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  • Blog Entries

    • By $mooth in My trip to the Masters 0
      I was fortunate enough to be able to go to the Masters the year Fred Couples won it, 1992.  Being a P.G.A. member at the time, I had become good friends with the McGregor salesman.  It just so happens his dad was President of McGregor at the time.  Obviously, he went every year.
       
      He told me that if I could pay for the airfare and my meals, everything else was taken care of, meaning motel room and transportation to the course.  I could get into the tournament just by showing my P.G.A. card.  In fact, I could get into just about any tournament by doing the same thing.  I went to the Colonial and Byron Nelson many times just by signing up and getting my badges for the week.  But, the Masters didn't work that way.  When you got to the course, you had to show your card and driver license.  They give you a "sticker" that you had to wear.  Of course, I bought a Masters cap and would put it on there every day.  The area around the club is rather blah.  In fact, if you didn't know where you were going, you wouldn't even know that Augusta C.C. was there.
       
      We flew into Atlanta, he rented a car, and we made the drive up to Augusta.  As soon as we checked into the hotel, we headed for the course.  He was meeting some friends and made arrangements to meet under the "big tree" right by the clubhouse.  He pointed me to the ticket booth and took off.  Sure enough, I showed them my card and D.L., got my sticker and I was inside the gate. 
       
      The first thing I wanted to do was start at No. 1 and walk the course.  At that time, television didn't show much of the front nine, so I knew nothing about those holes.  My first impression was that I couldn't believe there was a golf course that was as hilly as this one was.  It was up and down on almost every hole.  By the time I got to the back nine, I was already worn out and I was a lot younger then.  Every green was monstrous and looked like an elephant was buried on them.  "Amen Corner" is unbelievable.  The two par 5's, #13 and #15 are two of the most beautiful holes I have ever seen.
       
      On Thursday, I made it a point to just hang around #13 and #15.  Of course, right behind #15 green is the pond that you see on #16.  I bought one of those little Master folding chairs, and parked myself where they would hit their second shots from.  What you hear about leaving your seat and coming back to it later was absolutely true.  Need to go to the bathroom and come back?  No problem.  Want one of their cheap sandwiches (they are and really good)?  No problem.  Another one of my favorite places was right next to #15 green.  Watching shots come in there, and then the players trying to putt on it was terrific.  One day, I decided to go stand behind #16 green when the pin was in the right front part of the green behind the bunker.  Corey Pavin just happened to make a hole-in-one while I was standing there!  Flew it into the hole. 
       
      There was a Weather Warning on Friday.  Everybody had to clear the course.  While I was trying to find a cab, I met an elderly couple that was going to same motel.  We decided to share the cab.  Turns out it was Jack Nicklaus's personal secretary and her husband.  Super nice people.  I decided that they needed looking after, so decided to meet them the next morning at #7's green, by the ropes where the players walked going to #8 tee box.  Sure enough, they were there and I spent the better part of the day with Jack's uncle as we followed him around.  The seat he was using was one of those where the top split open and had a point on the other end like an umbrella.  He was a little wobbly on it, so I let him use my chair and I used his seat.  What a great guy he was.  Next thing I know, we are walking down the right side of #11, and I was being introduced to Jack's wife, kids, etc.  Basically, I spent all day with this couple.  Gave them my card and about 2 months later something came in the mail addressed to me.  It was a very nice autographed picture from Jack.  
       
      I have to admit that there are certain holes, like #9 and #18 greens that took me by a little surprise.  Tthey are sitting out in an area by themselves.  By the greens, there are no trees at all.  If it wasn't for the crowd around them, they would look rather plain.  If you are down in the valley where most of the drives are on #9, when looking at the green, the front of it looks like a green wall.  the "false front" on #9 and #14 can be very disconcerting.  A shot that comes up short will roll back down the hill 20 or 30 yards.
       
      If you are wondering why the pins are in the same places every year, once you are there and see the undulations in all of the greens, the answer becomes very simple.  Those are about the only places they can put the pin where there is a relatively flat place around the hole.  They are truly amazing to see in person.  TV doesn't do them justice.  Obviously, my favorite golf tournament of any on the tour.   
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 2
      Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.
       
      But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts the odds of something happening at 70% and that something doesn't happen, does it mean that the analysis was wrong (spoiler: almost certainly, but probably not in the way you think)? Or did something improbable simply happen (spoiler: also almost certainly)?
       
      At the crux of understanding of this topic, we first have to get comfortable with the concept of uncertainty.  Those in the science/statistics game are trained to get comfortable with the concept, but it is not a concept that humans necessarily have a natural affinity for.  In fact, uncertainty makes most people really uncomfortable.  We don't like to think of forces that act on us as being in any way random.  "Everything happens for a reason," we love to tell ourselves.
       
      But whether we like uncertainty or not, every halfway complex interaction that occurs is fraught with uncertainty and randomness.  The variables at play are many and unaccountable with the time and hardware available to us in the moment to assess them.  Did that man in Pennsylvania see an ad right before the election that made him change his vote?  Did that woman in Wisconsin have a child get sick the morning of the election which caused her not to vote when she would have?
       
