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  • Blog Entries

    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      DUSHEE still loves it some Ohio State.  The Buckeyes remain firmly in first place, despite their loss to Oklahoma.  In fact, OSU has had a top 3 DUSHEE score each of the last 5 weeks.  Here are their week-to-week totals (rows are opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score.)
       
      @ Ind  OU  Army  UNLV @ Rut  Mary @ Neb 31.50 4.40 41.40 38.25 51.50 41.25 43.17 165.75 82.60
      376.80 403.75 363.25 441.25 262.33 29.29 7.06 46.45 45.70 52.50 49.57 41.90  
      Ohio State's score against Oklahoma was pretty low, relatively speaking (although still 7-points better than an Oklahoma's average opponent).  But their scores against their last 5 opponents have been so garish that the OU loss is overwhelmed by the statistics.  OU was just one out of 7 games.  Given, Ohio State's schedule strength isn't all that great (45th), but even in the extra-crispy DUSHEE that puts greater emphasis on schedule strength (but diminishes the significance of statistical outliers, which the OU game is emerging as), Ohio State is ranked first.
       
      Clemson only dropped a spot after losing to Syracuse, but did lose almost 7 points on their DUSHEE score; they had a large enough cushion over the rest of the pack that they didn't lose that much ground.  And keep in mind as we progress through the season, each game played reduces the contribution of any one particular game to the DUSHEE score.  A loss in week 5 is going to hurt a team more than a loss in week 12.
       
      The Frogs didn't move in rankings, remaining at 8th.  UCF fell below them, but the Frogs were vaulted by ... Oklahoma State.  Yes, I know, the Frogs beat them.  And going based on point differential alone, the Frogs are ranked 4th, well ahead of both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.  And the Frogs are 6th in the extra-crispy DUSHEE.  But in the original formulation, the Frogs are hurt a little by their yardage differential.
       
      Below are the week-to-week numbers for the Frogs, Cowboys, and Sooners.  On average, both Oklahoma schools end up slightly above the Frogs.
       
      TCU
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU   9.25 33.25 45.00   22.50 32.00   43.00 239.00 254.00   -45.50 216.25   8.32 34.12 42.70   12.72 32.15 OkSt
       Tulsa @ USA @ Pitt  TCU @ Ttech    Bay 35.33 28.75 32.80 4.00 18.25   32.50 104.50 221.25 256.20 114.75 354.75   284.75 28.78 30.23 34.68 8.41 29.91   35.91 OU
       UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex 27.33 54.67 47.75 -11.25   7.75 16.80 311.00 481.33 338.25 -32.75   142.50 203.80 33.78 60.52 48.75 -9.14   12.29 21.39  
      Conference Rankings
      B10 10.63 B12 9.50 ACC 8.99 P12 6.93 SEC 4.46 AAC -0.67 MWC -6.87 CUSA -11.51 SBC -11.55 MAC -11.71  
      Strength of Schedule
      Mary 16.10545 FSU 15.69002 Ind 14.01613 Ark 11.86324 Bay 10.93841 Pitt 10.56787 Mizz 10.01387 BC 9.395117 OreSt 8.946779 ASU 8.864265 TCU 8.115209  
      Top 3 Week 7 Performances
      49.09 Stanford vs. Oregon (49-7 point margin, 507-309 yardage margin)
      45.10 Cal vs. Washington State (37-3 PM, 365-337 YM)
      41.90 Ohio State @ Nebraska (56-14 PM, 633-393 YM)
       
      Bottom 3 Week 7 Performances
      -40.46 Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss (35-57 PM, 417-603 YM)
      -39.61 New Mexico @ Fresno (0-38 PM, 322-526 YM)
      -38.16 UNC-Charlotte @ W. Kentucky (14-45 PM, 309-627 YM)
       
      Overall Rankings
      Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  35.92 299.39 38.92 0 -1.84 2 Alabama  35.12 259.86 36.41 0 -0.15 3 Penn St.  35.89 169.69 32.41 1 -0.31 4 Clemson  26.84 229.44 29.37 -1 -6.79 5 Oklahoma St.  25.27 222.70 27.99 4 2.19 6 Oklahoma  23.84 240.69 27.93 -1 -3.40 7 Georgia  25.93 186.32 26.60 -1 -1.90 8 TCU  28.40 141.35 26.00 0 -0.94 9 Notre Dame  27.34 146.55 25.56 1 0.11 10 UCF  25.74 141.33 24.23 -3 -3.09 11 Wisconsin  23.09 171.96 24.00 0 -1.13 12 Auburn  18.13 142.20 19.20 0 -2.94 13 Michigan St.  15.20 167.00 18.49 3 -1.08 14 Miami (FL)  20.28 87.34 17.89 3 -1.30 15 Washington  19.22 96.94 17.66 3 -0.98 16 USC  16.40 124.96 17.18 3 0.64 17 Michigan  12.00 168.33 16.42 -3 -4.07 18 Virginia Tech  14.41 134.32 16.32 -3 -3.29 19 Stanford  19.11 63.31 15.90 9 3.12 20 Georgia Tech  8.30 197.18 15.40 7 2.11 21 Mississippi St.  11.13 143.49 14.60 0 -1.51 22 N.C. State  12.75 116.82 14.35 1 -0.51 23 Texas Tech  11.51 127.75 14.06 -3 -2.47 24 Iowa St.  16.46 53.35 13.64 0 -1.09 25 Florida St.  12.62 103.17 13.58 -3 -1.79 26 Arizona  12.10 94.38 12.79 0 -0.59 27 Iowa  19.03 -3.16 12.53 9 1.83 28 South Florida  10.22 107.19 12.17 6 1.38 29 Indiana  11.14 94.81 12.17 2 0.15 30 Texas  11.03 84.66 11.58 8 1.71 31 Washington St.  7.53 128.32 11.44 -18 -10.02 32 West Virginia  9.70 73.39 10.14 1 -0.91 33 Purdue  12.48 33.42 9.99 -4 -2.67 34 Memphis  12.54 26.57 9.69 5 0.29 35 San Diego St.  10.33 43.95 9.09 0 -1.67 36 SMU  10.51 26.48 8.33 11 1.80 37 Texas A&M  9.64 38.12 8.33 -7 -4.09 38 Wake Forest  9.88 32.35 8.21 4 0.17 39 Arizona St.  7.61 43.09 7.23 15 3.33 40 Louisville  1.88 107.79 6.65 -8 -4.64 41 North Texas  2.04 103.75 6.55 19 5.28 42 Colorado St.  4.60 68.20 6.48 -1 -2.02 43 Syracuse  2.11 100.43 6.43 16 4.95 44 Fresno St.  4.54 64.31 6.24 31 8.52 45 Utah  7.82 17.07 6.07 10 2.51 46 Boise St.  6.21 28.38 5.56 -2 -1.78 47 Virginia  3.85 59.54 5.54 -1 -1.27 48 Oregon  2.88 69.46 5.39 -23 -8.71 49 LSU  1.93 80.27 5.30 18 5.82 50 UCLA  4.80 31.72 4.78 -5 -2.15 51 Northwestern  4.81 28.49 4.63 0 -0.75 52 Houston  3.71 14.64 3.21 -15 -6.98 53 Southern Miss  -0.04 61.82 3.07 -5 -3.44 54 Navy  3.76 1.23 2.57 2 -0.14 55 UT-San Antonio -2.93 87.25 2.41 -5 -3.24 56 Nebraska  0.55 34.19 2.08 2 -0.14 57 Duke  0.41 26.44 1.59 -14 -5.90 58 W. Michigan  3.74 -22.44 1.37 -1 -0.85 59 Minnesota  2.81 -14.23 1.16 5 1.23 60 California  2.62 -16.98 0.90 28 7.62 61 Appalachian State 0.56 5.71 0.66 0 0.21 62 Toledo  1.24 -14.83 0.09 15 3.66 63 Colorado  1.65 -26.76 -0.24 -23 -9.56 64 Arkansas  -2.14 15.68 -0.64 6 0.84 65 Boston Coll.  -0.32 -9.78 -0.70 1 -0.23 66 Cincinnati  -3.18 27.95 -0.72 8 1.38 67 Maryland  2.60 -49.39 -0.73 -18 -6.43 68 Georgia State -3.79 34.30 -0.81 13 3.79 69 Florida  0.11 -33.93 -1.62 10 2.13 70 Pittsburgh  -2.70 2.97 -1.65 -2 -0.94 71 Army  -0.17 -30.84 -1.66 5 0.86 72 South Carolina  1.70 -72.84 -2.51 -7 -2.20 73 Florida Atlantic  1.49 -77.71 -2.89 -1 -1.22 74 Tennessee  -3.05 -18.45 -2.95 -1 -0.94 75 Northern Illinois  -3.69 -11.53 -3.03 3 0.65 76 Kentucky  2.72 -100.60 -3.22 4 1.31 77 Tulane  -1.10 -55.46 -3.51 -24 -7.56 78 Air Force  -4.99 -10.08 -3.83 -15 -3.77 79 Louisiana Tech  -4.82 -19.78 -4.20 18 6.13 80 Marshall  -3.13 -45.81 -4.38 9 3.12 81 Buffalo  -0.67 -88.56 -4.87 9 2.70 82 East. Michigan  -3.86 -51.03 -5.12 13 3.85 83 Baylor  -6.46 -16.90 -5.15 -31 -10.03 84 Kansas St.  -0.71 -95.25 -5.24 -22 -5.63 85 Troy  -6.36 -25.62 -5.52 -14 -3.97 86 Tulsa  -1.84 -100.81 -6.27 14 6.26 87 New Mexico  -9.13 -5.69 -6.37 -18 -4.93 88 North Carolina  -5.96 -63.20 -7.13 3 0.62 89 Arkansas St.  -2.73 -107.38 -7.19 19 10.51 90 UNLV  -4.86 -80.14 -7.25 -7 -1.26 91 Mississippi  -7.60 -44.64 -7.30 10 5.55 92 LA Monroe  -6.53 -64.14 -7.56 -8 -1.10 93 UAB -12.30 -5.57 -8.48 3 1.29 94 Temple  -9.16 -54.39 -8.83 -9 -2.23 95 New Mexico St.  -13.98 8.03 -8.92 -8 -2.23 96 Coastal Carolina -13.52 -1.62 -9.09 -14 -3.54 97 Rutgers  -8.33 -78.97 -9.51 -11 -2.86 98 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.83 -41.30 -9.95 1 2.14 99 Ohio  -7.49 -99.35 -9.96 -5 -1.68 100 Miami (OH)  -14.23 -41.73 -11.58 -8 -3.80 101 West. Kentucky  -11.60 -81.82 -11.83 13 7.91 102 Nevada  -11.38 -86.86 -11.93 11 7.32 103 Akron  -5.80 -178.48 -12.79 1 3.54 104 Utah St.  -10.81 -127.46 -13.58 -2 1.38 105 Illinois  -12.10 -113.85 -13.76 -7 -2.48 106 Vanderbilt  -10.03 -144.68 -13.93 -13 -5.94 107 Idaho  -14.02 -94.44 -14.07 8 7.96 108 Florida Intl.  -15.76 -75.56 -14.29 8 7.89 109 Wyoming  -9.96 -173.72 -15.33 -4 1.15 110 Missouri  -13.51 -135.28 -15.78 -7 -0.56 111 Oregon St.  -19.46 -59.89 -15.97 -4 1.33 112 LA Lafayette  -14.80 -132.24 -16.48 -1 2.15 113 Massachusetts -20.98 -64.28 -17.20 -1 1.64 114 Cent. Michigan  -19.37 -87.81 -17.30 -5 0.47 115 Ball St.  -20.39 -94.12 -18.30 2 4.05 116 South Alabama -17.35 -135.48 -18.34 9 11.12 117 Hawaii  -23.18 -63.53 -18.63 -11 -2.08 118 BYU  -17.44 -178.33 -20.55 -8 -2.47 119 East Carolina  -22.40 -149.55 -22.41 0 4.34 120 Kent St.  -22.81 -153.01 -22.86 1 4.87 121 Bowling Green  -21.31 -177.98 -23.11 -1 3.79 122 Georgia Southern -22.73 -161.24 -23.22 1 5.90 123 Kansas  -29.14 -130.54 -25.96 -5 -2.86 124 Connecticut  -24.02 -210.19 -26.53 3 2.97 125 UNC-Charlotte -26.17 -190.62 -26.98 1 2.52 126 Old Dominion -25.17 -212.90 -27.43 -4 1.41 127 Texas St. -28.58 -180.19 -28.07 -3 1.07 128 UTEP  -27.81 -219.82 -29.53 0 3.13 129 San Jose St.  -33.46 -210.16 -32.82 1 5.50 130 Rice  -33.64 -214.73 -33.17 -1 2.61  
      By Conference
      AAC
      10 UCF  25.74 141.33 24.23 28 South Florida  10.22 107.19 12.17 34 Memphis  12.54 26.57 9.69 36 SMU  10.51 26.48 8.33 52 Houston  3.71 14.64 3.21 54 Navy  3.76 1.23 2.57 66 Cincinnati  -3.18 27.95 -0.72 77 Tulane  -1.10 -55.46 -3.51 86 Tulsa  -1.84 -100.81 -6.27 94 Temple  -9.16 -54.39 -8.83 119 East Carolina  -22.40 -149.55 -22.41 124 Connecticut  -24.02 -210.19 -26.53 ACC
      4 Clemson  26.84 229.44 29.37 14 Miami (FL)  20.28 87.34 17.89 18 Virginia Tech  14.41 134.32 16.32 20 Georgia Tech  8.30 197.18 15.40 22 N.C. State  12.75 116.82 14.35 25 Florida St.  12.62 103.17 13.58 38 Wake Forest  9.88 32.35 8.21 40 Louisville  1.88 107.79 6.65 43 Syracuse  2.11 100.43 6.43 47 Virginia  3.85 59.54 5.54 57 Duke  0.41 26.44 1.59 65 Boston Coll.  -0.32 -9.78 -0.70 70 Pittsburgh  -2.70 2.97 -1.65 88 North Carolina  -5.96 -63.20 -7.13 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  35.92 299.39 38.92 3 Penn St.  35.89 169.69 32.41 11 Wisconsin  23.09 171.96 24.00 13 Michigan St.  15.20 167.00 18.49 17 Michigan  12.00 168.33 16.42 27 Iowa  19.03 -3.16 12.53 29 Indiana  11.14 94.81 12.17 33 Purdue  12.48 33.42 9.99 51 Northwestern  4.81 28.49 4.63 56 Nebraska  0.55 34.19 2.08 59 Minnesota  2.81 -14.23 1.16 67 Maryland  2.60 -49.39 -0.73 97 Rutgers  -8.33 -78.97 -9.51 105 Illinois  -12.10 -113.85 -13.76 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma St.  25.27 222.70 27.99 6 Oklahoma  23.84 240.69 27.93 8 TCU  28.40 141.35 26.00 23 Texas Tech  11.51 127.75 14.06 24 Iowa St.  16.46 53.35 13.64 30 Texas  11.03 84.66 11.58 32 West Virginia  9.70 73.39 10.14 83 Baylor  -6.46 -16.90 -5.15 84 Kansas St.  -0.71 -95.25 -5.24 123 Kansas  -29.14 -130.54 -25.96 CUSA
      41 North Texas  2.04 103.75 6.55 53 Southern Miss  -0.04 61.82 3.07 55 UT-San Antonio -2.93 87.25 2.41 73 Florida Atlantic  1.49 -77.71 -2.89 79 Louisiana Tech  -4.82 -19.78 -4.20 80 Marshall  -3.13 -45.81 -4.38 93 UAB -12.30 -5.57 -8.48 98 Middle Tenn. St.  -11.83 -41.30 -9.95 101 West. Kentucky  -11.60 -81.82 -11.83 108 Florida Intl.  -15.76 -75.56 -14.29 125 UNC-Charlotte -26.17 -190.62 -26.98 126 Old Dominion -25.17 -212.90 -27.43 128 UTEP  -27.81 -219.82 -29.53 130 Rice  -33.64 -214.73 -33.17 Indies
      9 Notre Dame  27.34 146.55 25.56 71 Army  -0.17 -30.84 -1.66 113 Massachusetts -20.98 -64.28 -17.20 118 BYU  -17.44 -178.33 -20.55 MAC
      58 W. Michigan  3.74 -22.44 1.37 62 Toledo  1.24 -14.83 0.09 75 Northern Illinois  -3.69 -11.53 -3.03 81 Buffalo  -0.67 -88.56 -4.87 82 East. Michigan  -3.86 -51.03 -5.12 99 Ohio  -7.49 -99.35 -9.96 100 Miami (OH)  -14.23 -41.73 -11.58 103 Akron  -5.80 -178.48 -12.79 114 Cent. Michigan  -19.37 -87.81 -17.30 115 Ball St.  -20.39 -94.12 -18.30 120 Kent St.  -22.81 -153.01 -22.86 121 Bowling Green  -21.31 -177.98 -23.11 MWC
      35 San Diego St.  10.33 43.95 9.09 42 Colorado St.  4.60 68.20 6.48 44 Fresno St.  4.54 64.31 6.24 46 Boise St.  6.21 28.38 5.56 78 Air Force  -4.99 -10.08 -3.83 87 New Mexico  -9.13 -5.69 -6.37 90 UNLV  -4.86 -80.14 -7.25 102 Nevada  -11.38 -86.86 -11.93 104 Utah St.  -10.81 -127.46 -13.58 109 Wyoming  -9.96 -173.72 -15.33 117 Hawaii  -23.18 -63.53 -18.63 129 San Jose St.  -33.46 -210.16 -32.82 P12
      15 Washington  19.22 96.94 17.66 16 USC  16.40 124.96 17.18 19 Stanford  19.11 63.31 15.90 26 Arizona  12.10 94.38 12.79 31 Washington St.  7.53 128.32 11.44 39 Arizona St.  7.61 43.09 7.23 45 Utah  7.82 17.07 6.07 48 Oregon  2.88 69.46 5.39 50 UCLA  4.80 31.72 4.78 60 California  2.62 -16.98 0.90 63 Colorado  1.65 -26.76 -0.24 111 Oregon St.  -19.46 -59.89 -15.97 SBC
      61 Appalachian State 0.56 5.71 0.66 68 Georgia State -3.79 34.30 -0.81 85 Troy  -6.36 -25.62 -5.52 89 Arkansas St.  -2.73 -107.38 -7.19 92 LA Monroe  -6.53 -64.14 -7.56 95 New Mexico St.  -13.98 8.03 -8.92 96 Coastal Carolina -13.52 -1.62 -9.09 107 Idaho  -14.02 -94.44 -14.07 112 LA Lafayette  -14.80 -132.24 -16.48 116 South Alabama -17.35 -135.48 -18.34 122 Georgia Southern -22.73 -161.24 -23.22 127 Texas St. -28.58 -180.19 -28.07 SEC
      2 Alabama  35.12 259.86 36.41 7 Georgia  25.93 186.32 26.60 12 Auburn  18.13 142.20 19.20 21 Mississippi St.  11.13 143.49 14.60 37 Texas A&M  9.64 38.12 8.33 49 LSU  1.93 80.27 5.30 64 Arkansas  -2.14 15.68 -0.64 69 Florida  0.11 -33.93 -1.62 72 South Carolina  1.70 -72.84 -2.51 74 Tennessee  -3.05 -18.45 -2.95 76 Kentucky  2.72 -100.60 -3.22 91 Mississippi  -7.60 -44.64 -7.30 106 Vanderbilt  -10.03 -144.68 -13.93 110 Missouri  -13.51 -135.28 -15.78  
       
