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About this blog

A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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Duquesne Frog

As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.

 

In the tables below, DO is DUSHEE Original, DR is DUSHEE Revised (or Extra Crispy), DA is the average of the two DUSHEE rankings, Sag is Sagarin, and SRS is the College Football Reference "Simple Rating System".  I pulled the Sagarin and SRS numbers before the Army-Navy game, so the numbers may not be an exact match for those checking my work.

 

TCU

 

Alamo

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Stanford  9-4 10.20 12.30 85.53 12.50 4.08
TCU  10-3 14.00 17.73 87.18 14.59 4.52

 

Here we are again, back in ol' Saint Tony, to face off against a Pac-12 runner up.  That last game wasn't very exciting, but this one will be if the computers and Vegas are right.

 

TCU is a unanimous, if small, favorite across the computational models and Vegas.  DUSHEE likes the Frogs a little more than Vegas, Sagarin a little less and the SRS pretty well nails the point spread:

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
TCU  3.80 TCU  5.43 TCU  4.61 TCU  2 TCU  1.65 TCU  2.1

 

New Years Six

 

Orange

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Wisconsin  12-1 24.45 28.65 93.09 22.65 2.73
Miami (FL)  10-2 9.04 12.25 83.72 15.97 5.62

 

Wisconsin is a unanimous favorite here as well, with all the computer models liking the Badgers more than Vegas.  DUSHEE likes Wiscy a LOT more than Vegas.  Vegas could be giving the Canes a home field advantage here.

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Wisconsin  15.40 Wisconsin  16.40 Wisconsin  15.90 Wisconsin  6.5 Wisconsin  9.37 Wisconsin  6.7

 

Peach

The Peach Bowl is the first of several games pairing teams with a disparate strength-of-schedule.  As one would expect, the DUSHEE Revised punishes the lower SoS much more than the Original.  Auburn had the 2nd most difficult schedule in college football this year (Maryland's ranked the toughest) while UCF's schedule ranked 85th.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Auburn  10-3 26.81 34.81 92.18 18.42 9.09
UCF  12-0 20.63 20.54 83.72 16.78 -1.61

 

Auburn is a unanimous favorite, but Vegas likes the Tigers/WarEagles more than any of the computer models other than DUSHEE Revised.  DUSHEE Average is right at the point spread.

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Auburn  6.18 Auburn  14.28 Auburn  10.23 Auburn  10 Auburn  8.46 Auburn  1.6

 

Fiesta

The Fiesta predictions follow the same pattern as the Orange, with all models liking the Nittany Lions more than Vegas.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Penn St.  10-2 25.00 27.67 96.58 21.57 1.85
Washington  10-2 17.99 19.55 92.24 17.56 -0.29

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Penn St.  7.01 Penn St.  8.12 Penn St.  7.57 Penn St.  3 Penn St.  4.34 Penn St.  4.0

 

Cotton

Again, all the computer models like Ohio State more than Vegas.  DUSHEE and Sagarin like the Buckeyes A LOT more.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Ohio St.  11-2 30.94 39.28 96.34 21.24 4.30
USC  11-2 11.97 15.10 83.98 14.19 2.91

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Ohio St.  18.96 Ohio St.  24.18 Ohio St.  21.57 Ohio St.  7 Ohio St.  12.36 Ohio St.  7.1

 

Rose

The models and Vegas are NOT unanimous for the two Semi-Final games.  For the Rose Bowl, the computers all like Georgia but Vegas (at least at the time I pulled the number) liked the Sooners.  None have the spread higher that 4-points.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Oklahoma  12-1 25.90 30.27 92.84 19.21 2.69
Georgia  12-1 27.31 33.93 95.34 22.70 5.72

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Georgia  1.41 Georgia  3.66 Georgia  2.54 Oklahoma  1 Georgia  2.50 Georgia  3.5

 

Sugar

The SRS likes Clemson, everybody else has the Tide as a small favorite.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Clemson  12-1 24.96 31.80 96.18 22.34 5.68
Alabama  11-1 29.27 32.25 98.90 18.95 2.79