      Now don't worry ... I'm not going to talk politics here.  We're going to use college football for our example, but the principles apply to the political example too.
       
      So how does someone determine the odds of a team winning?
       
      First, you need some data.  For this example, we'll use DUSHEE's modified Point Differential metric.  And let's take two teams, totally at random ... say TCU and Oklahoma.
       
      As I write this, TCU has played 11 DUSHEE-recognized games, Oklahoma has played 12.  The week-to-week DUSHEE score for each team is as follows:
       
      TCU
        Ark SMU OkSt   WVU KSU Kan ISU Tex OU Ttech Bay   6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33 OU
      UTEP OhSt Tulane Bay   ISU Tex KSU Ttech OkSt TCU Kan WVU 33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17  
      In theory, the DUSHEE score should represent how many points better (or worse) the team performed than an average team would have performed against that team.  You will note that there is a fair amount of variability in how each team has performed game-to-game.  TCU has bounced between 1.27 (against WVU) and 29.01 (Oklahoma State) for an average of 15.27.  Oklahoma has played between -0.38 (against Baylor) and 48.65 (Ohio State) for an average of 25.43.
       
      On average, Oklahoma has been about 10 points better than the Frogs.  However, the Sooners' performance has also been much more inconsistent -- their worst performance was worse than TCU's and their best performance was (much) better.  The range (best minus worst) of Oklahoma's performance (49.0) has been much greater than TCU's (27.7).
       
      So while you are more likely to get a 40+ point differential performance from OU (they've done it twice, TCU hasn't even hit 30), OU is also more likely to give a negative point differential performance than TCU is.
       
      You Are Such a Standard Deviant
       
      The most common method for measuring this spread is standard deviation.  I'm going to assume that most of you have heard the term and I'm going to assume that the majority either know what it means or don't care enough to spend time going into it here.  I talked a bit about it in a blog post several years ago on the Monte Carlo method.
       
      But I do need to make a few points about standard deviation before we proceed.  First, using standard deviation (or any assessment of spread) is a bit dicey when talking about as few data points as we have here (11-12 games).  Second, standard deviation is based on the assumption that the data being analyzed has a "normal" or "bell-curve" distribution; i.e., a team is more likely to perform at or near their average performance than they are further away from average.
       
      Go back to the game-to-game data for each team above and you can see how well that second assumption holds up.  TCU, in particular, has only played one game near their average (last week, against Tech), and has instead shown more of a binomial distribution with five games grouped closely around 5 and five games grouped around 25.
       

       
      TCU's is not a distribution that looks particularly bell-curvy.  More bathtubby.  And Oklahoma's distribution doesn't exactly look like a bell curve either.  But let's take our lack of data points excuse and use it to ignore our lack of bell-curviness.  We'll assume that the non-normal distribution of the data is because we just don't have enough data points and that as the Frogs continued to play more hypothetical games, they'd get more "average" performances and start making their bathtub look more like a bell.  There is no reason to expect that teams would not have a normal distribution given enough data.
       
      So if you do the calculation, TCU's mean performance is currently at 15.3 with a standard deviation of 10.6.  Statistically, that means that there is a roughly 63% probability that TCU's DUSHEE Score in any one game will be between 4.7 and 25.9 (15.3 +/- 10.6).
       
      Oklahoma's mean performance is currently 25.4 with a standard deviation of 15.5, meaning that we should expect 63% of Oklahoma's games to be between 9.9 and 40.9.
       
      So, while Oklahoma has been better, on average, than the Frogs, they've also been more inconsistent.
       
      Revisiting the French Riviera
       
      So we can use these numbers to run what you often hear called "simulated" games.  There are any number of ways you can go about "simulating" a game.  You could play a bunch of games on your Xbox and assume the programmers have accurately accounted for each player's ability and matchups with opposing players and coaching and play-calling and all those other intangibles that make up the outcome of a game.  You could go far deeper into the analytics than I do with DUSHEE and have a far more complex multi-variate determination of outcome.
       
      Perhaps the most simple way to "simulate" many games against two teams is to assume that the two teams' performances over many games will follow a normal distribution based on the limited set of data we talked about above.  So if we assume that the average and range of performance the teams have demonstrated so far is typical (and it might not be ... for instance the fact that Oklahoma has proven to be less consistent over 12 games than the Frogs have might be over-estimated given the limited data), then we can begin to predict how the teams would perform against each other over many, many games.
       
      So if we take TCU's and Oklahoma's mean and standard deviations that we calculated above and use them to determine how the teams will perform over a 10,000 game season, the distribution in the figure above begins to look like this:
       

       
      Now there are some bell curves.
       
      Facing Baker Mayfield 10,000 Times
       
      So we've made a lot of assumptions at this point.  Many of them questionably asserted, but not totally unreasonable.
       
      Now we bring randomness into play (which is where the "Monte Carlo" comes in to it).  Using a random number generator, you weigh the result of the random number within the bounds of the performance bell curve for each team (this is done using the "NORMINV" function in Excel, for anyone playing along at home).  Thus, outcomes near the mean of the bell curve are more likely than outcomes far from the mean.  A random number (between 0 and 1) is generated for TCU and another random number is generated for Oklahoma; if the random number is near 0.5, the team performs at its mean.  As the random number approaches 0, the team's performance moves out in to the left tail of the bell curve; approaching 1, the team is in the right tail.
       
