No change in the top 6 of this week's DUSHEE, although Ohio State allowing 21 to sadsack Rutgers helped close the gap between them and #2 Clemson to almost 9 points. DUSHEE still has the Buckeyes as the easy favorites to win the NC, but not as easy as they were. The Frogs dropped 3 spots to 28th as DUSHEE had Tech as a pretty mediocre team and the Frogs struggled to beat them. Obviously a win is a win, but in DUSHEE-world, a close loss to a good team is generally rewarded more than a close wi
To make the case that DUSHEE isn't completely out of its god-forsaken mind (the 4-5 Frogs a continue to hang onto the top 25) is that Sagarin still has the Frogs at 31st (26th in his "Predictor" model). Massey has the Frogs 35th.
Why do the computers still like the Frogs so much? Namely strength-of-schedule. DUSHEE has the Frogs with the 16th most difficult schedule in the country. Sagarin has the Frogs with the 8th most difficult schedule. And outside Iowa State, the Frogs hav
In this week's DUSHEE, Ohio State is still two touchdowns better than anybody else in the country. Not much else has changed in the top 15. The big movers this week were Central Michigan and Northern Illinois (up almost 7 points and 28 spots in the ranking after beating NIU by 38, who fell over 5 points) and UAB (down 27 spots after getting blown out by Tennessee).
The Frogs fell four more spots to 23 (yep, still in the top 25), a spot ahead of SMU and 3 spots behind our next oppon
I know by the calamitous rancor that dominated these pages over the last week that everyone is super upset I didn't post DUSHEE last week. Apologies, but last week was my first week at a new job and things were a little busy. And I'm trying to get off on a good foot, so spending 15 minutes to post a blog on a college football fan site seemed like it might be a bad idea. So this comes at you from home ...
DUSHEE is still a fan of the Frogs, who come in at 20 after defeating the Hor
At about the mid-point in the season, DUSHEE is very high on the top of the B1G, with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State filling 3 of the top 4 spots in the ranking. And DUSHEE is still super high on the Big XII-II, with WTF teams Iowa State (5) and TCU (15) still absurdly high in the rankings, the Frogs using the bye to climb 3 spots.
Here are the Frogs at this point ...
Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU
The B1G holds the top two spots as Ohio State remains #1 and Wisconsin leaps two spots to #2. The Frogs had the largest drop in Score (-16.0), falling from 9 to 18. Since no one is in much of a mood to bullshit about college football, we'll get right to it.
Not surprisingly, the Frogs performance at Iowa State sucked.
Opp: @ Pur SMU Kan | @ ISU
PD: 16.00 15.40 34.25 | -8.67
Well, so, as is the case every year, I always need to present this first ranking with the traditional caveat, and the need for this caveat is exemplified by the two teams facing off in Ames, Iowa on Saturday. If DUSHEE had anything to say about it, Gameday should ditch Auburn-Florida and camp out at Jack Brice Stadium for a match up of #2 vs. #9. Congratulations, TCU and ISU are the WTF teams of early 2019.
How in the hell is Iowa State, a team that lost (closely) to both Iowa and
The "Extra Crispy" Formula
If you are a regular reader of this blog, you have heard me preach innumerable times that there is nothing mystical about computational models, be they models of college football team performance or models of hurricanes. The only thing that differentiates a "computer" model and a human "gut" feeling is the amount of data used and the amount of bias awareness built in.
So in a previous edition of this blog, we talked about my most recent attempt
It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season. DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done. The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread. And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening line
Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season. Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan. The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season. Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves. Same old, same old. I don't think
Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter. ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton. But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard ri
Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points). It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia. Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team. The biggest mover in the to
A lot of movement in this week's rankings. Alabama now has a 3-point lead on Clemson. Oklahoma has fallen out of the top 4 as Georgia has moved into the 4-slot. Notre Dame has slowly crept up into 7th, and would still be a home underdog to any other teams in the top-4, but are now in a position where another school (Georgia or Oklahoma) isn't totally getting screwed when they get in the CFP. UCF has also climbed into the top 10, just ahead of Fresno as the top ranked Have Not ... last week's
This week we'll bring the Extra Crispy version of DUSHEE back into the mix because the "Group of 5" made a big splash in this week's Original formula. And while I'm reluctant to dismiss unexpected teams that rank highly just because they are unexpected (due perhaps to my own biases), this week's rankings have enough of those teams to give me some pause. Like, say Utah State, who comes in 6th ... yes, 6th ... in this week's Original formula.
