St.  -8.15 -56.22 -8.26 89 Syracuse  -9.28 -45.81 -8.49 90 Utah St.  -11.48 -16.80 -8.50 91 Tulane  -5.77 -120.54 -9.92 92 LA Lafayette  -11.06 -55.58 -10.17 93 Georgia Southern -8.40 -101.31 -10.70 94 SMU  -12.45 -49.22 -10.78 95 Miami (OH)  -14.25 -39.95 -11.51 96 Hawaii  -12.62 -63.23 -11.60 97 Arkansas St.  -14.72 -46.34 -12.15 98 Illinois  -13.63 -69.98 -12.61 99 Colorado St.  -11.77 -96.00 -12.68 100 Kent St.  -10.64 -120.15 -13.14 101 Ball St.  -12.20 -99.60 -13.15 102 South Carolina  -10.97 -129.89 -13.85 103 Rutgers  -11.07 -129.18 -13.88 104 Kansas  -14.65 -83.88 -13.99 105 Akron  -8.15 -192.43 -15.12 106 Massachusetts -14.70 -126.25 -16.16 107 Ohio  -18.51 -78.56 -16.29 108 East. Michigan  -20.00 -83.12 -17.52 109 Georgia State -12.73 -199.90 -18.55 110 Purdue  -21.21 -109.42 -19.65 111 Fresno St.  -21.10 -120.42 -20.13 112 New Mexico  -26.13 -60.56 -20.47 113 UNLV  -19.93 -147.21 -20.70 114 Rice  -17.57 -202.97 -21.93 115 Florida Intl.  -24.02 -129.24 -22.52 116 New Mexico St.  -26.09 -105.07 -22.69 117 Idaho  -17.98 -221.97 -23.17 118 UTEP  -28.60 -82.67 -23.23 119 North Texas  -18.77 -231.57 -24.17 120 Marshall  -19.94 -217.38 -24.24 121 Bowling Green  -26.30 -133.85 -24.27 122 UNC-Charlotte -29.30 -103.35 -24.74 123 Nevada  -22.86 -212.86 -25.96 124 Florida Atlantic  -26.92 -231.18 -29.59 125 LA Monroe  -30.80 -201.59 -30.68 126 San Jose St.  -33.62 -164.62 -30.70 127 Buffalo  -28.81 -230.94 -30.84 128 Texas St. -30.81 -275.44 -34.41

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Week 5 DUSHEE

I never published this last week ...   Overall 1 Ohio St.  45.33 369.46 48.37 2 Michigan  44.75 287.27 43.94 3 Alabama  34.70 262.88 36.05 4 Clemson  32.25 276.10 35.06 5 Louisville  23.57 364.53 33.62 6 Virginia Tech  27.19 269.17 31.35 7 Mississippi  30.38 162.00 28.21 8 Oklahoma  25.21 223.21 27.77 9 Houston  27.71 155.67 26.12 10 Washington St.  22.67 216.22 25.73 11 Colorado  20.48 221.73 24.54 12 LSU  20.25 200.10 23.33 13 Miami (FL)  23.61 136.03 22.42 14 Tennessee  24.00 126.65 22.22 15 Texas A&M  23.52 101.96 20.69 16 Florida St.  15.69 195.46 20.06 17 Maryland  20.72 110.97 19.27 18 Wisconsin  21.88 91.08 19.06 19 Oregon  17.42 147.60 18.86 20 Boise St.  15.42 146.42 17.47 21 W. Michigan  19.21 91.21 17.29 22 Washington  23.83 9.58 16.36 23 N.C. State  11.89 170.56 16.30 24 UCF  13.31 136.10 15.56 25 Auburn  13.97 122.03 15.31 26 Florida  14.77 91.40 14.33 27 TCU  9.08 162.67 14.05 28 West Virginia  13.94 80.11 13.23 29 Stanford  17.31 22.73 12.66 30 Northwestern  17.71 13.48 12.47 31 Air Force  12.94 77.56 12.44 32 Baylor  8.92 109.04 11.30 33 Troy  14.19 35.40 11.20 34 Oklahoma St.  9.08 94.00 10.67 35 BYU  8.37 92.10 10.10 36 Nebraska  12.57 34.63 10.08 37 UCLA  8.87 77.23 9.70 38 Michigan St.  3.64 143.69 9.48 39 Georgia Tech  10.67 30.65 8.62 40 Toledo  1.86 147.17 8.47 41 Kansas St.  11.89 5.44 8.19 42 Army  7.77 53.65 7.82 43 Southern Miss  3.21 90.90 6.60 44 USC  5.18 62.20 6.51 45 Indiana  1.08 111.02 6.18 46 Texas  -0.02 113.10 5.54 47 Texas Tech  4.67 44.44 5.29 48 South Florida  7.75 -3.08 5.02 49 Memphis  13.00 -74.94 4.99 50 California  1.60 79.50 4.97 51 Mississippi St.  4.60 29.67 4.53 52 East Carolina  -7.33 168.23 3.37 53 Arkansas  4.71 -4.21 2.93 54 West. Kentucky  1.65 25.06 2.33 55 Tulsa  -1.56 66.22 2.22 56 Navy  2.83 -0.44 1.87 57 Arizona  2.35 5.35 1.83 58 Arizona St.  4.75 -33.94 1.50 59 Louisiana Tech  0.23 25.29 1.40 60 Utah  -1.71 51.06 1.37 61 Wake Forest  4.67 -37.46 1.27 62 Appalachian State 4.22 -38.82 0.90 63 Penn St.  2.92 -27.15 0.61 64 Cincinnati  -2.29 41.67 0.52 65 Iowa  7.50 -97.33 0.22 66 Cent. Michigan  -2.50 36.92 0.15 67 Georgia  -1.23 8.27 -0.41 68 Notre Dame  -1.97 17.50 -0.45 69 Boston Coll.  -2.79 15.04 -1.12 70 Missouri  -2.67 8.17 -1.38 71 Rutgers  1.25 -63.54 -2.29 72 Temple  -0.69 -37.81 -2.32 73 Kentucky  -2.03 -38.85 -3.26 74 North Carolina  -2.88 -28.21 -3.30 75 Iowa St.  -2.92 -36.67 -3.75 76 Vanderbilt  0.62 -103.90 -4.69 77 South Alabama -1.63 -74.42 -4.74 78 Pittsburgh  -3.23 -67.71 -5.48 79 San Diego St.  -3.28 -69.72 -5.61 80 Miami (OH)  -10.67 10.67 -6.59 81 Virginia  -6.08 -56.50 -6.83 82 Syracuse  -7.98 -46.15 -7.59 83 Georgia Southern -7.17 -59.61 -7.71 84 Duke  -7.48 -56.29 -7.75 85 Utah St.  -10.29 -25.79 -8.13 86 Old Dominion -10.19 -42.17 -8.86 87 Connecticut  -7.46 -104.25 -10.09 88 Illinois  -8.72 -90.22 -10.25 89 LA Lafayette  -12.23 -54.63 -10.84 90 Wyoming  -6.54 -136.23 -11.05 91 Tulane  -7.42 -124.83 -11.08 92 South Carolina  -8.25 -139.93 -12.37 93 Northern Illinois  -11.21 -109.42 -12.85 94 Oregon St.  -12.00 -100.00 -12.91 95 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.67 -99.17 -13.32 96 Massachusetts -11.63 -116.88 -13.50 97 SMU  -15.75 -64.83 -13.68 98 Minnesota  -12.19 -130.50 -14.54 99 Purdue  -19.06 -48.17 -15.07 100 Hawaii  -17.19 -82.02 -15.49 101 Ball St.  -15.08 -124.67 -16.18 102 Colorado St.  -16.17 -112.83 -16.32 103 Ohio  -18.35 -99.88 -17.14 104 Georgia State -11.21 -203.40 -17.46 105 UTEP  -26.08 -23.63 -18.55 106 Kent St.  -20.42 -132.94 -20.14 107 Idaho  -17.46 -177.54 -20.36 108 Arkansas St.  -21.64 -126.47 -20.64 109 Rice  -16.60 -207.60 -21.26 110 Marshall  -19.86 -183.47 -22.25 111 Fresno St.  -23.79 -135.15 -22.50 112 New Mexico St.  -26.03 -105.65 -22.54 113 Kansas  -20.28 -186.28 -22.67 114 Florida Intl.  -23.45 -145.05 -22.76 115 New Mexico  -28.00 -85.28 -22.86 116 UT-San Antonio -17.78 -228.00 -23.05 117 UNLV  -25.08 -129.02 -23.06 118 Buffalo  -18.67 -223.67 -23.43 119 Akron  -18.06 -280.25 -25.81 120 Florida Atlantic  -24.65 -203.48 -26.43 121 Bowling Green  -30.42 -142.00 -27.25 122 UNC-Charlotte -33.54 -113.10 -27.92 123 North Texas  -23.06 -283.92 -29.32 124 East. Michigan  -32.25 -170.92 -29.90 125 Texas St. -25.78 -264.89 -30.20 126 Nevada  -28.31 -239.58 -30.64 127 San Jose St.  -34.50 -169.04 -31.30 128 LA Monroe  -33.03 -241.17 -33.86   By Conf AAC         9 Houston  27.71 155.67 26.12 24 UCF  13.31 136.10 15.56 48 South Florida  7.75 -3.08 5.02 49 Memphis  13.00 -74.94 4.99 52 East Carolina  -7.33 168.23 3.37 55 Tulsa  -1.56 66.22 2.22 56 Navy  2.83 -0.44 1.87 64 Cincinnati  -2.29 41.67 0.52 72 Temple  -0.69 -37.81 -2.32 87 Connecticut  -7.46 -104.25 -10.09 91 Tulane  -7.42 -124.83 -11.08 97 SMU  -15.75 -64.83 -13.68 ACC   4 Clemson  32.25 276.10 35.06 5 Louisville  23.57 364.53 33.62 6 Virginia Tech  27.19 269.17 31.35 13 Miami (FL)  23.61 136.03 22.42 16 Florida St.  15.69 195.46 20.06 23 N.C. State  11.89 170.56 16.30 39 Georgia Tech  10.67 30.65 8.62 61 Wake Forest  4.67 -37.46 1.27 69 Boston Coll.  -2.79 15.04 -1.12 74 North Carolina  -2.88 -28.21 -3.30 78 Pittsburgh  -3.23 -67.71 -5.48 81 Virginia  -6.08 -56.50 -6.83 82 Syracuse  -7.98 -46.15 -7.59 84 Duke  -7.48 -56.29 -7.75 B1G   1 Ohio St.  45.33 369.46 48.37 2 Michigan  44.75 287.27 43.94 17 Maryland  20.72 110.97 19.27 18 Wisconsin  21.88 91.08 19.06 30 Northwestern  17.71 13.48 12.47 36 Nebraska  12.57 34.63 10.08 38 Michigan St.  3.64 143.69 9.48 45 Indiana  1.08 111.02 6.18 63 Penn St.  2.92 -27.15 0.61 65 Iowa  7.50 -97.33 0.22 71 Rutgers  1.25 -63.54 -2.29 88 Illinois  -8.72 -90.22 -10.25 98 Minnesota  -12.19 -130.50 -14.54 99 Purdue  -19.06 -48.17 -15.07 Big XII   8 Oklahoma  25.21 223.21 27.77 27 TCU  9.08 162.67 14.05 28 West Virginia  13.94 80.11 13.23 32 Baylor  8.92 109.04 11.30 34 Oklahoma St.  9.08 94.00 10.67 41 Kansas St.  11.89 5.44 8.19 46 Texas  -0.02 113.10 5.54 47 Texas Tech  4.67 44.44 5.29 75 Iowa St.  -2.92 -36.67 -3.75 113 Kansas  -20.28 -186.28 -22.67 CUSA   43 Southern Miss  3.21 90.90 6.60 54 West. Kentucky  1.65 25.06 2.33 59 Louisiana Tech  0.23 25.29 1.40 86 Old Dominion -10.19 -42.17 -8.86 95 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.67 -99.17 -13.32 105 UTEP  -26.08 -23.63 -18.55 109 Rice  -16.60 -207.60 -21.26 110 Marshall  -19.86 -183.47 -22.25 114 Florida Intl.  -23.45 -145.05 -22.76 116 UT-San Antonio -17.78 -228.00 -23.05 120 Florida Atlantic  -24.65 -203.48 -26.43 122 UNC-Charlotte -33.54 -113.10 -27.92 123 North Texas  -23.06 -283.92 -29.32 INDIES   35 BYU  8.37 92.10 10.10 42 Army  7.77 53.65 7.82 68 Notre Dame  -1.97 17.50 -0.45 96 Massachusetts -11.63 -116.88 -13.50 MAC   21 W. Michigan  19.21 91.21 17.29 40 Toledo  1.86 147.17 8.47 66 Cent. Michigan  -2.50 36.92 0.15 80 Miami (OH)  -10.67 10.67 -6.59 93 Northern Illinois  -11.21 -109.42 -12.85 101 Ball St.  -15.08 -124.67 -16.18 103 Ohio  -18.35 -99.88 -17.14 106 Kent St.  -20.42 -132.94 -20.14 118 Buffalo  -18.67 -223.67 -23.43 119 Akron  -18.06 -280.25 -25.81 121 Bowling Green  -30.42 -142.00 -27.25 124 East. Michigan  -32.25 -170.92 -29.90 MWC   20 Boise St.  15.42 146.42 17.47 31 Air Force  12.94 77.56 12.44 79 San Diego St.  -3.28 -69.72 -5.61 85 Utah St.  -10.29 -25.79 -8.13 90 Wyoming  -6.54 -136.23 -11.05 100 Hawaii  -17.19 -82.02 -15.49 102 Colorado St.  -16.17 -112.83 -16.32 111 Fresno St.  -23.79 -135.15 -22.50 115 New Mexico  -28.00 -85.28 -22.86 117 UNLV  -25.08 -129.02 -23.06 126 Nevada  -28.31 -239.58 -30.64 127 San Jose St.  -34.50 -169.04 -31.30 PAC12     10 Washington St.  22.67 216.22 25.73 11 Colorado  20.48 221.73 24.54 19 Oregon  17.42 147.60 18.86 22 Washington  23.83 9.58 16.36 29 Stanford  17.31 22.73 12.66 37 UCLA  8.87 77.23 9.70 44 USC  5.18 62.20 6.51 50 California  1.60 79.50 4.97 57 Arizona  2.35 5.35 1.83 58 Arizona St.  4.75 -33.94 1.50 60 Utah  -1.71 51.06 1.37 94 Oregon St.  -12.00 -100.00 -12.91 SBC   33 Troy  14.19 35.40 11.20 62 Appalachian State 4.22 -38.82 0.90 77 South Alabama -1.63 -74.42 -4.74 83 Georgia Southern -7.17 -59.61 -7.71 89 LA Lafayette  -12.23 -54.63 -10.84 104 Georgia State -11.21 -203.40 -17.46 107 Idaho  -17.46 -177.54 -20.36 108 Arkansas St.  -21.64 -126.47 -20.64 112 New Mexico St.  -26.03 -105.65 -22.54 125 Texas St. -25.78 -264.89 -30.20 128 LA Monroe  -33.03 -241.17 -33.86 SEC   3 Alabama  34.70 262.88 36.05 7 Mississippi  30.38 162.00 28.21 12 LSU  20.25 200.10 23.33 14 Tennessee  24.00 126.65 22.22 15 Texas A&M  23.52 101.96 20.69 25 Auburn  13.97 122.03 15.31 26 Florida  14.77 91.40 14.33 51 Mississippi St.  4.60 29.67 4.53 53 Arkansas  4.71 -4.21 2.93 67 Georgia  -1.23 8.27 -0.41 70 Missouri  -2.67 8.17 -1.38 73 Kentucky  -2.03 -38.85 -3.26 76 Vanderbilt  0.62 -103.90 -4.69 92 South Carolina  -8.25 -139.93 -12.37   TCU Week-to-week   Ark ISU SMU OU   3.33 18.33 17.00 -2.33   258.33 74.33 258.00 60.00   14.91 15.87 24.01 1.39              

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Pre-Bowl DUSHEE

I don't know what to do with DUSHEE. Using the old methodology, this year in paticular, good teams from bad conferences seem to be over rated based on destroying their weak schedules, even if they lose to the few decent teams on the schedule. Or use the new methodology and middle-of-the-road teams from highly rated conferences get overrated. So either Appalachian State and Western Kentucky look ridiculous in the top 25 or Arkansas and Tennessee look ridiculous in the top 15. And in both cases, Bowling Green gets overrated. So I don't know which ranking to publish, the old one or the new one. I'll post both and let the rabble decide. Old methodology: 1 Oklahoma 28.34 211.81 28.81 2 Alabama 24.29 209.42 26.00 3 Clemson 20.62 233.39 24.68 4 Baylor 18.60 194.81 21.52 5 Ohio St. 21.39 125.82 20.15 6 Mississippi 17.56 146.25 18.56 7 Bowling Green 16.48 147.15 17.88 8 West. Kentucky 16.83 126.47 17.14 9 Notre Dame 16.33 133.04 17.12 10 Memphis 13.99 123.88 15.13 ______________________________________ 11 TCU 11.71 147.80 14.73 12 Florida St. 15.20 94.07 14.54 13 Michigan St. 15.39 85.04 14.25 14 Houston 16.08 65.69 13.80 15 North Carolina 16.61 57.23 13.75 16 Appalachian State 12.35 114.50 13.60 17 Michigan 13.57 93.92 13.44 18 Arkansas 11.35 118.81 13.14 19 USC 13.99 79.17 13.04 20 Tennessee 14.10 75.49 12.94 _________________________________________ 21 Stanford 14.86 63.23 12.87 22 Toledo 13.58 79.94 12.80 23 Boise St. 10.60 118.27 12.60 24 West Virginia 11.17 103.54 12.30 25 Navy 14.71 51.35 12.22 26 Mississippi St. 13.30 68.90 12.09 27 LSU 11.41 94.13 12.02 28 Southern Miss 9.38 114.01 11.60 29 Wisconsin 10.37 88.41 11.06 30 Oklahoma St. 13.05 48.82 10.98 ________________________________________ 31 Washington 12.47 39.11 10.15 32 Florida 10.29 61.78 9.76 33 W. Michigan 8.76 80.39 9.61 34 Iowa 11.43 33.95 9.21 35 BYU 9.84 48.25 8.82 36 UCLA 6.98 73.82 8.11 37 Air Force 5.56 91.71 8.00 38 Nebraska 7.62 60.55 7.92 39 Temple 9.74 27.95 7.80 40 Oregon 8.20 49.21 7.77 __________________________________________ 41 San Diego St. 6.86 62.01 7.48 42 N.C. State 6.88 53.38 7.09 43 Texas Tech 5.01 78.29 7.01 44 Georgia 6.78 53.09 7.01 45 California 6.03 61.89 6.92 46 Georgia Southern 5.42 68.52 6.82 47 South Florida 8.54 22.70 6.76 48 Cincinnati 3.63 92.37 6.75 49 Texas A&M 7.07 42.53 6.71 50 Pittsburgh 5.90 42.28 5.92 ___________________________________________ 51 Utah 8.34 7.42 5.90 52 Louisville 3.41 72.50 5.67 53 Louisiana Tech 3.68 54.08 4.99 54 Marshall 7.82 -13.35 4.59 55 Penn St. 4.73 29.74 4.55 56 Utah St. 4.40 33.01 4.48 57 Middle Tenn. St. 2.60 44.03 3.80 58 Northern Illinois 4.96 3.70 3.48 59 Arizona St. 3.10 27.80 3.37 60 Cent. Michigan 2.07 36.06 3.07 ___________________________________________ 61 Washington St. 1.93 32.93 2.83 62 Northwestern 3.48 0.80 2.36 63 Georgia Tech 1.92 19.85 2.21 64 Arkansas St. 2.74 1.31 1.89 65 Virginia Tech 3.36 -12.71 1.64 66 Auburn 3.32 -14.16 1.55 67 Minnesota -0.06 32.12 1.46 68 East Carolina 1.18 4.63 1.01 69 Miami (FL) 0.14 8.56 0.49 70 Indiana 0.85 -15.15 -0.14 __________________________________________ 71 Illinois -0.96 7.48 -0.29 72 Ohio -2.15 18.85 -0.55 73 Duke -1.66 -9.60 -1.56 74 Akron -3.05 1.94 -1.94 75 Vanderbilt -2.72 -11.68 -2.36 76 Virginia -4.06 -8.76 -3.12 77 Georgia State -5.76 12.10 -3.27 78 Boston Coll. -3.57 -20.44 -3.34 79 Arizona -4.63 -14.85 -3.78 80 Maryland -4.99 -14.97 -4.03 ____________________________________________ 81 Connecticut -2.48 -52.80 -4.12 82 Missouri -3.34 -40.90 -4.14 83 Texas -1.46 -67.91 -4.15 84 Iowa St. -5.03 -17.81 -4.19 85 Tulsa -5.12 -28.26 -4.74 86 Kansas St. -0.56 -98.34 -4.98 87 Troy -5.10 -38.84 -5.22 88 Colorado St. -5.83 -36.48 -5.60 89 Kentucky -6.10 -50.02 -6.41 90 San Jose St. -7.23 -37.45 -6.58 _________________________________________ 91 South Carolina -4.54 -79.65 -6.76 92 Buffalo -6.73 -50.93 -6.87 93 Massachusetts -7.27 -55.53 -7.45 94 Wake Forest -7.85 -49.02 -7.53 95 Nevada -8.96 -72.52 -9.37 96 Florida Atlantic -10.50 -56.24 -9.63 97 Syracuse -5.61 -131.13 -9.88 98 New Mexico -7.76 -114.57 -10.54 99 Purdue -10.70 -107.74 -12.18 100 South Alabama -14.01 -60.79 -12.19 ____________________________________________ 101 Wyoming -14.89 -48.58 -12.20 102 LA Lafayette -13.73 -91.00 -13.42 103 Florida Intl. -12.08 -122.76 -13.81 104 UNLV -14.29 -95.78 -14.01 105 Army -14.24 -99.03 -14.13 106 Rutgers -12.70 -121.80 -14.17 107 Colorado -14.26 -100.66 -14.22 108 SMU -16.21 -84.18 -14.75 109 Ball St. -13.32 -143.55 -15.60 110 Old Dominion -16.10 -112.32 -16.00 __________________________________________ 111 Miami (OH) -18.31 -85.26 -16.20 112 Idaho -17.23 -103.88 -16.35 113 Rice -18.56 -87.45 -16.47 114 UT-San Antonio -17.90 -122.36 -17.66 115 Kent St. -17.45 -129.63 -17.71 116 Texas St. -19.35 -147.44 -19.81 117 Oregon St. -19.16 -161.91 -20.36 118 New Mexico St. -21.88 -130.92 -20.72 119 Fresno St. -20.06 -167.95 -21.24 120 UTEP -22.03 -140.69 -21.28 ___________________________________________ 121 East. Michigan -21.94 -163.65 -22.29 122 North Texas -23.21 -156.61 -22.81 123 Tulane -23.12 -174.27 -23.58 124 UNC-Charlotte -26.21 -145.65 -24.30 125 LA Monroe -25.04 -174.87 -24.89 126 Hawaii -26.69 -191.23 -26.75 127 UCF -26.66 -236.31 -28.85 128 Kansas -30.64 -241.51 -31.74 New Methodology 1 Oklahoma 30.97 239.25 34.14 2 Alabama 31.27 209.58 32.66 3 Clemson 23.91 242.44 29.61 4 Mississippi 24.55 115.60 22.88 5 Baylor 18.46 183.10 22.63 6 Ohio St. 21.53 129.80 21.67 7 Notre Dame 20.76 138.03 21.62 8 Arkansas 18.63 118.37 19.09 9 Bowling Green 15.57 146.56 18.64 10 TCU 13.94 147.11 17.59 ____________________________________________ 11 Michigan St. 19.56 80.17 17.56 12 Memphis 14.71 136.41 17.50 13 Mississippi St. 19.85 73.05 17.35 14 Tennessee 19.17 77.23 17.14 15 LSU 16.98 96.35 16.75 16 Florida St. 16.73 96.53 16.59 17 West. Kentucky 12.34 137.35 15.97 18 North Carolina 18.70 55.88 15.62 19 USC 17.24 69.65 15.42 20 West Virginia 14.12 95.70 14.81 _____________________________________________ 21 Michigan 13.64 91.73 14.26 22 Stanford 16.02 60.99 14.12 23 Navy 14.76 61.95 13.33 24 Washington 16.18 45.04 13.33 25 Toledo 11.69 91.00 12.93 26 Oklahoma St. 15.02 49.23 12.79 27 Florida 13.12 52.53 11.71 28 Houston 11.88 66.64 11.68 29 California 9.81 87.55 11.47 30 BYU 11.71 60.09 11.19 _________________________________________ 31 Boise St. 6.44 119.90 11.05 32 Texas A&M 11.98 46.55 10.61 33 Appalachian State 5.92 115.18 10.44 34 W. Michigan 10.67 58.71 10.42 35 Nebraska 10.94 53.82 10.33 36 Oregon 11.74 40.46 10.11 37 Wisconsin 7.34 91.46 10.05 38 Texas Tech 8.09 82.41 10.04 39 UCLA 6.93 87.27 9.54 40 Iowa 10.84 30.37 8.94 _________________________________________ 41 Georgia 8.19 54.81 8.55 42 Louisville 6.79 71.01 8.53 43 Pittsburgh 8.96 40.48 8.25 44 Cincinnati 3.99 83.94 7.39 45 N.C. State 6.48 49.61 7.12 46 Southern Miss 1.16 109.84 6.97 47 Air Force 1.74 96.93 6.62 48 South Florida 8.33 17.51 6.54 49 Utah 8.33 6.23 5.90 50 Penn St. 6.77 24.09 5.87 ________________________________________ 51 Temple 6.88 18.88 5.65 52 Auburn 9.88 -16.93 5.63 53 Georgia Tech 6.77 17.74 5.51 54 Miami (FL) 6.88 14.05 5.38 55 Georgia Southern 0.72 86.93 5.38 56 Arizona St. 6.11 16.39 5.00 57 San Diego St. 0.16 82.72 4.77 58 Northwestern 6.43 7.20 4.69 59 Utah St. 3.47 36.83 4.39 60 Minnesota 3.77 27.32 4.05 ________________________________________ 61 Virginia Tech 6.08 -11.44 3.41 62 Northern Illinois 3.68 9.05 2.96 63 Vanderbilt 5.20 -9.99 2.90 64 Illinois 3.20 8.45 2.61 65 Washington St. 0.79 31.45 2.30 66 Maryland 3.50 -11.29 1.70 67 Cent. Michigan -0.37 34.49 1.69 68 Louisiana Tech -2.46 54.33 1.42 69 East Carolina 1.44 5.17 1.25 70 Indiana 3.38 -18.71 1.20 ________________________________________ 71 Middle Tenn. St. -1.35 26.26 0.58 72 Virginia 1.22 -9.27 0.29 73 Boston Coll. 1.95 -18.75 0.24 74 Iowa St. 1.99 -27.20 -0.21 75 Marshall -0.38 -9.89 -0.81 76 Missouri 0.83 -45.78 -2.03 77 Texas 3.93 -82.96 -2.06 78 Arkansas St. -3.35 2.83 -2.08 79 Ohio -5.24 22.49 -2.22 80 Kansas St. 3.61 -101.62 -3.32 _________________________________________ 81 Akron -5.47 4.15 -3.41 82 Duke -4.49 -18.77 -4.05 83 South Carolina 0.14 -74.04 -4.08 84 Arizona -4.89 -23.51 -4.58 85 Wake Forest -2.93 -52.93 -4.94 86 Connecticut -3.89 -45.04 -5.13 87 Tulsa -8.15 -26.66 -6.93 88 Syracuse 0.41 -130.34 -7.07 89 Kentucky -6.65 -58.01 -7.70 90 Purdue -4.00 -101.84 -8.41 _______________________________________ 91 Troy -9.26 -40.66 -8.47 92 Colorado St. -11.14 -34.45 -9.37 93 Buffalo -10.01 -50.50 -9.52 94 San Jose St. -12.78 -19.48 -9.62 95 Georgia State -13.87 -12.22 -9.94 96 Massachusetts -11.79 -64.51 -11.49 97 SMU -11.88 -81.04 -12.49 98 Wyoming -15.97 -52.18 -13.59 99 Ball St. -11.00 -111.87 -13.64 100 Rutgers -10.59 -121.58 -13.92 ____________________________________________ 101 Florida Atlantic -16.09 -60.61 -14.15 102 South Alabama -15.20 -71.21 -14.15 103 Nevada -16.54 -73.57 -15.18 104 New Mexico -13.35 -132.91 -16.39 105 Colorado -15.06 -117.84 -16.68 106 UNLV -17.65 -91.57 -16.93 107 Miami (OH) -18.99 -86.94 -17.56 108 LA Lafayette -20.52 -89.77 -18.74 109 Kent St. -16.27 -143.62 -18.94 110 Army -20.68 -100.08 -19.43 ____________________________________________ 111 Idaho -21.31 -96.24 -19.63 112 Oregon St. -15.25 -170.49 -19.77 113 Rice -23.77 -71.01 -19.85 114 Florida Intl. -19.44 -125.74 -20.05 115 Old Dominion -20.91 -113.50 -20.34 116 UT-San Antonio -24.79 -125.90 -23.62 117 Fresno St. -20.88 -174.62 -23.76 118 Texas St. -23.48 -156.90 -24.50 119 North Texas -23.77 -154.88 -24.58 120 New Mexico St. -28.09 -120.12 -25.50 ________________________________________________ 121 East. Michigan -25.66 -161.41 -26.21 122 Tulane -23.94 -184.94 -26.39 123 UTEP -29.23 -137.52 -27.24 124 UNC-Charlotte -30.87 -132.50 -28.05 125 LA Monroe -29.34 -174.98 -29.43 126 Kansas -23.64 -247.83 -29.73 127 UCF -27.15 -238.11 -31.52 128 Hawaii -32.45 -189.97 -32.34

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

New Tweaks to DUSHEE

I can't begin to tell you how many emails I received about not releasing a DUSHEE ranking last week and I heard your pleas and cries. I started playing around with the methodology to respond to the large number of WTF teams this season. As discussed in the last post, I attecked this in two ways; 2) by deemphasizing statistical outliers (i.e., games that are significantly better or worse than the typical performance for a particular team and 2) emphasizing the strength of the opponent. I'll confess I'm uneasy about these changes. One of the things I really liked about the DUSHEE method is it's simplicity. The changes I made add a lot of complexity. And I worry that I'm adding more abitrariness to the methodology. The only arbitrary choice I made in the past was how much to emphasize point differential over yardage. Now I'm raising shit to the third power and adding stuff to the point margin and not to the yardage margin and neither with a great deal of statistical validity. But it made the WTF teams go down in the rakings although not all of them and some of them not as much as you might expect. Bowling Green is still really high. Just not quite as high as before. 1) Deemphasizing Statistical Outliers This is an issue where one or two really good or really bad games drive a particular team's ranking more than their typical performance. The poster child for this was West Virginia whose week 1 game against Georgia Southern was driving their ranking up disproportionately although TCU's performance against Kansas was another example on the other side of the performance scale. To address this, I calculate the average point differential and yardage differential for each team and then the standard deviation across all the games for each. For each game, the point differential and yardage differential is compared to the team average and then divided by the standard deviation. That value is then raised to the 3rd power and added to the point/yardage differential. If the value is under one standard deviation, then it has negligible impact on the team's score. At three standard deviations, it will drive the performance score toward the mean by 9 points. So West Virginia's point differential against Georgia Southern dropped from a 58.6 to a corrected 46.1 prior to correction 2. TCU's yardage differential went from -30.1 to a corrected -21.5 prior to correction 2. 2) Emphasizing Strength of Opponent This is an issue where teams with really weak or really strong schedules stretch the assumption that there is enough cross-correlation among teams to assume one team's "average" opponent is about the same as another team's "average" opponent. This seems to be less true than ever this year as DUSHEE highly rated teams who have feasted on blowing out their opponents in weak conferences. Keep in mind that if this change were made retroactively to MWC-era Frog teams, it would probably have a deleterious effect on those rankings. The correction I've implemented here is to simply add the opponent's DUSHEE score to the point differential. So remember how TCU's score against Kansas benefitted from correction 1? Add in Kansas' DUSHEE score of -31.8 and TCU's corrected point differential falls to -53.3. However the same corrections provide big boosts to their Oklahoma and Baylor scores. Now these two corrections had a big impact on most of the DUSHEE WTF teams, dropping Western Kentucky from 10 to 24, Appalachian State from 13 to 27, and Bowling Green from 8 to 16. Bowling Green wasn't impacted as much as one might think because DUSHEE had BGSU's SOS at 80th, not all that low when compared to Western Kentucky (113th) and Appalachian State (118th). So the next DUSHEE ranking will include these changes.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 Rankings

