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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

Entries in this blog

2018 DUSHEE Wrap-up

2018 DUSHEE Wrap-up

It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season.  DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done.  The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread.  And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening line

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

2018 End of Regular Season DUSHEE

Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season.  Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan.  The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season.  Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves.  Same old, same old.  I don't think

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

2018 Bowl Preview

2018 Bowl Preview

Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter.  ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton.  But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard ri

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 13 DUSHEE (2018)

Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points).  It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia.  Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team.  The biggest mover in the to

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 12 DUSHEE (2018)

A lot of movement in this week's rankings.  Alabama now has a 3-point lead on Clemson.  Oklahoma has fallen out of the top 4 as Georgia has moved into the 4-slot.  Notre Dame has slowly crept up into 7th, and would still be a home underdog to any other teams in the top-4, but are now in a position where another school (Georgia or Oklahoma) isn't totally getting screwed when they get in the CFP.  UCF has also climbed into the top 10, just ahead of Fresno as the top ranked Have Not ... last week's

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE (2018)

This week we'll bring the Extra Crispy version of DUSHEE back into the mix because the "Group of 5" made a big splash in this week's Original formula.  And while I'm reluctant to dismiss unexpected teams that rank highly just because they are unexpected (due perhaps to my own biases), this week's rankings have enough of those teams to give me some pause.  Like, say Utah State, who comes in 6th ... yes, 6th ... in this week's Original formula.   Utah State pounded San Jose (effing) Stat

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2018)

As we've discussed in previous weeks, Alabama and Clemson have been set for some time your clear top 2 (Alabama has retaken the top spot as the two continue to jockey in the rankings).  This week, Michigan has begun to separate from the pack as a clear #3 and Oklahoma has now created a little bit of space for itself in #4.  Were the season to end today, that is your playoff as far as DUSHEE is concerned.   The Frogs dropped again, despite the win, three spots to 50th.  DUSHEE has the F

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2018)

No movement in the top 4 although Clemson increased its lead over Bama a bit this week and the Frogs fell (only) 4 more spots to 47th, helped by outgaining Kansas by 200 yards despite losing.  The largest faller this week in both ranking and score was Baylor, who dropped 26 spots in the ranking to 83rd.  The biggest climber this week was Georgia Southern who beat DUSHEE darling Appalachian State and climbed 33 spots to 56th.   TCU Week-by-Week The Kansas game looks bad, but maybe

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2018)

I figure interest in this blog is niche at best, even when the Frogs are playing well.  So I assume at this point, I'm just writing this for myself.  But nonetheless, for this week's entry in the second saddest diary ever written (allowing that Anne Frank's is probably still a little sadder) ...   Clemson reclaims the top spot in the rankings, but it really is just Clemson, Bama, and the rest of the field at this point.  There is an almost 10-point gap between those two teams and 3rd r

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 7 (2018)

Alabama retakes the top spot this week, but the Tide and Clemson have emerged as the clear top 2 with a bunch of B1G teams filling out the rest of the top 5.  Yes, two-loss Penn State is still in the top 5, but they did have the second biggest single score drop of the week (Georgia dropped slightly more), falling over 10 points; the way the numbers worked out, however, they just dropped one spot, getting leapt by Michigan.    Oklahoma did very well against the bye, jumping 2 spots and

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2018)

Since this is late getting out, I'll keep the commentary to a minimum.  However, I'll revisit the Tech-TCU matchup because it is an interesting case study as to how the numbers change even when teams do not play.  As a teaser, Tech comes out of the bye better than the Frogs do ...   We have a new #1 as Clemson goes past Alabama to claim the top spot.    Top 3 Performances - Week 6 63.47 - Clemson at Wake (+60 MOV, 449 YM) 53.42 - Temple vs. ECU (+43, +274) 40.1

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE (2018)

This week, DUSHEE has pretty much the same top 6 that everybody else has, although perhaps not in the same order ... Bama, Penn St., Clempson, Ohio St., UGa, and Noater.  After that, DUSHEE is still a little crazy with App. St. (they did fall 4 spots) and Kentucky next in line.  Our Frogs fell 5 spots to #33.   Top and Bottom Performances of the Week   Now that we are 5 weeks in, we can go back and see what the top and bottom DUSHEE-rated performances of each week were.  Keep

