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  • Blog Entries

    • By Friskyfrog in Poker? I Don't Even Know Her! 4
      As Benefield enters the WSOP final table on Monday, he has the least amount of chips in front of him. This is known as the “short stack” in poker lingo, and it is obviously a vulnerable place to be. Chips always equal power, and in tournament poker chips represent life itself. When you run out of chips, your game is over.
      Until then, though, you have “a chip and a chair.” This axiom, often said to players encouraging each other, points out that as long as you have a chip in front of you, you are alive and so can theoretically win it all. The saying traces back to the 1982 WSOP when the eventual winner Jack Straus pushed in all his chips and lost. As he got up to leave the table he discovered he had one chip under his napkin. Because he hadn’t said “all in,” the tournament directors allowed him to sit back down and he eventually won it all.
      When you are playing a tournament and find yourself as the short stack, your strategy should intentionally shift. First, do some math. When you are down to around ten big blinds, you should start looking for a place to make your move. Your move then should always be “all in,” and it is imperative that you don’t wait too long. Why? Because you still want to have enough chips to scare people out of the pot. If your final all-in is a small amount of money, you will have lots of callers. Lots of callers who want you out of the game. The more hands you are up against, the more likely you are to lose. Even if you have a monster pocket hand like aces, they are much less likely to hold up against several callers. It’s possible that you will feel disappointed if everyone folds and you thought you were going to win a bigger pot, but it is always “better to win a little than lose a lot” (in this case, all). Just stealing blinds is better than going up against several callers for your tournament life.
      Now you may be thinking, “but every person you survive makes your payout higher, so shouldn’t the short stack try to just hang on as long as possible, folding everything, so maybe a person or two goes out before them?” No. Poker players play to win, not to place one higher. Circling the drain for hours until you are forced in is wussy poker. Much better to take control of your own situation and force others to make decisions in response to your actions.
      So Benefield’s hope as the final table begins is that he gets a very strong hand fairly quickly, gets all his money in the pot against one caller, and then beats that caller. If this happens then his stack doubles and he is no longer the short stack. This would buy him some time then to settle in and be patient once again.
      One other note on tournament play…
      The object of tournament play is to get other players out. For this reason, it is customary that if one person is all-in then the rest of the players in the hand check it down rather than betting into a side pot. Why? You may think your hand is so great that you simply have to keep betting and this makes everyone else fold except the all-in hand. If that person ends up with the better hand then you have just allowed them to live. You may very well regret this later when this person takes you out of the tournament! When someone is all-in, the more callers they have means the more likelihood they are walking away from the table. This trumps any possibility of short term gains in a side pot.
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 1
      It was a humbling close to the season for DUSHEE, who did a rotten job predicting bowl outcomes after a pretty good regular season.  DUSHEE did no better picking winners than the quarter in your pocket would have done.  The only solace is, DUSHEE did about as well as Sagarin and SRS at picking winners straight up, although both Sagarin and SRS did quite a bit better against the spread.  And the solace for all was that all the models did significantly better than Vegas did with their opening lines set back in early December.
       
      Here is how the models did:
                  Model       SU   ATS DUSHEE O       19 - 19   20 - 18 DUSHEE XC       18 - 20   18 - 20 Sagarin       19 - 19   27 - 11 SRS       19 - 19   25 - 13 Vegas       15 - 23    
      If you bet using Sagarin or SRS, you made out pretty well during bowl season.  If you used DUSHEE, well, let me reiterate that gambling is a vice and the author does not promote or encourage sports betting of any kind.
       
      Now my high school football coaches, forever wise, once taught me that excuses are like assholes and elbows ... everybody's got them and mine stink.  I'm not sure why my elbows smelled so badly, but I can nonetheless offer a few qualitative reasons for why the bowls are hard to pick. 
       
      One, in the modern era where NFL hopefuls sit out the bowls, it is easy to argue that not all the teams have the same talent level they had when their regular season performance was measured.  One can imagine a way of trying to account for this similar to the WAR metric used in baseball, but ain't nobody got time for that.  West Virginia and Michigan both took pretty big hits to their personnel so it was quite predictable they would underperform compared to the regular season.
       
      Two, is impossible to quantify the motivation teams have going into exhibition games that the CFP has probably made even less relevant than they used to be.  I mean, OBVIOUSLY the SEC was totally not into their games against opponents from all those other slummy conferences ...
       
      All of that said, Sagarin and SRS also were only accounting for regular season performance and they did quite well picking winners against the spread.  But then, DUSHEE did quite well during the regular season.  And DUSHEE has done much better in other bowl seasons.  So I'm going to dismiss this bowl season as a fluke.  Dealers' prerogative ...
       
      Best and Worst Bowl Performances
      Top 6
      59.87 Army vs. Houston
      52.38 Texas A&M vs. NC State
      52.37 Auburn vs. Purdue
      51.88 Clemson vs. Alabama
      51.38 Utah State vs. N. Texas
      49.09 Clemson vs. Notre Dame
       
      I posted the top 6 just to show how friggin' impressive Clemson was in the two playoff games, averaging 50 point better than an average team against, supposedly, two of the four best teams in the country.
       
      Bottom 3
      -46.27 Purdue vs. Auburn
      -43.17 Houston vs. Army
      -39.03 Temple vs. Duke
       
      Conference Ratings
      The Big XII-II leapt back over the B1G as the second best conference in college football, after what was by all accounts a pretty mediocre year for the conference.  Despite the relatively poor bowl showing, the SEC is still well ahead of everybody else.  The only reason why the ACC had a positive number was because Clemson was in the conference, otherwise the conference only marginally better than the MWC.
       
      And the American ends up behind the Mountain West as the best "Group of 5."  Please change your marketing campaign, American Athletic Conference ...
       
