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  • Blog Entries

    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      Now that Army-Navy is over, the 2017 regular season has officially come to a close.  A Bowl preview is yet to come, but before that, let's sum up the season.
       
      The Frogs
       
      At the end of last season, the Frogs were ranked 50th in DUSHEE, the same spot occupied this year by the Marshall Thundering Herd.  So, based on that perspective, TCU's 14th place finish this year is probably better than most anybody could have expected.  That said, the Frogs did not end the season as strongly as they started it, as can be seen in the week-to-week tallies (by rows, Opponent, point differential, yardage differential, DUSHEE score):
       
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay # OU   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 2.08 24.90 11.70 -4.42   1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 97.75 -26.60 -9.60 59.83   6.73 23.07 29.03   1.26 22.71 27.13 4.77 24.48 6.20 15.29 7.33 0.00  
      The Frogs' best five performances all occurred in the first 8 games of the season.  Arguably their worst four performances (WVU looks worse due to their late-season swoon after Grier got hurt) occurred in the last 6 games.  After showing some flashes of brilliance against SMU and Oklahoma State, the offense grew inconsistent and less threatening as the season progressed and while the defense was generally very impressive down the stretch, Oklahoma made them look very pedestrian twice.
       
      But remember, the Frogs were 6-7 and ranked 50th a year ago.  Any of us would have taken 10-3 and a clear 2nd place finish in the conference this time last year.
       
      The Frogs Final Opponent: Stanford
       
      So the Trees went 9-4, also losing their conference championship rematch, but losing it in a slightly more impressive fashion (albeit against a weaker opponent).  Stanford sits at 26th in the DUSHEE rankings, but are only a spot behind the Frogs in point differential (TCU: 14.8, Stanford: 13.7).  The Frogs advantage is mostly in yardage differential (TCU: 84.1, Stanford: 22.3).  So Stanford has had to move the ball less to get its points, usually a good sign that Stanford has gotten more turnovers than the Frogs have, and that bears out -- Stanford has a turnover margin per game of 1.15 (6th in the country) versus TCU's 0.31 (49th).
       
      Stanford's week-to-week numbers look like this:
       
      # Rice @ USC @ SDSU  UCLA  ASU @ Utah  Ore   @ OreSt @ WSU  Wash  Cal  ND # USC 38.73 -10.58 9.00 22.91 11.64 7.90 50.70   -26.00 2.00 30.10 1.20 34.36 5.67 349.91 -212.83 -22.60 -63.18 79.55 53.10 297.30   -201.20 -133.70 216.40 5.10 1.36 -79.58 43.04 -17.53 4.89 12.16 11.67 7.88 48.43   -27.23 -5.25 30.71 1.05 22.98 -0.14  
      In this, you see that Stanford has been really very inconsistent (see last week's blog post for more discussion of this); in fact the Trees are among the 10 most inconsistent teams in college football this season..  Against Rice, Oregon, and Washington, Stanford played like world-beaters, all better performances than any single TCU game.  Against USC (both times, but particularly the first time), Oregon State, and Washington State, the Cardinal were between below average and pretty terrible, far worse than TCU has looked in any one game this year.  Stanford beat Oregon State by 1 and were outgained by 42 (coming off of a bye week); Oregon beat Oregon State by 59 and outgained them by 366.  Oregon State is Kansas.
       
      So if we put both teams in the ol' Monte Carlo simulator, the Frogs win 56% of the time by an average of about 3.4 points.
       
      Performances of the (last two) Week(s)
      Top 3
      43.32 Georgia vs. Auburn (Point Margin: 21, Yardage Margin: 162)
      37.47 Clemson vs. Miami (PM: 35, YM: 117)
      36.60 Oklahoma vs. TCU (PM: 24, YM: 144)
       
      Bottom 3
      -40.61 Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian St. (PM: -49, YM: -239)
      -36.53 Louisiana-Monroe at Florida St. (PM: -32, YM: -204)
      -23.47 UMass at FIU (PM: -18, YM: -134)
       
      Performances of the Year
       
      Since we're at the end of the regular season, I thought this would be a good time to go back and look at the games that received the highest and lowest DUSHEE scores during the season.  The best and worst performances were both owned by Roy Moore's home state.  Three of the ten worst performances of the year were by the San Jose (effing) State Spartans.
       
      Top 10
      63.42 Alabama (Week 4) at Vanderbilt 59-0
      61.96 Alabama (Week 5) vs. Mississippi 66-3
      57.22 Iowa (Week 10) vs. Ohio State 55-24
      56.79 Ohio State (Week 11) vs. Michigan St. 48-3 
      54.46 Auburn (Week 11) vs. Georgia 40-17
      48.82 Penn St. (Week 3) vs. Georgia St. 56-0
      48.43 Stanford (Week 7) vs. Oregon 49-7
      47.73 Auburn (Week 5) vs. Mississippi St. 49-10
      47.52 Florida Atlantic (Week 8) at North Texas 69-31
      47.46 Penn St. (Week 1) vs. Akron 52-0
       
      Bottom 10
      -72.39 South Alabama (Week 12) at Georgia Southern 0-52
      -61.78 San Jose St. (Week 4) vs. Utah St. 10-61
      -57.17 San Jose St. (Week 2) at Texas 0-56
      -56.17 Oregon St. (Week 13) at Oregon 10-69
      -54.75 Rice (Week 1) vs. Stanford 7-62
      -54.53 Cincinnati (Week 12) at East Carolina 20-48
      -54.43 UNC-Charlotte (Week 2) at Kansas St. 7-55
      -51.58 New Mexico (Week 11) at Texas A&M 14-55
      -51.58 Coastal Carolina (Week 9) vs. Texas St. 7-27
      -49.60 San Jose St. (Week 11) at Nevada 14-59
       
      Conference Rankings
       
      I recognize that this will be an unpopular ranking, but if you average up the DUSHEE scores for all the teams in each conference, the Big 10 comes out as the top conference, edging out the ACC.  The Big 12 started the year strong, sitting at one or two through most of the season, but fell to 4th by the end of the season as other conferences added more non-conference games.  The AAC is about where the Mountain West was when the Frogs were in the conference, clearly a notch or two below the "Power 5" but a notch or two above the other "Group of 5" conferences.  Our old home is now closer to the MAC and Sun Belt than they are to the American Athletic Conference, let alone the big boys.
       