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      As the weeks progress, things in DUSHEE tend to settle out.  Extremes begin to regress to the mean.  Of the top 15 teams, 12 saw their DUSHEE score drop this week; of the bottom 15, 9 saw their DUSHEE score rise.
       
      Baylor got hammered during their bye week, falling 28 spots and losing 11 points in their DUSHEE score primarily because each of their past opponents (UTSA, Duke, OU, and K-State) all lost.  The Bears went from ranked 24th to 52nd and a DUSHEE score of 15.91 to 4.87.
       
      TCU was impacted similarly, despite winning.  The positive impact of TCU beating WVU by 7 (point differential = +24) was stunted by being outgained by 102 yards (yardage differential = +12.3) resulting in a DUSHEE score of +16.6 for the game.  Which is good, but less than half of their average DUSHEE score from the week before, +34.9.  Then add to that the fact that most of TCU's opponents lost (Arkansas was whipped by South Carolina, SMU fell to Houston) and the Frogs fell 2 spots and lost almost 8 points on their DUSHEE score.
       
      As for the other oddballs mentioned last week, UCF fell 3 spots and lost more than 10 points off their DUSHEE score, despite beating Cincinnati by 4 TDs, but are still ranked 7th, one spot ahead of the Frogs.  Ohio State's point differential over UNLV fell by 20 points due to the Running Rebel's 31-point loss to San Diego State, but the Buckeyes made up for that by getting a +44.3 point differential against Maryland.  So Ohio State not only tops the new DUSHEE poll, but extended their lead over Alabama and Clemson by almost 4 DUSHEE points.
       
      The main oddity that needs addressing this week is the fact that Oklahoma lost to Iowa State and rose 3 spots in the rankings.  Oklahoma's rise was not due to DUSHEE thinking highly of their performance against Iowa State; in fact the Sooners' point differential against the Cyclones was a -2.3.  However, the Sooners got huge boosts from two prior opponents, Ohio State and ... Tulane.  Unlike Baylor and TCU, Oklahoma's previous opponents had banner days, with Ohio State's aforementioned beat down of Maryland and the Green Wave putting a 62-28 curb-stomping on Tulsa.  Both of these results caused a huge boost in OU's point differential in their games against those two opponents.  So despite the fact that Oklahoma has looked extremely average the last two weeks against middling-to-poor conference opponents, their non-conference wins continue to look really good.
       
      So before we get to the rankings, a few other items of interest that I'll track from week-to-week.
       
      The Frogs Week-to-Week:
      Highlighted cells mean one of the top 3 values of that week.
      Opp: @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU PD: 16.00 33.25 42.25   24.00 YD: 116.33 239.00 235.75   12.33 Score: 16.60 34.36 40.19   16.63  
      Conference Ratings:
      B10 12.10 B12 11.84 ACC 10.33 P12 8.05 SEC 4.79 AAC -0.54 MWC -7.39 MAC -13.72 CUSA -14.05 SBC -14.21  
      Performances of the week:
      Note: These reflect the highest and lowest DUSHEE point totals of for games this week as of this moment.  As the discussion above points out, the point totals, even for games that are weeks old, change as the season progresses.  So these may not be the highest and lowest performances for this week by the end of the season.
       