      SEC 10.19 B12 3.94 B10 3.58 ACC 1.41 P12 0.65 MWC -2.60 AAC -4.87 CUSA -5.98 SBC -6.41 MAC -6.43  
      Final Overall Ratings
      Post-Bowl Final Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Clemson  35.47 262.13 36.32 1 2.11 2 Alabama  33.01 259.46 34.55 -1 -2.44 3 Georgia  22.37 165.34 22.91 0 -3.11 4 Michigan  18.94 183.43 21.49 0 -2.84 5 Oklahoma  19.63 157.55 20.71 0 0.07 6 Mississippi St.  17.35 157.05 19.16 0 -0.03 7 Ohio St.  16.89 141.68 18.11 0 -1.02 8 Texas A&M  15.46 160.18 18.05 4 2.57 9 Utah St.  19.53 75.39 16.67 12 3.23 10 LSU  15.13 115.89 15.69 8 1.91 11 Notre Dame  15.97 98.58 15.41 -2 -1.63 12 Boise St.  15.15 106.73 15.26 1 -0.01 13 Fresno St.  16.65 85.75 15.24 1 -0.03 14 Penn St.  15.47 96.83 15.00 -3 -0.87 15 UCF  17.93 61.56 14.93 -7 -3.38 16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 1 0.71 17 Missouri  13.59 106.57 14.21 -7 -2.44 18 Army  14.97 79.70 13.84 10 4.33 19 West Virginia  12.96 93.55 13.16 -4 -1.68 20 Iowa  14.37 73.48 13.13 -1 -0.46 21 Cincinnati  11.90 97.98 12.67 -5 -1.89 22 Ohio  12.81 84.73 12.63 1 0.57 23 Washington  11.03 105.02 12.43 1 0.43 24 Florida  12.27 78.59 11.98 3 1.39 25 Washington St.  11.78 79.28 11.68 -5 -1.84 26 Auburn  12.69 57.28 11.23 4 3.19 27 Utah  9.90 66.97 9.84 -2 -1.84 28 Wisconsin  7.27 82.38 8.83 7 2.21 29 N.C. State  7.83 72.62 8.73 -7 -3.45 30 Texas  8.67 41.63 7.80 4 1.06 31 Kentucky  9.29 30.33 7.66 0 -0.32 32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 4 1.18 33 Syracuse  8.23 23.92 6.64 5 0.63 34 Iowa St.  6.97 37.11 6.44 7 0.97 35 Temple  7.01 25.27 5.89 -9 -5.33 36 BYU  4.47 58.39 5.80 10 1.77 37 Michigan St.  4.60 54.94 5.72 0 -0.36 38 Miami (FL)  4.67 53.72 5.71 -9 -2.51 39 Oklahoma St.  5.20 30.41 4.94 4 0.10 40 Buffalo  4.72 36.44 4.91 -1 -1.08 41 North Texas  4.08 45.21 4.90 -9 -2.13 42 Virginia  4.08 20.27 3.70 16 1.63 43 Florida Atlantic  -0.01 72.62 3.50 2 -0.88 44 Marshall  2.80 33.07 3.46 7 0.45 45 South Carolina  4.16 7.72 3.15 -5 -2.41 46 Purdue  3.48 12.33 2.91 -13 -4.10 47 Memphis  3.20 13.44 2.78 -5 -2.20 48 Middle Tenn. St.  2.13 23.66 2.56 -1 -1.03 49 Oregon  3.67 0.85 2.49 -1 -1.09 50 Arizona St.  3.30 5.87 2.48 2 -0.49 51 Arkansas St.  0.04 50.07 2.45 2 -0.08 52 Minnesota  3.33 3.47 2.39 13 1.40 53 Air Force  0.85 32.07 2.12 6 0.26 54 Stanford  5.48 -32.83 2.07 -10 -2.38 55 Pittsburgh  2.35 8.36 1.97 1 -0.26 56 Southern Miss  -1.09 54.96 1.93 7 0.40 57 Miami (OH)  2.31 7.75 1.91 3 0.11 58 Nebraska  -0.77 45.03 1.67 -1 -0.55 59 Texas Tech  1.51 12.97 1.64 -5 -0.78 60 Troy  2.27 1.76 1.60 8 1.28 61 Duke  2.30 -11.77 0.96 23 4.32 62 Georgia Tech  0.33 14.09 0.90 -12 -2.20 63 Vanderbilt  3.22 -26.28 0.88 -14 -2.32 64 Boston Coll.  2.76 -21.81 0.79 -9 -1.50 65 Northwestern  2.93 -27.52 0.62 2 0.26 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 5 0.50 67 Toledo  3.02 -31.75 0.48 -5 -1.16 68 TCU  -0.96 22.43 0.45 -2 -0.27 69 Maryland  1.26 -8.90 0.41 -5 -0.74 70 Mississippi  -3.70 49.63 -0.07 0 -0.12 71 Arizona  -4.60 50.71 -0.62 -2 -0.81 72 Wyoming  -1.23 2.89 -0.68 1 -0.22 73 East. Michigan  -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 -1 -0.84 74 Florida Intl.  0.20 -31.34 -1.38 4 0.55 75 USC  -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 -1 -0.77 76 San Diego St.  -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 -1 -1.18 77 Nevada  -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 0 -0.57 78 Houston  -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 -17 -4.15 79 Baylor  -4.33 9.21 -2.44 6 1.07 80 California  -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 -1 -0.49 81 Wake Forest  -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 8 1.67 82 Tulane  -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 5 1.20 83 Northern Illinois  -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 -7 -1.35 84 Indiana  -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 -4 -0.65 85 UCLA  -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 -3 -0.74 86 Louisiana Tech  -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 5 1.63 87 Colorado  -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 -1 -0.49 88 Kansas St.  -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 0 -0.29 89 Virginia Tech  -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 3 1.41 90 LA Lafayette  -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 -9 -2.48 91 Tennessee  -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 -1 -0.82 92 W. Michigan  -9.27 12.76 -5.56 -9 -2.42 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 1 -0.03 94 Florida St.  -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 -1 -1.06 95 North Carolina  -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 4 -0.34 96 Kansas  -7.64 -78.21 -8.88 4 -0.17 97 Hawaii  -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 0 -0.87 98 South Florida  -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 -3 -1.68 99 LA Monroe  -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 2 0.24 100 Navy  -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 -2 -1.18 101 SMU  -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 -5 -1.56 102 Ball St.  -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 0 -0.75 103 Arkansas  -13.51 -50.63 -11.46 0 -0.40 104 Tulsa  -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 1 -0.80 105 West. Kentucky  -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 2 0.37 106 East Carolina  -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 -2 -1.66 107 Colorado St.  -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 -1 0.13 108 UNLV  -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 0 -0.21 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 3 0.68 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 -1 -0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 0 -0.51 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 -2 -0.85 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 1 0.06 114 New Mexico  -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 2 0.22 115 Akron  -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 -2 -0.35 116 Rutgers  -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 -1 -0.32 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 0 -0.12 118 Illinois  -18.82 -128.23 -18.75 0 -0.23 119 Cent. Michigan  -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 0 -0.63 120 Bowling Green  -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 0 -0.55 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68 0 -0.03 122 Kent St.  -20.51 -134.36 -20.17 0 -0.21 123 San Jose St.  -17.05 -190.29 -20.57 2 0.05 124 UTEP  -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 0 -0.31 125 Oregon St.  -21.26 -140.68 -20.98 -2 -0.67 126 Rice  -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 1 -0.37 127 Louisville  -24.13 -131.13 -22.43 -1 -0.87 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37 0 0.09 129 New Mexico St.  -23.98 -154.79 -23.47 0 0.52 130 Connecticut  -32.24 -274.71 -34.78 0 -0.90  
      By Conference
      AAC
      15 UCF  17.93 61.56 14.93 21 Cincinnati  11.90 97.98 12.67 35 Temple  7.01 25.27 5.89 47 Memphis  3.20 13.44 2.78 78 Houston  -0.92 -36.67 -2.39 82 Tulane  -3.45 -10.41 -2.81 98 South Florida  -9.38 -61.55 -9.23 100 Navy  -7.57 -90.52 -9.43 101 SMU  -8.19 -85.39 -9.59 104 Tulsa  -12.64 -98.23 -13.18 106 East Carolina  -16.70 -45.95 -13.35 130 Connecticut  -32.24 -274.71 -34.78  
      ACC
      1 Clemson  35.47 262.13 36.32 29 N.C. State  7.83 72.62 8.73 33 Syracuse  8.23 23.92 6.64 38 Miami (FL)  4.67 53.72 5.71 42 Virginia  4.08 20.27 3.70 55 Pittsburgh  2.35 8.36 1.97 61 Duke  2.30 -11.77 0.96 62 Georgia Tech  0.33 14.09 0.90 64 Boston Coll.  2.76 -21.81 0.79 81 Wake Forest  -2.22 -23.85 -2.64 89 Virginia Tech  -4.52 -32.81 -4.60 94 Florida St.  -8.60 -37.17 -7.53 95 North Carolina  -10.82 -33.00 -8.81 127 Louisville  -24.13 -131.13 -22.43  
      B1G
      4 Michigan  18.94 183.43 21.49 7 Ohio St.  16.89 141.68 18.11 14 Penn St.  15.47 96.83 15.00 20 Iowa  14.37 73.48 13.13 28 Wisconsin  7.27 82.38 8.83 37 Michigan St.  4.60 54.94 5.72 46 Purdue  3.48 12.33 2.91 52 Minnesota  3.33 3.47 2.39 58 Nebraska  -0.77 45.03 1.67 65 Northwestern  2.93 -27.52 0.62 69 Maryland  1.26 -8.90 0.41 84 Indiana  -4.38 -5.50 -3.19 116 Rutgers  -17.66 -133.64 -18.23 118 Illinois  -18.82 -128.23 -18.75  
      BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  19.63 157.55 20.71 19 West Virginia  12.96 93.55 13.16 30 Texas  8.67 41.63 7.80 34 Iowa St.  6.97 37.11 6.44 39 Oklahoma St.  5.20 30.41 4.94 59 Texas Tech  1.51 12.97 1.64 68 TCU  -0.96 22.43 0.45 79 Baylor  -4.33 9.21 -2.44 88 Kansas St.  -1.90 -64.13 -4.37 96 Kansas  -7.64 -78.21 -8.88  
      CUSA
      32 UAB 5.97 68.35 7.28 41 North Texas  4.08 45.21 4.90 43 Florida Atlantic  -0.01 72.62 3.50 44 Marshall  2.80 33.07 3.46 48 Middle Tenn. St.  2.13 23.66 2.56 56 Southern Miss  -1.09 54.96 1.93 74 Florida Intl.  0.20 -31.34 -1.38 86 Louisiana Tech  -5.24 -0.94 -3.54 93 UNC-Charlotte -9.03 -10.65 -6.54 105 West. Kentucky  -13.14 -94.54 -13.33 111 Old Dominion -16.90 -95.55 -15.88 124 UTEP  -21.31 -136.87 -20.83 126 Rice  -21.77 -163.45 -22.41 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -209.07 -23.37  
      Indies
      11 Notre Dame  15.97 98.58 15.41 18 Army  14.97 79.70 13.84 36 BYU  4.47 58.39 5.80 109 Liberty -13.31 -121.99 -14.77 113 Massachusetts -17.91 -118.54 -17.67 129 New Mexico St.  -23.98 -154.79 -23.47  
      MAC
      22 Ohio  12.81 84.73 12.63 40 Buffalo  4.72 36.44 4.91 57 Miami (OH)  2.31 7.75 1.91 67 Toledo  3.02 -31.75 0.48 73 East. Michigan  -0.07 -15.96 -0.82 83 Northern Illinois  -1.79 -33.65 -2.82 92 W. Michigan  -9.27 12.76 -5.56 102 Ball St.  -10.36 -85.40 -11.04 115 Akron  -15.20 -159.55 -17.85 119 Cent. Michigan  -19.07 -137.17 -19.34 120 Bowling Green  -20.79 -116.78 -19.51 122 Kent St.  -20.51 -134.36 -20.17  
      MWC
      9 Utah St.  19.53 75.39 16.67 12 Boise St.  15.15 106.73 15.26 13 Fresno St.  16.65 85.75 15.24 53 Air Force  0.85 32.07 2.12 72 Wyoming  -1.23 2.89 -0.68 76 San Diego St.  -2.08 -14.21 -2.08 77 Nevada  -2.90 -7.62 -2.30 97 Hawaii  -8.45 -69.25 -8.98 107 Colorado St.  -16.25 -54.51 -13.47 108 UNLV  -13.93 -109.27 -14.57 114 New Mexico  -14.33 -170.05 -17.78 123 San Jose St.  -17.05 -190.29 -20.57  
      P12
      23 Washington  11.03 105.02 12.43 25 Washington St.  11.78 79.28 11.68 27 Utah  9.90 66.97 9.84 49 Oregon  3.67 0.85 2.49 50 Arizona St.  3.30 5.87 2.48 54 Stanford  5.48 -32.83 2.07 71 Arizona  -4.60 50.71 -0.62 75 USC  -1.54 -10.27 -1.52 80 California  -2.35 -20.69 -2.57 85 UCLA  -4.24 -12.64 -3.44 87 Colorado  -5.83 -4.53 -4.10 125 Oregon St.  -21.26 -140.68 -20.98  
      SBC
      16 Appalachian State 15.92 88.73 14.90 51 Arkansas St.  0.04 50.07 2.45 60 Troy  2.27 1.76 1.60 66 Georgia Southern 4.13 -46.29 0.52 90 LA Lafayette  -5.78 -27.09 -5.17 99 LA Monroe  -10.52 -47.43 -9.31 110 Coastal Carolina -13.48 -121.23 -14.85 112 Georgia State -15.65 -115.36 -16.01 117 Texas St. -17.86 -138.34 -18.60 121 South Alabama -20.30 -127.04 -19.68  
      SEC
      2 Alabama  33.01 259.46 34.55 3 Georgia  22.37 165.34 22.91 6 Mississippi St.  17.35 157.05 19.16 8 Texas A&M  15.46 160.18 18.05 10 LSU  15.13 115.89 15.69 17 Missouri  13.59 106.57 14.21 24 Florida  12.27 78.59 11.98 26 Auburn  12.69 57.28 11.23 31 Kentucky  9.29 30.33 7.66 45 South Carolina  4.16 7.72 3.15 63 Vanderbilt  3.22 -26.28 0.88 70 Mississippi  -3.70 49.63 -0.07 91 Tennessee  -4.90 -42.55 -5.32 103 Arkansas  -13.51 -50.63 -11.46  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 2
      Army-Navy has been played, closing out the 2018 regular season.  Not to be Debbie Downer, but it has been a turd of a season, both as a TCU fan and a college football fan.  The Frogs, albeit showing some guts in getting through Baylor and Oklahoma State to get to the Cheez-It, had a disappointing season.  Alabama and Clemson are, for the 15th year in a row, the odds on favorites to make the NC game and the underdog challengers are two of the usuals themselves.  Same old, same old.  I don't think UCF is one of the 4 best teams in the country, but I'd be a hell of a lot more interested in the CFP if they were in the tournament.
       