      B10 5.72 ACC 5.51 SEC 5.23 B12 4.73 P12 3.48 AAC -0.69 MWC -5.84 MAC -7.29 CUSA -7.38 SBC -8.11  
      Final Regular Season Rankings
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 0 0.36 2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 1 -0.13 3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 1 1.47 4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 -2 -2.64 5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 0 0.48 6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 0 -0.29 7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 1 1.09 8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 -1 -0.57 9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 0 -0.29 10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 0 -0.27 11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 0 -0.45 12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 0 -0.23 13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 0 -0.51 14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 0 -1.27 15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 0 -0.25 16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 0 0.19 17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 9 1.06 18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 4 0.34 19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 -2 -0.37 20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 -2 -0.23 21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 2 0.43 22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 -1 -0.19 23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 -3 -0.58 24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 -5 -0.61 25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 0 -0.30 26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 -2 -0.85 27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 1 -0.48 28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 1 -0.09 29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 -2 -1.45 30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 3 0.41 31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 -1 -0.25 32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 -1 -0.26 33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 -1 -0.42 34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 2 0.79 35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 -1 -0.10 36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 -1 -0.25 37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 4 0.37 38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 -1 -0.17 39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 -1 -0.29 40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 0 -0.13 41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 -2 -0.28 42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 2 1.49 43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 -1 -0.16 44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 -1 -0.05 45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 2 0.06 46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 -1 -0.30 47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 -1 -0.23 48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 13 3.02 49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 10 1.87 50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 2 0.32 51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 -2 -0.21 52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 -4 -0.40 53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 0 0.01 54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 -3 -0.30 55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 0 -0.04 56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 -6 -0.68 57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 -3 -0.94 58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 0 -0.04 59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 -2 -0.21 60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 -4 -0.50 61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 -1 -0.29 62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 1 0.01 63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 1 -0.04 64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 -2 -0.43 65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 0 0.08 66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 1 -0.36 67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 2 -0.01 68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 0 -0.43 69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 -3 -1.15 70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 1 0.15 71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 -1 -0.31 72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 1 -0.07 73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 3 0.05 74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 0 -0.01 75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 -3 -0.40 76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 1 0.06 77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 -2 -0.14 78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 0 -0.67 79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 2 0.35 80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 -1 -0.25 81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 -1 -0.40 82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 11 2.32 83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 -1 0.03 84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 1 0.30 85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 -1 -0.07 86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 -3 -0.29 87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 -1 -0.08 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 0 0.00 89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 1 0.23 90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 -1 0.00 91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 -4 -1.10 92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 -1 -0.40 93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 -1 -0.14 94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 1 -0.03 95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 -1 -0.31 96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 1 -0.05 97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 2 -0.09 98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 0 -0.51 99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 5 0.36 100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 0 -0.39 101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 -5 -2.52 102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 1 0.00 103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 -2 -0.55 104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 1 -0.36 105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 -3 -0.53 106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 3 1.43 107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 0 0.25 108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 3 0.99 109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 -3 -1.50 110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 -2 -0.17 111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 -1 -0.03 112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88 0 -0.18 113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 0 0.00 114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 0 0.00 115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 0 -0.37 116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 0 -0.33 117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 0 -0.27 118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 0 -0.30 119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 1 -0.06 120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 -1 -0.12 121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 1 -0.06 122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 -1 -1.99 123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 0 -0.14 124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 0 -0.13 125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 1 0.34 126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 -1 0.04 127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 0 -0.27 128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 0 0.02 129 UTEP  -25.84 -197.46 -26.95 0 -0.13 130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 0 -0.10  
      By Conference
      AAC
      9 UCF  22.76 111.00 20.63 16 Memphis  15.21 57.62 12.97 20 South Florida  9.13 114.19 11.70 43 Navy  4.65 44.22 5.27 57 SMU  3.46 -11.79 1.73 59 Houston  2.19 2.77 1.59 68 Temple  -3.33 6.76 -1.89 83 Tulane  -2.71 -53.75 -4.45 100 Tulsa  -7.41 -95.73 -9.65 110 Cincinnati  -13.11 -71.85 -12.28 116 Connecticut  -16.25 -114.57 -16.47 118 East Carolina  -19.09 -95.47 -17.42 ACC
      7 Clemson  23.86 183.87 24.96 15 Virginia Tech  13.54 99.25 13.91 21 Louisville  7.86 130.03 11.64 29 Miami (FL)  11.59 26.71 9.04 30 N.C. State  7.05 87.09 8.99 34 Wake Forest  9.11 30.84 7.59 37 Boston Coll.  7.97 24.22 6.51 39 Georgia Tech  2.79 87.76 6.18 49 Florida St.  3.78 19.37 3.47 58 Duke  1.36 14.93 1.64 66 Pittsburgh  -1.59 -7.48 -1.43 73 Syracuse  -4.68 12.91 -2.49 75 Virginia  -3.96 1.91 -2.55 104 North Carolina  -9.41 -82.62 -10.34 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  26.67 267.33 30.94 6 Penn St.  27.51 135.34 25.00 8 Wisconsin  23.55 177.71 24.45 19 Michigan  9.56 110.24 11.80 24 Iowa  15.38 18.52 11.17 28 Michigan St.  6.76 98.58 9.36 32 Northwestern  10.58 34.83 8.77 36 Purdue  7.53 31.67 6.58 52 Indiana  0.79 49.86 2.98 80 Minnesota  -2.02 -44.06 -3.52 81 Nebraska  -4.28 -19.53 -3.81 103 Maryland  -10.02 -66.78 -9.97 115 Illinois  -15.16 -122.66 -16.14 120 Rutgers  -14.80 -154.21 -17.45 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  22.62 219.88 25.90 10 Oklahoma St.  16.46 176.15 19.64 14 TCU  14.79 84.11 14.00 33 Iowa St.  10.68 27.65 8.48 41 Texas  6.17 40.47 6.10 46 West Virginia  3.13 36.04 3.86 54 Texas Tech  1.78 30.31 2.68 71 Kansas St.  2.93 -80.64 -2.01 95 Baylor  -9.36 -23.31 -7.39 127 Kansas  -25.20 -145.01 -23.94 CUSA
      17 Florida Atlantic  13.60 60.31 12.03 50 Marshall  3.04 21.79 3.10 62 UT-San Antonio -2.95 35.98 -0.20 64 Southern Miss  -3.16 36.81 -0.30 69 North Texas  -2.26 -8.00 -1.90 72 Louisiana Tech  -2.81 -9.78 -2.36 82 Florida Intl.  -3.40 -41.67 -4.32 84 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.09 -9.12 -4.51 94 UAB -6.46 -60.60 -7.29 99 West. Kentucky  -11.45 -39.34 -9.57 119 Old Dominion -16.93 -124.77 -17.42 124 Rice  -22.70 -121.38 -21.10 125 UNC-Charlotte -20.76 -177.89 -22.59 129 UTEP  -25.85 -197.45 -26.95 Indies
      11 Notre Dame  19.05 123.70 18.79 60 Army  1.64 7.51 1.46 91 Massachusetts -8.76 -14.02 -6.53 105 BYU  -10.63 -66.42 -10.35 MAC
      27 Toledo  9.77 63.70 9.65 45 Northern Illinois  4.55 18.49 3.94 51 Ohio  4.38 2.85 3.06 67 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.56 -1.59 70 W. Michigan  -0.30 -34.99 -1.92 74 Buffalo  -1.62 -29.08 -2.51 76 Cent. Michigan  -2.17 -22.79 -2.57 87 Miami (OH)  -6.40 -21.37 -5.32 107 Akron  -6.17 -141.06 -11.06 113 Bowling Green  -13.04 -120.32 -14.62 126 Kent St.  -23.68 -142.72 -22.81 128 Ball St.  -28.15 -122.54 -24.80 MWC
      25 Boise St.  10.92 69.90 10.72 31 San Diego St.  8.19 71.24 8.97 44 Fresno St.  5.33 32.49 5.15 63 Colorado St.  -1.36 13.40 -0.25 85 Air Force  -5.57 -22.62 -4.82 86 Utah St.  -2.49 -66.14 -4.92 93 Wyoming  -2.42 -103.90 -6.73 96 Nevada  -6.40 -75.79 -7.99 97 UNLV  -7.93 -73.14 -8.89 111 New Mexico  -14.13 -63.40 -12.54 117 Hawaii  -18.65 -96.15 -17.16 130 San Jose St.  -30.67 -228.11 -31.67 P12
      12 Washington  19.11 106.55 17.99 18 USC  11.18 91.85 11.97 22 Washington St.  7.74 128.33 11.47 26 Stanford  13.66 22.28 10.20 35 Oregon  5.28 75.07 7.21 40 Utah  5.37 52.48 6.17 53 Arizona  2.71 18.88 2.74 55 Arizona St.  3.45 5.05 2.55 61 UCLA  1.16 -5.16 0.52 77 California  -1.47 -34.05 -2.66 90 Colorado  -4.21 -57.38 -5.63 123 Oregon St.  -21.95 -124.12 -20.74 SBC
      38 Troy  8.08 22.26 6.48 42 Arkansas St.  4.01 63.38 5.79 48 Appalachian State 4.11 20.17 3.73 89 New Mexico St.  -8.58 3.16 -5.56 98 Georgia State -10.28 -45.02 -9.07 101 LA Monroe  -8.74 -80.61 -9.79 106 Idaho  -10.11 -85.92 -10.97 108 Coastal Carolina -11.50 -80.30 -11.62 109 Georgia Southern -12.16 -80.87 -12.09 114 South Alabama -13.66 -117.25 -14.88 121 Texas St. -20.69 -119.16 -19.66 122 LA Lafayette  -19.34 -138.81 -19.72 SEC
      2 Alabama  27.66 220.07 29.27 3 Georgia  26.69 193.49 27.31 4 Auburn  25.91 193.88 26.81 13 Mississippi St.  13.11 122.27 14.76 23 LSU  8.84 107.69 11.19 47 Missouri  3.82 26.29 3.84 56 Texas A&M  2.67 12.28 2.38 65 South Carolina  2.36 -44.70 -0.62 78 Mississippi  -3.73 -18.45 -3.39 79 Florida  -3.91 -16.96 -3.44 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.25 -5.49 92 Arkansas  -6.50 -47.17 -6.66 102 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.23 -9.88 112 Tennessee  -10.64 -117.54 -12.88  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 1

       
      Much ado was made during the 2016 presidential election about the analytical odds placed on Trump/Clinton winning the White House.  In particular, the oddsmakers had Clinton as the universal favorite on election day, at odds (as memory serves) anywhere from 60-80%.  And when Trump won, many took the opportunity to slam "inaccuracy" of the analytics.
       
      But what does it mean when one claims that someone's odds of winning are 60%?  Where does that number come from?  If an analysis puts the odds of something happening at 70% and that something doesn't happen, does it mean that the analysis was wrong (spoiler: almost certainly, but probably not in the way you think)? Or did something improbable simply happen (spoiler: also almost certainly)?
       
      At the crux of understanding of this topic, we first have to get comfortable with the concept of uncertainty.  Those in the science/statistics game are trained to get comfortable with the concept, but it is not a concept that humans necessarily have a natural affinity for.  In fact, uncertainty makes most people really uncomfortable.  We don't like to think of forces that act on us as being in any way random.  "Everything happens for a reason," we love to tell ourselves.
       
      But whether we like uncertainty or not, every halfway complex interaction that occurs is fraught with uncertainty and randomness.  The variables at play are many and unaccountable with the time and hardware available to us in the moment to assess them.  Did that man in Pennsylvania see an ad right before the election that made him change his vote?  Did that woman in Wisconsin have a child get sick the morning of the election which caused her not to vote when she would have?
       
      Now don't worry ... I'm not going to talk politics here.  We're going to use college football for our example, but the principles apply to the political example too.
       
      So how does someone determine the odds of a team winning?
       
      First, you need some data.  For this example, we'll use DUSHEE's modified Point Differential metric.  And let's take two teams, totally at random ... say TCU and Oklahoma.
       
      As I write this, TCU has played 11 DUSHEE-recognized games, Oklahoma has played 12.  The week-to-week DUSHEE score for each team is as follows:
       
      TCU
        Ark SMU OkSt   WVU KSU Kan ISU Tex OU Ttech Bay   6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33 OU
      UTEP OhSt Tulane Bay   ISU Tex KSU Ttech OkSt TCU Kan WVU 33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17  
      In theory, the DUSHEE score should represent how many points better (or worse) the team performed than an average team would have performed against that team.  You will note that there is a fair amount of variability in how each team has performed game-to-game.  TCU has bounced between 1.27 (against WVU) and 29.01 (Oklahoma State) for an average of 15.27.  Oklahoma has played between -0.38 (against Baylor) and 48.65 (Ohio State) for an average of 25.43.
       
      On average, Oklahoma has been about 10 points better than the Frogs.  However, the Sooners' performance has also been much more inconsistent -- their worst performance was worse than TCU's and their best performance was (much) better.  The range (best minus worst) of Oklahoma's performance (49.0) has been much greater than TCU's (27.7).
       
      So while you are more likely to get a 40+ point differential performance from OU (they've done it twice, TCU hasn't even hit 30), OU is also more likely to give a negative point differential performance than TCU is.
       
      You Are Such a Standard Deviant
       
      The most common method for measuring this spread is standard deviation.  I'm going to assume that most of you have heard the term and I'm going to assume that the majority either know what it means or don't care enough to spend time going into it here.  I talked a bit about it in a blog post several years ago on the Monte Carlo method.
       
