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A sports analysis blog hosted by lovable, furry old Duquesne. Come here for DUSHEE missives and other sundry wonkish thoughts.

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Week 11 DUSHEE (2018)

This week we'll bring the Extra Crispy version of DUSHEE back into the mix because the "Group of 5" made a big splash in this week's Original formula.  And while I'm reluctant to dismiss unexpected teams that rank highly just because they are unexpected (due perhaps to my own biases), this week's rankings have enough of those teams to give me some pause.  Like, say Utah State, who comes in 6th ... yes, 6th ... in this week's Original formula.   Utah State pounded San Jose (effing) State this week, 62-24, outgaining them by over 400 yards.  This comes on the heels of the Aggies curbstomping Hawaii 56-17 in Week 10, and New Mexico 61-19 in Week 9.  With some exceptions, Utah State has been doing to sorry ass teams what a good team should be doing.  But Utah State has been playing A LOT of sorry ass teams.  So many of them, that they have the 4th easiest schedule in the country (127th out of 130).  They have played three above-average teams this year, and none in the last 5 games, when they have gone from 36th to 6th in the rankings.  The only legitimately good team they played this year was Michigan State (DUSHEE Score -- 11.2), to whom they lost in Week 1 38-31 in East Lansing.  Their other two games against teams with positive DUSHEE scores were a 10-point win in Week 4 against Air Force (3.8) and a 25-point win in Week 6 against BYU (3.6).  Utah State also struggled with Wyoming and avoided Fresno.  They still have to play Boise on the smurf turf.   To review, the Extra Crispy DUSHEE tries to "fix" two potential problems with the Original Formula, 1) by reducing the significance of outlying performances, i.e., games where a team performs either a whole lot better or a whole lot worse than they do on average and 2) placing a greater emphasis on strength of schedule.  The Original DUSHEE doesn't neglect Strength of Schedule.  If you beat a bad team by a TD and beat a good team by a TD, your DUSHEE score against the good team will be higher.  However, if that bad team has only played other bad teams, their comparative margins of victory and yardage margins might not be as low as other bad teams who have played a tougher schedule.   Extra Crispy DUSHEE attempts to correct for this issue by giving you less credit for crushing a bad team, and conversely, punishing you less for getting crushed by a good team.    So in the Extra Crispy Formulation, Utah State comes in at what seems to be a more reasonable 22nd.  However, the Extra Crispy Formula is not without its warts and makes me uneasy for a few reasons.  One, the methodology is more complex and more difficult to justify numerically ... if you put a gun to my head and tell me to prove to you that the Extra Crispy Formula doesn't just put numbers to my own confirmation bias, go ahead and pull the trigger.  And for every Utah State that the Extra Crispy Formula knocks down, there is a middling "Power 5" team like Texas A&M or Missouri that it elevates (6th and 10th, respectively) because of their high Strength of Schedules (1st and 3rd toughest, respectively).  So I tend to stay with the Original Formula.   And because the Frogs still have a pretty high SOS (13th), the Extra Crispy Formula likes them much more than the Original (53rd vs. 72nd).  The Original Formula has finally given up the notion that the Frogs are a decent, but unlucky, team.  Which gives us a nice segue to ...   Frogs Week-to-Week Opp:       @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex    |   ISU      Ttech        OU   |   @ Kan      KSU       @ WVU PD:            23.63          7.33      -10.33   | 10.75      -0.38      -6.44 |      -7.25      -5.00       -21.57 YD:            74.00      140.22       12.89   |161.75    65.75  -106.56 |  133.63  -125.63     -222.43 Orig. Sc.   19.26         11.55       -6.28   |  14.85       2.87      -9.36 |       1.51      -9.30       -24.94 XC Sc.       13.50         23.37       -1.28  |  21.72       9.94        5.56 |      -4.78    -14.47       -10.86   As you can see, the Extra Crispy (XC) Formula is much gentler toward the Frogs against Ohio State, ISU, Tech, OU, and WVU.  But less impressed about SMU, Kansas, and Kansas State.   Frogs Next Opponent (Rapey Bears) Opp:     UTSA    Duke     Kan   |    OU        KSU      Tex  |      WVU      OkSt        ISU PD:        -0.89  -10.13   15.25  | -15.33    -2.75    -0.33  |  -29.57       8.75      -8.38 YD:       68.33  -40.38 110.00  | 12.33   -14.25  -60.44 | -185.86    -89.25   194.38 Orig        2.65    -8.67   15.39  |  -9.64     -2.51    -3.09  |   -28.54      1.60        3.64 XC        -13.69    -7.78     8.28  |    6.01    -7.41     1.15  |    -15.73      4.29       9.67   So you could argue that TCU's better performances have been better than Baptist's, but as we've repeated each week, those good TCU performances now seem like a whole other season ago.  Baptist at least has shown some signs of life of late, which is more than we can say about the Frogs.   Using Original DUSHEE, Baptist is a 1-point favorite at home and the Frogs have a 48% chance of winning.  I will acknowledge that that seems overly auspicious about our chances.   Performances of the Week Notes for all three top performances -- Our Frogs gave up the top performance so we have that going for us, which is nice.  Minnesota followed up the worst performance of Week 10 with the second best performance of Week 11.  As you might expect, Minnesota has an extremely high standard deviation in Point Differential (28.7), second highest, in fact, behind only Louisiana-Monroe.  And finally, Clemson has had one of the top 3 performances for SIX of the NINE FBS games they have played.  Alabama has had a top 3 performance in 5 of 10 games.   And Virginia Tech fans may be the only fans in the country more disappointed in their season than Frog fans.   Top 3 38.91 West Virginia vs. TCU (37 MOV, 313 YM) 38.33 Minnesota vs. Purdue (31 MOV, 182 YM) 35.66 Clemson at BC (20 MOV, 311 YM)   Bottom 3 -49.34 Colorado St. at Nevada (-39 MOV, -376 YM) -43.07 South Alabama vs. ULaMon (-28 MOV, -333 YM) -37.88 Virginia Tech at Pitt (-30 MOV, -222 YM)   Original DUSHEE Ratings The biggest risers of this week were Pitt (up 16 spots to 51st) and Old Dominion (up 4.46 points after a surprise 34-31 win over North Texas).  The biggest drops of the week were the Frogs (down 22 spots to 72nd) and Purdue (down 5.34 points after losing to Minnesota).     Week 11     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  37.18 292.21 38.61 0 -0.27 2 Clemson  35.43 283.57 37.04 0 -1.47 3 Michigan  27.07 234.88 29.17 0 -2.05 4 Oklahoma  21.18 190.07 23.12 0 -2.25 5 Georgia  23.39 138.51 22.15 0 0.29 6 Utah St.  20.23 79.84 17.26 8 1.68 7 West Virginia  18.04 109.60 17.21 14 3.46 8 Penn St.  18.55 89.66 16.61 2 0.39 9 Ohio St.  15.76 128.29 16.58 0 -0.28 10 Fresno St.  18.01 81.59 15.87 2 -0.17 11 Notre Dame  15.19 110.27 15.35 8 1.06 12 Texas A&M  11.19 162.10 15.13 -5 -1.79 13 Mississippi St.  14.34 117.64 15.13 2 0.00 14 Missouri  14.38 99.87 14.31 -6 -2.61 15 LSU  15.78 75.35 14.09 -9 -3.16 16 UCF  16.31 66.31 14.01 1 -0.56 17 Boise St.  13.05 103.64 13.61 14 2.63 18 Iowa  13.23 97.38 13.43 -5 -2.45 19 UAB 11.20 125.68 13.42 -1 -1.06 20 Washington St.  11.33 121.38 13.30 6 1.27 21 Appalachian State 13.73 86.53 13.25 6 1.27 22 Army  13.86 81.41 13.09 1 0.14 23 Temple  12.92 91.96 12.97 -1 -0.52 24 Utah  12.46 87.53 12.45 4 0.87 25 Cincinnati  12.14 89.41 12.32 4 0.88 26 North Texas  11.34 98.97 12.25 -15 -3.89 27 Michigan St.  10.87 82.78 11.16 -3 -1.28 28 N.C. State  10.25 79.97 10.62 -12 -3.97 29 Texas Tech  8.95 77.85 9.65 1 -1.71 30 Iowa St.  10.45 53.85 9.51 -5 -2.87 31 Washington  9.60 64.71 9.47 2 -0.40 32 Buffalo  7.84 71.20 8.60 7 0.96 33 Purdue  8.58 60.17 8.57 -13 -5.34 34 Ohio  8.51 52.25 8.15 2 -0.64 35 Wisconsin  7.22 68.72 8.06 -1 -1.32 36 Miami (FL)  6.17 80.29 7.91 -1 -0.97 37 Florida  7.96 41.07 7.25 1 -0.47 38 Texas  8.63 30.29 7.19 -1 -1.30 39 Stanford  8.31 13.62 6.19 3 0.17 40 Syracuse  7.57 16.61 5.84 3 -0.08 41 Georgia Tech  4.29 62.10 5.80 5 1.02 42 Kentucky  6.29 25.88 5.42 -10 -4.95 43 Oklahoma St.  4.95 43.77 5.37 5 1.46 44 Boston Coll.  6.53 17.46 5.18 -3 -1.30 45 Arizona St.  4.45 34.71 4.61 -5 -2.14 46 Auburn  6.18 -2.64 4.00 -2 -1.52 47 Air Force  3.00 38.41 3.82 14 3.15 48 Florida Atlantic  1.03 65.20 3.77 11 2.65 49 BYU  2.96 33.93 3.58 2 0.50 50 South Carolina  4.42 10.49 3.44 -5 -1.55 51 Pittsburgh  5.12 -0.90 3.37 16 3.49 52 Virginia  4.14 10.85 3.27 2 1.11 53 Nebraska  -0.06 66.38 3.10 -4 -0.57 54 Northwestern  4.35 1.21 2.95 -1 0.22 55 Maryland  2.49 22.12 2.71 -3 -0.06 56 Mississippi  -0.46 60.33 2.55 -9 -1.78 57 East. Michigan  1.79 16.92 2.00 6 1.48 58 Duke  4.69 -25.80 1.91 -1 0.21 59 Houston  2.82 0.18 1.89 -4 -0.22 60 Marshall  1.97 11.38 1.85 6 1.95 61 Memphis  1.46 16.14 1.74 10 2.98 62 Arizona  -2.20 58.47 1.30 -6 -0.63 63 Oregon  1.91 0.51 1.30 -3 0.58 64 Vanderbilt  4.14 -31.18 1.28 -2 0.72 65 Miami (OH)  0.53 13.58 1.00 7 2.47 66 Southern Miss  -3.25 65.92 0.95 2 1.16 67 Troy  0.98 2.34 0.76 8 2.74 68 Tennessee  0.88 1.52 0.66 5 2.37 69 Minnesota  0.63 4.04 0.61 11 4.01 70 USC  0.45 5.10 0.54 -6 0.41 71 Tulane  0.32 -1.85 0.12 -6 0.02 72 TCU  -1.03 14.85 0.02 -22 -3.09 73 San Diego St.  -1.34 15.29 -0.17 -15 -1.41 74 Arkansas St.  -2.40 21.74 -0.57 4 2.26 75 Toledo  1.10 -37.06 -1.02 -5 -0.54 76 Nevada  -1.86 -4.07 -1.43 14 4.04 77 Colorado  -3.19 9.30 -1.68 -8 -1.29 78 Georgia Southern 3.00 -91.72 -2.34 -4 -0.46 79 Middle Tenn. St.  0.09 -52.44 -2.42 9 2.55 80 California  -3.18 -12.75 -2.72 -1 0.25 81 UCLA  -3.76 -9.39 -2.95 -5 -0.49 82 LA Lafayette  -4.13 -7.77 -3.12 -1 0.38 83 Northern Illinois  -0.73 -57.38 -3.20 6 1.83 84 Baylor  -4.82 -0.57 -3.24 0 1.12 85 Florida Intl.  -1.55 -53.57 -3.57 10 3.23 86 Wyoming  -4.51 -13.04 -3.62 -9 -0.85 87 Indiana  -5.37 -11.95 -4.15 -1 0.48 88 W. Michigan  -8.48 9.81 -5.19 5 0.79 89 Louisiana Tech  -5.22 -40.98 -5.42 -6 -1.07 90 East Carolina  -10.54 29.01 -5.66 -5 -1.16 91 South Florida  -6.96 -33.13 -6.21 6 1.15 92 Wake Forest  -6.49 -48.35 -6.61 7 2.09 93 Florida St.  -8.73 -20.85 -6.80 1 -0.81 94 Kansas St.  -3.96 -94.69 -7.12 -2 -1.27 95 Arkansas  -8.70 -31.24 -7.28 -4 -1.80 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.44 -6.90 -7.28 0 -0.37 97 SMU  -6.13 -79.15 -7.84 -10 -3.00 98 Liberty -7.51 -67.04 -8.18 0 -0.70 99 North Carolina  -10.46 -33.94 -8.58 1 0.29 100 Virginia Tech  -8.05 -70.49 -8.70 -18 -4.61 101 LA Monroe  -11.66 -42.36 -9.78 5 1.90 102 Coastal Carolina -10.38 -65.22 -10.01 -1 -0.85 103 Ball St.  -10.69 -70.04 -10.44 -1 0.05 104 Kansas  -8.71 -103.64 -10.71 -1 -0.18 105 Navy  -9.38 -95.23 -10.76 4 3.37 106 Hawaii  -10.26 -91.26 -11.16 -1 0.43 107 Tulsa  -10.55 -88.60 -11.23 -3 -0.52 108 Old Dominion -14.52 -91.62 -14.02 11 4.46 109 New Mexico  -10.75 -153.19 -14.42 -2 -2.26 110 UNLV  -14.68 -101.65 -14.60 6 3.28 111 Akron  -11.34 -159.42 -15.10 -3 -1.01 112 Georgia State -16.79 -113.08 -16.55 2 0.17 113 Massachusetts -17.51 -111.24 -16.94 0 -0.95 114 Cent. Michigan  -17.26 -117.67 -17.08 -3 -1.68 115 Illinois  -15.62 -141.31 -17.10 -3 -1.37 116 West. Kentucky  -18.61 -109.50 -17.59 -1 0.15 117 UTEP  -17.19 -135.03 -17.85 1 0.44 118 Louisville  -20.04 -108.95 -18.52 -1 -0.46 119 Rutgers  -18.64 -138.45 -18.98 2 1.59 120 Colorado St.  -21.46 -105.47 -19.30 -10 -4.65 121 Oregon St.  -19.62 -131.96 -19.32 -1 -0.82 122 Bowling Green  -23.86 -123.77 -21.76 5 2.61 123 Texas St. -20.23 -186.41 -22.31 3 1.26 124 Rice  -23.03 -151.14 -22.51 0 0.41 125 Kent St.  -22.12 -166.06 -22.60 -3 -0.47 126 San Jose St.  -20.65 -197.37 -23.11 -1 0.08 127 South Alabama -22.79 -173.13 -23.39 -4 -1.17 128 New Mexico St.  -23.76 -175.40 -24.14 0 0.49 129 UT-San Antonio -22.78 -214.87 -25.36 0 -0.61 130 Connecticut  -27.39 -248.43 -30.02 0 1.59   Original DUSHEE By Conference AAC 16 UCF  16.31 66.31 14.01 23 Temple  12.92 91.96 12.97 25 Cincinnati  12.14 89.41 12.32 59 Houston  2.82 0.18 1.89 61 Memphis  1.46 16.14 1.74 71 Tulane  0.32 -1.85 0.12 90 East Carolina  -10.54 29.01 -5.66 91 South Florida  -6.96 -33.13 -6.21 97 SMU  -6.13 -79.15 -7.84 105 Navy  -9.38 -95.23 -10.76 107 Tulsa  -10.55 -88.60 -11.23 130 Connecticut  -27.39 -248.43 -30.02   ACC 2 Clemson  35.43 283.57 37.04 28 N.C. State  10.25 79.97 10.62 36 Miami (FL)  6.17 80.29 7.91 40 Syracuse  7.57 16.61 5.84 41 Georgia Tech  4.29 62.10 5.80 44 Boston Coll.  6.53 17.46 5.18 51 Pittsburgh  5.12 -0.90 3.37 52 Virginia  4.14 10.85 3.27 58 Duke  4.69 -25.80 1.91 92 Wake Forest  -6.49 -48.35 -6.61 93 Florida St.  -8.73 -20.85 -6.80 99 North Carolina  -10.46 -33.94 -8.58 100 Virginia Tech  -8.05 -70.49 -8.70 118 Louisville  -20.04 -108.95 -18.52   B1G 3 Michigan  27.07 234.88 29.17 8 Penn St.  18.55 89.66 16.61 9 Ohio St.  15.76 128.29 16.58 18 Iowa  13.23 97.38 13.43 27 Michigan St.  10.87 82.78 11.16 33 Purdue  8.58 60.17 8.57 35 Wisconsin  7.22 68.72 8.06 53 Nebraska  -0.06 66.38 3.10 54 Northwestern  4.35 1.21 2.95 55 Maryland  2.49 22.12 2.71 69 Minnesota  0.63 4.04 0.61 87 Indiana  -5.37 -11.95 -4.15 115 Illinois  -15.62 -141.31 -17.10 119 Rutgers  -18.64 -138.45 -18.98   BXII-II 4 Oklahoma  21.18 190.07 23.12 7 West Virginia  18.04 109.60 17.21 29 Texas Tech  8.95 77.85 9.65 30 Iowa St.  10.45 53.85 9.51 38 Texas  8.63 30.29 7.19 43 Oklahoma St.  4.95 43.77 5.37 72 TCU  -1.03 14.85 0.02 84 Baylor  -4.82 -0.57 -3.24 94 Kansas St.  -3.96 -94.69 -7.12 104 Kansas  -8.71 -103.64 -10.71   CUSA 19 UAB 11.20 125.68 13.42 26 North Texas  11.34 98.97 12.25 48 Florida Atlantic  1.03 65.20 3.77 60 Marshall  1.97 11.38 1.85 66 Southern Miss  -3.25 65.92 0.95 79 Middle Tenn. St.  0.09 -52.44 -2.42 85 Florida Intl.  -1.55 -53.57 -3.57 89 Louisiana Tech  -5.22 -40.98 -5.42 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.44 -6.90 -7.28 108 Old Dominion -14.52 -91.62 -14.02 116 West. Kentucky  -18.61 -109.50 -17.59 117 UTEP  -17.19 -135.03 -17.85 124 Rice  -23.03 -151.14 -22.51 129 UT-San Antonio -22.78 -214.87 -25.36   Indies 11 Notre Dame  15.19 110.27 15.35 22 Army  13.86 81.41 13.09 49 BYU  2.96 33.93 3.58 98 Liberty -7.51 -67.04 -8.18 113 Massachusetts -17.51 -111.24 -16.94 128 New Mexico St.  -23.76 -175.40 -24.14   MAC 32 Buffalo  7.84 71.20 8.60 34 Ohio  8.51 52.25 8.15 57 East. Michigan  1.79 16.92 2.00 65 Miami (OH)  0.53 13.58 1.00 75 Toledo  1.10 -37.06 -1.02 83 Northern Illinois  -0.73 -57.38 -3.20 88 W. Michigan  -8.48 9.81 -5.19 103 Ball St.  -10.69 -70.04 -10.44 111 Akron  -11.34 -159.42 -15.10 114 Cent. Michigan  -17.26 -117.67 -17.08 122 Bowling Green  -23.86 -123.77 -21.76 125 Kent St.  -22.12 -166.06 -22.60   MWC 6 Utah St.  20.23 79.84 17.26 10 Fresno St.  18.01 81.59 15.87 17 Boise St.  13.05 103.64 13.61 47 Air Force  3.00 38.41 3.82 73 San Diego St.  -1.34 15.29 -0.17 76 Nevada  -1.86 -4.07 -1.43 86 Wyoming  -4.51 -13.04 -3.62 106 Hawaii  -10.26 -91.26 -11.16 109 New Mexico  -10.75 -153.19 -14.42 110 UNLV  -14.68 -101.65 -14.60 120 Colorado St.  -21.46 -105.47 -19.30 126 San Jose St.  -20.65 -197.37 -23.11   P12 20 Washington St.  11.33 121.38 13.30 24 Utah  12.46 87.53 12.45 31 Washington  9.60 64.71 9.47 39 Stanford  8.31 13.62 6.19 45 Arizona St.  4.45 34.71 4.61 62 Arizona  -2.20 58.47 1.30 63 Oregon  1.91 0.51 1.30 70 USC  0.45 5.10 0.54 77 Colorado  -3.19 9.30 -1.68 80 California  -3.18 -12.75 -2.72 81 UCLA  -3.76 -9.39 -2.95 121 Oregon St.  -19.62 -131.96 -19.32   SBC 21 Appalachian State 13.73 86.53 13.25 67 Troy  0.98 2.34 0.76 74 Arkansas St.  -2.40 21.74 -0.57 78 Georgia Southern 3.00 -91.72 -2.34 82 LA Lafayette  -4.13 -7.77 -3.12 101 LA Monroe  -11.66 -42.36 -9.78 102 Coastal Carolina -10.38 -65.22 -10.01 112 Georgia State -16.79 -113.08 -16.55 123 Texas St. -20.23 -186.41 -22.31 127 South Alabama -22.79 -173.13 -23.39   SEC 1 Alabama  37.18 292.21 38.61 5 Georgia  23.39 138.51 22.15 12 Texas A&M  11.19 162.10 15.13 13 Mississippi St.  14.34 117.64 15.13 14 Missouri  14.38 99.87 14.31 15 LSU  15.78 75.35 14.09 37 Florida  7.96 41.07 7.25 42 Kentucky  6.29 25.88 5.42 46 Auburn  6.18 -2.64 4.00 50 South Carolina  4.42 10.49 3.44 56 Mississippi  -0.46 60.33 2.55 64 Vanderbilt  4.14 -31.18 1.28 68 Tennessee  0.88 1.52 0.66 95 Arkansas  -8.70 -31.24 -7.28   Extra Crispy Overall Ratings Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  40.39 292.12 43.71 2 Clemson  36.57 293.38 41.24 3 Michigan  29.77 237.99 33.52 4 Georgia  29.19 153.38 28.27 5 Oklahoma  24.45 183.68 26.85 6 Texas A&M  20.89 157.66 22.99 7 West Virginia  18.91 165.36 22.10 8 Mississippi St.  21.96 126.03 21.88 9 Penn St.  23.81 88.23 20.94 10 Missouri  23.36 92.78 20.91 11 LSU  25.13 64.44 20.46 12 Ohio St.  16.10 125.33 17.94 13 Iowa  17.89 96.67 17.48 14 Michigan St.  18.48 77.24 16.76 15 Notre Dame  15.11 111.95 16.51 16 Utah  15.97 81.63 15.34 17 Temple  14.84 93.95 15.29 18 Texas Tech  15.46 73.16 14.51 19 Fresno St.  14.31 81.93 14.25 20 Army  13.57 78.85 13.58 21 N.C. State  13.24 80.79 13.47 22 Utah St.  12.36 83.70 13.05 23 Purdue  13.66 66.58 12.93 24 Washington St.  8.02 128.90 12.75 25 Boise St.  10.53 91.54 12.28 26 UCF  12.35 61.34 11.75 27 Florida  14.50 35.23 11.69 28 Washington  12.27 60.71 11.67 29 Cincinnati  8.20 91.65 10.73 30 Kentucky  13.42 29.93 10.67 31 Appalachian State 7.51 93.23 10.36 32 UAB 4.11 130.08 10.21 33 Texas  12.26 31.06 9.96 34 Iowa St.  14.69 0.53 9.82 35 Stanford  12.57 19.70 9.51 36 Auburn  14.36 -4.19 9.33 37 Miami (FL)  7.04 77.42 9.14 38 North Texas  4.94 100.39 9.06 39 Wisconsin  7.34 67.68 8.78 40 Oklahoma St.  7.14 61.38 8.29 41 Nebraska  5.15 71.59 7.54 42 Pittsburgh  11.01 2.13 7.46 43 South Carolina  10.75 -2.80 7.00 44 Northwestern  10.11 1.21 6.81 45 Boston Coll.  9.47 7.64 6.75 46 Buffalo  3.03 70.95 6.10 47 BYU  4.86 43.87 5.76 48 Georgia Tech  2.71 61.74 5.35 49 Air Force  3.70 46.04 5.11 50 Tennessee  9.02 -19.55 4.89 51 Mississippi  3.04 49.16 4.85 52 TCU  5.27 21.29 4.74 53 Vanderbilt  10.08 -34.57 4.74 54 Ohio  1.13 61.17 4.27 55 Syracuse  4.75 14.05 3.98 56 Florida Atlantic  0.30 64.03 3.88 57 Arizona St.  3.23 27.78 3.75 58 Maryland  3.68 20.18 3.61 59 Minnesota  2.54 25.91 3.18 60 Duke  6.52 -25.42 2.89 61 Virginia  3.18 1.43 2.20 62 UCLA  3.49 -6.18 1.97 63 USC  1.14 17.89 1.79 64 Arizona  -3.49 58.86 1.05 65 Oregon  1.50 0.52 1.03 66 East. Michigan  -0.41 16.88 0.69 67 Miami (OH)  -1.34 19.02 0.20 68 Marshall  -1.23 12.09 -0.12 69 Tulane  0.79 -17.55 -0.48 70 Houston  -1.66 1.96 -0.99 71 Southern Miss  -7.53 68.39 -1.09 72 San Diego St.  -3.97 22.18 -1.37 73 Baylor  -2.39 -1.62 -1.69 74 Nevada  -3.34 4.92 -1.94 75 Toledo  0.26 -39.08 -2.07 76 Indiana  -2.00 -16.86 -2.30 77 California  -2.52 -14.25 -2.50 78 Arkansas St.  -5.78 22.57 -2.56 79 Memphis  -5.98 23.49 -2.63 80 Colorado  -4.12 -2.98 -2.92 81 LA Lafayette  -4.05 -7.95 -3.16 82 Troy  -5.20 3.54 -3.26 83 Arkansas  -2.36 -31.08 -3.36 84 Wyoming  -4.96 -15.15 -4.18 85 Northern Illinois  -1.67 -54.60 -4.25 86 Florida St.  -4.61 -24.08 -4.46 87 East Carolina  -10.17 40.14 -4.47 88 Middle Tenn. St.  -2.99 -49.62 -4.84 89 Wake Forest  -3.34 -47.64 -4.96 90 W. Michigan  -9.41 7.24 -5.86 91 Kansas St.  -1.05 -96.03 -6.22 92 SMU  -2.80 -89.15 -6.99 93 Georgia Southern -2.56 -92.11 -7.00 94 Louisiana Tech  -8.36 -37.36 -7.72 95 Navy  -4.57 -94.74 -8.49 96 UNC-Charlotte -12.77 -10.14 -9.10 97 North Carolina  -10.75 -34.34 -9.14 98 Virginia Tech  -7.89 -70.60 -9.32 99 Florida Intl.  -11.27 -46.91 -10.21 100 South Florida  -13.74 -33.51 -11.08 101 LA Monroe  -16.51 -25.70 -12.48 102 Kansas  -9.49 -109.38 -12.61 103 Liberty -13.45 -65.00 -12.70 104 Coastal Carolina -13.87 -62.46 -12.83 105 Tulsa  -12.50 -99.13 -14.03 106 Hawaii  -13.30 -91.37 -14.12 107 Ball St.  -15.45 -68.49 -14.24 108 UNLV  -16.62 -59.82 -14.52 109 Louisville  -12.87 -108.09 -14.79 110 Old Dominion -17.94 -80.79 -16.60 111 Akron  -13.71 -157.97 -18.22 112 Oregon St.  -15.58 -152.98 -19.17 113 Rutgers  -17.53 -144.30 -19.98 114 New Mexico  -13.66 -195.80 -20.35 115 Cent. Michigan  -21.07 -117.43 -20.79 116 Illinois  -17.34 -161.96 -20.86 117 West. Kentucky  -23.42 -109.29 -21.89 118 Colorado St.  -25.98 -87.91 -22.37 119 Georgia State -22.26 -135.10 -22.60 120 Massachusetts -22.80 -134.45 -22.92 121 UTEP  -24.75 -123.17 -23.58 122 Bowling Green  -26.89 -112.15 -24.37 123 South Alabama -25.03 -167.36 -26.30 124 Rice  -27.08 -150.05 -26.67 125 Kent St.  -25.54 -171.39 -26.87 126 San Jose St.  -23.31 -203.40 -27.23 127 New Mexico St.  -29.91 -168.81 -29.64 128 Connecticut  -26.75 -229.02 -30.99 129            Texas St.                        -32.17    -179.12        -31.74 130            UT-San Antonio             -29.23    -216.10        -31.90  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2018)

As we've discussed in previous weeks, Alabama and Clemson have been set for some time your clear top 2 (Alabama has retaken the top spot as the two continue to jockey in the rankings).  This week, Michigan has begun to separate from the pack as a clear #3 and Oklahoma has now created a little bit of space for itself in #4.  Were the season to end today, that is your playoff as far as DUSHEE is concerned.   The Frogs dropped again, despite the win, three spots to 50th.  DUSHEE has the Frogs as a field goal better than an average team, which is to say, pretty average.  DUSHEE does not think Kansas State is a very good team, and the fact that we beat them by one and were outgained, means that DUSHEE didn't think that was a performance worthy of a good team.  In fact, DUSHEE has the K-State win as the worst performance of the year for the Frogs.  TCU had worse Point Differentials against Texas and Kansas, but when adjusted for a season low Yardage Differential, DUSHEE rated the K-State game as almost 11-points below average.   TCU Week-to-Week Opp:       @ SMU      N OhSt      @ Tex    |     ISU       Ttech       OU   |   @ Kan       KSU PD:             21.00         7.25        -10.63   |    9.86       1.00       -4.25 |       -7.57      -6.43 YD:             61.00      150.50        29.63   |189.00     53.43    -95.00  |  118.00   -135.57 Score:        16.97        12.16         -5.64   |  15.77        3.27      -7.46  |      0.69      -10.88   Perhaps most concerning is that the Frogs are on a pretty clear downward trajectory as the Frogs' best three performances were in their first four games (excluding Southern) and three of their four worst performances have come in the last three weeks.  Put another way, the Frogs averaged a DUSHEE score of 9.81 during the first four games of the season and -3.60 during the second four.  Which shouldn't make us feel very good going into next week, when we face  ...   West Virginia Week-to-Week Opp:       N Tenn       KSU      @ Ttech   |    Kan      @ ISU       Bay    |  @ Tex PD:            18.71     25.57         13.57    |  11.86     -11.86    42.71   |     7.38 YD:          206.29     42.71         53.43    | 147.71  -344.71  304.57  |   89.25 Score:       22.51     19.13         11.65    |   15.09     -24.68    43.29  |     9.26   If you are looking for any kind of solace that the Frogs will have a chance this week in Morgantown, I can only offer two rather minor consolations.  First, the Mountaineers have played a softer conference slate than the Frogs so far, having not played OU yet and having beaten up on the dregs (Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor).  And for one common opponent, WVU was inexplicably destroyed by Iowa State while we managed to beat the Cyclones before the aforementioned 4-game swoon.  If the Frogs and Mountaineers who faced Iowa State show up on Saturday, the Frogs win by 40 points!!!   Unfortunately those are not the only two data points we have, and against our other four common opponents, the Fightin' Holgersons have been an average of 17-points better than the Frogs and 14-points better over their last four games.  Taking the whole season into account, DUSHEE has the Mountaineers as 14.5-point favorites at Milan Puskar Stadium with a 23% chance of winning.   Conference Ratings For the first time this season, the B1G has edged past the BXII-II as the second-best conference in FBS, albeit by a hundredth of a point.  Both conferences are well behind the SEC and well ahead of the ever-so mediocre ACC and P12.  The American Athletic (AAC) has picked a bad year to market themselves as a "Power" conference as they are now less than a point better than the Mountain West.   SEC 10.95 B10 5.77 B12 5.76 ACC 2.65 P12 2.06 AAC -2.72 MWC -3.60 CUSA -6.70 MAC -6.88 SBC -8.15   Week 10 Performances Top 3 50.17 -- Michigan vs. PSU (35 MOV, 219 YM) 48.89 -- Alabama at LSU (29 MOV, 380 YM) 43.60 -- Mississippi St. vs. Louisiana Tech (42 MOV, 294 YM)   Bottom 3 -45.17 Minnesota at Illinois (-24 MOV, -208 YM) -44.09 Florida Int'l. vs. Florida Atl. (-35 MOV, -266 YM) -44.39 Georgia So. at Louisiana-Monroe (-19 MOV, -359 YM)   Overall Ratings The only thing that changed in the Top 6 is that Alabama and Clemson switched positions at the top.  A&M, despite losing, climbed 3 spots to #7, benefitting from larger falls by the B1G trio of Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa.  Big movers at the top this week include UCF and UAB who jumped 13 and 16 spots, respectively, into the top 20.  Utah, Texas Tech, and Washington all took big tumbles out of the top 25.    The biggest overall gainers were Tulane, who jumped 25 spots in the rankings after destroying USF (DUSHEE was pretty prescient about them if you read my blog post from two weeks ago ...), and Louisiana-Monroe whose DUSHEE score rose 7.26 points after a three-score takedown of Georgia Southern.   The biggest overall losers this week, both in terms of ranking position and DUSHEE score were the Golden Gophers of Minnesota who lost over 6 points and dropped 26 spots in the rankings after losing by 24 to a truly terrible Illinois team.     Week 10     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  36.81 294.81 38.88 1 1.12 2 Clemson  37.07 283.53 38.51 -1 -1.19 3 Michigan  28.23 254.75 31.22 0 1.78 4 Oklahoma  23.25 202.68 25.36 0 -0.15 5 Georgia  23.75 123.80 21.86 0 -0.19 6 LSU  19.98 80.74 17.24 0 -3.89 7 Texas A&M  12.26 179.79 16.92 3 -0.03 8 Missouri  16.72 118.62 16.92 6 1.35 9 Ohio St.  15.25 137.37 16.85 -2 -3.12 10 Penn St.  18.25 83.45 16.23 -1 -1.92 11 North Texas  15.19 123.43 16.13 1 0.15 12 Fresno St.  18.49 76.32 16.04 4 1.13 13 Iowa  15.39 115.48 15.88 -5 -2.69 14 Utah St.  19.48 53.40 15.59 8 2.48 15 Mississippi St.  14.43 113.36 15.13 5 1.63 16 N.C. State  13.95 108.70 14.59 -5 -1.56 17 UCF  17.31 62.29 14.57 13 2.60 18 UAB 13.30 115.30 14.48 16 3.56 19 Notre Dame  13.96 102.47 14.29 -1 -0.04 20 Purdue  13.93 94.85 13.90 5 1.38 21 West Virginia  15.42 71.32 13.75 -4 -0.69 22 Temple  12.62 104.31 13.49 -1 0.01 23 Army  14.03 73.96 12.95 -10 -2.78 24 Michigan St.  12.51 84.32 12.44 11 1.91 25 Iowa St.  12.15 87.95 12.38 -6 -1.62 26 Washington St.  9.71 114.11 12.03 3 0.02 27 Appalachian State 12.38 76.68 11.98 -4 -1.05 28 Utah  11.58 79.32 11.58 -13 -3.47 29 Cincinnati  11.46 78.15 11.44 7 3.58 30 Texas Tech  11.31 78.46 11.36 -6 -1.22 31 Boise St.  10.18 85.98 10.97 0 -0.81 32 Kentucky  11.14 60.48 10.37 0 -1.33 33 Washington  9.81 68.30 9.86 -7 -2.57 34 Wisconsin  7.91 84.57 9.39 -1 -1.54 35 Miami (FL)  7.27 83.00 8.88 -8 -3.25 36 Ohio  9.08 56.22 8.79 15 5.47 37 Texas  9.31 46.96 8.49 2 1.03 38 Florida  9.23 32.21 7.72 -10 -4.38 39 Buffalo  7.27 57.36 7.64 1 0.56 40 Arizona St.  6.84 44.98 6.75 12 3.50 41 Boston Coll.  7.10 35.97 6.48 -4 -1.37 42 Stanford  8.17 11.67 6.02 6 0.74 43 Syracuse  7.47 19.11 5.91 -1 -0.33 44 Auburn  6.93 18.48 5.52 -3 -0.96 45 South Carolina  5.32 29.66 4.99 0 -1.01 46 Georgia Tech  3.33 52.68 4.79 4 0.61 47 Mississippi  1.53 67.92 4.33 2 0.04 48 Oklahoma St.  3.20 36.59 3.92 -2 -1.64 49 Nebraska  -0.60 83.67 3.67 6 1.03 50 TCU  1.28 46.37 3.11 -3 -2.37 51 BYU  2.34 31.21 3.08 9 1.97 52 Maryland  3.75 5.45 2.77 -8 -3.30 53 Northwestern  3.98 1.70 2.74 0 -0.18 54 Virginia  2.28 13.20 2.16 -11 -3.92 55 Houston  3.45 -3.84 2.11 -17 -5.51 56 Arizona  -1.65 62.26 1.93 7 1.55 57 Duke  5.48 -40.15 1.70 2 0.57 58 San Diego St.  -0.14 27.43 1.24 6 1.15 59 Florida Atlantic  -1.03 37.10 1.12 22 5.06 60 Oregon  0.98 1.20 0.71 2 0.22 61 Air Force  0.69 4.27 0.67 7 1.82 62 Vanderbilt  4.03 -43.54 0.57 -4 -0.60 63 East. Michigan  0.84 -1.00 0.51 2 0.56 64 USC  0.42 -3.22 0.13 -7 -1.47 65 Tulane  1.24 -14.95 0.10 25 5.65 66 Marshall  0.29 -6.08 -0.10 9 2.24 67 Pittsburgh  1.88 -28.20 -0.12 4 1.32 68 Southern Miss  -5.63 72.80 -0.21 2 0.95 69 Colorado  -2.00 19.34 -0.39 -8 -1.08 70 Toledo  3.09 -52.35 -0.49 10 3.41 71 Memphis  -1.24 -8.62 -1.24 6 1.66 72 Miami (OH)  -2.20 0.01 -1.47 1 0.31 73 Tennessee  -1.33 -16.85 -1.71 -4 -0.56 74 Georgia Southern 3.95 -92.86 -1.89 -18 -4.05 75 Troy  -1.99 -13.35 -1.98 3 1.39 76 UCLA  -3.43 -3.64 -2.46 -9 -1.50 77 Wyoming  -3.69 -6.33 -2.77 7 1.29 78 Arkansas St.  -5.35 15.07 -2.83 4 1.16 79 California  -4.17 -4.00 -2.97 7 1.47 80 Minnesota  -3.62 -20.25 -3.40 -26 -6.08 81 LA Lafayette  -4.33 -12.67 -3.50 4 0.70 82 Virginia Tech  -3.70 -33.50 -4.09 6 0.74 83 Louisiana Tech  -3.81 -37.09 -4.35 -17 -3.81 84 Baylor  -4.43 -28.96 -4.36 -1 -0.31 85 East Carolina  -10.70 54.16 -4.50 -13 -2.86 86 Indiana  -7.10 2.27 -4.62 -12 -2.37 87 SMU  -3.43 -52.34 -4.83 14 5.29 88 Middle Tenn. St.  -1.77 -77.99 -4.97 7 1.69 89 Northern Illinois  -3.49 -55.71 -5.04 0 0.49 90 Nevada  -4.51 -50.66 -5.47 2 0.52 91 Arkansas  -8.29 0.96 -5.48 2 0.57 92 Kansas St.  -2.83 -81.62 -5.85 -1 0.07 93 W. Michigan  -9.20 3.25 -5.98 -6 -1.40 94 Florida St.  -7.88 -15.35 -6.00 0 0.12 95 Florida Intl.  -5.37 -66.28 -6.80 -19 -4.37 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.97 8.19 -6.91 1 0.52 97 South Florida  -8.26 -38.23 -7.36 -1 -0.57 98 Liberty -5.96 -72.11 -7.48 -19 -4.00 99 Wake Forest  -8.42 -63.68 -8.71 3 1.52 100 North Carolina  -11.95 -18.50 -8.87 -2 0.01 101 Coastal Carolina -8.72 -68.64 -9.15 6 2.74 102 Ball St.  -10.80 -67.65 -10.49 -2 -0.85 103 Kansas  -8.01 -106.65 -10.53 -4 -1.24 104 Tulsa  -10.33 -78.58 -10.71 -1 0.13 105 Hawaii  -10.56 -93.51 -11.59 -1 -0.28 106 LA Monroe  -13.07 -60.77 -11.67 12 7.26 107 New Mexico  -8.88 -128.27 -12.16 -2 -0.69 108 Akron  -11.13 -137.32 -14.10 1 -0.28 109 Navy  -12.92 -113.38 -14.13 -3 -2.35 110 Colorado St.  -17.79 -57.40 -14.65 -2 -1.11 111 Cent. Michigan  -15.59 -102.96 -15.40 -1 -1.23 112 Illinois  -13.09 -143.88 -15.73 9 4.66 113 Massachusetts -16.17 -107.07 -15.99 4 2.66 114 Georgia State -16.99 -110.79 -16.71 1 1.30 115 West. Kentucky  -18.87 -106.12 -17.74 -4 -2.61 116 UNLV  -17.12 -132.81 -17.87 3 1.81 117 Louisville  -19.47 -104.44 -18.06 -5 -1.34 118 UTEP  -17.72 -133.04 -18.29 -4 -0.34 119 Old Dominion -19.25 -116.01 -18.48 -3 0.09 120 Oregon St.  -18.88 -121.75 -18.51 -7 -0.86 121 Rutgers  -19.45 -156.23 -20.56 3 1.97 122 Kent St.  -21.64 -158.31 -22.13 3 1.05 123 South Alabama -22.01 -155.07 -22.22 -3 -1.96 124 Rice  -23.24 -152.47 -22.91 -1 -0.95 125 San Jose St.  -21.57 -180.96 -23.19 -3 -1.68 126 Texas St. -21.00 -196.60 -23.57 3 2.01 127 Bowling Green  -25.81 -147.26 -24.37 0 0.08 128 New Mexico St.  -23.84 -179.62 -24.63 0 0.21 129 UT-San Antonio -21.51 -213.96 -24.75 -3 -1.07 130 Connecticut  -27.91 -267.25 -31.61 0 -0.24   By Conference AAC 17 UCF  17.31 62.29 14.57 22 Temple  12.62 104.31 13.49 29 Cincinnati  11.46 78.15 11.44 55 Houston  3.45 -3.84 2.11 65 Tulane  1.24 -14.95 0.10 71 Memphis  -1.24 -8.62 -1.24 85 East Carolina  -10.70 54.16 -4.50 87 SMU  -3.43 -52.34 -4.83 97 South Florida  -8.26 -38.23 -7.36 104 Tulsa  -10.33 -78.58 -10.71 109 Navy  -12.92 -113.38 -14.13 130 Connecticut  -27.91 -267.25 -31.61   ACC 2 Clemson  37.07 283.53 38.51 16 N.C. State  13.95 108.70 14.59 35 Miami (FL)  7.27 83.00 8.88 41 Boston Coll.  7.10 35.97 6.48 43 Syracuse  7.47 19.11 5.91 46 Georgia Tech  3.33 52.68 4.79 54 Virginia  2.28 13.20 2.16 57 Duke  5.48 -40.15 1.70 67 Pittsburgh  1.88 -28.20 -0.12 82 Virginia Tech  -3.70 -33.50 -4.09 94 Florida St.  -7.88 -15.35 -6.00 99 Wake Forest  -8.42 -63.68 -8.71 100 North Carolina  -11.95 -18.50 -8.87 117 Louisville  -19.47 -104.44 -18.06   B1G 3 Michigan  28.23 254.75 31.22 9 Ohio St.  15.25 137.37 16.85 10 Penn St.  18.25 83.45 16.23 13 Iowa  15.39 115.48 15.88 20 Purdue  13.93 94.85 13.90 24 Michigan St.  12.51 84.32 12.44 34 Wisconsin  7.91 84.57 9.39 49 Nebraska  -0.60 83.67 3.67 52 Maryland  3.75 5.45 2.77 53 Northwestern  3.98 1.70 2.74 80 Minnesota  -3.62 -20.25 -3.40 86 Indiana  -7.10 2.27 -4.62 112 Illinois  -13.09 -143.88 -15.73 121 Rutgers  -19.45 -156.23 -20.56   BXII-II 4 Oklahoma  23.25 202.68 25.36 21 West Virginia  15.42 71.32 13.75 25 Iowa St.  12.15 87.95 12.38 30 Texas Tech  11.31 78.46 11.36 37 Texas  9.31 46.96 8.49 48 Oklahoma St.  3.20 36.59 3.92 50 TCU  1.28 46.37 3.11 84 Baylor  -4.43 -28.96 -4.36 92 Kansas St.  -2.83 -81.62 -5.85 103 Kansas  -8.01 -106.65 -10.53   CUSA 11 North Texas  15.19 123.43 16.13 18 UAB 13.30 115.30 14.48 59 Florida Atlantic  -1.03 37.10 1.12 66 Marshall  0.29 -6.08 -0.10 68 Southern Miss  -5.63 72.80 -0.21 83 Louisiana Tech  -3.81 -37.09 -4.35 88 Middle Tenn. St.  -1.77 -77.99 -4.97 95 Florida Intl.  -5.37 -66.28 -6.80 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.97 8.19 -6.91 115 West. Kentucky  -18.87 -106.12 -17.74 118 UTEP  -17.72 -133.04 -18.29 119 Old Dominion -19.25 -116.01 -18.48 124 Rice  -23.24 -152.47 -22.91 129 UT-San Antonio -21.51 -213.96 -24.75   Indies 19 Notre Dame  13.96 102.47 14.29 23 Army  14.03 73.96 12.95 51 BYU  2.34 31.21 3.08 98 Liberty -5.96 -72.11 -7.48 113 Massachusetts -16.17 -107.07 -15.99 128 New Mexico St.  -23.84 -179.62 -24.63   MAC 36 Ohio  9.08 56.22 8.79 39 Buffalo  7.27 57.36 7.64 63 East. Michigan  0.84 -1.00 0.51 70 Toledo  3.09 -52.35 -0.49 72 Miami (OH)  -2.20 0.01 -1.47 89 Northern Illinois  -3.49 -55.71 -5.04 93 W. Michigan  -9.20 3.25 -5.98 102 Ball St.  -10.80 -67.65 -10.49 108 Akron  -11.13 -137.32 -14.10 111 Cent. Michigan  -15.59 -102.96 -15.40 122 Kent St.  -21.64 -158.31 -22.13 127 Bowling Green  -25.81 -147.26 -24.37   MWC 12 Fresno St.  18.49 76.32 16.04 14 Utah St.  19.48 53.40 15.59 31 Boise St.  10.18 85.98 10.97 58 San Diego St.  -0.14 27.43 1.24 61 Air Force  0.69 4.27 0.67 77 Wyoming  -3.69 -6.33 -2.77 90 Nevada  -4.51 -50.66 -5.47 105 Hawaii  -10.56 -93.51 -11.59 107 New Mexico  -8.88 -128.27 -12.16 110 Colorado St.  -17.79 -57.40 -14.65 116 UNLV  -17.12 -132.81 -17.87 125 San Jose St.  -21.57 -180.96 -23.19   P12 26 Washington St.  9.71 114.11 12.03 28 Utah  11.58 79.32 11.58 33 Washington  9.81 68.30 9.86 40 Arizona St.  6.84 44.98 6.75 42 Stanford  8.17 11.67 6.02 56 Arizona  -1.65 62.26 1.93 60 Oregon  0.98 1.20 0.71 64 USC  0.42 -3.22 0.13 69 Colorado  -2.00 19.34 -0.39 76 UCLA  -3.43 -3.64 -2.46 79 California  -4.17 -4.00 -2.97 120 Oregon St.  -18.88 -121.75 -18.51   SBC 27 Appalachian State 12.38 76.68 11.98 74 Georgia Southern 3.95 -92.86 -1.89 75 Troy  -1.99 -13.35 -1.98 78 Arkansas St.  -5.35 15.07 -2.83 81 LA Lafayette  -4.33 -12.67 -3.50 101 Coastal Carolina -8.72 -68.64 -9.15 106 LA Monroe  -13.07 -60.77 -11.67 114 Georgia State -16.99 -110.79 -16.71 123 South Alabama -22.01 -155.07 -22.22 126 Texas St. -21.00 -196.60 -23.57   SEC 1 Alabama  36.81 294.81 38.88 5 Georgia  23.75 123.80 21.86 6 LSU  19.98 80.74 17.24 7 Texas A&M  12.26 179.79 16.92 8 Missouri  16.72 118.62 16.92 15 Mississippi St.  14.43 113.36 15.13 32 Kentucky  11.14 60.48 10.37 38 Florida  9.23 32.21 7.72 44 Auburn  6.93 18.48 5.52 45 South Carolina  5.32 29.66 4.99 47 Mississippi  1.53 67.92 4.33 62 Vanderbilt  4.03 -43.54 0.57 73 Tennessee  -1.33 -16.85 -1.71 91 Arkansas  -8.29 0.96 -5.48    

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2018)