      Top 3:
      54.0 Ohio State vs. Maryland (62-14 point margin, 584-66 yardage margin)
      39.2 Washington State vs. Oregon (33-10 point margin, 369-277 yardage margin)
      34.4 Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (38-31 point margin, 449-513 yardage margin)
       
      Bottom 3:
      -51.0 Tulsa vs. Tulane (28-62 point margin, 412-658 yardage margin)
      -48.7 ECU vs. Temple (10-34 point margin, 287-523 yardage margin)
      -46.4 UConn vs. Memphis (31-70 point margin, 477-711 yardage margin)
       
      Strength of Schedule:
      Top 10
      FSU 19.7 Mary 19.5 Rut 13.2 OreSt 13.0 Ind 12.8 BC 11.3 Bay 11.2 TCU 10.5 MissSt 9.9 Vandy 9.9  
      Bottom 10 (in reverse order)
      MTSU -9.6 Marsh -10.4 EMU -10.5 Ball -11.0 Ohio -11.2 Umass -11.3 FIU -12.5 Ida -13.0 WKU -19.2 USF -20.7  
      Overall Ranks (Original Formulation):
      I've added two columns to the ranks to capture movement in the rankings from week-to-week.  The first column is the change in rank and the second is the change in DUSHEE score.
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  36.46 322.65 40.76 0 -1.61 2 Alabama  35.49 253.03 36.56 0 -5.43 3 Clemson  32.19 288.23 36.16 0 -5.17 4 Penn St.  36.93 158.92 32.73 3 -1.01 5 Oklahoma  26.07 273.59 31.33 3 -1.38 6 Georgia  30.87 155.34 28.50 3 -1.54 7 UCF  29.44 150.92 27.32 -3 -10.33 8 TCU  28.88 150.85 26.94 -2 -7.96 9 Oklahoma St.  23.36 200.40 25.79 3 -0.51 10 Notre Dame  27.70 136.86 25.45 3 0.24 11 Wisconsin  26.07 151.91 25.13 0 -1.58 12 Auburn  19.86 174.64 22.15 5 0.00 13 Washington St.  18.63 177.20 21.46 18 8.17 14 Michigan  14.78 208.60 20.49 1 -2.10 15 Virginia Tech  16.76 165.53 19.61 -5 -9.36 16 Michigan St.  16.58 167.00 19.57 5 2.77 17 Miami (FL)  20.97 102.22 19.19 -12 -16.09 18 Washington  19.20 114.47 18.64 9 4.16 19 USC  16.97 102.63 16.55 -5 -6.91 20 Texas Tech  16.85 103.85 16.53 9 2.97 21 Mississippi St.  14.06 131.94 16.10 1 -0.13 22 Florida St.  14.76 108.29 15.36 -3 -2.54 23 N.C. State  12.64 126.15 14.86 11 5.21 24 Iowa St.  17.21 63.90 14.73 26 10.58 25 Oregon  11.11 131.23 14.10 -7 -6.83 26 Arizona  13.48 86.17 13.38 -6 -4.29 27 Georgia Tech  5.89 183.66 13.29 -1 -1.58 28 Stanford  16.59 33.92 12.79 5 2.80 29 Purdue  12.38 86.38 12.66 6 3.18 30 Texas A&M  11.90 88.03 12.42 14 5.33 31 Indiana  10.88 93.41 12.02 11 4.76 32 Louisville  5.18 153.63 11.29 -9 -4.75 33 West Virginia  8.29 108.15 11.04 -5 -3.03 34 South Florida  8.81 96.45 10.79 7 3.13 35 San Diego St.  13.84 29.89 10.75 21 8.44 36 Iowa  17.39 -17.54 10.70 -6 -2.69 37 Houston  13.13 28.21 10.19 12 5.51 38 Texas  9.55 68.85 9.88 2 1.60 39 Memphis  12.60 19.48 9.40 12 5.46 40 Colorado  9.88 53.65 9.32 3 2.19 41 Colorado St.  5.77 91.25 8.50 -2 0.19 42 Wake Forest  9.73 30.43 8.04 3 1.20 43 Duke  4.96 82.09 7.49 -18 -7.60 44 Boise St.  7.17 50.28 7.34 -12 -4.32 45 UCLA  5.41 65.18 6.93 2 1.19 46 Virginia  3.88 83.00 6.82 0 1.01 47 SMU  8.47 17.33 6.53 -11 -2.36 48 Southern Miss  2.06 100.54 6.50 19 7.84 49 Maryland  8.28 3.58 5.70 -33 -16.61 50 UT-San Antonio -1.28 127.53 5.65 -13 -3.10 51 Northwestern  6.45 21.18 5.38 4 3.04 52 Baylor  2.23 66.38 4.87 -28 -11.04 53 Tulane  5.59 6.50 4.06 15 5.82 54 Arizona St.  5.45 5.27 3.90 0 1.52 55 Utah  4.84 6.58 3.56 4 1.62 56 Navy  3.01 13.84 2.71 -3 0.02 57 W. Michigan  6.64 -43.18 2.22 -5 -1.20 58 Nebraska  1.58 22.81 2.22 8 3.39 59 Syracuse  -2.70 64.29 1.48 4 0.84 60 North Texas  -2.86 62.35 1.27 1 -0.03 61 Appalachian State 1.29 -7.90 0.46 3 1.12 62 Kansas St.  4.21 -47.42 0.39 -2 -0.98 63 Air Force  -2.15 26.83 -0.06 21 5.45 64 Minnesota  2.17 -29.82 -0.07 -16 -5.38 65 South Carolina  3.82 -56.08 -0.31 18 5.11 66 Boston Coll.  -0.03 -8.84 -0.47 7 2.22 67 LSU  -4.27 45.58 -0.52 2 1.36 68 Pittsburgh  -1.44 4.88 -0.71 -11 -2.95 69 New Mexico  -3.89 22.67 -1.44 1 0.66 70 Arkansas  -3.54 17.33 -1.48 -32 -9.98 71 Troy  -1.95 -4.89 -1.55 10 3.34 72 Florida Atlantic  3.28 -75.76 -1.67 2 1.29 73 Tennessee  -2.01 -13.18 -2.01 3 1.16 74 Cincinnati  -4.35 15.80 -2.09 4 1.66 75 Fresno St.  -4.09 8.66 -2.28 -17 -4.39 76 Army  -0.55 -42.25 -2.52 23 10.77 77 Toledo  -2.40 -38.81 -3.58 11 3.65 78 Northern Illinois  -4.04 -19.54 -3.69 -13 -2.66 79 Florida  -0.55 -66.42 -3.75 -8 -1.63 80 Kentucky  1.62 -109.86 -4.52 -18 -5.82 81 Georgia State -5.77 -14.73 -4.60 13 4.77 82 Coastal Carolina -9.42 14.15 -5.56 0 -0.24 83 UNLV  -2.93 -79.20 -5.99 -11 -3.41 84 LA Monroe  -6.10 -46.97 -6.46 20 8.05 85 Temple  -4.13 -75.37 -6.59 7 1.91 86 Rutgers  -7.28 -35.13 -6.64 1 0.17 87 New Mexico St.  -10.92 11.51 -6.69 2 0.79 88 California  -6.15 -51.52 -6.73 -11 -3.18 89 Marshall  -6.90 -56.80 -7.50 4 1.62 90 Buffalo  -1.85 -124.25 -7.57 10 5.86 91 North Carolina  -7.23 -57.44 -7.75 -12 -3.79 92 Miami (OH)  -10.69 -12.77 -7.78 -12 -3.07 93 Vanderbilt  -2.24 -127.23 -7.98 -18 -4.93 94 Ohio  -7.48 -64.64 -8.29 -9 -2.34 95 East. Michigan  -8.67 -62.78 -8.98 0 0.51 96 UAB -13.15 -19.79 -9.77 0 1.39 97 Louisiana Tech  -10.17 -69.52 -10.33 0 2.29 98 Illinois  -8.19 -114.11 -11.28 -7 -2.92 99 Middle Tenn. St.  -13.68 -58.25 -12.09 10 5.78 100 Tulsa  -9.43 -122.33 -12.53 -14 -6.27 101 Mississippi  -14.37 -64.05 -12.85 0 1.54 102 Utah St.  -11.06 -148.90 -14.97 0 -0.49 103 Missouri  -15.03 -101.88 -15.21 13 8.15 104 Akron  -10.30 -185.60 -16.33 16 8.63 105 Wyoming  -11.75 -169.53 -16.48 0 -1.11 106 Hawaii  -23.87 -12.43 -16.54 -8 -3.82 107 Oregon St.  -19.36 -86.22 -17.30 1 0.31 108 Arkansas St.  -14.67 -155.38 -17.70 -18 -10.13 109 Cent. Michigan  -20.38 -82.09 -17.78 5 3.48 110 BYU  -15.82 -147.65 -18.07 -4 -1.64 111 LA Lafayette  -18.33 -125.73 -18.63 6 5.17 112 Massachusetts -22.29 -78.08 -18.84 3 2.84 113 Nevada  -18.80 -131.70 -19.25 9 10.10 114 West. Kentucky  -17.64 -156.51 -19.74 -11 -5.25 115 Idaho  -21.31 -153.35 -22.03 -3 -2.20 116 Florida Intl.  -23.58 -126.59 -22.18 -3 -1.06 117 Ball St.  -23.28 -134.00 -22.36 -6 -2.94 118 Kansas  -26.73 -103.54 -23.10 -11 -6.21 119 East Carolina  -27.47 -165.55 -26.75 -9 -7.73 120 Bowling Green  -24.16 -211.65 -26.90 6 8.80 121 Kent St.  -27.32 -186.51 -27.73 0 1.58 122 Old Dominion -25.70 -229.63 -28.84 -3 -4.04 123 Georgia Southern -31.25 -162.47 -29.12 2 5.04 124 Texas St. -29.42 -186.87 -29.14 -1 0.36 125 South Alabama -29.79 -188.35 -29.47 -1 2.41 126 UNC-Charlotte -29.22 -196.50 -29.50 1 8.61 127 Connecticut  -29.15 -197.46 -29.50 -9 -5.35 128 UTEP  -30.24 -245.05 -32.66 2 6.75 129 Rice  -35.36 -239.34 -35.78 0 3.19 130 San Jose St.  -37.18 -265.35 -38.32 -2 0.03  
      By Conference
      AAC
      7 UCF  29.44 150.92 27.32 34 South Florida  8.81 96.45 10.79 37 Houston  13.13 28.21 10.19 39 Memphis  12.60 19.48 9.40 47 SMU  8.47 17.33 6.53 53 Tulane  5.59 6.50 4.06 56 Navy  3.01 13.84 2.71 74 Cincinnati  -4.35 15.80 -2.09 85 Temple  -4.13 -75.37 -6.59 100 Tulsa  -9.43 -122.33 -12.53 119 East Carolina  -27.47 -165.55 -26.75 127 Connecticut  -29.15 -197.46 -29.50 ACC
      3 Clemson  32.19 288.23 36.16 15 Virginia Tech  16.76 165.53 19.61 17 Miami (FL)  20.97 102.22 19.19 22 Florida St.  14.76 108.29 15.36 23 N.C. State  12.64 126.15 14.86 27 Georgia Tech  5.89 183.66 13.29 32 Louisville  5.18 153.63 11.29 42 Wake Forest  9.73 30.43 8.04 43 Duke  4.96 82.09 7.49 46 Virginia  3.88 83.00 6.82 59 Syracuse  -2.70 64.29 1.48 66 Boston Coll.  -0.03 -8.84 -0.47 68 Pittsburgh  -1.44 4.88 -0.71 91 North Carolina  -7.23 -57.44 -7.75 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  36.46 322.65 40.76 4 Penn St.  36.93 158.92 32.73 11 Wisconsin  26.07 151.91 25.13 14 Michigan  14.78 208.60 20.49 16 Michigan St.  16.58 167.00 19.57 29 Purdue  12.38 86.38 12.66 31 Indiana  10.88 93.41 12.02 36 Iowa  17.39 -17.54 10.70 49 Maryland  8.28 3.58 5.70 51 Northwestern  6.45 21.18 5.38 58 Nebraska  1.58 22.81 2.22 64 Minnesota  2.17 -29.82 -0.07 86 Rutgers  -7.28 -35.13 -6.64 98 Illinois  -8.19 -114.11 -11.28 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  26.07 273.59 31.33 8 TCU  28.88 150.85 26.94 9 Oklahoma St.  23.36 200.40 25.79 20 Texas Tech  16.85 103.85 16.53 24 Iowa St.  17.21 63.90 14.73 33 West Virginia  8.29 108.15 11.04 38 Texas  9.55 68.85 9.88 52 Baylor  2.23 66.38 4.87 62 Kansas St.  4.21 -47.42 0.39 118 Kansas  -26.73 -103.54 -23.10 CUSA
      48 Southern Miss  2.06 100.54 6.50 50 UT-San Antonio -1.28 127.53 5.65 60 North Texas  -2.86 62.35 1.27 72 Florida Atlantic  3.28 -75.76 -1.67 89 Marshall  -6.90 -56.80 -7.50 96 UAB -13.15 -19.79 -9.77 97 Louisiana Tech  -10.17 -69.52 -10.33 99 Middle Tenn. St.  -13.68 -58.25 -12.09 114 West. Kentucky  -17.64 -156.51 -19.74 116 Florida Intl.  -23.58 -126.59 -22.18 122 Old Dominion -25.70 -229.63 -28.84 126 UNC-Charlotte -29.22 -196.50 -29.50 128 UTEP  -30.24 -245.05 -32.66 129 Rice  -35.36 -239.34 -35.78 Indies
      10 Notre Dame  27.70 136.86 25.45 76 Army  -0.55 -42.25 -2.52 110 BYU  -15.82 -147.65 -18.07 112 Massachusetts -22.29 -78.08 -18.84 MAC
      57 W. Michigan  6.64 -43.18 2.22 77 Toledo  -2.40 -38.81 -3.58 78 Northern Illinois  -4.04 -19.54 -3.69 90 Buffalo  -1.85 -124.25 -7.57 92 Miami (OH)  -10.69 -12.77 -7.78 94 Ohio  -7.48 -64.64 -8.29 95 East. Michigan  -8.67 -62.78 -8.98 104 Akron  -10.30 -185.60 -16.33 109 Cent. Michigan  -20.38 -82.09 -17.78 117 Ball St.  -23.28 -134.00 -22.36 120 Bowling Green  -24.16 -211.65 -26.90 121 Kent St.  -27.32 -186.51 -27.73 MWC
      35 San Diego St.  13.84 29.89 10.75 41 Colorado St.  5.77 91.25 8.50 44 Boise St.  7.17 50.28 7.34 63 Air Force  -2.15 26.83 -0.06 69 New Mexico  -3.89 22.67 -1.44 75 Fresno St.  -4.09 8.66 -2.28 83 UNLV  -2.93 -79.20 -5.99 102 Utah St.  -11.06 -148.90 -14.97 105 Wyoming  -11.75 -169.53 -16.48 106 Hawaii  -23.87 -12.43 -16.54 113 Nevada  -18.80 -131.70 -19.25 130 San Jose St.  -37.18 -265.35 -38.32 P12
      13 Washington St.  18.63 177.20 21.46 18 Washington  19.20 114.47 18.64 19 USC  16.97 102.63 16.55 25 Oregon  11.11 131.23 14.10 26 Arizona  13.48 86.17 13.38 28 Stanford  16.59 33.92 12.79 40 Colorado  9.88 53.65 9.32 45 UCLA  5.41 65.18 6.93 54 Arizona St.  5.45 5.27 3.90 55 Utah  4.84 6.58 3.56 88 California  -6.15 -51.52 -6.73 107 Oregon St.  -19.36 -86.22 -17.30 SBC
      61 Appalachian State 1.29 -7.90 0.46 71 Troy  -1.95 -4.89 -1.55 81 Georgia State -5.77 -14.73 -4.60 82 Coastal Carolina -9.42 14.15 -5.56 84 LA Monroe  -6.10 -46.97 -6.46 87 New Mexico St.  -10.92 11.51 -6.69 108 Arkansas St.  -14.67 -155.38 -17.70 111 LA Lafayette  -18.33 -125.73 -18.63 115 Idaho  -21.31 -153.35 -22.03 123 Georgia Southern -31.25 -162.47 -29.12 124 Texas St. -29.42 -186.87 -29.14 125 South Alabama -29.79 -188.35 -29.47 SEC
      2 Alabama  35.49 253.03 36.56 6 Georgia  30.87 155.34 28.50 12 Auburn  19.86 174.64 22.15 21 Mississippi St.  14.06 131.94 16.10 30 Texas A&M  11.90 88.03 12.42 65 South Carolina  3.82 -56.08 -0.31 67 LSU  -4.27 45.58 -0.52 70 Arkansas  -3.54 17.33 -1.48 73 Tennessee  -2.01 -13.18 -2.01 79 Florida  -0.55 -66.42 -3.75 80 Kentucky  1.62 -109.86 -4.52 93 Vanderbilt  -2.24 -127.23 -7.98 101 Mississippi  -14.37 -64.05 -12.85 103 Missouri  -15.03 -101.88 -15.21  
       