      But I do need to make a few points about standard deviation before we proceed.  First, using standard deviation (or any assessment of spread) is a bit dicey when talking about as few data points as we have here (11-12 games).  Second, standard deviation is based on the assumption that the data being analyzed has a "normal" or "bell-curve" distribution; i.e., a team is more likely to perform at or near their average performance than they are further away from average.
       
      Go back to the game-to-game data for each team above and you can see how well that second assumption holds up.  TCU, in particular, has only played one game near their average (last week, against Tech), and has instead shown more of a binomial distribution with five games grouped closely around 5 and five games grouped around 25.
       

       
      TCU's is not a distribution that looks particularly bell-curvy.  More bathtubby.  And Oklahoma's distribution doesn't exactly look like a bell curve either.  But let's take our lack of data points excuse and use it to ignore our lack of bell-curviness.  We'll assume that the non-normal distribution of the data is because we just don't have enough data points and that as the Frogs continued to play more hypothetical games, they'd get more "average" performances and start making their bathtub look more like a bell.  There is no reason to expect that teams would not have a normal distribution given enough data.
       
      So if you do the calculation, TCU's mean performance is currently at 15.3 with a standard deviation of 10.6.  Statistically, that means that there is a roughly 63% probability that TCU's DUSHEE Score in any one game will be between 4.7 and 25.9 (15.3 +/- 10.6).
       
      Oklahoma's mean performance is currently 25.4 with a standard deviation of 15.5, meaning that we should expect 63% of Oklahoma's games to be between 9.9 and 40.9.
       
      So, while Oklahoma has been better, on average, than the Frogs, they've also been more inconsistent.
       
      Revisiting the French Riviera
       
      So we can use these numbers to run what you often hear called "simulated" games.  There are any number of ways you can go about "simulating" a game.  You could play a bunch of games on your Xbox and assume the programmers have accurately accounted for each player's ability and matchups with opposing players and coaching and play-calling and all those other intangibles that make up the outcome of a game.  You could go far deeper into the analytics than I do with DUSHEE and have a far more complex multi-variate determination of outcome.
       
      Perhaps the most simple way to "simulate" many games against two teams is to assume that the two teams' performances over many games will follow a normal distribution based on the limited set of data we talked about above.  So if we assume that the average and range of performance the teams have demonstrated so far is typical (and it might not be ... for instance the fact that Oklahoma has proven to be less consistent over 12 games than the Frogs have might be over-estimated given the limited data), then we can begin to predict how the teams would perform against each other over many, many games.
       
      So if we take TCU's and Oklahoma's mean and standard deviations that we calculated above and use them to determine how the teams will perform over a 10,000 game season, the distribution in the figure above begins to look like this:
       

       
      Now there are some bell curves.
       
      Facing Baker Mayfield 10,000 Times
       
      So we've made a lot of assumptions at this point.  Many of them questionably asserted, but not totally unreasonable.
       
      Now we bring randomness into play (which is where the "Monte Carlo" comes in to it).  Using a random number generator, you weigh the result of the random number within the bounds of the performance bell curve for each team (this is done using the "NORMINV" function in Excel, for anyone playing along at home).  Thus, outcomes near the mean of the bell curve are more likely than outcomes far from the mean.  A random number (between 0 and 1) is generated for TCU and another random number is generated for Oklahoma; if the random number is near 0.5, the team performs at its mean.  As the random number approaches 0, the team's performance moves out in to the left tail of the bell curve; approaching 1, the team is in the right tail.
       
      So to simulate TCU and Oklahoma facing off 10,000 times (DUSHEE predicts the probability that Mayfield would make an obscene gesture toward the TCU sideline after taking out a Arlington police officer with a warmup pass at 3%), you generate 10,000 random numbers for TCU and 10,000 for Oklahoma and you pair them up.  If the random number for Oklahoma lands at a location on its bell curve further to the right than TCU's, Oklahoma wins.  You can see from the bell curves above that Oklahoma has much more real estate in the 30 to 80 range than TCU does ... so when Oklahoma lands in this range, they are very likely to win.
       
      If you play this simulation out, on a neutral field (i.e., not giving any advantage to the home team), Oklahoma wins somewhere between 70-72% of the time.  The distribution of outcomes looks like this:
       

       
      So, when you begin to look at these games in a probabilistic manner, you can convince yourself pretty easily that the H2H argument as the be all, end all is a very incomplete picture.  No one thinks Syracuse is a better team than Clemson.  Yet, on October 13, Syracuse beat Clemson 27-24 in the Carrier Dome.  If you run the same simulation I just showed for TCU-Oklahoma and give Syracuse the DUSHEE-calculated 3.4 points for home field advantage, Clemson beats Syracuse 87% of the time by an average margin of 23 points.  But 13% of the time, Syracuse wins, just a little worse than the odds of rolling a six on a cubic die.
       
      Closing Asides and Thoughts
       
      As stated above, on average, home field is giving a 3.4 point advantage to the home team.  When a team's DUSHEE score is boosted by that amount, it improves the team's chances of winning by about 3-5%.
       
      And if you are skeptical about whether Oklahoma's inconsistency relative to TCU's is real (as I am), if you give Oklahoma the same standard deviation as TCU's, Oklahoma's chances of winning go up to 75%.  By tightening Oklahoma's bell curve, Oklahoma becomes less likely to blow TCU out, but since that right tail portion of Oklahoma's bell curve is beyond TCU's right tail bell curve, Oklahoma was going to win those games anyway.  Conversely, it also becomes less likely that Oklahoma will play a stinker (left tail of the bell curve) where TCU actually has a chance to win.  So we kinda need to hope that Oklahoma's relative inconsistency (compared to the Frogs) over 12 games is real.
       
      So take it easy on Nate Silver and his ilk over "missing" on the 2016 election.  Their predictions are only as good as the data they have and Quinnipiac polls (as measures of how people are going to vote) are probably worse data sources than college football games.  The uncertainty in those polls is why they were still giving Trump a 20-40% chance to win.  Basically the odds of flipping two coins and getting two heads.  About the odds we have against Oklahoma.
       
      So you're telling me there's a chance ...
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      No discussion this week.  Working on a longer blog post that I'll get out later in the week.  Then I'll put together a bowl preview after this week.
       
      TCU Week-to-Week
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech  Bay   10.00 23.20 31.82   9.00 25.90 15.40 1.20 26.73 1.73 24.90 11.70   1.20 154.60 158.91   -96.30 110.70 342.80 80.70 135.36 103.45 -26.60 -9.60   6.73 23.06 29.01   1.27 22.70 27.09 4.76 24.46 6.23 15.29 7.33  
      TCU's Next Opponent (OU) Week-to-Week
       UTEP @ OhSt  Tulane @ Bay    ISU # Tex @ KSU  Ttech @ OkSt  TCU @ Kan  WVU 26.18 42.45 41.30 -4.80   1.20 13.64 11.60 22.70 28.55 36.10 9.90 32.10 317.73 414.45 300.90 57.50   93.90 150.64 141.50 206.60 330.18 201.20 156.90 300.80 33.05 48.65 42.30 -0.38   5.41 16.49 14.68 25.28 35.24 33.94 14.30 36.17  
      Conference Rankings
      B10 6.02 SEC 5.52 ACC 5.38 B12 5.06 P12 3.63 AAC -0.42 MWC -5.70 MAC -7.31 CUSA -7.58 SBC -8.15  
      Top 3 Performances
      39.46 Auburn vs. Alabama (+12 Point Margin, +31 Yardage Margin)
      39.36 Georgia at Georgia Tech (+31 PM, +245 YM)
      38.44 Penn St. at Maryland (+63 PM, +231 YM)
       
      Bottom 3 Performances
      -56.13 Oregon St. at Oregon (-59 PM, -366 YM)
      -45.07 Texas St. at Troy (-53 PM, -341 YM)
      -41.17 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (-18 PM, -291 YM)
       