No movement in the top 4 although Clemson increased its lead over Bama a bit this week and the Frogs fell (only) 4 more spots to 47th, helped by outgaining Kansas by 200 yards despite losing.  The largest faller this week in both ranking and score was Baylor, who dropped 26 spots in the ranking to 83rd.  The biggest climber this week was Georgia Southern who beat DUSHEE darling Appalachian State and climbed 33 spots to 56th.   TCU Week-by-Week The Kansas game looks bad, but maybe not as bad as you might imagine.  The Frogs did almost 5 points worse against Kansas than their average opponent has but 115 yards better, making the Kansas game only the third worst on the season for the Frogs in DUSHEE score (behind OU and Texas).  The SMU, Ohio State and Iowa State games still look like solid performances, although all of those games are getting awfully far away in the rearview mirror.   Opp:      @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex   |   ISU      Ttech      OU      |   @ Kan PD:           17.17         9.29        -9.86   |   7.00        2.50      -2.00 |    -4.67 YD:           21.17     169.71       41.43  | 190.00    93.00  -101.29 |  115.17 Score:      12.46       14.33        -4.58  |    13.78      6.13      -6.19  |     2.41   TCU's Next Opponent (Kansas State) Kansas State has, if possible, been even more underwhelming than the Frogs.  By far their best performance came against Oklahoma State in Week 7, a 31-12 whooping of the Fightin' Mullets, and in that game, K-State garnered a score 2 TDs better than any performance TCU has had this year.  That said, their performances against their two toughest opponents, Mississippi State and Oklahoma, were 3 TDs worse than any performance TCU has had this year.  Outside of Okie St. and UTSA, K-State has been a below average team, usually well-below average.   Opp:       MissSt      UTSA      WVU   |     Tex      @ Bay      OkSt    |    @ OU PD:         -15.83       14.43    -13.40   |     1.57     -13.00     28.67   |     -15.71 YD:       -279.83       10.57    -60.00   | -102.57  -103.00   181.00   |   -325.29 Score:    -23.98       10.13    -11.81  |      -3.87     -13.61     27.80   |     -26.08   I find this difficult to type, but DUSHEE has TCU as a better than 2 TD favorite at home against the Fightin' Snyders, winning about 78% of the time.  DUSHEE has K-State as only slightly better than Kansas.  Of course, you see how well we did against the Jayhawks.   Performances of the Week Top 3 45.78 -- Clemson at Florida St. (49 MOV, 277 YM) 43.66 -- West Virginia vs. Baylor (44 MOV, 281 YM) 42.96 -- Utah State vs. New Mexico (42 MOV, 413 YM)   Bottom 3 -35.51 -- Ball St. vs. Ohio (-38 MOV, -312 YM) -33.84 -- New Mexico at Utah State (-42 MOV, -413 YM) -31.59 -- Baylor at WVU (-44 MOV, -281 YM)   Conference Rankings SEC 11.53 B12 6.58 B10 6.37 ACC 3.23 P12 2.34 AAC -3.34 MWC -4.07 CUSA -6.78 MAC -7.56 SBC -9.10   Strength of Schedule Top 10 1 A&M 11.95 2 Mizz 11.87 3 Tenn 11.55 4 LSU 10.00 5 ISU 9.76 6 UCLA 9.05 7 TCU 8.59 8 MissSt 8.32 9 Neb 7.97 10 MichSt 7.87   Bottom 10 122 USU -7.08 123 USM -8.26 124 Troy -8.31 125 Mem -8.49 126 UCF -8.57 127 UTSA -9.24 128 Ohio -9.64 129 USF -10.15 130 FIU -10.16 131 TexSt -16.04   Overall Ratings Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson  37.86 301.37 39.70 0 0.21 2 Alabama  36.47 280.20 37.76 0 -0.99 3 Michigan  25.86 254.14 29.43 0 -0.12 4 Oklahoma  24.17 196.03 25.52 0 0.54 5 Georgia  23.95 126.58 22.04 2 2.19 6 LSU  23.19 118.33 21.14 -1 -1.58 7 Ohio St.  18.49 159.42 19.98 1 0.29 8 Iowa  17.78 140.03 18.57 2 -0.33 9 Penn St.  21.31 82.18 18.15 0 -1.15 10 Texas A&M  12.68 177.00 16.95 -4 -3.76 11 N.C. State  14.17 139.63 16.15 2 -1.83 12 North Texas  14.74 128.17 15.98 2 -1.67 13 Army  16.41 99.72 15.73 6 0.79 14 Missouri  15.39 110.54 15.56 -2 -2.61 15 Utah  14.93 106.17 15.05 6 0.61 16 Fresno St.  16.77 77.76 14.91 10 1.84 17 West Virginia  16.33 74.08 14.44 15 4.02 18 Notre Dame  15.39 84.80 14.33 2 -0.29 19 Iowa St.  12.59 116.88 14.00 10 2.23 20 Mississippi St.  12.57 106.69 13.50 4 -0.36 21 Temple  12.70 104.51 13.48 4 0.19 22 Utah St.  17.48 30.22 13.10 17 6.11 23 Appalachian State 14.35 72.33 13.04 -12 -5.54 24 Texas Tech  11.73 99.14 12.58 -2 -1.83 25 Purdue  12.95 81.15 12.52 -10 -4.07 26 Washington  11.23 103.14 12.43 -8 -3.17 27 Miami (FL)  10.89 101.57 12.14 -10 -3.92 28 Florida  13.63 62.88 12.10 -5 -1.92 29 Washington St.  9.98 111.54 12.01 -1 -0.45 30 UCF  14.32 50.52 11.97 0 1.40 31 Boise St.  11.00 92.59 11.78 0 1.31 32 Kentucky  12.24 73.72 11.70 -5 -1.25 33 Wisconsin  9.25 99.15 10.93 -17 -5.29 34 UAB 9.72 92.28 10.91 -1 1.18 35 Michigan St.  11.15 64.63 10.54 2 2.41 36 Cincinnati  7.83 55.08 7.87 0 -0.91 37 Boston Coll.  8.51 45.43 7.85 14 3.72 38 Houston  8.57 39.70 7.62 14 3.95 39 Texas  7.96 44.79 7.46 -5 -2.09 40 Buffalo  6.70 54.45 7.08 2 1.07 41 Auburn  6.83 40.09 6.48 0 0.21 42 Syracuse  6.89 34.44 6.24 7 1.48 43 Virginia  5.44 51.16 6.08 -5 -0.94 44 Maryland  6.42 37.15 6.06 2 0.53 45 South Carolina  5.68 46.06 6.00 -10 -3.28 46 Oklahoma St.  5.91 33.57 5.55 -1 -0.14 47 TCU  2.78 75.60 5.48 -4 -0.46 48 Stanford  8.76 -11.86 5.27 2 0.98 49 Mississippi  2.04 60.95 4.29 -1 -0.49 50 Georgia Tech  3.95 32.10 4.18 8 2.75 51 Ohio  3.30 23.28 3.32 29 7.11 52 Arizona St.  4.08 11.08 3.25 2 0.20 53 Northwestern  3.27 15.40 2.92 12 3.11 54 Minnesota  1.53 34.59 2.68 2 0.77 55 Nebraska  -2.30 86.96 2.64 -2 -0.54 56 Georgia Southern 7.43 -58.11 2.16 33 7.91 57 USC  2.45 -0.89 1.59 4 0.58 58 Vanderbilt  4.73 -41.44 1.17 2 -0.14 59 Duke  4.40 -37.67 1.13 -12 -4.36 60 BYU  1.08 8.02 1.11 -1 -0.22 61 Colorado  -1.52 35.38 0.69 -21 -5.60 62 Oregon  -0.38 15.71 0.50 -18 -5.31 63 Arizona  -2.87 47.64 0.38 28 6.54 64 San Diego St.  -0.07 2.93 0.09 -1 -0.44 65 East. Michigan  1.69 -24.53 -0.05 -10 -2.00 66 Louisiana Tech  0.00 -11.20 -0.54 0 -0.15 67 UCLA  -1.47 0.26 -0.97 -5 -1.73 68 Air Force  -0.51 -16.85 -1.15 11 2.29 69 Tennessee  -1.27 -6.29 -1.15 1 0.14 70 Southern Miss  -8.02 87.23 -1.16 3 1.02 71 Pittsburgh  0.81 -41.32 -1.44 6 1.81 72 East Carolina  -8.41 82.75 -1.64 -4 -0.95 73 Miami (OH)  -2.36 -4.28 -1.78 -2 0.24 74 Indiana  -4.63 17.37 -2.26 -10 -2.18 75 Marshall  -0.75 -38.46 -2.35 0 0.14 76 Florida Intl.  -0.08 -49.57 -2.43 8 2.25 77 Memphis  -2.48 -26.13 -2.90 6 1.27 78 Troy  -3.09 -27.22 -3.37 -2 -0.15 79 Liberty -4.00 -16.93 -3.48 -1 -0.10 80 Toledo  -0.59 -73.02 -3.89 16 3.97 81 Florida Atlantic  -6.38 6.43 -3.94 5 1.07 82 Arkansas St.  -5.97 -0.08 -3.99 -10 -1.88 83 Baylor  -4.84 -17.39 -4.06 -26 -5.77 84 Wyoming  -4.67 -19.76 -4.06 4 1.38 85 LA Lafayette  -5.69 -8.56 -4.21 2 0.88 86 California  -6.19 -6.50 -4.44 6 2.78 87 W. Michigan  -7.49 8.68 -4.58 -18 -3.73 88 Virginia Tech  -3.88 -46.90 -4.84 -21 -4.28 89 Northern Illinois  -3.74 -63.22 -5.53 -8 -1.57 90 Tulane  -5.47 -39.62 -5.55 5 2.07 91 Kansas St.  -1.90 -97.02 -5.92 -17 -3.51 92 Nevada  -5.08 -54.32 -5.99 1 1.37 93 Arkansas  -8.73 -4.85 -6.05 -8 -1.36 94 Florida St.  -6.60 -35.74 -6.12 -12 -2.16 95 Middle Tenn. St.  -2.89 -98.68 -6.66 7 3.82 96 South Florida  -6.13 -56.39 -6.79 -2 0.61 97 UNC-Charlotte -10.79 -5.11 -7.44 2 1.17 98 North Carolina  -13.19 -1.77 -8.88 0 -0.54 99 Kansas  -5.96 -110.72 -9.29 2 -0.32 100 Ball St.  -9.67 -66.63 -9.65 -10 -3.72 101 SMU  -8.89 -87.36 -10.12 8 3.44 102 Wake Forest  -9.21 -85.05 -10.22 3 1.79 103 Tulsa  -11.25 -69.58 -10.84 -3 -2.06 104 Hawaii  -10.30 -92.44 -11.30 2 1.19 105 New Mexico  -9.34 -109.23 -11.47 -8 -3.33 106 Navy  -9.86 -108.53 -11.78 -2 -0.18 107 Coastal Carolina -11.93 -82.03 -11.89 1 1.20 108 Colorado St.  -17.04 -45.54 -13.55 -5 -3.01 109 Akron  -11.62 -126.64 -13.82 3 1.90 110 Cent. Michigan  -15.03 -86.50 -14.17 -3 -1.30 111 West. Kentucky  -16.30 -88.83 -15.13 -1 -0.82 112 Louisville  -17.13 -110.36 -16.72 -1 -2.36 113 Oregon St.  -18.81 -106.54 -17.65 9 5.04 114 UTEP  -17.42 -132.01 -17.95 5 2.81 115 Georgia State -18.42 -119.67 -18.02 2 1.50 116 Old Dominion -19.53 -115.67 -18.57 -3 -1.91 117 Massachusetts -17.19 -149.77 -18.64 -1 0.28 118 LA Monroe  -19.76 -120.05 -18.93 0 1.04 119 UNLV  -18.05 -159.43 -19.68 -4 -1.57 120 South Alabama -20.10 -143.10 -20.26 0 1.38 121 Illinois  -16.94 -189.58 -20.39 -7 -3.28 122 San Jose St.  -20.29 -166.35 -21.51 3 2.97 123 Rice  -22.24 -148.85 -21.97 3 3.69 124 Rutgers  -21.51 -170.86 -22.54 0 0.94 125 Kent St.  -22.13 -175.50 -23.18 -2 0.23 126 UT-San Antonio -20.89 -203.12 -23.67 -5 -1.16 127 Bowling Green  -26.64 -139.53 -24.45 0 1.81 128 New Mexico St.  -24.67 -175.01 -24.84 1 3.08 129 Texas St. -23.15 -211.50 -25.58 -1 2.17 130 Connecticut  -26.77 -281.79 -31.37 0 -0.43   By Conference AAC 21 Temple  12.70 104.51 13.48 30 UCF  14.32 50.52 11.97 36 Cincinnati  7.83 55.08 7.87 38 Houston  8.57 39.70 7.62 72 East Carolina  -8.41 82.75 -1.64 77 Memphis  -2.48 -26.13 -2.90 90 Tulane  -5.47 -39.62 -5.55 96 South Florida  -6.13 -56.39 -6.79 101 SMU  -8.89 -87.36 -10.12 103 Tulsa  -11.25 -69.58 -10.84 106 Navy  -9.86 -108.53 -11.78 130 Connecticut  -26.77 -281.79 -31.37   ACC 1 Clemson  37.86 301.37 39.70 11 N.C. State  14.17 139.63 16.15 27 Miami (FL)  10.89 101.57 12.14 37 Boston Coll.  8.51 45.43 7.85 42 Syracuse  6.89 34.44 6.24 43 Virginia  5.44 51.16 6.08 50 Georgia Tech  3.95 32.10 4.18 59 Duke  4.40 -37.67 1.13 71 Pittsburgh  0.81 -41.32 -1.44 88 Virginia Tech  -3.88 -46.90 -4.84 94 Florida St.  -6.60 -35.74 -6.12 98 North Carolina  -13.19 -1.77 -8.88 102 Wake Forest  -9.21 -85.05 -10.22 112 Louisville  -17.13 -110.36 -16.72   B1G 3 Michigan  25.86 254.14 29.43 7 Ohio St.  18.49 159.42 19.98 8 Iowa  17.78 140.03 18.57 9 Penn St.  21.31 82.18 18.15 25 Purdue  12.95 81.15 12.52 33 Wisconsin  9.25 99.15 10.93 35 Michigan St.  11.15 64.63 10.54 44 Maryland  6.42 37.15 6.06 53 Northwestern  3.27 15.40 2.92 54 Minnesota  1.53 34.59 2.68 55 Nebraska  -2.30 86.96 2.64 74 Indiana  -4.63 17.37 -2.26 121 Illinois  -16.94 -189.58 -20.39 124 Rutgers  -21.51 -170.86 -22.54   BXII-II 4 Oklahoma  24.17 196.03 25.52 17 West Virginia  16.33 74.08 14.44 19 Iowa St.  12.59 116.88 14.00 24 Texas Tech  11.73 99.14 12.58 39 Texas  7.96 44.79 7.46 46 Oklahoma St.  5.91 33.57 5.55 47 TCU  2.78 75.60 5.48 83 Baylor  -4.84 -17.39 -4.06 91 Kansas St.  -1.90 -97.02 -5.92 99 Kansas  -5.96 -110.72 -9.29   CUSA 12 North Texas  14.74 128.17 15.98 34 UAB 9.72 92.28 10.91 66 Louisiana Tech  0.00 -11.20 -0.54 70 Southern Miss  -8.02 87.23 -1.16 75 Marshall  -0.75 -38.46 -2.35 76 Florida Intl.  -0.08 -49.57 -2.43 81 Florida Atlantic  -6.38 6.43 -3.94 95 Middle Tenn. St.  -2.89 -98.68 -6.66 97 UNC-Charlotte -10.79 -5.11 -7.44 111 West. Kentucky  -16.30 -88.83 -15.13 114 UTEP  -17.42 -132.01 -17.95 116 Old Dominion -19.53 -115.67 -18.57 123 Rice  -22.24 -148.85 -21.97 126 UT-San Antonio -20.89 -203.12 -23.67   Indies 13 Army  16.41 99.72 15.73 18 Notre Dame  15.39 84.80 14.33 60 BYU  1.08 8.02 1.11 79 Liberty -4.00 -16.93 -3.48 117 Massachusetts -17.19 -149.77 -18.64 128 New Mexico St.  -24.67 -175.01 -24.84   MAC 40 Buffalo  6.70 54.45 7.08 51 Ohio  3.30 23.28 3.32 65 East. Michigan  1.69 -24.53 -0.05 73 Miami (OH)  -2.36 -4.28 -1.78 80 Toledo  -0.59 -73.02 -3.89 87 W. Michigan  -7.49 8.68 -4.58 89 Northern Illinois  -3.74 -63.22 -5.53 100 Ball St.  -9.67 -66.63 -9.65 109 Akron  -11.62 -126.64 -13.82 110 Cent. Michigan  -15.03 -86.50 -14.17 125 Kent St.  -22.13 -175.50 -23.18 127 Bowling Green  -26.64 -139.53 -24.45   MWC 16 Fresno St.  16.77 77.76 14.91 22 Utah St.  17.48 30.22 13.10 31 Boise St.  11.00 92.59 11.78 64 San Diego St.  -0.07 2.93 0.09 68 Air Force  -0.51 -16.85 -1.15 84 Wyoming  -4.67 -19.76 -4.06 92 Nevada  -5.08 -54.32 -5.99 104 Hawaii  -10.30 -92.44 -11.30 105 New Mexico  -9.34 -109.23 -11.47 108 Colorado St.  -17.04 -45.54 -13.55 119 UNLV  -18.05 -159.43 -19.68 122 San Jose St.  -20.29 -166.35 -21.51   P12 15 Utah  14.93 106.17 15.05 26 Washington  11.23 103.14 12.43 29 Washington St.  9.98 111.54 12.01 48 Stanford  8.76 -11.86 5.27 52 Arizona St.  4.08 11.08 3.25 57 USC  2.45 -0.89 1.59 61 Colorado  -1.52 35.38 0.69 62 Oregon  -0.38 15.71 0.50 63 Arizona  -2.87 47.64 0.38 67 UCLA  -1.47 0.26 -0.97 86 California  -6.19 -6.50 -4.44 113 Oregon St.  -18.81 -106.54 -17.65   SBC 23 Appalachian State 14.35 72.33 13.04 56 Georgia Southern 7.43 -58.11 2.16 78 Troy  -3.09 -27.22 -3.37 82 Arkansas St.  -5.97 -0.08 -3.99 85 LA Lafayette  -5.69 -8.56 -4.21 107 Coastal Carolina -11.93 -82.03 -11.89 115 Georgia State -18.42 -119.67 -18.02 118 LA Monroe  -19.76 -120.05 -18.93 120 South Alabama -20.10 -143.10 -20.26 129 Texas St. -23.15 -211.50 -25.58   SEC 2 Alabama  36.47 280.20 37.76 5 Georgia  23.95 126.58 22.04 6 LSU  23.19 118.33 21.14 10 Texas A&M  12.68 177.00 16.95 14 Missouri  15.39 110.54 15.56 20 Mississippi St.  12.57 106.69 13.50 28 Florida  13.63 62.88 12.10 32 Kentucky  12.24 73.72 11.70 41 Auburn  6.83 40.09 6.48 45 South Carolina  5.68 46.06 6.00 49 Mississippi  2.04 60.95 4.29 58 Vanderbilt  4.73 -41.44 1.17 69 Tennessee  -1.27 -6.29 -1.15 93 Arkansas  -8.73 -4.85 -6.05    

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2018)

I figure interest in this blog is niche at best, even when the Frogs are playing well.  So I assume at this point, I'm just writing this for myself.  But nonetheless, for this week's entry in the second saddest diary ever written (allowing that Anne Frank's is probably still a little sadder) ...   Clemson reclaims the top spot in the rankings, but it really is just Clemson, Bama, and the rest of the field at this point.  There is an almost 10-point gap between those two teams and 3rd ranked Michigan.  The Sooners rose to the 4th spot in the rankings, due mostly to Ohio State and Penn State falling significantly.   A team I'd like to focus on this week is USF, which if DUSHEE is any judge, may be the worst 7-0 team in the history of major college football.  After beating the lowest-ranked DUSHEE team, UConn, by only a TD, DUSHEE now has Charlie Strong's Bulls ranked 94th.  That "win" garnered USF a DUSHEE score of -31.40 for the week.   When combined with playing the second easiest schedule in FBS ... USF's opponents are, on average, almost 2TDs worse than an average FBS team ... Georgia Tech (ranked 58th), Illinois (114), East Carolina (68), UMass (116), Tulsa (100), UConn (130) ... and only beating that ridiculously easy schedule by an average of 8-points, USF appears to be a paper tiger of the highest order.    Things start getting a little tougher for the Bulls next week with @Houston (52), Tulane (95), @Cincinnati (36), @Temple (25), and UCF (30) ... the remaining 5 games include the 4 best teams in the American as rated by DUSHEE.  (Although DUSHEE thinks UCF is extremely overrated too, just not as much as USF.)  The only one of those 5 games where USF should be favored is the game at home against Tulane and DUSHEE expects the Bulls to be heavy underdogs for all of the other 4 (best chance of winning is 23% at Houston this week).  DUSHEE gives USF an 0.05% chance of going undefeated through those 5 games.   Frogs Because DUSHEE has OU still very highly rated and had little expectation that the Frogs would be competitive, the Frogs didn't really drop as much as you might think, falling four spots to 43rd.  The Frogs week-to-week look like this now:   Opp:      @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex   |   ISU      Ttech      OU PD:         15.80          9.29         -8.50   |  6.00       5.40      -4.33 YD:         20.40      169.71        64.17  | 192.00   118.20  -150.83 Score:    11.51        14.34         -2.58  | 13.22       9.28     -10.13   So it was actually a pretty decent week in the moral victory department for the Frogs.  While the performance against OU was judged the worst of the season, and the walloping that Purdue put on Ohio State really dropped the Frogs' comparative score against the Buckeyes a ton, the wins against SMU and Iowa State are looking solid at this point, and even the loss to Tech looks pretty decent with Tech's excellent play of late.  As of this moment, only the Texas and Oklahoma games look like total turds.   Believe it or not (I expect most will not), DUSHEE has the Frogs as favorites for 4 of the remaining 5 games: @Kansas +12 (67% chance Frogs win) Kansas St. +12.5 (72%) @West Virginia -7.5 (34%) @Baylor +0.5 (51%) Oklahoma St. +4 (56%)   As of now, the Frogs have played the 4th toughest schedule in FBS, according to DUSHEE.  Although, that will take a hit this week as the Frogs play ...   Frogs Next Opponent (Kansas) Playing Kansas is generally the salve that calms troubled football teams, but God knows that has rarely been the case for the Frogs.  After showing some signs early in the season that the Jayhawks might have improved a little this season (ignoring Nichols St., as DUSHEE does), Kansas has returned to form of late, and seems to be in turmoil after dumping Meachem.  Hopefully, the Frogs take care of business as they did last year.   As mentioned above, DUSHEE has the Frogs as 12-point favorites on the road. Opp:      @ CMU      Rut     @ Bay   |   OkSt     @ WVU     @ Ttech PD:          12.33     25.57    -25.40  |   -16.80       -4.25        -29.40 YD:          18.67   148.71  -154.00  | -194.40   -205.00     -207.00 Score:       9.12     24.19     -24.33  |   -20.54     -12.68        -29.54   So after looking like a reasonable football team against two other really bad teams (CMU and Rutgers), Kansas has returned to form in conference play, getting pounded by everybody by at least 3 TDs.   Top Performances of the Week 50.70 Clemson vs. NC-State (34 MOV, 174 YM) 46.46 Missouri vs. Memphis (32 MOV, 238 YM) 46.02 Purdue vs. Ohio St. (29 MOV, -7 YM)   Bottom Performances of the Week -50.46 Oregon St. vs. Cal (-42 MOV, -298 YM) -38.55 Bowling Green at Ohio (-35 MOV, -283 YM) -36.11 Minnesota at Nebraska (-25 MOV, -185 YM)   Conference Ratings SEC 12.62 B12 7.31 B10 7.01 ACC 3.85 P12 2.30 AAC -4.04 MWC -4.91 CUSA -7.60 MAC -7.89 SBC -9.95   Overall Rankings   Week 8     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson  36.58 314.39 39.49 1 0.66 2 Alabama  37.21 290.28 38.75 -1 -0.44 3 Michigan  26.00 254.44 29.55 0 0.81 4 Oklahoma  24.62 178.43 24.98 2 0.07 5 LSU  24.63 131.21 22.72 2 -0.78 6 Texas A&M  16.18 206.57 20.71 5 0.88 7 Georgia  21.43 115.93 19.85 3 -0.44 8 Ohio St.  18.19 157.38 19.68 -3 -6.82 9 Penn St.  22.64 87.45 19.30 -5 -8.44 10 Iowa  18.09 142.36 18.90 7 2.50 11 Appalachian State 19.41 117.35 18.57 -3 -4.64 12 Missouri  16.51 149.15 18.17 15 6.05 13 N.C. State  15.92 153.32 17.98 -4 -4.77 14 North Texas  16.73 135.10 17.64 2 1.11 15 Purdue  16.65 114.46 16.60 19 6.92 16 Wisconsin  15.02 129.11 16.21 2 -0.06 17 Miami (FL)  13.91 141.25 16.06 3 0.68 18 Washington  14.74 120.29 15.61 3 1.08 19 Army  16.36 83.93 14.94 -7 -2.77 20 Notre Dame  16.28 78.38 14.62 -1 -1.17 21 Utah  13.76 109.67 14.44 4 2.12 22 Texas Tech  14.00 105.65 14.41 1 1.43 23 Florida  15.51 76.82 14.03 -9 -2.87 24 Mississippi St.  13.34 103.37 13.86 -9 -2.78 25 Temple  12.57 102.30 13.29 -3 -0.17 26 Fresno St.  14.64 68.91 13.07 6 2.89 27 Kentucky  14.71 65.49 12.95 -14 -4.01 28 Washington St.  9.21 131.52 12.46 5 2.30 29 Iowa St.  10.92 93.52 11.77 0 0.12 30 UCF  12.71 43.55 10.57 1 0.04 31 Boise St.  9.39 87.61 10.47 9 2.03 32 West Virginia  12.52 43.16 10.42 -8 -1.90 33 UAB 8.69 81.99 9.73 15 4.76 34 Texas  9.71 63.99 9.55 -8 -2.75 35 South Carolina  8.95 69.01 9.28 6 1.29 36 Cincinnati  9.36 52.69 8.77 9 2.79 37 Michigan St.  9.00 44.23 8.13 -7 -3.10 38 Virginia  7.14 47.03 7.02 6 0.84 39 Utah St.  13.46 -41.28 6.99 -11 -4.70 40 Colorado  4.83 63.86 6.29 -3 -2.45 41 Auburn  6.70 37.48 6.27 10 1.55 42 Buffalo  5.66 46.50 6.01 8 1.23 43 TCU  3.94 68.94 5.94 -4 -2.65 44 Oregon  5.21 48.58 5.80 13 2.55 45 Oklahoma St.  6.44 29.24 5.70 1 -0.26 46 Maryland  5.70 36.17 5.54 -11 -4.04 47 Duke  9.69 -20.27 5.49 -9 -3.15 48 Mississippi  2.57 63.73 4.78 5 0.69 49 Syracuse  5.23 26.57 4.76 7 1.42 50 Stanford  9.00 -35.66 4.29 -1 -0.52 51 Boston Coll.  5.91 3.92 4.13 -8 -2.30 52 Houston  5.03 6.44 3.66 0 -0.43 53 Nebraska  -1.85 91.83 3.18 13 3.85 54 Arizona St.  4.20 5.30 3.05 -12 -3.61 55 East. Michigan  3.47 -7.49 1.95 16 3.79 56 Minnesota  1.61 17.43 1.91 -20 -7.64 57 Baylor  0.69 25.97 1.71 -2 -1.67 58 Georgia Tech  0.90 17.28 1.43 1 -0.81 59 BYU  2.20 -2.97 1.33 5 1.57 60 Vanderbilt  4.85 -40.07 1.31 3 1.18 61 USC  2.11 -8.27 1.01 -14 -4.17 62 UCLA  0.81 4.56 0.76 -1 -0.15 63 San Diego St.  1.94 -15.93 0.53 -9 -3.32 64 Indiana  -3.13 41.77 -0.08 12 2.96 65 Northwestern  -0.03 -3.64 -0.19 -5 -1.81 66 Louisiana Tech  0.36 -12.95 -0.39 -8 -3.52 67 Virginia Tech  1.38 -30.86 -0.56 0 0.81 68 East Carolina  -7.30 87.00 -0.69 9 2.41 69 W. Michigan  -4.08 38.94 -0.85 6 1.81 70 Tennessee  -1.56 -5.18 -1.29 0 0.53 71 Miami (OH)  -2.36 -9.41 -2.03 13 3.06 72 Arkansas St.  -4.15 13.67 -2.11 0 -0.24 73 Southern Miss  -7.48 58.57 -2.17 12 2.99 74 Kansas St.  0.52 -57.40 -2.41 -5 -0.75 75 Marshall  -0.77 -41.13 -2.49 3 0.73 76 Troy  -3.85 -13.53 -3.22 11 2.60 77 Pittsburgh  -1.68 -44.43 -3.25 -3 -0.95 78 Liberty -3.60 -20.37 -3.38 -5 -1.45 79 Air Force  -2.24 -40.41 -3.44 0 0.40 80 Ohio  -3.14 -35.34 -3.79 13 4.42 81 Northern Illinois  -2.62 -46.01 -3.96 8 2.70 82 Florida St.  -3.78 -29.94 -3.96 6 2.43 83 Memphis  -3.80 -34.23 -4.18 -18 -3.93 84 Florida Intl.  -2.64 -60.81 -4.68 8 2.65 85 Arkansas  -7.53 6.99 -4.69 1 1.12 86 Florida Atlantic  -7.05 -6.61 -5.02 -6 -0.50 87 LA Lafayette  -5.96 -23.14 -5.08 11 4.65 88 Wyoming  -5.63 -35.14 -5.44 12 5.65 89 Georgia Southern -0.45 -113.54 -5.75 2 1.24 90 Ball St.  -6.39 -34.65 -5.93 -9 -1.15 91 Arizona  -9.90 9.08 -6.17 -1 0.76 92 California  -9.48 -18.83 -7.22 15 5.42 93 Nevada  -7.86 -44.29 -7.37 10 4.50 94 South Florida  -7.66 -47.96 -7.41 -26 -5.81 95 Tulane  -7.00 -61.53 -7.62 -33 -7.88 96 Toledo  -4.71 -98.34 -7.86 -1 1.52 97 New Mexico  -7.07 -71.29 -8.14 -3 0.10 98 North Carolina  -13.96 20.06 -8.34 8 4.24 99 UNC-Charlotte -12.86 -0.77 -8.61 -3 0.79 100 Tulsa  -9.72 -47.95 -8.78 -17 -3.89 101 Kansas  -6.32 -98.84 -8.96 -19 -4.10 102 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.87 -95.11 -10.48 0 1.15 103 Colorado St.  -14.33 -20.53 -10.54 1 1.44 104 Navy  -10.00 -102.82 -11.60 4 2.10 105 Wake Forest  -11.40 -91.91 -12.01 -6 -1.49 106 Hawaii  -11.60 -99.05 -12.49 -5 -1.39 107 Cent. Michigan  -13.95 -74.36 -12.87 -10 -3.46 108 Coastal Carolina -13.66 -83.04 -13.10 1 1.19 109 SMU  -12.48 -109.22 -13.56 -4 -1.16 110 West. Kentucky  -15.39 -84.42 -14.31 1 0.97 111 Louisville  -13.93 -105.65 -14.36 1 1.73 112 Akron  -13.34 -142.16 -15.72 -2 -0.54 113 Old Dominion -16.53 -117.56 -16.67 4 3.10 114 Illinois  -13.28 -171.87 -17.11 1 0.87 115 UNLV  -15.29 -164.86 -18.11 1 0.47 116 Massachusetts -17.06 -157.26 -18.92 3 3.59 117 Georgia State -19.65 -133.58 -19.52 -4 -2.97 118 LA Monroe  -21.01 -124.09 -19.97 7 4.97 119 UTEP  -20.68 -145.07 -20.75 1 2.40 120 South Alabama -20.38 -167.69 -21.64 -2 -0.57 121 UT-San Antonio -20.07 -190.28 -22.52 1 0.97 122 Oregon St.  -25.50 -118.57 -22.69 -8 -5.81 123 Kent St.  -22.30 -177.94 -23.41 1 1.22 124 Rutgers  -22.78 -172.50 -23.47 -1 0.55 125 San Jose St.  -24.29 -172.59 -24.48 2 3.21 126 Rice  -25.90 -174.78 -25.66 0 1.83 127 Bowling Green  -28.38 -152.84 -26.26 -6 -2.84 128 Texas St. -25.68 -221.20 -27.74 0 1.49 129 New Mexico St.  -26.85 -208.74 -27.92 0 2.39 130 Connecticut  -26.78 -272.45 -30.94 0 3.58   Rankings By Conference AAC 25 Temple  12.57 102.30 13.29 30 UCF  12.71 43.55 10.57 36 Cincinnati  9.36 52.69 8.77 52 Houston  5.03 6.44 3.66 68 East Carolina  -7.30 87.00 -0.69 83 Memphis  -3.80 -34.23 -4.18 94 South Florida  -7.66 -47.96 -7.41 95 Tulane  -7.00 -61.53 -7.62 100 Tulsa  -9.72 -47.95 -8.78 104 Navy  -10.00 -102.82 -11.60 109 SMU  -12.48 -109.22 -13.56 130 Connecticut  -26.78 -272.45 -30.94   ACC 1 Clemson  36.58 314.39 39.49 13 N.C. State  15.92 153.32 17.98 17 Miami (FL)  13.91 141.25 16.06 38 Virginia  7.14 47.03 7.02 47 Duke  9.69 -20.27 5.49 49 Syracuse  5.23 26.57 4.76 51 Boston Coll.  5.91 3.92 4.13 58 Georgia Tech  0.90 17.28 1.43 67 Virginia Tech  1.38 -30.86 -0.56 77 Pittsburgh  -1.68 -44.43 -3.25 82 Florida St.  -3.78 -29.94 -3.96 98 North Carolina  -13.96 20.06 -8.34 105 Wake Forest  -11.40 -91.91 -12.01 111 Louisville  -13.93 -105.65 -14.36   B1G 3 Michigan  26.00 254.44 29.55 8 Ohio St.  18.19 157.38 19.68 9 Penn St.  22.64 87.45 19.30 10 Iowa  18.09 142.36 18.90 15 Purdue  16.65 114.46 16.60 16 Wisconsin  15.02 129.11 16.21 37 Michigan St.  9.00 44.23 8.13 46 Maryland  5.70 36.17 5.54 53 Nebraska  -1.85 91.83 3.18 56 Minnesota  1.61 17.43 1.91 64 Indiana  -3.13 41.77 -0.08 65 Northwestern  -0.03 -3.64 -0.19 114 Illinois  -13.28 -171.87 -17.11 124 Rutgers  -22.78 -172.50 -23.47   BXII-II 4 Oklahoma  24.62 178.43 24.98 22 Texas Tech  14.00 105.65 14.41 29 Iowa St.  10.92 93.52 11.77 32 West Virginia  12.52 43.16 10.42 34 Texas  9.71 63.99 9.55 43 TCU  3.94 68.94 5.94 45 Oklahoma St.  6.44 29.24 5.70 57 Baylor  0.69 25.97 1.71 74 Kansas St.  0.52 -57.40 -2.41 101 Kansas  -6.32 -98.84 -8.96   CUSA 14 North Texas  16.73 135.10 17.64 33 UAB 8.69 81.99 9.73 66 Louisiana Tech  0.36 -12.95 -0.39 73 Southern Miss  -7.48 58.57 -2.17 75 Marshall  -0.77 -41.13 -2.49 84 Florida Intl.  -2.64 -60.81 -4.68 86 Florida Atlantic  -7.05 -6.61 -5.02 99 UNC-Charlotte -12.86 -0.77 -8.61 102 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.87 -95.11 -10.48 110 West. Kentucky  -15.39 -84.42 -14.31 113 Old Dominion -16.53 -117.56 -16.67 119 UTEP  -20.68 -145.07 -20.75 121 UT-San Antonio -20.07 -190.28 -22.52 126 Rice  -25.90 -174.78 -25.66   Indies 19 Army  16.36 83.93 14.94 20 Notre Dame  16.28 78.38 14.62 59 BYU  2.20 -2.97 1.33 78 Liberty -3.60 -20.37 -3.38 116 Massachusetts -17.06 -157.26 -18.92 129 New Mexico St.  -26.85 -208.74 -27.92   MAC 42 Buffalo  5.66 46.50 6.01 55 East. Michigan  3.47 -7.49 1.95 69 W. Michigan  -4.08 38.94 -0.85 71 Miami (OH)  -2.36 -9.41 -2.03 80 Ohio  -3.14 -35.34 -3.79 81 Northern Illinois  -2.62 -46.01 -3.96 90 Ball St.  -6.39 -34.65 -5.93 96 Toledo  -4.71 -98.34 -7.86 107 Cent. Michigan  -13.95 -74.36 -12.87 112 Akron  -13.34 -142.16 -15.72 123 Kent St.  -22.30 -177.94 -23.41 127 Bowling Green  -28.38 -152.84 -26.26   MWC 26 Fresno St.  14.64 68.91 13.07 31 Boise St.  9.39 87.61 10.47 39 Utah St.  13.46 -41.28 6.99 63 San Diego St.  1.94 -15.93 0.53 79 Air Force  -2.24 -40.41 -3.44 88 Wyoming  -5.63 -35.14 -5.44 93 Nevada  -7.86 -44.29 -7.37 97 New Mexico  -7.07 -71.29 -8.14 103 Colorado St.  -14.33 -20.53 -10.54 106 Hawaii  -11.60 -99.05 -12.49 115 UNLV  -15.29 -164.86 -18.11 125 San Jose St.  -24.29 -172.59 -24.48   P12 18 Washington  14.74 120.29 15.61 21 Utah  13.76 109.67 14.44 28 Washington St.  9.21 131.52 12.46 40 Colorado  4.83 63.86 6.29 44 Oregon  5.21 48.58 5.80 50 Stanford  9.00 -35.66 4.29 54 Arizona St.  4.20 5.30 3.05 61 USC  2.11 -8.27 1.01 62 UCLA  0.81 4.56 0.76 91 Arizona  -9.90 9.08 -6.17 92 California  -9.48 -18.83 -7.22 122 Oregon St.  -25.50 -118.57 -22.69   SBC 11 Appalachian State 19.41 117.35 18.57 72 Arkansas St.  -4.15 13.67 -2.11 76 Troy  -3.85 -13.53 -3.22 87 LA Lafayette  -5.96 -23.14 -5.08 89 Georgia Southern -0.45 -113.54 -5.75 108 Coastal Carolina -13.66 -83.04 -13.10 117 Georgia State -19.65 -133.58 -19.52 118 LA Monroe  -21.01 -124.09 -19.97 120 South Alabama -20.38 -167.69 -21.64 128 Texas St. -25.68 -221.20 -27.74   SEC 2 Alabama  37.21 290.28 38.75 5 LSU  24.63 131.21 22.72 6 Texas A&M  16.18 206.57 20.71 7 Georgia  21.43 115.93 19.85 12 Missouri  16.51 149.15 18.17 23 Florida  15.51 76.82 14.03 24 Mississippi St.  13.34 103.37 13.86 27 Kentucky  14.71 65.49 12.95 35 South Carolina  8.95 69.01 9.28 41 Auburn  6.70 37.48 6.27 48 Mississippi  2.57 63.73 4.78 60 Vanderbilt  4.85 -40.07 1.31 70 Tennessee  -1.56 -5.18 -1.29 85 Arkansas  -7.53 6.99 -4.69  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 7 (2018)

Alabama retakes the top spot this week, but the Tide and Clemson have emerged as the clear top 2 with a bunch of B1G teams filling out the rest of the top 5.  Yes, two-loss Penn State is still in the top 5, but they did have the second biggest single score drop of the week (Georgia dropped slightly more), falling over 10 points; the way the numbers worked out, however, they just dropped one spot, getting leapt by Michigan.    Oklahoma did very well against the bye, jumping 2 spots and increasing their score by 2.5 points.  We'll discuss how that happened when we look at Oklahoma's numbers in the 'TCU's next opponent' section.    Frogs Week-by-Week The Frogs fell 5 spots to 39th, even though their score dropped less than a point.  They fell because a lot of teams just under them jumped with strong performances: Duke, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan St., and Iowa State all leapt the Frogs.   Opp:       @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex   |   ISU      Ttech PD:           11.25         17.67       -8.50   |  6.00      -0.50 YD:          -13.75        199.33     64.17   | 192.00   80.00 Score:       6.82          21.58       -2.51   |   13.44     3.60   Due to Iowa State's recent performance, our win against them, while visually ugly, is actually starting to look pretty good comparatively.  The Tech loss was rated as mediocre as you might imagine and by far our best performance is still that loss to Ohio State.    The Frogs are ranked 47th in the country in point differential, but 20th in yardage differential.  This disparity is largely explained by the turnover situation with which we are all too aware.  The Frogs have moved the ball on opponents like a top-20 team, but they sure haven't scored like one.   Two pieces of potential solace for Frog fans are 1) neglecting the Southern matchup which is ignored by DUSHEE, the Frogs have the 6th toughest schedule in the country right now, and 2) of the 6 remaining Big 12 games left on our schedule, 4 are against teams actually ranked lower than the Frogs.  So we have that going for us, which is nice.  Missouri has had the toughest schedule according to DUSHEE.   Frogs Next Opponent -- Oklahoma The Sooners have climbed to 6th in the rankings, despite the Texas loss.  Here are their numbers to date:   Opp:       FAU      UCLA     @ ISU   |   Army      Bay     N Tex PD:        50.00     21.60     14.40   |  24.80     37.00     5.50 YD:       379.00    33.00   133.20   |  80.20   242.00   94.50 Score:   51.96     16.02     16.15   |   20.48     36.56     8.31   So the Texas game was definitely a dud for the Sooners (and the 'N' stands for 'neutral site', not 'North', for clarification), but outside of that game (Texas seems to have gotten the worst shot out of several of their opponents this year), the Sooners have been pretty impressive this year.  The Army game, which everyone thought was a bad performance for the Sooners, was actually pretty good as the Cadets have far exceeded anybody's expectations and are ranked 12th in DUSHEE Original (and 20th even in DUSHEE Extra Crispy with the added emphasis on schedule strength).    As mentioned above, the Sooners fared well during the bye, improving 2.5 points despite sitting at home.  This was due to UCLA getting a blowout win over Cal, Iowa State whipping WVU, and Army blowing out SJfSU.  Baylor and Texas played each other so that was a wash for the Sooners.  The Sooners comparative performances against those 3 opponents all got big boosts this week.   Against common opponents, the Sooners were about 3 points better than the Frogs against Iowa State ... but if you account for the fact that Oklahoma played the Cyclones in Ames and the Frogs got them in Ft. Worth, the Sooners were about 11 points better than the Frogs against Iowa State on a neutral field.  The Sooners were about 11 points better than the Frogs against Texas, but again taking into account the fact that the Frogs played Texas in Austin and Oklahoma played them at a neutral site, the Sooners were about a touchdown better against the Horns.   All that said, the Frogs are heavy underdogs to the Sooners ... 12 points, even after giving the Frogs a 4.2 point home field advantage (the current calculated number for the season).  If this game were in Norman, the Frogs would be 3 TD dogs.  DUSHEE gives the Frogs about a 27% chance of winning.   Conference Rankings The Big XII-II still ranks second among the conferences, about a half point better (on average) than the B1G.   SEC 12.48 BXII-ii 8.56 B1G 7.97 ACC 3.89 P12 2.51 AAC -3.01 MWC -5.85 MAC -8.87 CUSA -8.98 SBC -10.73   Top Performances of the Week 48.72 -- Iowa St vs. WVU (16 MOV, 346 YM) 46.95 -- LSU vs. UGa (20 MOV, 153 YM) 43.98 -- Alabama vs. Mizzou (29 MOV, 352 YM)   Bottom Performances of the Week -56.00 -- New Mexico St. at Louisiana-Lafayette (-28 MOV, -353 YM) -43.52 -- Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana-Monroe (-25 MOV, -27 YM) -41.66 -- Western Kentucky at UNC-Charlotte (-26 MOV, -192 YM)   Overall Rankings   Week 7     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  37.23 292.39 39.19 1 1.02 2 Clemson  34.97 315.62 38.83 -1 -1.92 3 Michigan  25.69 236.27 28.74 3 2.58 4 Penn St.  30.65 148.43 27.73 -1 -10.17 5 Ohio St.  25.91 187.61 26.50 0 -4.01 6 Oklahoma  25.55 160.32 24.91 2 2.53 7 LSU  24.55 145.18 23.50 8 5.30 8 Appalachian State 23.96 147.25 23.21 -1 -2.91 9 N.C. State  21.28 174.28 22.75 0 0.85 10 Georgia  21.14 126.18 20.30 -6 -10.56 11 Texas A&M  14.72 203.75 19.83 3 0.92 12 Army  19.39 97.35 17.71 7 1.35 13 Kentucky  18.34 96.31 16.96 5 -0.13 14 Florida  18.62 91.31 16.90 8 1.28 15 Mississippi St.  16.93 108.96 16.64 9 3.24 16 North Texas  15.93 120.40 16.54 11 4.70 17 Iowa  15.74 120.15 16.40 0 -0.84 18 Wisconsin  14.83 129.85 16.27 -5 -3.64 19 Notre Dame  17.81 79.64 15.79 -8 -5.09 20 Miami (FL)  12.81 139.15 15.38 0 -0.77 21 Washington  13.93 106.53 14.53 11 4.23 22 Temple  12.68 101.93 13.46 1 -2.06 23 Texas Tech  11.80 103.88 12.97 -11 -7.03 24 West Virginia  14.25 57.43 12.32 -14 -9.44 25 Utah  13.61 65.94 12.31 14 5.05 26 Texas  12.14 85.58 12.30 2 0.98 27 Missouri  10.35 106.18 12.12 -11 -5.25 28 Utah St.  17.39 1.97 11.69 8 2.50 29 Iowa St.  10.85 89.90 11.65 15 6.03 30 Michigan St.  10.95 79.80 11.22 10 4.36 31 UCF  11.78 54.26 10.52 4 1.27 32 Fresno St.  11.12 56.18 10.18 5 1.49 33 Washington St.  6.18 122.83 10.16 -4 -0.67 34 Purdue  7.74 91.82 9.67 14 4.54 35 Maryland  9.30 68.64 9.57 -4 -0.88 36 Minnesota  10.16 56.49 9.55 7 3.22 37 Colorado  7.08 81.72 8.74 -7 -1.98 38 Duke  14.12 -15.76 8.64 4 2.21 39 TCU  5.18 104.35 8.59 -5 -0.67 40 Boise St.  5.81 92.83 8.44 -15 -4.01 41 South Carolina  7.60 59.55 7.99 -20 -7.99 42 Arizona St.  7.82 29.47 6.66 -4 -1.89 43 Boston Coll.  8.14 20.40 6.43 2 0.87 44 Virginia  5.13 56.08 6.17 -3 -0.52 45 Cincinnati  7.21 23.92 5.98 7 2.30 46 Oklahoma St.  6.43 34.03 5.96 -20 -6.09 47 USC  3.66 55.77 5.18 7 1.92 48 UAB 2.75 63.82 4.97 29 8.90 49 Stanford  9.26 -27.76 4.81 2 0.82 50 Buffalo  4.07 41.92 4.78 10 2.56 51 Auburn  4.98 28.40 4.71 -18 -5.49 52 Houston  5.46 9.17 4.09 -6 -1.34 53 Mississippi  1.48 62.99 4.08 -6 -1.10 54 San Diego St.  4.94 11.34 3.85 -5 -0.57 55 Baylor  2.52 34.52 3.38 0 0.40 56 Syracuse  4.40 8.41 3.35 2 0.76 57 Oregon  3.29 21.53 3.25 -4 -0.13 58 Louisiana Tech  2.79 25.83 3.13 13 4.68 59 Georgia Tech  1.68 22.90 2.24 -2 -0.38 60 Northwestern  2.09 4.40 1.61 -4 -1.01 61 UCLA  1.15 2.96 0.91 6 2.19 62 Tulane  1.42 -13.86 0.27 3 0.43 63 Vanderbilt  3.74 -48.10 0.13 -13 -4.05 64 BYU  0.51 -11.84 -0.24 11 2.91 65 Memphis  0.10 -6.48 -0.25 24 6.30 66 Nebraska  -6.71 77.27 -0.68 -7 -3.03 67 Virginia Tech  0.85 -39.40 -1.37 -6 -3.53 68 South Florida  -0.96 -19.56 -1.60 -6 -3.31 69 Kansas St.  1.33 -51.93 -1.67 12 2.92 70 Tennessee  -2.52 -2.79 -1.82 -7 -3.16 71 East. Michigan  -1.63 -15.18 -1.84 12 2.87 72 Arkansas St.  -4.68 25.58 -1.86 0 0.11 73 Liberty -1.70 -16.16 -1.93 9 2.74 74 Pittsburgh  -1.33 -28.83 -2.30 -4 -0.80 75 W. Michigan  -6.98 40.54 -2.66 -9 -1.96 76 Indiana  -5.38 11.25 -3.04 -12 -3.00 77 East Carolina  -8.86 57.18 -3.09 -1 0.18 78 Marshall  -3.03 -24.30 -3.22 14 3.54 79 Air Force  -1.05 -63.81 -3.84 1 0.70 80 Florida Atlantic  -5.75 -13.88 -4.52 -6 -1.70 81 Ball St.  -4.19 -40.35 -4.78 -12 -3.31 82 Kansas  -1.59 -77.26 -4.86 -14 -3.52 83 Tulsa  -4.57 -37.60 -4.90 1 0.19 84 Miami (OH)  -5.37 -30.56 -5.09 11 2.93 85 Southern Miss  -9.30 21.11 -5.16 12 3.63 86 Arkansas  -9.64 12.59 -5.81 2 0.55 87 Troy  -6.80 -26.10 -5.82 3 0.74 88 Florida St.  -6.50 -41.94 -6.40 -2 -0.21 89 Northern Illinois  -4.59 -73.08 -6.65 10 4.57 90 Arizona  -10.89 6.89 -6.92 -12 -2.90 91 Georgia Southern -1.83 -117.38 -6.99 -12 -2.55 92 Florida Intl.  -3.92 -95.99 -7.33 -7 -1.64 93 Ohio  -6.23 -82.53 -8.21 -2 -1.55 94 New Mexico  -5.99 -86.33 -8.23 -21 -6.03 95 Toledo  -6.37 -104.37 -9.38 7 2.43 96 UNC-Charlotte -11.75 -31.89 -9.40 18 9.93 97 Cent. Michigan  -9.26 -65.86 -9.41 8 4.21 98 LA Lafayette  -10.75 -52.13 -9.73 14 7.19 99 Wake Forest  -9.66 -83.12 -10.53 -1 -0.36 100 Wyoming  -10.83 -78.76 -11.09 -6 -3.51 101 Hawaii  -9.17 -101.35 -11.10 -8 -4.22 102 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.22 -84.37 -11.63 2 0.71 103 Nevada  -12.87 -66.96 -11.87 8 4.71 104 Colorado St.  -14.10 -52.52 -11.98 2 1.92 105 SMU  -11.53 -95.90 -12.40 -5 -1.00 106 North Carolina  -19.35 6.43 -12.58 2 2.80 107 California  -15.33 -49.27 -12.64 -20 -6.42 108 Navy  -11.59 -121.52 -13.70 2 2.00 109 Coastal Carolina -15.46 -80.97 -14.29 -6 -2.46 110 Akron  -11.85 -148.08 -15.18 5 4.24 111 West. Kentucky  -16.66 -84.95 -15.28 -15 -7.23 112 Louisville  -15.62 -115.52 -16.09 -5 -1.95 113 Georgia State -15.88 -121.29 -16.55 0 1.76 114 Oregon St.  -19.94 -73.01 -16.88 -5 -1.25 115 Illinois  -13.82 -178.36 -17.98 -14 -6.45 116 UNLV  -17.01 -147.26 -18.58 0 1.17 117 Old Dominion -18.45 -151.84 -19.76 1 1.62 118 South Alabama -19.89 -158.76 -21.07 1 1.57 119 Massachusetts -18.69 -204.50 -22.51 6 4.00 120 UTEP  -22.20 -169.93 -23.15 0 -0.13 121 Bowling Green  -26.38 -118.70 -23.42 6 5.03 122 UT-San Antonio -21.61 -184.59 -23.48 0 0.27 123 Rutgers  -23.27 -173.16 -24.02 -2 -0.64 124 Kent St.  -23.26 -185.63 -24.63 -7 -3.42 125 LA Monroe  -24.99 -168.45 -24.94 3 5.76 126 Rice  -28.60 -171.32 -27.49 -3 -3.35 127 San Jose St.  -27.03 -196.81 -27.69 -3 -2.13 128 Texas St. -27.69 -219.15 -29.24 2 11.88 129 New Mexico St.  -28.53 -229.87 -30.32 -3 -3.56 130 Connecticut  -30.97 -282.32 -34.52 -1 -1.56   Rankings by Conference AAC 22 Temple  12.68 101.93 13.46 31 UCF  11.78 54.26 10.52 45 Cincinnati  7.21 23.92 5.98 52 Houston  5.46 9.17 4.09 62 Tulane  1.42 -13.86 0.27 65 Memphis  0.10 -6.48 -0.25 68 South Florida  -0.96 -19.56 -1.60 77 East Carolina  -8.86 57.18 -3.09 83 Tulsa  -4.57 -37.60 -4.90 105 SMU  -11.53 -95.90 -12.40 108 Navy  -11.59 -121.52 -13.70 130 Connecticut  -30.97 -282.32 -34.52   ACC 2 Clemson  34.97 315.62 38.83 9 N.C. State  21.28 174.28 22.75 20 Miami (FL)  12.81 139.15 15.38 38 Duke  14.12 -15.76 8.64 43 Boston Coll.  8.14 20.40 6.43 44 Virginia  5.13 56.08 6.17 56 Syracuse  4.40 8.41 3.35 59 Georgia Tech  1.68 22.90 2.24 67 Virginia Tech  0.85 -39.40 -1.37 74 Pittsburgh  -1.33 -28.83 -2.30 88 Florida St.  -6.50 -41.94 -6.40 99 Wake Forest  -9.66 -83.12 -10.53 106 North Carolina  -19.35 6.43 -12.58 112 Louisville  -15.62 -115.52 -16.09   B1G 3 Michigan  25.69 236.27 28.74 4 Penn St.  30.65 148.43 27.73 5 Ohio St.  25.91 187.61 26.50 17 Iowa  15.74 120.15 16.40 18 Wisconsin  14.83 129.85 16.27 30 Michigan St.  10.95 79.80 11.22 34 Purdue  7.74 91.82 9.67 35 Maryland  9.30 68.64 9.57 36 Minnesota  10.16 56.49 9.55 60 Northwestern  2.09 4.40 1.61 66 Nebraska  -6.71 77.27 -0.68 76 Indiana  -5.38 11.25 -3.04 115 Illinois  -13.82 -178.36 -17.98 123 Rutgers  -23.27 -173.16 -24.02   BXII-II 6 Oklahoma  25.55 160.32 24.91 23 Texas Tech  11.80 103.88 12.97 24 West Virginia  14.25 57.43 12.32 26 Texas  12.14 85.58 12.30 29 Iowa St.  10.85 89.90 11.65 39 TCU  5.18 104.35 8.59 46 Oklahoma St.  6.43 34.03 5.96 55 Baylor  2.52 34.52 3.38 69 Kansas St.  1.33 -51.93 -1.67 82 Kansas  -1.59 -77.26 -4.86   CUSA 16 North Texas  15.93 120.40 16.54 48 UAB 2.75 63.82 4.97 58 Louisiana Tech  2.79 25.83 3.13 78 Marshall  -3.03 -24.30 -3.22 80 Florida Atlantic  -5.75 -13.88 -4.52 85 Southern Miss  -9.30 21.11 -5.16 92 Florida Intl.  -3.92 -95.99 -7.33 96 UNC-Charlotte -11.75 -31.89 -9.40 102 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.22 -84.37 -11.63 111 West. Kentucky  -16.66 -84.95 -15.28 117 Old Dominion -18.45 -151.84 -19.76 120 UTEP  -22.20 -169.93 -23.15 122 UT-San Antonio -21.61 -184.59 -23.48 126 Rice  -28.60 -171.32 -27.49   Indies 12 Army  19.39 97.35 17.71 19 Notre Dame  17.81 79.64 15.79 64 BYU  0.51 -11.84 -0.24 73 Liberty -1.70 -16.16 -1.93 119 Massachusetts -18.69 -204.50 -22.51 129 New Mexico St.  -28.53 -229.87 -30.32   MAC 50 Buffalo  4.07 41.92 4.78 71 East. Michigan  -1.63 -15.18 -1.84 75 W. Michigan  -6.98 40.54 -2.66 81 Ball St.  -4.19 -40.35 -4.78 84 Miami (OH)  -5.37 -30.56 -5.09 89 Northern Illinois  -4.59 -73.08 -6.65 93 Ohio  -6.23 -82.53 -8.21 95 Toledo  -6.37 -104.37 -9.38 97 Cent. Michigan  -9.26 -65.86 -9.41 110 Akron  -11.85 -148.08 -15.18 121 Bowling Green  -26.38 -118.70 -23.42 124 Kent St.  -23.26 -185.63 -24.63   MWC 28 Utah St.  17.39 1.97 11.69 32 Fresno St.  11.12 56.18 10.18 40 Boise St.  5.81 92.83 8.44 54 San Diego St.  4.94 11.34 3.85 79 Air Force  -1.05 -63.81 -3.84 94 New Mexico  -5.99 -86.33 -8.23 100 Wyoming  -10.83 -78.76 -11.09 101 Hawaii  -9.17 -101.35 -11.10 103 Nevada  -12.87 -66.96 -11.87 104 Colorado St.  -14.10 -52.52 -11.98 116 UNLV  -17.01 -147.26 -18.58 127 San Jose St.  -27.03 -196.81 -27.69   P12 21 Washington  13.93 106.53 14.53 25 Utah  13.61 65.94 12.31 33 Washington St.  6.18 122.83 10.16 37 Colorado  7.08 81.72 8.74 42 Arizona St.  7.82 29.47 6.66 47 USC  3.66 55.77 5.18 49 Stanford  9.26 -27.76 4.81 57 Oregon  3.29 21.53 3.25 61 UCLA  1.15 2.96 0.91 90 Arizona  -10.89 6.89 -6.92 107 California  -15.33 -49.27 -12.64 114 Oregon St.  -19.94 -73.01 -16.88   SBC 8 Appalachian State 23.96 147.25 23.21 72 Arkansas St.  -4.68 25.58 -1.86 87 Troy  -6.80 -26.10 -5.82 91 Georgia Southern -1.83 -117.38 -6.99 98 LA Lafayette  -10.75 -52.13 -9.73 109 Coastal Carolina -15.46 -80.97 -14.29 113 Georgia State -15.88 -121.29 -16.55 118 South Alabama -19.89 -158.76 -21.07 125 LA Monroe  -24.99 -168.45 -24.94 128 Texas St. -27.69 -219.15 -29.24   SEC 1 Alabama  37.23 292.39 39.19 7 LSU  24.55 145.18 23.50 10 Georgia  21.14 126.18 20.30 11 Texas A&M  14.72 203.75 19.83 13 Kentucky  18.34 96.31 16.96 14 Florida  18.62 91.31 16.90 15 Mississippi St.  16.93 108.96 16.64 27 Missouri  10.35 106.18 12.12 41 South Carolina  7.60 59.55 7.99 51 Auburn  4.98 28.40 4.71 53 Mississippi  1.48 62.99 4.08 63 Vanderbilt  3.74 -48.10 0.13 70 Tennessee  -2.52 -2.79 -1.82 86 Arkansas  -9.64 12.59 -5.81  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2018)