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 1

       
      If you just want the rankings and don't care about my jibber-jabber, scroll down to the bottom of this post.  But I encourage you to read the jibber-jabber to allow me to explain some of the crazy stuff you see in the rankings.  And as an aside, the addition of Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt and the rising of the UAB Phoenixes/Blazers from the ashes has raised the number of FBS teams to 130 for this season.
       
      I'm always quite apprehensive putting out DUSHEE, particularly these early ones when some teams still only have two games against FBS competition.  This year, I'm particularly apprehensive, because DUSHEE has come up with some rankings that ... well, shall we say ... go against conventional wisdom.  But rather than shirk from the mocking and cower from the slings and arrows of outrageous slander, I'm going to use this as an opportunity to elucidate the pitfalls of such analyses and look at some of the oddities that appear in the inaugural DUSHEE for 2017.
       
      To get the big one out of the way early, DUSHEE is not as down on Baylor as the rest of the college football world.  In fact, the initial DUSHEE (original formulation, because extra-crispy DUSHEE is even higher on the Rapey Bears) has the winless Bears ranked .... 24th.  Yes, DUSHEE has Baylor as a top 25 team.  So let's look at why.
       
      First, as far as DUSHEE is concerned, the loss to Liberty never happened.  Generally that's not a big deal because most teams beat their patsies by huge margins and they can be ignored.  When an FBS team loses to their patsy, that's a big piece of information that gets ignored, because I have a hard enough time keeping track of FBS teams without doubling the population of teams.
       
      Outside of Liberty, DUSHEE has Baylor's strength of schedule is the 5th hardest in FBS (TCU's schedule ranks 4th, BTW).  UTSA is ranked 37th (based on 2 games, a 17-10 win against Baylor and a 44-14 win against Texas State), Duke is 25th, OU is 8th, and K-State is 60th.  Baylor in particular, gets a lot of mileage in DUSHEE for their 8-point loss to Oklahoma.
       
      Opp:  UTSA @ Duke  OU @ KSU PD: 23.00 -11.00 27.33 7.50 YD: 253.00 -25.67 223.67 197.00 Score: 27.99 -8.62 29.41 14.86  
      So right now, Baylor's point differential against UTSA (which is inflated due to the fact that UTSA's only other FCS game was a blowout win against Texas State .... PD = -7+30 = 23) and Oklahoma are quite high, despite being losses.  Baylor played UTSA and OU closer than their opponents did.  Baylor played OU closer than Ohio State did.
       
      Of course, one would expect Baylor's point differential against UTSA to go down as UTSA plays more teams and presumably doesn't blow out every other team on their schedule.  But right now, Baylor's score against UTSA is based solely on a comparison with Texas State.  And since Baylor played UTSA significantly better than Texas State did, they get a high point differential.
       
      Which is why you should be wary of any data-based ranking system when the data is scarce.  If Baylor is still getting a DUSHEE score of 28 points for the UTSA game by week 10, then UTSA will have destroyed the rest of Conference USA and is probably in the top 25.  But I suspect that the UTSA score will drop significantly by then.  That said, UTSA doesn't exactly have a murderer's row of opponents the rest of the way out, which is why I created the extra crispy DUSHEE.  But that version of DUSHEE rewards Baylor even more for their tough schedule than original recipe.
       
      Which leads us to Team That Will Cause Frog Horn Incredulity #2: Ohio State.  DUSHEE has the Ohio State team that got blown out at home to Oklahoma as the #1 team in the country.  Barely, but they are not quite 0.4 points above Alabama and a point above Clemson.  And the opponent that is putting Ohio State on top?  UNLV, the team that lost to Howard.
       
      The Ohio State-UNLV situation is a similar one to the Baylor-UTSA situation above.  Ohio State beat UNLV by 33 points and outgained the Runnin' Rebels by 404 yards.  That is being compared to UNLV's other two FBS games, a 28-point win over Idaho and a 28-point win over San Jose State.  That makes Ohio State's point differential over UNLV 61 points (33+28).  And as with the Baylor-Liberty tilt, DUSHEE doesn't know UNLV-Howard was ever played.  When you blow out a team that has only blown out other teams, you get a really high point differential.  UNLV isn't going to blow out the rest of their schedule.  That number will come down and Ohio State's ranking will come down.
       
      And while there are a number of other teams that will doubtlessly make you question my sanity, the final team at which will take a look is Central Florida.  The inaugural DUSHEE has UCF as the 4th ranked team in the country.  And while I don't think UCF is actually the 4th best team in the country, UCF has been impressive and under the radar.  So far, UCF has blown out Florida International 61-17, Maryland (the team that beat Texas in Austin) 38-10, and Memphis (who took down Ole Miss) 40-13.  None of those opponents are world beaters by any stretch, but Maryland and Memphis aren't total patsies either and UCF pounded them both.  I have no doubt that the Knights are being over-rated here, but I do think this is a team that is currently under the radar nationally that is probably a lot better than pollsters are giving them credit.
       
      The Frogs enter the rankings at number 6 and DUSHEE has the Big 12 barely ahead of the ACC and Big 10 as the best conference (on average) in FBS.  Note that the letters 'SEC' were nowhere in that sentence.  For the first time that I can remember since doing this DUSHEE experiment, the SEC not only isn't the top-ranked conference, they are the LOWEST ranked conference of the "Power 5."  And since the vast majority of OOC games are in the books, I wouldn't expect the SEC to be able to make up enough ground to challenge the top conferences by the season's end.  This is arguably a historic down year for the conference.  I'm sure we will be getting a bunch of stories about the inferiority of the SEC on ESPN over the next few weeks. [/sarcasm]
       
