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  • Blog Entries

    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 2
      Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season.  Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan.  The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season.  Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves.  Same old, same old.  I don't think UCF is one of the 4 best teams in the country, but I'd be a hell of a lot more interested in the CFP if they were in the tournament.
       
      But luckily for all you TFH subscribers, you have DUSHEE to keep you keen and interested.
       
      None of the Top 12 moved in the rankings.  The gap tightened between Bama and Clemson, now with less than 3-points separating the top two teams.  NC-State fans can shelter from their Snowmageddon warmed by the solace that they rose the most in the rankings this week, riding their 55-point blowout of East Carolina to an 8-spot and over 4-point rise in DUSHEE to get back into the top 25.  ECU, conversely, experienced the largest drop, falling 10 spots and 4.5 points. 
       
      UConn sealed the bottom spot, almost 10 points worse than New Mexico State.  To give you a sense of how bad UConn was this year, their TOP rated DUSHEE performance all season was in Week 1 in a 39-point loss to UCF.  They earned a -16.15 DUSHEE score for that performance.  And that was as good as they did all year.
       
      TCU's week-to-week hasn't really changed much since I posted their numbers in the Week 13 blog post (Ohio State went up a little, UT and OU went down a little), and Cal's numbers are in the Bowl Preview.
       
      So we'll jump to the Best and Worst Performers.
       
      It is a pretty rare circumstance for the loser of a game to wind up in the top performers for the week, but Georgia did that in earning a 34.15 DUSHEE score while losing to Alabama by a TD.  It is not all that uncommon for a losing team to get a better score than a winning team; generally happening when a bad team keeps a game close against a good team.  I know this is a hard concept for many to wrap their brains around when in the traditional AP poll mindset ... the team that loses must drop!  But the goal of DUSHEE is to measure the relative strength of the teams, so if a good team goes into a game, say, 13 points better than another team, but only beats them by 7, that is an indication that the gap between those two teams isn't as large as was originally thought.  And that is what happened in the Georgia-Alabama game.  Georgia went in as a 13-point underdog (per DUSHEE) against the best team in the country.  They lost to that team by 7 and outgained them by almost 60. 
       
      And that is the big flaw in the AP poll.  When two teams who are close to each other in the rankings play a close game, there is no reason to change their rankings relative to each other.  That is an indication that you had them ranked correctly to begin with.  There is no need to punish the loser by dropping them in the rankings.  Statistically, the teams were about even.  So despite losing, Georgia crept closer to Alabama, closing their gap with the Tide by a little more than 2 points.
       
      Championship Week Top 3 Performers
      55.96 -- NC State vs. ECU (55 MOV, 544 YM)
      34.15 -- Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 MOV, 59 YM)
      29.99 -- Clemson vs. Pitt (32 MOV, 229 YM)
       
      Championship Week Bottom 3 Performers
      -54.55 ECU at NCSU (-55 MOV, -544 YM)
      -24.20 Akron at South Carolina (-25 MOV, -134 YM)
      -20.51 Marshall at VaTech (-21 MOV, 16 YM)
       
      And since we are in year-end mode, let's track down the top and bottom 10 performances for the whole year. 
       
      2018 Season Top 10
      63.66 - Clemson at Wake (60 MOV, 449 YM) (Week 6)
      55.96 - NC State vs. E. Carolina (55 MOV, 544 YM) (Week 14)
      53.97 - Ohio vs. Buffalo (35 MOV, 364 YM) (Week 12)
      53.84 - Oklahoma vs. Fla. Atlantic (49 MOV, 326 YM) (Week 1)
      53.38 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St. (50 MOV, 208 YM) (Week 2)
      52.38 - Alabama at Mississippi (55 MOV, 269 YM) (Week 3)
      51.54 - Michigan vs. Penn St. (35 MOV, 219 YM) (Week 10)
      51.43 - Mississippi vs. La-Monroe (49 MOV, 399 YM) (Week 6)
      51.42 - Alabama vs. Missouri (29 MOV, 352 YM) (Week 7)
      50.54 - Clemson vs. Ga. Southern (31 MOV, 455 YM) (Week 3)
       
      2018 Season Bottom 10
      -62.98 UNLV vs. New Mexico (-36 MOV, -336 YM) (Week 6)
      -59.78 La-Monroe at Mississippi (-49 MOV, -399 YM) (Week 6)
      -58.71 UConn at E. Carolina (-34 MOV, -383 YM) (Week 12)
      -57.87 UConn at Boise St. (-55 MOV, -629 YM) (Week 2)
      -57.81 Liberty at Auburn (-53 MOV, -397 YM) (Week 12)
      -57.46 Old Dominion at Liberty (-42 MOV, -290) (Week 1)
      -56.58 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) (Week 13)
      -54.55 E. Carolina at NC State (-55 MOV, -544 YM) (Week 14)
      -53.82 Texas St. at Rutgers (-28 MOV, -247 YM) (Week 1)
      -52.84 Rutgers at Kansas (-41 MOV, -270 YM) (Week 3)
       
      Overall Ratings
      Regular Season Final     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  36.16 265.88 36.99 0 -1.30 2 Clemson  33.17 249.73 34.21 0 0.26 3 Georgia  25.54 185.56 26.02 0 0.91 4 Michigan  21.99 199.80 24.34 0 -0.14 5 Oklahoma  19.62 155.95 20.64 0 -0.41 6 Mississippi St.  18.01 148.26 19.19 0 -0.36 7 Ohio St.  17.57 153.04 19.13 0 0.33 8 UCF  20.28 98.78 18.30 0 -0.20 9 Notre Dame  17.32 113.45 17.04 0 -0.21 10 Missouri  16.75 113.10 16.65 0 -0.53 11 Penn St.  16.80 96.26 15.87 0 -0.35 12 Texas A&M  12.83 143.03 15.48 0 -0.25 13 Boise St.  15.06 108.02 15.27 2 0.13 14 Fresno St.  16.86 83.18 15.27 -1 -0.22 15 West Virginia  15.01 99.66 14.84 2 -0.22 16 Cincinnati  13.53 114.34 14.56 0 -0.58 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 -3 -1.10 18 LSU  14.17 89.52 13.78 0 -0.51 19 Iowa  14.34 83.19 13.59 0 -0.16 20 Washington St.  12.64 105.29 13.53 0 -0.19 21 Utah St.  16.49 50.55 13.44 0 -0.11 22 N.C. State  11.35 95.12 12.17 8 4.15 23 Ohio  12.04 83.43 12.07 0 -0.20 24 Washington  10.97 96.78 12.00 1 0.52 25 Utah  12.05 75.17 11.68 -3 -1.06 26 Temple  11.81 69.03 11.22 -2 -0.66 27 Florida  10.67 71.65 10.59 0 0.01 28 Army  10.30 54.54 9.51 -2 -1.83 29 Miami (FL)  7.45 67.37 8.23 0 -0.09 30 Auburn  9.75 31.94 8.05 -2 -0.49 31 Kentucky  9.24 37.67 7.99 0 0.02 32 North Texas  5.99 62.68 7.03 1 -0.13 33 Purdue  7.40 43.03 7.02 -1 -0.16 34 Texas  7.86 31.00 6.74 1 -0.12 35 Wisconsin  5.05 67.14 6.62 1 -0.16 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 1 -0.63 37 Michigan St.  5.34 52.01 6.08 1 -0.13 38 Syracuse  7.26 24.38 6.02 1 0.22 39 Buffalo  5.67 45.55 5.98 -5 -1.05 40 South Carolina  6.74 21.90 5.55 2 0.20 41 Iowa St.  6.93 17.59 5.47 -1 -0.27 42 Memphis  4.87 35.71 4.98 -1 -0.59 43 Oklahoma St.  4.46 38.56 4.84 0 -0.33 44 Stanford  7.44 -10.58 4.45 1 -0.18 45 Florida Atlantic  0.92 77.85 4.38 1 -0.24 46 BYU  2.80 44.73 4.04 1 -0.27 47 Middle Tenn. St.  3.78 22.12 3.59 3 0.38 48 Oregon  4.30 14.64 3.58 0 -0.19 49 Vanderbilt  5.72 -12.73 3.20 2 0.05 50 Georgia Tech  2.66 27.52 3.10 -1 -0.26 51 Marshall  2.50 27.90 3.02 -7 -1.78 52 Arizona St.  3.57 12.37 2.98 0 -0.14 53 Arkansas St.  1.11 37.01 2.53 0 -0.40 54 Texas Tech  2.39 16.94 2.41 0 -0.19 55 Boston Coll.  4.24 -11.06 2.29 7 0.69 56 Pittsburgh  2.95 5.45 2.23 1 -0.06 57 Nebraska  -0.34 50.34 2.21 -1 -0.15 58 Virginia  2.29 11.10 2.07 5 0.46 59 Air Force  0.49 31.57 1.86 0 -0.12 60 Miami (OH)  2.12 8.06 1.80 -2 -0.35 61 Houston  3.50 -11.79 1.76 -6 -0.69 62 Toledo  3.85 -19.18 1.64 -1 -0.20 63 Southern Miss  -1.42 51.01 1.53 -3 -0.33 64 Maryland  1.99 -3.64 1.15 1 -0.11 65 Minnesota  1.67 -2.49 0.99 -1 -0.29 66 TCU  -0.84 26.43 0.72 0 -0.15 67 Northwestern  2.21 -22.92 0.36 0 -0.45 68 Troy  1.09 -8.41 0.32 0 -0.25 69 Arizona  -3.90 57.62 0.19 0 -0.20 70 Mississippi  -3.37 47.31 0.05 2 -0.05 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 0 -0.12 72 East. Michigan  0.15 -1.70 0.02 -2 -0.18 73 Wyoming  -1.03 4.54 -0.47 0 -0.25 74 USC  -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 0 -0.25 75 San Diego St.  -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 0 -0.23 76 Northern Illinois  -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 3 0.89 77 Nevada  -3.26 9.03 -1.73 -1 -0.27 78 Florida Intl.  -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 -1 -0.18 79 California  -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 -1 -0.18 80 Indiana  -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 1 0.03 81 LA Lafayette  -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 6 0.87 82 UCLA  -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 -2 -0.33 83 W. Michigan  -7.03 31.77 -3.15 0 0.03 84 Duke  -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 -2 -0.27 85 Baylor  -5.51 3.40 -3.51 0 -0.17 86 Colorado  -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 0 -0.18 87 Tulane  -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 -3 -0.78 88 Kansas St.  -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 0 -0.16 89 Wake Forest  -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 1 0.28 90 Tennessee  -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 -1 -0.24 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 0 -0.10 92 Virginia Tech  -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 6 2.35 93 Florida St.  -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 2 0.74 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 -2 -0.36 95 South Florida  -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 -2 -0.53 96 SMU  -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 0 -0.20 97 Hawaii  -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 0 -0.12 98 Navy  -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 3 0.68 99 North Carolina  -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 0 -0.09 100 Kansas  -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 0 -0.18 101 LA Monroe  -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 1 -0.02 102 Ball St.  -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 1 0.04 103 Arkansas  -12.82 -51.70 -11.05 1 -0.28 104 East Carolina  -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 -10 -4.58 105 Tulsa  -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 0 -0.28 106 Colorado St.  -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 0 -0.10 107 West. Kentucky  -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 0 -0.16 108 UNLV  -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 0 -0.13 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 0 0.00 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 1 0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 -1 -0.45 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 0 -0.01 113 Akron  -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 0 -0.90 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 0 -0.17 115 Rutgers  -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 0 -0.18 116 New Mexico  -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 0 -0.24 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 1 -0.09 118 Illinois  -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 -1 -0.17 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 0 -0.13 120 Bowling Green  -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 0 -0.17 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 0 -0.32 122 Kent St.  -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 0 -0.14 123 Oregon St.  -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 0 0.14 124 UTEP  -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 0 -0.07 125 San Jose St.  -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 0 -0.13 126 Louisville  -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 0 0.27 127 Rice  -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 0 -0.07 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 0 -0.20 129 New Mexico St.  -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 0 0.01 130 Connecticut  -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 0 -0.74  
      By Conference
      AAC
      8 UCF  20.28 98.78 18.30 16 Cincinnati  13.53 114.34 14.56 26 Temple  11.81 69.03 11.22 42 Memphis  4.87 35.71 4.98 61 Houston  3.50 -11.79 1.76 87 Tulane  -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 95 South Florida  -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 96 SMU  -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 98 Navy  -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 104 East Carolina  -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 105 Tulsa  -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 130 Connecticut  -31.53 -265.40 -33.88  
      ACC
      2 Clemson  33.17 249.73 34.21 22 N.C. State  11.35 95.12 12.17 29 Miami (FL)  7.45 67.37 8.23 38 Syracuse  7.26 24.38 6.02 50 Georgia Tech  2.66 27.52 3.10 55 Boston Coll.  4.24 -11.06 2.29 56 Pittsburgh  2.95 5.45 2.23 58 Virginia  2.29 11.10 2.07 84 Duke  -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 89 Wake Forest  -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 92 Virginia Tech  -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 93 Florida St.  -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 99 North Carolina  -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 126 Louisville  -23.28 -124.69 -21.56  
      B1G
      4 Michigan  21.99 199.80 24.34 7 Ohio St.  17.57 153.04 19.13 11 Penn St.  16.80 96.26 15.87 19 Iowa  14.34 83.19 13.59 33 Purdue  7.40 43.03 7.02 35 Wisconsin  5.05 67.14 6.62 37 Michigan St.  5.34 52.01 6.08 57 Nebraska  -0.34 50.34 2.21 64 Maryland  1.99 -3.64 1.15 65 Minnesota  1.67 -2.49 0.99 67 Northwestern  2.21 -22.92 0.36 80 Indiana  -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 115 Rutgers  -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 118 Illinois  -18.66 -125.56 -18.52  
      BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  19.62 155.95 20.64 15 West Virginia  15.01 99.66 14.84 34 Texas  7.86 31.00 6.74 41 Iowa St.  6.93 17.59 5.47 43 Oklahoma St.  4.46 38.56 4.84 54 Texas Tech  2.39 16.94 2.41 66 TCU  -0.84 26.43 0.72 85 Baylor  -5.51 3.40 -3.51 88 Kansas St.  -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 100 Kansas  -7.39 -77.96 -8.70  
      CUSA
      32 North Texas  5.99 62.68 7.03 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 45 Florida Atlantic  0.92 77.85 4.38 47 Middle Tenn. St.  3.78 22.12 3.59 51 Marshall  2.50 27.90 3.02 63 Southern Miss  -1.42 51.01 1.53 78 Florida Intl.  -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky  -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 124 UTEP  -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 127 Rice  -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47  
      Indies
      9 Notre Dame  17.32 113.45 17.04 28 Army  10.30 54.54 9.51 46 BYU  2.80 44.73 4.04 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 129 New Mexico St.  -24.55 -157.34 -23.99  
      MAC
      23 Ohio  12.04 83.43 12.07 39 Buffalo  5.67 45.55 5.98 60 Miami (OH)  2.12 8.06 1.80 62 Toledo  3.85 -19.18 1.64 72 East. Michigan  0.15 -1.70 0.02 76 Northern Illinois  -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 83 W. Michigan  -7.03 31.77 -3.15 102 Ball St.  -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 113 Akron  -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 120 Bowling Green  -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 122 Kent St.  -20.27 -132.98 -19.96  
      MWC
      13 Boise St.  15.06 108.02 15.27 14 Fresno St.  16.86 83.18 15.27 21 Utah St.  16.49 50.55 13.44 59 Air Force  0.49 31.57 1.86 73 Wyoming  -1.03 4.54 -0.47 75 San Diego St.  -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 77 Nevada  -3.26 9.03 -1.73 97 Hawaii  -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 106 Colorado St.  -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 108 UNLV  -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 116 New Mexico  -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 125 San Jose St.  -17.27 -187.97 -20.62  
      P12
      20 Washington St.  12.64 105.29 13.53 24 Washington  10.97 96.78 12.00 25 Utah  12.05 75.17 11.68 44 Stanford  7.44 -10.58 4.45 48 Oregon  4.30 14.64 3.58 52 Arizona St.  3.57 12.37 2.98 69 Arizona  -3.90 57.62 0.19 74 USC  -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 79 California  -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 82 UCLA  -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 86 Colorado  -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 123 Oregon St.  -20.91 -131.45 -20.30  
      SBC
      17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 53 Arkansas St.  1.11 37.01 2.53 68 Troy  1.09 -8.41 0.32 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 81 LA Lafayette  -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 101 LA Monroe  -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65  
      SEC
      1 Alabama  36.16 265.88 36.99 3 Georgia  25.54 185.56 26.02 6 Mississippi St.  18.01 148.26 19.19 10 Missouri  16.75 113.10 16.65 12 Texas A&M  12.83 143.03 15.48 18 LSU  14.17 89.52 13.78 27 Florida  10.67 71.65 10.59 30 Auburn  9.75 31.94 8.05 31 Kentucky  9.24 37.67 7.99 40 South Carolina  6.74 21.90 5.55 49 Vanderbilt  5.72 -12.73 3.20 70 Mississippi  -3.37 47.31 0.05 90 Tennessee  -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 103 Arkansas  -12.82 -51.70 -11.05  
       