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Inaugural 2018 DUSHEE (Week 4)

So the critical threshold has been crossed ... every FBS team has played at least two other FBS teams, which allows DUSHEE to calculate a score for each team without dividing by zeros or linearly extrapolating single points and other mathematical impossibilities that it doesn't like to do.  To no one's surprise, Alabama is #1 by a mile.  But this year's inaugural poll comes with the same caveat that every inaugural DUSHEE poll comes with ... just because there is enough data to calculate scores

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview 2017-2018

As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.   In the tables below,

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season DUSHEE (2017)

Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.   The Frogs   At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as stron

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 13 (2017)

No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.   TCU Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay   10.00 23.20 31.82  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

What Does It Mean When Someone Has a 60% Chance of Winning?

Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.   But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts th

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 12 (2017)

DUSHEE still loves the Ojai-uh Bucks and has now moved three SEC teams into slots 2-4.  A playoff final 4 that would be enough to make college football fans in every other part of the country outside the southeast and Ohio vomit.   The Frogs slid yet another spot to 14th.  The Frogs slow trickle down through the standings seems to be due to a general drop in the performance of the Big XII-II as a whole as the conference dropped from the 2nd spot to the 4th spot, passed by both the ACC

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE just can't quit the Buckeyes.  Ohio State's blow out win over Michigan State vaulted them back into the top spot, 0.4 of a point ahead of Alabama.  Auburn leapt 7 spots to take 3rd and Oklahoma moved up 3 to take 4th.  This is a lot of movement at this time of year, an indication of the magnitude of the blowouts we saw this weekend.   WTF DUSHEE?   Speaking of movement, while they have moved up 10 spots in the last two weeks, DUSHEE still has undefeated Miami well down

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2017)

We have a new Number 1!!!   After maintaining the top spot since the first DUSHEE rankings came out after week 5, Iowa's shocking obliteration of Ohio State dropped the Buckeyes more than 7 points in DUSHEE score, the largest single team drop of the week.  Despite this precipitous fall, Ohio State only dropped to 2nd in the rankings, behind Alabama, but still a point ahead of Georgia who leapfrogged Penn State into 3rd.  We are now getting to the point of the season where enough games

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2017)

For any who actually read any of this, I apologize but work and home life have not allowed time for commentary.  Just posting the results ...   Frogs Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU   8.00 30.00 37.86   15.83 28.50 17.50 7.00

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2017)

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  33.95 281.68 36.24 0 -2.69 2 Alabama  33.28 257.70 34.63 0 -1.78 3 Penn St.  34.19 191.62 32.04 0 -0.37 4

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE still loves it some Ohio State.  The Buckeyes remain firmly in first place, despite their loss to Oklahoma.  In fact, OSU has had a top 3 DUSHEE score each of the last 5 weeks.  Here are their week-to-week totals (rows are opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score.)   @ Ind  OU  Army  UNLV @ Rut  Mary @ Neb 31.50 4.40 41.40

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2017 Season)

As the weeks progress, things in DUSHEE tend to settle out.  Extremes begin to regress to the mean.  Of the top 15 teams, 12 saw their DUSHEE score drop this week; of the bottom 15, 9 saw their DUSHEE score rise.   Baylor got hammered during their bye week, falling 28 spots and losing 11 points in their DUSHEE score primarily because each of their past opponents (UTSA, Duke, OU, and K-State) all lost.  The Bears went from ranked 24th to 52nd and a DUSHEE score of 15.91 to 4.87.  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Inaugural 2017 DUSHEE Rankings

If you just want the rankings and don't care about my jibber-jabber, scroll down to the bottom of this post.  But I encourage you to read the jibber-jabber to allow me to explain some of the crazy stuff you see in the rankings.  And as an aside, the addition of Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and the rising of the UAB Phoenixes/Blazers from the ashes has raised the number of FBS teams to 130 for this season.   I'm always quite apprehensive putting out DUSHEE, particularly these early

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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