      But luckily for all you TFH subscribers, you have DUSHEE to keep you keen and interested.
       
      None of the Top 12 moved in the rankings.  The gap tightened between Bama and Clemson, now with less than 3-points separating the top two teams.  NC-State fans can shelter from their Snowmageddon warmed by the solace that they rose the most in the rankings this week, riding their 55-point blowout of East Carolina to an 8-spot and over 4-point rise in DUSHEE to get back into the top 25.  ECU, conversely, experienced the largest drop, falling 10 spots and 4.5 points. 
       
      UConn sealed the bottom spot, almost 10 points worse than New Mexico State.  To give you a sense of how bad UConn was this year, their TOP rated DUSHEE performance all season was in Week 1 in a 39-point loss to UCF.  They earned a -16.15 DUSHEE score for that performance.  And that was as good as they did all year.
       
      TCU's week-to-week hasn't really changed much since I posted their numbers in the Week 13 blog post (Ohio State went up a little, UT and OU went down a little), and Cal's numbers are in the Bowl Preview.
       
      So we'll jump to the Best and Worst Performers.
       
      It is a pretty rare circumstance for the loser of a game to wind up in the top performers for the week, but Georgia did that in earning a 34.15 DUSHEE score while losing to Alabama by a TD.  It is not all that uncommon for a losing team to get a better score than a winning team; generally happening when a bad team keeps a game close against a good team.  I know this is a hard concept for many to wrap their brains around when in the traditional AP poll mindset ... the team that loses must drop!  But the goal of DUSHEE is to measure the relative strength of the teams, so if a good team goes into a game, say, 13 points better than another team, but only beats them by 7, that is an indication that the gap between those two teams isn't as large as was originally thought.  And that is what happened in the Georgia-Alabama game.  Georgia went in as a 13-point underdog (per DUSHEE) against the best team in the country.  They lost to that team by 7 and outgained them by almost 60. 
       
      And that is the big flaw in the AP poll.  When two teams who are close to each other in the rankings play a close game, there is no reason to change their rankings relative to each other.  That is an indication that you had them ranked correctly to begin with.  There is no need to punish the loser by dropping them in the rankings.  Statistically, the teams were about even.  So despite losing, Georgia crept closer to Alabama, closing their gap with the Tide by a little more than 2 points.
       
      Championship Week Top 3 Performers
      55.96 -- NC State vs. ECU (55 MOV, 544 YM)
      34.15 -- Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 MOV, 59 YM)
      29.99 -- Clemson vs. Pitt (32 MOV, 229 YM)
       
      Championship Week Bottom 3 Performers
      -54.55 ECU at NCSU (-55 MOV, -544 YM)
      -24.20 Akron at South Carolina (-25 MOV, -134 YM)
      -20.51 Marshall at VaTech (-21 MOV, 16 YM)
       
      And since we are in year-end mode, let's track down the top and bottom 10 performances for the whole year. 
       
      2018 Season Top 10
      63.66 - Clemson at Wake (60 MOV, 449 YM) (Week 6)
      55.96 - NC State vs. E. Carolina (55 MOV, 544 YM) (Week 14)
      53.97 - Ohio vs. Buffalo (35 MOV, 364 YM) (Week 12)
      53.84 - Oklahoma vs. Fla. Atlantic (49 MOV, 326 YM) (Week 1)
      53.38 - Alabama vs. Arkansas St. (50 MOV, 208 YM) (Week 2)
      52.38 - Alabama at Mississippi (55 MOV, 269 YM) (Week 3)
      51.54 - Michigan vs. Penn St. (35 MOV, 219 YM) (Week 10)
      51.43 - Mississippi vs. La-Monroe (49 MOV, 399 YM) (Week 6)
      51.42 - Alabama vs. Missouri (29 MOV, 352 YM) (Week 7)
      50.54 - Clemson vs. Ga. Southern (31 MOV, 455 YM) (Week 3)
       
      2018 Season Bottom 10
      -62.98 UNLV vs. New Mexico (-36 MOV, -336 YM) (Week 6)
      -59.78 La-Monroe at Mississippi (-49 MOV, -399 YM) (Week 6)
      -58.71 UConn at E. Carolina (-34 MOV, -383 YM) (Week 12)
      -57.87 UConn at Boise St. (-55 MOV, -629 YM) (Week 2)
      -57.81 Liberty at Auburn (-53 MOV, -397 YM) (Week 12)
      -57.46 Old Dominion at Liberty (-42 MOV, -290) (Week 1)
      -56.58 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM) (Week 13)
      -54.55 E. Carolina at NC State (-55 MOV, -544 YM) (Week 14)
      -53.82 Texas St. at Rutgers (-28 MOV, -247 YM) (Week 1)
      -52.84 Rutgers at Kansas (-41 MOV, -270 YM) (Week 3)
       