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter.  ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton.  But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard right, THIRTEEN wins! ... and sponsored by what can only be described as the most iconic brand of highly processed, nominally cheese-based, boxed snack cracker (yes, you heard me Cheese Nips, #$%@ you), the inimitable, the indefatigable, the inestimable ...
       

      I get a little chill running down my spine just seeing that picture.
       
      The state of Arizona hasn't been very good to the Horned Frogs over the last 45 years.  Our two bowl games in the state represent two of the last three bowl losses LRBW2XAPCotYHCGMFP has sustained, the ugly 17-16 loss to Michigan State in the 2012 BW3 Bowl, the painful 17-10 loss to Boise in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.  The Frogs are also 1-3 all time against Arizona schools, although the one win did come in the state of Arizona, another low-scoring win (13-10) in 2003 against the Arizona team that John Mackovic ruined after he ruined UT. 
       
      And you can almost bet the house that this game will be another low scoring contest as both teams have stout defenses and borderline anemic offenses.
       
      Here are Cal's numbers week-to-week:
       
      Opp:     UNC    @ BYU      Ore    |   @ Zona       UCLA      @ OreSt    |   Wash      @ WSU     @ USC   |       Col      Stan
      PD:       -2.20        5.10   -12.40  |     -12.30      -43.09          20.40     |   11.55         8.20          0.09    |      9.90     -6.00
      YD:     -51.30   142.70   -28.10  |    -175.50     -99.18        152.00     |   88.00      -11.00       -82.36   | -125.00      3.10
      DO:       -3.95      10.31    -9.63   |      -16.70     -33.53          20.96     |   11.96          4.93        -3.93    |      0.54     -3.85
      Score: 24-17      21-18   24-42  |       17-24         7-37            49-7     |   12-10        13-19       15-14   |     33-21    13-23
       
      Particularly after Cal's inexplicable blow-out loss to UCLA, their defense was stout, giving up an average of 16 points a game over the last half of the season.  But make no mistake, taken as a whole, Cal has shown very little evidence that they are anything other than an utterly average team.  Their only fairly impressive performances were a blow-out win against a hapless Oregon State and a solid shutdown of the Huskies in Week 9.  They struggled to beat a bad North Carolina team, lost to a bad Arizona team, and were a little lucky to have beaten USC and Colorado late in the year in games where they were significantly outgained.
       
      Of course, the Frogs were pretty damn average most of this season too.
       
      As done last year, I'll compare how DUSHEE, Sagarin (Predictor), and SRS see the bowl matchups as compared to the opening Vegas odds.
       
      When I checked the ESPN site linked above, oddsmakers had the Cheez-It Bowl even, but all the computer models like the Horned Frogs.  Throughout this post DO = DUSHEE Original, DX = DUSHEE Extra Crispy, DA = average of DO and DX, Sag = Sagarin, and SoS is the DUSHEE-based strength of schedule.  Here are the computer numbers for the two teams
       
      Bowl Location   Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Cheez-It Phoenix, AZ   TCU  6-6 0.72 4.49 76.09 3.33 4.52       California  7-5 -2.08 -1.82 73.15 2.34 0.18  
      The Frogs have had a clear advantage in Strength of Schedule, which makes TCU a stronger favorite in the DX model, by almost a TD.  DUSHEE Original and Sagarin like the Frogs by roughly a field goal and SRS likes the Frogs by a point.
       
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU  2.80 TCU  6.31 TCU  4.56 TCU 0 TCU  2.94 TCU  1.0  
      Other Big XII-II Bowls
      It's a bit of a rough slate of games for the Big XII-II.  Only West Virginia is favored based on the starting lines coming out of Vegas and the Frogs are the only other team favored by the computers.  There is a good chance the conference comes out of the bowl season no better than 2-5.
       
      Texas
      It's the Rapey Bears against the Gilded Age Robber Barons in this battle of mediocrity in Houston.  All of the computer models like the Commodores (She's a brick .... house) both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Baylor  6-6 -3.51 -2.34 69.95 2.03 1.47 Vanderbilt  6-6 3.20 7.09 73.31 7.85 6.38  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Vanderbilt  6.71 Vanderbilt  9.42 Vanderbilt  8.07 Vanderbilt  2.5 Vanderbilt  3.36 Vanderbilt  5.8  
      Camping World
      West Virginia is the clear favorite in Disney World against the Sicilian Orangepersons.  Only the SRS metric doesn't like the Mountaineers against the spread.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS West Virginia  8-3 14.84 19.70 85.94 13.73 2.01 Syracuse  9-3 6.02 5.52 77.19 11.08 -0.90  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS West Virginia  8.82 West Virginia  14.19 West Virginia  11.50 West Virginia  7 West Virginia  8.75 West Virginia  2.7  
      Alamo
      The location of many a furious and historic Frog comeback sees the return of the dread pirate Mike Leach against an Iowa State team that faded coming down the stretch.  The computer models all agree that the starting line on this game was far too low with DUSHEE and Sagarin both liking the Cougars by more than a touchdown.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Iowa St.  8-4 5.47 4.79 75.62 7.73 2.73 Washington St.  10-2 13.53 14.27 83.46 12.46 -1.45  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Washington St.  8.06 Washington St.  9.48 Washington St.  8.77 Washington St.  1.5 Washington St.  7.84 Washington St.  4.7  
      Liberty
      Another matchup where the computer models think Vegas is being far too generous with the Big XII-II team, all taking the Tigers ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Missouri  8-4 16.65 22.70 84.27 15.19 7.84 Oklahoma St.  6-6 4.84 7.74 78.75 5.52 2.74  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Missouri  11.80 Missouri  14.96 Missouri  13.38 Missouri  4.5 Missouri  5.52 Missouri  9.7  
      NY6 Bowls
       
      Peach
      Everybody likes the Khaki Pants in this one.  Only the SRS would take Flo Rida, barely, ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Florida  9-3 10.59 15.63 82.91 12.20 6.78 Michigan  10-2 24.34 28.24 91.78 19.25 3.06  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Michigan  13.75 Michigan  12.61 Michigan  13.18 Michigan  7.5 Michigan  8.87 Michigan  7.1  
      Fiesta
      The first game in our summary where there is substantial disagreement between the models.  Generally speaking, this most often happens when there is a big difference in strengths of schedule, as is the case this time.  Starting off, Vegas likes LSU a lot, so much so that all the computer models, while disagreeing on the winner SU, all like the Kaniggits ATS.  DUSHEE Original and the SRS like UCF to win the game, DUSHEE XC and Sagarin like the Bayou Bengals.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS LSU  9-3 13.78 19.59 84.00 14.73 7.85 UCF  12-0 18.26 17.77 82.46 16.22 -2.57  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCF  4.48 LSU  1.82 UCF  1.33 LSU  10 LSU  1.54 UCF  1.5  
      Rose
      Unanimous agreement that the Buckeyes are both the favorite SU and ATS.  Only about 2.5 points separates the models.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio St.  12-1 19.13 21.49 91.87 18.09 1.07 Washington  10-3 12.00 13.95 86.84 11.84 2.60  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St.  7.13 Ohio St.  7.54 Ohio St.  7.34 Ohio St.  4 Ohio St.  5.03 Ohio St.  6.3  
      Sugar
      No one thinks this is going to be close.  Sagarin gives a slight edge to the Horns ATS.  DUSHEE thinks UGa wins by three scores, but DUSHEE has been lower on Texas than the general consensus all year.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Georgia  11-2 26.02 33.68 92.68 22.64 7.27 Texas  9-4 6.74 9.12 81.67 9.83 3.18  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia  19.28 Georgia  24.56 Georgia  21.92 Georgia  12.5 Georgia  11.01 Georgia  12.8  
      Cotton
      Neither of the Semi-Finals look to be competitive.  Clemson is a heavy favorite in this matchup.  DUSHEE likes the Tigers by nearly 20, Vegas by 10.5.  Only the SRS likes the Fightin' Rudys ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Clemson  13-0 34.21 37.26 100.01 23.61 0.94 Notre Dame  12-0 17.01 18.18 87.59 19.06 0.30  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Clemson  17.20 Clemson  19.08 Clemson  18.14 Clemson  10.5 Clemson  12.42 Clemson  4.6  
      Orange
      The models are even more unanimous (is that a possible thing, logically?) about the other Semi-Final, although not ATS, where Sagarin and SRS like the Sooners.  For some reason, my gut tells me that the Sooners are going to be better here than all the numbers suggest, but the numbers are clear.  Roll Tide.  Blech.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Alabama  13-0 36.99 42.89 102.68 27.18 5.16 Oklahoma  12-1 20.67 23.30 90.16 17.96 2.94  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama  16.32 Alabama  19.59 Alabama  17.96 Alabama  14 Alabama  12.52 Alabama  9.2  
      Other Bowls of Regional Interest
       