Since this is late getting out, I'll keep the commentary to a minimum.  However, I'll revisit the Tech-TCU matchup because it is an interesting case study as to how the numbers change even when teams do not play.  As a teaser, Tech comes out of the bye better than the Frogs do ...   We have a new #1 as Clemson goes past Alabama to claim the top spot.    Top 3 Performances - Week 6 63.47 - Clemson at Wake (+60 MOV, 449 YM) 53.42 - Temple vs. ECU (+43, +274) 40.19 - New Mexico at UNLV (+36, +336)   Bottom 3 Performances -62.03 - ULaMon at Ole Miss (-49, -399) -52.24 - UNLV vs. UNM (-36, -336) -48.83 - Texas St. vs. ULaLa (-15, -132)   Conference Rankings SEC 14.30 B12 9.94 B10 9.32 ACC 4.11 P12 2.60 AAC -3.30 MWC -5.19 MAC -10.42 CUSA -10.69 SBC -12.84   Frogs Week-to-Week (Now) Opp:    @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex  |   ISU PD:       11.25      20.40         -8.40    |  2.75 YD:       -13.75    223.00       63.80    | 123.25 Score:   6.82       24.68        -2.43     |   7.96   Frogs Week-to-Week (Last Week) Opp:  @ SMU   N OhSt     @ Tex   |     ISU PD:     14.33      22.75      -7.50      |    0.67 YD:      5.00       231.75    86.25     |  107.33 Score:  9.81      26.75       -0.69     |     5.81   Note that the Frogs did not fare particularly well against Bye this week.  As a general rule, scores do regress toward the mean as the season goes on (in other words, scores, particularly toward the extreme, tend to drift closer to zero as the season goes on).  Only their Iowa State score improved.  I'm a little surprised the Texas score fell, given the Horns big upset of Oklahoma, but DUSHEE didn't have the Sooners ranked as high as many others.   Tech, on the other hand, had their average score go up during the bye, even though three of their four individual game scores went down (including Oklahoma State by 9 points).  Tech fared well during the bye on the backs of Ole Miss's annihilation of Louisiana-Monroe which made Tech's loss to Ole Miss look comparatively better.  It still doesn't look like a good loss, but it went from 5 TDs worse than average to a little more than 2 TDs worse than average.   Tech Week-to-Week (Now) Opp:          N Miss       Hou          @OkSt   |      WVU PD:           -23.50          34.33        43.75    |    15.67 YD:           -25.50        139.00      375.25    |   179.00 Score:      -16.93         29.80        47.81     |    19.34   Tech Week-to-Week (Last Week) Opp:        N Miss        Hou           @OkSt  |       WVU PD:           -41.00        37.00           52.33  |      19.50 YD:         -146.33      147.50         438.67 |    170.00 Score:      -34.65        32.04          56.82   |    21.50   With these results, Tech's DUSHEE score improved a little more than a point overall and TCU's dropped a little more than a point.  Tech climbed 6 spots in the rankings to #12 (due mostly to teams above them like Wisconsin, LSU, Kentucky, S. Carolina, and Miami falling) while the Frogs fell a spot to #34. And the DUSHEE line on the game goes from Tech -5 to Tech -7.  You might remember that last week I said that Tech's DUSHEE score against Oklahoma State was the highest single game score for any team this season?  Now, it's not even the highest score for its week, having been surpassed by Clemson's win in Week 4 over Georgia Tech.   Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson  37.30 319.62 40.75 2 6.47 2 Alabama  37.92 259.39 38.17 -1 0.89 3 Penn St.  41.14 210.90 37.91 -1 2.74 4 Georgia  29.47 225.65 30.86 1 0.39 5 Ohio St.  29.51 218.01 30.51 -1 -2.19 6 Michigan  22.17 228.98 26.16 3 1.00 7 Appalachian State 26.07 175.94 26.12 0 -0.71 8 Oklahoma  22.75 145.29 22.39 4 -1.15 9 N.C. State  19.96 172.94 21.90 1 -2.38 10 West Virginia  20.23 166.60 21.77 6 1.21 11 Notre Dame  23.12 109.96 20.88 -5 -7.78 12 Texas Tech  17.56 166.94 20.00 6 1.08 13 Wisconsin  17.95 159.77 19.91 2 -2.40 14 Texas A&M  14.01 192.53 18.91 8 0.45 15 LSU  20.32 93.80 18.21 -1 -4.63 16 Missouri  12.31 184.38 17.37 4 -1.52 17 Iowa  17.56 111.34 17.24 11 3.04 18 Kentucky  18.80 91.65 17.09 -10 -8.48 19 Army  16.67 105.69 16.36 4 -2.05 20 Miami (FL)  15.23 120.57 16.15 -1 -2.76 21 South Carolina  14.18 131.38 15.98 -10 -7.64 22 Florida  18.98 59.55 15.61 5 0.46 23 Temple  15.32 106.82 15.52 11 5.23 24 Mississippi St.  15.07 67.63 13.41 11 3.62 25 Boise St.  10.82 105.27 12.44 -4 -6.12 26 Oklahoma St.  12.64 72.79 12.04 -13 -11.13 27 North Texas  10.38 98.96 11.83 -2 -4.94 28 Texas  11.46 73.96 11.31 3 0.28 29 Washington St.  6.95 124.75 10.83 -3 -4.47 30 Colorado  8.33 104.03 10.72 25 7.08 31 Maryland  10.24 72.97 10.45 -1 -2.27 32 Washington  10.49 66.37 10.29 -15 -8.86 33 Auburn  11.80 46.95 10.20 -9 -7.13 34 TCU  6.50 99.08 9.26 -1 -1.16 35 UCF  10.38 46.94 9.25 17 4.62 36 Utah St.  15.85 -27.56 9.19 20 5.76 37 Fresno St.  9.08 53.00 8.69 0 0.00 38 Arizona St.  9.99 38.01 8.55 1 0.89 39 Utah  9.69 16.21 7.26 8 1.23 40 Michigan St.  6.28 53.86 6.86 -11 -6.67 41 Virginia  3.73 84.83 6.70 -9 -3.92 42 Duke  10.31 -9.02 6.43 -1 -0.74 43 Minnesota  7.03 32.97 6.33 -7 -3.20 44 Iowa St.  7.24 15.99 5.62 7 0.60 45 Boston Coll.  9.02 -9.04 5.57 -1 -1.27 46 Houston  5.04 41.58 5.43 7 1.40 47 Mississippi  3.64 55.49 5.18 29 8.06 48 Purdue  2.63 68.00 5.13 -2 -1.37 49 San Diego St.  5.26 18.41 4.42 26 6.81 50 Vanderbilt  5.61 8.78 4.18 -2 -1.46 51 Stanford  8.47 -33.39 3.99 -13 -4.49 52 Cincinnati  4.62 12.10 3.68 13 3.80 53 Oregon  3.85 16.33 3.38 1 -0.57 54 USC  1.40 46.94 3.27 -14 -3.90 55 Baylor  1.83 35.31 2.98 -12 -3.91 56 Northwestern  3.81 1.79 2.63 2 1.02 57 Georgia Tech  2.63 17.47 2.62 24 8.26 58 Syracuse  3.35 7.20 2.59 -13 -4.16 59 Nebraska  -5.21 117.38 2.36 2 1.27 60 Buffalo  1.50 24.41 2.21 2 1.14 61 Virginia Tech  4.09 -11.51 2.16 -4 -1.23 62 South Florida  5.85 -44.07 1.71 -13 -3.50 63 Tennessee  -1.77 50.85 1.35 1 0.92 64 Indiana  -2.78 36.69 -0.03 2 0.46 65 Tulane  0.96 -16.24 -0.17 -2 -1.21 66 W. Michigan  -5.46 59.03 -0.71 2 -0.06 67 UCLA  -2.68 10.28 -1.27 6 0.49 68 Kansas  1.33 -44.70 -1.33 3 -0.24 69 Ball St.  -0.96 -16.69 -1.47 -10 -2.80 70 Pittsburgh  -0.65 -21.47 -1.50 23 8.09 71 Louisiana Tech  -3.91 21.38 -1.54 -21 -6.67 72 Arkansas St.  -4.12 15.58 -1.97 -3 -1.19 73 New Mexico  -0.51 -37.62 -2.21 35 16.29 74 Florida Atlantic  -4.11 -1.48 -2.81 21 7.36 75 BYU  -1.97 -36.92 -3.15 -1 -1.32 76 East Carolina  -7.90 40.02 -3.28 -34 -10.29 77 UAB -6.31 5.56 -3.93 19 6.73 78 Arizona  -8.80 37.03 -4.03 12 5.45 79 Georgia Southern 1.69 -112.10 -4.44 20 7.67 80 Air Force  -1.15 -75.88 -4.53 27 13.05 81 Kansas St.  -1.81 -68.15 -4.59 2 1.63 82 Liberty -5.04 -26.35 -4.67 -10 -3.29 83 East. Michigan  -4.99 -27.79 -4.71 2 2.04 84 Tulsa  -7.76 1.85 -5.08 2 2.97 85 Florida Intl.  -0.11 -113.05 -5.69 -7 -1.66 86 Florida St.  -6.69 -34.69 -6.18 2 2.16 87 California  -7.48 -24.81 -6.22 -10 -2.61 88 Arkansas  -11.15 21.68 -6.36 9 4.43 89 Memphis  -6.01 -51.19 -6.55 -10 -1.73 90 Troy  -7.60 -30.00 -6.56 -8 -0.89 91 Ohio  -5.71 -57.38 -6.66 -31 -7.84 92 Marshall  -8.05 -27.98 -6.76 -25 -6.21 93 Hawaii  -4.42 -79.15 -6.88 -6 1.39 94 Wyoming  -7.98 -45.48 -7.58 -3 1.91 95 Miami (OH)  -8.08 -52.82 -8.01 8 5.42 96 West. Kentucky  -9.67 -32.38 -8.05 -12 -1.62 97 Southern Miss  -13.67 6.42 -8.79 -17 -3.42 98 Wake Forest  -8.83 -86.12 -10.17 -28 -9.08 99 Northern Illinois  -8.39 -113.31 -11.22 11 7.71 100 SMU  -10.91 -83.12 -11.40 1 1.24 101 Illinois  -6.25 -148.02 -11.53 8 7.06 102 Toledo  -8.46 -124.10 -11.81 -13 -3.00 103 Coastal Carolina -11.44 -84.65 -11.83 9 7.16 104 Middle Tenn. St.  -13.90 -61.81 -12.34 9 7.10 105 Cent. Michigan  -12.96 -100.25 -13.62 -5 -1.02 106 Colorado St.  -15.04 -78.09 -13.90 -1 0.88 107 Louisville  -14.73 -87.09 -14.15 -9 -3.12 108 North Carolina  -21.37 -23.02 -15.39 -6 -2.68 109 Oregon St.  -19.12 -58.08 -15.63 7 5.62 110 Navy  -13.62 -133.26 -15.70 -16 -5.54 111 Nevada  -18.37 -87.20 -16.58 10 9.66 112 LA Lafayette  -14.78 -142.12 -16.92 7 7.58 113 Georgia State -17.95 -127.58 -18.31 -2 0.64 114 UNC-Charlotte -22.03 -93.31 -19.33 4 2.42 115 Akron  -14.80 -192.20 -19.42 -9 -2.89 116 UNLV  -18.85 -144.38 -19.74 -24 -10.20 117 Kent St.  -20.13 -156.68 -21.21 10 13.54 118 Old Dominion -19.29 -171.44 -21.38 -14 -6.86 119 South Alabama -21.61 -165.67 -22.64 -4 -1.71 120 UTEP  -22.39 -163.00 -23.02 8 13.31 121 Rutgers  -22.59 -167.46 -23.38 -7 -2.81 122 UT-San Antonio -20.32 -205.40 -23.75 1 4.26 123 Rice  -25.20 -147.66 -24.14 -6 -2.78 124 San Jose St.  -22.79 -208.83 -25.57 -2 1.01 125 Massachusetts -21.26 -248.32 -26.52 1 6.43 126 New Mexico St.  -26.08 -188.53 -26.76 3 13.39 127 Bowling Green  -30.64 -161.55 -28.45 -3 3.66 128 LA Monroe  -32.05 -187.80 -30.70 -8 -4.59 129 Connecticut  -29.18 -271.93 -32.97 -4 -0.70 130 Texas St. -39.15 -302.05 -41.11 0 0.88   Rankings By Conference AAC 23 Temple  15.32 106.82 15.52 35 UCF  10.38 46.94 9.25 46 Houston  5.04 41.58 5.43 52 Cincinnati  4.62 12.10 3.68 62 South Florida  5.85 -44.07 1.71 65 Tulane  0.96 -16.24 -0.17 76 East Carolina  -7.90 40.02 -3.28 84 Tulsa  -7.76 1.85 -5.08 89 Memphis  -6.01 -51.19 -6.55 100 SMU  -10.91 -83.12 -11.40 110 Navy  -13.62 -133.26 -15.70 129 Connecticut  -29.18 -271.93 -32.97   ACC 1 Clemson  37.30 319.62 40.75 9 N.C. State  19.96 172.94 21.90 20 Miami (FL)  15.23 120.57 16.15 41 Virginia  3.73 84.83 6.70 42 Duke  10.31 -9.02 6.43 45 Boston Coll.  9.02 -9.04 5.57 57 Georgia Tech  2.63 17.47 2.62 58 Syracuse  3.35 7.20 2.59 61 Virginia Tech  4.09 -11.51 2.16 70 Pittsburgh  -0.65 -21.47 -1.50 86 Florida St.  -6.69 -34.69 -6.18 98 Wake Forest  -8.83 -86.12 -10.17 107 Louisville  -14.73 -87.09 -14.15 108 North Carolina  -21.37 -23.02 -15.39   B1G 3 Penn St.  41.14 210.90 37.91 5 Ohio St.  29.51 218.01 30.51 6 Michigan  22.17 228.98 26.16 13 Wisconsin  17.95 159.77 19.91 17 Iowa  17.56 111.34 17.24 31 Maryland  10.24 72.97 10.45 40 Michigan St.  6.28 53.86 6.86 43 Minnesota  7.03 32.97 6.33 48 Purdue  2.63 68.00 5.13 56 Northwestern  3.81 1.79 2.63 59 Nebraska  -5.21 117.38 2.36 64 Indiana  -2.78 36.69 -0.03 101 Illinois  -6.25 -148.02 -11.53 121 Rutgers  -22.59 -167.46 -23.38   BXII-II 8 Oklahoma  22.75 145.29 22.39 10 West Virginia  20.23 166.60 21.77 12 Texas Tech  17.56 166.94 20.00 26 Oklahoma St.  12.64 72.79 12.04 28 Texas  11.46 73.96 11.31 34 TCU  6.50 99.08 9.26 44 Iowa St.  7.24 15.99 5.62 55 Baylor  1.83 35.31 2.98 68 Kansas  1.33 -44.70 -1.33 81 Kansas St.  -1.81 -68.15 -4.59   CUSA 27 North Texas  10.38 98.96 11.83 71 Louisiana Tech  -3.91 21.38 -1.54 74 Florida Atlantic  -4.11 -1.48 -2.81 77 UAB -6.31 5.56 -3.93 85 Florida Intl.  -0.11 -113.05 -5.69 92 Marshall  -8.05 -27.98 -6.76 96 West. Kentucky  -9.67 -32.38 -8.05 97 Southern Miss  -13.67 6.42 -8.79 104 Middle Tenn. St.  -13.90 -61.81 -12.34 114 UNC-Charlotte -22.03 -93.31 -19.33 118 Old Dominion -19.29 -171.44 -21.38 120 UTEP  -22.39 -163.00 -23.02 122 UT-San Antonio -20.32 -205.40 -23.75 123 Rice  -25.20 -147.66 -24.14   Indies 11 Notre Dame  23.12 109.96 20.88 19 Army  16.67 105.69 16.36 75 BYU  -1.97 -36.92 -3.15 82 Liberty -5.04 -26.35 -4.67 125 Massachusetts -21.26 -248.32 -26.52 126 New Mexico St.  -26.08 -188.53 -26.76   MAC 60 Buffalo  1.50 24.41 2.21 66 W. Michigan  -5.46 59.03 -0.71 69 Ball St.  -0.96 -16.69 -1.47 83 East. Michigan  -4.99 -27.79 -4.71 91 Ohio  -5.71 -57.38 -6.66 95 Miami (OH)  -8.08 -52.82 -8.01 99 Northern Illinois  -8.39 -113.31 -11.22 102 Toledo  -8.46 -124.10 -11.81 105 Cent. Michigan  -12.96 -100.25 -13.62 115 Akron  -14.80 -192.20 -19.42 117 Kent St.  -20.13 -156.68 -21.21 127 Bowling Green  -30.64 -161.55 -28.45   MWC 25 Boise St.  10.82 105.27 12.44 36 Utah St.  15.85 -27.56 9.19 37 Fresno St.  9.08 53.00 8.69 49 San Diego St.  5.26 18.41 4.42 73 New Mexico  -0.51 -37.62 -2.21 80 Air Force  -1.15 -75.88 -4.53 93 Hawaii  -4.42 -79.15 -6.88 94 Wyoming  -7.98 -45.48 -7.58 106 Colorado St.  -15.04 -78.09 -13.90 111 Nevada  -18.37 -87.20 -16.58 116 UNLV  -18.85 -144.38 -19.74 124 San Jose St.  -22.79 -208.83 -25.57   P12 29 Washington St.  6.95 124.75 10.83 30 Colorado  8.33 104.03 10.72 32 Washington  10.49 66.37 10.29 38 Arizona St.  9.99 38.01 8.55 39 Utah  9.69 16.21 7.26 51 Stanford  8.47 -33.39 3.99 53 Oregon  3.85 16.33 3.38 54 USC  1.40 46.94 3.27 67 UCLA  -2.68 10.28 -1.27 78 Arizona  -8.80 37.03 -4.03 87 California  -7.48 -24.81 -6.22 109 Oregon St.  -19.12 -58.08 -15.63   SBC 7 Appalachian State 26.07 175.94 26.12 72 Arkansas St.  -4.12 15.58 -1.97 79 Georgia Southern 1.69 -112.10 -4.44 90 Troy  -7.60 -30.00 -6.56 103 Coastal Carolina -11.44 -84.65 -11.83 112 LA Lafayette  -14.78 -142.12 -16.92 113 Georgia State -17.95 -127.58 -18.31 119 South Alabama -21.61 -165.67 -22.64 128 LA Monroe  -32.05 -187.80 -30.70 130 Texas St. -39.15 -302.05 -41.11   SEC 2 Alabama  37.92 259.39 38.17 4 Georgia  29.47 225.65 30.86 14 Texas A&M  14.01 192.53 18.91 15 LSU  20.32 93.80 18.21 16 Missouri  12.31 184.38 17.37 18 Kentucky  18.80 91.65 17.09 21 South Carolina  14.18 131.38 15.98 22 Florida  18.98 59.55 15.61 24 Mississippi St.  15.07 67.63 13.41 33 Auburn  11.80 46.95 10.20 47 Mississippi  3.64 55.49 5.18 50 Vanderbilt  5.61 8.78 4.18 63 Tennessee  -1.77 50.85 1.35 88 Arkansas  -11.15 21.68 -6.36  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 5 DUSHEE (2018)

This week, DUSHEE has pretty much the same top 6 that everybody else has, although perhaps not in the same order ... Bama, Penn St., Clempson, Ohio St., UGa, and Noater.  After that, DUSHEE is still a little crazy with App. St. (they did fall 4 spots) and Kentucky next in line.  Our Frogs fell 5 spots to #33.   Top and Bottom Performances of the Week   Now that we are 5 weeks in, we can go back and see what the top and bottom DUSHEE-rated performances of each week were.  Keep in mind that these ratings vary with each new week ... what is the top-rated game from Week 1 now may not be considered the top-rated game from Week 1 by season's end.  A few comments: The parenthetical numbers after the matchup are the MOV and YM, respectively. Yes, I recognize that Penn State getting a better score than Ohio State when Ohio State won doesn't make a lot of sense, but that is the way the numbers worked out.  Ohio State beat its other opponents by an average of 37.5 points and out-gaining by 276 yards.  Penn State's numbers against its opponents were 36 points and 175 yards.  Since the teams were almost dead even in MOV going in and the MOV for the game was almost dead even, it was the yardage margin that carried the day for Penn State here.  DUSHEE is arguing that Ohio State got a bit lucky to win given the yardage margin. You'd think that Penn State barely getting by App St. in Week 1 would be hurting them, but since App, St. has continued to destroy everybody else they play, the comparative analysis is still greatly overweighing this game.  While I think the evidence that App. St. is actually a top-25 level team is mounting, I would still expect the significance DUSHEE is placing in this game to diminish as App. St. inevitably plays some closer games against their Sun Belt brethren. Right now, Technological's Week 4 whipping of Okie Light is the highest rated DUSHEE game of the year.  We will talk more about Tech in the TCU's Next Opponent section, since next week's DUSHEE will come out late next week (the monkey who does the data entry is running in the Chicago Marathon on Sunday)   Week 5 Top 3 43.29 - Penn St vs. Ohio St (-1, 103) 42.14 - Tulane vs. Memphis (16, 219) 41.68 - Oklahoma vs. Baylor (33, 154) Bottom 3 -65.01 - ULaMon at Georgia St. (-32, -226) -48.23 - Bowling Green at Georgia Tech (-46, -139) -42.72 - Memphis at Tulane (-16, -219)   Week 4 Top 3 56.82 - Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. (24, 235) 48.76 - Maryland vs. Minnesota (29, 168) 47.83 - Michigan vs. Nebraska (46, 350) Bottom 3 -48.80 - Kent St. at Mississippi (-21, -261) -43.23 - Oregon St. vs. Arizona (-21, -356) -38.91 - UNC-Charlotte at UMass (-18, 33)   Week 3 Top 3 54.82 - Clemson vs. Georgia So. (31, 455) 54.40 - Oklahoma St. vs. Boise St. (23, 10) 54.08 - Alabama at Mississippi (55, 269) Bottom 3 -60.28 - UTEP at Tennessee (-24, -378) -54.02 - San Jose St. at Oregon St. (-13, -147) -49.05 - Rutgers at Kansas (-41, -270)   Week 2 Top 3 51.67 - Michigan vs. W. Michigan (46, 243) 49.46 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St (50, 208) 42.31 - Ohio St. vs. Rutgers (49, 445) Bottom 3 -57.53 - UConn at Boise St. (-55, -629) -44.37 - S. Alabama at Oklahoma St. (-42, -403) -43.67 - UMass at Georgia So. (-21, -165)   Week 1 Top 3 47.55 - Oklahoma vs. FAU  (49, 326) 41.99 - Penn St. vs. App. St. (7, -17) 39.60 - S. Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina (34, 318) Bottom 3 -65.10 - Texas St. at Rutgers (-28, -247) -59.45 - Old Dominion at Liberty (-24, -290) -58.03 - New Mexico St. vs. Wyoming (-22, -315)   Conference Rankings SEC 15.13 B12 11.22 B10 9.63 ACC 4.56 P12 2.94 AAC -2.99 MWC -8.56 CUSA -11.20 MAC -11.75 SBC -14.32   The Big XII-II is still second but fell a little further away from the SEC and closer to the B1G.   TCU DUSHEE wasn't terribly impressed with the Frog's gutty (euphemism for ugly) win against Iowa State, primarily because it hasn't been all that impressed with Iowa State so far this year.  The Cyclones are ranked a very mediocre #51 in this week's DUSHEE.   TCU's week-by-week numbers Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex  ISU PD: 14.33 22.75 -7.50 0.67 YD: 5.00 231.75 86.25 107.33 Score: 9.81 26.75 -0.69 5.81   Frog's Next Opponent: Texas Tech As I mentioned above, the next DUSHEE rankings will be coming out late and probably without much analysis so I'll go ahead and tease Tech's numbers now.  Right now the Matadors are ranked #18 based on the following week-by-week numbers:   Opp: N Miss   Hou     @OkSt  |  WVU PD:    -41.00    37.00    52.33  |  19.50 YD:   -146.33  147.50  438.67 | 170.00 Score: -34.65  32.04   56.82   |    21.50   Tech laid a pretty massive turd in week 1 against what is now obviously a pretty mediocre Ole Miss team.  Since then, they've been pretty impressive, even in a close loss at home to WVU.  And as mentioned above, their curb-stomping of Okie St has been the highest rated DUSHEE game of the season so far.  Based on DUSHEE score, and giving the Frogs 3.5 points as the home team, Tech is about a 5-point favorite, but given Tech's wide variability (there is damn near a 100-point difference between their best score and worst score) there is a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty in the outcome of this one.  If the Tech team that played Ole Miss shows up, the Frogs win easily.  However, if the Tech team of the next three weeks appears at AGCS ... it will get ugly in the direction not favorable to the Frogs.  TCU has about a 45% chance of winning according to the numbers.   DUSHEE Rankings Alabama is still your #1, but DUSHEE was not terribly impressed by their performance against ULaLa, dropping their average DUSHEE score by almost 10 points.  Perhaps even more detrimental to Bama's score was the precipitous drop of Texas A&M, who had the 2nd largest drop in DUSHEE score (-13.27, almost 2 TDs) after barely beating a terrible Arkansas team.  NC State was a big climber this week, rising 28 spots in the ranking up to #10 overall.  Oklahoma also vaulted 11 spots to take over the highest ranking in the Big XII-II (#12).  Notre Dame jumped 8 spots to #6 and Auburn jumped 19 spots to #24 due to the fact that all of their previous opponents won impressively.  The biggest climber this week both in terms of rank and score was the mighty Tulane Green Wave whose surprising dismantling of what had appeared to be a decent Memphis team lifted Tulane 48 spots and almost 21 points to #63.     Week 5     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  39.20 222.97 37.28 0 -9.56 2 Penn St.  38.63 188.18 35.16 0 -0.55 3 Clemson  29.67 290.04 34.28 2 0.14 4 Ohio St.  32.95 214.53 32.69 4 0.27 5 Georgia  28.13 234.38 30.47 -1 -3.87 6 Notre Dame  30.47 166.88 28.65 8 3.92 7 Appalachian State 27.50 169.97 26.83 -4 -8.54 8 Kentucky  25.33 173.58 25.57 -2 -7.23 9 Michigan  20.15 234.42 25.15 2 -3.14 10 N.C. State  24.44 159.67 24.28 28 12.00 11 South Carolina  20.08 204.83 23.63 -4 -8.90 12 Oklahoma  24.27 147.12 23.53 11 4.68 13 Oklahoma St.  23.60 148.81 23.18 0 -1.78 14 LSU  25.71 113.92 22.83 2 0.42 15 Wisconsin  21.00 166.21 22.31 -3 -5.41 16 West Virginia  19.67 148.89 20.55 -6 -9.93 17 Washington  19.83 118.60 19.15 9 1.71 18 Texas Tech  16.96 152.46 18.93 0 -2.32 19 Miami (FL)  19.46 118.79 18.91 1 -1.90 20 Missouri  15.50 171.17 18.89 -3 -2.90 21 Boise St.  16.75 147.92 18.56 1 -0.36 22 Texas A&M  13.40 190.58 18.46 -13 -13.27 23 Army  19.07 114.12 18.42 8 2.92 24 Auburn  19.46 87.08 17.33 19 8.01 25 North Texas  14.50 142.13 16.77 -10 -5.68 26 Washington St.  8.35 194.71 15.30 3 -0.66 27 Florida  17.83 65.42 15.16 7 1.00 28 Iowa  13.39 105.44 14.20 8 0.44 29 Michigan St.  13.52 90.46 13.54 1 -2.43 30 Maryland  11.63 99.54 12.73 2 -1.99 31 Texas  9.72 91.17 11.04 4 -2.91 32 Virginia  8.06 104.94 10.62 29 8.86 33 TCU  7.56 107.58 10.42 -5 -5.92 34 Temple  10.58 64.63 10.29 -7 -6.97 35 Mississippi St.  11.17 46.92 9.79 -16 -11.25 36 Minnesota  10.06 56.35 9.53 6 -0.47 37 Fresno St.  9.00 53.72 8.69 9 1.68 38 Stanford  15.35 -35.21 8.48 -13 -9.26 39 Arizona St.  8.60 38.60 7.66 10 2.30 40 USC  5.13 74.92 7.17 -1 -4.16 41 Duke  11.60 -11.44 7.16 -20 -13.04 42 East Carolina  0.69 131.00 7.01 -9 -7.50 43 Baylor  5.23 68.00 6.89 -19 -11.62 44 Boston Coll.  9.17 14.44 6.83 19 6.07 45 Syracuse  7.17 39.42 6.75 13 4.41 46 Purdue  3.30 86.17 6.51 -9 -5.80 47 Utah  3.81 69.86 6.03 31 11.83 48 Vanderbilt  5.19 43.58 5.64 18 5.50 49 South Florida  8.11 -4.00 5.21 16 4.68 50 Louisiana Tech  3.94 49.86 5.12 31 12.20 51 Iowa St.  8.19 -8.63 5.03 -6 -2.99 52 UCF  6.22 9.67 4.63 31 12.62 53 Houston  4.44 21.33 4.03 -9 -4.17 54 Oregon  5.00 12.33 3.95 17 6.05 55 Colorado  1.22 56.56 3.64 13 3.94 56 Utah St.  10.61 -72.72 3.44 0 1.00 57 Virginia Tech  8.53 -46.03 3.38 28 11.76 58 Northwestern  2.15 3.54 1.61 9 1.57 59 Ball St.  2.15 -1.90 1.34 -7 -1.91 60 Ohio  1.58 2.47 1.18 9 2.12 61 Nebraska  -6.33 106.21 1.09 1 -0.47 62 Buffalo  1.10 6.67 1.07 -21 -9.74 63 Tulane  1.17 5.33 1.04 48 20.91 64 Tennessee  -1.88 33.58 0.43 -14 -3.86 65 Cincinnati  1.75 -25.65 -0.12 17 7.24 66 Indiana  -3.62 38.33 -0.49 -6 -2.50 67 Marshall  0.28 -14.75 -0.55 -16 -4.71 68 W. Michigan  -6.98 80.17 -0.65 6 3.84 69 Arkansas St.  -3.56 31.81 -0.78 -10 -2.81 70 Wake Forest  0.65 -30.33 -1.09 23 10.70 71 Kansas  1.10 -36.71 -1.10 -24 -7.21 72 Liberty -0.38 -22.56 -1.38 -15 -3.77 73 UCLA  -2.48 -2.13 -1.76 16 7.63 74 BYU  -0.54 -29.25 -1.82 -34 -12.70 75 San Diego St.  0.83 -58.92 -2.39 -11 -2.93 76 Mississippi  -3.25 -14.21 -2.88 -28 -8.29 77 California  -6.67 16.78 -3.61 -23 -6.58 78 Florida Intl.  2.21 -110.06 -4.03 2 2.58 79 Memphis  -4.67 -34.33 -4.83 -26 -7.97 80 Southern Miss  -10.00 25.89 -5.37 -10 -3.29 81 Georgia Tech  -8.04 -5.54 -5.64 3 2.72 82 Troy  -7.33 -15.67 -5.67 13 6.90 83 Kansas St.  -2.38 -92.69 -6.22 -11 -2.58 84 West. Kentucky  -7.33 -30.96 -6.44 3 2.22 85 East. Michigan  -5.60 -60.35 -6.75 -30 -9.68 86 Tulsa  -11.94 -1.86 -8.06 0 0.42 87 Hawaii  -4.50 -105.40 -8.27 -12 -3.41 88 Florida St.  -8.42 -54.65 -8.34 -9 -2.06 89 Toledo  -5.50 -102.83 -8.81 12 5.40 90 Arizona  -12.54 -22.23 -9.47 -14 -4.42 91 Wyoming  -11.60 -35.10 -9.49 6 3.11 92 UNLV  -11.06 -43.42 -9.54 8 4.22 93 Pittsburgh  -9.92 -59.67 -9.59 -1 2.16 94 Navy  -8.86 -85.03 -10.16 -21 -5.74 95 Florida Atlantic  -12.75 -33.38 -10.17 -18 -4.65 96 UAB -13.89 -28.11 -10.66 20 14.28 97 Arkansas  -17.08 12.08 -10.78 -7 -0.39 98 Louisville  -9.85 -89.17 -11.03 -4 0.90 99 Georgia Southern -7.00 -148.86 -12.11 0 1.14 100 Cent. Michigan  -12.25 -88.69 -12.60 -4 -0.02 101 SMU  -12.46 -86.65 -12.64 -10 -1.77 102 North Carolina  -22.25 42.50 -12.71 -14 -3.82 103 Miami (OH)  -14.13 -80.23 -13.43 4 5.18 104 Old Dominion -10.57 -149.57 -14.52 9 6.65 105 Colorado St.  -16.46 -76.33 -14.79 4 4.71 106 Akron  -10.00 -197.33 -16.53 -3 -1.11 107 Air Force  -12.78 -181.44 -17.59 1 1.48 108 New Mexico  -15.28 -166.31 -18.50 7 4.22 109 Illinois  -12.33 -207.28 -18.58 -3 -0.14 110 Northern Illinois  -17.30 -147.93 -18.93 7 8.44 111 Georgia State -19.21 -122.83 -18.95 10 11.64 112 Coastal Carolina -18.92 -127.71 -19.00 -7 -2.96 113 Middle Tenn. St.  -22.56 -88.00 -19.44 -1 1.01 114 Rutgers  -19.30 -154.02 -20.57 -12 -5.86 115 South Alabama -19.00 -165.30 -20.93 -5 -1.16 116 Oregon St.  -22.67 -122.92 -21.26 -2 1.27 117 Rice  -21.10 -145.77 -21.36 -13 -5.51 118 UNC-Charlotte -24.56 -107.44 -21.75 2 8.50 119 LA Lafayette  -20.92 -210.97 -24.49 0 4.63 120 LA Monroe  -27.88 -150.63 -26.11 -22 -13.37 121 Nevada  -27.04 -164.25 -26.24 4 10.77 122 San Jose St.  -22.50 -231.53 -26.57 6 17.62 123 UT-San Antonio -25.42 -221.40 -28.01 0 4.49 124 Bowling Green  -35.33 -171.23 -32.12 -6 -4.52 125 Connecticut  -26.88 -287.13 -32.27 -3 -0.65 126 Massachusetts -27.47 -292.77 -32.95 1 6.46 127 Kent St.  -32.17 -266.21 -34.75 -3 1.06 128 UTEP  -36.31 -242.56 -36.33 -2 2.89 129 New Mexico St.  -38.50 -289.70 -40.15 0 5.54 130 Texas St. -39.75 -309.92 -41.99 0 3.89   Rankings by Conference AAC 34 Temple  10.58 64.63 10.29 42 East Carolina  0.69 131.00 7.01 49 South Florida  8.11 -4.00 5.21 52 UCF  6.22 9.67 4.63 53 Houston  4.44 21.33 4.03 63 Tulane  1.17 5.33 1.04 65 Cincinnati  1.75 -25.65 -0.12 79 Memphis  -4.67 -34.33 -4.83 86 Tulsa  -11.94 -1.86 -8.06 94 Navy  -8.86 -85.03 -10.16 101 SMU  -12.46 -86.65 -12.64 125 Connecticut  -26.88 -287.13 -32.27   ACC 3 Clemson  29.67 290.04 34.28 10 N.C. State  24.44 159.67 24.28 19 Miami (FL)  19.46 118.79 18.91 32 Virginia  8.06 104.94 10.62 41 Duke  11.60 -11.44 7.16 44 Boston Coll.  9.17 14.44 6.83 45 Syracuse  7.17 39.42 6.75 57 Virginia Tech  8.53 -46.03 3.38 70 Wake Forest  0.65 -30.33 -1.09 81 Georgia Tech  -8.04 -5.54 -5.64 88 Florida St.  -8.42 -54.65 -8.34 93 Pittsburgh  -9.92 -59.67 -9.59 98 Louisville  -9.85 -89.17 -11.03 102 North Carolina  -22.25 42.50 -12.71   B1G 2 Penn St.  38.63 188.18 35.16 4 Ohio St.  32.95 214.53 32.69 9 Michigan  20.15 234.42 25.15 15 Wisconsin  21.00 166.21 22.31 28 Iowa  13.39 105.44 14.20 29 Michigan St.  13.52 90.46 13.54 30 Maryland  11.63 99.54 12.73 36 Minnesota  10.06 56.35 9.53 46 Purdue  3.30 86.17 6.51 58 Northwestern  2.15 3.54 1.61 61 Nebraska  -6.33 106.21 1.09 66 Indiana  -3.62 38.33 -0.49 109 Illinois  -12.33 -207.28 -18.58 114 Rutgers  -19.30 -154.02 -20.57   Big XII-II 12 Oklahoma  24.27 147.12 23.53 13 Oklahoma St.  23.60 148.81 23.18 16 West Virginia  19.67 148.89 20.55 18 Texas Tech  16.96 152.46 18.93 31 Texas  9.72 91.17 11.04 33 TCU  7.56 107.58 10.42 43 Baylor  5.23 68.00 6.89 51 Iowa St.  8.19 -8.63 5.03 71 Kansas  1.10 -36.71 -1.10 83 Kansas St.  -2.38 -92.69 -6.22   CUSA 25 North Texas  14.50 142.13 16.77 50 Louisiana Tech  3.94 49.86 5.12 67 Marshall  0.28 -14.75 -0.55 78 Florida Intl.  2.21 -110.06 -4.03 80 Southern Miss  -10.00 25.89 -5.37 84 West. Kentucky  -7.33 -30.96 -6.44 95 Florida Atlantic  -12.75 -33.38 -10.17 96 UAB -13.89 -28.11 -10.66 104 Old Dominion -10.57 -149.57 -14.52 113 Middle Tenn. St.  -22.56 -88.00 -19.44 117 Rice  -21.10 -145.77 -21.36 118 UNC-Charlotte -24.56 -107.44 -21.75 123 UT-San Antonio -25.42 -221.40 -28.01 128 UTEP  -36.31 -242.56 -36.33   Indies 6 Notre Dame  30.47 166.88 28.65 23 Army  19.07 114.12 18.42 72 Liberty -0.38 -22.56 -1.38 74 BYU  -0.54 -29.25 -1.82 126 Massachusetts -27.47 -292.77 -32.95 129 New Mexico St.  -38.50 -289.70 -40.15   MAC 59 Ball St.  2.15 -1.90 1.34 60 Ohio  1.58 2.47 1.18 62 Buffalo  1.10 6.67 1.07 68 W. Michigan  -6.98 80.17 -0.65 85 East. Michigan  -5.60 -60.35 -6.75 89 Toledo  -5.50 -102.83 -8.81 100 Cent. Michigan  -12.25 -88.69 -12.60 103 Miami (OH)  -14.13 -80.23 -13.43 106 Akron  -10.00 -197.33 -16.53 110 Northern Illinois  -17.30 -147.93 -18.93 124 Bowling Green  -35.33 -171.23 -32.12 127 Kent St.  -32.17 -266.21 -34.75   MWC 21 Boise St.  16.75 147.92 18.56 37 Fresno St.  9.00 53.72 8.69 56 Utah St.  10.61 -72.72 3.44 75 San Diego St.  0.83 -58.92 -2.39 87 Hawaii  -4.50 -105.40 -8.27 91 Wyoming  -11.60 -35.10 -9.49 92 UNLV  -11.06 -43.42 -9.54 105 Colorado St.  -16.46 -76.33 -14.79 107 Air Force  -12.78 -181.44 -17.59 108 New Mexico  -15.28 -166.31 -18.50 121 Nevada  -27.04 -164.25 -26.24 122 San Jose St.  -22.50 -231.53 -26.57   PAC12 17 Washington  19.83 118.60 19.15 26 Washington St.  8.35 194.71 15.30 38 Stanford  15.35 -35.21 8.48 39 Arizona St.  8.60 38.60 7.66 40 USC  5.13 74.92 7.17 47 Utah  3.81 69.86 6.03 54 Oregon  5.00 12.33 3.95 55 Colorado  1.22 56.56 3.64 73 UCLA  -2.48 -2.13 -1.76 77 California  -6.67 16.78 -3.61 90 Arizona  -12.54 -22.23 -9.47 116 Oregon St.  -22.67 -122.92 -21.26   SBC 7 Appalachian State 27.50 169.97 26.83 69 Arkansas St.  -3.56 31.81 -0.78 82 Troy  -7.33 -15.67 -5.67 99 Georgia Southern -7.00 -148.86 -12.11 111 Georgia State -19.21 -122.83 -18.95 112 Coastal Carolina -18.92 -127.71 -19.00 115 South Alabama -19.00 -165.30 -20.93 119 LA Lafayette  -20.92 -210.97 -24.49 120 LA Monroe  -27.88 -150.63 -26.11 130 Texas St. -39.75 -309.92 -41.99   SEC 1 Alabama  39.20 222.97 37.28 5 Georgia  28.13 234.38 30.47 8 Kentucky  25.33 173.58 25.57 11 South Carolina  20.08 204.83 23.63 14 LSU  25.71 113.92 22.83 20 Missouri  15.50 171.17 18.89 22 Texas A&M  13.40 190.58 18.46 24 Auburn  19.46 87.08 17.33 27 Florida  17.83 65.42 15.16 35 Mississippi St.  11.17 46.92 9.79 48 Vanderbilt  5.19 43.58 5.64 64 Tennessee  -1.88 33.58 0.43 76 Mississippi  -3.25 -14.21 -2.88 97 Arkansas  -17.08 12.08 -10.78

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Inaugural 2018 DUSHEE (Week 4)

So the critical threshold has been crossed ... every FBS team has played at least two other FBS teams, which allows DUSHEE to calculate a score for each team without dividing by zeros or linearly extrapolating single points and other mathematical impossibilities that it doesn't like to do.  To no one's surprise, Alabama is #1 by a mile.  But this year's inaugural poll comes with the same caveat that every inaugural DUSHEE poll comes with ... just because there is enough data to calculate scores doesn't mean there is enough data to calculate valid scores.  And there is some craziness in this initial ranking that may exceed the craziness seen in any other initial DUSHEE ranking.  Baylor, who always seems to be an early season DUSHEE favorite before falling precipitously later in the season, is a top 25 team.  North Texas comes in ranked #15.  Kentucky is your 6th best team in the country.  And if the season ended today, App State is replaying Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoff.   But before we get to that, let's go through some of the changes that have occurred between this season and last in college football.  Idaho has left us as an FBS school, but has been replaced by the Fightin' Jerry Falwells, aka the Liberty Flames, as an FBS independent.  New Mexico State, like Idaho, has been dropped by the Sun Belt, but remains in FBS as an independent, swelling their ranks to 6.   So let's take a look at a few of our initial WTF teams and see why they're where they are.   Initial WTF Teams   App State App State is ranked 3rd on the basis of two games, their 45-38 loss to Penn State in week 1 and a 45-9 whipping of UNC-Charlotte in week 2.  Their week 3 tilt with Southern Miss was cancelled/postponed due to Florence and last week they destroyed FCS Gardner-Webb, which doesn't factor into DUSHEE.  As we've discussed in the past, DUSHEE does reward moral victories, and at this point at least, that loss to Penn State looks like a BIG moral victory.  App State's MOV (-7) and Yardage Margin (+17) against Penn State is currently being compared to Pitt's numbers against Penn State in Week 2 (-45 MOV and -90 YM), Kent State's in Week 3 (-53 MOV and -446 YM), and Illinois in Week 4 (-39 MOV and -180 YM).  So if you crunch the numbers, App State did 38.7 points better than Penn State's average opponent and 238.7 yards better.   And this elucidates the problem with too little data.  As of this point, Penn State's average opponent is nowhere near an average FBS team; in fact Penn State's strength of schedule is 103rd out of 130 schools if you include 3rd ranked Appalachian State.  If you don't include them, App State's performance is being compared against the 92nd (Pitt), 124th (Kent St.), and 106th (Illinois) ranked teams.  Compared to those teams, App State looks like a world beater.   Penn State's SOS starts to even up a bit when they face Ohio State this week.  App State will drop as Penn State plays (presumably) tighter games against stiffer competition and App State plays closer games against their mediocre conference slate.  That said, if App State waltzes through the Sun Belt, and there is little indication they won't, look for that close game against Penn State to keep the (other) Mountaineers in the top 25.   North Texas North Texas comes in #15 on the basis of a +23 MOV, +273 YM performance against SMU, a +27 MOV, +40 YM performance against Arkansas, and a +40 MOV, +179 YM performance against Liberty.  Not exactly a murderer's row of opponents, but UNT looks comparatively good next to TCU's performance against SMU (+30 MOV, +151 YM) and Auburn's performance against Arkansas (+31 MOV, -65 YM).  But the game that really inflates UNT's DUSHEE score is Liberty's week 1 mauling of Old Dominion (+42 MOV, +290 YM), which after Old Dominion's week 4 upset of Virginia Tech (+14 MOV, +32 YM), gives North Texas a huge boost in DUSHEE.   Baylor Baylor beat a bad UTSA pretty soundly (+17 MOV, +239 YM), lost to a decent (ranked 21) Duke team (-13 MOV, -3 YM), and beat what DUSHEE does not consider an awful (ranked 47th, at this point, noting that DUSHEE is ignoring their loss to Nichols St.) Kansas team (+19 MOV, +176 YM).  I don't expect either Baylor or Kansas to stay this high once both start playing the meat of their Big XII-II schedule.   Conference Rankings   Right now, with most of the non-conference tilts decided and heading into conference play, the ACC and Pac-12 look incredibly mediocre, much closer to the American (slogan: No, there's a Power SIX!  Really!  It says so on our first down markers!) than they do the SEC, Big XII-II, and B1G.  Speaking of which, if there is any consolation to what has been a bad two weeks for Frog fans, DUSHEE thinks the Big XII-II is the second strongest conference, on average.   SEC 19.03 B12 15.48 B10 11.52 P12 2.14 ACC 1.78 AAC -3.91 MAC -11.67 MWC -12.07 CUSA -13.41 SBC -14.26   TCU   The Frogs enter the rankings at #28, which seems about right, even if there are teams above and below them that are clearly misplaced at this point.  Here are the Frogs DUSHEE numbers at this point, once again acknowledging that the week 1 game against Southern is ignored.  PD is "point differential" which is MOV compared to the opponent's opponents average MOV; YD is "yardage differential," performing the same comparison for offensive total yardage; "score" is the DUSHEE score which adjusts the PD based on YD with a methodology described elsewhere in this blog.   Opp: @ SMU N OhSt @ Tex PD: 14.33 34.00 -6.67 YD: 5.00 348.33 73.00 Score: 9.80 40.03 -0.81   DUSHEE is currently greatly rewarding the Frogs for their moral victory over the Buckeyes.  Too bad we couldn't have made it an actual victory.  Would have made that turd against Texas a little easier to swallow.   Frogs Next Opponent: Iowa State   DUSHEE currently has Iowa State ranked #45 with a DUSHEE score of 8.02.  With TCU's DUSHEE score at 16.34 and giving the Frogs a home field advantage boost of 3.5 points (based on previous years' numbers; there have not been enough games played to establish a number for this season), DUSHEE has the Frogs as a 12-point favorite against the Cyclones with a ~70% chance of winning.    But if the teams that showed up last week play each other, DUSHEE likes Iowa State to win by a TD or so.   Opp: @ Iowa  OU  Akr PD: -2.50 18.00 18.00 YD: -18.00 62.67 -10.00 Score: -2.56 15.12 11.50   Rankings   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  50.25 267.50 46.84 2 Penn St.  41.88 156.38 35.71 3 Appalachian State 33.58 260.33 35.37 4 Georgia  31.83 263.17 34.34 5 Clemson  27.33 319.33 34.14 6 Kentucky  32.17 227.67 32.79 7 South Carolina  30.50 244.56 32.52 8 Ohio St.  31.38 230.75 32.42 9 Texas A&M  29.22 245.72 31.73 10 West Virginia  27.75 240.50 30.49 11 Michigan  26.17 217.63 28.29 12 Wisconsin  27.13 193.38 27.72 13 Oklahoma St.  26.50 146.28 24.96 14 Notre Dame  27.38 130.00 24.73 15 North Texas  20.67 174.06 22.45 16 LSU  25.50 108.50 22.41 17 Missouri  17.67 200.78 21.79 18 Texas Tech  18.83 174.33 21.25 19 Mississippi St.  18.17 179.17 21.04 20 Miami (FL)  21.11 135.22 20.82 21 Duke  24.17 82.11 20.20 22 Boise St.  16.33 161.17 18.92 23 Oklahoma  18.92 125.25 18.85 24 Baylor  17.28 140.17 18.51 25 Stanford  23.72 38.50 17.73 26 Washington  18.22 106.17 17.44 27 Temple  19.89 80.28 17.26 28 TCU  13.89 142.11 16.34 29 Washington St.  9.83 188.78 15.97 30 Michigan St.  17.06 92.11 15.96 31 Army  15.29 106.42 15.50 32 Maryland  15.17 92.46 14.72 33 East Carolina  10.75 147.25 14.51 34 Florida  19.56 22.50 14.16 35 Texas  13.54 98.71 13.95 36 Iowa  13.06 101.33 13.76 37 Purdue  5.50 173.25 12.30 38 N.C. State  15.00 45.75 12.28 39 USC  11.17 77.96 11.33 40 BYU  11.11 69.56 10.87 41 Buffalo  12.94 43.67 10.81 42 Minnesota  10.10 65.48 10.00 43 Auburn  15.00 -13.67 9.32 44 Houston  8.67 48.67 8.20 45 Iowa St.  11.17 11.56 8.02 46 Fresno St.  4.58 79.33 7.01 47 Kansas  6.61 34.22 6.11 48 Mississippi  3.89 56.56 5.41 49 Arizona St.  6.17 25.17 5.37 50 Tennessee  1.33 68.17 4.29 51 Marshall  7.17 -12.50 4.15 52 Ball St.  2.89 26.56 3.25 53 Memphis  1.56 42.17 3.14 54 California  2.25 29.50 2.97 55 East. Michigan  1.78 34.94 2.93 56 Utah St.  9.50 -78.17 2.44 57 Liberty -0.89 59.83 2.39 58 Syracuse  1.33 29.00 2.33 59 Arkansas St.  -1.06 54.83 2.03 60 Indiana  -1.00 53.58 2.00 61 Virginia  0.61 27.17 1.76 62 Nebraska  -5.56 105.56 1.56 63 Boston Coll.  -1.06 29.33 0.76 64 San Diego St.  3.06 -30.00 0.54 65 South Florida  4.50 -49.67 0.52 66 Vanderbilt  0.04 2.13 0.13 67 Northwestern  -2.39 32.72 0.04 68 Colorado  -0.92 6.33 -0.30 69 Ohio  3.50 -65.75 -0.94 70 Southern Miss  -11.25 108.75 -2.08 71 Oregon  1.17 -57.67 -2.10 72 Kansas St.  -1.94 -47.00 -3.64 73 Navy  -3.89 -36.61 -4.42 74 W. Michigan  -9.22 33.44 -4.48 75 Hawaii  -1.63 -75.79 -4.86 76 Arizona  -10.83 43.50 -5.05 77 Florida Atlantic  -6.33 -26.00 -5.52 78 Utah  -7.00 -22.83 -5.80 79 Florida St.  -9.39 -0.39 -6.28 80 Florida Intl.  -2.04 -105.21 -6.61 81 Louisiana Tech  -9.92 -9.33 -7.08 82 Cincinnati  -3.67 -98.61 -7.36 83 UCF  -2.50 -126.75 -7.99 84 Georgia Tech  -15.00 33.00 -8.35 85 Virginia Tech  -6.58 -79.92 -8.37 86 Tulsa  -11.17 -20.78 -8.48 87 West. Kentucky  -11.33 -22.06 -8.66 88 North Carolina  -16.67 44.50 -8.89 89 UCLA  -11.17 -38.94 -9.39 90 Arkansas  -19.28 49.22 -10.40 91 SMU  -9.29 -93.75 -10.87 92 Pittsburgh  -14.67 -39.67 -11.76 93 Wake Forest  -13.11 -61.17 -11.79 94 Louisville  -7.72 -135.94 -11.93 95 Troy  -17.00 -24.83 -12.57 96 Cent. Michigan  -12.78 -81.50 -12.58 97 Wyoming  -15.25 -48.75 -12.60 98 LA Monroe  -18.17 -12.67 -12.74 99 Georgia Southern -6.83 -174.42 -13.25 100 UNLV  -13.78 -91.72 -13.76 101 Toledo  -10.75 -141.25 -14.21 102 Rutgers  -13.71 -111.75 -14.71 103 Akron  -11.50 -155.50 -15.42 104 Rice  -12.94 -144.83 -15.85 105 Coastal Carolina -16.17 -105.50 -16.04 106 Illinois  -10.33 -231.83 -18.45 107 Miami (OH)  -18.42 -127.17 -18.62 108 Air Force  -15.25 -178.50 -19.07 109 Colorado St.  -20.04 -123.21 -19.50 110 South Alabama -17.38 -164.25 -19.77 111 Tulane  -20.44 -125.11 -19.87 112 Middle Tenn. St.  -25.00 -75.92 -20.45 113 Old Dominion -18.00 -183.92 -21.17 114 Oregon St.  -25.11 -116.00 -22.52 115 New Mexico  -14.75 -258.46 -22.72 116 UAB -28.25 -122.50 -24.94 117 Northern Illinois  -25.75 -204.75 -27.37 118 Bowling Green  -29.89 -153.89 -27.60 119 LA Lafayette  -26.75 -226.50 -29.12 120 UNC-Charlotte -33.89 -153.44 -30.24 121 Georgia State -31.50 -192.33 -30.59 122 Connecticut  -26.50 -279.83 -31.62 123 UT-San Antonio -30.92 -238.63 -32.51 124 Kent St.  -30.22 -314.22 -35.81 125 Nevada  -35.50 -267.61 -37.01 126 UTEP  -38.83 -267.42 -39.22 127 Massachusetts -33.71 -339.71 -39.41 128 San Jose St.  -37.75 -381.75 -44.20 129 New Mexico St.  -42.13 -353.07 -45.69 130 Texas St. -43.56 -338.00 -45.89   Rankings by Conference   AAC 27     Temple  19.89 80.28 17.26 33     East Carolina  10.75 147.25 14.51 44     Houston  8.67 48.67 8.20 53     Memphis  1.56 42.17 3.14 65     South Florida  4.50 -49.67 0.52 73     Navy  -3.89 -36.61 -4.42 82    Cincinnati  -3.67 -98.61 -7.36 83    UCF  -2.50 -126.75 -7.99 86    Tulsa  -11.17 -20.78 -8.48 91    SMU  -9.29 -93.75 -10.87 111   Tulane  -20.44 -125.11 -19.87 122   Connecticut  -26.50 -279.83 -31.62   ACC 5 Clemson  27.33 319.33 34.14 20 Miami (FL)  21.11 135.22 20.82 21 Duke  24.17 82.11 20.20 38 N.C. State  15.00 45.75 12.28 58 Syracuse  1.33 29.00 2.33 61 Virginia  0.61 27.17 1.76 63 Boston Coll.  -1.06 29.33 0.76 79 Florida St.  -9.39 -0.39 -6.28 84 Georgia Tech  -15.00 33.00 -8.35 85 Virginia Tech  -6.58 -79.92 -8.37 88 North Carolina  -16.67 44.50 -8.89 92 Pittsburgh  -14.67 -39.67 -11.76 93 Wake Forest  -13.11 -61.17 -11.79 94 Louisville  -7.72 -135.94 -11.93   B1G 2 Penn St.  41.88 156.38 35.71 8 Ohio St.  31.38 230.75 32.42 11 Michigan  26.17 217.63 28.29 12 Wisconsin  27.13 193.38 27.72 30 Michigan St.  17.06 92.11 15.96 32 Maryland  15.17 92.46 14.72 36 Iowa  13.06 101.33 13.76 37 Purdue  5.50 173.25 12.30 42 Minnesota  10.10 65.48 10.00 60 Indiana  -1.00 53.58 2.00 62 Nebraska  -5.56 105.56 1.56 67 Northwestern  -2.39 32.72 0.04 102 Rutgers  -13.71 -111.75 -14.71 106 Illinois  -10.33 -231.83 -18.45   XII-II 10 West Virginia  27.75 240.50 30.49 13 Oklahoma St.  26.50 146.28 24.96 18 Texas Tech  18.83 174.33 21.25 23 Oklahoma  18.92 125.25 18.85 24 Baylor  17.28 140.17 18.51 28 TCU  13.89 142.11 16.34 35 Texas  13.54 98.71 13.95 45 Iowa St.  11.17 11.56 8.02 47 Kansas  6.61 34.22 6.11 72 Kansas St.  -1.94 -47.00 -3.64   CUSA 15 North Texas  20.67 174.06 22.45 51 Marshall  7.17 -12.50 4.15 70 Southern Miss  -11.25 108.75 -2.08 77 Florida Atlantic  -6.33 -26.00 -5.52 80 Florida Intl.  -2.04 -105.21 -6.61 81 Louisiana Tech  -9.92 -9.33 -7.08 87 West. Kentucky  -11.33 -22.06 -8.66 104 Rice  -12.94 -144.83 -15.85 112 Middle Tenn. St.  -25.00 -75.92 -20.45 113 Old Dominion -18.00 -183.92 -21.17 116 UAB -28.25 -122.50 -24.94 120 UNC-Charlotte -33.89 -153.44 -30.24 123 UT-San Antonio -30.92 -238.63 -32.51 126 UTEP  -38.83 -267.42 -39.22   Indies 14 Notre Dame  27.38 130.00 24.73 31 Army  15.29 106.42 15.50 40 BYU  11.11 69.56 10.87 57 Liberty -0.89 59.83 2.39 127 Massachusetts -33.71 -339.71 -39.41 129 New Mexico St.  -42.13 -353.07 -45.69   MAC 41 Buffalo  12.94 43.67 10.81 52 Ball St.  2.89 26.56 3.25 55 East. Michigan  1.78 34.94 2.93 69 Ohio  3.50 -65.75 -0.94 74 W. Michigan  -9.22 33.44 -4.48 96 Cent. Michigan  -12.78 -81.50 -12.58 101 Toledo  -10.75 -141.25 -14.21 103 Akron  -11.50 -155.50 -15.42 107 Miami (OH)  -18.42 -127.17 -18.62 117 Northern Illinois  -25.75 -204.75 -27.37 118 Bowling Green  -29.89 -153.89 -27.60 124 Kent St.  -30.22 -314.22 -35.81   MWC 22 Boise St.  16.33 161.17 18.92 46 Fresno St.  4.58 79.33 7.01 56 Utah St.  9.50 -78.17 2.44 64 San Diego St.  3.06 -30.00 0.54 75 Hawaii  -1.63 -75.79 -4.86 97 Wyoming  -15.25 -48.75 -12.60 100 UNLV  -13.78 -91.72 -13.76 108 Air Force  -15.25 -178.50 -19.07 109 Colorado St.  -20.04 -123.21 -19.50 115 New Mexico  -14.75 -258.46 -22.72 125 Nevada  -35.50 -267.61 -37.01 128 San Jose St.  -37.75 -381.75 -44.20   PAC12 25 Stanford  23.72 38.50 17.73 26 Washington  18.22 106.17 17.44 29 Washington St.  9.83 188.78 15.97 39 USC  11.17 77.96 11.33 49 Arizona St.  6.17 25.17 5.37 54 California  2.25 29.50 2.97 68 Colorado  -0.92 6.33 -0.30 71 Oregon  1.17 -57.67 -2.10 76 Arizona  -10.83 43.50 -5.05 78 Utah  -7.00 -22.83 -5.80 89 UCLA  -11.17 -38.94 -9.39 114 Oregon St.  -25.11 -116.00 -22.52   SBC 3 Appalachian State 33.58 260.33 35.37 59 Arkansas St.  -1.06 54.83 2.03 95 Troy  -17.00 -24.83 -12.57 98 LA Monroe  -18.17 -12.67 -12.74 99 Georgia Southern -6.83 -174.42 -13.25 105 Coastal Carolina -16.17 -105.50 -16.04 110 South Alabama -17.38 -164.25 -19.77 119 LA Lafayette  -26.75 -226.50 -29.12 121 Georgia State -31.50 -192.33 -30.59 130 Texas St. -43.56 -338.00 -45.89   SEC 1 Alabama  50.25 267.50 46.84 4 Georgia  31.83 263.17 34.34 6 Kentucky  32.17 227.67 32.79 7 South Carolina  30.50 244.56 32.52 9 Texas A&M  29.22 245.72 31.73 16 LSU  25.50 108.50 22.41 17 Missouri  17.67 200.78 21.79 19 Mississippi St.  18.17 179.17 21.04 34 Florida  19.56 22.50 14.16 43 Auburn  15.00 -13.67 9.32 48 Mississippi  3.89 56.56 5.41 50 Tennessee  1.33 68.17 4.29 66 Vanderbilt  0.04 2.13 0.13 90 Arkansas  -19.28 49.22 -10.40  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview 2017-2018