      Overall Ratings
      Regular Season Final     Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  36.16 265.88 36.99 0 -1.30 2 Clemson  33.17 249.73 34.21 0 0.26 3 Georgia  25.54 185.56 26.02 0 0.91 4 Michigan  21.99 199.80 24.34 0 -0.14 5 Oklahoma  19.62 155.95 20.64 0 -0.41 6 Mississippi St.  18.01 148.26 19.19 0 -0.36 7 Ohio St.  17.57 153.04 19.13 0 0.33 8 UCF  20.28 98.78 18.30 0 -0.20 9 Notre Dame  17.32 113.45 17.04 0 -0.21 10 Missouri  16.75 113.10 16.65 0 -0.53 11 Penn St.  16.80 96.26 15.87 0 -0.35 12 Texas A&M  12.83 143.03 15.48 0 -0.25 13 Boise St.  15.06 108.02 15.27 2 0.13 14 Fresno St.  16.86 83.18 15.27 -1 -0.22 15 West Virginia  15.01 99.66 14.84 2 -0.22 16 Cincinnati  13.53 114.34 14.56 0 -0.58 17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 -3 -1.10 18 LSU  14.17 89.52 13.78 0 -0.51 19 Iowa  14.34 83.19 13.59 0 -0.16 20 Washington St.  12.64 105.29 13.53 0 -0.19 21 Utah St.  16.49 50.55 13.44 0 -0.11 22 N.C. State  11.35 95.12 12.17 8 4.15 23 Ohio  12.04 83.43 12.07 0 -0.20 24 Washington  10.97 96.78 12.00 1 0.52 25 Utah  12.05 75.17 11.68 -3 -1.06 26 Temple  11.81 69.03 11.22 -2 -0.66 27 Florida  10.67 71.65 10.59 0 0.01 28 Army  10.30 54.54 9.51 -2 -1.83 29 Miami (FL)  7.45 67.37 8.23 0 -0.09 30 Auburn  9.75 31.94 8.05 -2 -0.49 31 Kentucky  9.24 37.67 7.99 0 0.02 32 North Texas  5.99 62.68 7.03 1 -0.13 33 Purdue  7.40 43.03 7.02 -1 -0.16 34 Texas  7.86 31.00 6.74 1 -0.12 35 Wisconsin  5.05 67.14 6.62 1 -0.16 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 1 -0.63 37 Michigan St.  5.34 52.01 6.08 1 -0.13 38 Syracuse  7.26 24.38 6.02 1 0.22 39 Buffalo  5.67 45.55 5.98 -5 -1.05 40 South Carolina  6.74 21.90 5.55 2 0.20 41 Iowa St.  6.93 17.59 5.47 -1 -0.27 42 Memphis  4.87 35.71 4.98 -1 -0.59 43 Oklahoma St.  4.46 38.56 4.84 0 -0.33 44 Stanford  7.44 -10.58 4.45 1 -0.18 45 Florida Atlantic  0.92 77.85 4.38 1 -0.24 46 BYU  2.80 44.73 4.04 1 -0.27 47 Middle Tenn. St.  3.78 22.12 3.59 3 0.38 48 Oregon  4.30 14.64 3.58 0 -0.19 49 Vanderbilt  5.72 -12.73 3.20 2 0.05 50 Georgia Tech  2.66 27.52 3.10 -1 -0.26 51 Marshall  2.50 27.90 3.02 -7 -1.78 52 Arizona St.  3.57 12.37 2.98 0 -0.14 53 Arkansas St.  1.11 37.01 2.53 0 -0.40 54 Texas Tech  2.39 16.94 2.41 0 -0.19 55 Boston Coll.  4.24 -11.06 2.29 7 0.69 56 Pittsburgh  2.95 5.45 2.23 1 -0.06 57 Nebraska  -0.34 50.34 2.21 -1 -0.15 58 Virginia  2.29 11.10 2.07 5 0.46 59 Air Force  0.49 31.57 1.86 0 -0.12 60 Miami (OH)  2.12 8.06 1.80 -2 -0.35 61 Houston  3.50 -11.79 1.76 -6 -0.69 62 Toledo  3.85 -19.18 1.64 -1 -0.20 63 Southern Miss  -1.42 51.01 1.53 -3 -0.33 64 Maryland  1.99 -3.64 1.15 1 -0.11 65 Minnesota  1.67 -2.49 0.99 -1 -0.29 66 TCU  -0.84 26.43 0.72 0 -0.15 67 Northwestern  2.21 -22.92 0.36 0 -0.45 68 Troy  1.09 -8.41 0.32 0 -0.25 69 Arizona  -3.90 57.62 0.19 0 -0.20 70 Mississippi  -3.37 47.31 0.05 2 -0.05 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 0 -0.12 72 East. Michigan  0.15 -1.70 0.02 -2 -0.18 73 Wyoming  -1.03 4.54 -0.47 0 -0.25 74 USC  -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 0 -0.25 75 San Diego St.  -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 0 -0.23 76 Northern Illinois  -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 3 0.89 77 Nevada  -3.26 9.03 -1.73 -1 -0.27 78 Florida Intl.  -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 -1 -0.18 79 California  -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 -1 -0.18 80 Indiana  -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 1 0.03 81 LA Lafayette  -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 6 0.87 82 UCLA  -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 -2 -0.33 83 W. Michigan  -7.03 31.77 -3.15 0 0.03 84 Duke  -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 -2 -0.27 85 Baylor  -5.51 3.40 -3.51 0 -0.17 86 Colorado  -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 0 -0.18 87 Tulane  -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 -3 -0.78 88 Kansas St.  -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 0 -0.16 89 Wake Forest  -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 1 0.28 90 Tennessee  -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 -1 -0.24 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 0 -0.10 92 Virginia Tech  -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 6 2.35 93 Florida St.  -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 2 0.74 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 -2 -0.36 95 South Florida  -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 -2 -0.53 96 SMU  -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 0 -0.20 97 Hawaii  -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 0 -0.12 98 Navy  -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 3 0.68 99 North Carolina  -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 0 -0.09 100 Kansas  -7.39 -77.96 -8.70 0 -0.18 101 LA Monroe  -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 1 -0.02 102 Ball St.  -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 1 0.04 103 Arkansas  -12.82 -51.70 -11.05 1 -0.28 104 East Carolina  -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 -10 -4.58 105 Tulsa  -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 0 -0.28 106 Colorado St.  -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 0 -0.10 107 West. Kentucky  -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 0 -0.16 108 UNLV  -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 0 -0.13 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 0 0.00 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 1 0.22 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 -1 -0.45 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 0 -0.01 113 Akron  -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 0 -0.90 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 0 -0.17 115 Rutgers  -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 0 -0.18 116 New Mexico  -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 0 -0.24 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 1 -0.09 118 Illinois  -18.66 -125.56 -18.52 -1 -0.17 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 0 -0.13 120 Bowling Green  -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 0 -0.17 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65 0 -0.32 122 Kent St.  -20.27 -132.98 -19.96 0 -0.14 123 Oregon St.  -20.91 -131.45 -20.30 0 0.14 124 UTEP  -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 0 -0.07 125 San Jose St.  -17.27 -187.97 -20.62 0 -0.13 126 Louisville  -23.28 -124.69 -21.56 0 0.27 127 Rice  -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 0 -0.07 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47 0 -0.20 129 New Mexico St.  -24.55 -157.34 -23.99 0 0.01 130 Connecticut  -31.53 -265.40 -33.88 0 -0.74  
      By Conference
      AAC
      8 UCF  20.28 98.78 18.30 16 Cincinnati  13.53 114.34 14.56 26 Temple  11.81 69.03 11.22 42 Memphis  4.87 35.71 4.98 61 Houston  3.50 -11.79 1.76 87 Tulane  -4.21 -24.74 -4.01 95 South Florida  -7.77 -48.87 -7.55 96 SMU  -6.68 -73.89 -8.03 98 Navy  -6.57 -79.94 -8.25 104 East Carolina  -15.16 -32.76 -11.70 105 Tulsa  -11.75 -93.75 -12.37 130 Connecticut  -31.53 -265.40 -33.88  
      ACC
      2 Clemson  33.17 249.73 34.21 22 N.C. State  11.35 95.12 12.17 29 Miami (FL)  7.45 67.37 8.23 38 Syracuse  7.26 24.38 6.02 50 Georgia Tech  2.66 27.52 3.10 55 Boston Coll.  4.24 -11.06 2.29 56 Pittsburgh  2.95 5.45 2.23 58 Virginia  2.29 11.10 2.07 84 Duke  -1.51 -48.52 -3.36 89 Wake Forest  -3.23 -44.28 -4.30 92 Virginia Tech  -5.72 -45.49 -6.02 93 Florida St.  -7.66 -28.17 -6.47 99 North Carolina  -10.42 -31.50 -8.47 126 Louisville  -23.28 -124.69 -21.56  
      B1G
      4 Michigan  21.99 199.80 24.34 7 Ohio St.  17.57 153.04 19.13 11 Penn St.  16.80 96.26 15.87 19 Iowa  14.34 83.19 13.59 33 Purdue  7.40 43.03 7.02 35 Wisconsin  5.05 67.14 6.62 37 Michigan St.  5.34 52.01 6.08 57 Nebraska  -0.34 50.34 2.21 64 Maryland  1.99 -3.64 1.15 65 Minnesota  1.67 -2.49 0.99 67 Northwestern  2.21 -22.92 0.36 80 Indiana  -3.72 -1.17 -2.54 115 Rutgers  -17.30 -131.61 -17.91 118 Illinois  -18.66 -125.56 -18.52  
      BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  19.62 155.95 20.64 15 West Virginia  15.01 99.66 14.84 34 Texas  7.86 31.00 6.74 41 Iowa St.  6.93 17.59 5.47 43 Oklahoma St.  4.46 38.56 4.84 54 Texas Tech  2.39 16.94 2.41 66 TCU  -0.84 26.43 0.72 85 Baylor  -5.51 3.40 -3.51 88 Kansas St.  -1.47 -64.02 -4.08 100 Kansas  -7.39 -77.96 -8.70  
      CUSA
      32 North Texas  5.99 62.68 7.03 36 UAB 4.88 58.86 6.10 45 Florida Atlantic  0.92 77.85 4.38 47 Middle Tenn. St.  3.78 22.12 3.59 51 Marshall  2.50 27.90 3.02 63 Southern Miss  -1.42 51.01 1.53 78 Florida Intl.  -0.15 -37.79 -1.93 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.29 -20.28 -5.17 94 UNC-Charlotte -8.89 -11.94 -6.50 107 West. Kentucky  -13.37 -99.00 -13.71 111 Old Dominion -16.27 -93.52 -15.38 124 UTEP  -20.88 -136.14 -20.51 127 Rice  -21.15 -163.87 -22.04 128 UT-San Antonio -19.89 -210.67 -23.47  
      Indies
      9 Notre Dame  17.32 113.45 17.04 28 Army  10.30 54.54 9.51 46 BYU  2.80 44.73 4.04 112 Liberty -14.00 -126.36 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.99 -118.56 -17.74 129 New Mexico St.  -24.55 -157.34 -23.99  
      MAC
      23 Ohio  12.04 83.43 12.07 39 Buffalo  5.67 45.55 5.98 60 Miami (OH)  2.12 8.06 1.80 62 Toledo  3.85 -19.18 1.64 72 East. Michigan  0.15 -1.70 0.02 76 Northern Illinois  -0.45 -24.20 -1.47 83 W. Michigan  -7.03 31.77 -3.15 102 Ball St.  -9.71 -78.83 -10.29 113 Akron  -14.78 -157.71 -17.50 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.47 -132.25 -18.72 120 Bowling Green  -20.31 -111.84 -18.96 122 Kent St.  -20.27 -132.98 -19.96  
      MWC
      13 Boise St.  15.06 108.02 15.27 14 Fresno St.  16.86 83.18 15.27 21 Utah St.  16.49 50.55 13.44 59 Air Force  0.49 31.57 1.86 73 Wyoming  -1.03 4.54 -0.47 75 San Diego St.  -0.90 -6.00 -0.89 77 Nevada  -3.26 9.03 -1.73 97 Hawaii  -8.07 -56.48 -8.12 106 Colorado St.  -16.57 -52.72 -13.60 108 UNLV  -13.73 -107.53 -14.36 116 New Mexico  -14.47 -172.44 -18.00 125 San Jose St.  -17.27 -187.97 -20.62  
      P12
      20 Washington St.  12.64 105.29 13.53 24 Washington  10.97 96.78 12.00 25 Utah  12.05 75.17 11.68 44 Stanford  7.44 -10.58 4.45 48 Oregon  4.30 14.64 3.58 52 Arizona St.  3.57 12.37 2.98 69 Arizona  -3.90 57.62 0.19 74 USC  -0.86 -3.67 -0.75 79 California  -1.89 -16.97 -2.08 82 UCLA  -3.50 -7.63 -2.70 86 Colorado  -5.36 -0.83 -3.61 123 Oregon St.  -20.91 -131.45 -20.30  
      SBC
      17 Appalachian State 14.65 91.41 14.19 53 Arkansas St.  1.11 37.01 2.53 68 Troy  1.09 -8.41 0.32 71 Georgia Southern 4.27 -58.39 0.02 81 LA Lafayette  -3.58 -6.27 -2.69 101 LA Monroe  -10.74 -49.29 -9.55 109 Coastal Carolina -13.16 -120.88 -14.63 110 Georgia State -14.80 -109.38 -15.16 117 Texas St. -17.68 -138.18 -18.48 121 South Alabama -20.29 -126.44 -19.65  
      SEC
      1 Alabama  36.16 265.88 36.99 3 Georgia  25.54 185.56 26.02 6 Mississippi St.  18.01 148.26 19.19 10 Missouri  16.75 113.10 16.65 12 Texas A&M  12.83 143.03 15.48 18 LSU  14.17 89.52 13.78 27 Florida  10.67 71.65 10.59 30 Auburn  9.75 31.94 8.05 31 Kentucky  9.24 37.67 7.99 40 South Carolina  6.74 21.90 5.55 49 Vanderbilt  5.72 -12.73 3.20 70 Mississippi  -3.37 47.31 0.05 90 Tennessee  -3.93 -38.75 -4.50 103 Arkansas  -12.82 -51.70 -11.05  
       
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      Let's not dither and pretend there are any other bowl games that matter.  ESPN will try to convince you that there are bigger games, like probably the Orange or maybe the Cotton.  But we all know that there is only one game, one game to rule them all, pitting the alma maters of Ladainian Tomlinson and Aaron Rodgers, Jerry Hughes and Jared Goff, Bob Lilly and Craig Morton, Jim Swink and Joe Kapp, Slingin' Sammy Baugh and Vic Bottari, between two teams with a combined 13 wins ... yes, you heard right, THIRTEEN wins! ... and sponsored by what can only be described as the most iconic brand of highly processed, nominally cheese-based, boxed snack cracker (yes, you heard me Cheese Nips, #$%@ you), the inimitable, the indefatigable, the inestimable ...
       

      I get a little chill running down my spine just seeing that picture.
       
      The state of Arizona hasn't been very good to the Horned Frogs over the last 45 years.  Our two bowl games in the state represent two of the last three bowl losses LRBW2XAPCotYHCGMFP has sustained, the ugly 17-16 loss to Michigan State in the 2012 BW3 Bowl, the painful 17-10 loss to Boise in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.  The Frogs are also 1-3 all time against Arizona schools, although the one win did come in the state of Arizona, another low-scoring win (13-10) in 2003 against the Arizona team that John Mackovic ruined after he ruined UT. 
       
      And you can almost bet the house that this game will be another low scoring contest as both teams have stout defenses and borderline anemic offenses.
       