      So to simulate TCU and Oklahoma facing off 10,000 times (DUSHEE predicts the probability that Mayfield would make an obscene gesture toward the TCU sideline after taking out a Arlington police officer with a warmup pass at 3%), you generate 10,000 random numbers for TCU and 10,000 for Oklahoma and you pair them up.  If the random number for Oklahoma lands at a location on its bell curve further to the right than TCU's, Oklahoma wins.  You can see from the bell curves above that Oklahoma has much more real estate in the 30 to 80 range than TCU does ... so when Oklahoma lands in this range, they are very likely to win.
       
      If you play this simulation out, on a neutral field (i.e., not giving any advantage to the home team), Oklahoma wins somewhere between 70-72% of the time.  The distribution of outcomes looks like this:
       

       
      So, when you begin to look at these games in a probabilistic manner, you can convince yourself pretty easily that the H2H argument as the be all, end all is a very incomplete picture.  No one thinks Syracuse is a better team than Clemson.  Yet, on October 13, Syracuse beat Clemson 27-24 in the Carrier Dome.  If you run the same simulation I just showed for TCU-Oklahoma and give Syracuse the DUSHEE-calculated 3.4 points for home field advantage, Clemson beats Syracuse 87% of the time by an average margin of 23 points.  But 13% of the time, Syracuse wins, just a little worse than the odds of rolling a six on a cubic die.
       
      Closing Asides and Thoughts
       
      As stated above, on average, home field is giving a 3.4 point advantage to the home team.  When a team's DUSHEE score is boosted by that amount, it improves the team's chances of winning by about 3-5%.
       
      And if you are skeptical about whether Oklahoma's inconsistency relative to TCU's is real (as I am), if you give Oklahoma the same standard deviation as TCU's, Oklahoma's chances of winning go up to 75%.  By tightening Oklahoma's bell curve, Oklahoma becomes less likely to blow TCU out, but since that right tail portion of Oklahoma's bell curve is beyond TCU's right tail bell curve, Oklahoma was going to win those games anyway.  Conversely, it also becomes less likely that Oklahoma will play a stinker (left tail of the bell curve) where TCU actually has a chance to win.  So we kinda need to hope that Oklahoma's relative inconsistency (compared to the Frogs) over 12 games is real.
       
      So take it easy on Nate Silver and his ilk over "missing" on the 2016 election.  Their predictions are only as good as the data they have and Quinnipiac polls (as measures of how people are going to vote) are probably worse data sources than college football games.  The uncertainty in those polls is why they were still giving Trump a 20-40% chance to win.  Basically the odds of flipping two coins and getting two heads.  About the odds we have against Oklahoma.
       
      So you're telling me there's a chance ...
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      As in previous years, I take a look at the Bowls through the lens of various computer models and the early Vegas point spreads.  This year I am switching from the ESPN FPI to the College Football Reference SRS score, primarily because they make it easier to play around with their data.  Maybe this year (unlike the last several), I'll actually go back and review how these picks turned out before closing out the DUSHEE season.  We'll see how motivated I am by then.
       
      In the tables below, DO is DUSHEE Original, DR is DUSHEE Revised (or Extra Crispy), DA is the average of the two DUSHEE rankings, Sag is Sagarin, and SRS is the College Football Reference "Simple Rating System".  I pulled the Sagarin and SRS numbers before the Army-Navy game, so the numbers may not be an exact match for those checking my work.
       
      TCU
       
      Alamo
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Stanford  9-4 10.20 12.30 85.53 12.50 4.08 TCU  10-3 14.00 17.73 87.18 14.59 4.52  
      Here we are again, back in ol' Saint Tony, to face off against a Pac-12 runner up.  That last game wasn't very exciting, but this one will be if the computers and Vegas are right.
       
      TCU is a unanimous, if small, favorite across the computational models and Vegas.  DUSHEE likes the Frogs a little more than Vegas, Sagarin a little less and the SRS pretty well nails the point spread:
       
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU  3.80 TCU  5.43 TCU  4.61 TCU  2 TCU  1.65 TCU  2.1  
      New Years Six
       
      Orange
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Wisconsin  12-1 24.45 28.65 93.09 22.65 2.73 Miami (FL)  10-2 9.04 12.25 83.72 15.97 5.62  
      Wisconsin is a unanimous favorite here as well, with all the computer models liking the Badgers more than Vegas.  DUSHEE likes Wiscy a LOT more than Vegas.  Vegas could be giving the Canes a home field advantage here.
       
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Wisconsin  15.40 Wisconsin  16.40 Wisconsin  15.90 Wisconsin  6.5 Wisconsin  9.37 Wisconsin  6.7  
      Peach
      The Peach Bowl is the first of several games pairing teams with a disparate strength-of-schedule.  As one would expect, the DUSHEE Revised punishes the lower SoS much more than the Original.  Auburn had the 2nd most difficult schedule in college football this year (Maryland's ranked the toughest) while UCF's schedule ranked 85th.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Auburn  10-3 26.81 34.81 92.18 18.42 9.09 UCF  12-0 20.63 20.54 83.72 16.78 -1.61  
      Auburn is a unanimous favorite, but Vegas likes the Tigers/WarEagles more than any of the computer models other than DUSHEE Revised.  DUSHEE Average is right at the point spread.
       