      New Mexico
      The Fightin' Greene Eagles of Denton face off against the former team of technological's new coach, Utah State.  The Aggies are the unanimous favorite but all the computer models like the Mean Green ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS North Texas  9-3 7.03 1.62 66.89 1.68 -8.86 Utah St.  10-2 13.44 10.15 77.65 8.52 -6.54  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah St.  6.41 Utah St.  8.53 Utah St.  7.47 Utah St.  11 Utah St.  10.76 Utah St.  6.8  
      Frisco
      The Bowl of Generic Suburban Dallas pits THE Ohio University against the Fightin' Montezuma's of Far Southern California.  Ohio is the unanimous favorite SU and the unanimous choice ATS. 
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio  8-4 12.07 8.04 70.85 4.00 -5.87 San Diego St.  7-5 -0.89 -2.31 65.31 -1.59 -2.09  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio  12.96 Ohio  10.35 Ohio  11.65 Ohio  3 Ohio  5.54 Ohio  5.6  
      Armed Forces
      Played in our Frogs humble home of Amon G. (Patterson) Carter Stadium, the Black Kaniggits of the Hudson have been DUSHEE favorites all year, and true to form, DUSHEE likes the Cadets in this game way more than everybody else.  That said, the computers all agree that Army should be the favorite in the game while Vegas likes Cougar High.  Note that the Army-Navy game is not included in Army's totals as I am writing this before the game has occurred in the space-time continuum.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Army  9-2 11.11 10.61 72.33 6.63 -1.90 Houston  8-4 1.72 -1.70 71.86 3.50 -5.12  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Army  9.40 Army  12.31 Army  10.85 Houston  3 Army  0.47 Army  3.1  
       
      First Responder
      The Smurf Donkeys rebounded from a very bad loss to Oklahoma State early in the year to have a very nice little season, and for that, they get rewarded with a bowl game in the dilapidated Cotton Bowl against a barely .500 ACC team.  A reminder of what life was like as a have-not.  As with Army, DUSHEE likes Boise far more than anybody else, but Boise is still the unanimous favorite over the Fightin' Fluties.  DUSHEE and SRS like the Broncos ATS; Sagarin says to take BC and the points.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Boston Coll.  7-5 2.29 2.94 77.00 4.92 2.07 Boise St.  10-3 15.27 15.43 78.79 8.61 -1.04  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boise St.  12.98 Boise St.  12.49 Boise St.  12.73 Boise St. 2.5 Boise St.  1.79 Boise St.  3.7  
      Taxslayer
      I guess this is a good bowl?  Seems like agricultural deserves better.  Two of their losses were respectable games against the two inarguably best teams in the country and they had the toughest schedule, per DUSHEE, in all of college football.  NC State was a schizophrenic team this year, looking like maybe a legitimate challenger to Clemson early in the season with impressive wins over a good Marshall team and what then appeared to be a good Virginia team.  Then not so much toward the end of the season as Clemson, Syracuse, and lowly Wake Forest all beat the Wolfpack. 
       
      This game has one of the larger differentials in schedule strength, and as expected, DUSHEE Extra Crispy likes the Ags a lot more than Original, the latter being more in line with Sagarin and SRS.  Agricultural is a unanimous favorite with only Sagarin picking NC State ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Texas A&M  8-4 15.48 23.30 83.06 12.14 10.12 N.C. State  9-3 12.17 9.14 81.22 7.85 -1.82  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas A&M  3.31 Texas A&M  14.15 Texas A&M  8.73 Texas A&M  3 Texas A&M  1.84 Texas A&M  4.3  
      Sun
      The Bowl that should hold a soft spot in the heart of every Frog fan this year pits the Frog's bowl opponent from last year against the 7-6 ACC Coastal Division champion.  Pitt's SOS puts them as the favorite per DUSHEE Extra Crispy, but everyone else likes the Trees.  All the models say to take Pitt and the points except for Sagarin who is exactly on the Vegas spread.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Pittsburgh  7-6 2.23 7.12 73.61 6.14 6.89 Stanford  8-4 4.45 6.51 82.11 8.05 3.09  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Stanford  2.22 Pittsburgh  0.62 Stanford  0.80 Stanford  8.5 Stanford  8.50 Stanford  1.9  
      All the Rest
       
      Bowl   DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Cure   LA Lafayette  1.37 LA Lafayette  2.69 LA Lafayette  2.03 Tulane 3.5 Tulane  5.70 LA Lafayette  0.4 Las Vegas   Fresno St.  12.29 Fresno St.  12.46 Fresno St.  12.38 Fresno St.  3.5 Fresno St.  5.66 Fresno St.  6.0 Camellia   East. Michigan  0.01 East. Michigan  1.17 East. Michigan  0.59 East. Michigan 3.5 East. Michigan  0.02 Georgia Southern 3.3 New Orleans   Appalachian State 10.60 Appalachian State 8.89 Appalachian State 9.74 Appalachian State 9 Appalachian State 10.35 Appalachian State 7.2 Boca Raton   UAB 7.57 UAB 6.56 UAB 7.06 Northern Illinois  1 Northern Illinois  0.44 UAB 0.0 Gasparilla   Marshall  10.57 Marshall  11.76 Marshall  11.16 South Florida  2 Marshall  1.57 Marshall  4.3 Bahamas   Toledo  3.57 Toledo  4.90 Toledo  4.24 Toledo  4.5 Toledo  7.75 Toledo  1.8 Idaho Potato   BYU  7.18 BYU  9.20 BYU  8.19 BYU 14 BYU  7.88 BYU  4.8 Birmingham   Memphis  9.23 Memphis  7.32 Memphis  8.28 Memphis  4.5 Memphis  3.24 Memphis  2.1 Dollar General   Buffalo  5.67 Buffalo  7.84 Buffalo  6.75 Buffalo  4 Buffalo  1.21 Buffalo  0.7 Hawaii   Louisiana Tech  2.96 Louisiana Tech  2.85 Louisiana Tech  2.90 Hawaii 2.5 Louisiana Tech  2.97 Hawaii  4.5 Quick Lane   Georgia Tech  2.11 Georgia Tech  0.02 Georgia Tech  1.07 Georgia Tech  3.5 Georgia Tech  3.13 Georgia Tech  1.1 Independence   Temple  14.48 Temple  9.76 Temple  12.12 Temple  5 Temple  1.94 Duke  0.0 Pinstripe   Miami (FL)  1.61 Miami (FL)  1.27 Miami (FL)  1.44 Miami (FL)  2.5 Miami (FL)  1.87 Miami (FL)  2.6 Music City   Auburn  1.03 Auburn  3.03 Auburn  2.03 Auburn  3.5 Auburn  4.48 Auburn  0.5 Belk   South Carolina  3.49 South Carolina  9.77 South Carolina  6.63 South Carolina  3.5 South Carolina  5.83 South Carolina  4.1 Arizona   Arkansas St.  4.27 Arkansas St.  3.16 Arkansas St.  3.71 Arkansas St.  0 Arkansas St.  0.31 Arkansas St.  3.9 Military   Cincinnati  20.56 Cincinnati  19.39 Cincinnati  19.98 Cincinnati  7.5 Cincinnati  5.28 Cincinnati  8.2 Redbox   Michigan St.  2.51 Michigan St.  6.08 Michigan St.  4.29 Oregon  1.5 Michigan St.  0.50 Michigan St.  0.5 Holiday   Utah  11.31 Utah  12.50 Utah  11.91 Utah  8.5 Utah  7.35 Utah  4.7 Outback    Mississippi St.  5.60 Mississippi St.  10.34 Mississippi St.  7.97 Mississippi St.  4 Mississippi St.  1.35 Mississippi St.  0.9 Citrus   Penn St.  7.88 Penn St.  5.90 Penn St.  6.89 Penn St.  7 Penn St.  7.46 Penn St.  1.1  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points).  It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia.  Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team.  The biggest mover in the top 25 was the Bearkats of Cincinnati, jumping 8 spots and almost 4 points after destroying East Carolina.  The larger overall upward mover was Middle Tennessee who pounded what had been a borderline top-25 team, UAB, by 24 points and over 300 yards.  The biggest mover in the wrong direction was easily Duke, who fell 23 spots and over 5.5 points after inexplicably getting blown out by what had been by all counts a really bad Wake Forest team 59-7.
       
      Frogs Week-to-Week
      The Frogs moved up for the second week in a row, 4 spots and 1.4 points to #66.  Just behind the Frogs is B1G West champion Northwestern and only 9 spots ahead is ACC CCG qualifier Pitt (I'm too lazy to look up what the division is called). 
       
      Opp:      @ SMU      N OhSt      @ Tex    |      ISU      Ttech          OU     |   @ Kan      KSU      @ WVU     |     @ Bay      OkSt
      PD:          23.60           6.00        -9.27     |     8.20       -3.50       -8.18   |     -8.20      -2.70       -25.78     |        1.40      10.80
      YD:          78.40       143.55       29.82    | 140.60      26.10  -133.73   |  141.40    -90.40    -244.67      |      24.50    185.60
      Score:     19.53         10.96        -4.74    |   12.28        -1.07    -11.94   |      1.39       -6.18      -29.05     |        2.12       16.20
       
      The Frogs' performance against Okie St was their 2nd best of the season based on DUSHEE score, behind only the SMU game, and was the first time the Frogs looked like a significantly above-average team since the Iowa State game in Week 6.
       
      Wince we don't know the Frogs' next opponent yet, let's move on to ...
       
      Conference Championship Games
      Below is a look at all the conference championship games this weekend.  DUSHEE only thinks 3 are likely to be competitive: the CUSA game between UAB and MTSU is a true toss-up (after giving MTSU the home field advantage (HFA) ... UAB would be favored on a neutral field), the Pac-12 with Utah as a slight favorite, and the MWC where a Boise HFA turns that game from a toss-up to a Boise 3-point advantage.
       
      DUSHEE gives Georgia, Texas, Northwestern, and Memphis all somewhere around a 1-in-4 to 1-in-5 chance.  Pitt is given less than a 10% chance of beating Clemson.
       
      CCG Location Team 1 Rec DUSHEE O Team 2 Rec DUSHEE O DO Fav (Vegas) DDO + HFA Team 1 Chance SEC Atlanta, GA Georgia  11-1 25.11 Alabama  12-0 38.29 Alabama (-10.5) -13.18   27% ACC Charlotte, NC Pittsburgh  7-5 2.29 Clemson  12-0 33.95 Clemson (-23.5) -31.66   9% BXII-II Arlington, TX Texas  9-3 6.85 Oklahoma  11-1 21.04 Oklahoma (-5.5) -14.19   20% P12 Santa Clara, CA Washington  9-3 11.48 Utah  9-3 12.73 Utah (+3) -1.25   47% B1G Indianapolis, IN Northwestern  8-4 0.81 Ohio St.  11-1 18.80 Ohio St. (-13) -17.99   24% AAC Orlando, FL Memphis  8-4 5.57 UCF  11-0 18.50 UCF (-7) -12.93 -16.45 24% CUSA Murfreesboro, TN UAB 9-3 6.73 Middle Tenn. St.  8-4 3.21 UAB (+2.5) -3.52 -0.01 50% MAC Detroit, MI Northern Illinois  7-5  -2.36 Buffalo  10-2 7.04 Buffalo (-4) -9.39   33% MWC Boise, ID Fresno St.  10-2 15.49 Boise St.  10-2 15.14 Fresno St. (+1.5) -0.35 +3.16 44% SBC Boone, NC LA Lafayette  7-5  -3.56 Appalachian State 9-2 15.29 Appalachian State (-17.5) -18.85 -22.37 13%  
      In general, DUSHEE is higher on most of the favorites than Vegas is.  This is particularly true for Oklahoma, where Vegas likes the Sooners by 5.5 and DUSHEE likes them by 14, and UCF, where Vegas likes the Knights by a TD and DUSHEE likes them (with home field) by 16.5.  Vegas favors MTSU in the DUSHEE toss-up CUSA game by 2.5 and favors Washington by 3 when DUSHEE favors the Utes by a point to point-and-a-half.
       
      Only two of the CCGs feature the top two teams in each conference based on their DUSHEE ranking ... the SEC and the MWC.  So, per DUSHEE's assessment, eight out of 10 CCGs are pitting inferior matchups for their respective "championships."
       