As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.   In the tables below, DO is DUSHEE Original, DR is DUSHEE Revised (or Extra Crispy), DA is the average of the two DUSHEE rankings, Sag is Sagarin, and SRS is the College Football Reference "Simple Rating System".  I pulled the Sagarin and SRS numbers before the Army-Navy game, so the numbers may not be an exact match for those checking my work.   TCU   Alamo   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Stanford  9-4 10.20 12.30 85.53 12.50 4.08 TCU  10-3 14.00 17.73 87.18 14.59 4.52   Here we are again, back in ol' Saint Tony, to face off against a Pac-12 runner up.  That last game wasn't very exciting, but this one will be if the computers and Vegas are right.   TCU is a unanimous, if small, favorite across the computational models and Vegas.  DUSHEE likes the Frogs a little more than Vegas, Sagarin a little less and the SRS pretty well nails the point spread:   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU  3.80 TCU  5.43 TCU  4.61 TCU  2 TCU  1.65 TCU  2.1   New Years Six   Orange Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Wisconsin  12-1 24.45 28.65 93.09 22.65 2.73 Miami (FL)  10-2 9.04 12.25 83.72 15.97 5.62   Wisconsin is a unanimous favorite here as well, with all the computer models liking the Badgers more than Vegas.  DUSHEE likes Wiscy a LOT more than Vegas.  Vegas could be giving the Canes a home field advantage here.   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Wisconsin  15.40 Wisconsin  16.40 Wisconsin  15.90 Wisconsin  6.5 Wisconsin  9.37 Wisconsin  6.7   Peach The Peach Bowl is the first of several games pairing teams with a disparate strength-of-schedule.  As one would expect, the DUSHEE Revised punishes the lower SoS much more than the Original.  Auburn had the 2nd most difficult schedule in college football this year (Maryland's ranked the toughest) while UCF's schedule ranked 85th.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Auburn  10-3 26.81 34.81 92.18 18.42 9.09 UCF  12-0 20.63 20.54 83.72 16.78 -1.61   Auburn is a unanimous favorite, but Vegas likes the Tigers/WarEagles more than any of the computer models other than DUSHEE Revised.  DUSHEE Average is right at the point spread.   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Auburn  6.18 Auburn  14.28 Auburn  10.23 Auburn  10 Auburn  8.46 Auburn  1.6   Fiesta The Fiesta predictions follow the same pattern as the Orange, with all models liking the Nittany Lions more than Vegas.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Penn St.  10-2 25.00 27.67 96.58 21.57 1.85 Washington  10-2 17.99 19.55 92.24 17.56 -0.29   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Penn St.  7.01 Penn St.  8.12 Penn St.  7.57 Penn St.  3 Penn St.  4.34 Penn St.  4.0   Cotton Again, all the computer models like Ohio State more than Vegas.  DUSHEE and Sagarin like the Buckeyes A LOT more.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Ohio St.  11-2 30.94 39.28 96.34 21.24 4.30 USC  11-2 11.97 15.10 83.98 14.19 2.91   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St.  18.96 Ohio St.  24.18 Ohio St.  21.57 Ohio St.  7 Ohio St.  12.36 Ohio St.  7.1   Rose The models and Vegas are NOT unanimous for the two Semi-Final games.  For the Rose Bowl, the computers all like Georgia but Vegas (at least at the time I pulled the number) liked the Sooners.  None have the spread higher that 4-points.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Oklahoma  12-1 25.90 30.27 92.84 19.21 2.69 Georgia  12-1 27.31 33.93 95.34 22.70 5.72   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia  1.41 Georgia  3.66 Georgia  2.54 Oklahoma  1 Georgia  2.50 Georgia  3.5   Sugar The SRS likes Clemson, everybody else has the Tide as a small favorite.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Clemson  12-1 24.96 31.80 96.18 22.34 5.68 Alabama  11-1 29.27 32.25 98.90 18.95 2.79   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama  4.31 Alabama  0.45 Alabama  2.38 Alabama  2 Alabama  2.72 Clemson  3.4   Games of That Already Happened So I wasn't thinking and assumed I had another week before games started.  So here, I'll put the games that happened this weekend.  DUSHEE went against Vegas and most of the computer models and took Marshall, Boise, and Georgia State.  DUSHEE, along with everybody else, missed on the Middle Tennessee-Arkansas State matchup.  DUSHEE really liked Arkansas State, so while DUSHEE nailed a bunch of upsets, it also lost out on a high confidence pick in the Pick'em contest.   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Winner Margin Marshall  3.35 Marshall  3.95 Marshall  3.65 Colorado St.  5.5 Colorado St.  2.32 Colorado St.  1.3 Marshall  3 Boise St.  3.50 Boise St.  1.86 Boise St.  2.68 Oregon  5 Oregon  3.38 Boise St.  2.4 Boise St.  10 Arkansas St.  10.30 Arkansas St.  10.62 Arkansas St.  10.46 Arkansas St.  3.5 Arkansas St.  6.59 Arkansas St.  5.3 Middle Tenn. St.  5 Georgia State 0.50 Georgia State 2.73 Georgia State 1.61 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  4.34 West. Kentucky  2.0 Georgia State 10 Troy  8.38 Troy  5.98 Troy  7.18 Troy  6 Troy  7.22 Troy  4.7 Troy  20   Other Games of Texas or Big XII-II Interest   Frisco The Ponies are unanimous favorites and the all the computer models other than DUSHEE Original like the Ponies more than Vegas.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Louisiana Tech  6-6 -2.36 -6.06 60.75 -4.52 -5.09 SMU  7-5 1.73 1.45 68.57 3.46 1.41   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS SMU  4.08 SMU  7.51 SMU  5.79 SMU  5 SMU  7.82 SMU  8.0   Armed Forces DUSHEE and Vegas are in close agreement, with the Aztecs about a touchdown favorite over Army.  Sagarin and SRS also like San Diego State, but not to cover.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Army  8-4 1.46 -0.27 68.78 2.26 -2.49 San Diego St.  10-2 8.97 7.03 74.05 6.49 -4.59   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS San Diego St.  7.51 San Diego St.  7.30 San Diego St.  7.40 San Diego St.  7 San Diego St.  5.27 San Diego St.  4.2   Hawaii DUSHEE and SRS like the Bulldogs, Vegas and Sagarin like the Cougars.  Everybody likes Fresno against the spread.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Houston  7-4 1.59 0.19 72.31 3.63 -2.91 Fresno St.  9-4 5.15 4.18 71.85 4.22 -1.47   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Fresno St.  3.56 Fresno St.  3.99 Fresno St.  3.78 Houston  1.5 Houston  0.46 Fresno St.  0.6   Heart of Dallas SRS likes the Mountaineers; everybody else likes the Utes.  Everybody likes WVU against the spread.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS West Virginia  7-5 3.86 6.49 75.71 6.11 3.63 Utah  6-6 6.17 7.80 77.70 5.13 1.55   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah  2.31 Utah  1.30 Utah  1.80 Utah  4.5 Utah  1.99 West Virginia  1.0   Cactus DUSHEE has been down on the Fightin' Snyders all year long compared to everybody else.  DUSHEE likes the Bruins, everyone else likes the Wildcats.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Kansas St.  7-5 -2.01 -2.06 77.70 4.78 1.53 UCLA  6-6 0.52 3.29 74.55 2.86 4.06   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCLA  2.53 UCLA  5.35 UCLA  3.94 Kansas St.  3 Kansas St.  3.15 Kansas St.  1.9   Camping World DUSHEE and Vegas like the Cowboys by almost a touchdown; Sagarin and SRS only like the Fightin' Mullets by about a point.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Virginia Tech  9-3 13.91 15.20 86.46 11.85 0.27 Oklahoma St.  9-3 19.64 21.71 87.67 12.52 0.14   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Oklahoma St.  5.73 Oklahoma St.  6.51 Oklahoma St.  6.12 Oklahoma St.  6.5 Oklahoma St.  1.21 Oklahoma St.  0.7   Texas Everybody likes the Horns except Vegas.  Sagarin likes Texas by almost a TD, everybody else by a field goal or less.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Texas  6-6 6.10 7.67 81.11 7.27 0.96 Missouri  7-5 3.84 3.62 74.35 5.34 -0.52   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas  2.26 Texas  4.06 Texas  3.16 Missouri  1 Texas  6.76 Texas  1.9   Birmingham This bowl pits the teams with the largest differential in strength-of-schedule which translates to a big difference in how the Original and Revised formulations of DUSHEE see this game.  Original DUSHEE has USF as a 9-point favorite; Revised DUSHEE likes Tech by under a point.  Sagarin agrees with Revised DUSHEE; Vegas, SRS, and Average DUSHEE are close.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Texas Tech  6-6 2.68 6.69 76.47 3.39 4.43 South Florida  9-2 11.70 6.04 75.52 7.30 -9.93   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS South Florida  9.03 Texas Tech  0.64 South Florida  4.19 South Florida  2.5 Texas Tech  0.95 South Florida  3.9   Belk It's easy to forget, especially those of us out of state, that A&M is still in Texas.  They face off against Wake Forest in Charlotte where the computer models all like Wake more than Vegas, and Vegas has the Demon Deacons as a 2.5-point favorite.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Wake Forest  7-5 7.59 11.82 80.21 11.66 7.14 Texas A&M  7-5 2.38 3.52 75.20 3.05 3.29   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Wake Forest  5.21 Wake Forest  8.31 Wake Forest  6.76 Wake Forest  2.5 Wake Forest  5.01 Wake Forest  8.6   Liberty The Cyclones face off against Memphis who is playing in their home stadium.  If Vegas views this as a home game for the Tigers, then the bettors view the teams as pretty well dead even, as does the SRS.  DUSHEE likes Memphis while Sagarin likes Iowa State.   Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Memphis  10-2 12.97 13.36 78.04 9.63 -0.67 Iowa St.  7-5 8.48 11.29 82.27 9.38 3.54   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Memphis  4.49 Memphis  2.07 Memphis  3.28 Memphis  3 Iowa St.  4.23 Memphis  0.3   All the Others Here are the other games     DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boca Raton   Florida Atlantic  23.09 Florida Atlantic  23.35 Florida Atlantic  23.22 Florida Atlantic  17 Florida Atlantic  12.79 Florida Atlantic  10.5 Potato   Cent. Michigan  4.16 Cent. Michigan  4.70 Cent. Michigan  4.43 even 0 Wyoming  2.98 Wyoming  1.3 Bahamas   Ohio  10.35 Ohio  12.15 Ohio  11.25 Ohio  8 Ohio  13.73 Ohio  8.7 Dollar General   Toledo  5.92 Toledo  7.62 Toledo  6.77 Toledo  7 Toledo  6.98 Toledo  9.3 Gasparilla   Temple  2.43 Temple  6.44 Temple  4.44 Temple  8 Temple  8.11 Temple  3.0 Quick Lane   Northern Illinois  2.30 Duke  0.12 Northern Illinois  1.09 Duke  2.5 Duke  6.66 Duke  2.8 Independence   Florida St.  3.77 Florida St.  15.49 Florida St.  9.63 Florida St.  14 Florida St.  17.8 Florida St.  11.9 Military   Navy  7.82 Navy  7.36 Navy  7.59 Navy  3.5 Navy  1.72 Navy  3.3 Holiday   Washington St.  2.11 Washington St.  1.18 Washington St.  1.65 Washington St.  4.5 Washington St.  0.8 Michigan St.  3.6 Pinstripe   Iowa  4.66 Iowa  4.05 Iowa  4.36 Iowa  3 Iowa  5.76 Iowa  4.0 Foster Farms   Purdue  3.84 Purdue  5.97 Purdue  4.91 Arizona  4.5 Purdue  1.79 Purdue  5.6 Sun   N.C. State  6.44 N.C. State  9.05 N.C. State  7.75 N.C. State  5 N.C. State  5.4 N.C. State  5.5 Music City   Northwestern  14.26 Northwestern  16.61 Northwestern  15.43 Northwestern  8.5 Northwestern  14.65 Northwestern  10.5 Arizona   Utah St.  0.65 Utah St.  2.30 Utah St.  1.47 Utah St.  3 Utah St.  9.41 Utah St.  9.3 Citrus   Notre Dame  7.60 Notre Dame  10.32 Notre Dame  8.96 LSU  2.5 Notre Dame  6.23 Notre Dame  8.4 Outback   Michigan  12.42 Michigan  16.33 Michigan  14.37 Michigan  8.5 Michigan  7.71 Michigan  7.8 TaxSlayer   Mississippi St.  3.12 Mississippi St.  5.95 Mississippi St.  4.53 Louisville  6 Mississippi St.  1.36 Mississippi St.  0.4  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

End of Regular Season DUSHEE (2017)

Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.   The Frogs   At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as strongly as they started it, as can be seen in the week-to-week tallies (by rows, Opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score):     @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay # OU   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 2.08 24.90 11.70 -4.42   1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 97.75 -26.60 -9.60 59.83   6.73 23.07 29.03   1.26 22.71 27.13 4.77 24.48 6.20 15.29 7.33 0.00   The Frogs' best five performances all occurred in the first 8 games of the season.  Arguably their worst four performances (WVU looks worse due to their late-season swoon after Grier got hurt) occurred in the last 6 games.  After showing some flashes of brilliance against SMU and Oklahoma State, the offense grew inconsistent and less threatening as the season progressed and while the defense was generally very impressive down the stretch, Oklahoma made them look very pedestrian twice.   But remember, the Frogs were 6-7 and ranked 50th a year ago.  Any of us would have taken 10-3 and a clear 2nd place finish in the conference this time last year.   The Frogs Final Opponent: Stanford   So the Trees went 9-4, also losing their conference championship rematch, but losing it in a slightly more impressive fashion (albeit against a weaker opponent).  Stanford sits at 26th in the DUSHEE rankings, but are only a spot behind the Frogs in point differential (TCU: 14.8, Stanford: 13.7).  The Frogs advantage is mostly in yardage differential (TCU: 84.1, Stanford: 22.3).  So Stanford has had to move the ball less to get its points, usually a good sign that Stanford has gotten more turnovers than the Frogs have, and that bears out -- Stanford has a turnover margin per game of 1.15 (6th in the country) versus TCU's 0.31 (49th).   Stanford's week-to-week numbers look like this:   # Rice @ USC @ SDSU  UCLA  ASU @ Utah  Ore   @ OreSt @ WSU  Wash  Cal  ND # USC 38.73 -10.58 9.00 22.91 11.64 7.90 50.70   -26.00 2.00 30.10 1.20 34.36 5.67 349.91 -212.83 -22.60 -63.18 79.55 53.10 297.30   -201.20 -133.70 216.40 5.10 1.36 -79.58 43.04 -17.53 4.89 12.16 11.67 7.88 48.43   -27.23 -5.25 30.71 1.05 22.98 -0.14   In this, you see that Stanford has been really very inconsistent (see last week's blog post for more discussion of this); in fact the Trees are among the 10 most inconsistent teams in college football this season..  Against Rice, Oregon, and Washington, Stanford played like world-beaters, all better performances than any single TCU game.  Against USC (both times, but particularly the first time), Oregon State, and Washington State, the Cardinal were between below average and pretty terrible, far worse than TCU has looked in any one game this year.  Stanford beat Oregon State by 1 and were outgained by 42 (coming off of a bye week); Oregon beat Oregon State by 59 and outgained them by 366.  Oregon State is Kansas.   So if we put both teams in the ol' Monte Carlo simulator, the Frogs win 56% of the time by an average of about 3.4 points.   Performances of the (last two) Week(s) Top 3 43.32 Georgia vs. Auburn (Point Margin: 21, Yardage Margin: 162) 37.47 Clemson vs. Miami (PM: 35, YM: 117) 36.60 Oklahoma vs. TCU (PM: 24, YM: 144)   Bottom 3 -40.61 Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian St. (PM: -49, YM: -239) -36.53 Louisiana-Monroe at Florida St. (PM: -32, YM: -204) -23.47 UMass at FIU (PM: -18, YM: -134)   Performances of the Year   Since we're at the end of the regular season, I thought this would be a good time to go back and look at the games that received the highest and lowest DUSHEE scores during the season.  The best and worst performances were both owned by Roy Moore's home state.  Three of the ten worst performances of the year were by the San Jose (effing) State Spartans.   Top 10 63.42 Alabama (Week 4) at Vanderbilt 59-0 61.96 Alabama (Week 5) vs. Mississippi 66-3 57.22 Iowa (Week 10) vs. Ohio State 55-24 56.79 Ohio State (Week 11) vs. Michigan St. 48-3  54.46 Auburn (Week 11) vs. Georgia 40-17 48.82 Penn St. (Week 3) vs. Georgia St. 56-0 48.43 Stanford (Week 7) vs. Oregon 49-7 47.73 Auburn (Week 5) vs. Mississippi St. 49-10 47.52 Florida Atlantic (Week 8) at North Texas 69-31 47.46 Penn St. (Week 1) vs. Akron 52-0   Bottom 10 -72.39 South Alabama (Week 12) at Georgia Southern 0-52 -61.78 San Jose St. (Week 4) vs. Utah St. 10-61 -57.17 San Jose St. (Week 2) at Texas 0-56 -56.17 Oregon St. (Week 13) at Oregon 10-69 -54.75 Rice (Week 1) vs. Stanford 7-62 -54.53 Cincinnati (Week 12) at East Carolina 20-48 -54.43 UNC-Charlotte (Week 2) at Kansas St. 7-55 -51.58 New Mexico (Week 11) at Texas A&M 14-55 -51.58 Coastal Carolina (Week 9) vs. Texas St. 7-27 -49.60 San Jose St. (Week 11) at Nevada 14-59   Conference Rankings   I recognize that this will be an unpopular ranking, but if you average up the DUSHEE scores for all the teams in each conference, the Big 10 comes out as the top conference, edging out the ACC.  The Big 12 started the year strong, sitting at one or two through most of the season, but fell to 4th by the end of the season as other conferences added more non-conference games.  The AAC is about where the Mountain West was when the Frogs were in the conference, clearly a notch or two below the "Power 5" but a notch or two above the other "Group of 5" conferences.  Our old home is now closer to the MAC and Sun Belt than they are to the American Athletic Conference, let alone the big boys.   B10 5.72 ACC 5.51 SEC 5.23 B12 4.73 P12 3.48 AAC -0.69 MWC -5.84 MAC -7.29 CUSA -7.38 SBC -8.11   Final Regular Season Rankings   Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 0 0.36 2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 1 -0.13 3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 1 1.47 4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 -2 -2.64 5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 0 0.48 6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 0 -0.29 7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 1 1.09 8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 -1 -0.57 9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 0 -0.29 10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 0 -0.27 11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 0 -0.45 12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 0 -0.23 13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 0 -0.51 14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 0 -1.27 15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 0 -0.25 16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 0 0.19 17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 9 1.06 18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 4 0.34 19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 -2 -0.37 20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 -2 -0.23 21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 2 0.43 22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 -1 -0.19 23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 -3 -0.58 24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 -5 -0.61 25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 0 -0.30 26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 -2 -0.85 27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 1 -0.48 28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 1 -0.09 29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 -2 -1.45 30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 3 0.41 31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 -1 -0.25 32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 -1 -0.26 33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 -1 -0.42 34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 2 0.79 35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 -1 -0.10 36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 -1 -0.25 37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 4 0.37 38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 -1 -0.17 39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 -1 -0.29 40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 0 -0.13 41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 -2 -0.28 42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 2 1.49 43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 -1 -0.16 44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 -1 -0.05 45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 2 0.06 46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 -1 -0.30 47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 -1 -0.23 48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 13 3.02 49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 10 1.87 50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 2 0.32 51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 -2 -0.21 52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 -4 -0.40 53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 0 0.01 54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 -3 -0.30 55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 0 -0.04 56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 -6 -0.68 57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 -3 -0.94 58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 0 -0.04 59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 -2 -0.21 60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 -4 -0.50 61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 -1 -0.29 62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 1 0.01 63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 1 -0.04 64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 -2 -0.43 65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 0 0.08 66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 1 -0.36 67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 2 -0.01 68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 0 -0.43 69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 -3 -1.15 70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 1 0.15 71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 -1 -0.31 72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 1 -0.07 73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 3 0.05 74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 0 -0.01 75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 -3 -0.40 76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 1 0.06 77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 -2 -0.14 78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 0 -0.67 79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 2 0.35 80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 -1 -0.25 81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 -1 -0.40 82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 11 2.32 83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 -1 0.03 84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 1 0.30 85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 -1 -0.07 86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 -3 -0.29 87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 -1 -0.08 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 0 0.00 89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 1 0.23 90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 -1 0.00 91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 -4 -1.10 92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 -1 -0.40 93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 -1 -0.14 94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 1 -0.03 95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 -1 -0.31 96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 1 -0.05 97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 2 -0.09 98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 0 -0.51 99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 5 0.36 100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 0 -0.39 101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 -5 -2.52 102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 1 0.00 103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 -2 -0.55 104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 1 -0.36 105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 -3 -0.53 106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 3 1.43 107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 0 0.25 108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 3 0.99 109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 -3 -1.50 110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 -2 -0.17 111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 -1 -0.03 112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88 0 -0.18 113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 0 0.00 114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 0 0.00 115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 0 -0.37 116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 0 -0.33 117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 0 -0.27 118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 0 -0.30 119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 1 -0.06 120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 -1 -0.12 121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 1 -0.06 122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 -1 -1.99 123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 0 -0.14 124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 0 -0.13 125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 1 0.34 126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 -1 0.04 127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 0 -0.27 128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 0 0.02 129 UTEP  -25.84 -197.46 -26.95 0 -0.13 130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 0 -0.10   By Conference AAC 9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 ACC 7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 B1G 1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 CUSA 17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 129 UTEP  -25.85 -197.45 -26.95 Indies 11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 MAC 27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 MWC 25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 P12 12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 SBC 38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 SEC 2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 13 (2017)

No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.   TCU Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 1.73 24.90 11.70   1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 103.45 -26.60 -9.60   6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33   TCU's Next Opponent (OU) Week-to-Week  UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex @ KSU  Ttech @ OkSt  TCU @ Kan  WVU 26.18 42.45 41.30 -4.80   1.20 13.64 11.60 22.70 28.55 36.10 9.90 32.10 317.73 414.45 300.90 57.50   93.90 150.64 141.50 206.60 330.18 201.20 156.90 300.80 33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17   Conference Rankings B10 6.02 SEC 5.52 ACC 5.38 B12 5.06 P12 3.63 AAC -0.42 MWC -5.70 MAC -7.31 CUSA -7.58 SBC -8.15   Top 3 Performances 39.46 Auburn vs. Alabama (+12 Point Margin, +31 Yardage Margin) 39.36 Georgia at Georgia Tech (+31 PM, +245 YM) 38.44 Penn St. at Maryland (+63 PM, +231 YM)   Bottom 3 Performances -56.13 Oregon St. at Oregon (-59 PM, -366 YM) -45.07 Texas St. at Troy (-53 PM, -341 YM) -41.17 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (-18 PM, -291 YM)   Overall Rankings Rank Team P/G Y/G Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 0 -1.23 2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 1 0.86 3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 -1 -1.73 4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 0 0.66 5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 0 0.54 6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 0 0.99 7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 0 0.78 8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 0 0.36 9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 1 0.27 10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 1 -0.31 11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 -2 -1.45 12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 1 1.47 13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 -1 -1.93 14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 0 -1.33 15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 0 -1.33 16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 5 1.58 17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 3 0.27 18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 5 2.10 19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 8 2.21 20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 6 2.04 21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 -4 -1.59 22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 -4 -1.25 23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 1 1.43 24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 1 1.32 25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 -6 -0.96 26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 -4 -0.16 27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 -11 -3.97 28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 6 2.00 29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 1 0.25 30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 2 0.76 31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 4 1.16 32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 -3 -0.41 33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 -5 -0.76 34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 8 2.54 35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 2 -0.64 36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 -3 -1.64 37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 15 3.79 38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 -7 -2.47 39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 -3 -1.39 40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 5 1.97 41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 2 1.53 42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 -3 -0.87 43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 5 1.79 44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 5 1.10 45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 -5 -1.79 46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 -2 -0.41 47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 -6 -0.92 48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 -2 -0.44 49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 1 0.35 50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 -12 -3.95 51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 2 0.63 52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 2 0.96 53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 -6 -0.92 54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 -3 -0.23 55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 3 1.36 56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 0 0.43 57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 7 1.72 58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 1 0.88 59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 -4 -0.09 60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 1 0.34 61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 8 1.92 62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 3 0.45 63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 -6 -1.59 64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 -4 -0.69 65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 -2 -0.83 66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 1 0.31 67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 12 2.44 68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 3 0.12 69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 -7 -2.03 70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 3 0.42 71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 -1 -0.69 72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 3 0.16 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 13 2.56 74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 6 1.44 75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 -3 -0.76 76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 -8 -1.48 77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 10 2.24 78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 -1 0.30 79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 -5 -1.06 80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 -14 -2.91 81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 -5 -1.15 82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 6 0.41 83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 2 0.18 84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 0 -0.18 85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 11 2.99 86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 -3 -0.70 87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 3 0.48 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 -6 -1.22 89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 -11 -2.34 90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 4 1.86 91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 -2 -1.01 92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 -11 -2.34 93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 7 2.29 94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 -1 -0.14 95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 0 0.40 96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 -4 -0.44 97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 7 1.85 98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 -1 -0.62 99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 -1 -0.51 100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 -1 -0.52 101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 -10 -2.86 102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 5 1.58 103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 5 1.58 104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 -1 -0.28 105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 -3 -0.66 106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 4 2.02 107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 -1 0.09 108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 -3 -1.91 109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 2 0.31 110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 -1 -0.63 111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 1 0.36 112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70 -11 -3.76 113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 10 3.39 114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 2 1.06 115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 -2 -1.62 116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 6 0.88 117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 4 0.05 118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 -3 -1.61 119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 -5 -2.53 120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 -3 -1.22 121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 -3 -1.53 122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 -2 -2.65 123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 -4 -4.27 124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 0 1.09 125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 2 0.97 126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 0 0.56 127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 -2 -0.88 128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 0 1.62 129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 0 1.09 130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 0 3.47   By Conference AAC 9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 ACC 8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 B1G 1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 CUSA 26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 Indies 11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 MAC 28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 MWC 25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 P12 12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 SBC 37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 SEC 2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

What Does It Mean When Someone Has a 60% Chance of Winning?

Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.   But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts the odds of something happening at 70% and that something doesn't happen, does it mean that the analysis was wrong (spoiler: almost certainly, but probably not in the way you think)? Or did something improbable simply happen (spoiler: also almost certainly)?   At the crux of understanding of this topic, we first have to get comfortable with the concept of uncertainty.  Those in the science/statistics game are trained to get comfortable with the concept, but it is not a concept that humans necessarily have a natural affinity for.  In fact, uncertainty makes most people really uncomfortable.  We don't like to think of forces that act on us as being in any way random.  "Everything happens for a reason," we love to tell ourselves.   But whether we like uncertainty or not, every halfway complex interaction that occurs is fraught with uncertainty and randomness.  The variables at play are many and unaccountable with the time and hardware available to us in the moment to assess them.  Did that man in Pennsylvania see an ad right before the election that made him change his vote?  Did that woman in Wisconsin have a child get sick the morning of the election which caused her not to vote when she would have?   Now don't worry ... I'm not going to talk politics here.  We're going to use college football for our example, but the principles apply to the political example too.   So how does someone determine the odds of a team winning?   First, you need some data.  For this example, we'll use DUSHEE's modified Point Differential metric.  And let's take two teams, totally at random ... say TCU and Oklahoma.   As I write this, TCU has played 11 DUSHEE-recognized games, Oklahoma has played 12.  The week-to-week DUSHEE score for each team is as follows:   TCU   Ark SMU OkSt   WVU KSU Kan ISU Tex OU Ttech Bay   6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33 OU UTEP OhSt Tulane Bay   ISU Tex KSU Ttech OkSt TCU Kan WVU 33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17   In theory, the DUSHEE score should represent how many points better (or worse) the team performed than an average team would have performed against that team.  You will note that there is a fair amount of variability in how each team has performed game-to-game.  TCU has bounced between 1.27 (against WVU) and 29.01 (Oklahoma State) for an average of 15.27.  Oklahoma has played between -0.38 (against Baylor) and 48.65 (Ohio State) for an average of 25.43.   On average, Oklahoma has been about 10 points better than the Frogs.  However, the Sooners' performance has also been much more inconsistent -- their worst performance was worse than TCU's and their best performance was (much) better.  The range (best minus worst) of Oklahoma's performance (49.0) has been much greater than TCU's (27.7).   So while you are more likely to get a 40+ point differential performance from OU (they've done it twice, TCU hasn't even hit 30), OU is also more likely to give a negative point differential performance than TCU is.   You Are Such a Standard Deviant   The most common method for measuring this spread is standard deviation.  I'm going to assume that most of you have heard the term and I'm going to assume that the majority either know what it means or don't care enough to spend time going into it here.  I talked a bit about it in a blog post several years ago on the Monte Carlo method.   But I do need to make a few points about standard deviation before we proceed.  First, using standard deviation (or any assessment of spread) is a bit dicey when talking about as few data points as we have here (11-12 games).  Second, standard deviation is based on the assumption that the data being analyzed has a "normal" or "bell-curve" distribution; i.e., a team is more likely to perform at or near their average performance than they are further away from average.   Go back to the game-to-game data for each team above and you can see how well that second assumption holds up.  TCU, in particular, has only played one game near their average (last week, against Tech), and has instead shown more of a binomial distribution with five games grouped closely around 5 and five games grouped around 25.     TCU's is not a distribution that looks particularly bell-curvy.  More bathtubby.  And Oklahoma's distribution doesn't exactly look like a bell curve either.  But let's take our lack of data points excuse and use it to ignore our lack of bell-curviness.  We'll assume that the non-normal distribution of the data is because we just don't have enough data points and that as the Frogs continued to play more hypothetical games, they'd get more "average" performances and start making their bathtub look more like a bell.  There is no reason to expect that teams would not have a normal distribution given enough data.   So if you do the calculation, TCU's mean performance is currently at 15.3 with a standard deviation of 10.6.  Statistically, that means that there is a roughly 63% probability that TCU's DUSHEE Score in any one game will be between 4.7 and 25.9 (15.3 +/- 10.6).   Oklahoma's mean performance is currently 25.4 with a standard deviation of 15.5, meaning that we should expect 63% of Oklahoma's games to be between 9.9 and 40.9.   So, while Oklahoma has been better, on average, than the Frogs, they've also been more inconsistent.   Revisiting the French Riviera   So we can use these numbers to run what you often hear called "simulated" games.  There are any number of ways you can go about "simulating" a game.  You could play a bunch of games on your Xbox and assume the programmers have accurately accounted for each player's ability and matchups with opposing players and coaching and play-calling and all those other intangibles that make up the outcome of a game.  You could go far deeper into the analytics than I do with DUSHEE and have a far more complex multi-variate determination of outcome.   Perhaps the most simple way to "simulate" many games against two teams is to assume that the two teams' performances over many games will follow a normal distribution based on the limited set of data we talked about above.  So if we assume that the average and range of performance the teams have demonstrated so far is typical (and it might not be ... for instance the fact that Oklahoma has proven to be less consistent over 12 games than the Frogs have might be over-estimated given the limited data), then we can begin to predict how the teams would perform against each other over many, many games.   So if we take TCU's and Oklahoma's mean and standard deviations that we calculated above and use them to determine how the teams will perform over a 10,000 game season, the distribution in the figure above begins to look like this:     Now there are some bell curves.   Facing Baker Mayfield 10,000 Times   So we've made a lot of assumptions at this point.  Many of them questionably asserted, but not totally unreasonable.   Now we bring randomness into play (which is where the "Monte Carlo" comes in to it).  Using a random number generator, you weigh the result of the random number within the bounds of the performance bell curve for each team (this is done using the "NORMINV" function in Excel, for anyone playing along at home).  Thus, outcomes near the mean of the bell curve are more likely than outcomes far from the mean.  A random number (between 0 and 1) is generated for TCU and another random number is generated for Oklahoma; if the random number is near 0.5, the team performs at its mean.  As the random number approaches 0, the team's performance moves out in to the left tail of the bell curve; approaching 1, the team is in the right tail.   So to simulate TCU and Oklahoma facing off 10,000 times (DUSHEE predicts the probability that Mayfield would make an obscene gesture toward the TCU sideline after taking out a Arlington police officer with a warmup pass at 3%), you generate 10,000 random numbers for TCU and 10,000 for Oklahoma and you pair them up.  If the random number for Oklahoma lands at a location on its bell curve further to the right than TCU's, Oklahoma wins.  You can see from the bell curves above that Oklahoma has much more real estate in the 30 to 80 range than TCU does ... so when Oklahoma lands in this range, they are very likely to win.   If you play this simulation out, on a neutral field (i.e., not giving any advantage to the home team), Oklahoma wins somewhere between 70-72% of the time.  The distribution of outcomes looks like this:     So, when you begin to look at these games in a probabilistic manner, you can convince yourself pretty easily that the H2H argument as the be all, end all is a very incomplete picture.  No one thinks Syracuse is a better team than Clemson.  Yet, on October 13, Syracuse beat Clemson 27-24 in the Carrier Dome.  If you run the same simulation I just showed for TCU-Oklahoma and give Syracuse the DUSHEE-calculated 3.4 points for home field advantage, Clemson beats Syracuse 87% of the time by an average margin of 23 points.  But 13% of the time, Syracuse wins, just a little worse than the odds of rolling a six on a cubic die.   Closing Asides and Thoughts   As stated above, on average, home field is giving a 3.4 point advantage to the home team.  When a team's DUSHEE score is boosted by that amount, it improves the team's chances of winning by about 3-5%.   And if you are skeptical about whether Oklahoma's inconsistency relative to TCU's is real (as I am), if you give Oklahoma the same standard deviation as TCU's, Oklahoma's chances of winning go up to 75%.  By tightening Oklahoma's bell curve, Oklahoma becomes less likely to blow TCU out, but since that right tail portion of Oklahoma's bell curve is beyond TCU's right tail bell curve, Oklahoma was going to win those games anyway.  Conversely, it also becomes less likely that Oklahoma will play a stinker (left tail of the bell curve) where TCU actually has a chance to win.  So we kinda need to hope that Oklahoma's relative inconsistency (compared to the Frogs) over 12 games is real.   So take it easy on Nate Silver and his ilk over "missing" on the 2016 election.  Their predictions are only as good as the data they have and Quinnipiac polls (as measures of how people are going to vote) are probably worse data sources than college football games.  The uncertainty in those polls is why they were still giving Trump a 20-40% chance to win.  Basically the odds of flipping two coins and getting two heads.  About the odds we have against Oklahoma.   So you're telling me there's a chance ...

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Week 12 (2017)