      Overall Rankings
      Rank Team P/G Y/G Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 0 -1.23 2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 1 0.86 3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 -1 -1.73 4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 0 0.66 5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 0 0.54 6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 0 0.99 7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 0 0.78 8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 0 0.36 9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 1 0.27 10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 1 -0.31 11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 -2 -1.45 12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 1 1.47 13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 -1 -1.93 14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 0 -1.33 15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 0 -1.33 16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 5 1.58 17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 3 0.27 18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 5 2.10 19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 8 2.21 20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 6 2.04 21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 -4 -1.59 22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 -4 -1.25 23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 1 1.43 24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 1 1.32 25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 -6 -0.96 26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 -4 -0.16 27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 -11 -3.97 28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 6 2.00 29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 1 0.25 30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 2 0.76 31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 4 1.16 32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 -3 -0.41 33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 -5 -0.76 34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 8 2.54 35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 2 -0.64 36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 -3 -1.64 37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 15 3.79 38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 -7 -2.47 39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 -3 -1.39 40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 5 1.97 41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 2 1.53 42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 -3 -0.87 43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 5 1.79 44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 5 1.10 45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 -5 -1.79 46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 -2 -0.41 47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 -6 -0.92 48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 -2 -0.44 49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 1 0.35 50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 -12 -3.95 51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 2 0.63 52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 2 0.96 53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 -6 -0.92 54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 -3 -0.23 55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 3 1.36 56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 0 0.43 57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 7 1.72 58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 1 0.88 59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 -4 -0.09 60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 1 0.34 61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 8 1.92 62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 3 0.45 63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 -6 -1.59 64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 -4 -0.69 65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 -2 -0.83 66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 1 0.31 67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 12 2.44 68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 3 0.12 69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 -7 -2.03 70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 3 0.42 71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 -1 -0.69 72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 3 0.16 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 13 2.56 74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 6 1.44 75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 -3 -0.76 76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 -8 -1.48 77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 10 2.24 78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 -1 0.30 79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 -5 -1.06 80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 -14 -2.91 81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 -5 -1.15 82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 6 0.41 83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 2 0.18 84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 0 -0.18 85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 11 2.99 86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 -3 -0.70 87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 3 0.48 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 -6 -1.22 89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 -11 -2.34 90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 4 1.86 91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 -2 -1.01 92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 -11 -2.34 93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 7 2.29 94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 -1 -0.14 95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 0 0.40 96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 -4 -0.44 97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 7 1.85 98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 -1 -0.62 99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 -1 -0.51 100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 -1 -0.52 101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 -10 -2.86 102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 5 1.58 103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 5 1.58 104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 -1 -0.28 105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 -3 -0.66 106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 4 2.02 107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 -1 0.09 108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 -3 -1.91 109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 2 0.31 110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 -1 -0.63 111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 1 0.36 112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70 -11 -3.76 113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 10 3.39 114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 2 1.06 115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 -2 -1.62 116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 6 0.88 117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 4 0.05 118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 -3 -1.61 119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 -5 -2.53 120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 -3 -1.22 121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 -3 -1.53 122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 -2 -2.65 123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 -4 -4.27 124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 0 1.09 125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 2 0.97 126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 0 0.56 127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 -2 -0.88 128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 0 1.62 129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 0 1.09 130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 0 3.47  
      By Conference
      AAC
      9 UCF  22.83 116.17 20.92 16 Memphis  15.43 50.78 12.78 18 South Florida  9.34 116.17 11.93 42 Navy  5.06 41.88 5.43 54 SMU  4.64 -8.79 2.66 57 Houston  2.46 3.30 1.81 68 Temple  -2.96 10.52 -1.46 82 Tulane  -2.72 -54.49 -4.49 100 Tulsa  -6.91 -94.88 -9.26 108 Cincinnati  -12.95 -70.80 -12.11 116 Connecticut  -15.90 -112.88 -16.14 118 East Carolina  -18.77 -93.86 -17.12 ACC
      8 Clemson  21.79 190.21 23.86 15 Virginia Tech  13.83 100.64 14.16 23 Louisville  7.38 128.04 11.20 27 Miami (FL)  14.04 23.15 10.49 33 N.C. State  6.59 85.26 8.58 36 Wake Forest  8.23 26.84 6.80 38 Georgia Tech  3.11 89.37 6.46 41 Boston Coll.  7.56 22.41 6.14 58 Duke  1.46 14.31 1.68 59 Florida St.  1.77 8.66 1.61 67 Pittsburgh  -1.14 -6.25 -1.06 72 Virginia  -3.46 3.26 -2.15 76 Syracuse  -4.71 12.28 -2.54 105 North Carolina  -8.98 -81.49 -9.99 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  26.53 262.66 30.58 6 Penn St.  27.91 136.18 25.29 7 Wisconsin  23.96 184.19 25.01 17 Michigan  9.90 113.39 12.16 19 Iowa  15.94 23.44 11.78 29 Michigan St.  6.87 99.14 9.45 31 Northwestern  10.79 37.28 9.02 35 Purdue  7.74 33.98 6.83 48 Indiana  1.16 53.11 3.38 79 Minnesota  -1.83 -41.78 -3.27 80 Nebraska  -3.76 -18.54 -3.42 101 Maryland  -9.53 -62.44 -9.42 115 Illinois  -14.84 -119.69 -15.77 119 Rutgers  -14.68 -153.66 -17.33 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  21.74 222.69 25.43 10 Oklahoma St.  16.70 178.80 19.91 14 TCU  16.51 86.84 15.27 32 Iowa St.  11.11 30.32 8.89 39 Texas  6.48 42.03 6.39 45 West Virginia  3.41 38.40 4.16 51 Texas Tech  2.06 32.67 2.97 70 Kansas St.  3.22 -78.48 -1.70 94 Baylor  -9.08 -20.97 -7.08 127 Kansas  -24.95 -143.17 -23.66 CUSA
      26 Florida Atlantic  12.88 48.61 10.98 52 Marshall  2.76 19.18 2.78 62 Southern Miss  -2.74 39.85 0.13 63 UT-San Antonio -2.96 36.01 -0.21 66 North Texas  -1.47 4.60 -0.75 73 Louisiana Tech  -2.77 -8.88 -2.29 85 Middle Tenn. St.  -6.35 -11.72 -4.81 93 Florida Intl.  -5.30 -63.37 -6.64 95 UAB -6.44 -60.33 -7.26 104 West. Kentucky  -11.77 -42.28 -9.92 120 Old Dominion -16.88 -124.48 -17.37 124 Rice  -22.64 -119.90 -20.98 126 UNC-Charlotte -21.01 -181.73 -22.93 129 UTEP  -25.78 -196.02 -26.81 Indies
      11 Notre Dame  19.63 125.28 19.24 56 Army  1.95 13.46 1.96 87 Massachusetts -8.11 -0.54 -5.43 102 BYU  -10.19 -61.81 -9.83 MAC
      28 Toledo  10.19 67.93 10.13 47 Northern Illinois  4.50 18.00 3.89 49 Ohio  4.60 4.27 3.27 69 East. Michigan  -1.02 -18.37 -1.58 71 W. Michigan  -0.45 -36.09 -2.07 74 Buffalo  -1.59 -29.37 -2.50 77 Cent. Michigan  -2.22 -23.32 -2.63 86 Miami (OH)  -6.30 -21.10 -5.24 107 Akron  -6.23 -145.59 -11.30 113 Bowling Green  -13.03 -120.76 -14.61 125 Kent St.  -23.77 -142.58 -22.85 128 Ball St.  -28.16 -123.04 -24.81 MWC
      25 Boise St.  11.24 71.77 11.02 30 San Diego St.  8.42 73.39 9.22 43 Fresno St.  5.23 34.93 5.20 64 Colorado St.  -1.30 13.44 -0.21 83 Utah St.  -2.25 -63.63 -4.62 84 Air Force  -5.49 -22.21 -4.75 92 Wyoming  -2.30 -103.05 -6.59 97 Nevada  -6.35 -75.58 -7.94 99 UNLV  -7.91 -71.69 -8.79 110 New Mexico  -14.09 -63.38 -12.51 117 Hawaii  -18.44 -93.71 -16.89 130 San Jose St.  -30.61 -227.45 -31.57 P12
      12 Washington  19.33 108.65 18.22 21 Washington St.  7.97 129.38 11.67 22 USC  11.01 87.41 11.63 24 Stanford  14.36 30.09 11.05 34 Oregon  5.37 76.15 7.32 40 Utah  5.54 53.08 6.30 53 Arizona  2.75 18.15 2.72 55 Arizona St.  3.53 4.70 2.58 60 UCLA  1.50 -3.91 0.81 75 California  -1.31 -33.37 -2.51 89 Colorado  -4.17 -57.95 -5.62 123 Oregon St.  -21.80 -123.55 -20.60 SBC
      37 Troy  6.66 45.11 6.65 44 Arkansas St.  4.37 28.23 4.30 61 Appalachian State 0.61 6.28 0.71 90 New Mexico St.  -8.79 1.34 -5.79 96 LA Monroe  -5.92 -67.73 -7.27 98 Georgia State -9.35 -47.25 -8.55 106 Georgia Southern -10.70 -70.44 -10.59 109 Idaho  -12.18 -87.06 -12.39 111 Coastal Carolina -12.58 -85.98 -12.61 114 South Alabama -13.68 -117.19 -14.87 121 LA Lafayette  -16.77 -133.44 -17.73 122 Texas St. -20.52 -120.47 -19.60 SEC
      2 Auburn  28.42 214.05 29.45 3 Alabama  27.79 221.52 29.40 4 Georgia  25.28 183.19 25.84 13 Mississippi St.  13.59 126.50 15.27 20 LSU  9.26 114.11 11.77 46 Missouri  3.98 28.90 4.07 50 Texas A&M  3.39 16.42 3.07 65 South Carolina  2.23 -44.56 -0.70 78 Mississippi  -3.06 -13.92 -2.72 81 Florida  -4.27 -19.20 -3.79 88 Kentucky  -2.61 -76.35 -5.49 91 Arkansas  -6.08 -44.73 -6.25 103 Vanderbilt  -9.41 -73.39 -9.88 112 Tennessee  -10.51 -115.99 -12.70  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 1
      DUSHEE still loves the Ojai-uh Bucks and has now moved three SEC teams into slots 2-4.  A playoff final 4 that would be enough to make college football fans in every other part of the country outside the southeast and Ohio vomit.
       
      The Frogs slid yet another spot to 14th.  The Frogs slow trickle down through the standings seems to be due to a general drop in the performance of the Big XII-II as a whole as the conference dropped from the 2nd spot to the 4th spot, passed by both the ACC and SEC this week.  DUSHEE has rewarded those conferences for blowing out their patsies this week (although again, remember that Mercer and the Citadel are ignored in the ranking).
       
      It was a big week for the non-Power 5 schools (what is the euphemism ESPN has come up with for them?) as Boise (19), Memphis (21), and Florida Atlantic (22) all found their way into the top 25.  All three of those schools are out of the top 25 in the DUSHEE Extra Crispy rankings (29, 30, and 38, respectively) which punish poor schedule strength more (86th, 78th, and 85th, respectively).  The Frogs, BTW, are 12th in the Extra Crispy poll (28th SOS). 
       
      Frogs Week-to-Week
       
      It was a middlin' performance for the Frogs; the point differential among the Frogs' better numbers of the year, but for the second time this season, TCU went negative in yardage differential (WVU the other instance). In general, the Frogs have not done well in yardage differential; on average, teams have a yardage differential to point differential ratio of 6.7 yards for every point.  The Frogs have only exceeded that average three times: Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  The Frogs average YD:PD ratio is 4.4.  What this means varies depending on interpretation -- either the Frogs have been very efficient or the Frogs have been a little lucky.  The scores should have been closer in a lot of the Frogs' games than they were based on how well the offense moved the ball relative to how well the defense kept the opposing offense from moving the ball. 
       