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Alabama  4.31 Alabama  0.45 Alabama  2.38 Alabama  2 Alabama  2.72 Clemson  3.4

 

Games of That Already Happened

So I wasn't thinking and assumed I had another week before games started.  So here, I'll put the games that happened this weekend.  DUSHEE went against Vegas and most of the computer models and took Marshall, Boise, and Georgia State.  DUSHEE, along with everybody else, missed on the Middle Tennessee-Arkansas State matchup.  DUSHEE really liked Arkansas State, so while DUSHEE nailed a bunch of upsets, it also lost out on a high confidence pick in the Pick'em contest.

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Winner Margin
Marshall  3.35 Marshall  3.95 Marshall  3.65 Colorado St.  5.5 Colorado St.  2.32 Colorado St.  1.3 Marshall  3
Boise St.  3.50 Boise St.  1.86 Boise St.  2.68 Oregon  5 Oregon  3.38 Boise St.  2.4 Boise St.  10
Arkansas St.  10.30 Arkansas St.  10.62 Arkansas St.  10.46 Arkansas St.  3.5 Arkansas St.  6.59 Arkansas St.  5.3 Middle Tenn. St.  5
Georgia State 0.50 Georgia State 2.73 Georgia State 1.61 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  4.34 West. Kentucky  2.0 Georgia State 10
Troy  8.38 Troy  5.98 Troy  7.18 Troy  6 Troy  7.22 Troy  4.7 Troy  20

 

Other Games of Texas or Big XII-II Interest

 

Frisco

The Ponies are unanimous favorites and the all the computer models other than DUSHEE Original like the Ponies more than Vegas.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Louisiana Tech  6-6 -2.36 -6.06 60.75 -4.52 -5.09
SMU  7-5 1.73 1.45 68.57 3.46 1.41

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
SMU  4.08 SMU  7.51 SMU  5.79 SMU  5 SMU  7.82 SMU  8.0

 

Armed Forces

DUSHEE and Vegas are in close agreement, with the Aztecs about a touchdown favorite over Army.  Sagarin and SRS also like San Diego State, but not to cover.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Army  8-4 1.46 -0.27 68.78 2.26 -2.49
San Diego St.  10-2 8.97 7.03 74.05 6.49 -4.59

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
San Diego St.  7.51 San Diego St.  7.30 San Diego St.  7.40 San Diego St.  7 San Diego St.  5.27 San Diego St.  4.2

 

Hawaii

DUSHEE and SRS like the Bulldogs, Vegas and Sagarin like the Cougars.  Everybody likes Fresno against the spread.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Houston  7-4 1.59 0.19 72.31 3.63 -2.91
Fresno St.  9-4 5.15 4.18 71.85 4.22 -1.47

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Fresno St.  3.56 Fresno St.  3.99 Fresno St.  3.78 Houston  1.5 Houston  0.46 Fresno St.  0.6

 

Heart of Dallas

SRS likes the Mountaineers; everybody else likes the Utes.  Everybody likes WVU against the spread.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
West Virginia  7-5 3.86 6.49 75.71 6.11 3.63
Utah  6-6 6.17 7.80 77.70 5.13 1.55

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Utah  2.31 Utah  1.30 Utah  1.80 Utah  4.5 Utah  1.99 West Virginia  1.0

 

Cactus

DUSHEE has been down on the Fightin' Snyders all year long compared to everybody else.  DUSHEE likes the Bruins, everyone else likes the Wildcats.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Kansas St.  7-5 -2.01 -2.06 77.70 4.78 1.53
UCLA  6-6 0.52 3.29 74.55 2.86 4.06

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
UCLA  2.53 UCLA  5.35 UCLA  3.94 Kansas St.  3 Kansas St.  3.15 Kansas St.  1.9

 