      Conference: DUSHEE Rank (Rank in Conference)
      SEC: 1 Alabama (1) vs. 3 Georgia (2)
      ACC: 2 Clemson (1) vs 57 Pitt (6) ... 29 Miami is the 2nd ranked ACC team and would only be a 26-point dog to Clemson
      BXII-II: 5 Oklahoma (1) vs 35 Texas (3) ... 17 West Virginia ranks second and would only be a 6-point dog to OU
      P12: 22 Utah (2) vs 25 Washington (3) ... 20 Washington State ranked 1st, only 2 points separate these 3 teams
      B1G: 7 Ohio St. (2) vs. 67 Northwestern (11) ... 4 Michigan was the top ranked team; 19 Iowa was the top ranked team in the West
      AAC: 8 UCF (1) vs. 41 Memphis (4) ... 16 Cincinnati was the 2nd ranked team in the conference, Memphis was the top ranked team in the West Division
      CUSA: 37 UAB (2) vs 50 MTSU (5) ... 33 North Texas was the top ranked team, 44 Marshall was the top ranked team in the East Division
      MAC: 34 Buffalo (2) vs 79 NIU (5) ... 23 Ohio was the top ranked team, 61 Toledo was the top ranked team in the West Division
      MWC: 13 Fresno (1) vs 15 Boise (2)
      SBC: 14 App St. (1) vs. 87 ULaLa (5) ... 53 Arkansas State was the 2nd ranked team and the top ranked team in the side of the bracket ULaLa was on
       
      Conference Ratings
      Unfortunately, this season, the SEC really was far and away the best conference in college football.  As we have discussed before, there are many ways to judge the "best" conference and pretty much any way you look at it ... SEC.
       
      Top of the conference?  They have 6 teams in the top 20.  The Pac 12 has 1 ... Washington State at #20.  The ACC has 1 ... Clemson ... and their second best team, Miami, is 29th.  The Big XII-II has 2 teams in the top 20, same as the Mountain West.  The B1G has four.
       
      Bottom of the conference?  The SEC had two clearly below average teams, Arkansas and Tennessee.  The ACC had six.  The B1G and Big XII-II both had three.  The Pac 12 has five.
       
      Conference average?  The average SEC team is nearly a TD better than the average B1G or BXII-II team and would be a 9-10 point favorite on a neutral field against the average P12 or ACC team.  The average ACC team is closer to an average Sun Belt team than an average SEC team.
       
      SEC 10.77 B10 4.32 B12 4.15 P12 1.77 ACC 0.82 AAC -2.15 MWC -2.51 MAC -5.51 CUSA -5.62 SBC -6.19  
      Yet another reason why this season has sucked.
       
      Performances of the Week
      Top 3
      48.30 Ohio St. vs. Michigan (23 MOV, 166 YM)
      47.40 Cincinnati vs. ECU (50 MOV, 338 YM)
      45.64 Middle Tennessee St. vs. UAB (24 MOV, 305 YM)
       
      Bottom 3
      -56.59 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM)
      -42.17 Louisville vs. Kentucky (-46 MOV, -292 YM)
      -39.58 Central Michigan at Toledo (-38 MOV, -292 YM)
       
      Overall Rankings
        Week 13   Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  37.01 280.91 38.29 0 -0.72 2 Clemson  32.88 248.04 33.95 0 -2.08 3 Georgia  25.14 172.21 25.11 1 1.40 4 Michigan  22.12 200.75 24.48 -1 -2.82 5 Oklahoma  19.91 160.35 21.04 0 -0.43 6 Mississippi St.  18.35 150.92 19.55 0 1.18 7 Ohio St.  17.12 152.37 18.80 4 2.91 8 UCF  20.66 97.49 18.50 1 1.18 9 Notre Dame  17.43 116.20 17.25 -2 -0.89 10 Missouri  17.25 117.16 17.18 3 1.46 11 Penn St.  17.13 99.04 16.22 6 1.64 12 Texas A&M  12.95 146.44 15.73 -4 -1.71 13 Fresno St.  16.93 86.80 15.49 -3 -0.79 14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 4 1.15 15 Boise St.  15.13 104.23 15.14 4 1.02 16 Cincinnati  14.01 119.62 15.14 8 3.79 17 West Virginia  15.23 101.18 15.06 -1 0.29 18 LSU  14.68 93.08 14.30 -4 -1.14 19 Iowa  14.51 84.01 13.75 -4 -1.46 20 Washington St.  12.86 106.15 13.72 -8 -2.10 21 Utah St.  16.63 50.92 13.55 -1 -0.21 22 Utah  12.96 84.43 12.73 -1 -0.90 23 Ohio  12.27 84.20 12.26 -1 -0.20 24 Temple  12.35 75.14 11.88 -1 -0.56 25 Washington  10.65 90.43 11.48 4 2.38 26 Army  12.21 65.97 11.34 -1 0.06 27 Florida  10.68 71.15 10.57 6 1.99 28 Auburn  10.25 35.12 8.53 2 -0.50 29 Miami (FL)  7.46 68.89 8.32 7 0.22 30 N.C. State  8.43 49.70 8.03 -3 -1.81 31 Kentucky  9.31 36.37 7.97 9 1.82 32 Purdue  7.56 44.00 7.18 3 -1.02 33 North Texas  6.06 64.41 7.16 -5 -2.29 34 Buffalo  6.52 55.45 7.04 10 2.10 35 Texas  8.10 29.96 6.85 -1 -1.48 36 Wisconsin  5.20 68.22 6.77 -4 -2.12 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 -11 -3.37 38 Michigan St.  5.47 52.92 6.21 -7 -2.79 39 Syracuse  7.11 21.88 5.80 7 1.76 40 Iowa St.  7.24 18.77 5.74 -2 -1.10 41 Memphis  5.10 44.74 5.57 19 3.15 42 South Carolina  6.24 24.65 5.36 8 1.70 43 Oklahoma St.  4.82 40.35 5.17 -6 -2.11 44 Marshall  5.18 27.66 4.80 8 1.16 45 Stanford  7.29 -4.72 4.63 -6 -1.96 46 Florida Atlantic  1.28 77.64 4.62 -3 -0.51 47 BYU  3.16 45.29 4.30 -2 0.23 48 Oregon  4.52 15.51 3.77 6 0.44 49 Georgia Tech  2.87 29.99 3.37 -7 -2.19 50 Middle Tenn. St.  4.04 10.67 3.21 28 4.94 51 Vanderbilt  5.76 -14.31 3.15 12 1.97 52 Arizona St.  3.68 13.72 3.12 1 -0.52 53 Arkansas St.  1.44 40.64 2.93 11 1.79 54 Texas Tech  2.58 18.21 2.60 -13 -3.12 55 Houston  4.07 -5.45 2.45 -8 -1.53 56 Nebraska  -0.18 51.33 2.37 5 0.41 57 Pittsburgh  3.14 4.06 2.29 -6 -1.35 58 Miami (OH)  2.60 8.77 2.16 9 1.64 59 Air Force  0.65 31.81 1.97 -1 -0.58 60 Southern Miss  -1.06 52.88 1.86 6 1.26 61 Toledo  4.02 -17.45 1.83 13 2.82 62 Boston Coll.  3.57 -15.91 1.61 -6 -1.35 63 Virginia  1.83 7.89 1.60 -15 -2.27 64 Minnesota  1.94 -0.24 1.28 8 2.04 65 Maryland  2.11 -3.14 1.26 -16 -2.44 66 TCU  -0.69 27.38 0.86 4 1.39 67 Northwestern  2.79 -21.58 0.81 -12 -2.46 68 Troy  1.35 -6.84 0.57 3 1.14 69 Arizona  -3.67 58.69 0.40 -1 0.48 70 East. Michigan  0.39 -1.29 0.20 -8 -1.23 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 -2 0.58 72 Mississippi  -3.38 48.55 0.10 -15 -2.70 73 Wyoming  -0.77 6.22 -0.21 6 1.91 74 USC  -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 2 0.79 75 San Diego St.  -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 -10 -1.29 76 Nevada  -2.99 10.84 -1.47 -3 -0.56 77 Florida Intl.  0.15 -38.12 -1.75 8 2.17 78 California  -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 2 0.28 79 Northern Illinois  -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 -4 -1.32 80 UCLA  -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 4 0.64 81 Indiana  -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 1 -0.13 82 Duke  -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 -23 -5.57 83 W. Michigan  -7.04 31.35 -3.17 5 1.01 84 Tulane  -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 -3 -0.85 85 Baylor  -5.34 4.58 -3.34 5 1.23 86 Colorado  -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 -3 -0.48 87 LA Lafayette  -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 4 1.05 88 Kansas St.  -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 -1 0.14 89 Tennessee  -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 -12 -2.59 90 Wake Forest  -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 10 4.45 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 -2 -0.57 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 2 0.30 93 South Florida  -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 0 -0.59 94 East Carolina  -11.77 15.08 -7.12 -8 -3.11 95 Florida St.  -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 -3 -1.61 96 SMU  -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 -1 -0.43 97 Hawaii  -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 7 1.93 98 Virginia Tech  -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 -1 0.41 99 North Carolina  -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 -3 0.23 100 Kansas  -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 -1 0.50 101 Navy  -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 0 0.74 102 LA Monroe  -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 0 0.19 103 Ball St.  -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 0 -0.50 104 Arkansas  -12.59 -49.10 -10.77 -6 -1.99 105 Tulsa  -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 1 0.61 106 Colorado St.  -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 3 0.96 107 West. Kentucky  -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 3 1.39 108 UNLV  -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 4 1.33 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 -4 -2.05 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 -3 -1.39 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 0 0.00 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 -4 -1.22 113 Akron  -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 3 1.69 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 1 -0.21 115 Rutgers  -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 3 0.94 116 New Mexico  -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 -3 -2.09 117 Illinois  -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 5 1.35 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 1 0.69 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 -5 -1.53 120 Bowling Green  -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 -3 -0.47 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 3 1.81 122 Kent St.  -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 4 2.48 123 Oregon St.  -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 -3 -1.31 124 UTEP  -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 -1 -0.22 125 San Jose St.  -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 0 1.78 126 Louisville  -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 -5 -2.14 127 Rice  -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 0 1.79 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 1 2.61 129 New Mexico St.  -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 -1 1.56 130 Connecticut  -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 0 -0.30  
      By Conference
      AAC
      8 UCF  20.66 97.49 18.50 16 Cincinnati  14.01 119.62 15.14 24 Temple  12.35 75.14 11.88 41 Memphis  5.10 44.74 5.57 55 Houston  4.07 -5.45 2.45 84 Tulane  -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 93 South Florida  -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 94 East Carolina  -11.77 15.08 -7.12 96 SMU  -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 101 Navy  -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 105 Tulsa  -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 130 Connecticut  -30.84 -259.36 -33.13  
      ACC
      2 Clemson  32.88 248.04 33.95 29 Miami (FL)  7.46 68.89 8.32 30 N.C. State  8.43 49.70 8.03 39 Syracuse  7.11 21.88 5.80 49 Georgia Tech  2.87 29.99 3.37 57 Pittsburgh  3.14 4.06 2.29 62 Boston Coll.  3.57 -15.91 1.61 63 Virginia  1.83 7.89 1.60 82 Duke  -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 90 Wake Forest  -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 95 Florida St.  -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 98 Virginia Tech  -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 99 North Carolina  -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 126 Louisville  -23.53 -126.58 -21.83  
      B1G
      4 Michigan  22.12 200.75 24.48 7 Ohio St.  17.12 152.37 18.80 11 Penn St.  17.13 99.04 16.22 19 Iowa  14.51 84.01 13.75 32 Purdue  7.56 44.00 7.18 36 Wisconsin  5.20 68.22 6.77 38 Michigan St.  5.47 52.92 6.21 56 Nebraska  -0.18 51.33 2.37 64 Minnesota  1.94 -0.24 1.28 65 Maryland  2.11 -3.14 1.26 67 Northwestern  2.79 -21.58 0.81 81 Indiana  -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 115 Rutgers  -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 117 Illinois  -18.49 -124.32 -18.35  
      BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  19.91 160.35 21.04 17 West Virginia  15.23 101.18 15.06 35 Texas  8.10 29.96 6.85 40 Iowa St.  7.24 18.77 5.74 43 Oklahoma St.  4.82 40.35 5.17 54 Texas Tech  2.58 18.21 2.60 66 TCU  -0.69 27.38 0.86 85 Baylor  -5.34 4.58 -3.34 88 Kansas St.  -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 100 Kansas  -7.21 -76.66 -8.52  
      CUSA
      33 North Texas  6.06 64.41 7.16 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 44 Marshall  5.18 27.66 4.80 46 Florida Atlantic  1.28 77.64 4.62 50 Middle Tenn. St.  4.04 10.67 3.21 60 Southern Miss  -1.06 52.88 1.86 77 Florida Intl.  0.15 -38.12 -1.75 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 107 West. Kentucky  -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 124 UTEP  -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 127 Rice  -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26  
      Indies
      9 Notre Dame  17.43 116.20 17.25 26 Army  12.21 65.97 11.34 47 BYU  3.16 45.29 4.30 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 129 New Mexico St.  -24.51 -157.90 -24.00  
      MAC
      23 Ohio  12.27 84.20 12.26 34 Buffalo  6.52 55.45 7.04 58 Miami (OH)  2.60 8.77 2.16 61 Toledo  4.02 -17.45 1.83 70 East. Michigan  0.39 -1.29 0.20 79 Northern Illinois  -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 83 W. Michigan  -7.04 31.35 -3.17 103 Ball St.  -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 113 Akron  -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 120 Bowling Green  -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 122 Kent St.  -20.10 -132.29 -19.81  
      MWC
      13 Fresno St.  16.93 86.80 15.49 15 Boise St.  15.13 104.23 15.14 21 Utah St.  16.63 50.92 13.55 59 Air Force  0.65 31.81 1.97 73 Wyoming  -0.77 6.22 -0.21 75 San Diego St.  -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 76 Nevada  -2.99 10.84 -1.47 97 Hawaii  -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 106 Colorado St.  -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 108 UNLV  -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 116 New Mexico  -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 125 San Jose St.  -17.14 -186.89 -20.49  
      P12
      20 Washington St.  12.86 106.15 13.72 22 Utah  12.96 84.43 12.73 25 Washington  10.65 90.43 11.48 45 Stanford  7.29 -4.72 4.63 48 Oregon  4.52 15.51 3.77 52 Arizona St.  3.68 13.72 3.12 69 Arizona  -3.67 58.69 0.40 74 USC  -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 78 California  -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 80 UCLA  -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 86 Colorado  -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 123 Oregon St.  -20.97 -133.21 -20.44  
      SBC
      14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 53 Arkansas St.  1.44 40.64 2.93 68 Troy  1.35 -6.84 0.57 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 87 LA Lafayette  -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 102 LA Monroe  -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33  
      SEC
      1 Alabama  37.01 280.91 38.29 3 Georgia  25.14 172.21 25.11 6 Mississippi St.  18.35 150.92 19.55 10 Missouri  17.25 117.16 17.18 12 Texas A&M  12.95 146.44 15.73 18 LSU  14.68 93.08 14.30 27 Florida  10.68 71.15 10.57 28 Auburn  10.25 35.12 8.53 31 Kentucky  9.31 36.37 7.97 42 South Carolina  6.24 24.65 5.36 51 Vanderbilt  5.76 -14.31 3.15 72 Mississippi  -3.38 48.55 0.10 89 Tennessee  -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 104 Arkansas  -12.59 -49.10 -10.77  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      A lot of movement in this week's rankings.  Alabama now has a 3-point lead on Clemson.  Oklahoma has fallen out of the top 4 as Georgia has moved into the 4-slot.  Notre Dame has slowly crept up into 7th, and would still be a home underdog to any other teams in the top-4, but are now in a position where another school (Georgia or Oklahoma) isn't totally getting screwed when they get in the CFP.  UCF has also climbed into the top 10, just ahead of Fresno as the top ranked Have Not ... last week's gnashing of teeth about Utah State has been corrected as the Aggies' so-so performance against a bad Colorado State team (they won, but only by 5 and got badly outgained) drops them 14 spots (biggest ranking drop of the week) to 20th.  The biggest climber of the week was Auburn, who jumped 16 spots and over 5 points into 30th after manhandling a bad, but not terrible, Liberty team, who had the corresponding largest fall in points at just over 6.  For the first time this season, the Frogs moved up in the rankings (two spots to 70th) although they still dropped in points (-0.55).
       