      Here are Cal's numbers week-to-week:
       
      Opp:     UNC    @ BYU      Ore    |   @ Zona       UCLA      @ OreSt    |   Wash      @ WSU     @ USC   |       Col      Stan
      PD:       -2.20        5.10   -12.40  |     -12.30      -43.09          20.40     |   11.55         8.20          0.09    |      9.90     -6.00
      YD:     -51.30   142.70   -28.10  |    -175.50     -99.18        152.00     |   88.00      -11.00       -82.36   | -125.00      3.10
      DO:       -3.95      10.31    -9.63   |      -16.70     -33.53          20.96     |   11.96          4.93        -3.93    |      0.54     -3.85
      Score: 24-17      21-18   24-42  |       17-24         7-37            49-7     |   12-10        13-19       15-14   |     33-21    13-23
       
      Particularly after Cal's inexplicable blow-out loss to UCLA, their defense was stout, giving up an average of 16 points a game over the last half of the season.  But make no mistake, taken as a whole, Cal has shown very little evidence that they are anything other than an utterly average team.  Their only fairly impressive performances were a blow-out win against a hapless Oregon State and a solid shutdown of the Huskies in Week 9.  They struggled to beat a bad North Carolina team, lost to a bad Arizona team, and were a little lucky to have beaten USC and Colorado late in the year in games where they were significantly outgained.
       
      Of course, the Frogs were pretty damn average most of this season too.
       
      As done last year, I'll compare how DUSHEE, Sagarin (Predictor), and SRS see the bowl matchups as compared to the opening Vegas odds.
       
      When I checked the ESPN site linked above, oddsmakers had the Cheez-It Bowl even, but all the computer models like the Horned Frogs.  Throughout this post DO = DUSHEE Original, DX = DUSHEE Extra Crispy, DA = average of DO and DX, Sag = Sagarin, and SoS is the DUSHEE-based strength of schedule.  Here are the computer numbers for the two teams
       
      Bowl Location   Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Cheez-It Phoenix, AZ   TCU  6-6 0.72 4.49 76.09 3.33 4.52       California  7-5 -2.08 -1.82 73.15 2.34 0.18  
      The Frogs have had a clear advantage in Strength of Schedule, which makes TCU a stronger favorite in the DX model, by almost a TD.  DUSHEE Original and Sagarin like the Frogs by roughly a field goal and SRS likes the Frogs by a point.
       
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS TCU  2.80 TCU  6.31 TCU  4.56 TCU 0 TCU  2.94 TCU  1.0  
      Other Big XII-II Bowls
      It's a bit of a rough slate of games for the Big XII-II.  Only West Virginia is favored based on the starting lines coming out of Vegas and the Frogs are the only other team favored by the computers.  There is a good chance the conference comes out of the bowl season no better than 2-5.
       
      Texas
      It's the Rapey Bears against the Gilded Age Robber Barons in this battle of mediocrity in Houston.  All of the computer models like the Commodores (She's a brick .... house) both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Baylor  6-6 -3.51 -2.34 69.95 2.03 1.47 Vanderbilt  6-6 3.20 7.09 73.31 7.85 6.38  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Vanderbilt  6.71 Vanderbilt  9.42 Vanderbilt  8.07 Vanderbilt  2.5 Vanderbilt  3.36 Vanderbilt  5.8  
      Camping World
      West Virginia is the clear favorite in Disney World against the Sicilian Orangepersons.  Only the SRS metric doesn't like the Mountaineers against the spread.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS West Virginia  8-3 14.84 19.70 85.94 13.73 2.01 Syracuse  9-3 6.02 5.52 77.19 11.08 -0.90  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS West Virginia  8.82 West Virginia  14.19 West Virginia  11.50 West Virginia  7 West Virginia  8.75 West Virginia  2.7  
      Alamo
      The location of many a furious and historic Frog comeback sees the return of the dread pirate Mike Leach against an Iowa State team that faded coming down the stretch.  The computer models all agree that the starting line on this game was far too low with DUSHEE and Sagarin both liking the Cougars by more than a touchdown.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Iowa St.  8-4 5.47 4.79 75.62 7.73 2.73 Washington St.  10-2 13.53 14.27 83.46 12.46 -1.45  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Washington St.  8.06 Washington St.  9.48 Washington St.  8.77 Washington St.  1.5 Washington St.  7.84 Washington St.  4.7  
      Liberty
      Another matchup where the computer models think Vegas is being far too generous with the Big XII-II team, all taking the Tigers ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Missouri  8-4 16.65 22.70 84.27 15.19 7.84 Oklahoma St.  6-6 4.84 7.74 78.75 5.52 2.74  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Missouri  11.80 Missouri  14.96 Missouri  13.38 Missouri  4.5 Missouri  5.52 Missouri  9.7  
      NY6 Bowls
       
      Peach
      Everybody likes the Khaki Pants in this one.  Only the SRS would take Flo Rida, barely, ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Florida  9-3 10.59 15.63 82.91 12.20 6.78 Michigan  10-2 24.34 28.24 91.78 19.25 3.06  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Michigan  13.75 Michigan  12.61 Michigan  13.18 Michigan  7.5 Michigan  8.87 Michigan  7.1  
      Fiesta
      The first game in our summary where there is substantial disagreement between the models.  Generally speaking, this most often happens when there is a big difference in strengths of schedule, as is the case this time.  Starting off, Vegas likes LSU a lot, so much so that all the computer models, while disagreeing on the winner SU, all like the Kaniggits ATS.  DUSHEE Original and the SRS like UCF to win the game, DUSHEE XC and Sagarin like the Bayou Bengals.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS LSU  9-3 13.78 19.59 84.00 14.73 7.85 UCF  12-0 18.26 17.77 82.46 16.22 -2.57  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS UCF  4.48 LSU  1.82 UCF  1.33 LSU  10 LSU  1.54 UCF  1.5  
      Rose
      Unanimous agreement that the Buckeyes are both the favorite SU and ATS.  Only about 2.5 points separates the models.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio St.  12-1 19.13 21.49 91.87 18.09 1.07 Washington  10-3 12.00 13.95 86.84 11.84 2.60  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio St.  7.13 Ohio St.  7.54 Ohio St.  7.34 Ohio St.  4 Ohio St.  5.03 Ohio St.  6.3  
      Sugar
      No one thinks this is going to be close.  Sagarin gives a slight edge to the Horns ATS.  DUSHEE thinks UGa wins by three scores, but DUSHEE has been lower on Texas than the general consensus all year.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Georgia  11-2 26.02 33.68 92.68 22.64 7.27 Texas  9-4 6.74 9.12 81.67 9.83 3.18  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Georgia  19.28 Georgia  24.56 Georgia  21.92 Georgia  12.5 Georgia  11.01 Georgia  12.8  
      Cotton
      Neither of the Semi-Finals look to be competitive.  Clemson is a heavy favorite in this matchup.  DUSHEE likes the Tigers by nearly 20, Vegas by 10.5.  Only the SRS likes the Fightin' Rudys ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Clemson  13-0 34.21 37.26 100.01 23.61 0.94 Notre Dame  12-0 17.01 18.18 87.59 19.06 0.30  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Clemson  17.20 Clemson  19.08 Clemson  18.14 Clemson  10.5 Clemson  12.42 Clemson  4.6  
      Orange
      The models are even more unanimous (is that a possible thing, logically?) about the other Semi-Final, although not ATS, where Sagarin and SRS like the Sooners.  For some reason, my gut tells me that the Sooners are going to be better here than all the numbers suggest, but the numbers are clear.  Roll Tide.  Blech.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Alabama  13-0 36.99 42.89 102.68 27.18 5.16 Oklahoma  12-1 20.67 23.30 90.16 17.96 2.94  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Alabama  16.32 Alabama  19.59 Alabama  17.96 Alabama  14 Alabama  12.52 Alabama  9.2  
      Other Bowls of Regional Interest
       
      New Mexico
      The Fightin' Greene Eagles of Denton face off against the former team of technological's new coach, Utah State.  The Aggies are the unanimous favorite but all the computer models like the Mean Green ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS North Texas  9-3 7.03 1.62 66.89 1.68 -8.86 Utah St.  10-2 13.44 10.15 77.65 8.52 -6.54  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Utah St.  6.41 Utah St.  8.53 Utah St.  7.47 Utah St.  11 Utah St.  10.76 Utah St.  6.8  
      Frisco
      The Bowl of Generic Suburban Dallas pits THE Ohio University against the Fightin' Montezuma's of Far Southern California.  Ohio is the unanimous favorite SU and the unanimous choice ATS. 
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Ohio  8-4 12.07 8.04 70.85 4.00 -5.87 San Diego St.  7-5 -0.89 -2.31 65.31 -1.59 -2.09  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Ohio  12.96 Ohio  10.35 Ohio  11.65 Ohio  3 Ohio  5.54 Ohio  5.6  
      Armed Forces
      Played in our Frogs humble home of Amon G. (Patterson) Carter Stadium, the Black Kaniggits of the Hudson have been DUSHEE favorites all year, and true to form, DUSHEE likes the Cadets in this game way more than everybody else.  That said, the computers all agree that Army should be the favorite in the game while Vegas likes Cougar High.  Note that the Army-Navy game is not included in Army's totals as I am writing this before the game has occurred in the space-time continuum.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Army  9-2 11.11 10.61 72.33 6.63 -1.90 Houston  8-4 1.72 -1.70 71.86 3.50 -5.12  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Army  9.40 Army  12.31 Army  10.85 Houston  3 Army  0.47 Army  3.1  
       
      First Responder
      The Smurf Donkeys rebounded from a very bad loss to Oklahoma State early in the year to have a very nice little season, and for that, they get rewarded with a bowl game in the dilapidated Cotton Bowl against a barely .500 ACC team.  A reminder of what life was like as a have-not.  As with Army, DUSHEE likes Boise far more than anybody else, but Boise is still the unanimous favorite over the Fightin' Fluties.  DUSHEE and SRS like the Broncos ATS; Sagarin says to take BC and the points.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Boston Coll.  7-5 2.29 2.94 77.00 4.92 2.07 Boise St.  10-3 15.27 15.43 78.79 8.61 -1.04  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Boise St.  12.98 Boise St.  12.49 Boise St.  12.73 Boise St. 2.5 Boise St.  1.79 Boise St.  3.7  
      Taxslayer
      I guess this is a good bowl?  Seems like agricultural deserves better.  Two of their losses were respectable games against the two inarguably best teams in the country and they had the toughest schedule, per DUSHEE, in all of college football.  NC State was a schizophrenic team this year, looking like maybe a legitimate challenger to Clemson early in the season with impressive wins over a good Marshall team and what then appeared to be a good Virginia team.  Then not so much toward the end of the season as Clemson, Syracuse, and lowly Wake Forest all beat the Wolfpack. 
       