Camping World

DUSHEE and Vegas like the Cowboys by almost a touchdown; Sagarin and SRS only like the Fightin' Mullets by about a point.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Virginia Tech  9-3 13.91 15.20 86.46 11.85 0.27
Oklahoma St.  9-3 19.64 21.71 87.67 12.52 0.14

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Oklahoma St.  5.73 Oklahoma St.  6.51 Oklahoma St.  6.12 Oklahoma St.  6.5 Oklahoma St.  1.21 Oklahoma St.  0.7

 

Texas

Everybody likes the Horns except Vegas.  Sagarin likes Texas by almost a TD, everybody else by a field goal or less.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Texas  6-6 6.10 7.67 81.11 7.27 0.96
Missouri  7-5 3.84 3.62 74.35 5.34 -0.52

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Texas  2.26 Texas  4.06 Texas  3.16 Missouri  1 Texas  6.76 Texas  1.9

 

Birmingham

This bowl pits the teams with the largest differential in strength-of-schedule which translates to a big difference in how the Original and Revised formulations of DUSHEE see this game.  Original DUSHEE has USF as a 9-point favorite; Revised DUSHEE likes Tech by under a point.  Sagarin agrees with Revised DUSHEE; Vegas, SRS, and Average DUSHEE are close.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Texas Tech  6-6 2.68 6.69 76.47 3.39 4.43
South Florida  9-2 11.70 6.04 75.52 7.30 -9.93

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
South Florida  9.03 Texas Tech  0.64 South Florida  4.19 South Florida  2.5 Texas Tech  0.95 South Florida  3.9

 

Belk

It's easy to forget, especially those of us out of state, that A&M is still in Texas.  They face off against Wake Forest in Charlotte where the computer models all like Wake more than Vegas, and Vegas has the Demon Deacons as a 2.5-point favorite.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Wake Forest  7-5 7.59 11.82 80.21 11.66 7.14
Texas A&M  7-5 2.38 3.52 75.20 3.05 3.29

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Wake Forest  5.21 Wake Forest  8.31 Wake Forest  6.76 Wake Forest  2.5 Wake Forest  5.01 Wake Forest  8.6

 

Liberty

The Cyclones face off against Memphis who is playing in their home stadium.  If Vegas views this as a home game for the Tigers, then the bettors view the teams as pretty well dead even, as does the SRS.  DUSHEE likes Memphis while Sagarin likes Iowa State.

 

Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS
Memphis  10-2 12.97 13.36 78.04 9.63 -0.67
Iowa St.  7-5 8.48 11.29 82.27 9.38 3.54

 

DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Memphis  4.49 Memphis  2.07 Memphis  3.28 Memphis  3 Iowa St.  4.23 Memphis  0.3

 

All the Others

Here are the other games

    DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS
Boca Raton   Florida Atlantic  23.09 Florida Atlantic  23.35 Florida Atlantic  23.22 Florida Atlantic  17 Florida Atlantic  12.79 Florida Atlantic  10.5
Potato   Cent. Michigan  4.16 Cent. Michigan  4.70 Cent. Michigan  4.43 even 0 Wyoming  2.98 Wyoming  1.3
Bahamas   Ohio  10.35 Ohio  12.15 Ohio  11.25 Ohio  8 Ohio  13.73 Ohio  8.7
Dollar General   Toledo  5.92 Toledo  7.62 Toledo  6.77 Toledo  7 Toledo  6.98 Toledo  9.3
Gasparilla   Temple  2.43 Temple  6.44 Temple  4.44 Temple  8 Temple  8.11 Temple  3.0
Quick Lane   Northern Illinois  2.30 Duke  0.12 Northern Illinois  1.09 Duke  2.5 Duke  6.66 Duke  2.8
Independence   Florida St.  3.77 Florida St.  15.49 Florida St.  9.63 Florida St.  14 Florida St.  17.8 Florida St.  11.9
Military   Navy  7.82 Navy  7.36 Navy  7.59 Navy  3.5 Navy  1.72 Navy  3.3
Holiday   Washington St.  2.11 Washington St.  1.18 Washington St.  1.65 Washington St.  4.5 Washington St.  0.8 Michigan St.  3.6
Pinstripe   Iowa  4.66 Iowa  4.05 Iowa  4.36 Iowa  3 Iowa  5.76 Iowa  4.0
Foster Farms   Purdue  3.84 Purdue  5.97 Purdue  4.91 Arizona  4.5 Purdue  1.79 Purdue  5.6
Sun   N.C. State  6.44 N.C. State  9.05 N.C. State  7.75 N.C. State  5 N.C. State  5.4 N.C. State  5.5
Music City   Northwestern  14.26 Northwestern  16.61 Northwestern  15.43 Northwestern  8.5 Northwestern  14.65 Northwestern  10.5
Arizona   Utah St.  0.65 Utah St.  2.30 Utah St.  1.47 Utah St.  3 Utah St.  9.41 Utah St.  9.3
Citrus   Notre Dame  7.60 Notre Dame  10.32 Notre Dame  8.96 LSU  2.5 Notre Dame  6.23 Notre Dame  8.4
Outback   Michigan  12.42 Michigan  16.33 Michigan  14.37 Michigan  8.5 Michigan  7.71 Michigan  7.8
TaxSlayer   Mississippi St.  3.12 Mississippi St.  5.95 Mississippi St.  4.53 Louisville  6 Mississippi St.  1.36 Mississippi St.  0.4