      Frogs Week-to-Week
      Opp:      @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex  |    ISU      Ttech           OU    |   @ Kan      KSU     @ WVU   |   @ Bay
      PD:           23.22         5.50        -9.40  |    8.33      -2.33         -6.80  |      -8.22      -2.67      -24.00  |      -0.44
      YD:           75.00     142.80      31.60  | 135.56     40.67   -117.80  |   136.00    -92.11    -240.13  |     11.78
      Score:      19.08       10.52       -4.75  |   12.06        0.40     -10.19  |        1.04      -6.20      -27.52  |       0.27
       
      Note that DUSHEE wasn't super impressed with the Frogs gutty performance against Baylor, although it was in the same realm of mediocre performances that have been the high bar for the Frogs since Week 7 (Tech).  It seems the performance of an average FBS team is about as good as we can expect out of this injury-plagued ragtag bunch of misfits.  It was enough to beat Baylor.
       
      The Path to Cheez-Its: Oklahoma State
      Opp:        USA      Boise      Ttech    |  @ Kan       ISU      @ KSU     |     Tex        @ Bay       @ OU    |   WVU
      PD:        22.56      42.00     -25.67   |   15.11     -1.67       -24.89     |   10.40       -12.67       19.60   |   22.13
      YD:      286.56    127.00   -249.33   | 137.11  -54.44     -203.22    |  136.10     137.33     101.10   | 169.38
      Score:   28.79      34.09     -29.07   |    16.65    -3.72       -26.34    |     13.46        -1.85        17.92   |   22.88
       
      In the last four weeks, Okie Lite has beaten Texas and West Virginia and basically played Oklahoma to a draw.  But also in the last four weeks, they lost to the same sadsack Baylor team we just beat.  They were inexplicably pounded by Kansas State and Tech, but they, in turn, pounded Boise in a performance that looks better each week.  Oklahoma State has been wildly inconsistent, the 5th most inconsistent team in FBS.
       
      As many have pointed out, they've been far worse on the road (1.6 DUSHEE score) than at home (11.1), but the team that played in Norman two weeks ago whips anything TCU has been able to put on the field over the last 6 weeks by three scores.  Taking the whole season into account, the Frogs are 4.5-point dogs at home with a 43% chance of winning.
       
      Conference Rankings
      Despite all the talk about the mediocrity of the Big XII-II, the conference is still in a virtual tie with the B1G as the best conference that isn't the SEC.  On average, they are not nearly as mediocre as the ACC (which will have 51st ranked Pitt playing Clemson in the CCG) or the P12.  So don't be so down on the conference.  It's just the week-in-week-out slaughterhouse that we were told we'd never be able to compete in.
       
      I've complained in the past about the over inflation of the SEC, and I still argue that the conference doesn't deserve it's branding as NFL Lite, but this year, it is leaps and bounds better than any other conference.  If there was a year they deserved to have two teams in the CFP, it may be this year.
       
      And once again, I'd like to point out the ridiculousness of the American's "Power 6" ad campaign as the conference struggles to stay ahead of the Mountain West as the best Have Not conference.  And it has what is easily the worst team in FBS, the UConn Huskies.
       
      SEC  10.76
      B10    4.74
      B12     4.62
      P12     1.96
      ACC    1.77
      AAC   -2.33
      MWC -2.80
      MAC  -6.05
      CUSA -6.14
      SBC    -6.82
       
      Performances of the Week
      Top 3
      53.19 Ohio vs. Buffalo (MOV 35, YM 364)
      49.17 Auburn vs. Liberty (MOV 53, YM 397)
      43.53 Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (neutral) (MOV 33, YM 229)
       
      Bottom 3
      -54.50 Liberty at Auburn (MOV -53, YM -397)
      -48.81 UConn at ECU (MOV -34, YM -383)
      -41.15 Illinois vs. Iowa (MOV -63, YM -180)
       