      Conference Rankings
      B12 13.44 ACC 13.43 B10 13.28 P12 7.99 SEC 5.28 AAC 0.17 MWC -8.01 MAC -15.68 SBC -15.75 CUSA -15.85  
      Rank by Team
      Rank-Team-PD-YD-DUSHEE Score
      1 Ohio St.  39.20 324.60 42.37 2 Alabama  41.53 285.93 41.99 3 Clemson  36.50 339.83 41.34 4 UCF  38.83 235.17 37.65 5 Miami (FL)  35.50 232.25 35.29 6 TCU  36.92 205.64 34.90 7 Penn St.  37.90 169.23 33.73 8 Oklahoma  28.60 272.75 32.72 9 Georgia  32.98 161.04 30.04 10 Virginia Tech  26.13 231.04 28.98
      11 Wisconsin  27.50 167.33 26.70 12 Oklahoma St.  23.03 218.82 26.30 13 Notre Dame  29.07 116.45 25.20 14 USC  24.70 139.60 23.45 15 Michigan  19.08 197.29 22.59 16 Maryland  23.50 132.72 22.31 17 Auburn  21.17 160.60 22.15 18 Oregon  18.63 170.17 20.93 19 Florida St.  17.69 122.08 17.90 20 Arizona  16.67 131.14 17.67 21 Michigan St.  13.19 160.02 16.80 22 Mississippi St.  14.50 131.25 16.23 23 Louisville  9.44 194.75 16.03 24 Baylor  11.71 162.00 15.91 25 Duke  11.77 144.81 15.09 26 Georgia Tech  7.03 203.58 14.87 27 Washington  16.21 73.46 14.48 28 West Virginia  11.67 125.83 14.07 29 Texas Tech  13.08 96.83 13.57 30 Iowa  17.40 35.63 13.38 31 Washington St.  9.81 134.85 13.29 32 Boise St.  9.46 107.17 11.67 33 Stanford  14.83 2.03 9.99 34 N.C. State  9.13 71.23 9.65 35 Purdue  9.46 63.50 9.48 36 SMU  11.21 28.21 8.88 37 UT-San Antonio 0.00 174.83 8.75 38 Arkansas  7.17 74.53 8.51 39 Colorado St.  6.88 74.42 8.31 40 Texas  7.75 62.13 8.27 41 South Florida  6.85 61.81 7.66 42 Indiana  9.25 21.94 7.26 43 Colorado  9.19 20.17 7.13 44 Texas A&M  6.75 51.75 7.09 45 Wake Forest  8.31 25.83 6.83 46 Virginia  3.11 74.67 5.81 47 UCLA  4.17 59.18 5.74 48 Minnesota  6.54 18.85 5.30 49 Houston  6.17 11.35 4.68 50 Iowa St.  6.75 -6.97 4.15 51 Memphis  8.17 -30.17 3.94 52 W. Michigan  7.67 -33.79 3.42 53 Navy  2.35 22.38 2.69 54 Arizona St.  4.23 -8.73 2.39 55 Northwestern  3.42 1.17 2.34 56 San Diego St.  5.50 -27.00 2.32 57 Pittsburgh  0.38 39.81 2.24 58 Fresno St.  0.53 35.06 2.11 59 Utah  3.03 -1.50 1.94 60 Kansas St.  4.00 -25.89 1.37 61 North Texas  -3.44 71.92 1.31 62 Kentucky  7.10 -68.83 1.29 63 Syracuse  -4.50 72.77 0.64 64 Appalachian State -2.33 17.78 -0.67 65 Northern Illinois  -2.11 7.53 -1.03 66 Nebraska  -1.77 0.07 -1.17 67 Southern Miss  -5.56 47.22 -1.34 68 Tulane  -2.00 -8.56 -1.76 69 LSU  -6.00 42.42 -1.88 70 New Mexico  -3.67 6.98 -2.10 71 Florida  2.17 -71.25 -2.12 72 UNLV  1.75 -74.83 -2.58 73 Boston Coll.  -1.73 -30.57 -2.68 74 Florida Atlantic  1.06 -73.40 -2.96 75 Vanderbilt  2.00 -87.73 -3.06 76 Tennessee  -2.87 -25.30 -3.18 77 California  -4.58 -9.77 -3.54 78 Cincinnati  -5.33 -3.92 -3.75 79 North Carolina  -4.83 -14.73 -3.96 80 Miami (OH)  -6.19 -11.69 -4.71 81 Troy  -5.52 -24.15 -4.89 82 Coastal Carolina -9.14 15.51 -5.32 83 South Carolina  -1.50 -88.47 -5.43 84 Air Force  -5.78 -33.22 -5.51 85 Ohio  -3.83 -67.68 -5.94 86 Tulsa  -3.38 -80.00 -6.26 87 Rutgers  -6.98 -43.17 -6.81 88 Toledo  -3.33 -100.00 -7.23 89 New Mexico St.  -9.73 -19.85 -7.48 90 Arkansas St.  -8.54 -37.54 -7.57 91 Illinois  -2.25 -137.10 -8.36 92 Temple  -4.48 -110.23 -8.50 93 Marshall  -5.92 -103.33 -9.11 94 Georgia State -12.00 -27.42 -9.37 95 East. Michigan  -9.92 -57.58 -9.49 96 UAB -15.11 -21.72 -11.16 97 Louisiana Tech  -12.46 -86.13 -12.61 98 Hawaii  -22.04 39.32 -12.73 99 Army  -11.54 -111.75 -13.29 100 Buffalo  -7.42 -169.67 -13.43 101 Mississippi  -17.25 -57.78 -14.39 102 Utah St.  -12.46 -123.31 -14.47 103 West. Kentucky  -11.44 -137.22 -14.49 104 LA Monroe  -12.63 -121.75 -14.51 105 Wyoming  -11.81 -149.83 -15.37 106 BYU  -13.83 -144.13 -16.43 107 Kansas  -20.17 -68.89 -16.89 108 Oregon St.  -19.67 -89.92 -17.61 109 Middle Tenn. St.  -20.13 -88.93 -17.87 110 East Carolina  -21.50 -93.83 -19.03 111 Ball St.  -17.67 -152.63 -19.41 112 Idaho  -17.28 -166.11 -19.83 113 Florida Intl.  -22.25 -125.58 -21.12 114 Cent. Michigan  -25.48 -85.35 -21.26 115 Massachusetts -24.97 -100.67 -21.68 116 Missouri  -22.75 -163.86 -23.36 117 LA Lafayette  -22.03 -182.28 -23.80 118 Connecticut  -24.11 -161.39 -24.15 119 Old Dominion -21.51 -209.19 -24.80 120 Akron  -20.04 -231.92 -24.96 121 Kent St.  -28.15 -210.69 -29.30 122 Nevada  -27.08 -225.83 -29.35 123 Texas St. -33.08 -148.88 -29.50 124 South Alabama -32.94 -198.29 -31.88 125 Georgia Southern -30.17 -280.83 -34.16 126 Bowling Green  -35.00 -247.10 -35.70 127 UNC-Charlotte -42.17 -199.83 -38.11 128 San Jose St.  -36.70 -277.47 -38.35 129 Rice  -37.23 -282.65 -38.96 130 UTEP  -36.78 -297.57 -39.41  
      By Conference
      AAC
      4 UCF  38.83 235.17 37.65 36 SMU  11.21 28.21 8.88 41 South Florida  6.85 61.81 7.66 49 Houston  6.17 11.35 4.68 51 Memphis  8.17 -30.17 3.94 53 Navy  2.35 22.38 2.69 68 Tulane  -2.00 -8.56 -1.76 78 Cincinnati  -5.33 -3.92 -3.75 86 Tulsa  -3.38 -80.00 -6.26 92 Temple  -4.48 -110.23 -8.50 110 East Carolina  -21.50 -93.83 -19.03 118 Connecticut  -24.11 -161.39 -24.15 ACC
      3 Clemson  36.50 339.83 41.34 5 Miami (FL)  35.50 232.25 35.29 10 Virginia Tech  26.13 231.04 28.98 19 Florida St.  17.69 122.08 17.90 23 Louisville  9.44 194.75 16.03 25 Duke  11.77 144.81 15.09 26 Georgia Tech  7.03 203.58 14.87 34 N.C. State  9.13 71.23 9.65 45 Wake Forest  8.31 25.83 6.83 46 Virginia  3.11 74.67 5.81 57 Pittsburgh  0.38 39.81 2.24 63 Syracuse  -4.50 72.77 0.64 73 Boston Coll.  -1.73 -30.57 -2.68 79 North Carolina  -4.83 -14.73 -3.96 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  39.20 324.60 42.37 7 Penn St.  37.90 169.23 33.73 11 Wisconsin  27.50 167.33 26.70 15 Michigan  19.08 197.29 22.59 16 Maryland  23.50 132.72 22.31 21 Michigan St.  13.19 160.02 16.80 30 Iowa  17.40 35.63 13.38 35 Purdue  9.46 63.50 9.48 42 Indiana  9.25 21.94 7.26 48 Minnesota  6.54 18.85 5.30 55 Northwestern  3.42 1.17 2.34 66 Nebraska  -1.77 0.07 -1.17 87 Rutgers  -6.98 -43.17 -6.81 91 Illinois  -2.25 -137.10 -8.36 BXII-II
      6 TCU  36.92 205.64 34.90 8 Oklahoma  28.60 272.75 32.72 12 Oklahoma St.  23.03 218.82 26.30 24 Baylor  11.71 162.00 15.91 28 West Virginia  11.67 125.83 14.07 29 Texas Tech  13.08 96.83 13.57 40 Texas  7.75 62.13 8.27 50 Iowa St.  6.75 -6.97 4.15 60 Kansas St.  4.00 -25.89 1.37 107 Kansas  -20.17 -68.89 -16.89 CUSA
      37 UT-San Antonio 0.00 174.83 8.75 61 North Texas  -3.44 71.92 1.31 67 Southern Miss  -5.56 47.22 -1.34 74 Florida Atlantic  1.06 -73.40 -2.96 93 Marshall  -5.92 -103.33 -9.11 96 UAB -15.11 -21.72 -11.16 97 Louisiana Tech  -12.46 -86.13 -12.61 103 West. Kentucky  -11.44 -137.22 -14.49 109 Middle Tenn. St.  -20.13 -88.93 -17.87 113 Florida Intl.  -22.25 -125.58 -21.12 119 Old Dominion -21.51 -209.19 -24.80 127 UNC-Charlotte -42.17 -199.83 -38.11 129 Rice  -37.23 -282.65 -38.96 130 UTEP  -36.78 -297.57 -39.41 Indies
      13 Notre Dame  29.07 116.45 25.20 99 Army  -11.54 -111.75 -13.29 106 BYU  -13.83 -144.13 -16.43 115 Massachusetts -24.97 -100.67 -21.68 MAC
      52 W. Michigan  7.67 -33.79 3.42 65 Northern Illinois  -2.11 7.53 -1.03 80 Miami (OH)  -6.19 -11.69 -4.71 85 Ohio  -3.83 -67.68 -5.94 88 Toledo  -3.33 -100.00 -7.23 95 East. Michigan  -9.92 -57.58 -9.49 100 Buffalo  -7.42 -169.67 -13.43 111 Ball St.  -17.67 -152.63 -19.41 114 Cent. Michigan  -25.48 -85.35 -21.26 120 Akron  -20.04 -231.92 -24.96 121 Kent St.  -28.15 -210.69 -29.30 126 Bowling Green  -35.00 -247.10 -35.70 MWC
      32 Boise St.  9.46 107.17 11.67 39 Colorado St.  6.88 74.42 8.31 56 San Diego St.  5.50 -27.00 2.32 58 Fresno St.  0.53 35.06 2.11 70 New Mexico  -3.67 6.98 -2.10 72 UNLV  1.75 -74.83 -2.58 84 Air Force  -5.78 -33.22 -5.51 98 Hawaii  -22.04 39.32 -12.73 102 Utah St.  -12.46 -123.31 -14.47 105 Wyoming  -11.81 -149.83 -15.37 122 Nevada  -27.08 -225.83 -29.35 128 San Jose St.  -36.70 -277.47 -38.35 P12
      14 USC  24.70 139.60 23.45 18 Oregon  18.63 170.17 20.93 20 Arizona  16.67 131.14 17.67 27 Washington  16.21 73.46 14.48 31 Washington St.  9.81 134.85 13.29 33 Stanford  14.83 2.03 9.99 43 Colorado  9.19 20.17 7.13 47 UCLA  4.17 59.18 5.74 54 Arizona St.  4.23 -8.73 2.39 59 Utah  3.03 -1.50 1.94 77 California  -4.58 -9.77 -3.54 108 Oregon St.  -19.67 -89.92 -17.61 SBC
      64 Appalachian State -2.33 17.78 -0.67 81 Troy  -5.52 -24.15 -4.89 82 Coastal Carolina -9.14 15.51 -5.32 89 New Mexico St.  -9.73 -19.85 -7.48 90 Arkansas St.  -8.54 -37.54 -7.57 94 Georgia State -12.00 -27.42 -9.37 104 LA Monroe  -12.63 -121.75 -14.51 112 Idaho  -17.28 -166.11 -19.83 117 LA Lafayette  -22.03 -182.28 -23.80 123 Texas St. -33.08 -148.88 -29.50 124 South Alabama -32.94 -198.29 -31.88 125 Georgia Southern -30.17 -280.83 -34.16 SEC
      2 Alabama  41.53 285.93 41.99 9 Georgia  32.98 161.04 30.04 17 Auburn  21.17 160.60 22.15 22 Mississippi St.  14.50 131.25 16.23 38 Arkansas  7.17 74.53 8.51 44 Texas A&M  6.75 51.75 7.09 62 Kentucky  7.10 -68.83 1.29 69 LSU  -6.00 42.42 -1.88 71 Florida  2.17 -71.25 -2.12 75 Vanderbilt  2.00 -87.73 -3.06 76 Tennessee  -2.87 -25.30 -3.18 83 South Carolina  -1.50 -88.47 -5.43 101 Mississippi  -17.25 -57.78 -14.39 116 Missouri  -22.75 -163.86 -23.36  
       
             
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 2

       
      Last week, in Part I, we discussed all of TCU's past lives; as a team in the state of Texas, and in the SWC, WAC, and Conference USA.
       