      This game has one of the larger differentials in schedule strength, and as expected, DUSHEE Extra Crispy likes the Ags a lot more than Original, the latter being more in line with Sagarin and SRS.  Agricultural is a unanimous favorite with only Sagarin picking NC State ATS.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Texas A&M  8-4 15.48 23.30 83.06 12.14 10.12 N.C. State  9-3 12.17 9.14 81.22 7.85 -1.82  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Texas A&M  3.31 Texas A&M  14.15 Texas A&M  8.73 Texas A&M  3 Texas A&M  1.84 Texas A&M  4.3  
      Sun
      The Bowl that should hold a soft spot in the heart of every Frog fan this year pits the Frog's bowl opponent from last year against the 7-6 ACC Coastal Division champion.  Pitt's SOS puts them as the favorite per DUSHEE Extra Crispy, but everyone else likes the Trees.  All the models say to take Pitt and the points except for Sagarin who is exactly on the Vegas spread.
       
      Team Record DO DX Sag SRS SoS Pittsburgh  7-6 2.23 7.12 73.61 6.14 6.89 Stanford  8-4 4.45 6.51 82.11 8.05 3.09  
      DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Stanford  2.22 Pittsburgh  0.62 Stanford  0.80 Stanford  8.5 Stanford  8.50 Stanford  1.9  
      All the Rest
       
      Bowl   DO Fav DDO DX Fav DDX DA Fav DUSHEE Avg Vegas Fav Vegas Sag Fav DSag SRS Fav DSRS Cure   LA Lafayette  1.37 LA Lafayette  2.69 LA Lafayette  2.03 Tulane 3.5 Tulane  5.70 LA Lafayette  0.4 Las Vegas   Fresno St.  12.29 Fresno St.  12.46 Fresno St.  12.38 Fresno St.  3.5 Fresno St.  5.66 Fresno St.  6.0 Camellia   East. Michigan  0.01 East. Michigan  1.17 East. Michigan  0.59 East. Michigan 3.5 East. Michigan  0.02 Georgia Southern 3.3 New Orleans   Appalachian State 10.60 Appalachian State 8.89 Appalachian State 9.74 Appalachian State 9 Appalachian State 10.35 Appalachian State 7.2 Boca Raton   UAB 7.57 UAB 6.56 UAB 7.06 Northern Illinois  1 Northern Illinois  0.44 UAB 0.0 Gasparilla   Marshall  10.57 Marshall  11.76 Marshall  11.16 South Florida  2 Marshall  1.57 Marshall  4.3 Bahamas   Toledo  3.57 Toledo  4.90 Toledo  4.24 Toledo  4.5 Toledo  7.75 Toledo  1.8 Idaho Potato   BYU  7.18 BYU  9.20 BYU  8.19 BYU 14 BYU  7.88 BYU  4.8 Birmingham   Memphis  9.23 Memphis  7.32 Memphis  8.28 Memphis  4.5 Memphis  3.24 Memphis  2.1 Dollar General   Buffalo  5.67 Buffalo  7.84 Buffalo  6.75 Buffalo  4 Buffalo  1.21 Buffalo  0.7 Hawaii   Louisiana Tech  2.96 Louisiana Tech  2.85 Louisiana Tech  2.90 Hawaii 2.5 Louisiana Tech  2.97 Hawaii  4.5 Quick Lane   Georgia Tech  2.11 Georgia Tech  0.02 Georgia Tech  1.07 Georgia Tech  3.5 Georgia Tech  3.13 Georgia Tech  1.1 Independence   Temple  14.48 Temple  9.76 Temple  12.12 Temple  5 Temple  1.94 Duke  0.0 Pinstripe   Miami (FL)  1.61 Miami (FL)  1.27 Miami (FL)  1.44 Miami (FL)  2.5 Miami (FL)  1.87 Miami (FL)  2.6 Music City   Auburn  1.03 Auburn  3.03 Auburn  2.03 Auburn  3.5 Auburn  4.48 Auburn  0.5 Belk   South Carolina  3.49 South Carolina  9.77 South Carolina  6.63 South Carolina  3.5 South Carolina  5.83 South Carolina  4.1 Arizona   Arkansas St.  4.27 Arkansas St.  3.16 Arkansas St.  3.71 Arkansas St.  0 Arkansas St.  0.31 Arkansas St.  3.9 Military   Cincinnati  20.56 Cincinnati  19.39 Cincinnati  19.98 Cincinnati  7.5 Cincinnati  5.28 Cincinnati  8.2 Redbox   Michigan St.  2.51 Michigan St.  6.08 Michigan St.  4.29 Oregon  1.5 Michigan St.  0.50 Michigan St.  0.5 Holiday   Utah  11.31 Utah  12.50 Utah  11.91 Utah  8.5 Utah  7.35 Utah  4.7 Outback    Mississippi St.  5.60 Mississippi St.  10.34 Mississippi St.  7.97 Mississippi St.  4 Mississippi St.  1.35 Mississippi St.  0.9 Citrus   Penn St.  7.88 Penn St.  5.90 Penn St.  6.89 Penn St.  7 Penn St.  7.46 Penn St.  1.1  
    • By Duquesne Frog in Numbers Make Me Horned 0
      Before people yell at me about Michigan only dropping one spot to #4 (still in the DUSHEE CFP), note that they had the single largest point drop of anybody in the top 25 (almost 3 points).  It was enough to drop the Wolverines past Georgia, but they had a 6-point cushion on Oklahoma, who was pretty stagnant after ekeing out a win over West Virginia.  Notre Dame actually dropped more in the rankings than Michigan after struggling to beat a very, very average USC team.  The biggest mover in the top 25 was the Bearkats of Cincinnati, jumping 8 spots and almost 4 points after destroying East Carolina.  The larger overall upward mover was Middle Tennessee who pounded what had been a borderline top-25 team, UAB, by 24 points and over 300 yards.  The biggest mover in the wrong direction was easily Duke, who fell 23 spots and over 5.5 points after inexplicably getting blown out by what had been by all counts a really bad Wake Forest team 59-7.
       
      Frogs Week-to-Week
      The Frogs moved up for the second week in a row, 4 spots and 1.4 points to #66.  Just behind the Frogs is B1G West champion Northwestern and only 9 spots ahead is ACC CCG qualifier Pitt (I'm too lazy to look up what the division is called). 
       
      Opp:      @ SMU      N OhSt      @ Tex    |      ISU      Ttech          OU     |   @ Kan      KSU      @ WVU     |     @ Bay      OkSt
      PD:          23.60           6.00        -9.27     |     8.20       -3.50       -8.18   |     -8.20      -2.70       -25.78     |        1.40      10.80
      YD:          78.40       143.55       29.82    | 140.60      26.10  -133.73   |  141.40    -90.40    -244.67      |      24.50    185.60
      Score:     19.53         10.96        -4.74    |   12.28        -1.07    -11.94   |      1.39       -6.18      -29.05     |        2.12       16.20
       
      The Frogs' performance against Okie St was their 2nd best of the season based on DUSHEE score, behind only the SMU game, and was the first time the Frogs looked like a significantly above-average team since the Iowa State game in Week 6.
       
      Wince we don't know the Frogs' next opponent yet, let's move on to ...
       
      Conference Championship Games
      Below is a look at all the conference championship games this weekend.  DUSHEE only thinks 3 are likely to be competitive: the CUSA game between UAB and MTSU is a true toss-up (after giving MTSU the home field advantage (HFA) ... UAB would be favored on a neutral field), the Pac-12 with Utah as a slight favorite, and the MWC where a Boise HFA turns that game from a toss-up to a Boise 3-point advantage.
       
      DUSHEE gives Georgia, Texas, Northwestern, and Memphis all somewhere around a 1-in-4 to 1-in-5 chance.  Pitt is given less than a 10% chance of beating Clemson.
       
      CCG Location Team 1 Rec DUSHEE O Team 2 Rec DUSHEE O DO Fav (Vegas) DDO + HFA Team 1 Chance SEC Atlanta, GA Georgia  11-1 25.11 Alabama  12-0 38.29 Alabama (-10.5) -13.18   27% ACC Charlotte, NC Pittsburgh  7-5 2.29 Clemson  12-0 33.95 Clemson (-23.5) -31.66   9% BXII-II Arlington, TX Texas  9-3 6.85 Oklahoma  11-1 21.04 Oklahoma (-5.5) -14.19   20% P12 Santa Clara, CA Washington  9-3 11.48 Utah  9-3 12.73 Utah (+3) -1.25   47% B1G Indianapolis, IN Northwestern  8-4 0.81 Ohio St.  11-1 18.80 Ohio St. (-13) -17.99   24% AAC Orlando, FL Memphis  8-4 5.57 UCF  11-0 18.50 UCF (-7) -12.93 -16.45 24% CUSA Murfreesboro, TN UAB 9-3 6.73 Middle Tenn. St.  8-4 3.21 UAB (+2.5) -3.52 -0.01 50% MAC Detroit, MI Northern Illinois  7-5  -2.36 Buffalo  10-2 7.04 Buffalo (-4) -9.39   33% MWC Boise, ID Fresno St.  10-2 15.49 Boise St.  10-2 15.14 Fresno St. (+1.5) -0.35 +3.16 44% SBC Boone, NC LA Lafayette  7-5  -3.56 Appalachian State 9-2 15.29 Appalachian State (-17.5) -18.85 -22.37 13%  
      In general, DUSHEE is higher on most of the favorites than Vegas is.  This is particularly true for Oklahoma, where Vegas likes the Sooners by 5.5 and DUSHEE likes them by 14, and UCF, where Vegas likes the Knights by a TD and DUSHEE likes them (with home field) by 16.5.  Vegas favors MTSU in the DUSHEE toss-up CUSA game by 2.5 and favors Washington by 3 when DUSHEE favors the Utes by a point to point-and-a-half.
       
      Only two of the CCGs feature the top two teams in each conference based on their DUSHEE ranking ... the SEC and the MWC.  So, per DUSHEE's assessment, eight out of 10 CCGs are pitting inferior matchups for their respective "championships."
       