Frogs are back up to 14th in this weeks ranking. The score of the Oklahoma game almost cancelled out the Kansas game the week prior, raising the Frogs' score by about 1.5 points. The top 4 remain the same with Navy (14th to 8th) and Michigan State (32nd to 24th) both making big jumps up. Memphis fell 20 spots and Houston fell 14. Frogs Week-to-Week Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan | OU YD: 3.40 4.56 6.78 | 42.22 -0.13 16.44 | 43.00 -4.78 -30.67 | 25.40 PD: 133.3 145.2 214.1 | 240.2 28.9 131.7 | 406.0 266.0 -130.6 | 56.2 Score: 8.53 9.86 14.57 | 39.43 1.27 17.15 | 47.73 9.31 -26.58 | 19.57 Despite the loss, TCU's performance against the Sooners earned the third highest DUSHEE score of the season. Next Opponent: Baptist Baylor was looking fairly invincible during the first half of the season against their customary soft schedule, their lowest scoring performance a 66-7 blowout of Kansas. The one thing Baylor can say that the Frogs cannot is that the Bears have taken care of business against bad teams. The Bears have looked a little more vincible of late against Iowa State (45-27), Kansas State (31-24), and Oklahoma (34-44) but returned to early season form against Oklahoma State. Opp: SMU Rice Ttech | Kan WVU ISU | KSU OU OkSt PD: 22.33 39.22 34.56 | 28.22 36.25 9.78 | -0.13 15.50 28.56 YD: 303.0 502.8 104.1 | 150.6 330.6 61.7 | -45.4 116.7 332.7 Score: 29.12 49.76 27.93 | 25.88 39.69 9.41 | -2.21 15.81 34.66 With an average DUSHEE score of 25.6 compared to TCU's 14.1, DUSHEE had Baylor as a 8.5 point favorite against the Frogs, a touchdown higher than Vegas. Conference Rankings SEC 8.15 B12 5.84 B10 4.30 ACC 4.05 P12 3.16 AAC -0.72 MAC -3.31 MWC -6.37 CUSA -8.01 SBC -9.81 The SEC now has a comfortable lead over the Big XII-II for top conference, largely due to the presence of Kansas. Without the Jayhawks, the BXII average score is an even 10.0. WTF with DUSHEE's WTF Teams?!?! DUSHEE seems to be abounding with more WTF teams this season than usual. Generally there are 1 or 2 (last season's most notable was Marshall) but this season there are a half dozen candidates. We'll take a look at 3 of the most obvious. Bowling Green Bowling Green lost this week to Toledo to fall to 8-3. The Falcons' losses have come as a 29-point loss to 17th-ranked Tennessee, a 3-point loss to 29th-ranked Memphis, and a 16-point loss to 16th ranked Toledo. So all of BGSU's losses have come to good opponents. They've had three mediocre wins, a TD win over a bad Purdue team, a 6-point win over a bad Buffalo team, and a The Falcons have made their hay by pounding Maryland (48-27) and the rest of their MAC schedule. And while the MAC isn't a "Power 5" conference, this year they appear to be one of the better "Other 5" or whatever euphemism we're using to describe those conferences these days, ranking behind the American Conference but ahead the Mountain West, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt. And prior to the Toledo loss, Bowling Green had been really rolling scoring nearly 20-points above average against 5 consecutive MAC opponents, UMass (62-38), Akron (59-10), Kent (48-0), Ohio (62-24), and Western Michigan (41-27). Here are BGSU's numbers week-to-week: Opp: Tenn Mary Mem | Pur Buf Umass | Akr KentSt Ohio | WMU Tol YD: -22.44 6.56 4.33 | -8.75 1.89 21.60 | 50.78 34.67 42.78 | 21.00 0.11 PD: -12.4 292.0 135.9 | -19.4 -15.2 203.3 | 265.7 343.4 86.6 | 90.6 53.33 Score: -15.55 18.08 9.27 | -6.74 0.54 23.95 | 46.33 39.24 32.58 | 18.25 2.58 The Falcons are ranked 37th in the Massey Composite and no higher than 20th in any of the rankings used in the composite. DUSHEE clearly overrates Bowling Green at 9th. Appalachian State App State is an 8-2 Sun Belt team ranked 15th in the DUSHEE rankings, having lost badly to Clemson (10-41) and Arkansas State (27-40). Like Bowling Green, they had a few stinker wins, namely Wyoming (31-13) and Troy (44-41). Aside from these 4, they've pounded their Sun Belt opponents, crushing Old Dominion (49-0), Georgia State (37-3), Louisiana-Monroe (59-14), Georgia Southern (31-13), and Idaho (47-20). Opp: Clem ODU Wyo | GaSt ULaMon GaSo | Troy ArkSt Ida PD: -13.89 39.50 0.44 | 33.75 21.78 31.63 | -2.38 -12.00 13.22 YD: 117.7 286.7 -149.2 | 309.3 144.8 291.1 | -66.5 -57.0 143.0 Score: -3.73 39.80 -6.71 | 37.02 21.32 34.75 | -4.71 -10.68 15.53 App State is 48th in the Massey Composite with a high of 21st. Again, DUSHEE clearly overrates the Mountaineers West Virginia Perhaps DUSHEE just has an inherent bias for Mountaineers? West Virginia has been discussed in previous posts but they remain very high in the rankings. Their updated week-to-week looks like this: Opp: GaSo Mary OU | OkSt Bay TCU | Ttech Tex Kan PD: 60.88 26.56 4.50 | 9.67 1.00 -20.33 | 9.00 14.44 17.11 YD: 455.4 207.6 157.4 | 136.0 -7.9 -146.2 | 134.1 -14.2 142.8 Score: 61.97 27.45 10.39 | 12.83 0.30 -20.42 | 12.30 8.96 18.11 West Virginia has avoided really awful performances aside from their game against the Frogs. Their ranking is still largely buoyed by the statistical outlier which is their 44-0 beatdown of a decent Georgia Southern team. Take away that game and WVU's PD falls from 13.65 to 8.74. So evaluating these three teams, one sees two different problems. In the West Virginia case, the problem is that of a statistical outlier. Statistical outliers are simple enough to deal with by downgrading games as they deviate more from the average performance of the team. The BGSU/AppSt problem is one of unbalanced scheduling. The foundation of the methodology is that there is enough interdependency between the 129 FBS teams that the "average" opponent for each team is roughly equivalent. That is not going to be the case for those on either end of the extreme in terms of strength of schedule. This problem is a more difficult one to reduce from the numbers. A blanket diminishing of games against bad teams is dangerous because close games against bad teams (or losses) would be de-emphasized just like blow out wins. And a blanket de-emphasis of blow out wins will diminish the effect of big margin wins against good teams. So the fix is to diminish big margins between widely disparate teams but not small margins. I'll put some thought into how to do that over the off season. Overall Ranking Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Oklahoma 26.35 220.27 27.91 2 Clemson 22.56 247.64 26.67 3 Alabama 24.54 200.61 25.78 4 Baylor 23.81 206.30 25.56 5 Mississippi 17.78 152.28 19.00 6 Ohio St. 19.32 118.00 18.42 7 Notre Dame 17.61 133.43 18.01 8 Navy 18.86 77.66 16.22 9 Bowling Green 13.87 129.43 15.32 10 Michigan 15.16 100.99 14.85 ____________________________________________ 11 West Virginia 13.65 118.32 14.65 12 Mississippi St. 15.94 84.40 14.59 13 North Carolina 17.05 61.73 14.26 14 TCU 10.62 149.10 14.08 15 Appalachian State 12.45 113.32 13.62 16 Toledo 14.70 75.73 13.36 17 Tennessee 14.12 79.45 13.15 18 Florida St. 13.11 89.42 12.94 19 USC 13.74 76.73 12.76 20 Florida 13.26 81.20 12.65 _____________________________________________ 21 Arkansas 10.60 118.79 12.65 22 West. Kentucky 12.91 84.67 12.58 23 Oklahoma St. 15.97 39.73 12.51 24 Michigan St. 12.84 82.26 12.42 25 Stanford 13.85 64.99 12.29 26 Boise St. 9.52 125.49 12.24 27 Houston 13.57 64.59 12.08 28 LSU 11.32 94.50 11.98 29 Memphis 10.54 101.55 11.79 30 Air Force 7.37 134.28 11.22 _______________________________________________ 31 Wisconsin 10.44 88.34 11.11 32 Iowa 11.02 60.07 10.16 33 Southern Miss 6.94 115.03 10.03 34 UCLA 8.73 84.16 9.77 35 W. Michigan 7.62 89.35 9.28 36 BYU 9.33 65.06 9.27 37 Oregon 10.18 45.19 8.91 38 Texas A&M 9.27 53.21 8.68 39 Pittsburgh 7.75 58.63 7.92 40 Washington 9.78 26.86 7.78 _____________________________________________ 41 Nebraska 7.89 51.29 7.67 42 N.C. State 7.19 60.61 7.64 43 Georgia 7.77 51.46 7.60 44 Utah 10.34 14.91 7.59 45 California 6.94 61.79 7.53 46 Texas Tech 5.94 75.14 7.49 47 Georgia Southern 6.13 64.24 7.10 48 South Florida 8.20 21.09 6.46 49 Penn St. 7.88 23.87 6.38 50 Louisiana Tech 5.53 55.00 6.27 ___________________________________________ 51 Cincinnati 2.90 92.31 6.27 52 Temple 8.72 4.18 6.01 53 San Diego St. 5.91 39.21 5.78 54 Marshall 8.40 2.37 5.71 55 Washington St. 4.88 49.04 5.55 56 Northern Illinois 6.95 18.58 5.50 57 Utah St. 6.15 23.76 5.22 58 Louisville 3.03 62.89 4.97 59 Arizona St. 3.99 35.31 4.32 60 Cent. Michigan 4.25 31.31 4.30 ______________________________________________ 61 Northwestern 4.89 9.06 3.68 62 Virginia Tech 4.76 10.70 3.67 63 Georgia Tech 2.45 34.05 3.23 64 Middle Tenn. St. 1.06 39.93 2.58 65 East Carolina 2.75 8.72 2.24 66 Auburn 3.60 -9.47 1.96 67 Minnesota 0.17 37.93 1.90 68 Illinois 0.82 20.88 1.53 69 Miami (FL) -0.40 4.02 -0.08 70 Vanderbilt -0.30 2.19 -0.10 _____________________________________________ 71 Indiana 1.08 -19.25 -0.19 72 Arkansas St. -0.06 -9.66 -0.49 73 Duke -1.26 1.42 -0.77 74 Boston Coll. -1.93 3.32 -1.13 75 Ohio -3.50 14.38 -1.66 76 Missouri -1.15 -32.09 -2.27 77 Iowa St. -2.95 -7.02 -2.30 78 Connecticut -1.02 -38.58 -2.49 79 Arizona -3.86 -7.73 -2.93 80 Akron -3.87 -8.60 -2.98 _____________________________________________ 81 Kansas St. 0.41 -75.12 -3.25 82 Virginia -3.92 -18.08 -3.46 83 Colorado St. -4.30 -15.63 -3.60 84 Maryland -4.73 -18.42 -4.02 85 Kentucky -3.87 -31.10 -4.04 86 Tulsa -4.79 -28.47 -4.53 87 Troy -6.94 -42.22 -6.61 88 Texas -4.78 -73.08 -6.62 89 Buffalo -6.17 -55.39 -6.71 90 South Carolina -4.95 -89.30 -7.49 _______________________________________________ 91 San Jose St. -7.87 -51.31 -7.66 92 Massachusetts -7.96 -60.60 -8.15 93 Wake Forest -8.08 -60.60 -8.23 94 Georgia State -12.11 -43.56 -10.12 95 Florida Atlantic -10.49 -68.24 -10.20 96 Nevada -9.69 -81.13 -10.27 97 SMU -11.79 -61.09 -10.73 98 Syracuse -6.03 -145.89 -10.87 99 Purdue -9.66 -95.03 -10.90 100 Wyoming -15.05 -46.52 -12.22 _______________________________________________ 101 UNLV -12.45 -84.91 -12.29 102 South Alabama -15.65 -47.42 -12.66 103 Rutgers -11.17 -115.45 -12.87 104 LA Lafayette -14.11 -93.58 -13.80 105 Florida Intl. -12.12 -125.86 -13.99 106 New Mexico -10.77 -153.08 -14.37 107 Ball St. -12.52 -141.89 -15.01 108 Colorado -15.54 -105.96 -15.34 109 Old Dominion -16.23 -103.82 -15.69 110 Miami (OH) -18.51 -83.91 -16.28 _________________________________________________ 111 Army -16.87 -114.82 -16.64 112 Kent St. -16.70 -119.02 -16.72 113 UT-San Antonio -16.88 -123.51 -17.06 114 Idaho -18.88 -101.99 -17.38 115 Rice -19.68 -97.28 -17.69 116 Texas St. -18.09 -152.22 -19.21 117 Oregon St. -19.70 -153.40 -20.34 118 New Mexico St. -21.92 -141.10 -21.24 119 UTEP -22.10 -144.64 -21.53 120 North Texas -22.85 -145.31 -22.06 _______________________________________________ 121 Fresno St. -21.26 -186.33 -22.92 122 UNC-Charlotte -25.18 -135.77 -23.16 123 East. Michigan -23.59 -160.52 -23.26 124 Tulane -23.23 -174.08 -23.66 125 LA Monroe -27.49 -187.72 -27.14 126 Hawaii -27.66 -193.76 -27.54 127 UCF -25.87 -236.19 -28.34 128 Kansas -30.01 -247.28 -31.62 Conference Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score AAC 8 Navy 18.86 77.66 16.22 27 Houston 13.57 64.59 12.08 29 Memphis 10.54 101.55 11.79 48 South Florida 8.20 21.09 6.46 51 Cincinnati 2.90 92.31 6.27 52 Temple 8.72 4.18 6.01 65 East Carolina 2.75 8.72 2.24 78 Connecticut -1.02 -38.58 -2.49 86 Tulsa -4.79 -28.47 -4.53 97 SMU -11.79 -61.09 -10.73 125 Tulane -23.23 -174.08 -23.66 128 UCF -25.87 -236.19 -28.34 ACC 2 Clemson 22.56 247.64 26.67 13 North Carolina 17.05 61.73 14.26 18 Florida St. 13.11 89.42 12.94 39 Pittsburgh 7.75 58.63 7.92 42 N.C. State 7.19 60.61 7.64 58 Louisville 3.03 62.89 4.97 62 Virginia Tech 4.76 10.70 3.67 63 Georgia Tech 2.45 34.05 3.23 69 Miami (FL) -0.40 4.02 -0.08 73 Duke -1.26 1.42 -0.77 74 Boston Coll. -1.93 3.32 -1.13 82 Virginia -3.92 -18.08 -3.46 93 Wake Forest -8.08 -60.60 -8.23 98 Syracuse -6.03 -145.89 -10.87 B1G 6 Ohio St. 19.32 118.00 18.42 10 Michigan 15.16 100.99 14.85 24 Michigan St. 12.84 82.26 12.42 31 Wisconsin 10.44 88.34 11.11 32 Iowa 11.02 60.07 10.16 41 Nebraska 7.89 51.29 7.67 49 Penn St. 7.88 23.87 6.38 61 Northwestern 4.89 9.06 3.68 67 Minnesota 0.17 37.93 1.90 68 Illinois 0.82 20.88 1.53 71 Indiana 1.08 -19.25 -0.19 84 Maryland -4.73 -18.42 -4.02 99 Purdue -9.66 -95.03 -10.90 104 Rutgers -11.17 -115.45 -12.87 BXII-II 1 Oklahoma 26.35 220.27 27.91 4 Baylor 23.81 206.30 25.56 11 West Virginia 13.65 118.32 14.65 14 TCU 10.62 149.10 14.08 23 Oklahoma St. 15.97 39.73 12.51 46 Texas Tech 5.94 75.14 7.49 77 Iowa St. -2.95 -7.02 -2.30 81 Kansas St. 0.41 -75.12 -3.25 88 Texas -4.78 -73.08 -6.62 129 Kansas -30.01 -247.28 -31.62 CUSA 22 West. Kentucky 12.91 84.67 12.58 33 Southern Miss 6.94 115.03 10.03 50 Louisiana Tech 5.53 55.00 6.27 54 Marshall 8.40 2.37 5.71 64 Middle Tenn. St. 1.06 39.93 2.58 95 Florida Atlantic -10.49 -68.24 -10.20 106 Florida Intl. -12.12 -125.86 -13.99 110 Old Dominion -16.23 -103.82 -15.69 114 UT-San Antonio -16.88 -123.51 -17.06 116 Rice -19.68 -97.28 -17.69 120 UTEP -22.10 -144.64 -21.53 121 North Texas -22.85 -145.31 -22.06 123 UNC-Charlotte -25.18 -135.77 -23.16 Indies 7 Notre Dame 17.61 133.43 18.01 36 BYU 9.33 65.06 9.27 112 Army -16.87 -114.82 -16.64 MAC 9 Bowling Green 13.87 129.43 15.32 16 Toledo 14.70 75.73 13.36 35 W. Michigan 7.62 89.35 9.28 56 Northern Illinois 6.95 18.58 5.50 60 Cent. Michigan 4.25 31.31 4.30 75 Ohio -3.50 14.38 -1.66 80 Akron -3.87 -8.60 -2.98 89 Buffalo -6.17 -55.39 -6.71 92 Massachusetts -7.96 -60.60 -8.15 108 Ball St. -12.52 -141.89 -15.01 111 Miami (OH) -18.51 -83.91 -16.28 113 Kent St. -16.70 -119.02 -16.72 124 East. Michigan -23.59 -160.52 -23.26 MWC 26 Boise St. 9.52 125.49 12.24 30 Air Force 7.37 134.28 11.22 53 San Diego St. 5.91 39.21 5.78 57 Utah St. 6.15 23.76 5.22 83 Colorado St. -4.30 -15.63 -3.60 91 San Jose St. -7.87 -51.31 -7.66 96 Nevada -9.69 -81.13 -10.27 100 Wyoming -15.05 -46.52 -12.22 101 UNLV -12.45 -84.91 -12.29 107 New Mexico -10.77 -153.08 -14.37 122 Fresno St. -21.26 -186.33 -22.92 127 Hawaii -27.66 -193.76 -27.54 P12 19 USC 13.74 76.73 12.76 25 Stanford 13.85 64.99 12.29 34 UCLA 8.73 84.16 9.77 37 Oregon 10.18 45.19 8.91 40 Washington 9.78 26.86 7.78 44 Utah 10.34 14.91 7.59 45 California 6.94 61.79 7.53 55 Washington St. 4.88 49.04 5.55 59 Arizona St. 3.99 35.31 4.32 79 Arizona -3.86 -7.73 -2.93 109 Colorado -15.54 -105.96 -15.34 118 Oregon St. -19.70 -153.40 -20.34 SBC 15 Appalachian State 12.45 113.32 13.62 47 Georgia Southern 6.13 64.24 7.10 72 Arkansas St. -0.06 -9.66 -0.49 87 Troy -6.94 -42.22 -6.61 94 Georgia State -12.11 -43.56 -10.12 103 South Alabama -15.65 -47.42 -12.66 105 LA Lafayette -14.11 -93.58 -13.80 115 Idaho -18.88 -101.99 -17.38 117 Texas St. -18.09 -152.22 -19.21 119 New Mexico St. -21.92 -141.10 -21.24 126 LA Monroe -27.49 -187.72 -27.14 SEC 3 Alabama 24.54 200.61 25.78 5 Mississippi 17.78 152.28 19.00 12 Mississippi St. 15.94 84.40 14.59 17 Tennessee 14.12 79.45 13.15 20 Florida 13.26 81.20 12.65 21 Arkansas 10.60 118.79 12.65 28 LSU 11.32 94.50 11.98 38 Texas A&M 9.27 53.21 8.68 43 Georgia 7.77 51.46 7.60 66 Auburn 3.60 -9.47 1.96 70 Vanderbilt -0.30 2.19 -0.10 76 Missouri -1.15 -32.09 -2.27 85 Kentucky -3.87 -31.10 -4.04 90 South Carolina -4.95 -89.30 -7.49

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 Rankings -- I've Got Bad News and I've Got Bad News

DUSHEE is a sentient being. He senses the derision and scoffing being heaped on him by certain individuals among the Frog Faithful. He has heard your criticism and feels hurt and defensive. The argument seems to be why and how teams with more losses, in some cases several more and in "weaker" conferences, can be ranked above the Frogs. The answer is that DUSHEE makes no evaluation based on the win-loss binary. It definitively does not view a close win against one of the worst teams in the country as an indication of a better performance than a close loss against a top-25 team. Quite the contrary. Kansas, despite losing to TCU, earned a significantly higher DUSHEE score for losing to the Frogs than TCU did for beating Kansas. Prior to Saturday, TCU had a 13 average point differential and a 195 average yard differential against their opponents than their opponents had against their other opponents. Kansas' comparative numbers were -31 points and -256 yards. By beating Kansas by 6 and outgaining them by 163 (and keep in mind that 105th ranked Rutgers beat Kansas by 13 and outgained them by 177), TCU's performance was almost 4 touchdowns and 100 yards BELOW AVERAGE compared to Kansas' prior opponents. Meanwhile Kansas performance against TCU was a touchdown and 40 yards ABOVE AVERAGE compared to TCU's prior opponents. Looking at this another way, Saturday, Kansas played against TCU more like you would expect an average Nebraska, Oregon, or Cal (teams averaging close to a 7 PD and 40 YD on the year) would have played against them while TCU played Kansas more like you would expect an average New Mexico State or Eastern Michigan to play against them. Still better than Kansas, but not better than probably some 110 teams in FBS. So it is in this implicit way DUSHEE rewards close losses against good teams (which, aside from Saturday, TCU has been) and punishes close wins against bad teams (which, aside from Saturday, Kansas has most definitively been). Voter polls do not traditionally operate in this way. Close wins against bad teams are not punished (at least not much) and close losses against good teams are often punished pretty severely even if the close lose almost exactly matches the expectation set up by the ranking prior to the game (one of the real stupidities of the "human" polling, IMO). West Virginia and Tennessee are high because they have both played among the most difficult schedules and been largely competitive in every game despite losing many of them. DUSHEE takes the philosophy that if the 4th best team in the country loses close games against each of the three teams better than them, they are still the 4th best team in the country despite having 3 losses. Boise's losses have either come against decent teams where they turned the ball over a lot (EIGHT turnovers against Utah State, the definition of flukey) or against bad teams that they dominated in every other statistical category other than turnovers and points (New Mexico, whom they outgained by 230 yards, held a 40-11 first down margin, etc.) Bowling Green lost competitive games to Tennessee and Memphis, both teams in the top 20. By far, their worst performance of the year was a tight win against Purdue. In the dead time between the regular season and the bowls, we'll dive into the numbers of some of these questionable teams a little more. But suffice it to say, DUSHEE only looks at two statistics and the numbers are what they are. TCU dropped 5.5 points in the Kansas game, falling to 22nd. Here is how the Frogs' week-to-week performance looks as of this week: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt Kan 2.11 -0.75 6.78 | 42.22 -1.57 15.88 | 37.86 -1.63 -29.13 145.7 113.0 214.1 | 240.2 19.4 120.3 | 364.3 306.8 -116.1 8.26 4.81 14.59 | 39.45 -0.13 16.24 | 42.37 13.34 -24.88 The Kansas State game has no fallen into negative territory overall. The Frogs have had a negative PD in 4 games now (SMU, KSU, OSU, KU). Kansas was the first game of the season where the Frogs have had a negative YD. Next Opponent: Oklahoma And the news goes from bad to worse as the Sooners' impressive road win against Baylor (and Clemson's weak performance against ACC doormat Syracuse) launched the Sooners into the #1 slot, meaning that the Frogs will get the privilege of following up a game against the worst team in the country with a game against the best team in the country. Here is the Sooners' week-to-week: Akr Tenn Tulsa | WVU Tex KSU | Ttech Kan ISU | Bay 36.00 17.50 13.33 | 26.43 -13.33 53.29 | 43.44 26.00 29.38 | 42.00 314.4 110.6 181.7 | 100.3 -180.9 362.3 | 258.6 256.3 289.0 | 348.1 38.78 16.87 17.43 | 22.34 -17.40 52.56 | 41.12 29.38 33.17 | 44.37 Oklahoma has followed up that increasingly improbable performance against the Longhorns with 5 consecutive dominant performances. Really dominant. Scary dominant. Even prior to the Texas game, the Sooners had a few other moments of looking mortal, coming from behind to beat Tennessee in double overtime and only beating an okay Tulsa team by 2 TDs. The Frogs have only had 2 performances all year with a DUSHEE score above 20 (Texas and West Virginia). Oklahoma has had 7. DUSHEE has Oklahoma as an 18-point favorite against the Frogs in Norman. Top 3/Bottom 3 of the Week 46.99 @Marshall (52-463) vs. FIU (0-209) 46.02 Southern Miss (65-682)@ Rice (10-214) 44.37 Oklahoma (44-511) @ Baylor (34-416) -46.96 @Rice (10-214) vs. Southern Miss (65-682) -45.03 @Hawaii (14-437) vs. Fresno (42-455) -38.37 FIU (0-209) @ Marshall (52-463) Overall Ranking Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Oklahoma 27.40 204.03 27.86 2 Clemson 24.36 239.45 27.50 3 Alabama 24.42 200.10 25.69 4 Baylor 22.23 179.52 23.26 5 Ohio St. 20.52 143.30 20.42 6 Notre Dame 20.34 136.77 19.99 7 Mississippi 16.97 175.91 19.59 8 Bowling Green 15.68 137.49 16.92 9 Memphis 13.78 149.50 16.22 10 West Virginia 14.90 127.95 15.95 ____________________________________________ 11 USC 17.07 96.07 15.90 12 North Carolina 18.69 66.30 15.58 13 Houston 16.51 85.63 15.03 14 Navy 17.73 60.95 14.68 15 Michigan 14.59 90.83 14.00 16 Florida 14.09 96.05 13.91 17 Tennessee 15.12 79.56 13.82 18 Mississippi St. 15.32 76.35 13.81 19 Appalachian State 12.47 111.18 13.54 20 Stanford 13.86 85.97 13.29 _______________________________________________ 21 Boise St. 9.35 142.51 12.94 22 TCU 7.97 156.40 12.67 23 LSU 13.13 82.08 12.61 24 Florida St. 12.54 87.95 12.50 25 Arkansas 10.23 117.68 12.36 26 Oklahoma St. 15.17 46.73 12.31 27 Wisconsin 11.77 94.63 12.30 28 Iowa 11.50 83.29 11.59 29 Toledo 12.50 63.78 11.33 30 Cincinnati 7.12 119.57 10.37 ________________________________________________ 31 W. Michigan 8.81 91.53 10.18 32 Michigan St. 11.18 50.90 9.85 33 UCLA 7.88 89.05 9.44 34 West. Kentucky 8.64 65.72 8.85 35 BYU 8.02 68.72 8.58 36 N.C. State 7.83 68.04 8.42 37 Air Force 5.70 96.18 8.32 38 Southern Miss 5.54 95.68 8.19 39 Utah 11.70 6.49 8.11 40 Texas Tech 6.16 77.55 7.75 _________________________________________________ 41 Louisiana Tech 7.29 61.45 7.75 42 Washington 8.99 30.91 7.45 43 Pittsburgh 7.59 46.22 7.24 44 Nebraska 7.11 47.59 6.98 45 Oregon 7.07 44.80 6.82 46 California 7.21 41.02 6.73 47 Louisville 4.10 82.52 6.61 48 Texas A&M 7.77 26.13 6.41 49 Penn St. 7.77 23.17 6.27 50 Georgia Southern 5.39 56.09 6.23 ________________________________________________ 51 Georgia 5.93 42.86 5.97 52 Georgia Tech 5.79 42.16 5.84 53 Cent. Michigan 5.90 35.63 5.61 54 Marshall 8.33 -0.87 5.51 55 Northern Illinois 6.59 22.27 5.44 56 Utah St. 6.34 21.62 5.25 57 Washington St. 4.10 47.61 4.97 58 San Diego St. 3.73 37.42 4.25 59 Arizona St. 2.74 21.01 2.82 60 Temple 6.47 -32.34 2.79 ________________________________________________ 61 Illinois 2.93 16.61 2.74 62 Middle Tenn. St. 0.59 46.40 2.58 63 Vanderbilt 0.83 40.82 2.48 64 Minnesota -0.28 55.59 2.43 65 Northwestern 3.32 1.02 2.26 66 Virginia Tech 3.06 1.80 2.12 67 South Florida 3.32 -13.23 1.59 68 Auburn 2.38 -2.63 1.46 69 Duke 0.67 9.28 0.89 70 Indiana 1.24 -9.68 0.37 _________________________________________________ 71 Iowa St. -0.81 13.35 0.09 72 Arkansas St. 0.02 -7.99 -0.36 73 East Carolina 0.13 -21.86 -0.94 74 Miami (FL) -1.67 3.39 -0.96 75 Kansas St. 2.47 -60.16 -1.19 76 Arizona -2.54 5.80 -1.42 77 Boston Coll. -3.23 13.50 -1.52 78 Maryland -2.45 -6.30 -1.93 79 Ohio -4.46 10.74 -2.47 80 Missouri -1.92 -28.02 -2.60 _________________________________________________ 81 Tulsa -4.29 -18.56 -3.73 82 Colorado St. -5.00 -16.14 -4.09 83 Virginia -4.91 -18.32 -4.14 84 Buffalo -3.98 -49.24 -4.97 85 Akron -6.53 -17.32 -5.17 86 Massachusetts -5.42 -49.76 -5.95 87 Connecticut -4.61 -61.47 -5.97 88 Texas -4.51 -75.30 -6.55 89 Troy -6.90 -43.91 -6.66 90 Kentucky -7.54 -53.85 -7.56 __________________________________________________ 91 South Carolina -4.98 -93.95 -7.74 92 Wake Forest -8.74 -46.02 -7.99 93 San Jose St. -8.40 -51.42 -8.02 94 UNLV -10.63 -85.98 -11.13 95 Syracuse -6.62 -145.84 -11.27 96 Nevada -10.55 -90.14 -11.27 97 Purdue -9.70 -119.96 -12.11 98 Florida Intl. -9.90 -119.23 -12.21 99 Wyoming -15.45 -46.76 -12.50 100 Florida Atlantic -12.82 -92.06 -12.88 ___________________________________________________ 101 SMU -14.05 -78.01 -13.04 103 South Alabama -16.08 -51.12 -13.12 104 Georgia State -14.94 -68.08 -13.16 105 Rutgers -12.20 -112.23 -13.41 106 New Mexico -11.22 -149.63 -14.52 107 LA Lafayette -15.34 -102.13 -15.03 108 Colorado -15.27 -104.99 -15.11 109 Ball St. -12.56 -146.28 -15.25 110 Army -15.38 -115.83 -15.70 _______________________________________________________ 111 Old Dominion -17.23 -105.37 -16.44 112 Kent St. -17.49 -120.35 -17.32 113 UT-San Antonio -17.79 -116.10 -17.32 114 Idaho -18.56 -109.43 -17.52 115 Oregon St. -16.95 -142.21 -17.99 116 Miami (OH) -20.74 -95.22 -18.31 117 Rice -20.05 -119.02 -18.96 118 UNC-Charlotte -22.53 -117.43 -20.55 119 Tulane -19.74 -158.62 -20.62 120 Texas St. -18.98 -170.79 -20.69 _______________________________________________________ 121 Fresno St. -19.58 -183.20 -21.67 122 North Texas -23.19 -156.67 -22.83 123 East. Michigan -23.81 -163.84 -23.58 124 New Mexico St. -24.89 -157.67 -24.01 125 UCF -22.88 -209.47 -25.10 126 UTEP -25.93 -167.54 -25.17 127 LA Monroe -26.55 -169.76 -25.68 128 Hawaii -26.70 -194.14 -26.93 129 Kansas -27.54 -224.91 -28.93 By Conference Rank Team PD YD Score AAC 9 Memphis 13.78 149.50 16.22 13 Houston 16.51 85.63 15.03 14 Navy 17.73 60.95 14.68 30 Cincinnati 7.12 119.57 10.37 60 Temple 6.47 -32.34 2.79 67 South Florida 3.32 -13.23 1.59 73 East Carolina 0.13 -21.86 -0.94 81 Tulsa -4.29 -18.56 -3.73 87 Connecticut -4.61 -61.47 -5.97 101 SMU -14.05 -78.01 -13.04 119 Tulane -19.74 -158.62 -20.62 125 UCF -22.88 -209.47 -25.10 ACC 2 Clemson 24.36 239.45 27.50 12 North Carolina 18.69 66.30 15.58 24 Florida St. 12.54 87.95 12.50 36 N.C. State 7.83 68.04 8.42 43 Pittsburgh 7.59 46.22 7.24 47 Louisville 4.10 82.52 6.61 52 Georgia Tech 5.79 42.16 5.84 66 Virginia Tech 3.06 1.80 2.12 69 Duke 0.67 9.28 0.89 74 Miami (FL) -1.67 3.39 -0.96 77 Boston Coll. -3.23 13.50 -1.52 83 Virginia -4.91 -18.32 -4.14 92 Wake Forest -8.74 -46.02 -7.99 95 Syracuse -6.62 -145.84 -11.27 B1G 5 Ohio St. 20.52 143.30 20.42 15 Michigan 14.59 90.83 14.00 27 Wisconsin 11.77 94.63 12.30 28 Iowa 11.50 83.29 11.59 32 Michigan St. 11.18 50.90 9.85 44 Nebraska 7.11 47.59 6.98 49 Penn St. 7.77 23.17 6.27 61 Illinois 2.93 16.61 2.74 64 Minnesota -0.28 55.59 2.43 65 Northwestern 3.32 1.02 2.26 70 Indiana 1.24 -9.68 0.37 78 Maryland -2.45 -6.30 -1.93 97 Purdue -9.70 -119.96 -12.11 105 Rutgers -12.20 -112.23 -13.41 BXII-II 1 Oklahoma 27.40 204.03 27.86 4 Baylor 22.23 179.52 23.26 10 West Virginia 14.90 127.95 15.95 22 TCU 7.97 156.40 12.67 26 Oklahoma St. 15.17 46.73 12.31 40 Texas Tech 6.16 77.55 7.75 71 Iowa St. -0.81 13.35 0.09 75 Kansas St. 2.47 -60.16 -1.19 88 Texas -4.51 -75.30 -6.55 129 Kansas -27.54 -224.91 -28.93 CUSA 34 West. Kentucky 8.64 65.72 8.85 38 Southern Miss 5.54 95.68 8.19 41 Louisiana Tech 7.29 61.45 7.75 54 Marshall 8.33 -0.87 5.51 62 Middle Tenn. St. 0.59 46.40 2.58 98 Florida Intl. -9.90 -119.23 -12.21 100 Florida Atlantic -12.82 -92.06 -12.88 111 Old Dominion -17.23 -105.37 -16.44 113 UT-San Antonio -17.79 -116.10 -17.32 117 Rice -20.05 -119.02 -18.96 118 UNC-Charlotte -22.53 -117.43 -20.55 122 North Texas -23.19 -156.67 -22.83 126 UTEP -25.93 -167.54 -25.17 Indies 6 Notre Dame 20.34 136.77 19.99 35 BYU 8.02 68.72 8.58 110 Army -15.38 -115.83 -15.70 MAC 8 Bowling Green 15.68 137.49 16.92 29 Toledo 12.50 63.78 11.33 31 W. Michigan 8.81 91.53 10.18 53 Cent. Michigan 5.90 35.63 5.61 55 Northern Illinois 6.59 22.27 5.44 79 Ohio -4.46 10.74 -2.47 84 Buffalo -3.98 -49.24 -4.97 85 Akron -6.53 -17.32 -5.17 86 Massachusetts -5.42 -49.76 -5.95 109 Ball St. -12.56 -146.28 -15.25 112 Kent St. -17.49 -120.35 -17.32 116 Miami (OH) -20.74 -95.22 -18.31 123 East. Michigan -23.81 -163.84 -23.58 MWC 21 Boise St. 9.35 142.51 12.94 37 Air Force 5.70 96.18 8.32 56 Utah St. 6.34 21.62 5.25 58 San Diego St. 3.73 37.42 4.25 82 Colorado St. -5.00 -16.14 -4.09 93 San Jose St. -8.40 -51.42 -8.02 94 UNLV -10.63 -85.98 -11.13 96 Nevada -10.55 -90.14 -11.27 99 Wyoming -15.45 -46.76 -12.50 106 New Mexico -11.22 -149.63 -14.52 121 Fresno St. -19.58 -183.20 -21.67 128 Hawaii -26.70 -194.14 -26.93 P12 11 USC 17.07 96.07 15.90 20 Stanford 13.86 85.97 13.29 33 UCLA 7.88 89.05 9.44 39 Utah 11.70 6.49 8.11 42 Washington 8.99 30.91 7.45 45 Oregon 7.07 44.80 6.82 46 California 7.21 41.02 6.73 57 Washington St. 4.10 47.61 4.97 59 Arizona St. 2.74 21.01 2.82 76 Arizona -2.54 5.80 -1.42 108 Colorado -15.27 -104.99 -15.11 115 Oregon St. -16.95 -142.21 -17.99 SBC 19 Appalachian State 12.47 111.18 13.54 50 Georgia Southern 5.39 56.09 6.23 72 Arkansas St. 0.02 -7.99 -0.36 89 Troy -6.90 -43.91 -6.66 103 South Alabama -16.08 -51.12 -13.12 104 Georgia State -14.94 -68.08 -13.16 107 LA Lafayette -15.34 -102.13 -15.03 114 Idaho -18.56 -109.43 -17.52 120 Texas St. -18.98 -170.79 -20.69 124 New Mexico St. -24.89 -157.67 -24.01 127 LA Monroe -26.55 -169.76 -25.68 SEC 3 Alabama 24.42 200.10 25.69 7 Mississippi 16.97 175.91 19.59 16 Florida 14.09 96.05 13.91 17 Tennessee 15.12 79.56 13.82 18 Mississippi St. 15.32 76.35 13.81 23 LSU 13.13 82.08 12.61 25 Arkansas 10.23 117.68 12.36 48 Texas A&M 7.77 26.13 6.41 51 Georgia 5.93 42.86 5.97 63 Vanderbilt 0.83 40.82 2.48 68 Auburn 2.38 -2.63 1.46 80 Missouri -1.92 -28.02 -2.60 90 Kentucky -7.54 -53.85 -7.56 91 South Carolina -4.98 -93.95 -7.74