 

Duquesne Frog

Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.

 

The Frogs

 

At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as strongly as they started it, as can be seen in the week-to-week tallies (by rows, Opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score):

 

  @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay # OU
  10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 2.08 24.90 11.70 -4.42
  1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 97.75 -26.60 -9.60 59.83
  6.73 23.07 29.03   1.26 22.71 27.13 4.77 24.48 6.20 15.29 7.33 0.00

 

The Frogs' best five performances all occurred in the first 8 games of the season.  Arguably their worst four performances (WVU looks worse due to their late-season swoon after Grier got hurt) occurred in the last 6 games.  After showing some flashes of brilliance against SMU and Oklahoma State, the offense grew inconsistent and less threatening as the season progressed and while the defense was generally very impressive down the stretch, Oklahoma made them look very pedestrian twice.

 

But remember, the Frogs were 6-7 and ranked 50th a year ago.  Any of us would have taken 10-3 and a clear 2nd place finish in the conference this time last year.

 

The Frogs Final Opponent: Stanford

 

So the Trees went 9-4, also losing their conference championship rematch, but losing it in a slightly more impressive fashion (albeit against a weaker opponent).  Stanford sits at 26th in the DUSHEE rankings, but are only a spot behind the Frogs in point differential (TCU: 14.8, Stanford: 13.7).  The Frogs advantage is mostly in yardage differential (TCU: 84.1, Stanford: 22.3).  So Stanford has had to move the ball less to get its points, usually a good sign that Stanford has gotten more turnovers than the Frogs have, and that bears out -- Stanford has a turnover margin per game of 1.15 (6th in the country) versus TCU's 0.31 (49th).

 

Stanford's week-to-week numbers look like this:

 

# Rice @ USC @ SDSU  UCLA  ASU @ Utah  Ore   @ OreSt @ WSU  Wash  Cal  ND # USC
38.73 -10.58 9.00 22.91 11.64 7.90 50.70   -26.00 2.00 30.10 1.20 34.36 5.67
349.91 -212.83 -22.60 -63.18 79.55 53.10 297.30   -201.20 -133.70 216.40 5.10 1.36 -79.58
43.04 -17.53 4.89 12.16 11.67 7.88 48.43   -27.23 -5.25 30.71 1.05 22.98 -0.14

 

In this, you see that Stanford has been really very inconsistent (see last week's blog post for more discussion of this); in fact the Trees are among the 10 most inconsistent teams in college football this season..  Against Rice, Oregon, and Washington, Stanford played like world-beaters, all better performances than any single TCU game.  Against USC (both times, but particularly the first time), Oregon State, and Washington State, the Cardinal were between below average and pretty terrible, far worse than TCU has looked in any one game this year.  Stanford beat Oregon State by 1 and were outgained by 42 (coming off of a bye week); Oregon beat Oregon State by 59 and outgained them by 366.  Oregon State is Kansas.