      Overall Ratings
        Week 12     Rank Team P/G Y/G Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  37.36 294.09 39.01 0 0.40 2 Clemson  34.83 266.96 36.03 0 -1.01 3 Michigan  24.95 222.44 27.30 0 -1.86 4 Georgia  24.33 156.17 23.71 1 1.56 5 Oklahoma  20.12 168.05 21.47 -1 -1.64 6 Mississippi St.  17.68 137.19 18.37 7 3.24 7 Notre Dame  18.24 124.65 18.14 4 2.79 8 Texas A&M  14.21 166.18 17.45 4 2.32 9 UCF  20.05 82.40 17.32 7 3.31 10 Fresno St.  17.70 93.47 16.28 0 0.42 11 Ohio St.  14.36 131.75 15.90 -2 -0.68 12 Washington St.  14.24 131.87 15.82 8 2.52 13 Missouri  15.93 106.32 15.72 1 1.41 14 LSU  16.17 97.18 15.44 1 1.35 15 Iowa  16.37 89.65 15.21 3 1.79 16 West Virginia  15.42 93.68 14.77 -9 -2.44 17 Penn St.  16.00 81.64 14.58 -9 -2.03 18 Appalachian State 14.39 94.84 14.14 3 0.90 19 Boise St.  13.99 99.86 14.12 -2 0.51 20 Utah St.  17.25 47.14 13.76 -14 -3.50 21 Utah  13.37 98.24 13.63 3 1.18 22 Ohio  11.86 95.07 12.47 12 4.32 23 Temple  12.42 86.75 12.44 0 -0.53 24 Cincinnati  10.70 87.99 11.35 1 -0.97 25 Army  12.21 65.49 11.28 -3 -1.81 26 UAB 7.24 109.84 10.10 -7 -3.32 27 N.C. State  10.06 65.27 9.84 1 -0.78 28 North Texas  8.32 81.48 9.45 -2 -2.79 29 Washington  9.17 62.39 9.11 2 -0.36 30 Auburn  10.87 37.24 9.03 16 5.04 31 Michigan St.  8.36 71.54 9.00 -4 -2.16 32 Wisconsin  7.89 75.67 8.89 3 0.83 33 Florida  9.24 50.60 8.59 4 1.34 34 Texas  9.40 43.06 8.33 4 1.14 35 Purdue  8.28 55.67 8.19 -2 -0.37 36 Miami (FL)  7.27 67.76 8.10 0 0.18 37 Oklahoma St.  6.69 58.76 7.28 6 1.91 38 Iowa St.  8.51 24.28 6.84 -8 -2.68 39 Stanford  8.80 15.15 6.59 0 0.41 40 Kentucky  7.87 18.92 6.15 2 0.73 41 Texas Tech  5.69 40.09 5.72 -12 -3.93 42 Georgia Tech  4.74 50.06 5.56 -1 -0.24 43 Florida Atlantic  2.56 71.21 5.13 5 1.35 44 Buffalo  4.96 33.90 4.94 -12 -3.66 45 BYU  3.59 35.13 4.08 4 0.50 46 Syracuse  5.51 7.69 4.04 -6 -1.79 47 Houston  5.36 8.38 3.98 12 2.09 48 Virginia  4.06 24.33 3.87 4 0.60 49 Maryland  4.10 19.94 3.69 6 0.99 50 South Carolina  4.82 9.26 3.66 0 0.22 51 Pittsburgh  4.90 7.73 3.64 0 0.27 52 Marshall  3.26 30.46 3.63 8 1.78 53 Arizona St.  4.12 18.50 3.63 -8 -0.98 54 Oregon  3.42 21.95 3.33 9 2.03 55 Northwestern  4.95 -0.51 3.28 -1 0.32 56 Boston Coll.  4.39 0.54 2.95 -12 -2.23 57 Mississippi  -0.88 70.69 2.81 -1 0.26 58 Air Force  1.32 34.87 2.55 -11 -1.27 59 Duke  4.77 -14.51 2.48 -1 0.57 60 Memphis  2.20 19.70 2.41 1 0.67 61 Nebraska  -0.84 52.41 1.96 -8 -1.14 62 East. Michigan  1.34 11.26 1.43 -5 -0.56 63 Vanderbilt  4.48 -37.64 1.18 1 -0.10 64 Arkansas St.  -0.85 35.54 1.14 10 1.71 65 San Diego St.  -0.08 14.26 0.63 8 0.80 66 Southern Miss  -2.98 53.92 0.60 0 -0.35 67 Miami (OH)  0.82 -0.50 0.52 -2 -0.48 68 Arizona  -4.04 54.31 -0.09 -6 -1.39 69 Georgia Southern 3.98 -64.37 -0.44 9 1.91 70 TCU  -1.68 12.34 -0.53 2 -0.55 71 Troy  0.26 -15.62 -0.57 -4 -1.34 72 Minnesota  -0.68 -6.42 -0.76 -3 -1.37 73 Nevada  -1.97 8.45 -0.91 3 0.52 74 Toledo  1.56 -42.23 -0.98 1 0.04 75 Northern Illinois  0.47 -28.22 -1.04 8 2.16 76 USC  -1.41 -7.36 -1.29 -6 -1.83 77 Tennessee  -1.63 -12.10 -1.66 -9 -2.32 78 Middle Tenn. St.  0.12 -37.70 -1.73 1 0.69 79 Wyoming  -2.42 -10.58 -2.12 7 1.50 80 California  -2.58 -9.45 -2.17 0 0.55 81 Tulane  -2.68 -12.46 -2.38 -10 -2.51 82 Indiana  -3.36 -4.29 -2.44 5 1.70 83 Colorado  -4.02 -5.70 -2.95 -6 -1.27 84 UCLA  -3.71 -11.08 -3.01 -3 -0.06 85 Florida Intl.  -1.52 -60.59 -3.92 0 -0.35 86 East Carolina  -8.82 38.91 -4.01 4 1.65 87 Kansas St.  -1.57 -63.07 -4.07 7 3.05 88 W. Michigan  -8.23 27.18 -4.18 0 1.01 89 Louisiana Tech  -4.94 -25.06 -4.49 0 0.93 90 Baylor  -6.39 -6.25 -4.56 -6 -1.32 91 LA Lafayette  -4.73 -30.40 -4.61 -9 -1.49 92 Florida St.  -7.37 -14.23 -5.59 1 1.21 93 South Florida  -7.24 -33.49 -6.44 -2 -0.22 94 UNC-Charlotte -9.53 -1.93 -6.45 2 0.84 95 SMU  -5.87 -72.74 -7.40 2 0.43 96 North Carolina  -10.64 -31.74 -8.62 3 -0.04 97 Virginia Tech  -9.31 -53.56 -8.77 3 -0.07 98 Arkansas  -10.53 -36.72 -8.78 -3 -1.50 99 Kansas  -7.55 -83.07 -9.02 5 1.69 100 Wake Forest  -8.59 -68.91 -9.03 -8 -2.42 101 Navy  -8.30 -86.33 -9.67 4 1.09 102 LA Monroe  -11.55 -42.28 -9.73 -1 0.05 103 Ball St.  -9.35 -74.92 -9.83 0 0.61 104 Hawaii  -9.27 -78.07 -9.93 2 1.23 105 Coastal Carolina -11.73 -99.00 -12.57 -3 -2.57 106 Tulsa  -12.08 -96.98 -12.71 1 -1.48 107 Old Dominion -14.22 -84.80 -13.55 1 0.47 108 Liberty -13.15 -113.77 -14.23 -10 -6.05 109 Colorado St.  -17.24 -61.70 -14.46 11 4.84 110 West. Kentucky  -15.23 -99.75 -14.94 6 2.65 111 Georgia State -15.35 -107.25 -15.38 1 1.16 112 UNLV  -15.26 -112.28 -15.56 -2 -0.96 113 New Mexico  -12.49 -153.11 -15.67 -4 -1.26 114 Cent. Michigan  -17.21 -116.53 -17.07 0 0.01 115 Massachusetts -17.68 -116.00 -17.35 -2 -0.41 116 Akron  -14.66 -177.39 -18.28 -5 -3.18 117 Bowling Green  -20.14 -102.04 -18.32 5 3.44 118 Rutgers  -18.12 -137.38 -18.67 1 0.30 119 Texas St. -17.61 -152.92 -19.08 4 3.23 120 Oregon St.  -19.37 -129.43 -19.13 1 0.20 121 Louisville  -21.88 -106.34 -19.69 -3 -1.17 122 Illinois  -19.57 -138.68 -19.70 -7 -2.60 123 UTEP  -20.25 -140.14 -20.22 -6 -2.37 124 South Alabama -21.33 -144.27 -21.14 3 2.24 125 San Jose St.  -18.87 -201.83 -22.27 1 0.84 126 Kent St.  -22.19 -156.28 -22.29 -1 0.31 127 Rice  -23.36 -170.63 -23.76 -3 -1.25 128 New Mexico St.  -25.46 -178.90 -25.56 0 -1.41 129 UT-San Antonio -22.48 -227.00 -25.88 0 -0.52 130 Connecticut  -30.11 -265.93 -32.83 0 -2.81  
      By Conference
      AAC
      9 UCF  20.05 82.40 17.32 23 Temple  12.42 86.75 12.44 24 Cincinnati  10.70 87.99 11.35 47 Houston  5.36 8.38 3.98 60 Memphis  2.20 19.70 2.41 81 Tulane  -2.68 -12.46 -2.38 86 East Carolina  -8.82 38.91 -4.01 93 South Florida  -7.24 -33.49 -6.44 95 SMU  -5.87 -72.74 -7.40 101 Navy  -8.30 -86.33 -9.67 106 Tulsa  -12.08 -96.98 -12.71 130 Connecticut  -30.11 -265.93 -32.83  
      ACC
      2 Clemson  34.83 266.96 36.03 27 N.C. State  10.06 65.27 9.84 36 Miami (FL)  7.27 67.76 8.10 42 Georgia Tech  4.74 50.06 5.56 46 Syracuse  5.51 7.69 4.04 48 Virginia  4.06 24.33 3.87 51 Pittsburgh  4.90 7.73 3.64 56 Boston Coll.  4.39 0.54 2.95 59 Duke  4.77 -14.51 2.48 92 Florida St.  -7.37 -14.23 -5.59 96 North Carolina  -10.64 -31.74 -8.62 97 Virginia Tech  -9.31 -53.56 -8.77 100 Wake Forest  -8.59 -68.91 -9.03 121 Louisville  -21.88 -106.34 -19.69  
      B1G
      3 Michigan  24.95 222.44 27.30 11 Ohio St.  14.36 131.75 15.90 15 Iowa  16.37 89.65 15.21 17 Penn St.  16.00 81.64 14.58 31 Michigan St.  8.36 71.54 9.00 32 Wisconsin  7.89 75.67 8.89 35 Purdue  8.28 55.67 8.19 49 Maryland  4.10 19.94 3.69 55 Northwestern  4.95 -0.51 3.28 61 Nebraska  -0.84 52.41 1.96 72 Minnesota  -0.68 -6.42 -0.76 82 Indiana  -3.36 -4.29 -2.44 118 Rutgers  -18.12 -137.38 -18.67 122 Illinois  -19.57 -138.68 -19.70  
      BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  20.12 168.05 21.47 16 West Virginia  15.42 93.68 14.77 34 Texas  9.40 43.06 8.33 37 Oklahoma St.  6.69 58.76 7.28 38 Iowa St.  8.51 24.28 6.84 41 Texas Tech  5.69 40.09 5.72 70 TCU  -1.68 12.34 -0.53 87 Kansas St.  -1.57 -63.07 -4.07 90 Baylor  -6.39 -6.25 -4.56 99 Kansas  -7.55 -83.07 -9.02  
      CUSA
      26 UAB 7.24 109.84 10.10 28 North Texas  8.32 81.48 9.45 43 Florida Atlantic  2.56 71.21 5.13 52 Marshall  3.26 30.46 3.63 66 Southern Miss  -2.98 53.92 0.60 78 Middle Tenn. St.  0.12 -37.70 -1.73 85 Florida Intl.  -1.52 -60.59 -3.92 89 Louisiana Tech  -4.94 -25.06 -4.49 94 UNC-Charlotte -9.53 -1.93 -6.45 107 Old Dominion -14.22 -84.80 -13.55 110 West. Kentucky  -15.23 -99.75 -14.94 123 UTEP  -20.25 -140.14 -20.22 127 Rice  -23.36 -170.63 -23.76 129 UT-San Antonio -22.48 -227.00 -25.88  
      Indies
      7 Notre Dame  18.24 124.65 18.14 25 Army  12.21 65.49 11.28 45 BYU  3.59 35.13 4.08 108 Liberty -13.15 -113.77 -14.23 115 Massachusetts -17.68 -116.00 -17.35 128 New Mexico St.  -25.46 -178.90 -25.56  
      MAC
      22 Ohio  11.86 95.07 12.47 44 Buffalo  4.96 33.90 4.94 62 East. Michigan  1.34 11.26 1.43 67 Miami (OH)  0.82 -0.50 0.52 74 Toledo  1.56 -42.23 -0.98 75 Northern Illinois  0.47 -28.22 -1.04 88 W. Michigan  -8.23 27.18 -4.18 103 Ball St.  -9.35 -74.92 -9.83 114 Cent. Michigan  -17.21 -116.53 -17.07 116 Akron  -14.66 -177.39 -18.28 117 Bowling Green  -20.14 -102.04 -18.32 126 Kent St.  -22.19 -156.28 -22.29  
      MWC
      10 Fresno St.  17.70 93.47 16.28 19 Boise St.  13.99 99.86 14.12 20 Utah St.  17.25 47.14 13.76 58 Air Force  1.32 34.87 2.55 65 San Diego St.  -0.08 14.26 0.63 73 Nevada  -1.97 8.45 -0.91 79 Wyoming  -2.42 -10.58 -2.12 104 Hawaii  -9.27 -78.07 -9.93 109 Colorado St.  -17.24 -61.70 -14.46 112 UNLV  -15.26 -112.28 -15.56 113 New Mexico  -12.49 -153.11 -15.67 125 San Jose St.  -18.87 -201.83 -22.27  
      P12
      12 Washington St.  14.24 131.87 15.82 21 Utah  13.37 98.24 13.63 29 Washington  9.17 62.39 9.11 39 Stanford  8.80 15.15 6.59 53 Arizona St.  4.12 18.50 3.63 54 Oregon  3.42 21.95 3.33 68 Arizona  -4.04 54.31 -0.09 76 USC  -1.41 -7.36 -1.29 80 California  -2.58 -9.45 -2.17 83 Colorado  -4.02 -5.70 -2.95 84 UCLA  -3.71 -11.08 -3.01 120 Oregon St.  -19.37 -129.43 -19.13  
      SBC
      18 Appalachian State 14.39 94.84 14.14 64 Arkansas St.  -0.85 35.54 1.14 69 Georgia Southern 3.98 -64.37 -0.44 71 Troy  0.26 -15.62 -0.57 91 LA Lafayette  -4.73 -30.40 -4.61 102 LA Monroe  -11.55 -42.28 -9.73 105 Coastal Carolina -11.73 -99.00 -12.57 111 Georgia State -15.35 -107.25 -15.38 119 Texas St. -17.61 -152.92 -19.08 124 South Alabama -21.33 -144.27 -21.14           SEC
      1 Alabama  37.36 294.09 39.01 4 Georgia  24.33 156.17 23.71 6 Mississippi St.  17.68 137.19 18.37 8 Texas A&M  14.21 166.18 17.45 13 Missouri  15.93 106.32 15.72 14 LSU  16.17 97.18 15.44 30 Auburn  10.87 37.24 9.03 33 Florida  9.24 50.60 8.59 40 Kentucky  7.87 18.92 6.15 50 South Carolina  4.82 9.26 3.66 57 Mississippi  -0.88 70.69 2.81 63 Vanderbilt  4.48 -37.64 1.18 77 Tennessee  -1.63 -12.10 -1.66 98 Arkansas  -10.53 -36.72 -8.78  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      This week we'll bring the Extra Crispy version of DUSHEE back into the mix because the "Group of 5" made a big splash in this week's Original formula.  And while I'm reluctant to dismiss unexpected teams that rank highly just because they are unexpected (due perhaps to my own biases), this week's rankings have enough of those teams to give me some pause.  Like, say Utah State, who comes in 6th ... yes, 6th ... in this week's Original formula.
       
      Utah State pounded San Jose (effing) State this week, 62-24, outgaining them by over 400 yards.  This comes on the heels of the Aggies curbstomping Hawaii 56-17 in Week 10, and New Mexico 61-19 in Week 9.  With some exceptions, Utah State has been doing to sorry ass teams what a good team should be doing.  But Utah State has been playing A LOT of sorry ass teams.  So many of them, that they have the 4th easiest schedule in the country (127th out of 130).  They have played three above-average teams this year, and none in the last 5 games, when they have gone from 36th to 6th in the rankings.  The only legitimately good team they played this year was Michigan State (DUSHEE Score -- 11.2), to whom they lost in Week 1 38-31 in East Lansing.  Their other two games against teams with positive DUSHEE scores were a 10-point win in Week 4 against Air Force (3.8) and a 25-point win in Week 6 against BYU (3.6).  Utah State also struggled with Wyoming and avoided Fresno.  They still have to play Boise on the smurf turf.
       
      To review, the Extra Crispy DUSHEE tries to "fix" two potential problems with the Original Formula, 1) by reducing the significance of outlying performances, i.e., games where a team performs either a whole lot better or a whole lot worse than they do on average and 2) placing a greater emphasis on strength of schedule.  The Original DUSHEE doesn't neglect Strength of Schedule.  If you beat a bad team by a TD and beat a good team by a TD, your DUSHEE score against the good team will be higher.  However, if that bad team has only played other bad teams, their comparative margins of victory and yardage margins might not be as low as other bad teams who have played a tougher schedule.   Extra Crispy DUSHEE attempts to correct for this issue by giving you less credit for crushing a bad team, and conversely, punishing you less for getting crushed by a good team. 
       
      So in the Extra Crispy Formulation, Utah State comes in at what seems to be a more reasonable 22nd.  However, the Extra Crispy Formula is not without its warts and makes me uneasy for a few reasons.  One, the methodology is more complex and more difficult to justify numerically ... if you put a gun to my head and tell me to prove to you that the Extra Crispy Formula doesn't just put numbers to my own confirmation bias, go ahead and pull the trigger.  And for every Utah State that the Extra Crispy Formula knocks down, there is a middling "Power 5" team like Texas A&M or Missouri that it elevates (6th and 10th, respectively) because of their high Strength of Schedules (1st and 3rd toughest, respectively).  So I tend to stay with the Original Formula.
       
      And because the Frogs still have a pretty high SOS (13th), the Extra Crispy Formula likes them much more than the Original (53rd vs. 72nd).  The Original Formula has finally given up the notion that the Frogs are a decent, but unlucky, team.  Which gives us a nice segue to ...
       