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 10 -- Don't Fret Frog Fans!

On a gloomy post-loss (post-non-win?) Monday, DUSHEE is here to give you good cheer and boost your morose spirits. Due to a number of factors, including the sizeable yardage advantage TCU had over Oklahoma State, DUSHEE didn't punish the Frogs as severely as you might think. TCU's DUSHEE score only dropped a point after the loss and when combined with even larger drops in DUSHEE score for both LSU and West Virginia who were ranked just above the Frogs in the poll, the Frogs actually climbed 2 spots and into the top 10. Furthermore, Baylor dropped further this week, not only falling out of the #2 spot to #4 but also falling out of the top spot for the Conference as Oklahoma climbed up to #3. So why the hell are you so mopey this morning? Absurd as this may seem, I feel like some more apologetics are in order. Part of the philosophy (and bias) that goes into the DUSHEE method is that margin of victory, while the most heavily weighted and most important metric in determining the best team on the field, is also highly sensitive to random factors that are poor metrics of team quality. Upsets happen. If Team A played Team B ten times, Team A might only win once, but that one time might be the day the game is actually played. And often times, when an obviously inferior team wins, it is aided by the random luck of the turnover. The Frogs were bitten severely by the random bad luck of the turnover on Saturday. I think it is extremely unlikely that if the Frogs played Oklahoma State again that they would turn the ball over 4 times. What I think is much more likely is that the Frogs would have still dominated total yards. I also think it would continue to be likely that the Frogs would prove to be utterly incapable of stopping the long ball (they were also quite fortunate not to have given up 2-3 long TDs to WVU the week before), but with fewer opportunities to hit the long ball and continuing to dominate possession and yardage, I think the Frogs win that game more times than not. The Frogs finished the game with a point differential of 0.43, meaning that our margin of loss against the Cowboys was about what the average margin of loss Oklahoma State's other opponents have had against them. Oklahoma State has averaged (roughly) a 20-point win against their opponents. In that respect, we were average. However, the Frogs also finished the game with a yardage differential of 310.0 yards, meaning that we outgained Oklahoma State by 310 more yards than their average opponent had. Typically, a team can expect one point in point differential for every 7 yards of yardage differential. That means for a "typical" performance, a yardage differential of 310 yards should yield an expected point differential of 44 points. We had a point differential of 0.43. We lost by 20 points. So, even with our total inability to stop a deep ball, had we been able to not turn the ball over and maintained the same dominance in yardage margin, the expected result of the game with that yardage differential would have been a ~24 point Frog win. DUSHEE awards teams 1/3 of the value of the "expected" point differential based on the yardage differential, meaning DUSHEE awarded TCU a 15.06 score (Point Differential + 1/3 Expected Point Differential Based on Yardage Differential), which placed the Oklahoma State performance roughly in the same territory as the Tech and Iowa State performances and significantly better than our performances in wins against Minnesota, SMU or Kansas State. Here are the updated week-by-week DUSHEE scores for the Frogs: Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU OkSt PD: 2.25 2.29 5.38 | 44.38 -0.50 15.29 | 36.17 0.43 YD: 158.9 129.7 192.3 | 241.6 37.3 126.9 | 366.8 310.0 Score: 9.07 7.71 12.75 | 41.10 1.45 16.24 | 41.60 15.06 Next Opponent: Kansas Even if you find no solace in DUSHEE's rationalization of the Oklahoma State performance, perhaps you can find solace in the fact that our next opponent strengthened its hold on DUSHEE's WTitU (Worst Team in the Universe) with a -45.12 DUSHEE Score performance against Texas, rated the second worst of the week. A look at Kansas' week-to-week tally is a sight for sore Frog eyes: Opp: Mem Rut ISU | Bay Ttech OkSt | OU Tex PD: -23.86 -33.71 -40.71 | -31.50 -9.25 -31.57 | -30.13 -47.88 YD: -198.6 -347.9 -314.3 | -190.0 -91.3 -318.6 | -309.9 -277.0 Score: -25.37 -39.06 -42.13 | -30.06 -10.52 -36.23 | -34.86 -45.12 In only one game this year have the Jayhawks not been at least 25 points worse than an average opponent, a 30-20 loss to Texas Tech. Every other Jayhawk game has been a horrorshow. DUSHEE has the Frogs a FIFTY-FOUR point favorite at home against Kansas. The Frogs should be able to win this game with each player literally having one arm tied behind his back. Who knows, maybe that would help our deep coverage. Top 3/ Bottom 3 Performances of the Week The top and bottom performances of the week occurred in the same Thursday #MACtion game, where Western Michigan destroyed David Letterman's alma mater Ball State 54-7 and outgained them by 559 yards. The game lifted WMU from 58th to 36th in this week's ranking and dropped Ball from 97th to 109th. Top 3 Performances 48.54 @Western Michigan (54-711) vs. Ball St. (7-152) 42.46 @North Carolina (66-704) vs. Duke (31-533) 39.31 @Alabama (30-434) vs. LSU (16-182) Bottom 3 Performances -55.36 Ball St. (7-152) @ Western Michigan (54-711) -45.12 Kansas (20-426) @ Texas (59-598) -44.50 @Purdue (14-263) vs. Illinois (48-595) Conference Strength The SEC and Big XII-II are still far and away the top two conferences in the country according to DUSHEE. DUSHEE has the Pac-12 as close to the SEC as the American Athletic Conference is to the Pac-12. SEC 8.20 B12 7.27 B10 4.86 ACC 4.81 P12 3.72 AAC -0.75 MAC -3.70 MWC -7.54 CUSA -9.40 SBC -11.65 Strength of Schedule For DUSHEE Top 15: Rank Team SOS SOSRank 1 Clemson 8.96 7 2 Alabama 7.33 16 3 Oklahoma -0.23 66 4 Baylor -4.14 101 5 Notre Dame 7.42 15 6 Ohio St. -2.00 82 7 Mississippi 7.00 17 8 USC 4.53 27 9 TCU 3.53 34 10 West Virginia 13.04 1 11 LSU 2.49 47 12 Michigan -0.32 67 13 Houston -6.80 114 14 Bowling Green -2.36 84 15 Tennessee 10.21 3 Overall 15 Hardest Schedules: WVU 13.04 1 Mary 12.48 2 Tenn 10.21 3 KSU 9.75 4 Vandy 9.04 5 Wash 8.99 6 Clem 8.96 7 Kan 8.30 8 Ark 7.89 9 GaTech 7.83 10 BC 7.79 11 Uva 7.74 12 ISU 7.65 13 Aub 7.44 14 ND 7.42 15 Overall DUSHEE Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Clemson 28.29 268.45 31.66 2 Alabama 23.09 221.08 25.93 3 Oklahoma 25.22 185.13 25.64 4 Baylor 23.29 196.78 24.91 5 Notre Dame 21.67 165.16 22.32 6 Ohio St. 20.80 137.20 20.41 7 Mississippi 16.66 178.29 19.61 8 USC 19.88 108.96 18.44 9 TCU 13.21 195.44 18.12 10 West Virginia 16.15 152.15 18.02 ___________________________________________ 11 LSU 17.46 102.50 16.52 12 Michigan 16.68 105.82 16.16 13 Houston 17.05 96.65 15.98 14 Bowling Green 14.33 133.50 15.92 15 Tennessee 17.22 89.58 15.75 16 Boise St. 12.95 148.29 15.70 17 North Carolina 17.49 81.31 15.54 18 Mississippi St. 18.66 59.89 15.29 19 Stanford 15.90 86.52 14.72 20 Florida 15.27 91.44 14.54 ____________________________________________ 21 Oklahoma St. 17.56 46.89 13.95 22 Memphis 10.95 132.74 13.63 23 Navy 16.31 50.23 13.27 24 Wisconsin 12.44 95.30 12.84 25 Iowa 12.92 83.05 12.57 26 Appalachian State 11.51 102.41 12.55 27 Cincinnati 8.36 136.33 12.08 28 Michigan St. 12.69 74.20 12.00 29 BYU 10.64 101.43 11.93 30 N.C. State 10.01 87.21 10.83 _____________________________________________ 31 Florida St. 11.34 67.33 10.77 32 Toledo 12.11 51.69 10.54 33 Arkansas 7.51 102.65 9.90 34 Utah 14.02 8.74 9.76 35 Louisiana Tech 9.02 72.83 9.48 36 W. Michigan 8.23 81.48 9.37 37 West. Kentucky 8.88 71.30 9.32 38 UCLA 8.18 79.44 9.24 39 Washington 12.54 11.07 8.89 40 Louisville 6.33 95.16 8.76 _____________________________________________ 41 Texas Tech 6.23 79.27 7.93 42 Nebraska 7.50 53.96 7.57 43 Texas A&M 7.98 31.86 6.84 44 Georgia Tech 5.86 59.91 6.76 45 Penn St. 8.24 22.57 6.57 46 Georgia 5.53 55.62 6.34 47 Air Force 3.24 78.21 5.89 48 California 7.48 17.82 5.84 49 Cent. Michigan 5.57 40.91 5.66 50 Temple 9.18 -14.41 5.43 _____________________________________________ 51 Pittsburgh 5.19 39.51 5.35 52 Northern Illinois 6.40 19.44 5.20 53 Utah St. 6.22 19.85 5.09 54 Oregon 4.59 41.27 5.03 55 Northwestern 5.66 23.67 4.90 56 Washington St. 2.60 63.13 4.74 57 Vanderbilt 1.80 59.97 4.06 58 Arizona St. 1.90 55.86 3.93 59 Illinois 3.28 19.51 3.12 60 Georgia Southern 1.72 41.02 3.10 ____________________________________________ 61 Southern Miss 0.60 54.23 2.98 62 Kansas St. 6.36 -29.40 2.84 63 Virginia Tech 4.12 -7.32 2.40 64 Middle Tenn. St. 0.86 38.10 2.39 65 Duke 2.46 14.35 2.32 66 Auburn 3.33 -15.20 1.50 67 Minnesota -2.30 54.24 1.05 68 Miami (FL) 0.76 1.44 0.58 69 San Diego St. 0.08 4.60 0.27 70 Iowa St. -1.90 21.22 -0.26 ______________________________________________ 71 Indiana 0.89 -19.19 -0.32 72 East Carolina 0.48 -23.44 -0.80 73 Boston Coll. -2.30 13.39 -0.90 74 Marshall 0.82 -39.33 -1.33 75 Maryland -2.22 -18.59 -2.37 76 Arkansas St. -2.22 -19.32 -2.40 77 South Florida -0.79 -44.49 -2.65 78 Arizona -4.43 5.52 -2.69 79 Tulsa -3.22 -17.04 -2.96 80 Virginia -4.26 -15.85 -3.59 _____________________________________________ 81 Troy -3.69 -35.00 -4.13 82 Colorado St. -6.16 -9.05 -4.54 83 Ohio -6.75 -5.05 -4.74 84 Missouri -3.31 -56.33 -4.89 85 Akron -6.59 -10.95 -4.91 86 Massachusetts -4.19 -46.06 -4.99 87 Buffalo -4.67 -46.12 -5.32 88 Texas -2.93 -75.91 -5.57 89 Connecticut -6.01 -71.11 -7.40 90 Kentucky -6.68 -69.19 -7.75 _______________________________________________ 91 South Carolina -6.54 -93.56 -8.82 92 Wake Forest -9.20 -72.28 -9.58 93 San Jose St. -10.05 -61.61 -9.64 94 SMU -10.87 -51.94 -9.72 95 Florida Intl. -7.35 -112.41 -10.26 96 Wyoming -14.40 -27.68 -10.92 97 UNLV -9.82 -96.58 -11.15 98 Florida Atlantic -12.02 -77.19 -11.70 99 Purdue -9.79 -127.35 -12.60 100 Nevada -12.53 -100.03 -13.12 ______________________________________________ 101 Army -12.57 -102.56 -13.27 103 Syracuse -8.78 -161.13 -13.54 104 Rutgers -12.65 -113.53 -13.85 105 Rice -16.24 -84.37 -14.85 106 Oregon St. -14.80 -110.67 -15.14 107 LA Lafayette -16.07 -96.95 -15.34 108 Kent St. -16.16 -103.61 -15.71 109 Ball St. -13.07 -151.86 -15.95 110 Georgia State -18.60 -79.49 -16.19 _______________________________________________ 111 South Alabama -18.86 -80.05 -16.39 112 New Mexico -15.50 -158.12 -17.87 113 Old Dominion -18.41 -120.06 -17.99 114 Colorado -18.67 -119.89 -18.16 115 UT-San Antonio -18.85 -119.22 -18.25 116 Miami (OH) -21.38 -95.84 -18.82 117 Idaho -20.80 -120.99 -19.63 118 Texas St. -18.71 -173.32 -20.74 119 Tulane -20.87 -163.91 -21.72 120 UNC-Charlotte -25.02 -139.44 -23.33 ________________________________________________ 121 North Texas -24.58 -153.57 -23.71 122 UCF -21.72 -202.24 -24.12 123 Fresno St. -22.80 -188.76 -24.20 124 LA Monroe -25.10 -157.32 -24.23 125 East. Michigan -24.61 -166.46 -24.34 126 New Mexico St. -25.70 -160.30 -24.77 127 UTEP -26.09 -159.92 -25.02 128 Hawaii -24.90 -197.90 -26.03 129 Kansas -31.08 -255.93 -32.92 By Conference Rank Team PD YD Score AAC 13 Houston 17.05 96.65 15.98 22 Memphis 10.95 132.74 13.63 23 Navy 16.31 50.23 13.27 27 Cincinnati 8.36 136.33 12.08 50 Temple 9.18 -14.41 5.43 72 East Carolina 0.48 -23.44 -0.80 77 South Florida -0.79 -44.49 -2.65 79 Tulsa -3.22 -17.04 -2.96 89 Connecticut -6.01 -71.11 -7.40 94 SMU -10.87 -51.94 -9.72 119 Tulane -20.87 -163.91 -21.72 122 UCF -21.72 -202.24 -24.12 ACC 1 Clemson 28.29 268.45 31.66 17 North Carolina 17.49 81.31 15.54 30 N.C. State 10.01 87.21 10.83 31 Florida St. 11.34 67.33 10.77 40 Louisville 6.33 95.16 8.76 44 Georgia Tech 5.86 59.91 6.76 51 Pittsburgh 5.19 39.51 5.35 63 Virginia Tech 4.12 -7.32 2.40 65 Duke 2.46 14.35 2.32 68 Miami (FL) 0.76 1.44 0.58 73 Boston Coll. -2.30 13.39 -0.90 80 Virginia -4.26 -15.85 -3.59 92 Wake Forest -9.20 -72.28 -9.58 103 Syracuse -8.78 -161.13 -13.54 B1G 6 Ohio St. 20.80 137.20 20.41 12 Michigan 16.68 105.82 16.16 24 Wisconsin 12.44 95.30 12.84 25 Iowa 12.92 83.05 12.57 28 Michigan St. 12.69 74.20 12.00 42 Nebraska 7.50 53.96 7.57 45 Penn St. 8.24 22.57 6.57 55 Northwestern 5.66 23.67 4.90 59 Illinois 3.28 19.51 3.12 67 Minnesota -2.30 54.24 1.05 71 Indiana 0.89 -19.19 -0.32 75 Maryland -2.22 -18.59 -2.37 99 Purdue -9.79 -127.35 -12.60 104 Rutgers -12.65 -113.53 -13.85 BXII-II 3 Oklahoma 25.22 185.13 25.64 4 Baylor 23.29 196.78 24.91 9 TCU 13.21 195.44 18.12 10 West Virginia 16.15 152.15 18.02 21 Oklahoma St. 17.56 46.89 13.95 41 Texas Tech 6.23 79.27 7.93 62 Kansas St. 6.36 -29.40 2.84 70 Iowa St. -1.90 21.22 -0.26 88 Texas -2.93 -75.91 -5.57 129 Kansas -31.08 -255.93 -32.92 CUSA 35 Louisiana Tech 9.02 72.83 9.48 37 West. Kentucky 8.88 71.30 9.32 61 Southern Miss 0.60 54.23 2.98 64 Middle Tenn. St. 0.86 38.10 2.39 74 Marshall 0.82 -39.33 -1.33 95 Florida Intl. -7.35 -112.41 -10.26 98 Florida Atlantic -12.02 -77.19 -11.70 105 Rice -16.24 -84.37 -14.85 113 Old Dominion -18.41 -120.06 -17.99 115 UT-San Antonio -18.85 -119.22 -18.25 120 UNC-Charlotte -25.02 -139.44 -23.33 121 North Texas -24.58 -153.57 -23.71 127 UTEP -26.09 -159.92 -25.02 Indies 5 Notre Dame 21.67 165.16 22.32 29 BYU 10.64 101.43 11.93 101 Army -12.57 -102.56 -13.27 MAC 14 Bowling Green 14.33 133.50 15.92 32 Toledo 12.11 51.69 10.54 36 W. Michigan 8.23 81.48 9.37 49 Cent. Michigan 5.57 40.91 5.66 52 Northern Illinois 6.40 19.44 5.20 83 Ohio -6.75 -5.05 -4.74 85 Akron -6.59 -10.95 -4.91 86 Massachusetts -4.19 -46.06 -4.99 87 Buffalo -4.67 -46.12 -5.32 108 Kent St. -16.16 -103.61 -15.71 109 Ball St. -13.07 -151.86 -15.95 116 Miami (OH) -21.38 -95.84 -18.82 125 East. Michigan -24.61 -166.46 -24.34 MWC 16 Boise St. 12.95 148.29 15.70 47 Air Force 3.24 78.21 5.89 53 Utah St. 6.22 19.85 5.09 69 San Diego St. 0.08 4.60 0.27 82 Colorado St. -6.16 -9.05 -4.54 93 San Jose St. -10.05 -61.61 -9.64 96 Wyoming -14.40 -27.68 -10.92 97 UNLV -9.82 -96.58 -11.15 100 Nevada -12.53 -100.03 -13.12 112 New Mexico -15.50 -158.12 -17.87 123 Fresno St. -22.80 -188.76 -24.20 128 Hawaii -24.90 -197.90 -26.03 P12 8 USC 19.88 108.96 18.44 19 Stanford 15.90 86.52 14.72 34 Utah 14.02 8.74 9.76 38 UCLA 8.18 79.44 9.24 39 Washington 12.54 11.07 8.89 48 California 7.48 17.82 5.84 54 Oregon 4.59 41.27 5.03 56 Washington St. 2.60 63.13 4.74 58 Arizona St. 1.90 55.86 3.93 78 Arizona -4.43 5.52 -2.69 106 Oregon St. -14.80 -110.67 -15.14 114 Colorado -18.67 -119.89 -18.16 SBC 26 Appalachian State 11.51 102.41 12.55 60 Georgia Southern 1.72 41.02 3.10 76 Arkansas St. -2.22 -19.32 -2.40 81 Troy -3.69 -35.00 -4.13 107 LA Lafayette -16.07 -96.95 -15.34 110 Georgia State -18.60 -79.49 -16.19 111 South Alabama -18.86 -80.05 -16.39 117 Idaho -20.80 -120.99 -19.63 118 Texas St. -18.71 -173.32 -20.74 124 LA Monroe -25.10 -157.32 -24.23 126 New Mexico St. -25.70 -160.30 -24.77 SEC 2 Alabama 23.09 221.08 25.93 7 Mississippi 16.66 178.29 19.61 11 LSU 17.46 102.50 16.52 15 Tennessee 17.22 89.58 15.75 18 Mississippi St. 18.66 59.89 15.29 20 Florida 15.27 91.44 14.54 33 Arkansas 7.51 102.65 9.90 43 Texas A&M 7.98 31.86 6.84 46 Georgia 5.53 55.62 6.34 57 Vanderbilt 1.80 59.97 4.06 66 Auburn 3.33 -15.20 1.50 84 Missouri -3.31 -56.33 -4.89 90 Kentucky -6.68 -69.19 -7.75 91 South Carolina -6.54 -93.56 -8.82