      Conference: DUSHEE Rank (Rank in Conference)
      SEC: 1 Alabama (1) vs. 3 Georgia (2)
      ACC: 2 Clemson (1) vs 57 Pitt (6) ... 29 Miami is the 2nd ranked ACC team and would only be a 26-point dog to Clemson
      BXII-II: 5 Oklahoma (1) vs 35 Texas (3) ... 17 West Virginia ranks second and would only be a 6-point dog to OU
      P12: 22 Utah (2) vs 25 Washington (3) ... 20 Washington State ranked 1st, only 2 points separate these 3 teams
      B1G: 7 Ohio St. (2) vs. 67 Northwestern (11) ... 4 Michigan was the top ranked team; 19 Iowa was the top ranked team in the West
      AAC: 8 UCF (1) vs. 41 Memphis (4) ... 16 Cincinnati was the 2nd ranked team in the conference, Memphis was the top ranked team in the West Division
      CUSA: 37 UAB (2) vs 50 MTSU (5) ... 33 North Texas was the top ranked team, 44 Marshall was the top ranked team in the East Division
      MAC: 34 Buffalo (2) vs 79 NIU (5) ... 23 Ohio was the top ranked team, 61 Toledo was the top ranked team in the West Division
      MWC: 13 Fresno (1) vs 15 Boise (2)
      SBC: 14 App St. (1) vs. 87 ULaLa (5) ... 53 Arkansas State was the 2nd ranked team and the top ranked team in the side of the bracket ULaLa was on
       
      Conference Ratings
      Unfortunately, this season, the SEC really was far and away the best conference in college football.  As we have discussed before, there are many ways to judge the "best" conference and pretty much any way you look at it ... SEC.
       
      Top of the conference?  They have 6 teams in the top 20.  The Pac 12 has 1 ... Washington State at #20.  The ACC has 1 ... Clemson ... and their second best team, Miami, is 29th.  The Big XII-II has 2 teams in the top 20, same as the Mountain West.  The B1G has four.
       
      Bottom of the conference?  The SEC had two clearly below average teams, Arkansas and Tennessee.  The ACC had six.  The B1G and Big XII-II both had three.  The Pac 12 has five.
       
      Conference average?  The average SEC team is nearly a TD better than the average B1G or BXII-II team and would be a 9-10 point favorite on a neutral field against the average P12 or ACC team.  The average ACC team is closer to an average Sun Belt team than an average SEC team.
       
      SEC 10.77 B10 4.32 B12 4.15 P12 1.77 ACC 0.82 AAC -2.15 MWC -2.51 MAC -5.51 CUSA -5.62 SBC -6.19  
      Yet another reason why this season has sucked.
       
      Performances of the Week
      Top 3
      48.30 Ohio St. vs. Michigan (23 MOV, 166 YM)
      47.40 Cincinnati vs. ECU (50 MOV, 338 YM)
      45.64 Middle Tennessee St. vs. UAB (24 MOV, 305 YM)
       
      Bottom 3
      -56.59 Duke vs. Wake (-52 MOV, -266 YM)
      -42.17 Louisville vs. Kentucky (-46 MOV, -292 YM)
      -39.58 Central Michigan at Toledo (-38 MOV, -292 YM)
       