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU @ Ttech   9.11 23.22 29.60   12.33 26.44 16.89 2.22 28.10 0.90 24.56   18.67 155.22 136.10   -66.89 115.89 373.89 71.11 142.00 98.80 -27.22   7.00 23.16 26.47   4.91 23.36 29.76 5.00 25.76 5.49 15.02  
      Frogs Next Opponent Week-to-Week: Rapey Bears
       
      Despite their record, Baylor has only been truly awful three times this season: Duke, Oklahoma State, and Texas.  But they've only played like an above average team once, against Oklahoma.  In fact they played Oklahoma better than the Frogs did.  In the Bears other six games, they have been squarely average.
       
      The worst TCU performance this year would have beaten any individual Baylor performance other than Oklahoma.  Using DUSHEE, and running 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations, TCU beats Baylor 94% of the time and has the Frogs as a 27 point favorite.  This game should be no problem.  Hopefully I do not regret those words on Friday.
       
         UTSA @ Duke  OU @ KSU   @ OkSt  WVU  Tex @ Kan # Ttech  ISU   -1.38 -15.67 11.90 -10.22   -32.00 2.33 -24.70 1.33 -17.67 -1.11   -13.50 -132.89 102.10 -48.56   -223.60 50.89 -141.80 21.67 215.00 -56.67   -1.58 -17.02 12.99 -9.22   -32.40 4.07 -23.48 1.96 -1.14 -3.55  
      Conference Rankings
       
      B10 6.57 SEC 6.28 ACC 5.78 B12 5.52 P12 3.81 AAC -0.58 MWC -5.94 MAC -7.84 CUSA -8.25 SBC -8.74  
      Top 3 Performances
       
      49.71 - Louisville vs. Syracuse (46 Point Margin, 392 Yardage Margin)
      44.93 - Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama (52 PM, 388 YM)
      39.22 - Northwestern vs. Minnesota (39 PM, 181 YM)
       
      Bottom 3 Performances
       
      -77.15 - South Alabama at Georgia Southern (-52 PM, -388 YM)
      -52.10 - Cincinnati at East Carolina (-28 PM, -252 YM)
      -46.13 - Rutgers at Indiana (-41 PM, -313 YM)
       
      Overall Rankings
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  27.50 272.25 31.81 0 0.33 2 Alabama  29.33 233.84 31.13 0 0.07 3 Auburn  27.24 210.87 28.60 0 1.13 4 Georgia  25.47 165.84 25.19 2 0.88 5 Oklahoma  21.15 217.93 24.88 -1 -0.84 6 Penn St.  26.15 138.81 24.31 -1 -1.07 7 Wisconsin  23.73 169.84 24.23 2 1.39 8 Clemson  21.26 188.43 23.50 -1 -0.46 9 Notre Dame  21.55 127.79 20.69 1 -1.33 10 UCF  21.98 121.05 20.65 1 -1.25 11 Oklahoma St.  17.54 172.23 20.22 -3 -2.75 12 Mississippi St.  16.16 129.77 17.20 0 -1.83 13 Washington  17.60 101.28 16.75 1 -0.67 14 TCU  17.34 101.76 16.59 -1 -0.94 15 Virginia Tech  15.84 99.77 15.49 0 -1.44 16 Miami (FL)  17.98 50.12 14.47 0 -2.28 17 Washington St.  9.67 137.48 13.25 2 -0.28 18 USC  12.33 94.10 12.88 -1 -2.11 19 Boise St.  12.51 73.54 11.98 7 1.49 20 Michigan  9.72 109.40 11.89 0 -0.29 21 Memphis  13.07 50.14 11.20 7 1.22 22 Florida Atlantic  13.94 37.12 11.13 10 2.12 23 South Florida  7.91 92.06 9.83 -2 -1.83 24 Louisville  5.22 127.23 9.77 18 4.70 25 Stanford  12.22 32.10 9.73 2 -0.55 26 LSU  7.57 94.71 9.73 -3 -1.23 27 Iowa  14.03 4.20 9.56 -5 -1.80 28 N.C. State  7.29 90.66 9.35 1 -0.34 29 Iowa St.  11.74 29.74 9.30 -5 -1.62 30 Michigan St.  6.65 96.21 9.20 -5 -1.62 31 Georgia Tech  5.03 112.86 8.94 -13 -4.63 32 San Diego St.  7.72 66.81 8.45 -1 -0.59 33 Wake Forest  9.82 38.32 8.45 -3 -1.01 34 Toledo  8.29 52.77 8.14 2 0.92 35 Northwestern  9.67 28.70 7.87 9 2.93 36 Texas  8.08 48.23 7.77 2 1.30 37 Purdue  8.35 38.35 7.47 -4 -0.48 38 Texas A&M  6.59 53.11 7.02 -1 0.51 39 Navy  5.64 51.25 6.30 0 0.03 40 West Virginia  5.28 49.15 5.95 -6 -1.64 41 Northern Illinois  5.13 27.98 4.80 4 0.82 42 Oregon  2.58 61.80 4.78 12 3.16 43 Boston Coll.  6.32 7.92 4.61 -3 -0.89 44 Missouri  5.58 15.44 4.48 2 0.61 45 Utah  3.33 42.75 4.33 5 1.31 46 Indiana  1.75 53.65 3.82 14 3.10 47 Arizona  4.29 15.81 3.64 -12 -3.62 48 Fresno St.  3.17 26.18 3.41 0 -0.08 49 Arkansas St.  3.68 15.15 3.20 7 1.92 50 Ohio  4.85 -6.17 2.93 -9 -2.27 51 SMU  4.60 -3.42 2.89 -8 -2.14 52 Troy  2.90 18.73 2.86 1 1.06 53 Texas Tech  1.13 32.19 2.35 -4 -0.74 54 Marshall  2.05 9.21 1.82 -2 -0.39 55 Florida St.  1.04 20.12 1.69 0 0.24 56 Army  1.31 13.29 1.53 5 0.81 57 UT-San Antonio -1.76 51.75 1.39 6 1.64 58 Arizona St.  1.50 4.64 1.23 -7 -1.10 59 Duke  0.52 9.23 0.80 13 3.62 60 Colorado St.  -0.60 17.68 0.48 2 -0.08 61 UCLA  0.69 0.22 0.47 3 0.77 62 East. Michigan  0.39 3.79 0.45 -3 -0.52 63 South Carolina  3.07 -38.64 0.13 2 0.65 64 Houston  1.20 -14.29 0.09 -7 -1.15 65 Southern Miss  -3.89 45.74 -0.33 10 2.78 66 Nebraska  -1.17 5.43 -0.51 0 0.58 67 North Texas  -1.63 0.57 -1.06 2 1.07 68 Syracuse  -3.45 25.04 -1.06 -21 -4.73 69 Appalachian State -1.20 -8.11 -1.20 -2 0.64 70 W. Michigan  0.57 -35.65 -1.38 6 1.90 71 Temple  -3.68 17.65 -1.58 -1 1.02 72 California  -0.50 -28.64 -1.75 -4 0.36 73 Kansas St.  2.44 -75.71 -2.12 4 1.43 74 Minnesota  -0.93 -32.16 -2.21 -16 -3.31 75 Virginia  -4.21 10.11 -2.31 7 2.16 76 Florida  -2.16 -24.23 -2.64 17 3.74 77 Mississippi  -4.20 -4.58 -3.03 -4 -0.15 78 Colorado  -1.71 -43.34 -3.28 -4 -0.25 79 Pittsburgh  -3.88 -18.54 -3.51 2 0.74 80 Buffalo  -3.59 -31.26 -3.94 -1 0.09 81 Wyoming  0.64 -94.57 -4.25 6 1.09 82 Kentucky  -0.76 -76.11 -4.27 2 0.40 83 Miami (OH)  -6.57 -3.30 -4.54 2 0.26 84 Air Force  -6.09 -10.41 -4.57 -6 -0.87 85 Utah St.  -1.48 -77.21 -4.81 14 3.77 86 Louisiana Tech  -4.92 -31.59 -4.84 -3 -0.18 87 Cent. Michigan  -4.14 -42.49 -4.86 -16 -2.06 88 Tulane  -2.94 -59.30 -4.90 3 1.22 89 Arkansas  -6.29 -21.20 -5.24 0 0.67 90 Massachusetts -8.58 -3.70 -5.91 -2 -0.22 91 Maryland  -5.96 -52.35 -6.56 1 -0.30 92 LA Monroe  -6.04 -56.77 -6.84 5 0.61 93 Baylor  -8.72 -22.74 -6.94 2 0.19 94 New Mexico St.  -10.31 -15.79 -7.65 2 -0.49 95 UAB -7.08 -59.36 -7.66 -9 -2.62 96 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.02 -35.96 -7.79 -6 -1.83 97 Georgia State -9.06 -38.09 -7.93 1 -0.20 98 UNLV  -7.95 -60.23 -8.28 2 0.68 99 Tulsa  -5.66 -100.29 -8.74 9 3.11 100 Florida Intl.  -8.35 -67.96 -8.93 -6 -2.43 101 Tennessee  -7.23 -83.28 -8.94 2 0.75 102 North Carolina  -8.17 -78.33 -9.32 -1 0.29 103 West. Kentucky  -10.46 -53.91 -9.64 4 2.02 104 Nevada  -8.07 -89.22 -9.79 1 1.21 105 Cincinnati  -11.87 -45.99 -10.19 -25 -6.07 106 Akron  -6.18 -146.86 -11.39 8 3.19 107 BYU  -10.80 -84.97 -11.41 6 2.89 108 Vanderbilt  -10.11 -95.36 -11.46 -2 -0.23 109 New Mexico  -13.61 -56.55 -11.87 1 0.93 110 Georgia Southern -12.62 -84.90 -12.61 13 8.07 111 Idaho  -12.81 -84.19 -12.71 -2 -0.45 112 Coastal Carolina -13.11 -85.40 -12.97 0 0.24 113 Illinois  -12.83 -113.10 -14.15 -2 -1.02 114 Rutgers  -12.08 -136.50 -14.81 -10 -4.11 115 East Carolina  -16.24 -94.67 -15.51 6 3.37 116 South Alabama -14.82 -122.37 -15.94 -14 -6.25 117 Old Dominion -15.65 -115.42 -16.15 0 -0.64 118 LA Lafayette  -15.41 -119.77 -16.20 4 3.40 119 Oregon St.  -17.27 -97.24 -16.33 -3 -0.89 120 Texas St. -17.71 -103.73 -16.94 -2 0.19 121 Hawaii  -19.02 -86.17 -16.94 -6 -1.87 122 Connecticut  -15.95 -129.13 -17.02 -3 0.39 123 Bowling Green  -15.78 -151.23 -18.00 -3 0.41 124 Rice  -23.87 -124.49 -22.07 1 0.70 125 Kansas  -24.40 -131.62 -22.78 1 0.13 126 UNC-Charlotte -22.64 -169.54 -23.48 -2 -2.79 127 Kent St.  -24.61 -149.76 -23.82 0 1.84 128 Ball St.  -28.51 -150.13 -26.43 0 0.49 129 UTEP  -26.70 -204.12 -27.90 0 0.78 130 San Jose St.  -34.44 -244.13 -35.04 0 1.08  
      By Conference
       