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE Rankings

Our long national nightmare is over! Clemson has leapt Baylor as the new DUSHEE Number 1. It was a Halloween miracle! DUSHEE was very impressed by the Frogs' performance against West Virginia. As this year's WTF team, DUSHEE has held (and continues to hold) the Mountaineers in very high regard. TCU's performance earned the top performance of the week edging out Washington's beatdown of the fighting RichRods and Clemson's shootout win over NC State. The Frogs ranking jumped from 18th to 11th and their DUSHEE score went up 4 points. The loss dropped WVU from 4th to 8th based on a 6 point drop in DUSHEE score. West Virginia's schedule now ranks as the most difficult in the FBS. TCU Week-to-Week The Frogs appear to be on an upward trajectory with their three highest rated performances in the last four games. That said, their one not-so-great performance during that time continues to look more and more mediocre as Kansas State continues to crumble. Another statistic of worry is the fact that TCU now has an average DUSHEE score of 28.9 at home but only 12.0 on the road meaning the Frogs have been almost 2 TDs worse on the road than at home. Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU | WVU 3.71 2.83 6.43 | 39.00 -0.60 19.83 | 36.40 174.4 139.2 209.4 | 210.3 31.6 173.0 | 368.2 10.90 8.61 14.40 | 36.15 1.13 21.57 | 42.04 Frogs' Next Opponent If the Frogs have been on a steady upward trajectory over the season, the Cowboys' season has looked more like a bathtub. They looked strong early against mediocre-to-bad out-of-conference competition, looked really average at the beginning of the conference schedule, then has looked stronger the last two games against a terrible Kansas and decent Tech team. The Cowboys rank 27th in this week's DUSHEE poll with a score of 11.5. Giving the Cowboys 3 points for home field, DUSHEE has the Cowboys as 5-point underdogs at home to the Frogs. Vegas has a slightly more confidence in the Frogs, installing them as 5.5-point favorites. CMU UTSA Tex | KSU WVU Kan | Ttech 15.57 47.57 -6.71 | -6.60 8.80 15.67 | 22.43 148.6 120.9 0.0 | 4.0 -75.8 67.2 | 68.9 17.55 37.55 -4.48 | -4.21 2.21 13.69 | 18.28 Top 3/Bottom 3 Performances of the Week 42.04 @TCU (40-616) vs. WVU (10-327) 40.06 @Washington (49-468) vs. Arizona (3-330) 38.65 Clemson (56-623) @ NC State (41-389) -48.24 @Hawaii (7-178) vs. Air Force (58-576) -45.26 UCF (7-313) @ Cincinnati (52-726) -43.14 Arizona (3-330) @ Washington (49-468) Conference Strength SEC 9.10 B12 8.43 ACC 5.34 B10 5.23 P12 3.97 AAC -0.89 MAC -4.04 MWC -8.57 CUSA -10.66 SBC -13.03 Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Clemson 29.15 271.48 32.54 2 Baylor 28.45 247.51 30.92 3 Alabama 23.19 205.61 25.38 4 Oklahoma 24.18 165.19 24.10 5 Notre Dame 21.92 173.71 23.00 6 Mississippi 19.63 201.73 22.82 7 Ohio St. 21.97 136.13 21.22 8 West Virginia 19.12 167.95 20.85 9 USC 22.54 117.32 20.69 10 LSU 19.74 131.21 19.50 _______________________________________________ 11 TCU 15.37 186.59 19.26 12 Tennessee 20.47 113.17 19.11 13 Florida 18.99 105.93 17.78 14 Memphis 13.96 148.86 16.49 15 Michigan 16.80 104.50 16.24 16 Houston 16.46 108.19 16.20 17 Appalachian State 14.78 120.41 15.66 18 Mississippi St. 18.74 62.64 15.52 19 Bowling Green 12.11 147.79 15.21 20 Boise St. 12.49 140.04 15.09 ________________________________________________ 21 Wisconsin 14.04 113.80 14.85 22 Iowa 15.04 94.80 14.60 23 Stanford 15.56 73.69 13.93 24 BYU 12.12 100.50 12.93 25 Toledo 13.94 63.21 12.35 26 Michigan St. 13.36 70.35 12.30 27 Oklahoma St. 13.82 47.66 11.51 28 Texas A&M 12.27 68.66 11.50 29 Texas Tech 9.14 105.93 11.21 30 Utah 14.66 28.43 11.15 _________________________________________________ 31 Florida St. 11.15 63.32 10.49 32 North Carolina 12.04 44.44 10.17 33 Washington 14.48 3.53 9.82 34 N.C. State 8.09 85.38 9.51 35 California 9.59 59.76 9.28 36 Arkansas 7.03 89.48 9.01 37 Navy 11.47 26.44 8.92 38 Louisville 5.84 97.23 8.59 39 West. Kentucky 7.89 66.14 8.46 40 Cincinnati 5.58 93.63 8.24 _____________________________________________________ 41 Georgia Tech 6.81 69.28 7.89 42 Penn St. 9.54 25.88 7.61 43 Louisiana Tech 6.58 66.20 7.58 44 Utah St. 8.00 27.59 6.66 45 UCLA 6.17 52.21 6.63 46 Nebraska 6.07 48.38 6.38 47 Cent. Michigan 5.83 46.13 6.11 48 Northwestern 6.58 27.92 5.74 49 Temple 9.79 -22.85 5.43 50 Pittsburgh 5.41 30.40 5.07 _____________________________________________________ 51 Duke 5.33 30.52 5.03 52 Georgia 4.67 37.96 4.94 53 Arizona St. 3.25 53.82 4.76 54 Washington St. 1.95 68.84 4.62 55 Air Force 1.25 73.51 4.38 56 Virginia Tech 5.89 7.27 4.28 57 Vanderbilt 0.50 79.63 4.17 58 W. Michigan 4.32 25.45 4.11 59 Miami (FL) 3.63 18.78 3.33 60 Northern Illinois 3.28 10.72 2.71 _____________________________________________________ 61 Southern Miss 0.34 50.78 2.68 62 Iowa St. 0.70 41.57 2.48 63 Oregon 3.62 -4.08 2.22 64 Georgia Southern 0.65 20.80 1.44 65 East Carolina 0.79 3.80 0.71 66 Boston Coll. -0.81 20.08 0.43 67 Minnesota -3.02 46.50 0.23 68 Tulsa -1.13 18.29 0.13 69 San Diego St. -0.67 11.41 0.11 70 Illinois 0.26 -5.02 -0.07 __________________________________________________ 71 Marshall 2.22 -44.05 -0.64 72 Auburn 0.98 -33.19 -0.95 73 Indiana 0.32 -24.24 -0.96 74 Middle Tenn. St. -3.37 20.42 -1.26 75 Kansas St. 1.46 -69.79 -2.40 76 Virginia -3.68 -10.02 -2.93 77 Massachusetts -2.62 -26.51 -3.02 78 South Florida -0.13 -77.50 -3.83 79 Arizona -6.35 -1.65 -4.31 80 Texas -2.70 -54.75 -4.44 ____________________________________________________ 81 Buffalo -3.19 -48.60 -4.48 82 Missouri -3.66 -56.72 -5.18 83 Akron -7.06 -11.01 -5.24 84 Maryland -4.56 -47.34 -5.32 85 Colorado St. -7.15 -15.74 -5.52 86 Connecticut -3.70 -72.44 -5.96 87 Kentucky -5.08 -61.83 -6.37 88 Troy -6.99 -37.40 -6.46 89 Ohio -6.15 -49.70 -6.50 90 Purdue -4.49 -76.89 -6.71 ____________________________________________________ 91 Arkansas St. -7.47 -49.43 -7.37 92 SMU -9.82 -29.42 -7.97 93 Wyoming -13.04 -11.68 -9.26 94 Wake Forest -9.25 -70.26 -9.56 95 South Carolina -7.48 -98.89 -9.76 96 Syracuse -5.10 -137.90 -10.06 97 Ball St. -8.89 -99.98 -10.75 98 Oregon St. -12.73 -71.62 -11.95 99 San Jose St. -13.14 -71.56 -12.22 100 Florida Intl. -9.17 -131.40 -12.46 _____________________________________________________ 101 Rutgers -11.67 -107.19 -12.96 103 Rice -15.26 -63.63 -13.24 104 Army -12.74 -104.26 -13.53 105 UNLV -12.34 -121.08 -14.07 106 Florida Atlantic -14.98 -93.63 -14.51 107 Nevada -13.28 -123.29 -14.80 108 LA Lafayette -18.52 -100.71 -17.21 109 Texas St. -16.54 -142.85 -17.92 110 UT-San Antonio -19.51 -106.27 -18.14 ________________________________________________________ 111 Kent St. -19.34 -112.95 -18.34 112 South Alabama -23.20 -70.26 -18.86 113 Georgia State -20.68 -109.78 -19.09 114 Colorado -19.85 -123.86 -19.21 115 Old Dominion -19.74 -144.45 -20.13 116 Idaho -21.08 -158.30 -21.69 117 Tulane -21.57 -161.52 -22.18 118 East. Michigan -22.93 -143.16 -22.20 119 Miami (OH) -24.07 -133.41 -22.49 120 New Mexico -20.42 -187.29 -22.66 _____________________________________________________ 121 North Texas -23.25 -150.17 -22.75 122 LA Monroe -23.19 -161.21 -23.24 123 Fresno St. -24.48 -184.11 -25.21 124 Hawaii -24.39 -188.29 -25.35 125 UNC-Charlotte -27.33 -155.68 -25.73 126 UCF -23.15 -236.07 -26.83 127 UTEP -29.14 -185.81 -28.40 128 New Mexico St. -29.38 -186.15 -28.57 129 Kansas -26.72 -234.52 -29.14 By Conference Rank Team PD YD Score AAC 14 Memphis 13.96 148.86 16.49 16 Houston 16.46 108.19 16.20 37 Navy 11.47 26.44 8.92 40 Cincinnati 5.58 93.63 8.24 49 Temple 9.79 -22.85 5.43 65 East Carolina 0.79 3.80 0.71 68 Tulsa -1.13 18.29 0.13 78 South Florida -0.13 -77.50 -3.83 86 Connecticut -3.70 -72.44 -5.96 92 SMU -9.82 -29.42 -7.97 117 Tulane -21.57 -161.52 -22.18 126 UCF -23.15 -236.07 -26.83 ACC 1 Clemson 29.15 271.48 32.54 31 Florida St. 11.15 63.32 10.49 32 North Carolina 12.04 44.44 10.17 34 N.C. State 8.09 85.38 9.51 38 Louisville 5.84 97.23 8.59 41 Georgia Tech 6.81 69.28 7.89 50 Pittsburgh 5.41 30.40 5.07 51 Duke 5.33 30.52 5.03 56 Virginia Tech 5.89 7.27 4.28 59 Miami (FL) 3.63 18.78 3.33 66 Boston Coll. -0.81 20.08 0.43 76 Virginia -3.68 -10.02 -2.93 94 Wake Forest -9.25 -70.26 -9.56 96 Syracuse -5.10 -137.90 -10.06 B1G 7 Ohio St. 21.97 136.13 21.22 15 Michigan 16.80 104.50 16.24 21 Wisconsin 14.04 113.80 14.85 22 Iowa 15.04 94.80 14.60 26 Michigan St. 13.36 70.35 12.30 42 Penn St. 9.54 25.88 7.61 46 Nebraska 6.07 48.38 6.38 48 Northwestern 6.58 27.92 5.74 67 Minnesota -3.02 46.50 0.23 70 Illinois 0.26 -5.02 -0.07 73 Indiana 0.32 -24.24 -0.96 84 Maryland -4.56 -47.34 -5.32 90 Purdue -4.49 -76.89 -6.71 101 Rutgers -11.67 -107.19 -12.96 B12-2 2 Baylor 28.45 247.51 30.92 4 Oklahoma 24.18 165.19 24.10 8 West Virginia 19.12 167.95 20.85 11 TCU 15.37 186.59 19.26 27 Oklahoma St. 13.82 47.66 11.51 29 Texas Tech 9.14 105.93 11.21 62 Iowa St. 0.70 41.57 2.48 75 Kansas St. 1.46 -69.79 -2.40 80 Texas -2.70 -54.75 -4.44 129 Kansas -26.72 -234.52 -29.14 CUSA 39 West. Kentucky 7.89 66.14 8.46 43 Louisiana Tech 6.58 66.20 7.58 61 Southern Miss 0.34 50.78 2.68 71 Marshall 2.22 -44.05 -0.64 74 Middle Tenn. St. -3.37 20.42 -1.26 100 Florida Intl. -9.17 -131.40 -12.46 103 Rice -15.26 -63.63 -13.24 106 Florida Atlantic -14.98 -93.63 -14.51 110 UT-San Antonio -19.51 -106.27 -18.14 115 Old Dominion -19.74 -144.45 -20.13 121 North Texas -23.25 -150.17 -22.75 125 UNC-Charlotte -27.33 -155.68 -25.73 127 UTEP -29.14 -185.81 -28.40 Indies 5 Notre Dame 21.92 173.71 23.00 24 BYU 12.12 100.50 12.93 104 Army -12.74 -104.26 -13.53 MAC 19 Bowling Green 12.11 147.79 15.21 25 Toledo 13.94 63.21 12.35 47 Cent. Michigan 5.83 46.13 6.11 58 W. Michigan 4.32 25.45 4.11 60 Northern Illinois 3.28 10.72 2.71 77 Massachusetts -2.62 -26.51 -3.02 81 Buffalo -3.19 -48.60 -4.48 83 Akron -7.06 -11.01 -5.24 89 Ohio -6.15 -49.70 -6.50 97 Ball St. -8.89 -99.98 -10.75 111 Kent St. -19.34 -112.95 -18.34 118 East. Michigan -22.93 -143.16 -22.20 119 Miami (OH) -24.07 -133.41 -22.49 MWC 20 Boise St. 12.49 140.04 15.09 44 Utah St. 8.00 27.59 6.66 55 Air Force 1.25 73.51 4.38 69 San Diego St. -0.67 11.41 0.11 85 Colorado St. -7.15 -15.74 -5.52 93 Wyoming -13.04 -11.68 -9.26 99 San Jose St. -13.14 -71.56 -12.22 105 UNLV -12.34 -121.08 -14.07 107 Nevada -13.28 -123.29 -14.80 120 New Mexico -20.42 -187.29 -22.66 123 Fresno St. -24.48 -184.11 -25.21 124 Hawaii -24.39 -188.29 -25.35 P12 9 USC 22.54 117.32 20.69 23 Stanford 15.56 73.69 13.93 30 Utah 14.66 28.43 11.15 33 Washington 14.48 3.53 9.82 35 California 9.59 59.76 9.28 45 UCLA 6.17 52.21 6.63 53 Arizona St. 3.25 53.82 4.76 54 Washington St. 1.95 68.84 4.62 63 Oregon 3.62 -4.08 2.22 79 Arizona -6.35 -1.65 -4.31 98 Oregon St. -12.73 -71.62 -11.95 114 Colorado -19.85 -123.86 -19.21 SBC 17 Appalachian State 14.78 120.41 15.66 64 Georgia Southern 0.65 20.80 1.44 88 Troy -6.99 -37.40 -6.46 91 Arkansas St. -7.47 -49.43 -7.37 108 LA Lafayette -18.52 -100.71 -17.21 109 Texas St. -16.54 -142.85 -17.92 112 South Alabama -23.20 -70.26 -18.86 113 Georgia State -20.68 -109.78 -19.09 116 Idaho -21.08 -158.30 -21.69 122 LA Monroe -23.19 -161.21 -23.24 128 New Mexico St. -29.38 -186.15 -28.57 SEC 3 Alabama 23.19 205.61 25.38 6 Mississippi 19.63 201.73 22.82 10 LSU 19.74 131.21 19.50 12 Tennessee 20.47 113.17 19.11 13 Florida 18.99 105.93 17.78 18 Mississippi St. 18.74 62.64 15.52 28 Texas A&M 12.27 68.66 11.50 36 Arkansas 7.03 89.48 9.01 52 Georgia 4.67 37.96 4.94 57 Vanderbilt 0.50 79.63 4.17 72 Auburn 0.98 -33.19 -0.95 82 Missouri -3.66 -56.72 -5.18 87 Kentucky -5.08 -61.83 -6.37 95 South Carolina -7.48 -98.89 -9.76

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

TCU Bye Week DUSHEE Rankings - Strength of Schedule

Since there was no TCU game to factor into this week's DUSHEE rankings, I thought it might be interesting to dive into DUSHEE's strength of schedule rankings, especially since SoS is a large factor in DUSHEE WTF team and TCU's next opponent West Virginia's inflated ranking. But first, the rankings have the Frogs holding par, remaining at 18th, despite their DUSHEE score dropping nearly a point during the bye week. The score dropped, in part, due to the continued decline of our prior opponents, as we've catalogued over the last few weeks, but it is also just the statistical phenomenon known as "regressing to the mean." If you look at any particular team's DUSHEE score, particularly those teams on either extreme -- the Top 25 and the Bottom 25 -- you'll see a general trend of those scores declining in absolute value over the course of the season. That has been no less true of Baylor, who has consistently remained #1 since the first ranking. In that week 4 ranking, Baylor started with a 54.53 DUSHEE score. They are now down to a 33.68. TCU's ranking is as high as it is because of yardage differential. TCU is currently ranked 28th in point differential (i.e., margin of victory) but 9th in yardage differential. I'd argue that this indicates TCU has been dominating their opponents more than the score shows, although that is certainly up for debate. Clemson darn near caught Baylor this week with that destruction and lopping-off of Al Golden's head. They bucked the regressive trend and jumped 5 points in their DUSHEE score. Alabama dropped from 2 to 6, Utah plummeted from 11 to 23, and Tech dropped out of the top 25, from 21 to 34. Top and bottom performances Top 3: 62.88 Clemson (58-567) @ Miami-Fl (0-146) 45.43 Oklahoma (63-617) vs. Texas Tech (27-436) 41.97 San Diego St. (48-429) vs. Utah St. (14-239) Bottom 3: -50.44 New Mexico St. (7-392) vs. Troy (52-482) -43.82 Louisiana-Monroe (13-243) @ Idaho (27-489) -42.83 Miami-Fl (0-146) vs. Clemson (58-567) Miami fell from 48th to 70th. New Mexico State claimed the "Worst FBS Team in America" from cross-border rival UTEP after getting destroyed by 97th ranked Troy. And Utah State gets the rare distinction of being in the Top 3 list on back-to-back weeks, last week as a top performer in beating Boise, this week as a victim of San Diego State's top performance. Strength of Schedule The Strength of Schedule is calculated simply, by averaging the DUSHEE scores of that team's opponents for the season. Here are the DUSHEE calculated strengths of schedule for the Top 25: Rank Team SOS SOS Rank 1 Baylor -2.09 82 2 Clemson 11.75 4 3 Mississippi 8.73 14 4 West Virginia 13.18 3 5 Oklahoma 6.37 23 6 Alabama 7.93 16 7 Notre Dame 10.10 8 8 USC 4.61 32 9 Ohio St. -3.37 96 10 LSU -0.22 65 11 Michigan 2.03 46 12 Appalachian State -6.83 111 13 Tennessee 15.99 1 14 Memphis 1.83 49 15 Iowa 0.99 54 16 Stanford 1.58 50 17 Mississippi St. 3.60 37 18 TCU -0.80 72 19 Florida 3.91 34 20 Houston -10.06 121 21 Boise St. -2.92 88 22 Wisconsin -2.24 83 23 Utah 4.46 33 24 Bowling Green -1.27 75 25 Oklahoma St. -2.56 85 The top 25 in SOS overall are: Tenn 15.99 1 Mary 13.66 2 WVU 13.18 3 Clem 11.75 4 L'ville 11.60 5 Wash 11.03 6 Kan 10.75 7 ND 10.10 8 ISU 9.83 9 Tex 9.69 10 GaTech 9.60 11 BC 9.49 12 Uva 9.26 13 Miss 8.73 14 Vandy 7.95 15 Bama 7.93 16 A&M 7.87 17 Nwstern 7.41 18 BYU 7.32 19 KSU 7.21 20 Aub 6.77 21 MiaFl 6.60 22 OU 6.37 23 Ark 6.35 24 SMU 6.09 25 One thing that you may note, high strengths of schedule often reside with teams that are in the middle-to-bottom echelon of their conference. There is an intuitive reason for that; while the top teams get to play all (or most) of the bad teams in their conference, they don't have to play themselves, giving them an unbalanced schedule of the mediocre or bad teams relative to the good or great teams. That works the other way too. The bad teams don't have themselves on their schedule to drag their SoS down, but they have all or most of the good-to-great teams. So note that you don't see Baylor, TCU, or Oklahoma State in the list of hardest Big XII-II schedules (although you do see OU!) but you do see West Virginia, Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas State. You can also note that several of the teams that you see in the Top 25 that have 3 or more losses but are still in the DUSHEE top 25 (e.g., West Virginia, Tennessee) have had among the most difficult schedules. For the most part, those teams have lost to other highly ranked teams in close, competitive games. From a DUSHEE perspective, that is evidence that those teams are also really good teams that should be highly ranked, even if they get zeros when looking at the win-loss binary. If you'll pardon the awkward analogy, the AP poll is like the American Electoral College way of determining presidents. If a candidate is really competitive in big, populated states, but winds up a few votes short, he/she gets no credit for how well he/she did in that state. This is kinda the way college football poll voters treat wins and losses. A really competitive, 1-point loss to a really good team is probably going to drop you below all other (Power 5) teams with fewer losses, even if many of those teams with fewer losses wouldn't have a good chance of getting the same result against that same opponent. That is the fallacy of the primacy of wins and losses. Everyone who watched college football last year knew that Florida State wasn't one of the top 4 teams. But they were the only undefeated one. So the lesson here is that West Virginia might just be a pretty damn good team. In fact, DUSHEE would install them as touchdown favorites over the Frogs. Vegas totally does not agree, with TCU as 14-point favorites. I hope Vegas is right. Conference Strength SEC 10.06 B12 9.26 ACC 6.20 B10 5.38 P12 4.59 AAC -1.42 MAC -4.83 MWC -9.53 CUSA -11.71 SBC -14.21 Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Baylor 30.80 269.17 33.68 2 Clemson 30.45 266.24 33.30 3 Mississippi 23.18 234.13 26.89 4 West Virginia 24.81 211.19 26.85 5 Oklahoma 25.60 167.35 25.24 6 Alabama 23.01 201.35 25.17 7 Notre Dame 23.03 168.19 23.57 8 USC 23.84 118.60 21.68 9 Ohio St. 22.10 137.47 21.44 10 LSU 20.53 134.85 20.28 __________________________________________ 11 Michigan 19.68 140.04 19.96 12 Appalachian State 18.36 146.01 19.37 13 Tennessee 19.27 111.17 18.27 14 Memphis 16.04 151.38 18.09 15 Iowa 16.71 122.74 17.14 16 Stanford 17.47 103.52 16.70 17 Mississippi St. 19.17 59.61 15.69 18 TCU 11.83 150.89 15.26 19 Florida 17.07 79.37 15.26 20 Houston 14.64 103.52 14.81 ______________________________________________ 21 Boise St. 11.34 146.09 14.69 22 Wisconsin 13.13 114.01 14.32 23 Utah 17.48 45.79 13.89 24 Bowling Green 10.62 131.22 13.49 25 Oklahoma St. 14.75 64.51 12.99 26 BYU 11.74 104.31 12.92 27 Texas A&M 14.21 70.36 12.91 28 Georgia Tech 12.10 95.83 12.75 29 Louisville 9.83 125.61 12.69 30 UCLA 10.00 104.20 11.75 _____________________________________________ 31 Michigan St. 11.85 75.35 11.58 32 Toledo 12.68 52.94 11.04 33 North Carolina 12.83 43.99 10.70 34 Texas Tech 8.77 98.50 10.66 35 N.C. State 7.67 105.69 10.27 36 Florida St. 10.54 61.40 10.03 37 Arkansas 7.05 90.24 9.11 38 West. Kentucky 7.84 71.64 8.73 39 California 8.44 56.84 8.40 40 Georgia 6.96 62.22 7.68 ____________________________________________ 41 Cent. Michigan 6.29 63.91 7.31 42 Nebraska 7.61 45.62 7.30 43 Duke 7.92 40.28 7.24 44 Northwestern 7.70 37.78 6.98 45 Vanderbilt 2.82 103.96 6.96 46 Louisiana Tech 5.72 58.32 6.66 47 Navy 9.93 -5.45 6.35 48 Illinois 6.21 30.36 5.63 49 Temple 9.08 -18.37 5.16 50 Washington 8.86 -15.69 5.14 ____________________________________________ 51 Virginia Tech 6.30 15.14 4.94 52 Washington St. 2.27 62.94 4.59 53 Penn St. 6.49 2.65 4.45 54 Pittsburgh 4.53 27.45 4.36 55 Cincinnati 1.38 66.96 4.19 56 Arizona St. 4.83 16.06 4.01 57 East Carolina 3.54 13.60 3.03 58 Northern Illinois 3.13 11.69 2.66 59 Boston Coll. 1.75 30.02 2.63 60 Utah St. 4.71 -13.86 2.46 ______________________________________________ 61 Oregon 2.12 17.33 2.26 62 W. Michigan 1.59 23.29 2.20 63 Southern Miss -0.31 42.95 1.89 64 Arizona -0.12 28.82 1.33 65 Iowa St. -1.35 31.71 0.65 66 Middle Tenn. St. -1.77 36.83 0.62 67 Air Force -3.05 44.47 0.14 68 Texas 1.95 -27.85 -0.06 69 Massachusetts 0.93 -18.52 -0.29 70 Miami (FL) -0.37 -4.94 -0.49 ____________________________________________ 71 Tulsa -1.83 13.34 -0.57 72 Georgia Southern -0.80 -2.73 -0.67 73 Indiana 0.32 -24.49 -0.98 74 Auburn 0.84 -40.76 -1.43 75 San Diego St. -3.74 4.57 -2.27 76 Virginia -4.26 -4.55 -3.06 77 Kentucky -1.94 -45.95 -3.54 78 Buffalo -1.42 -53.34 -3.55 79 Kansas St. 0.27 -83.33 -3.89 80 Minnesota -6.03 1.50 -3.94 ___________________________________________ 81 Marshall 0.86 -96.49 -4.14 82 Missouri -2.62 -49.22 -4.15 83 South Florida -0.84 -75.45 -4.25 84 Maryland -4.52 -47.26 -5.32 85 Akron -7.86 -28.82 -6.65 86 Wyoming -11.75 14.98 -7.10 87 Colorado St. -8.04 -43.75 -7.50 88 SMU -10.08 -30.27 -8.20 89 South Carolina -6.21 -85.70 -8.32 90 Arkansas St. -9.75 -50.42 -8.96 ____________________________________________ 91 Wake Forest -8.53 -67.78 -9.00 92 Ohio -8.28 -73.82 -9.13 93 Syracuse -4.82 -129.21 -9.52 94 Connecticut -7.11 -100.55 -9.65 95 Florida Intl. -6.91 -122.20 -10.57 96 Rutgers -9.69 -103.86 -11.53 97 Troy -12.09 -71.82 -11.57 98 Purdue -10.12 -102.57 -11.76 99 Oregon St. -12.73 -68.77 -11.84 100 Ball St. -10.88 -107.55 -12.51 ______________________________________________ 101 Nevada -11.36 -116.38 -13.26 103 San Jose St. -14.58 -79.97 -13.63 104 Rice -16.05 -61.96 -13.73 105 UNLV -12.06 -121.44 -13.97 106 Army -13.54 -110.51 -14.43 107 LA Lafayette -18.77 -60.34 -15.46 108 UT-San Antonio -17.04 -111.44 -16.80 109 Texas St. -18.33 -125.19 -18.33 110 South Alabama -23.70 -62.11 -18.83 _____________________________________________- 111 Kent St. -19.39 -122.78 -18.92 112 Georgia State -22.17 -106.75 -19.99 113 Florida Atlantic -20.97 -126.38 -20.15 114 Old Dominion -19.89 -141.66 -20.18 115 East. Michigan -22.17 -146.20 -21.92 116 Tulane -21.86 -152.13 -22.01 117 Idaho -20.96 -165.76 -22.07 118 Colorado -21.70 -171.43 -22.84 119 New Mexico -20.57 -191.14 -23.05 120 Hawaii -21.86 -179.31 -23.33 _____________________________________________ 121 UCF -20.29 -213.54 -23.95 122 North Texas -27.39 -157.88 -25.97 123 UNC-Charlotte -30.36 -125.00 -26.35 124 LA Monroe -24.71 -202.63 -26.37 125 Miami (OH) -29.07 -146.35 -26.53 126 Fresno St. -26.74 -199.77 -27.59 127 Kansas -26.46 -228.29 -28.79 128 UTEP -32.78 -211.72 -32.19 128 New Mexico St. -33.83 -221.42 -33.37 Conference Standings Rank Team PD YD Score AAC 14 Memphis 16.04 151.38 18.09 20 Houston 14.64 103.52 14.81 47 Navy 9.93 -5.45 6.35 49 Temple 9.08 -18.37 5.16 55 Cincinnati 1.38 66.96 4.19 57 East Carolina 3.54 13.60 3.03 71 Tulsa -1.83 13.34 -0.57 83 South Florida -0.84 -75.45 -4.25 88 SMU -10.08 -30.27 -8.20 94 Connecticut -7.11 -100.55 -9.65 116 Tulane -21.86 -152.13 -22.01 121 UCF -20.29 -213.54 -23.95 ACC 2 Clemson 30.45 266.24 33.30 28 Georgia Tech 12.10 95.83 12.75 29 Louisville 9.83 125.61 12.69 33 North Carolina 12.83 43.99 10.70 35 N.C. State 7.67 105.69 10.27 36 Florida St. 10.54 61.40 10.03 43 Duke 7.92 40.28 7.24 51 Virginia Tech 6.30 15.14 4.94 54 Pittsburgh 4.53 27.45 4.36 59 Boston Coll. 1.75 30.02 2.63 70 Miami (FL) -0.37 -4.94 -0.49 76 Virginia -4.26 -4.55 -3.06 91 Wake Forest -8.53 -67.78 -9.00 93 Syracuse -4.82 -129.21 -9.52 B1G 9 Ohio St. 22.10 137.47 21.44 11 Michigan 19.68 140.04 19.96 15 Iowa 16.71 122.74 17.14 22 Wisconsin 13.13 114.01 14.32 31 Michigan St. 11.85 75.35 11.58 42 Nebraska 7.61 45.62 7.30 44 Northwestern 7.70 37.78 6.98 48 Illinois 6.21 30.36 5.63 53 Penn St. 6.49 2.65 4.45 73 Indiana 0.32 -24.49 -0.98 80 Minnesota -6.03 1.50 -3.94 84 Maryland -4.52 -47.26 -5.32 96 Rutgers -9.69 -103.86 -11.53 98 Purdue -10.12 -102.57 -11.76 BXII-II 1 Baylor 30.80 269.17 33.68 4 West Virginia 24.81 211.19 26.85 5 Oklahoma 25.60 167.35 25.24 18 TCU 11.83 150.89 15.26 25 Oklahoma St. 14.75 64.51 12.99 34 Texas Tech 8.77 98.50 10.66 65 Iowa St. -1.35 31.71 0.65 68 Texas 1.95 -27.85 -0.06 79 Kansas St. 0.27 -83.33 -3.89 127 Kansas -26.46 -228.29 -28.79 CUSA 38 West. Kentucky 7.84 71.64 8.73 46 Louisiana Tech 5.72 58.32 6.66 63 Southern Miss -0.31 42.95 1.89 66 Middle Tenn. St. -1.77 36.83 0.62 81 Marshall 0.86 -96.49 -4.14 95 Florida Intl. -6.91 -122.20 -10.57 104 Rice -16.05 -61.96 -13.73 108 UT-San Antonio -17.04 -111.44 -16.80 113 Florida Atlantic -20.97 -126.38 -20.15 114 Old Dominion -19.89 -141.66 -20.18 122 North Texas -27.39 -157.88 -25.97 123 UNC-Charlotte -30.36 -125.00 -26.35 128 UTEP -32.78 -211.72 -32.19 Indies 7 Notre Dame 23.03 168.19 23.57 26 BYU 11.74 104.31 12.92 106 Army -13.54 -110.51 -14.43 MAC 24 Bowling Green 10.62 131.22 13.49 32 Toledo 12.68 52.94 11.04 41 Cent. Michigan 6.29 63.91 7.31 58 Northern Illinois 3.13 11.69 2.66 62 W. Michigan 1.59 23.29 2.20 69 Massachusetts 0.93 -18.52 -0.29 78 Buffalo -1.42 -53.34 -3.55 85 Akron -7.86 -28.82 -6.65 92 Ohio -8.28 -73.82 -9.13 100 Ball St. -10.88 -107.55 -12.51 111 Kent St. -19.39 -122.78 -18.92 115 East. Michigan -22.17 -146.20 -21.92 125 Miami (OH) -29.07 -146.35 -26.53 MWC 21 Boise St. 11.34 146.09 14.69 60 Utah St. 4.71 -13.86 2.46 67 Air Force -3.05 44.47 0.14 75 San Diego St. -3.74 4.57 -2.27 86 Wyoming -11.75 14.98 -7.10 87 Colorado St. -8.04 -43.75 -7.50 101 Nevada -11.36 -116.38 -13.26 103 San Jose St. -14.58 -79.97 -13.63 105 UNLV -12.06 -121.44 -13.97 119 New Mexico -20.57 -191.14 -23.05 120 Hawaii -21.86 -179.31 -23.33 126 Fresno St. -26.74 -199.77 -27.59 P12 8 USC 23.84 118.60 21.68 16 Stanford 17.47 103.52 16.70 23 Utah 17.48 45.79 13.89 30 UCLA 10.00 104.20 11.75 39 California 8.44 56.84 8.40 50 Washington 8.86 -15.69 5.14 52 Washington St. 2.27 62.94 4.59 56 Arizona St. 4.83 16.06 4.01 61 Oregon 2.12 17.33 2.26 64 Arizona -0.12 28.82 1.33 99 Oregon St. -12.73 -68.77 -11.84 118 Colorado -21.70 -171.43 -22.84 SBC 12 Appalachian State 18.36 146.01 19.37 72 Georgia Southern -0.80 -2.73 -0.67 90 Arkansas St. -9.75 -50.42 -8.96 97 Troy -12.09 -71.82 -11.57 107 LA Lafayette -18.77 -60.34 -15.46 109 Texas St. -18.33 -125.19 -18.33 110 South Alabama -23.70 -62.11 -18.83 112 Georgia State -22.17 -106.75 -19.99 117 Idaho -20.96 -165.76 -22.07 124 LA Monroe -24.71 -202.63 -26.37 128 New Mexico St. -33.83 -221.42 -33.37 SEC 3 Mississippi 23.18 234.13 26.89 6 Alabama 23.01 201.35 25.17 10 LSU 20.53 134.85 20.28 13 Tennessee 19.27 111.17 18.27 17 Mississippi St. 19.17 59.61 15.69 19 Florida 17.07 79.37 15.26 27 Texas A&M 14.21 70.36 12.91 37 Arkansas 7.05 90.24 9.11 40 Georgia 6.96 62.22 7.68 45 Vanderbilt 2.82 103.96 6.96 74 Auburn 0.84 -40.76 -1.43 77 Kentucky -1.94 -45.95 -3.54 82 Missouri -2.62 -49.22 -4.15 89 South Carolina -6.21 -85.70 -8.32