      This week, we will focus on TCU's current conference, the rest of the "Power 5," and a few other conferences like the Big East and the MAC.
       
      And away we go ...
       
      Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II
       
      TCUs current conference was always closely intertwined with its old one.  The Oklahoma schools started in the SWC before Oklahoma founded the Big 6 and Oklahoma State turned the conference into the Big 8.  Then when the SWC went belly up, half the conference merged with the Big 8 to form the Big 12.  In between, Texas and Oklahoma remained each other's primary rival, often to the chagrin of their in-state rivals.
       
      The first chart shows the history of the conference after the expansion to 12.
       

       
      At the time of the expansion, Nebraska was dominant, playing elite MNC-level football.  Colorado was at a peak but was about the start a slow decline after the McCartney era was exposed and Bill Snyder was getting Kansas State to a pretty elite level.  A&M comes in as the best program of the Texas schools but is in decline.  
       
      Then around 2002, Nebraska and Kansas State begin to decline and Texas and Oklahoma begin to rise and those two schools dominate the conference for the next decade.  It is at this point that Nebraska, Colorado, A&M, and Missouri leave, resulting in the entry of TCU and West Virginia.  Texas falls off while Oklahoma State and Baylor emerge as contenders with Oklahoma remaining pretty elite.
       
      The 2005 Texas team ekes out the 2008 Oklahoma team as the best single season in the Big 12 history.  The 2014 Frogs are the highest rated team in the Big XII-II's short history.
       
      The history of the Big 6/7/8 prior to the addition of the Texas schools appears below.
       

       
      The Big 6/7/8 started out as the original Missouri Valley Conference, with Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa State as charter members with Drake and Washington (Mo).  Kansas State and Grinnell would join shortly after, and Oklahoma joined as Drake, Washington, and Grinnell dropped out of "big time" college football.  From 1928-1947, the conference was six teams.  The addition of Colorado (from the precursor of the WAC, see Part I) in 1948 made the conference seven, and Oklahoma State in 1960 (from the Missouri Valley) formed the Big 8.
       
      During this entire time, the conference was pretty well dominated by two teams -- Nebraska and Oklahoma.  Nebraska dominated the first three decades up until WWII.  After the war, Oklahoma took over as the dominant team for two decades.  Then after the OU-NU hegemony was challenged for a few years by Missouri and Kansas in the early 1960s, Nebraska and Oklahoma vaulted to super-elite status in the late 1960s and remained there for the next two decades when Oklahoma fell apart after Barry Switzer left to coach the Cowboys and Colorado started to emerge.
       
      The clear heyday of the Big 8 was the decade of the 70s when NU and OU were out-of-this-world good and even the perennial bottom-dwellers Kansas State and Iowa State put together decent programs.  Note that aside from this period, Kansas State was consistently atrocious from WWII until about 1990 when Bill Snyder came aboard.  The 1973 Oklahoma team was rated the best in conference history, but pretty much any Nebraska or Oklahoma team from 1970-1974 could have been considered one of the best of all time.
       
      PAC12 (previously the Pacific Coast Conference/Athletic Association of Western Universities/PAC-8/PAC-10)
       
      The schools that would become the PAC-8 started out in the Pacific Coast Conference with Idaho and Montana.  The plot below shows the conference during the PCC years.
       

       
      Throughout these years, Idaho and Montana struggled to be competitive, generally always comprising the bottom of the standings.  USC emerged as the dominant team in the late 1920s and early 30s, but then came back to the pack prior to WWII.  From that point on, the conference was very evenly competitive with Stanford, Cal, and UCLA all vying for championships most years and many of the other teams, at least briefly, becoming competitive.
       
      In 1959, the California schools and Washington rid themselves of the Oregon schools, Washington State, and Idaho (Montana had left the PCC in 1949) and formed the AAWU.  Washington State was let back in the club in 1962 and the Oregon schools in 1964 when the conference became known as the PAC-8.  For the purposes of continuity, the following chart, which shows the conference from 1960 on, doesn't reflect these rejections and readmittances.
       

       
      With the official formation of the PAC-8, USC reemerged as the dominant program through the early 1980s (by which point the Arizona schools had moved over from the WAC, see Part I) followed by strong years from UCLA and Washington in the late 80s and 90s.  Note that the USC program at the time of the Sun Bowl was going through its lowest point since the early 1960s.  One of the many ways in which the football gods were smiling on us in 1998.  The Trojans once again re-emerge as the dominant team of the mid-to-late 2000s and then Oregon leveraged that Nike money to get good in the current decade.  Utah and Colorado join in the 2011 season with Utah being solid, middle-of-the-pack and Colorado mostly battling with Washington State for the cellar.
       
      Aside from an extended two decades of bad play from Oregon State at the end of the last century, the PAC has been a pretty competitive conference throughout.  The best ever single season was the 1972 USC team and the highest program marks were reached by the Pete Carroll USC teams of the mid 2000s and the USC teams of the early 1930s.
       
      SEC (previously the Southern Conference)
       
      If you thought the 16-team WAC was the most insane conference ever devised, you probably weren't around for the Southern Conference, which was the precursor of both the SEC and the ACC.  The teams that founded both of those conferences plus a whole bunch of other teams played together in the Southern Conference, which at its greatest extent was a TWENTY-THREE team conference.  It is not immediately obvious how scheduling was handled during this time; there were no official divisions but it does seem like the schools who would become the SEC mostly played each other and the schools that became the ACC mostly played each other.  Some schools played eight conference games; others played four.
       
      The chart below shows the ridiculous history of the Southern Conference up to the time when the SEC split in 1933.  I don't expect you to be able to figure out which squiggle belongs to which school.  Just trust me when I tell you that the top squiggles chronologically are Vanderbilt (yes, Vanderbilt was once good in football), Auburn, Georgia Tech, Alabama, and Tennessee.  The 1917 Rambin' Wreck was the dominant single season team of the era.
       

       
      The conference at this time also included schools like Tulane, Sewanee, Washington and Lee, and the Virginia Military Institute.  The last two of these teams were left out of the SEC  but remained in the Southern Conference along with most of the teams that would become the ACC.
       
      Next we see the early years of the SEC.  Sewanee hangs on until 1939, battling Mississippi State for the cellar.  Tulane is initially quite competitive, with a 5-year MAV that generally hovered just below Alabama, Tennessee, and an emerging LSU up until WWII.  After the war, Tulane falls off, replaced by Georgia and Georgia Tech, the latter of which became the clear dominant team in the mid-1950s.  Mississippi, which was a clear bottom-feeder in the Southern Conference caps off a slow ascent and becomes the top program in the conference in the late 1950s and early 60s when Alabama takes over. 
       

       
      It is at this point that Georgia Tech and Tulane leave the conference; Tech still very competitive (Tulane not as much).  It is also at this point that Kentucky, Vandy, and Mississippi State set up shop as the bottom programs in the conference, a distinction they will maintain through most of the remaining history of the conference.
       

       
      Alabama remains the dominant team of the 70s and early 80s when the retirement of Bear Bryant marks the beginning of their decline as a program (although still good enough to grab an MNC for Gene Stallings in 1992).  During Bama's decline, Florida, Ole Miss, and Georgia rise until the early 1990s when Florida and Tennessee pull ahead of the rest of the conference where they will stay for about a decade.  South Carolina and Arkansas join the conference at this time, staying firmly middle-of-the-pack throughout their history.
       
      As we all know, Alabama has re-emerged as the dominant team in the conference over the last half decade, during which time A&M and Missouri join the conference, also shoring up the middle of the conference.
       
      The best ever single season for the SEC was the 1971 Alabama team and 1975 marked the pinnacle of the Alabama program, although another few strong years from Nick Saban might get the most recent incarnation of the Tide in the same rarefied air.
       
      ACC (preceded by the same Southern Conference)
       
      For the first three decades in the history of the ACC, refer to the first chart in the SEC section above.  Trust me, they're in there.  After the SEC splits, the Southern Conference becomes a little easier to digest.
       

       
      You'll note that at the time of the SEC split, the top programs in the Southern Conference were most of the ones that left, with the notable exception of Mississippi State.  In the vacuum left by the SEC schools, Duke and UNC rose quickly, and in particular Duke (yes, Duke) was the dominant force in the Southern Conference up until the ACC formed in 1953.  Schools were added to the conference in the wake of the SEC split including Wake Forest and then Virginia left after 1937 only to return after the ACC formation.  Once again, the newly formed conference split from the poorer performers as Davidson, Richmond, Virginia Tech, the Citadel, VMI and Furman, many of whom had been added with Wake Forest back in the late 1930s.
       
      Compared to the other 'Power 5' conferences, the ACC has easily the least auspicious beginnings.  Maryland emerges as the first dominant team in the ACC but falls off quickly and then the conference slides into a pretty mediocre state.  Duke, NC State, and UNC all take turns as the "top" program in the conference but by 1970 (the year South Carolina leaves and goes independent) the ACC has more teams with below average MAVs than above average.  If I were to tell you in 1970 that between the ACC and SWC one conference was going to collapse and the other was going to become one of the five elite conferences in college football, I think most people would have put their money on the ACC for the collapse.  But the conference made some very strategic moves that the SWC didn't make. Like ...
       

       
      ... making wise expansion choices.  The ACC initially added Georgia Tech in 1983.  Georgia Tech was not immediately a big player in the conference and Maryland, UNC, and Clemson all made big improvements in play in the late 70s and early 80s.  Then everybody except Clemson fell off and the conference started looking pretty mediocre again until they scored Florida State who would thoroughly dominate the ACC from 1992 until their next expansion move in 2004.  This move was the first of two death blows the ACC landed on the Big East, grabbing Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC.  This immediately added two teams that would become mainstays at the top of the conference, even if Miami would never replicate their Big East success.  Then they ACC landed the second blow, adding Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse.  Combined with Duke and Wake showing some improvement of late making the bottom of the conference not look so atrocious, the ACC is now a clear "Power 5," even if arguably the weakest.
       
      The best ever ACC team was the 1993 Florida State team.
       
      B1G
       
      The Big 10 began with seven teams in 1896 (shown below back to 1892 because the data was there) -- Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and U of Chicago.  Indiana and Iowa joined in 1899 and Ohio State in 1912, giving the league ten actual teams until Chicago left in 1939.  The chart below shows the conference for this era.  The conference was pretty equitable during its first 5 decades with Purdue and Minnesota dominating the 1890s, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Chicago the 1900s, Minnesota the 1910s, Michigan the 1920s, and Minnesota, Purdue, Ohio State and even Northwestern all vying for supremacy during the Depression.  Only Indiana never really maintained a competitive program at any point of the conference's early years.  Clearly, by WWII, the University of Chicago was struggling to remain competitive.
       