 

So if we put both teams in the ol' Monte Carlo simulator, the Frogs win 56% of the time by an average of about 3.4 points.

 

Performances of the (last two) Week(s)

Top 3

43.32 Georgia vs. Auburn (Point Margin: 21, Yardage Margin: 162)

37.47 Clemson vs. Miami (PM: 35, YM: 117)

36.60 Oklahoma vs. TCU (PM: 24, YM: 144)

 

Bottom 3

-40.61 Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian St. (PM: -49, YM: -239)

-36.53 Louisiana-Monroe at Florida St. (PM: -32, YM: -204)

-23.47 UMass at FIU (PM: -18, YM: -134)

 

Performances of the Year

 

Since we're at the end of the regular season, I thought this would be a good time to go back and look at the games that received the highest and lowest DUSHEE scores during the season.  The best and worst performances were both owned by Roy Moore's home state.  Three of the ten worst performances of the year were by the San Jose (effing) State Spartans.

 

Top 10

63.42 Alabama (Week 4) at Vanderbilt 59-0

61.96 Alabama (Week 5) vs. Mississippi 66-3

57.22 Iowa (Week 10) vs. Ohio State 55-24

56.79 Ohio State (Week 11) vs. Michigan St. 48-3 

54.46 Auburn (Week 11) vs. Georgia 40-17

48.82 Penn St. (Week 3) vs. Georgia St. 56-0

48.43 Stanford (Week 7) vs. Oregon 49-7

47.73 Auburn (Week 5) vs. Mississippi St. 49-10

47.52 Florida Atlantic (Week 8) at North Texas 69-31

47.46 Penn St. (Week 1) vs. Akron 52-0

 

Bottom 10

-72.39 South Alabama (Week 12) at Georgia Southern 0-52

-61.78 San Jose St. (Week 4) vs. Utah St. 10-61

-57.17 San Jose St. (Week 2) at Texas 0-56

-56.17 Oregon St. (Week 13) at Oregon 10-69

-54.75 Rice (Week 1) vs. Stanford 7-62

-54.53 Cincinnati (Week 12) at East Carolina 20-48

-54.43 UNC-Charlotte (Week 2) at Kansas St. 7-55

-51.58 New Mexico (Week 11) at Texas A&M 14-55

-51.58 Coastal Carolina (Week 9) vs. Texas St. 7-27

-49.60 San Jose St. (Week 11) at Nevada 14-59

 

Conference Rankings

 

I recognize that this will be an unpopular ranking, but if you average up the DUSHEE scores for all the teams in each conference, the Big 10 comes out as the top conference, edging out the ACC.  The Big 12 started the year strong, sitting at one or two through most of the season, but fell to 4th by the end of the season as other conferences added more non-conference games.  The AAC is about where the Mountain West was when the Frogs were in the conference, clearly a notch or two below the "Power 5" but a notch or two above the other "Group of 5" conferences.  Our old home is now closer to the MAC and Sun Belt than they are to the American Athletic Conference, let alone the big boys.

 

B10 5.72
ACC 5.51
SEC 5.23
B12 4.73
P12 3.48
AAC -0.69
MWC -5.84
MAC -7.29
CUSA -7.38
SBC -8.11

 

Final Regular Season Rankings

 