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE Rankings

Once again, the Frogs were crushed by the weak performances of its prior opponents. Minnesota was blown out at home by Nebraska, Texas Tech struggled to beat an awful Kansas team, and most significantly, the team that took us to the brink last week was beat by 55 at home by Oklahoma. The last one, in particular, forced the dive that the Frogs took in DUSHEE this week, as you can see in the comparison of TCU's week-by-week DUSHEE scores as they stood after last week's games compared to this week: After week 6: Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU PD: 8.00 3.00 19.75 | 39.40 17.33 YD: 186.00 101.75 282.75 | 197.00 143.67 Score: 14.81 7.18 27.57 | 36.30 18.87 After week 7: Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU ISU PD: 3.83 3.00 18.40 | 39.40 1.00 16.25 YD: 157.33 101.75 276.60 | 197.00 32.75 148.25 Score: 10.40 7.07 26.05 | 36.08 2.30 18.22 DUSHEE's evaluation of the Minnesota game fell by 4.5 points, the Tech game dropped by 1.5 points ... but that Kansas State game went from a solid 18.9 points better than average performance to a 2.3 -- Kansas State's performance cost the Frogs 16.6 points in their DUSHEE score. TCU's overall DUSHEE score fell from 20.95 to 16.69, dropping them from 9th to 18th in this week's poll. The drop should be temporary, as the Frogs have yet to play OU or KU and it seems unlikely that Kansas State will finish out the season playing as badly as they did against Oklahoma. That game, I think, was an anomaly that has disproportionately affected the Frogs (and all of K-State's other opponents so far this year) this week. Assuming the Frogs blow out Kansas at home and play competitively against the rest of their tough schedule (win or lose), I suspect 18 will be the lowest the Frogs see this year. Next Opponent: West Virginia Speaking of statistical anomalies, TCU's next opponent is becoming this year's DUSHEE WTF team; the 3-3 Mountaineers (and 2-3 in games DUSHEE looks at) are ranked 4th in this week's DUSHEE poll. Why? WVU's lofty ranking is almost exclusively due to their week 1 44-0 blowout of Georgia Southern, as you can see in their week-to-week scores: WVU: Opp: GaSo Mary OU | OkSt Bay PD: 69.00 26.00 1.40 | 10.75 19.75 YD: 514.25 117.50 126.40 | 204.25 118.25 Score: 71.63 23.19 7.23 | 17.34 19.06 Recall that Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt last year (though they were not allowed to represent the conference as champion in a bowl in their first year as FBS) and is currently sitting at 5-1, having blown out all of their other (admittedly weak, except for Western Michigan) opponents. Since Ga.So. has blown out everyone else they've played, WVU's point and yardage differentials for that game are sky high. If Georgia Southern plays a few more competitive games during the second half (and DUSHEE would have the Eagles a sizeable underdog to Appalachian State), WVU's score against them will go down. Plus, at this point in the season, the Ga. So. game is 20% of WVU's DUSHEE score. It will only account for 8% by season's end. WVU's high ranking is a case study in the danger of low sample sizes. WVU has also benefitted by not getting blown out by Baylor as badly as Baylor has blown out everybody else. Take out the Georgia Southern game and WVU's DUSHEE score is almost exactly the same as TCU's. Conference Strength This week, the SEC finally eeked past the Big XII-II to claim the top conference spot, after closing the gap every week prior. A big gap still exists between the SEC and B12 and the rest of the "Power 5" and DUSHEE, for the second year in a row, is extremely underwhelmed by the Pac 12, ranking them at the bottom. SEC 11.05 B12 10.46 ACC 6.58 B10 5.83 P12 5.49 AAC -1.80 MAC -5.73 MWC -10.49 CUSA -12.87 SBC -16.38 Week 7 Best and Worst Performances This is the first week this year where both sides of the same game appear, with OU's performance earning the most DUSHEE points and the Kansas State performance earning the second lowest. Top 3: 60.99 Oklahoma (55-568) vs. Kansas St. (0-111) 44.09 Baylor (62-693) vs. WVU (38-471) 43.72 Utah St. (56-334) vs. Boise (26-333) Bottom 3: -49.62 Ohio (14-354) vs. Western Michigan (49-567) -44.69 Kansas State (0-111) vs. Oklahoma (55-568) -40.24 UNLV (28-299) vs. Fresno (31-410) Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Baylor 38.38 324.61 41.76 2 Alabama 26.20 236.38 29.25 3 Clemson 24.40 237.29 28.09 4 West Virginia 25.38 216.13 27.69 5 Mississippi 21.92 218.37 25.49 6 Notre Dame 21.87 170.42 23.07 7 Oklahoma 22.83 153.22 22.85 8 USC 21.29 120.08 20.18 9 Michigan 19.54 127.72 19.39 10 Ohio St. 19.00 120.79 18.69 ____________________________________________ 11 Utah 23.19 57.70 18.34 12 Iowa 17.63 129.08 18.18 13 Tennessee 18.81 106.91 17.87 14 LSU 16.33 127.01 17.22 15 Florida 19.15 85.51 17.03 16 Boise St. 13.99 152.43 16.92 17 Stanford 18.10 95.85 16.84 18 TCU 13.65 152.28 16.69 19 Texas A&M 17.13 105.09 16.66 20 Appalachian State 14.93 114.46 15.66 ______________________________________________ 21 Texas Tech 13.26 130.28 15.33 22 North Carolina 17.69 65.95 15.08 23 Memphis 12.45 124.10 14.48 24 Navy 15.80 69.36 13.99 25 Wisconsin 11.70 112.64 13.41 26 Florida St. 12.82 94.57 13.26 27 BYU 12.09 103.00 13.19 28 Arkansas 9.23 127.11 12.49 29 Mississippi St. 15.12 44.75 12.31 30 California 12.46 78.15 12.20 ______________________________________________ 31 Louisville 11.20 76.64 11.29 32 Toledo 13.43 43.24 11.11 33 Utah St. 14.58 27.72 11.10 34 Oklahoma St. 13.16 45.18 11.02 35 Washington 13.74 33.85 10.85 36 Nebraska 11.10 61.36 10.46 37 West. Kentucky 10.16 63.62 9.95 38 UCLA 8.12 88.13 9.81 39 Georgia Tech 9.33 70.74 9.75 40 Michigan St. 9.68 58.73 9.38 _________________________________________________ 41 Houston 9.32 62.31 9.32 42 Penn St. 9.95 48.66 9.06 43 Bowling Green 5.99 94.77 8.71 44 Vanderbilt 4.80 110.03 8.68 45 Illinois 9.32 42.16 8.31 46 Duke 8.38 53.97 8.28 47 Georgia 6.89 65.75 7.87 48 Miami (FL) 8.62 41.25 7.80 49 Northwestern 7.74 49.83 7.64 50 Boston Coll. 3.03 99.59 6.98 _____________________________________________ 51 N.C. State 5.47 65.58 6.91 52 Pittsburgh 5.55 43.26 5.86 53 Temple 9.53 -14.47 5.63 54 Cent. Michigan 5.06 43.94 5.57 55 Arizona St. 6.17 29.10 5.56 56 Virginia Tech 7.19 8.44 5.21 57 Washington St. 3.88 47.29 4.94 58 Middle Tenn. St. 3.66 45.47 4.71 59 W. Michigan 4.41 31.64 4.51 60 Louisiana Tech 2.17 59.18 4.40 ____________________________________________ 61 Indiana 4.71 3.45 3.31 62 Oregon 2.91 18.43 2.86 63 East Carolina 3.26 -0.19 2.16 64 Cincinnati -0.74 31.76 1.09 65 Northern Illinois 0.47 1.21 0.37 66 Tulsa -1.60 22.16 0.04 67 Massachusetts -0.73 9.11 -0.04 68 Arizona -2.71 34.04 -0.11 69 Kentucky 1.23 -24.86 -0.42 70 Missouri 0.01 -24.50 -1.21 _____________________________________________ 71 Kansas St. 2.41 -61.16 -1.44 72 Marshall 4.94 -99.98 -1.69 73 Air Force -5.44 37.95 -1.74 74 Texas -0.32 -37.42 -2.08 75 Iowa St. -3.46 2.75 -2.17 76 Auburn 1.83 -71.20 -2.33 77 Minnesota -4.64 8.64 -2.66 78 Southern Miss -5.70 3.39 -3.63 79 Georgia Southern -4.14 -22.63 -3.89 80 South Florida -2.22 -62.96 -4.62 _____________________________________________ 81 Virginia -6.79 -15.13 -5.28 82 Connecticut -4.02 -52.38 -5.29 83 South Carolina -4.16 -69.85 -6.26 84 SMU -7.05 -38.06 -6.60 85 Akron -8.07 -39.51 -7.35 86 Colorado St. -8.31 -45.54 -7.81 87 Wake Forest -8.63 -52.50 -8.37 88 Wyoming -14.12 10.08 -8.91 89 Buffalo -8.94 -64.65 -9.18 90 Rutgers -6.05 -105.30 -9.28 _____________________________________________ 91 San Diego St. -12.30 -33.83 -9.89 92 Ohio -6.94 -109.29 -10.08 93 Army -9.50 -85.90 -10.61 94 Maryland -8.95 -96.80 -10.79 95 Florida Intl. -9.53 -107.13 -11.69 96 Oregon St. -12.02 -85.18 -12.26 97 Arkansas St. -13.40 -69.43 -12.39 98 Nevada -11.32 -97.69 -12.41 99 Syracuse -7.95 -148.55 -12.70 100 Purdue -11.59 -115.87 -13.50 _______________________________________________ 101 Ball St. -12.26 -111.24 -13.71 103 Kent St. -16.43 -94.49 -15.66 104 Rice -18.87 -71.38 -16.14 105 UNLV -14.10 -138.93 -16.32 106 Florida Atlantic -17.82 -104.12 -17.07 107 LA Lafayette -21.38 -76.72 -18.08 108 South Alabama -24.15 -60.27 -19.11 109 Troy -21.44 -99.32 -19.24 110 Georgia State -21.53 -106.81 -19.68 _______________________________________________ 111 San Jose St. -20.43 -127.73 -19.98 112 UT-San Antonio -20.83 -125.62 -20.15 113 Old Dominion -17.95 -170.62 -20.47 114 LA Monroe -20.71 -143.06 -20.94 115 East. Michigan -22.72 -145.34 -22.39 116 Colorado -23.20 -157.53 -23.32 117 New Mexico -20.97 -192.87 -23.59 118 Texas St. -25.34 -149.21 -24.33 119 UCF -20.29 -229.90 -24.98 120 Kansas -22.34 -204.11 -25.06 ______________________________________________ 121 Hawaii -24.44 -192.53 -25.89 122 UNC-Charlotte -29.18 -129.47 -25.90 123 Miami (OH) -28.54 -146.36 -26.32 124 Idaho -24.23 -207.35 -26.49 125 Tulane -24.81 -205.28 -26.77 126 Fresno St. -25.86 -204.26 -27.42 127 North Texas -32.89 -183.30 -31.06 128 New Mexico St. -30.08 -233.61 -31.69 128 UTEP -39.37 -246.95 -38.55 By Conference: Rank Team PD YD Score AAC 23 Memphis 12.45 124.10 14.48 24 Navy 15.80 69.36 13.99 41 Houston 9.32 62.31 9.32 53 Temple 9.53 -14.47 5.63 63 East Carolina 3.26 -0.19 2.16 64 Cincinnati -0.74 31.76 1.09 66 Tulsa -1.60 22.16 0.04 80 South Florida -2.22 -62.96 -4.62 82 Connecticut -4.02 -52.38 -5.29 84 SMU -7.05 -38.06 -6.60 119 UCF -20.29 -229.90 -24.98 125 Tulane -24.81 -205.28 -26.77 ACC 3 Clemson 24.40 237.29 28.09 22 North Carolina 17.69 65.95 15.08 26 Florida St. 12.82 94.57 13.26 31 Louisville 11.20 76.64 11.29 39 Georgia Tech 9.33 70.74 9.75 46 Duke 8.38 53.97 8.28 48 Miami (FL) 8.62 41.25 7.80 50 Boston Coll. 3.03 99.59 6.98 51 N.C. State 5.47 65.58 6.91 52 Pittsburgh 5.55 43.26 5.86 56 Virginia Tech 7.19 8.44 5.21 81 Virginia -6.79 -15.13 -5.28 87 Wake Forest -8.63 -52.50 -8.37 99 Syracuse -7.95 -148.55 -12.70 B1G 9 Michigan 19.54 127.72 19.39 10 Ohio St. 19.00 120.79 18.69 12 Iowa 17.63 129.08 18.18 25 Wisconsin 11.70 112.64 13.41 36 Nebraska 11.10 61.36 10.46 40 Michigan St. 9.68 58.73 9.38 42 Penn St. 9.95 48.66 9.06 45 Illinois 9.32 42.16 8.31 49 Northwestern 7.74 49.83 7.64 61 Indiana 4.71 3.45 3.31 77 Minnesota -4.64 8.64 -2.66 90 Rutgers -6.05 -105.30 -9.28 94 Maryland -8.95 -96.80 -10.79 100 Purdue -11.59 -115.87 -13.50 BXII-II 1 Baylor 38.38 324.61 41.76 4 West Virginia 25.38 216.13 27.69 7 Oklahoma 22.83 153.22 22.85 18 TCU 13.65 152.28 16.69 21 Texas Tech 13.26 130.28 15.33 34 Oklahoma St. 13.16 45.18 11.02 71 Kansas St. 2.41 -61.16 -1.44 74 Texas -0.32 -37.42 -2.08 75 Iowa St. -3.46 2.75 -2.17 120 Kansas -22.34 -204.11 -25.06 CUSA 37 West. Kentucky 10.16 63.62 9.95 58 Middle Tenn. St. 3.66 45.47 4.71 60 Louisiana Tech 2.17 59.18 4.40 72 Marshall 4.94 -99.98 -1.69 78 Southern Miss -5.70 3.39 -3.63 95 Florida Intl. -9.53 -107.13 -11.69 104 Rice -18.87 -71.38 -16.14 106 Florida Atlantic -17.82 -104.12 -17.07 112 UT-San Antonio -20.83 -125.62 -20.15 113 Old Dominion -17.95 -170.62 -20.47 122 UNC-Charlotte -29.18 -129.47 -25.90 127 North Texas -32.89 -183.30 -31.06 128 UTEP -39.37 -246.95 -38.55 Indies 6 Notre Dame 21.87 170.42 23.07 27 BYU 12.09 103.00 13.19 93 Army -9.50 -85.90 -10.61 MAC 32 Toledo 13.43 43.24 11.11 43 Bowling Green 5.99 94.77 8.71 54 Cent. Michigan 5.06 43.94 5.57 59 W. Michigan 4.41 31.64 4.51 65 Northern Illinois 0.47 1.21 0.37 67 Massachusetts -0.73 9.11 -0.04 85 Akron -8.07 -39.51 -7.35 89 Buffalo -8.94 -64.65 -9.18 92 Ohio -6.94 -109.29 -10.08 101 Ball St. -12.26 -111.24 -13.71 103 Kent St. -16.43 -94.49 -15.66 115 East. Michigan -22.72 -145.34 -22.39 123 Miami (OH) -28.54 -146.36 -26.32 MWC 16 Boise St. 13.99 152.43 16.92 33 Utah St. 14.58 27.72 11.10 73 Air Force -5.44 37.95 -1.74 86 Colorado St. -8.31 -45.54 -7.81 88 Wyoming -14.12 10.08 -8.91 91 San Diego St. -12.30 -33.83 -9.89 98 Nevada -11.32 -97.69 -12.41 105 UNLV -14.10 -138.93 -16.32 111 San Jose St. -20.43 -127.73 -19.98 117 New Mexico -20.97 -192.87 -23.59 121 Hawaii -24.44 -192.53 -25.89 126 Fresno St. -25.86 -204.26 -27.42 P12 8 USC 21.29 120.08 20.18 11 Utah 23.19 57.70 18.34 17 Stanford 18.10 95.85 16.84 30 California 12.46 78.15 12.20 35 Washington 13.74 33.85 10.85 38 UCLA 8.12 88.13 9.81 55 Arizona St. 6.17 29.10 5.56 57 Washington St. 3.88 47.29 4.94 62 Oregon 2.91 18.43 2.86 68 Arizona -2.71 34.04 -0.11 96 Oregon St. -12.02 -85.18 -12.26 116 Colorado -23.20 -157.53 -23.32 SBC 20 Appalachian State 14.93 114.46 15.66 79 Georgia Southern -4.14 -22.63 -3.89 97 Arkansas St. -13.40 -69.43 -12.39 107 LA Lafayette -21.38 -76.72 -18.08 108 South Alabama -24.15 -60.27 -19.11 109 Troy -21.44 -99.32 -19.24 110 Georgia State -21.53 -106.81 -19.68 114 LA Monroe -20.71 -143.06 -20.94 118 Texas St. -25.34 -149.21 -24.33 124 Idaho -24.23 -207.35 -26.49 128 New Mexico St. -30.08 -233.61 -31.69 SEC 2 Alabama 26.20 236.38 29.25 5 Mississippi 21.92 218.37 25.49 13 Tennessee 18.81 106.91 17.87 14 LSU 16.33 127.01 17.22 15 Florida 19.15 85.51 17.03 19 Texas A&M 17.13 105.09 16.66 28 Arkansas 9.23 127.11 12.49 29 Mississippi St. 15.12 44.75 12.31 44 Vanderbilt 4.80 110.03 8.68 47 Georgia 6.89 65.75 7.87 69 Kentucky 1.23 -24.86 -0.42 70 Missouri 0.01 -24.50 -1.21 76 Auburn 1.83 -71.20 -2.33 83 South Carolina -4.16 -69.85 -6.26

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE Rankings

The Frogs move back up to 9th in this week's rankings. Some of you may wonder, "What are you smoking, DUSHEE? We blow out Texas and drop 7 spots and then eek past Kansas State and go back up?" A look at the numbers reveals that a number of factors are at play. First, teams that were above the Frogs dropped, namely Oklahoma and USC. Oklahoma's loss to Texas dropped their DUSHEE score 14 points, meaning they are evaluated to be two touchdowns worse this week than they were evaluated to be last week. Second, DUSHEE views Kansas State right now as a solid top 30-ish team where Texas, even after the OU win, is ranked 77th (up from 86th). So a close win against Kansas State is worth more than a similar win against Texas would be. Finally, as we discussed last week, what TCU's prior opponents did this week had a significant impact on their rankings. Minnesota beat a bad Purdue team badly, Tech beat a bad Iowa State team badly, and (of course) we got a big boost from Texas beating Oklahoma. Here is what TCU's game-by-game DUSHEE score looks like this week compared to last week: After week 6: Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex KSU PD: 8.00 3.00 19.75 | 39.40 17.33 YD: 186.00 101.75 282.75 | 197.00 143.67 Score:: 14.81 7.18 27.57 | 36.30 18.87 After week 5: Opp: Minn SMU Ttech | Tex PD: 1.50 4.67 13.67 | 36.75 YD: 169.25 84.33 235.67 | 151.50 Score: 9.63 7.41 21.13 | 32.22 So after this weekend's games, the Minnesota win looks 5 points better, the Tech win looks 6 points better, the Texas win looks 4 points better, and the SMU win dropped a fraction of a point. Cumulatively, this had the effect of raising TCU's DUSHEE score from 17.73 to 20.95. Those of you questioning DUSHEE's sobriety probably question the positioning of 2-loss West Virginia and Texas Tech in the top 6. We'll hold off on further analysis on these two teams until later in the season, but qualitatively, DUSHEE really, really loves the top of the Big XII-II to the point that close losses among the top 6-7 teams in the conference do not negatively impact their DUSHEE ranking ... they act as further confirmation that those teams are really good. As long as those teams continue to play each other competitively and don't lose to teams like Kansas or Iowa State, they will continue to rank highly. The Top 3/Bottom 3 DUSHEE performances Top 3: 89.3 Mississippi (52-665) vs. New Mexico State (3-239) 49.3 Michigan (38-380) vs. Northwestern (0-168) 42.8 Duke (44-458) vs. Army (3-168) Bottom 3: -62.5 Hawaii (14-251) vs. San Diego State (28-402) -51.7 Oregon State (7-249) vs. Arizona (44-644) -49.8 UTEP (12-267) vs. FIU (52-518) Conference Rankings B12 12.39 SEC 11.88 ACC 8.23 P12 6.28 B1G 5.53 AAC -2.20 MAC -6.25 MWC -12.15 CUSA -14.04 SBC -22.22 Next Week's Opponent Iowa State (DUSHEE Ranking #81) Opp: Iowa Tol Kan | Ttech PD: 1.50 12.75 -9.67 | -27.75 YD: -107.00 298.75 -67.33 | -247.25 Score: -4.45 23.72 -9.87 | -31.10 Despite losing to Toledo in overtime, DUSHEE views the Cyclones' performance in that game favorably, primarily because ISU outgained the Rockets by 170 yards. Kansas is so bad that beating the Jayhawks by 25 is viewed as a significantly worse performance than the OT loss to Toledo. DUSHEE installs TCU as a 22.5 point favorite over Iowa State, giving the Cyclones 4 points for home field. Full Rankings 1 Baylor 38.29 304.38 41.03 2 Alabama 27.23 253.50 31.07 3 Clemson 28.64 213.95 29.99 4 Mississippi 26.26 236.77 29.57 5 West Virginia 24.27 222.52 27.52 6 Texas Tech 22.67 213.89 26.01 7 Michigan 23.23 179.73 24.64 8 Notre Dame 19.51 190.36 22.70 9 TCU 17.50 182.23 20.95 10 Oklahoma 20.60 135.71 20.64 ________________________________________ 11 Florida 22.97 100.92 20.46 12 USC 23.18 92.42 20.16 13 Texas A&M 21.29 117.05 20.16 14 Boise St. 18.06 153.70 19.87 15 Washington 22.85 69.81 18.79 16 Stanford 18.15 129.33 18.69 17 Utah 23.26 39.38 17.51 18 Iowa 16.17 112.60 16.51 19 Navy 17.59 93.55 16.49 20 Tennessee 17.39 95.24 16.44 _________________________________________ 21 Oklahoma St. 17.54 90.55 16.31 22 LSU 15.46 115.08 16.17 23 Northwestern 14.03 130.78 16.02 24 BYU 15.26 113.68 15.96 25 Florida St. 13.10 130.15 15.36 26 Arkansas 9.95 135.48 13.53 27 Louisville 13.44 78.50 12.96 28 Wisconsin 11.61 101.73 12.92 29 Ohio St. 12.74 85.39 12.84 30 Houston 11.83 84.60 12.20 ___________________________________________ 31 Boston Coll. 4.50 176.81 12.01 32 West. Kentucky 13.46 59.46 12.00 33 Louisiana Tech 9.65 108.90 11.98 34 Kansas St. 15.08 33.43 11.75 35 Penn St. 14.25 40.86 11.58 36 Duke 10.98 83.02 11.55 37 California 11.72 66.18 11.18 38 Appalachian State 9.58 89.29 10.94 39 Arizona St. 10.95 63.90 10.56 40 UCLA 9.63 61.16 9.53 ____________________________________________ 41 Vanderbilt 6.11 105.23 9.44 42 North Carolina 13.48 4.93 9.24 43 Memphis 4.78 115.27 9.06 44 Georgia 8.90 61.27 9.06 45 Mississippi St. 12.02 17.67 8.91 46 Miami (FL) 8.35 65.48 8.90 47 Georgia Tech 10.01 38.75 8.65 48 Pittsburgh 6.73 72.85 8.20 49 Indiana 10.06 27.37 8.10 50 Virginia Tech 9.58 31.79 8.00 _______________________________________________ 51 Temple 13.93 -27.17 7.90 52 Toledo 8.22 37.44 7.39 53 Nebraska 7.87 33.15 6.94 54 N.C. State 5.03 59.98 6.41 55 Bowling Green 0.94 93.89 5.41 56 Cincinnati 2.52 65.58 5.02 57 Washington St. 1.98 57.83 4.27 58 Massachusetts 2.68 46.60 4.16 59 Air Force -0.28 84.36 4.11 60 Illinois 5.08 5.32 3.66 ________________________________________________ 61 Arizona 0.45 53.93 3.04 62 Middle Tenn. St. 1.62 31.93 2.70 63 East Carolina 2.19 16.33 2.29 64 Kentucky 4.34 -18.73 1.94 65 Michigan St. 3.46 -7.92 1.90 66 Minnesota -1.76 41.04 0.91 67 Oregon -0.52 3.57 -0.16 68 Utah St. 3.42 -50.40 -0.29 69 Akron 0.50 -15.54 -0.46 70 Tulsa -0.57 -3.98 -0.58 _________________________________________________ 71 Auburn 2.52 -46.56 -0.69 72 Virginia -4.60 40.12 -1.02 73 Buffalo -0.34 -20.93 -1.29 74 Northern Illinois -2.27 0.53 -1.48 75 Ohio 3.07 -76.73 -1.86 76 Missouri -1.96 -25.45 -2.61 77 Texas -1.92 -40.91 -3.36 78 Wake Forest -5.13 -13.92 -4.13 79 Cent. Michigan -4.98 -17.73 -4.23 80 Connecticut -2.48 -69.71 -5.20 __________________________________________________ 81 Iowa St. -5.79 -30.71 -5.43 82 South Florida -4.44 -52.69 -5.64 83 SMU -8.07 -24.67 -6.63 84 South Carolina -4.57 -80.53 -7.15 85 Army -5.55 -73.80 -7.46 86 Marshall 2.56 -188.29 -7.88 87 Georgia Southern -9.08 -36.17 -7.90 88 W. Michigan -10.35 -46.11 -9.25 89 Oregon St. -9.89 -54.70 -9.38 90 Maryland -8.99 -68.95 -9.50 ________________________________________________ 91 Nevada -7.07 -96.58 -9.63 92 Ball St. -7.70 -95.75 -10.01 93 UNLV -8.63 -85.07 -10.09 94 Colorado St. -11.55 -50.39 -10.27 95 Southern Miss -10.50 -67.81 -10.45 96 Syracuse -5.19 -145.69 -10.88 97 Florida Intl. -8.85 -99.40 -10.96 98 Wyoming -18.87 -2.68 -12.71 99 Rutgers -9.02 -135.85 -12.93 100 LA Lafayette -17.69 -67.13 -15.21 _________________________________________________ 101 Rice -18.46 -64.97 -15.61 103 Purdue -14.53 -126.85 -16.15 104 UT-San Antonio -18.29 -83.17 -16.43 105 Florida Atlantic -20.08 -76.05 -17.26 106 Arkansas St. -18.71 -94.73 -17.30 107 Troy -21.35 -95.35 -19.09 108 San Diego St. -20.52 -112.20 -19.40 109 San Jose St. -21.37 -121.55 -20.44 110 South Alabama -25.03 -74.53 -20.48 _________________________________________________ 111 LA Monroe -20.25 -147.71 -21.02 112 Kent St. -20.76 -141.49 -21.05 113 Old Dominion -18.68 -209.52 -23.13 114 New Mexico -20.30 -190.10 -23.22 115 East. Michigan -22.96 -158.47 -23.38 116 Miami (OH) -27.46 -135.46 -25.20 117 Texas St. -28.40 -172.50 -27.72 118 Colorado -29.30 -182.85 -28.85 119 Georgia State -31.58 -158.75 -29.14 120 UCF -25.70 -236.70 -29.19 ___________________________________________________ 121 Idaho -26.81 -233.31 -29.76 122 UNC-Charlotte -33.10 -158.50 -30.14 123 Hawaii -28.57 -227.24 -30.62 124 Kansas -28.75 -242.92 -31.54 125 Tulane -28.00 -263.88 -32.11 126 Fresno St. -30.45 -250.53 -33.06 127 New Mexico St. -32.16 -258.96 -34.63 128 UTEP -39.42 -240.95 -38.55 129 North Texas -41.81 -213.50 -38.75 Rankings by Conference AAC 19 Navy 17.59 93.55 16.49 30 Houston 11.83 84.60 12.20 43 Memphis 4.78 115.27 9.06 51 Temple 13.93 -27.17 7.90 56 Cincinnati 2.52 65.58 5.02 63 East Carolina 2.19 16.33 2.29 70 Tulsa -0.57 -3.98 -0.58 80 Connecticut -2.48 -69.71 -5.20 82 South Florida -4.44 -52.69 -5.64 83 SMU -8.07 -24.67 -6.63 120 UCF -25.70 -236.70 -29.19 125 Tulane -28.00 -263.88 -32.11 ACC 3 Clemson 28.64 213.95 29.99 25 Florida St. 13.10 130.15 15.36 27 Louisville 13.44 78.50 12.96 31 Boston Coll. 4.50 176.81 12.01 36 Duke 10.98 83.02 11.55 42 North Carolina 13.48 4.93 9.24 46 Miami (FL) 8.35 65.48 8.90 47 Georgia Tech 10.01 38.75 8.65 48 Pittsburgh 6.73 72.85 8.20 50 Virginia Tech 9.58 31.79 8.00 54 N.C. State 5.03 59.98 6.41 72 Virginia -4.60 40.12 -1.02 78 Wake Forest -5.13 -13.92 -4.13 96 Syracuse -5.19 -145.69 -10.88 B1G 7 Michigan 23.23 179.73 24.64 18 Iowa 16.17 112.60 16.51 23 Northwestern 14.03 130.78 16.02 28 Wisconsin 11.61 101.73 12.92 29 Ohio St. 12.74 85.39 12.84 35 Penn St. 14.25 40.86 11.58 49 Indiana 10.06 27.37 8.10 53 Nebraska 7.87 33.15 6.94 60 Illinois 5.08 5.32 3.66 65 Michigan St. 3.46 -7.92 1.90 66 Minnesota -1.76 41.04 0.91 90 Maryland -8.99 -68.95 -9.50 99 Rutgers -9.02 -135.85 -12.93 103 Purdue -14.53 -126.85 -16.15 BXII-II 1 Baylor 38.29 304.38 41.03 5 West Virginia 24.27 222.52 27.52 6 Texas Tech 22.67 213.89 26.01 9 TCU 17.50 182.23 20.95 10 Oklahoma 20.60 135.71 20.64 21 Oklahoma St. 17.54 90.55 16.31 34 Kansas St. 15.08 33.43 11.75 77 Texas -1.92 -40.91 -3.36 81 Iowa St. -5.79 -30.71 -5.43 124 Kansas -28.75 -242.92 -31.54 CUSA 32 West. Kentucky 13.46 59.46 12.00 33 Louisiana Tech 9.65 108.90 11.98 62 Middle Tenn. St. 1.62 31.93 2.70 86 Marshall 2.56 -188.29 -7.88 95 Southern Miss -10.50 -67.81 -10.45 97 Florida Intl. -8.85 -99.40 -10.96 101 Rice -18.46 -64.97 -15.61 104 UT-San Antonio -18.29 -83.17 -16.43 105 Florida Atlantic -20.08 -76.05 -17.26 113 Old Dominion -18.68 -209.52 -23.13 122 UNC-Charlotte -33.10 -158.50 -30.14 128 UTEP -39.42 -240.95 -38.55 129 North Texas -41.81 -213.50 -38.75 Indies 8 Notre Dame 19.51 190.36 22.70 24 BYU 15.26 113.68 15.96 85 Army -5.55 -73.80 -7.46 MAC 52 Toledo 8.22 37.44 7.39 55 Bowling Green 0.94 93.89 5.41 58 Massachusetts 2.68 46.60 4.16 69 Akron 0.50 -15.54 -0.46 73 Buffalo -0.34 -20.93 -1.29 74 Northern Illinois -2.27 0.53 -1.48 75 Ohio 3.07 -76.73 -1.86 79 Cent. Michigan -4.98 -17.73 -4.23 88 W. Michigan -10.35 -46.11 -9.25 92 Ball St. -7.70 -95.75 -10.01 112 Kent St. -20.76 -141.49 -21.05 115 East. Michigan -22.96 -158.47 -23.38 116 Miami (OH) -27.46 -135.46 -25.20 MWC 14 Boise St. 18.06 153.70 19.87 59 Air Force -0.28 84.36 4.11 68 Utah St. 3.42 -50.40 -0.29 91 Nevada -7.07 -96.58 -9.63 93 UNLV -8.63 -85.07 -10.09 94 Colorado St. -11.55 -50.39 -10.27 98 Wyoming -18.87 -2.68 -12.71 108 San Diego St. -20.52 -112.20 -19.40 109 San Jose St. -21.37 -121.55 -20.44 114 New Mexico -20.30 -190.10 -23.22 123 Hawaii -28.57 -227.24 -30.62 126 Fresno St. -30.45 -250.53 -33.06 P12 12 USC 23.18 92.42 20.16 15 Washington 22.85 69.81 18.79 16 Stanford 18.15 129.33 18.69 17 Utah 23.26 39.38 17.51 37 California 11.72 66.18 11.18 39 Arizona St. 10.95 63.90 10.56 40 UCLA 9.63 61.16 9.53 57 Washington St. 1.98 57.83 4.27 61 Arizona 0.45 53.93 3.04 67 Oregon -0.52 3.57 -0.16 89 Oregon St. -9.89 -54.70 -9.38 118 Colorado -29.30 -182.85 -28.85 SBC 38 Appalachian State 9.58 89.29 10.94 87 Georgia Southern -9.08 -36.17 -7.90 100 LA Lafayette -17.69 -67.13 -15.21 106 Arkansas St. -18.71 -94.73 -17.30 107 Troy -21.35 -95.35 -19.09 110 South Alabama -25.03 -74.53 -20.48 111 LA Monroe -20.25 -147.71 -21.02 117 Texas St. -28.40 -172.50 -27.72 119 Georgia State -31.58 -158.75 -29.14 121 Idaho -26.81 -233.31 -29.76 127 New Mexico St. -32.16 -258.96 -34.63 SEC 2 Alabama 27.23 253.50 31.07 4 Mississippi 26.26 236.77 29.57 11 Florida 22.97 100.92 20.46 13 Texas A&M 21.29 117.05 20.16 20 Tennessee 17.39 95.24 16.44 22 LSU 15.46 115.08 16.17 26 Arkansas 9.95 135.48 13.53 41 Vanderbilt 6.11 105.23 9.44 44 Georgia 8.90 61.27 9.06 45 Mississippi St. 12.02 17.67 8.91 64 Kentucky 4.34 -18.73 1.94 71 Auburn 2.52 -46.56 -0.69 76 Missouri -1.96 -25.45 -2.61 84 South Carolina -4.57 -80.53 -7.15