      AAC
      10 UCF  21.98 121.05 20.65 21 Memphis  13.07 50.14 11.20 23 South Florida  7.91 92.06 9.83 39 Navy  5.64 51.25 6.30 51 SMU  4.60 -3.42 2.89 64 Houston  1.20 -14.29 0.09 71 Temple  -3.68 17.65 -1.58 88 Tulane  -2.94 -59.30 -4.90 99 Tulsa  -5.66 -100.29 -8.74 105 Cincinnati  -11.87 -45.99 -10.19 115 East Carolina  -16.24 -94.67 -15.51 122 Connecticut  -15.95 -129.13 -17.02 ACC
      8 Clemson  21.26 188.43 23.50 15 Virginia Tech  15.84 99.77 15.49 16 Miami (FL)  17.98 50.12 14.47 24 Louisville  5.22 127.23 9.77 28 N.C. State  7.29 90.66 9.35 31 Georgia Tech  5.03 112.86 8.94 33 Wake Forest  9.82 38.32 8.45 43 Boston Coll.  6.32 7.92 4.61 55 Florida St.  1.04 20.12 1.69 59 Duke  0.52 9.23 0.80 68 Syracuse  -3.45 25.04 -1.06 75 Virginia  -4.21 10.11 -2.31 79 Pittsburgh  -3.88 -18.54 -3.51 102 North Carolina  -8.17 -78.33 -9.32 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  27.50 272.25 31.81 6 Penn St.  26.15 138.81 24.31 7 Wisconsin  23.73 169.84 24.23 20 Michigan  9.72 109.40 11.89 27 Iowa  14.03 4.20 9.56 30 Michigan St.  6.65 96.21 9.20 35 Northwestern  9.67 28.70 7.87 37 Purdue  8.35 38.35 7.47 46 Indiana  1.75 53.65 3.82 66 Nebraska  -1.17 5.43 -0.51 74 Minnesota  -0.93 -32.16 -2.21 91 Maryland  -5.96 -52.35 -6.56 113 Illinois  -12.83 -113.10 -14.15 114 Rutgers  -12.08 -136.50 -14.81 BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  21.15 217.93 24.88 11 Oklahoma St.  17.54 172.23 20.22 14 TCU  17.34 101.76 16.59 29 Iowa St.  11.74 29.74 9.30 36 Texas  8.08 48.23 7.77 40 West Virginia  5.28 49.15 5.95 53 Texas Tech  1.13 32.19 2.35 73 Kansas St.  2.44 -75.71 -2.12 93 Baylor  -8.72 -22.74 -6.94 125 Kansas  -24.40 -131.62 -22.78 CUSA
       
       

       
       
      22 Florida Atlantic  13.94 37.12 11.13 54 Marshall  2.05 9.21 1.82 57 UT-San Antonio -1.76 51.75 1.39 65 Southern Miss  -3.89 45.74 -0.33 67 North Texas  -1.63 0.57 -1.06 86 Louisiana Tech  -4.92 -31.59 -4.84 95 UAB -7.08 -59.36 -7.66 96 Middle Tenn. St.  -9.02 -35.96 -7.79 100 Florida Intl.  -8.35 -67.96 -8.93 103 West. Kentucky  -10.46 -53.91 -9.64 117 Old Dominion -15.65 -115.42 -16.15 124 Rice  -23.87 -124.49 -22.07 126 UNC-Charlotte -22.64 -169.54 -23.48 129 UTEP  -26.70 -204.12 -27.90 Indies
      9 Notre Dame  21.55 127.79 20.69 56 Army  1.31 13.29 1.53 90 Massachusetts -8.58 -3.70 -5.91 107 BYU  -10.80 -84.97 -11.41 MAC
      34 Toledo  8.29 52.77 8.14 41 Northern Illinois  5.13 27.98 4.80 50 Ohio  4.85 -6.17 2.93 62 East. Michigan  0.39 3.79 0.45 70 W. Michigan  0.57 -35.65 -1.38 80 Buffalo  -3.59 -31.26 -3.94 83 Miami (OH)  -6.57 -3.30 -4.54 87 Cent. Michigan  -4.14 -42.49 -4.86 106 Akron  -6.18 -146.86 -11.39 123 Bowling Green  -15.78 -151.23 -18.00 127 Kent St.  -24.61 -149.76 -23.82 128 Ball St.  -28.51 -150.13 -26.43 MWC
      19 Boise St.  12.51 73.54 11.98 32 San Diego St.  7.72 66.81 8.45 48 Fresno St.  3.17 26.18 3.41 60 Colorado St.  -0.60 17.68 0.48 81 Wyoming  0.64 -94.57 -4.25 84 Air Force  -6.09 -10.41 -4.57 85 Utah St.  -1.48 -77.21 -4.81 98 UNLV  -7.95 -60.23 -8.28 104 Nevada  -8.07 -89.22 -9.79 109 New Mexico  -13.61 -56.55 -11.87 121 Hawaii  -19.02 -86.17 -16.94 130 San Jose St.  -34.44 -244.13 -35.04 P12
      13 Washington  17.60 101.28 16.75 17 Washington St.  9.67 137.48 13.25 18 USC  12.33 94.10 12.88 25 Stanford  12.22 32.10 9.73 42 Oregon  2.58 61.80 4.78 45 Utah  3.33 42.75 4.33 47 Arizona  4.29 15.81 3.64 58 Arizona St.  1.50 4.64 1.23 61 UCLA  0.69 0.22 0.47 72 California  -0.50 -28.64 -1.75 78 Colorado  -1.71 -43.34 -3.28 119 Oregon St.  -17.27 -97.24 -16.33 SBC
      49 Arkansas St.  3.68 15.15 3.20 52 Troy  2.90 18.73 2.86 69 Appalachian State -1.20 -8.11 -1.20 92 LA Monroe  -6.04 -56.77 -6.84 94 New Mexico St.  -10.31 -15.79 -7.65 97 Georgia State -9.06 -38.09 -7.93 110 Georgia Southern -12.62 -84.90 -12.61 111 Idaho  -12.81 -84.19 -12.71 112 Coastal Carolina -13.11 -85.40 -12.97 116 South Alabama -14.82 -122.37 -15.94 118 LA Lafayette  -15.41 -119.77 -16.20 120 Texas St. -17.71 -103.73 -16.94 SEC
      2 Alabama  29.33 233.84 31.13 3 Auburn  27.24 210.87 28.60 4 Georgia  25.47 165.84 25.19 12 Mississippi St.  16.16 129.77 17.20 26 LSU  7.57 94.71 9.73 38 Texas A&M  6.59 53.11 7.02 44 Missouri  5.58 15.44 4.48 63 South Carolina  3.07 -38.64 0.13 76 Florida  -2.16 -24.23 -2.64 77 Mississippi  -4.20 -4.58 -3.03 82 Kentucky  -0.76 -76.11 -4.27 89 Arkansas  -6.29 -21.20 -5.24 101 Tennessee  -7.23 -83.28 -8.94 108 Vanderbilt  -10.11 -95.36 -11.46  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      DUSHEE just can't quit the Buckeyes.  Ohio State's blow out win over Michigan State vaulted them back into the top spot, 0.4 of a point ahead of Alabama.  Auburn leapt 7 spots to take 3rd and Oklahoma moved up 3 to take 4th.  This is a lot of movement at this time of year, an indication of the magnitude of the blowouts we saw this weekend.
       
      WTF DUSHEE?
       
      Speaking of movement, while they have moved up 10 spots in the last two weeks, DUSHEE still has undefeated Miami well down the rankings in 16th.  A look at Miami's week-to-week scores shows that while DUSHEE has been really impressed by the Canes the last two weeks, the first half of the season was a bit underwhelming.
       
             Tol @ Duke @ FSU  GaTech  Syr @ UNC  VaTech  ND  
       
            33.38 25.13 -3.25 7.43 5.75 -6.22 37.75 55.89       269.00 56.63 -123.13 -92.86 126.75 -122.22 265.13 232.56       35.45 19.53 -8.21 0.40 10.05 -10.15 38.18 48.67  
      The four game stretch from Florida State to North Carolina, Miami was very mediocre, despite going 4-0.  They beat a bad Seminoles team by 4, getting outgained by 69, then beat a decent Georgia Tech team by 1 while getting outgained by 216, beat an average Syracuse team by 8, then beat a pretty bad North Carolina team by 5 while also getting outgained. 
       