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 0 0.36
2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 1 -0.13
3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 1 1.47
4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 -2 -2.64
5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 0 0.48
6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 0 -0.29
7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 1 1.09
8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 -1 -0.57
9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 0 -0.29
10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 0 -0.27
11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 0 -0.45
12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 0 -0.23
13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 0 -0.51
14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 0 -1.27
15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 0 -0.25
16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 0 0.19
17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 9 1.06
18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 4 0.34
19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 -2 -0.37
20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 -2 -0.23
21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 2 0.43
22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 -1 -0.19
23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 -3 -0.58
24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 -5 -0.61
25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 0 -0.30
26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 -2 -0.85
27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 1 -0.48
28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 1 -0.09
29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 -2 -1.45
30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 3 0.41
31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 -1 -0.25
32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 -1 -0.26
33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 -1 -0.42
34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 2 0.79
35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 -1 -0.10
36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 -1 -0.25
37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 4 0.37
38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 -1 -0.17
39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 -1 -0.29
40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 0 -0.13
41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 -2 -0.28
42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 2 1.49
43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 -1 -0.16
44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 -1 -0.05
45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 2 0.06
46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 -1 -0.30
47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 -1 -0.23
48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 13 3.02
49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 10 1.87
50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 2 0.32
51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 -2 -0.21
52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 -4 -0.40
53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 0 0.01
54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 -3 -0.30
55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 0 -0.04
56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 -6 -0.68
57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 -3 -0.94
58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 0 -0.04
59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 -2 -0.21
60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 -4 -0.50
61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 -1 -0.29
62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 1 0.01
63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 1 -0.04
64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 -2 -0.43
65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 0 0.08
66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 1 -0.36
67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 2 -0.01
68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 0 -0.43
69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 -3 -1.15
70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 1 0.15
71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 -1 -0.31
72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 1 -0.07
73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 3 0.05
74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 0 -0.01
75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 -3 -0.40
76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 1 0.06
77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 -2 -0.14
78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 0 -0.67
79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 2 0.35
80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 -1 -0.25
81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 -1 -0.40
82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 11 2.32
83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 -1 0.03
84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 1 0.30
85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 -1 -0.07
86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 -3 -0.29
87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 -1 -0.08
88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 0 0.00
89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 1 0.23
90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 -1 0.00
91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 -4 -1.10
92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 -1 -0.40
93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 -1 -0.14
94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 1 -0.03
95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 -1 -0.31
96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 1 -0.05
97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 2 -0.09
98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 0 -0.51
99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 5 0.36
100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 0 -0.39
101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 -5 -2.52
102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 1 0.00
103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 -2 -0.55
104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 1 -0.36
105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 -3 -0.53
106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 3 1.43
107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 0 0.25
108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 3 0.99
109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 -3 -1.50
110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 -2 -0.17
111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 -1 -0.03
112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88 0 -0.18
113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 0 0.00
114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 0 0.00
115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 0 -0.37
116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 0 -0.33
117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 0 -0.27
118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 0 -0.30
119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 1 -0.06
120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 -1 -0.12
121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 1 -0.06
122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 -1 -1.99
123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 0 -0.14
124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 0 -0.13
125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 1 0.34
126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 -1 0.04
127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 0 -0.27
128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 0 0.02
129 UTEP  -25.84 -197.46 -26.95 0 -0.13
130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 0 -0.10

 

By Conference

AAC

9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63
16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97
20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70
43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27
57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73
59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59
68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89
83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45
100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65
110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28
116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47
118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42

ACC

7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96
15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91
21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64
29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04
30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99
34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59
37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51
39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18
49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47
58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64
66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43
73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49
75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55
104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34

B1G

1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94
6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00
8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45
19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80
24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17
28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36
32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77
36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58
52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98
80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52
81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81
103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97
115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14
120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90
10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64
14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00
33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48
41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10
46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86
54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68
71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01
95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39
127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94

CUSA

17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03
50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10
62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20
64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30
69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90
72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36
82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32
84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51
94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29
99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57
119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42
124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10
125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59
129 UTEP  -25.85 -197.45 -26.95

Indies

11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79
60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46
91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53
105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35

MAC

27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65
45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94
51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06
67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59
70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92
74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51
76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57
87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32
107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06
113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62
126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81
128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80

MWC

25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72
31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97
44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15
63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25
85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82
86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92
93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73
96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99
97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89
111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54
117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16
130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67

P12

12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99
18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97
22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47
26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20
35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21
40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17
53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74
55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55
61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52
77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66
90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63
123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74

SBC

38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48
42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79
48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73
89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56
98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07
101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79
106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97
108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62
109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09
114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88
121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66
122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72

SEC

2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27
3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31
4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81
13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76
23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19
47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84
56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38
65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62
78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39
79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44
88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49
92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66
102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88
112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88

 

Duquesne Frog

No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.