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE

To explain what happened to TCU in this week's poll, I'll ask all of you to go back into the repressed memories of the days after the Iowa State game last season and remember what happened prior to the release of the playoff seedings. Remember that coincident to our destruction of a mediocre-to-poor conference opponent, all of our best resume bullets took a hit: Oklahoma lost, Kansas State lost, Minnesota had lost the week before to a team that got destroyed by Ohio State that week. Things outside the control of the team all went in the wrong direction despite the team being decisively in control of the things it could. So this week the Frogs drop from 9 to 16, despite curbstomping Texas. It wasn't because DUSHEE wasn't impressed with the performance against Texas ... it was. TCU's PD against Texas was 36.75, certainly putting it in the top 10 performances of the week. It was what our prior opponents did that cost the Frogs this week. Minnesota was blanked by Northwestern 27-0, SMU was whipped by a middling ECU 49-23, and Tech was beaten by Baylor by 25 more points than TCU beat them, deflating TCU's point differential against Tech compared to what it was the week before. Last week, DUSHEE calculated TCU with a PD of 17.50 and a YD of 224.06. Here are TCU's week-to-week scores as of this week: Opp: Minn SMU Ttech Tex PD: 1.50 4.67 13.67 36.75 YD: 169.25 84.33 235.67 151.50 So if you ignore the Texas game and look at the average PD and YD for the first three games, those numbers fell to PD = 6.61 and YD = 163.08 in the course of one week. The contribution of those games to our Score fell by 11 points and 80 yards because of their poor performances. Thankfully (for Frog fans) we did smoke Texas; if TCU had had a bye this week, we would have fallen down around 30th. For reference, here are Tech and Baylor's week-to-week numbers: Tech UTEP Ark TCU Bay 32.00 18.00 19.67 16.00 141.67 223.75 61.33 406.50 Baylor SMU Rice Ttech 26.00 40.00 47.00 273.67 576.67 103.67 The Tech game brought Baylor's YD down significantly; from 513.25 last week to 318.00 this week. And SMU also had a deleterious effect on Baylor's PD (not to mention Rice getting pounded 49-10 by Western Kentucky); the 43.75 they held last week would have fallen to 33.00 this week if we ignore the Tech performance this week. Another feature I'll add to the weekly DUSHEE rankings are the top and bottom performances of the week based on DUSHEE score. Keep in mind that the DUSHEE score is based on the numbers as they are right now. If we were to go back and look at this week at the end of the season, the performances (and certainly the scores) might be different. Top 3 Performances (Points and Total Yards in parentheses) 59.4: Oklahoma(44-427) vs. WVU(24-369) 50.9: Alabama (38-379) vs. UGa (10-299) (The game I'd written down for #3 makes no sense so I have to go back and look at the data when I get home ... a correction to this post may be pending) Bottom 3 Performances -54.9: UCF(31-357) vs. Tulane(45-395) -46.5: Fresno(7-89) vs. SDSU(21-409) -45.5: Idaho(35-388) vs. Ark. St.(49-521) And finally, the current conference rankings. The Big XII-II remains on top, although the gap closed. Note how far the MWC has fallen since the heady days of TCU, Utah, and BYU. Not even Boise can help. B12 14.54 SEC 11.61 ACC 10.50 P10 6.87 B10 6.27 AAC -2.11 MAC -7.16 MWC -14.19 CUSA -16.06 SBC -21.55 Here are your Week 5 DUSHEE rankings: Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Baylor 37.67 318.00 41.58 2 Alabama 31.45 257.48 34.30 3 Oklahoma 32.96 233.63 34.07 4 West Virginia 31.89 246.56 34.03 5 Clemson 29.92 151.50 27.79 6 USC 28.63 120.38 25.32 7 Texas Tech 21.42 208.31 25.07 8 Stanford 24.20 157.43 24.29 9 Michigan 21.07 184.20 23.59 10 Iowa 21.85 157.90 22.75 __________________________________________ 11 Notre Dame 17.42 201.02 22.02 12 Florida 24.53 101.93 21.64 13 Northwestern 19.40 150.27 20.71 14 Navy 21.06 99.78 19.21 15 Texas A&M 19.40 114.68 18.87 16 TCU 14.15 160.19 17.73 17 Tennessee 18.50 102.02 17.62 18 BYU 15.13 130.63 16.86 19 Utah 23.13 21.77 16.54 ___________________________________________ 20 North Carolina 19.03 72.47 16.44 21 Mississippi 14.42 130.65 16.38 22 Georgia Tech 14.85 119.33 16.08 23 Louisville 17.00 87.92 15.89 24 Oklahoma St. 15.48 102.25 15.62 25 Arizona St. 14.23 118.00 15.60 26 Houston 13.06 131.89 15.54 27 LSU 17.54 72.27 15.44 28 Boise St. 14.67 101.98 15.06 29 Kansas St. 18.00 56.17 14.91 30 Ohio St. 12.63 108.10 14.02 _____________________________________________ 31 Georgia 11.75 118.00 13.95 32 Arkansas 9.27 145.33 13.71 33 Pittsburgh 11.22 114.78 13.43 34 Wisconsin 13.62 81.63 13.31 35 N.C. State 11.21 103.96 12.86 36 Boston Coll. 6.44 158.44 12.50 37 Florida St. 10.46 105.63 12.44 38 Washington 15.94 30.89 12.23 39 Indiana 12.10 58.17 11.08 40 Mississippi St. 14.79 22.08 11.01 _______________________________________________ 41 Louisiana Tech 10.21 78.81 10.89 42 Duke 9.58 85.00 10.79 43 Vanderbilt 6.98 107.63 10.23 44 Miami (FL) 6.31 108.81 9.84 45 Illinois 9.31 56.21 9.12 46 Toledo 10.69 36.63 9.02 47 Nebraska 8.90 59.32 9.01 48 Penn St. 12.67 7.43 8.83 49 California 9.19 44.65 8.44 50 Middle Tenn. St. 6.54 77.85 8.39 ___________________________________________________ 51 West. Kentucky 10.07 32.40 8.39 52 Temple 14.92 -39.56 7.90 53 Memphis 3.65 97.56 7.48 54 Air Force 3.69 96.39 7.46 55 Tulsa 6.83 51.79 7.24 56 Massachusetts 5.92 47.25 6.39 57 East Carolina 7.04 16.94 5.57 58 Iowa St. 5.06 40.67 5.48 59 Cincinnati 2.46 69.42 5.23 60 Oregon 4.17 43.54 5.03 ____________________________________________________ 61 UCLA 4.53 30.40 4.60 62 Minnesota -1.27 92.47 3.95 63 Oregon St. -0.42 72.69 3.49 64 Washington St. 1.33 48.33 3.39 65 Appalachian State 3.28 9.44 2.67 66 Wake Forest 1.04 35.42 2.53 67 Virginia Tech 4.46 -15.38 2.18 68 Cent. Michigan 1.27 16.79 1.72 69 Kentucky 2.94 -22.48 0.79 70 Bowling Green -3.47 50.13 0.29 __________________________________________________ 71 Michigan St. 2.17 -33.03 -0.27 72 Connecticut 0.67 -37.58 -1.50 73 Utah St. 2.83 -66.44 -1.55 74 Syracuse 3.67 -87.33 -2.08 75 Army -1.65 -44.10 -3.38 76 South Carolina -1.77 -47.40 -3.63 77 Virginia -6.94 17.00 -3.75 78 Auburn -0.33 -69.25 -3.81 79 Missouri -3.69 -29.35 -3.98 80 Ball St. -1.19 -76.13 -4.74 ______________________________________________ 81 Northern Illinois -6.35 -20.63 -5.30 82 Buffalo -4.71 -54.90 -5.98 83 Akron -7.88 -29.13 -6.76 84 Ohio -1.73 -111.88 -6.95 85 Arizona -8.23 -33.33 -7.21 86 Texas -7.33 -96.12 -9.87 87 Georgia Southern -11.63 -46.75 -10.17 88 SMU -10.96 -72.79 -11.08 89 W. Michigan -12.50 -72.94 -12.11 90 Southern Miss -12.46 -115.71 -14.30 ________________________________________________ 91 Wyoming -20.65 -10.94 -14.33 92 Florida Intl. -11.17 -133.00 -14.33 93 Marshall -5.67 -203.89 -14.34 94 Troy -16.00 -77.97 -14.71 95 South Florida -12.89 -121.78 -14.90 96 Rutgers -11.17 -149.33 -15.18 97 UNLV -12.21 -136.75 -15.22 98 Florida Atlantic -19.83 -44.67 -15.54 99 Colorado St. -18.92 -57.02 -15.56 100 Purdue -11.81 -166.69 -16.51 ____________________________________________ 101 Maryland -14.50 -134.56 -16.64 102 Arkansas St. -17.08 -105.17 -16.84 103 UT-San Antonio -23.00 -77.40 -19.34 104 South Alabama -24.44 -71.60 -20.00 105 New Mexico -19.83 -140.67 -20.51 106 San Diego St. -21.65 -122.65 -20.78 107 LA Monroe -21.75 -124.03 -20.92 108 East. Michigan -19.20 -157.07 -20.94 109 Nevada -16.21 -202.29 -21.28 110 LA Lafayette -24.44 -100.22 -21.49 ______________________________________________ 111 Kent St. -25.06 -109.31 -22.37 112 San Jose St. -25.33 -112.50 -22.72 113 Texas St. -22.83 -155.61 -23.28 114 Hawaii -21.98 -185.85 -24.28 115 Rice -25.75 -142.75 -24.56 116 Miami (OH) -28.25 -125.88 -25.35 117 Old Dominion -20.71 -225.04 -25.46 118 Georgia State -32.56 -103.44 -27.06 119 Colorado -28.67 -196.75 -29.30 120 UNC-Charlotte -33.13 -147.71 -29.73 _____________________________________________ 121 New Mexico St. -28.77 -214.60 -30.30 122 Idaho -26.83 -247.08 -30.69 123 UCF -26.83 -270.10 -31.88 124 Kansas -29.61 -260.72 -33.25 125 Tulane -30.78 -262.11 -34.10 126 UTEP -38.58 -201.17 -36.14 127 Fresno St. -32.58 -286.67 -36.57 128 North Texas -43.67 -261.08 -42.64 By Conference: AAC 14 Navy 21.06 99.78 19.21 26 Houston 13.06 131.89 15.54 52 Temple 14.92 -39.56 7.90 53 Memphis 3.65 97.56 7.48 55 Tulsa 6.83 51.79 7.24 57 East Carolina 7.04 16.94 5.57 59 Cincinnati 2.46 69.42 5.23 72 Connecticut 0.67 -37.58 -1.50 88 SMU -10.96 -72.79 -11.08 95 South Florida -12.89 -121.78 -14.90 124 UCF -26.83 -270.10 -31.88 126 Tulane -30.78 -262.11 -34.10 __________________________________________ ACC 5 Clemson 29.92 151.50 27.79 20 North Carolina 19.03 72.47 16.44 22 Georgia Tech 14.85 119.33 16.08 23 Louisville 17.00 87.92 15.89 33 Pittsburgh 11.22 114.78 13.43 35 N.C. State 11.21 103.96 12.86 36 Boston Coll. 6.44 158.44 12.50 37 Florida St. 10.46 105.63 12.44 42 Duke 9.58 85.00 10.79 44 Miami (FL) 6.31 108.81 9.84 66 Wake Forest 1.04 35.42 2.53 67 Virginia Tech 4.46 -15.38 2.18 74 Syracuse 3.67 -87.33 -2.08 77 Virginia -6.94 17.00 -3.75 ______________________________________ B1G 9 Michigan 21.07 184.20 23.59 10 Iowa 21.85 157.90 22.75 13 Northwestern 19.40 150.27 20.71 30 Ohio St. 12.63 108.10 14.02 34 Wisconsin 13.62 81.63 13.31 39 Indiana 12.10 58.17 11.08 45 Illinois 9.31 56.21 9.12 47 Nebraska 8.90 59.32 9.01 48 Penn St. 12.67 7.43 8.83 62 Minnesota -1.27 92.47 3.95 71 Michigan St. 2.17 -33.03 -0.27 96 Rutgers -11.17 -149.33 -15.18 100 Purdue -11.81 -166.69 -16.51 101 Maryland -14.50 -134.56 -16.64 _______________________________________ BXII-II 1 Baylor 37.67 318.00 41.58 3 Oklahoma 32.96 233.63 34.07 4 West Virginia 31.89 246.56 34.03 7 Texas Tech 21.42 208.31 25.07 16 TCU 14.15 160.19 17.73 24 Oklahoma St. 15.48 102.25 15.62 29 Kansas St. 18.00 56.17 14.91 58 Iowa St. 5.06 40.67 5.48 86 Texas -7.33 -96.12 -9.87 125 Kansas -29.61 -260.72 -33.25 ____________________________________ CUSA 41 Louisiana Tech 10.21 78.81 10.89 50 Middle Tenn. St. 6.54 77.85 8.39 51 West. Kentucky 10.07 32.40 8.39 90 Southern Miss -12.46 -115.71 -14.30 92 Florida Intl. -11.17 -133.00 -14.33 93 Marshall -5.67 -203.89 -14.34 98 Florida Atlantic -19.83 -44.67 -15.54 104 UT-San Antonio -23.00 -77.40 -19.34 116 Rice -25.75 -142.75 -24.56 118 Old Dominion -20.71 -225.04 -25.46 121 UNC-Charlotte -33.13 -147.71 -29.73 127 UTEP -38.58 -201.17 -36.14 128 North Texas -43.67 -261.08 -42.64 ________________________________________ Indies 11 Notre Dame 17.42 201.02 22.02 18 BYU 15.13 130.63 16.86 75 Army -1.65 -44.10 -3.38 ________________________________________ MAC 46 Toledo 10.69 36.63 9.02 56 Massachusetts 5.92 47.25 6.39 68 Cent. Michigan 1.27 16.79 1.72 70 Bowling Green -3.47 50.13 0.29 80 Ball St. -1.19 -76.13 -4.74 81 Northern Illinois -6.35 -20.63 -5.30 82 Buffalo -4.71 -54.90 -5.98 83 Akron -7.88 -29.13 -6.76 84 Ohio -1.73 -111.88 -6.95 89 W. Michigan -12.50 -72.94 -12.11 109 East. Michigan -19.20 -157.07 -20.94 112 Kent St. -25.06 -109.31 -22.37 117 Miami (OH) -28.25 -125.88 -25.35 ____________________________________________ MWC 28 Boise St. 14.67 101.98 15.06 54 Air Force 3.69 96.39 7.46 73 Utah St. 2.83 -66.44 -1.55 91 Wyoming -20.65 -10.94 -14.33 97 UNLV -12.21 -136.75 -15.22 99 Colorado St. -18.92 -57.02 -15.56 106 New Mexico -19.83 -140.67 -20.51 107 San Diego St. -21.65 -122.65 -20.78 110 Nevada -16.21 -202.29 -21.28 113 San Jose St. -25.33 -112.50 -22.72 115 Hawaii -21.98 -185.85 -24.28 128 Fresno St. -32.58 -286.67 -36.57 _______________________________________ P12 6 USC 28.63 120.38 25.32 8 Stanford 24.20 157.43 24.29 19 Utah 23.13 21.77 16.54 25 Arizona St. 14.23 118.00 15.60 38 Washington 15.94 30.89 12.23 49 California 9.19 44.65 8.44 60 Oregon 4.17 43.54 5.03 61 UCLA 4.53 30.40 4.60 63 Oregon St. -0.42 72.69 3.49 64 Washington St. 1.33 48.33 3.39 85 Arizona -8.23 -33.33 -7.21 120 Colorado -28.67 -196.75 -29.30 _________________________________________ SBC 65 Appalachian State 3.28 9.44 2.67 87 Georgia Southern -11.63 -46.75 -10.17 94 Troy -16.00 -77.97 -14.71 103 Arkansas St. -17.08 -105.17 -16.84 105 South Alabama -24.44 -71.60 -20.00 108 LA Monroe -21.75 -124.03 -20.92 111 LA Lafayette -24.44 -100.22 -21.49 114 Texas St. -22.83 -155.61 -23.28 119 Georgia State -32.56 -103.44 -27.06 122 New Mexico St. -28.77 -214.60 -30.30 123 Idaho -26.83 -247.08 -30.69 _________________________________________ SEC 2 Alabama 31.45 257.48 34.30 12 Florida 24.53 101.93 21.64 15 Texas A&M 19.40 114.68 18.87 17 Tennessee 18.50 102.02 17.62 21 Mississippi 14.42 130.65 16.38 27 LSU 17.54 72.27 15.44 31 Georgia 11.75 118.00 13.95 32 Arkansas 9.27 145.33 13.71 40 Mississippi St. 14.79 22.08 11.01 43 Vanderbilt 6.98 107.63 10.23 69 Kentucky 2.94 -22.48 0.79 76 South Carolina -1.77 -47.40 -3.63 78 Auburn -0.33 -69.25 -3.81 79 Missouri -3.69 -29.35 -3.98

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Inaugural 2015 DUSHEE Rankings

Well, here it is, folks. This first ranking comes out with the usual caveat: it's early. Many of the teams are ranked on the basis of two games played against FBS competition, including the top 2 teams in the ranking, conference mates Baylor and West Virginia. In fact, this may be the first time that every team has emerged past the 2 FBS opponents threshold by week 4 since I started doing this. Usually there is a straggler or two with more than one bye or FCS opponent in the early part of the season. The Frogs come in at number 9, which frankly is higher than I thought they would be. The Frogs' ranking is buoyed in a large part by their yardage differential, where they rank 6th in the country, gaining 224 more yards against their opponents than the average team has. DUSHEE, at this point, has SMU as an average FBS team (rank 68th, DUSHEE score 1.37 ... a score of 0 is average) and Tech as a top 15 team. Minnesota comes in at 49th with a DUSHEE score of 7.90. TCU's schedule strength is among the top 25 in the country right now, keeping in mind that DUSHEE is completely unaware that the SFA game was played. DUSHEE is a big fan of the Big XII-II after 4 weeks, ranking them easily the best conference based on the average team scores. Five Big XII-II teams are ranked in the top 14. And, like last year, DUSHEE is not on board with ESPN's touting of the Pac12 as the next emerging super conference. It places ZERO teams in the top 15 and only two (USC, Stanford) in the top 25. In fact, DUSHEE has the Pac12 as the lowest rated "Power 5" conference by some margin. In fact, DUSHEE has the Left Coasters closer in conference strength to the American Athletic Conference than the Big 12, SEC, or ACC. Here is the week 4 conference ratings: B12 17.93 SEC 12.80 ACC 11.98 B10 6.32 P12 3.97 AAC -0.24 MAC -9.81 MWC -14.61 CUSA -17.43 SBC -20.99 A few obvious early candidates for the 2015 WTF team have emerged. No. 8 Iowa, no. 22 Vanderbilt, and no. 23 Pitt all merit future scrutiny as the weeks progress. Again, keeping in mind that there is a lot of movement in this ranking early in the season. Last season LSU opened as the #2 DUSHEE team in week 5 and were #20 by season's end. Georgia Tech started week 5 as the 50th ranked team last season; they finished the season at number 13. Finally, carrying forward the discussion of the last blog post, venue is still being ignored. Until I can get a handle on what the statistical impact home games have on the DUSHEE rankings, I will wait to adjust rankings until I have that handle. That adjustment may not happen until after the regular season. And with all that, here is your inaugural 2015 DUSHEE rankings: Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Baylor 43.75 513.25 54.53 2 West Virginia 53.25 321.75 51.40 3 Clemson 39.00 286.75 40.17 4 Alabama 33.25 318.54 37.91 5 Oklahoma 28.67 235.00 30.72 6 Tennessee 25.11 187.50 26.01 7 Notre Dame 23.71 196.25 25.50 8 Iowa 19.00 205.00 22.80 9 TCU 17.50 224.06 22.74 10 Mississippi 20.78 166.83 22.10 __________________________________________ 11 Michigan 19.83 177.67 22.00 12 Miami (FL) 18.67 166.00 20.65 13 Northwestern 17.44 164.17 19.74 14 Texas Tech 20.50 121.28 19.66 15 North Carolina 24.58 63.92 19.55 16 USC 22.54 77.71 18.87 17 Ohio St. 18.00 125.00 18.18 18 Stanford 18.83 110.21 18.00 19 Middle Tenn. St. 16.44 137.72 17.77 20 Texas A&M 18.79 104.46 17.69 ________________________________________________ 21 Georgia 17.06 115.06 17.06 22 Vanderbilt 15.83 129.61 16.96 23 Pittsburgh 17.75 101.50 16.85 24 Air Force 12.50 164.25 16.45 25 Boston Coll. 10.50 187.00 16.24 26 Arkansas 13.79 142.08 16.22 27 Louisiana Tech 11.72 166.94 16.06 28 Memphis 8.89 195.67 15.60 29 LSU 18.83 60.67 15.55 30 N.C. State 12.83 140.33 15.49 __________________________________________________ 31 Florida 16.83 84.50 15.40 32 Florida St. 12.17 145.00 15.28 33 Georgia Tech 13.06 117.67 14.52 34 BYU 15.29 82.08 14.25 35 Navy 17.50 45.75 13.93 36 Louisville 15.67 66.67 13.74 37 Oklahoma St. 12.39 98.00 13.10 38 UCLA 13.00 64.33 11.85 39 Indiana 10.06 83.11 10.81 40 Iowa St. 10.25 76.50 10.61 ________________________________________________ 41 Utah 17.17 -23.46 10.29 42 Houston 9.25 75.25 9.89 43 Wisconsin 11.33 45.21 9.79 44 Connecticut 8.33 65.83 8.81 45 Illinois 8.00 66.67 8.63 46 Kansas St. 7.08 76.17 8.49 47 Temple 14.33 -24.17 8.36 48 Appalachian State 5.50 94.50 8.34 49 Minnesota -0.13 161.50 7.90 50 Nebraska 7.13 57.46 7.59 _____________________________________________ 51 Arizona St. 6.39 60.50 7.25 52 Mississippi St. 10.50 -8.33 6.59 53 Tulsa 4.28 73.61 6.49 54 Duke 3.67 62.50 5.53 55 Boise St. 5.50 32.72 5.28 56 Troy 3.33 59.08 5.14 57 Michigan St. 8.38 -10.88 5.05 58 Washington 8.33 -11.33 5.00 59 Massachusetts 7.89 -6.50 4.94 60 Penn St. 9.25 -26.25 4.87 __________________________________________________ 61 Cent. Michigan 2.17 52.06 4.02 62 South Carolina 9.21 -53.04 3.52 63 Oregon 5.28 -3.06 3.37 64 California 7.00 -30.78 3.15 65 Washington St. -0.25 42.75 1.95 66 East Carolina 2.83 0.06 1.89 67 West. Kentucky 2.88 -4.13 1.71 68 SMU -2.83 66.00 1.37 69 Kentucky 3.25 -21.08 1.12 70 Oregon St. -2.17 49.56 1.00 ___________________________________________________ 71 Bowling Green -6.50 96.88 0.45 72 Virginia Tech 1.06 -7.28 0.34 73 Texas 5.54 -81.46 -0.33 74 Wake Forest -1.17 -3.50 -0.95 75 Arizona -3.11 -3.67 -2.26 76 Army -0.39 -46.39 -2.55 77 Ball St. -1.61 -34.28 -2.77 78 Georgia Southern -2.67 -25.17 -3.02 79 Toledo 1.56 -86.50 -3.24 80 Syracuse 0.50 -100.00 -4.61 ______________________________________________________ 81 Virginia -8.22 9.44 -5.01 82 Cincinnati -11.33 33.83 -5.88 83 Ohio -1.67 -110.72 -6.58 84 Auburn -4.67 -83.83 -7.25 85 Northern Illinois -5.39 -86.44 -7.86 86 Utah St. -2.58 -147.00 -8.99 87 Buffalo -5.39 -120.78 -9.56 88 Missouri -12.67 -24.39 -9.65 89 Maryland -8.78 -109.89 -11.28 90 Akron -11.17 -87.50 -11.77 __________________________________________________ 91 LA Monroe -16.75 -19.75 -12.14 92 Colorado St. -18.56 -2.78 -12.51 93 Florida Atlantic -16.38 -35.63 -12.68 94 Rutgers -8.67 -149.89 -13.18 95 Florida Intl. -14.33 -77.17 -13.37 96 UNLV -11.89 -115.39 -13.63 97 Hawaii -11.61 -144.44 -14.88 98 W. Michigan -13.89 -116.39 -15.01 99 UT-San Antonio -21.25 -24.75 -15.39 100 Nevada -7.72 -225.39 -16.29 __________________________________________________ 101 Rice -21.00 -71.28 -17.52 102 Marshall -11.50 -211.25 -18.11 103 Southern Miss -16.89 -148.22 -18.58 104 Wyoming -25.61 -49.67 -19.53 105 Arkansas St. -20.11 -164.94 -21.56 106 South Alabama -26.00 -95.22 -22.04 107 Kent St. -28.67 -66.11 -22.38 108 San Jose St. -27.50 -93.67 -22.96 109 South Florida -19.75 -203.50 -23.22 110 Purdue -25.08 -155.42 -24.40 ____________________________________________________ 111 Old Dominion -21.89 -203.06 -24.63 112 East. Michigan -22.75 -207.63 -25.43 113 UCF -19.56 -255.94 -25.69 114 New Mexico -27.00 -161.83 -26.00 115 LA Lafayette -26.58 -193.08 -27.26 116 Idaho -24.56 -243.44 -28.40 117 Texas St. -29.00 -191.83 -28.81 118 Colorado -30.33 -213.67 -30.78 119 San Diego St. -28.33 -241.61 -30.83 120 Fresno St. -29.44 -238.61 -31.42 ____________________________________________________ 121 Kansas -27.00 -276.25 -31.65 122 Miami (OH) -33.06 -209.61 -32.40 123 UNC-Charlotte -37.00 -198.56 -34.48 124 Georgia State -38.83 -181.83 -34.87 125 New Mexico St. -36.22 -259.78 -36.99 126 UTEP -36.44 -256.89 -36.99 127 North Texas -43.33 -251.50 -41.32 128 Tulane -46.75 -311.50 -46.56 By Conference 28 Memphis 8.89 195.67 15.60 42 Houston 9.25 75.25 9.89 44 Connecticut 8.33 65.83 8.81 47 Temple 14.33 -24.17 8.36 53 Tulsa 4.28 73.61 6.49 66 East Carolina 2.83 0.06 1.89 68 SMU -2.83 66.00 1.37 82 Cincinnati -11.33 33.83 -5.88 110 South Florida -19.75 -203.50 -23.22 114 UCF -19.56 -255.94 -25.69 _______________________________________________ 3 Clemson 39.00 286.75 40.17 12 Miami (FL) 18.67 166.00 20.65 15 North Carolina 24.58 63.92 19.55 23 Pittsburgh 17.75 101.50 16.85 25 Boston Coll. 10.50 187.00 16.24 30 N.C. State 12.83 140.33 15.49 32 Florida St. 12.17 145.00 15.28 33 Georgia Tech 13.06 117.67 14.52 36 Louisville 15.67 66.67 13.74 54 Duke 3.67 62.50 5.53 72 Virginia Tech 1.06 -7.28 0.34 74 Wake Forest -1.17 -3.50 -0.95 80 Syracuse 0.50 -100.00 -4.61 81 Virginia -8.22 9.44 -5.01 _______________________________________________ 8 Iowa 19.00 205.00 22.80 11 Michigan 19.83 177.67 22.00 13 Northwestern 17.44 164.17 19.74 17 Ohio St. 18.00 125.00 18.18 39 Indiana 10.06 83.11 10.81 43 Wisconsin 11.33 45.21 9.79 45 Illinois 8.00 66.67 8.63 49 Minnesota -0.13 161.50 7.90 50 Nebraska 7.13 57.46 7.59 57 Michigan St. 8.38 -10.88 5.05 60 Penn St. 9.25 -26.25 4.87 89 Maryland -8.78 -109.89 -11.28 94 Rutgers -8.67 -149.89 -13.18 111 Purdue -25.08 -155.42 -24.40 _______________________________________________________ 1 Baylor 43.75 513.25 54.53 2 West Virginia 53.25 321.75 51.40 5 Oklahoma 28.67 235.00 30.72 9 TCU 17.50 224.06 22.74 14 Texas Tech 20.50 121.28 19.66 37 Oklahoma St. 12.39 98.00 13.10 40 Iowa St. 10.25 76.50 10.61 46 Kansas St. 7.08 76.17 8.49 73 Texas 5.54 -81.46 -0.33 122 Kansas -27.00 -276.25 -31.65 ______________________________________________________ 19 Middle Tenn. St. 16.44 137.72 17.77 27 Louisiana Tech 11.72 166.94 16.06 67 West. Kentucky 2.88 -4.13 1.71 93 Florida Atlantic -16.38 -35.63 -12.68 95 Florida Intl. -14.33 -77.17 -13.37 99 UT-San Antonio -21.25 -24.75 -15.39 101 Rice -21.00 -71.28 -17.52 103 Marshall -11.50 -211.25 -18.11 104 Southern Miss -16.89 -148.22 -18.58 112 Old Dominion -21.89 -203.06 -24.63 124 UNC-Charlotte -37.00 -198.56 -34.48 127 UTEP -36.44 -256.89 -36.99 128 North Texas -43.33 -251.50 -41.32 128 Tulane -46.75 -311.50 -46.56 ____________________________________________________ 7 Notre Dame 23.71 196.25 25.50 34 BYU 15.29 82.08 14.25 35 Navy 17.50 45.75 13.93 76 Army -0.39 -46.39 -2.55 _______________________________________________ 59 Massachusetts 7.89 -6.50 4.94 61 Cent. Michigan 2.17 52.06 4.02 71 Bowling Green -6.50 96.88 0.45 77 Ball St. -1.61 -34.28 -2.77 79 Toledo 1.56 -86.50 -3.24 83 Ohio -1.67 -110.72 -6.58 85 Northern Illinois -5.39 -86.44 -7.86 87 Buffalo -5.39 -120.78 -9.56 90 Akron -11.17 -87.50 -11.77 98 W. Michigan -13.89 -116.39 -15.01 108 Kent St. -28.67 -66.11 -22.38 113 East. Michigan -22.75 -207.63 -25.43 123 Miami (OH) -33.06 -209.61 -32.40 _________________________________________________ 24 Air Force 12.50 164.25 16.45 55 Boise St. 5.50 32.72 5.28 86 Utah St. -2.58 -147.00 -8.99 92 Colorado St. -18.56 -2.78 -12.51 96 UNLV -11.89 -115.39 -13.63 97 Hawaii -11.61 -144.44 -14.88 100 Nevada -7.72 -225.39 -16.29 105 Wyoming -25.61 -49.67 -19.53 109 San Jose St. -27.50 -93.67 -22.96 115 New Mexico -27.00 -161.83 -26.00 120 San Diego St. -28.33 -241.61 -30.83 121 Fresno St. -29.44 -238.61 -31.42 ___________________________________________________ 16 USC 22.54 77.71 18.87 18 Stanford 18.83 110.21 18.00 38 UCLA 13.00 64.33 11.85 41 Utah 17.17 -23.46 10.29 51 Arizona St. 6.39 60.50 7.25 58 Washington 8.33 -11.33 5.00 63 Oregon 5.28 -3.06 3.37 64 California 7.00 -30.78 3.15 65 Washington St. -0.25 42.75 1.95 70 Oregon St. -2.17 49.56 1.00 75 Arizona -3.11 -3.67 -2.26 119 Colorado -30.33 -213.67 -30.78 ____________________________________________________ 48 Appalachian State 5.50 94.50 8.34 56 Troy 3.33 59.08 5.14 78 Georgia Southern -2.67 -25.17 -3.02 91 LA Monroe -16.75 -19.75 -12.14 106 Arkansas St. -20.11 -164.94 -21.56 107 South Alabama -26.00 -95.22 -22.04 116 LA Lafayette -26.58 -193.08 -27.26 117 Idaho -24.56 -243.44 -28.40 118 Texas St. -29.00 -191.83 -28.81 125 Georgia State -38.83 -181.83 -34.87 126 New Mexico St. -36.22 -259.78 -36.99 _____________________________________________________ 4 Alabama 33.25 318.54 37.91 6 Tennessee 25.11 187.50 26.01 10 Mississippi 20.78 166.83 22.10 20 Texas A&M 18.79 104.46 17.69 21 Georgia 17.06 115.06 17.06 22 Vanderbilt 15.83 129.61 16.96 26 Arkansas 13.79 142.08 16.22 29 LSU 18.83 60.67 15.55 31 Florida 16.83 84.50 15.40 52 Mississippi St. 10.50 -8.33 6.59 62 South Carolina 9.21 -53.04 3.52 69 Kentucky 3.25 -21.08 1.12 84 Auburn -4.67 -83.83 -7.25 88 Missouri -12.67 -24.39 -9.65

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Musings Going into the 2015 Season

I've been struggling to come up with some blog ideas to pass the time until the beathlessly-anticipated first DUSHEE ranking does come out, marking the official beginning of college football season. This morning, the Google News aggregator passed this article from the Detroit News before my eyes, the audaciously named "Top three things to know about college football analytics" by one Ed Feng, a fellow engineer. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/2015/09/18/feng-top-three-things-to-know-about-college-football-analytics/72385374/ In his article, he presents some interesting data and reaches a number of conclusions, some of which appear to be justified by the data and others not so much. First in his introduction he makes a point that I've made on these pages numerous times, the college football season provides one of the least rich data sets of any popular American sport: "College football also presents challenges due to a lack of data. The 12-game regular season seems like spare change compared to the 82 games for the NBA or 162 for MLB. Moreover, football offers almost no numbers on important players such as offensive linemen.". The other piece of this is that in addition to the lack of games each team plays, there is a glut of teams all nominally counted in the population of teams. There are 125 teams playing in the FBS. Each only plays roughly 10% of the other teams in the league. Now we get to the three things. I'm not sure why these are the "top" three things we should know about college football analytics, but we'll blame the headline writer for that. Thing 1: Last Year Matters Here Feng really makes two assertions: 1) there is a vast disparity in resources among the 125 teams in the FBS and because of that 2) past performance is a predictor of future results. To me, the obvious place to look for evidence in support of these assertions would be to look for correlation between athletic budgets and revenue, alumni bases, attendance, etc., to performance over time. Instead he focuses on assertion #2 and attempts to correlate team performance from 2013 to 2014. We've discussed here the striking lack of consistency that a team of college football players shows from game-to-game within a season (http://www.thefroghorn.com/index.php/blog/2/entry-39-blind-squirrels-finding-acorns/). The data he shows indicates to me that, not surprisingly, the consistency doesn't improve when you add the variables of player and leadership turnover from season-to-season into the mix: Feng looks at this data set and sees evidence of "strong persistence" from season-to-season in team performance. However, take away the diagonal line which biases the mind toward seeing a correlation in a blob of data points where, at best, only a very weak correlation exists, and I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that data set "strongly" shows anything. "Strong" correlation would show a concentration of data points on or near that diagonal line instead of a blob of points that is ever-so-slightly skewed in the direction of correlation. The fact that the data set IS such a random scattering tells me that the correlation of the previous season's results to the upcoming season's results is very weak and that the 70% prediction rate claimed is due to the high count of "body bag" games where a many teams on the top right portion of that chart play teams on the bottom left. Thing 2: Predicting Turnovers Nothing will split the nu-skool college football analytics advocate from the old-school football fan/writer than the randomness of the turnover. Both camps agree on the importance of the turnover on the outcome of the game (http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/23/4649718/college-football-turnover-margin-winning-percentage), but the two sides strongly disagree on the ability a team has to generate turnovers (and prevent their own) by either sheer will or strength of play. Analytics will tell you without equivocation that turnover margin is one of the most random metrics from season-to-season you can find (http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/, http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/general/79-examining-luck-in-nfl-turnovers). Teams, even those in the NFL which possess far more season-to-season roster cohesiveness than college teams, do not have the ability to maintain high turnover margins consistently. (The one exception to this has been the recent vintage Patriots who have consistently not fumbled at a level far exceeding any other team in the league, evidence used by many that they have, at minimum, uniquely discovered some competitive advantage, and most probably that they are cheating. http://www.wsj.com/articles/patriots-always-keep-a-tight-grip-on-the-ball-1422054846) Feng here presents one of the few instances of evidence for some modicum of predictability in turnovers that I've seen in the correlation between quarterback accuracy and interception rate: Even here, the correlation isn't rock-solid, but it is weakly there, and as Feng states: Correlation doesn't imply causation, but it's reasonable to think that less accurate quarterbacks tend to throw more interceptions. Sometimes an errant quarterback throws the ball at his receiver's ankles, other times it goes to the other team.. The randomness and unpredictability of turnovers is why I don't use turnover margin explicitly in DUSHEE, although it is there in its impact on point margin. There is no question that turnovers have a strong impact on point margin. And it is, in part, why you see so much variability in a team's performance from game-to-game and season-to-season. Thing 3: Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency While in most respects I fall into the nu-skool analytics camp, the focus on efficiency, or looking at statistics on a per-play basis, is not one with which I am fully on board. First and foremost, the game is not played on a per-play basis, it is played on a per-game basis. If you are a successful grind-it-out, huddle-up, milk-the-clock kind of offense and can keep the opponent's offense off the field, you will be viewed poorly on an efficiency basis. In my mind, if you put 500 yards of total offense against an opponent, not only doesn't it matter whether it took you 50 or 80 plays to do it, it might actually be preferable in some cases to do it in 80 plays (i.e., less "efficiently") because you are helping out your defense more by keeping them off the field and giving the opposing offenses fewer opportunities to score. This was always the failing of the run-and-shoot offenses of the Jerry Glanville era. Yes they moved the ball and scored lots of points quickly (read, efficiently) but they also kept their defenses on the field for lots of plays. This was the raison d'être for Gary Patterson offenses prior to the Meachum/Cumbie era and a pretty successful one ... grind it out, score points in a methodical fashion, don't put your defense in bad situations. So, from a performance evaluation standpoint, I'm still not convinced that the per-game basis is not more indicative of a team's quality than the per-play basis. Whither DUSHEE So, I don't think Dr. Feng has convinced me that any of this portends any necessary changes to DUSHEE for the upcoming season. However, one significant factor that DUSHEE should account for but doesn't is the effect of home field. As it currently stands, DUSHEE does not distinguish between performance at home versus away, though pretty much any analytical approach shows a clear advantage (usually 3-5 points) to playing at home. As of this writing, I still haven't formulated how I want to change DUSHEE to account for it, but I have decided I need to come up with some basis for doing so. Stay tuned ...