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Auburn  6.18 Auburn  14.28 Auburn  10.23 Auburn  10 Auburn  8.46 Auburn  1.6  
      Fiesta
      The Fiesta predictions follow the same pattern as the Orange, with all models liking the Nittany Lions more than Vegas.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Penn St.  10-2 25.00 27.67 96.58 21.57 1.85 Washington  10-2 17.99 19.55 92.24 17.56 -0.29  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Penn St.  7.01 Penn St.  8.12 Penn St.  7.57 Penn St.  3 Penn St.  4.34 Penn St.  4.0  
      Cotton
      Again, all the computer models like Ohio State more than Vegas.  DUSHEE and Sagarin like the Buckeyes A LOT more.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Ohio St.  11-2 30.94 39.28 96.34 21.24 4.30 USC  11-2 11.97 15.10 83.98 14.19 2.91  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St.  18.96 Ohio St.  24.18 Ohio St.  21.57 Ohio St.  7 Ohio St.  12.36 Ohio St.  7.1  
      Rose
      The models and Vegas are NOT unanimous for the two Semi-Final games.  For the Rose Bowl, the computers all like Georgia but Vegas (at least at the time I pulled the number) liked the Sooners.  None have the spread higher that 4-points.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Oklahoma  12-1 25.90 30.27 92.84 19.21 2.69 Georgia  12-1 27.31 33.93 95.34 22.70 5.72  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia  1.41 Georgia  3.66 Georgia  2.54 Oklahoma  1 Georgia  2.50 Georgia  3.5  
      Sugar
      The SRS likes Clemson, everybody else has the Tide as a small favorite.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Clemson  12-1 24.96 31.80 96.18 22.34 5.68 Alabama  11-1 29.27 32.25 98.90 18.95 2.79  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama  4.31 Alabama  0.45 Alabama  2.38 Alabama  2 Alabama  2.72 Clemson  3.4  
      Games of That Already Happened
      So I wasn't thinking and assumed I had another week before games started.  So here, I'll put the games that happened this weekend.  DUSHEE went against Vegas and most of the computer models and took Marshall, Boise, and Georgia State.  DUSHEE, along with everybody else, missed on the Middle Tennessee-Arkansas State matchup.  DUSHEE really liked Arkansas State, so while DUSHEE nailed a bunch of upsets, it also lost out on a high confidence pick in the Pick'em contest.
       
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Winner Margin Marshall  3.35 Marshall  3.95 Marshall  3.65 Colorado St.  5.5 Colorado St.  2.32 Colorado St.  1.3 Marshall  3 Boise St.  3.50 Boise St.  1.86 Boise St.  2.68 Oregon  5 Oregon  3.38 Boise St.  2.4 Boise St.  10 Arkansas St.  10.30 Arkansas St.  10.62 Arkansas St.  10.46 Arkansas St.  3.5 Arkansas St.  6.59 Arkansas St.  5.3 Middle Tenn. St.  5 Georgia State 0.50 Georgia State 2.73 Georgia State 1.61 West. Kentucky  4.5 West. Kentucky  4.34 West. Kentucky  2.0 Georgia State 10 Troy  8.38 Troy  5.98 Troy  7.18 Troy  6 Troy  7.22 Troy  4.7 Troy  20  
      Other Games of Texas or Big XII-II Interest
       