 

TCU Week-to-Week

  @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay
  10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 1.73 24.90 11.70
  1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 103.45 -26.60 -9.60
  6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33

 

TCU's Next Opponent (OU) Week-to-Week

 UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex @ KSU  Ttech @ OkSt  TCU @ Kan  WVU
26.18 42.45 41.30 -4.80   1.20 13.64 11.60 22.70 28.55 36.10 9.90 32.10
317.73 414.45 300.90 57.50   93.90 150.64 141.50 206.60 330.18 201.20 156.90 300.80
33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17

 

Conference Rankings

B10 6.02
SEC 5.52
ACC 5.38
B12 5.06
P12 3.63
AAC -0.42
MWC -5.70
MAC -7.31
CUSA -7.58
SBC -8.15

 

Top 3 Performances

39.46 Auburn vs. Alabama (+12 Point Margin, +31 Yardage Margin)

39.36 Georgia at Georgia Tech (+31 PM, +245 YM)

38.44 Penn St. at Maryland (+63 PM, +231 YM)

 

Bottom 3 Performances

-56.13 Oregon St. at Oregon (-59 PM, -366 YM)

-45.07 Texas St. at Troy (-53 PM, -341 YM)

-41.17 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (-18 PM, -291 YM)

 

Overall Rankings

Rank Team P/G Y/G Score Rk +/- Score +/-
1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 0 -1.23
2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 1 0.86
3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 -1 -1.73
4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 0 0.66
5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 0 0.54
6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 0 0.99
7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 0 0.78
8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 0 0.36
9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 1 0.27
10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 1 -0.31
11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 -2 -1.45
12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 1 1.47
13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 -1 -1.93
14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 0 -1.33
15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 0 -1.33
16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 5 1.58
17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 3 0.27
18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 5 2.10
19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 8 2.21
20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 6 2.04
21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 -4 -1.59
22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 -4 -1.25
23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 1 1.43
24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 1 1.32
25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 -6 -0.96
26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 -4 -0.16
27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 -11 -3.97
28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 6 2.00
29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 1 0.25
30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 2 0.76
31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 4 1.16
32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 -3 -0.41
33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 -5 -0.76
34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 8 2.54
35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 2 -0.64
36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 -3 -1.64
37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 15 3.79
38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 -7 -2.47
39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 -3 -1.39
40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 5 1.97
41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 2 1.53
42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 -3 -0.87
43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 5 1.79
44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 5 1.10
45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 -5 -1.79
46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 -2 -0.41
47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 -6 -0.92
48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 -2 -0.44
49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 1 0.35
50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 -12 -3.95
51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 2 0.63
52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 2 0.96
53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 -6 -0.92
54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 -3 -0.23
55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 3 1.36
56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 0 0.43
57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 7 1.72
58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 1 0.88
59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 -4 -0.09
60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 1 0.34
61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 8 1.92
62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 3 0.45
63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 -6 -1.59
64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 -4 -0.69
65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 -2 -0.83
66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 1 0.31
67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 12 2.44
68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 3 0.12
69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 -7 -2.03
70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 3 0.42
71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 -1 -0.69
72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 3 0.16
73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 13 2.56
74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 6 1.44
75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 -3 -0.76
76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 -8 -1.48
77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 10 2.24
78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 -1 0.30
79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 -5 -1.06
80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 -14 -2.91
81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 -5 -1.15
82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 6 0.41
83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 2 0.18
84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 0 -0.18
85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 11 2.99
86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 -3 -0.70
87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 3 0.48
88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 -6 -1.22
89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 -11 -2.34
90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 4 1.86
91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 -2 -1.01
92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 -11 -2.34
93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 7 2.29
94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 -1 -0.14
95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 0 0.40
96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 -4 -0.44
97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 7 1.85
98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 -1 -0.62
99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 -1 -0.51
100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 -1 -0.52
101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 -10 -2.86
102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 5 1.58
103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 5 1.58
104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 -1 -0.28
105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 -3 -0.66
106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 4 2.02
107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 -1 0.09
108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 -3 -1.91
109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 2 0.31
110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 -1 -0.63
111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 1 0.36
112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70 -11 -3.76
113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 10 3.39
114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 2 1.06
115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 -2 -1.62
116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 6 0.88
117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 4 0.05
118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 -3 -1.61
119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 -5 -2.53
120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 -3 -1.22
121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 -3 -1.53
122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 -2 -2.65
123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 -4 -4.27
124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 0 1.09
125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 2 0.97
126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 0 0.56
127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 -2 -0.88
128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 0 1.62
129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 0 1.09
130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 0 3.47