Utah State pounded San Jose (effing) Stat
As we've discussed in previous weeks, Alabama and Clemson have been set for some time your clear top 2 (Alabama has retaken the top spot as the two continue to jockey in the rankings). This week, Michigan has begun to separate from the pack as a clear #3 and Oklahoma has now created a little bit of space for itself in #4. Were the season to end today, that is your playoff as far as DUSHEE is concerned.
The Frogs dropped again, despite the win, three spots to 50th. DUSHEE has the F
No movement in the top 4 although Clemson increased its lead over Bama a bit this week and the Frogs fell (only) 4 more spots to 47th, helped by outgaining Kansas by 200 yards despite losing. The largest faller this week in both ranking and score was Baylor, who dropped 26 spots in the ranking to 83rd. The biggest climber this week was Georgia Southern who beat DUSHEE darling Appalachian State and climbed 33 spots to 56th.
The Kansas game looks bad, but maybe
I figure interest in this blog is niche at best, even when the Frogs are playing well. So I assume at this point, I'm just writing this for myself. But nonetheless, for this week's entry in the second saddest diary ever written (allowing that Anne Frank's is probably still a little sadder) ...
Clemson reclaims the top spot in the rankings, but it really is just Clemson, Bama, and the rest of the field at this point. There is an almost 10-point gap between those two teams and 3rd r
Alabama retakes the top spot this week, but the Tide and Clemson have emerged as the clear top 2 with a bunch of B1G teams filling out the rest of the top 5. Yes, two-loss Penn State is still in the top 5, but they did have the second biggest single score drop of the week (Georgia dropped slightly more), falling over 10 points; the way the numbers worked out, however, they just dropped one spot, getting leapt by Michigan.
Oklahoma did very well against the bye, jumping 2 spots and
Since this is late getting out, I'll keep the commentary to a minimum. However, I'll revisit the Tech-TCU matchup because it is an interesting case study as to how the numbers change even when teams do not play. As a teaser, Tech comes out of the bye better than the Frogs do ...
We have a new #1 as Clemson goes past Alabama to claim the top spot.
Top 3 Performances - Week 6
63.47 - Clemson at Wake (+60 MOV, 449 YM)
53.42 - Temple vs. ECU (+43, +274)
This week, DUSHEE has pretty much the same top 6 that everybody else has, although perhaps not in the same order ... Bama, Penn St., Clempson, Ohio St., UGa, and Noater. After that, DUSHEE is still a little crazy with App. St. (they did fall 4 spots) and Kentucky next in line. Our Frogs fell 5 spots to #33.
Top and Bottom Performances of the Week
Now that we are 5 weeks in, we can go back and see what the top and bottom DUSHEE-rated performances of each week were. Keep
So the critical threshold has been crossed ... every FBS team has played at least two other FBS teams, which allows DUSHEE to calculate a score for each team without dividing by zeros or linearly extrapolating single points and other mathematical impossibilities that it doesn't like to do. To no one's surprise, Alabama is #1 by a mile. But this year's inaugural poll comes with the same caveat that every inaugural DUSHEE poll comes with ... just because there is enough data to calculate scores
I was fortunate enough to be able to go to the Masters the year Fred Couples won it, 1992. Being a P.G.A. member at the time, I had become good friends with the McGregor salesman. It just so happens his dad was President of McGregor at the time. Obviously, he went every year.
He told me that if I could pay for the airfare and my meals, everything else was taken care of, meaning motel room and transportation to the course. I could get into the tournament just by showing my P.G.A.
As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads. This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data. Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season. We'll see how motivated I am by then.
In the tables below,