      Frisco
      The Ponies are unanimous favorites and the all the computer models other than DUSHEE Original like the Ponies more than Vegas.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Louisiana Tech  6-6 -2.36 -6.06 60.75 -4.52 -5.09 SMU  7-5 1.73 1.45 68.57 3.46 1.41  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS SMU  4.08 SMU  7.51 SMU  5.79 SMU  5 SMU  7.82 SMU  8.0  
      Armed Forces
      DUSHEE and Vegas are in close agreement, with the Aztecs about a touchdown favorite over Army.  Sagarin and SRS also like San Diego State, but not to cover.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Army  8-4 1.46 -0.27 68.78 2.26 -2.49 San Diego St.  10-2 8.97 7.03 74.05 6.49 -4.59  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS San Diego St.  7.51 San Diego St.  7.30 San Diego St.  7.40 San Diego St.  7 San Diego St.  5.27 San Diego St.  4.2  
      Hawaii
      DUSHEE and SRS like the Bulldogs, Vegas and Sagarin like the Cougars.  Everybody likes Fresno against the spread.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Houston  7-4 1.59 0.19 72.31 3.63 -2.91 Fresno St.  9-4 5.15 4.18 71.85 4.22 -1.47  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Fresno St.  3.56 Fresno St.  3.99 Fresno St.  3.78 Houston  1.5 Houston  0.46 Fresno St.  0.6  
      Heart of Dallas
      SRS likes the Mountaineers; everybody else likes the Utes.  Everybody likes WVU against the spread.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS West Virginia  7-5 3.86 6.49 75.71 6.11 3.63 Utah  6-6 6.17 7.80 77.70 5.13 1.55  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah  2.31 Utah  1.30 Utah  1.80 Utah  4.5 Utah  1.99 West Virginia  1.0  
      Cactus
      DUSHEE has been down on the Fightin' Snyders all year long compared to everybody else.  DUSHEE likes the Bruins, everyone else likes the Wildcats.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Kansas St.  7-5 -2.01 -2.06 77.70 4.78 1.53 UCLA  6-6 0.52 3.29 74.55 2.86 4.06  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCLA  2.53 UCLA  5.35 UCLA  3.94 Kansas St.  3 Kansas St.  3.15 Kansas St.  1.9  
      Camping World
      DUSHEE and Vegas like the Cowboys by almost a touchdown; Sagarin and SRS only like the Fightin' Mullets by about a point.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Virginia Tech  9-3 13.91 15.20 86.46 11.85 0.27 Oklahoma St.  9-3 19.64 21.71 87.67 12.52 0.14  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Oklahoma St.  5.73 Oklahoma St.  6.51 Oklahoma St.  6.12 Oklahoma St.  6.5 Oklahoma St.  1.21 Oklahoma St.  0.7  
      Texas
      Everybody likes the Horns except Vegas.  Sagarin likes Texas by almost a TD, everybody else by a field goal or less.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Texas  6-6 6.10 7.67 81.11 7.27 0.96 Missouri  7-5 3.84 3.62 74.35 5.34 -0.52  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas  2.26 Texas  4.06 Texas  3.16 Missouri  1 Texas  6.76 Texas  1.9  
      Birmingham
      This bowl pits the teams with the largest differential in strength-of-schedule which translates to a big difference in how the Original and Revised formulations of DUSHEE see this game.  Original DUSHEE has USF as a 9-point favorite; Revised DUSHEE likes Tech by under a point.  Sagarin agrees with Revised DUSHEE; Vegas, SRS, and Average DUSHEE are close.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Texas Tech  6-6 2.68 6.69 76.47 3.39 4.43 South Florida  9-2 11.70 6.04 75.52 7.30 -9.93  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS South Florida  9.03 Texas Tech  0.64 South Florida  4.19 South Florida  2.5 Texas Tech  0.95 South Florida  3.9  
      Belk
      It's easy to forget, especially those of us out of state, that A&M is still in Texas.  They face off against Wake Forest in Charlotte where the computer models all like Wake more than Vegas, and Vegas has the Demon Deacons as a 2.5-point favorite.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Wake Forest  7-5 7.59 11.82 80.21 11.66 7.14 Texas A&M  7-5 2.38 3.52 75.20 3.05 3.29  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Wake Forest  5.21 Wake Forest  8.31 Wake Forest  6.76 Wake Forest  2.5 Wake Forest  5.01 Wake Forest  8.6  
      Liberty
      The Cyclones face off against Memphis who is playing in their home stadium.  If Vegas views this as a home game for the Tigers, then the bettors view the teams as pretty well dead even, as does the SRS.  DUSHEE likes Memphis while Sagarin likes Iowa State.
       
      Team Record DO DR Sag SRS SoS Memphis  10-2 12.97 13.36 78.04 9.63 -0.67 Iowa St.  7-5 8.48 11.29 82.27 9.38 3.54  
      DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Memphis  4.49 Memphis  2.07 Memphis  3.28 Memphis  3 Iowa St.  4.23 Memphis  0.3  
      All the Others
      Here are the other games
          DO Fav DDO DR Fav DDR DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boca Raton   Florida Atlantic  23.09 Florida Atlantic  23.35 Florida Atlantic  23.22 Florida Atlantic  17 Florida Atlantic  12.79 Florida Atlantic  10.5 Potato   Cent. Michigan  4.16 Cent. Michigan  4.70 Cent. Michigan  4.43 even 0 Wyoming  2.98 Wyoming  1.3 Bahamas   Ohio  10.35 Ohio  12.15 Ohio  11.25 Ohio  8 Ohio  13.73 Ohio  8.7 Dollar General   Toledo  5.92 Toledo  7.62 Toledo  6.77 Toledo  7 Toledo  6.98 Toledo  9.3 Gasparilla   Temple  2.43 Temple  6.44 Temple  4.44 Temple  8 Temple  8.11 Temple  3.0 Quick Lane   Northern Illinois  2.30 Duke  0.12 Northern Illinois  1.09 Duke  2.5 Duke  6.66 Duke  2.8 Independence   Florida St.  3.77 Florida St.  15.49 Florida St.  9.63 Florida St.  14 Florida St.  17.8 Florida St.  11.9 Military   Navy  7.82 Navy  7.36 Navy  7.59 Navy  3.5 Navy  1.72 Navy  3.3 Holiday   Washington St.  2.11 Washington St.  1.18 Washington St.  1.65 Washington St.  4.5 Washington St.  0.8 Michigan St.  3.6 Pinstripe   Iowa  4.66 Iowa  4.05 Iowa  4.36 Iowa  3 Iowa  5.76 Iowa  4.0 Foster Farms   Purdue  3.84 Purdue  5.97 Purdue  4.91 Arizona  4.5 Purdue  1.79 Purdue  5.6 Sun   N.C. State  6.44 N.C. State  9.05 N.C. State  7.75 N.C. State  5 N.C. State  5.4 N.C. State  5.5 Music City   Northwestern  14.26 Northwestern  16.61 Northwestern  15.43 Northwestern  8.5 Northwestern  14.65 Northwestern  10.5 Arizona   Utah St.  0.65 Utah St.  2.30 Utah St.  1.47 Utah St.  3 Utah St.  9.41 Utah St.  9.3 Citrus   Notre Dame  7.60 Notre Dame  10.32 Notre Dame  8.96 LSU  2.5 Notre Dame  6.23 Notre Dame  8.4 Outback   Michigan  12.42 Michigan  16.33 Michigan  14.37 Michigan  8.5 Michigan  7.71 Michigan  7.8 TaxSlayer   Mississippi St.  3.12 Mississippi St.  5.95 Mississippi St.  4.53 Louisville  6 Mississippi St.  1.36 Mississippi St.  0.4  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.
       