DUSHEE still loves the Ojai-uh Bucks and has now moved three SEC teams into slots 2-4.  A playoff final 4 that would be enough to make college football fans in every other part of the country outside the southeast and Ohio vomit.   The Frogs slid yet another spot to 14th.  The Frogs slow trickle down through the standings seems to be due to a general drop in the performance of the Big XII-II as a whole as the conference dropped from the 2nd spot to the 4th spot, passed by both the ACC and SEC this week.  DUSHEE has rewarded those conferences for blowing out their patsies this week (although again, remember that Mercer and the Citadel are ignored in the ranking).   It was a big week for the non-Power 5 schools (what is the euphemism ESPN has come up with for them?) as Boise (19), Memphis (21), and Florida Atlantic (22) all found their way into the top 25.  All three of those schools are out of the top 25 in the DUSHEE Extra Crispy rankings (29, 30, and 38, respectively) which punish poor schedule strength more (86th, 78th, and 85th, respectively).  The Frogs, BTW, are 12th in the Extra Crispy poll (28th SOS).    Frogs Week-to-Week   It was a middlin' performance for the Frogs; the point differential among the Frogs' better numbers of the year, but for the second time this season, TCU went negative in yardage differential (WVU the other instance). In general, the Frogs have not done well in yardage differential; on average, teams have a yardage differential to point differential ratio of 6.7 yards for every point.  The Frogs have only exceeded that average three times: Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  The Frogs average YD:PD ratio is 4.4.  What this means varies depending on interpretation -- either the Frogs have been very efficient or the Frogs have been a little lucky.  The scores should have been closer in a lot of the Frogs' games than they were based on how well the offense moved the ball relative to how well the defense kept the opposing offense from moving the ball.      @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech   9.11 23.22 29.60   12.33 26.44 16.89 2.22 28.10 0.90 24.56   18.67 155.22 136.10   -66.89 115.89 373.89 71.11 142.00 98.80 -27.22   7.00 23.16 26.47   4.91 23.36 29.76 5.00 25.76 5.49 15.02   Frogs Next Opponent Week-to-Week: Rapey Bears   Despite their record, Baylor has only been truly awful three times this season: Duke, Oklahoma State, and Texas.  But they've only played like an above average team once, against Oklahoma.  In fact they played Oklahoma better than the Frogs did.  In the Bears other six games, they have been squarely average.   The worst TCU performance this year would have beaten any individual Baylor performance other than Oklahoma.  Using DUSHEE, and running 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations, TCU beats Baylor 94% of the time and has the Frogs as a 27 point favorite.  This game should be no problem.  Hopefully I do not regret those words on Friday.      UTSA @ Duke  OU @ KSU   @ OkSt  WVU  Tex @ Kan # Ttech  ISU   -1.38 -15.67 11.90 -10.22   -32.00 2.33 -24.70 1.33 -17.67 -1.11   -13.50 -132.89 102.10 -48.56   -223.60 50.89 -141.80 21.67 215.00 -56.67   -1.58 -17.02 12.99 -9.22   -32.40 4.07 -23.48 1.96 -1.14 -3.55   Conference Rankings   B10 6.57 SEC 6.28 ACC 5.78 B12 5.52 P12 3.81 AAC -0.58 MWC -5.94 MAC -7.84 CUSA -8.25 SBC -8.74   Top 3 Performances   49.71 - Louisville vs. Syracuse (46 Point Margin, 392 Yardage Margin) 44.93 - Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama (52 PM, 388 YM) 39.22 - Northwestern vs. Minnesota (39 PM, 181 YM)   Bottom 3 Performances   -77.15 - South Alabama at Georgia Southern (-52 PM, -388 YM) -52.10 - Cincinnati at East Carolina (-28 PM, -252 YM) -46.13 - Rutgers at Indiana (-41 PM, -313 YM)   Overall Rankings   Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  27.50 272.25 31.81 0 0.33 2 Alabama  29.33 233.84 31.13 0 0.07 3 Auburn  27.24 210.87 28.60 0 1.13 4 Georgia  25.47 165.84 25.19 2 0.88 5 Oklahoma  21.15 217.93 24.88 -1 -0.84 6 Penn St.  26.15 138.81 24.31 -1 -1.07 7 Wisconsin  23.73 169.84 24.23 2 1.39 8 Clemson  21.26 188.43 23.50 -1 -0.46 9 Notre Dame  21.55 127.79 20.69 1 -1.33 10 UCF  21.98 121.05 20.65 1 -1.25 11 Oklahoma St.  17.54 172.23 20.22 -3 -2.75 12 Mississippi St.  16.16 129.77 17.20 0 -1.83 13 Washington  17.60 101.28 16.75 1 -0.67 14 TCU  17.34 101.76 16.59 -1 -0.94 15 Virginia Tech  15.84 99.77 15.49 0 -1.44 16 Miami (FL)  17.98 50.12 14.47 0 -2.28 17 Washington St.  9.67 137.48 13.25 2 -0.28 18 USC  12.33 94.10 12.88 -1 -2.11 19 Boise St.  12.51 73.54 11.98 7 1.49 20 Michigan  9.72 109.40 11.89 0 -0.29 21 Memphis  13.07 50.14 11.20 7 1.22 22 Florida Atlantic  13.94 37.12 11.13 10 2.12 23 South Florida  7.91 92.06 9.83 -2 -1.83 24 Louisville  5.22 127.23 9.77 18 4.70 25 Stanford  12.22 32.10 9.73 2 -0.55 26 LSU  7.57 94.71 9.73 -3 -1.23 27 Iowa  14.03 4.20 9.56 -5 -1.80 28 N.C. State  7.29 90.66 9.35 1 -0.34 29 Iowa St.  11.74 29.74 9.30 -5 -1.62 30 Michigan St.  6.65 96.21 9.20 -5 -1.62 31 Georgia Tech  5.03 112.86 8.94 -13 -4.63 32 San Diego St.  7.72 66.81 8.45 -1 -0.59 33 Wake Forest  9.82 38.32 8.45 -3 -1.01 34 Toledo  8.29 52.77 8.14 2 0.92 35 Northwestern  9.67 28.70 7.87 9 2.93 36 Texas  8.08 48.23 7.77 2 1.30 37 Purdue  8.35 38.35 7.47 -4 -0.48 38 Texas A&M  6.59 53.11 7.02 -1 0.51 39 Navy  5.64 51.25 6.30 0 0.03 40 West Virginia  5.28 49.15 5.95 -6 -1.64 41 Northern Illinois  5.13 27.98 4.80 4 0.82 42 Oregon  2.58 61.80 4.78 12 3.16 43 Boston Coll.  6.32 7.92 4.61 -3 -0.89 44 Missouri  5.58 15.44 4.48 2 0.61 45 Utah  3.33 42.75 4.33 5 1.31 46 Indiana  1.75 53.65 3.82 14 3.10 47 Arizona  4.29 15.81 3.64 -12 -3.62 48 Fresno St.  3.17 26.18 3.41 0 -0.08 49 Arkansas St.  3.68 15.15 3.20 7 1.92 50 Ohio  4.85 -6.17 2.93 -9 -2.27 51 SMU  4.60 -3.42 2.89 -8 -2.14 52 Troy  2.90 18.73 2.86 1 1.06 53 Texas Tech  1.13 32.19 2.35 -4 -0.74 54 Marshall  2.05 9.21 1.82 -2 -0.39 55 Florida St.  1.04 20.12 1.69 0 0.24 56 Army  1.31 13.29 1.53 5 0.81 57 UT-San Antonio -1.76 51.75 1.39 6 1.64 58 Arizona St.  1.50 4.64 1.23 -7 -1.10 59 Duke  0.52 9.23 0.80 13 3.62 60 Colorado St.  -0.60 17.68 0.48 2 -0.08 61 UCLA  0.69 0.22 0.47 3 0.77 62 East. Michigan  0.39 3.79 0.45 -3 -0.52 63 South Carolina  3.07 -38.64 0.13 2 0.65 64 Houston  1.20 -14.29 0.09 -7 -1.15 65 Southern Miss  -3.89 45.74 -0.33 10 2.78 66 Nebraska  -1.17 5.43 -0.51 0 0.58 67 North Texas  -1.63 0.57 -1.06 2 1.07 68 Syracuse  -3.45 25.04 -1.06 -21 -4.73 69 Appalachian State -1.20 -8.11 -1.20 -2 0.64 70 W. Michigan  0.57 -35.65 -1.38 6 1.90 71 Temple  -3.68 17.65 -1.58 -1 1.02 72 California  -0.50 -28.64 -1.75 -4 0.36 73 Kansas St.  2.44 -75.71 -2.12 4 1.43 74 Minnesota  -0.93 -32.16 -2.21 -16 -3.31 75 Virginia  -4.21 10.11 -2.31 7 2.16 76 Florida  -2.16 -24.23 -2.64 17 3.74 77 Mississippi  -4.20 -4.58 -3.03 -4 -0.15 78 Colorado  -1.71 -43.34 -3.28 -4 -0.25 79 Pittsburgh  -3.88 -18.54 -3.51 2 0.74 80 Buffalo  -3.59 -31.26 -3.94 -1 0.09 81 Wyoming  0.64 -94.57 -4.25 6 1.09 82 Kentucky  -0.76 -76.11 -4.27 2 0.40 83 Miami (OH)  -6.57 -3.30 -4.54 2 0.26 84 Air Force  -6.09 -10.41 -4.57 -6 -0.87 85 Utah St.  -1.48 -77.21 -4.81 14 3.77 86 Louisiana Tech  -4.92 -31.59 -4.84 -3 -0.18 87 Cent. Michigan  -4.14 -42.49 -4.86 -16 -2.06 88 Tulane  -2.94 -59.30 -4.90 3 1.22 89 Arkansas  -6.29 -21.20 -5.24 0 0.67 90 Massachusetts -8.58 -3.70 -5.91 -2 -0.22 91 Maryland  -5.96 -52.35 -6.56 1 -0.30 92 LA Monroe  -6.04 -56.77 -6.84 5 0.61 93 Baylor  -8.72 -22.74 -6.94 2 0.19 94 New Mexico St.  -10.31 -15.79 -7.65 2 -0.49 95 UAB -7.08 -59.36 -7.66 -9 -2.62 96 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.02 -35.96 -7.79 -6 -1.83 97 Georgia State -9.06 -38.09 -7.93 1 -0.20 98 UNLV  -7.95 -60.23 -8.28 2 0.68 99 Tulsa  -5.66 -100.29 -8.74 9 3.11 100 Florida Intl.  -8.35 -67.96 -8.93 -6 -2.43 101 Tennessee  -7.23 -83.28 -8.94 2 0.75 102 North Carolina  -8.17 -78.33 -9.32 -1 0.29 103 West. Kentucky  -10.46 -53.91 -9.64 4 2.02 104 Nevada  -8.07 -89.22 -9.79 1 1.21 105 Cincinnati  -11.87 -45.99 -10.19 -25 -6.07 106 Akron  -6.18 -146.86 -11.39 8 3.19 107 BYU  -10.80 -84.97 -11.41 6 2.89 108 Vanderbilt  -10.11 -95.36 -11.46 -2 -0.23 109 New Mexico  -13.61 -56.55 -11.87 1 0.93 110 Georgia Southern -12.62 -84.90 -12.61 13 8.07 111 Idaho  -12.81 -84.19 -12.71 -2 -0.45 112 Coastal Carolina -13.11 -85.40 -12.97 0 0.24 113 Illinois  -12.83 -113.10 -14.15 -2 -1.02 114 Rutgers  -12.08 -136.50 -14.81 -10 -4.11 115 East Carolina  -16.24 -94.67 -15.51 6 3.37 116 South Alabama -14.82 -122.37 -15.94 -14 -6.25 117 Old Dominion -15.65 -115.42 -16.15 0 -0.64 118 LA Lafayette  -15.41 -119.77 -16.20 4 3.40 119 Oregon St.  -17.27 -97.24 -16.33 -3 -0.89 120 Texas St. -17.71 -103.73 -16.94 -2 0.19 121 Hawaii  -19.02 -86.17 -16.94 -6 -1.87 122 Connecticut  -15.95 -129.13 -17.02 -3 0.39 123 Bowling Green  -15.78 -151.23 -18.00 -3 0.41 124 Rice  -23.87 -124.49 -22.07 1 0.70 125 Kansas  -24.40 -131.62 -22.78 1 0.13 126 UNC-Charlotte -22.64 -169.54 -23.48 -2 -2.79 127 Kent St.  -24.61 -149.76 -23.82 0 1.84 128 Ball St.  -28.51 -150.13 -26.43 0 0.49 129 UTEP  -26.70 -204.12 -27.90 0 0.78 130 San Jose St.  -34.44 -244.13 -35.04 0 1.08   By Conference   AAC 10 UCF  21.98 121.05 20.65 21 Memphis  13.07 50.14 11.20 23 South Florida  7.91 92.06 9.83 39 Navy  5.64 51.25 6.30 51 SMU  4.60 -3.42 2.89 64 Houston  1.20 -14.29 0.09 71 Temple  -3.68 17.65 -1.58 88 Tulane  -2.94 -59.30 -4.90 99 Tulsa  -5.66 -100.29 -8.74 105 Cincinnati  -11.87 -45.99 -10.19 115 East Carolina  -16.24 -94.67 -15.51 122 Connecticut  -15.95 -129.13 -17.02 ACC 8 Clemson  21.26 188.43 23.50 15 Virginia Tech  15.84 99.77 15.49 16 Miami (FL)  17.98 50.12 14.47 24 Louisville  5.22 127.23 9.77 28 N.C. State  7.29 90.66 9.35 31 Georgia Tech  5.03 112.86 8.94 33 Wake Forest  9.82 38.32 8.45 43 Boston Coll.  6.32 7.92 4.61 55 Florida St.  1.04 20.12 1.69 59 Duke  0.52 9.23 0.80 68 Syracuse  -3.45 25.04 -1.06 75 Virginia  -4.21 10.11 -2.31 79 Pittsburgh  -3.88 -18.54 -3.51 102 North Carolina  -8.17 -78.33 -9.32 B1G 1 Ohio St.  27.50 272.25 31.81 6 Penn St.  26.15 138.81 24.31 7 Wisconsin  23.73 169.84 24.23 20 Michigan  9.72 109.40 11.89 27 Iowa  14.03 4.20 9.56 30 Michigan St.  6.65 96.21 9.20 35 Northwestern  9.67 28.70 7.87 37 Purdue  8.35 38.35 7.47 46 Indiana  1.75 53.65 3.82 66 Nebraska  -1.17 5.43 -0.51 74 Minnesota  -0.93 -32.16 -2.21 91 Maryland  -5.96 -52.35 -6.56 113 Illinois  -12.83 -113.10 -14.15 114 Rutgers  -12.08 -136.50 -14.81 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma  21.15 217.93 24.88 11 Oklahoma St.  17.54 172.23 20.22 14 TCU  17.34 101.76 16.59 29 Iowa St.  11.74 29.74 9.30 36 Texas  8.08 48.23 7.77 40 West Virginia  5.28 49.15 5.95 53 Texas Tech  1.13 32.19 2.35 73 Kansas St.  2.44 -75.71 -2.12 93 Baylor  -8.72 -22.74 -6.94 125 Kansas  -24.40 -131.62 -22.78 CUSA    
    22 Florida Atlantic  13.94 37.12 11.13 54 Marshall  2.05 9.21 1.82 57 UT-San Antonio -1.76 51.75 1.39 65 Southern Miss  -3.89 45.74 -0.33 67 North Texas  -1.63 0.57 -1.06 86 Louisiana Tech  -4.92 -31.59 -4.84 95 UAB -7.08 -59.36 -7.66 96 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.02 -35.96 -7.79 100 Florida Intl.  -8.35 -67.96 -8.93 103 West. Kentucky  -10.46 -53.91 -9.64 117 Old Dominion -15.65 -115.42 -16.15 124 Rice  -23.87 -124.49 -22.07 126 UNC-Charlotte -22.64 -169.54 -23.48 129 UTEP  -26.70 -204.12 -27.90 Indies 9 Notre Dame  21.55 127.79 20.69 56 Army  1.31 13.29 1.53 90 Massachusetts -8.58 -3.70 -5.91 107 BYU  -10.80 -84.97 -11.41 MAC 34 Toledo  8.29 52.77 8.14 41 Northern Illinois  5.13 27.98 4.80 50 Ohio  4.85 -6.17 2.93 62 East. Michigan  0.39 3.79 0.45 70 W. Michigan  0.57 -35.65 -1.38 80 Buffalo  -3.59 -31.26 -3.94 83 Miami (OH)  -6.57 -3.30 -4.54 87 Cent. Michigan  -4.14 -42.49 -4.86 106 Akron  -6.18 -146.86 -11.39 123 Bowling Green  -15.78 -151.23 -18.00 127 Kent St.  -24.61 -149.76 -23.82 128 Ball St.  -28.51 -150.13 -26.43 MWC 19 Boise St.  12.51 73.54 11.98 32 San Diego St.  7.72 66.81 8.45 48 Fresno St.  3.17 26.18 3.41 60 Colorado St.  -0.60 17.68 0.48 81 Wyoming  0.64 -94.57 -4.25 84 Air Force  -6.09 -10.41 -4.57 85 Utah St.  -1.48 -77.21 -4.81 98 UNLV  -7.95 -60.23 -8.28 104 Nevada  -8.07 -89.22 -9.79 109 New Mexico  -13.61 -56.55 -11.87 121 Hawaii  -19.02 -86.17 -16.94 130 San Jose St.  -34.44 -244.13 -35.04 P12 13 Washington  17.60 101.28 16.75 17 Washington St.  9.67 137.48 13.25 18 USC  12.33 94.10 12.88 25 Stanford  12.22 32.10 9.73 42 Oregon  2.58 61.80 4.78 45 Utah  3.33 42.75 4.33 47 Arizona  4.29 15.81 3.64 58 Arizona St.  1.50 4.64 1.23 61 UCLA  0.69 0.22 0.47 72 California  -0.50 -28.64 -1.75 78 Colorado  -1.71 -43.34 -3.28 119 Oregon St.  -17.27 -97.24 -16.33 SBC 49 Arkansas St.  3.68 15.15 3.20 52 Troy  2.90 18.73 2.86 69 Appalachian State -1.20 -8.11 -1.20 92 LA Monroe  -6.04 -56.77 -6.84 94 New Mexico St.  -10.31 -15.79 -7.65 97 Georgia State -9.06 -38.09 -7.93 110 Georgia Southern -12.62 -84.90 -12.61 111 Idaho  -12.81 -84.19 -12.71 112 Coastal Carolina -13.11 -85.40 -12.97 116 South Alabama -14.82 -122.37 -15.94 118 LA Lafayette  -15.41 -119.77 -16.20 120 Texas St. -17.71 -103.73 -16.94 SEC 2 Alabama  29.33 233.84 31.13 3 Auburn  27.24 210.87 28.60 4 Georgia  25.47 165.84 25.19 12 Mississippi St.  16.16 129.77 17.20 26 LSU  7.57 94.71 9.73 38 Texas A&M  6.59 53.11 7.02 44 Missouri  5.58 15.44 4.48 63 South Carolina  3.07 -38.64 0.13 76 Florida  -2.16 -24.23 -2.64 77 Mississippi  -4.20 -4.58 -3.03 82 Kentucky  -0.76 -76.11 -4.27 89 Arkansas  -6.29 -21.20 -5.24 101 Tennessee  -7.23 -83.28 -8.94 108 Vanderbilt  -10.11 -95.36 -11.46  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 11 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE just can't quit the Buckeyes.  Ohio State's blow out win over Michigan State vaulted them back into the top spot, 0.4 of a point ahead of Alabama.  Auburn leapt 7 spots to take 3rd and Oklahoma moved up 3 to take 4th.  This is a lot of movement at this time of year, an indication of the magnitude of the blowouts we saw this weekend.   WTF DUSHEE?   Speaking of movement, while they have moved up 10 spots in the last two weeks, DUSHEE still has undefeated Miami well down the rankings in 16th.  A look at Miami's week-to-week scores shows that while DUSHEE has been really impressed by the Canes the last two weeks, the first half of the season was a bit underwhelming.          Tol @ Duke @ FSU  GaTech  Syr @ UNC  VaTech  ND           33.38 25.13 -3.25 7.43 5.75 -6.22 37.75 55.89       269.00 56.63 -123.13 -92.86 126.75 -122.22 265.13 232.56       35.45 19.53 -8.21 0.40 10.05 -10.15 38.18 48.67   The four game stretch from Florida State to North Carolina, Miami was very mediocre, despite going 4-0.  They beat a bad Seminoles team by 4, getting outgained by 69, then beat a decent Georgia Tech team by 1 while getting outgained by 216, beat an average Syracuse team by 8, then beat a pretty bad North Carolina team by 5 while also getting outgained.    It is this 4-game stretch that has Miami so far back in the rankings, despite how dominant they've looked the last two weeks.   TCU Week-to-Week   The Frogs only fell one spot to 13th.     @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU   8.50 26.25 32.00   14.75 26.63 18.38 2.13 27.78 -1.22   25.13 178.50 145.00   -46.88 119.13 399.50 65.63 135.00 87.00   6.90 26.26 28.45   7.53 23.60 31.86 4.64 25.14 3.45   As we discussed last week, there seem to be two very discrete TCU teams this year, a slightly above average one and a really very good one.  We got the slightly above average team Saturday night.  Which, as we all know, made for a rough night.  And we've been the slightly above average team two of the last 3 weeks.   TCU's Next Opponent Week-to-Week: Technological   Fortunately, slightly above average is probably enough to beat our next opponent, Texas Tech.  Tech has been squarely average since Week 7.  The Matadors are coming off of a streak of mediocre performances, beating an awful Baylor team by two scores, but getting outgained by almost 200 yards in the process.        ASU @ Hou  OkSt @ Kan @ WVU  ISU @ OU  KSU # Bay     5.56 10.29 9.78 21.75 -5.50 -10.25 -5.67 -3.75 2.88     105.78 129.14 -55.00 120.50 199.50 -64.88 8.11 51.63 -269.63     8.90 13.20 3.82 20.41 6.12 -10.02 -3.38 0.03 -11.32   Week 11 Top Performances   53.68 Ohio State vs. Michigan State (+45 Point Margin, +329 Yardage Margin) 53.57 Auburn vs. Georgia (+23 PM, +258 YM) 48.67 Miami vs. Notre Dame (+33 PM, +113 YM)   Week 11 Bottom Performances   -52.00 San Jose State at Nevada (-45 PM, -139 YM) -49.07 New Mexico at Texas A&M (-41 PM, -418 YM) -40.87 Tennessee at Missouri (-33 PM, -374 YM)   Conference Rankings   B10 6.97 B12 6.07 ACC 6.06 SEC 5.85 P12 4.13 AAC -0.41 MWC -6.50 MAC -8.21 CUSA -8.27 SBC -9.47   Overall Rankings   Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  27.76 264.33 31.48 1 1.44 2 Alabama  29.43 233.05 31.06 -1 -0.74 3 Auburn  25.86 208.37 27.46 7 4.65 4 Oklahoma  22.35 220.59 25.73 3 0.74 5 Penn St.  28.06 135.85 25.37 -1 -2.40 6 Georgia  24.77 158.77 24.31 -3 -4.70 7 Clemson  21.66 193.84 23.96 -1 -1.59 8 Oklahoma St.  20.25 193.03 22.97 1 -1.24 9 Wisconsin  22.49 159.92 22.84 2 1.68 10 Notre Dame  22.80 139.00 22.02 -5 -5.48 11 UCF  22.48 140.74 21.90 -3 -2.69 12 Mississippi St.  18.33 138.69 19.03 3 0.93 13 TCU  17.24 123.11 17.54 -1 -2.56 14 Washington  18.98 97.16 17.42 -1 -2.56 15 Virginia Tech  16.83 116.40 16.93 -1 -1.38 16 Miami (FL)  19.48 76.48 16.74 2 2.62 17 USC  13.82 117.56 14.98 -1 -1.16 18 Georgia Tech  9.36 149.25 13.57 6 2.31 19 Washington St.  9.96 140.35 13.53 1 0.17 20 Michigan  10.05 111.68 12.18 -1 -1.84 21 South Florida  9.22 112.21 11.65 5 0.60 22 Iowa  16.47 7.85 11.36 -1 -1.94 23 LSU  7.36 123.46 10.96 2 -0.27 24 Iowa St.  13.88 33.97 10.92 -1 -0.56 25 Michigan St.  8.23 108.56 10.81 -8 -3.76 26 Boise St.  11.21 61.49 10.49 1 0.47 27 Stanford  12.95 33.63 10.29 7 2.32 28 Memphis  12.47 33.93 9.98 1 0.24 29 N.C. State  8.27 85.01 9.68 -7 -1.92 30 Wake Forest  9.73 60.59 9.46 2 1.28 31 San Diego St.  7.45 83.06 9.04 0 0.39 32 Florida Atlantic  12.54 13.37 9.01 5 1.32 33 Purdue  8.19 50.63 7.94 2 0.06 34 West Virginia  6.61 64.96 7.59 -1 -0.40 35 Arizona  7.60 44.72 7.26 1 -0.59 36 Toledo  7.32 47.55 7.22 -6 -2.34 37 Texas A&M  6.00 51.33 6.52 11 3.41 38 Texas  6.84 39.10 6.48 -10 -3.46 39 Navy  5.74 49.81 6.27 5 1.27 40 Boston Coll.  6.27 26.88 5.50 -1 -0.94 41 Ohio  6.53 17.28 5.20 19 5.11 42 Louisville  0.88 91.50 5.08 7 2.27 43 SMU  6.57 13.47 5.04 -5 -1.62 44 Northwestern  6.44 13.15 4.94 -2 -0.21 45 Northern Illinois  3.77 29.90 3.98 2 0.81 46 Missouri  4.35 19.90 3.88 10 2.60 47 Syracuse  0.65 66.01 3.67 -7 -1.89 48 Fresno St.  2.55 36.43 3.49 -2 -0.41 49 Texas Tech  2.79 25.02 3.09 -8 -2.17 50 Utah  1.56 40.48 3.03 1 1.29 51 Arizona St.  2.69 10.98 2.33 -6 -2.00 52 Marshall  2.21 14.95 2.21 5 1.16 53 Troy  1.78 12.58 1.81 8 1.99 54 Oregon  -0.03 33.35 1.62 -4 -0.84 55 Florida St.  0.55 22.18 1.46 -1 -0.05 56 Arkansas St.  3.11 -16.15 1.28 -13 -3.79 57 Houston  2.78 -12.51 1.24 1 0.57 58 Minnesota  2.74 -14.91 1.10 5 1.77 59 East. Michigan  1.36 1.26 0.97 -7 -0.64 60 Indiana  -1.60 36.46 0.73 -5 -0.72 61 Army  1.44 -4.96 0.72 1 1.07 62 Colorado St.  -0.17 13.54 0.55 -3 -0.01 63 UT-San Antonio -3.49 42.22 -0.26 4 1.41 64 UCLA  0.73 -16.17 -0.30 0 0.49 65 South Carolina  2.63 -46.28 -0.52 0 0.90 66 Nebraska  -2.19 7.63 -1.08 -13 -2.61 67 Appalachian State -2.09 -9.28 -1.85 -1 -0.23 68 California  -1.30 -25.48 -2.11 1 0.17 69 North Texas  -3.20 0.02 -2.13 4 0.65 70 Temple  -3.76 -1.93 -2.60 -2 -0.52 71 Cent. Michigan  -3.42 -10.63 -2.80 10 1.88 72 Duke  -2.64 -21.70 -2.82 3 0.25 73 Mississippi  -3.92 -5.41 -2.88 16 3.09 74 Colorado  -1.57 -40.51 -3.04 0 -0.07 75 Southern Miss  -6.83 29.51 -3.10 -3 -0.37 76 W. Michigan  -0.96 -53.79 -3.28 -5 -0.84 77 Kansas St.  1.18 -88.45 -3.56 -1 -0.25 78 Air Force  -5.08 -6.45 -3.71 1 0.11 79 Buffalo  -2.18 -52.52 -4.03 14 2.43 80 Cincinnati  -6.54 4.80 -4.12 -3 -0.80 81 Pittsburgh  -4.37 -27.15 -4.24 -11 -1.83 82 Virginia  -5.93 -10.41 -4.46 -4 -1.10 83 Louisiana Tech  -5.09 -25.85 -4.66 0 0.57 84 Kentucky  -0.75 -84.94 -4.67 8 1.67 85 Miami (OH)  -7.22 0.11 -4.81 2 0.79 86 UAB -4.91 -35.86 -5.03 9 2.67 87 Wyoming  0.24 -112.08 -5.34 -7 -1.08 88 Massachusetts -8.20 -4.41 -5.68 0 0.20 89 Arkansas  -7.83 -13.99 -5.91 -3 -0.52 90 Middle Tenn. St.  -7.56 -18.62 -5.96 0 0.18 91 Tulane  -4.29 -66.24 -6.11 -9 -0.92 92 Maryland  -5.41 -54.24 -6.27 4 1.54 93 Florida  -5.90 -49.94 -6.38 -2 -0.06 94 Florida Intl.  -7.16 -35.26 -6.50 -10 -1.27 95 Baylor  -9.32 -18.63 -7.13 2 0.75 96 New Mexico St.  -10.34 -5.54 -7.16 -2 -0.28 97 LA Monroe  -6.75 -59.94 -7.44 2 0.53 98 Georgia State -8.97 -35.58 -7.72 4 1.00 99 Utah St.  -5.28 -102.96 -8.57 2 -0.09 100 UNLV  -8.20 -71.12 -8.96 -2 -1.00 101 North Carolina  -8.50 -80.35 -9.61 3 -0.12 102 South Alabama -8.58 -80.83 -9.68 8 3.43 103 Tennessee  -6.89 -103.76 -9.69 -18 -4.37 104 Rutgers  -7.71 -113.12 -10.69 2 0.19 105 Nevada  -8.49 -108.75 -11.00 3 1.09 106 Vanderbilt  -8.78 -109.52 -11.23 -3 -1.90 107 West. Kentucky  -11.84 -76.77 -11.66 4 2.22 108 Tulsa  -8.07 -131.69 -11.85 -3 -1.27 109 Idaho  -12.14 -84.85 -12.26 3 1.73 110 New Mexico  -15.12 -55.43 -12.80 -10 -4.41 111 Illinois  -12.26 -101.07 -13.13 -4 -1.39 112 Coastal Carolina -13.60 -84.36 -13.21 -3 -0.10 113 BYU  -13.74 -104.63 -14.30 2 2.02 114 Akron  -8.83 -177.10 -14.58 -1 -0.30 115 Hawaii  -17.00 -76.31 -15.08 1 1.76 116 Oregon St.  -16.38 -92.14 -15.44 -2 -0.74 117 Old Dominion -14.80 -114.97 -15.51 1 2.28 118 Texas St. -18.99 -91.26 -17.14 -1 0.55 119 Connecticut  -15.33 -146.65 -17.42 4 3.50 120 Bowling Green  -16.04 -157.35 -18.41 0 0.89 121 East Carolina  -19.18 -124.19 -18.88 0 0.44 122 LA Lafayette  -18.24 -151.65 -19.60 -3 -1.33 123 Georgia Southern -20.58 -141.88 -20.68 -1 0.07 124 UNC-Charlotte -19.72 -153.77 -20.69 0 0.97 125 Rice  -24.75 -127.90 -22.78 0 1.41 126 Kansas  -24.81 -129.78 -22.91 0 2.59 127 Kent St.  -25.60 -174.95 -25.65 1 2.27 128 Ball St.  -30.01 -141.02 -26.93 -1 -1.04 129 UTEP  -27.53 -210.47 -28.68 0 -0.51 130 San Jose St.  -35.86 -248.99 -36.13 0 -1.32   By Conference   AAC 11 UCF  22.48 140.74 21.90 21 South Florida  9.22 112.21 11.65 28 Memphis  12.47 33.93 9.98 39 Navy  5.74 49.81 6.27 43 SMU  6.57 13.47 5.04 57 Houston  2.78 -12.51 1.24 70 Temple  -3.76 -1.93 -2.60 80 Cincinnati  -6.54 4.80 -4.12 91 Tulane  -4.29 -66.24 -6.11 108 Tulsa  -8.07 -131.69 -11.85 119 Connecticut  -15.33 -146.65 -17.42 121 East Carolina  -19.18 -124.19 -18.88 ACC 7 Clemson  21.66 193.84 23.96 15 Virginia Tech  16.83 116.40 16.93 16 Miami (FL)  19.48 76.48 16.74 18 Georgia Tech  9.36 149.25 13.57 29 N.C. State  8.27 85.01 9.68 30 Wake Forest  9.73 60.59 9.46 40 Boston Coll.  6.27 26.88 5.50 42 Louisville  0.88 91.50 5.08 47 Syracuse  0.65 66.01 3.67 55 Florida St.  0.55 22.18 1.46 72 Duke  -2.64 -21.70 -2.82 81 Pittsburgh  -4.37 -27.15 -4.24 82 Virginia  -5.93 -10.41 -4.46 101 North Carolina  -8.50 -80.35 -9.61 B1G 1 Ohio St.  27.76 264.33 31.48 5 Penn St.  28.06 135.85 25.37 9 Wisconsin  22.49 159.92 22.84 20 Michigan  10.05 111.68 12.18 22 Iowa  16.47 7.85 11.36 25 Michigan St.  8.23 108.56 10.81 33 Purdue  8.19 50.63 7.94 44 Northwestern  6.44 13.15 4.94 58 Minnesota  2.74 -14.91 1.10 60 Indiana  -1.60 36.46 0.73 66 Nebraska  -2.19 7.63 -1.08 92 Maryland  -5.41 -54.24 -6.27 104 Rutgers  -7.71 -113.12 -10.69 111 Illinois  -12.26 -101.07 -13.13 BXII-II 4 Oklahoma  22.35 220.59 25.73 8 Oklahoma St.  20.25 193.03 22.97 13 TCU  17.24 123.11 17.54 24 Iowa St.  13.88 33.97 10.92 34 West Virginia  6.61 64.96 7.59 38 Texas  6.84 39.10 6.48 49 Texas Tech  2.79 25.02 3.09 77 Kansas St.  1.18 -88.45 -3.56 95 Baylor  -9.32 -18.63 -7.13 126 Kansas  -24.81 -129.78 -22.91 CUSA 32 Florida Atlantic  12.54 13.37 9.01 52 Marshall  2.21 14.95 2.21 63 UT-San Antonio -3.49 42.22 -0.26 69 North Texas  -3.20 0.02 -2.13 75 Southern Miss  -6.83 29.51 -3.10 83 Louisiana Tech  -5.09 -25.85 -4.66 86 UAB -4.91 -35.86 -5.03 90 Middle Tenn. St.  -7.56 -18.62 -5.96 94 Florida Intl.  -7.16 -35.26 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky  -11.84 -76.77 -11.66 117 Old Dominion -14.80 -114.97 -15.51 124 UNC-Charlotte -19.72 -153.77 -20.69 125 Rice  -24.75 -127.90 -22.78 129 UTEP  -27.53 -210.47 -28.68 Indies 10 Notre Dame  22.80 139.00 22.02 61 Army  1.44 -4.96 0.72 88 Massachusetts -8.20 -4.41 -5.68 113 BYU  -13.74 -104.63 -14.30 MAC 36 Toledo  7.32 47.55 7.22 41 Ohio  6.53 17.28 5.20 45 Northern Illinois  3.77 29.90 3.98 59 East. Michigan  1.36 1.26 0.97 71 Cent. Michigan  -3.42 -10.63 -2.80 76 W. Michigan  -0.96 -53.79 -3.28 79 Buffalo  -2.18 -52.52 -4.03 85 Miami (OH)  -7.22 0.11 -4.81 114 Akron  -8.83 -177.10 -14.58 120 Bowling Green  -16.04 -157.35 -18.41 127 Kent St.  -25.60 -174.95 -25.65 128 Ball St.  -30.01 -141.02 -26.93 MWC 26 Boise St.  11.21 61.49 10.49 31 San Diego St.  7.45 83.06 9.04 48 Fresno St.  2.55 36.43 3.49 62 Colorado St.  -0.17 13.54 0.55 78 Air Force  -5.08 -6.45 -3.71 87 Wyoming  0.24 -112.08 -5.34 99 Utah St.  -5.28 -102.96 -8.57 100 UNLV  -8.20 -71.12 -8.96 105 Nevada  -8.49 -108.75 -11.00 110 New Mexico  -15.12 -55.43 -12.80 115 Hawaii  -17.00 -76.31 -15.08 130 San Jose St.  -35.86 -248.99 -36.13 P12 14 Washington  18.98 97.16 17.42 17 USC  13.82 117.56 14.98 19 Washington St.  9.96 140.35 13.53 27 Stanford  12.95 33.63 10.29 35 Arizona  7.60 44.72 7.26 50 Utah  1.56 40.48 3.03 51 Arizona St.  2.69 10.98 2.33 54 Oregon  -0.03 33.35 1.62 64 UCLA  0.73 -16.17 -0.30 68 California  -1.30 -25.48 -2.11 74 Colorado  -1.57 -40.51 -3.04 116 Oregon St.  -16.38 -92.14 -15.44 SBC 53 Troy  1.78 12.58 1.81 56 Arkansas St.  3.11 -16.15 1.28 67 Appalachian State -2.09 -9.28 -1.85 96 New Mexico St.  -10.34 -5.54 -7.16 97 LA Monroe  -6.75 -59.94 -7.44 98 Georgia State -8.97 -35.58 -7.72 102 South Alabama -8.58 -80.83 -9.68 109 Idaho  -12.14 -84.85 -12.26 112 Coastal Carolina -13.60 -84.36 -13.21 118 Texas St. -18.99 -91.26 -17.14 122 LA Lafayette  -18.24 -151.65 -19.60 123 Georgia Southern -20.58 -141.88 -20.68 SEC 2 Alabama  29.43 233.05 31.06 3 Auburn  25.86 208.37 27.46 6 Georgia  24.77 158.77 24.31 12 Mississippi St.  18.33 138.69 19.03 23 LSU  7.36 123.46 10.96 37 Texas A&M  6.00 51.33 6.52 46 Missouri  4.35 19.90 3.88 65 South Carolina  2.63 -46.28 -0.52 73 Mississippi  -3.92 -5.41 -2.88 84 Kentucky  -0.75 -84.94 -4.67 89 Arkansas  -7.83 -13.99 -5.91 93 Florida  -5.90 -49.94 -6.38 103 Tennessee  -6.89 -103.76 -9.69 106 Vanderbilt  -8.78 -109.52 -11.23    

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 10 DUSHEE (2017)

We have a new Number 1!!!   After maintaining the top spot since the first DUSHEE rankings came out after week 5, Iowa's shocking obliteration of Ohio State dropped the Buckeyes more than 7 points in DUSHEE score, the largest single team drop of the week.  Despite this precipitous fall, Ohio State only dropped to 2nd in the rankings, behind Alabama, but still a point ahead of Georgia who leapfrogged Penn State into 3rd.  We are now getting to the point of the season where enough games have been accumulated that it is just difficult statistically to move a lot at the top and bottom of the polls.  The Iowa game constitutes 1/9th of Ohio State's schedule at this point, and that share will shrink with each additional game played.   Frogs Week-to-Week   The Frogs stood pat at 12.  At this point in the season, it appears that there are two distinct TCU teams.  There is the very good TCU team that scores around four TDs better that the average FBS team.  That team showed up Saturday against Texas and is the team that beat SMU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Kansas.  Then there is the TCU team that is about one TD better than average.  That team beat Arkansas and West Virginia but lost to Iowa State.   As usual, the rows in the week-to-week tables are Opponent, Point Differential, Yardage Differential, and DUSHEE Score.     @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex   10.00 27.57 33.50   15.14 28.29 17.00 4.43 27.25   29.14 200.71 163.38   -61.86 133.43 388.57 72.00 141.00   8.09 28.16 30.29   7.08 25.36 30.27 6.46 25.04   Frogs Next Opponent Week-to-Week (Oklahoma)   Oklahoma's season had been a little less binary than TCU's.  They started red hot, averaging 40 points above average against UTEP, Ohio State, and Tulane.  Then the Sooners hit a 4-game mid season lull where they were average to slightly above average for Baylor, Iowa State, Texas, and Kansas State.  The last two weeks, the Sooners appear to be rolling again, close to early season form.   DUSHEE has Oklahoma as a 7.7 point favorite at home (pretty close to the Vegas spread), based on the typical performance for each team.  However, if the good TCU team shows up (27.8 DUSHEE Score in 5 games) and Oklahoma returns to its mid-season lull form (10.0 in 4 games), the Frogs beat the Sooners by two TDs.  If the Sooners continue to roll at their current level (37.0 in 5 games) and the barely above average TCU team puts on the road whites (7.2 in 3 games), then it will be an ugly day in Norman next Saturday evening.    UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex @ KSU  Ttech @ OkSt 27.25 41.00 40.00 -3.57   4.43 13.75 13.43 23.86 30.13 308.88 412.38 279.00 25.57   85.71 156.75 165.43 238.43 340.00 33.22 47.43 40.26 -1.14   7.13 16.80 17.01 27.52 36.65   Top 3 Performances of the Week 58.05 Iowa vs. Ohio State (+31 Point Margin, +115 Yardage Margin) 42.47 Miami vs. Virginia Tech (+18 PM, +131 YM) 36.65 Oklahoma at Oklahoma St. (+10 PM, +124 YM)   Bottom 3 Performances of the Week -46.58 San Jose St. vs. San Diego St. (-45 PM, -448 YM) -45.72 Kent St. vs. Bowling Green (-28 PM, -141 YM) -44.47 Kansas at Baylor (-29 PM, -166 YM)   Conference Rankings B10 7.56 B12 6.73 ACC 6.21 SEC 5.52 P12 4.42 AAC -0.31 MWC -6.13 CUSA -9.17 MAC -9.24 SBC -9.77   Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  30.55 234.71 31.80 1 -1.58 2 Ohio St.  26.79 250.01 30.04 -1 -7.06 3 Georgia  29.31 194.34 29.01 1 -0.94 4 Penn St.  29.74 163.22 27.78 -1 -3.60 5 Notre Dame  28.43 175.32 27.49 1 -1.75 6 Clemson  23.33 205.18 25.55 -1 -4.11 7 Oklahoma  21.14 223.57 24.99 1 0.20 8 UCF  24.86 164.49 24.59 1 -0.13 9 Oklahoma St.  20.77 212.79 24.22 -2 -1.90 10 Auburn  21.87 169.09 22.82 0 0.03 11 Wisconsin  21.24 143.61 21.16 2 0.63 12 TCU  20.40 133.30 20.09 0 -0.59 13 Washington  21.27 118.96 19.98 2 2.09 14 Virginia Tech  18.17 127.15 18.31 -3 -3.90 15 Mississippi St.  17.22 135.88 18.10 -1 -2.02 16 USC  14.38 134.49 16.14 1 1.95 17 Michigan St.  11.71 138.87 14.58 2 1.64 18 Miami (FL)  16.05 70.27 14.12 8 4.22 19 Michigan  10.47 144.63 14.02 2 1.55 20 Washington St.  9.05 150.40 13.36 0 0.48 21 Iowa  17.97 27.19 13.30 8 4.21 22 N.C. State  10.09 100.08 11.60 2 0.42 23 Iowa St.  15.11 28.93 11.48 -7 -2.89 24 Georgia Tech  7.04 134.74 11.26 -6 -2.11 25 LSU  6.72 138.72 11.24 2 1.87 26 South Florida  8.82 106.12 11.05 -4 -0.40 27 Boise St.  10.51 61.81 10.02 4 1.41 28 Texas  10.47 60.60 9.94 -5 -1.43 29 Memphis  12.37 30.66 9.74 -1 0.49 30 Toledo  9.06 72.10 9.56 4 1.49 31 San Diego St.  7.44 75.76 8.65 5 1.15 32 Wake Forest  8.85 46.84 8.18 -2 -0.53 33 West Virginia  7.01 68.05 7.99 5 1.33 34 Stanford  10.77 16.07 7.96 -2 -0.46 35 Purdue  9.00 38.82 7.89 2 0.66 36 Arizona  9.06 37.06 7.85 -11 -2.62 37 Florida Atlantic  10.04 20.53 7.69 4 1.41 38 SMU  7.99 27.34 6.66 5 1.95 39 Boston Coll.  7.23 33.27 6.44 -6 -1.64 40 Syracuse  1.99 86.94 5.56 0 -0.79 41 Texas Tech  3.24 63.55 5.26 -2 -1.28 42 Northwestern  6.14 21.68 5.15 4 0.98 43 Arkansas St.  7.49 1.60 5.07 2 0.59 44 Navy  5.03 33.89 5.00 -9 -3.04 45 Arizona St.  4.91 21.66 4.33 8 1.75 46 Fresno St.  3.53 31.70 3.90 -4 -2.19 47 Northern Illinois  2.81 26.76 3.17 9 2.23 48 Texas A&M  3.93 9.89 3.10 0 -0.95 49 Louisville  -1.04 71.80 2.81 1 -0.38 50 Oregon  0.76 40.00 2.46 -1 -1.35 51 Utah  1.38 16.79 1.74 16 2.93 52 East. Michigan  2.52 -1.54 1.61 10 2.26 53 Nebraska  0.78 20.78 1.53 -6 -2.55 54 Florida St.  0.37 25.85 1.51 -3 -1.31 55 Indiana  -1.05 44.05 1.44 -1 -1.05 56 Missouri  2.54 -8.67 1.27 9 2.43 57 Marshall  0.58 13.50 1.05 7 1.96 58 Houston  1.84 -11.59 0.66 -6 -2.03 59 Colorado St.  -0.68 20.74 0.56 -4 -1.17 60 Ohio  2.12 -27.08 0.09 12 3.33 61 Troy  -0.57 3.93 -0.19 -2 -0.03 62 Army  0.64 -15.98 -0.35 13 3.21 63 Minnesota  0.68 -23.15 -0.68 -6 -0.73 64 UCLA  0.21 -19.33 -0.80 -20 -5.36 65 South Carolina  3.19 -72.79 -1.42 15 2.70 66 Appalachian State -1.70 -9.86 -1.61 -8 -1.66 67 UT-San Antonio -5.07 35.22 -1.67 -4 -0.81 68 Temple  -3.31 2.70 -2.08 13 2.54 69 California  -1.61 -24.82 -2.28 -1 -0.71 70 Pittsburgh  -2.60 -13.91 -2.41 -4 -1.25 71 W. Michigan  -0.37 -44.90 -2.44 0 -0.37 72 Southern Miss  -5.98 25.82 -2.73 -12 -2.32 73 North Texas  -4.55 5.05 -2.79 5 1.15 74 Colorado  -1.05 -46.46 -2.96 -13 -2.38 75 Duke  -2.97 -22.50 -3.07 -1 0.47 76 Kansas St.  1.33 -86.17 -3.31 6 1.51 77 Cincinnati  -5.88 12.10 -3.33 -8 -1.31 78 Virginia  -4.98 -0.94 -3.36 6 1.95 79 Air Force  -4.77 -13.00 -3.81 -9 -1.77 80 Wyoming  0.09 -88.75 -4.26 7 1.82 81 Cent. Michigan  -5.79 -16.86 -4.68 7 1.58 82 Tulane  -2.89 -66.94 -5.19 -6 -1.54 83 Louisiana Tech  -4.50 -45.67 -5.23 -4 -1.12 84 Florida Intl.  -5.52 -31.83 -5.23 19 4.73 85 Tennessee  -3.17 -65.67 -5.32 1 0.40 86 Arkansas  -6.41 -22.81 -5.39 -3 -0.20 87 Miami (OH)  -8.32 -0.93 -5.59 4 1.61 88 Massachusetts -8.65 -2.28 -5.88 10 2.86 89 Mississippi  -7.00 -26.81 -5.97 3 1.45 90 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.11 -15.04 -6.14 7 2.52 91 Florida  -7.02 -33.77 -6.33 -14 -2.63 92 Kentucky  -2.78 -92.11 -6.34 -3 -0.01 93 Buffalo  -4.08 -76.86 -6.46 -8 -0.76 94 New Mexico St.  -10.18 -1.95 -6.88 2 1.44 95 UAB -7.62 -53.86 -7.71 6 1.72 96 Maryland  -5.18 -89.29 -7.81 -23 -4.45 97 Baylor  -8.46 -45.85 -7.87 -4 -0.19 98 UNLV  -6.37 -76.22 -7.96 -3 -0.06 99 LA Monroe  -7.26 -64.35 -7.98 8 3.27 100 New Mexico  -11.87 -9.95 -8.40 -6 -0.60 101 Utah St.  -5.21 -102.86 -8.48 -1 0.85 102 Georgia State -9.01 -55.68 -8.72 -12 -1.98 103 Vanderbilt  -6.43 -103.53 -9.33 6 3.05 104 North Carolina  -8.96 -72.15 -9.49 -2 0.06 105 Tulsa  -6.93 -122.23 -10.58 -6 -1.63 106 Rutgers  -7.08 -126.59 -10.88 -1 -0.27 107 Illinois  -10.69 -94.77 -11.74 -3 -1.20 108 Nevada  -10.58 -103.43 -12.09 -2 -1.05 109 Coastal Carolina -13.13 -89.47 -13.11 1 -0.72 110 South Alabama -12.35 -100.21 -13.11 2 -0.31 111 West. Kentucky  -13.46 -100.77 -13.88 -3 -1.85 112 Idaho  -13.71 -99.48 -13.99 4 3.95 113 Akron  -7.87 -185.30 -14.27 0 -0.33 114 Oregon St.  -16.66 -73.79 -14.70 -3 -2.01 115 BYU  -16.31 -111.74 -16.32 3 3.08 116 Hawaii  -19.42 -79.90 -16.84 -2 0.34 117 Texas St. -20.35 -84.60 -17.69 0 1.47 118 Old Dominion -17.98 -119.19 -17.80 -3 -0.29 119 LA Lafayette  -16.66 -147.22 -18.28 0 1.65 120 Bowling Green  -17.63 -155.03 -19.31 1 2.84 121 East Carolina  -20.12 -121.31 -19.33 -1 0.61 122 Georgia Southern -21.13 -136.73 -20.75 1 1.80 123 Connecticut  -18.35 -178.21 -20.91 5 4.38 124 UNC-Charlotte -20.15 -168.71 -21.66 -2 0.53 125 Rice  -25.96 -141.19 -24.19 2 0.94 126 Kansas  -27.04 -153.34 -25.49 -2 -2.40 127 Ball St.  -28.71 -138.59 -25.89 -1 -1.15 128 Kent St.  -27.73 -193.61 -27.92 -3 -3.38 129 UTEP  -26.76 -212.05 -28.17 0 -1.58 130 San Jose St.  -34.01 -248.96 -34.80 0 -0.15   By Conference AAC 8 UCF  24.86 164.49 24.59 26 South Florida  8.82 106.12 11.05 29 Memphis  12.37 30.66 9.74 38 SMU  7.99 27.34 6.66 44 Navy  5.03 33.89 5.00 58 Houston  1.84 -11.59 0.66 68 Temple  -3.31 2.70 -2.08 77 Cincinnati  -5.88 12.10 -3.33 82 Tulane  -2.89 -66.94 -5.19 105 Tulsa  -6.93 -122.23 -10.58 121 East Carolina  -20.12 -121.31 -19.33 123 Connecticut  -18.35 -178.21 -20.91 ACC 6 Clemson  23.33 205.18 25.55 14 Virginia Tech  18.17 127.15 18.31 18 Miami (FL)  16.05 70.27 14.12 22 N.C. State  10.09 100.08 11.60 24 Georgia Tech  7.04 134.74 11.26 32 Wake Forest  8.85 46.84 8.18 39 Boston Coll.  7.23 33.27 6.44 40 Syracuse  1.99 86.94 5.56 49 Louisville  -1.04 71.80 2.81 54 Florida St.  0.37 25.85 1.51 70 Pittsburgh  -2.60 -13.91 -2.41 75 Duke  -2.97 -22.50 -3.07 78 Virginia  -4.98 -0.94 -3.36 104 North Carolina  -8.96 -72.15 -9.49 B1G 2 Ohio St.  26.79 250.01 30.04 4 Penn St.  29.74 163.22 27.78 11 Wisconsin  21.24 143.61 21.16 17 Michigan St.  11.71 138.87 14.58 19 Michigan  10.47 144.63 14.02 21 Iowa  17.97 27.19 13.30 35 Purdue  9.00 38.82 7.89 42 Northwestern  6.14 21.68 5.15 53 Nebraska  0.78 20.78 1.53 55 Indiana  -1.05 44.05 1.44 63 Minnesota  0.68 -23.15 -0.68 96 Maryland  -5.18 -89.29 -7.81 106 Rutgers  -7.08 -126.59 -10.88 107 Illinois  -10.69 -94.77 -11.74 BXII-II 7 Oklahoma  21.14 223.57 24.99 9 Oklahoma St.  20.77 212.79 24.22 12 TCU  20.40 133.30 20.09 23 Iowa St.  15.11 28.93 11.48 28 Texas  10.47 60.60 9.94 33 West Virginia  7.01 68.05 7.99 41 Texas Tech  3.24 63.55 5.26 76 Kansas St.  1.33 -86.17 -3.31 97 Baylor  -8.46 -45.85 -7.87 126 Kansas  -27.04 -153.34 -25.49 CUSA 37 Florida Atlantic  10.04 20.53 7.69 57 Marshall  0.58 13.50 1.05 67 UT-San Antonio -5.07 35.22 -1.67 72 Southern Miss  -5.98 25.82 -2.73 73 North Texas  -4.55 5.05 -2.79 83 Louisiana Tech  -4.50 -45.67 -5.23 84 Florida Intl.  -5.52 -31.83 -5.23 90 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.11 -15.04 -6.14 95 UAB -7.62 -53.86 -7.71 111 West. Kentucky  -13.46 -100.77 -13.88 118 Old Dominion -17.98 -119.19 -17.80 124 UNC-Charlotte -20.15 -168.71 -21.66 125 Rice  -25.96 -141.19 -24.19 129 UTEP  -26.76 -212.05 -28.17 Indies 5 Notre Dame  28.43 175.32 27.49 62 Army  0.64 -15.98 -0.35 88 Massachusetts -8.65 -2.28 -5.88 115 BYU  -16.31 -111.74 -16.32 MAC 30 Toledo  9.06 72.10 9.56 47 Northern Illinois  2.81 26.76 3.17 52 East. Michigan  2.52 -1.54 1.61 60 Ohio  2.12 -27.08 0.09 71 W. Michigan  -0.37 -44.90 -2.44 81 Cent. Michigan  -5.79 -16.86 -4.68 87 Miami (OH)  -8.32 -0.93 -5.59 93 Buffalo  -4.08 -76.86 -6.46 113 Akron  -7.87 -185.30 -14.27 120 Bowling Green  -17.63 -155.03 -19.31 127 Ball St.  -28.71 -138.59 -25.89 128 Kent St.  -27.73 -193.61 -27.92 MWC 27 Boise St.  10.51 61.81 10.02 31 San Diego St.  7.44 75.76 8.65 46 Fresno St.  3.53 31.70 3.90 59 Colorado St.  -0.68 20.74 0.56 79 Air Force  -4.77 -13.00 -3.81 80 Wyoming  0.09 -88.75 -4.26 98 UNLV  -6.37 -76.22 -7.96 100 New Mexico  -11.87 -9.95 -8.40 101 Utah St.  -5.21 -102.86 -8.48 108 Nevada  -10.58 -103.43 -12.09 116 Hawaii  -19.42 -79.90 -16.84 130 San Jose St.  -34.01 -248.96 -34.80 P12 13 Washington  21.27 118.96 19.98 16 USC  14.38 134.49 16.14 20 Washington St.  9.05 150.40 13.36 34 Stanford  10.77 16.07 7.96 36 Arizona  9.06 37.06 7.85 45 Arizona St.  4.91 21.66 4.33 50 Oregon  0.76 40.00 2.46 51 Utah  1.38 16.79 1.74 64 UCLA  0.21 -19.33 -0.80 69 California  -1.61 -24.82 -2.28 74 Colorado  -1.05 -46.46 -2.96 114 Oregon St.  -16.66 -73.79 -14.70 SBC 43 Arkansas St.  7.49 1.60 5.07 61 Troy  -0.57 3.93 -0.19 66 Appalachian State -1.70 -9.86 -1.61 94 New Mexico St.  -10.18 -1.95 -6.88 99 LA Monroe  -7.26 -64.35 -7.98 102 Georgia State -9.01 -55.68 -8.72 109 Coastal Carolina -13.13 -89.47 -13.11 110 South Alabama -12.35 -100.21 -13.11 112 Idaho  -13.71 -99.48 -13.99 117 Texas St. -20.35 -84.60 -17.69 119 LA Lafayette  -16.66 -147.22 -18.28 122 Georgia Southern -21.13 -136.73 -20.75 SEC 1 Alabama  30.55 234.71 31.80 3 Georgia  29.31 194.34 29.01 10 Auburn  21.87 169.09 22.82 15 Mississippi St.  17.22 135.88 18.10 25 LSU  6.72 138.72 11.24 48 Texas A&M  3.93 9.89 3.10 56 Missouri  2.54 -8.67 1.27 65 South Carolina  3.19 -72.79 -1.42 85 Tennessee  -3.17 -65.67 -5.32 86 Arkansas  -6.41 -22.81 -5.39 89 Mississippi  -7.00 -26.81 -5.97 91 Florida  -7.02 -33.77 -6.33 92 Kentucky  -2.78 -92.11 -6.34 103 Vanderbilt  -6.43 -103.53 -9.33  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 9 DUSHEE (2017)

For any who actually read any of this, I apologize but work and home life have not allowed time for commentary.  Just posting the results ...   Frogs Week-to-Week   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU   8.00 30.00 37.86   15.83 28.50 17.50 7.00   -9.00 231.33 209.14   -84.17 145.67 400.50 104.33   4.90 31.21 35.37   6.48 26.06 31.07 9.72   Frogs Next Opponent Week-to-Week (Texas)  Mary  SJSU @ USC   @ ISU  KSU # OU  OkSt @ Bay -27.83 29.43 5.50   26.83 12.17 14.43 19.57 16.50 -199.67 271.57 -23.88   109.00 114.17 126.86 81.14 68.50 -28.23 32.78 2.51   23.17 13.64 15.77 16.98 14.32   Top 3 Performances 42.05 Ohio State vs. Penn State (1 Point Margin, 246 Yardage Margin) 36.99 Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (14 PM, 198 YM) 32.26 USC at Arizona State (31 PM, 247 YM)   Bottom 3 Performances -50.10 Coastal Carolina vs. Texas State (-20 PM, -324 YM) -48.82 Connecticut vs. Missouri (-40 PM, -229 YM) -48.29 San Jose State at BYU (-21 PM, -260 YM)   Conference Ratings B10 8.36 B12 7.49 ACC 6.85 SEC 5.26 P12 4.90 AAC -0.30 MWC -6.01 CUSA -9.68 MAC -9.96 SBC -10.56   Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  33.75893 301.2054 37.10206587 0 0.86 2 Alabama  31.48214 255.7202 33.38004488 0 -1.25 3 Penn St.  34.36071 174.6732 31.37163394 0 -0.67 4 Georgia  30.33333 200.5986 29.94303375 1 1.77 5 Clemson  26.59568 246.1777 29.659983 -1 1.06 6 Notre Dame  30.73289 180.5774 29.23919242 0 1.21 7 Oklahoma St.  22.73214 226.2619 26.11918987 0 -1.71 8 Oklahoma  21.21726 219.6726 24.78995897 0 -1.08 9 UCF  26.50556 145.4333 24.71792576 0 1.03 10 Auburn  21.92109 168.6946 22.78883026 3 1.59 11 Virginia Tech  21.80612 158.3614 22.21145141 1 0.75 12 TCU  20.67007 142.5442 20.68759706 -1 -2.09 13 Wisconsin  20.57738 140.5327 20.52833136 -3 -2.88 14 Mississippi St.  19.53741 146.4184 20.12023248 0 1.77 15 Washington  19.13946 105.7041 17.88195236 0 0.30 16 Iowa St.  17.53401 55.34354 14.37123545 8 1.99 17 USC  13.34127 109.3175 14.19159582 6 1.62 18 Georgia Tech  9.07877 150.8782 13.36392024 -1 -1.05 19 Michigan St.  9.494048 136.3185 12.93522236 0 -1.23 20 Washington St.  8.861607 143.808 12.87653317 2 0.24 21 Michigan  9.071429 132.6488 12.47564907 -1 -1.68 22 South Florida  9.952381 99.41667 11.4525539 3 -0.57 23 Texas  12.0744 68.46205 11.36720653 3 0.65 24 N.C. State  10.63265 84.60884 11.18849619 -6 -3.08 25 Arizona  10.90136 65.98299 10.46504424 8 1.82 26 Miami (FL)  12.21508 36.31984 9.903409804 -10 -6.65 27 LSU  5.363946 119.4728 9.365496831 7 1.11 28 Memphis  11.81905 28.32177 9.25180996 7 1.14 29 Iowa  14.25 -8.43452 9.091271324 3 0.39 30 Wake Forest  8.32381 65.25272 8.711288629 0 -0.60 31 Boise St.  8.910714 54.9256 8.602116173 18 3.76 32 Stanford  11.09003 21.12946 8.417266101 -11 -5.22 33 Boston Coll.  8.550265 49.06878 8.078001029 9 1.39 34 Toledo  7.939456 57.19031 8.064356152 13 2.84 35 Navy  8.620238 47.49167 8.048224559 2 0.50 36 San Diego St.  6.71131 62.50298 7.503038713 7 1.11 37 Purdue  8.425595 33.19643 7.225729565 -8 -2.27 38 West Virginia  6.346939 50.03741 6.656056122 3 -0.12 39 Texas Tech  4.557823 72.18027 6.536333299 -8 -2.69 40 Syracuse  3.604762 81.45578 6.350441193 -2 -0.63 41 Florida Atlantic  8.612245 11.03061 6.276029151 10 1.69 42 Fresno St.  5.054422 56.04762 6.085626659 -14 -4.06 43 SMU  5.279762 24.53452 4.708760011 1 -1.59 44 UCLA  5.235119 22.16964 4.564398316 2 -0.99 45 Arkansas St.  6.450794 3.716667 4.480635089 12 3.75 46 Northwestern  6.098214 2.083333 4.166432462 4 -0.53 47 Nebraska  2.528571 49.32024 4.075724209 5 0.07 48 Texas A&M  4.653741 19.59184 4.051895348 -9 -2.87 49 Oregon  2.348214 46.12798 3.800792262 4 1.06 50 Louisville  -0.74702 76.11682 3.190529669 -5 -2.53 51 Florida St.  0.895918 45.87585 2.820377214 -24 -7.86 52 Houston  2.636905 19.29592 2.692997614 2 0.22 53 Arizona St.  3.422619 6.14881 2.579711256 -17 -5.39 54 Indiana  0.228571 48.34762 2.495258719 -14 -4.35 55 Colorado St.  -0.1131 37.27381 1.730855092 -7 -3.48 56 Northern Illinois  0.514456 12.48129 0.947801604 11 1.89 57 Minnesota  1.294643 -16.8036 0.048810798 7 0.42 58 Appalachian State -0.66667 10.05442 0.042782883 7 0.88 59 Troy  -0.45442 3.07415 -0.153977596 -1 -0.68 60 Southern Miss  -3.54898 40.44762 -0.405934808 -5 -1.59 61 Colorado  0.910714 -24.5893 -0.584429591 14 2.23 62 East. Michigan  0.041667 -14 -0.650648366 10 1.74 63 UT-San Antonio -4.78571 48.09127 -0.860020852 0 -0.52 64 Marshall  -1.1 -3.66071 -0.910727924 -8 -1.79 65 Missouri  -0.17687 -21.432 -1.156486021 24 4.63 66 Pittsburgh  -1.19167 -7.57917 -1.16172336 -5 -1.09 67 Utah  -1.44728 -4.59949 -1.187739331 -8 -1.70 68 California  0.072173 -33.3296 -1.567004983 -8 -1.88 69 Cincinnati  -4.28299 17.27279 -2.018306533 2 0.20 70 Air Force  -3.45918 5.52381 -2.038444107 20 4.63 71 W. Michigan  0.272959 -46.3818 -2.065643464 3 0.46 72 Ohio  -1.39116 -47.6837 -3.238141263 9 0.61 73 Maryland  -0.08707 -68.1122 -3.35870186 -4 -1.54 74 Duke  -3.60045 -23.6744 -3.547535842 5 -0.20 75 Army  -1.91497 -47.1327 -3.560645709 2 -0.45 76 Tulane  -1.14507 -59.6432 -3.653628993 -14 -3.50 77 Florida  -3.7449 -24.7347 -3.695217424 10 0.96 78 North Texas  -5.69728 -2.94354 -3.940826851 -2 -1.04 79 Louisiana Tech  -3.61224 -35.0748 -4.107854809 -6 -1.58 80 South Carolina  0.770833 -95.6667 -4.122023092 -2 -0.90 81 Temple  -5.91837 -13.8068 -4.614642226 3 -0.48 82 Kansas St.  -0.61905 -90.9694 -4.820984907 -16 -3.96 83 Arkansas  -5.41156 -32.602 -5.187572381 -15 -3.58 84 Virginia  -7.04592 -12.8274 -5.318881097 -4 -1.97 85 Buffalo  -3.13988 -74.4554 -5.701286883 1 -1.25 86 Tennessee  -3.85306 -64.9707 -5.717125641 -3 -1.62 87 Wyoming  -1.47619 -105.265 -6.085179533 19 7.30 88 Cent. Michigan  -7.78571 -21.9821 -6.255709077 6 1.48 89 Kentucky  -2.20068 -100.367 -6.330822476 -4 -2.03 90 Georgia State -7.26587 -39.1151 -6.739393376 -2 -1.67 91 Miami (OH)  -9.52721 -17.6293 -7.205770012 0 -0.22 92 Mississippi  -8.86395 -31.2415 -7.423229056 0 -0.16 93 Baylor  -8.31973 -43.998 -7.678582816 -11 -3.59 94 New Mexico  -10.8401 -11.7857 -7.797881419 -24 -5.63 95 UNLV  -6.2415 -77.1395 -7.899099411 9 4.55 96 New Mexico St.  -11.4411 -14.4024 -8.325306079 -1 -0.13 97 Middle Tenn. St.  -10.953 -28.0167 -8.659644064 2 0.82 98 Massachusetts -11.9667 -15.75 -8.741007189 4 2.17 99 Tulsa  -5.6 -107.669 -8.950881636 -3 -0.15 100 Utah St.  -6.46429 -103.693 -9.334405882 -2 -0.11 101 UAB -10.8163 -45.7347 -9.427142353 8 5.08 102 North Carolina  -8.9037 -74.582 -9.549972885 -2 0.17 103 Florida Intl.  -9.57937 -73.8508 -9.964979753 5 4.39 104 Illinois  -9.86964 -81.7095 -10.53932456 1 2.68 105 Rutgers  -7.52381 -115.588 -10.61717419 -8 -1.59 106 Nevada  -9.30272 -99.9116 -11.04342959 -5 -0.39 107 LA Monroe  -10.5542 -86.9417 -11.24921823 -4 0.55 108 West. Kentucky  -11.6259 -88.3776 -12.03325554 -1 1.99 109 Vanderbilt  -9.44218 -125.551 -12.37886277 1 2.21 110 Coastal Carolina -13.8483 -65.0748 -12.3856614 -17 -5.08 111 Oregon St.  -15.8614 -43.7534 -12.69450956 3 4.46 112 South Alabama -12.0762 -98.0075 -12.80013927 0 2.37 113 Akron  -7.44345 -185.381 -13.94567906 -2 0.72 114 Hawaii  -20.1531 -77.2143 -17.17710201 -1 -0.49 115 Old Dominion -17.3019 -123.287 -17.5089666 0 0.30 116 Idaho  -17.5286 -128.876 -17.93092692 6 5.90 117 Texas St. -21.9367 -93.6034 -19.16041798 11 9.25 118 BYU  -18.8988 -140.321 -19.3990439 -1 1.68 119 LA Lafayette  -18.6014 -155.293 -19.92629293 -1 2.09 120 East Carolina  -19.132 -148.215 -19.93699908 -4 0.20 121 Bowling Green  -20.7823 -171.156 -22.14894806 -1 0.17 122 UNC-Charlotte -21.2823 -165.135 -22.19047244 -1 0.94 123 Georgia Southern -22.8746 -150.694 -22.55223908 2 1.93 124 Kansas  -24.7143 -136.595 -23.09546052 2 2.25 125 Kent St.  -24.3673 -171.259 -24.54391553 -1 -0.39 126 Ball St.  -27.2041 -136.269 -24.73950111 -3 -0.65 127 Rice  -26.1161 -159.286 -25.12957119 0 3.01 128 Connecticut  -23.3274 -201.071 -25.29530972 -9 -3.07 129 UTEP  -25.0625 -203.887 -26.58849094 0 2.28 130 San Jose St.  -34.5107 -240.254 -34.64962198 0 -2.14   By Conference AAC 9 UCF  26.51 145.43 24.72 22 South Florida  9.95 99.42 11.45 28 Memphis  11.82 28.32 9.25 35 Navy  8.62 47.49 8.05 43 SMU  5.28 24.53 4.71 52 Houston  2.64 19.30 2.69 69 Cincinnati  -4.28 17.27 -2.02 76 Tulane  -1.15 -59.64 -3.65 81 Temple  -5.92 -13.81 -4.61 99 Tulsa  -5.60 -107.67 -8.95 120 East Carolina  -19.13 -148.21 -19.94 128 Connecticut  -23.33 -201.07 -25.30 ACC 5 Clemson  26.60 246.18 29.66 11 Virginia Tech  21.81 158.36 22.21 18 Georgia Tech  9.08 150.88 13.36 24 N.C. State  10.63 84.61 11.19 26 Miami (FL)  12.22 36.32 9.90 30 Wake Forest  8.32 65.25 8.71 33 Boston Coll.  8.55 49.07 8.08 40 Syracuse  3.60 81.46 6.35 50 Louisville  -0.75 76.12 3.19 51 Florida St.  0.90 45.88 2.82 66 Pittsburgh  -1.19 -7.58 -1.16 74 Duke  -3.60 -23.67 -3.55 84 Virginia  -7.05 -12.83 -5.32 102 North Carolina  -8.90 -74.58 -9.55 B1G 1 Ohio St.  33.76 301.21 37.10 3 Penn St.  34.36 174.67 31.37 13 Wisconsin  20.58 140.53 20.53 19 Michigan St.  9.49 136.32 12.94 21 Michigan  9.07 132.65 12.48 29 Iowa  14.25 -8.43 9.09 37 Purdue  8.43 33.20 7.23 46 Northwestern  6.10 2.08 4.17 47 Nebraska  2.53 49.32 4.08 54 Indiana  0.23 48.35 2.50 57 Minnesota  1.29 -16.80 0.05 73 Maryland  -0.09 -68.11 -3.36 104 Illinois  -9.87 -81.71 -10.54 105 Rutgers  -7.52 -115.59 -10.62 BXII-II 7 Oklahoma St.  22.73 226.26 26.12 8 Oklahoma  21.22 219.67 24.79 12 TCU  20.67 142.54 20.69 16 Iowa St.  17.53 55.34 14.37 23 Texas  12.07 68.46 11.37 38 West Virginia  6.35 50.04 6.66 39 Texas Tech  4.56 72.18 6.54 82 Kansas St.  -0.62 -90.97 -4.82 93 Baylor  -8.32 -44.00 -7.68 124 Kansas  -24.71 -136.60 -23.10 CUSA 41 Florida Atlantic  8.61 11.03 6.28 60 Southern Miss  -3.55 40.45 -0.41 63 UT-San Antonio -4.79 48.09 -0.86 64 Marshall  -1.10 -3.66 -0.91 78 North Texas  -5.70 -2.94 -3.94 79 Louisiana Tech  -3.61 -35.07 -4.11 97 Middle Tenn. St.  -10.95 -28.02 -8.66 101 UAB -10.82 -45.73 -9.43 103 Florida Intl.  -9.58 -73.85 -9.96 108 West. Kentucky  -11.63 -88.38 -12.03 115 Old Dominion -17.30 -123.29 -17.51 122 UNC-Charlotte -21.28 -165.13 -22.19 127 Rice  -26.12 -159.29 -25.13 129 UTEP  -25.06 -203.89 -26.59 Indies 6 Notre Dame  30.73 180.58 29.24 75 Army  -1.91 -47.13 -3.56 98 Massachusetts -11.97 -15.75 -8.74 118 BYU  -18.90 -140.32 -19.40 MAC 34 Toledo  7.94 57.19 8.06 56 Northern Illinois  0.51 12.48 0.95 62 East. Michigan  0.04 -14.00 -0.65 71 W. Michigan  0.27 -46.38 -2.07 72 Ohio  -1.39 -47.68 -3.24 85 Buffalo  -3.14 -74.46 -5.70 88 Cent. Michigan  -7.79 -21.98 -6.26 91 Miami (OH)  -9.53 -17.63 -7.21 113 Akron  -7.44 -185.38 -13.95 121 Bowling Green  -20.78 -171.16 -22.15 125 Kent St.  -24.37 -171.26 -24.54 126 Ball St.  -27.20 -136.27 -24.74 MWC 31 Boise St.  8.91 54.93 8.60 36 San Diego St.  6.71 62.50 7.50 42 Fresno St.  5.05 56.05 6.09 55 Colorado St.  -0.11 37.27 1.73 70 Air Force  -3.46 5.52 -2.04 87 Wyoming  -1.48 -105.27 -6.09 94 New Mexico  -10.84 -11.79 -7.80 95 UNLV  -6.24 -77.14 -7.90 100 Utah St.  -6.46 -103.69 -9.33 106 Nevada  -9.30 -99.91 -11.04 114 Hawaii  -20.15 -77.21 -17.18 130 San Jose St.  -34.51 -240.25 -34.65 P12 15 Washington  19.14 105.70 17.88 17 USC  13.34 109.32 14.19 20 Washington St.  8.86 143.81 12.88 25 Arizona  10.90 65.98 10.47 32 Stanford  11.09 21.13 8.42 44 UCLA  5.24 22.17 4.56 49 Oregon  2.35 46.13 3.80 53 Arizona St.  3.42 6.15 2.58 61 Colorado  0.91 -24.59 -0.58 67 Utah  -1.45 -4.60 -1.19 68 California  0.07 -33.33 -1.57 111 Oregon St.  -15.86 -43.75 -12.69 SBC 45 Arkansas St.  6.45 3.72 4.48 58 Appalachian State -0.67 10.05 0.04 59 Troy  -0.45 3.07 -0.15 90 Georgia State -7.27 -39.12 -6.74 96 New Mexico St.  -11.44 -14.40 -8.33 107 LA Monroe  -10.55 -86.94 -11.25 110 Coastal Carolina -13.85 -65.07 -12.39 112 South Alabama -12.08 -98.01 -12.80 116 Idaho  -17.53 -128.88 -17.93 117 Texas St. -21.94 -93.60 -19.16 119 LA Lafayette  -18.60 -155.29 -19.93 123 Georgia Southern -22.87 -150.69 -22.55 SEC 2 Alabama  31.48 255.72 33.38 4 Georgia  30.33 200.60 29.94 10 Auburn  21.92 168.69 22.79 14 Mississippi St.  19.54 146.42 20.12 27 LSU  5.36 119.47 9.37 48 Texas A&M  4.65 19.59 4.05 65 Missouri  -0.18 -21.43 -1.16 77 Florida  -3.74 -24.73 -3.70 80 South Carolina  0.77 -95.67 -4.12 83 Arkansas  -5.41 -32.60 -5.19 86 Tennessee  -3.85 -64.97 -5.72 89 Kentucky  -2.20 -100.37 -6.33 92 Mississippi  -8.86 -31.24 -7.42 109 Vanderbilt  -9.44 -125.55 -12.38    