 

By Conference

AAC

9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92
16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78
18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93
42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43
54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66
57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81
68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46
82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49
100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26
108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11
116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14
118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12

ACC

8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86
15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16
23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20
27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49
33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58
36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80
38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46
41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14
58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68
59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61
67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06
72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15
76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54
105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99

B1G

1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58
6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29
7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01
17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16
19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78
29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45
31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02
35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83
48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38
79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27
80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42
101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42
115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77
119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33

BXII-II

5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43
10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91
14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27
32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89
39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39
45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16
51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97
70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70
94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08
127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66

CUSA

26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98
52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78
62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13
63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21
66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75
73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29
85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81
93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64
95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26
104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92
120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37
124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98
126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93
129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81

Indies

11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24
56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96
87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43
102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83

MAC

28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13
47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89
49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27
69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58
71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07
74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50
77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63
86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24
107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30
113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61
125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85
128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81

MWC

25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02
30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22
43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20
64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21
83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62
84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75
92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59
97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94
99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79
110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51
117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89
130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57

P12

12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22
21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67
22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63
24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05
34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32
40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30
53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72
55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58
60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81
75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51
89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62
123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60

SBC

37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65
44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30
61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71
90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79
96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27
98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55
106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59
109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39
111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61
114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87
121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73
122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60

SEC

2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45
3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40
4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84
13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27
20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77
46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07
50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07
65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70
78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72
81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79
88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49
91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25
103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88
112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70

 

Duquesne Frog

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Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.

 

But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts the odds of something happening at 70% and that something doesn't happen, does it mean that the analysis was wrong (spoiler: almost certainly, but probably not in the way you think)? Or did something improbable simply happen (spoiler: also almost certainly)?

 

At the crux of understanding of this topic, we first have to get comfortable with the concept of uncertainty.  Those in the science/statistics game are trained to get comfortable with the concept, but it is not a concept that humans necessarily have a natural affinity for.  In fact, uncertainty makes most people really uncomfortable.  We don't like to think of forces that act on us as being in any way random.  "Everything happens for a reason," we love to tell ourselves.

 

But whether we like uncertainty or not, every halfway complex interaction that occurs is fraught with uncertainty and randomness.  The variables at play are many and unaccountable with the time and hardware available to us in the moment to assess them.  Did that man in Pennsylvania see an ad right before the election that made him change his vote?  Did that woman in Wisconsin have a child get sick the morning of the election which caused her not to vote when she would have?

 

Now don't worry ... I'm not going to talk politics here.  We're going to use college football for our example, but the principles apply to the political example too.

 

So how does someone determine the odds of a team winning?

 

First, you need some data.  For this example, we'll use DUSHEE's modified Point Differential metric.  And let's take two teams, totally at random ... say TCU and Oklahoma.

 

As I write this, TCU has played 11 DUSHEE-recognized games, Oklahoma has played 12.  The week-to-week DUSHEE score for each team is as follows:

 

TCU

  Ark SMU OkSt   WVU KSU Kan ISU Tex OU Ttech Bay