      The Frogs
       
      At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as strongly as they started it, as can be seen in the week-to-week tallies (by rows, Opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score):
       
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay # OU   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 2.08 24.90 11.70 -4.42   1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 97.75 -26.60 -9.60 59.83   6.73 23.07 29.03   1.26 22.71 27.13 4.77 24.48 6.20 15.29 7.33 0.00  
      The Frogs' best five performances all occurred in the first 8 games of the season.  Arguably their worst four performances (WVU looks worse due to their late-season swoon after Grier got hurt) occurred in the last 6 games.  After showing some flashes of brilliance against SMU and Oklahoma State, the offense grew inconsistent and less threatening as the season progressed and while the defense was generally very impressive down the stretch, Oklahoma made them look very pedestrian twice.
       
      But remember, the Frogs were 6-7 and ranked 50th a year ago.  Any of us would have taken 10-3 and a clear 2nd place finish in the conference this time last year.
       
      The Frogs Final Opponent: Stanford
       
      So the Trees went 9-4, also losing their conference championship rematch, but losing it in a slightly more impressive fashion (albeit against a weaker opponent).  Stanford sits at 26th in the DUSHEE rankings, but are only a spot behind the Frogs in point differential (TCU: 14.8, Stanford: 13.7).  The Frogs advantage is mostly in yardage differential (TCU: 84.1, Stanford: 22.3).  So Stanford has had to move the ball less to get its points, usually a good sign that Stanford has gotten more turnovers than the Frogs have, and that bears out -- Stanford has a turnover margin per game of 1.15 (6th in the country) versus TCU's 0.31 (49th).
       
      Stanford's week-to-week numbers look like this:
       
      # Rice @ USC @ SDSU  UCLA  ASU @ Utah  Ore   @ OreSt @ WSU  Wash  Cal  ND # USC 38.73 -10.58 9.00 22.91 11.64 7.90 50.70   -26.00 2.00 30.10 1.20 34.36 5.67 349.91 -212.83 -22.60 -63.18 79.55 53.10 297.30   -201.20 -133.70 216.40 5.10 1.36 -79.58 43.04 -17.53 4.89 12.16 11.67 7.88 48.43   -27.23 -5.25 30.71 1.05 22.98 -0.14  
      In this, you see that Stanford has been really very inconsistent (see last week's blog post for more discussion of this); in fact the Trees are among the 10 most inconsistent teams in college football this season..  Against Rice, Oregon, and Washington, Stanford played like world-beaters, all better performances than any single TCU game.  Against USC (both times, but particularly the first time), Oregon State, and Washington State, the Cardinal were between below average and pretty terrible, far worse than TCU has looked in any one game this year.  Stanford beat Oregon State by 1 and were outgained by 42 (coming off of a bye week); Oregon beat Oregon State by 59 and outgained them by 366.  Oregon State is Kansas.
       
      So if we put both teams in the ol' Monte Carlo simulator, the Frogs win 56% of the time by an average of about 3.4 points.
       
      Performances of the (last two) Week(s)
      Top 3
      43.32 Georgia vs. Auburn (Point Margin: 21, Yardage Margin: 162)
      37.47 Clemson vs. Miami (PM: 35, YM: 117)
      36.60 Oklahoma vs. TCU (PM: 24, YM: 144)
       
      Bottom 3
      -40.61 Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian St. (PM: -49, YM: -239)
      -36.53 Louisiana-Monroe at Florida St. (PM: -32, YM: -204)
      -23.47 UMass at FIU (PM: -18, YM: -134)
       
      Performances of the Year
       
      Since we're at the end of the regular season, I thought this would be a good time to go back and look at the games that received the highest and lowest DUSHEE scores during the season.  The best and worst performances were both owned by Roy Moore's home state.  Three of the ten worst performances of the year were by the San Jose (effing) State Spartans.
       