      It is this 4-game stretch that has Miami so far back in the rankings, despite how dominant they've looked the last two weeks.
       
      TCU Week-to-Week
       
      The Frogs only fell one spot to 13th.
       
        @ Ark  SMU @ OkSt    WVU @ KSU  Kan @ ISU  Tex @ OU   8.50 26.25 32.00   14.75 26.63 18.38 2.13 27.78 -1.22   25.13 178.50 145.00   -46.88 119.13 399.50 65.63 135.00 87.00   6.90 26.26 28.45   7.53 23.60 31.86 4.64 25.14 3.45  
      As we discussed last week, there seem to be two very discrete TCU teams this year, a slightly above average one and a really very good one.  We got the slightly above average team Saturday night.  Which, as we all know, made for a rough night.  And we've been the slightly above average team two of the last 3 weeks.
       
      TCU's Next Opponent Week-to-Week: Technological
       
      Fortunately, slightly above average is probably enough to beat our next opponent, Texas Tech.  Tech has been squarely average since Week 7.  The Matadors are coming off of a streak of mediocre performances, beating an awful Baylor team by two scores, but getting outgained by almost 200 yards in the process.
       
           ASU @ Hou  OkSt @ Kan @ WVU  ISU @ OU  KSU # Bay     5.56 10.29 9.78 21.75 -5.50 -10.25 -5.67 -3.75 2.88     105.78 129.14 -55.00 120.50 199.50 -64.88 8.11 51.63 -269.63     8.90 13.20 3.82 20.41 6.12 -10.02 -3.38 0.03 -11.32  
      Week 11 Top Performances
       
      53.68 Ohio State vs. Michigan State (+45 Point Margin, +329 Yardage Margin)
      53.57 Auburn vs. Georgia (+23 PM, +258 YM)
      48.67 Miami vs. Notre Dame (+33 PM, +113 YM)
       
      Week 11 Bottom Performances
       
      -52.00 San Jose State at Nevada (-45 PM, -139 YM)
      -49.07 New Mexico at Texas A&M (-41 PM, -418 YM)
      -40.87 Tennessee at Missouri (-33 PM, -374 YM)
       
      Conference Rankings
       
      B10 6.97 B12 6.07 ACC 6.06 SEC 5.85 P12 4.13 AAC -0.41 MWC -6.50 MAC -8.21 CUSA -8.27 SBC -9.47  
      Overall Rankings
       
      Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Ohio St.  27.76 264.33 31.48 1 1.44 2 Alabama  29.43 233.05 31.06 -1 -0.74 3 Auburn  25.86 208.37 27.46 7 4.65 4 Oklahoma  22.35 220.59 25.73 3 0.74 5 Penn St.  28.06 135.85 25.37 -1 -2.40 6 Georgia  24.77 158.77 24.31 -3 -4.70 7 Clemson  21.66 193.84 23.96 -1 -1.59 8 Oklahoma St.  20.25 193.03 22.97 1 -1.24 9 Wisconsin  22.49 159.92 22.84 2 1.68 10 Notre Dame  22.80 139.00 22.02 -5 -5.48 11 UCF  22.48 140.74 21.90 -3 -2.69 12 Mississippi St.  18.33 138.69 19.03 3 0.93 13 TCU  17.24 123.11 17.54 -1 -2.56 14 Washington  18.98 97.16 17.42 -1 -2.56 15 Virginia Tech  16.83 116.40 16.93 -1 -1.38 16 Miami (FL)  19.48 76.48 16.74 2 2.62 17 USC  13.82 117.56 14.98 -1 -1.16 18 Georgia Tech  9.36 149.25 13.57 6 2.31 19 Washington St.  9.96 140.35 13.53 1 0.17 20 Michigan  10.05 111.68 12.18 -1 -1.84 21 South Florida  9.22 112.21 11.65 5 0.60 22 Iowa  16.47 7.85 11.36 -1 -1.94 23 LSU  7.36 123.46 10.96 2 -0.27 24 Iowa St.  13.88 33.97 10.92 -1 -0.56 25 Michigan St.  8.23 108.56 10.81 -8 -3.76 26 Boise St.  11.21 61.49 10.49 1 0.47 27 Stanford  12.95 33.63 10.29 7 2.32 28 Memphis  12.47 33.93 9.98 1 0.24 29 N.C. State  8.27 85.01 9.68 -7 -1.92 30 Wake Forest  9.73 60.59 9.46 2 1.28 31 San Diego St.  7.45 83.06 9.04 0 0.39 32 Florida Atlantic  12.54 13.37 9.01 5 1.32 33 Purdue  8.19 50.63 7.94 2 0.06 34 West Virginia  6.61 64.96 7.59 -1 -0.40 35 Arizona  7.60 44.72 7.26 1 -0.59 36 Toledo  7.32 47.55 7.22 -6 -2.34 37 Texas A&M  6.00 51.33 6.52 11 3.41 38 Texas  6.84 39.10 6.48 -10 -3.46 39 Navy  5.74 49.81 6.27 5 1.27 40 Boston Coll.  6.27 26.88 5.50 -1 -0.94 41 Ohio  6.53 17.28 5.20 19 5.11 42 Louisville  0.88 91.50 5.08 7 2.27 43 SMU  6.57 13.47 5.04 -5 -1.62 44 Northwestern  6.44 13.15 4.94 -2 -0.21 45 Northern Illinois  3.77 29.90 3.98 2 0.81 46 Missouri  4.35 19.90 3.88 10 2.60 47 Syracuse  0.65 66.01 3.67 -7 -1.89 48 Fresno St.  2.55 36.43 3.49 -2 -0.41 49 Texas Tech  2.79 25.02 3.09 -8 -2.17 50 Utah  1.56 40.48 3.03 1 1.29 51 Arizona St.  2.69 10.98 2.33 -6 -2.00 52 Marshall  2.21 14.95 2.21 5 1.16 53 Troy  1.78 12.58 1.81 8 1.99 54 Oregon  -0.03 33.35 1.62 -4 -0.84 55 Florida St.  0.55 22.18 1.46 -1 -0.05 56 Arkansas St.  3.11 -16.15 1.28 -13 -3.79 57 Houston  2.78 -12.51 1.24 1 0.57 58 Minnesota  2.74 -14.91 1.10 5 1.77 59 East. Michigan  1.36 1.26 0.97 -7 -0.64 60 Indiana  -1.60 36.46 0.73 -5 -0.72 61 Army  1.44 -4.96 0.72 1 1.07 62 Colorado St.  -0.17 13.54 0.55 -3 -0.01 63 UT-San Antonio -3.49 42.22 -0.26 4 1.41 64 UCLA  0.73 -16.17 -0.30 0 0.49 65 South Carolina  2.63 -46.28 -0.52 0 0.90 66 Nebraska  -2.19 7.63 -1.08 -13 -2.61 67 Appalachian State -2.09 -9.28 -1.85 -1 -0.23 68 California  -1.30 -25.48 -2.11 1 0.17 69 North Texas  -3.20 0.02 -2.13 4 0.65 70 Temple  -3.76 -1.93 -2.60 -2 -0.52 71 Cent. Michigan  -3.42 -10.63 -2.80 10 1.88 72 Duke  -2.64 -21.70 -2.82 3 0.25 73 Mississippi  -3.92 -5.41 -2.88 16 3.09 74 Colorado  -1.57 -40.51 -3.04 0 -0.07 75 Southern Miss  -6.83 29.51 -3.10 -3 -0.37 76 W. Michigan  -0.96 -53.79 -3.28 -5 -0.84 77 Kansas St.  1.18 -88.45 -3.56 -1 -0.25 78 Air Force  -5.08 -6.45 -3.71 1 0.11 79 Buffalo  -2.18 -52.52 -4.03 14 2.43 80 Cincinnati  -6.54 4.80 -4.12 -3 -0.80 81 Pittsburgh  -4.37 -27.15 -4.24 -11 -1.83 82 Virginia  -5.93 -10.41 -4.46 -4 -1.10 83 Louisiana Tech  -5.09 -25.85 -4.66 0 0.57 84 Kentucky  -0.75 -84.94 -4.67 8 1.67 85 Miami (OH)  -7.22 0.11 -4.81 2 0.79 86 UAB -4.91 -35.86 -5.03 9 2.67 87 Wyoming  0.24 -112.08 -5.34 -7 -1.08 88 Massachusetts -8.20 -4.41 -5.68 0 0.20 89 Arkansas  -7.83 -13.99 -5.91 -3 -0.52 90 Middle Tenn. St.  -7.56 -18.62 -5.96 0 0.18 91 Tulane  -4.29 -66.24 -6.11 -9 -0.92 92 Maryland  -5.41 -54.24 -6.27 4 1.54 93 Florida  -5.90 -49.94 -6.38 -2 -0.06 94 Florida Intl.  -7.16 -35.26 -6.50 -10 -1.27 95 Baylor  -9.32 -18.63 -7.13 2 0.75 96 New Mexico St.  -10.34 -5.54 -7.16 -2 -0.28 97 LA Monroe  -6.75 -59.94 -7.44 2 0.53 98 Georgia State -8.97 -35.58 -7.72 4 1.00 99 Utah St.  -5.28 -102.96 -8.57 2 -0.09 100 UNLV  -8.20 -71.12 -8.96 -2 -1.00 101 North Carolina  -8.50 -80.35 -9.61 3 -0.12 102 South Alabama -8.58 -80.83 -9.68 8 3.43 103 Tennessee  -6.89 -103.76 -9.69 -18 -4.37 104 Rutgers  -7.71 -113.12 -10.69 2 0.19 105 Nevada  -8.49 -108.75 -11.00 3 1.09 106 Vanderbilt  -8.78 -109.52 -11.23 -3 -1.90 107 West. Kentucky  -11.84 -76.77 -11.66 4 2.22 108 Tulsa  -8.07 -131.69 -11.85 -3 -1.27 109 Idaho  -12.14 -84.85 -12.26 3 1.73 110 New Mexico  -15.12 -55.43 -12.80 -10 -4.41 111 Illinois  -12.26 -101.07 -13.13 -4 -1.39 112 Coastal Carolina -13.60 -84.36 -13.21 -3 -0.10 113 BYU  -13.74 -104.63 -14.30 2 2.02 114 Akron  -8.83 -177.10 -14.58 -1 -0.30 115 Hawaii  -17.00 -76.31 -15.08 1 1.76 116 Oregon St.  -16.38 -92.14 -15.44 -2 -0.74 117 Old Dominion -14.80 -114.97 -15.51 1 2.28 118 Texas St. -18.99 -91.26 -17.14 -1 0.55 119 Connecticut  -15.33 -146.65 -17.42 4 3.50 120 Bowling Green  -16.04 -157.35 -18.41 0 0.89 121 East Carolina  -19.18 -124.19 -18.88 0 0.44 122 LA Lafayette  -18.24 -151.65 -19.60 -3 -1.33 123 Georgia Southern -20.58 -141.88 -20.68 -1 0.07 124 UNC-Charlotte -19.72 -153.77 -20.69 0 0.97 125 Rice  -24.75 -127.90 -22.78 0 1.41 126 Kansas  -24.81 -129.78 -22.91 0 2.59 127 Kent St.  -25.60 -174.95 -25.65 1 2.27 128 Ball St.  -30.01 -141.02 -26.93 -1 -1.04 129 UTEP  -27.53 -210.47 -28.68 0 -0.51 130 San Jose St.  -35.86 -248.99 -36.13 0 -1.32  
      By Conference
       