      Frogs Week-to-Week
      Opp:       @ SMU     N OhSt     @ Tex    |   ISU      Ttech        OU   |   @ Kan      KSU       @ WVU
      PD:            23.63          7.33      -10.33   | 10.75      -0.38      -6.44 |      -7.25      -5.00       -21.57
      YD:            74.00      140.22       12.89   |161.75    65.75  -106.56 |  133.63  -125.63     -222.43
      Orig. Sc.   19.26         11.55       -6.28   |  14.85       2.87      -9.36 |       1.51      -9.30       -24.94
      XC Sc.       13.50         23.37       -1.28  |  21.72       9.94        5.56 |      -4.78    -14.47       -10.86
       
      As you can see, the Extra Crispy (XC) Formula is much gentler toward the Frogs against Ohio State, ISU, Tech, OU, and WVU.  But less impressed about SMU, Kansas, and Kansas State.
       
      Frogs Next Opponent (Rapey Bears)
      Opp:     UTSA    Duke     Kan   |    OU        KSU      Tex  |      WVU      OkSt        ISU
      PD:        -0.89  -10.13   15.25  | -15.33    -2.75    -0.33  |  -29.57       8.75      -8.38
      YD:       68.33  -40.38 110.00  | 12.33   -14.25  -60.44 | -185.86    -89.25   194.38
      Orig        2.65    -8.67   15.39  |  -9.64     -2.51    -3.09  |   -28.54      1.60        3.64
      XC        -13.69    -7.78     8.28  |    6.01    -7.41     1.15  |    -15.73      4.29       9.67
       
      So you could argue that TCU's better performances have been better than Baptist's, but as we've repeated each week, those good TCU performances now seem like a whole other season ago.  Baptist at least has shown some signs of life of late, which is more than we can say about the Frogs.
       
      Using Original DUSHEE, Baptist is a 1-point favorite at home and the Frogs have a 48% chance of winning.  I will acknowledge that that seems overly auspicious about our chances.
       
      Performances of the Week
      Notes for all three top performances -- Our Frogs gave up the top performance so we have that going for us, which is nice.  Minnesota followed up the worst performance of Week 10 with the second best performance of Week 11.  As you might expect, Minnesota has an extremely high standard deviation in Point Differential (28.7), second highest, in fact, behind only Louisiana-Monroe.  And finally, Clemson has had one of the top 3 performances for SIX of the NINE FBS games they have played.  Alabama has had a top 3 performance in 5 of 10 games.
       
      And Virginia Tech fans may be the only fans in the country more disappointed in their season than Frog fans.
       
      Top 3
      38.91 West Virginia vs. TCU (37 MOV, 313 YM)
      38.33 Minnesota vs. Purdue (31 MOV, 182 YM)
      35.66 Clemson at BC (20 MOV, 311 YM)
       
      Bottom 3
      -49.34 Colorado St. at Nevada (-39 MOV, -376 YM)
      -43.07 South Alabama vs. ULaMon (-28 MOV, -333 YM)
      -37.88 Virginia Tech at Pitt (-30 MOV, -222 YM)
       
      Original DUSHEE Ratings
      The biggest risers of this week were Pitt (up 16 spots to 51st) and Old Dominion (up 4.46 points after a surprise 34-31 win over North Texas).  The biggest drops of the week were the Frogs (down 22 spots to 72nd) and Purdue (down 5.34 points after losing to Minnesota).
       