      Top 10
      63.42 Alabama (Week 4) at Vanderbilt 59-0
      61.96 Alabama (Week 5) vs. Mississippi 66-3
      57.22 Iowa (Week 10) vs. Ohio State 55-24
      56.79 Ohio State (Week 11) vs. Michigan St. 48-3 
      54.46 Auburn (Week 11) vs. Georgia 40-17
      48.82 Penn St. (Week 3) vs. Georgia St. 56-0
      48.43 Stanford (Week 7) vs. Oregon 49-7
      47.73 Auburn (Week 5) vs. Mississippi St. 49-10
      47.52 Florida Atlantic (Week 8) at North Texas 69-31
      47.46 Penn St. (Week 1) vs. Akron 52-0
       
      Bottom 10
      -72.39 South Alabama (Week 12) at Georgia Southern 0-52
      -61.78 San Jose St. (Week 4) vs. Utah St. 10-61
      -57.17 San Jose St. (Week 2) at Texas 0-56
      -56.17 Oregon St. (Week 13) at Oregon 10-69
      -54.75 Rice (Week 1) vs. Stanford 7-62
      -54.53 Cincinnati (Week 12) at East Carolina 20-48
      -54.43 UNC-Charlotte (Week 2) at Kansas St. 7-55
      -51.58 New Mexico (Week 11) at Texas A&M 14-55
      -51.58 Coastal Carolina (Week 9) vs. Texas St. 7-27
      -49.60 San Jose St. (Week 11) at Nevada 14-59
       
      Conference Rankings
       
      I recognize that this will be an unpopular ranking, but if you average up the DUSHEE scores for all the teams in each conference, the Big 10 comes out as the top conference, edging out the ACC.  The Big 12 started the year strong, sitting at one or two through most of the season, but fell to 4th by the end of the season as other conferences added more non-conference games.  The AAC is about where the Mountain West was when the Frogs were in the conference, clearly a notch or two below the "Power 5" but a notch or two above the other "Group of 5" conferences.  Our old home is now closer to the MAC and Sun Belt than they are to the American Athletic Conference, let alone the big boys.
       
      B10 5.72 ACC 5.51 SEC 5.23 B12 4.73 P12 3.48 AAC -0.69 MWC -5.84 MAC -7.29 CUSA -7.38 SBC -8.11  
      Final Regular Season Rankings
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 0 0.36 2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 1 -0.13 3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 1 1.47 4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 -2 -2.64 5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 0 0.48 6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 0 -0.29 7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 1 1.09 8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 -1 -0.57 9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 0 -0.29 10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 0 -0.27 11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 0 -0.45 12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 0 -0.23 13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 0 -0.51 14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 0 -1.27 15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 0 -0.25 16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 0 0.19 17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 9 1.06 18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 4 0.34 19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 -2 -0.37 20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 -2 -0.23 21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 2 0.43 22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 -1 -0.19 23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 -3 -0.58 24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 -5 -0.61 25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 0 -0.30 26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 -2 -0.85 27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 1 -0.48 28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 1 -0.09 29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 -2 -1.45 30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 3 0.41 31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 -1 -0.25 32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 -1 -0.26 33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 -1 -0.42 34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 2 0.79 35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 -1 -0.10 36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 -1 -0.25 37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 4 0.37 38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 -1 -0.17 39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 -1 -0.29 40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 0 -0.13 41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 -2 -0.28 42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 2 1.49 43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 -1 -0.16 44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 -1 -0.05 45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 2 0.06 46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 -1 -0.30 47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 -1 -0.23 48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 13 3.02 49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 10 1.87 50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 2 0.32 51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 -2 -0.21 52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 -4 -0.40 53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 0 0.01 54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 -3 -0.30 55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 0 -0.04 56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 -6 -0.68 57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 -3 -0.94 58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 0 -0.04 59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 -2 -0.21 60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 -4 -0.50 61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 -1 -0.29 62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 1 0.01 63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 1 -0.04 64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 -2 -0.43 65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 0 0.08 66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 1 -0.36 67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 2 -0.01 68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 0 -0.43 69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 -3 -1.15 70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 1 0.15 71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 -1 -0.31 72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 1 -0.07 73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 3 0.05 74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 0 -0.01 75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 -3 -0.40 76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 1 0.06 77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 -2 -0.14 78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 0 -0.67 79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 2 0.35 80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 -1 -0.25 81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 -1 -0.40 82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 11 2.32 83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 -1 0.03 84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 1 0.30 85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 -1 -0.07 86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 -3 -0.29 87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 -1 -0.08 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 0 0.00 89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 1 0.23 90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 -1 0.00 91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 -4 -1.10 92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 -1 -0.40 93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 -1 -0.14 94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 1 -0.03 95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 -1 -0.31 96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 1 -0.05 97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 2 -0.09 98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 0 -0.51 99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 5 0.36 100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 0 -0.39 101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 -5 -2.52 102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 1 0.00 103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 -2 -0.55 104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 1 -0.36 105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 -3 -0.53 106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 3 1.43 107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 0 0.25 108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 3 0.99 109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 -3 -1.50 110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 -2 -0.17 111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 -1 -0.03 112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88 0 -0.18 113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 0 0.00 114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 0 0.00 115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 0 -0.37 116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 0 -0.33 117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 0 -0.27 118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 0 -0.30 119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 1 -0.06 120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 -1 -0.12 121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 1 -0.06 122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 -1 -1.99 123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 0 -0.14 124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 0 -0.13 125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 1 0.34 126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 -1 0.04 127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 0 -0.27 128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 0 0.02 129 UTEP  -25.84 -197.46 -26.95 0 -0.13 130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 0 -0.10  
      By Conference
      AAC
      9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 ACC
      7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 CUSA
      17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 129 UTEP  -25.85 -197.45 -26.95 Indies
      11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 MAC
      27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 MWC
      25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 P12
      12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 SBC
      38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 SEC
      2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.
       