      AAC
      11 UCF  22.48 140.74 21.90 21 South Florida  9.22 112.21 11.65 28 Memphis  12.47 33.93 9.98 39 Navy  5.74 49.81 6.27 43 SMU  6.57 13.47 5.04 57 Houston  2.78 -12.51 1.24 70 Temple  -3.76 -1.93 -2.60 80 Cincinnati  -6.54 4.80 -4.12 91 Tulane  -4.29 -66.24 -6.11 108 Tulsa  -8.07 -131.69 -11.85 119 Connecticut  -15.33 -146.65 -17.42 121 East Carolina  -19.18 -124.19 -18.88 ACC
      7 Clemson  21.66 193.84 23.96 15 Virginia Tech  16.83 116.40 16.93 16 Miami (FL)  19.48 76.48 16.74 18 Georgia Tech  9.36 149.25 13.57 29 N.C. State  8.27 85.01 9.68 30 Wake Forest  9.73 60.59 9.46 40 Boston Coll.  6.27 26.88 5.50 42 Louisville  0.88 91.50 5.08 47 Syracuse  0.65 66.01 3.67 55 Florida St.  0.55 22.18 1.46 72 Duke  -2.64 -21.70 -2.82 81 Pittsburgh  -4.37 -27.15 -4.24 82 Virginia  -5.93 -10.41 -4.46 101 North Carolina  -8.50 -80.35 -9.61 B1G
      1 Ohio St.  27.76 264.33 31.48 5 Penn St.  28.06 135.85 25.37 9 Wisconsin  22.49 159.92 22.84 20 Michigan  10.05 111.68 12.18 22 Iowa  16.47 7.85 11.36 25 Michigan St.  8.23 108.56 10.81 33 Purdue  8.19 50.63 7.94 44 Northwestern  6.44 13.15 4.94 58 Minnesota  2.74 -14.91 1.10 60 Indiana  -1.60 36.46 0.73 66 Nebraska  -2.19 7.63 -1.08 92 Maryland  -5.41 -54.24 -6.27 104 Rutgers  -7.71 -113.12 -10.69 111 Illinois  -12.26 -101.07 -13.13 BXII-II
      4 Oklahoma  22.35 220.59 25.73 8 Oklahoma St.  20.25 193.03 22.97 13 TCU  17.24 123.11 17.54 24 Iowa St.  13.88 33.97 10.92 34 West Virginia  6.61 64.96 7.59 38 Texas  6.84 39.10 6.48 49 Texas Tech  2.79 25.02 3.09 77 Kansas St.  1.18 -88.45 -3.56 95 Baylor  -9.32 -18.63 -7.13 126 Kansas  -24.81 -129.78 -22.91 CUSA
      32 Florida Atlantic  12.54 13.37 9.01 52 Marshall  2.21 14.95 2.21 63 UT-San Antonio -3.49 42.22 -0.26 69 North Texas  -3.20 0.02 -2.13 75 Southern Miss  -6.83 29.51 -3.10 83 Louisiana Tech  -5.09 -25.85 -4.66 86 UAB -4.91 -35.86 -5.03 90 Middle Tenn. St.  -7.56 -18.62 -5.96 94 Florida Intl.  -7.16 -35.26 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky  -11.84 -76.77 -11.66 117 Old Dominion -14.80 -114.97 -15.51 124 UNC-Charlotte -19.72 -153.77 -20.69 125 Rice  -24.75 -127.90 -22.78 129 UTEP  -27.53 -210.47 -28.68 Indies
      10 Notre Dame  22.80 139.00 22.02 61 Army  1.44 -4.96 0.72 88 Massachusetts -8.20 -4.41 -5.68 113 BYU  -13.74 -104.63 -14.30 MAC
      36 Toledo  7.32 47.55 7.22 41 Ohio  6.53 17.28 5.20 45 Northern Illinois  3.77 29.90 3.98 59 East. Michigan  1.36 1.26 0.97 71 Cent. Michigan  -3.42 -10.63 -2.80 76 W. Michigan  -0.96 -53.79 -3.28 79 Buffalo  -2.18 -52.52 -4.03 85 Miami (OH)  -7.22 0.11 -4.81 114 Akron  -8.83 -177.10 -14.58 120 Bowling Green  -16.04 -157.35 -18.41 127 Kent St.  -25.60 -174.95 -25.65 128 Ball St.  -30.01 -141.02 -26.93 MWC
      26 Boise St.  11.21 61.49 10.49 31 San Diego St.  7.45 83.06 9.04 48 Fresno St.  2.55 36.43 3.49 62 Colorado St.  -0.17 13.54 0.55 78 Air Force  -5.08 -6.45 -3.71 87 Wyoming  0.24 -112.08 -5.34 99 Utah St.  -5.28 -102.96 -8.57 100 UNLV  -8.20 -71.12 -8.96 105 Nevada  -8.49 -108.75 -11.00 110 New Mexico  -15.12 -55.43 -12.80 115 Hawaii  -17.00 -76.31 -15.08 130 San Jose St.  -35.86 -248.99 -36.13 P12
      14 Washington  18.98 97.16 17.42 17 USC  13.82 117.56 14.98 19 Washington St.  9.96 140.35 13.53 27 Stanford  12.95 33.63 10.29 35 Arizona  7.60 44.72 7.26 50 Utah  1.56 40.48 3.03 51 Arizona St.  2.69 10.98 2.33 54 Oregon  -0.03 33.35 1.62 64 UCLA  0.73 -16.17 -0.30 68 California  -1.30 -25.48 -2.11 74 Colorado  -1.57 -40.51 -3.04 116 Oregon St.  -16.38 -92.14 -15.44 SBC
      53 Troy  1.78 12.58 1.81 56 Arkansas St.  3.11 -16.15 1.28 67 Appalachian State -2.09 -9.28 -1.85 96 New Mexico St.  -10.34 -5.54 -7.16 97 LA Monroe  -6.75 -59.94 -7.44 98 Georgia State -8.97 -35.58 -7.72 102 South Alabama -8.58 -80.83 -9.68 109 Idaho  -12.14 -84.85 -12.26 112 Coastal Carolina -13.60 -84.36 -13.21 118 Texas St. -18.99 -91.26 -17.14 122 LA Lafayette  -18.24 -151.65 -19.60 123 Georgia Southern -20.58 -141.88 -20.68 SEC
      2 Alabama  29.43 233.05 31.06 3 Auburn  25.86 208.37 27.46 6 Georgia  24.77 158.77 24.31 12 Mississippi St.  18.33 138.69 19.03 23 LSU  7.36 123.46 10.96 37 Texas A&M  6.00 51.33 6.52 46 Missouri  4.35 19.90 3.88 65 South Carolina  2.63 -46.28 -0.52 73 Mississippi  -3.92 -5.41 -2.88 84 Kentucky  -0.75 -84.94 -4.67 89 Arkansas  -7.83 -13.99 -5.91 93 Florida  -5.90 -49.94 -6.38 103 Tennessee  -6.89 -103.76 -9.69 106 Vanderbilt  -8.78 -109.52 -11.23  
       
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    • Football Scoop reports that offensive analyst David Gru will become a receiver coach at SMU. Not surprising, as Sonny Dykes brought him to TCU. Good luck to him, except when they play the Frogs.
    • (The video probably has a few more interesting scenes of one particular individual than anything in the actual song.)  
    • TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) vs Texas Southern Tigers (0-11) 8:00pm Central Monday, December 18, 2017 Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena Fort Worth, Texas       B12 GameWatcher Live Sports Stats GameTracker (TCU) ESPN Box Score FoxSports.com Box Score     FrogVision ($) Pirate Radio Stream     FoxSportsGo.com ($)   FirstRow Stream Wiziwig Stream ZunoxHD Stream         TCU Men's Basketball Facebook TCU Men's Basketball Twitter
    •   Yep. This tax plan is great for the economy. The US had the highest corporate tax rate in the world. Which is why I always thought it was funny for people to say "they don't pay their fair share in taxes". For the record though, I do think 21% is a little too much of a cut.   Yes, it's projected to set us back 1.5 trillion in the current deficit. But like you said, government spending cuts will help alleviate some of that.
    •   Congress should submit a balanced budget.
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