      The 1940 Michigan and Minnesota teams edge out the 1917 Minnesota team as the best single-season teams during this era.
       

       
      Once Chicago drops, the Big 10 had nine teams for 14 years until Michigan State was added in 1953.  It's not only the modern Big 10 that can't seem to maintain the correct number of teams. 
       
      After WWII, Michigan has the first extended era of dominance from 1942 through 1952.  Parity reigned again through most of the 50s and 60s with Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue all staking a claim to the top program in the conference during the period.  Once again, Indiana is really the only program never to get consistently into the upper echelon during this period. 
       

       
      By 1970, several Big 10 programs have taken severe downturns, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and most notably Northwestern which goes from a MAV of 15 in 1962 to -10 by 1980, about where the U of Chicago was when they dropped out of the conference 40 years before.  In a trend of one- or two-team dominance that is noticeable in most of the major conferences in the 1970s (Texas and Arkansas in the SWC, Oklahoma and Nebraska in the Big 8, Alabama in the SEC, USC in the PAC-10), the Big 10 is dominated by Michigan and Ohio State throughout the decade.  The 1947 Michigan team, 1973 Ohio State team, and 1944 Ohio State team were the best of the era.
       
      Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Michigan, come down to the pack a little in the 1980s as Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State improve.  In the 90s, the conference becomes a three-headed monster with the admittance of Penn State in 1993 (making the Big 10 eleven), the resurgence of Ohio State, and continued elite play of Michigan throughout the decade.  The new millennia sees Penn State decline leaving Ohio State and Michigan at the top.  Michigan finally starts to decline in the late 2000s, replaced by Penn State and Wisconsin as Ohio State's primary competition over the last decade.  Wisconsin's resurgence in the 1990s is stark, going from bottom-dwellers (with Northwestern) in 1990 to top-tier status in two decades.  During this time, Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, and of course Indiana are never particularly competitive.
       
      Also during this time, the conference adds Nebraska (2011), Maryland (2014), and Rutgers (2014).  Only Nebraska is above average since joining.  The 1994 Penn State team is the top team of the era.
       

       
      Big East and the Eastern Independents
       
      The Big East started as a basketball conference in the 1979 but in 1991 became a football conference.  The conference was formed from the Big East basketball schools that played D1-A football (BC, Syracuse, and Pitt) and from a number of other eastern independents (Miami, WVU, Rutgers, VaTech, and Temple).  Notre Dame, while never football member of the Big East, is included here because they were among the eastern independents from which the conference was born and played in the conference in other sports.  Army and Navy are also included in these charts for any years where they weren't parts of other conferences (e.g., Army in CUSA starting in 1998)
       

       
      The conference was immediately dominated by Miami, coming into the conference at their zenith.  Lou Holtz had Notre Dame riding high at this point as well.  By 2000, Miami had come down a little and Syracuse and Virginia Tech emerged as serious contenders.  Then in 2004, the Big East's two bellwethers at the time, Miami and Virginia Tech left for the ACC, followed by Boston College the following year.  Those schools were replaced by UConn (a Big East basketball school moving up to play D1-A football), and Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida from CUSA, but the death spiral had begun.  WVU emerged as the class of the conference during these final years before leaving for the Big XII-II after the 2011 season.  Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville leave for the ACC the following year and the conference folds.
       
      The 2001 Miami team was the best single season in Big East history.
       
      Prior to the formation of the Big East, most of the eastern schools, particularly in the north and mid-Atlantic where the ACC and SEC didn't have a footprint, played as independents.  In some respects they were in a de facto conference as most of these schools played each other on a yearly basis, or nearly so, but they never officially formed.  Not until the Big East.
       
      The military academies and Penn State had SRS numbers dating back to the 1890s.  Army is the dominant team in these early years, followed by Pitt and Notre Dame starting around 1915.  Knute Rockne had Notre Dame as the dominant force in the northeast during the 1920s and early 30s when Pitt emerges again just before WWII.  The war drives Pitt into a prolonged funk that lasts until they recruit Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino but launches Notre Dame and the military academies, particularly Army, to stratospheric heights.
       

       
      After the war, Notre Dame and the academies come back to Earth (albeit Notre Dame more slowly) and by 1960 the northeast is lacking in many good programs.  Syracuse and Penn State are the best of a tepid lot.  Rutgers, as always, is terrible at this time.  Then in the late 1960s, Ara Parseghian returns Notre Dame to elite status while Penn State, Pitt, and Florida State all emerge by 1980 into serious national contenders.
       
      The 1943 Notre Dame team was the greatest team of the Independent era and arguably the best of all time.  I'm not sure why Notre Dame got so much talent during the war when so many other non-military academy schools struggled, but alas they did.
       
      SBC/CUSA
       
      The Sun Belt, much like her other "mid-major" brethren, has been turned over, almost entirely by the ACC/Big East/AAC/CUSA/WAC upheaval of the last few years, and so their chart is also a bit of a mess.  The SBC was created in 1976 but didn't become a D1-A/FBS conference until the 2001 season. with Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, North Texas, Idaho, and Louisiana-Monroe as the founding football members.  Utah State and Troy joined in the following two years.  Then the shuffling started.
       
      In 2005, Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State left to join the WAC after the MWC pilfered the WAC to replace TCU, Utah, and BYU.  The Sun Belt adds Floridas Atlantic and International, then Western Kentucky in 2009.  Eight years later, the SBC sheds MTSU, FIU, FAU, and UNT when all leave to go to CUSA after the AAC forms with mostly CUSA teams.  Western Kentucky follows suit a year later.  New Mexico State and Idaho return after the WAC collapses and are joined by Texas State, Appalachian State, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State during the 2013-2014 seasons, most of whom playing their first FBS football.
       
      So the chart below has all of these teams, plus the teams that are still remaining in the current version of CUSA.  It is a mess.  Make what you will of it ...
       

       
      MAC
       
      And last but not least, we take a look at the history of MACtion.  The MAC was formed in 1946 and became a D1-A conference in 1962 with Ohio, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Toledo, Kent State, Bowling Green, and Marshall and the seven initial members.  Marshall was booted after the 1969 season then Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Ball State and Northern Illinois were all added between 1971-1975.  During most of this time, the conference was led by Miami, interrupted by a brief meteoric rise and fall of Toledo around 1970.
       
      After 1980, the conference as a whole started a slow decline with no program having a better than average MAV from 1982 until 1997.  During this time Central Michigan, Bowling Green, and Miami all vied for the top spot in the conference.  Northern Illinois left after the 1985 season, replaced by Akron in 1992.  Then in 1997, Northern Illinois and Marshall returned, with Marshall immediately becoming the top team in the conference until the left again to go to CUSA in 2005.  Buffalo was added in 1998.  The conference then had brief experiments with Central Florida, Temple, and Massachusetts from 2000-2015, during which time conference play improved and NIU, CMU, and Toledo emerged as the top conference teams.
       
      The best ever MAC program was the Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami Red Hawks in 2003.
       

    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 3

       
      If you liked my last post, you're gonna love this one.
       
      Prior to looking at college basketball team performance metrics from a historical perspective, I started by looking at the same numbers for college football.  Using the same fantastic site, College Football Reference, I pulled the yearly SRS (Simple Rating System) and a 5-year moving average for each team over their history and plotted them over time.  Unlike the basketball numbers which only go back to 1950, the college football SRS scores have been calculated throughout most of the whole history of college football, even back into the 1890's in some cases.
       
      This first post will look at the conferences that TCU has been a part of.  The next post will look at the rest of college football.  We'll start the same way we started the basketball post, by looking at the Texas colleges
       
      Texas Schools
      Here is the history of Texas college football teams going back to 1903, when the first SRS scores for Texas, A&M, and TCU were calculated.  According to the SRS metric, the 1947 Texas team is the best team in the history of the state while the Longhorns of the early 1970s was the best program.  The 1955 Horned Frogs were the best TCU team by the SRS metric, followed closely by the 1938 MNC team and the 2014 team.  Also note that other than the Houston Cougars of the early 1970s, those late 1950's Frogs were the best program in the history of the state that didn't wear burnt orange.
       

       
      Acknowledging that this is a busy chart, we break up this history into 3 eras.  The first couple of decades of the 20th century were dominated by Texas and A&M, but things start getting a little more competitive around the time the Great Depression hits:
       

       
      There have only been 3 significant eras in which Texas was not the dominant team in the state.  The first two, from 1930-1940 and from 1956-1961, were dominated by the Horned Frogs.  World War II was bad for every Texas team, except the Longhorns, the only school whose moving SRS trended up during the war.  Another interesting trend is that the performance of the private schools seems to be pretty closely correlated during this time.  While TCU tended to peak higher than the others, when TCU was good, SMU, Rice, and to a lesser extent, Baylor (they got good in the '50s, not so much in the '30s) were also good.  When TCU was bad, all the private schools tended to be bad.
       
      Then comes the protracted dismal mediocrity of TCU football leading up to the dissolution of the SWC ...
       

       
      This period of time shows most of the third era not dominated by UT, the Sherrill/Slocum A&M years which emerge from the precipitous decline of SMU after the death penalty and the wild oscillations of Houston, caught in a morbid cycle of cheating and draconian punishment.  We'll talk a little more about the collapse of the SWC in the next section.
       
      Then we have the post-SWC years:
       

       
      This era is notable for the slow and steady rise of the Frogs, the bottoming out and then rapid ascent of Baylor, and then the emergence of perhaps a 4th era of non-Longhorn dominance with Baylor, TCU, and A&M outperforming Texas over the last 3-4 years.
       
      SWC
      Again, since the SWC was pretty much the same schools as above, sans UTEP, UNT, and Texas State, avec Arkansas, and Tech and Houston only appear after they joined, respectively, this will look similar to the above chart.
       

       
      Perhaps the thing that stands out the most to me is the fact that Arkansas was a non-factor in the conference until 1960 or so.  And they had fallen off significantly from their early 80s high before they left for the SEC in 1992.  Which indicates that it wasn't the move to the SEC that hurt the Hogs; they had been sliding toward mediocrity for the better part of the decade prior.
       
      The next chart shows the early years.  The short tenures of the Oklahoma schools are included, but not Southwestern's sole year as a member.  SMU was added as Oklahoma left and TCU was added as Oklahoma State (nee Oklahoma A&M) left.  Not surprisingly, the AP MNC teams (1939 A&M and 1938 TCU) were the best teams of this era.
       

       
      Next we see the true heyday of the conference, from the end of WWII through the early 1960's.  From 1947-1961 (and if you ignore Tech who struggled for a number of years after being admitted to the SWC, you can expand the time frame out to 1968), not a single program in the conference had a below average 5-year MAV.  By the end of this heyday, Texas and Arkansas had clearly separated from the rest of the conference and the other schools were all in states of relative decline, but until the late 1960's, every program in the conference was better than most.  Despite the parity during these years, Texas was the dominant program throughout, save for the brief era of Frog predominance in the late 50s -- the seven best individual seasons during this time were all by the Longhorns, the best being the 1947 team.
       

       
      Then we come to the end.  If you take a snapshot of the early 80s, the conference still looks pretty salty.  Texas and Arkansas have come back to the pack a little bit but are still very good.  Jackie Sherrill has begun to make A&M relevant, Houston comes into the league immediately competitive, and SMU gets really good.  Of course, in hindsight, we know why this all happened ... A&M, Houston, and SMU were all blatantly cheating.  But setting that aside, the SWC circa 1980 is still a damn fine football conference.
       
      But then things go bad quickly.  A&M, Houston, and SMU all get hit with NCAA sanctions and fall precipitously.  Texas and Arkansas continue to slide.  Then Arkansas bolts to the SEC.  Houston miraculously starts getting good again, then gets busted for cheating again, and then gets really bad very quickly.
       