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 8 DUSHEE (2017)

Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  33.95 281.68 36.24 0 -2.69 2 Alabama  33.28 257.70 34.63 0 -1.78 3 Penn St.  34.19 191.62 32.04 0 -0.37 4 Clemson  26.75 222.88 28.60 0 -0.77 5 Georgia  28.16 194.58 28.17 2 1.57 6 Notre Dame  29.95 166.94 28.03 3 2.47 7 Oklahoma St.  24.21 242.10 27.83 -2 -0.16 8 Oklahoma  22.13 230.10 25.87 -2 -2.07 9 UCF  25.14 143.48 23.69 1 -0.54 10 Wisconsin  22.52 173.69 23.40 1 -0.59 11 TCU  23.16 151.96 22.78 -3 -3.22 12 Virginia Tech  21.65 145.61 21.46 6 5.14 13 Auburn  20.34 158.18 21.20 -1 2.00 14 Mississippi St.  16.89 146.91 18.35 7 3.76 15 Washington  19.71 92.06 17.58 0 -0.08 16 Miami (FL)  18.19 91.66 16.55 -2 -1.34 17 Georgia Tech  8.74 177.77 14.41 3 -0.99 18 N.C. State  13.08 114.76 14.26 4 -0.08 19 Michigan St.  11.86 129.49 14.16 -6 -4.33 20 Michigan  10.64 146.20 14.16 -3 -2.26 21 Stanford  16.90 49.09 13.64 -2 -2.27 22 Washington St.  9.71 127.63 12.63 9 1.19 23 USC  11.96 95.14 12.57 -7 -4.62 24 Iowa St.  15.40 43.78 12.38 0 -1.26 25 South Florida  10.51 104.02 12.03 3 -0.15 26 Texas  10.64 75.00 10.72 4 -0.87 27 Florida St.  9.03 96.52 10.68 -2 -2.90 28 Fresno St.  8.98 86.14 10.15 16 3.91 29 Purdue  10.03 58.14 9.50 4 -0.50 30 Wake Forest  9.54 61.25 9.32 8 1.11 31 Texas Tech  7.48 87.64 9.22 -8 -4.84 32 Iowa  14.09 -14.38 8.70 -5 -3.83 33 Arizona  8.19 65.87 8.64 -7 -4.14 34 LSU  4.34 110.92 8.25 15 2.95 35 Memphis  11.16 13.87 8.11 -1 -1.58 36 Arizona St.  8.86 42.82 7.97 3 0.75 37 Navy  8.07 44.98 7.55 17 4.98 38 Syracuse  4.23 86.24 6.98 5 0.55 39 Texas A&M  8.22 29.87 6.92 -2 -1.41 40 Indiana  5.55 65.16 6.84 -11 -5.32 41 West Virginia  7.22 40.68 6.78 -9 -3.36 42 Boston Coll.  6.89 43.41 6.69 23 7.39 43 San Diego St.  6.62 41.01 6.40 -8 -2.69 44 SMU  7.73 23.69 6.29 -8 -2.04 45 Louisville  0.80 107.54 5.73 -5 -0.92 46 UCLA  5.37 40.84 5.55 4 0.77 47 Toledo  5.84 27.50 5.22 15 5.13 48 Colorado St.  3.74 56.31 5.21 -6 -1.26 49 Boise St.  5.89 18.90 4.84 -3 -0.72 50 Northwestern  5.84 16.74 4.70 1 0.07 51 Florida Atlantic  6.36 7.04 4.58 22 7.47 52 Nebraska  2.83 43.77 4.00 4 1.92 53 Oregon  0.39 51.52 2.75 -5 -2.65 54 Houston  2.36 18.60 2.47 -2 -0.74 55 Southern Miss  -2.20 54.99 1.19 -2 -1.88 56 Marshall  1.99 -9.30 0.87 24 5.25 57 Arkansas St.  4.68 -49.42 0.73 32 7.92 58 Troy  -0.81 22.05 0.52 27 6.05 59 Utah  1.39 -8.57 0.51 -14 -5.56 60 California  1.77 -17.83 0.32 0 -0.58 61 Pittsburgh  -1.39 17.74 -0.07 9 1.58 62 Tulane  1.84 -28.47 -0.15 15 3.36 63 UT-San Antonio -5.13 63.77 -0.34 -8 -2.76 64 Minnesota  0.67 -16.95 -0.37 -5 -1.53 65 Appalachian State -1.76 6.98 -0.83 -4 -1.49 66 Kansas St.  2.98 -59.02 -0.86 18 4.37 67 Northern Illinois  -1.32 -1.27 -0.94 8 2.09 68 Arkansas  -2.75 4.67 -1.61 -4 -0.97 69 Maryland  0.64 -46.53 -1.82 -2 -1.08 70 New Mexico  -5.48 30.87 -2.17 17 4.21 71 Cincinnati  -4.07 10.33 -2.22 -5 -1.50 72 East. Michigan  -1.42 -29.86 -2.39 10 2.73 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.59 -16.61 -2.53 6 1.67 74 W. Michigan  -0.08 -51.19 -2.53 -16 -3.90 75 Colorado  -1.25 -41.02 -2.81 -12 -2.57 76 North Texas  -4.81 6.35 -2.90 -35 -9.45 77 Army  -1.00 -50.77 -3.12 -6 -1.46 78 South Carolina  1.09 -81.63 -3.22 -6 -0.71 79 Duke  -3.71 -18.02 -3.34 -22 -4.94 80 Virginia  -4.25 -10.81 -3.35 -33 -8.89 81 Ohio  -1.90 -53.55 -3.85 18 6.11 82 Baylor  -5.09 -14.32 -4.09 1 1.07 83 Tennessee  -2.27 -53.52 -4.10 -9 -1.14 84 Temple  -5.34 -11.92 -4.14 10 4.69 85 Kentucky  -0.84 -77.39 -4.30 -9 -1.08 86 Buffalo  -1.65 -69.36 -4.45 -5 0.42 87 Florida  -3.03 -54.66 -4.66 -18 -3.03 88 Georgia State -7.75 2.09 -5.07 -20 -4.26 89 Missouri  -5.81 -39.76 -5.79 21 9.98 90 Air Force  -8.51 -20.59 -6.66 -12 -2.83 91 Miami (OH)  -8.93 -21.36 -6.98 9 4.59 92 Mississippi  -7.33 -49.07 -7.26 -1 0.04 93 Coastal Carolina -10.24 -9.84 -7.30 3 1.79 94 Cent. Michigan  -9.30 -31.93 -7.74 20 9.56 95 New Mexico St.  -12.70 5.50 -8.20 0 0.72 96 Tulsa  -5.55 -105.77 -8.81 -10 -2.54 97 Rutgers  -5.56 -110.14 -9.03 0 0.48 98 Utah St.  -6.56 -100.54 -9.23 6 4.36 99 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.75 -34.04 -9.48 -1 0.47 100 North Carolina  -9.46 -70.60 -9.72 -12 -2.58 101 Nevada  -9.19 -93.78 -10.65 1 1.28 102 Massachusetts -14.89 -20.26 -10.91 11 6.29 103 LA Monroe  -10.50 -99.29 -11.80 -11 -4.23 104 UNLV  -10.78 -108.96 -12.45 -14 -5.20 105 Illinois  -11.49 -115.15 -13.22 0 0.54 106 Wyoming  -8.77 -156.09 -13.39 3 1.94 107 West. Kentucky  -13.23 -107.70 -14.02 -6 -2.20 108 Florida Intl.  -15.88 -78.04 -14.36 0 -0.07 109 UAB -16.63 -70.78 -14.51 -16 -6.03 110 Vanderbilt  -10.85 -152.39 -14.59 -4 -0.67 111 Akron  -8.60 -184.97 -14.66 -8 -1.87 112 South Alabama -13.48 -128.01 -15.17 4 3.18 113 Hawaii  -21.09 -54.38 -16.69 4 1.94 114 Oregon St.  -20.63 -70.43 -17.16 -3 -1.19 115 Old Dominion -17.06 -133.26 -17.81 11 9.62 116 East Carolina  -19.05 -154.12 -20.14 3 2.27 117 BYU  -19.66 -165.10 -21.08 1 -0.53 118 LA Lafayette  -20.21 -176.82 -22.01 -6 -5.53 119 Connecticut  -19.12 -196.38 -22.23 5 4.30 120 Bowling Green  -21.10 -170.94 -22.32 1 0.79 121 UNC-Charlotte -22.59 -167.09 -23.13 4 3.85 122 Idaho  -23.97 -162.55 -23.83 -15 -9.76 123 Ball St.  -26.54 -132.44 -24.09 -8 -5.79 124 Kent St.  -23.75 -172.17 -24.15 -4 -1.29 125 Georgia Southern -23.81 -178.23 -24.48 -3 -1.27 126 Kansas  -26.12 -164.34 -25.35 -3 0.61 127 Rice  -28.83 -184.68 -28.14 3 5.03 128 Texas St. -29.65 -179.03 -28.41 -1 -0.35 129 UTEP  -27.33 -220.41 -28.86 -1 0.67 130 San Jose St.  -33.53 -210.30 -32.51 -1 0.31   By Conference AAC 9 UCF  25.14 143.48 23.69 25 South Florida  10.51 104.02 12.03 35 Memphis  11.16 13.87 8.11 37 Navy  8.07 44.98 7.55 44 SMU  7.73 23.69 6.29 54 Houston  2.36 18.60 2.47 62 Tulane  1.84 -28.47 -0.15 71 Cincinnati  -4.07 10.33 -2.22 84 Temple  -5.34 -11.92 -4.14 96 Tulsa  -5.55 -105.77 -8.81 116 East Carolina  -19.05 -154.12 -20.14 119 Connecticut  -19.12 -196.38 -22.23 ACC 4 Clemson  26.75 222.88 28.60 12 Virginia Tech  21.65 145.61 21.46 16 Miami (FL)  18.19 91.66 16.55 17 Georgia Tech  8.74 177.77 14.41 18 N.C. State  13.08 114.76 14.26 27 Florida St.  9.03 96.52 10.68 30 Wake Forest  9.54 61.25 9.32 38 Syracuse  4.23 86.24 6.98 42 Boston Coll.  6.89 43.41 6.69 45 Louisville  0.80 107.54 5.73 61 Pittsburgh  -1.39 17.74 -0.07 79 Duke  -3.71 -18.02 -3.34 80 Virginia  -4.25 -10.81 -3.35 100 North Carolina  -9.46 -70.60 -9.72 B1G 1 Ohio St.  33.95 281.68 36.24 3 Penn St.  34.19 191.62 32.04 10 Wisconsin  22.52 173.69 23.40 19 Michigan St.  11.86 129.49 14.16 20 Michigan  10.64 146.20 14.16 29 Purdue  10.03 58.14 9.50 32 Iowa  14.09 -14.38 8.70 40 Indiana  5.55 65.16 6.84 50 Northwestern  5.84 16.74 4.70 52 Nebraska  2.83 43.77 4.00 64 Minnesota  0.67 -16.95 -0.37 69 Maryland  0.64 -46.53 -1.82 97 Rutgers  -5.56 -110.14 -9.03 105 Illinois  -11.49 -115.15 -13.22 BXII-II 7 Oklahoma St.  24.21 242.10 27.83 8 Oklahoma  22.13 230.10 25.87 11 TCU  23.16 151.96 22.78 24 Iowa St.  15.40 43.78 12.38 26 Texas  10.64 75.00 10.72 31 Texas Tech  7.48 87.64 9.22 41 West Virginia  7.22 40.68 6.78 66 Kansas St.  2.98 -59.02 -0.86 82 Baylor  -5.09 -14.32 -4.09 126 Kansas  -26.12 -164.34 -25.35 CUSA 51 Florida Atlantic  6.36 7.04 4.58 55 Southern Miss  -2.20 54.99 1.19 56 Marshall  1.99 -9.30 0.87 63 UT-San Antonio -5.13 63.77 -0.34 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.59 -16.61 -2.53 76 North Texas  -4.81 6.35 -2.90 99 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.75 -34.04 -9.48 107 West. Kentucky  -13.23 -107.70 -14.02 108 Florida Intl.  -15.88 -78.04 -14.36 109 UAB -16.63 -70.78 -14.51 115 Old Dominion -17.06 -133.26 -17.81 121 UNC-Charlotte -22.59 -167.09 -23.13 127 Rice  -28.83 -184.68 -28.14 129 UTEP  -27.33 -220.41 -28.86 Indies 6 Notre Dame  29.95 166.94 28.03 77 Army  -1.00 -50.77 -3.12 102 Massachusetts -14.89 -20.26 -10.91 117 BYU  -19.66 -165.10 -21.08 MAC 47 Toledo  5.84 27.50 5.22 67 Northern Illinois  -1.32 -1.27 -0.94 72 East. Michigan  -1.42 -29.86 -2.39 74 W. Michigan  -0.08 -51.19 -2.53 81 Ohio  -1.90 -53.55 -3.85 86 Buffalo  -1.65 -69.36 -4.45 91 Miami (OH)  -8.93 -21.36 -6.98 94 Cent. Michigan  -9.30 -31.93 -7.74 111 Akron  -8.60 -184.97 -14.66 120 Bowling Green  -21.10 -170.94 -22.32 123 Ball St.  -26.54 -132.44 -24.09 124 Kent St.  -23.75 -172.17 -24.15 MWC 28 Fresno St.  8.98 86.14 10.15 43 San Diego St.  6.62 41.01 6.40 48 Colorado St.  3.74 56.31 5.21 49 Boise St.  5.89 18.90 4.84 70 New Mexico  -5.48 30.87 -2.17 90 Air Force  -8.51 -20.59 -6.66 98 Utah St.  -6.56 -100.54 -9.23 101 Nevada  -9.19 -93.78 -10.65 104 UNLV  -10.78 -108.96 -12.45 106 Wyoming  -8.77 -156.09 -13.39 113 Hawaii  -21.09 -54.38 -16.69 130 San Jose St.  -33.53 -210.30 -32.51 P12 15 Washington  19.71 92.06 17.58 21 Stanford  16.90 49.09 13.64 22 Washington St.  9.71 127.63 12.63 23 USC  11.96 95.14 12.57 33 Arizona  8.19 65.87 8.64 36 Arizona St.  8.86 42.82 7.97 46 UCLA  5.37 40.84 5.55 53 Oregon  0.39 51.52 2.75 59 Utah  1.39 -8.57 0.51 60 California  1.77 -17.83 0.32 75 Colorado  -1.25 -41.02 -2.81 114 Oregon St.  -20.63 -70.43 -17.16 SBC 57 Arkansas St.  4.68 -49.42 0.73 58 Troy  -0.81 22.05 0.52 65 Appalachian State -1.76 6.98 -0.83 88 Georgia State -7.75 2.09 -5.07 93 Coastal Carolina -10.24 -9.84 -7.30 95 New Mexico St.  -12.70 5.50 -8.20 103 LA Monroe  -10.50 -99.29 -11.80 112 South Alabama -13.48 -128.01 -15.17 118 LA Lafayette  -20.21 -176.82 -22.01 122 Idaho  -23.97 -162.55 -23.83 125 Georgia Southern -23.81 -178.23 -24.48 128 Texas St. -29.65 -179.03 -28.41 SEC 2 Alabama  33.28 257.70 34.63 5 Georgia  28.16 194.58 28.17 13 Auburn  20.34 158.18 21.20 14 Mississippi St.  16.89 146.91 18.35 34 LSU  4.34 110.92 8.25 39 Texas A&M  8.22 29.87 6.92 68 Arkansas  -2.75 4.67 -1.61 78 South Carolina  1.09 -81.63 -3.22 83 Tennessee  -2.27 -53.52 -4.10 85 Kentucky  -0.84 -77.39 -4.30 87 Florida  -3.03 -54.66 -4.66 89 Missouri  -5.81 -39.76 -5.79 92 Mississippi  -7.33 -49.07 -7.26 110 Vanderbilt  -10.85 -152.39 -14.59        

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 7 DUSHEE (2017)

DUSHEE still loves it some Ohio State.  The Buckeyes remain firmly in first place, despite their loss to Oklahoma.  In fact, OSU has had a top 3 DUSHEE score each of the last 5 weeks.  Here are their week-to-week totals (rows are opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score.)   @ Ind  OU  Army  UNLV @ Rut  Mary @ Neb 31.50 4.40 41.40 38.25 51.50 41.25 43.17 165.75 82.60 376.80 403.75 363.25 441.25 262.33 29.29 7.06 46.45 45.70 52.50 49.57 41.90   Ohio State's score against Oklahoma was pretty low, relatively speaking (although still 7-points better than an Oklahoma's average opponent).  But their scores against their last 5 opponents have been so garish that the OU loss is overwhelmed by the statistics.  OU was just one out of 7 games.  Given, Ohio State's schedule strength isn't all that great (45th), but even in the extra-crispy DUSHEE that puts greater emphasis on schedule strength (but diminishes the significance of statistical outliers, which the OU game is emerging as), Ohio State is ranked first.   Clemson only dropped a spot after losing to Syracuse, but did lose almost 7 points on their DUSHEE score; they had a large enough cushion over the rest of the pack that they didn't lose that much ground.  And keep in mind as we progress through the season, each game played reduces the contribution of any one particular game to the DUSHEE score.  A loss in week 5 is going to hurt a team more than a loss in week 12.   The Frogs didn't move in rankings, remaining at 8th.  UCF fell below them, but the Frogs were vaulted by ... Oklahoma State.  Yes, I know, the Frogs beat them.  And going based on point differential alone, the Frogs are ranked 4th, well ahead of both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.  And the Frogs are 6th in the extra-crispy DUSHEE.  But in the original formulation, the Frogs are hurt a little by their yardage differential.   Below are the week-to-week numbers for the Frogs, Cowboys, and Sooners.  On average, both Oklahoma schools end up slightly above the Frogs.   TCU   @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU   9.25 33.25 45.00   22.50 32.00   43.00 239.00 254.00   -45.50 216.25   8.32 34.12 42.70   12.72 32.15 OkSt  Tulsa @ USA @ Pitt  TCU @ Ttech    Bay 35.33 28.75 32.80 4.00 18.25   32.50 104.50 221.25 256.20 114.75 354.75   284.75 28.78 30.23 34.68 8.41 29.91   35.91 OU  UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex 27.33 54.67 47.75 -11.25   7.75 16.80 311.00 481.33 338.25 -32.75   142.50 203.80 33.78 60.52 48.75 -9.14   12.29 21.39   Conference Rankings B10 10.63 B12 9.50 ACC 8.99 P12 6.93 SEC 4.46 AAC -0.67 MWC -6.87 CUSA -11.51 SBC -11.55 MAC -11.71   Strength of Schedule Mary 16.10545 FSU 15.69002 Ind 14.01613 Ark 11.86324 Bay 10.93841 Pitt 10.56787 Mizz 10.01387 BC 9.395117 OreSt 8.946779 ASU 8.864265 TCU 8.115209   Top 3 Week 7 Performances 49.09 Stanford vs. Oregon (49-7 point margin, 507-309 yardage margin) 45.10 Cal vs. Washington State (37-3 PM, 365-337 YM) 41.90 Ohio State @ Nebraska (56-14 PM, 633-393 YM)   Bottom 3 Week 7 Performances -40.46 Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss (35-57 PM, 417-603 YM) -39.61 New Mexico @ Fresno (0-38 PM, 322-526 YM) -38.16 UNC-Charlotte @ W. Kentucky (14-45 PM, 309-627 YM)   Overall Rankings Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  35.92 299.39 38.92 0 -1.84 2 Alabama  35.12 259.86 36.41 0 -0.15 3 Penn St.  35.89 169.69 32.41 1 -0.31 4 Clemson  26.84 229.44 29.37 -1 -6.79 5 Oklahoma St.  25.27 222.70 27.99 4 2.19 6 Oklahoma  23.84 240.69 27.93 -1 -3.40 7 Georgia  25.93 186.32 26.60 -1 -1.90 8 TCU  28.40 141.35 26.00 0 -0.94 9 Notre Dame  27.34 146.55 25.56 1 0.11 10 UCF  25.74 141.33 24.23 -3 -3.09 11 Wisconsin  23.09 171.96 24.00 0 -1.13 12 Auburn  18.13 142.20 19.20 0 -2.94 13 Michigan St.  15.20 167.00 18.49 3 -1.08 14 Miami (FL)  20.28 87.34 17.89 3 -1.30 15 Washington  19.22 96.94 17.66 3 -0.98 16 USC  16.40 124.96 17.18 3 0.64 17 Michigan  12.00 168.33 16.42 -3 -4.07 18 Virginia Tech  14.41 134.32 16.32 -3 -3.29 19 Stanford  19.11 63.31 15.90 9 3.12 20 Georgia Tech  8.30 197.18 15.40 7 2.11 21 Mississippi St.  11.13 143.49 14.60 0 -1.51 22 N.C. State  12.75 116.82 14.35 1 -0.51 23 Texas Tech  11.51 127.75 14.06 -3 -2.47 24 Iowa St.  16.46 53.35 13.64 0 -1.09 25 Florida St.  12.62 103.17 13.58 -3 -1.79 26 Arizona  12.10 94.38 12.79 0 -0.59 27 Iowa  19.03 -3.16 12.53 9 1.83 28 South Florida  10.22 107.19 12.17 6 1.38 29 Indiana  11.14 94.81 12.17 2 0.15 30 Texas  11.03 84.66 11.58 8 1.71 31 Washington St.  7.53 128.32 11.44 -18 -10.02 32 West Virginia  9.70 73.39 10.14 1 -0.91 33 Purdue  12.48 33.42 9.99 -4 -2.67 34 Memphis  12.54 26.57 9.69 5 0.29 35 San Diego St.  10.33 43.95 9.09 0 -1.67 36 SMU  10.51 26.48 8.33 11 1.80 37 Texas A&M  9.64 38.12 8.33 -7 -4.09 38 Wake Forest  9.88 32.35 8.21 4 0.17 39 Arizona St.  7.61 43.09 7.23 15 3.33 40 Louisville  1.88 107.79 6.65 -8 -4.64 41 North Texas  2.04 103.75 6.55 19 5.28 42 Colorado St.  4.60 68.20 6.48 -1 -2.02 43 Syracuse  2.11 100.43 6.43 16 4.95 44 Fresno St.  4.54 64.31 6.24 31 8.52 45 Utah  7.82 17.07 6.07 10 2.51 46 Boise St.  6.21 28.38 5.56 -2 -1.78 47 Virginia  3.85 59.54 5.54 -1 -1.27 48 Oregon  2.88 69.46 5.39 -23 -8.71 49 LSU  1.93 80.27 5.30 18 5.82 50 UCLA  4.80 31.72 4.78 -5 -2.15 51 Northwestern  4.81 28.49 4.63 0 -0.75 52 Houston  3.71 14.64 3.21 -15 -6.98 53 Southern Miss  -0.04 61.82 3.07 -5 -3.44 54 Navy  3.76 1.23 2.57 2 -0.14 55 UT-San Antonio -2.93 87.25 2.41 -5 -3.24 56 Nebraska  0.55 34.19 2.08 2 -0.14 57 Duke  0.41 26.44 1.59 -14 -5.90 58 W. Michigan  3.74 -22.44 1.37 -1 -0.85 59 Minnesota  2.81 -14.23 1.16 5 1.23 60 California  2.62 -16.98 0.90 28 7.62 61 Appalachian State 0.56 5.71 0.66 0 0.21 62 Toledo  1.24 -14.83 0.09 15 3.66 63 Colorado  1.65 -26.76 -0.24 -23 -9.56 64 Arkansas  -2.14 15.68 -0.64 6 0.84 65 Boston Coll.  -0.32 -9.78 -0.70 1 -0.23 66 Cincinnati  -3.18 27.95 -0.72 8 1.38 67 Maryland  2.60 -49.39 -0.73 -18 -6.43 68 Georgia State -3.79 34.30 -0.81 13 3.79 69 Florida  0.11 -33.93 -1.62 10 2.13 70 Pittsburgh  -2.70 2.97 -1.65 -2 -0.94 71 Army  -0.17 -30.84 -1.66 5 0.86 72 South Carolina  1.70 -72.84 -2.51 -7 -2.20 73 Florida Atlantic  1.49 -77.71 -2.89 -1 -1.22 74 Tennessee  -3.05 -18.45 -2.95 -1 -0.94 75 Northern Illinois  -3.69 -11.53 -3.03 3 0.65 76 Kentucky  2.72 -100.60 -3.22 4 1.31 77 Tulane  -1.10 -55.46 -3.51 -24 -7.56 78 Air Force  -4.99 -10.08 -3.83 -15 -3.77 79 Louisiana Tech  -4.82 -19.78 -4.20 18 6.13 80 Marshall  -3.13 -45.81 -4.38 9 3.12 81 Buffalo  -0.67 -88.56 -4.87 9 2.70 82 East. Michigan  -3.86 -51.03 -5.12 13 3.85 83 Baylor  -6.46 -16.90 -5.15 -31 -10.03 84 Kansas St.  -0.71 -95.25 -5.24 -22 -5.63 85 Troy  -6.36 -25.62 -5.52 -14 -3.97 86 Tulsa  -1.84 -100.81 -6.27 14 6.26 87 New Mexico  -9.13 -5.69 -6.37 -18 -4.93 88 North Carolina  -5.96 -63.20 -7.13 3 0.62 89 Arkansas St.  -2.73 -107.38 -7.19 19 10.51 90 UNLV  -4.86 -80.14 -7.25 -7 -1.26 91 Mississippi  -7.60 -44.64 -7.30 10 5.55 92 LA Monroe  -6.53 -64.14 -7.56 -8 -1.10 93 UAB -12.30 -5.57 -8.48 3 1.29 94 Temple  -9.16 -54.39 -8.83 -9 -2.23 95 New Mexico St.  -13.98 8.03 -8.92 -8 -2.23 96 Coastal Carolina -13.52 -1.62 -9.09 -14 -3.54 97 Rutgers  -8.33 -78.97 -9.51 -11 -2.86 98 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.83 -41.30 -9.95 1 2.14 99 Ohio  -7.49 -99.35 -9.96 -5 -1.68 100 Miami (OH)  -14.23 -41.73 -11.58 -8 -3.80 101 West. Kentucky  -11.60 -81.82 -11.83 13 7.91 102 Nevada  -11.38 -86.86 -11.93 11 7.32 103 Akron  -5.80 -178.48 -12.79 1 3.54 104 Utah St.  -10.81 -127.46 -13.58 -2 1.38 105 Illinois  -12.10 -113.85 -13.76 -7 -2.48 106 Vanderbilt  -10.03 -144.68 -13.93 -13 -5.94 107 Idaho  -14.02 -94.44 -14.07 8 7.96 108 Florida Intl.  -15.76 -75.56 -14.29 8 7.89 109 Wyoming  -9.96 -173.72 -15.33 -4 1.15 110 Missouri  -13.51 -135.28 -15.78 -7 -0.56 111 Oregon St.  -19.46 -59.89 -15.97 -4 1.33 112 LA Lafayette  -14.80 -132.24 -16.48 -1 2.15 113 Massachusetts -20.98 -64.28 -17.20 -1 1.64 114 Cent. Michigan  -19.37 -87.81 -17.30 -5 0.47 115 Ball St.  -20.39 -94.12 -18.30 2 4.05 116 South Alabama -17.35 -135.48 -18.34 9 11.12 117 Hawaii  -23.18 -63.53 -18.63 -11 -2.08 118 BYU  -17.44 -178.33 -20.55 -8 -2.47 119 East Carolina  -22.40 -149.55 -22.41 0 4.34 120 Kent St.  -22.81 -153.01 -22.86 1 4.87 121 Bowling Green  -21.31 -177.98 -23.11 -1 3.79 122 Georgia Southern -22.73 -161.24 -23.22 1 5.90 123 Kansas  -29.14 -130.54 -25.96 -5 -2.86 124 Connecticut  -24.02 -210.19 -26.53 3 2.97 125 UNC-Charlotte -26.17 -190.62 -26.98 1 2.52 126 Old Dominion -25.17 -212.90 -27.43 -4 1.41 127 Texas St. -28.58 -180.19 -28.07 -3 1.07 128 UTEP  -27.81 -219.82 -29.53 0 3.13 129 San Jose St.  -33.46 -210.16 -32.82 1 5.50 130 Rice  -33.64 -214.73 -33.17 -1 2.61   By Conference AAC 10 UCF  25.74 141.33 24.23 28 South Florida  10.22 107.19 12.17 34 Memphis  12.54 26.57 9.69 36 SMU  10.51 26.48 8.33 52 Houston  3.71 14.64 3.21 54 Navy  3.76 1.23 2.57 66 Cincinnati  -3.18 27.95 -0.72 77 Tulane  -1.10 -55.46 -3.51 86 Tulsa  -1.84 -100.81 -6.27 94 Temple  -9.16 -54.39 -8.83 119 East Carolina  -22.40 -149.55 -22.41 124 Connecticut  -24.02 -210.19 -26.53 ACC 4 Clemson  26.84 229.44 29.37 14 Miami (FL)  20.28 87.34 17.89 18 Virginia Tech  14.41 134.32 16.32 20 Georgia Tech  8.30 197.18 15.40 22 N.C. State  12.75 116.82 14.35 25 Florida St.  12.62 103.17 13.58 38 Wake Forest  9.88 32.35 8.21 40 Louisville  1.88 107.79 6.65 43 Syracuse  2.11 100.43 6.43 47 Virginia  3.85 59.54 5.54 57 Duke  0.41 26.44 1.59 65 Boston Coll.  -0.32 -9.78 -0.70 70 Pittsburgh  -2.70 2.97 -1.65 88 North Carolina  -5.96 -63.20 -7.13 B1G 1 Ohio St.  35.92 299.39 38.92 3 Penn St.  35.89 169.69 32.41 11 Wisconsin  23.09 171.96 24.00 13 Michigan St.  15.20 167.00 18.49 17 Michigan  12.00 168.33 16.42 27 Iowa  19.03 -3.16 12.53 29 Indiana  11.14 94.81 12.17 33 Purdue  12.48 33.42 9.99 51 Northwestern  4.81 28.49 4.63 56 Nebraska  0.55 34.19 2.08 59 Minnesota  2.81 -14.23 1.16 67 Maryland  2.60 -49.39 -0.73 97 Rutgers  -8.33 -78.97 -9.51 105 Illinois  -12.10 -113.85 -13.76 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma St.  25.27 222.70 27.99 6 Oklahoma  23.84 240.69 27.93 8 TCU  28.40 141.35 26.00 23 Texas Tech  11.51 127.75 14.06 24 Iowa St.  16.46 53.35 13.64 30 Texas  11.03 84.66 11.58 32 West Virginia  9.70 73.39 10.14 83 Baylor  -6.46 -16.90 -5.15 84 Kansas St.  -0.71 -95.25 -5.24 123 Kansas  -29.14 -130.54 -25.96 CUSA 41 North Texas  2.04 103.75 6.55 53 Southern Miss  -0.04 61.82 3.07 55 UT-San Antonio -2.93 87.25 2.41 73 Florida Atlantic  1.49 -77.71 -2.89 79 Louisiana Tech  -4.82 -19.78 -4.20 80 Marshall  -3.13 -45.81 -4.38 93 UAB -12.30 -5.57 -8.48 98 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.83 -41.30 -9.95 101 West. Kentucky  -11.60 -81.82 -11.83 108 Florida Intl.  -15.76 -75.56 -14.29 125 UNC-Charlotte -26.17 -190.62 -26.98 126 Old Dominion -25.17 -212.90 -27.43 128 UTEP  -27.81 -219.82 -29.53 130 Rice  -33.64 -214.73 -33.17 Indies 9 Notre Dame  27.34 146.55 25.56 71 Army  -0.17 -30.84 -1.66 113 Massachusetts -20.98 -64.28 -17.20 118 BYU  -17.44 -178.33 -20.55 MAC 58 W. Michigan  3.74 -22.44 1.37 62 Toledo  1.24 -14.83 0.09 75 Northern Illinois  -3.69 -11.53 -3.03 81 Buffalo  -0.67 -88.56 -4.87 82 East. Michigan  -3.86 -51.03 -5.12 99 Ohio  -7.49 -99.35 -9.96 100 Miami (OH)  -14.23 -41.73 -11.58 103 Akron  -5.80 -178.48 -12.79 114 Cent. Michigan  -19.37 -87.81 -17.30 115 Ball St.  -20.39 -94.12 -18.30 120 Kent St.  -22.81 -153.01 -22.86 121 Bowling Green  -21.31 -177.98 -23.11 MWC 35 San Diego St.  10.33 43.95 9.09 42 Colorado St.  4.60 68.20 6.48 44 Fresno St.  4.54 64.31 6.24 46 Boise St.  6.21 28.38 5.56 78 Air Force  -4.99 -10.08 -3.83 87 New Mexico  -9.13 -5.69 -6.37 90 UNLV  -4.86 -80.14 -7.25 102 Nevada  -11.38 -86.86 -11.93 104 Utah St.  -10.81 -127.46 -13.58 109 Wyoming  -9.96 -173.72 -15.33 117 Hawaii  -23.18 -63.53 -18.63 129 San Jose St.  -33.46 -210.16 -32.82 P12 15 Washington  19.22 96.94 17.66 16 USC  16.40 124.96 17.18 19 Stanford  19.11 63.31 15.90 26 Arizona  12.10 94.38 12.79 31 Washington St.  7.53 128.32 11.44 39 Arizona St.  7.61 43.09 7.23 45 Utah  7.82 17.07 6.07 48 Oregon  2.88 69.46 5.39 50 UCLA  4.80 31.72 4.78 60 California  2.62 -16.98 0.90 63 Colorado  1.65 -26.76 -0.24 111 Oregon St.  -19.46 -59.89 -15.97 SBC 61 Appalachian State 0.56 5.71 0.66 68 Georgia State -3.79 34.30 -0.81 85 Troy  -6.36 -25.62 -5.52 89 Arkansas St.  -2.73 -107.38 -7.19 92 LA Monroe  -6.53 -64.14 -7.56 95 New Mexico St.  -13.98 8.03 -8.92 96 Coastal Carolina -13.52 -1.62 -9.09 107 Idaho  -14.02 -94.44 -14.07 112 LA Lafayette  -14.80 -132.24 -16.48 116 South Alabama -17.35 -135.48 -18.34 122 Georgia Southern -22.73 -161.24 -23.22 127 Texas St. -28.58 -180.19 -28.07 SEC 2 Alabama  35.12 259.86 36.41 7 Georgia  25.93 186.32 26.60 12 Auburn  18.13 142.20 19.20 21 Mississippi St.  11.13 143.49 14.60 37 Texas A&M  9.64 38.12 8.33 49 LSU  1.93 80.27 5.30 64 Arkansas  -2.14 15.68 -0.64 69 Florida  0.11 -33.93 -1.62 72 South Carolina  1.70 -72.84 -2.51 74 Tennessee  -3.05 -18.45 -2.95 76 Kentucky  2.72 -100.60 -3.22 91 Mississippi  -7.60 -44.64 -7.30 106 Vanderbilt  -10.03 -144.68 -13.93 110 Missouri  -13.51 -135.28 -15.78    

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

Week 6 DUSHEE (2017 Season)

As the weeks progress, things in DUSHEE tend to settle out.  Extremes begin to regress to the mean.  Of the top 15 teams, 12 saw their DUSHEE score drop this week; of the bottom 15, 9 saw their DUSHEE score rise.   Baylor got hammered during their bye week, falling 28 spots and losing 11 points in their DUSHEE score primarily because each of their past opponents (UTSA, Duke, OU, and K-State) all lost.  The Bears went from ranked 24th to 52nd and a DUSHEE score of 15.91 to 4.87.   TCU was impacted similarly, despite winning.  The positive impact of TCU beating WVU by 7 (point differential = +24) was stunted by being outgained by 102 yards (yardage differential = +12.3) resulting in a DUSHEE score of +16.6 for the game.  Which is good, but less than half of their average DUSHEE score from the week before, +34.9.  Then add to that the fact that most of TCU's opponents lost (Arkansas was whipped by South Carolina, SMU fell to Houston) and the Frogs fell 2 spots and lost almost 8 points on their DUSHEE score.   As for the other oddballs mentioned last week, UCF fell 3 spots and lost more than 10 points off their DUSHEE score, despite beating Cincinnati by 4 TDs, but are still ranked 7th, one spot ahead of the Frogs.  Ohio State's point differential over UNLV fell by 20 points due to the Running Rebel's 31-point loss to San Diego State, but the Buckeyes made up for that by getting a +44.3 point differential against Maryland.  So Ohio State not only tops the new DUSHEE poll, but extended their lead over Alabama and Clemson by almost 4 DUSHEE points.   The main oddity that needs addressing this week is the fact that Oklahoma lost to Iowa State and rose 3 spots in the rankings.  Oklahoma's rise was not due to DUSHEE thinking highly of their performance against Iowa State; in fact the Sooners' point differential against the Cyclones was a -2.3.  However, the Sooners got huge boosts from two prior opponents, Ohio State and ... Tulane.  Unlike Baylor and TCU, Oklahoma's previous opponents had banner days, with Ohio State's aforementioned beat down of Maryland and the Green Wave putting a 62-28 curb-stomping on Tulsa.  Both of these results caused a huge boost in OU's point differential in their games against those two opponents.  So despite the fact that Oklahoma has looked extremely average the last two weeks against middling-to-poor conference opponents, their non-conference wins continue to look really good.   So before we get to the rankings, a few other items of interest that I'll track from week-to-week.   The Frogs Week-to-Week: Highlighted cells mean one of the top 3 values of that week. Opp: @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU PD: 16.00 33.25 42.25   24.00 YD: 116.33 239.00 235.75   12.33 Score: 16.60 34.36 40.19   16.63   Conference Ratings: B10 12.10 B12 11.84 ACC 10.33 P12 8.05 SEC 4.79 AAC -0.54 MWC -7.39 MAC -13.72 CUSA -14.05 SBC -14.21   Performances of the week: Note: These reflect the highest and lowest DUSHEE point totals of for games this week as of this moment.  As the discussion above points out, the point totals, even for games that are weeks old, change as the season progresses.  So these may not be the highest and lowest performances for this week by the end of the season.   Top 3: 54.0 Ohio State vs. Maryland (62-14 point margin, 584-66 yardage margin) 39.2 Washington State vs. Oregon (33-10 point margin, 369-277 yardage margin) 34.4 Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (38-31 point margin, 449-513 yardage margin)   Bottom 3: -51.0 Tulsa vs. Tulane (28-62 point margin, 412-658 yardage margin) -48.7 ECU vs. Temple (10-34 point margin, 287-523 yardage margin) -46.4 UConn vs. Memphis (31-70 point margin, 477-711 yardage margin)   Strength of Schedule: Top 10 FSU 19.7 Mary 19.5 Rut 13.2 OreSt 13.0 Ind 12.8 BC 11.3 Bay 11.2 TCU 10.5 MissSt 9.9 Vandy 9.9   Bottom 10 (in reverse order) MTSU -9.6 Marsh -10.4 EMU -10.5 Ball -11.0 Ohio -11.2 Umass -11.3 FIU -12.5 Ida -13.0 WKU -19.2 USF -20.7   Overall Ranks (Original Formulation): I've added two columns to the ranks to capture movement in the rankings from week-to-week.  The first column is the change in rank and the second is the change in DUSHEE score.   Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  36.46 322.65 40.76 0 -1.61 2 Alabama  35.49 253.03 36.56 0 -5.43 3 Clemson  32.19 288.23 36.16 0 -5.17 4 Penn St.  36.93 158.92 32.73 3 -1.01 5 Oklahoma  26.07 273.59 31.33 3 -1.38 6 Georgia  30.87 155.34 28.50 3 -1.54 7 UCF  29.44 150.92 27.32 -3 -10.33 8 TCU  28.88 150.85 26.94 -2 -7.96 9 Oklahoma St.  23.36 200.40 25.79 3 -0.51 10 Notre Dame  27.70 136.86 25.45 3 0.24 11 Wisconsin  26.07 151.91 25.13 0 -1.58 12 Auburn  19.86 174.64 22.15 5 0.00 13 Washington St.  18.63 177.20 21.46 18 8.17 14 Michigan  14.78 208.60 20.49 1 -2.10 15 Virginia Tech  16.76 165.53 19.61 -5 -9.36 16 Michigan St.  16.58 167.00 19.57 5 2.77 17 Miami (FL)  20.97 102.22 19.19 -12 -16.09 18 Washington  19.20 114.47 18.64 9 4.16 19 USC  16.97 102.63 16.55 -5 -6.91 20 Texas Tech  16.85 103.85 16.53 9 2.97 21 Mississippi St.  14.06 131.94 16.10 1 -0.13 22 Florida St.  14.76 108.29 15.36 -3 -2.54 23 N.C. State  12.64 126.15 14.86 11 5.21 24 Iowa St.  17.21 63.90 14.73 26 10.58 25 Oregon  11.11 131.23 14.10 -7 -6.83 26 Arizona  13.48 86.17 13.38 -6 -4.29 27 Georgia Tech  5.89 183.66 13.29 -1 -1.58 28 Stanford  16.59 33.92 12.79 5 2.80 29 Purdue  12.38 86.38 12.66 6 3.18 30 Texas A&M  11.90 88.03 12.42 14 5.33 31 Indiana  10.88 93.41 12.02 11 4.76 32 Louisville  5.18 153.63 11.29 -9 -4.75 33 West Virginia  8.29 108.15 11.04 -5 -3.03 34 South Florida  8.81 96.45 10.79 7 3.13 35 San Diego St.  13.84 29.89 10.75 21 8.44 36 Iowa  17.39 -17.54 10.70 -6 -2.69 37 Houston  13.13 28.21 10.19 12 5.51 38 Texas  9.55 68.85 9.88 2 1.60 39 Memphis  12.60 19.48 9.40 12 5.46 40 Colorado  9.88 53.65 9.32 3 2.19 41 Colorado St.  5.77 91.25 8.50 -2 0.19 42 Wake Forest  9.73 30.43 8.04 3 1.20 43 Duke  4.96 82.09 7.49 -18 -7.60 44 Boise St.  7.17 50.28 7.34 -12 -4.32 45 UCLA  5.41 65.18 6.93 2 1.19 46 Virginia  3.88 83.00 6.82 0 1.01 47 SMU  8.47 17.33 6.53 -11 -2.36 48 Southern Miss  2.06 100.54 6.50 19 7.84 49 Maryland  8.28 3.58 5.70 -33 -16.61 50 UT-San Antonio -1.28 127.53 5.65 -13 -3.10 51 Northwestern  6.45 21.18 5.38 4 3.04 52 Baylor  2.23 66.38 4.87 -28 -11.04 53 Tulane  5.59 6.50 4.06 15 5.82 54 Arizona St.  5.45 5.27 3.90 0 1.52 55 Utah  4.84 6.58 3.56 4 1.62 56 Navy  3.01 13.84 2.71 -3 0.02 57 W. Michigan  6.64 -43.18 2.22 -5 -1.20 58 Nebraska  1.58 22.81 2.22 8 3.39 59 Syracuse  -2.70 64.29 1.48 4 0.84 60 North Texas  -2.86 62.35 1.27 1 -0.03 61 Appalachian State 1.29 -7.90 0.46 3 1.12 62 Kansas St.  4.21 -47.42 0.39 -2 -0.98 63 Air Force  -2.15 26.83 -0.06 21 5.45 64 Minnesota  2.17 -29.82 -0.07 -16 -5.38 65 South Carolina  3.82 -56.08 -0.31 18 5.11 66 Boston Coll.  -0.03 -8.84 -0.47 7 2.22 67 LSU  -4.27 45.58 -0.52 2 1.36 68 Pittsburgh  -1.44 4.88 -0.71 -11 -2.95 69 New Mexico  -3.89 22.67 -1.44 1 0.66 70 Arkansas  -3.54 17.33 -1.48 -32 -9.98 71 Troy  -1.95 -4.89 -1.55 10 3.34 72 Florida Atlantic  3.28 -75.76 -1.67 2 1.29 73 Tennessee  -2.01 -13.18 -2.01 3 1.16 74 Cincinnati  -4.35 15.80 -2.09 4 1.66 75 Fresno St.  -4.09 8.66 -2.28 -17 -4.39 76 Army  -0.55 -42.25 -2.52 23 10.77 77 Toledo  -2.40 -38.81 -3.58 11 3.65 78 Northern Illinois  -4.04 -19.54 -3.69 -13 -2.66 79 Florida  -0.55 -66.42 -3.75 -8 -1.63 80 Kentucky  1.62 -109.86 -4.52 -18 -5.82 81 Georgia State -5.77 -14.73 -4.60 13 4.77 82 Coastal Carolina -9.42 14.15 -5.56 0 -0.24 83 UNLV  -2.93 -79.20 -5.99 -11 -3.41 84 LA Monroe  -6.10 -46.97 -6.46 20 8.05 85 Temple  -4.13 -75.37 -6.59 7 1.91 86 Rutgers  -7.28 -35.13 -6.64 1 0.17 87 New Mexico St.  -10.92 11.51 -6.69 2 0.79 88 California  -6.15 -51.52 -6.73 -11 -3.18 89 Marshall  -6.90 -56.80 -7.50 4 1.62 90 Buffalo  -1.85 -124.25 -7.57 10 5.86 91 North Carolina  -7.23 -57.44 -7.75 -12 -3.79 92 Miami (OH)  -10.69 -12.77 -7.78 -12 -3.07 93 Vanderbilt  -2.24 -127.23 -7.98 -18 -4.93 94 Ohio  -7.48 -64.64 -8.29 -9 -2.34 95 East. Michigan  -8.67 -62.78 -8.98 0 0.51 96 UAB -13.15 -19.79 -9.77 0 1.39 97 Louisiana Tech  -10.17 -69.52 -10.33 0 2.29 98 Illinois  -8.19 -114.11 -11.28 -7 -2.92 99 Middle Tenn. St.  -13.68 -58.25 -12.09 10 5.78 100 Tulsa  -9.43 -122.33 -12.53 -14 -6.27 101 Mississippi  -14.37 -64.05 -12.85 0 1.54 102 Utah St.  -11.06 -148.90 -14.97 0 -0.49 103 Missouri  -15.03 -101.88 -15.21 13 8.15 104 Akron  -10.30 -185.60 -16.33 16 8.63 105 Wyoming  -11.75 -169.53 -16.48 0 -1.11 106 Hawaii  -23.87 -12.43 -16.54 -8 -3.82 107 Oregon St.  -19.36 -86.22 -17.30 1 0.31 108 Arkansas St.  -14.67 -155.38 -17.70 -18 -10.13 109 Cent. Michigan  -20.38 -82.09 -17.78 5 3.48 110 BYU  -15.82 -147.65 -18.07 -4 -1.64 111 LA Lafayette  -18.33 -125.73 -18.63 6 5.17 112 Massachusetts -22.29 -78.08 -18.84 3 2.84 113 Nevada  -18.80 -131.70 -19.25 9 10.10 114 West. Kentucky  -17.64 -156.51 -19.74 -11 -5.25 115 Idaho  -21.31 -153.35 -22.03 -3 -2.20 116 Florida Intl.  -23.58 -126.59 -22.18 -3 -1.06 117 Ball St.  -23.28 -134.00 -22.36 -6 -2.94 118 Kansas  -26.73 -103.54 -23.10 -11 -6.21 119 East Carolina  -27.47 -165.55 -26.75 -9 -7.73 120 Bowling Green  -24.16 -211.65 -26.90 6 8.80 121 Kent St.  -27.32 -186.51 -27.73 0 1.58 122 Old Dominion -25.70 -229.63 -28.84 -3 -4.04 123 Georgia Southern -31.25 -162.47 -29.12 2 5.04 124 Texas St. -29.42 -186.87 -29.14 -1 0.36 125 South Alabama -29.79 -188.35 -29.47 -1 2.41 126 UNC-Charlotte -29.22 -196.50 -29.50 1 8.61 127 Connecticut  -29.15 -197.46 -29.50 -9 -5.35 128 UTEP  -30.24 -245.05 -32.66 2 6.75 129 Rice  -35.36 -239.34 -35.78 0 3.19 130 San Jose St.  -37.18 -265.35 -38.32 -2 0.03   By Conference AAC 7 UCF  29.44 150.92 27.32 34 South Florida  8.81 96.45 10.79 37 Houston  13.13 28.21 10.19 39 Memphis  12.60 19.48 9.40 47 SMU  8.47 17.33 6.53 53 Tulane  5.59 6.50 4.06 56 Navy  3.01 13.84 2.71 74 Cincinnati  -4.35 15.80 -2.09 85 Temple  -4.13 -75.37 -6.59 100 Tulsa  -9.43 -122.33 -12.53 119 East Carolina  -27.47 -165.55 -26.75 127 Connecticut  -29.15 -197.46 -29.50 ACC 3 Clemson  32.19 288.23 36.16 15 Virginia Tech  16.76 165.53 19.61 17 Miami (FL)  20.97 102.22 19.19 22 Florida St.  14.76 108.29 15.36 23 N.C. State  12.64 126.15 14.86 27 Georgia Tech  5.89 183.66 13.29 32 Louisville  5.18 153.63 11.29 42 Wake Forest  9.73 30.43 8.04 43 Duke  4.96 82.09 7.49 46 Virginia  3.88 83.00 6.82 59 Syracuse  -2.70 64.29 1.48 66 Boston Coll.  -0.03 -8.84 -0.47 68 Pittsburgh  -1.44 4.88 -0.71 91 North Carolina  -7.23 -57.44 -7.75 B1G 1 Ohio St.  36.46 322.65 40.76 4 Penn St.  36.93 158.92 32.73 11 Wisconsin  26.07 151.91 25.13 14 Michigan  14.78 208.60 20.49 16 Michigan St.  16.58 167.00 19.57 29 Purdue  12.38 86.38 12.66 31 Indiana  10.88 93.41 12.02 36 Iowa  17.39 -17.54 10.70 49 Maryland  8.28 3.58 5.70 51 Northwestern  6.45 21.18 5.38 58 Nebraska  1.58 22.81 2.22 64 Minnesota  2.17 -29.82 -0.07 86 Rutgers  -7.28 -35.13 -6.64 98 Illinois  -8.19 -114.11 -11.28 BXII-II 5 Oklahoma  26.07 273.59 31.33 8 TCU  28.88 150.85 26.94 9 Oklahoma St.  23.36 200.40 25.79 20 Texas Tech  16.85 103.85 16.53 24 Iowa St.  17.21 63.90 14.73 33 West Virginia  8.29 108.15 11.04 38 Texas  9.55 68.85 9.88 52 Baylor  2.23 66.38 4.87 62 Kansas St.  4.21 -47.42 0.39 118 Kansas  -26.73 -103.54 -23.10 CUSA 48 Southern Miss  2.06 100.54 6.50 50 UT-San Antonio -1.28 127.53 5.65 60 North Texas  -2.86 62.35 1.27 72 Florida Atlantic  3.28 -75.76 -1.67 89 Marshall  -6.90 -56.80 -7.50 96 UAB -13.15 -19.79 -9.77 97 Louisiana Tech  -10.17 -69.52 -10.33 99 Middle Tenn. St.  -13.68 -58.25 -12.09 114 West. Kentucky  -17.64 -156.51 -19.74 116 Florida Intl.  -23.58 -126.59 -22.18 122 Old Dominion -25.70 -229.63 -28.84 126 UNC-Charlotte -29.22 -196.50 -29.50 128 UTEP  -30.24 -245.05 -32.66 129 Rice  -35.36 -239.34 -35.78 Indies 10 Notre Dame  27.70 136.86 25.45 76 Army  -0.55 -42.25 -2.52 110 BYU  -15.82 -147.65 -18.07 112 Massachusetts -22.29 -78.08 -18.84 MAC 57 W. Michigan  6.64 -43.18 2.22 77 Toledo  -2.40 -38.81 -3.58 78 Northern Illinois  -4.04 -19.54 -3.69 90 Buffalo  -1.85 -124.25 -7.57 92 Miami (OH)  -10.69 -12.77 -7.78 94 Ohio  -7.48 -64.64 -8.29 95 East. Michigan  -8.67 -62.78 -8.98 104 Akron  -10.30 -185.60 -16.33 109 Cent. Michigan  -20.38 -82.09 -17.78 117 Ball St.  -23.28 -134.00 -22.36 120 Bowling Green  -24.16 -211.65 -26.90 121 Kent St.  -27.32 -186.51 -27.73 MWC 35 San Diego St.  13.84 29.89 10.75 41 Colorado St.  5.77 91.25 8.50 44 Boise St.  7.17 50.28 7.34 63 Air Force  -2.15 26.83 -0.06 69 New Mexico  -3.89 22.67 -1.44 75 Fresno St.  -4.09 8.66 -2.28 83 UNLV  -2.93 -79.20 -5.99 102 Utah St.  -11.06 -148.90 -14.97 105 Wyoming  -11.75 -169.53 -16.48 106 Hawaii  -23.87 -12.43 -16.54 113 Nevada  -18.80 -131.70 -19.25 130 San Jose St.  -37.18 -265.35 -38.32 P12 13 Washington St.  18.63 177.20 21.46 18 Washington  19.20 114.47 18.64 19 USC  16.97 102.63 16.55 25 Oregon  11.11 131.23 14.10 26 Arizona  13.48 86.17 13.38 28 Stanford  16.59 33.92 12.79 40 Colorado  9.88 53.65 9.32 45 UCLA  5.41 65.18 6.93 54 Arizona St.  5.45 5.27 3.90 55 Utah  4.84 6.58 3.56 88 California  -6.15 -51.52 -6.73 107 Oregon St.  -19.36 -86.22 -17.30 SBC 61 Appalachian State 1.29 -7.90 0.46 71 Troy  -1.95 -4.89 -1.55 81 Georgia State -5.77 -14.73 -4.60 82 Coastal Carolina -9.42 14.15 -5.56 84 LA Monroe  -6.10 -46.97 -6.46 87 New Mexico St.  -10.92 11.51 -6.69 108 Arkansas St.  -14.67 -155.38 -17.70 111 LA Lafayette  -18.33 -125.73 -18.63 115 Idaho  -21.31 -153.35 -22.03 123 Georgia Southern -31.25 -162.47 -29.12 124 Texas St. -29.42 -186.87 -29.14 125 South Alabama -29.79 -188.35 -29.47 SEC 2 Alabama  35.49 253.03 36.56 6 Georgia  30.87 155.34 28.50 12 Auburn  19.86 174.64 22.15 21 Mississippi St.  14.06 131.94 16.10 30 Texas A&M  11.90 88.03 12.42 65 South Carolina  3.82 -56.08 -0.31 67 LSU  -4.27 45.58 -0.52 70 Arkansas  -3.54 17.33 -1.48 73 Tennessee  -2.01 -13.18 -2.01 79 Florida  -0.55 -66.42 -3.75 80 Kentucky  1.62 -109.86 -4.52 93 Vanderbilt  -2.24 -127.23 -7.98 101 Mississippi  -14.37 -64.05 -12.85 103 Missouri  -15.03 -101.88 -15.21    