        Week 11     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  37.18 292.21 38.61 0 -0.27 2 Clemson  35.43 283.57 37.04 0 -1.47 3 Michigan  27.07 234.88 29.17 0 -2.05 4 Oklahoma  21.18 190.07 23.12 0 -2.25 5 Georgia  23.39 138.51 22.15 0 0.29 6 Utah St.  20.23 79.84 17.26 8 1.68 7 West Virginia  18.04 109.60 17.21 14 3.46 8 Penn St.  18.55 89.66 16.61 2 0.39 9 Ohio St.  15.76 128.29 16.58 0 -0.28 10 Fresno St.  18.01 81.59 15.87 2 -0.17 11 Notre Dame  15.19 110.27 15.35 8 1.06 12 Texas A&M  11.19 162.10 15.13 -5 -1.79 13 Mississippi St.  14.34 117.64 15.13 2 0.00 14 Missouri  14.38 99.87 14.31 -6 -2.61 15 LSU  15.78 75.35 14.09 -9 -3.16 16 UCF  16.31 66.31 14.01 1 -0.56 17 Boise St.  13.05 103.64 13.61 14 2.63 18 Iowa  13.23 97.38 13.43 -5 -2.45 19 UAB 11.20 125.68 13.42 -1 -1.06 20 Washington St.  11.33 121.38 13.30 6 1.27 21 Appalachian State 13.73 86.53 13.25 6 1.27 22 Army  13.86 81.41 13.09 1 0.14 23 Temple  12.92 91.96 12.97 -1 -0.52 24 Utah  12.46 87.53 12.45 4 0.87 25 Cincinnati  12.14 89.41 12.32 4 0.88 26 North Texas  11.34 98.97 12.25 -15 -3.89 27 Michigan St.  10.87 82.78 11.16 -3 -1.28 28 N.C. State  10.25 79.97 10.62 -12 -3.97 29 Texas Tech  8.95 77.85 9.65 1 -1.71 30 Iowa St.  10.45 53.85 9.51 -5 -2.87 31 Washington  9.60 64.71 9.47 2 -0.40 32 Buffalo  7.84 71.20 8.60 7 0.96 33 Purdue  8.58 60.17 8.57 -13 -5.34 34 Ohio  8.51 52.25 8.15 2 -0.64 35 Wisconsin  7.22 68.72 8.06 -1 -1.32 36 Miami (FL)  6.17 80.29 7.91 -1 -0.97 37 Florida  7.96 41.07 7.25 1 -0.47 38 Texas  8.63 30.29 7.19 -1 -1.30 39 Stanford  8.31 13.62 6.19 3 0.17 40 Syracuse  7.57 16.61 5.84 3 -0.08 41 Georgia Tech  4.29 62.10 5.80 5 1.02 42 Kentucky  6.29 25.88 5.42 -10 -4.95 43 Oklahoma St.  4.95 43.77 5.37 5 1.46 44 Boston Coll.  6.53 17.46 5.18 -3 -1.30 45 Arizona St.  4.45 34.71 4.61 -5 -2.14 46 Auburn  6.18 -2.64 4.00 -2 -1.52 47 Air Force  3.00 38.41 3.82 14 3.15 48 Florida Atlantic  1.03 65.20 3.77 11 2.65 49 BYU  2.96 33.93 3.58 2 0.50 50 South Carolina  4.42 10.49 3.44 -5 -1.55 51 Pittsburgh  5.12 -0.90 3.37 16 3.49 52 Virginia  4.14 10.85 3.27 2 1.11 53 Nebraska  -0.06 66.38 3.10 -4 -0.57 54 Northwestern  4.35 1.21 2.95 -1 0.22 55 Maryland  2.49 22.12 2.71 -3 -0.06 56 Mississippi  -0.46 60.33 2.55 -9 -1.78 57 East. Michigan  1.79 16.92 2.00 6 1.48 58 Duke  4.69 -25.80 1.91 -1 0.21 59 Houston  2.82 0.18 1.89 -4 -0.22 60 Marshall  1.97 11.38 1.85 6 1.95 61 Memphis  1.46 16.14 1.74 10 2.98 62 Arizona  -2.20 58.47 1.30 -6 -0.63 63 Oregon  1.91 0.51 1.30 -3 0.58 64 Vanderbilt  4.14 -31.18 1.28 -2 0.72 65 Miami (OH)  0.53 13.58 1.00 7 2.47 66 Southern Miss  -3.25 65.92 0.95 2 1.16 67 Troy  0.98 2.34 0.76 8 2.74 68 Tennessee  0.88 1.52 0.66 5 2.37 69 Minnesota  0.63 4.04 0.61 11 4.01 70 USC  0.45 5.10 0.54 -6 0.41 71 Tulane  0.32 -1.85 0.12 -6 0.02 72 TCU  -1.03 14.85 0.02 -22 -3.09 73 San Diego St.  -1.34 15.29 -0.17 -15 -1.41 74 Arkansas St.  -2.40 21.74 -0.57 4 2.26 75 Toledo  1.10 -37.06 -1.02 -5 -0.54 76 Nevada  -1.86 -4.07 -1.43 14 4.04 77 Colorado  -3.19 9.30 -1.68 -8 -1.29 78 Georgia Southern 3.00 -91.72 -2.34 -4 -0.46 79 Middle Tenn. St.  0.09 -52.44 -2.42 9 2.55 80 California  -3.18 -12.75 -2.72 -1 0.25 81 UCLA  -3.76 -9.39 -2.95 -5 -0.49 82 LA Lafayette  -4.13 -7.77 -3.12 -1 0.38 83 Northern Illinois  -0.73 -57.38 -3.20 6 1.83 84 Baylor  -4.82 -0.57 -3.24 0 1.12 85 Florida Intl.  -1.55 -53.57 -3.57 10 3.23 86 Wyoming  -4.51 -13.04 -3.62 -9 -0.85 87 Indiana  -5.37 -11.95 -4.15 -1 0.48 88 W. Michigan  -8.48 9.81 -5.19 5 0.79 89 Louisiana Tech  -5.22 -40.98 -5.42 -6 -1.07 90 East Carolina  -10.54 29.01 -5.66 -5 -1.16 91 South Florida  -6.96 -33.13 -6.21 6 1.15 92 Wake Forest  -6.49 -48.35 -6.61 7 2.09 93 Florida St.  -8.73 -20.85 -6.80 1 -0.81 94 Kansas St.  -3.96 -94.69 -7.12 -2 -1.27 95 Arkansas  -8.70 -31.24 -7.28 -4 -1.80 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.44 -6.90 -7.28 0 -0.37 97 SMU  -6.13 -79.15 -7.84 -10 -3.00 98 Liberty -7.51 -67.04 -8.18 0 -0.70 99 North Carolina  -10.46 -33.94 -8.58 1 0.29 100 Virginia Tech  -8.05 -70.49 -8.70 -18 -4.61 101 LA Monroe  -11.66 -42.36 -9.78 5 1.90 102 Coastal Carolina -10.38 -65.22 -10.01 -1 -0.85 103 Ball St.  -10.69 -70.04 -10.44 -1 0.05 104 Kansas  -8.71 -103.64 -10.71 -1 -0.18 105 Navy  -9.38 -95.23 -10.76 4 3.37 106 Hawaii  -10.26 -91.26 -11.16 -1 0.43 107 Tulsa  -10.55 -88.60 -11.23 -3 -0.52 108 Old Dominion -14.52 -91.62 -14.02 11 4.46 109 New Mexico  -10.75 -153.19 -14.42 -2 -2.26 110 UNLV  -14.68 -101.65 -14.60 6 3.28 111 Akron  -11.34 -159.42 -15.10 -3 -1.01 112 Georgia State -16.79 -113.08 -16.55 2 0.17 113 Massachusetts -17.51 -111.24 -16.94 0 -0.95 114 Cent. Michigan  -17.26 -117.67 -17.08 -3 -1.68 115 Illinois  -15.62 -141.31 -17.10 -3 -1.37 116 West. Kentucky  -18.61 -109.50 -17.59 -1 0.15 117 UTEP  -17.19 -135.03 -17.85 1 0.44 118 Louisville  -20.04 -108.95 -18.52 -1 -0.46 119 Rutgers  -18.64 -138.45 -18.98 2 1.59 120 Colorado St.  -21.46 -105.47 -19.30 -10 -4.65 121 Oregon St.  -19.62 -131.96 -19.32 -1 -0.82 122 Bowling Green  -23.86 -123.77 -21.76 5 2.61 123 Texas St. -20.23 -186.41 -22.31 3 1.26 124 Rice  -23.03 -151.14 -22.51 0 0.41 125 Kent St.  -22.12 -166.06 -22.60 -3 -0.47 126 San Jose St.  -20.65 -197.37 -23.11 -1 0.08 127 South Alabama -22.79 -173.13 -23.39 -4 -1.17 128 New Mexico St.  -23.76 -175.40 -24.14 0 0.49 129 UT-San Antonio -22.78 -214.87 -25.36 0 -0.61 130 Connecticut  -27.39 -248.43 -30.02 0 1.59  
      Original DUSHEE By Conference
      AAC
      16 UCF  16.31 66.31 14.01 23 Temple  12.92 91.96 12.97 25 Cincinnati  12.14 89.41 12.32 59 Houston  2.82 0.18 1.89 61 Memphis  1.46 16.14 1.74 71 Tulane  0.32 -1.85 0.12 90 East Carolina  -10.54 29.01 -5.66 91 South Florida  -6.96 -33.13 -6.21 97 SMU  -6.13 -79.15 -7.84 105 Navy  -9.38 -95.23 -10.76 107 Tulsa  -10.55 -88.60 -11.23 130 Connecticut  -27.39 -248.43 -30.02  
      ACC
      2 Clemson  35.43 283.57 37.04 28 N.C. State  10.25 79.97 10.62 36 Miami (FL)  6.17 80.29 7.91 40 Syracuse  7.57 16.61 5.84 41 Georgia Tech  4.29 62.10 5.80 44 Boston Coll.  6.53 17.46 5.18 51 Pittsburgh  5.12 -0.90 3.37 52 Virginia  4.14 10.85 3.27 58 Duke  4.69 -25.80 1.91 92 Wake Forest  -6.49 -48.35 -6.61 93 Florida St.  -8.73 -20.85 -6.80 99 North Carolina  -10.46 -33.94 -8.58 100 Virginia Tech  -8.05 -70.49 -8.70 118 Louisville  -20.04 -108.95 -18.52  
      B1G
      3 Michigan  27.07 234.88 29.17 8 Penn St.  18.55 89.66 16.61 9 Ohio St.  15.76 128.29 16.58 18 Iowa  13.23 97.38 13.43 27 Michigan St.  10.87 82.78 11.16 33 Purdue  8.58 60.17 8.57 35 Wisconsin  7.22 68.72 8.06 53 Nebraska  -0.06 66.38 3.10 54 Northwestern  4.35 1.21 2.95 55 Maryland  2.49 22.12 2.71 69 Minnesota  0.63 4.04 0.61 87 Indiana  -5.37 -11.95 -4.15 115 Illinois  -15.62 -141.31 -17.10 119 Rutgers  -18.64 -138.45 -18.98  
      BXII-II
      4 Oklahoma  21.18 190.07 23.12 7 West Virginia  18.04 109.60 17.21 29 Texas Tech  8.95 77.85 9.65 30 Iowa St.  10.45 53.85 9.51 38 Texas  8.63 30.29 7.19 43 Oklahoma St.  4.95 43.77 5.37 72 TCU  -1.03 14.85 0.02 84 Baylor  -4.82 -0.57 -3.24 94 Kansas St.  -3.96 -94.69 -7.12 104 Kansas  -8.71 -103.64 -10.71  
      CUSA
      19 UAB 11.20 125.68 13.42 26 North Texas  11.34 98.97 12.25 48 Florida Atlantic  1.03 65.20 3.77 60 Marshall  1.97 11.38 1.85 66 Southern Miss  -3.25 65.92 0.95 79 Middle Tenn. St.  0.09 -52.44 -2.42 85 Florida Intl.  -1.55 -53.57 -3.57 89 Louisiana Tech  -5.22 -40.98 -5.42 96 UNC-Charlotte -10.44 -6.90 -7.28 108 Old Dominion -14.52 -91.62 -14.02 116 West. Kentucky  -18.61 -109.50 -17.59 117 UTEP  -17.19 -135.03 -17.85 124 Rice  -23.03 -151.14 -22.51 129 UT-San Antonio -22.78 -214.87 -25.36  
      Indies
      11 Notre Dame  15.19 110.27 15.35 22 Army  13.86 81.41 13.09 49 BYU  2.96 33.93 3.58 98 Liberty -7.51 -67.04 -8.18 113 Massachusetts -17.51 -111.24 -16.94 128 New Mexico St.  -23.76 -175.40 -24.14  
      MAC
      32 Buffalo  7.84 71.20 8.60 34 Ohio  8.51 52.25 8.15 57 East. Michigan  1.79 16.92 2.00 65 Miami (OH)  0.53 13.58 1.00 75 Toledo  1.10 -37.06 -1.02 83 Northern Illinois  -0.73 -57.38 -3.20 88 W. Michigan  -8.48 9.81 -5.19 103 Ball St.  -10.69 -70.04 -10.44 111 Akron  -11.34 -159.42 -15.10 114 Cent. Michigan  -17.26 -117.67 -17.08 122 Bowling Green  -23.86 -123.77 -21.76 125 Kent St.  -22.12 -166.06 -22.60  
      MWC
      6 Utah St.  20.23 79.84 17.26 10 Fresno St.  18.01 81.59 15.87 17 Boise St.  13.05 103.64 13.61 47 Air Force  3.00 38.41 3.82 73 San Diego St.  -1.34 15.29 -0.17 76 Nevada  -1.86 -4.07 -1.43 86 Wyoming  -4.51 -13.04 -3.62 106 Hawaii  -10.26 -91.26 -11.16 109 New Mexico  -10.75 -153.19 -14.42 110 UNLV  -14.68 -101.65 -14.60 120 Colorado St.  -21.46 -105.47 -19.30 126 San Jose St.  -20.65 -197.37 -23.11  
      P12
      20 Washington St.  11.33 121.38 13.30 24 Utah  12.46 87.53 12.45 31 Washington  9.60 64.71 9.47 39 Stanford  8.31 13.62 6.19 45 Arizona St.  4.45 34.71 4.61 62 Arizona  -2.20 58.47 1.30 63 Oregon  1.91 0.51 1.30 70 USC  0.45 5.10 0.54 77 Colorado  -3.19 9.30 -1.68 80 California  -3.18 -12.75 -2.72 81 UCLA  -3.76 -9.39 -2.95 121 Oregon St.  -19.62 -131.96 -19.32  
      SBC
      21 Appalachian State 13.73 86.53 13.25 67 Troy  0.98 2.34 0.76 74 Arkansas St.  -2.40 21.74 -0.57 78 Georgia Southern 3.00 -91.72 -2.34 82 LA Lafayette  -4.13 -7.77 -3.12 101 LA Monroe  -11.66 -42.36 -9.78 102 Coastal Carolina -10.38 -65.22 -10.01 112 Georgia State -16.79 -113.08 -16.55 123 Texas St. -20.23 -186.41 -22.31 127 South Alabama -22.79 -173.13 -23.39  
      SEC
      1 Alabama  37.18 292.21 38.61 5 Georgia  23.39 138.51 22.15 12 Texas A&M  11.19 162.10 15.13 13 Mississippi St.  14.34 117.64 15.13 14 Missouri  14.38 99.87 14.31 15 LSU  15.78 75.35 14.09 37 Florida  7.96 41.07 7.25 42 Kentucky  6.29 25.88 5.42 46 Auburn  6.18 -2.64 4.00 50 South Carolina  4.42 10.49 3.44 56 Mississippi  -0.46 60.33 2.55 64 Vanderbilt  4.14 -31.18 1.28 68 Tennessee  0.88 1.52 0.66 95 Arkansas  -8.70 -31.24 -7.28  
      Extra Crispy Overall Ratings
      Rank Team PD YD Score 1 Alabama  40.39 292.12 43.71 2 Clemson  36.57 293.38 41.24 3 Michigan  29.77 237.99 33.52 4 Georgia  29.19 153.38 28.27 5 Oklahoma  24.45 183.68 26.85 6 Texas A&M  20.89 157.66 22.99 7 West Virginia  18.91 165.36 22.10 8 Mississippi St.  21.96 126.03 21.88 9 Penn St.  23.81 88.23 20.94 10 Missouri  23.36 92.78 20.91 11 LSU  25.13 64.44 20.46 12 Ohio St.  16.10 125.33 17.94 13 Iowa  17.89 96.67 17.48 14 Michigan St.  18.48 77.24 16.76 15 Notre Dame  15.11 111.95 16.51 16 Utah  15.97 81.63 15.34 17 Temple  14.84 93.95 15.29 18 Texas Tech  15.46 73.16 14.51 19 Fresno St.  14.31 81.93 14.25 20 Army  13.57 78.85 13.58 21 N.C. State  13.24 80.79 13.47 22 Utah St.  12.36 83.70 13.05 23 Purdue  13.66 66.58 12.93 24 Washington St.  8.02 128.90 12.75 25 Boise St.  10.53 91.54 12.28 26 UCF  12.35 61.34 11.75 27 Florida  14.50 35.23 11.69 28 Washington  12.27 60.71 11.67 29 Cincinnati  8.20 91.65 10.73 30 Kentucky  13.42 29.93 10.67 31 Appalachian State 7.51 93.23 10.36 32 UAB 4.11 130.08 10.21 33 Texas  12.26 31.06 9.96 34 Iowa St.  14.69 0.53 9.82 35 Stanford  12.57 19.70 9.51 36 Auburn  14.36 -4.19 9.33 37 Miami (FL)  7.04 77.42 9.14 38 North Texas  4.94 100.39 9.06 39 Wisconsin  7.34 67.68 8.78 40 Oklahoma St.  7.14 61.38 8.29 41 Nebraska  5.15 71.59 7.54 42 Pittsburgh  11.01 2.13 7.46 43 South Carolina  10.75 -2.80 7.00 44 Northwestern  10.11 1.21 6.81 45 Boston Coll.  9.47 7.64 6.75 46 Buffalo  3.03 70.95 6.10 47 BYU  4.86 43.87 5.76 48 Georgia Tech  2.71 61.74 5.35 49 Air Force  3.70 46.04 5.11 50 Tennessee  9.02 -19.55 4.89 51 Mississippi  3.04 49.16 4.85 52 TCU  5.27 21.29 4.74 53 Vanderbilt  10.08 -34.57 4.74 54 Ohio  1.13 61.17 4.27 55 Syracuse  4.75 14.05 3.98 56 Florida Atlantic  0.30 64.03 3.88 57 Arizona St.  3.23 27.78 3.75 58 Maryland  3.68 20.18 3.61 59 Minnesota  2.54 25.91 3.18 60 Duke  6.52 -25.42 2.89 61 Virginia  3.18 1.43 2.20 62 UCLA  3.49 -6.18 1.97 63 USC  1.14 17.89 1.79 64 Arizona  -3.49 58.86 1.05 65 Oregon  1.50 0.52 1.03 66 East. Michigan  -0.41 16.88 0.69 67 Miami (OH)  -1.34 19.02 0.20 68 Marshall  -1.23 12.09 -0.12 69 Tulane  0.79 -17.55 -0.48 70 Houston  -1.66 1.96 -0.99 71 Southern Miss  -7.53 68.39 -1.09 72 San Diego St.  -3.97 22.18 -1.37 73 Baylor  -2.39 -1.62 -1.69 74 Nevada  -3.34 4.92 -1.94 75 Toledo  0.26 -39.08 -2.07 76 Indiana  -2.00 -16.86 -2.30 77 California  -2.52 -14.25 -2.50 78 Arkansas St.  -5.78 22.57 -2.56 79 Memphis  -5.98 23.49 -2.63 80 Colorado  -4.12 -2.98 -2.92 81 LA Lafayette  -4.05 -7.95 -3.16 82 Troy  -5.20 3.54 -3.26 83 Arkansas  -2.36 -31.08 -3.36 84 Wyoming  -4.96 -15.15 -4.18 85 Northern Illinois  -1.67 -54.60 -4.25 86 Florida St.  -4.61 -24.08 -4.46 87 East Carolina  -10.17 40.14 -4.47 88 Middle Tenn. St.  -2.99 -49.62 -4.84 89 Wake Forest  -3.34 -47.64 -4.96 90 W. Michigan  -9.41 7.24 -5.86 91 Kansas St.  -1.05 -96.03 -6.22 92 SMU  -2.80 -89.15 -6.99 93 Georgia Southern -2.56 -92.11 -7.00 94 Louisiana Tech  -8.36 -37.36 -7.72 95 Navy  -4.57 -94.74 -8.49 96 UNC-Charlotte -12.77 -10.14 -9.10 97 North Carolina  -10.75 -34.34 -9.14 98 Virginia Tech  -7.89 -70.60 -9.32 99 Florida Intl.  -11.27 -46.91 -10.21 100 South Florida  -13.74 -33.51 -11.08 101 LA Monroe  -16.51 -25.70 -12.48 102 Kansas  -9.49 -109.38 -12.61 103 Liberty -13.45 -65.00 -12.70 104 Coastal Carolina -13.87 -62.46 -12.83 105 Tulsa  -12.50 -99.13 -14.03 106 Hawaii  -13.30 -91.37 -14.12 107 Ball St.  -15.45 -68.49 -14.24 108 UNLV  -16.62 -59.82 -14.52 109 Louisville  -12.87 -108.09 -14.79 110 Old Dominion -17.94 -80.79 -16.60 111 Akron  -13.71 -157.97 -18.22 112 Oregon St.  -15.58 -152.98 -19.17 113 Rutgers  -17.53 -144.30 -19.98 114 New Mexico  -13.66 -195.80 -20.35 115 Cent. Michigan  -21.07 -117.43 -20.79 116 Illinois  -17.34 -161.96 -20.86 117 West. Kentucky  -23.42 -109.29 -21.89 118 Colorado St.  -25.98 -87.91 -22.37 119 Georgia State -22.26 -135.10 -22.60 120 Massachusetts -22.80 -134.45 -22.92 121 UTEP  -24.75 -123.17 -23.58 122 Bowling Green  -26.89 -112.15 -24.37 123 South Alabama -25.03 -167.36 -26.30 124 Rice  -27.08 -150.05 -26.67 125 Kent St.  -25.54 -171.39 -26.87 126 San Jose St.  -23.31 -203.40 -27.23 127 New Mexico St.  -29.91 -168.81 -29.64 128 Connecticut  -26.75 -229.02 -30.99 129            Texas St.                        -32.17    -179.12        -31.74
      130            UT-San Antonio             -29.23    -216.10        -31.90
       
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