       
      A few notes about the 1984 TCU team.  A common mythology about the Wacker-led Frogs is that the team was on the verge of ascendancy before the NCAA levied the "Living Death Penalty" on the Frogs in 1985.  However, based on the SRS metric at least, there isn't a lot of evidence to support either an emerging Frog powerhouse or a sharp decline after the sanctions hit.  The 1984 team was the beneficiary of a particularly weak conference that year.  TCU had an SRS around 6 (i.e., the Frogs were about 6 points better, on average, than an average college football team), which is good, especially compared to the teams immediately before and after, but not spectacular.  The teams with higher SRS that season, SMU, Arkansas, and Texas, were all only a few points higher than the Frogs that year.  And when looking at the 5-year MAV, the Frogs had climbed a little from their late 1970s low, but the program was remarkably and consistently mediocre from 1979 through the end of the conference, staying between an SRS of 0 to -5.  Compare the Frog's MAV to Houston's over the same time period.  Cougar fans could reasonably argue that they suffered two "Living Death Penalties" over a 15-year period, with two performance declines that followed NCAA sanctions that rivaled the decline SMU suffered after the Actual Death Penalty.
       
      Which leads to another point.  At the time when the conference collapsed, there were four teams with above average MAVs and four teams with below average MAVs.  All politics aside, it was the four above average teams that were invited to the Big 12 and the four below average teams that were left behind.  In some alternate universe, if Houston had not suffered the severe NCAA sanctions imposed during the Jenkins era and had remained at least above average for the remaining half-decade, would the Cougars have bumped Baylor or Tech as the fourth invitee to the Big 12?  Houston never had the political clout that Baylor had, and probably not even the clout Tech had, but would the legislature have felt pressure to get the other state school invited?  Enough to get five Texas teams invited to the Big 12?  Or would that have caused Nebraska to blow the whole merger up before it started?  If Houston had stayed good, would there have been a Big 12?
       
      All told, the SWC at the time of the collapse was an awfully mediocre football conference.  Probably more on par with the MWC conference we played in (perhaps not even as strong at the top as that conference, but probably not quite as weak at the bottom either) than with the current slate of "Power 5" conferences.
       
      But of course, that alternate universe is not ours.  In ours, the Frogs then joined the ...
       
      WAC/MWC (preceded by the Rocky Mountain/Mountain States Athletic/Skyline Conference)
       
      As was the case with the basketball charts, the WAC/MWC chart is a holy mess of schools across multiple conferences.  Since I was primarily interested in the dynastic strength of programs over time more than a rigorous history of conference membership, I thought it more interesting to look at programs across conferences.  So forgive the messiness ...
       
      The first chart shows the conference around the time of TCU's inclusion.
       

       
      As we entered, BYU was still king with an emergent Colorado State and Air Force.  And you can see right off the bat why the "Gang of 5" might have been less than enthused about the teams added to their conference.  Rice, TCU, SMU, Tulsa, San Jose, and UNLV all come in in 1996 as well below average teams; of the members prior to that season, only the soon-to-be abandoned UTEP was as bad as the six new teams.  The MWC splits after the 1998 season, leaving all the new additions behind and Urban Meyer's Utes begin to ascend, topped off by the best ever WAC/MWC team in 2004.  Boise joins the WAC after we leave in 2000, becoming with Fresno, the only good WAC programs for much of the 2000s.
       
      TCU joins the MWC in 2005 and the conference quickly becomes the three-headed Hydra monster of TCU, Utah, and BYU.  A declining Fresno leaves Boise as the only good team in the WAC and they join the MWC after Utah and BYU bolt in 2011.  The WAC folds as a football conference after the 2012 season and the MWC is left with a declining Boise, and a sharply ascendant Utah State and San Diego State.
       
      The next chart shows the WAC prior to the failed 16-team experiment.  This conference started out as the Rocky Mountain Conference and included Colorado, Colorado College, Colorado School of Mines, Denver, and Utah State.  The Colorado schools were all pretty dominant in the early days of the conference but began to decline rapidly as World War II approached and were not invited to the Mountain States/Skyline Conference when it formed in 1938.  Utah had the first period of dominance in the early Depression era.  BYU was surprisingly uncompetitive and remained so all the way into the early 1970s.
       

       
      After WWII, Colorado leaves and joins the then Big 7 and is replaced by Montana.  In 1963, the WAC was formed, leaving out Montana, Denver, and Utah State and adding New Mexico, Arizona, and Arizona State.  ASU is one of, if not the, dominant program in the conference (bumping Wyoming's decade-long run of relative dominance) until they and Arizona leave for the PAC 10 after the 1977 season.  UTEP joins in 1968, and after the Arizona schools leave, San Diego State, Hawaii, and Air Force join in consecutive years.  At this point, BYU emerges as the dominant program.
       
      CUSA/AAC
       
      Ever so briefly, the Frogs were in Conference USA.  CUSA was formed the year after the SWC dissolved, with Houston landing there while the rest of the SWC rejects went to the WAC.  Many of the founding members of CUSA were playing as football independents prior to forming the conference, but most had spent some time in the Missouri Valley Conference at some point.  A lot of teams have come in and out of CUSA and most of the original members are now in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) which formed after the dissolution of the Big East as a football conference.  In the chart below, the schools shown after the formation of the AAC are a hodge-podge of teams currently in both conferences, but I didn't include many of the WAC and Sun Belt teams that moved to CUSA after the AAC split.  The chart is busy enough already, and those teams are accounted for in Part 2.
       

       
      When the conference formed, USM, ECU, Louisville, and Memphis all enter having been consistently average over the previous decade.  Cincinnati had been pretty bad in the early 1990s but had pulled themselves up to nearly average by the time the CUSA formed.  Tulsa, who had largely been in league with these other schools, went to the WAC initially, but joined CUSA with SMU and Rice after they defected from the WAC.
       
      The first decade of CUSA was dominated buy Southern Miss.  Tulane was bad at the outset of the conference, but became competitive in quickly with the Shaun King-led undefeated 1998 team, then quickly faded back into mediocrity.  Louisville was becoming ascendant just as they left to join the Big East, culminating with the best ever CUSA season in 2004.  The ascendant Louisville years coincide with TCU's brief tenure in the conference, and USM, Louisville, and TCU all battled for conference supremacy in the early 2000, but all three programs were far from world-beaters at the time with SRS MAVs around 5.
       
      In 2005, the conference underwent a wholesale change of members as Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF went to the Big East, TCU went to the Mountain West, and Army went Independent.  Tulsa, SMU, Rice, and UTEP came over from the WAC; UCF joined, and Marshall moved from the MAC.  From this point, the conference has seen the emergence of Houston, Tulsa, and UCF.
       
      The next chart shows the history of most of the founding members of CUSA before starting the conference.  This history includes a very incomplete history of some of the Missouri Valley teams that showed up on their schedules often throughout their histories.
       

       
      Of all the CUSA founders, Tulsa has been playing "big time" college football the longest, dating back to their inclusion in the Missouri Valley prior to the Great Depression.  At that time the conference included former SWC outcast Oklahoma State/A&M and schools like Grinnell, Creighton, Drake, and Washington(Mo).  Tulsa largely dominated these early years.  As many of these schools began to drop down in classification and Oklahoma State left to join the Big 8, Cincinnati and North Texas appear in the mid 1950s followed by Memphis, USM, Louisville and New Mexico State in the 1960s.  Tulane leaves the SEC and starts playing many of these schools in 1966 and East Carolina appears in 1977.  Memphis was the strongest team of the group during the 1960s.  The 70s saw Memphis, Tulane, and ECU battling for supremacy and the 80s saw the dominance of USM.
       
      Tune in next week when we talk about the Big 6/7/8/12/XII-II and the rest of college football.
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    •   Echols-Luper makes a tremendous catch in traffic   Cameron Echols-Luper loses his helmet while making the catch in the end zone for the Hilltopper touchdown.     http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/21094407
    • Shoot, I think this is my 25th anniversary.  Wonder if there is anything happening for it.
    • Mike Leach: ‘They are outright crooks at Texas Tech’ Tuesday, October 17th 2017, 11:20 am CDT   (KCBD) - "They were outright crooks at Texas Tech," said former Texas Tech football coach Mike Leach during a news conference yesterday. He is the current head football coach at Washington State University. During the news conference, he began talking about Athletic Director Bill Moos leaving WSU and going to Nebraska. He spoke about how he wants honest, straightforward people in the athletic department.  That is when the question about Texas Tech came up. First, he said, "They were outright crooks," but he didn't stop there.  "You’re talking about an organization that hasn’t paid me for 2009. We won nine games in 2009 and they haven't won nine since. Yeah, are there crooks there? Yeah." "They’re felons and oughta put them in jail." "You’ve got schools that have actually had murders, schools that have had rapes and sexual assaults, schools that have cheated and fixed grades, schools that have bought their players. There’s only one school in the nation that’s shameful enough to not pay their head coach. Only one. And that’s Texas Tech." "Texas Tech stands alone as far as being sleazy as far as not paying their head coach." And there’s more... In February 2009, Leach signed a three-year contract extension with Texas Tech that would pay him at least $2.5 million per year if he stayed in place through 2013. Leach's guaranteed compensation would have been $1.6 million in 2006, $1.65 million in 2007, $1.75 million in 2008, $1.85 million in 2009 and $2.15 million in 2010. On December 28, 2009, Leach was suspended indefinitely by Texas Tech pending investigation of the alleged inappropriate treatment of Adam James, son of former SMU and New England Patriots running back (and former ESPN college football analyst) Craig James.  Leach immediately sought an injunction that would allow him to coach in the 2010 Alamo Bowl. However, on December 30, Texas Tech fired Leach, calling his refusal to apologize to James "a defiant act of insubordination." This was the day before Leach was reportedly owed an $800,000 tenure bonus and over $1,700,000 for contractually guaranteed income for 2009. Texas Tech lawyers handed a termination letter to Liggett just minutes before the two sides were to appear in a Lubbock courtroom for a hearing. Liggett was also told that Leach would not be allowed to coach in the Alamo Bowl regardless of how the hearing turned out. School officials later said that other incidents had come to light during its investigation of Leach, but declined to elaborate. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill was named interim head coach and led the team during their appearance in the Alamo Bowl. In a statement, Leach said that he believed the firing was motivated in part by simmering acrimony over the contract negotiations. He also said he planned to sue Texas Tech for wrongful termination. On January 8, 2010, Leach formally filed suit against Texas Tech for wrongful termination and other claims. He claimed that school officials not only fired him without cause but issued defamatory statements in a willful attempt to keep him from being hired elsewhere. Early in 2011, Texas 7th Court of Appeals ruled that Texas Tech was immune from Leach's claim of breach of contract but that Leach can claim non-monetary reparations; Leach attorney Paul Dobrowski announced his intention to appeal to the Supreme Court of Texas. In February 2012, The Texas Supreme Court rejected Leach's appeal without comment signifying their belief that Leach's lawsuit(s) were without merit. After that ruling, Texas Tech attorney Dicky Gregg stated: "As we've said from the beginning, we were right on the law and the facts, and the (Texas) Supreme Court has just held that we were correct on the law." Leach agreed to terms with Washington State on November 30, 2011 and began coaching for the 2012 season. His five-year rollover contract made Leach the fourth-highest paid coach in the Pac-12. Controversially, Leach is paid on the order of $3,000,000 while funding university sports has led the school to tremendous debt and struggles with facilities upkeep.   Click link for video     http://www.kcbd.com/story/36616674/mike-leach-they-are-outright-crooks-at-texas-tech#.WejC-hq23mw.facebook
    • 2017 Homecoming Frog Fest was fun.  30 years ago I graduated.  Feels like no more than 29.  
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