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

The Inaugural 2017 DUSHEE Rankings

If you just want the rankings and don't care about my jibber-jabber, scroll down to the bottom of this post.  But I encourage you to read the jibber-jabber to allow me to explain some of the crazy stuff you see in the rankings.  And as an aside, the addition of Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and the rising of the UAB Phoenixes/Blazers from the ashes has raised the number of FBS teams to 130 for this season.   I'm always quite apprehensive putting out DUSHEE, particularly these early ones when some teams still only have two games against FBS competition.  This year, I'm particularly apprehensive, because DUSHEE has come up with some rankings that ... well, shall we say ... go against conventional wisdom.  But rather than shirk from the mocking and cower from the slings and arrows of outrageous slander, I'm going to use this as an opportunity to elucidate the pitfalls of such analyses and look at some of the oddities that appear in the inaugural DUSHEE for 2017.   To get the big one out of the way early, DUSHEE is not as down on Baylor as the rest of the college football world.  In fact, the initial DUSHEE (original formulation, because extra-crispy DUSHEE is even higher on the Rapey Bears) has the winless Bears ranked .... 24th.  Yes, DUSHEE has Baylor as a top 25 team.  So let's look at why.   First, as far as DUSHEE is concerned, the loss to Liberty never happened.  Generally that's not a big deal because most teams beat their patsies by huge margins and they can be ignored.  When an FBS team loses to their patsy, that's a big piece of information that gets ignored, because I have a hard enough time keeping track of FBS teams without doubling the population of teams.   Outside of Liberty, DUSHEE has Baylor's strength of schedule is the 5th hardest in FBS (TCU's schedule ranks 4th, BTW).  UTSA is ranked 37th (based on 2 games, a 17-10 win against Baylor and a 44-14 win against Texas State), Duke is 25th, OU is 8th, and K-State is 60th.  Baylor in particular, gets a lot of mileage in DUSHEE for their 8-point loss to Oklahoma.   Opp:  UTSA @ Duke  OU @ KSU PD: 23.00 -11.00 27.33 7.50 YD: 253.00 -25.67 223.67 197.00 Score: 27.99 -8.62 29.41 14.86   So right now, Baylor's point differential against UTSA (which is inflated due to the fact that UTSA's only other FCS game was a blowout win against Texas State .... PD = -7+30 = 23) and Oklahoma are quite high, despite being losses.  Baylor played UTSA and OU closer than their opponents did.  Baylor played OU closer than Ohio State did.   Of course, one would expect Baylor's point differential against UTSA to go down as UTSA plays more teams and presumably doesn't blow out every other team on their schedule.  But right now, Baylor's score against UTSA is based solely on a comparison with Texas State.  And since Baylor played UTSA significantly better than Texas State did, they get a high point differential.   Which is why you should be wary of any data-based ranking system when the data is scarce.  If Baylor is still getting a DUSHEE score of 28 points for the UTSA game by week 10, then UTSA will have destroyed the rest of Conference USA and is probably in the top 25.  But I suspect that the UTSA score will drop significantly by then.  That said, UTSA doesn't exactly have a murderer's row of opponents the rest of the way out, which is why I created the extra crispy DUSHEE.  But that version of DUSHEE rewards Baylor even more for their tough schedule than original recipe.   Which leads us to Team That Will Cause Frog Horn Incredulity #2: Ohio State.  DUSHEE has the Ohio State team that got blown out at home to Oklahoma as the #1 team in the country.  Barely, but they are not quite 0.4 points above Alabama and a point above Clemson.  And the opponent that is putting Ohio State on top?  UNLV, the team that lost to Howard.   The Ohio State-UNLV situation is a similar one to the Baylor-UTSA situation above.  Ohio State beat UNLV by 33 points and outgained the Runnin' Rebels by 404 yards.  That is being compared to UNLV's other two FBS games, a 28-point win over Idaho and a 28-point win over San Jose State.  That makes Ohio State's point differential over UNLV 61 points (33+28).  And as with the Baylor-Liberty tilt, DUSHEE doesn't know UNLV-Howard was ever played.  When you blow out a team that has only blown out other teams, you get a really high point differential.  UNLV isn't going to blow out the rest of their schedule.  That number will come down and Ohio State's ranking will come down.   And while there are a number of other teams that will doubtlessly make you question my sanity, the final team at which will take a look is Central Florida.  The inaugural DUSHEE has UCF as the 4th ranked team in the country.  And while I don't think UCF is actually the 4th best team in the country, UCF has been impressive and under the radar.  So far, UCF has blown out Florida International 61-17, Maryland (the team that beat Texas in Austin) 38-10, and Memphis (who took down Ole Miss) 40-13.  None of those opponents are world beaters by any stretch, but Maryland and Memphis aren't total patsies either and UCF pounded them both.  I have no doubt that the Knights are being over-rated here, but I do think this is a team that is currently under the radar nationally that is probably a lot better than pollsters are giving them credit.   The Frogs enter the rankings at number 6 and DUSHEE has the Big 12 barely ahead of the ACC and Big 10 as the best conference (on average) in FBS.  Note that the letters 'SEC' were nowhere in that sentence.  For the first time that I can remember since doing this DUSHEE experiment, the SEC not only isn't the top-ranked conference, they are the LOWEST ranked conference of the "Power 5."  And since the vast majority of OOC games are in the books, I wouldn't expect the SEC to be able to make up enough ground to challenge the top conferences by the season's end.  This is arguably a historic down year for the conference.  I'm sure we will be getting a bunch of stories about the inferiority of the SEC on ESPN over the next few weeks. [/sarcasm]   Conference Rankings B12 13.44 ACC 13.43 B10 13.28 P12 7.99 SEC 5.28 AAC 0.17 MWC -8.01 MAC -15.68 SBC -15.75 CUSA -15.85   Rank by Team Rank-Team-PD-YD-DUSHEE Score 1 Ohio St.  39.20 324.60 42.37 2 Alabama  41.53 285.93 41.99 3 Clemson  36.50 339.83 41.34 4 UCF  38.83 235.17 37.65 5 Miami (FL)  35.50 232.25 35.29 6 TCU  36.92 205.64 34.90 7 Penn St.  37.90 169.23 33.73 8 Oklahoma  28.60 272.75 32.72 9 Georgia  32.98 161.04 30.04 10 Virginia Tech  26.13 231.04 28.98 11 Wisconsin  27.50 167.33 26.70 12 Oklahoma St.  23.03 218.82 26.30 13 Notre Dame  29.07 116.45 25.20 14 USC  24.70 139.60 23.45 15 Michigan  19.08 197.29 22.59 16 Maryland  23.50 132.72 22.31 17 Auburn  21.17 160.60 22.15 18 Oregon  18.63 170.17 20.93 19 Florida St.  17.69 122.08 17.90 20 Arizona  16.67 131.14 17.67 21 Michigan St.  13.19 160.02 16.80 22 Mississippi St.  14.50 131.25 16.23 23 Louisville  9.44 194.75 16.03 24 Baylor  11.71 162.00 15.91 25 Duke  11.77 144.81 15.09 26 Georgia Tech  7.03 203.58 14.87 27 Washington  16.21 73.46 14.48 28 West Virginia  11.67 125.83 14.07 29 Texas Tech  13.08 96.83 13.57 30 Iowa  17.40 35.63 13.38 31 Washington St.  9.81 134.85 13.29 32 Boise St.  9.46 107.17 11.67 33 Stanford  14.83 2.03 9.99 34 N.C. State  9.13 71.23 9.65 35 Purdue  9.46 63.50 9.48 36 SMU  11.21 28.21 8.88 37 UT-San Antonio 0.00 174.83 8.75 38 Arkansas  7.17 74.53 8.51 39 Colorado St.  6.88 74.42 8.31 40 Texas  7.75 62.13 8.27 41 South Florida  6.85 61.81 7.66 42 Indiana  9.25 21.94 7.26 43 Colorado  9.19 20.17 7.13 44 Texas A&M  6.75 51.75 7.09 45 Wake Forest  8.31 25.83 6.83 46 Virginia  3.11 74.67 5.81 47 UCLA  4.17 59.18 5.74 48 Minnesota  6.54 18.85 5.30 49 Houston  6.17 11.35 4.68 50 Iowa St.  6.75 -6.97 4.15 51 Memphis  8.17 -30.17 3.94 52 W. Michigan  7.67 -33.79 3.42 53 Navy  2.35 22.38 2.69 54 Arizona St.  4.23 -8.73 2.39 55 Northwestern  3.42 1.17 2.34 56 San Diego St.  5.50 -27.00 2.32 57 Pittsburgh  0.38 39.81 2.24 58 Fresno St.  0.53 35.06 2.11 59 Utah  3.03 -1.50 1.94 60 Kansas St.  4.00 -25.89 1.37 61 North Texas  -3.44 71.92 1.31 62 Kentucky  7.10 -68.83 1.29 63 Syracuse  -4.50 72.77 0.64 64 Appalachian State -2.33 17.78 -0.67 65 Northern Illinois  -2.11 7.53 -1.03 66 Nebraska  -1.77 0.07 -1.17 67 Southern Miss  -5.56 47.22 -1.34 68 Tulane  -2.00 -8.56 -1.76 69 LSU  -6.00 42.42 -1.88 70 New Mexico  -3.67 6.98 -2.10 71 Florida  2.17 -71.25 -2.12 72 UNLV  1.75 -74.83 -2.58 73 Boston Coll.  -1.73 -30.57 -2.68 74 Florida Atlantic  1.06 -73.40 -2.96 75 Vanderbilt  2.00 -87.73 -3.06 76 Tennessee  -2.87 -25.30 -3.18 77 California  -4.58 -9.77 -3.54 78 Cincinnati  -5.33 -3.92 -3.75 79 North Carolina  -4.83 -14.73 -3.96 80 Miami (OH)  -6.19 -11.69 -4.71 81 Troy  -5.52 -24.15 -4.89 82 Coastal Carolina -9.14 15.51 -5.32 83 South Carolina  -1.50 -88.47 -5.43 84 Air Force  -5.78 -33.22 -5.51 85 Ohio  -3.83 -67.68 -5.94 86 Tulsa  -3.38 -80.00 -6.26 87 Rutgers  -6.98 -43.17 -6.81 88 Toledo  -3.33 -100.00 -7.23 89 New Mexico St.  -9.73 -19.85 -7.48 90 Arkansas St.  -8.54 -37.54 -7.57 91 Illinois  -2.25 -137.10 -8.36 92 Temple  -4.48 -110.23 -8.50 93 Marshall  -5.92 -103.33 -9.11 94 Georgia State -12.00 -27.42 -9.37 95 East. Michigan  -9.92 -57.58 -9.49 96 UAB -15.11 -21.72 -11.16 97 Louisiana Tech  -12.46 -86.13 -12.61 98 Hawaii  -22.04 39.32 -12.73 99 Army  -11.54 -111.75 -13.29 100 Buffalo  -7.42 -169.67 -13.43 101 Mississippi  -17.25 -57.78 -14.39 102 Utah St.  -12.46 -123.31 -14.47 103 West. Kentucky  -11.44 -137.22 -14.49 104 LA Monroe  -12.63 -121.75 -14.51 105 Wyoming  -11.81 -149.83 -15.37 106 BYU  -13.83 -144.13 -16.43 107 Kansas  -20.17 -68.89 -16.89 108 Oregon St.  -19.67 -89.92 -17.61 109 Middle Tenn. St.  -20.13 -88.93 -17.87 110 East Carolina  -21.50 -93.83 -19.03 111 Ball St.  -17.67 -152.63 -19.41 112 Idaho  -17.28 -166.11 -19.83 113 Florida Intl.  -22.25 -125.58 -21.12 114 Cent. Michigan  -25.48 -85.35 -21.26 115 Massachusetts -24.97 -100.67 -21.68 116 Missouri  -22.75 -163.86 -23.36 117 LA Lafayette  -22.03 -182.28 -23.80 118 Connecticut  -24.11 -161.39 -24.15 119 Old Dominion -21.51 -209.19 -24.80 120 Akron  -20.04 -231.92 -24.96 121 Kent St.  -28.15 -210.69 -29.30 122 Nevada  -27.08 -225.83 -29.35 123 Texas St. -33.08 -148.88 -29.50 124 South Alabama -32.94 -198.29 -31.88 125 Georgia Southern -30.17 -280.83 -34.16 126 Bowling Green  -35.00 -247.10 -35.70 127 UNC-Charlotte -42.17 -199.83 -38.11 128 San Jose St.  -36.70 -277.47 -38.35 129 Rice  -37.23 -282.65 -38.96 130 UTEP  -36.78 -297.57 -39.41   By Conference AAC 4 UCF  38.83 235.17 37.65 36 SMU  11.21 28.21 8.88 41 South Florida  6.85 61.81 7.66 49 Houston  6.17 11.35 4.68 51 Memphis  8.17 -30.17 3.94 53 Navy  2.35 22.38 2.69 68 Tulane  -2.00 -8.56 -1.76 78 Cincinnati  -5.33 -3.92 -3.75 86 Tulsa  -3.38 -80.00 -6.26 92 Temple  -4.48 -110.23 -8.50 110 East Carolina  -21.50 -93.83 -19.03 118 Connecticut  -24.11 -161.39 -24.15 ACC 3 Clemson  36.50 339.83 41.34 5 Miami (FL)  35.50 232.25 35.29 10 Virginia Tech  26.13 231.04 28.98 19 Florida St.  17.69 122.08 17.90 23 Louisville  9.44 194.75 16.03 25 Duke  11.77 144.81 15.09 26 Georgia Tech  7.03 203.58 14.87 34 N.C. State  9.13 71.23 9.65 45 Wake Forest  8.31 25.83 6.83 46 Virginia  3.11 74.67 5.81 57 Pittsburgh  0.38 39.81 2.24 63 Syracuse  -4.50 72.77 0.64 73 Boston Coll.  -1.73 -30.57 -2.68 79 North Carolina  -4.83 -14.73 -3.96 B1G 1 Ohio St.  39.20 324.60 42.37 7 Penn St.  37.90 169.23 33.73 11 Wisconsin  27.50 167.33 26.70 15 Michigan  19.08 197.29 22.59 16 Maryland  23.50 132.72 22.31 21 Michigan St.  13.19 160.02 16.80 30 Iowa  17.40 35.63 13.38 35 Purdue  9.46 63.50 9.48 42 Indiana  9.25 21.94 7.26 48 Minnesota  6.54 18.85 5.30 55 Northwestern  3.42 1.17 2.34 66 Nebraska  -1.77 0.07 -1.17 87 Rutgers  -6.98 -43.17 -6.81 91 Illinois  -2.25 -137.10 -8.36 BXII-II 6 TCU  36.92 205.64 34.90 8 Oklahoma  28.60 272.75 32.72 12 Oklahoma St.  23.03 218.82 26.30 24 Baylor  11.71 162.00 15.91 28 West Virginia  11.67 125.83 14.07 29 Texas Tech  13.08 96.83 13.57 40 Texas  7.75 62.13 8.27 50 Iowa St.  6.75 -6.97 4.15 60 Kansas St.  4.00 -25.89 1.37 107 Kansas  -20.17 -68.89 -16.89 CUSA 37 UT-San Antonio 0.00 174.83 8.75 61 North Texas  -3.44 71.92 1.31 67 Southern Miss  -5.56 47.22 -1.34 74 Florida Atlantic  1.06 -73.40 -2.96 93 Marshall  -5.92 -103.33 -9.11 96 UAB -15.11 -21.72 -11.16 97 Louisiana Tech  -12.46 -86.13 -12.61 103 West. Kentucky  -11.44 -137.22 -14.49 109 Middle Tenn. St.  -20.13 -88.93 -17.87 113 Florida Intl.  -22.25 -125.58 -21.12 119 Old Dominion -21.51 -209.19 -24.80 127 UNC-Charlotte -42.17 -199.83 -38.11 129 Rice  -37.23 -282.65 -38.96 130 UTEP  -36.78 -297.57 -39.41 Indies 13 Notre Dame  29.07 116.45 25.20 99 Army  -11.54 -111.75 -13.29 106 BYU  -13.83 -144.13 -16.43 115 Massachusetts -24.97 -100.67 -21.68 MAC 52 W. Michigan  7.67 -33.79 3.42 65 Northern Illinois  -2.11 7.53 -1.03 80 Miami (OH)  -6.19 -11.69 -4.71 85 Ohio  -3.83 -67.68 -5.94 88 Toledo  -3.33 -100.00 -7.23 95 East. Michigan  -9.92 -57.58 -9.49 100 Buffalo  -7.42 -169.67 -13.43 111 Ball St.  -17.67 -152.63 -19.41 114 Cent. Michigan  -25.48 -85.35 -21.26 120 Akron  -20.04 -231.92 -24.96 121 Kent St.  -28.15 -210.69 -29.30 126 Bowling Green  -35.00 -247.10 -35.70 MWC 32 Boise St.  9.46 107.17 11.67 39 Colorado St.  6.88 74.42 8.31 56 San Diego St.  5.50 -27.00 2.32 58 Fresno St.  0.53 35.06 2.11 70 New Mexico  -3.67 6.98 -2.10 72 UNLV  1.75 -74.83 -2.58 84 Air Force  -5.78 -33.22 -5.51 98 Hawaii  -22.04 39.32 -12.73 102 Utah St.  -12.46 -123.31 -14.47 105 Wyoming  -11.81 -149.83 -15.37 122 Nevada  -27.08 -225.83 -29.35 128 San Jose St.  -36.70 -277.47 -38.35 P12 14 USC  24.70 139.60 23.45 18 Oregon  18.63 170.17 20.93 20 Arizona  16.67 131.14 17.67 27 Washington  16.21 73.46 14.48 31 Washington St.  9.81 134.85 13.29 33 Stanford  14.83 2.03 9.99 43 Colorado  9.19 20.17 7.13 47 UCLA  4.17 59.18 5.74 54 Arizona St.  4.23 -8.73 2.39 59 Utah  3.03 -1.50 1.94 77 California  -4.58 -9.77 -3.54 108 Oregon St.  -19.67 -89.92 -17.61 SBC 64 Appalachian State -2.33 17.78 -0.67 81 Troy  -5.52 -24.15 -4.89 82 Coastal Carolina -9.14 15.51 -5.32 89 New Mexico St.  -9.73 -19.85 -7.48 90 Arkansas St.  -8.54 -37.54 -7.57 94 Georgia State -12.00 -27.42 -9.37 104 LA Monroe  -12.63 -121.75 -14.51 112 Idaho  -17.28 -166.11 -19.83 117 LA Lafayette  -22.03 -182.28 -23.80 123 Texas St. -33.08 -148.88 -29.50 124 South Alabama -32.94 -198.29 -31.88 125 Georgia Southern -30.17 -280.83 -34.16 SEC 2 Alabama  41.53 285.93 41.99 9 Georgia  32.98 161.04 30.04 17 Auburn  21.17 160.60 22.15 22 Mississippi St.  14.50 131.25 16.23 38 Arkansas  7.17 74.53 8.51 44 Texas A&M  6.75 51.75 7.09 62 Kentucky  7.10 -68.83 1.29 69 LSU  -6.00 42.42 -1.88 71 Florida  2.17 -71.25 -2.12 75 Vanderbilt  2.00 -87.73 -3.06 76 Tennessee  -2.87 -25.30 -3.18 83 South Carolina  -1.50 -88.47 -5.43 101 Mississippi  -17.25 -57.78 -14.39 116 Missouri  -22.75 -163.86 -23.36            

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective on College Football (Part II -- The Power 5 and the Rest)

Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.   This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.   And away we go ...   Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II   TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded the Big 6 and Oklahoma State turned the conference into the Big 8.  Then when the SWC went belly up, half the conference merged with the Big 8 to form the Big 12.  In between, Texas and Oklahoma remained each other's primary rival, often to the chagrin of their in-state rivals.   The first chart shows the history of the conference after the expansion to 12.     At the time of the expansion, Nebraska was dominant, playing elite MNC-level football.  Colorado was at a peak but was about the start a slow decline after the McCartney era was exposed and Bill Snyder was getting Kansas State to a pretty elite level.  A&M comes in as the best program of the Texas schools but is in decline.     Then around 2002, Nebraska and Kansas State begin to decline and Texas and Oklahoma begin to rise and those two schools dominate the conference for the next decade.  It is at this point that Nebraska, Colorado, A&M, and Missouri leave, resulting in the entry of TCU and West Virginia.  Texas falls off while Oklahoma State and Baylor emerge as contenders with Oklahoma remaining pretty elite.   The 2005 Texas team ekes out the 2008 Oklahoma team as the best single season in the Big 12 history.  The 2014 Frogs are the highest rated team in the Big XII-II's short history.   The history of the Big 6/7/8 prior to the addition of the Texas schools appears below.     The Big 6/7/8 started out as the original Missouri Valley Conference, with Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa State as charter members with Drake and Washington (Mo).  Kansas State and Grinnell would join shortly after, and Oklahoma joined as Drake, Washington, and Grinnell dropped out of "big time" college football.  From 1928-1947, the conference was six teams.  The addition of Colorado (from the precursor of the WAC, see Part I) in 1948 made the conference seven, and Oklahoma State in 1960 (from the Missouri Valley) formed the Big 8.   During this entire time, the conference was pretty well dominated by two teams -- Nebraska and Oklahoma.  Nebraska dominated the first three decades up until WWII.  After the war, Oklahoma took over as the dominant team for two decades.  Then after the OU-NU hegemony was challenged for a few years by Missouri and Kansas in the early 1960s, Nebraska and Oklahoma vaulted to super-elite status in the late 1960s and remained there for the next two decades when Oklahoma fell apart after Barry Switzer left to coach the Cowboys and Colorado started to emerge.   The clear heyday of the Big 8 was the decade of the 70s when NU and OU were out-of-this-world good and even the perennial bottom-dwellers Kansas State and Iowa State put together decent programs.  Note that aside from this period, Kansas State was consistently atrocious from WWII until about 1990 when Bill Snyder came aboard.  The 1973 Oklahoma team was rated the best in conference history, but pretty much any Nebraska or Oklahoma team from 1970-1974 could have been considered one of the best of all time.   PAC12 (previously the Pacific Coast Conference/Athletic Association of Western Universities/PAC-8/PAC-10)   The schools that would become the PAC-8 started out in the Pacific Coast Conference with Idaho and Montana.  The plot below shows the conference during the PCC years.     Throughout these years, Idaho and Montana struggled to be competitive, generally always comprising the bottom of the standings.  USC emerged as the dominant team in the late 1920s and early 30s, but then came back to the pack prior to WWII.  From that point on, the conference was very evenly competitive with Stanford, Cal, and UCLA all vying for championships most years and many of the other teams, at least briefly, becoming competitive.   In 1959, the California schools and Washington rid themselves of the Oregon schools, Washington State, and Idaho (Montana had left the PCC in 1949) and formed the AAWU.  Washington State was let back in the club in 1962 and the Oregon schools in 1964 when the conference became known as the PAC-8.  For the purposes of continuity, the following chart, which shows the conference from 1960 on, doesn't reflect these rejections and readmittances.     With the official formation of the PAC-8, USC reemerged as the dominant program through the early 1980s (by which point the Arizona schools had moved over from the WAC, see Part I) followed by strong years from UCLA and Washington in the late 80s and 90s.  Note that the USC program at the time of the Sun Bowl was going through its lowest point since the early 1960s.  One of the many ways in which the football gods were smiling on us in 1998.  The Trojans once again re-emerge as the dominant team of the mid-to-late 2000s and then Oregon leveraged that Nike money to get good in the current decade.  Utah and Colorado join in the 2011 season with Utah being solid, middle-of-the-pack and Colorado mostly battling with Washington State for the cellar.   Aside from an extended two decades of bad play from Oregon State at the end of the last century, the PAC has been a pretty competitive conference throughout.  The best ever single season was the 1972 USC team and the highest program marks were reached by the Pete Carroll USC teams of the mid 2000s and the USC teams of the early 1930s.   SEC (previously the Southern Conference)   If you thought the 16-team WAC was the most insane conference ever devised, you probably weren't around for the Southern Conference, which was the precursor of both the SEC and the ACC.  The teams that founded both of those conferences plus a whole bunch of other teams played together in the Southern Conference, which at its greatest extent was a TWENTY-THREE team conference.  It is not immediately obvious how scheduling was handled during this time; there were no official divisions but it does seem like the schools who would become the SEC mostly played each other and the schools that became the ACC mostly played each other.  Some schools played eight conference games; others played four.   The chart below shows the ridiculous history of the Southern Conference up to the time when the SEC split in 1933.  I don't expect you to be able to figure out which squiggle belongs to which school.  Just trust me when I tell you that the top squiggles chronologically are Vanderbilt (yes, Vanderbilt was once good in football), Auburn, Georgia Tech, Alabama, and Tennessee.  The 1917 Rambin' Wreck was the dominant single season team of the era.     The conference at this time also included schools like Tulane, Sewanee, Washington and Lee, and the Virginia Military Institute.  The last two of these teams were left out of the SEC  but remained in the Southern Conference along with most of the teams that would become the ACC.   Next we see the early years of the SEC.  Sewanee hangs on until 1939, battling Mississippi State for the cellar.  Tulane is initially quite competitive, with a 5-year MAV that generally hovered just below Alabama, Tennessee, and an emerging LSU up until WWII.  After the war, Tulane falls off, replaced by Georgia and Georgia Tech, the latter of which became the clear dominant team in the mid-1950s.  Mississippi, which was a clear bottom-feeder in the Southern Conference caps off a slow ascent and becomes the top program in the conference in the late 1950s and early 60s when Alabama takes over.      It is at this point that Georgia Tech and Tulane leave the conference; Tech still very competitive (Tulane not as much).  It is also at this point that Kentucky, Vandy, and Mississippi State set up shop as the bottom programs in the conference, a distinction they will maintain through most of the remaining history of the conference.     Alabama remains the dominant team of the 70s and early 80s when the retirement of Bear Bryant marks the beginning of their decline as a program (although still good enough to grab an MNC for Gene Stallings in 1992).  During Bama's decline, Florida, Ole Miss, and Georgia rise until the early 1990s when Florida and Tennessee pull ahead of the rest of the conference where they will stay for about a decade.  South Carolina and Arkansas join the conference at this time, staying firmly middle-of-the-pack throughout their history.   As we all know, Alabama has re-emerged as the dominant team in the conference over the last half decade, during which time A&M and Missouri join the conference, also shoring up the middle of the conference.   The best ever single season for the SEC was the 1971 Alabama team and 1975 marked the pinnacle of the Alabama program, although another few strong years from Nick Saban might get the most recent incarnation of the Tide in the same rarefied air.   ACC (preceded by the same Southern Conference)   For the first three decades in the history of the ACC, refer to the first chart in the SEC section above.  Trust me, they're in there.  After the SEC splits, the Southern Conference becomes a little easier to digest.     You'll note that at the time of the SEC split, the top programs in the Southern Conference were most of the ones that left, with the notable exception of Mississippi State.  In the vacuum left by the SEC schools, Duke and UNC rose quickly, and in particular Duke (yes, Duke) was the dominant force in the Southern Conference up until the ACC formed in 1953.  Schools were added to the conference in the wake of the SEC split including Wake Forest and then Virginia left after 1937 only to return after the ACC formation.  Once again, the newly formed conference split from the poorer performers as Davidson, Richmond, Virginia Tech, the Citadel, VMI and Furman, many of whom had been added with Wake Forest back in the late 1930s.   Compared to the other 'Power 5' conferences, the ACC has easily the least auspicious beginnings.  Maryland emerges as the first dominant team in the ACC but falls off quickly and then the conference slides into a pretty mediocre state.  Duke, NC State, and UNC all take turns as the "top" program in the conference but by 1970 (the year South Carolina leaves and goes independent) the ACC has more teams with below average MAVs than above average.  If I were to tell you in 1970 that between the ACC and SWC one conference was going to collapse and the other was going to become one of the five elite conferences in college football, I think most people would have put their money on the ACC for the collapse.  But the conference made some very strategic moves that the SWC didn't make. Like ...     ... making wise expansion choices.  The ACC initially added Georgia Tech in 1983.  Georgia Tech was not immediately a big player in the conference and Maryland, UNC, and Clemson all made big improvements in play in the late 70s and early 80s.  Then everybody except Clemson fell off and the conference started looking pretty mediocre again until they scored Florida State who would thoroughly dominate the ACC from 1992 until their next expansion move in 2004.  This move was the first of two death blows the ACC landed on the Big East, grabbing Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC.  This immediately added two teams that would become mainstays at the top of the conference, even if Miami would never replicate their Big East success.  Then they ACC landed the second blow, adding Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse.  Combined with Duke and Wake showing some improvement of late making the bottom of the conference not look so atrocious, the ACC is now a clear "Power 5," even if arguably the weakest.   The best ever ACC team was the 1993 Florida State team.   B1G   The Big 10 began with seven teams in 1896 (shown below back to 1892 because the data was there) -- Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and U of Chicago.  Indiana and Iowa joined in 1899 and Ohio State in 1912, giving the league ten actual teams until Chicago left in 1939.  The chart below shows the conference for this era.  The conference was pretty equitable during its first 5 decades with Purdue and Minnesota dominating the 1890s, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Chicago the 1900s, Minnesota the 1910s, Michigan the 1920s, and Minnesota, Purdue, Ohio State and even Northwestern all vying for supremacy during the Depression.  Only Indiana never really maintained a competitive program at any point of the conference's early years.  Clearly, by WWII, the University of Chicago was struggling to remain competitive.   The 1940 Michigan and Minnesota teams edge out the 1917 Minnesota team as the best single-season teams during this era.     Once Chicago drops, the Big 10 had nine teams for 14 years until Michigan State was added in 1953.  It's not only the modern Big 10 that can't seem to maintain the correct number of teams.    After WWII, Michigan has the first extended era of dominance from 1942 through 1952.  Parity reigned again through most of the 50s and 60s with Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue all staking a claim to the top program in the conference during the period.  Once again, Indiana is really the only program never to get consistently into the upper echelon during this period.      By 1970, several Big 10 programs have taken severe downturns, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and most notably Northwestern which goes from a MAV of 15 in 1962 to -10 by 1980, about where the U of Chicago was when they dropped out of the conference 40 years before.  In a trend of one- or two-team dominance that is noticeable in most of the major conferences in the 1970s (Texas and Arkansas in the SWC, Oklahoma and Nebraska in the Big 8, Alabama in the SEC, USC in the PAC-10), the Big 10 is dominated by Michigan and Ohio State throughout the decade.  The 1947 Michigan team, 1973 Ohio State team, and 1944 Ohio State team were the best of the era.   Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan, come down to the pack a little in the 1980s as Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State improve.  In the 90s, the conference becomes a three-headed monster with the admittance of Penn State in 1993 (making the Big 10 eleven), the resurgence of Ohio State, and continued elite play of Michigan throughout the decade.  The new millennia sees Penn State decline leaving Ohio State and Michigan at the top.  Michigan finally starts to decline in the late 2000s, replaced by Penn State and Wisconsin as Ohio State's primary competition over the last decade.  Wisconsin's resurgence in the 1990s is stark, going from bottom-dwellers (with Northwestern) in 1990 to top-tier status in two decades.  During this time, Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, and of course Indiana are never particularly competitive.   Also during this time, the conference adds Nebraska (2011), Maryland (2014), and Rutgers (2014).  Only Nebraska is above average since joining.  The 1994 Penn State team is the top team of the era.     Big East and the Eastern Independents   The Big East started as a basketball conference in the 1979 but in 1991 became a football conference.  The conference was formed from the Big East basketball schools that played D1-A football (BC, Syracuse, and Pitt) and from a number of other eastern independents (Miami, WVU, Rutgers, VaTech, and Temple).  Notre Dame, while never football member of the Big East, is included here because they were among the eastern independents from which the conference was born and played in the conference in other sports.  Army and Navy are also included in these charts for any years where they weren't parts of other conferences (e.g., Army in CUSA starting in 1998)     The conference was immediately dominated by Miami, coming into the conference at their zenith.  Lou Holtz had Notre Dame riding high at this point as well.  By 2000, Miami had come down a little and Syracuse and Virginia Tech emerged as serious contenders.  Then in 2004, the Big East's two bellwethers at the time, Miami and Virginia Tech left for the ACC, followed by Boston College the following year.  Those schools were replaced by UConn (a Big East basketball school moving up to play D1-A football), and Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida from CUSA, but the death spiral had begun.  WVU emerged as the class of the conference during these final years before leaving for the Big XII-II after the 2011 season.  Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville leave for the ACC the following year and the conference folds.   The 2001 Miami team was the best single season in Big East history.   Prior to the formation of the Big East, most of the eastern schools, particularly in the north and mid-Atlantic where the ACC and SEC didn't have a footprint, played as independents.  In some respects they were in a de facto conference as most of these schools played each other on a yearly basis, or nearly so, but they never officially formed.  Not until the Big East.   The military academies and Penn State had SRS numbers dating back to the 1890s.  Army is the dominant team in these early years, followed by Pitt and Notre Dame starting around 1915.  Knute Rockne had Notre Dame as the dominant force in the northeast during the 1920s and early 30s when Pitt emerges again just before WWII.  The war drives Pitt into a prolonged funk that lasts until they recruit Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino but launches Notre Dame and the military academies, particularly Army, to stratospheric heights.     After the war, Notre Dame and the academies come back to Earth (albeit Notre Dame more slowly) and by 1960 the northeast is lacking in many good programs.  Syracuse and Penn State are the best of a tepid lot.  Rutgers, as always, is terrible at this time.  Then in the late 1960s, Ara Parseghian returns Notre Dame to elite status while Penn State, Pitt, and Florida State all emerge by 1980 into serious national contenders.   The 1943 Notre Dame team was the greatest team of the Independent era and arguably the best of all time.  I'm not sure why Notre Dame got so much talent during the war when so many other non-military academy schools struggled, but alas they did.   SBC/CUSA   The Sun Belt, much like her other "mid-major" brethren, has been turned over, almost entirely by the ACC/Big East/AAC/CUSA/WAC upheaval of the last few years, and so their chart is also a bit of a mess.  The SBC was created in 1976 but didn't become a D1-A/FBS conference until the 2001 season. with Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, North Texas, Idaho, and Louisiana-Monroe as the founding football members.  Utah State and Troy joined in the following two years.  Then the shuffling started.   In 2005, Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State left to join the WAC after the MWC pilfered the WAC to replace TCU, Utah, and BYU.  The Sun Belt adds Floridas Atlantic and International, then Western Kentucky in 2009.  Eight years later, the SBC sheds MTSU, FIU, FAU, and UNT when all leave to go to CUSA after the AAC forms with mostly CUSA teams.  Western Kentucky follows suit a year later.  New Mexico State and Idaho return after the WAC collapses and are joined by Texas State, Appalachian State, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State during the 2013-2014 seasons, most of whom playing their first FBS football.   So the chart below has all of these teams, plus the teams that are still remaining in the current version of CUSA.  It is a mess.  Make what you will of it ...     MAC   And last but not least, we take a look at the history of MACtion.  The MAC was formed in 1946 and became a D1-A conference in 1962 with Ohio, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Toledo, Kent State, Bowling Green, and Marshall and the seven initial members.  Marshall was booted after the 1969 season then Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State and Northern Illinois were all added between 1971-1975.  During most of this time, the conference was led by Miami, interrupted by a brief meteoric rise and fall of Toledo around 1970.   After 1980, the conference as a whole started a slow decline with no program having a better than average MAV from 1982 until 1997.  During this time Central Michigan, Bowling Green, and Miami all vied for the top spot in the conference.  Northern Illinois left after the 1985 season, replaced by Akron in 1992.  Then in 1997, Northern Illinois and Marshall returned, with Marshall immediately becoming the top team in the conference until the left again to go to CUSA in 2005.  Buffalo was added in 1998.  The conference then had brief experiments with Central Florida, Temple, and Massachusetts from 2000-2015, during which time conference play improved and NIU, CMU, and Toledo emerged as the top conference teams.   The best ever MAC program was the Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami Red Hawks in 2003.  

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

A Historical Perspective of College Football (Part 1 -- TCU-centric)

If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.   Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football SRS scores have been calculated throughout most of the whole history of college football, even back into the 1890's in some cases.   This first post will look at the conferences that TCU has been a part of.  The next post will look at the rest of college football.  We'll start the same way we started the basketball post, by looking at the Texas colleges   Texas Schools Here is the history of Texas college football teams going back to 1903, when the first SRS scores for Texas, A&M, and TCU were calculated.  According to the SRS metric, the 1947 Texas team is the best team in the history of the state while the Longhorns of the early 1970s was the best program.  The 1955 Horned Frogs were the best TCU team by the SRS metric, followed closely by the 1938 MNC team and the 2014 team.  Also note that other than the Houston Cougars of the early 1970s, those late 1950's Frogs were the best program in the history of the state that didn't wear burnt orange.     Acknowledging that this is a busy chart, we break up this history into 3 eras.  The first couple of decades of the 20th century were dominated by Texas and A&M, but things start getting a little more competitive around the time the Great Depression hits:     There have only been 3 significant eras in which Texas was not the dominant team in the state.  The first two, from 1930-1940 and from 1956-1961, were dominated by the Horned Frogs.  World War II was bad for every Texas team, except the Longhorns, the only school whose moving SRS trended up during the war.  Another interesting trend is that the performance of the private schools seems to be pretty closely correlated during this time.  While TCU tended to peak higher than the others, when TCU was good, SMU, Rice, and to a lesser extent, Baylor (they got good in the '50s, not so much in the '30s) were also good.  When TCU was bad, all the private schools tended to be bad.   Then comes the protracted dismal mediocrity of TCU football leading up to the dissolution of the SWC ...     This period of time shows most of the third era not dominated by UT, the Sherrill/Slocum A&M years which emerge from the precipitous decline of SMU after the death penalty and the wild oscillations of Houston, caught in a morbid cycle of cheating and draconian punishment.  We'll talk a little more about the collapse of the SWC in the next section.   Then we have the post-SWC years:     This era is notable for the slow and steady rise of the Frogs, the bottoming out and then rapid ascent of Baylor, and then the emergence of perhaps a 4th era of non-Longhorn dominance with Baylor, TCU, and A&M outperforming Texas over the last 3-4 years.   SWC Again, since the SWC was pretty much the same schools as above, sans UTEP, UNT, and Texas State, avec Arkansas, and Tech and Houston only appear after they joined, respectively, this will look similar to the above chart.     Perhaps the thing that stands out the most to me is the fact that Arkansas was a non-factor in the conference until 1960 or so.  And they had fallen off significantly from their early 80s high before they left for the SEC in 1992.  Which indicates that it wasn't the move to the SEC that hurt the Hogs; they had been sliding toward mediocrity for the better part of the decade prior.   The next chart shows the early years.  The short tenures of the Oklahoma schools are included, but not Southwestern's sole year as a member.  SMU was added as Oklahoma left and TCU was added as Oklahoma State (nee Oklahoma A&M) left.  Not surprisingly, the AP MNC teams (1939 A&M and 1938 TCU) were the best teams of this era.     Next we see the true heyday of the conference, from the end of WWII through the early 1960's.  From 1947-1961 (and if you ignore Tech who struggled for a number of years after being admitted to the SWC, you can expand the time frame out to 1968), not a single program in the conference had a below average 5-year MAV.  By the end of this heyday, Texas and Arkansas had clearly separated from the rest of the conference and the other schools were all in states of relative decline, but until the late 1960's, every program in the conference was better than most.  Despite the parity during these years, Texas was the dominant program throughout, save for the brief era of Frog predominance in the late 50s -- the seven best individual seasons during this time were all by the Longhorns, the best being the 1947 team.     Then we come to the end.  If you take a snapshot of the early 80s, the conference still looks pretty salty.  Texas and Arkansas have come back to the pack a little bit but are still very good.  Jackie Sherrill has begun to make A&M relevant, Houston comes into the league immediately competitive, and SMU gets really good.  Of course, in hindsight, we know why this all happened ... A&M, Houston, and SMU were all blatantly cheating.  But setting that aside, the SWC circa 1980 is still a damn fine football conference.   But then things go bad quickly.  A&M, Houston, and SMU all get hit with NCAA sanctions and fall precipitously.  Texas and Arkansas continue to slide.  Then Arkansas bolts to the SEC.  Houston miraculously starts getting good again, then gets busted for cheating again, and then gets really bad very quickly.     A few notes about the 1984 TCU team.  A common mythology about the Wacker-led Frogs is that the team was on the verge of ascendancy before the NCAA levied the "Living Death Penalty" on the Frogs in 1985.  However, based on the SRS metric at least, there isn't a lot of evidence to support either an emerging Frog powerhouse or a sharp decline after the sanctions hit.  The 1984 team was the beneficiary of a particularly weak conference that year.  TCU had an SRS around 6 (i.e., the Frogs were about 6 points better, on average, than an average college football team), which is good, especially compared to the teams immediately before and after, but not spectacular.  The teams with higher SRS that season, SMU, Arkansas, and Texas, were all only a few points higher than the Frogs that year.  And when looking at the 5-year MAV, the Frogs had climbed a little from their late 1970s low, but the program was remarkably and consistently mediocre from 1979 through the end of the conference, staying between an SRS of 0 to -5.  Compare the Frog's MAV to Houston's over the same time period.  Cougar fans could reasonably argue that they suffered two "Living Death Penalties" over a 15-year period, with two performance declines that followed NCAA sanctions that rivaled the decline SMU suffered after the Actual Death Penalty.   Which leads to another point.  At the time when the conference collapsed, there were four teams with above average MAVs and four teams with below average MAVs.  All politics aside, it was the four above average teams that were invited to the Big 12 and the four below average teams that were left behind.  In some alternate universe, if Houston had not suffered the severe NCAA sanctions imposed during the Jenkins era and had remained at least above average for the remaining half-decade, would the Cougars have bumped Baylor or Tech as the fourth invitee to the Big 12?  Houston never had the political clout that Baylor had, and probably not even the clout Tech had, but would the legislature have felt pressure to get the other state school invited?  Enough to get five Texas teams invited to the Big 12?  Or would that have caused Nebraska to blow the whole merger up before it started?  If Houston had stayed good, would there have been a Big 12?   All told, the SWC at the time of the collapse was an awfully mediocre football conference.  Probably more on par with the MWC conference we played in (perhaps not even as strong at the top as that conference, but probably not quite as weak at the bottom either) than with the current slate of "Power 5" conferences.   But of course, that alternate universe is not ours.  In ours, the Frogs then joined the ...   WAC/MWC (preceded by the Rocky Mountain/Mountain States Athletic/Skyline Conference)   As was the case with the basketball charts, the WAC/MWC chart is a holy mess of schools across multiple conferences.  Since I was primarily interested in the dynastic strength of programs over time more than a rigorous history of conference membership, I thought it more interesting to look at programs across conferences.  So forgive the messiness ...   The first chart shows the conference around the time of TCU's inclusion.     As we entered, BYU was still king with an emergent Colorado State and Air Force.  And you can see right off the bat why the "Gang of 5" might have been less than enthused about the teams added to their conference.  Rice, TCU, SMU, Tulsa, San Jose, and UNLV all come in in 1996 as well below average teams; of the members prior to that season, only the soon-to-be abandoned UTEP was as bad as the six new teams.  The MWC splits after the 1998 season, leaving all the new additions behind and Urban Meyer's Utes begin to ascend, topped off by the best ever WAC/MWC team in 2004.  Boise joins the WAC after we leave in 2000, becoming with Fresno, the only good WAC programs for much of the 2000s.   TCU joins the MWC in 2005 and the conference quickly becomes the three-headed Hydra monster of TCU, Utah, and BYU.  A declining Fresno leaves Boise as the only good team in the WAC and they join the MWC after Utah and BYU bolt in 2011.  The WAC folds as a football conference after the 2012 season and the MWC is left with a declining Boise, and a sharply ascendant Utah State and San Diego State.   The next chart shows the WAC prior to the failed 16-team experiment.  This conference started out as the Rocky Mountain Conference and included Colorado, Colorado College, Colorado School of Mines, Denver, and Utah State.  The Colorado schools were all pretty dominant in the early days of the conference but began to decline rapidly as World War II approached and were not invited to the Mountain States/Skyline Conference when it formed in 1938.  Utah had the first period of dominance in the early Depression era.  BYU was surprisingly uncompetitive and remained so all the way into the early 1970s.     After WWII, Colorado leaves and joins the then Big 7 and is replaced by Montana.  In 1963, the WAC was formed, leaving out Montana, Denver, and Utah State and adding New Mexico, Arizona, and Arizona State.  ASU is one of, if not the, dominant program in the conference (bumping Wyoming's decade-long run of relative dominance) until they and Arizona leave for the PAC 10 after the 1977 season.  UTEP joins in 1968, and after the Arizona schools leave, San Diego State, Hawaii, and Air Force join in consecutive years.  At this point, BYU emerges as the dominant program.   CUSA/AAC   Ever so briefly, the Frogs were in Conference USA.  CUSA was formed the year after the SWC dissolved, with Houston landing there while the rest of the SWC rejects went to the WAC.  Many of the founding members of CUSA were playing as football independents prior to forming the conference, but most had spent some time in the Missouri Valley Conference at some point.  A lot of teams have come in and out of CUSA and most of the original members are now in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) which formed after the dissolution of the Big East as a football conference.  In the chart below, the schools shown after the formation of the AAC are a hodge-podge of teams currently in both conferences, but I didn't include many of the WAC and Sun Belt teams that moved to CUSA after the AAC split.  The chart is busy enough already, and those teams are accounted for in Part 2.     When the conference formed, USM, ECU, Louisville, and Memphis all enter having been consistently average over the previous decade.  Cincinnati had been pretty bad in the early 1990s but had pulled themselves up to nearly average by the time the CUSA formed.  Tulsa, who had largely been in league with these other schools, went to the WAC initially, but joined CUSA with SMU and Rice after they defected from the WAC.   The first decade of CUSA was dominated buy Southern Miss.  Tulane was bad at the outset of the conference, but became competitive in quickly with the Shaun King-led undefeated 1998 team, then quickly faded back into mediocrity.  Louisville was becoming ascendant just as they left to join the Big East, culminating with the best ever CUSA season in 2004.  The ascendant Louisville years coincide with TCU's brief tenure in the conference, and USM, Louisville, and TCU all battled for conference supremacy in the early 2000, but all three programs were far from world-beaters at the time with SRS MAVs around 5.   In 2005, the conference underwent a wholesale change of members as Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF went to the Big East, TCU went to the Mountain West, and Army went Independent.  Tulsa, SMU, Rice, and UTEP came over from the WAC; UCF joined, and Marshall moved from the MAC.  From this point, the conference has seen the emergence of Houston, Tulsa, and UCF.   The next chart shows the history of most of the founding members of CUSA before starting the conference.  This history includes a very incomplete history of some of the Missouri Valley teams that showed up on their schedules often throughout their histories.     Of all the CUSA founders, Tulsa has been playing "big time" college football the longest, dating back to their inclusion in the Missouri Valley prior to the Great Depression.  At that time the conference included former SWC outcast Oklahoma State/A&M and schools like Grinnell, Creighton, Drake, and Washington(Mo).  Tulsa largely dominated these early years.  As many of these schools began to drop down in classification and Oklahoma State left to join the Big 8, Cincinnati and North Texas appear in the mid 1950s followed by Memphis, USM, Louisville and New Mexico State in the 1960s.  Tulane leaves the SEC and starts playing many of these schools in 1966 and East Carolina appears in 1977.  Memphis was the strongest team of the group during the 1960s.  The 70s saw Memphis, Tulane, and ECU battling for supremacy and the 80s saw the dominance of USM.   Tune in next week when we talk about the Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II and the rest of college football.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016-2017 TCU Basketball In Perspective