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

FINAL 2014 DUSHEE Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Ohio St. 29.65 213.64 30.20 2 TCU 29.18 186.04 28.54 3 Alabama 25.58 194.32 26.54 4 Michigan St. 24.08 207.86 26.21 5 Oregon 26.33 153.90 25.07 6 Marshall 23.66 171.29 24.14 7 Baylor 21.34 199.49 23.97 8 Georgia 23.78 130.48 22.23 9 Auburn 18.64 162.62 20.37 10 Mississippi 20.30 126.72 19.72 ______________________________________ 11 Wisconsin 14.54 182.51 18.61 12 Mississippi St. 18.12 107.03 17.31 13 Georgia Tech 18.20 104.56 17.24 14 Arkansas 16.65 112.39 16.59 15 Boise St. 14.18 115.08 15.07 16 Oklahoma 13.91 105.78 14.44 17 Nebraska 14.16 89.60 13.81 18 Clemson 12.00 117.58 13.74 19 UCLA 12.18 103.52 13.18 20 LSU 12.89 93.37 13.16 ________________________________________ 21 Kansas St. 14.07 73.83 12.99 22 Stanford 11.19 102.34 12.46 23 Louisiana Tech 15.60 39.47 12.33 24 USC 13.03 71.91 12.20 25 Miami (FL) 7.85 121.66 11.17 26 Florida St. 11.22 67.17 10.76 27 Louisville 8.63 87.21 10.02 28 Missouri 9.73 36.52 8.27 29 Arizona 10.09 24.40 7.92 30 West Virginia 4.95 88.03 7.60 _______________________________________ 31 Arizona St. 9.85 12.53 7.18 32 Memphis 9.59 10.44 6.91 33 Tennessee 8.09 29.24 6.82 34 Notre Dame 5.62 60.97 6.72 35 Florida 7.95 27.61 6.65 36 Minnesota 6.94 38.64 6.52 37 Virginia Tech 7.03 31.96 6.25 38 Georgia Southern 5.34 54.26 6.21 39 East Carolina 1.14 111.06 6.19 40 Boston Coll. 5.17 55.36 6.15 ________________________________________ 41 BYU 5.85 37.89 5.75 42 Cincinnati 5.86 29.57 5.35 43 Penn St. 3.04 66.26 5.27 44 Colorado St. 5.16 18.08 4.32 45 Pittsburgh 1.88 61.25 4.24 46 Utah 6.49 -2.92 4.18 47 Texas A&M 5.66 -2.53 3.65 48 Virginia 1.71 49.97 3.58 49 UCF 2.15 36.85 3.23 50 West. Kentucky 3.83 13.76 3.23 _________________________________________ 51 Navy 2.81 23.28 3.01 52 South Carolina 3.04 18.96 2.95 53 Utah St. 3.92 2.20 2.72 54 Arkansas St. 1.14 33.17 2.38 55 Michigan 0.70 34.78 2.16 56 Toledo 0.55 33.94 2.03 57 Iowa 0.02 34.97 1.72 58 N.C. State 0.56 26.45 1.66 59 Houston 0.74 14.10 1.18 60 UAB 1.18 3.33 0.95 ______________________________________ 61 Appalachian State -2.56 50.82 0.77 62 Air Force 3.36 -31.68 0.69 63 W. Michigan 1.27 -4.71 0.61 64 Washington 3.39 -37.94 0.41 65 Duke 4.41 -55.32 0.24 66 Texas -0.39 7.07 0.08 67 San Diego St. -2.81 10.66 -1.35 68 Northern Illinois -1.06 -16.11 -1.49 69 LA Lafayette -1.25 -21.23 -1.87 70 Washington St. -7.42 55.86 -2.22 ______________________________________ 71 Rice -2.54 -15.56 -2.45 72 Northwestern -3.32 -6.25 -2.52 73 California -3.13 -19.51 -3.04 74 Cent. Michigan -4.72 -3.64 -3.32 75 Nevada -0.22 -75.63 -3.84 76 Rutgers -3.90 -26.43 -3.89 77 Temple -1.24 -69.15 -4.21 78 Kentucky -4.10 -39.19 -4.65 79 Syracuse -6.51 -10.00 -4.83 80 Texas St. -6.12 -25.13 -5.31 ______________________________________ 81 Oregon St. -6.15 -25.51 -5.34 82 UTEP -6.38 -29.74 -5.71 83 Middle Tenn. St. -4.58 -54.48 -5.71 84 Oklahoma St. -3.91 -64.15 -5.74 85 Colorado -7.80 -15.11 -5.94 86 Maryland -3.29 -83.08 -6.25 87 North Carolina -5.85 -48.44 -6.27 88 Illinois -5.16 -69.03 -6.81 89 South Alabama -7.68 -40.55 -7.10 90 Texas Tech -9.99 -10.81 -7.19 ________________________________________ 91 Buffalo -9.61 -17.51 -7.26 92 Ohio -8.67 -32.56 -7.37 93 Purdue -7.73 -50.45 -7.61 94 LA Monroe -10.16 -49.68 -9.20 95 Florida Intl. -6.50 -103.93 -9.41 96 Akron -9.49 -63.54 -9.43 97 Old Dominion -10.26 -53.18 -9.43 98 Ball St. -4.75 -128.59 -9.45 99 Indiana -9.65 -68.75 -9.79 100 Miami (OH) -9.89 -68.36 -9.93 ________________________________________ 101 Wyoming -12.13 -51.22 -10.59 102 Bowling Green -9.73 -88.53 -10.81 103 San Jose St. -17.00 9.16 -10.88 104 Tulane -13.79 -35.87 -10.95 105 Fresno St. -11.52 -94.40 -12.29 106 Hawaii -11.77 -93.41 -12.41 107 Idaho -15.41 -49.86 -12.71 108 Florida Atlantic -11.95 -108.87 -13.28 109 Massachusetts -14.01 -81.68 -13.33 110 UT-San Antonio -12.14 -116.79 -13.79 __________________________________________ 111 Army -12.51 -116.42 -14.03 112 Iowa St. -12.97 -119.07 -14.46 113 New Mexico -11.40 -148.12 -14.84 114 South Florida -13.07 -133.07 -15.21 115 Southern Miss -15.20 -104.97 -15.26 116 Kansas -14.49 -127.85 -15.91 117 Tulsa -17.25 -104.74 -16.62 118 Kent St. -15.43 -133.62 -16.81 119 Troy -18.81 -110.89 -17.95 120 Connecticut -18.69 -120.38 -18.34 ____________________________________________ 121 Wake Forest -13.43 -192.10 -18.34 122 Vanderbilt -17.97 -131.01 -18.38 123 North Texas -17.66 -142.66 -18.74 124 UNLV -19.83 -156.42 -20.86 125 New Mexico St. -23.53 -149.07 -22.97 126 Georgia State -24.41 -145.18 -23.37 127 East. Michigan -29.10 -220.61 -30.18 128 SMU -29.72 -226.87 -30.90 By Conference Rank Team PD YD Score 32 Memphis 9.59 10.44 6.91 39 East Carolina 1.14 111.06 6.19 42 Cincinnati 5.86 29.57 5.35 49 UCF 2.15 36.85 3.23 59 Houston 0.74 14.10 1.18 77 Temple -1.24 -69.15 -4.21 114 South Florida -13.07 -133.07 -15.21 117 Tulsa -17.25 -104.74 -16.62 120 Connecticut -18.69 -120.38 -18.34 128 SMU -29.72 -226.87 -30.90 ________________________________________ 13 Georgia Tech 18.20 104.56 17.24 18 Clemson 12.00 117.58 13.74 25 Miami (FL) 7.85 121.66 11.17 26 Florida St. 11.22 67.17 10.76 27 Louisville 8.63 87.21 10.02 37 Virginia Tech 7.03 31.96 6.25 40 Boston Coll. 5.17 55.36 6.15 45 Pittsburgh 1.88 61.25 4.24 48 Virginia 1.71 49.97 3.58 58 N.C. State 0.56 26.45 1.66 65 Duke 4.41 -55.32 0.24 79 Syracuse -6.51 -10.00 -4.83 87 North Carolina -5.85 -48.44 -6.27 121 Wake Forest -13.43 -192.10 -18.34 _________________________________________ 1 Ohio St. 29.65 213.64 30.20 4 Michigan St. 24.08 207.86 26.21 11 Wisconsin 14.54 182.51 18.61 17 Nebraska 14.16 89.60 13.81 36 Minnesota 6.94 38.64 6.52 43 Penn St. 3.04 66.26 5.27 55 Michigan 0.70 34.78 2.16 57 Iowa 0.02 34.97 1.72 72 Northwestern -3.32 -6.25 -2.52 76 Rutgers -3.90 -26.43 -3.89 86 Maryland -3.29 -83.08 -6.25 88 Illinois -5.16 -69.03 -6.81 93 Purdue -7.73 -50.45 -7.61 99 Indiana -9.65 -68.75 -9.79 ____________________________________________ 2 TCU 29.18 186.04 28.54 7 Baylor 21.34 199.49 23.97 16 Oklahoma 13.91 105.78 14.44 21 Kansas St. 14.07 73.83 12.99 30 West Virginia 4.95 88.03 7.60 66 Texas -0.39 7.07 0.08 84 Oklahoma St. -3.91 -64.15 -5.74 90 Texas Tech -9.99 -10.81 -7.19 112 Iowa St. -12.97 -119.07 -14.46 116 Kansas -14.49 -127.85 -15.91 __________________________________________ 6 Marshall 23.66 171.29 24.14 23 Louisiana Tech 15.60 39.47 12.33 50 West. Kentucky 3.83 13.76 3.23 60 UAB 1.18 3.33 0.95 71 Rice -2.54 -15.56 -2.45 82 UTEP -6.38 -29.74 -5.71 83 Middle Tenn. St. -4.58 -54.48 -5.71 95 Florida Intl. -6.50 -103.93 -9.41 97 Old Dominion -10.26 -53.18 -9.43 104 Tulane -13.79 -35.87 -10.95 108 Florida Atlantic -11.95 -108.87 -13.28 110 UT-San Antonio -12.14 -116.79 -13.79 115 Southern Miss -15.20 -104.97 -15.26 123 North Texas -17.66 -142.66 -18.74 ___________________________________________ 34 Notre Dame 5.62 60.97 6.72 41 BYU 5.85 37.89 5.75 51 Navy 2.81 23.28 3.01 111 Army -12.51 -116.42 -14.03 ___________________________________________ 56 Toledo 0.55 33.94 2.03 63 W. Michigan 1.27 -4.71 0.61 68 Northern Illinois -1.06 -16.11 -1.49 74 Cent. Michigan -4.72 -3.64 -3.32 91 Buffalo -9.61 -17.51 -7.26 92 Ohio -8.67 -32.56 -7.37 96 Akron -9.49 -63.54 -9.43 98 Ball St. -4.75 -128.59 -9.45 100 Miami (OH) -9.89 -68.36 -9.93 102 Bowling Green -9.73 -88.53 -10.81 109 Massachusetts -14.01 -81.68 -13.33 118 Kent St. -15.43 -133.62 -16.81 127 East. Michigan -29.10 -220.61 -30.18 ________________________________________________ 15 Boise St. 14.18 115.08 15.07 44 Colorado St. 5.16 18.08 4.32 53 Utah St. 3.92 2.20 2.72 62 Air Force 3.36 -31.68 0.69 67 San Diego St. -2.81 10.66 -1.35 75 Nevada -0.22 -75.63 -3.84 101 Wyoming -12.13 -51.22 -10.59 103 San Jose St. -17.00 9.16 -10.88 105 Fresno St. -11.52 -94.40 -12.29 106 Hawaii -11.77 -93.41 -12.41 113 New Mexico -11.40 -148.12 -14.84 124 UNLV -19.83 -156.42 -20.86 _________________________________________________ 5 Oregon 26.33 153.90 25.07 19 UCLA 12.18 103.52 13.18 22 Stanford 11.19 102.34 12.46 24 USC 13.03 71.91 12.20 29 Arizona 10.09 24.40 7.92 31 Arizona St. 9.85 12.53 7.18 46 Utah 6.49 -2.92 4.18 64 Washington 3.39 -37.94 0.41 70 Washington St. -7.42 55.86 -2.22 73 California -3.13 -19.51 -3.04 81 Oregon St. -6.15 -25.51 -5.34 85 Colorado -7.80 -15.11 -5.94 _________________________________________________ 38 Georgia Southern 5.34 54.26 6.21 54 Arkansas St. 1.14 33.17 2.38 61 Appalachian State -2.56 50.82 0.77 69 LA Lafayette -1.25 -21.23 -1.87 80 Texas St. -6.12 -25.13 -5.31 89 South Alabama -7.68 -40.55 -7.10 94 LA Monroe -10.16 -49.68 -9.20 107 Idaho -15.41 -49.86 -12.71 119 Troy -18.81 -110.89 -17.95 125 New Mexico St. -23.53 -149.07 -22.97 126 Georgia State -24.41 -145.18 -23.37 ___________________________________________________ 3 Alabama 25.58 194.32 26.54 8 Georgia 23.78 130.48 22.23 9 Auburn 18.64 162.62 20.37 10 Mississippi 20.30 126.72 19.72 12 Mississippi St. 18.12 107.03 17.31 14 Arkansas 16.65 112.39 16.59 20 LSU 12.89 93.37 13.16 28 Missouri 9.73 36.52 8.27 33 Tennessee 8.09 29.24 6.82 35 Florida 7.95 27.61 6.65 47 Texas A&M 5.66 -2.53 3.65 52 South Carolina 3.04 18.96 2.95 78 Kentucky -4.10 -39.19 -4.65 122 Vanderbilt -17.97 -131.01 -18.38

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE beat Vegas! (barely)

A few have asked how DUSHEE did picking the bowl games this year and the answer is a mixed bag. Historically, DUSHEE has done very well picking bowl winners while the regular season was more sketchy. (Since most of the documentation of prior DUSHEE success was cataloged on kf.c, you'll have to take my word for it or see if you can find it over there.) This year, DUSHEE wasn't really much better in the bowls than it was in the regular season, which is to say, not that great. Using the same ESPN 'confidence points' technique used by our esteemed panel of college football experts, DUSHEE would have garnered 422 points, which would have placed him sixth out of nine. DUSHEE's top 10 confidence picks, based on the largest differentials in the teams' DUSHEE scores were: Bowl | Winner Score1 DUSH1 | Loser Score2 DUSH2 | ActualPM DUSHPredPM DUSHConfidence Boca Raton | Marshall 52 21.66 | Northern Illinois 23 -1.75 | 29 23.41 38 Heart of Dallas | Louisiana Tech 35 12.97 | Illinois 18 -6.47 | 17 19.44 37 Foster Farms | Stanford 45 10.77 | Maryland 21 -4.17 | 24 14.94 36 Texas | Arkansas 31 15 | Texas 7 2.64 | 24 12.36 35 Rose | (3) Oregon 59 23.33 | (2) Florida State 20 12.06 | 39 11.27 34 Independence | South Carolina 24 2.42 | Miami (FL) 21 12.27 | 3 -9.85 33 Belk | (13) Georgia 37 19.1 | (20) Louisville 14 10.67 | 23 8.43 32 Fiesta | (21) Boise State 38 15.34 | (12) Arizona 30 7.43 | 8 7.91 31 Cactus | Oklahoma State 30 -5.84 | Washington 22 2.05 | 8 -7.89 30 Las Vegas | (23) Utah 45 0.26 | Colorado State 10 8.02 | 35 -7.76 29 The games in red, DUSHEE missed: the Independence where an expected 10 point Miami win (DUSHPredPM stands for DUSHEE Predicted Point Margin) was a 3 pt win for South Carolina, the Cactus where an expected 8 point win for Washington was an 8 point win for Oklahoma State, and the Las Vegas bowl where an expected 8 point win for Colorado State was a 35 point win for Utah. Not surprisingly, the Las Vegas Bowl was the game DUSHEE missed by the most, reality deviating from expectation by almost 43 points. The 5 games that deviated from expectation the most were: Bowl | Winner Score1 DUSH1 | Loser Score2 DUSH2 | DUSHDiff Las Vegas | (23) Utah 45 0.26 | Colorado State 10 8.02 | 42.76 Russell Athletic | (18) Clemson 40 10.5 | Oklahoma 6 16.26 | 39.76 Peach | (6) Texas Christian 42 24.67 | (9) Mississippi 3 21.94 | 36.27 Rose | (3) Oregon 59 23.33 | (2) Florida State 20 12.06 | 27.73 GoDaddy | Toledo 63 0.26 | Arkansas State 44 3.11 | 21.85 It is interesting to note that DUSHEE predicted the correct winner in 2 of the 5 games (Peach and Rose) but predicted much closer games than the blowouts that occurred. In total, DUSHEE picked 21 out of 39 bowls winners correctly, barely getting half right. Mediocre, by definition. Although DUSHEE did predict the correct winner in 6 of the 7 "New Years Day 6" plus MNC games, missing only Georgia Tech's upset of Mississippi State in the Orange. However, DUSHEE was less mediocre than Vegas, meaning if I'd had the courage to actually put some money on DUSHEE, I would have done decently. Taking the spreads from TeamRankings.com (not being a gambler, I don't know if that is a reputable source for spreads or not) and setting those spreads as Vegas' expected point margin, Sin City's confidence picks look slightly worse than DUSHEE's, earning 418.5 points (compared to DUSHEE's 422), the half confidence point coming from the fact that Vegas only gives lines with a precision of 0.5 points so that there are often multiple games with the same point spreads. For instance, there were 6 bowls tied for 8th most confident with a point spread of 7. Thus, instead of randomly assigning those games confidence points ranging from 32 to 27 (corresponding with the 8th through 13th most confident picks) all the games were assigned an average confidence of 28.5. Vegas missed on 4 of their most confident 13 picks, colored in red: Bowl | Winner Score1 Loser Score2 | VegasPredPM Foster Farms | Stanford 45 Maryland 21 | 14 New Mexico| Utah State 21 Texas-El Paso 6 | 9.5 Boca Raton | Marshall 52 Northern Illinois 23 | 8.5 Music City | Notre Dame 31 (22) | Louisiana State 28 | -8 Rose | (3) Oregon 59 (2) Florida State 20 | 7.5 Sugar | (5) Ohio State 42 (1) Alabama 35 | -7.5 Sun | (15) Arizona State 36 Duke 31 | 7.5 Cactus | Oklahoma State 30 Washington 22 | -7 Belk | (13) Georgia 37 (20) Louisville 14 | 7 Texas | Arkansas 31 Texas 7 | 7 Birmingham | Florida 28 East Carolina 20 | 7 Holiday | (24) Southern California 45 (25) Nebraska 42 | 7 Outback | (17) Wisconsin 34 (19) Auburn 31 | -7 DUSHEE and Vegas agreed on 6 of the 10 Bowls selected for higest confidence (Foster Farms, Boca Raton, Rose, Cactus, Belk, and Texas) and both missed on one of those 6, Oklahoma State's upset of Washington in the Cactus. Both DUSHEE and Vegas got the other 5 correct and the 5 favorites in those games won by an average of 4 TDs, easily covering the spread in each case. Vegas' most spectacular miss was the Russel Athletic Bowl (DUSHEE's 2nd worst miss) where the 6 point favorite Sooners were beaten by Clemson by 34, a 40 point miss. All told, Vegas expected the correct winner in only 18 of the 39 games (compared to DUSHEE's 21 of 39). So keep that in mind the next time you hear someone argue that we should just let Vegas determine the college football playoff rankings. Vegas and DUSHEE both correctly predicted 14 games and both incorrectly predicted 14 games. DUSHEE correctly predicted 7 games that Vegas didn't: Bowl | Winner Score1 Loser Score2 | ActualPM DUSHPredPM VegasPredPM Fiesta | (21) Boise State 38 (12) Arizona 30 | 8 7.91 -3 Poinsettia | Navy 17 San Diego State 16 | 1 4.94 -3.5 MNC | (4) Ohio State 42 (2) Oregon 20 | 22 2.60 -5.5 Cotton | (7) Michigan State 42 (4) Baylor 41 | 1 2.33 -2.5 Sugar | (5) Ohio State 42 (1) Alabama 35 | 7 1.45 -7.5 Quick Lane | Rutgers 40 North Carolina 21 | 19 0.47 -3.5 Military | Virginia Tech 33 Cincinnati 17 | 16 0.34 -2.5 For whatever it's worth, and I don't think it's worth much as I think it's all pretty random, DUSHEE did a better job picking winners in the big games, getting 4 of the "New Years 6" plus the MNC right where Vegas missed (Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar). In particular, DUSHEE had Boise as a substantial favorite against Arizona and nailed the outcome almost exactly. Blind squirrel finds acorn. On the flip side, Vegas got 4 games that DUSHEE missed: Bowl | Winner Score1 Loser Score2 | ActualPM DUSHPredPM VegasPredPM Citrus | (16) Missouri 33 Minnesota 17 | 16 -0.82 4.5 Holiday | (24) Southern California 45 (25) Nebraska 42 | 3 -2.68 7 GoDaddy | Toledo 63 Arkansas State 44 | 19 -2.85 3.5 Las Vegas | (23) Utah 45 Colorado State 10 | 35 -7.76 2.5 Finally, let's look at how DUSHEE would have done if we'd used it to pick games against the spread. If the DUSHEE Predicted Point Difference was larger than the Vegas point spread and the team DUSHEE favored covered, DUSHEE covers. If the DUSHEE Predicted Point Difference was less than the point spread and the Team DUSHEE didn't favor did not cover, DUSHEE covers. Using this scheme, DUSHEE went 23-16 against the spread during the bowl season. Better than it did straight-up. Go figure. Just goes to show, the "experts" in Vegas can't control random noise any better than anybody else.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE's Take on the CFP, TCU, and the Peach Bowl

In case you hadn't stewed on the outcome of the CFP enough, here comes DUSHEE to try and shed at least a little light on what happened to the Frogs and college football in general over the last few weeks. First, here are the critical DUSHEE numbers for each of the top 6 in the CFP final rankings for each FBS game played: Alabama Opp: WVU FAU USM| Fla Miss Ark | A&M Tenn LSU | MissSt Aub Mizz PD: 14.00 33.36 23.70 | 29.22 8.50 8.60 | 66.40 16.30 15.50 | 23.90 21.40 36.91 YD: 247.40 413.45 170.40 | 578.00 179.90 -93.90 | 435.10 84.30 112.00 | -3.20 2.10 239.09 Score: 21.33 42.29 24.06 | 47.51 14.39 1.18 | 65.37 14.95 15.76 | 15.78 14.37 36.20 Best games: A&M (65.37), Fla (47.51) Worst Games: Ark (1.18), Aub (14.37) Oregon Opp: MichSt Wyo WSU | Zona UCLA Wash | Cal Stan Utah | Col OreSt Zona PD: 44.90 22.80 -4.20 | 0.42 19.00 34.27 | 13.90 39.00 27.00 | 25.64 22.20 49.17 YD: 241.50 64.30 58.70 | -40.00 -19.73 242.55 | -17.30 188.00 13.40 | 381.36 180.60 438.83 Score:41.64 18.32 0.05 | -1.66 11.71 34.61 | 8.43 35.12 18.65 | 35.58 23.56 54.06 Best games: Zona 2 (54.06), MichSt (41.64) Worst games: Zona 1 (-1.66), WSU (0.05) Florida State Opp: OkSt Clem NCSU | Wake Syr ND | L'ville Uva MiaFl | BC Fla GaTech PD: -0.60 15.00 15.70 | 28.50 11.00 8.45 | 22.10 14.30 7.70 | 6.80 11.44 14.55 YD: 33.80 13.80 14.20 | 174.60 73.10 -107.55 | 185.60 165.50 9.70 | 129.50 68.00 95.91 Score: 1.24 10.67 11.16 | 27.47 10.88 0.42 | 23.73 17.56 5.60 | 10.81 10.93 14.35 Best games: Wake (27.47), L'ville (23.73) Worst games: ND (0.42), OkSt (1.24) Ohio State Opp: Navy VaTech KentSt | Cin Mary Rut | PSU Ill MichSt | Minn Ind Mich | Wisc PD: 19.40 -14.40 58.70 | 33.45 26.50 35.20 | 9.91 35.20 37.20 | 12.60 5.40 13.64 | 78.55 YD: 32.30 21.30 419.60 | 315.27 126.10 192.70 | 121.27 206.30 249.20 | 203.50 66.70 68.64 | 513.09 Score: 14.50 -8.57 59.48 | 37.59 23.78 32.81 | 12.49 33.47 36.88 | 18.27 6.83 12.42 | 77.24 Best games: Wisc (77.24), KentSt (59.48) Worst games: VaTech (-8.57), Ind (6.83) Baylor Opp: SMU Buf ISU | Tex TCU WVU | Kan OU OkSt |Ttech KSU PD: 16.09 43.38 6.30 | 22.18 31.70 -12.40 | 31.50 52.55 15.90 | -11.40 25.10 YD: 301.09 327.75 126.90 | 72.27 506.00 -63.90 | 241.30 353.00 110.80 | -215.50 258.80 Score: 25.33 44.81 10.35 | 18.29 45.67 -11.37 | 32.70 52.15 15.97 | -18.05 29.28 Best games: TCU (45.67), Buf (44.81) Worst games: TTech (-18.05), WVU (-11.37) TCU Opp: Minn SMU OU| Bay OkSt Ttech | WVU KSU Kan | Tex ISU: PD: 30.20 28.09 19.82 | 19.90 29.10 46.90 | 4.10 36.10 -14.70 | 40.73 40.40 YD: 174.90 150.55 115.18 | -121.90 370.40 338.90 | 123.10 217.00 -97.50 | 97.36 373.30 Score: 28.61 26.03 18.80 | 7.36 37.36 47.70 | 8.70 34.59 -14.53 | 31.87 45.04 Best games: TTech (47.70), ISU (45.04) Worst games: Kan (-14.53), Bay (7.36) To reiterate, a PD or YD of 0 in a particular game means that the team performed as well against that opponent as the average team did in terms of points and yards, respectively. A PD of 10 means the team was roughly 10 points better against that opponent than the average team was, a YD of 100 means the team outgained the opponent by 100 more yards than the average team did. Negative differentials mean the team performed worse than the average team. And the Score is the PD adjusted by the YD based on how much the YD deviates from a typical performance given the team's PD. Alabama played like an average team (Score between +/-7) once -- against Arkansas. Even in their loss to Ole Miss, they were still 2 touchdowns better against Mississippi than the average team was. Oregon played like an average team twice -- against Arizona the first time and against Washington State. Florida State was average three times (Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, and Miami). Ohio State was average once (Indiana) and significantly below average once (Virginia Tech). The same could be said for TCU (Kansas the significantly below average performance)., although technically their "average" performance against Bayloy fell just above the +/-7 range. Baylor, notably, was well below average twice, both in their loss to WVU and against Tech ... in fact DUSHEE rated the performance against Tech as almost a touchdown worse than their performance against WVU. The flip side of the worst loss coin is the best win. In this category, Florida State was a clear underperformer. While all of the other 5 schools in the top six had at least two games with DUSHEE scores over 40, FSU's best performance of the year was a 27.47 score against Wake Forest, a 43-3 win in week 6. Florida State only had two games all season with a score above 20; meanwhile TCU and Ohio State had 7 and Baylor, Alabama, and Oregon had 6, , Both Alabama an Ohio State had, as discussed in previous posts, historically high DUSHEE scores in individual games, Alabama a 65.37 score against Texas A&M and Ohio State a 77.24 against Wisconsin. Both games were certainly outliers for both teams. Conference Strength The strength of a conference is up for considerable interpretation. If you take the average of all the strengths of teams in your conference, DUSHEE rates out the conferences this way: SEC 9.75 B10 4.94 B12 4.80 P10 4.77 ACC 4.07 MWC -4.39 CUSA -4.71 AAC -6.00 MAC -8.97 SBC -9.54 By this metric, the SEC was the best conference by a considerable margin; perhaps the best way of interpreting this is by saying the average SEC team was roughly 5-6 points better than the average B1G, Big 12, Pac 10, or ACC team. And there wasn't a significant difference between the average teams in the rest of the "Power 5" conferences. I suspect such an assessment will be controversial on this board where the notion that the Big 12 was one of, if not THE, best conference and that the Big 10 was the worst. Based on team averaged performance, such a notion is disputable. Although the way in which each conference arrived at the same average was a little different. The Big 12 was all over the map. Half of the conference was ranked 30 or better, with 4 teams in the top 20 and 2 in the top 10. Three teams could be placed in the average category: Texas, Oklahoma State, and Tech (barely); and two teams were awful: Kansas and Iowa State. The Big 12 was the only "Power 5" conference to have two teams rated 100 or worse. 3 TCU 25.51 158.30 24.68 6 Baylor 20.08 183.50 22.29 13 Oklahoma 16.35 110.62 16.27 17 Kansas St. 14.92 82.68 13.95 28 West Virginia 6.62 103.69 9.44 51 Texas 1.64 31.93 2.64 88 Oklahoma St. -4.04 -65.02 -5.85 90 Texas Tech -9.36 -7.34 -6.60 110 Iowa St. -12.27 -113.89 -13.70 116 Kansas -13.70 -123.10 -15.10 The ACC had 5 teams ranked 32 or better, but none higher than 14. Then they had a large core of 8 average(using the same +/-7 metric) teams and really only one really bad team -- Wake. The ACC was largely competent but not spectacular. Nobody that really should have been in consideration for the CFP but really only one terrible team. 14 Georgia Tech 15.85 101.75 15.50 21 Miami (FL) 9.50 122.58 12.28 22 Florida St. 12.91 71.35 12.07 26 Louisville 9.32 92.09 10.68 27 Clemson 8.30 102.64 10.51 32 Boston Coll. 5.79 63.76 6.95 40 Virginia Tech 5.61 47.46 6.04 45 Virginia 2.59 56.24 4.46 47 Pittsburgh 1.71 63.17 4.20 62 N.C. State -0.33 13.53 0.43 65 Duke 4.18 -54.43 0.15 78 Syracuse -5.82 -4.75 -4.11 79 North Carolina -3.59 -36.53 -4.17 121 Wake Forest -13.18 -189.43 -17.97 DUSHEE was generally far more impressed with the Big 10 and far less impressed with the Pac 12 (particularly at the top) than most other college football pundits and rankers. The Pac 12 had one really good team (Oregon), three teams at the very bottom of the top 25, and everyone else in the conference fits in the average category. The Pac 12 was the sole conference without one truly awful team (ranked 100 or worse). 5 Oregon 24.51 144.35 23.34 23 UCLA 11.13 92.78 11.92 24 Stanford 9.48 95.02 10.93 25 USC 11.60 65.33 10.90 31 Arizona 10.09 14.58 7.43 35 Arizona St. 8.44 12.92 6.25 57 Washington 4.82 -23.99 2.05 64 Utah 2.68 -31.40 0.26 71 Washington St. -7.50 55.46 -2.31 72 California -2.71 -17.30 -2.65 85 Oregon St. -6.18 -25.72 -5.37 86 Colorado -7.31 -13.15 -5.51 Meanwhile the B1G, was pretty evenly distributed. DUSHEE had both Ohio State and Michigan State as elite, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Minnesota as solid, 8 average teams, and one really bad team (Indiana). 1 Ohio St. 27.03 195.07 27.48 4 Michigan St. 22.57 197.16 24.61 12 Wisconsin 14.24 168.93 17.68 19 Nebraska 14.07 86.68 13.58 30 Minnesota 8.48 43.36 7.76 44 Penn St. 3.10 59.92 4.98 48 Iowa 2.11 40.95 3.39 54 Michigan 0.79 35.23 2.24 70 Northwestern -2.46 -4.44 -1.85 75 Rutgers -4.31 -18.55 -3.77 80 Maryland -1.29 -68.27 -4.17 89 Illinois -4.06 -77.75 -6.48 91 Purdue -6.70 -46.48 -6.72 100 Indiana -9.47 -67.32 -9.58 In particular, let's look at Wisconsin's season since their assault at the hands of Ohio State probably prevented a Big 12 entrant into the CFP: Opp: LSU BGSU USF| Nwstern Ill Mary | Rut Pur Neb | Iowa Minn OhSt PD: 3.40 47.00 6.40 | -10.90 1.10 45.20 | 33.00 8.20 52.90 | 6.50 15.90 -37.83 YD:-1.30 438.91 107.10 | 14.80 104.00 263.60 | 199.30 193.60 575.00 | 68.20 193.60 -129.67 Score: 2.20 52.62 9.46| -6.55 5.78 42.92 | 31.66 14.85 63.15 | 7.64 19.99 -31.51 Wisconsin had two epically big games against Nebraska (59-24) and Bowling Green (68-17, keeping in mind that Bowling Green, while nonetheless a bad team, was still a bad team who played for the MAC championship) and two other very strong performances against Maryland (52-7) and Rutgers (37-0). Outside of the Ohio State debachle, Wisconsin's worst performance was the loss to Northwestern (14-20) and average performances against LSU, Illinois, and Iowa. Prior to the Ohio State game, DUSHEE had Wisconsin ranked 5th and dropped them to 12th after. At this point in the season, moving seven spots in the poll, particularly at the top or bottom, is a big jump. Each game is only 1/12 of each team's ranking. Largely on the strength of that loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin was the 2nd most inconsistent team in the country with a standard deviation of 26.4 points, behind Louisiana Tech. That means that Wisconsin was as likely to obtain a DUSHEE score of 45 as it was a score of -7. Based on the metrics used by DUSHEE, the B1G wasn't an inferior conference and Ohio State was a really good team. Doesn't make TCU's drop from 3rd to 6th any less sucky. But an argument can be made that they deserved to be in; moreso than can be made for Florida State, certainly. Strength of Schedule If we use the same technique we use to assess conference strength, average all the opponents' season-long scores for each team, the strengths of schedule for the 6 playoff teams plus 2, we get the following: 5 Alabama 7.72 33 Florida State 3.78 39 Oregon 3.26 47 Ohio State 2.35 65 TCU 0.04 73 Baylor -1.10 This is another factor that went against the Big 12, keeping in mind that FCS opponents are ignored in the DUSHEE rankings. Minnesota meant that TCU had the next-to-worst strength of schedule compared to Baylor's worst. When accounting for both teams playing the worst team in FBS, SMU, and both playing in the conference with two teams ranked over 100, neither Baylor nor TCU's schedule come out looking all that strong. The Peach Bowl Let's take a look at Mississippi's season. Opp: Boise Vandy ULaLa | Mem Bama A&M | Tenn LSU Aub | Ark MissSt PD: 38.25 22.40 44.40 | 37.90 27.64 18.00 | 35.00 4.50 4.90 | -25.50 33.80 YD: 204.33 288.40 224.90 | 396.10 96.36 -166.60 | 205.30 -51.90 109.90 | 40.30 192.60 Score: 35.41 28.92 40.51 | 44.47 23.10 3.92 | 33.29 0.48 8.60 | -15.05 31.87 Mississippi's year appears to be a tale of two seasons. Through the Alabama victory, Ole Miss was awesome, at least 3 TD's better than the average team against everybody they played. They whipped 2 of the 3 best non-Power 5 schools (Memphis 24-3 and Boise 35-13) and then gave Alabama their only loss (23-17). Then they beat A&M but got badly outgained, whipped Tennessee, then played like an average to below average team against LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas. In the Egg Bowl, they returned to their early season form. On the year, TCU ended up 3rd in the DUSHEE rankings with a score of 24.68, while Mississippi were ranked 8th with a score of 21.41. The difference between these two scores is almost exactly the Vegas line for the game of TCU (-3). TCU was a little more consistent than Ole Miss (standard deviation of 17.9 versus 20.6). In fact, Mississippi was the 12th most inconsistent team in the country. Using these numbers and using 5000 simulated games, TCU wins 55% of the time against Ole Miss on a neautral field. Ole Miss, BTW, also had the 3rd toughest schedule in the country (9.42) behind Auburn (12.34) and Arkansas (11.04). Vandy and ULaLa are the only two below average teams Mississippi played this year. So in conclusion, DUSHEE thinks Vegas has it about right on the Peach Bowl, thinks that Ohio State wasn't really that bad of a pick, and that the Big 10 was actually a little underrated. But it also thinks TCU should have been in the playoff too ...