      TCU Week-to-Week
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 1.73 24.90 11.70   1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 103.45 -26.60 -9.60   6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33  
      TCU's Next Opponent (OU) Week-to-Week
       UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex @ KSU  Ttech @ OkSt  TCU @ Kan  WVU 26.18 42.45 41.30 -4.80   1.20 13.64 11.60 22.70 28.55 36.10 9.90 32.10 317.73 414.45 300.90 57.50   93.90 150.64 141.50 206.60 330.18 201.20 156.90 300.80 33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17  
      Conference Rankings
      B10 6.02 SEC 5.52 ACC 5.38 B12 5.06 P12 3.63 AAC -0.42 MWC -5.70 MAC -7.31 CUSA -7.58 SBC -8.15  
      Top 3 Performances
      39.46 Auburn vs. Alabama (+12 Point Margin, +31 Yardage Margin)
      39.36 Georgia at Georgia Tech (+31 PM, +245 YM)
      38.44 Penn St. at Maryland (+63 PM, +231 YM)
       
      Bottom 3 Performances
      -56.13 Oregon St. at Oregon (-59 PM, -366 YM)
      -45.07 Texas St. at Troy (-53 PM, -341 YM)
      -41.17 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (-18 PM, -291 YM)
       
      Overall Rankings
      Rank Team P/G Y/G Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 0 -1.23 2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 1 0.86 3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 -1 -1.73 4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 0 0.66 5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 0 0.54 6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 0 0.99 7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 0 0.78 8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 0 0.36 9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 1 0.27 10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 1 -0.31 11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 -2 -1.45 12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 1 1.47 13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 -1 -1.93 14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 0 -1.33 15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 0 -1.33 16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 5 1.58 17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 3 0.27 18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 5 2.10 19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 8 2.21 20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 6 2.04 21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 -4 -1.59 22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 -4 -1.25 23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 1 1.43 24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 1 1.32 25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 -6 -0.96 26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 -4 -0.16 27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 -11 -3.97 28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 6 2.00 29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 1 0.25 30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 2 0.76 31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 4 1.16 32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 -3 -0.41 33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 -5 -0.76 34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 8 2.54 35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 2 -0.64 36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 -3 -1.64 37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 15 3.79 38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 -7 -2.47 39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 -3 -1.39 40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 5 1.97 41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 2 1.53 42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 -3 -0.87 43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 5 1.79 44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 5 1.10 45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 -5 -1.79 46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 -2 -0.41 47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 -6 -0.92 48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 -2 -0.44 49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 1 0.35 50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 -12 -3.95 51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 2 0.63 52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 2 0.96 53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 -6 -0.92 54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 -3 -0.23 55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 3 1.36 56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 0 0.43 57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 7 1.72 58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 1 0.88 59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 -4 -0.09 60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 1 0.34 61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 8 1.92 62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 3 0.45 63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 -6 -1.59 64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 -4 -0.69 65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 -2 -0.83 66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 1 0.31 67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 12 2.44 68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 3 0.12 69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 -7 -2.03 70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 3 0.42 71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 -1 -0.69 72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 3 0.16 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 13 2.56 74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 6 1.44 75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 -3 -0.76 76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 -8 -1.48 77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 10 2.24 78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 -1 0.30 79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 -5 -1.06 80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 -14 -2.91 81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 -5 -1.15 82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 6 0.41 83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 2 0.18 84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 0 -0.18 85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 11 2.99 86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 -3 -0.70 87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 3 0.48 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 -6 -1.22 89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 -11 -2.34 90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 4 1.86 91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 -2 -1.01 92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 -11 -2.34 93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 7 2.29 94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 -1 -0.14 95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 0 0.40 96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 -4 -0.44 97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 7 1.85 98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 -1 -0.62 99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 -1 -0.51 100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 -1 -0.52 101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 -10 -2.86 102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 5 1.58 103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 5 1.58 104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 -1 -0.28 105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 -3 -0.66 106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 4 2.02 107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 -1 0.09 108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 -3 -1.91 109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 2 0.31 110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 -1 -0.63 111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 1 0.36 112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70 -11 -3.76 113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 10 3.39 114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 2 1.06 115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 -2 -1.62 116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 6 0.88 117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 4 0.05 118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 -3 -1.61 119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 -5 -2.53 120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 -3 -1.22 121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 -3 -1.53 122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 -2 -2.65 123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 -4 -4.27 124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 0 1.09 125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 2 0.97 126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 0 0.56 127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 -2 -0.88 128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 0 1.62 129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 0 1.09 130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 0 3.47  
      By Conference
      AAC
      9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 ACC
      8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 CUSA
      26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 Indies
      11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 MAC
      28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 MWC
      25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 P12
      12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 SBC
      37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 SEC
      2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70  
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