      Overall Rankings
        Week 13   Rank Team PD YD Score Rk +/- Score +/- 1 Alabama  37.01 280.91 38.29 0 -0.72 2 Clemson  32.88 248.04 33.95 0 -2.08 3 Georgia  25.14 172.21 25.11 1 1.40 4 Michigan  22.12 200.75 24.48 -1 -2.82 5 Oklahoma  19.91 160.35 21.04 0 -0.43 6 Mississippi St.  18.35 150.92 19.55 0 1.18 7 Ohio St.  17.12 152.37 18.80 4 2.91 8 UCF  20.66 97.49 18.50 1 1.18 9 Notre Dame  17.43 116.20 17.25 -2 -0.89 10 Missouri  17.25 117.16 17.18 3 1.46 11 Penn St.  17.13 99.04 16.22 6 1.64 12 Texas A&M  12.95 146.44 15.73 -4 -1.71 13 Fresno St.  16.93 86.80 15.49 -3 -0.79 14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 4 1.15 15 Boise St.  15.13 104.23 15.14 4 1.02 16 Cincinnati  14.01 119.62 15.14 8 3.79 17 West Virginia  15.23 101.18 15.06 -1 0.29 18 LSU  14.68 93.08 14.30 -4 -1.14 19 Iowa  14.51 84.01 13.75 -4 -1.46 20 Washington St.  12.86 106.15 13.72 -8 -2.10 21 Utah St.  16.63 50.92 13.55 -1 -0.21 22 Utah  12.96 84.43 12.73 -1 -0.90 23 Ohio  12.27 84.20 12.26 -1 -0.20 24 Temple  12.35 75.14 11.88 -1 -0.56 25 Washington  10.65 90.43 11.48 4 2.38 26 Army  12.21 65.97 11.34 -1 0.06 27 Florida  10.68 71.15 10.57 6 1.99 28 Auburn  10.25 35.12 8.53 2 -0.50 29 Miami (FL)  7.46 68.89 8.32 7 0.22 30 N.C. State  8.43 49.70 8.03 -3 -1.81 31 Kentucky  9.31 36.37 7.97 9 1.82 32 Purdue  7.56 44.00 7.18 3 -1.02 33 North Texas  6.06 64.41 7.16 -5 -2.29 34 Buffalo  6.52 55.45 7.04 10 2.10 35 Texas  8.10 29.96 6.85 -1 -1.48 36 Wisconsin  5.20 68.22 6.77 -4 -2.12 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 -11 -3.37 38 Michigan St.  5.47 52.92 6.21 -7 -2.79 39 Syracuse  7.11 21.88 5.80 7 1.76 40 Iowa St.  7.24 18.77 5.74 -2 -1.10 41 Memphis  5.10 44.74 5.57 19 3.15 42 South Carolina  6.24 24.65 5.36 8 1.70 43 Oklahoma St.  4.82 40.35 5.17 -6 -2.11 44 Marshall  5.18 27.66 4.80 8 1.16 45 Stanford  7.29 -4.72 4.63 -6 -1.96 46 Florida Atlantic  1.28 77.64 4.62 -3 -0.51 47 BYU  3.16 45.29 4.30 -2 0.23 48 Oregon  4.52 15.51 3.77 6 0.44 49 Georgia Tech  2.87 29.99 3.37 -7 -2.19 50 Middle Tenn. St.  4.04 10.67 3.21 28 4.94 51 Vanderbilt  5.76 -14.31 3.15 12 1.97 52 Arizona St.  3.68 13.72 3.12 1 -0.52 53 Arkansas St.  1.44 40.64 2.93 11 1.79 54 Texas Tech  2.58 18.21 2.60 -13 -3.12 55 Houston  4.07 -5.45 2.45 -8 -1.53 56 Nebraska  -0.18 51.33 2.37 5 0.41 57 Pittsburgh  3.14 4.06 2.29 -6 -1.35 58 Miami (OH)  2.60 8.77 2.16 9 1.64 59 Air Force  0.65 31.81 1.97 -1 -0.58 60 Southern Miss  -1.06 52.88 1.86 6 1.26 61 Toledo  4.02 -17.45 1.83 13 2.82 62 Boston Coll.  3.57 -15.91 1.61 -6 -1.35 63 Virginia  1.83 7.89 1.60 -15 -2.27 64 Minnesota  1.94 -0.24 1.28 8 2.04 65 Maryland  2.11 -3.14 1.26 -16 -2.44 66 TCU  -0.69 27.38 0.86 4 1.39 67 Northwestern  2.79 -21.58 0.81 -12 -2.46 68 Troy  1.35 -6.84 0.57 3 1.14 69 Arizona  -3.67 58.69 0.40 -1 0.48 70 East. Michigan  0.39 -1.29 0.20 -8 -1.23 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 -2 0.58 72 Mississippi  -3.38 48.55 0.10 -15 -2.70 73 Wyoming  -0.77 6.22 -0.21 6 1.91 74 USC  -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 2 0.79 75 San Diego St.  -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 -10 -1.29 76 Nevada  -2.99 10.84 -1.47 -3 -0.56 77 Florida Intl.  0.15 -38.12 -1.75 8 2.17 78 California  -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 2 0.28 79 Northern Illinois  -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 -4 -1.32 80 UCLA  -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 4 0.64 81 Indiana  -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 1 -0.13 82 Duke  -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 -23 -5.57 83 W. Michigan  -7.04 31.35 -3.17 5 1.01 84 Tulane  -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 -3 -0.85 85 Baylor  -5.34 4.58 -3.34 5 1.23 86 Colorado  -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 -3 -0.48 87 LA Lafayette  -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 4 1.05 88 Kansas St.  -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 -1 0.14 89 Tennessee  -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 -12 -2.59 90 Wake Forest  -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 10 4.45 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 -2 -0.57 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 2 0.30 93 South Florida  -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 0 -0.59 94 East Carolina  -11.77 15.08 -7.12 -8 -3.11 95 Florida St.  -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 -3 -1.61 96 SMU  -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 -1 -0.43 97 Hawaii  -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 7 1.93 98 Virginia Tech  -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 -1 0.41 99 North Carolina  -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 -3 0.23 100 Kansas  -7.21 -76.66 -8.52 -1 0.50 101 Navy  -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 0 0.74 102 LA Monroe  -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 0 0.19 103 Ball St.  -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 0 -0.50 104 Arkansas  -12.59 -49.10 -10.77 -6 -1.99 105 Tulsa  -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 1 0.61 106 Colorado St.  -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 3 0.96 107 West. Kentucky  -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 3 1.39 108 UNLV  -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 4 1.33 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 -4 -2.05 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 -3 -1.39 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 0 0.00 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 -4 -1.22 113 Akron  -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 3 1.69 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 1 -0.21 115 Rutgers  -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 3 0.94 116 New Mexico  -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 -3 -2.09 117 Illinois  -18.49 -124.32 -18.35 5 1.35 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 1 0.69 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 -5 -1.53 120 Bowling Green  -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 -3 -0.47 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33 3 1.81 122 Kent St.  -20.10 -132.29 -19.81 4 2.48 123 Oregon St.  -20.97 -133.21 -20.44 -3 -1.31 124 UTEP  -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 -1 -0.22 125 San Jose St.  -17.14 -186.89 -20.49 0 1.78 126 Louisville  -23.53 -126.58 -21.83 -5 -2.14 127 Rice  -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 0 1.79 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26 1 2.61 129 New Mexico St.  -24.51 -157.90 -24.00 -1 1.56 130 Connecticut  -30.84 -259.36 -33.13 0 -0.30  
      By Conference
      AAC
      8 UCF  20.66 97.49 18.50 16 Cincinnati  14.01 119.62 15.14 24 Temple  12.35 75.14 11.88 41 Memphis  5.10 44.74 5.57 55 Houston  4.07 -5.45 2.45 84 Tulane  -3.62 -16.82 -3.23 93 South Florida  -7.32 -44.13 -7.02 94 East Carolina  -11.77 15.08 -7.12 96 SMU  -6.46 -72.77 -7.83 101 Navy  -7.25 -84.62 -8.93 105 Tulsa  -11.47 -91.78 -12.10 130 Connecticut  -30.84 -259.36 -33.13  
      ACC
      2 Clemson  32.88 248.04 33.95 29 Miami (FL)  7.46 68.89 8.32 30 N.C. State  8.43 49.70 8.03 39 Syracuse  7.11 21.88 5.80 49 Georgia Tech  2.87 29.99 3.37 57 Pittsburgh  3.14 4.06 2.29 62 Boston Coll.  3.57 -15.91 1.61 63 Virginia  1.83 7.89 1.60 82 Duke  -1.30 -45.90 -3.09 90 Wake Forest  -3.45 -47.16 -4.58 95 Florida St.  -8.40 -33.07 -7.21 98 Virginia Tech  -8.85 -50.89 -8.37 99 North Carolina  -10.41 -29.82 -8.39 126 Louisville  -23.53 -126.58 -21.83  
      B1G
      4 Michigan  22.12 200.75 24.48 7 Ohio St.  17.12 152.37 18.80 11 Penn St.  17.13 99.04 16.22 19 Iowa  14.51 84.01 13.75 32 Purdue  7.56 44.00 7.18 36 Wisconsin  5.20 68.22 6.77 38 Michigan St.  5.47 52.92 6.21 56 Nebraska  -0.18 51.33 2.37 64 Minnesota  1.94 -0.24 1.28 65 Maryland  2.11 -3.14 1.26 67 Northwestern  2.79 -21.58 0.81 81 Indiana  -3.75 -1.47 -2.57 115 Rutgers  -17.13 -130.22 -17.73 117 Illinois  -18.49 -124.32 -18.35  
      BXII-II
      5 Oklahoma  19.91 160.35 21.04 17 West Virginia  15.23 101.18 15.06 35 Texas  8.10 29.96 6.85 40 Iowa St.  7.24 18.77 5.74 43 Oklahoma St.  4.82 40.35 5.17 54 Texas Tech  2.58 18.21 2.60 66 TCU  -0.69 27.38 0.86 85 Baylor  -5.34 4.58 -3.34 88 Kansas St.  -1.30 -63.09 -3.93 100 Kansas  -7.21 -76.66 -8.52  
      CUSA
      33 North Texas  6.06 64.41 7.16 37 UAB 4.93 71.02 6.73 44 Marshall  5.18 27.66 4.80 46 Florida Atlantic  1.28 77.64 4.62 50 Middle Tenn. St.  4.04 10.67 3.21 60 Southern Miss  -1.06 52.88 1.86 77 Florida Intl.  0.15 -38.12 -1.75 91 Louisiana Tech  -6.23 -18.80 -5.07 92 UNC-Charlotte -8.52 -9.67 -6.15 107 West. Kentucky  -13.08 -99.60 -13.55 110 Old Dominion -15.89 -89.45 -14.93 124 UTEP  -20.80 -135.60 -20.44 127 Rice  -21.12 -162.66 -21.97 128 UT-San Antonio -19.65 -209.67 -23.26  
      Indies
      9 Notre Dame  17.43 116.20 17.25 26 Army  12.21 65.97 11.34 47 BYU  3.16 45.29 4.30 112 Liberty -13.97 -126.51 -15.45 114 Massachusetts -17.77 -117.85 -17.56 129 New Mexico St.  -24.51 -157.90 -24.00  
      MAC
      23 Ohio  12.27 84.20 12.26 34 Buffalo  6.52 55.45 7.04 58 Miami (OH)  2.60 8.77 2.16 61 Toledo  4.02 -17.45 1.83 70 East. Michigan  0.39 -1.29 0.20 79 Northern Illinois  -1.03 -34.42 -2.36 83 W. Michigan  -7.04 31.35 -3.17 103 Ball St.  -9.73 -79.32 -10.33 113 Akron  -13.51 -156.42 -16.59 119 Cent. Michigan  -18.30 -131.86 -18.59 120 Bowling Green  -20.12 -110.96 -18.79 122 Kent St.  -20.10 -132.29 -19.81  
      MWC
      13 Fresno St.  16.93 86.80 15.49 15 Boise St.  15.13 104.23 15.14 21 Utah St.  16.63 50.92 13.55 59 Air Force  0.65 31.81 1.97 73 Wyoming  -0.77 6.22 -0.21 75 San Diego St.  -0.68 -4.25 -0.66 76 Nevada  -2.99 10.84 -1.47 97 Hawaii  -7.95 -55.62 -8.00 106 Colorado St.  -16.45 -52.28 -13.50 108 UNLV  -13.62 -106.17 -14.23 116 New Mexico  -14.23 -170.76 -17.77 125 San Jose St.  -17.14 -186.89 -20.49  
      P12
      20 Washington St.  12.86 106.15 13.72 22 Utah  12.96 84.43 12.73 25 Washington  10.65 90.43 11.48 45 Stanford  7.29 -4.72 4.63 48 Oregon  4.52 15.51 3.77 52 Arizona St.  3.68 13.72 3.12 69 Arizona  -3.67 58.69 0.40 74 USC  -0.59 -2.22 -0.50 78 California  -1.45 -19.21 -1.90 80 UCLA  -3.16 -5.37 -2.37 86 Colorado  -5.14 -0.16 -3.43 123 Oregon St.  -20.97 -133.21 -20.44  
      SBC
      14 Appalachian State 15.42 103.39 15.29 53 Arkansas St.  1.44 40.64 2.93 68 Troy  1.35 -6.84 0.57 71 Georgia Southern 4.36 -56.98 0.15 87 LA Lafayette  -4.21 -15.62 -3.56 102 LA Monroe  -10.69 -49.65 -9.53 109 Coastal Carolina -13.21 -120.05 -14.63 111 Georgia State -14.95 -111.72 -15.38 118 Texas St. -17.58 -137.42 -18.38 121 South Alabama -19.99 -123.79 -19.33  
      SEC
      1 Alabama  37.01 280.91 38.29 3 Georgia  25.14 172.21 25.11 6 Mississippi St.  18.35 150.92 19.55 10 Missouri  17.25 117.16 17.18 12 Texas A&M  12.95 146.44 15.73 18 LSU  14.68 93.08 14.30 27 Florida  10.68 71.15 10.57 28 Auburn  10.25 35.12 8.53 31 Kentucky  9.31 36.37 7.97 42 South Carolina  6.24 24.65 5.36 51 Vanderbilt  5.76 -14.31 3.15 72 Mississippi  -3.38 48.55 0.10 89 Tennessee  -3.70 -36.87 -4.25 104 Arkansas  -12.59 -49.10 -10.77  
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    • Answer:  False Once a player possesses the ball while grounded, it’s a dead ball.  It is reviewable and in this case would reverse the call and it would be B’s ball, 1/10.  Good job.  Maybe that one was too easy.  😉
    • That first set took over an hour.  Hopefully, Rybo can take the 2nd in the humidity in Iowa City.  Dougaz will serve first.   0-1.  Dougaz not giving up as he holds at love. 1-2.  This set will be tight too. 2-all. 2-3.  Still on serve. 3-all. YES!!  4-3!  Alex breaks at love and takes the lead! 5-3! 6-3!  Rybo breaks again and takes the match 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 to advance to the finals at Iowa City!  He'll play the winner of the other semi between John McNally and Axel Geller tomorrow for the title.
    • “Possesses it on the ground” ends the play, right?  False.
    • -Arrieta gave up 1 run in 5+ against the Pirates last night.  He took a no decision to remain 8-7 on the year but shaved his ERA down to 4.40.  Next scheduled start is next Friday at home against the Braves.   -Cashner's first start with the BoSox didn't go all that well - he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in 5 IP to take the loss.  That drops him to 9-4 on the year and increases his ERA to 4.09.  Next scheduled start is Sunday afternoon against his old team in front of their fans at Camden Yards.   -Carpenter was put back on the 10-day DL, this time after fouling a pitch off his foot.     -Young has really made the most out of what appeared to have been a short-term call up to the D'Backs.  In his three starts, he's 3-0 with an 0.96 ERA and an 0.48 WHIP.  Next scheduled start is Sunday afternoon against the Brew Crew.   -Holaday went 1-3 in his start against the Padres on Wednesday - pushing his current hit streak to 8 and bumping his average up to .314 for the year   -Cron was sent back down to Triple-A Reno by the D'Backs again. 
    • The lack of sufficient food production on site doesn’t surprise me, actually.   Archaeologists discovered one small room in one of the great houses that contained more turquoise ornaments than those found everywhere else in the Ancestral Puebloan world COMBINED.  Shell ornaments from the Pacific coast, macaw feathers (and 14 actual macaws) from central Mexico, lots of copper from Mexico were all shipped in and stored here.  The heavy timbers used for roof and multi-story structures were CARRIED, not dragged, from mountains fifty miles away.   So shipping food in seems like a relatively small obstacle to overcome.     Archaeologists still don’t know what Chaco actually WAS, which is maddening because it contains the largest, most sophisticated constructions in the Ancestral Peuebloan world.  The masonry techniques are incredible.  Walls, windows, and shadowlines are aligned with solstices, equinoxes, and moon phases (of course).   Religious center, storage and distribution center for precious commodities, prehistoric Las Vegas strip, university - all these explanations fit at least part of what they’ve found.  It may well have been all of the above.   It does appear that it was a gathering place for people of different tribes and clans, and the participants probably spoke different languages.  Many modern puebloan oral histories refer to Chaco as “ the place where all the tribes came together.”   I’m blown away by how many man hours and resources were expended to build the place, especially by a hunter-gatherer / dry land farming culture. What in the hell did they DO here that was so important that they went to all that effort?  We walked around the ruins and kept asking ourselves over and over again. No one really knows.  It’s not the answers that make this place fascinating - it’s the questions.     On another note, Chaco is REMOTE.  12 miles of heavily rutted, washboard dirt road is the only access.  You have to really WANT to come out here.  As a result, it is amazingly silent. No sound but wind, birds, and the occasional coyote.  (And totally off-grid.)     Mrs. Turk said, “We’ re coming back here” on the first day.     And of course, since it’s all about the hardware, we both added to our collection:  
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