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season (sorta) DUSHEE Ranking

Well, the college football committee wasn't the only entity impressed by Ohio State's beatdown of Wisco. Remember when Alabama's thrashing of A&M was a historically big DUSHEE score? Much like Perrine's eclipsing Gordon's rushing record (or was it vice versa?) Ohio State's win eclipsed Alabama's(66.40 now) with a PD of 78.55. The Buckeyes were 11 TD's better against Wisconsin than the average opponent was. And with that, Ohio State lept Alabama into first. The Frogs climb to 3rd, Oregon vaults into 5th, and Baylor winds up 6th. Florida State remains in the 20s, where they've been most of the year. SMU's win wasn't quite enough to pull them ahead of Eastern Michigan. Over the next few weeks, we'll take a look at some of the bowl matchups and all the controversy that befell college football the last few weeks. The final rankings will include the Army-Navy game. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Ohio St. 27.11 195.50 27.54 2 Alabama 24.82 197.05 26.09 3 TCU 25.51 158.30 24.67 4 Michigan St. 22.57 197.16 24.60 5 Oregon 24.51 144.35 23.33 6 Baylor 20.08 183.50 22.27 7 Marshall 20.69 162.38 21.66 8 Mississippi 21.94 139.97 21.40 9 Auburn 18.68 161.85 20.29 10 Georgia 20.39 113.67 19.10 _______________________________________ 11 Mississippi St. 19.51 107.58 18.22 12 Wisconsin 14.24 168.93 17.67 13 Oklahoma 16.35 110.62 16.26 14 Georgia Tech 15.85 101.75 15.49 15 Boise St. 13.98 124.24 15.34 16 Arkansas 15.78 92.47 15.00 17 Kansas St. 14.92 82.68 13.95 18 LSU 13.53 95.33 13.64 19 Nebraska 14.07 86.68 13.58 20 Louisiana Tech 15.26 57.78 12.97 ________________________________________ 21 Miami (FL) 9.50 122.58 12.27 22 Florida St. 12.91 71.35 12.06 23 UCLA 11.13 92.78 11.92 24 USC 11.60 65.33 10.90 25 Stanford 9.33 93.87 10.77 26 Louisville 9.32 92.09 10.67 27 Clemson 8.30 102.64 10.50 28 West Virginia 6.62 103.69 9.43 29 Colorado St. 8.37 50.45 8.02 30 Minnesota 8.48 43.36 7.75 ______________________________________ 31 Arizona 10.09 14.58 7.43 32 Boston Coll. 5.79 63.76 6.95 33 Missouri 7.90 34.29 6.93 34 Notre Dame 5.31 57.14 6.31 35 Florida 6.73 37.41 6.30 36 Arizona St. 8.44 12.92 6.25 37 Memphis 9.10 3.31 6.22 38 Tennessee 7.19 29.14 6.21 39 Georgia Southern 5.29 54.72 6.18 40 Virginia Tech 5.61 47.46 6.04 _______________________________________ 41 BYU 5.72 45.08 6.00 42 Cincinnati 7.38 16.10 5.70 43 East Carolina 1.66 91.81 5.55 44 Penn St. 3.10 59.92 4.97 45 Virginia 2.59 56.24 4.45 46 UCF 3.08 46.08 4.28 47 Pittsburgh 1.71 63.17 4.20 48 Navy 4.25 28.15 4.20 49 Iowa 2.11 40.95 3.39 50 Arkansas St. 2.38 31.49 3.11 ______________________________________ 51 Texas A&M 5.34 -10.76 3.04 52 Texas 1.64 31.93 2.64 53 West. Kentucky 3.43 4.53 2.51 54 South Carolina 2.21 19.62 2.42 55 Michigan 0.79 35.23 2.23 56 Utah St. 3.19 -0.32 2.11 57 Washington 4.82 -23.99 2.05 58 W. Michigan 2.06 -5.47 1.11 59 Houston 1.04 7.34 1.05 60 UAB 1.26 3.30 1.00 _____________________________________ 61 Appalachian State -2.44 50.66 0.83 62 N.C. State -0.33 13.53 0.43 63 Utah 2.68 -31.40 0.26 64 Toledo -1.27 22.85 0.26 65 Duke 4.18 -54.43 0.15 66 Air Force 1.76 -30.51 -0.30 67 San Diego St. -2.49 18.96 -0.74 68 Nevada 1.75 -48.59 -1.19 69 Northern Illinois -0.67 -26.90 -1.75 70 Northwestern -2.46 -4.44 -1.85 ______________________________________ 71 Washington St. -7.50 55.46 -2.31 72 California -2.71 -17.30 -2.65 73 LA Lafayette -2.02 -27.66 -2.69 74 Cent. Michigan -4.95 -1.20 -3.36 75 Rutgers -4.22 -18.05 -3.69 76 Temple -0.63 -69.69 -3.80 77 Rice -4.06 -27.07 -4.02 78 Syracuse -5.82 -4.75 -4.11 79 North Carolina -3.59 -36.53 -4.16 80 Maryland -1.29 -68.27 -4.17 ______________________________________ 81 Kentucky -3.86 -35.36 -4.29 82 UTEP -5.69 -25.28 -5.02 83 Texas St. -5.91 -27.45 -5.27 84 Middle Tenn. St. -4.17 -52.15 -5.31 85 Oregon St. -6.18 -25.72 -5.36 86 South Alabama -6.29 -26.69 -5.49 87 Colorado -7.31 -13.15 -5.51 88 Oklahoma St. -4.04 -65.02 -5.84 89 Illinois -4.06 -77.75 -6.47 90 Texas Tech -9.36 -7.34 -6.60 ______________________________________ 91 Purdue -6.70 -46.48 -6.72 92 Ohio -8.36 -31.47 -7.10 93 Buffalo -9.74 -18.32 -7.38 94 LA Monroe -10.07 -51.04 -9.19 95 Ball St. -4.48 -129.01 -9.24 96 Florida Intl. -6.51 -102.20 -9.29 97 Miami (OH) -9.27 -66.75 -9.41 98 Akron -9.63 -63.42 -9.49 99 Old Dominion -10.47 -53.25 -9.56 100 Indiana -9.47 -67.32 -9.57 _____________________________________ 101 Wyoming -11.43 -43.37 -9.72 102 Fresno St. -9.27 -74.84 -9.81 103 San Jose St. -16.18 16.40 -9.99 104 Tulane -13.45 -36.37 -10.73 105 Bowling Green -9.51 -93.55 -10.87 106 Hawaii -11.35 -89.57 -11.90 107 Idaho -14.99 -47.19 -12.28 108 Florida Atlantic -11.69 -106.18 -12.93 109 Massachusetts -14.24 -82.46 -13.49 110 Iowa St. -12.27 -113.89 -13.69 ________________________________________ 111 UT-San Antonio -12.23 -118.66 -13.90 112 New Mexico -10.95 -142.94 -14.23 113 South Florida -12.49 -132.91 -14.76 114 Southern Miss -14.98 -101.83 -14.92 115 Kansas -13.70 -123.10 -15.10 116 Tulsa -16.29 -100.05 -15.71 117 Kent St. -15.50 -134.54 -16.85 118 Army -15.38 -139.21 -17.00 119 Vanderbilt -17.59 -125.89 -17.82 120 Connecticut -18.29 -120.33 -18.02 _________________________________________ 121 Troy -18.90 -113.13 -18.08 122 Wake Forest -13.37 -190.87 -18.16 123 North Texas -17.65 -140.74 -18.58 124 UNLV -19.34 -153.00 -20.30 125 New Mexico St. -23.33 -149.27 -22.79 126 Georgia State -24.57 -145.30 -23.41 127 East. Michigan -28.78 -215.92 -29.64 128 SMU -29.38 -228.80 -30.67 By conference: Rank Team PD YD Score 37 Memphis 9.10 3.31 6.22 42 Cincinnati 7.38 16.10 5.70 43 East Carolina 1.66 91.81 5.55 46 UCF 3.08 46.08 4.28 59 Houston 1.04 7.34 1.05 76 Temple -0.63 -69.69 -3.80 113 South Florida -12.49 -132.91 -14.76 116 Tulsa -16.29 -100.05 -15.71 120 Connecticut -18.29 -120.33 -18.02 128 SMU -29.38 -228.80 -30.67 ____________________________________ 14 Georgia Tech 15.85 101.75 15.49 21 Miami (FL) 9.50 122.58 12.27 22 Florida St. 12.91 71.35 12.06 26 Louisville 9.32 92.09 10.67 27 Clemson 8.30 102.64 10.50 32 Boston Coll. 5.79 63.76 6.95 40 Virginia Tech 5.61 47.46 6.04 45 Virginia 2.59 56.24 4.45 47 Pittsburgh 1.71 63.17 4.20 62 N.C. State -0.33 13.53 0.43 65 Duke 4.18 -54.43 0.15 78 Syracuse -5.82 -4.75 -4.11 79 North Carolina -3.59 -36.53 -4.16 122 Wake Forest -13.37 -190.87 -18.16 _______________________________________ 1 Ohio St. 27.11 195.50 27.54 4 Michigan St. 22.57 197.16 24.60 12 Wisconsin 14.24 168.93 17.67 19 Nebraska 14.07 86.68 13.58 30 Minnesota 8.48 43.36 7.75 44 Penn St. 3.10 59.92 4.97 49 Iowa 2.11 40.95 3.39 55 Michigan 0.79 35.23 2.23 70 Northwestern -2.46 -4.44 -1.85 75 Rutgers -4.22 -18.05 -3.69 80 Maryland -1.29 -68.27 -4.17 89 Illinois -4.06 -77.75 -6.47 91 Purdue -6.70 -46.48 -6.72 100 Indiana -9.47 -67.32 -9.57 ____________________________________ 3 TCU 25.51 158.30 24.67 6 Baylor 20.08 183.50 22.27 13 Oklahoma 16.35 110.62 16.26 17 Kansas St. 14.92 82.68 13.95 28 West Virginia 6.62 103.69 9.43 52 Texas 1.64 31.93 2.64 88 Oklahoma St. -4.04 -65.02 -5.84 90 Texas Tech -9.36 -7.34 -6.60 110 Iowa St. -12.27 -113.89 -13.69 115 Kansas -13.70 -123.10 -15.10 _______________________________________ 7 Marshall 20.69 162.38 21.66 20 Louisiana Tech 15.26 57.78 12.97 53 West. Kentucky 3.43 4.53 2.51 60 UAB 1.26 3.30 1.00 77 Rice -4.06 -27.07 -4.02 82 UTEP -5.69 -25.28 -5.02 84 Middle Tenn. St. -4.17 -52.15 -5.31 96 Florida Intl. -6.51 -102.20 -9.29 99 Old Dominion -10.47 -53.25 -9.56 104 Tulane -13.45 -36.37 -10.73 108 Florida Atlantic -11.69 -106.18 -12.93 111 UT-San Antonio -12.23 -118.66 -13.90 114 Southern Miss -14.98 -101.83 -14.92 123 North Texas -17.65 -140.74 -18.58 ________________________________________ 34 Notre Dame 5.31 57.14 6.31 41 BYU 5.72 45.08 6.00 48 Navy 4.25 28.15 4.20 118 Army -15.38 -139.21 -17.00 ________________________________________ 58 W. Michigan 2.06 -5.47 1.11 64 Toledo -1.27 22.85 0.26 69 Northern Illinois -0.67 -26.90 -1.75 74 Cent. Michigan -4.95 -1.20 -3.36 92 Ohio -8.36 -31.47 -7.10 93 Buffalo -9.74 -18.32 -7.38 95 Ball St. -4.48 -129.01 -9.24 97 Miami (OH) -9.27 -66.75 -9.41 98 Akron -9.63 -63.42 -9.49 105 Bowling Green -9.51 -93.55 -10.87 109 Massachusetts -14.24 -82.46 -13.49 117 Kent St. -15.50 -134.54 -16.85 127 East. Michigan -28.78 -215.92 -29.64 ________________________________________ 15 Boise St. 13.98 124.24 15.34 29 Colorado St. 8.37 50.45 8.02 56 Utah St. 3.19 -0.32 2.11 66 Air Force 1.76 -30.51 -0.30 67 San Diego St. -2.49 18.96 -0.74 68 Nevada 1.75 -48.59 -1.19 101 Wyoming -11.43 -43.37 -9.72 102 Fresno St. -9.27 -74.84 -9.81 103 San Jose St. -16.18 16.40 -9.99 106 Hawaii -11.35 -89.57 -11.90 112 New Mexico -10.95 -142.94 -14.23 124 UNLV -19.34 -153.00 -20.30 _______________________________________ 5 Oregon 24.51 144.35 23.33 23 UCLA 11.13 92.78 11.92 24 USC 11.60 65.33 10.90 25 Stanford 9.33 93.87 10.77 31 Arizona 10.09 14.58 7.43 36 Arizona St. 8.44 12.92 6.25 57 Washington 4.82 -23.99 2.05 63 Utah 2.68 -31.40 0.26 71 Washington St. -7.50 55.46 -2.31 72 California -2.71 -17.30 -2.65 85 Oregon St. -6.18 -25.72 -5.36 87 Colorado -7.31 -13.15 -5.51 _________________________________________ 39 Georgia Southern 5.29 54.72 6.18 50 Arkansas St. 2.38 31.49 3.11 61 Appalachian State -2.44 50.66 0.83 73 LA Lafayette -2.02 -27.66 -2.69 83 Texas St. -5.91 -27.45 -5.27 86 South Alabama -6.29 -26.69 -5.49 94 LA Monroe -10.07 -51.04 -9.19 107 Idaho -14.99 -47.19 -12.28 121 Troy -18.90 -113.13 -18.08 125 New Mexico St. -23.33 -149.27 -22.79 126 Georgia State -24.57 -145.30 -23.41 ________________________________________ 2 Alabama 24.82 197.05 26.09 8 Mississippi 21.94 139.97 21.40 9 Auburn 18.68 161.85 20.29 10 Georgia 20.39 113.67 19.10 11 Mississippi St. 19.51 107.58 18.22 16 Arkansas 15.78 92.47 15.00 18 LSU 13.53 95.33 13.64 33 Missouri 7.90 34.29 6.93 35 Florida 6.73 37.41 6.30 38 Tennessee 7.19 29.14 6.21 51 Texas A&M 5.34 -10.76 3.04 54 South Carolina 2.21 19.62 2.42 81 Kentucky -3.86 -35.36 -4.29 119 Vanderbilt -17.59 -125.89 -17.82

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 14 DUSHEE

A lot of movement, although not at number 1. Much like the Frogs after Kansas, Baylor fell to 8 after struggling against Tech. DUSHEE loves Michigan State and Marshall, despite their loss, still remains high. Rank Team P/G Y/G Score 1 Alabama 23.72 193.23 25.16 2 Michigan St. 22.15 193.83 24.14 3 Ohio St. 22.86 170.19 23.47 4 TCU 24.21 136.86 22.76 5 Wisconsin 19.25 198.05 22.41 6 Marshall 20.93 156.93 21.54 7 Mississippi 21.89 141.68 21.44 8 Baylor 19.50 174.16 21.42 9 Oregon 22.64 120.90 20.94 10 Auburn 19.03 166.20 20.72 _____________________________________ 11 Georgia 20.85 116.66 19.54 12 Oklahoma 19.47 130.13 19.27 13 Mississippi St. 19.44 107.41 18.15 14 Boise St. 14.60 148.29 16.90 15 Georgia Tech 16.35 109.21 16.18 16 Arkansas 15.78 92.15 14.98 17 Kansas St. 15.52 90.86 14.74 18 LSU 14.12 99.49 14.22 19 Nebraska 14.78 89.35 14.18 20 Louisiana Tech 14.82 61.13 12.84 ________________________________________ 21 Miami (FL) 9.75 124.92 12.54 22 UCLA 11.36 93.84 12.11 23 Florida St. 12.67 68.72 11.77 24 USC 12.03 67.24 11.27 25 Louisville 9.39 92.26 10.73 26 Clemson 8.49 103.66 10.67 27 Stanford 9.18 91.37 10.54 28 Arizona 12.30 38.72 10.07 29 West Virginia 7.12 106.59 9.90 30 Missouri 9.67 42.25 8.49 _________________________________________ 31 Colorado St. 8.36 52.28 8.10 32 Minnesota 8.60 43.38 7.83 33 Boston Coll. 5.87 63.93 7.01 34 Arizona St. 8.81 16.31 6.66 35 Florida 7.04 39.29 6.59 36 Tennessee 7.56 31.22 6.55 37 Notre Dame 5.39 57.46 6.37 38 Georgia Southern 5.42 55.57 6.30 39 BYU 5.84 47.50 6.19 40 Virginia Tech 5.58 49.02 6.09 _________________________________________ 41 Memphis 8.75 0.09 5.84 42 Cincinnati 6.02 17.92 4.88 43 East Carolina 0.53 91.39 4.78 44 Penn St. 2.87 58.73 4.76 45 Virginia 2.78 57.12 4.62 46 Iowa 3.12 48.60 4.43 47 Pittsburgh 1.82 63.95 4.31 48 Navy 3.88 25.69 3.83 49 Arkansas St. 2.38 31.49 3.11 50 Texas 2.08 34.74 3.07 ________________________________________ 51 West. Kentucky 3.96 8.08 3.03 52 UCF 2.09 31.64 2.92 53 South Carolina 2.64 23.32 2.89 54 Texas A&M 5.20 -12.50 2.87 55 Washington 5.03 -23.22 2.23 56 Utah St. 3.17 1.34 2.18 57 Michigan 0.53 34.41 2.02 58 UAB 1.60 5.34 1.33 59 W. Michigan 2.03 -6.07 1.06 60 Toledo -0.65 28.59 0.95 ______________________________________________ 61 Appalachian State -2.44 50.66 0.82 62 N.C. State -0.15 14.46 0.60 63 Utah 2.96 -32.01 0.42 64 Duke 4.26 -53.32 0.26 65 Houston 0.50 -7.96 -0.05 66 Air Force 1.77 -28.63 -0.20 67 San Diego St. -2.46 19.30 -0.70 68 Nevada 2.15 -45.11 -0.75 69 Northwestern -2.05 -2.23 -1.48 70 Washington St. -7.27 56.46 -2.11 ________________________________________________ 71 LA Lafayette -1.90 -24.07 -2.43 72 California -2.48 -16.42 -2.45 73 Rutgers -3.96 -14.41 -3.34 74 Temple 0.43 -77.72 -3.47 75 Cent. Michigan -5.22 -3.42 -3.65 76 Rice -3.79 -25.52 -3.76 77 Maryland -0.95 -65.16 -3.79 78 North Carolina -3.37 -34.40 -3.91 79 Kentucky -3.56 -33.41 -3.99 80 Syracuse -5.75 -4.59 -4.05 __________________________________________ 81 Northern Illinois -3.31 -47.23 -4.49 82 UTEP -5.39 -21.66 -4.64 83 Middle Tenn. St. -3.99 -51.97 -5.18 84 Texas St. -5.91 -27.45 -5.27 85 Colorado -7.12 -12.65 -5.36 86 South Alabama -6.29 -26.69 -5.49 87 Oregon St. -6.33 -28.30 -5.59 88 Illinois -3.70 -74.58 -6.08 89 Purdue -6.05 -42.28 -6.08 90 Texas Tech -8.92 -4.78 -6.18 ___________________________________________ 91 Ohio -8.24 -31.84 -7.03 92 Buffalo -9.36 -16.60 -7.04 93 Oklahoma St. -5.77 -75.39 -7.49 94 Bowling Green -6.86 -74.12 -8.16 95 Akron -9.24 -61.62 -9.14 96 Florida Intl. -6.32 -101.86 -9.14 97 LA Monroe -10.07 -51.04 -9.18 98 Old Dominion -10.14 -51.19 -9.24 99 Indiana -9.21 -64.70 -9.27 100 Ball St. -4.51 -129.72 -9.28 ______________________________________________ 101 Miami (OH) -9.34 -67.65 -9.50 102 Wyoming -11.55 -45.39 -9.89 103 San Jose St. -16.15 14.84 -10.05 104 Tulane -13.75 -20.63 -10.17 105 Iowa St. -10.23 -87.63 -11.06 106 Fresno St. -10.05 -102.21 -11.65 107 Hawaii -11.31 -90.98 -11.94 108 Idaho -14.99 -47.19 -12.27 109 Florida Atlantic -11.62 -106.54 -12.90 110 Massachusetts -14.03 -81.05 -13.27 _______________________________________________ 111 UT-San Antonio -11.71 -114.82 -13.36 112 New Mexico -10.92 -142.74 -14.19 113 South Florida -12.12 -130.78 -14.41 114 Kansas -13.26 -121.01 -14.69 115 Southern Miss -14.77 -100.33 -14.70 116 Connecticut -16.09 -91.19 -15.14 117 Tulsa -16.40 -102.44 -15.89 118 Army -15.50 -139.23 -17.06 119 Kent St. -15.86 -136.56 -17.18 120 Vanderbilt -17.68 -127.44 -17.95 ______________________________________________ 121 Troy -18.90 -113.13 -18.07 122 Wake Forest -13.31 -190.93 -18.11 123 North Texas -17.84 -142.15 -18.77 124 UNLV -19.13 -154.18 -20.21 125 New Mexico St. -23.33 -149.27 -22.78 126 Georgia State -24.57 -145.30 -23.40 127 East. Michigan -29.05 -218.10 -29.91 128 SMU -31.15 -252.03 -32.96 By conference: Rank Team PD YD Score 41 Memphis 8.75 0.09 5.84 42 Cincinnati 6.02 17.92 4.88 43 East Carolina 0.53 91.39 4.78 52 UCF 2.09 31.64 2.92 65 Houston 0.50 -7.96 -0.05 74 Temple 0.43 -77.72 -3.47 113 South Florida -12.12 -130.78 -14.41 116 Connecticut -16.09 -91.19 -15.14 117 Tulsa -16.40 -102.44 -15.89 128 SMU -31.15 -252.03 -32.96 ______________________________________________ 15 Georgia Tech 16.35 109.21 16.18 21 Miami (FL) 9.75 124.92 12.54 23 Florida St. 12.67 68.72 11.77 25 Louisville 9.39 92.26 10.73 26 Clemson 8.49 103.66 10.67 33 Boston Coll. 5.87 63.93 7.01 40 Virginia Tech 5.58 49.02 6.09 45 Virginia 2.78 57.12 4.62 47 Pittsburgh 1.82 63.95 4.31 62 N.C. State -0.15 14.46 0.60 64 Duke 4.26 -53.32 0.26 78 North Carolina -3.37 -34.40 -3.91 80 Syracuse -5.75 -4.59 -4.05 122 Wake Forest -13.31 -190.93 -18.11 _____________________________________________ 2 Michigan St. 22.15 193.83 24.14 3 Ohio St. 22.86 170.19 23.47 5 Wisconsin 19.25 198.05 22.41 19 Nebraska 14.78 89.35 14.18 32 Minnesota 8.60 43.38 7.83 44 Penn St. 2.87 58.73 4.76 46 Iowa 3.12 48.60 4.43 57 Michigan 0.53 34.41 2.02 69 Northwestern -2.05 -2.23 -1.48 73 Rutgers -3.96 -14.41 -3.34 77 Maryland -0.95 -65.16 -3.79 88 Illinois -3.70 -74.58 -6.08 89 Purdue -6.05 -42.28 -6.08 99 Indiana -9.21 -64.70 -9.27 _____________________________________________ 4 TCU 24.21 136.86 22.76 8 Baylor 19.50 174.16 21.42 12 Oklahoma 19.47 130.13 19.27 17 Kansas St. 15.52 90.86 14.74 29 West Virginia 7.12 106.59 9.90 50 Texas 2.08 34.74 3.07 90 Texas Tech -8.92 -4.78 -6.18 93 Oklahoma St. -5.77 -75.39 -7.49 105 Iowa St. -10.23 -87.63 -11.06 114 Kansas -13.26 -121.01 -14.69 ______________________________________________ 6 Marshall 20.93 156.93 21.54 20 Louisiana Tech 14.82 61.13 12.84 51 West. Kentucky 3.96 8.08 3.03 58 UAB 1.60 5.34 1.33 76 Rice -3.79 -25.52 -3.76 82 UTEP -5.39 -21.66 -4.64 83 Middle Tenn. St. -3.99 -51.97 -5.18 96 Florida Intl. -6.32 -101.86 -9.14 98 Old Dominion -10.14 -51.19 -9.24 104 Tulane -13.75 -20.63 -10.17 109 Florida Atlantic -11.62 -106.54 -12.90 111 UT-San Antonio -11.71 -114.82 -13.36 115 Southern Miss -14.77 -100.33 -14.70 123 North Texas -17.84 -142.15 -18.77 _______________________________________________ 37 Notre Dame 5.39 57.46 6.37 39 BYU 5.84 47.50 6.19 48 Navy 3.88 25.69 3.83 118 Army -15.50 -139.23 -17.06 ___________________________________________ 59 W. Michigan 2.03 -6.07 1.06 60 Toledo -0.65 28.59 0.95 75 Cent. Michigan -5.22 -3.42 -3.65 81 Northern Illinois -3.31 -47.23 -4.49 91 Ohio -8.24 -31.84 -7.03 92 Buffalo -9.36 -16.60 -7.04 94 Bowling Green -6.86 -74.12 -8.16 95 Akron -9.24 -61.62 -9.14 100 Ball St. -4.51 -129.72 -9.28 101 Miami (OH) -9.34 -67.65 -9.50 110 Massachusetts -14.03 -81.05 -13.27 119 Kent St. -15.86 -136.56 -17.18 127 East. Michigan -29.05 -218.10 -29.91 ____________________________________________ 14 Boise St. 14.60 148.29 16.90 31 Colorado St. 8.36 52.28 8.10 56 Utah St. 3.17 1.34 2.18 66 Air Force 1.77 -28.63 -0.20 67 San Diego St. -2.46 19.30 -0.70 68 Nevada 2.15 -45.11 -0.75 102 Wyoming -11.55 -45.39 -9.89 103 San Jose St. -16.15 14.84 -10.05 106 Fresno St. -10.05 -102.21 -11.65 107 Hawaii -11.31 -90.98 -11.94 112 New Mexico -10.92 -142.74 -14.19 124 UNLV -19.13 -154.18 -20.21 ___________________________________________ 9 Oregon 22.64 120.90 20.94 22 UCLA 11.36 93.84 12.11 24 USC 12.03 67.24 11.27 27 Stanford 9.18 91.37 10.54 28 Arizona 12.30 38.72 10.07 34 Arizona St. 8.81 16.31 6.66 55 Washington 5.03 -23.22 2.23 63 Utah 2.96 -32.01 0.42 70 Washington St. -7.27 56.46 -2.11 72 California -2.48 -16.42 -2.45 85 Colorado -7.12 -12.65 -5.36 87 Oregon St. -6.33 -28.30 -5.59 _____________________________________________ 38 Georgia Southern 5.42 55.57 6.30 49 Arkansas St. 2.38 31.49 3.11 61 Appalachian State -2.44 50.66 0.82 71 LA Lafayette -1.90 -24.07 -2.43 84 Texas St. -5.91 -27.45 -5.27 86 South Alabama -6.29 -26.69 -5.49 97 LA Monroe -10.07 -51.04 -9.18 108 Idaho -14.99 -47.19 -12.27 121 Troy -18.90 -113.13 -18.07 125 New Mexico St. -23.33 -149.27 -22.78 126 Georgia State -24.57 -145.30 -23.40 ___________________________________________ 1 Alabama 23.72 193.23 25.16 7 Mississippi 21.89 141.68 21.44 10 Auburn 19.03 166.20 20.72 11 Georgia 20.85 116.66 19.54 13 Mississippi St. 19.44 107.41 18.15 16 Arkansas 15.78 92.15 14.98 18 LSU 14.12 99.49 14.22 30 Missouri 9.67 42.25 8.49 35 Florida 7.04 39.29 6.59 36 Tennessee 7.56 31.22 6.55 53 South Carolina 2.64 23.32 2.89 54 Texas A&M 5.20 -12.50 2.87 79 Kentucky -3.56 -33.41 -3.99 120 Vanderbilt -17.68 -127.44 -17.95

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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