In a Numbers Make Me Horned first, we're going to turn away from college football and DUSHEE (although not team performance metrics) and try to put this most recent TCU basketball season in some perspective.   A running gag among some on this board, there has been a revisionist tendency by some to elevate the Billy Tubbs years as putting TCU among the elite programs in the country.  It was, by some measures, the pinnacle of TCU basketball, challenged only by the brief run of success had by the Killer Frogs of the mid-1980s.  But that pinnacle consisted of a single NCAA tournament bid, followed by an unceremonious 1st round exit at the hands of a 12-seed Florida State team, and two NIT bids.   The Frogs have made the NCAA tournament seven times (1952, 1953, 1959, 1968, 1971, 1987, and 1998), but four of those times were in the 1950's and 60's, when the NCAA tournament was arguably less prestigious than the NIT. The 1953, 1968 and 1971 teams were 16-9, 15-11 and 15-12, respectively.   This season was the Frogs' seventh NIT bid (1983, 1986, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2017).   Then there were all the years in between.  Since 1950, the Frogs have had 19 seasons of single digit wins   So how special was the 2017 Frogs NIT run in the program's history?  How does it compare to the other teams in the conference and in the state?  Just how dismal has TCU basketball been otherwise?   To assess this, I went to College Basketball Reference and used their SRS metric (Simple Rating System), which uses a similar approach as DUSHEE, to plot team performance as a function of time.  SRS, like DUSHEE, provides a relative performance compared to an average team (SRS = 0).  College Basketball reference only has SRS calculated back to the 1949-1950 season.    Then, in addition to a marker for each team's performance in a given year, I plotted a 5-year moving average (MAV) for each team as an indicator of program strength during the time the senior class was at the school.  Thus the MAV value in a given year, say 2000, is the average SRS score of the 1995-1996, 1996-1997,1997-1998, 1998-1999, and 1999-2000 seasons.  By following the MAV curve, you can qualitatively assess when a program is ascendant, declining, or keeping performance level.  Because I'm plotting the MAV in the last year of the 5-year envelope, it will often appear that the MAV is lagging the actual year-to-year performance.   Texas Schools:   This plot is the collective basketball history of most of the Texas D-1 schools since 1950, the bold purple line showing TCU's MAV.  From 1955 until 1984, TCU was a below average D-1 program during that three decade period.  For a 5-year stretch in the late 1970's, TCU and Rice needed binoculars to be able to see the rest of the state; and the rest of the state, particularly outside of Houston and UTEP, wasn't all that spectacular.  That's just how bad TCU was during that stretch.   But the Frogs did become sharply ascendant during the end of that period, becoming solidly middle-of-the-pack in the state in the late 1980s (Jamie Dixon's tenure as a player) before a slow decline through the mid-1990s.  Then Tubbs made the program sharply ascendant again, briefly challenging Tom Penders' UT teams as the best program in the state before another steady decline into another decade of mediocrity from 2005-2015.   But if you look at the tip of that peak during the Tubbs' era, and look for the little purple triangles that mark the year-to-year SRS scores for TCU around that peak, you can see that the peak is largely driven by one single year, the 1997-1998 NCAA team.  Based on the SRS metric, that team had the highest score of any team in the state from 1985 forward, and behind only the 1968 and 1983 Houston teams since 1950.  Also note that this past season's TCU team has the second highest SRS score of any TCU team, the only other TCU team to exceed a single season SRS over 15.   Houston and UTEP dominated the state from the mid-1960s until almost the mid-1990s, when Texas became the most consistently high-performing team in the conference, which it held until about 2012.  SMU showed some early dominance in the 1950s and Baylor has emerged the top power in the state over the last few years.   Southwest Conference:   This chart has a lot of the same data as the previous chart, but includes only the SWC teams for the years in which the teams were actually in the conference.  So Tech arrives in 1961, Houston doesn't arrive until 1977, and Arkansas, which wasn't included in the previous figure, disappears after 1992, four years before everybody else disappears.  Perhaps the most interesting thing to note here is how awful a basketball conference the SWC was during most of the 1960s and 1970s.  From 1968-1973, there was not a single SWC program with an above-average SRS 5-year MAV.  And even into the 1980s, only the addition of Houston and the ascendancy of Nolan Richardson's Hogs made the conference look halfway respectable.  Arkansas left on a very high note; its 1990-1991 team had, by far, the highest SRS score (27.3) in the conference from 1950 on.   WAC/MWC:   As we all remember, after the demise of the SWC, we joined the new and "improved" 16-team WAC, which shortly after we joined broke apart into the MWC and the Leftovers WAC.  This hybrid chart shows all the teams that were in the WAC prior to the MWC split and then the teams that joined the WAC after the split; thus after 1998, this chart shows all the teams in both conferences.  Thus TCU shows up twice, from 1996-1997 through 2000-2001 as a part of the WAC, and then from 2005-2006 through 2011-2012 as a part of the MWC.  The "WAC Folds" line marks when the WAC ceased to exist as a football conference; I recognize that the WAC still has life as a basketball conference, but a man only has so much time to account for so many basketball teams.  Note that during this time, while Utah, Tulsa, BYU, UNLV, UNM, and Fresno all vied for the best program in these conferences, the 1997-1998 TCU team has the highest single season SRS score.  In fact, even if you take the WAC back to it's predecessor days (next chart), that TCU team had the highest SRS in conference history, dating back to 1950.  Higher than Rick Majerus', Keith Van Horn-led, Final Four Utes, higher than Bill Self's best Tulsa team.     Conference USA/American Athletic:   This chart, like the WAC/MWC one, shows multiple related conferences on one chart; the teams that formed the original CUSA, the core of which formed the eventual American Athletic Conference, leaving behind a gutted and transformed CUSA.  I didn't try to add all the new teams in the modern CUSA.  This conference was always dominated by three teams, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis.  TCU was already on the way down from their 1998 peak and was never really a factor in this conference.   Big 7/8/XII/XII-II:   Our current home.  TCU and Tech have battled for the cellar of the Big XII-II throughout our short time in the conference, but both teams appear to be sharply ascendant.  This chart goes a long way to show just how good a basketball conference this is right now.  Going back to the very first chart with all the Texas teams and the current TCU program is squarely middle-of-the-pack. In the Big XII-II, we are, by this metric, the worst team in the conference, and with Tech, the two worst programs by a significant margin.   The other interesting thing to note, going back historically, is that from 1950 to 1980 or so, while Kansas was (with Kansas State) the best program in the conference, it was only by nature of a fairly weak conference.  Kansas really didn't become a true national power (by the SRS metric, at least) until it and (Billy Tubbs-led) Oklahoma began to rise in the late-1980s.  Then, unlike Oklahoma, Kansas has stayed at an elite level over the better part of the last three decades.  No one has really come close to Kansas' supremacy since OU's decline in the early-1990s.   The best ever Big XII team based on SRS?  The 1987-1988 Oklahoma team coached by one Billy Tubbs.  The SRS metric seems to really like Billy, Chuck ...   Completing TCU's basketball journey to date, let's take a look at some of the other major conferences' histories.   Big East:   I figured I'd start with our coach's old conference, to give a sense of what he and Ben Howland did with the Pitt program prior to coming to TCU.  The Big East formed as a basketball conference beginning with the 1979-1980 season with members from a number of other conferences.  At the time of its formation, Notre Dame (which didn't actually join the conference until a few years later), Syracuse, and Georgetown were the top teams until the mid-1990s.  At that point, UConn became and remained the top program in the conference until about 2005 when a bunch of teams, including Pitt (bold blue line), Louisville, Villanova, and WVU all reached about the same consistent level until the football schools all left the Big East after the 2012-2013 season.  Aside from a brief rise from 1985-1990, Pitt basketball had not been anything other than a pretty average program, and sometimes terrible (around 1970).   PAC 12:   Those John Wooden UCLA teams were pretty good.   SEC:   The late-2000s Florida team is the only program to be able to say it was clearly better than Kentucky over the last seven decades.   ACC:   The ACC started out as kinda a crappy basketball conference.  From 1970 on, however, pretty salty.   B1G:   Perhaps the most evenly competitive of all the major conferences. Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin , and even Purdue have all had at least a brief claim to be the best program in the conference.  Only Northwestern has been consistently mediocre over the last seven decades.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

DUSHEE Bowl Preview

This season, to prepare for the bowls, I'm expanding on a bit I did two years ago and looking at the predictive capability of my scrappy little model.  So we're going to look at what DUSHEE says compared to Vegas bookies, Jeff Sagarin, and ESPN's FPI ranking.    ESPN's FPI results in a number that is very comparable to DUSHEE; it is a point total relative to an average FBS team.  Sagarin's system scale is different; the best team in the country is generally around a 100, but the difference in two teams' scores is effectively the point spread between the two teams.   For 28 of the 39 bowl games, DUSHEE, Sagarin, FPI and Vegas come to a unanimous consensus about the favorite, although there can be considerable variation among the four as to the point spread.   Since there are two formulations for DUSHEE, 1) the original which looks solely at point and yardage margins compared to how the other teams compared against the same opponent, and 2) the revised which deemphasizes statistical outliers and emphasizes strength-of-schedule, I'll provide numbers for both formulations and the average of the two to see how well each of the three predict outcomes.   First, we'll start with the bowl our readers probably care about the most ... the Cactus Bowl.   Liberty Bowl   Just kidding.  The Liberty Bowl is one of the 11 bowl games where the 4 predictors do not come to a consensus and is one of two where the lack of consensus comes from the Vegas bookies.  Here are the numbers for the two teams:   Team Record    DO    DR Sag FPI SoS Georgia  7-5 1.51 2.18 73.19 7.40 0.73 TCU  6-6 3.55 5.03 74.53 10.10 1.16   In the following table and all of the ones that follow, DO means DUSHEE Original Formulation, DR is DUSHEE Revised, DA is the average of the two DUSHEE models, Sag is Sagarin and FPI is, well, FPI.  Ignore the sign in front of the number; it is just used to account for which of the two teams is the favorite.   DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI TCU  -2.04 TCU  -2.85 TCU  -2.44 Georgia  1 TCU  -1.34 TCU  -2.7   The "computer" models all agree that the Frogs are a slight favorite with Sagarin at roughly 1.5-points and DUSHEE Revised at almost 3-points.  However, Vegas, at the moment, has the Dawgs as a 1-point favorite.  As we will see, the agreement between the models (a range of less than 4-points between all of the predictors) is quite tight compared to some of the other games.   New Years Six   Orange: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Florida St.  9-3 15.99 21.43 87.35 21.50 5.55 Michigan  10-2 32.77 36.95 99.74 27.80 3.18 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Michigan  -16.79 Michigan  -15.52 Michigan  -16.15 Michigan  -6.5 Michigan  -12.39 Michigan  -6.3   The models are unanimous that Michigan is the favorite, but DUSHEE and Sagarin think Michigan is a significantly larger favorite than either Vegas or the FPI does.   Peach: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Alabama  13-0 37.11 45.21 105.37 31.70 6.77 Washington  12-1 24.52 26.25 97.89 26.10 -0.22 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Alabama  12.60 Alabama  18.96 Alabama  15.78 Alabama  16.5 Alabama  7.48 Alabama  5.6   In this case, DUSHEE and Vegas are on the same page, placing Alabama as a 2TD+ favorite, but Sagarin and the FPI have the game at a TD or less.   Fiesta: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Clemson  12-1 25.65 30.08 94.50 25.80 3.99 Ohio St.  11-1 34.82 40.78 102.06 28.10 5.37 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Ohio St.  -9.17 Ohio St.  -10.71 Ohio St.  -9.94 Ohio St.  -3 Ohio St.  -7.56 Ohio St.  -2.3   Like the Orange Bowl, DUSHEE and Sagarin agree that Ohio State is a 7-10 point favorite but Vegas and the FPI have the game around a field goal.   Cotton: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS W. Michigan  13-0 17.94 15.09 84.62 13.00 -5.60 Wisconsin  10-3 17.82 22.13 90.62 17.80 5.14 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI W. Michigan  0.12 Wisconsin  -7.04 Wisconsin  -3.46 Wisconsin  -7.5 Wisconsin  -6.00 Wisconsin  -4.8   The Cotton Bowl illuminates the difference between the two DUSHEE formulations.  Western Michigan and Wisconsin have the biggest strength-of-schedule disparity of any two bowl opponents.  Original DUSHEE, which does account for strength of schedule but does not emphasize it to the degree that Revised DUSHEE does, has Western Michigan as an ever-so-slight favorite.  Revised DUSHEE, Sagarin, and Vegas all have Wisconsin at about a TD favorite, with the FPI putting the game a little closer.  This will be an interesting game to see play out.   Rose: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Penn St.  11-2 16.69 19.59 91.97 18.00 3.37 USC  9-3 16.41 21.29 90.65 20.30 4.99 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Penn St.  0.28 USC  -1.70 USC  -0.71 USC  -7 Penn St.  1.32 USC  -2.3   The Rose is another interesting case in that all the models have the game as a near toss-up except for Vegas which has the Trojans as a TD favorite.  It is conceivable that bettors are giving USC a home-field advantage boost which would account for some of the disparity, but even with the 3-points, Vegas likes USC more than any of the computer models do.   Sugar: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Auburn  8-4 17.54 21.16 84.64 20.10 6.32 Oklahoma  10-2 19.23 22.39 90.29 21.90 2.66 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Oklahoma  -1.70 Oklahoma  -1.24 Oklahoma  -1.47 Oklahoma  -5.5 Oklahoma  -5.65 Oklahoma  -1.8   DUSHEE and the FPI have Oklahoma as a slight favorite, Vegas and Sagarin like them a little more.   Other Big XII-II and Bowls   Aside from TCU and Oklahoma, four other conference mates managed to become bowl eligible. Three are unanimous underdogs in their matchups.   Cactus: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Baylor  6-6 1.91 3.06 67.00 7.40 -0.54 Boise St.  10-2 13.25 12.41 79.05 11.00 -2.08 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Boise St.  -11.34 Boise St.  -9.35 Boise St.  -10.35 Boise St.  -7.5 Boise St.  -12.05 Boise St.  -3.6   Only the FPI has this game within a touchdown and both DUSHEE and Sagarin think the Broncos are at least two-score (as in football scores, not Gettysburg Address scores) favorites.  Given Baylors' nose dive at the end of the season, it seems like the Broncos are a safe bet, if you are a betting man.   Russell Athletic: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Miami (FL)  8-4 11.98 12.17 82.72 16.00 1.63 West Virginia  10-2 10.05 11.40 82.25 14.10 1.13 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Miami (FL)  1.92 Miami (FL)  0.77 Miami (FL)  1.35 Miami (FL)  3 Miami (FL)  0.47 Miami (FL)  1.9   The models are all unanimous in favor of the Hurricanes, but they are also unanimous that this is a close matchup.  Vegas has the largest spread at 3-points and all the models are within 2.5 points.   Texas: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Texas A&M  8-4 5.81 8.65 81.03 16.20 4.16 Kansas St.  8-4 4.90 4.69 81.36 11.30 0.31 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Texas A&M  0.91 Texas A&M  3.96 Texas A&M  2.44 Texas A&M  2 Kansas St.  -0.33 Texas A&M  4.9   This should also be a tight game with the FPI giving the Aggies a 5-point advantage and Sagarin giving the Fighting Snyders a not-quite-half-point advantage.  Vegas splits the difference at a 2-point Agricultural spread.   Alamo: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Colorado  10-3 16.06 20.77 89.05 16.30 6.14 Oklahoma St.  9-3 6.72 7.81 82.93 15.40 1.62 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Colorado  -9.34 Colorado  -12.96 Colorado  -11.15 Colorado  -3 Colorado  -6.12 Colorado  -0.9   All of the models are unanimous about Colorado in the sequel to the epic Bram Kohlhausen show of last year.  However, DUSHEE was pretty down on Oklahoma State this year in comparison to other models.  While most models had OSU easily in the Top-25, DUSHEE had the Cowboys at 33 and 32.  DUSHEE dinged the Pokes for below average performances against Central Michigan, Baylor, Kansas, and Oklahoma, with that Baylor loss in week 4 looking worse and worse as the season went along.  Thus, DUSHEE has Colorado as a double-digit favorite while the other models all have Colorado between a 1-to-6 point favorite.   Other Bowls of Texas Note   Las Vegas: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Houston  9-3 14.19 15.71 81.10 10.60 -0.45 San Diego St.  10-3 8.40 4.69 72.07 6.30 -6.44 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Houston  5.79 Houston  11.02 Houston  8.41 Houston  3.5 Houston  9.03 Houston  4.3   The models are unanimous for Houston with Vegas being the least enthusiastic about their chances.  A big discrepancy in Strength-of-Schedule between these two teams which means Revised DUSHEE likes Houston even more than Original DUSHEE which litkes the Cougars a lot more than Vegas or the FPI.  Sagarin and the DUSHEE Average are about on the same page for Houston.    Armed Forces: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Navy  9-3 6.54 7.67 73.73 4.80 1.50 Louisiana Tech  8-4 7.69 4.24 67.27 3.60 -5.39 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Louisiana Tech  -1.15 Navy  3.43 Navy  1.14 Louisiana Tech  -3.5 Navy  6.46 Navy  1.2   Another big Strength-of-Schedule disparity probably is the cause of such a mixed bag of predictions here with Original DUSHEE and Vegas leaning toward Terry Bradshaw's alma mater and Revised DUSHEE and everyone else leaning toward Roger Dodger's alma mater.   Heart of Dallas: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Army  7-5 -0.89 -5.12 63.12 -1.80 -5.40 North Texas  5-7 -15.64 -19.55 50.84 -15.40 -3.93 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Army  14.75 Army  14.44 Army  14.59 Army  10 Army  12.28 Army  13.6   No one thinks this will be a close game, not because Army is a juggernaut but because North Texas is a ridiculous bowl team.  All 4 computer models have North Texas as the worst team playing in a bowl, edging out 6-7 Hawaii and miles from anybody else.  Regardless of method, all agree that the Mean Green are on the order of two touchdowns WORSE than and AVERAGE FBS team.  And Army is about an average FBS team.  Again I wonder if bettors are giving UNT a home-field boost playing a county away from home.   Sun: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Stanford  9-3 6.68 9.14 84.15 14.40 3.41 North Carolina  8-4 3.52 4.99 78.74 14.10 1.93 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Stanford  3.17 Stanford  4.14 Stanford  3.65 Stanford  3.5 Stanford  5.41 Stanford  0.3   Everyone likes Stanford in the bowl that gives a warm feeling in the heart of any TCU fan over the age of 40.  Sagarin likes the Trees the most, FPI the least.  Only 5 points separate any of the predictions.   Independence: Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS N.C. State  6-6 5.44 9.42 74.72 7.40 4.80 Vanderbilt  6-6 -2.18 -0.62 72.15 5.70 2.69 DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI N.C. State  7.62 N.C. State  10.03 N.C. State  8.82 N.C. State  4 N.C. State  2.57 N.C. State  1.7   Yes, I know that this game is neither in Texas nor includes a Texas team, but it is right across the border.  It involves two mediocre teams from good conferences and everyone agrees that Philip Rivers' alma mater is slightly less mediocre than the Fightin' Robber Barons of Nashville.  This a game where DUSHEE likes a team far more than the others.   All the Others   All the rest of the that I haven't discussed to this point are captured in the table below.     DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav D Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI New Mexico Albuquerque, NM New Mexico  -4.05 New Mexico  -4.07 New Mexico  -4.06 New Mexico  -7 New Mexico  -5.40 New Mexico  -6.4 Camelia Montgomery, AL Toledo  -4.81 Toledo  -7.25 Toledo  -6.03 Appalachian State 1 Toledo  -0.52 Toledo  -0.5 Cure Orlando, FL UCF  2.05 UCF  6.12 UCF  4.09 UCF  6 UCF  4.64 UCF  4.6 New Orleans New Oleans, LA Southern Miss  6.38 Southern Miss  8.16 Southern Miss  7.27 Southern Miss  3.5 LA Lafayette  -1.15 Southern Miss  4.6 Miami Beach Miami, FL Tulsa  -12.79 Tulsa  -14.39 Tulsa  -13.59 Tulsa  -11.5 Tulsa  -19.98 Tulsa  -9.2 Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL West. Kentucky  11.38 West. Kentucky  10.71 West. Kentucky  11.05 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  1.03 West. Kentucky  3.9 Poinsettia San Diego, Ca BYU  4.83 BYU  3.80 BYU  4.31 BYU  9 BYU  11.68 BYU  13.2 Potato Boise, ID Colorado St.  -12.59 Colorado St.  -17.19 Colorado St.  -14.89 Colorado St.  -13.5 Colorado St.  -10.48 Colorado St.  -9.2 Bahamas Nassau, BA Old Dominion -6.41 Old Dominion -2.31 Old Dominion -4.36 Old Dominion -4 Old Dominion -6.65 Old Dominion -5.4 Dollar General Mobile, AL Troy  9.11 Troy  10.11 Troy  9.61 Troy  3.5 Troy  3.11 Troy  5.3 Hawai'i Honolulu, HI Middle Tenn. St.  -10.04 Middle Tenn. St.  -8.13 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.09     Middle Tenn. St.  -2.28 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.7 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, FL Mississippi St.  4.60 Mississippi St.  11.44 Mississippi St.  8.02 Mississippi St.  13 Mississippi St.  13.41 Mississippi St.  16.0 Quick Lane Detroit, MI Maryland  2.32 Maryland  2.72 Maryland  2.52 Maryland  1 Maryland  1.63 Maryland  0.2 Military Annapolis, MD Temple  21.26 Temple  19.57 Temple  20.42 Temple  13 Temple  15.81 Temple  8.8 Holiday San Diego, Ca Washington St.  -16.00 Washington St.  -18.64 Washington St.  -17.32 Washington St.  -6.5 Washington St.  -6.45 Washington St.  -8.7 Pinstripe New York, NY Northwestern  -0.68 Northwestern  -1.44 Northwestern  -1.06 Pittsburgh  5.5 Pittsburgh  3.43 Pittsburgh  5.3 Foster Farms Santa Clara, CA Utah  -3.20 Utah  -4.60 Utah  -3.90 Utah  -8 Utah  -9.32 Utah  -9.8 Birmingham Birmingham, AL South Florida  -18.35 South Florida  -17.60 South Florida  -17.98 South Florida  -10.5 South Florida  -15.02 South Florida  -10.1 Belk Charlotte, NC Virginia Tech  -11.39 Virginia Tech  -7.61 Virginia Tech  -9.50 Virginia Tech  -7 Virginia Tech  -6.78 Virginia Tech  -6.6 Music City Nashville, TN Tennessee  -0.49 Tennessee  -2.16 Tennessee  -1.32 Tennessee  -3 Nebraska  0.76 Tennessee  -7.2 Arizona Tucson, AZ Air Force  11.83 Air Force  13.75 Air Force  12.79 Air Force  13.5 Air Force  15.13 Air Force  12.4 Citrus Orlando, FL Louisville  5.67 Louisville  0.43 Louisville  3.05 LSU  -3.5 LSU  -2.57 Louisville  0.6 TaxSlayer Jacksonville, FL Georgia Tech  0.46 Kentucky  -2.04 Kentucky  -0.79 Georgia Tech  3.5 Georgia Tech  6.70 Georgia Tech  3.8   A few notes on these games:   1) I'm not sure why, but there is no Vegas line for the Middle Tennessee - Hawaii game.   2) There are a few games where DUSHEE is in noticeable disagreement with the other predictors/models.  DUSHEE likes Toledo in the Camellia, Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton, Troy in the Dollar General (new candidate for top-5 worst Bowl Sponsor Names), and Washington State in the Holiday a lot more than the others.  DUSHEE likes Northwestern in the Pinstripe when the others all have Pitt as a 3.5-point or greater favorite.  Revised DUSHEE is the only model that likes Kentucky over Georgia Tech.  And DUSHEE is significantly less favorable toward Utah against Indiana than the others.  Northwestern and Western Kentucky were arguably the biggest DUSHEE WTF teams of the year so it is not surprising that DUSHEE favors them more than the others.  DUSHEE has also been noticeably undersold on Pitt this season.   3) DUSHEE does not encourage gambling, but if one were inclined to make wagers based on the advice of DUSHEE, he would steer you toward Washington State (-6.5) against Minnesota in the Holiday, Michigan (-6.5) against Florida State in the Orange, Colorado (-3) against Oklahoma State in the Alamo, South Florida (-10.5) against South Carolina in the Birmingham, and Toledo (+1) against Appalachian State in the Camellia.   4) DUSHEE's highest confidence picks are Temple, South Florida, Washington State, Michigan and Alabama.  Lowest confidence picks are USC, Kentucky, Northwestern, Navy, and Tennessee.   So there you have it everybody.  After the bowls are over, we'll come back to this and see how DUSHEE fared.  Two seasons ago, DUSHEE did pretty well.  Last year, I petered out before bowl season and never kept track.   Correction: Where's the Outback Bowl, mate?   As Newbomb so astutely pointed out, I totally missed the Outback Bowl between Florida and Iowa.  And it turns out, the numbers for this game are notable.   Team Record DO DR Sag FPI SoS Florida 8-4 6.59 7.58 79.58 12.60 1.96 Iowa 8-4 6.77 7.58 84.01 12.60 1.30

  DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav D Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag FPI Fav DFPI Iowa -0.18 Iowa 0.00 Iowa -0.09 Florida 2.5 Iowa -4.43 Even 0.0   DUSHEE Original, DUSHEE Revised, and FPI all could not have this game more even.  You have to go out to the FIFTH decimal place in Revised DUSHEE to give Iowa the edge.  The FPI listing only goes to one decimal place.  Sagarin likes Iowa by 4.5, Vegas likes Florida by 2.5.  This game couldn't be more of a coin flip and becomes the new lowest DUSHEE confidence pick.  Which of course probably means that it will be a blowout.

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

 

2016 Final Regular Season DUSHEE Rankings Dump

This is just a dump of all the final DUSHEE rankings now that Army-Navy has officially ended the regular season.  This will be followed up with the DUSHEE Bowl Preview.   DUSHEE Original Formulation   Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Michigan  33.79 210.81 32.77 4 Clemson  23.54 204.90 25.65 5 Louisville  20.30 248.74 25.62 6 Washington  26.04 147.28 24.52 7 LSU  17.29 173.34 19.95 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 9 West. Kentucky  19.39 126.58 19.08 10 W. Michigan  19.12 107.02 17.94 11 Wisconsin  18.54 112.35 17.82 12 Auburn  18.55 106.46 17.54 13 Penn St.  17.41 104.65 16.69 14 USC  14.19 142.95 16.41 15 Colorado  15.09 123.54 16.06 16 Florida St.  12.33 159.87 15.99 17 Washington St.  16.34 104.22 15.96 18 Temple  12.69 130.96 14.83 19 Houston  13.63 105.05 14.19 20 Boise St.  12.66 99.10 13.25 21 Toledo  10.61 116.26 12.72 22 Miami (FL)  12.94 69.02 11.98 23 Virginia Tech  11.30 86.12 11.72 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 25 Tulsa  7.01 84.20 8.77 26 San Diego St.  7.85 65.22 8.40 27 Appalachian State 7.81 55.76 7.91 28 Memphis  11.13 5.78 7.70 29 Louisiana Tech  7.59 54.09 7.69 30 Iowa  11.22 -14.52 6.77 31 South Florida  9.15 13.83 6.77 32 Colorado St.  6.43 50.25 6.73 33 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 34 Stanford  8.40 22.27 6.68 35 Florida  6.22 50.26 6.59 36 Navy  7.74 28.47 6.54 37 Northwestern  7.67 23.90 6.28 38 Notre Dame  4.43 59.09 5.82 39 Texas A&M  9.33 -8.40 5.81 40 Pittsburgh  8.60 -2.92 5.59 41 Air Force  4.16 56.34 5.51 42 Troy  6.49 24.34 5.51 43 N.C. State  2.39 79.18 5.44 44 BYU  7.21 11.47 5.36 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 46 Tennessee  7.72 -21.93 4.08 47 Nebraska  3.73 22.85 3.59 48 Utah  4.20 15.84 3.57 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 50 North Carolina  3.79 20.41 3.52 51 Mississippi  2.46 33.08 3.25 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 53 Old Dominion 1.14 34.93 2.46 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 55 Michigan St.  -1.06 48.02 1.63 56 Georgia  -0.16 33.34 1.51 57 UCF  4.33 -30.22 1.42 58 Northern Illinois  0.61 4.64 0.63 59 Wyoming  3.31 -34.49 0.53 60 Indiana  -3.47 55.20 0.37 61 Arkansas  -0.56 14.27 0.32 62 Minnesota  3.14 -44.01 -0.05 63 Georgia Tech  2.43 -34.87 -0.08 64 Southern Miss  -5.86 74.75 -0.27 65 Mississippi St.  -0.13 -8.09 -0.48 66 Kentucky  -1.34 7.32 -0.54 67 Arkansas St.  0.87 -24.78 -0.63 68 Army  -2.98 22.61 -0.89 69 UCLA  -1.69 -4.30 -1.33 70 California  -2.87 11.71 -1.34 71 Vanderbilt  1.29 -62.50 -2.18 72 New Mexico  -3.71 4.12 -2.27 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 75 Ohio  -3.34 -28.27 -3.60 76 East. Michigan  -5.68 -3.38 -3.95 77 Cent. Michigan  -5.24 -10.85 -4.02 78 Utah St.  -5.82 -7.02 -4.22 79 Middle Tenn. St.  -4.79 -22.45 -4.28 80 Oregon St.  -3.47 -46.52 -4.57 81 Oregon  -5.42 -24.08 -4.78 82 Miami (OH)  -5.19 -33.47 -5.09 83 Duke  -5.32 -40.38 -5.51 84 Idaho  -4.23 -62.72 -5.87 85 Missouri  -7.08 -25.08 -5.94 86 South Alabama -5.29 -57.34 -6.31 87 UT-San Antonio -3.28 -85.12 -6.32 88 Wake Forest  -5.25 -60.38 -6.43 89 LA Lafayette  -6.91 -42.08 -6.65 90 SMU  -8.50 -26.90 -6.97 91 Maryland  -5.76 -67.76 -7.13 92 Georgia Southern -5.28 -74.85 -7.16 93 Ball St.  -9.09 -46.05 -8.30 94 Cincinnati  -8.96 -48.04 -8.30 95 Tulane  -8.06 -67.08 -8.63 96 Boston Coll.  -10.46 -51.17 -9.46 97 East Carolina  -14.51 -16.38 -10.47 98 Arizona  -12.41 -48.05 -10.61 99 Kent St.  -10.01 -83.53 -10.73 100 Virginia  -10.55 -83.73 -11.10 101 Georgia State -11.85 -73.42 -11.47 102 South Carolina  -9.05 -114.22 -11.58 103 Arizona St.  -7.98 -129.18 -11.60 104 Syracuse  -12.99 -67.27 -11.93 105 Akron  -9.96 -111.31 -12.05 106 Bowling Green  -14.75 -64.20 -12.96 107 UNLV  -13.77 -78.93 -13.02 108 Nevada  -12.19 -121.52 -14.03 109 San Jose St.  -15.25 -79.76 -14.04 110 Hawaii  -14.93 -89.87 -14.32 111 Florida Intl.  -16.06 -98.19 -15.48 112 North Texas  -13.34 -138.82 -15.64 113 Purdue  -17.46 -86.33 -15.83 114 Illinois  -15.30 -123.95 -16.22 115 UNC-Charlotte -16.75 -113.41 -16.68 116 New Mexico St.  -16.92 -113.40 -16.79 117 UTEP  -18.70 -118.20 -18.21 118 Fresno St.  -19.01 -118.17 -18.41 119 Connecticut  -18.46 -129.58 -18.60 120 Marshall  -17.94 -154.97 -19.49 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53 122 Massachusetts -18.29 -151.10 -19.54 123 Rice  -18.37 -162.05 -20.12 124 Buffalo  -21.14 -137.72 -20.79 125 LA Monroe  -20.41 -148.34 -20.82 126 Florida Atlantic  -20.01 -164.67 -21.34 127 Rutgers  -21.33 -171.67 -22.56 128 Texas St. -30.67 -232.72 -31.76   Original Form. By Conference   18 Temple  12.69 130.96 14.83 19 Houston  13.63 105.05 14.19 25 Tulsa  7.01 84.20 8.77 28 Memphis  11.13 5.78 7.70 31 South Florida  9.15 13.83 6.77 36 Navy  7.74 28.47 6.54 57 UCF  4.33 -30.22 1.42 90 SMU  -8.50 -26.90 -6.97 94 Cincinnati  -8.96 -48.04 -8.30 95 Tulane  -8.06 -67.08 -8.63 97 East Carolina  -14.51 -16.38 -10.47 119 Connecticut  -18.46 -129.58 -18.60 4 Clemson  23.54 204.90 25.65 5 Louisville  20.30 248.74 25.62 16 Florida St.  12.33 159.87 15.99 22 Miami (FL)  12.94 69.02 11.98 23 Virginia Tech  11.30 86.12 11.72 40 Pittsburgh  8.60 -2.92 5.59 43 N.C. State  2.39 79.18 5.44 50 North Carolina  3.79 20.41 3.52 63 Georgia Tech  2.43 -34.87 -0.08 83 Duke  -5.32 -40.38 -5.51 88 Wake Forest  -5.25 -60.38 -6.43 96 Boston Coll.  -10.46 -51.17 -9.46 100 Virginia  -10.55 -83.73 -11.10 104 Syracuse  -12.99 -67.27 -11.93 2 Ohio St.  34.18 247.63 34.82 3 Michigan  33.79 210.81 32.77 11 Wisconsin  18.54 112.35 17.82 13 Penn St.  17.41 104.65 16.69 30 Iowa  11.22 -14.52 6.77 37 Northwestern  7.67 23.90 6.28 47 Nebraska  3.73 22.85 3.59 55 Michigan St.  -1.06 48.02 1.63 60 Indiana  -3.47 55.20 0.37 62 Minnesota  3.14 -44.01 -0.05 91 Maryland  -5.76 -67.76 -7.13 113 Purdue  -17.46 -86.33 -15.83 114 Illinois  -15.30 -123.95 -16.22 127 Rutgers  -21.33 -171.67 -22.56 8 Oklahoma  18.17 146.45 19.23 24 West Virginia  9.68 74.16 10.05 33 Oklahoma St.  7.75 31.94 6.72 45 Kansas St.  8.26 -12.39 4.90 49 TCU  2.22 42.59 3.55 52 Texas  0.04 51.32 2.52 54 Baylor  -0.97 52.61 1.91 73 Iowa St.  -2.89 -23.98 -3.09 74 Texas Tech  -3.51 -18.69 -3.25 121 Kansas  -20.46 -121.27 -19.53 9 West. Kentucky  19.39 126.58 19.08 29 Louisiana Tech  7.59 54.09 7.69 53 Old Dominion 1.14 34.93 2.46 64 Southern Miss  -5.86 74.75 -0.27 79 Middle Tenn. St.  -4.79 -22.45 -4.28 87 UT-San Antonio -3.28 -85.12 -6.32 111 Florida Intl.  -16.06 -98.19 -15.48 112 North Texas  -13.34 -138.82 -15.64 115 UNC-Charlotte -16.75 -113.41 -16.68 117 UTEP  -18.70 -118.20 -18.21 120 Marshall  -17.94 -154.97 -19.49 123 Rice  -18.37 -162.05 -20.12 126 Florida Atlantic  -20.01 -164.67 -21.34 38 Notre Dame  4.43 59.09 5.82 44 BYU  7.21 11.47 5.36 68 Army  -2.98 22.61 -0.89 122 Massachusetts -18.29 -151.10 -19.54 10 W. Michigan  19.12 107.02 17.94 21 Toledo  10.61 116.26 12.72 58 Northern Illinois  0.61 4.64 0.63 75 Ohio  -3.34 -28.27 -3.60 76 East. Michigan  -5.68 -3.38 -3.95 77 Cent. Michigan  -5.24 -10.85 -4.02 82 Miami (OH)  -5.19 -33.47 -5.09 93 Ball St.  -9.09 -46.05 -8.30 99 Kent St.  -10.01 -83.53 -10.73 105 Akron  -9.96 -111.31 -12.05 106 Bowling Green  -14.75 -64.20 -12.96 124 Buffalo  -21.14 -137.72 -20.79 20 Boise St.  12.66 99.10 13.25 26 San Diego St.  7.85 65.22 8.40 32 Colorado St.  6.43 50.25 6.73 41 Air Force  4.16 56.34 5.51 59 Wyoming  3.31 -34.49 0.53 72 New Mexico  -3.71 4.12 -2.27 78 Utah St.  -5.82 -7.02 -4.22 107 UNLV  -13.77 -78.93 -13.02 108 Nevada  -12.19 -121.52 -14.03 109 San Jose St.  -15.25 -79.76 -14.04 110 Hawaii  -14.93 -89.87 -14.32 118 Fresno St.  -19.01 -118.17 -18.41 6 Washington  26.04 147.28 24.52 14 USC  14.19 142.95 16.41 15 Colorado  15.09 123.54 16.06 17 Washington St.  16.34 104.22 15.96 34 Stanford  8.40 22.27 6.68 48 Utah  4.20 15.84 3.57 69 UCLA  -1.69 -4.30 -1.33 70 California  -2.87 11.71 -1.34 80 Oregon St.  -3.47 -46.52 -4.57 81 Oregon  -5.42 -24.08 -4.78 98 Arizona  -12.41 -48.05 -10.61 103 Arizona St.  -7.98 -129.18 -11.60 27 Appalachian State 7.81 55.76 7.91 42 Troy  6.49 24.34 5.51 67 Arkansas St.  0.87 -24.78 -0.63 84 Idaho  -4.23 -62.72 -5.87 86 South Alabama -5.29 -57.34 -6.31 89 LA Lafayette  -6.91 -42.08 -6.65 92 Georgia Southern -5.28 -74.85 -7.16 101 Georgia State -11.85 -73.42 -11.47 116 New Mexico St.  -16.92 -113.40 -16.79 125 LA Monroe  -20.41 -148.34 -20.82 128 Texas St. -30.67 -232.72 -31.76 1 Alabama  35.60 275.44 37.11 7 LSU  17.29 173.34 19.95 12 Auburn  18.55 106.46 17.54 35 Florida  6.22 50.26 6.59 39 Texas A&M  9.33 -8.40 5.81 46 Tennessee  7.72 -21.93 4.08 51 Mississippi  2.46 33.08 3.25 56 Georgia  -0.16 33.34 1.51 61 Arkansas  -0.56 14.27 0.32 65 Mississippi St.  -0.13 -8.09 -0.48 66 Kentucky  -1.34 7.32 -0.54 71 Vanderbilt  1.29 -62.50 -2.18 85 Missouri  -7.08 -25.08 -5.94 102 South Carolina  -9.05 -114.22 -11.58   DUSHEE Revised Formulation   1 Alabama  42.57 291.87 45.21 2 Ohio St.  39.66 248.78 40.78 3 Michigan  37.06 212.47 36.95 4 Clemson  27.44 204.40 30.08 5 Louisville  18.62 258.27 27.30 6 LSU  25.48 171.50 26.87 7 Washington  26.13 153.14 26.25 8 Oklahoma  20.79 148.09 22.39 9 Wisconsin  23.72 109.64 22.13 10 Florida St.  18.13 162.15 21.43 11 USC  19.41 144.81 21.29 12 Auburn  24.50 83.70 21.16 13 Colorado  21.01 117.38 20.77 14 Penn St.  20.82 99.06 19.59 15 Washington St.  17.55 105.73 17.79 16 West. Kentucky  15.25 123.58 17.29 17 Houston  13.70 114.14 15.71 18 W. Michigan  13.46 106.21 15.09 19 Temple  10.16 128.05 14.15 20 Virginia Tech  12.46 89.05 13.44 21 Boise St.  10.41 94.84 12.41 22 Miami (FL)  14.14 47.66 12.17 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.40 24 Toledo  6.97 112.51 11.13 25 Northwestern  11.80 27.29 9.44 26 N.C. State  7.11 81.12 9.42 27 Mississippi  11.48 30.21 9.39 28 Tulsa  6.48 84.88 9.21 29 Stanford  11.85 21.43 9.14 30 Texas A&M  13.45 -5.55 8.65 31 Pittsburgh  12.31 -3.67 8.00 32 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 33 Navy  9.07 28.15 7.67 34 Iowa  12.59 -14.02 7.58 35 Florida  8.25 36.12 7.58 36 Colorado St.  6.26 59.00 7.57 37 Notre Dame  6.46 52.72 7.34 38 Tennessee  11.94 -20.70 6.77 39 Michigan St.  5.34 53.00 6.62 40 Memphis  10.22 -4.09 6.58 41 Arkansas  5.77 34.29 5.82 42 South Florida  8.26 -0.55 5.47 43 BYU  6.93 8.40 5.11 44 TCU  2.87 54.13 5.03 45 North Carolina  5.69 20.79 4.99 46 Utah  5.49 18.25 4.71 47 San Diego St.  1.50 63.96 4.69 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 49 Nebraska  4.25 30.78 4.61 50 Louisiana Tech  2.28 47.14 4.24 51 Appalachian State 0.64 59.84 3.88 52 Texas  0.75 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.49 3.06 54 Kentucky  2.25 25.29 2.96 55 Air Force  0.63 43.32 2.91 56 Mississippi St.  4.29 -6.72 2.47 57 Georgia  0.98 26.51 2.18 58 Troy  0.68 16.85 1.42 59 Wyoming  4.48 -29.13 1.31 60 Georgia Tech  4.55 -36.71 0.92 61 Northern Illinois  -0.67 22.79 0.87 62 UCLA  0.98 3.45 0.85 63 UCF  4.97 -43.07 0.83 64 California  0.47 6.18 0.67 65 Indiana  -4.58 54.86 0.11 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.73 -0.34 67 Vanderbilt  4.18 -59.02 -0.62 68 Minnesota  2.56 -44.37 -0.85 69 Oregon St.  2.43 -42.94 -0.86 70 Oregon  -0.09 -26.27 -1.57 71 Old Dominion -6.36 34.91 -2.23 72 Duke  -0.22 -38.89 -2.39 73 Utah St.  -3.92 -6.49 -2.99 74 Southern Miss  -11.62 74.88 -3.43 75 Iowa St.  -2.95 -37.89 -4.15 76 East. Michigan  -7.03 2.58 -4.54 77 Army  -9.16 17.12 -5.12 78 Cent. Michigan  -6.84 -10.79 -5.18 79 Arkansas St.  -6.07 -21.58 -5.29 80 Missouri  -6.11 -22.41 -5.37 81 Wake Forest  -2.91 -60.40 -5.42 82 SMU  -6.22 -27.95 -5.75 83 Maryland  -2.60 -80.10 -6.35 84 Arizona  -7.13 -47.29 -7.48 85 New Mexico  -11.03 -5.42 -7.66 86 Cincinnati  -8.12 -49.63 -8.27 87 Kent St.  -7.75 -58.59 -8.54 88 Ohio  -10.48 -29.49 -8.68 89 Miami (OH)  -10.46 -34.46 -8.96 90 Syracuse  -7.28 -71.78 -8.99 91 Boston Coll.  -9.77 -44.37 -9.07 92 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.40 -15.61 -9.17 93 Tulane  -8.45 -68.48 -9.58 94 Idaho  -8.83 -64.76 -9.62 95 Arizona St.  -3.23 -131.40 -9.72 96 Georgia Southern -7.96 -76.98 -9.74 97 East Carolina  -14.08 -16.22 -10.32 98 Virginia  -8.94 -78.15 -10.46 99 South Alabama -11.36 -56.69 -10.84 100 Ball St.  -13.36 -44.86 -11.50 101 LA Lafayette  -13.78 -41.67 -11.59 102 UT-San Antonio -9.38 -95.05 -11.73 103 South Carolina  -8.56 -111.33 -12.13 104 Bowling Green  -14.25 -57.97 -12.84 105 Illinois  -10.57 -124.54 -14.22 106 Akron  -12.23 -105.98 -14.26 107 Georgia State -15.72 -67.42 -14.37 108 Purdue  -16.54 -76.50 -15.44 109 UNLV  -17.56 -77.63 -16.18 110 San Jose St.  -17.46 -80.51 -16.28 111 Hawaii  -17.90 -93.06 -17.30 112 Kansas  -16.11 -120.33 -17.67 113 Rutgers  -12.81 -167.29 -18.18 114 North Texas  -17.38 -138.22 -19.55 115 Florida Intl.  -22.26 -89.92 -20.02 116 UNC-Charlotte -21.21 -104.58 -20.16 117 Fresno St.  -20.29 -116.72 -20.25 118 Connecticut  -19.36 -130.53 -20.43 119 New Mexico St.  -22.07 -113.61 -21.26 120 Nevada  -20.66 -131.18 -21.33 121 Massachusetts -21.19 -151.36 -22.85 122 LA Monroe  -23.01 -141.00 -23.46 123 UTEP  -26.42 -116.01 -24.30 124 Marshall  -21.75 -175.67 -24.62 125 Rice  -22.48 -178.83 -25.29 126 Buffalo  -26.78 -140.34 -25.94 127 Florida Atlantic  -25.61 -169.95 -26.87 128 Texas St. -34.29 -230.61 -36.15   By Conference   Rank Team PD YD Score 17 Houston  13.70 114.14 15.71 19 Temple  10.16 128.05 14.15 28 Tulsa  6.48 84.88 9.21 33 Navy  9.07 28.15 7.67 40 Memphis  10.22 -4.09 6.58 42 South Florida  8.26 -0.55 5.47 63 UCF  4.97 -43.07 0.83 82 SMU  -6.22 -27.95 -5.75 86 Cincinnati  -8.12 -49.63 -8.27 93 Tulane  -8.45 -68.48 -9.58 97 East Carolina  -14.08 -16.22 -10.32 118 Connecticut  -19.36 -130.53 -20.43 4 Clemson  27.44 204.40 30.08 5 Louisville  18.62 258.27 27.30 10 Florida St.  18.13 162.15 21.43 20 Virginia Tech  12.46 89.05 13.44 22 Miami (FL)  14.14 47.66 12.17 26 N.C. State  7.11 81.12 9.42 31 Pittsburgh  12.31 -3.67 8.00 45 North Carolina  5.69 20.79 4.99 60 Georgia Tech  4.55 -36.71 0.92 72 Duke  -0.22 -38.89 -2.39 81 Wake Forest  -2.91 -60.40 -5.42 90 Syracuse  -7.28 -71.78 -8.99 91 Boston Coll.  -9.77 -44.37 -9.07 98 Virginia  -8.94 -78.15 -10.46 2 Ohio St.  39.66 248.78 40.78 3 Michigan  37.06 212.47 36.95 9 Wisconsin  23.72 109.64 22.13 14 Penn St.  20.82 99.06 19.59 25 Northwestern  11.80 27.29 9.44 34 Iowa  12.59 -14.02 7.58 39 Michigan St.  5.34 53.00 6.62 49 Nebraska  4.25 30.78 4.61 65 Indiana  -4.58 54.86 0.11 68 Minnesota  2.56 -44.37 -0.85 83 Maryland  -2.60 -80.10 -6.35 105 Illinois  -10.57 -124.54 -14.22 108 Purdue  -16.54 -76.50 -15.44 113 Rutgers  -12.81 -167.29 -18.18 8 Oklahoma  20.79 148.09 22.39 23 West Virginia  10.81 72.78 11.40 32 Oklahoma St.  9.30 28.00 7.81 44 TCU  2.87 54.13 5.03 48 Kansas St.  8.09 -12.21 4.69 52 Texas  0.75 51.00 3.44 53 Baylor  -0.98 64.49 3.06 66 Texas Tech  0.59 -12.73 -0.34 75 Iowa St.  -2.95 -37.89 -4.15 112 Kansas  -16.11 -120.33 -17.67 16 West. Kentucky  15.25 123.58 17.29 50 Louisiana Tech  2.28 47.14 4.24 71 Old Dominion -6.36 34.91 -2.23 74 Southern Miss  -11.62 74.88 -3.43 92 Middle Tenn. St.  -12.40 -15.61 -9.17 102 UT-San Antonio -9.38 -95.05 -11.73 114 North Texas  -17.38 -138.22 -19.55 115 Florida Intl.  -22.26 -89.92 -20.02 116 UNC-Charlotte -21.21 -104.58 -20.16 123 UTEP  -26.42 -116.01 -24.30 124 Marshall  -21.75 -175.67 -24.62 125 Rice  -22.48 -178.83 -25.29 127 Florida Atlantic  -25.61 -169.95 -26.87 37 Notre Dame  6.46 52.72 7.34 43 BYU  6.93 8.40 5.11 77 Army  -9.16 17.12 -5.12 121 Massachusetts -21.19 -151.36 -22.85 18 W. Michigan  13.46 106.21 15.09 24 Toledo  6.97 112.51 11.13 61 Northern Illinois  -0.67 22.79 0.87 76 East. Michigan  -7.03 2.58 -4.54 78 Cent. Michigan  -6.84 -10.79 -5.18 87 Kent St.  -7.75 -58.59 -8.54 88 Ohio  -10.48 -29.49 -8.68 89 Miami (OH)  -10.46 -34.46 -8.96 100 Ball St.  -13.36 -44.86 -11.50 104 Bowling Green  -14.25 -57.97 -12.84 106 Akron  -12.23 -105.98 -14.26 126 Buffalo  -26.78 -140.34 -25.94 21 Boise St.  10.41 94.84 12.41 36 Colorado St.  6.26 59.00 7.57 47 San Diego St.  1.50 63.96 4.69 55 Air Force  0.63 43.32 2.91 59 Wyoming  4.48 -29.13 1.31 73 Utah St.  -3.92 -6.49 -2.99 85 New Mexico  -11.03 -5.42 -7.66 109 UNLV  -17.56 -77.63 -16.18 110 San Jose St.  -17.46 -80.51 -16.28 111 Hawaii  -17.90 -93.06 -17.30 117 Fresno St.  -20.29 -116.72 -20.25 120 Nevada  -20.66 -131.18 -21.33 7 Washington  26.13 153.14 26.25 11 USC  19.41 144.81 21.29 13 Colorado  21.01 117.38 20.77 15 Washington St.  17.55 105.73 17.79 29 Stanford  11.85 21.43 9.14 46 Utah  5.49 18.25 4.71 62 UCLA  0.98 3.45 0.85 64 California  0.47 6.18 0.67 69 Oregon St.  2.43 -42.94 -0.86 70 Oregon  -0.09 -26.27 -1.57 84 Arizona  -7.13 -47.29 -7.48 95 Arizona St.  -3.23 -131.40 -9.72 51 Appalachian State 0.64 59.84 3.88 58 Troy  0.68 16.85 1.42 79 Arkansas St.  -6.07 -21.58 -5.29 94 Idaho  -8.83 -64.76 -9.62 96 Georgia Southern -7.96 -76.98 -9.74 99 South Alabama -11.36 -56.69 -10.84 101 LA Lafayette  -13.78 -41.67 -11.59 107 Georgia State -15.72 -67.42 -14.37 119 New Mexico St.  -22.07 -113.61 -21.26 122 LA Monroe  -23.01 -141.00 -23.46 128 Texas St. -34.29 -230.61 -36.15 1 Alabama  42.57 291.87 45.21 6 LSU  25.48 171.50 26.87 12 Auburn  24.50 83.70 21.16 27 Mississippi  11.48 30.21 9.39 30 Texas A&M  13.45 -5.55 8.65 35 Florida  8.25 36.12 7.58 38 Tennessee  11.94 -20.70 6.77 41 Arkansas  5.77 34.29 5.82 54 Kentucky  2.25 25.29 2.96 56 Mississippi St.  4.29 -6.72 2.47 57 Georgia  0.98 26.51 2.18 67 Vanderbilt  4.18 -59.02 -0.62 80 Missouri  -6.11 -22.41 -5.37 103 South Carolina  -8.56 -111.33 -12.13   Strength of Schedule   1 Miss 8.74 2 Rut 8.35 3 LSU 8.17 4 Bama 6.77 5 MichSt 6.73 6 Aub 6.32 7 Syr 6.19 8 Col 6.14 9 Ark 5.76 10 OreSt 5.63 11 FSU 5.55 12 OhSt 5.37 13 Ore 5.29 14 Zona 5.16 15 Wisc 5.14 16 USC 4.99 17 NCSU 4.80 18 Duke 4.73 19 Ill 4.72 20 MissSt 4.67 21 ASU 4.44 22 Tenn 4.26 23 Kan 4.24 24 A&M 4.16 25 Nwstern 4.12 26 Clem 3.99 27 Pitt 3.83 28 Cal 3.45 29 Ky 3.42 30 Stan 3.41 31 Mary 3.40 32 PSU 3.37 33 Mich 3.18 34 Vandy 2.69 35 SMU 2.68 36 OU 2.66 37 ND 2.55 38 UCLA 2.39 39 Wake 2.32 40 GaTech 2.23 41 Ttech 2.03 42 Fla 1.96 43 UNC 1.93 44 USU 1.90 45 WSU 1.86 46 Mizz 1.82 47 Uva 1.73 48 ISU 1.71 49 MiaFl 1.63 50 OkSt 1.62 51 Navy 1.50 52 KentSt 1.39 53 Iowa 1.30 54 Utah 1.28 55 TCU 1.16 56 WVU 1.13 57 ECU 0.91 58 Cin 0.82 59 UCF 0.79 60 Wyo 0.75 61 Uga 0.73 62 VaTech 0.68 63 BC 0.64 64 Tex 0.56 65 Pur 0.53 66 SoCar 0.41 67 Neb 0.35 68 KSU 0.31 69 CSU -0.05 70 Mem -0.19 71 Tulsa -0.20 72 Wash -0.22 73 BYU -0.30 74 BGSU -0.42 75 Tulane -0.43 76 Hou -0.45 77 Bay -0.54 78 Minn -0.77 79 USF -0.83 80 Ind -1.16 81 Fres -1.26 82 UNI -1.31 83 Uconn -1.47 84 CMU -1.62 85 L'ville -1.66 86 Boise -2.08 87 Akr -2.23 88 EMU -2.25 89 SJSU -2.33 90 ULaMon -2.49 91 GaSo -2.56 92 Temp -2.62 93 Haw -2.78 94 Umass -2.94 95 Marsh -3.00 96 TexSt -3.44 97 AFA -3.51 98 Tol -3.63 99 UNLV -3.92 100 UNT -3.93 101 Rice -4.00 102 GaSt -4.01 103 WKU -4.06 104 Ball -4.28 105 Char -4.40 106 Ida -4.81 107 NMSU -5.01 108 Buf -5.32 109 MiaOh -5.35 110 LaTech -5.39 111 Army -5.40 112 USM -5.58 113 USA -5.59 114 WMU -5.60 115 UTSA -5.83 116 FAU -5.83 117 Troy -6.02 118 FIU -6.31 119 ArkSt -6.31 120 SDSU -6.44 121 ULaLa -6.84 122 Ohio -7.18 123 UNM -7.34 124 AppSt -7.38 125 UTEP -7.65 126 ODU -7.72 127 Nev -8.01 128 MTSU -8.11

Duquesne Frog

Duquesne Frog

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